Racing Insights, Monday 28/08/23 geegeez.co.uk

Monday’s free feature of the day is the pace tab for all races. This is available to all free registered users of Geegeez and gives huge insight into which runners might be most or least disadvantaged by their early positions in each race.

The free races of the day on Monday are...

2.00 Southwell
2.05 Downpatrick
2.30 Epsom
2.50 Chepstow
3.50 Downpatrick
4.15 Epsom

And of the four UK races above, the highest-rated handicap also has the widest variance in pace profiles, so let's have a quick look at the 4.15 Epsom, a 10-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ flat handicap over a -handed 1m2f on good ground...

None of these managed to win on their last outings, but Zhang Fei, Ribal and Oh So Grand were placed and the latter had won two on the bounce before that run, whilst only God Of Fire and Flight of Angels are the others to have won at least once in their last five efforts.

Zhang Fei, Ribal, Oh So Grand, Light Up Stars and Giovanni Baglione all step up a class here, but Flight of Angels drops down from Class 3 for a race which sees God Of Fire wear a tongue tie for the first time and Ribal wears first-time cheekpieces. Zhang Fei is hooded for his yard debut for John Gallagher.

This will be Oh So Grand's second run in a handicap and he's one of just three (along with Light Up Our Stars and Flight of Angels) to have won at this trip already, with Light Up, Our Stars the sole previous course winner, courtesy of a course and distance success almost 14 months ago.

This field's lack of course/distance success is, of course, shown up in Instant Expert...

...which hardly sets the pulse racing!

Udaberri and Light Up Our Stars look weak in this grade and although a course and distance winner, the latter's record at this trip leaves a bit to be desired. Elsewhere, there's little to help me here, I just hope the place stats are better!

Thankfully, they are! My general rule of thumb with relying on place form is to eliminate any runner that has no green for the going/class/course distance columns, so I'm just going to focus on these runners going forward...

Having discarded runners in stalls 5, 6 & 8, I'm hoping that our draw analyser is going to tell me that a low draw is favoured here...

...and whilst it's not a huge bias, it does seem the lower draws win more often and the PRB3 scores would be against the higher drawn runners...

That said, having the better draw over a trip of 1m2f isn't the be all and end all and much will, of course, depend on how the runners use their starting position and those races above have, according to our pace analyser, tended to suit runners racing prominently stalking the leader(s)...

...which based on their recent efforts would seem to suit Ribal and possibly Zhang Fei if Flight Of Angels and Oh So Grand decide to take it on early...

Of course, Oh So Grand might sit just off the leader like he did last time out, which could well be the best play here and our pace/draw heat map suggests the four runners mentioned are best positioned...

Summary

The four at the top end of that pace/draw heatmap are the ones I want to focus on here and I think it's a 2-way battle between Ribal and Oh So Grand here. Both are in decent form, both get a 7lb weight allowance as three year olds and both are drawn relatively low. Both are priced at around the 3/1 mark and if pushed, I'd take the filly Oh So Grand over Ribal, based on her two recent victories.

As for the placer, the 9/1 Zhang Fei could well be dangerous if tuned up for his yard debut, but the 132-day absence is a bit of a nagging concern, so it might be safer to side with the equally 9/1 priced Flight of Angels who had been in good form over this kind of trip prior to stepping up to 1m4f last time out. She weakened late on that day at Salisbury, but should go well on the front end (Joe Fanning is excellent at reading the pace of a race) back down in trip.

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