Tix Picks, Thursday 05/12/24

Thursday's racing comes from Chelmsford, Leicester, Market Rasen & Wincanton.
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Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows, including a £50,000 placepot guarantee at Chelmsford...

We'll not follow the money onto the A/W scene today and we'll head for Leicester instead where soft/heavy ground is expected for our six races that kick off with...

Leg 1 @ 12.25...Dark Mix won a soft ground bumper on debut at Market Rasen this time last year and wasn't disgraced back at that same track when making a hurdles debut three weeks ago. despite not having raced for ten month, he was in contention until 2 out when he began to fade, eventually coming home 5th of the 12 runners. The third placed runner has since made the frame again, whilst the horse in fourth has won at Southwell. Got A Dream also faded late on in a hurdling debut after a break recently, finishing fourth of eleven some seven months after competing in a Grade 2 bumper at the Liverpool Festival. He's a soft ground bumper winner already and should come on for last month's reappearance.

Je Viens Du Large came within a neck of making the frame last time out, when fourth of twelve here over course and distance in a tougher race than this. He drops down in class here and his yard are in decent nick right now. Lawrenny steps up in class on his seasonal reappearance after a nine month break following his win in a heavy ground bumper at Newcastle back in March which came almost eight weeks after he'd been a runner-up on soft ground at Sedgefield. So I suspect the underfoot conditions will be fine, it's just a case of whether he takes to hurdling.

Sixmilebridge won a Class 2 bumper on debut back in February before tackling the Gr1 Champion Bumper at Cheltenham in March where he was ultimately well beaten. There's no disgrace in that, of course and the market deemed him worth of being the 11/10 fav on his hurdles debut five weeks ago, but the effects of an eight month break saw him headed late on in a 1.25 length defeat. The third placed horse was a further 1.5 lengths back and he went on to win by 12 lengths at Hereford last week.

(7) Sixmilebridge drops in class now and with the benefit of that near miss under his belt, should be the one to beat here with (2) Got A Dream and possibly (1) Dark Mix best poised to challenge.

Leg 2 @ 12.55...Pearl Island improved steadily over hurdles and was third of nine at Ludlow six weeks ago, despite being off track for over five months. This looks a modest race for a chase debut for a yard who have been going well of late and tend to do well with chasers. Jikala only has four races under her belt and won over hurdles at Hereford two starts ago. Sadly that was in March 2023 and she hasn't been seen for 589 days since finishing fourth at Ludlow. I'd be interested here had she had a more recent outing, but I fear she'll need the run. Shesupincourt was third over course and distance less than three weeks ago when the good to firm ground was a little too quick for her. All her best form and her two career wins have been on soft/heavy ground, so conditions here could be ideal for a horse that stays 3m+ in the mud.

Williamdeconqueror has finished 2525332 in his last six over fences and stays 3m2f in the mud as shown at Chepstow on his last run. he hasn't raced since February, but was only beaten by a short head on last year's seasonal reappearance after a break. Everyonesacritic might not strike you as a contender on recent form and his 4th of 7 at Ludlow most recently was a modest effort, but that was 2m on good ground. Elsewhere, he has place form on soft ground and at 3m1½f, so longer and softer than LTO at Ludlow are what he needs and he did win a soft ground handicap hurdle off 2lbs higher at Musselburgh earlier this season.

That said, I don't think Everyonesacritic is as good as the other four and with Jikala probably needing a run, my 1-2 here would be (5) Williamdeconqueror and (4) Shesupincourt with (1) Pearl Island my backup plan.

Leg 3 @ 1.25...I'd expect this to be a two-horse affair between the first two on the card.

Inside Man has two wins and a runner-up finish from five starts over hurdles and turned over a 4/6 fav at Exeter 17 days ago. He does carry a penalty, of course, for that win, but he's race fit and in good form, whereas the lightly raced Carismatic Soldier has just one bumper run to his name and hasn't been seen for nine months.

That said, he went well enough on debut to finish second on soft ground with the nest runner a further seven lengths back in a well strung out field. I'm taking his fitness and jumping on trust, mainly because the others in the race make less appeal, although UK debutant Authodidacte did win two of his last five on the Flat in France.

I'll stick with (1) Inside Man & (2) Carismatic Soldier here though.

Leg 4 @ 1.55...Well, this looks an awful field of ten runners with a collective career record of 7 wins from 111 runs and if we ignore Mr Zee's 6 wins and 5 places from 41 races, his rivals have just one win and three places from seventy between them! That said, three horses have to make the frame and I'm hoping that the least worst of them are...

(2) Trust House is the other winner in the pack, having scored over 1m4f at Ripon four starts ago. has shown little in three over hurdles so far, but drops in class for a yard & trainer in good recent form and with good course records.

(9) Mr Zee is the one with the wins under his belt, admittedly all on the Flat/AW at 1m2f-1m4f, but winning is better than losing in any sphere. he has two wins and a place from five on soft ground, a similar record here at Leicester and was a runner-up over 2m at Kempton earlier in the year.

(7) Nedzor also drops in class for a handicap debut and was third on soft ground on debut at Chepstow this time last year and was fourth on his third/last run at the same track back in January on heavy ground. The mud won't be an issue, but the lay-off might.

Leg 5 @ 2.25...Just five go to post for this one and I'm of the opinion that Mcgrath From Clune and My Portia will both need the run after six months off and that neither of them are as good as the other three and the market will probably back that assertion up, which leaves us with three.

I do, however, think that I'm against the market in terms of how they'll finish, because I expect (1) Davids Well to be very short if last night's tissues are anything to go by. He won convincingly (14 lengths) over hurdles at Plumpton on soft ground in February but was only 8th of 14 at Newbury a month later, beaten by 23 lengths and hasn't raced for 258 days since and that last run plus the lay-off make me think he might be a false favourite on chase debut.

(3) Samazul on the other hand won a soft ground chase over 2m2f at Fontwell in October and can be excused an indifferent effort on quicker ground over a longer trip at the same track four weeks ago, whilst (4) Johnny Mac has three wins from his last six starts, is 2 from 3 here at Leicester, has won on both soft and heavy ground and is 2 from 2 here over course and distance. His record in 2m chases reads 31117 and he's 3lbs lower than his last C&D win from this time last year.

Safety first here from me, though, as I'll take all three despite my reservations about Davids Well. If my tickets are still alive at this point, I'm not getting burnt by a shortie!

Leg 6 @ 3.00...A wide open finale, where the two form horses are Easy To Follow and Shantwopointfive.

(7) Shantwopointfive is still unexposed after one bumper run and two over hurdles and her career form reads 221, getting off the mark over 2m6f at Cartmel last time and she was a heavy ground runner-up on debut. She hasn't raced since that win back in late May, so we'll take her fitness on trust. An opening handicap mark of 107 doesn't seem too onerous and her yard have 16 wins from 53 (30.2%) with LTO winners...

(3) Easy To Follow has only raced five times in total and after a third place on soft ground in her sole bumper, she has finished 1142 over hurdles, all on heavy ground apart from her two length defeat as a runner-up on handicap debut at Bangor five weeks ago. That was on soft ground, though and came after nine months off the track, so she could well come on again, especially with underfoot conditions to suit.

If I'm honest, they're the two to beat here and there's not much jumping out at me from the rest of the card, so I'll just stick with this pair.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (7) Sixmilebridge, (2) Got A Dream & (1) Dark Mix

Leg 2: (5) Williamdeconqueror, (4) Shesupincourt & (1) Pearl Island

Leg 3: (1) Inside Man & (2) Carismatic Soldier

Leg 4: (2) Trust House, (9) Mr Zee & (7) Nedzor

Leg 5: (1) Davids Well, (3) Samazul & (4) Johnny Mac

Leg 6: (7) Shantwopointfive & (3) Easy To Follow

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Other Recent Posts by This Author:

• Tix Picks, Saturday 04/01/25
• Tix Picks, Friday 03/01/25
• Tix Picks, Thursday 02/01/25
• Tix Picks, Tuesday 31/12/24
• Tix Picks, Monday 30/12/24