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Stat of the Day, 27th August 2019

Bank Holiday Monday's pick was...

5.00 Cartmel : Justatenner @ 9/2 BOG 2nd at 7/2 (Held up in rear, headway after 2 out, driven to chase leaders when not fluent last, soon ridden, stayed on into 2nd flat, no impression with winner)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

4.20 Epsom :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Swift Approval @ 9/2 non-BOG until morning

...in an 11-runner, Class 4, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 7f on Good/Good to Firm ground worth £7,116 to the winner...

Why?...

This 7 yr ld gelding has won two of his last three starts, including an LTO win in a similar Class 4, 7f handicap at Sandown 19 days ago. That took his record over 7f to 7 wins and 6 places from 26 attempts, including wins on Soft (x2), Good to Soft (x1), Good (x2) and Good to Firm (x2), so I don't expect the ground or trip to be an issue today and as he's 3/11 at Classes 2/3, he shouldn't be outclassed here either.

He's got Andrea Atzeni in the saddle and Andrea has a good record on this quirky track, whilst his trainer Stuart Williams is 6 from 32 (18.75% SR) for 49.6pts (+154.9% ROI) over the past fortnight, so he's got his string in good nick.

More long-term, ie since 2010 however, his runners sent off at odds of 11/10 to 9/1 at the same class and distance as an LTO win in the previous 25 days are 15 from 53 (28.3% SR) for 19.1pts (+36% ROI), with the following angles at play today...

  • 14/43 (32.6%) for 26.14pts (+60.8%) over 5 to 7 furlongs
  • 13/43 (30.2%) for 20.64pts (+48%) from male runners
  • 11/38 (28.9%) for 20.03pts (+52.7%) at 11-25 dslr
  • 8/23 (34.8%) for 15.6pts (+67.8%) at Class 4/5
  • 7/28 (25%) for 4.83pts (+17.25%) since 2016
  • and 7/24 (29.2%) for 22.37pts (+93.2%) from 5-8 yr olds...

...from which, males racing over 5-7f at 11-25 dslr are 9/25 (36% SR) for 24.6pts (+98.4% ROI) ie 128.8% of the original profit from just 47.1% of the runners!

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Swift Approval @ 9/2 non-BOG until morning as was available from Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.40pm on Monday (Only Bet365 had opened on a BOG basis and they were a point shorter). To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.20 Epsom

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 1st June 2019

Friday's pick was...

5.30 Wolverhampton : Tha'ir @ 9/4 BOG 2nd at 3/1 (With leader, keen, led over 5f out, hung right and headed over 1f out, kept on under pressure)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

4.30 Epsom :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Telecaster @ 5/1 BOG

...in the 13-runner, Group 1, Investec Derby for 3yo over 1m4f  on Good ground worth a mere £921,537 to the winner...

Why?...

This lightly raced (just three runs so far) colt has excellent breeding as you'd expect, he's the son of a Derby winner out of an Oaks runner-up and has finished 211 in his runs so far, the latest being a win in the Gr 2 Dante at York over 10.5 furlongs 16 days ago under today's jockey Oisin Murphy who is now 2 from 2 on the horse.

Overall, Oisin has 18 wins from 89 (20.2% SR) for 44pts (+49.4% ROI) for trainer Hughie Morrison, for which...

  • he is 14/48 (29.2%) for 55.9pts (+116.4%) on 3 yr olds
  • 9/23 (27.3%) for 42.1pts (+127.7%) during 2018/19
  • and 7/21 (33.3%) for 50pts (+238.3%)

Hughie himself has a 19.7% strike rate since 2010 on this uniquely quirky track, acquired via 12 winners from 61 yielding 45.2pts profit at an excellent ROI of 74.1% backed blindly and these include 6 from 22 (27.3%) for 27.1pts (+123.2%) since the start of the 2017 campaign.

And during 2017-19, Hughie's LTO winners sent off at odds of 2/1 to 9/1 (we should be safe here) after at least 2 weeks rest are 14 from 54 (25.9% SR) for 45.2pts (+83.8% ROI), from which the following are relevant today...

  • 12/38 (31.6%) for 47pts (+123.6%) on the Flat
  • 10/30 (33.3%) for 34.2pts (+114.1%) from male runners
  • 9/23 (39.1%) for 42pts (+182.4%) during March to July
  • 9/23 (39.1%) for 31pts (134.8%) from 3 yr olds
  • 4/8 (50%) for 31.5pts (+393.7%) at Class 1
  • and 3/6 (50%) for 11.5pts (+191.8%) over 1m4f

...and the above includes 5 winners from 6 (83.3% SR) for 25.46pts (+424.3% ROI) from 3 yr old males on the Flat in May/June...

And finally for today, I want to look at the general make-up of a Derby winner, as our pick is favoured by the the facts that the last 22 Derby winners included...

  • 22 with no previous run at the trip
  • 22 with no previous run at Epsom
  • 20 were last seen 2-5 weeks earlier
  • 18 were sent off at 7/1 and shorter
  • 17 had ran 3-5 times that season
  • 17 were drawn in stall 10 or a single digit
  • 15 were LTO winners
  • 12 had a maximum previous run of 1m2f/1m2.5f
  • 11 had a maximum previous winning trip of 1m2f/1m2.5f

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Telecaster @ 5/1 BOG which was offered by Betfair, BetVictor, Paddy Power & Unibet at 6.05pm on Friday with plenty of 9/2 BOG elsewhere. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.30 Epsom

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Catching Up with David Probert: 22nd May 2019

The season is really ramping up now and I've been keeping very busy. I'm on 49 winners for 2019 just now and am obviously keen to tick off the 50 as soon as possible. It didn't happen at Wolves on Tuesday but I've some decent chances in the coming days so hopefully we'll be looking towards 100 before the weekend!

Perhaps the nicest one I've ridden since I last spoke to you is Raise You, a three-year-old Lope De Vega colt out of a Galileo mare. He won by six lengths in a Newbury maiden on his first run this season - and that form has worked out well with the 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th all winning next time.

I got to sit on him on Saturday in a Listed race over ten furlongs at Newmarket. It's a very long straight mile and a quarter there, and Raise You likes to get on with things in front. He was a little keen early on which, because we weren't sure about the trip, probably wasn't ideal. But he saw it out really nicely and was well on top at the line. He's a free going sort so I tried to find a little space and get him to relax, which he did do. He's progressing really fast and might have a tilt at the French Derby next where he'll hopefully get his favoured soft ground. Who knows, perhaps he'll be able to dictate a steady gallop and lead all the way.

We also had a nice two-year-old winner the other day at Salisbury. Symbolize is by Starspangledbanner and he surprised us there with how forward he was. He'll probably go straight to Royal Ascot now, with the Coventry more likely than the Norfolk at this stage. There were solid whispers before the race for the second and third so he could be quite special.

Eagle-eyed readers may have noticed I've been riding a few for Henry Candy recently. Our acquaintance actually goes back to 2014 when I rode for Henry a fair bit. And, since the unfortunate retirement of Fran Berry, Mr Candy has been using me once more. We've already teamed up for a couple of winners and I hope there are plenty more where they came from. He's a great man to ride for, never rushes his horses and knows exactly what he's got, so I'm lucky to be involved there again.

Riding The Tracks: Epsom

With the Oaks and Derby, as well as the Dash and all the rest of the Derby meeting races coming up in a couple of weeks, here are a few thoughts on riding the unique track at Epsom.

Your first 30 days for just £1

 

The five furlong course is straight and downhill for the first three-and-a-half furlongs, but it's actually deceptively testing in the finish as the turf rises back up again in the last furlong. A high draw is an advantage in big fields as it enables you to get a position close to the stands rail where both the camber and the undulations are slightly less severe. As well as a fast horse you need a lucky one, and it's certainly an exciting trip to ride with things changing very quickly in the dying strides.

Six furlong races start on the crown of the home turn and if you're drawn inside you can sometimes get boxed in with nowhere to go. Ideally I'd like a middle draw as that gives the most options for how to ride the race depending on how things are panning out in front of me. If I've got a horse with gate speed, I'll use that to get him into a position and a nice rhythm, trying to keep him balanced on the downhill run into the straight. Plenty lug down the camber in the last half mile which again can make life difficult if you're holed up on the far rail.

Seven is probably the easiest trip to ride at Epsom. It's pretty straightforward, you can get yourself a position and - as with most ranges here - they get racing early enough. At seven, there's room to find a stride, get your horse on the right lead and it's probably a pretty fair test. In six and seven furlong races if you can get the fractions right on the front it does pay.

The longer races all start in the back straight and there's quite a climb there which can sap your energy if you get racing early on. When you get to the top of the hill, at about the six pole, you need to make sure you fill your horse up, get him balanced and on the right lead, so that when you're running back down the hill you're ready to quicken off the turn and into the straight, making sure that your horse doesn't hang down the camber.

On softer ground you'll generally see the jockeys make a beeline for the stands' rail. It's a little higher up there, and therefore tends to be drier than other parts of the track as the rain drains down the camber. When it's wet it can be a plus if you're drawn high because when the field passes the three and starts running downhill everyone is jostling for the favoured strip; those in the high stalls with good track position can get first dibs on that rail and a clear run through.

Overall it's a course that takes a bit of knowing, and you sometimes need to be lucky in terms of getting the run of things.

I hope there is something of use in these thoughts when you're next looking at an Epsom race!

Thanks for reading,

David Probert

 

Stat of the Day, 2nd August 2018

Wednesday's Pick was...

3.00 Goodwood : Soldier's Call @ 11/4 BOG 3rd at 6/4 (Went left and bumped rival start, in touch in mid-division, headway over 2 out, edged left over 1f out, chased winner inside final furlong, no impression, lost 2nd close home)

Thursday's pick goes in the...

7.30 Epsom :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Toy Theatre 4/1 BOG non-runner at 8:05am Reason: Going

In an 8-runner, Class 4, Fillies Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 7f on Good ground worth £7116 to the winner...

Why?

This 4 yr old filly was only beaten by a nose and a short head as she finished third last time out in this grade, but has previously won with today's jockey at a higher level than today and the winner from LTO has already gone on to win again.

Trainer Mick Appleby is 7 from 35 (20% SR) over he last two weeks and 4/15 (26.7%) on the past week's racing, whilst jockey Silvestre de Sousa has ridden 9 winners from 31 (29%) in the last seven days and his record on this quirky track stands at 35 from 129 (27.1% SR) for 67.8pts (+52.5% ROI), so he's well worth following here, especially under today's conditions, as...

  • on horses who last ran in the previous 60 days : 33/116 (28.5%) for 66.8pts (+57.6%)
  • in handicaps : 24/83 (28.9%) for 55.4pts (+66.7%)
  • on good ground : 21/66 (31.8%) for 60.1pts (+91.1%)
  • on females : 13/31 (41.9%) for 37.9pts (+122.3%)
  • over this 7f C&D : 12/31 (38.7%) for 27.6pts (+88.9%)
  • in August : 11/24 (45.8%) for 13.8pts (+57.7%)

Now, Silvestre has never actually ridden any of Mick Appleby's horses here at Epsom, but elsewhere the partnership stands at 32/140 (22.9% SR) for 49.2pts (+35.2% ROI), including of relevance today...

  • at odds of 9/4 to 12/1 : 24/104 (23.1%) for 65.2pts (+62.6%)
  • on the Flat : 19/77 (24.7%) for 46.4pts (+60.3%)
  • with females : 9/34 (26.5%) for 14.9pts (+43.7%)
  • and in 2018 : 9/28 (32.1%) for 28.6pts (+102.1%)

...and females priced at 9/4 to 12/1 on the Flat are 4/16 (25%) for 12.1pts (+75.6%) including Toy Theatre's win at Newmarket last September in a Class 3 contest.

...but first...a 1pt win bet on Toy Theatre 4/1 BOGa price available from more than a half dozen firms at 5.35pm on Wednesday (***9/2 available from both BetVictor & SkyBet at 6.00pm***), but to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 7.30 Epsom

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 12th July 2018

Wednesday's Pick was...

5.55 Kempton : Divine Messenger @ 9/4 BOG 2nd at 5/2 (Towards rear, headway over 1f out, ridden inside final furlong, kept on well and held towards finish, beaten by a neck)

Thursday's pick goes in the...

8.10 Epsom :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Related @ 7/2 BOG

In an 8-runner, Class 4, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 6f on Good To Firm ground worth £7116 to the winner...

Why?

This 8 yr old gelding is actually 0 from 7 this year, but that doesn't deter me from backing a horse that wouldn't be winning out of turn after finishing 432 inside the past 40 days, all over today's 6f trip on Good to Firm ground, including (3rd place) one in a higher grade than this. This mini sequence culminated when only failing by a neck behind the in-form Hackney Road 12 days ago.

My interested was first raised when I saw Paul Midgely's name next to it, as Paul is one of the trainers in a little microsystem of mine that I've catchily titled "Late Summer Handicaps". Maybe not the best of titles, but it does what it says on the tin!

Basically...Paul Midgely + UK Flat Handicaps + Class 3-6 + July-September = 49/329 (14.9% SR) for 105.5pts (+32.1% ROI) since the start of the 2014 campaign. You could, of course back them all blindly (there were 115 bets last summer), but if you'd prefer to be more selective, here are some angles that are both profitable and relevant to this race...

  • Over 5-6 furlongs : 49/303 (16.2%) for 131.5pts (+43.4%)
  • Males : 43/249 (17.3%) for 160.9pts (+64.6%)
  • Competing for less than £8k : 42/277 (15.2%) for 102.7pts (+37.1%)
  • 4-10 yr olds : 41/223 (18.4%) for 157.7pts (+70.7%)
  • In 2017 : 20/115 (17.4%) for 85.4pts (+74.3%)
  • Over 6 furlongs : 20/103 (19.4%) for 86pts (+83.5%)
  • After just 11-15 days rest : 19/95 (20%) for 128.8pts (+135.6%)
  • On Good to Firm ground : 17/109 (15.6%) for 45.2pts (+41.5%)

Obviously all of the above apply, but start to put them together and it's interesting (to me, anyway!) to find that 4-10 yr old males racing over 6f for less than £8k prize money are 17 from 68 (25% SR) for 101.4pts (+149.1% ROI) and these are the ones to focus one from the micro after shedding some 261 bets to make just 4.1pts less profit.

If you used this as your starting point for a bet, you'd have had...

  • 11 winners from 34 (32.4%) for 84.6pts (+248.9%) from those rested for just 11-20 days
  • 9 winners from 34 (26.5%) for 71.1pts (+209.2%) at Class 4
  • 9 winners from 27 (33.3%) for 59.3pts (+219.6%) last year alone
  • and 5 winners from 17 (29.4%) for 63pts (+370.7%) on Good to Firm ground

We should always be wary of really small sample sizes, of course, but last year the Class 4 runners racing 11-20 days after their last run were 4 from 6 966.6% SR) for 22.1pts (+369% ROI) with a 1 from 1 record on Good To Firm!

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Related @ 7/2 BOGwhich was available from Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.25pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 8.10 Epsom

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 5th July 2018

Wednesday's Pick was...

4.40 Worcester : Three Colours Red @ 5/2 BOG WON at 9/4 (Chased leaders, closed after 4 out, 2nd before next, led flat, driven out for a relatively comfortable win by 2.5 lengths)

Thursday's pick goes in the...

7.00 Epsom :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Baron Bolt @ 11/4 BOG

In a 5-runner, Class 3 Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 6f on Good To Firm ground worth £8715 to the winner... 

Why?

It's fair to say that this 5 yr old gelding was disappointing last time when when well beaten at Newmarket. it's quite possible that a third run inside five weeks was a step too far after nearly 7 months off the track, so I'm prepared to overlook that run, especially as he's finished as a runner-up in his previous four contests, all at a better standard than today's race.

He's now had nearly four weeks to recuperate from his latest effort and I'd expect a return to past form, especially as in Flat handicaps he has...

  • 3 wins from 10 (30%) for 0.23pts (+2.3%) plus four placed finishes in cheekpieces
  • 4/7 (57.1%) for 9.03pts (+179%) at odds of 2/1 to 4/1
  • 4/7 (57.1) for 7.03pts (+100.4%) in fields of 8 runners or less, plus 2 places.
  • 3 from 3 (100%) for 7.23pts (+241%) in July/August
  • and 2/3 (66.6%) for 2.82pts (+94%) going left handed.

Today's jockey, David Probert, is red hot right now having won 7 of 19 rides (36.8% SR) over the past 5 days, whilst here at Epsom, he has an overall strike rate of 17% over 10 seasons (22/129).

And finally, to the trainer Paul Cole. Admittedly quiet so far this season, but the record books show that July-September are his better months for winning Flat handicaps, whilst since the start of the 2015 season, his 6/7 furlong runners are 26/162 (16.1% SR) for 168pts (+103.7% ROI), including of relevance today...

  • in handicaps : 17/92 (18.5%) for 60.6pts (+65.9%)
  • within 30 days of their last run : 14/90 (15.6%) for 81.6pts (+90.7%)
  • in July : 9/32 (28.1%) for 102.3pts (+319.8%)
  • ridden by David Probert : 3/8 (37.5%) for 24.4pts (+305%)
  • and here at Epsom @ 2/4 950%) for 19.3pts (+481.8%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Baron Bolt @ 11/4 BOGwhich was available from Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.50pm on Wednesday evening, whilst Bet365 ( (the first to break cover) were going at 7/2 BOG for those able to get on. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 7.00 Epsom

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 3rd August 2017

Wednesday's Result :

8.25 Sandown - Flight of Fantasy @ 5/1 BOG still to run Result/report to follow later.

Thursday's pick goes in the...

6.25 Epsom...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Ya Jammeel @ 5/2 BOG

Why?

Last pick before my holiday (you'll be well looked after by Steve!) is based around the following...

A 4 yr old gelding coming here on a hat-trick after wins 16 days apart firstly over 1m2f at Chepstow before a step up in trip to win over this course and distance a fortnight ago and whilst this certainly isn't the Derby, past knowledge of this quirky track is always useful and he's the only one in this race to have previously won here.

Trainer Mick Channon has had good results with his non-festival handicappers here on the Downs, with 14 winners from 88 (15.9% SR) since 2009, yielding 25.8pts (+29.3% ROI) of level stakes profit, including the following relevant data subsets...

  • at odds fof 8/1 and shorter : 12/56 (21.4%) for 20.7pts (+37%)
  • 11-30 days since last run : 11/47 (23.4%) for 55.95pts (+119%)
  • at Class 5 : 7/35 (20%) for 24.2pts (+69.2%)
  • 4 yr olds are 4/18 (22.2%) for 8.4pts (+46.6%)
  • those ridden by Charlie Bishop are 6/17 (35.3%) for 24.1pts (+141.6%)
  • LTO winners are 5/15 (33.3%) for 15.66pts (+104.4%)

On top of the above, Mick Channon's handicappers returning to the scene of a past course and distance triumph and were winners anywhere last time out are 9/39 (23.1% SR) for 18pts (+46% ROI) since 2011, from which...

  • those priced at 6/4 to 9/1 are 9/35 (25.7%) for 22pts (+62.7%)
  • those who last ran 6-20 days ago are 8/32 925%) for 22.18pts (+69.3%)
  • C&D winners LTO are 7/27 (25.9%) for 20.7pts (+76.6%)
  • males are 6/23 (26.1%) for 10.3pts (+44.8%)
  • those ridden by Charlie Bishop are 5/11 (45.5%) for 22.1pts (+201%)
  • and here at Epsom : 2/5 (40%) for 10.1pts (+201.8%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Ya Jammeel @ 5/2 BOG which was widely available at 6.25pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 6.25 Epsom...

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 20th July 2017

Wednesday's Result :

3.25 Lingfield : Mamselle @ 7/2 BOG WON at 10/3 Tracked leaders, not much room 3f out, led over 2f out, clear inside final furlong, stayed on well to win by 4.5 lengths.

Thursday's pick goes in the...

7.35 Epsom...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Star of Lombardy @ 3/1 BOG

Why?

A fairly short and straightforward explanation for this one.

Epsom is quirky at best and although this is no Derby or Oaks, previous course experience is very handy to have here and our runner is one just two in the contest to have been here before and ours is the only course winner on display.

That win came over course and distance last time out, a fortnight ago and her career stats suggest she'll feel right at home again today, as she's currently...

  • 3 from 9 in this grade
  • 3 from 8 running 5 to 15 days after her last run
  • 3 from 7 in fields of 5 to 7 runners
  • 3 from 6 at odds of 5/2 to 4/1
  • and 2 from 6 under Franny Norton who also rode her here last time out.

Added to the above, we have a small dataset regarding the trainer/jockey/track combination as Mark Johnston's handicappers priced at 10/1 and shorter here at Epsom are 3 from 8 (37.5% SR) for 9.95pts (+124.4% ROI) profit when riden by Franny Norton, whose own record here at Epsom with horses priced at 12/1 and shorter stands at 4/10 (40%) for 26.17pts (+261.7%) since the start of last season alone.

...and so, it's...a 1pt win bet on Star of Lombardy @ 3/1 BOG which was available in several places at 6.30pm on Wednesday with some 7/2 BOG on offer at Bet365 for those able to do so!. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 7.35 Epsom...

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 13th July 2017

Wednesday's Result :

8.55 Kempton : Hackney Road @ 4/1 BOG 2nd at 5/2 Mid-division, headway over 2f out, every chance inside final furlong, ran on, held close home, beaten by a neck.

Thursday's pick goes in the...

7.45 Epsom...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Tapis Libre9/4 BOG

Why?

A winner over this trip at a higher grade under today's jockey, when last seen 26 days ago and now drops in class for a return to Epsom to take a fourth crack at this very race, having won it twice already.

That fact alone sent me scurrying through his career stats and as such today's selection is what I tend to call a "profile pick", you might call it horses for courses or similar and it could certainly be seen as an extension of the excellent Geegeez Shortlist report.

Taps Libre's record on the Flat is very good indeed and he's profitable to follow, his 12 wins from 61 (19.7% SR) have yielded some 21.03pts profit at an attractive ROI of 34.5%, but in terms of today's contest, he has some superb numbers behind him, namely...

  • in handicaps : 12/58 (20.7%) for 24.03pts (+41.4%)
  • 6-45 days after he last ran : 11/49 (22.5%) for 24.3pts (+49.5%)
  • in fields of 5-13 runners : 12/42 (28.6%) for 40pts (+95.3%)
  • at odds of 12/1 and shorter : 12/24 (50%) for 58.03pts (+241.8%)
  • over 1m4f/1m4.5f : 7/23 (30.4%) for 20.09pts (+87.3%)
  • when ridden by today's jockey, Joanna Mason : 7/15 (46.7%) for 28.2pts (+188.1%)
  • after a win LTO : 5/12 (41.7%) for 20.7pts (+172.3%)
  • in the month of July : 4/12 933.3%) for 9.2pts (+76.5%)
  • when sent off as favourite : 3/3 (100%) for 7.78pts (+259.4%)
  • here at Epsom : 2/3 (66.7%) for 4.16pts (+138.6%), all over course and distance and all in this very race!

AND...from the above : Priced at 10/1 and shorter in a 5-13 runner handicap 6-45 days after he last ran : 11/16 (68.75% SR) for 57.25pts (+357.8% ROI), from which...

  • over 1m4f/1m4.5f : 6/8 (75%) for 26.31pts (+328.9%)
  • under Joanna Mason : 6/7 (85.7%) for 27.43pts (+391.9%)
  • and under Joanna Mason over 1m4f/1m4.5f : 5/6 (83.3%) for 24.8pts (+413.4%)

...justifying...a 1pt win bet on Tapis Libre9/4 BOG which was available from Betway, Betfair, Ladbrokes, Paddy Power and SkyBet at 6.00pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 7.45 Epsom..

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Sat TV Trends: 3rd June 2017

It's DERBY DAY folks !! Yes, it's that time of year again as this season's crop of the best 3 year-old middle distance horses do battle on the Epsom Downs - Aidan O'Brien will be looking for his sixth Derby success, but there is plenty of opposition against his Irish raiders this year. So, like all Saturday's we've got all the LIVE ITV races covered from a trends angle - use these key stats to find the best profiles of past winners.

 

 

Epsom Horse Racing Trends (RUK/ITV)

2.00 - Investec Private Banking Handicap Stakes (Handicap) Cl2 1m2f18y ITV

14/14 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
12/14 – Never run at Epsom before
12/14 – Had won over 1m before (4 over 1m2f)
11/14 – Winners from stall 6 or higher
10/14 – Placed last time out
10/14 – Carried 8-10 or more
9/14 – Returned 11/2 or shorter in the betting
8/14 – Favourites that were placed
8/14 – Horses placed from stall 1
4/14 – Won their previous race
3/14 – Winners from stall 1
3/14 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
3/14 – Won by trained Sir Michael Stoute
3/14 – Won by trained Sylvester Kirk
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 11/1
Stall 2 has just one place to its name in the last 14 runnings

2.35 - Princess Elizabeth Stakes (Sponsored By Investec) (Group 3) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 1m114y ITV

14/14 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
14/14 – Had won at Listed or Group 3 class before
12/14 – Drawn in stall 4,5,6 or 7
12/14 – Favourites placed
11/14 – Had won between 4-6 times before
11/14 – Finished in the top three last time out
11/14 – Aged either 4 or 5 years-old
11/14 – Had won over at least a mile before
11/14 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
9/14 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
9/14 – Had raced within the last month
8/14 – Aged 4 years-old
8/14 – Had raced at Epsom before
7/14 – Winning favourites
7/14 – Won last time out
7/14 – Drawn in either stall 5 or 6
4/14 – Raced at Goodwood last time out
4/14 – Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor
3/14 – Won by a Cheveley Park-owned horse
2/14 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
Epsom Icon won the race 12 months ago
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 9/2

 

3.10 – INVESTEC DIOMED STAKES (Group 3) (CLASS 1) (3yo+) 1m 114y ITV

Your first 30 days for just £1

14/14 – Had won over at least a mile before
12/14 – Had won a Listed or Group race before
12/14 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
11/14 – Had won at least 4 times before
11/14 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
11/14 – Aged 5 or older
11/14 – Drawn in stall 6 or lower
10/14 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
10/14 – Had raced at Epsom before
10/14 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
8/14 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
3/14 – Trained by Andrew Balding
3/14 – Won last time out
3/14 – Winning favourites
2/14 - Ridden by William Buick
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 7/1

 

3.45 – Investec Corporate Banking "Dash" (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 5f ITV

15/15 – Didn’t win last time out
13/15 – Raced within the last 6 weeks (11 within the last 4 weeks)
12/15 – Came from stall 8 or higher
11/15 – Carried 9-1 or less in weight
11/15– Unplaced favourites
11/15 – Won by horses aged between 5 and 8 years-old (inc)
10/15 – Had raced at Epsom previously (only 3 had won)
9/15 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
3/15 – Horses from stall 1 that hit the frame
1/15 – Favourites
The average winning SP in the last 10 renewals is 14/1

 

4.30 – Investec Derby (Group 1) (Entire Colts & Fillies) Cl1 1m4f10y ITV

15/15 – Raced no more than 5 times before
15/15 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
14/15 – Ran within the last 5 weeks
14/15 – Had won a Group race before
14/15 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
11/15 – Won from a single-figure stall
11/15 – Won last time out
11/15 – Favourites that were placed
10/15 – Had run over at least 1m2f before
10/15 – Had raced no more than 3 times before
8/15 – Had won a Group One before
7/15 – Irish-trained winners
6/15 – Won by the favourite
4/15 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (won 5 in all)
4/15 – Won the Dante Stakes (York) last time out
3/15 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute (won 5 in all)
2/15 – Winners from stall 12 or higher
1/15 – Won over 1m4f before
0/15 – Run at the course before
The average winning SP in the last 15 runnings is 4/1
10 Dante winners went onto win the Derby (Golden Horn, 2015 being the most-recent)
Only 1 horse that was beaten in the Dante (Workforce) went onto win the Derby

Epsom Derby Trainer Stats
Sir Michael Stoute won the race in 2010, 2004, 2003, 1986 & 1981
Aidan O’Brien won the race in 2002, 2001, 2012, 2013 & 2014

 Follow Andy Newton Here - @NewtsDailyLays

 

 

Trainers Quotes

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Stat of the Day, 2nd June 2017

Thursday's Result :

6.50 Newcastle : Fredricka @ 7/2 BOG 2nd at 15/8 Led, driven when challenged from well over 1f out, headed and no extra close home.

Friday's pick goes in the...

2.35 Epsom...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Remarkable @ 7/2 BOG

Why?

Over the last 30 days, trainer John Gosden's horses are 17 from 84 (20.2%), so the yard is clearly in good nick, as is today's jockey, the shy introverted Mr Frankie Dettori, whose own 30-day tally stands at 16 from 56 (28.6%) with a 4 from 7 record over the past week. And together over the last 30 days, the Gosden/Dettori partnership is 9 from 29 (31% SR).

Here at Epsom, Mr Gosden is 12/47 (25.5% SR) since the start of the 2012 season, whilst Frankie is 6/22 (27.3% SR) since 2014 and together in that time, the pair have teamed up for 5 winners from 9 (55.6% SR) and 5.06pts (+56.3% ROI) profits. Of those 9 runners, those in the 4/6 to 9/2 price range are 5/6 (83.3%) for 8.06pts (+134.4%), from which Class 2 runners are 3/4 (75%) for 4.18pts (+104.5%)

And...also since the start of the 2014 campaign, the Gosden runners at 8/8.5 furlongs are 132/568 (23.2% SR) for 135.8pts (+23.9% ROI), including...

  • males at 82/351 (23.4%) for 93pts (+26.5%)
  • handicappers at 31/144 (21.5%) for 46.9pts (+32.6%)
  • and on good ground : 26/114 (22.8%) for 96.7pts (+84.8%)

...all pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Remarkable7/2 BOG which was widely available at 8.00pm on Thursday, but those able to take the 4/1 BOG offered by minor players 10Bet, NetBet and/or 188Bet would be advised to do so. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.35 Epsom

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

Stat of the Day, 8th September 2016

Wednesday's Result :

2.30 Doncaster : Mutawatheb @ 9/2 BOG 3rd at 11/4 (Led, pushed along over 2f out, ridden and headed inside final furlong, kept on, but beaten by a length attempting to concede 11lbs to the winner!)

Thursday's pick goes in the...

4.25 Epsom :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

So Celebre at 4/1 BOG

Why?

In the last days, both today's jockey and trainer have been in decent form, with Jim Crowley riding 26 winners from 110 (23.6% SR) on the Flat for profits of 28pts (+25.5% ROI) and he now has a rare booking for Ian Williams, who has also been amongst the winners of late with a 5 from 25 (20% SR) record in handicaps in the same time frame, that has yielded 10.04pts at an ROI of 40.16%.

They team up with So Celebre, who also has been running well and is a qualifier for my "Ted Rogers" micro-system. Basically I'm looking for horses on the Flat with a form line reading 321! These horses are clearly improving as they go and providing they haven't peaked, they're a good bet to go in again, as since the start of the 2014 campaign, such runners are 66/297 (22.2% SR) for 95.8pts (+32.3% ROI).

Of those 297 runners, we can also highlight the following data of interest today...

  • those running within 45 days of that LTO win are 59/247 (23.9%) for 88.4pts (+35.8%)
  • 2/3 yr olds are 49/189 (25.9%) for 106.9pts (+56.6%)
  • and over trips of 7 to 12 furlongs : 44/178 (24.7%) for 93.7pts (+52.7%)

...and if you wanted to combine the subsets, I suggest a focus is placed on 2/3 yr olds running 1-45dslr over 7f to 1m2.5f, as these are 21/72 (29.2%) for 52.7pts +73.2%) with sub-5/1 runners scoring on 17 of 39 occasions (+43.6%) for profits of 23.9pts (+61.2%)

And after the trainer, the jockey and the horse's stats, how about his father? The sire is Peintre Celebre, whose offspring have been profitable to follow for a while now and over the last 500 days, they have won 32 of 214 (14.95% SR) for 42.6pts (+19.9% ROI) profit, with those running in Flat (turf) contests winning 18 of 127 (14.2%) for 44.8pts (+35.2%).

Of those 127 runners on the Flat...

  • 6-60 dslr = 17/99 (17.2%) for 67pts (+67.7%)
  • in hcps : 16/90 (17.8%) for 41.7pys (+46.3%)
  • over 9.5 to 10.5 furlongs : 6/42 (14.3%) for 19.4pts (+46.1%)
  • on good ground : 6/41 (14.6%) for 45.4pts (+110.7%)

...directing me to...a 1pt win bet on So Celebre at 4/1 BOG with any/all of Betfair Sports, Paddy Power and/or SkyBet who headed the market at 7.40pm on Wednesday, but to see your preferred bookies' odds, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.25 Epsom.

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

Stat of the Day, 29th August 2016

Saturday's Result :

5.45 Cartmel : Noble Call @ 11/2 BOG 3rd at 7/2 (In touch, ridden before last, kept on run-in)

Monday's pick goes in the...

5.25 Epsom :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Your first 30 days for just £1

Who?

Crowning Glory at 4/1 BOG

Why?

This 3 yr old filly has been going well, winning two of her last five starts and only headed late on in a narrow defeat here over course and distance last time out, 32 days ago.

She's a former winner at this trip and has 2 wins and that LTO runner-up finish to her name from three efforts in this grade and hails from an in-form yard, as three of Ralph Beckett's last seven runners have been winners, but that comes as little surprise as he's a profitable trainer to follow generally.

And since 2008, Ralph's Flat handicappers priced at 11/4 to 12/1 are 125/847 (14.8% SR) for profits of 135.1pts at an ROI of 16% which, in respect of today's race, can be analysed as follows...

  • over trips of 6f to 1.5 miles : 104/678 (15.3%) for 138.8pts (+20.5%)
  • those running 11-45 dslr : 96/605 (15.9%) for 131.7pts (+21.8%)
  • females are 60/388 (15.5%) for 53.6pts (+13.8%)
  • at Class 4 : 46/284 (16.2%) for 59.53pts (+21%)
  • Ralph's only runner of the day : 19/123 (15.5%) for 29.7pts (+24.1%)
  • beaten by less than 1L LTO : 14/73(19.2%) for 15.8pts (+21.7%)
  • here at Epsom : 7/35 (20%) for 6.19pts (+17.7%)

...steering us towards...

a 1pt win bet on Crowning Glory at 4/1 BOG, from any of Bet365, BetVictor, Betway, Coral and/or Hills all quoting that price at 9.10pm on Sunday evening, but to see your preferred bookies' odds, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 5.25 Epsom.

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

Stat of the Day, 29th August 2016

Saturday's Result :

5.45 Cartmel : Noble Call @ 11/2 BOG 3rd at 7/2 (In touch, ridden before last, kept on run-in)

Monday's pick goes in the...

5.25 Epsom :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Crowning Glory at 4/1 BOG

Why?

This 3 yr old filly has been going well, winning two of her last five starts and only headed late on in a narrow defeat here over course and distance last time out, 32 days ago.

She's a former winner at this trip and has 2 wins and that LTO runner-up finish to her name from three efforts in this grade and hails from an in-form yard, as three of Ralph Beckett's last seven runners have been winners, but that comes as little surprise as he's a profitable trainer to follow generally.

And since 2008, Ralph's Flat handicappers priced at 11/4 to 12/1 are 125/847 (14.8% SR) for profits of 135.1pts at an ROI of 16% which, in respect of today's race, can be analysed as follows...

  • over trips of 6f to 1.5 miles : 104/678 (15.3%) for 138.8pts (+20.5%)
  • those running 11-45 dslr : 96/605 (15.9%) for 131.7pts (+21.8%)
  • females are 60/388 (15.5%) for 53.6pts (+13.8%)
  • at Class 4 : 46/284 (16.2%) for 59.53pts (+21%)
  • Ralph's only runner of the day : 19/123 (15.5%) for 29.7pts (+24.1%)
  • beaten by less than 1L LTO : 14/73(19.2%) for 15.8pts (+21.7%)
  • here at Epsom : 7/35 (20%) for 6.19pts (+17.7%)

...steering us towards...a 1pt win bet on Crowning Glory at 4/1 BOG, from any of Bet365, BetVictor, Betway, Coral and/or Hills all quoting that price at 9.10pm on Sunday evening, but to see your preferred bookies' odds, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 5.25 Epsom.

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

Sat TV Trends: 4th June 2016

It’s Derby Day on the Epsom Downs this weekend and like every Saturday - Andy Newton’s got all the LIVE C4 races covered from a trends and stats angle……

Did you know that 13 of the last 14 Epsom Derby winners had finished 1st or 2nd in their last race, while 10 of the last 14 Derby winners came from a single-figure stall?

tvtrends-300x73

 

 

 

EPSOM Horse Racing Trends (C4/RUK)

 

2.00 - Investec Private Banking Handicap Stakes (Handicap) Cl2 1m2f18y CH4

13/13 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
11/13 – Never run at Epsom before
11/13 – Had won over 1m before (4 over 1m2f)
10/13 – Placed last time out
10/13 – Winners from stall 6 or higher
10/13 – Carried 8-10 or more
9/13 – Returned 11/2 or shorter in the betting
8/13 – Favourites that were placed
8/13 – Horses placed from stall 1
4/13 – Won their previous race
3/13 – Winners from stall 1
3/13 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
3/13 – Won by trained Sir Michael Stoute
2/13 – Won by trained Sylvester Kirk
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 8.4/1
Stall 2 has just one place to its name in the last 12 runnings

Your first 30 days for just £1

 

2.35 - Princess Elizabeth Stakes (Sponsored By Investec) (Group 3) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 1m114y CH4

12/13 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
13/13 – Had won at Listed or Group 3 class before
11/13 – Finished in the top three last time out
11/13 – Aged either 4 or 5 years-old
11/13 – Had won over at least a mile before
11/13 – Drawn in stall 4,5,6 or 7
11/13 – Had won between 4-6 times before
11/13 – Favourites placed
10/13 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
9/13 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
8/13 – Had raced within the last month
8/13 – Aged 4 years-old
7/13 – Winning favourites
7/13 – Won last time out
7/13 – Had raced at Epsom before
7/13 – Drawn in either stall 5 or 6
4/13 – Raced at Goodwood last time out
4/13 – Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor
3/13 – Won by a Cheveley Park-owned horse
2/13 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 4/1

 

3.10 - Queen Elizabeth II Coronation Cup (Sponsored by Investec) (Group 1) Cl1 1m4f10y CH4

13/13 – Aged 6 or younger
13/13 – Had previously won a Group 1 or 2 race
12/13 – Had won over 1m4f before
12/13 – Finished in the top three last time out
10/13 – Ran at either Chester, York, Newmarket or the Curragh last time out
10/13 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
10/13 – Aged either 4 or 5 years-old
8/13 – Horses from stall 3 that were placed (two won)
8/13 – Favourites placed
7/13 – Won by Aidan O’Brien (2005, 2007, 2008, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013)
5/13 – Won their last race
4/13 – Winning favourites
4/13 – Had run at Epsom before
2/13 – Ridden by Ryan Moore (2009, 2011)
1/13 – Winner from stall 1
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 3/1

 

3.45 – Investec Corporate Banking "Dash" (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 5f CH4

14/14 – Didn’t win last time out
13/14 – Raced within the last 6 weeks (11 within the last 4 weeks)
11/14 – Came from stall 8 or higher
11/14 – Carried 9-1 or less in weight
10/14– Unplaced favourites
10/14 – Won by horses aged between 5 and 8 years-old (inc)
9/14 – Had raced at Epsom previously (only 2 had won)
8/14 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
4/14 – Won by the Dandy Nicholls stable (2002, 2003, 2005, 2009)
3/14 – Horses from stall 1 that hit the frame
1/14 – Favourites
The average winning SP in the last 10 renewals is 15/1

 

4.30 – Investec Derby (Group 1) (Entire Colts & Fillies) Cl1 1m4f10y CH4

14/14 – Ran within the last 5 weeks
14/14 – Raced no more than 5 times before
14/14 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
13/14 – Had won a Group race before
13/14 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
10/14 – Won from a single-figure stall
10/14 – Won last time out
10/14 – Favourites that were placed
9/14 – Had run over at least 1m2f before
9/14 – Had raced no more than 3 times before
8/14 – Had won a Group One before
6/14 – Irish-trained winners
6/14 – Won by the favourite
4/14 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (won 5 in all)
4/14 – Won the Dante Stakes (York, 12th May) last time out
3/14 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute (won 5 in all)
2/14 – Winners from stall 12 or higher
1/14 – Won over 1m4f before
0/14 – Run at the course before
The average winning SP in the last 14 runnings is 7/2
10 Dante winners went onto win the Derby
Only 1 horse that was beaten in the Dante (Workforce) went onto win the Derby

Epsom Derby Trainer/Jockey Stats
Sir Michael Stoute won the race in 2010, 2004, 2003, 1986 & 1981
Aidan O’Brien won the race in 2002, 2001, 2012, 2013 & 2014
Kieren Fallon rode the winner in 2004, 2003 & 1999

 

Trainers Quotes

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"Belcanto won a bumper at this track and has shown promise in a few novice hurdles. She looks to be on a competitive mark and I hope she has every chance of getting her head in front today providing the rain stays away."
Jamie Snowden 01/06/16 1st 3/1

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