Racing Insights, Tuesday 27/08/24

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Here are my qualifiers on Tuesday's Shortlist...

...where the first three would certainly be of interest. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...

• 1.40 Musselburgh
• 2.55 Ripon
• 3.40 Musselburgh
• 6.15 Bellewstown

...but to be honest, the days racing is really pooor and I think I'm actually going to swerve the whole lot and just look at the day's highest-rated race.

OK, so that's going to be the 6.25 Stratford, a 6-runner, Class 2, 4yo+ handicap chase over almost 2m3½f on good/good to firm ground. It's not an ideal race to cover, but it's the best on the day and here's the card...

AL ZARAQAAN won four chases on the bounce last summer and won again at Cartmel back in May. Well beaten in two runs since finishing 12th of 13 and 13th of 16, but does drop in class/trip today.

EL BORRACHO last won just over a year ago at Bangor and hasn't tackled a fence since finishing last of 11 back at the same track in May. Since then he has been well beaten in a 2m Flat race and a 2m4f hurdle, but was 3rd of 9 over 1m6f at Haydock earlier this month.

LA DOMANIALE was a course and distance winner here just over two years ago and has only raced seven times since. She won at Aintree in May 2023 and was 3rd of 7 here over C&D a year ago before ending the season as a runner-up at Worcester. her seasonal return saw her just 15th of 16 at Market Rasen, but she's down in class/trip here.

ONEMOREFORTHEROAD won a 2m2f chase at Kempton back in April for a second success inside four outings and was a Kempton runner-up next time out, but has been 6th of 8 and 9th of 13 in two runs since, so much will depend which version of this useful chaser turns up.

ROTTEN ROW had a run of eight defeats between chase wins at Tramore in August 2023 and here at Stratford over 2m4½f in early June on his penultimate outing. Subsequently beaten by nine lengths as fourth home of eleven at Cartmel, a current mark of 118 might be a tad too high for him as he steps up two classes.

GREY SKIES won back to back chases at Sedgefield and Perth in March/April 2023, but has failed to win any of eleven starts since, despite four runner-up finishes and is up in class after a 54 length defeat at Bangor last time out. He has, however, had wind surgery since that run and also wears a tongue-tie for the first time today.

The two-year Instant Expert overview doesn't really push me in any direction, but it does raise queries about bottom weight Grey Skies...

...pretty self-explanatory stuff, of course. Grey Skies doesn't seem suited by the going, El Borracho has the worst Class 2 record, Rotten Row would probably prefer a different trip and he's 7lbs higher than his last win. He has made the frame on one of those three distance defeats and Grey Skies has made the frame twice on this going, but El Borracho is still struggling for class, according to the place stats...

Small field chases over this kind of trip here at Stratford have favoured horses willing to get n with things and set the tempo, which might well be El Borracho's saving grace if recent efforts are anything to go by...

...but he's likely to have company from Onemorefortheroad here.

Summary

Not much to discuss here to be honest, but my thoughts are that Rotten Row is probably the least poor of a bad bunch running in what looks a really poor race for a Class 2 handicap. My issue with Rotten Row, though, is that he's currently (4.45pm Monday) only a 2/1 shot and there's no value there for me. The other five were bracketed in the 9/2 to 13/2 range, so no scope for an E/W bet just yet and my advice here would be to not have a bet.

If I was to pick one, it'd be a tentative nudge towards Grey Skies after a wind op and a drop in trip or maybe a very small E/W punt on current 13/2 outsider El Borracho (based on the pace angle) if he was to drift a little further.