Racing Insights, Wednesday 07/08/24
Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.
HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!
[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]
In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...
- 2.55 Brighton
- 3.10 Pontefract
- 4.45 Wexford
- 6.00 Sligo
- 6.15 Wexford
My own personal settings for the TS report...
...have highlighted the following UK runners for 14-day form...
...30-day form...
... and 1-year course form...
And although Sir Mark Prescott's Godsend runs in one of our free races, that race only has four runners, so we'll switch our sights to Eve Johnson Houghton and her 6 yr old gelding Uncle Dick, who runs in the 3.55 Brighton, a 9-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ flat handicap over a left-handed mile on good to firm ground...
...a race featuring no LTO winners, although Sandy Paradise, Dream of Mischief, Buy The Dip and Blenheim Star all had top three finishes, whilst Sandy Paradise, Lunatick, Optiva Star, Drink Dry and Uncle Dick have each won one of their last seven. Charming Whisper and Buy the Dip are both two from seven and Blenheim Star has won three of his last five, but Dream of Mischief has lost nine on the bounce.
The bottom three on the card, Uncle Dick, Buy The Dip and Blenheim Star all step up a level from Class 5, but Charming Whisper drops two classes after finishing 4th of 13 in a Class 2 handicap at Newmarket which followed back to back Class 4 wins.
Sandy Paradise has rested the longest of this group, but has only been off track for six weeks, so we shouldn't have any rustiness there. Most of the field last raced 20-26 days ago, but Buy The Dip was actually in action as recently as Monday of this week at Lingfield!
Drink Dry is the only one yet to win over this type of trip and five of the field (Lunatick, Optiva Star, Uncle Dick, Buy The Dip and Blenheim Star) have all won over course and distance with Uncle Dick winning half a dozen races here over the last two years, according to Instant Expert...
...which shows quite a few of these in a decent light, especially the three lowest in the weights, Uncle Dick, Buy The Dip and Blenheim Star. Lunatick and Dream of Mischief have struggled to win at Class 4 and also over this trip, so they're probably the weakest so far. They'll run from stalls 7 and 9, so they won't be helped if there's a low draw bias, which we'll check now...
There's actually not that much of an advantage to be gained from the draw, although those drawn centrally have fared marginally better. Pace, however, is a different matter here at Brighton and the further forward you race, the greater the chance of making the frame and ultimately going on to win..
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Sadly, there's no real pace in the race and I suspect we'll get a falsely run affair which will play into the hands of those who are normally held up for a run, such as Charming Whisper, Blenheim Star and Dream Of Mischief if this field's recent races are anything to go by...
I think it might well be left to the likes of Buy The Dip to set the tempo of the race here.
Summary
Sandy Paradise, Dream of Mischief, Buy The Dip and Blenheim Star all finished in the first three home last time out, whilst Charming Whisper, Buy the Dip and Blenheim Star all have multiple 'recent' wins under their belts.
Uncle Dick, Buy The Dip and Blenheim Star were probably the picks from Instant Expert , whilst a lack of pace in the race looks like giving and advantage to Charming Whisper, Blenheim Star and Dream Of Mischief, although Buy The Dip might well try to nick a place or even the win from the front if afforded an easy lead.
Based on this précis of my analysis, the three that pop up most in terms of plus points are Blenheim Star, Buy the Dip and Charming Whisper and as of 5pm Tuesday, the field was priced as follows...
..but I think I marginally prefer Blenheim Star to Charming Whisper for the win.
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