Tix Picks, Thursday 12/09/24

Thursday's placepots can be played via Tix at Doncaster, Epsom and Newcastle...

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A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

And whilst it's a bumper pot at Donny, I'm not quite ready for four 2yo races, of which the first two have a total of 36 runners! So, I'm seeking the relative safety of the downs with a look at the Epsom card where the going is said to be soft, starting with...

Leg 1 : 2.00 Epsom, a 7-runner, Class 4, 2yo Novice Stakes over 7f
As ever with 2yo novices, not much to work with, but Bold Impact has made the frame in all three starts so far. His yard are in decent nick and have a good record over the last five years at this venue…

Nidaami also made the frame last time out and his yard have a place strike rate in excess of 50% over the last fortnight/month.

It’s unsurprising that this pair will head the market and they’d be the ones I’d focus on too. Of the unraced runners, Luna Girl (by Sea The Stars & Isango) was a 34,000 gns foal and a €95,000 yearling and looks good on breeding, but is, of course unproven.

Leg 2 : 2.35 Epsom, a 15-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ handicap also over 7f
Roscioli comes here in the best form (212 in his last three) whilst Gdaay and King Cabo both won their penultimate outings. Marlay Park won this race in both 2021 and 2023 with Hodler winning it in 2022, whilst Instant Expert suggests Redredrobin and Optiva Star might run big races too…

...whilst Beau Jardine will certainly like the underfoot conditions. Of a limited number of similar races, those drawn more centrally have fared best in the past, whilst those prepared to dictate the terms of the race have also done well and with a pace/draw make-up as follows...

...that's G'daay, Roscioli, Marlay Park, King Cabo and Red Mirage on draw and King Cabo, Red Mirage, The Caribbean and Larado on pace. Counting back, King Cabo has been mentioned more than the others with G'daay, Marlay Park, Red Mirage and Roscioli also ticking more than one box.

I didn't really want to take five runners from one race, but I think that's where I'm at here, although the better/longer odds will probably come from G'daay and King Cabo.

Leg 3 : 3.10 Epsom, a 9-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ handicap over 1m2f
No LTO winners here in what initially looks like a 4-horse race between (in card order) Thursday, Imperial Cult, Mrembo and Daphne May. Thursday and Daphne May were both runners-up last time, though, whilst Imperial Cult has two wins and a runner-up finish in his last four outings.

Of this quartet, Imperial Cult has yet to win over this trip but he’s the only one not stepping up in class, whilst Daphne May is the only previous course winner, having scored over 1m4f here in July 2023 and then over course and distance four weeks later, although she has been beaten in fourteen runs since that second success.

That said, she is the pick of the four on Instant Expert…

The draw here is said to favour low/mid drawn runners, so that counts against Imperial Cult...

...whilst hold-up horses make the frame most often...

...suggesting that Thursday and possibly Daphne May could benefit...

...and based on the above, I think it's this pair of Daphne May and Thursday that I'll go with for leg 3.

Leg 4 : 3.45 Epsom, a 10-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ handicap over 1m4f

Most of this field are stepping up in class, but Miller Spirit drops two classes after finishing 4th of 8 at Goodwood last time around. Parramount was a runner-up on his last start and Haliphon is turned back out just a week after winning on good to soft ground at Haydock. Enochdhu is also of interest here because his yard is in good nick, have a good record here at Epsom and do well with horses turned back out quickly…

and I think that these four would form my shortlist. I suspect Haliphon will go off fairly short after last week's win, so we might need to look elsewhere if we wanted a bit of value with Enochdhu and Parramount the more obvious candidates from that perspective, whilst our pace/draw heat map suggests Haliphon and Parramount are the ones here...

You can make a case for all four, but I definitely want Parramount in my selections based on his last run, his pace/draw heat map and also the place stats on Instant Expert...

...and these also point to Enochdhu running well on the soft ground, so I'll take runners 4 and 6 (Parramont & Enochdhu) here.

Leg 5 : 4.20 Epsom, a 7-runner, Class 6, 3yo handicap also over 1m4f

Dubawi Time has finished 122 in three efforts over today’s trip and he alongside Small Fry (a win and a runner-up finish in his last two) are the form horses here. Dubai Time is actually the only runner in the race to win over this trip and with his yard in such good form, he’s a pick for me here…

I'd be quite happy to take just the one runner from this race, especially as he leads the way on the place pace/draw heatmap...

If you wanted backup picks, both Small Fry and Bittalemon have made the frame in both of their last two outings and both drop in class here and if Bittalemon's first-time blinkers do the trip, he could be the next best to Dubawi Time.

Leg 6 : 4.50 Epsom, a 7-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ handicap over 1m½f

There’s only really Desfondado and New Heights that I’m not keen on here initially.

Local Bay has made the frame in five of his last six, winning four times including last time out, so that’s a major positive, whilst Finn Russell also won his last outing. The fast finishing We’renotreallyhere has finished 213 in his last three outings, but is up in class here today, so that might make life difficult for him, whereas our sole course and distance winner Local Bay actually drops in class.

Finn Russell’s claims are backed up by some decent stats for trainer form, jockey form and trainer/jockey form…

...and I think that those stats above and his LTO win are enough for me to go with Finn Russell along with Local Bay, who I find difficult to overlook here, even of the market seems to disagree.

I'm still having some technical difficulties out here (the Indonesian internet police aren't keen on gambling sites), so still no ABCX perms from me, but to summarise, I've identified the following as runners of interest...

 

Leg 1: horses 2 & 3

Leg 2: horses 3 & 5 (plus possibly 1, 4 & 14 if you're doing the perms)

Leg 3: horses 3 & 8

Leg 4: horses 4 & 6

Leg 5: horse 1 (plus possibly 3)

Leg 6: horses 2 & 6

Fingers crossed!

Chris 

Other Recent Posts by This Author:

• Tix Picks, Thursday 03/10/24
• Tix Picks, Wednesday 02/10/24
• Tix Picks, Tuesday 01/10/24
• Tix Picks, Monday 30/09/24
• Tix Picks, Saturday 28/09/24