Racing Insights, Tuesday 21/03/23 geegeez.co.uk

Tuesday's free offering from the GOLD service is the The Shortlist feature, a simple – and usually brief – report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day. It covers win or place stats, and can be viewed for both today’s and tomorrow’s racing.

GREENis good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBERis quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
REDis not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation is – and has always been – that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form - and its odds - imply. As ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information!

And this how The Shortlist looks for this Tuesday...

We do still also have our daily list of 'free' racecards, which are as follows...

2.15 Wetherby
3.50 Market Rasen
4.25 Market Rasen
4.50 Clonmel

Small fields everywhere in the UK and not much of note to discuss, but I'm going take a quick look at the 4.25 Market Rasen, as it seems the 'best' of the free races to look at. It's a Class 4, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a right-handed 2m7f on soft ground and these are the five runners set to go to post...

MADE FOR YOU has finished 51122 in five starts here and was a winner at Musselburgh three races ago, scoring by 8 lengths in early December. Hasn't been anywhere near that level in two runs since (PU and 5th of 6) and will need to improve to be involved here, you'd think.

THE KNIPHAND looked a better horse when stepped up to 3m+ last December, winning back to back handicaps at Doncaster seven weeks apart. Things didn't go to plan last time out at Chepstow, but he was up two classes and should stand a better chance here now back down in grade.

BOLD SOLDIER makes a handicap debut here after being the runner-up in three of four efforts over hurdles so far and was beaten by less than two lengths over 3m on soft/heavy ground at Uttoxeter last time out. He was headed with half a furlong to go and the slightly shorter trip and slightly better ground here could help him land a first win in a first time tongue tie, as might the booking of a 7lb claimer who has finished 1271 in his last four.

STORM DENNIS won back to back 2m5f contests in Jan/Feb of last year before a seven month break. He was then last of five, beaten by twenty lengths on chase debut before reverting to hurdles on Boxing Day in a 10 length defeat when 6th of 15 over 2m5f at Kempton. Unproven at the trip and might need the run, but off a workable mark, the same as his last win.

RIPPER ROO had a good 20/21 season, finishing as a runner-up on his sole bumper outing before a run of form reading 2331 over hurdles, culminating in a win here over 2m5f. Then off track for the thick end of 20 months, he hasn't looked the same in three efforts over fences, beaten by 31 and 43 lengths before being puled up last time out. Might do better back over hurdles, but hard to be confident about his chances.

Not much soft ground form to write home about, but The Kniphand and Made For You both have multiple wins at this level and Made For You really likes it here at Market Rasen, but has struggled with the trip, unlike The Kniphand, but he's now 6lbs higher than his last win, whilst from a place perspective, it's Storm Dennis who looks the weakest...

With these small fields on tricky ground, you often get a falsely run race, but if this field run how they have in their most recent outings, then I'd expect the first part of the race to see them in this kind of order...

...although Storm Dennis might well be the one to lead out and I'm unsure about Ripper Roo. Made For You looks like one who'll be waited with, though. The pace might not actually be as important here as it is on other days, as it looks like this kind of race can be won from anywhere...

...the mid-div numbers are obviously skewed in a such a small sample size, but my take here is that if pace is no real advantage, then the horse best suited to conditions 'should' be the one to back.

Summary

The pair I think I'd want to be with in a race like this are the two I highlighted from Instant Expert, Made For You and The Kniphand. Neither tick all the boxes, as explained earlier, but there's a big discrepancy in price. Made For You has the ability to win this race, but is out of form, so the cheekpieces are going back and at 9/1, he's the outsider of the five, but might be worth a small (and I mean small) E/W bet here.

Otherwise, I have no play in the game.

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