Tag Archive for: Market Rasen racecourse

Racing Insights, Wednesday 10/04/24

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 3.00 Market Rasen
  • 3.52 Lingfield
  • 4.50 Leopardstown
  • 5.00 Lingfield
  • 5.10 Market Rasen

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have highlighted the following runners...

14-day form...

and 30-day form...

A couple of our in-form trainers go head to head to head in the 3.40 Wolverhampton, whilst both Tom Lacey and Richard Hughes have runners in races from the free list. Dibble Decker's race is rated higher than the one featuring Sandy paradise, so I'm going to look at the 3.00 Market Rasen, a 7-runner, Class 3, 5yo+ handicap chase over 2m 3f 139yds (after a 105yd rail movement) on good to soft / soft ground...

Jet Plane and William Cody both won last time out with the latter also finishing as a runner-up in five of his previous seven outings. Featured horse Dibble Decker was a runner-up on his last run, beaten by just a neck but did win two starts ago. Top-weight War Lord and Dreams of Home are the only ones without a win in their last five and they come here on losing runs of 12 and 10 races respectively.

War Lord will wear blinkers for the first time and does, however, drop down a class here as does The Big Bite, but Dreams of Home actually steps up a level, just like bottom-weight LTO winner William Cody. Gloire d'Athon might well need a run here, having been off the track since a 42-length defeat at Kempton in late November, whilst all his rivals have had a run in the last 25-39 days.

The out of form Dreams of Home is the only one yet to win over a similar trip to this one and Instant Expert's data from the field's previous efforts in this type of race looks like this...

We know War Lord has lost his last twelve and his record on this going and over this type of trip are really poor; his best efforts have been over 1m7½f to 2m½f, so I think today's trip will be beyond him, whilst The Big Bite hasn't won on anything softer than good since November 2020 and at the age of 11 he's not going to get any better. William Cody's chase win have been at Class 4 before today, but as the place stats show, he he hasn't been out of his depth in this grade despite being 0 from 3...

...and the perennial runner-up looks a good bet for a place if nothing else! On the evidence of that second graphic, you'd not want to be getting involved with War Lord, The Big Bite or Dreams of Home and if William Cody does what he normally does and finds one (or two!) too good for him, then is our winner going to come from Gloire D'Athon (who was poor LTO and hasn't raced for 19 weeks), featured horse Dibble Decker or LTO winner Jet Plane?

At this point, I'd normally ask the pace stats to help me out, but the data from past similar contests is inconclusive...

I know that it looks like leaders are the ones to be with, but the fact that prominent runners aren't as successful mid-division runners suggests that the data might not be rock solid for this type of race and that feeling is compounded when I look at the field's last four runs...

...where very few of them seem to have a consistent running style. Of the three that I mention as potential winners, Gloire D'Athon & Dibble Decker look like prominent runners and Jet Plane looks like a hold-up horse with neither of those style being favourable here. Jet Plane did set the pace two starts ago, of course and War Lord did so three races back, but this looks like a falsely run contest will be on the cards.

Summary

When I see a race that I think will be falsely run, I tend to revert to recent overall form and historical relevant form (ie Instant Expert) and all things considered, this brings me to Dibble Decker. He's in good nick, the yard are going well and he has raced to varying tactics in his recent races. He's the current (4.25pm) 3/1 favourite for the race with Hills, but I had him at 11/4 anyway, so that's a fair price.

I suspect that William Cody will be the 'bridesmaid' once again and may have to fend Jet Plane off to do so, but rather boringly I have to agree with the bookies 1-2-3 on this occasion.



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Racing Insights, Tuesday 06/02/24

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Tuesday's free offering from the GOLD service is the The Shortlist feature, a simple – and usually brief – report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day. It covers win or place stats, and can be viewed for both today’s and tomorrow’s racing.

GREENis good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBERis quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
REDis not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation is – and has always been – that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form - and its odds - imply. As ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information!

And this how The Shortlist looks for this Tuesday...

...where the first three would be of the most obvious interest and we do still also have our daily list of 'free' racecards, which are as follows...

  • 3.20 Taunton
  • 4.20 Taunton
  • 4.35 Market Rasen

The race featuring numbers 2 & 4 on The Shortlist looks a better contest than the one featuring nos 1& 3, so we'll head to Lincolnshire for the 3.35 Market Rasen, a 9-runner, Class 4, 5yo+ handicap chase over what is effectively a right-handed 3m½f after a 132 yards rail adjustment. The ground is expected to be good to soft and here's how they're due to line up...

All nine set to go to post have raced in the last 22 to 48 days, so there shouldn't be any fitness issues here. Easy Bucks, Scene One and bottom-weight Mixed wave all won last time out and this trio are two from four, three from four and two from three respectively.

Of their rivals, only Concetto has won in the last seven outings and that was seven races ago, whilst Jimmy The Digger, Geryville and Song of Earth are winless in 7, 9 and 7 respectively.

Jimmy The Digger and Geryville do both drop in class here, though, as does Concetto, but bottom-weight LTO winner Mixedwave is up a level for a race that sees Jar du Desert make just a second handicap appearance and Easy Bucks makes a second yard debut for Peter Bowen after 1 run/win in Ireland for John Joseph Hanlon. Scene One and Concetto both wear cheekpieces for the second time after quite differing results in them last time out.

Geryville, Easy Bucks and Concetto have already won over a similar trip to this one, whilst Scene One won here over 2m3½f last time out. Only Mixedwave has won over course and distance, though with two wins and a runner-up finish from three efforts at 3m½f/3m1f and it's Scene One and Easy Bucks who initially catch the eye on Instant Expert...

...although Geryville and Mixedwave have really good place stats...

This type of race has, despite the distance, suited those runners keen to get on with things with prominent runners/leaders providing 55% of the winners and 53.8% of the placers from just 47.1% of the runners...

...which based on the field's last four efforts, puts our three LTO winners, Easy Bucks, Scene One and Mixedwave in the hotseat...

Summary

We have three LTO winners in Easy Bucks, Scene One and Mixedwave and they're the three most likely to get on with it over a course and distance that rewards those setting the tempo. All three are in great form, all three scored well on Instant Expert and two of them appear on The Shortlist. And they're the three to pick from for me.

It's a tight-looking contest, mind and you/the market can make a case for quite a few of these, based on the 6.20pm odds...

...and of my three, I prefer Scene One to beat Mixedwave with Easy Bucks not far out of it.



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Racing Insights, Saturday 30/09/23

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following runners for me to look at...

1-year form...

5-year course form...

One of those races is a 34-runner affair and the other a Class 6 Nursery, so I'm grateful that as always, we have a list of fully functional 'free' racecards each day, which for Saturday cover...

  • 2.25 Newmarket
  • 4.00 Gowran Park
  • 4.30 Market Rasen
  • 4.45 Killarney
  • 5.15 Ripon
  • 5.40 Market Rasen

The first of those six races is clearly the 'best' on paper, as it's a Group 1 race worth over £150k to the winner, but I'm not big into 2yr old races, so we're going jumping in Lincolnshire as we look at the 4.30 Market Rasen, an 11-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ handicap hurdle over a right-handed 2m½f on good ground...

Princess T and Coolnaugh Haze both won last time out, but the latter's stablemate Enthused is the form horse coming here seeking a hat-trick and has seven top 3 finishes (inc 3 wins) in a row. Addosh and Stonific are the only two without a win in their race-card form line after nine and eleven consecutive defeats respectively.

Their chances of ending their losing runs aren't helped by them both stepping up two classes here, as do Chance A Tune (who hasn't raced for over two years!) and Coolnaugh Haze. The veteran of the race, the 12yo Mcgroarty, however, drops down in class after finishing eighth in a Listed event at Auteuil.

Chance a Tune is the only one yet to win over a similar trip, whilst Mcgroarty, Addosh and Stonific have actually won over course and distance; none of the others have won here before, though. As mentioned above, it's more than two years since Chance A Tune was last seen and although his record in 2021 read 1432, I suspect he might well need the run here. The others have no such worries and have all raced in the past 11-42 days.

Relevant past results can be seen via Instant Expert...

...where Castel Gandolfo looks weak on going, class and trip whilst remaining 5lbs above his last winning mark. Glorious Zoff is 9lbs higher than his last win and his record on good ground and over this trip also look suspect. Old-hand Mcgroarty looks like he'll enjoy the conditions, but he also hasn't raced in the UK for almost two years, having raced a dozen times in France instead, winning twice in July.

As for place form in those races above, that looks like this...

...where top and bottom weighted horses look most vulnerable and Castel Gandolfo's numbers are very good, considering how few of those races he has actually won. Coolnaugh Haze has no Class 2 form, but was a consistent placer at Class 3.

Bearing Chance A Tune's lengthy absence in mind, the pace scores might not quite be accurate here, but if he runs the same way as he used to, then I suspect he's going to be the one setting the pace here with a whole bunch of horses stalking him ready to pounce as he tires. I'd also expect the likes of Addosh, Stonific and Glorious Zoff to be held up for a late run, based on the evidence of their last four outings...

It is entirely possible, of course that Liverpool Knight (pace scores of 414 in his last three) won't let Chance A Tune dominate and going with him early would appear to be the best tactic, based on how over 100 past similar races have panned out...

Summary

Chance A Tune is likely to fade (IMO) and I think the pace will do for the chances of Addosh, Stonific and Glorious Zoff and the first two of that trio are in dreadful form anyway. Of the remaining seven, none really jump out and scream 'back me!', but based on the evidence above, I'm drawn to LTO winner Coolnaugh Haze and he's currently a 5/1 shot with Hills.

Elsewhere I think that perpetual 'places often, but doesn't win enough' Castel Gandolfo will do the same again ie be close but not close enough and he's 13/2 if that's long enough for you to go E/W, whilst the in-form and current fav Enthused is sure to be in the mix.

If I wanted to take a punt on one that might outrun his odds, then the 18/1 Mcgroarty might do the trick for E/W bettors, especially if you can get four places.

Good luck and have a great weekend!
Chris

PS a heads up...I'm off to Greece on Saturday morning and won't be home until Wednesday 18th October. I will, of course, endeavour to write this column every day, ship/resort wi-fi permitting, but the timing of my posts might vary. There won't be a preview for Monday 2nd, Monday 9th nor Wednesday 18th, but I'll do my best for the remainder!



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Racing Insights, Friday 09/06/23

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Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the report...

...have yielded just one qualifier for this Friday...

...but thankfully I can also fall back upon our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 2.50 Market Rasen
  • 3.10 Thirsk
  • 4.55 Bath
  • 6.15 Clonmel
  • 7.35 Goodwood
  • 8.10 Goodwood

...and the first of those 'free' races looks the best standard on paper, so we're off to Lincolnshire for the 2.50 Market Rasen, an 11-runner, Class 2, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a right-handed 2m5½f (after a +216 yard rail adjustment!) on good ground...

As ever, I'll approach this in the same way I taught my children to solve maths problems : list the details you already know! And for us that means taking the data presented to us on the racecard, starting with FORM...

...where King Alexander comes here seeking a hat-trick, whilst Mullinaree completed that feat last time out and now seeks a fourth win on the bounce. Elsewhere Hang In There has 5 wins and two runner-up finishes from his last nine runs and only three (Luttrell Lad, Celestial Horizon and Didtheyleaveuoutto) are on long losing runs, having lost their last 11, 7 and 16 races respectively!

The next thing I consider is CLASS and only four of these (Hang In There, Earlofthecotswolds, Impulsive One & Luttrell Lad) raced at this Class 2 level LTO witht he first named a runner-up at Aintree in a better race than this. Of the other seven, only The Wounded Knee drops in class, after being pulled up in a Grade 2 Novice hurdle at Kelso three months ago, whilst Celestial Horizon, Didtheyleaveuoutto and Sacre Coeur all step up from Class 3 and with Celestial Horizon and Didtheyleaveuoutto both being on lengthy losing runs, it's tough to see the step up in class helping them here. Mind you, it could be worse, because King Alexander, Mullinaree and Runswick Bay are all up two classes, but at least that first pair are in good form.

At this point, I then like to check if there's ANYTHING NEW going on with the runners that might affect their performance and there's a fair bit here, as Impulsive One, The Wounded Knee and Sacre Coeur are all making debuts for their new yards and it'll be just the second handicap outing for The Wounded Knee, as it will be for King Alexander, who is 2 from 2 since a wind op, a fact that will hearten connections of Sacre Coeur and Runswick bay as those horses now run for the first time since their own surgeries. Slightly less invasive for Luttrell Lad, though, as he just has a first-time tongue tie in place.

COURSE/DISTANCE form is very important too and Hang In There, Earlofthecotswolds and Luttrell Lad have all won won here before (in a 2m6½f chase, 2m5f hurdle and a 2m1f bumper respectively), whilst Hang In There, Earlofthecotswolds, Impulsive One, King Alexander and Runswick Bay have all won over a similar trip to this one.

And the last thing I tend to look at on the racecard is the number of DAYS SINCE LAST RUN, as we don't really want rusty horses coming off long layoffs or those turned back out too quickly and we thankfully have neither here. Sacre Coeur and The Wounded Knee have been rested for 99 and 97 days respectively, but that's not excessive, whilst all their rival have had at least a couple of weeks' rest to freshen up.

I would then turn to the excellent INSTANT EXPERT feature for some some more data and as you'll see below, some of these have got some decent NH numbers behind them and Sacre Coeur is the only one yet to win on good ground (her only win was on soft ground three starts ago). Five of this field have already won a Class 2 contest (six have actually won at Class 1!) and only Celestial Horizon has yet to score over a trip of 2m4f to 2m6f...

...and the traffic light system used above should be pretty self-explanatory, but the rating column might not. Essentially T =  today's official rating ie a horse's mark and L is the runner's last winning mark and the standout figure is that 21lb difference for The Wounded Knee, who won a Class 4 handicap hurdle at Perth off a mark of 108 nine months ago, but is now rated at 129, which looks punitive to me. Didtheyleaveuoutto may have won twice at this grade, but a 20% strike rate isn't good and allied to his recent poor form and a 1in 7 record at similar trips, you'd be brave to back him here.

Based on everything I've put down so far, these are now the runners that I'd want to choose from...

...and I'd then focus on handicap hurdle form...

...and eliminate Runswick Bay from my list. The in-form pair of King Alexander and Mullinaree are untried at class/trip, as both step up in grade here and whilst they're definite contenders here, it's the top pair on the card catching the eye from Instant Expert. From here, we normally then look at the draw, the pace stats and how they work together, but there is no draw in an NH contest, of course, so let's head directly to the PACE data we hold under in our Pace Analyser tool...

...which says that similar races here in the past have been most beneficial to front-runners and that blindly backing known front-runners could turn a profit. Known hold-up types are generally to be avoided here and based off recent outings this wouldn't seem to apply to my 'final five'...

Summary

King Alexander, Mullinaree and Hang In There bring the best form to the table, but the first pair are both up two grades, whilst the latter has scored at both track and trip, albeit on different days! Hang In There also caught the eye on Instant Expert, along with Earlofthecotswolds and it is this pair who seem best suited by the pace profile required here. All of which suggests that Impulsive One is the most vulnerable of my five and that I prefer Hang In There and Earlofthecotswolds over the LTO winners King Alexander and Mullinaree.

Hang In There makes more appeal to me as the winner here based on recent form and the 6/1 offered by Hills at 4.45pm looks a bit big, so I'd take that. Earlofthecotswolds is 15/2, which is probably about right and is borderline E/W territory for me, but he has a great chance of making the frame and if I had to choose between King Alexander and Mullinaree, I'd probably side with the former, King Alexander, who is the early 11/4 fav. His win LTO was more impressive than Mullinaree's and the latter is now worse off at the weights. I'm leaving him out of my 1-2-3, but I reckon he won't be far away.

 



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Racing Insights, Tuesday 21/03/23

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Tuesday's free offering from the GOLD service is the The Shortlist feature, a simple – and usually brief – report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day. It covers win or place stats, and can be viewed for both today’s and tomorrow’s racing.

GREENis good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBERis quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
REDis not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation is – and has always been – that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form - and its odds - imply. As ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information!

And this how The Shortlist looks for this Tuesday...

We do still also have our daily list of 'free' racecards, which are as follows...

  • 2.15 Wetherby
  • 3.50 Market Rasen
  • 4.25 Market Rasen
  • 4.50 Clonmel

Small fields everywhere in the UK and not much of note to discuss, but I'm going take a quick look at the 4.25 Market Rasen, as it seems the 'best' of the free races to look at. It's a Class 4, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a right-handed 2m7f on soft ground and these are the five runners set to go to post...

MADE FOR YOU has finished 51122 in five starts here and was a winner at Musselburgh three races ago, scoring by 8 lengths in early December. Hasn't been anywhere near that level in two runs since (PU and 5th of 6) and will need to improve to be involved here, you'd think.

THE KNIPHAND looked a better horse when stepped up to 3m+ last December, winning back to back handicaps at Doncaster seven weeks apart. Things didn't go to plan last time out at Chepstow, but he was up two classes and should stand a better chance here now back down in grade.

BOLD SOLDIER makes a handicap debut here after being the runner-up in three of four efforts over hurdles so far and was beaten by less than two lengths over 3m on soft/heavy ground at Uttoxeter last time out. He was headed with half a furlong to go and the slightly shorter trip and slightly better ground here could help him land a first win in a first time tongue tie, as might the booking of a 7lb claimer who has finished 1271 in his last four.

STORM DENNIS won back to back 2m5f contests in Jan/Feb of last year before a seven month break. He was then last of five, beaten by twenty lengths on chase debut before reverting to hurdles on Boxing Day in a 10 length defeat when 6th of 15 over 2m5f at Kempton. Unproven at the trip and might need the run, but off a workable mark, the same as his last win.

RIPPER ROO had a good 20/21 season, finishing as a runner-up on his sole bumper outing before a run of form reading 2331 over hurdles, culminating in a win here over 2m5f. Then off track for the thick end of 20 months, he hasn't looked the same in three efforts over fences, beaten by 31 and 43 lengths before being puled up last time out. Might do better back over hurdles, but hard to be confident about his chances.

Not much soft ground form to write home about, but The Kniphand and Made For You both have multiple wins at this level and Made For You really likes it here at Market Rasen, but has struggled with the trip, unlike The Kniphand, but he's now 6lbs higher than his last win, whilst from a place perspective, it's Storm Dennis who looks the weakest...

With these small fields on tricky ground, you often get a falsely run race, but if this field run how they have in their most recent outings, then I'd expect the first part of the race to see them in this kind of order...

...although Storm Dennis might well be the one to lead out and I'm unsure about Ripper Roo. Made For You looks like one who'll be waited with, though. The pace might not actually be as important here as it is on other days, as it looks like this kind of race can be won from anywhere...

...the mid-div numbers are obviously skewed in a such a small sample size, but my take here is that if pace is no real advantage, then the horse best suited to conditions 'should' be the one to back.

Summary

The pair I think I'd want to be with in a race like this are the two I highlighted from Instant Expert, Made For You and The Kniphand. Neither tick all the boxes, as explained earlier, but there's a big discrepancy in price. Made For You has the ability to win this race, but is out of form, so the cheekpieces are going back and at 9/1, he's the outsider of the five, but might be worth a small (and I mean small) E/W bet here.

Otherwise, I have no play in the game.



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Racing Insights, Tuesday 21/02/23

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Tuesday's free offering from the GOLD service is the The Shortlist feature, a simple – and usually brief – report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day. It covers win or place stats, and can be viewed for both today’s and tomorrow’s racing.

GREENis good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBERis quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
REDis not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation is – and has always been – that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form - and its odds - imply. As ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information!

And this how TS looks this  for this Tuesday...

We do still also have our daily list of 'free' racecards, which are as follows...

  • 2.15 Market Rasen
  • 4.15 Market Rasen
  • 6.00 Southwell

The first four races on TS are of obvious interest and from those and the trio of 'free' races, I've decided to focus on the 2.15 Market Rasen, which on paper is the highest rated of the seven, despite only being an 8-runner, Class 4, handicap hurdle for 4yo+ mares over a right-handed 2m4½f on good ground, that is softer in places...

My initial thoughts were that this would be pretty competitive with any of five in with a decent shout, but that I wasn't over keen on the top two in the weights (Bon Retour & Could Be trouble) or bottom weight Ravenscar, but I'm not ruling anything out so soon!

Notnowlinda and Windtothelightningboth won last time out, but all bar Could Be Trouble have won at least one of their last three (CBT won seven starts ago). Top weight Bon Retour is the only class mover dropping down a level after a 17 length defeat earlier in the month.

Four of the field (Presenting A Queen, Notnowlinda, Let's Go To Vegas & Windtothelightning) make a handicap debut here in a contest where only Presenting A Queen, Notnowlinda and Ravenscar have yet to win over a similar trip. Our sole course winner, Let's Go To Vegas scored over 2m5½f on debut in November prior to a runner-up finish next/last time out and all of this field have been seen in the last eight weeks.

Instant Expert shows us the field's performances under similar conditions and it loos promising, albeit off fairly small sample sizes in some cases (two of these have only five races under their belts and two are making just their third starts)...

And those two graphics would lend more confidence to my initial feeling about this being a five-horse race. Of these five, past efforts suggest that Presenting A Queen is the likely pace-maker with Phillapa Sue the hold-up type...

...although Notnowlinda might want to get involved early too. The Pace Analysis of past similar contests suggests that Phillapa Sue is likely to struggle from the back of the field...

...and if we eliminate her from our calculations, we're left with just four of our original eight runners.

Summary

Having halved the field, let's take a quick look at each of the remaining quartet, who are all on handicap debut...

PRESENTING A QUEEN was a winner in each of her first three starts (2 x NHF and a 2m4f hurdle), but has been beaten by 16 and 10 lengths in two efforts since, albeit at 2m7½f and 2m5f. She's down in trip here, which might help, but she carries most weight of the four.

NOTNOWLINDA actually won a three mile Irish PTP before tackling a pair of bumpers, where she was third twice last winter. Since then she has won two of three over hurdles, but both wins were over 2m and her attempt at 2m4f saw her beaten by 24 lengths, but that was at Class 2.

LETS GO TO VEGAS raced in two Irish PTP races last March, falling on debut but finishing second three weeks later prior to an eight month break and a win on her hurdling debut here over course and distance. She ran to a similar standard next/last time out, but was a runner-up at Huntingdon behind an impressive 8/15 favourite from the Skelton yard.

WINDTOTHELIGHTNING also comers here after a PTP runner-up finish and two hurdles runs where she has finished 3rd of 7, beaten by little more than 2 lengths on debut and then an impressive 12 length success at Sedgefield over 2m4f three weeks ago where she stayed on well to go clear late on despite a couple of mistakes. A similar effort and a clear round here puts her in the driving seat.

That's my four in racecard order and I think I've got keener about each one the further down the list I've gone and I've got Windtothelightning edging out Let's Go To Vegas with Notnowlinda battling with Presenting A Queen for the bronze medal. In racecard order, this quartet are best-priced at 6/1, 7/1, 7/2 & 5/2 and I'm not really surprised that Windtothelightning is favourite here. If she stays out of trouble and jumps cleanly she should win. Elsewhere, if either of the two 'outsiders' get much bigger than 7's then they might make for a nice E/W option.



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