Tag Archive for: Doncaster

Tix Picks, Friday 13/09/24

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Friday's placepots can be played via Tix at Chester, Doncaster, Sandown and Salisbury...

But, what is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

There’s a bumper pot available at Doncaster, so let’s head there where the going is expected to be good/good to soft and the first of our six races is…

Leg 1 : 1.50 Doncaster, an 8-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ handicap over 1m6½f
Shadow Dance has two wins and two runner-up finishes from his last five outings, Subsequent has won three of his last four and East India Dock is three from six with all three of them winning last time out and I suspect this will be a three horse race here.

The 3yo Subsequent steps up in class here, but his yard have been amongst the winners of late…

…as have the team behind East India Dock, who’ll also benefit from a 10lbs weight allowance as a 3yr old…

Of the three, East India Dock has a better looking Instant Expert profile than the other two, but that’s down to a lack of relevant races….

And when we look at the pace/draw heat map, it’s Shadow Dance that catches the eye in what might end up being a falsely run race.

From this race, I’ll be taking runners 1 & 8, Shadow Dance and East India Dock.

Leg 2 : 2.25 Doncaster, a 7-runner, 2yo Listed race over 7f
Mubaker, Jonquil and God of War all won last time out, but now step up 1, 3 and 4 classes respectively. Symbol of Honour was a decent 6th of 22 in the Coventry at Royal Ascot, beaten by less than a length and a similar run here puts him right in the mix on his first run after being gelded. He did win his penultimate outing, though.The Waco Kid is also interesting despite being unplaced in his two Class 1 runs since winning at Newbury in July. He posted solid efforts at both Goodwood and York, but it was Oisin Murphy who rode him to victory at Newbury and he’s back in the saddle today, hoping to land yet another winner for Hugo Palmer…

Pace/Draw ticks boxes for LTO winner Mubaker and Symbol of Honour...

...and in a race where there's not a great deal to go off and little to choose between several of the runners, I'll take one fancied runner Symbol of Honour and one at a more value-type price in The Waco Kid, so numbers 6 and 7 on your cards.

Leg 3 : 3.00 Doncaster, an 11-runner, 2yo Group 2 contest over 5f
This looks like a really good/competitive renewal of the Flying Childers with plenty coming here in good form, including LTO winners Tropical Storm, Zayer and Coto de Caza who comes here on a hat-trick. That said, none of this field have raced more than five times before today and all have won at least once, as between them they have made the frame 27 times (inc 15 wins) from just 40 starts with Aesterius placing in three of four and Magnum Force in all three runs.

From a trainer form perspective, Tropical Storm’s yard have 31 wins and 31 further places from 155 runners here at Doncaster since the start of 2018, including 10 wins and 8 places from 46 at Class 1 and their recent overall form is good, too.

Aesterius is the one who has produced the best results so far under today's expected conditions...

...so I'm going to take (1) Aesterius on place form and Instant Expert and (8) Tropical Storm on horse/trainer form, whilst it would be rude of me to ignore (4) Big Mojo after the way he landed the Group 3 Molecomb Stakes at Goodwood recently.

Leg 4 : 3.35 Doncaster, a 6-runner, 3yo+ Group 2 contest over 2m2f

Sweet William is the obvious placer here, having never failed to finish in the first three home in all 13 career starts and when you factor in the fact that his jockey Robert Havlin is not only in decent recent form, but also has a great record for the Gosdens over the last few years (61.7% place strike rate), then Sweet William has to be a solid picks here, but I’m sure the market will reflect that too.

The backup plan for many punters will be stablemate Gregory, but I’ve still got a bit of a soft spot for the oldest horse in the race, Trueshan who won this race last year. He was, admittedly, four lengths behind the afore-mentioned Gosdens pair last time out, but he probably wasn’t suited by ground quicker than he’ll face today and Instant Expert paints him in a really good light…

So, that's runners 4 (Sweet William) and 5 (Trueshan) for leg 4

Leg 5 : 4.10 Doncaster, a 7-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ fillies handicap over 1m4f

Bint Al Daar has two wins and two runner-up finishes from her last four outings and is the only runner in the race not stepping up in class and in a race with no weight allowances, she’d actually be my pick to go on and win the race, but the in-form Cabrera gets 8lbs here as a 3yo and that will make her a hot property in the market in what is is possibly going to be a two-horse race.

A quick look at Instant Expert not only affirms Cabrera’s chances, but also raises questions of most of her rivals…

...whilst the pace/draw heat map seems to favour low drawn runners irrespective of running style

...and with both of these horses drawn inside the first three stalls, the picks have to be (3) Bint Al Daar & (4) Cabrera

Leg 6 : 4.45 Doncaster, a 9-runner, Class 2, 2yo maiden fillies race over 7f

And we close with probably the toughest race to call, so if we're still in the game at this point, we might need some luck.

Only three of the field have even raced before with Berning Hot and Kebili both finishing seventh on their debuts, whilst Whirl has finished fourth and the fifth, suggesting that it might not take much to beat any of this trio.

Of the newcomers, the one that catches my eye first is Kingsclere, a full sister to 2020’s 2000 Guineas winner Kameko, whilst fellow debutante Gulya is a Night of Thunder filly whose half-sister Maroof was a winner at trips up to a mile.

I suspect that these two will be amongst the main players, but at longer odds, I think the likes of Coma Cluster (Sir Michael Stoute has a 30.8% strike rate with 2yo debutants over the last year) and Like A Vision (the O’Meara/Tudhope axis is strong right now) could well get involved.

As with any of these types of races, the market is often a good indicator of things might pan out, so I’ll take the un-named favourite for the place pot along with runners (3) Coma Cluster, (4) Gulya, (6) Kingsclere & (7) Like A Vision.

So that gives me...

Leg 1: horses 1 & 8

Leg 2: horses 6 & 7

Leg 3: horses 1, 4 & 8

Leg 4: horses 4 & 5

Leg 5: horses 3 & 4

Leg 6: horses 3, 4, 6 & 7 plus the fav!

...and here's how I'd play them...

 

Wish me luck, I think I might need it!
Chris

 

Monday Musings: Waiting…

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W H Smith said the 2024 version of Horses In Training would be available for dispatching from March 20th, writes Tony Stafford. Normally, I would buy my copy a few days earlier than that, at Cheltenham, but this time I wasn’t there, and rather inconveniently forgot to ask the Editor, who was, to collect one for me.

Age doesn’t help. A few years ago, I bought a copy from the Racing Post shop there and duly left it in the box that was obligingly made available – necessary as I’d not bothered to book a press badge for the week.

WHS said – or rather its web site did, it seems they don’t have any actual people working for them nowadays – that it would take two or three days to arrive. It hasn’t. I’m a bit worried because on the same ordering page, they still have Horses In Training 2023 available at the same price. Few authors can share editor Graham Dench’s smugness that an out-of-date issue is as valuable as the new one.

You might ask why I should be worried that a company with the worldwide reputation of W H Smith to protect could be thought to be that slipshod. Last year, when the wonderful Sir Rupert Mackeson arranged through his sources to get me HIT 2023, it duly arrived from the year before so I’m holding (or not) my breath. They did send the correct one out eventually.

Why am I so het up about it? Well, it’s the start of the flat and I always like to look at which yards have accumulated more horses than before and note the trainers who prefer not to reveal their equine strengths.

In general, the big get bigger, the small struggle and it needs something a little different for a trainer to make an early impact. As George Boughey has shown over the past few years, being youthful as well as able comes into it, and he was up to 165 officially last year. I wonder how many in 2024 – no don’t tell me – I’ll wait until tomorrow or whenever the priceless volume arrives.

When I was introduced by our mutual friend Michelle Fernandes to Dylan Cunha at the April sale in Newmarket last year, I confess I hadn’t heard of him, or if I had, it would have skimmed over my consciousness like so many things do nowadays. But looking at HIT after our chat, I saw he had 17 horses in his yard in Windsor Road, Newmarket.

Dylan is from South Africa and left the land of his birth a couple of years ago to see if he could make it over here. A winning Group 1 trainer back home, he had chanced him arm but with the help of the highly-talented Silver Sword in the yard – an impressive winner of the last race at York’s Ebor meeting last year – he made quite a stir.

Needing a larger premises as the numbers crept up, he did a deal to take over the famed Phantom House Stables of William Jarvis when the last trainer of that revered surname decided to call time – understandably keeping the family home on the premises.

A great friend and contemporary from Harrow school of William Haggas, it must have become in part a frustration to see his pal’s career travelling in the opposite direction, perhaps one day even to the extent that Haggas might make it to champion trainer, but it will need a slowing-down from the Gosdens and Aidan O’Brien, maybe even Roger Varian, to permit that.

The move sorted, Dylan was always active at the sales and by this point he has 50 horses under his care – I’m not sure whether HIT will have caught up with it. Last week I read an article in the admirable South African Monday to Friday racing publication Turf Talk that published an interview with the family man who is doing his home country proud.

It revealed that he was running a two-year-old in the Brocklesby on the opening day of the flat. Traditionally the first juvenile race of the season from its time until 1964 at Lincoln racecourse, it often brings out a nice debutant.

Zminiature, named for his size but clearly not his ability, dealt with his 14 opponents in authoritative style, expertly guided home by Rhys Clutterbuck, nicely settled into his new role as Dylan’s stable jockey. They also had a winner together with 9/1 shot Gogo Yubari the previous afternoon at Lingfield.

Zminiature was the first of his 25 juveniles to be seen out and the win gives him the enviable position of putting down a marker for the rest of them when getting close to running. I do fear for the South African bookmakers who must have been subjected to a bit of a hammering from this well-touted, over there at least, first-day winner.

Another new partnership on the opening day provided an even more significant, and unexpected, result for the talented David Egan, new first rider for Amo Racing. David had spent some of the weeks leading up to Saturday with a few choice rides and wins in the US for Amo’s boss, football agent Kia Joorabchian, and this first UK winner together since the announcement of their new partnership couldn’t have been better timed for the rider.

The five-year-old Mr Professor, a 33/1 shot, was one of seven Amo horses listed in Alice Haynes’ 2023 team, but they, like so many others, have moved on. Likewise, Alice, who has added the spacious Machell Place to her existing yard around the corner at Cadland stables at the foot of Warren Hill in Newmarket as her numbers increase.

Dominic Ffrench Davis has always been a popular man with his fellow trainers and one who has proved he can succeed over jumps and on the flat. This year will be his 31st with a licence and promises to be his best yet.

When the 2023 book came out, it listed just one Amo horse. In the event, 32 individual horses for the mercurial owner won 16 races, double Dominic’s previous best from 14 years ago. His prizemoney haul of £480k was almost five times his existing record.

Victory in the Lincoln already has Dominic above £80k for the year, a figure he has only three times previously exceeded, with a maximum of just over £100k in 2022. Egan meanwhile cannot wait to partner King Of Steel, still in training as a four-year-old with Roger Varian, for whom he has ridden so many winners.

Having finished second to Auguste Rodin in the Derby, King Of Steel won at Royal Ascot and again on Champions Day there, gaining a first Group 1. Where Kevin Stott did not gel with the owner for whatever reason, the ultra-sharp Egan, whose father John is still riding well into his 50’s when he has time between his bloodstock dealing, will be hoping his relationship with Kia lasts rather longer.

The new season also provided a big welcome back for Silvestre de Sousa, after his ban in the ultra-sensitive world of Hong Kong racing. The triple UK champion returned with a winner on his first ride at Newcastle less than a fortnight ago, and he is up to four after Varian’s Charyn, three times toiling last year in the wake of Paddington, took his chance to win the first turf flat race of the year – a Listed affair – under de Sousa.

Races like the Lockinge were immediately mentioned on his likely agenda and de Sousa, who has ridden off 8st3lb over the past year, is one of those rare creatures that can do light when a top trainer needs one. He will be hard to resist in such circumstances and might even make a play at challenging William Buick and Oisin Murphy for the title.

- TS

Roving Reports: An Unwelcome Hat Trick

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It's been a while since you had a blog from me as, to be honest, there has not been a lot to report back on since Ascot, writes David Massey.

For every week you find yourself working a Goodwood or a Newmarket or the Royal Meeting, there are two or three Southwells, Stratfords and Leicesters; and, whilst they all have their charms, there's usually little or no action in the ring.

Saying that, for those that complain the books are all the same, one Midlands bookmaker, in an effort to do something different, has started betting extra places on selected races. Come racing!

I've actually had time to go and enjoy myself at the races and went to Newmarket's Ladies Day with my friend Paula, who likes a day racing, and has her own retired ex-racer for a hack. Remarkably, despite living in Cambridge, she'd never been to Newmarket and was absolutely amazed by their woody pre-parade ring, which is surely one of racing's hidden jewels. I could sit in there all afternoon, just making notes and watching the horses. I think you learn a lot in there. Can I recommend you get Dubai Treasure, second to Sacred Angel in the fillies maiden, in your trackers? She had no clue pre-race and was very green going to post, too. Given how much energy she expended, I expected her to drop right away, but she stuck willingly to the task and will know a lot more next time. I suspect she's very good.

Anyway, in terms of actual work, it's been thin on the ground. I've done a couple of Southwells and worked York's John Smith's weekend, which can easily be summed up in a short sentence: wet, and disappointing business. The Friday was awful, with rain all afternoon and it leaked under the waterproofs. The money required drying out (you've never seen so many tenners on a bathroom floor) before it could be cashed up, and my socks needed wringing out.

Saturday saw a different kind of rain, one that wasn't as constant as Friday but was more ferocious when it hit, with two warnings given out by the track for lightning.

One of those came just as we were getting going betting on the first race, and it rather killed it; probably just as well, as Blue For You was well backed. Results weren't bad, with Pride Of America almost unbacked for the John Smith's Cup, surprisingly given his liking for soft ground, but there you go. The biggest bet I took all day was a £300 one on Hamish for the Silver Cup at 1-2, and the punter was made to sweat considerably more than I think he thought he might, although he got his £150 profit in the end. That, by the way, shows you the level of business; York, rails, on John Smith's day, and the biggest bet I can take is £300.

I'm not known by friends as The Rainmaster for nothing; it seems to follow me around like a bad smell and, sure enough, Doncaster on Saturday night saw us get another drenching. It wasn't as bad as expected and the worst of it came just as we were packing up, but it put the tin hat on a night of what-can-go-wrong-nexts.

We have a Saturday night crowd who are there to see Abba tribute act Arrival after racing, so we know what we are dealing with. This is confirmed by the number of "this is my first bet ever" ladies that come up before the first. It never ceases to amaze me that people in their forties and fifties have got this far in life and never had a bet. I think I'd just about reached my eleventh birthday before my first wager.

Anyway, all the kit is working fine, we're off and running, business is steady and results are okay. What could go wrong?

Race 3 sees the first issue. Chiefman is withdrawn at the start after having stalls problems, which sees a 10p Rule 4. As ever, the muffled announcement goes unnoticed by much of the crowd and there are a few punters a bit miffed that they aren't getting back what is telling them on the docket. "It says here I should get £40," says one irate bloke. I also inform him his docket says "a Rule 4 may apply" but he's not interested in that bit. I am informed I am a "robbing bastard" for which I thank him, and start serving other, less irate, punters.

I've banged on enough about how the courses need to use the big screens more and I won't go on again - suffice to say someone who had a decent bet on Chiefman is yet to pick his money up at the time of writing. If I'd seen him I'd have given him a shout, but never did.

Worse is to follow, as favourite Sir Thomas Gresham is withdrawn at the start of the next. A whopping 20p deduction. If matey boy thought he'd been robbed for the previous race, he's not gonna like this much. And then... a dead heat. My head is in my hands.

Most people are fairly understanding about the situation and are happy to accept that they are getting back less than half of what it says on the docket, but there's always a few. One is convinced I'm totally wrong and does the maths I've given him to do, at which point I do at least get an apology. The rain starts to fall and I'm cold. Can't be any more withdrawals, surely?

There is. The unwelcome hat-trick is brought up by Handel in race 5, who doesn't go with the field. Another 10p deduction. I'm fairly sure people think we're doing this on purpose. It also takes the field down from 12 to 11, so a quarter the odds down to a fifth. It's just one thing after another!

We start packing up after the last and it starts to belt down, just to compound the misery. After expenses, we have won... six quid on the night. Well worth turning up for. As I push the gear towards the exit, a bloke comes running up to me with a docket. "Sorry I'm late, pal", he says. I look at his ticket. He's got two quid back from a non-runner. I don't even bother getting the money back out, merely reach in my pocket for two quid of my own. As the band strike up with Waterloo, I shake my head, and get the hell out of there...

- DM

Spirit Has The Hot Form At Doncaster

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It’s great to see some bigger fields at Doncaster this week after declining field sizes at this meeting in recent years. For those who like a ‘difficult’ handicap to solve there won’t be many tougher races than Wednesday’s 3.45pm, which will be live on ITV3.

The main angle I like to use when looking at a race (other than evaluating the ‘shape’ of a race which is a must for everyone) is the strength of the form of each runner. The Hot Form Report is a great way of finding runners with strong form and we can also use the Future Form button on each race result page to find out how races have worked out since they were run.

The Runners

Sky Defender

Sky Defender has an extremely consistent profile having finished outside the first 4 in just one of seven starts since the resumption of racing. That’s despite racing in some of the most competitive handicaps this season. The bad news is he’s been beaten off this mark in 4 consecutive handicaps and in his last 6 starts he’s only finished ahead of one subsequent winner from the top 10 finishers in his races which is quite a damning stat. His overall profile suggests he’s more than capable of placing but there isn’t much to suggest he’s well enough handicapped to win again.

Pivoine

Pivoine hasn’t shown much form this season, beating just four runners from a possible twenty-nine. He has an obvious chance based on much of last season’s form, including a win in the John Smith’s Handicap off a 4lb higher mark but his form this season is a big concern and he hasn’t won away from York in his last eighteen runs. Faster ground would probably suit better too.

Dubai Horizon

He’s largely been campaigned over further this year and has shown very little in two runs in the UK over 14f after being in decent form in Meydan. He won in similar conditions over this distance at Sandown 2 years ago off this mark and made an okay reappearance in the Cambridgeshire after a 373 day break a year ago. Last year’s Cambridgeshire was an extremely hot renewal, of the first seventeen runners home, ten have won since and two haven’t raced since. He definitely has a chance based on much of his form but current well being has to be taken on trust.

Fox Power

He has some decent form in the book and largely ran well in defeat on the all weather over the winter. He often got the run of the race in those contests though and his turf form is yet to quite match his efforts on artificial surfaces. He made a slightly underwhelming return in the Hunt Cup and this step up in trip doesn’t look an obvious move so it’s fair to say he’s one of the less likely winners.

Caradoc

He’s clearly talented but he’s been expensive to follow this season. He’s been favourite or close to favouritism on his last eight runs and has been defeated in the last four of those. The closest he has got to winning this season was in the Investec Handicap at Epsom and although he didn’t get the run of the race he was still beaten over 4 lengths. Only one of the top 10 finishers in that race has come out and won and he seemed to benefit massively from a wind op. He’s clearly well thought of but that is leading him to being massively overbet and whilst he might well win, he’s once again a shorter price than the formbook entitles him to be.

Derevo

This runner has a similar profile to Caradoc. He had a good strike rate last season and hasn’t yet won this season whilst probably being better than the bare results in his races. He made a perfectly satisfactory seasonal debut in a race where every other runner in the first 6 has at least placed since. He followed that up with another good effort at Goodwood when slightly better than the bare result but no subsequent winners finished in the top 10 in that contest. He was well held last time out when the ground probably went against him at York. Just like Caradoc his profile is determining his price rather than his form and he’s another that might be an underpriced winner of this race but is probably best left alone.

Rise Hall

Still relatively lightly raced and he was progressive last season, running well in several decent handicaps. He’s been well below par on his last three runs, including both runs this season. That’s left him well handicapped on last season’s form but it’s a leap to back him to return to form.

Aasheq

Underwhelming form in two runs this season after 394 days on the sidelines. He’d be of extreme interest on much of his 2019 form, particularly his Epsom effort behind Mountain Angel.

Aasheq Form

Aasheq Form

The 1st and 4th both won their next starts and the 2nd won within two runs but Aasheq hasn’t quite been able to re produce that form since. It’s perhaps worth noting that his best form has been when ridden handy and he’s largely been held up since that run. Keep this horse in mind for an in running back if he gets a prominent position.

Hypothetical

The big unknown in this race and one of three 3yos. He won easily at Chelmsford on debut last year as a 2yo but has been regressive since. He was 4th in a Group 3 on his seasonal debut which doesn’t sound a bad run but he was sent off 15/8f for that race. The smart Pyledriver was 2nd that day but the 3rd has been beaten in handicaps off 98 twice since suggesting that Hypothetical’s mark of 97 is no gift. He was way below form on his turf debut on soft at Royal Ascot and even if translating his all weather form to turf on slightly faster ground here he’ll still have to improve. That’s possible from a thrice raced John Gosden runner but the combination of Gosden/Dettori ensures he’s shorter than he should be.

Data Protection

Been in good form since his wind op after being beaten by Sky Defender. He’s 8lbs higher now though and all six subsequent runners in the two races he has won have been unplaced since. It’s worth noting that he has faced Sky Defender since the gelding operation and in receipt of 19lbs he beat that runner by a neck. Data Protection is now 4lbs worse off so has his work cut out to beat Sky Defender again.

Starcat

A creditable 7th in the 2000 Guineas behind Kameko, beaten 12 lengths in June. Well beaten on handicap debut (soft) in the hot Britannia Handicap and put in a much more measurable run at Glorious Goodwood when a staying on 5th over this sort of trip behind Junkanoo. He was only beaten 2.5 lengths and to the naked eye he looks a real contender here. However looking at the Future Form of that Goodwood race shows that the race has worked out terribly.

Starcat Form

He’s entitled to improve with the extra experience and in this bigger field but he certainly needs to.

Groveman

Habitual front runner, campaigned over further for the past two years. He’s at his best when able to dominate small fields (three wins have come in fields of 5, 6 and 8) and this step back in distance doesn’t look an obvious move off a near career high mark.

Mayfair Sprit

Boasts an impressive 50% strike rate on turf compared to just 14% on the all weather. He was a big drifter last time out (went from 5/2 to 13/2) but ran just okay in third on very fast ground on his first try at 12f against two rivals who got the run of the race. He’s perhaps better judged on his previous effort when victorious at Windsor over 11.5f. That race was particularly hot form with the 3rd, 4th and 6th all winning since.

Mayfair Spirit Form

He’s twice a winner on good to soft ground but that Windsor run came on good to firm so he’s versatile with regards to underfoot conditions and given that he’s generally held up and proven over slightly further he’d be ideally served by a good gallop here.

Strait Of Hormuz

The final 3yo in the field and one who has been in good, consistent form this season. He won on his reappearance over a mile at Haydock in what was certainly a hot race with each of the four horses that followed him home all winning since.

Straight Of Hormuz Form

He shaped as though he’d get further that day which is no surprise given he is by Derby winner Sir Percy. He again shaped as though wanting further than a mile on his next start at Ascot when not seen to best effect off a slow gallop and he duly showed improved form next time out at Chester over this trip. He shaped well in 2nd, fairly well placed off another slow gallop but it’s a concern that the nearest seven runners to him that have run since from that race have all failed to place. He’s an interesting runner and gets the handy weight for age allowance from his elders but he arguably achieved less last time out than it initially seemed. However his previous strong run at Haydock shouldn’t be forgotten, for all he is now on a 7lb higher mark.

Pace and Draw

Doncaster is generally considered one of the fairer tracks and that is certainly backed up by the draw data over this trip on good ground:

Doncaster 10f Draw Stats

There is almost nothing in the win, place and PRB data so no concerns over the draw for any runner here.

So how about the pace of the race?

Doncaster Pace Map

First of all, Doncaster as a course is very fair and one that tends to suit hold up horses over this trip on this ground. The place data is more useful than the win data here and runners from mid division have the best place strike rate, but there is very little between prominent, mid division and held up. The main takeaway is you don’t really want to be forcing the pace.

On fair tracks the pace of the individual race is likely to have the biggest say on the outcome and whilst the pace map is pointing towards lone pace from Groveman, it would be no surprise to see Sky Defender or Fox Power dispute that lead. Either way it certainly seems as though those nearer the rear won’t be disadvantaged.

Verdict

No real course bias to rule many out, although you probably won’t want to be on the pace.

In terms of form there are many in with chances in this race, at least half the field, but many of those are too short on what they have achieved so far and/or have been running in races that have worked out poorly. This does look a hot race so any runner that has recently beaten other well handicapped horses should be favoured.

There is every chance Strait Of Hormuz improves for this trip at a more conventional track than Chester and it’s not his fault those behind him let the form down last time, although it’s a worry that horses that got very close to him didn’t run well on their next starts. He gets weight from his elders here and looks by far the best of the 3yos.

There has to be a feeling that Mayfair Spirit has been very much underestimated here though. If he came here off the back of his Windsor win he’d be half the current odds of 12/1 and he still very much ran as if in form last time out.

And if in running backing is your game check out what position Aasheq takes up early on. If he's racing prominently it might be a sign that a big run is on the cards at a price.