Racing Insights

Racing Insights, Saturday 30/09/23

Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

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...and they have generated the following runners for me to look at...

1-year form...

5-year course form...

One of those races is a 34-runner affair and the other a Class 6 Nursery, so I'm grateful that as always, we have a list of fully functional 'free' racecards each day, which for Saturday cover...

  • 2.25 Newmarket
  • 4.00 Gowran Park
  • 4.30 Market Rasen
  • 4.45 Killarney
  • 5.15 Ripon
  • 5.40 Market Rasen

The first of those six races is clearly the 'best' on paper, as it's a Group 1 race worth over £150k to the winner, but I'm not big into 2yr old races, so we're going jumping in Lincolnshire as we look at the 4.30 Market Rasen, an 11-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ handicap hurdle over a right-handed 2m½f on good ground...

Princess T and Coolnaugh Haze both won last time out, but the latter's stablemate Enthused is the form horse coming here seeking a hat-trick and has seven top 3 finishes (inc 3 wins) in a row. Addosh and Stonific are the only two without a win in their race-card form line after nine and eleven consecutive defeats respectively.

Their chances of ending their losing runs aren't helped by them both stepping up two classes here, as do Chance A Tune (who hasn't raced for over two years!) and Coolnaugh Haze. The veteran of the race, the 12yo Mcgroarty, however, drops down in class after finishing eighth in a Listed event at Auteuil.

Chance a Tune is the only one yet to win over a similar trip, whilst Mcgroarty, Addosh and Stonific have actually won over course and distance; none of the others have won here before, though. As mentioned above, it's more than two years since Chance A Tune was last seen and although his record in 2021 read 1432, I suspect he might well need the run here. The others have no such worries and have all raced in the past 11-42 days.

Relevant past results can be seen via Instant Expert...

...where Castel Gandolfo looks weak on going, class and trip whilst remaining 5lbs above his last winning mark. Glorious Zoff is 9lbs higher than his last win and his record on good ground and over this trip also look suspect. Old-hand Mcgroarty looks like he'll enjoy the conditions, but he also hasn't raced in the UK for almost two years, having raced a dozen times in France instead, winning twice in July.

As for place form in those races above, that looks like this...

...where top and bottom weighted horses look most vulnerable and Castel Gandolfo's numbers are very good, considering how few of those races he has actually won. Coolnaugh Haze has no Class 2 form, but was a consistent placer at Class 3.

Bearing Chance A Tune's lengthy absence in mind, the pace scores might not quite be accurate here, but if he runs the same way as he used to, then I suspect he's going to be the one setting the pace here with a whole bunch of horses stalking him ready to pounce as he tires. I'd also expect the likes of Addosh, Stonific and Glorious Zoff to be held up for a late run, based on the evidence of their last four outings...

It is entirely possible, of course that Liverpool Knight (pace scores of 414 in his last three) won't let Chance A Tune dominate and going with him early would appear to be the best tactic, based on how over 100 past similar races have panned out...

Summary

Chance A Tune is likely to fade (IMO) and I think the pace will do for the chances of Addosh, Stonific and Glorious Zoff and the first two of that trio are in dreadful form anyway. Of the remaining seven, none really jump out and scream 'back me!', but based on the evidence above, I'm drawn to LTO winner Coolnaugh Haze and he's currently a 5/1 shot with Hills.

Elsewhere I think that perpetual 'places often, but doesn't win enough' Castel Gandolfo will do the same again ie be close but not close enough and he's 13/2 if that's long enough for you to go E/W, whilst the in-form and current fav Enthused is sure to be in the mix.

If I wanted to take a punt on one that might outrun his odds, then the 18/1 Mcgroarty might do the trick for E/W bettors, especially if you can get four places.

Good luck and have a great weekend!
Chris

PS a heads up...I'm off to Greece on Saturday morning and won't be home until Wednesday 18th October. I will, of course, endeavour to write this column every day, ship/resort wi-fi permitting, but the timing of my posts might vary. There won't be a preview for Monday 2nd, Monday 9th nor Wednesday 18th, but I'll do my best for the remainder!

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