Tag Archive for: Epsom racecourse

Tix Picks, Thursday 12/09/24

Thursday's placepots can be played via Tix at Doncaster, Epsom and Newcastle...

But, what is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

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A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

And whilst it's a bumper pot at Donny, I'm not quite ready for four 2yo races, of which the first two have a total of 36 runners! So, I'm seeking the relative safety of the downs with a look at the Epsom card where the going is said to be soft, starting with...

Leg 1 : 2.00 Epsom, a 7-runner, Class 4, 2yo Novice Stakes over 7f
As ever with 2yo novices, not much to work with, but Bold Impact has made the frame in all three starts so far. His yard are in decent nick and have a good record over the last five years at this venue…

Nidaami also made the frame last time out and his yard have a place strike rate in excess of 50% over the last fortnight/month.

It’s unsurprising that this pair will head the market and they’d be the ones I’d focus on too. Of the unraced runners, Luna Girl (by Sea The Stars & Isango) was a 34,000 gns foal and a €95,000 yearling and looks good on breeding, but is, of course unproven.

Leg 2 : 2.35 Epsom, a 15-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ handicap also over 7f
Roscioli comes here in the best form (212 in his last three) whilst Gdaay and King Cabo both won their penultimate outings. Marlay Park won this race in both 2021 and 2023 with Hodler winning it in 2022, whilst Instant Expert suggests Redredrobin and Optiva Star might run big races too…

...whilst Beau Jardine will certainly like the underfoot conditions. Of a limited number of similar races, those drawn more centrally have fared best in the past, whilst those prepared to dictate the terms of the race have also done well and with a pace/draw make-up as follows...

...that's G'daay, Roscioli, Marlay Park, King Cabo and Red Mirage on draw and King Cabo, Red Mirage, The Caribbean and Larado on pace. Counting back, King Cabo has been mentioned more than the others with G'daay, Marlay Park, Red Mirage and Roscioli also ticking more than one box.

I didn't really want to take five runners from one race, but I think that's where I'm at here, although the better/longer odds will probably come from G'daay and King Cabo.

Leg 3 : 3.10 Epsom, a 9-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ handicap over 1m2f
No LTO winners here in what initially looks like a 4-horse race between (in card order) Thursday, Imperial Cult, Mrembo and Daphne May. Thursday and Daphne May were both runners-up last time, though, whilst Imperial Cult has two wins and a runner-up finish in his last four outings.

Of this quartet, Imperial Cult has yet to win over this trip but he’s the only one not stepping up in class, whilst Daphne May is the only previous course winner, having scored over 1m4f here in July 2023 and then over course and distance four weeks later, although she has been beaten in fourteen runs since that second success.

That said, she is the pick of the four on Instant Expert…

The draw here is said to favour low/mid drawn runners, so that counts against Imperial Cult...

...whilst hold-up horses make the frame most often...

...suggesting that Thursday and possibly Daphne May could benefit...

...and based on the above, I think it's this pair of Daphne May and Thursday that I'll go with for leg 3.

Leg 4 : 3.45 Epsom, a 10-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ handicap over 1m4f

Most of this field are stepping up in class, but Miller Spirit drops two classes after finishing 4th of 8 at Goodwood last time around. Parramount was a runner-up on his last start and Haliphon is turned back out just a week after winning on good to soft ground at Haydock. Enochdhu is also of interest here because his yard is in good nick, have a good record here at Epsom and do well with horses turned back out quickly…

and I think that these four would form my shortlist. I suspect Haliphon will go off fairly short after last week's win, so we might need to look elsewhere if we wanted a bit of value with Enochdhu and Parramount the more obvious candidates from that perspective, whilst our pace/draw heat map suggests Haliphon and Parramount are the ones here...

You can make a case for all four, but I definitely want Parramount in my selections based on his last run, his pace/draw heat map and also the place stats on Instant Expert...

...and these also point to Enochdhu running well on the soft ground, so I'll take runners 4 and 6 (Parramont & Enochdhu) here.

Leg 5 : 4.20 Epsom, a 7-runner, Class 6, 3yo handicap also over 1m4f

Dubawi Time has finished 122 in three efforts over today’s trip and he alongside Small Fry (a win and a runner-up finish in his last two) are the form horses here. Dubai Time is actually the only runner in the race to win over this trip and with his yard in such good form, he’s a pick for me here…

I'd be quite happy to take just the one runner from this race, especially as he leads the way on the place pace/draw heatmap...

If you wanted backup picks, both Small Fry and Bittalemon have made the frame in both of their last two outings and both drop in class here and if Bittalemon's first-time blinkers do the trip, he could be the next best to Dubawi Time.

Leg 6 : 4.50 Epsom, a 7-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ handicap over 1m½f

There’s only really Desfondado and New Heights that I’m not keen on here initially.

Local Bay has made the frame in five of his last six, winning four times including last time out, so that’s a major positive, whilst Finn Russell also won his last outing. The fast finishing We’renotreallyhere has finished 213 in his last three outings, but is up in class here today, so that might make life difficult for him, whereas our sole course and distance winner Local Bay actually drops in class.

Finn Russell’s claims are backed up by some decent stats for trainer form, jockey form and trainer/jockey form…

...and I think that those stats above and his LTO win are enough for me to go with Finn Russell along with Local Bay, who I find difficult to overlook here, even of the market seems to disagree.

I'm still having some technical difficulties out here (the Indonesian internet police aren't keen on gambling sites), so still no ABCX perms from me, but to summarise, I've identified the following as runners of interest...

 

Leg 1: horses 2 & 3

Leg 2: horses 3 & 5 (plus possibly 1, 4 & 14 if you're doing the perms)

Leg 3: horses 3 & 8

Leg 4: horses 4 & 6

Leg 5: horse 1 (plus possibly 3)

Leg 6: horses 2 & 6

Fingers crossed!

Chris 



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Racing Insights, Thursday 18/07/24

Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 4.40 Chepstow
  • 4.45 Leopardstown
  • 4.55 Hamilton
  • 6.30 Epsom
  • 7.42 Killarney
  • 8.30 Leopardstown

...where the 'best' (highest rated, anyway!) of the three UK races looks like being the 6.30 Epsom, an 8-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ flat handicap over a left-handed 1m½f (+33yds after rail movements) on good to soft ground...

Blenheim Star was the only one of this field to have won their last race and she has won three of her last four, making her the clear form horse here. Uncle Dick was a runner-up nine days, having won his previous race and Hello Cotai was also a runner-up a week ago and has made the frame in four of his last five, but the fact remains that he's a nine-race maiden.

Charlie Mason was third on his last outing and did win four starts ago, but aside from the two maidens Hello Cotai (9 attempts) and Seamore (three attempts), only Roundabout has struggled to win of late, going down on eight successive occasions since a win at Bath at the end of last August.

Half of the field are moving class here with three (Uncle Dick, Blenheim Star & Hello Cotai) stepping up a level whilst top weight Shot of Love drops down from Class 4. Seamore makes a handicap debut some ten weeks after the last of three fairly nondescript efforts in Novice company and I should point out that five of this field are only 3 yrs old, meaning they get a 9lb allowance that Shot Of Love (4yo), Uncle Dick (6yo) and Roundabout Silver (5yo) don't benefit from.

We've not much to report in the way of course/distance successes, but Unreal Connection's sole career win from eight starts came here at Epsom over 7f eleven months and six starts ago, whilst Uncle Dick was winner over 1m½f at Wolverhampton way back in January 2021. All of this means that Shot of Love's last Flat win (10 months ago) is the only time any of this field have won over course and distance.

The positives from Instant Expert are that Uncle Dick and Blenheim Star have excellent records over this kind of trip winning a collective 9 of 14 (64.3%) races on the Flat, but conversely Roundabout Silver's 0 from 7 at Class 5 isn't something to write home about...

...and although he has a reasonable place record at the going/track/trip, he has only made the frame once in those seven defeats at this level...

Elsewhere Hello Cotai's recent run of near misses raises his profile as a potential placer, but I still think this might be between those who excel at the trip ie Uncle Dick and Blenheim Star, who will race from stalls 3 and 6 over a track and trip that (to me at least) doesn't seem to offer any discernible draw bias, other than that those drawn lowest have an inferior place record, despite winning their fair share of races...

...and I suspect that it'll be race tactics and race positioning aka pace that determines the outcome here, as the best way of winning here is to set the tempo from the front.

...and the advice is that if you can't set the pace, you might as conserve energy at the back of the field and then come with a late run, taking advantage of those who've blown themselves out getting up the hill. Based on recent outings, Shot of Love is likely to be the pacemaker today, with the likes of Uncle Dick, Blenheim Star and Charlie Mason the ones coming with a late run.

Summary

It has been Blenheim Star and Uncle Dick getting the mentions throughout my summary. Both are in good form, of course, but Blenheim Star is in the better form and benefits from that 9lbs age allowance, so I'd take Blenheim Star to beat Uncle Dick here. As for the other placer, Hello Cotai has made the frame in four of his last five and he could easily makes that five from six here.

I'd no odds to quote at 4pm Wednesday, but I wouldn't be too surprised in the top three in the market are my 1-2-3 and I suspect that none will be E/W backable, but if you wanted an E/W play, then Charlie Mason might be best positioned to edge one of my three out as he's likely to come late with Blenheim Star and Uncle Dick, who might just tow him into contention.



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Racing Insights, Saturday 01/06/24

Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following runners for me to check out...

...in addition to our daily list of fully functional 'free' racecards, which for this Saturday cover...

  • 2.00 Epsom
  • 2.20 Worcester
  • 2.25 Listowel
  • 4.45 Musselburgh
  • 6.15 Doncaster
  • 6.28 Stratford

...from which the highlight has to be the nine-runner, Group 3, Princess Elizabeth Stakes for 3yo+ Fillies & Mares, shown on your racecards as the 2.00 Epsom, where they'll go left-handed on good to soft ground over a trip just three yards beyond 1m½f...

Royal Dress and Sea of Thieves both managed to win last time out at Listed class with the former beating the re-opposing Breege (finished third) by just two short heads in a tight contest at Goodwood four weeks ago, whilst Running Lion was a 3.5-length runner-up in the Group 2 Dahlia Stakes a day later at Newmarket. Two of this field are on losing runs with Breege winless in ten since scoring on debut just over two years ago, whilst Julia Augusta has lost seven on the bounce since opening her career with a pair of Class 5 wins over a mile and she's also almost two years without a win.

Julia Augusta was fourth in a Listed race for Roger Varian eight weeks ago and now makes a yard debut for David O'Meara, Sea Of Thieves wears a tongue tie for the first time on her return to UK action. She won a Listed race in France LTO, but is up two classes from her last UK run. Sparks Fly is also up in class after a 3.5 length defeat in a Class 2 handicap at Haydock five weeks ago and the quickest-turned back out (20 days), Chic Columbine is denoted as a fast-finisher. She (along with Glimpsed) gets a 12lb age allowance here as a 3yr old and that effectively makes her best off at the weights, as she's rated just 3lbs lower than Running Lion and Sparks Fly (103 vs 106). The afore mentioned Julia Augusta, however, carries 12lbs more than Chic Columbine despite being rated some 11lbs lower!

Astral Beau was third of six in this race last year and that's the only time any of this field have raced here at Epsom before, but Astral Beau, Julia Augusta, Royal Dress and Sparks Fly have all scored over 1m to 1m1f on the Flat, according to Instant Expert, where Sparks Fly has the best relevant record and Astral Beau the worst...

Admittedly, there's not a great deal of data to work with, but Sparks Fly's 2 from 3 on the going and 6 from 6 at the trip are certainly worth noting, as are Astral Beau's 1 from 7 at Class 1 and her 1 from 9 at the trip sadly. Breege, as we know, hasn't won any of her last ten and most have been Class 1 affairs over similar trips but I wouldn't write her off just yet, as she certainly knows how to make the frame at this level...

...where her Class 1 form line reads 32725423, putting her right into contention for at least a place again today along with Running Lion whose own Class 1 form reads 12382. Chic Columbine has won four of her last five, but they've all been at 6½f/7f, so this is a fairly big step in trip today for her.

Past similar (slightly expanded criteria, of course to get workable data) races show no real draw bias here...

...and there's probably no real pace bias either from those races, even if prominent runners have a much poorer win percentage...

I'm happy to overlook that relatively low 7 from 77 return, because those runners have made the frame as often as the other styles and could have just been a bit unlucky; they're probably only 2 or 3 winners shy of par.

So without a pace and/or draw bias, I'm going to class this as a fair race, where the best horses should prevail all being well and based on form / Instant Expert, I'd lean towards (in card order) Breege, Running Lion, Sparks Fly and Chic Columbine as being the four to choose from.

When we talk about the draw and the pace of a race, it's often useful to look at how they interact, because in those races above there is no obvious bias in either pace or draw, but when combined...

...we'd ideally have a high drawn runner in mid-division dropping in for a late run or a runner in stalls 1-6 leading the way, which makes the following quite interesting...

Astral Beau was third in this race last year, Sparks Fly was the standout on Instant Expert and Breege is the perennial placer.

Summary

The analysis above led me to believe that the winner and placers would come from Breege, Running Lion, Sparks Fly and Chic Columbine, whilst the pace/draw heat map threw Astral Beau's name into the ring, making the market as of 4.30pm Friday of little/no surprise to anyone...

...other than perhaps a feeling that Running Lion might be a little on the short side after being overturned as a 6/4 fav last time out. On her day, she's probably the pick here, but I'm not sensing a great deal of value at 15/8 so whilst she might very well go on to win, she won't be burdened with the weight of my money!

Sparks Fly is really interesting, of course but not backable for me at 5/1, but if you do want an E/W punt then any (or all) of the next three in the betting could be the way forward. God, I hate agreeing with the bookies!

Have a great weekend, guys (and girls, of course!)...
Chris



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Racing Insights, Tuesday 23/04/24

The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information] and here is Tuesday's Shortlist...

...and whilst none are perfect, the 7.30 Wolverhampton has two representatives above and might be interesting. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...

  • 1.45 Southwell
  • 3.20 Epsom
  • 3.30 Southwell
  • 5.10 Gowran Park
  • 5.20 Tipperary

...and from all of those above, the highest-rated race is the 3.20 Epsom. It might only have seven runners, but it looks like a really competitive Class 2, 4yo+ flat handicap over a left-handed 1m2f on good ground...

Qitaal is the only LTO winner in the field and has won two of his last three starts, whilst both Felix and Ziggy had top three finishes on their last outings. Ziggy has won two of his last five, but Felix has lost fifteen on the bounce in a run stretching back to January 2021. Silent Film has also failed to win since 2021 (June in this case), suffering eight losses on the spin despite the card denoted him as being a fast finisher. Crystal Delight has lost ten on the bounce since December 2022 and Western Soldier makes a UK turf debut after a win and a place in five hurdle contests, although his last three runs have been poor.

It's new yard debut day Crystal Delight and Western Soldier with the latter also wearing a tongue tie for the first time on his handicap debut as he returns to action following a wind op. Qitaal runs in a handicap for just the second time, a month after scoring at Doncaster on handicap debut defying a 687-day layoff! At 30 days since his last run, Qitaal is actually the quickest turned back out of the field, with none of his rivals being seen for over 9 weeks. Ziggy hasn't raced for 15 months!

Silent Film and Dual Identity have both ran here at Epsom before, but neither have won here and the former is one of just two, along with Western Soldier, yet to win over today's trip. From the limited amount of information carried by Instant Expert for this field...

...I have concerns over the win percentages of Silent Film and Dual Identity at this grade, whilst Crystal Delight looks generally weak. Qitaal's mark is now 6lbs higher than his LTO win, but that looks quite reasonable when you see that Dual Identity, Silent Film, Ziggy and Felix are all 7 to 15lbs higher than their own last winning marks on the Flat. Qitaal has never raced on good ground, but with a good to soft win and a good to firm place, there's no reason why he shouldn't 'get' the going here.

If we then look at the place stats...

...Silent Film's record at this level is unchanged, but Dual Identity has at least got himself out of the red on class. Ziggy' place form at going/distance is really interesting, but Felix seems to prefer 1m on turf, although he has a good place record at 1m1½f/1m2f on the A/W.

The draw stats are interesting here with those drawn in stalls 1-3 looking like they'd have the best of it...

...but the PRB3 figures also suggest that those drawn highest also have a great chance of making the frame, but I suspect that with only seven runners over a fair distance that the pace of the race will have a greater bearing on the outcome and of those 50-odd races above, it's clear to see what tactics have worked best...

Essentially, if you can lead, do so. If you can't get as close in as you can! Leaders and prominent runners make up approx 46% of the runners (171/372), but account for over 64% (34/53) of the winners and almost 55% (68/124) of the placers with those racing further back much less likely to succeed, which based on this field's most recent outings...

...suggests that the likes of Qitaal and Ziggy might be the ones setting the pace, but Felix looks well up against it, if he's going to race in the rear.

Summary

At the start, I said this looked competitive and it still looks that way, although not especially in a good sense. In-form Qitaal is the stand-out for me based on the 'evidence' above, but the others are all much of a muchness, if truth be told and you can make cases for and against all of them. The 4.30pm market looked like this...

...and the 11/4 about Qitaal seems fair (I had him at around 5/2). Western Soldier does look the least likely, but he's a 14/1 to 16/1 shot in my eyes, but I wouldn't entertain an E/W bet on him. there's no E/W pick from me here, but if pushed to pick one for the forecast, I think Dual Identity has the fewest negatives about him.



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Racing Insights, Monday 28/08/23

Monday’s free feature of the day is the pace tab for all races. This is available to all free registered users of Geegeez and gives huge insight into which runners might be most or least disadvantaged by their early positions in each race.

The free races of the day on Monday are...

  • 2.00 Southwell
  • 2.05 Downpatrick
  • 2.30 Epsom
  • 2.50 Chepstow
  • 3.50 Downpatrick
  • 4.15 Epsom

And of the four UK races above, the highest-rated handicap also has the widest variance in pace profiles, so let's have a quick look at the 4.15 Epsom, a 10-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ flat handicap over a -handed 1m2f on good ground...

None of these managed to win on their last outings, but Zhang Fei, Ribal and Oh So Grand were placed and the latter had won two on the bounce before that run, whilst only God Of Fire and Flight of Angels are the others to have won at least once in their last five efforts.

Zhang Fei, Ribal, Oh So Grand, Light Up Stars and Giovanni Baglione all step up a class here, but Flight of Angels drops down from Class 3 for a race which sees God Of Fire wear a tongue tie for the first time and Ribal wears first-time cheekpieces. Zhang Fei is hooded for his yard debut for John Gallagher.

This will be Oh So Grand's second run in a handicap and he's one of just three (along with Light Up Our Stars and Flight of Angels) to have won at this trip already, with Light Up, Our Stars the sole previous course winner, courtesy of a course and distance success almost 14 months ago.

This field's lack of course/distance success is, of course, shown up in Instant Expert...

...which hardly sets the pulse racing!

Udaberri and Light Up Our Stars look weak in this grade and although a course and distance winner, the latter's record at this trip leaves a bit to be desired. Elsewhere, there's little to help me here, I just hope the place stats are better!

Thankfully, they are! My general rule of thumb with relying on place form is to eliminate any runner that has no green for the going/class/course distance columns, so I'm just going to focus on these runners going forward...

Having discarded runners in stalls 5, 6 & 8, I'm hoping that our draw analyser is going to tell me that a low draw is favoured here...

...and whilst it's not a huge bias, it does seem the lower draws win more often and the PRB3 scores would be against the higher drawn runners...

That said, having the better draw over a trip of 1m2f isn't the be all and end all and much will, of course, depend on how the runners use their starting position and those races above have, according to our pace analyser, tended to suit runners racing prominently stalking the leader(s)...

...which based on their recent efforts would seem to suit Ribal and possibly Zhang Fei if Flight Of Angels and Oh So Grand decide to take it on early...

Of course, Oh So Grand might sit just off the leader like he did last time out, which could well be the best play here and our pace/draw heat map suggests the four runners mentioned are best positioned...

Summary

The four at the top end of that pace/draw heatmap are the ones I want to focus on here and I think it's a 2-way battle between Ribal and Oh So Grand here. Both are in decent form, both get a 7lb weight allowance as three year olds and both are drawn relatively low. Both are priced at around the 3/1 mark and if pushed, I'd take the filly Oh So Grand over Ribal, based on her two recent victories.

As for the placer, the 9/1 Zhang Fei could well be dangerous if tuned up for his yard debut, but the 132-day absence is a bit of a nagging concern, so it might be safer to side with the equally 9/1 priced Flight of Angels who had been in good form over this kind of trip prior to stepping up to 1m4f last time out. She weakened late on that day at Salisbury, but should go well on the front end (Joe Fanning is excellent at reading the pace of a race) back down in trip.



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Racing Insights, Friday 02/06/23

Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the H4C report...

...have sadly yielded no qualifiers, but your own chosen parameters might give more joy. Thankfully, this free report is, of course, backed up by our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 3.10 Epsom
  • 6.05 Stratford
  • 6.35 Stratford
  • 7.20 Tramore
  • 8.05 Stratford
  • 8.25 Catterick

...the best of which is clearly the Coronation Cup aka the 3.10 Epsom, a 5-runner, Group 1 flat contest for runners aged 4 and over. The trip is a left handed mile and a half on good ground and here's the card...

Only five go to post and you could make a reasonable case for all of them, so let's have a quick look at them...

HURRICANE LANE won the Dante, the Irish Derby and the St Leger last season and won the Gr2 Jockey Club Stakes at Newmarket four weeks ago. Loves good ground, has won a couple of times at this trip and is a major contender here.

POINT LONSDALE has won a pair of Gr3 and a pair of Gr2 contests but hasn't quite got his nose in front at Group 1. Steps up to 1m4f for the first time and whilst he is undoubtedly talented, I fear the ground might be too quick for him here on the faster side of good.

TUNNES won the German St Leger and a Munich Group 1 race last autumn and now makes a UK debut 40 days after finishing second in the Gr2 Carl Jaspers Preis at Cologne. This is tougher and he was beaten by more than 3 lengths last time out, despite going off at 9/10.

WESTOVER was third in the Derby here last year before going on to win the Irish version three weeks later. Hasn't been seen in UK/Ireland since flopping in the King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Qipco Stakes at Ascot last July, but was sixth in the Arc and ran a very good second behind Equinox in the Gr1 Dubai Sheema Classic at Meydan ten weeks ago. Much will depend on which Westover turns up.

EMILY UPJOHN is the only female in the race and she too hasn't been seen for some time, as it's now 230 days since she landed the Gr1 Fillies and Mares Stakes at Ascot in October. She was unlucky not to win the Oaks here a year ago, going down by just a short head despite stumbling out of the stalls. Her 3lb allowance might be key, because she's a classy filly. Oh, and don't forget the Frankie factor!

Instant Expert only covers UK/Irish form, so we've nothing on Tunnes, but just look how good his rivals have performed under similar conditions...

All three course losers did make the frame and there's very little for me to pick apart here. The three to have tackled this trip have all actually done better over shorter and Point Lonsdale's best form is on soft (or worse) ground, so this might be a bit quick for him in the sunshine.

There's not a huge draw bias here, as you'd probably expect from a small field over a fairly long race...

...although those drawn higher do edge it on place results. Pace, however, is a different story...

Prominent runners fare best, suggesting that leaders get stalked and passed, whilst a hold-up approach is a definite no-no here on the Downs over this trip in a small field. That said, none of the four we have data for are hold-up horses, based on their last four outings...

...but those numbers suggest Point Lonsdale and Westover might fight it out and become vulnerable to being picked off by Hurricane Lane and Emily Upjohn.

Summary

I've disregarded Tunnes because I don't know a great deal about him and I don't think his run last time out was good enough to make him a likely winner here, so I'm down to the four I do have data about.

Point Lonsdale and Westover might do too much early on and become targets and I think the ground will be too quick for the former. Hurricane Lane's past achievements speak for themselves and Emily Upjohn is a really good filly and her 3lbs allowance will be more than useful here, so I'm taking Hurricane Lane to beat Emily Upjohn.

The bookies disagree and they've go Westover as the 9/4 fav, whilst my 1-2 are currently 4/1 and 3/1, but the market isn't always right!



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Race Histories 6: City and Suburban and Great Metropolitan Handicaps

Today’s Epsom card features two longstanding races whose importance has slipped over the years, but which nevertheless have a significant place in the history of the sport. Read more



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