It’s Ayr Gold Cup Day in Scotland (Ayr racecourse) this Saturday, while the ITV cameras are also heading to Newbury for their Dubai Duty Free Day – We’ve 9 LIVE races in total and we’ve got it all covered with all the key trends for each race, plus our verdict.
Did you know – 18 of the last 24 Ayr Gold Cup winners FAILED to win their last race, while 15 of the last 16 winners came from stalls 8 or higher.
Use our key trends to whittle down the runners and help find the best profiles of past winners.
AYR Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)
1.15 – Ladbrokes ‘Free Bet At Ayr’ Handicap Cl2 (3yo+ 0-100) 1m RTV
13/13 - Won at least twice before
13/13 - Rated between 88 and 96
12/13 - Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
11/13 - Won previously over 1m
11/13 - Ran in the last 4 weeks
10/13 - Aged between 3-5 years-old
9/13 - Finished in the top 4 last time out
9/13 - Drawn between stalls 3 and 9 (inc)
8/13 - Placed favourites
8/13 - Carried 9-3 or less in weight
8/13 - Irish bred
7/13 - Had run at Ayr before
4/13 - Ridden by a claiming jockey
2/13 - Trained by David O’Meara
2/13 - Winning favourites
2/13 – Trained by Richard Spencer
Revich won the race in 2021 & 2023 and 3rd in 2022
1.50 – Ladbrokes ‘Big Football Bet Builder Boosts’ Doonside Cup Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 (3yo+) 1m2f ITV
13/14 – Didn’t win last time out
13/14 – Yet to race at Ayr
13/14 – Won over 1m2f or more
13/14 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
12/14 – Winners from stalls 8 or lower
12/14 – Rated between 101 and 111
11/14 – Won 3 or more times before
11/14 – Irish bred
9/14 – Aged 4 or older
9/14 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
3/14 – Trained by Andrew Balding (3 of the last 12)
3/14 – Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor
4/14 – Winning favourites
2/14 – Ridden by Danny Tudhope
2/14 – Trained by the Johnston yard (2 of the last 10)
Owner Sheikh Mohammed Obaid Al Maktoum has won 2 of the last 3 runnings
6 of the last 9 winners drawn between 3-7
2.25 – Ladbrokes Ayr Silver Cup (Handicap) Cl2 6f ITV
22/22 – Carried 8-11 or more
20/22 – Previous winners over 6f
19/22 – Aged 5 or younger
18/22 – Carried 9-0 or more
17/22 – Had 5 or more runs that season
16/22 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
16/22 – Winning distance 1 length or less
15/22 – Had raced at Ayr before (6 won)
14/22 – Finished 5th or better last time out
13/22 - Had either 2 or 3 career wins to their name
12/22 – Unplaced favourites
9/22 – The first 4 home all returned a double-figure price
5/22 – Drawn in stalls 8 to 20 (inc) i.e horses drawn either high or low have done best
5/22 – Won last time out
5/22 – Winning Favourites (last 2 favs have won)
3/22 – Trained by Richard Fahey
1/22 – Filly or mare winners
Wobwobwob won the race in 2023
Tim Easterby has won 2 of the last 6
7 of the last 9 winners came from stalls 11 or lower
3.00 – Ladbrokes ‘Get Rewarded With Ladbucks’ Firth Of Clyde Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 6f ITV
20/22 – Had never raced at Ayr before
19/22 – Finished 4th or better last time out
18/22 – Previous winners over 6f
18/22 – Had won one or two times before
16/22 – Drawn in stall 10 or lower
15/22 – Won by a Jan, Feb or March foal
15/22 – Winning distance 1 length or further
15/22 – Had 3 or more runs that season
13/22 – Placed favourites
11/22 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
10/22 – Won last time out
5/22 – Winning favourites
3/22 – Ran at Doncaster last time out
3/22 – Trained by Bryan Smart
William Haggas has won 2 of the last 76
Trainer Richard Fahey has won 2 of the last 5 runnings
3.35 – Ladbrokes Ayr Gold Cup (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 6f ITV
24/24 – Raced within the last 8 weeks
21/24 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
21/24 – Had 3 or more wins to their name
19/24 – Had won over 6f before
18/24 – Failed to win their last race
17/24 – Carried 9-1 or more
17/24 – Came from a double-figure stall
15/24 – Rated 90-101
15/24 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
15/24 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
13/24 – Winning distance 1 length or less
13/24 – Had 7 or more runs that season
13/24 – Unplaced favourites
12/24 – Ran at Doncaster (4), Goodwood (5) or Haydock (3) last time out
13/24 – Had raced at Ayr before
5/24 – Trained by Kevin Ryan
4/24 – Winning favourites (or joint) (only 5 winning favs since 1980)
2/24 – Trained by Richard Fahey (2 of the last 19)
2/24 – Trained by Andrew Balding (2 of the last 12)
2/24 – Trained by David O’Meara (2 of the last 11)
0/24 – Filly or mare winners
The last 8 winners were drawn 12+
Trainer Karl Burke has won the race three times (1994, 1998 & 2024)
17 of the last 20 winners carried 9-0 or more in weight
15 of the last 16 winners came from stalls 8 or higher (4 of the last 20 winners came from stall 8)
Since 1980 just 8 winners aged 6 or older
Since 1980 just 2 winners aged 7 or older
The last horse to win back-to-back races was Heronslea in 1930/31
Note: The 2018 renewal was a dead-heat
NEWBURY Horse Racing Trends (ITV4/RacingTV)
1.30 - Dubai International Airport World Trophy (Group 3) Cl1 5f34y ITV
22/23 – Raced four or more times that season
20/23 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
19/23 – Priced 9/1 or shorter
18/23 – Won a Listed or Group race before
18/23 – Won over 5f previously
18/23 - Aged 5 or younger
15/23 – Won 4 or more times
13/23 – Placed in the top 3 in their last race
8/23 – Previous Group race winners
7/23 – Won their last race
7/23 – Ran at the Curragh last time out (inc 4 of last 12 winners)
6/23 – Favourites
6/23 – Mare winners
3 of the last 10 winners stall 3
5 of the last 7 winners drawn 5 or lower
Jamie Spencer has ridden 2 of the last 10 winners
2.05 – Dubai Duty Free Autumn Cup Handicap Cl2 (3yo+) 1m 5 1/2f ITV
2 previous runnings
Hughie Morrison has won the last two runnings
Not So Sleepy won the race in 2023 and 2024
Trainer William Haggas has a 30% strike-rate with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Owen Burrows has a 27% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Andrew Balding is just 2 from 56 with his 4+ year-olds at the track
2.40 – Dubai Duty Free Handicap Cl2 (3yo+ 0-105) 1m2f ITV
14/15 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
14/15 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
14/15 – Won over 1m2f or further before
13/15 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old (9 of the last 10)
13/15 – Carried 9-2 or less in weight
12/15 – Placed in the top 5 last time out
11/15 – Drawn 8 or lower
10/15 – Won 3 or 4 times
7/15 – Won last time out
7/15 – Rated between 92 and 97 (inc)
6/15 – Winning favourites
5/15 – Had run at Newbury before
8 of the last 10 winners drawn 5 or lower
Mustazeed won this race last year (2024)
3.15 – Dubai Duty Free Mill Reef Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 6f8y ITV
18/23 – Priced 5/1 or shorter
18/23 – Won over 6f previously
17/23 – Won from draw 5 or lower
16/23 – Raced 3 or more times
16/23 – Favourites placed
14/23 – Foaled in March or later
14/23 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
11/23 – Favourites (or joint) that won
8/23 – Won exactly two races before
8/23 – Won by an April foal
8/23 – Won their previous race
5/23 – Raced at Doncaster last time out
4/23 – Ran in the Gimcrack last time out (York)
2/23 – Trained by Clive Cox (2 of the last 9)
2/23– Trained by Roger Varian (2 of the last 6)
2/23 – Trained by Richard Hannon
2/23 – Trained by Karl Burke
3/23 – Trained by Richard Fahey
0/23 – Filly winners
7 of the last 10 winners from stalls 3 or lower
4 of the last 7 winners from stalls 2 (3) or 8 (2)
Trainer Charlie Appleby has never won this race
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Other Recent Posts by This Author:
- 2025 Ayr Gold Cup Trends
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- Doncaster TV Trends: Saturday 13th Sept 2025
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- Doncaster TV Trends: Friday 12th Sept 2025
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