Racing Insights, Tuesday 10/10/23 geegeez.co.uk

The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

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Here are my qualifiers on Tuesday's Shortlist...

...with all three seeming worth a second glance if nothing else, whilst as ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...

2.12 Leicester
4.10 Punchestown
4.20 Huntingdon
4.32 Leicester
5.30 Huntingdon

And the highest rated of the UK races above is the 4.32 Leicester, an 11-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ flat handicap over a right-handed 1m2f on good to soft ground that will be better in palces...

Top weight Box to Box won last time out and has two wins and two runner-up finishes from his last five outings, whilst Forceful Speed has won three on the bounce and is five from his last eight. Kitsune Power and The City's Phantom are the only ones without a win in their visible formline.

Forceful Speed is up a class here, though, as is fast finishing Fantasy Believer, whilst Beraz, Kitsune Power and James McHenry all drop down a level. Beraz, Chelsea Green, James McHenry and Zirhab have yet to win over today's trip, but the latter has won here over a mile; Kitsune Power is the only other previous course winner, having scored over 7f back in April 2022.

Five of this field (Chelsea Green, Forceful Speed, James McHenry, Intricacy and Ziryab) recieve a 4lb weight allowances as three year olds, whilst the last three of thse five listed are running for the first time since being gelded. That said, Ziryab's 81-day absence is the longest of all eleven runners with six of his opponents having raced in the last four weeks.

Instant Expert says...

...that plenty of these have shown an aptitude/liking for one or more of today's expected conditions without too many alarm belles ringing in my head. On the basis of the above, Box To Box looks well suited, despite a 3lb weight rise and Forceful Speed will certainly get the trip. The place stats from those races above looks like this...

...where again Box To Box looks the one to beat. Intricacy scores well here too, of course. He's drawn right out in stall 11 of 11, but past similar contests suggest that this wouldn't necessarily ruin his chances...

...as it's the lower end of the draw that seems to have come out worst, although that's not totally bad news for Ziryab in stall 1, as the following breakdown shows...

All of which tempts me to say that the draw might well play second fiddle to the pace of the contest in determining who wins here and if we look at those races above, the data says that you don't want to be dawdling early on...

...which would suit up to a half-dozen of these, based on the way they've approached their last four races...

Summary

The obvious starting point for me has to be Box To Box. He's in great form, scored well (the best) on Instant Expert, is drawn high enough not to be classed as a low draw and will set the tempo of the contest. He's currently 8/1 wit Betfair/PP, so that's an E/W bet in my eyes.

Whether he wins or not might well depend on how close Forceful Speed sticks to him. This 3yr old is flying right now, having won his last three and is unpenalised for his last success; a similar run here makes him difficult to beat and the market reflects this with him being the 3/1 fav.

These are the two that interest me the most and I don't see there being too much between them. As for another runner for the frame, I'd probably side with the 5/1 Intricacy. He's in good nick, has the eight allowance and Instant Expert says he's a regular placer. He's too short for an E/W bet in my eyes, but I expect him to be in the mix.

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