Posts

Stat of the Day, 10th July 2019

Tuesday's pick was...

4.00 Wolverhampton : Poet's Pride @ 5/1 BOG 4th at 5/2 (Prominent, ridden 2f out, stayed on same pace inside final furlong, beaten by 1.5 lengths

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

3.20 Yarmouth :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Soloist @ 7/2 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 5, Flat Handicap for 3yo over 1m6f on Good To Firm worth £3429 to the winner...

Why?...

In an attempt to break the current cold spell, I'm going back to basics and simply using the information that we all have access to every day : the racecard, it's green icons and also my angles report (the red number next to the H2H icon)...

My personal list of possible bets for today has the following abbreviations next to this horse's name : JF14/30, TF 7/14/30, TJ, TJ30/365 & TC and I'll now briefly explain their relevance today.

JF30 : jockey Danny Tudhope is 31/122 (25.4% SR) for 92.1pts (+75.5% ROI) over the last 30 days, including 19/67 (28.4%) for 19.3pts (+28.8%) in the past fortnight.

TF7/14/30 : trainer William Haggas is 32/109 (29.4%) for 18.8pts (+17.2%) over the last 30 days, 18/53 (34%) for 21.1pts (+39.8%) over the past fortnight and 8/26 (30.8%) for 3.92pts (+15.1%) in the last week.

TJ & TJ30/365 : Messrs Haggas & Tudhope are 37/109 (34%) for 28.9pts (+26.5%) since the start of 2017, while more recently they are 20/53 (37.7%) for 27.3pts (+51.4%) in the past year and 5/12 (41.7%) for 12.5pts (+104.1%) in the last 30 days.

TC : Since 2013, William Haggas' record here at Yarmouth stands at 47/160 (29.4% SR) for 34.5pts (+21.6% ROI), from which his handicappers sent off at 5/1 or shorter are 20 from 50 (40%) for 22.8pts (+45.6%)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Soloist @ 7/2 BOG as offered by at least half a dozen major players at 7.30pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.20 Yarmouth

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 8th July 2019

Saturday's pick was...

4.10 Sandown : Magical Wish @ 3/1 BOG 2nd at 7/4 (Tracked leading pair on inside, pushed along over 2f out, went 2nd inside final furlong, hard ridden and stayed on towards finish, not quite pace to challenge, beaten by a neck)

Monday's pick runs in the...

8.40 Ripon :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Your first 30 days for just £1

Fairy Fast @ 5/1 BOG

...in a 14-runner, Class 5, Flat Handicap for 3yo over 6f on Good To Firm worth £3752 to the winner...

Why?...

Yes, another David O'Meara trained horse ridden by Danny Tudhope, but from a different perspective today. Danny is still riding really well clocking up the winners and both he and David have good records here at Ripon individually and also as a partnership (31/145 = 21.4% SR) for 71.8pts @ 49.5% ROI in handicaps here), but I said enough about the partnership last week, so I'm not delving into that stat today, although it does remain a very valid starting point!

Instead I'm going to focus on the form of this 3 yr old filly and share a saved micro-system based on a quirk of results. Let me explain : this filly won here over course and distance four starts ago and her form since then reads 222, culminating in a two length-defeat at Thirsk five weeks ago when staying on strongest over 5f.

She's now back up in trip to her last winning distance and that run also qualifies her for a micro of mine, simply labelled "2-2-2" which basically highlights horses who finished as runner-up in each of their last three runs. The only restrictions imposed are that they need to be running in a UK Class 2 to 5 contest, 6-45 days after a defeat by a neck to 10 lengths.

Since the start of 2016, I've had 461 qualifiers yielding 116 winners (25.2% SR) and 91.8pts profit at an ROI of 19.9%. I appreciate you might not want 10-12 qualifiers per month from one angle, so the following filters are applicable today...

  • 84/316 (26.6%) for 139.1pts (+44%) in fields of 7-14 runners
  • 72/326 (22.1%) for 65.5pts (+20.1%) in handicaps
  • 71/330 (21.5%) for 98.3pts (+29.8%) at odds of 15/8 to 11/1
  • 50/170 (29.4%) for 35.1pts (+20.6%) on the Flat
  • 46/153 (30.1%) for 33.7pts (+22%) at Class 5
  • 33/112 (29.5%) for 36.3pts (+32.4%) from female runners
  • 21/66 (31.8%) for 28pts (+42.4%) on Good to Firm ground
  • 20/73 (27.4%) for 55.9pts (+76.6%) at 31-45 dslr
  • 20/90 (22.2%) for 36.2pts (+40.2%) stepping up in trip by 0.5 to 1 furlong
  • and 18/41 (43.9%) for 44.7pts (+109.1%) in July

...and from the above and relevant today... at odds of 15/8 to 11/1 in 7-14 runner Flat handicaps = 24 from 75 (32% SR) for 64.5pts (+86% ROI) and these include...

  • 11/28 (39.3%) for 27.5pts (+98.3%) at Class 5
  • 8/22 (36.4%) for 36.5pts (+166%) from females
  • and 5/12 941.7%) for 17.8pts (+148.4%) from Class 5 females...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Fairy Fast @ 5/1 BOG as offered by BetVictor & Hills at 5.05pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 8.40 Ripon

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 8th July 2019

Saturday's pick was...

4.10 Sandown : Magical Wish @ 3/1 BOG 2nd at 7/4 (Tracked leading pair on inside, pushed along over 2f out, went 2nd inside final furlong, hard ridden and stayed on towards finish, not quite pace to challenge, beaten by a neck)

Monday's pick runs in the...

8.40 Ripon :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Fairy Fast @ 5/1 BOG

...in a 14-runner, Class 5, Flat Handicap for 3yo over 6f on Good To Firm worth £3752 to the winner...

Why?...

Yes, another David O'Meara trained horse ridden by Danny Tudhope, but from a different perspective today. Danny is still riding really well clocking up the winners and both he and David have good records here at Ripon individually and also as a partnership (31/145 = 21.4% SR) for 71.8pts @ 49.5% ROI in handicaps here), but I said enough about the partnership last week, so I'm not delving into that stat today, although it does remain a very valid starting point!

Instead I'm going to focus on the form of this 3 yr old filly and share a saved micro-system based on a quirk of results. Let me explain : this filly won here over course and distance four starts ago and her form since then reads 222, culminating in a two length-defeat at Thirsk five weeks ago when staying on strongest over 5f.

She's now back up in trip to her last winning distance and that run also qualifies her for a micro of mine, simply labelled "2-2-2" which basically highlights horses who finished as runner-up in each of their last three runs. The only restrictions imposed are that they need to be running in a UK Class 2 to 5 contest, 6-45 days after a defeat by a neck to 10 lengths.

Since the start of 2016, I've had 461 qualifiers yielding 116 winners (25.2% SR) and 91.8pts profit at an ROI of 19.9%. I appreciate you might not want 10-12 qualifiers per month from one angle, so the following filters are applicable today...

  • 84/316 (26.6%) for 139.1pts (+44%) in fields of 7-14 runners
  • 72/326 (22.1%) for 65.5pts (+20.1%) in handicaps
  • 71/330 (21.5%) for 98.3pts (+29.8%) at odds of 15/8 to 11/1
  • 50/170 (29.4%) for 35.1pts (+20.6%) on the Flat
  • 46/153 (30.1%) for 33.7pts (+22%) at Class 5
  • 33/112 (29.5%) for 36.3pts (+32.4%) from female runners
  • 21/66 (31.8%) for 28pts (+42.4%) on Good to Firm ground
  • 20/73 (27.4%) for 55.9pts (+76.6%) at 31-45 dslr
  • 20/90 (22.2%) for 36.2pts (+40.2%) stepping up in trip by 0.5 to 1 furlong
  • and 18/41 (43.9%) for 44.7pts (+109.1%) in July

...and from the above and relevant today... at odds of 15/8 to 11/1 in 7-14 runner Flat handicaps = 24 from 75 (32% SR) for 64.5pts (+86% ROI) and these include...

  • 11/28 (39.3%) for 27.5pts (+98.3%) at Class 5
  • 8/22 (36.4%) for 36.5pts (+166%) from females
  • and 5/12 941.7%) for 17.8pts (+148.4%) from Class 5 females...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Fairy Fast @ 5/1 BOG as offered by BetVictor & Hills at 5.05pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 8.40 Ripon

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 4th July 2019

Wednesday's pick was...

5.40 Thirsk : Atletico @ 5/1 BOG 4th at 9/2 (Mid-division, driven over 2f out, ridden and stayed on to chase leaders inside final furlong, no impression)

Thursday's pick runs in the...

3.30 Haydock :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Tukhoom @ 7/2 BOG

...in a 13-runner, Class 5, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 7f on Good To Firm ground worth £4852 to the winner...

Why?...

This 6 yr old gelding has finished 2331 in his last four outings, all at this Class 5 grade and over trips of 7 to 8.5 furlongs. He was a comfortable 4 lengths winner in 16-runner field last time out, 13 days ago and now makes his yard debut for David O'Meara.

You wouldn't need to be too clued up about racing to guess/assume that Danny Tudhope will be in the saddle today and the trainer/jockey partnership continues to churn out winners. This is a tried and tested partnership and their success has been well documented by myself and many others, so I won't delve too deeply there today (I hear a collective sigh of relief from the readers).

Both rider and handler come here in great form, Danny of course had a great Royal Ascot and whilst his 30-day stats are impressive at 28 from 107 (26.2% SR), his form has improved further more recently with 15 winners from 49 (30.6%) over the past fortnight rising to 12/28 (42.9%) in the past week : here is a man at the top of his game.

Mr O'Meara, unsurprisingly, also continues to clock up the winners and whilst not quite as spectacular as his jockey, an 8 from 35 (22.9% SR) record over the past week isn't to be sniffed at. This invariably means that they've partnered up well of late and over the last three weeks alone the combo is 5 from 16 (31.25% SR) for 5.17pts (+32.3% ROI) with horses sent off at Evens to 9/2, which is where we should be today.

The only surprise to me about the partnership is that it's still profitable to follow. I expect this won't last for too much longer and we'll need to look for niche angles to exploit the market (thankfully, that's how I work!).

Now, it's worth knowing (if not concentrating on) the fact that David O'Meara's runners who won LTO are 36 from 202 (17.8%) on the Flat over the last 3 (inc. this one) seasons, but as he's only had this horse for less than a fortnight, it's probably more relevant to look at how he fares with new arrivals to the yard and they are 24 from 220 (10.9% SR) for 175.9pts (+79.9% ROI) since the start of 2017.

That strike rate might not look the best, but as a starting point for blind backing, 1 in 10 isn't bad at all for new recruits to a yard. Obviously we want to see better numbers than that, so the following logical angles can be applied today, as from those 220 newbies...

  • 20/154 (13%) for 182.5pts (+118.5%) from male runners
  • 18/129 (14%) for 233.9pts (+181.3%) from April to July
  • 13/79 (16.9%) for 139.4pts (+176.4%) with Danny Tudhope aboard
  • 12/113 (10.6%) for 125.3pts (+110.9%) at Class 5
  • 8/72 (11.1%) for 89pts (+123.6%) in handicaps
  • and 4/31 (12.9%) for 15.4pts (+49.7%) from horses in David's care for less than two months

...from which, here's one of those niche angles we're likely to need going forward...

...David O'Meara's new male recruits ridden by Danny Tudhope in April-July (simple enough, isn't it?) are 10/39 (25.6% SR) for 164.4pts (+421.4% ROI) over the last three years, including 7/27 (25.9%) for 86.1pts (+318.8%) at Classes 4-6.

...pointing to... a 1pt win bet on Tukhoom @ 7/2 BOG as offered by pretty much everyone at 5.50pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.30 Haydock

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 21st June 2019

Thursday's pick was...

6.00 Ffos Las : Grania O'Malley @ 3/1 BOG WON at 2/1 (2nd until led before 10th, soon 4 lengths clear, maintained advantage until last, driven and held on gamely close home)

Friday's pick runs in the...

7.50 Newmarket :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Agincourt @ 7/2 or 10/3 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 3 Fillies Flat Handicap  for 3yo+ over 7f on Good To Soft ground worth £9704 to the winner...

Why?...

This 4 yr old filly has three wins and two runner-up finishes in her last six starts (form = 181212), winning alternate races and making herself of instant appeal to those who like numerical sequences 😉

She was less than a length behind Victory Wave last time out (15 days ago) in a Class 2 contest at Chelmsford over a mile, so she's dropping in class and trip today for her reappearance, whilst her victor from that race has since stepped up to Listed class.

She has 3 wins from 9 overall, from which the following increase her appeal today...

  • 3/4 in fields of 9 or more runners
  • 3/6 over 7f/1m
  • 2/5 in handicaps
  • 1/1 at Class 3
  • 1/1 on Good to Soft
  • and 1/2 over 7f

Danny Tudhope rode her to victory two starts ago (he wasn't on board LTO) and he has a win and a place from three starts on this filly and he arrives here in excellent form, maintaining a consistent 20%+ strike rate over the last couple months, including 6 winners from 18 over the last five days, amongst which he has 3 wins and a place from just five rides at Royal Ascot!

Regarding Mr Tudhope, much has been written (including by me!) about his record/relationship with David O'Meara, so I'm not going to plough that well-worn furrow and bore you with those figures today, but I do want to touch on one aspect of their partnership that I do keep an eye out for, as some of you might not be aware that the combo are 14 from 51 (27.5% SR) for 47.5pts (+93.1% ROI) with runners sent off at 10/1 and shorter in Fillies' handicaps on the Flat.

And of this 14/51 record, the partnership is...

  • 13/38 (34.2%) for 47.1pts (+124.1%) with runners last seen 6-30 days earlier
  • 12/38 (31.6%) for 48.5pts (+127.7%) in 3yo+ races
  • 5/18 (27.8%) for 23.4pts (+129.9%) at Class 3
  • 4/9 (44.4%) for 19.2pts (+213.4%) over 7f
  • 4/9 (44.4%) for 17.1pts (+190.2%) from LTO runners-up
  • and 3/6 (50%) for 15pts (+250%) from those dropping down a class

...and if you wanted 95% of the original profits from just 55% of the bets, then those racing in 3yo+ contests after a break of 6-30 days are 11 from 28 (39.3%) for 45.2pts (+161.4% ROI)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Agincourt @ 7/2 or 10/3 BOG as offered by Bet365 & Ladbrokes at 6.10pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 7.50 Newmarket

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 3rd June 2019

Saturday's pick was...

4.30 Epsom : Telecaster @ 5/1 BOG 13th at 3/1 (With leader, keen, led over 5f out, hung right and headed over 1f out, kept on under pressure)

Monday's pick runs in the...

4.15 Thirsk :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Your first 30 days for just £1

Ingleby Hollow @ 5/1 BOG

...in a 10-runner, Class 5, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m4f  on Good to Firm ground worth £5715 to the winner...

Why?...

This 7 yr old gelding comes here after running without much success at Class 4 (although he did win a couple of hurdle contests over the summer, suggesting stamina wouldn't be his downfall here) and now drops back to Class 5 company for the first time since winning over 1m5f at Hamilton 11 months ago. That was off a mark of 76 under today's jockey Danny Tudhope and the drop back in class allied to a mark now 4lbs lower than that run suggests he well be weighted to score here.

He's currently 6 from 25 (24%) at Class 5, 5 from 22 (22.7%) under Danny Tudhope, 5 from 23 (21.7%) wearing a tongue tie and has a win and a place from two previous visits to this track : decent figures for an essentially Class 5 horse.

His trainer, David O'Meara, does well with this type of runner at this venue : more specifically, his Class 4/5 handicappers are 27 from 156 (17.3% SR) for 54.5pts (+34.9% ROI) backed blindly here at Thirsk since 2011. As usual, I'm not suggesting you follow the angle doggedly, so here are some ways of reducing the outlay whilst increasing both the SR and the ROI, as of the 27 winners...

  • 26 were from 137 (19%) running off marks of 67-85 giving 65.7pts at an ROI of 48%
  • 23/111 (20.7%) for 68.7pts (+61.9%) from 4-8 yr olds
  • 22/105 (20.9%) for 52.7% (+50.2%) on Good/Good to Firm ground
  • 20/91 (22%) for 60.1pts (+66.1%) from April to July
  • 18/61 (29.5%) for 64.5pts (+105.8%) ridden by Danny Tudhope
  • 17/44 (38.6%) for 25.2pts (+57.3%) sent off at odds shorter than 5/1
  • 8/29 (27.6%) for 19.8pts (+68.4%) ran 6-10 days earlier
  • 7/22 (31.8%) for 30pts with one previous Thirsk win
  • and 6/22 (27.3%) for 17.4pts (+78.9%) over this 1m4f course and distance

Now, I know that some of you like me to combine some of the filters to produce a composite angle/micro-system to take forward, so I'd suggest...

...Danny Tudhope on David O'Meara's 4-8yr olds running off marks of 67-85 on Good/Good to Firm ground in Class 4/5 handicaps at Thirsk, which would give you 13 winners from 34 (38.2% SR) for 55.5pts (+163.3% ROI) : essentially reducing the original stat by 122 bets, but giving an extra point of profit! And from this 13/34 result, there are 5 winners from 7 (71.4% SR) for 27.8pts (+396.5% ROI) over the 1m4f course and distance...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Ingleby Hollow @ 5/1 BOG which was offered by Bet365, BetVictor, Black Type, SkyBet & Unibet at 6.00pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.15 Thirsk

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 3rd June 2019

Saturday's pick was...

4.30 Epsom : Telecaster @ 5/1 BOG 13th at 3/1 (With leader, keen, led over 5f out, hung right and headed over 1f out, kept on under pressure)

Monday's pick runs in the...

4.15 Thirsk :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Ingleby Hollow @ 5/1 BOG

...in a 10-runner, Class 5, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m4f  on Good to Firm ground worth £5715 to the winner...

Why?...

This 7 yr old gelding comes here after running without much success at Class 4 (although he did win a couple of hurdle contests over the summer, suggesting stamina wouldn't be his downfall here) and now drops back to Class 5 company for the first time since winning over 1m5f at Hamilton 11 months ago. That was off a mark of 76 under today's jockey Danny Tudhope and the drop back in class allied to a mark now 4lbs lower than that run suggests he well be weighted to score here.

He's currently 6 from 25 (24%) at Class 5, 5 from 22 (22.7%) under Danny Tudhope, 5 from 23 (21.7%) wearing a tongue tie and has a win and a place from two previous visits to this track : decent figures for an essentially Class 5 horse.

His trainer, David O'Meara, does well with this type of runner at this venue : more specifically, his Class 4/5 handicappers are 27 from 156 (17.3% SR) for 54.5pts (+34.9% ROI) backed blindly here at Thirsk since 2011. As usual, I'm not suggesting you follow the angle doggedly, so here are some ways of reducing the outlay whilst increasing both the SR and the ROI, as of the 27 winners...

  • 26 were from 137 (19%) running off marks of 67-85 giving 65.7pts at an ROI of 48%
  • 23/111 (20.7%) for 68.7pts (+61.9%) from 4-8 yr olds
  • 22/105 (20.9%) for 52.7% (+50.2%) on Good/Good to Firm ground
  • 20/91 (22%) for 60.1pts (+66.1%) from April to July
  • 18/61 (29.5%) for 64.5pts (+105.8%) ridden by Danny Tudhope
  • 17/44 (38.6%) for 25.2pts (+57.3%) sent off at odds shorter than 5/1
  • 8/29 (27.6%) for 19.8pts (+68.4%) ran 6-10 days earlier
  • 7/22 (31.8%) for 30pts with one previous Thirsk win
  • and 6/22 (27.3%) for 17.4pts (+78.9%) over this 1m4f course and distance

Now, I know that some of you like me to combine some of the filters to produce a composite angle/micro-system to take forward, so I'd suggest...

...Danny Tudhope on David O'Meara's 4-8yr olds running off marks of 67-85 on Good/Good to Firm ground in Class 4/5 handicaps at Thirsk, which would give you 13 winners from 34 (38.2% SR) for 55.5pts (+163.3% ROI) : essentially reducing the original stat by 122 bets, but giving an extra point of profit! And from this 13/34 result, there are 5 winners from 7 (71.4% SR) for 27.8pts (+396.5% ROI) over the 1m4f course and distance...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Ingleby Hollow @ 5/1 BOG which was offered by Bet365, BetVictor, Black Type, SkyBet & Unibet at 6.00pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.15 Thirsk

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 20th May 2019

Saturday's pick was...

5.40 Thirsk : Ginger Jam @ 11/4 BOG 3rd at 7/4 (Dwelt, held up, headway over 2f out, went 2nd 1f out, edged left inside final furlong, lost 2nd and stayed on same pace, been by half a length)

Monday's pick runs in the...

3.15 Carlisle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Lamloom @ 11/4 BOG

...in an 8-runner, Class 4, Flat Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m on Good to Firm ground worth £7439 to the winner...

Your first 30 days for just £1

Why?...

Well, in all honesty, this 5 yr old gelding hasn't actually covered himself in glory during seven consecutive defeats in a Class 4 handicap at Pontefract in early July of last year, but there are mitigating circumstances.

He won that day off a mark of 86, but has since been running at Classes 2 & 3 off marks of 92 to 94, before finally getting some relief from the handicapper last time out when eased down to 88. He now drops back into Class 4 company for the first time since that last win and is now weighted a pound below that last winning mark, so now should be the time to at least give him a second glance.

Career stats aren't the best with just 3 wins from 24 on the Flat so far, but those 3 wins are relevant to today's conditions, as...

  • All 3 were achieved over 1m to 1m1f, all with Danny Tudhope in the saddle, all off marks from 78-86 and all withing a 6 week period of the year from mid-April to early July.
  • 2 were at Class 4, 2 were at odds of 3/1 or shorter and 2 were in fields of 5-8 runners

In fact...in fields of 5-8 runners off a mark of 78-86 with Danny in the saddle during that 6-week time frame, Lamloom is 3 from 9 (33.3% SR) for 8.42pts (+93.6% ROI), including...

  • 2/5 (40%) for 9.43pts (+188.5%) at Class 4
  • 2/5 (40%) for 0.5pts (+10%) shorter than 4/1
  • and 2/4 (50%) in fields of 5-8 runners.

He is trained by David O'Meara whose runners are 13/61 (21.3% SR) for 42.83pts (+70.2% ROI) over the last fortnight, including 2 winners and a place from 4 at Ripon yesterday.

Jockey Danny Tudhope is also in good touch, winning 25 of 105 (23.8% SR) for 50.39pts (+48% ROI) over the last 30 days...

...whilst together the trainer/jockey partnership is 15/54 (27.8%) for 59.78pts (+110.7%) in that same 30 day period.

Their success together isn't really too surprising and many people (myself included) have written plenty about this partnership, but as you all know by now, I'm not one for following an angle blindly, so with this duo, my first instinct is to look for the on the Flat at trips of 5f to 1m2f and this gives us 287 winners from 1697 runners (16.9% SR) for 316pts (+18.6% ROI) profit since the start of 2012.

So that I'm not accused of using old data to prop up my pick, I'll just focus on those qualifying from that criteria since the start of the 2017 campaign and that gives us 85 winners from 519 (16.4% SR) and 203.9pts of profit at a very healthy ROI of 39.4%, not counting yesterday's 5/1 winner from just two runners.

This angle actually gives us two possibles for today (as does some of the data below), but I prefer Lamloom's chances to those of Star Shield who is currently 3/1 BOG in the 5.15 race at this venue, and further analysis of those 519 runners shows that...

  • those rated (OR) 75-94 are 36/213 (16.9%) for 39.3pts (+18.5%)
  • those dropped 1-5lbs by the assessor are 28/182 (15.4%) for 39.6pts (+21.8%)
  • those last seen 4-15 days earlier are 35/177 (19.8%) for 74.7pts (+42.2%)
  • over trips of 7.5f to 8.5f : 27/152 (17.8%) for 46.3pts (+30.5%)
  • and in May : 25/134 (18.7%) for 142.8pts (+106.5%)

...whilst based upon the above...during March to May over 6f to 10f off marks of 75-94, but 1-5lbs lower than LTO = 10 from 39 (25.6% SR) for 104pts (+266.7% ROI)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Lamloom @ 11/4 BOG which was widely available at 6.o5pm on Sunday, although you could get an extra quarter point from Betfair/Paddy Power, but they don't go BOG until 8.00am on raceday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.15 Carlisle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 20th May 2019

Saturday's pick was...

5.40 Thirsk : Ginger Jam @ 11/4 BOG 3rd at 7/4 (Dwelt, held up, headway over 2f out, went 2nd 1f out, edged left inside final furlong, lost 2nd and stayed on same pace, been by half a length)

Monday's pick runs in the...

3.15 Carlisle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Lamloom @ 11/4 BOG

...in an 8-runner, Class 4, Flat Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m on Good to Firm ground worth £7439 to the winner...

Why?...

Well, in all honesty, this 5 yr old gelding hasn't actually covered himself in glory during seven consecutive defeats in a Class 4 handicap at Pontefract in early July of last year, but there are mitigating circumstances.

He won that day off a mark of 86, but has since been running at Classes 2 & 3 off marks of 92 to 94, before finally getting some relief from the handicapper last time out when eased down to 88. He now drops back into Class 4 company for the first time since that last win and is now weighted a pound below that last winning mark, so now should be the time to at least give him a second glance.

Career stats aren't the best with just 3 wins from 24 on the Flat so far, but those 3 wins are relevant to today's conditions, as...

  • All 3 were achieved over 1m to 1m1f, all with Danny Tudhope in the saddle, all off marks from 78-86 and all withing a 6 week period of the year from mid-April to early July.
  • 2 were at Class 4, 2 were at odds of 3/1 or shorter and 2 were in fields of 5-8 runners

In fact...in fields of 5-8 runners off a mark of 78-86 with Danny in the saddle during that 6-week time frame, Lamloom is 3 from 9 (33.3% SR) for 8.42pts (+93.6% ROI), including...

  • 2/5 (40%) for 9.43pts (+188.5%) at Class 4
  • 2/5 (40%) for 0.5pts (+10%) shorter than 4/1
  • and 2/4 (50%) in fields of 5-8 runners.

He is trained by David O'Meara whose runners are 13/61 (21.3% SR) for 42.83pts (+70.2% ROI) over the last fortnight, including 2 winners and a place from 4 at Ripon yesterday.

Jockey Danny Tudhope is also in good touch, winning 25 of 105 (23.8% SR) for 50.39pts (+48% ROI) over the last 30 days...

...whilst together the trainer/jockey partnership is 15/54 (27.8%) for 59.78pts (+110.7%) in that same 30 day period.

Their success together isn't really too surprising and many people (myself included) have written plenty about this partnership, but as you all know by now, I'm not one for following an angle blindly, so with this duo, my first instinct is to look for the on the Flat at trips of 5f to 1m2f and this gives us 287 winners from 1697 runners (16.9% SR) for 316pts (+18.6% ROI) profit since the start of 2012.

So that I'm not accused of using old data to prop up my pick, I'll just focus on those qualifying from that criteria since the start of the 2017 campaign and that gives us 85 winners from 519 (16.4% SR) and 203.9pts of profit at a very healthy ROI of 39.4%, not counting yesterday's 5/1 winner from just two runners.

This angle actually gives us two possibles for today (as does some of the data below), but I prefer Lamloom's chances to those of Star Shield who is currently 3/1 BOG in the 5.15 race at this venue, and further analysis of those 519 runners shows that...

  • those rated (OR) 75-94 are 36/213 (16.9%) for 39.3pts (+18.5%)
  • those dropped 1-5lbs by the assessor are 28/182 (15.4%) for 39.6pts (+21.8%)
  • those last seen 4-15 days earlier are 35/177 (19.8%) for 74.7pts (+42.2%)
  • over trips of 7.5f to 8.5f : 27/152 (17.8%) for 46.3pts (+30.5%)
  • and in May : 25/134 (18.7%) for 142.8pts (+106.5%)

...whilst based upon the above...during March to May over 6f to 10f off marks of 75-94, but 1-5lbs lower than LTO = 10 from 39 (25.6% SR) for 104pts (+266.7% ROI)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Lamloom @ 11/4 BOG which was widely available at 6.o5pm on Sunday, although you could get an extra quarter point from Betfair/Paddy Power, but they don't go BOG until 8.00am on raceday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.15 Carlisle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 21st May 2018

Saturday's Runner was...

8.05 Uttoxeter : Northandsouth @ 11/4 BOG 7th at 11/4 (Held up in rear, modest effort 3 out, no impression, well beaten 2 out)

We start the new week via Monday's...

3.05 Redcar :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Your first 30 days for just £1

Liamba @ 3/1 BOG

A 9-runner, Class 6, 5f Handicap (3yo) on Good to Firm ground worth £3493 to the winner... 

Why?

An unexposed three year old filly on handicap debut after steady progression in three outings so far, yet is dropped in class today.

Her trainer David O'Meara is no stranger to the winners' enclosure here at Redcar either, clocking up 51 winners from 308 runners over the last six seasons with that 16.6% strike rate worth 55.9pts (+18.2% ROI) to his followers and whilst backing his runners blindly here is profitable, we can do better than 18% by eliminating some losing bets via the following logical filters...

  • 2 to 4 yr olds are 42/232 (19.1%) for 80.4pts (+34.7%)
  • those rated (OR) 50 to 90 are 44/231 (19.1%) for 76.2pts (+33%)
  • those priced at 9/4 to 12/1 are 44/216 (20.4%) for 100.6pts (+46.6%)
  • handicappers are 38/207 (18.4%) for 60.4pts (+29.2%)
  • those ridden by Danny Tudhope are 28/114 (24.6%) for 54.7pts (+81.2%)
  • those last seen 4 to 15 days ago are 21/103 (20.4%) for 61.75pts (+60%)
  • Class 6 runners are 20/90 (22.2%) for 37.6 pts (+41.8%)
  • females are 13/79 (16.5%) for 66.3pts (+84%)
  • in May : 14/74 (18.9%) for 15.8pts (+21.4%)
  • last season : 12/60 (20%) for 34pts (+56.7%)
  • in 3yo races : 10/54 (18.5%) for 13.7pts (+25.3%)
  • and over this 5f course and distance : 8/44 (18.2%) for 18.6pts (+42.3%)

from which...2-4 yr old handicappers rated 50 to 90 and priced at 9/4 to 12/1 are 27/108 (25% SR) for 103.1pts (+95.5% ROI) with a 7/21 (33.3%) for 29.8pts (+141.8%) record last year.

And despite David not having any of 11 handicap debutants win so far this Flat season, he's certainly due one and it wouldn't be unusual for that to happen as over the last five Flat seasons, his runners are 31/208 (14.9% SR) for 90.8pts (+43.7% ROI) on handicap debut, including of relevance today...

  • those ridden by Danny Tudhope : 19/90 (21.1%) for 79.3pts (+88.1%)
  • at Class 6 : 11/63 (17.5%) for 36.5pts (+57.9%)
  • in May : 11/45 (24.4%) for 74.4pts (+165.3%)
  • and here at Redcar : 3/15 (20%) for 1.65pts (+11%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Liamba @ 3/1 BOG which was available from BetVictor, Paddy Power & Bet365 and Unibet at 6.45pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.05 Redcar

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 21st May 2018

Saturday's Runner was...

8.05 Uttoxeter : Northandsouth @ 11/4 BOG 7th at 11/4 (Held up in rear, modest effort 3 out, no impression, well beaten 2 out)

We start the new week via Monday's...

3.05 Redcar :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Liamba @ 3/1 BOG

A 9-runner, Class 6, 5f Handicap (3yo) on Good to Firm ground worth £3493 to the winner... 

Why?

An unexposed three year old filly on handicap debut after steady progression in three outings so far, yet is dropped in class today.

Her trainer David O'Meara is no stranger to the winners' enclosure here at Redcar either, clocking up 51 winners from 308 runners over the last six seasons with that 16.6% strike rate worth 55.9pts (+18.2% ROI) to his followers and whilst backing his runners blindly here is profitable, we can do better than 18% by eliminating some losing bets via the following logical filters...

  • 2 to 4 yr olds are 42/232 (19.1%) for 80.4pts (+34.7%)
  • those rated (OR) 50 to 90 are 44/231 (19.1%) for 76.2pts (+33%)
  • those priced at 9/4 to 12/1 are 44/216 (20.4%) for 100.6pts (+46.6%)
  • handicappers are 38/207 (18.4%) for 60.4pts (+29.2%)
  • those ridden by Danny Tudhope are 28/114 (24.6%) for 54.7pts (+81.2%)
  • those last seen 4 to 15 days ago are 21/103 (20.4%) for 61.75pts (+60%)
  • Class 6 runners are 20/90 (22.2%) for 37.6 pts (+41.8%)
  • females are 13/79 (16.5%) for 66.3pts (+84%)
  • in May : 14/74 (18.9%) for 15.8pts (+21.4%)
  • last season : 12/60 (20%) for 34pts (+56.7%)
  • in 3yo races : 10/54 (18.5%) for 13.7pts (+25.3%)
  • and over this 5f course and distance : 8/44 (18.2%) for 18.6pts (+42.3%)

from which...2-4 yr old handicappers rated 50 to 90 and priced at 9/4 to 12/1 are 27/108 (25% SR) for 103.1pts (+95.5% ROI) with a 7/21 (33.3%) for 29.8pts (+141.8%) record last year.

And despite David not having any of 11 handicap debutants win so far this Flat season, he's certainly due one and it wouldn't be unusual for that to happen as over the last five Flat seasons, his runners are 31/208 (14.9% SR) for 90.8pts (+43.7% ROI) on handicap debut, including of relevance today...

  • those ridden by Danny Tudhope : 19/90 (21.1%) for 79.3pts (+88.1%)
  • at Class 6 : 11/63 (17.5%) for 36.5pts (+57.9%)
  • in May : 11/45 (24.4%) for 74.4pts (+165.3%)
  • and here at Redcar : 3/15 (20%) for 1.65pts (+11%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Liamba @ 3/1 BOG which was available from BetVictor, Paddy Power & Bet365 and Unibet at 6.45pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.05 Redcar

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 12th May 2018

Friday's Runner was...

2.40 Market Rasen : The Blue Bomber @ 9/2 BOG 4th at 5/2 (Tracked leaders, went 2nd after 3 out, ridden after last, kept on towards finish, beaten by little more than a length)

We end a disappointing week with Saturday's...

6.45 Thirsk :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Stonific @ 6/1 BOG

A 14-runner, Class 6,  1m4f  Flat Handicap (4yo+) on good to firm ground worth £6728 to the winner... 

Why?

This is a very lightly raced, but in-form 5 yr old gelding. Just 5 starts to date and only two on turf so far. He was only beaten by a length as a runner-up on his turf debut at Doncaster when staying on late over 1m2f before winning last time out a fortnight ago.

That was at Haydock in a Class 4 handicap where he stayed on well again to get up by a neck, once again looking like a longer trip would suit him better. He gets that (+1.5f) today and with the yard's first choice jockey booked, more is expected today.

That jockey is Danny Tudhope and he rides this Thirsk track really well, winning 42 of 217 (19.4% SR) races here since 2011, generating profits of 104.4pts (+48.1% ROI) along the way for those who like to follow certain jockeys at certain tracks.

Trainer David O'Meara's horses are in very good nick right now too, as exemplified by 11 winners from 57 (19.3% SR) for 31pts (+54.4% ROI) over the last two weeks with those running on turf winning 11 of 51 (21.6%) for 37pts (+72.5%). Of these 51 Flat (turf) runners...

  • handicappers are 9/39 (23.1%) for 38.5pts (+98.8%)
  • those ridden by Danny Tudhope are 9/25 (36%) for 43.3pts (+173.2%)
  • handicappers ridden by Danny Tudhope are 7/18 (38.9%) for 39.8pts (+221.2%)
  • here at Thirsk : 2/8 (25%) for 19.4pts (+242.5%)
  • and handicappers ridden by Danny Tudhope here at Thirsk : 1/3 (33.3%) for 16.05pts (+535%)

Those recent trainer/jockey figures are no purple patch nor a surprise, as since the start of the 2012 season, Messrs O'Meara & Tudhope have teamed up 1314 times in Flat (turf) handicaps, winning 217 (16.5% SR) of them for profits of 222.7pts at an decent ROI of 16.9%, from which...

  • here at Thirsk : 17/80 (21.25%) for 33.5pts (+41.8%)
  • and this season alone = 9/27 (33.3%) for 46.7pts (+172.9%) already!

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Stonific @ 6/1 BOG which was available from Betfair & Paddy Power at 8.25pm on Friday (although I've just taken 7/1 with Sky). To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 6.45 Thirsk

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 21st November 2017

Monday's Result :

2.40 Plumpton : Chef D'Equipe @ 9/4 BOG 6th at 15/8 Keen, held up in last pair, pushed along after 3 out, plugged on, never on terms. Held up way too far off the pace IMO and was never really put into the race. Seems like trial & error tactics going on with this horse, as opposed to any real plan.

Next up is Tuesday's...

1.40 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Short Work @ 7/2 BOG

A Class 4, 3yo+, A/W handicap sprint over 6f on Polytrack worth £4,690 to the winner.

A fairly brief back to basics style approach today with a 4 yr old gelding who already has 5 wins and a place from 6 starts over today's 6 furlong trip, whilst in the 5 races with jockey Danny Tudhope on his back, he has 4 wins and a place, so the task ahead should be right up his street.

He's trained by David O'Meara, whose best figures are admittedly achieved in the North and in Scotland, but there is a niche where he excels here too. And that's with runners priced at 4/1 and shorter on the A/W here. We are only looking at 17 runners in recent times, but with 9 winners (52.9% SR) producing 16.6pts (+97.6% ROI) profit, they cannot be ignored. Nor can the fact that of those 17 runners, Danny Tudhope has 4 winners from 6 (66.6%) for 10.47pts (+174.6%).

My final point of reference is possibly normally one of your own starting points, ie the Geegeez racecards. And I'm looking at the pace first and it tells me that horses who lead fare best over this course and distance and our boy is one of three runners with the joint highest pace ranking.

These three "pacesetters" are drawn in 6, 7 and 8, so we're in the pace pocket and the pace/draw heatmap suggests leaders drawn higher get the best results, so from stall 8, we should be well placed.

...all of which points to ... a 1pt win bet on Short Work @ 7/2 BOG which was available from Bet365, Betfair, Paddy Power, Skybet & Sunbets at 5.40pm on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 1.40 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 18th July 2017

Monday's Result :

5.00 Ayr : Donnachies Girl @ 7/2 BOG 2nd at 10/3 Led narrowly, edged right over 2f out, ridden over 1f out, headed when carried left inside final furlong, kept on, no extra towards finish.

Tuesday's pick goes in the...

5.15 Beverley...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Clenymistra @ 9/2 BOG

Why?

This 3 yr old filly steps back up to 1m2f here, a trip she has only run at twice before, finishing 2nd on the A/W at Chelmsford last October and then winning on Good to Firm (like today) at Redcar on her return from a 214 day break from racing.

That win at Redcar was also the only previous time she'd been ridden by today's jockey, Danny Tudhope. So we've got positives re: trip, going and jockey, what about her trainer?

Well, if Danny Tudhope's riding, you won't be overly surprised to find she's trained by David O'Meara, who has an excellent record in handicap contests here at Beverley, standing at 39 winners from 204 (19.1% SR) for profits of 39.2pts (+19.2% ROI)...

And with today's contest in mind, those 204 runners include...

  • since 2013 : 33/158 (20.9%) for 68.74pts at an ROI of 43.5%
  • those priced at 9/1 and shorter : 37/155 (23.9%) for 50.82pts (+32.8%)
  • on Good to Firm ground : 23/120 (19.2%) for 20.86pts (+17.4%)
  • those ridden by Danny Tudhope are 18/84 (21.4%) for 10.67pts (+12.7%)
  • those last seen 6 to 10 days ago : 15/44 (34.1%) for 25.87pts (+58.8%)
  • over the 1m2f course and distance : 8/43 (18.6%) for 14.59pts (+33.9%)

AND...since 2013 at odds of 9/1 and shorter on Good/Good to Firm : 26/112 (23.2% SR) for 50.34pts (+45% ROI), from which...

  • Danny Tudhope is 13/52 (25%) for 15.81pts (+30.4%)
  • those who last ran 6-10 days earlier are 10/25 (40%) for 30.24pts (+121%)
  • over this 1m2f trip : 4/21 (19.1%) for 3.84pts (+18.3%)

...quantifying...a 1pt win bet on Clenymistra @ 9/2 BOG which was widely available at 5.40pm on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 5.15 Beverley...

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 28th April 2016

Wednesday's Result :

3.30 Wolverhampton: Ilzam @ 7/2 BOG 6th at 4/1 (Chased leaders, ridden over 1f out, no extra)

Thursday's pick goes in the...

4.10 Redcar

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Dandyleekie at 11/4 BOG.

Why?

Since the start of the 2012 campaign, trainer David O'Meara's runners have won 35 times from 190 (18.4% SR) efforts on the flat here at Redcar with the 53.6pts level stakes profits equating to an ROI of a very useful 28.2% and in the context of today's encounter, those runners are...

  • 27/134 (20.2% SR) for 48.1pts (+35.9% ROI) in handicaps
  • 31/132 (23.5% SR) for 83.6pts (+63.3% ROI) at odds of 9/4 to 12/1
  • 21/84 (25% SR) for 55pts (+65.5% ROI) ridden by Danny Tudhope
  • 13/61 (21.3% SR) for 31.7pts (+51.9% ROI) 4 to 15 days after their last run
  • 10/41 (24.4% SR) for 40pts (+97.5% ROI) as 4 yr olds
  • and 5 from 26 (19.2% SR) for 10.8pts (+41.5% ROI) at Class 4.

From the above, Danny Tudhope is 13 from 46 (28.3% SR) for 39.7pts (+86.4% ROI) in handicaps at odds of 9/4 to 12/1.

Dandyleekie's win last time out a fortnight ago was his first run for six months and since the start of 2014, the O'Meara Class 4 handicappers with just one run in the previous 90 days are 14 from 52 (26.9% SR) for 60.1pts (+115.5% ROI) with the following of interest today...

  • males are 12/42 (28.6% SR) for 64pts (+152.4% ROI)
  • those with a top 5 finish LTO are 11/32 (34.4% SR) for 29.6pts (+92.6% ROI)
  • those ridden by Danny Tudhope are 9/30 (30% SR) for 27.1pts (+90.2% ROI)
  • those racing over 5 to 7 furlongs are 7/25 (28% SR) for 36.6pts (+146.4% ROI)
  • and 4 yr olds are 7/19 (36.8% SR) for 49.9pts at an ROI of 262.7%

That win last time out also came after a switch of yard following a sequence of results that saw him fail to finish in the first three home in five consecutive outings. Yet, since 2009 in the months of April to October, handicappers racing over trips shorter than 1m5f at classes 3 to 5, 11 to 25 days after a win that was preceded by three or more unplaced efforts are 58/388 (15% SR) for 139.1pts (+35.8% ROI), provided they aren't stepped up in trip by more than a furlong, aren't rated any more than 4lbs higher than LTO and aren't stepping up by more than one class.

(sounds complicated, but it really isn't!)

And the call is...a 1pt win bet on Dandyleekie at 11/4 BOG with any one of around a dozen firms all quoting the same price at 6.40pm. To see what your bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.10 Redcar

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...