Racing Insights, Tuesday 02/07/24

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Here are my qualifiers on Tuesday's Shortlist...

...where we've two runners in the same race at Brighton. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...

• 2.15 Hamilton
• 2.33 Tipperary
• 4.45 Roscommon
• 7.00 Lingfield
• 7.20 Roscommon

And whilst it's not the best calibre of race in the world (or even on this day!), I think I should have a look at Gallimimus and Chourmo from The Shortlist, who make up a quarter of the 8-runner field for the 3.55 Brighton, a Class 6 (all six races at Brighton are Class 6 affairs), 4yo+ flat handicap over a left-handed 1m2f on good to firm ground...

Corporate Raider and Bhubezi both won last time out, whilst Bobacious was a modest third of nine at Chepstow, which means he's still a maiden after eight attempts across a variety of race genres (4 x flat, 1 x A/W, 1 x hurdle and 1 x NHF!). Others struggling for wins are Gallimimus, Lucky Question and Irezumi with Gallimimus having lost nine on the bounce since a course and distance success a year ago, whilst Lucky Question and Irezumi are both still maidens after twelve and seventeen races respectively!

Our two runners from The Shortlist, Gallimimus and Chourmo both drop down a class here, whilst connections of Lucky Question will be hoping that a change of yard leads to an improvement in form, as hopefully will first-time cheekpieces for Irezumi. It's also a UK debut for Lucky Question after a dozen defeats in Ireland and he now runs for the first time in fourteen weeks whilst all his rivals have been out at least once in the last ten to twenty-four days.

Gallimimus and Chourmo have both won over course and distance before, whilst Corporate Raider and Dee's Dream have also scored here at Brighton in the past with the former prevailing here over 1m4f last time out and the latter also winning over that trip back in September 2023. Aside from our two course and distance winners, Corporate Raider's victory at Yarmouth a year ago is the only other win over today's trip.

As you'd expect, Gallimimus and Chourmo are the immediate eyecatchers on Instant Expert...

...but that is, of course tempered, by the former's inability to win any of nine races over the last year. Irezumi looks the weak link here and I've concerns about Dee's Dream's poor strike rate of 1 from 8 at Class 6 over the last two to supplement her overall career record of just 1 win from 19! I suppose it comes to something when a 17.65% career strike rate (Gallimimus is 3 from 17) is the best on offer in a race. I can only hope some of them have ran well, been unlucky and made the frame instead of winning...

Well, that's a prettier sight, but the end of the road for Irezumi with me for this one. Lucky Question is generally untried under these conditions, but having lost all twelve previous starts with just three places, he's also going to be tough to recommend. He's drawn out in stall seven of eight today and that might actually give him a bit more chance of getting involved here, based on past results of similar races at Brighton over the years...

...although to make best use of what looks a favourable draw, he'd be best advised to get a bit of a wriggle on early doors...

Sadly for Lucky Question, getting out sharpish doesn't seem to be his thing and I suspect the pace in this race will come from those drawn lower with the three lowest-drawn runners filling the first four spaces on our pace averages, based on their recent races...

...handing them the initiative.

Summary

Of our two runners from The Shortlist, Gallimimus and Chourmo, I prefer the latter for this contest and I'd probably suggest Chourmo as my actual winner of the race, despite not seeming to have the ideal pace profile for this course/distance. He was the last to break when scoring here two starts ago and he beat the re-opposing Corporate Raider by a neck that day.

The latter has since won here over 1m4f, of course and that puts him in a strong position here, but he carries 3lbs more than Chourmo here and they carried equal weight when Chourmo beat him, so I'm going for Chourmo to narrowly beat Corporate raider again, although there probably won't be much, if anything in it. This probably explains why they were best-priced at 4/1 and 5/1 respectively at 5.10pm on Monday.

Only Gallimimus (10/1), Irezumi (14/1) and Dee's Dream (16/1) traded above my arbitrary 8/1 E/W cut-off price, so an E/W bet is unlikely here, but it would have to be Gallimimus if any.