Racing Insights

Racing Insights, Saturday 01/06/24

Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

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...and they have generated the following runners for me to check out...

...in addition to our daily list of fully functional 'free' racecards, which for this Saturday cover...

  • 2.00 Epsom
  • 2.20 Worcester
  • 2.25 Listowel
  • 4.45 Musselburgh
  • 6.15 Doncaster
  • 6.28 Stratford

...from which the highlight has to be the nine-runner, Group 3, Princess Elizabeth Stakes for 3yo+ Fillies & Mares, shown on your racecards as the 2.00 Epsom, where they'll go left-handed on good to soft ground over a trip just three yards beyond 1m½f...

Royal Dress and Sea of Thieves both managed to win last time out at Listed class with the former beating the re-opposing Breege (finished third) by just two short heads in a tight contest at Goodwood four weeks ago, whilst Running Lion was a 3.5-length runner-up in the Group 2 Dahlia Stakes a day later at Newmarket. Two of this field are on losing runs with Breege winless in ten since scoring on debut just over two years ago, whilst Julia Augusta has lost seven on the bounce since opening her career with a pair of Class 5 wins over a mile and she's also almost two years without a win.

Julia Augusta was fourth in a Listed race for Roger Varian eight weeks ago and now makes a yard debut for David O'Meara, Sea Of Thieves wears a tongue tie for the first time on her return to UK action. She won a Listed race in France LTO, but is up two classes from her last UK run. Sparks Fly is also up in class after a 3.5 length defeat in a Class 2 handicap at Haydock five weeks ago and the quickest-turned back out (20 days), Chic Columbine is denoted as a fast-finisher. She (along with Glimpsed) gets a 12lb age allowance here as a 3yr old and that effectively makes her best off at the weights, as she's rated just 3lbs lower than Running Lion and Sparks Fly (103 vs 106). The afore mentioned Julia Augusta, however, carries 12lbs more than Chic Columbine despite being rated some 11lbs lower!

Astral Beau was third of six in this race last year and that's the only time any of this field have raced here at Epsom before, but Astral Beau, Julia Augusta, Royal Dress and Sparks Fly have all scored over 1m to 1m1f on the Flat, according to Instant Expert, where Sparks Fly has the best relevant record and Astral Beau the worst...

Admittedly, there's not a great deal of data to work with, but Sparks Fly's 2 from 3 on the going and 6 from 6 at the trip are certainly worth noting, as are Astral Beau's 1 from 7 at Class 1 and her 1 from 9 at the trip sadly. Breege, as we know, hasn't won any of her last ten and most have been Class 1 affairs over similar trips but I wouldn't write her off just yet, as she certainly knows how to make the frame at this level...

...where her Class 1 form line reads 32725423, putting her right into contention for at least a place again today along with Running Lion whose own Class 1 form reads 12382. Chic Columbine has won four of her last five, but they've all been at 6½f/7f, so this is a fairly big step in trip today for her.

Past similar (slightly expanded criteria, of course to get workable data) races show no real draw bias here...

...and there's probably no real pace bias either from those races, even if prominent runners have a much poorer win percentage...

I'm happy to overlook that relatively low 7 from 77 return, because those runners have made the frame as often as the other styles and could have just been a bit unlucky; they're probably only 2 or 3 winners shy of par.

So without a pace and/or draw bias, I'm going to class this as a fair race, where the best horses should prevail all being well and based on form / Instant Expert, I'd lean towards (in card order) Breege, Running Lion, Sparks Fly and Chic Columbine as being the four to choose from.

When we talk about the draw and the pace of a race, it's often useful to look at how they interact, because in those races above there is no obvious bias in either pace or draw, but when combined...



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...we'd ideally have a high drawn runner in mid-division dropping in for a late run or a runner in stalls 1-6 leading the way, which makes the following quite interesting...

Astral Beau was third in this race last year, Sparks Fly was the standout on Instant Expert and Breege is the perennial placer.

Summary

The analysis above led me to believe that the winner and placers would come from Breege, Running Lion, Sparks Fly and Chic Columbine, whilst the pace/draw heat map threw Astral Beau's name into the ring, making the market as of 4.30pm Friday of little/no surprise to anyone...

...other than perhaps a feeling that Running Lion might be a little on the short side after being overturned as a 6/4 fav last time out. On her day, she's probably the pick here, but I'm not sensing a great deal of value at 15/8 so whilst she might very well go on to win, she won't be burdened with the weight of my money!

Sparks Fly is really interesting, of course but not backable for me at 5/1, but if you do want an E/W punt then any (or all) of the next three in the betting could be the way forward. God, I hate agreeing with the bookies!

Have a great weekend, guys (and girls, of course!)...
Chris

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