Tag Archive for: Brighton racecourse

Tix Picks, Tuesday 17/09/24

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Tuesday's UK placepots can be played via Tix at Brighton, Newcastle, Redcar & Yarmouth...

But, what is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

And I think we'll head South to Brighton where the going is expected to be good for our six races starting with...

Leg 1 : 2.20 Brighton, a 9-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 6f

(2) Realised was third last time out, albeit almost 14 weeks ago, but he was the only runner here to make the frame on their last outing. (3) Bear To Dream has two wins and a play from his last five starts, making him the ‘form’ horse, whilst (1) Lochaber and (5) Thunderous Love both won five starts ago with the rest of the field now winless in seven or more. Thunderous Love now drops in class and wears cheekpieces for the first time.

Card Stats : Harry Eustace (2-Realised) runners have made the frame here at Brighton in 5 of 10 over the last year and 13 of 23 over five years.

This could be a falsely run affair with no pronounced front-runner in the race...

...which would then favour/allow the 'better' runners to run their own race, although Lochaber, Another Jack, Realised and Bear To Dream have all set the pace once in their last four starts.Thunderous Love might struggle to land a blow from the back of the pack or I might have been interested.

Pretty unimaginative stuff from me here, as my 1-2-3 would be Bear To Dream, Realised & Lochaber. I only want to take two from this race, so I'll omit Realised in pursuit of a better price on Lochaber!

Selection :  (1) Lochaber & (3) Bear To Dream

Leg 2 : 2.50 Brighton, a 6-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ maiden over 7f

I’m not going to beat about the bush here and I’d be very shocked if (2) Usuario Amigo didn’t bolt up here. He has made the frame twice at Class 4 and once at Class 3 (two starts ago) and he’d be my banker today.

Card Stats : Charlie Longsdon (3-Artemsia) runners have made the frame in 4 of 7 over the last fortnight and 7 of 14 over the past 30 days.

Selection :(2) Usuario Amigo

Leg 3 : 3.20 Brighton, an 11-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 1m2f

Joint top-weight (1) Gallimimus is the sole LTO winner in the pack, but (5) Fighting Poet won his penultimate start and has made the frame in each of his last three. (2) Villalobos and (7) Clear Justice both finished 6th last time out, but have both won two of their last four, whilst bottom-weight (11) First Encounter has a win and a runner-up finish from his last three.

Card Stats : 11 of John Gallagher’s (1-Gallimimus) LTO winners have gone on to make the frame next time out. John O’ Shea (4-Letter of the Law) has 6 placers from 11 here over the last year.

The place pace/draw heat map points to front runners literally leading the way here...

...which is much better news for the likes of Villalobos than it is for Fighting Poet...

...but the Poet is in good nick despite being a persistent back marker. Gallimimus has led in two of his last three, so I'm happy to take him too.

Selection : we'll take three here, (1) Gallimimus(2) Villalobos (5) Fighting Poet yet still be worried about (4) Letter Of The Law

Leg 4 : 3.50 Brighton, an 8-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 1m4f

(1) Saint Riquier comes here on a hat-trick, drops in class and is unpunished for 10-length stroll at Leicester a week ago. He was in the frame at Class 4 in early-August before those two Class 5 wins and it’s very difficult to see him not being in the first three home. Such is his apparent dominance here, there’s a chance that the other seven runners might all be double-digit odds, the interesting one of those might be the 8 yr old (6) Torbellino who was only caught very late on in a defeat here over course and distance last time out when collared by Fighting Poet. Fighting Poet runs in the 3.20 race, of course and that might indicate how Torbellino might run.

Card Stats : Sheena West (4-Gearing’s Point) has 7 placers from 9 runners turned back out within 7 days of their last run.

Saint Riquier will go off really short and is ideally placed on the pace/draw stats to win the race, never mind make the frame!

Selection (1) Saint Riquier

Leg 5 : 4.20 Brighton, a 7-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 1m

The fast-finishing (1) Walefya was a runner-up beaten by a head over this trip on the Tapeta at Southwell last time out, just six days after winning here over course and distance, whilst (2) Romanovich has two wins and a place from his last four starting with a course and distance win here in early August and a win at Chepstow three weeks ago. Of the others, (3) Interestnpenalities is coming a bit of a nearly horse, having been a runner-up now in each of his last three starts, but did win over 7f at Wolverhampton on St George’s Day. (4) Sorontar & (5) Heers Sadie both finished third recently, but both look to have plenty to find against the other three above.

Card Stats : (1) Waleyfa’s yard have had 14 placers from their 28 runners over the last 30 days, John O’ Shea (2-Romanovich) has 6 placers from 11 here over the last year.

I see a Waleyfa/Romanovich 1-2 here based on form/stats and they're going to head the market, which isn't good for pot building, but I can't see any of the others getting to them. Of those others, the unexposed (4) Sorontar might be the one to build upon a third place finish at Windsor last time out, but third might be as good as he gets here, which isn't helpful in a 7-runner field.

Selection (1) Waleyfa (2) Romanovich

Leg 6 : 4.50 Brighton, an 11-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 7f

(1) Otago won last time out, as did (10) Forgotten Treasure, who has two wins and place from his last five outings, but the runner bringing the best set of results to the table is hat-trick seeking (6) Split Elevens, whose last six results read 211311. Elsewhere former course and distance winners (3) Poetic Force and (4) Electric Avenue both drop in class. The former narrowly missed out on making the frame here over course and distance last time out, whilst the latter is now only 1lb higher than that C&D win from mid-June.

Card Stats : William Knight (10-Forgotten Treasure) has four placers from five Brighton runners over the last year (three wins) and his LTO winners have made the frame in 28 of 45 races next time out, winning 14 (31.1%) of them.

Forgotten Treasure is also the pick of the pack from the win pace/draw heat map here...

...although those drawn highest are well suited too, whilst Instant Expert points us towards Otago, the out of form Amathus, Electric Avenue, Split Elevens and Forgotten Treasure...

 

I think I'm going to go fairly deep here in a bid to consolidate what we have, if we're still in the running.

Selection (1) Otago (3) Poetic Force (4) Electric Avenue (6) Spilt Elevens (10) Forgotten Treasure

Leg 1: horses 1 & 3

Leg 2: horse 2

Leg 3: horses 1, 2 & 5

Leg 4:horse 1

Leg 5: horses 1 & 5

Leg 6: horses 1, 3, 4, 6 & 10

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Racing Insights, Wednesday 07/08/24

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 2.55 Brighton
  • 3.10 Pontefract
  • 4.45 Wexford
  • 6.00 Sligo
  • 6.15 Wexford

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have highlighted the following UK runners for 14-day form...

...30-day form...

... and 1-year course form...

And although Sir Mark Prescott's Godsend runs in one of our free races, that race only has four runners, so we'll switch our sights to Eve Johnson Houghton and her 6 yr old gelding Uncle Dick, who runs in the 3.55 Brighton, a 9-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ flat handicap over a left-handed mile on good to firm ground...

...a race featuring no LTO winners, although Sandy Paradise, Dream of Mischief, Buy The Dip and Blenheim Star all had top three finishes, whilst Sandy Paradise, Lunatick, Optiva Star, Drink Dry and Uncle Dick have each won one of their last seven. Charming Whisper and Buy the Dip are both two from seven and Blenheim Star has won three of his last five, but Dream of Mischief has lost nine on the bounce.

The bottom three on the card, Uncle Dick, Buy The Dip and Blenheim Star all step up a level from Class 5, but Charming Whisper drops two classes after finishing 4th of 13 in a Class 2 handicap at Newmarket which followed back to back Class 4 wins.

Sandy Paradise has rested the longest of this group, but has only been off track for six weeks, so we shouldn't have any rustiness there. Most of the field last raced 20-26 days ago, but Buy The Dip was actually in action as recently as Monday of this week at Lingfield!

Drink Dry is the only one yet to win over this type of trip and five of the field (Lunatick, Optiva Star, Uncle Dick, Buy The Dip and Blenheim Star) have all won over course and distance with Uncle Dick winning half a dozen races here over the last two years, according to Instant Expert...

...which shows quite a few of these in a decent light, especially the three lowest in the weights, Uncle Dick, Buy The Dip and Blenheim Star. Lunatick and Dream of Mischief have struggled to win at Class 4 and also over this trip, so they're probably the weakest so far. They'll run from stalls 7 and 9, so they won't be helped if there's a low draw bias, which we'll check now...

There's actually not that much of an advantage to be gained from the draw, although those drawn centrally have fared marginally better. Pace, however, is a different matter here at Brighton and the further forward you race, the greater the chance of making the frame and ultimately going on to win..

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Sadly, there's no real pace in the race and I suspect we'll get a falsely run affair which will play into the hands of those who are normally held up for a run, such as Charming Whisper, Blenheim Star and Dream Of Mischief if this field's recent races are anything to go by...

I think it might well be left to the likes of Buy The Dip to set the tempo of the race here.

Summary

Sandy Paradise, Dream of Mischief, Buy The Dip and Blenheim Star all finished in the first three home last time out, whilst Charming Whisper, Buy the Dip and Blenheim Star all have multiple 'recent' wins under their belts.

Uncle Dick, Buy The Dip and Blenheim Star were probably the picks from Instant Expert , whilst a lack of pace in the race looks like giving and advantage to Charming Whisper, Blenheim Star and Dream Of Mischief, although Buy The Dip might well try to nick a place or even the win from the front if afforded an easy lead.

Based on this précis of my analysis, the three that pop up most in terms of plus points are Blenheim Star, Buy the Dip and Charming Whisper and as of 5pm Tuesday, the field was priced as follows...

..but I think I marginally prefer Blenheim Star to Charming Whisper for the win.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 02/07/24

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The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

Here are my qualifiers on Tuesday's Shortlist...

...where we've two runners in the same race at Brighton. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...

  • 2.15 Hamilton
  • 2.33 Tipperary
  • 4.45 Roscommon
  • 7.00 Lingfield
  • 7.20 Roscommon

And whilst it's not the best calibre of race in the world (or even on this day!), I think I should have a look at Gallimimus and Chourmo from The Shortlist, who make up a quarter of the 8-runner field for the 3.55 Brighton, a Class 6 (all six races at Brighton are Class 6 affairs), 4yo+ flat handicap over a left-handed 1m2f on good to firm ground...

Corporate Raider and Bhubezi both won last time out, whilst Bobacious was a modest third of nine at Chepstow, which means he's still a maiden after eight attempts across a variety of race genres (4 x flat, 1 x A/W, 1 x hurdle and 1 x NHF!). Others struggling for wins are Gallimimus, Lucky Question and Irezumi with Gallimimus having lost nine on the bounce since a course and distance success a year ago, whilst Lucky Question and Irezumi are both still maidens after twelve and seventeen races respectively!

Our two runners from The Shortlist, Gallimimus and Chourmo both drop down a class here, whilst connections of Lucky Question will be hoping that a change of yard leads to an improvement in form, as hopefully will first-time cheekpieces for Irezumi. It's also a UK debut for Lucky Question after a dozen defeats in Ireland and he now runs for the first time in fourteen weeks whilst all his rivals have been out at least once in the last ten to twenty-four days.

Gallimimus and Chourmo have both won over course and distance before, whilst Corporate Raider and Dee's Dream have also scored here at Brighton in the past with the former prevailing here over 1m4f last time out and the latter also winning over that trip back in September 2023. Aside from our two course and distance winners, Corporate Raider's victory at Yarmouth a year ago is the only other win over today's trip.

As you'd expect, Gallimimus and Chourmo are the immediate eyecatchers on Instant Expert...

...but that is, of course tempered, by the former's inability to win any of nine races over the last year. Irezumi looks the weak link here and I've concerns about Dee's Dream's poor strike rate of 1 from 8 at Class 6 over the last two to supplement her overall career record of just 1 win from 19! I suppose it comes to something when a 17.65% career strike rate (Gallimimus is 3 from 17) is the best on offer in a race. I can only hope some of them have ran well, been unlucky and made the frame instead of winning...

Well, that's a prettier sight, but the end of the road for Irezumi with me for this one. Lucky Question is generally untried under these conditions, but having lost all twelve previous starts with just three places, he's also going to be tough to recommend. He's drawn out in stall seven of eight today and that might actually give him a bit more chance of getting involved here, based on past results of similar races at Brighton over the years...

...although to make best use of what looks a favourable draw, he'd be best advised to get a bit of a wriggle on early doors...

Sadly for Lucky Question, getting out sharpish doesn't seem to be his thing and I suspect the pace in this race will come from those drawn lower with the three lowest-drawn runners filling the first four spaces on our pace averages, based on their recent races...

...handing them the initiative.

Summary

Of our two runners from The Shortlist, Gallimimus and Chourmo, I prefer the latter for this contest and I'd probably suggest Chourmo as my actual winner of the race, despite not seeming to have the ideal pace profile for this course/distance. He was the last to break when scoring here two starts ago and he beat the re-opposing Corporate Raider by a neck that day.

The latter has since won here over 1m4f, of course and that puts him in a strong position here, but he carries 3lbs more than Chourmo here and they carried equal weight when Chourmo beat him, so I'm going for Chourmo to narrowly beat Corporate raider again, although there probably won't be much, if anything in it. This probably explains why they were best-priced at 4/1 and 5/1 respectively at 5.10pm on Monday.

Only Gallimimus (10/1), Irezumi (14/1) and Dee's Dream (16/1) traded above my arbitrary 8/1 E/W cut-off price, so an E/W bet is unlikely here, but it would have to be Gallimimus if any.

Racing Insights, Monday 03/06/24

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The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.

This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...

  • 2.20 Listowel
  • 2.30 Brighton
  • 3.05 Gowran Park
  • 4.50 Listowel
  • 8.45 Windsor

...from which, I think I'll head to the South Coast for the 2.30 Brighton, a 9-runner, Class 6, 4yo+ Apprentice Classified Stakes over a left-handed 7f on good/good to firm ground...

Top-weight (carrying 5lbs more than the others) is the fast-finisher Fai Fai and he's our only LTO winner in a field that elsewhere Broxi's win five starts ago is the only success any of these have had in their last seven outings, although My Bonnie Lassie made the frame on her last start (over course and distance, too) and has done so twice in her last four efforts.

All nine raced at this level last time around which was inside the last eight weeks for all bar Gilt Edge, who now returns from a six-month break. Muy Muy Guapo has been far from 'very very handsome' of late, having been unplaced in each of his last seven and it is hoped that first-time cheekpieces help today.

This isn't a handicap, so all bar the 5lb-penalised Fai Fai will carry 9st 9lbs here and with four of them rated at 50 and one at 49, this could be a tight contest, despite the obvious lack of quality. Of the five separated by just 1lb in the ratings, Voltaic has a 3lb claimer on board, whilst the jockeys of Kondratiev Wave and Broxi are both able to take 5lbs off, which may well have a bearing here.

All nine have raced over this trip (2 to 35 times overall) with only Broxi (7 from 35) and He's Our Star (3 from 15) managing to win with the other seven failing to score in any of 66 attempts and it's the same two horses who have won here at Brighton before as Broxi is 2 from 2 here and He's Our Star has won 3 of 16 with the others notching up 21 defeats, whilst over course and distance, Broxi is 2 from 2 and He's Our Man 2 from 3. Other relevant stats come courtesy of Instant Expert, of course...

...where Broxi is the immediate eye-catcher based on wins over the last two years, with both Fai Fai and Voltaic having commendable place records, but you probably didn't need me to spell that out. When it comes to place stats, I'm never too keen about horses 'in the red' after 5 runs or more, so by that standard My Bonnie Lassie and He's Our Star fail on class/course data, whilst Gilt Edge also fails on class and I'd be more than happy to rule them out right now, leaving me with the following in draw order...

I've got them in draw order, because I want to check with our draw analyser to see if any of these be helped or hindered by their stall position based on data gleaned from past similar races here at Brighton...

...where to be honest, I'd say that the bias wasn't that great at all, but if there is an advantage to be had it's probably more relevant for the placings rather than the wins and that those drawn lowest have the better chances. It's a different story from a pace perspective, though, where the onus is to get out quickly with our pace analyser showing that leaders/prominent runners won 51.2% (64) of those 125 races above, despite only accounting for 41.6% (452) of the 1085 runners involved...

...with a similar (but not quite as stark) difference with the places, where they took 46.9% (175) of the 373 places. When we then look back at how this field has approached their most recent races...

...I guess that Broxi might well be afforded a soft early lead and that he'll attempt to make all here.

Summary

Based on the above, it has to be Broxi for me.

Aside from Fai Fai, he brings the best form to the table and is second best off at the weights after allowances, just 1lb inferior to Kondratiev Wave. He has the best win stats on Instant Expert, backed up by good place data. He has been drawn in stall one, so he has the rail to guide him and only one direction to look out for danger, but based on the pace stats, he might not see another runner after the start and if so, it'll probably be late on.

LTO-winner Fai Fai is only two stalls away and might well get a tow into the race, which would help but he and Voltaic are the two best suited to making the frame here today anyway and it is these two that I expect to pose the biggest threat to Broxi here. If pushed to split the placers, I think I like Voltaic slightly more as he carries 8lbs less than Fai Fai, but Fai Fai is the stronger finisher : it might be tight!

As of 4.20pm on Sunday, only Bet365 had shown any odds and they went...

I can understand why Kondratiev Wave might be popular, but 3/1 seems mighty short for a horse on a twenty-one race losing streak and 7/2 about Broxi looks better value.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 28/05/24

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The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREENis good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBERis quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
REDis not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 pointsThe final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.
N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.
My fairly restrictive settings (you get to choose your own) for The Shortlist have generated the following qualifiers......and as ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover the following...

  • 4.55 Leicester
  • 5.20 Brighton
  • 5.30 Ballinrobe
  • 6.30 Ballinrobe
  • 6.55 Bangor
  • 8.30 Ballinrobe

...from which I think I'll have a look at the Secret Handsheikh vs Jacquelina battle from The Shortlist in the 2.15 Brighton, an 8-runner (fingers crossed!), Class 6, 4yo+ flat handicap over a left-handed 5f 60yds on good ground...

Sole LTO winner Jacquelina arrives here seeking a three-week hat-trick after a heavy ground win over 5f at Windsor and a good ground course and distanc esuccess here a week ago and she is, in fact, the only one of the eight to have made the frame on their last run, but at least all bar bottom-weight and 8-race maiden Haveagobeau have won at least one of their last seven outings.

Haveagobeau's cause isn't helped by not having had a run for eight months either, when all bar Boom The Groom (rested for 60 days) of his rivals have raced in the last month. Better news for Mokaatil, Alpine Girl and the fast-finishing Secret Handsheikh, though, as they all drop down a class to run here.

As an eight-race maiden, Haveagobeau is the only runner in the field yet to win at either track or trip with all seven rivals having won at least once over a similar distance. Jacquelina isn't the only course and distance winner, though, as Batchelor Boy, Secret Handsheikh and Cabeza de Llave (spanner head in Spanish?) have all also achieved the feat, whilst 116-race veteran Boom The Groom has won here over 6f...

As you'd expect from their places on The Shortlist, both Jacquelina and Secret Handsheikh fare well on Instant Expert, as does Alpine Girl off an admittedly small sample size. Mokaatil and Batchelor Boy would probably prefer the ground to be a bit quicker, Haveagobeau has won a race of any description and Boom The Groom's 'better' recent form has been on A/W tracks away from Brighton. Batchelor Boy also has a terrible win record here on this track at 1 from 14 and only 3 placed efforts in his 13 defeats...

I often use the place stats to cross runners off my list of possibles and Haveagobeau has to go now. I knew he hadn't won a race, but the above data says he hasn't been getting close either and he's clearly the weakest of the eight. Batchelor Boy's record on good ground causes concerns, but he has gone well at this class and trip, whilst his 29% place strike rate isn't horrific.

Past races here haven't shown a massive (in my opinion, anyway) draw bias, as those drawn low have a lower win percentage but a higher place ration than those drawn further out, suggesting that there's not a great deal to be had from the draw...

...whilst it's a different story from the pace angle...

...with those willing to set the pace getting the best results, especially if drawn low to mid-field...

...which based on the field's recent efforts could be more very good news for Jacquelina from her fairly central draw...

Summary

More pictures than words today, but that's sometimes more helpful. And it's probably no surprise that I'm suggesting Jacquelina as my likeliest winner here. She's in great form, scores well on The Shortlist and Instant Expert and has a good pace/draw profile for this race. Fellow featured runner Secret Handsheikh also looks to be in with a good shout of making the frame and if pushed for a third placer, I'd probably look towards Batchelor Boy on his recent form line, even if conditions aren't exactly ideal here for him.

No odds available at 3.15pm Monday, but I'd expect to see something like Jacquelina 3/1, Secret Handsheikh 4/1, Batchelor Boy 6/1, so none would be E/W viable if those odds are right, unfortunately.Please Note No column tomorrow (Tuesday for Wednesday) racing as I'm away at a family funeral. Normal Service resumes Wednesday, of course.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 23/05/23

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The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information] and here is Tuesday's Shortlist...

...where the first three would all be worth a second look.

As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...

  • 3.15 Punchestown
  • 3.23 Brighton
  • 4.10 Wolverhampton
  • 4.30 Huntingdon
  • 7.50 Hexham
  • 8.20 Hexham

It's not often that we get a horse scoring 15 on TS featuring in one of our 'free' races, but they've aligned here and whilst it's not the best race we'll ever look at, we really should look at Major Gatsby and the 3.23 Brighton,  an 11-runner, Class 6, 4yo+ flat handicap over a left-handed 7f on good firm ground...

It's not unusual for a Class 6 field to contain no LTO winners and that's sadly the case here, but Fieldsman was a runner-up just 11 days ago, whilst both Mount Mogan and Amathus both finished third most recently inside the last three weeks. As for 'recent' wins, only joint top weight King of War, Shalfa and Diamond Cottage have scored in their last five outings.

Only River Wharfe, Fieldsman, Diamond Cottage and Sir Sedric raced (and were beaten, of course) at this lowly grade last time out, as the other seven all drop down from Class 5 and for bottom weight Dazzerling, this is is his first run for Phil McEntee, having left Laura Mongan's yard in the last three weeks. He also wears a hood for the first time, whilst Spirit Warning is in first-time blinkers and Sir Sedric will wear cheekpieces for the first time. In fact only Fieldsman runs with no headgear/equipment at all!

Whilst Major Gatsby was our featured runner from The Shortlist, he's not the only former course and distance winner on display here. As it happens, only Mount Mogan, Spirit Warning, Sir Sedric and Dazzerling have yet to win over this track and trip, but all bar Dazzerling have at least scored over 7f elsewhere.

We've a big spread of age/weight here today as the 11yr old Fieldsman takes on four 4 yr olds (top three in the weights and the bottom weight) in a field where King of War and Major Gatsby are rated some 18lbs better than Dazzerling.

Major Gatsby, however, might well need a run after a break of almost 20 weeks as he now tackles a group of horses where most of them have raced in the last four weeks, apart from Sir Sedric and Spirit Warning who return from absences of 101 and 354 days respectively and the latter could certainly be excused for a bit of rustiness.

More stats are available to us when we click the Instant Expert tab, such as seven past good to firm winners and one tackling the going for the first time as well as seven (not the same seven!) Class 6 winners. We also have one Class 2 winner, three at Class 3, three at Class 4 and six Class 5 winners...

...and in a pretty open but fairly mediocre contest, it is indeed Major Gatsby who catches the eye on the win stats, but without any real standout star above, we might need the place stats to help us whittle the field down...

and fragmented by column...

If we hen applied the green = 3pts and amber = 1pt rule from the Shortlist criteria, then we'd have Dazzling and Shalfa on a maximum of 12pts, followed by King of War on 10pts. next best on the list would then be Fieldsman, Major Gatsby and River Wharfe each with 8pts and having featured on all four columns. I think that these are the ones to focus on now. This half dozen are drawn no higher than stall 9 (2, 4, 6, 7, 8 & 9) with most of them in the higher half of the draw over a course and distance  where the draw stats wouldn't necessarily be enough to rule any of them out...

...although stall 6 (Fieldsman) seems an anomaly with such a poor return. The key to winning at Brighton has often been about getting your nose in front and staying there...

...with leaders almost twice as likely as prominent/hold-up types to win. Again, I'd be wary of suggesting mid-division horses can't win, but their record is pretty poor from both a win and place perspective and I'd want my runner to be in the forward half of the field, which is where you're likely to find Shalfa and Fieldsman...

and my shortlisted six from pace/draw combined...

Summary

I narrowed the field down to six and then based initially on pace and then by the pace/draw combination, I think that I'd want Shalfa, Fieldsman and King of War as my three for the frame in a very open-looking race. I could easily have the first three home, but I could also have none in the frame and as such, it's case of keeping stakes very low.

My three are relatively generously priced at 8/1, 5/1 and 16/1 respectively and on that basis, I'd take E/W options about Shalfa at 8's and King of War at 16's and if you've still got an active SkyBet account, they're paying four places.

Good luck!

 

 

Racing Insights, Wednesday 03/05/23

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 1.50 Wolverhampton
  • 3.00 Wolverhampton
  • 3.50 Ascot
  • 5.00 Ascot
  • 6.40 Brighton
  • 7.50 Gowran Park

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have generated just one runner on course 1-year form and another two runners on 30-day form and even one of those is now not running!

Although it's nowhere near the best race of the day, we really should marry up our 'free' races with our feature of the day and see how James Ferguson's sole runner gets on down South. It's a second visit to the Coast on the bounce for us as we now take a look at the 6.40 Brighton, where Menalippe from the TS report will take on eight others over a left-handed seven furlongs on good to firm ground (as I suspected yesterday) in a Class 5, 3yo flat handicap...

The Toff and Quinault both won last time out and are raised 3lbs and 6lbs respectively for those runs. Featured horse Menalippe was third and has won two of her last five. Ghassan is a four-race maiden, as is Enborne, whilst Constitution has yet to win any of seven starts, making the frame just once and has been last home in each of his last three.

We've no handicap debutants or new headgeat etc on display, but four of them (Quinault, Enborne, Phoenix Glow & Estehwadh) all step up a class from the basement, despite the last three not even making the frame. All nine have raced in the last month with Quinault turned back out just six days after scoring at Chelmsford over 6f.

As is often the case at this time of year, Instant Expert has little data about a 3yo flat handicap, but we do see that both King of Ithaca and The Toff have won at this grade already and they've both won over today's trip, as have featured horse Menalippe and bottom weight Estehwadh...

Quite a lot of red there and both Constitution and Estehwadh are already looking like confirmed Class 6 types, whilst Enborne might benefit from a change of trip after four starts all at 7f.  The place stats. however, aren't quite as bleak...

...with a few places at class & trip, but Enborne has been found wanting here again whilst LTO winner The Toff is the eye-catcher. The Toff is drawn 3 of 9 here and whilst his graphic suggests a low draw is favoured...

...it doesn't really tell the whole story as stall-by-stall, you probably don't want stalls 1 or 2...

...but The Toff should be fine in stall3, as that 3 to 8 corridor looks favourite. Enborne suffers another blow here, being widest of all in #9. Those drawn highest have won in the past, though, but the heat map suggests they need to get out quickly and lead...

...but most running style/draw combos look like they'll have a chance here. LTO winner Quinault is drawn dead centre in box 5 and if he's a front runner, then he'll have the ideal pace/draw make-up, so let's check how he has been running...

He doesn't seem to be a front-runner per sé, but that prominent winning run LTO was easily his best performance to date, so he might well be further forward than the pace scores might suggest, but with at least half of the field looking like they might want to get on with it, we could have a quick one on our hands and getting on with it is the ideal way here at Brighton over 7f...

...and I'd suggest is a case of pace>draw here.

Summary

The obvious starting point is the fact we've two LTO winners and not a great deal of form elsewhere, but neither tick all the boxes. Quinault was beaten by seven lengths when last home of seven on his sole Flat appearance and was beaten by 11 lengths and 7.5 lengths on the A/W before getting off the mark at the fourth attempt last week. He's up 6lbs for that run and up in both class and trip.

As for The Toff, he started well last summer, finishing 3rd and 2nd on his first two starts, but was then placed just once in seven, including being last home twice, before arriving at this class/trip at Lingfield in late March, where on a more realistic mark of 67 he was second of nine and then finally got off the mark over the same track/trip three weeks later. He's at the same class/trip as that win a fortnight ago, but is up 3lbs for a three-quarter length success, so there's little room for error.

I suspect these will be the first two home, and then after them, you could suggest three, four or five similar types, but I'd be surprised if Menalippe wasn't on the premises at closing time. I'd be happy to back Menalippe on an E/W basis if I could get 8's or bigger and seeing as I haven't got that much separating Quinault & The Toff, I'd prefer the latter to win, because we'll get more value from the price.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 02/05/23

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The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information] and here is Tuesday's Shortlist...

...where Citizen Beneral and Broxi would be of most initial obvious interest. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover the following...

  • 3.10 Nottingham
  • 3.20 Brighton
  • 4.00 Yarmouth
  • 7.00 Newcastle
  • 9.00 Newcastle

...from which, the 3.20 Brighton is the highest rated. It's a 10-runner, Class 3, fillies handicap over a left handed 1m2f on good ground that will be quicker/firmer in places and here's how they line up...

Rikona, She's Hot and Maid In Kentucky all won last time out and they are currently 2 from 4, 2 from 3 and 2 from 2 respectively. Crystal Estrella, Three Priests and Wisper all won two starts ago, Rich & Pure Gold both won three back and only Arenas Del Tiempo and Orange Martini are without a recent win. In fairness, the latter is only a three-race maiden, but the former has lost eleven on the spin since a win at Epsom in August 2021.

None of these raced at Class 3 last time around as Crystal Estrella, Rich both drop down one class, whilst Three Priests, Wisper, Maid In Kentucky, Pure Gold, Orange Martini all step up one level, but Rikona, Arenas Del Tiempo & She's Hot are all up two classes here.

Quite a few of these lack handicap experience, as Crystal Estrella, Three Priests and Pure Gold have only had prior hcp run, whilst She's Hot and Maid In Kentucky are both on handicap debut today. Two of the field (Wisper and Arenas Del Tiempo) have won here at Brighton before, both scoring over course and distance, whilst Crystal Estrella and Rokina have won elsewhere over this 1m2f trip.

Half of the field have raced inside the last two months, but Crystal Estrella, Wisper, She's Hot, Pure Gold and Orange Martini are coming back from breaks of 185 to 237 days and migfht well need a run. The last thing to note from the card is that the five three year olds (Rich, She's Hot, Maid In Kentucky, Pure Gold & Orange Martini) all get a whopping 15lbs weights allowance.

Other stats to note are that Maid In Kentucky has never raced on turf before, only Arenas Del Tiempo has raced at Class 3 before (she's 0 from 3), the two course and distance winner sare the only to to have raced here and that Rich, Pure Gold and Orange Martini are trying this trip for the first time...

This lack of Instant Expert data is part of my reluctance to play the Flat early doors, but I can't swerve it forever. We do have limited info here, but you can already suggest that Wisper might go well here, especially if it dries out more, as she's won three times on good firm, whilst Arenas Del Tiempo would also prefer it quicker with a 2 from 3 record on good firm, but a poor win return on good ground, but generally speaking her place records are good...

...so I wouldn't be too hasty to rule her out here. The forecast is for dry windy weather and that might just quicken the turf up for that pair, who both drawn high (8 & 10) here, which in the past has been a good place to run from...

...over a track/trip where hold-up horses have won their fair share of races, but prominent runners have tended to be most successful...

The fact that leaders make the frame most often, but win least often suggests they get picked off late on by the stalking prominent runners and based on this field's most recent efforts...

...that would be better news for Wisper than it would for Arenas Del Tiempo from those wide draws and this dominance of the prominent runner is starkly highlighted by the pace/draw heat map...

...which points firmly towards Maid In Kentucky and Crystal Estrella in stalls 6 & 7 with that mid-draw prominence, whilst Rokina and Pure Gold might well fill the low drawn hold-up role here, giving them a chance.

Summary

It's hard to get away from Maid In Kentucky, even if she hasn't yet raced on turf. She's in good form, seeking a hat-trick, she's got a reasonable opening mark of 82, she gets that 15lb allowance, has won at this trip and has he ideal pace/draw combination. So she'd be my pick here at a pretty fair 7/2 with Hills.

Elsewhere, she might well pull Crystal Estrella along with her and if she's not too rusty after seven months off, could well make the frame at 12's (Bet365) and another I liked as an E/W possible was Rikona, who is 3 from 7 and a previous distance winner and is also attractively priced at 12/1, although Three Priests might well beat one or both of them with a late run.