Racing Insights

Racing Insights, Wednesday 10/04/24

Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

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  • 3.00 Market Rasen
  • 3.52 Lingfield
  • 4.50 Leopardstown
  • 5.00 Lingfield
  • 5.10 Market Rasen

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have highlighted the following runners...

14-day form...

and 30-day form...

A couple of our in-form trainers go head to head to head in the 3.40 Wolverhampton, whilst both Tom Lacey and Richard Hughes have runners in races from the free list. Dibble Decker's race is rated higher than the one featuring Sandy paradise, so I'm going to look at the 3.00 Market Rasen, a 7-runner, Class 3, 5yo+ handicap chase over 2m 3f 139yds (after a 105yd rail movement) on good to soft / soft ground...

Jet Plane and William Cody both won last time out with the latter also finishing as a runner-up in five of his previous seven outings. Featured horse Dibble Decker was a runner-up on his last run, beaten by just a neck but did win two starts ago. Top-weight War Lord and Dreams of Home are the only ones without a win in their last five and they come here on losing runs of 12 and 10 races respectively.

War Lord will wear blinkers for the first time and does, however, drop down a class here as does The Big Bite, but Dreams of Home actually steps up a level, just like bottom-weight LTO winner William Cody. Gloire d'Athon might well need a run here, having been off the track since a 42-length defeat at Kempton in late November, whilst all his rivals have had a run in the last 25-39 days.

The out of form Dreams of Home is the only one yet to win over a similar trip to this one and Instant Expert's data from the field's previous efforts in this type of race looks like this...

We know War Lord has lost his last twelve and his record on this going and over this type of trip are really poor; his best efforts have been over 1m7½f to 2m½f, so I think today's trip will be beyond him, whilst The Big Bite hasn't won on anything softer than good since November 2020 and at the age of 11 he's not going to get any better. William Cody's chase win have been at Class 4 before today, but as the place stats show, he he hasn't been out of his depth in this grade despite being 0 from 3...

...and the perennial runner-up looks a good bet for a place if nothing else! On the evidence of that second graphic, you'd not want to be getting involved with War Lord, The Big Bite or Dreams of Home and if William Cody does what he normally does and finds one (or two!) too good for him, then is our winner going to come from Gloire D'Athon (who was poor LTO and hasn't raced for 19 weeks), featured horse Dibble Decker or LTO winner Jet Plane?

At this point, I'd normally ask the pace stats to help me out, but the data from past similar contests is inconclusive...



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I know that it looks like leaders are the ones to be with, but the fact that prominent runners aren't as successful mid-division runners suggests that the data might not be rock solid for this type of race and that feeling is compounded when I look at the field's last four runs...

...where very few of them seem to have a consistent running style. Of the three that I mention as potential winners, Gloire D'Athon & Dibble Decker look like prominent runners and Jet Plane looks like a hold-up horse with neither of those style being favourable here. Jet Plane did set the pace two starts ago, of course and War Lord did so three races back, but this looks like a falsely run contest will be on the cards.

Summary

When I see a race that I think will be falsely run, I tend to revert to recent overall form and historical relevant form (ie Instant Expert) and all things considered, this brings me to Dibble Decker. He's in good nick, the yard are going well and he has raced to varying tactics in his recent races. He's the current (4.25pm) 3/1 favourite for the race with Hills, but I had him at 11/4 anyway, so that's a fair price.

I suspect that William Cody will be the 'bridesmaid' once again and may have to fend Jet Plane off to do so, but rather boringly I have to agree with the bookies 1-2-3 on this occasion.

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