Posts

Stat of the Day, 28th February 2018

Tuesday's Result :

3.00 Lingfield : Emenem @ 11/4 BOG 2nd at 15/8 Led briefly, chased leader, pushed along over 2f out, ridden over 1f out, led final 110 yards, headed and no extra final 50 yards and beaten by 0.75 lengths...

Next up is Wednesday's...

6.15 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Tommy G @ 11/4 BOG

A Class 5, 5f handicap (4yo+) on tapeta worth £4,011 to the winner...

Why?

Trainer Jim Goldie appears to have got his string of horses finely tuned of late and in in A/W handicaps over the last 60 days, 14 of his 26 runners (53.9%) have made the frame with 8 of them (30.8% SR) going on to win, rewarding followers with 15pts profit at a healthy ROI of some 57.9%, yet over the last 4 weeks those figures are even better, with 5 placers from 11 (45.5%) including 4 winners (36.4% SR) that have been worth 8.77pts (+79.7% ROI) profit to a 1pt level stake.

More specifically, he's had a very good winter on the Tapeta here at Newcastle, a feat not many of his rivals can claim! In the past 15 weeks in handicaps here at Gosforth Park, his charges are 14 from 42 (33.33% SR) for profits of 46pts at a very attractive ROI of 109.5% and these include (of relevance today, of course)...

  • at odds of 12/1 and shorter 14/34 (41.2%) for 54pts (+158.8%)
  • males are 10/27 (37%) for 27.8pts (+102.9%)
  • ridden by Phil Dennis : 8/25 (32%) for 26.7pts (+106.8%)
  • over 5f : 5/12 (41.7%) for 8.8pts (+73.5%)
  • at class 5 : 5/11 (45.5%) for 11.9pts (+107.8%)
  • and 5 yr olds are 4/10 (40%) for 32.36pts (+323.6%)

A look at the pace and draw data on the Geegeez racecard for this race, suggests a prominent racing style suits runners over this course and distance, whilst in fields the size of today's contest, a higher draw is beneficial. According to that data, we've got stall 8 of 8 and based on past running styles of all the competitors in this contest, we're expecting him to sit in around 3rd or 4th position, so we're high and prominent!

If I had the skills of Steve, who does an excellent job illustrating his Race of the Day feature (which has already had a 12/1 winner this week!), I'd show you the graphics, but trust me they're there!

...which all points to...a 1pt win bet on Tommy G @ 11/4 BOG which was available in half a dozen places at 5.30pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 6.15 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 2nd January 2018

New Year's Day's Result :

2.35 Cheltenham : Arthurs Gift @ 7/2 BOG 4th at 7/2 Prominent, led 3 out, headed next, one pace and beaten before last, lost 3rd on flat.

Next up is Tuesday's...

6.10 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Shamshon @ 3/1 BOG

A Class 4, 4yo+ A/W Handicap over 5f on Tapeta worth £6,081 to the winner...

Why?

At first glance, this 7yr old gelding's modest 5/31 record and a lack of a recent win might put you off, but he does drop two classes to Class 4 today to run off a mark 2lbs lower than his last winning rating, whilst of his 31 runs to date, he's actually 4/13 (30.8% SR) for 16.1pts (+123.6% ROI) over a straight 5f, including 2 wins at Class 2 and one at Class 3.

His trainer Stuart Williams is 2/3 since Christmas (2/2 Tapeta) and is one of those rare number of trainers who are profitable to follow blindly in A/W handicaps, as since 2009 his runners are 164/962 (17.1% SR) for 40pts (+4.2% ROI) in such contests. Now, 4.2% isn't exactly earth-shattering or life changing, but is a decent return from blindly backing almost 1000 runners.

But I'd never advise backing them all, so how can we weed out some bets and increase our returns? Well, of those 962 runners...

  • those priced at 11/10 to 12/1 are 154/753 (20.5%) for 177.4pts (+23.6%)
  • males are 131/714 (18.4%) for 78.4pts (+11%)
  • from November to February : 101/515 (19.6%) for 79.5pts (+15.4%)
  • over 5/6 furlongs : 87/438 (19.9%) for 60pts (+13.7%)
  • those last seen 6-20 days ago : 85/422 (20.1%) for 57.9pts (+13.7%)
  • in January : 36/160 (22.5%) for 16.3pts (+10.2%)
  • 6/7 yr olds are 23/149 (15.4%) for 6.73pts (+4.52%)
  • those ridden by today's jockey Sean Levey are 9/47 (19.2%) for 17.3pts (+36.8%)
  • on a straight track : 8/28 (28.6%) for 6.23pts (+22.3%)
  • and here at Newcastle : 2/12 916.6%) for 1.87pts (+15.6%)

Now all of the above angles are profitable, but each is rather specialised/specific, so what I'd advise would be to take a more composite overview based on the above data, but with just 40% of the original runners, but with increased profits and ROI, as follows in a simple Stuart Williams A/W micro-system that's worth logging and saving for future reference...

...2009-17 / 3-10 yr old males / priced at 11-10 to 12-1 over 5f to 10f / running in July to February within 120 days of their last run... which gives 98 winners from 385 (25.5% SR) runners for profits of some 207.4pts at an ROI of 53.9%, with no spike to skew the numbers, as it has made profit in each of the last 9 years, including of relevance today...

  • 9/42 (21.4%) for 16.7pts (+39.7%) on Tapeta
  • 6/23 (26.1%) for 13.75pts (+59.8%) over the last two months alone
  • 6/18 (33.3%) for 21pts (+116.5%) under jockey Sean Levey
  • 4/14 928.6%) for 5.07pts (+36.2%) on a straight run
  • and 2/7 (28.6%) for 6.87pts (+98.1%) here at Newcastle.

...all of which points to...... a 1pt win bet on Shamshon @ 3/1 BOG which was widely available at 8.20pm on New Year's Day. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 6.10 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 24th November 2017

Thursday's Result :

1.25 Wincanton : Cucklington @ 11/4 BOG WON at 13/8 Led from 2nd, headed 16th, led again before 4 out, clear before 2 out, held on towards finish to win by a length and a half.

Next up is Friday's...

6.15 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Handsome Bob @ 3/1 BOG

A Class 5, 2yo A/W Handicap (Nursery) over a mile on Tapeta worth £3,558 to the winner.

A fairly simple, no-frills, back to basics approach today with a 2yr old (obviously!) colt, who seems to like the tapeta well enough, having made the frame on both previous runs on the surface. He wears a visor for the first time today and is effectively a pound well in ahead of his future mark.

I think he has an excellent chance here today, but the reason he caught my eye from a numerical perspective is because...

...trainer Keith Dalgleish + males priced at Evens to 9/1 + A/W handicaps + October to February inclusive = 46/235 (19.% SR) for 38.25pts (+16.3% ROI) since 2011, and of particular relevance today amongst those 235 winter 'cappers...

  • over trips of 6 to 8.5 furlongs : 28/146 (19.2%) for 71.15pts (+48.7%)
  • at Class 5 : 19/90 (21.1%) for 18.5pts (+20.5%)
  • those beaten by just 1 to 3 lengths LTO are 15/58 (25.9%) for 19.96pts (+34.4%)
  • wearing the applied headgear for the first time : 7/28 (25%) for 13.3pts (+47.6%)
  • in a visor : 5/23 (21.7%) for 7.6pts (+33%)
  • and in a visor less than 3 times : 5/12 (41.7%) for 18.6pts (+155%)

He's drawn 5 of 6 and is likely to travel down the field waiting for a late run, based on past performances and the Geegeez racecard pace and draw information suggests a high draw coming from off the pace is the best place to be.

...and that's the basis for... a 1pt win bet on Handsome Bob @ 3/1 BOG which was offered by Bet365, Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.35pm on Thursday. I've actually managed to grab some 100/30 BOG from SkyBet, so I'd recommend you try that too, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 6.15 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Race of the Day – 20 Oct 2017

Race of the Day - 17:40 Newcastle

It's Matt standing in for Steve for Friday's Race of the Day, and we're staying on the all weather for a mile and a quarter Class 5 handicap at Newcastle. Friday's Feature of the Day - free to all registered users - is the Horses For Courses report, and top of the tree on there with a 50% win record is Richard Guest's Bollihope.

Bollihope has an excellent course record at Newcastle

Bollihope has an excellent course record at Newcastle

Using Full Form, with course and distance boxes selected, we can see his three wins have all come over today's trip, and in this grade or lower.

Bollihope looks to be back to his correct grade for this run

Bollihope looks to be back to his correct grade for this run

 

We can also see from the above that Bollihope has been racing recently off higher marks (OR column) - in the 70's - than when he was winning. Today, as the right hand columns indicate on Instant Expert, he's back to a mark from which he should be competitive, three pounds below that last winning rating of 68.

Your first 30 days for just £1

His line of green and amber contrasts with the sea of red from his rivals. This means that he is better proven against today's race conditions, although of course any horse - especially one of the more lightly raced types - could step forward.

Bollihope is the only horse proven against today's conditions

Bollihope is the only horse proven against today's conditions

Flicking back to Full Form and viewing all form, we can see that Bollihope is a good bit better on the all weather than turf, though he did win on grass back in 2015 (when trained by John Gosden).

It may be interesting then that he returns to the 'sand' after six turf runs which have moved his mark down from 73 to today's 65.

 

Bollihope is drawn in stall one and should be able to track the pace, likely made by Livella Fella, as seen below on our Pace tab, sorted by draw. There is a probably lone speed, and though Connor Beasley's mount is general a mid-division runner, the shape of this race - inside draw and very little pace elsewhere - means he'll probably be prominent, a perfect fit historically as can be seen by the green pace 'blob'.

Newcastle Pace Map

Newcastle Pace Map

 

 

Off what looks like a regressive series of runs, Bollihope figures to be a fair price at around 6/1 but we can see from the above that he returns to a course, distance and grade which suit him very well.

Click here for the 17:40 at Newcastle.

To get hold of these features and insights for ALL races EVERY day, click here

Stat of the Day, 30th June 2017

Thursday's Result :

4.00 Nottingham : Excel Again @ 9/2 BOG non-runner Reason: Going.

Friday's pick goes in the...

6.00 Newcastle...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Inaam @ 9/2 BOG

Why?

Some of you might wonder why I've chosen this horse when he's up against the one I selected for Thursday, who didn't run electing to come here instead. The main reason is that I feel Inaam is better suited by today's conditions, having already won 5 of 19 on the All-Weather, including...

  • 5/15 in fields of 8-11 runners
  • 4/11 on Tapeta
  • 3/7 here at Newcastle
  • 3/7 on a straight track
  • 2/5 this year
  • 2/3 under jockey Paul Hanagan
  • 1 win and 1 place from 2 runs at 1 mile
  • 1/1 over course and distance.

On top of his own obvious suitability, the Hanagan / Fahey / Newcastle Tapeta angle is 6/26 (23.1% SR) for 8.17pts (+31.4% ROI) already, from which...

  • handicappers are 5/20 (25%) for 8.39pts (+42%)
  • males are 4/16 (25%) for 12pts (+75%)
  • at Class 4 : 2/11 (18.2%) for 5.82pts (+52.9%)
  • 4 yr olds are 3/10 (30%) for 9.42pts (+94.2%)
  • at odds of 9/2 and shorter : 5/9 (55.6%) for 12.77pts (+141.9%)
  • and over this 1m course and distance : 3/6 (50%) for 14.4pts (+240.1%)

It's quite possible I'll end the month with egg on my face, but I think that Inaam stands a better chance of winning and at the prices available offers more value than Excel Again...

...and that's why it's...a 1pt win bet on Inaam9/2 BOG which was offered by Coral, Ladbrokes & 3 smaller firms at 5.55pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 6.00 Newcastle...

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 1st June 2017

Wednesday's Result :

8.10 Ayr : Trinity Star @ 10/3 BOG 5th at 5/4 Dwelt towards rear, switched right 2f out, ridden and headway entering final furlong, no impression towards finish.

Thursday's pick goes in the...

6.50 Newcastle...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Fredricka @ 7/2 BOG

Why?

A very consistent 6 yr old Mare who has finished 232213 in her last four outings on the A/W, having shown improvement under the four runs she had whilst at Jose Santos' yard.

She now makes a debut for trainer Chris Dwyer, whose runners are going really well of late with 4 winners and 2 placers from 9 in the last fortnight and 3 winners / 2 placers from 8 in the last week.

More long-term, the Dwyer A/W handicappers are 82/489 (16.8% SR) for 194.5pts (+39.8% ROI) since 2013, including of note/relevance today...

  • over trips of 5 to 8 furlongs : 69/381 (18.1%) for 235.8pts (+61.9%)
  • females are 31/170 (18.2%) for 63.7pts (+37.5%)
  • on Tapeta : 16/106 (15.1%) for 33.3pts (+31.4%)
  • in female only races : 13/43 (30.2%) for 28.24pts (+65.7%)
  • females over trips of 5 to 8 furlongs on Tapeta : 6/21 (28.6%) for 46.7pts (+222.2%)
  • and females over trips of 5 to 8 furlongs on Tapeta in female only races : 3/5 (60%) for 29.26pts (+585.3%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Fredricka7/2 BOG which was widely available at 6.25pm on Wednesday, but those able to take the 4/1 BOG offered by Ladbrokes would be advised to do so. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 6.50 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

Stat of the Day, 24th March 2017

Thursday's Result :

7.50 Chelmsford : Rosie Crowe @ 5/1 BOG 5th at 5/1 Led, ridden and headed over 1f out, kept on, no extra final 50 yards

Friday's pick goes in the...

7.45 Newcastle...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Scala Regia11/4 BOG

Why?

A 3 yr old filly who won here over course and distance on her last outing 2 weeks ago, when ridden by today's jockey Luke Morris.

She's trained by Sir Mark Prescott, who A/W handicappers are 50 from 177 (28.3% SR) for 117.1pts (+66.1% ROI) profit since the start of 2015 and for blind backing, those are terrific numbers. Based on today's race conditions, these runners have achieved the following...

  • ridden by Luke Morris = 46/147 (31.3%) for 126pts (+85.7%)
  • 6-45 days since last run = 40/136 (29.4%) for 119.6pts (+87.9%)
  • 3 yr olds are 35/112 (31.3%) for 87.6pts (+78.2%)
  • females are 20/71 (28.2%) for 72.9pts (+102.7%)
  • on Tapeta : 22/69 (31.9%) for 81.3pts (+117.9%)
  • at Class 6 : 22/61 (36.1%) for 99.2pts (+162.7%)
  • over 6/7 furlongs : 12/34 (35.3%) for 60.4pts (+177.6%)
  • and here at Newcastle : 8/23 (34.8%) for 22.8pts (+99%)

AND...from the above : Prescott / Morris / Class 6 3yo handicaps / females at 6-45 dslr = 4/7 (57.1% SR) for 32.93pts (+470.4% ROI)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Scala Regia 11/4 BOG which was available from Bet365, Betfair Sports & SkyBet at 5.45pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 7.45 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

Stat of the Day, 22nd March 2017

Tuesday's Result :

5.35 Southwell : State Residence @ 4/1 BOG 10th at 7/2 report to follow later

Wednesday's pick goes in the...

5.00 Newcastle...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Spirit of the Vale7/2 BOG

Why?

A 4yr old filly in great form, with finishes of 141 in her last three starts, with both victories coming from her only two previous cracks at this track and trip, the latest of which was 13 days ago.

She won with a fair bit in hand last time and now aims to take her Newcastle record to 3 from 3 for trainer Oliver Greenall.

Oliver's not the most well-known trainer out there, not does he have the biggest or best string at his disposal, but he has discovered an area he can do well in and that would appear to be with fairly popular A/W runners...

...as his A/W runners priced at 2/1 to 6/1 are 6 from 8 (75% SR) for 25.1pts (+313.4%). Now I know it's a small sample size, but a closer analysis of those 8 races convinced me that this filly was worth a punt, because of how today's race characteristics tie in the 8 previous runners, such as...

  • in hcps : 6/8 (75%) for 25.1pts (+313.4%)
  • here at Newcastle : 6/7 (85.7%) for 26.1pts (+372.5%)
  • at Class 6 : 5/6 (83.3%) for 20.2pts (+336.4%)
  • within 15 days of last run : 5/5 (100%) for 23.68pts (+473.6%)
  • 4 yr olds are 3/4 (75%) for 14.36pts (+359%)
  • and females are 2/2 (100%) for 9.28pts (+464%)

and whilst this is a fairly simplistic approach (for a change!), it's one I feel will bear fruit...

...hence...a 1pt win bet on Spirit of the Vale 7/2 BOG which was pretty widely available at 5.55pm on Tuesday, but DO grab the 4/1 BOG offered by Betfair Sportsbook if you can! To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 5.00 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

Stat of the Day, 9th March 2017

Wednesday's Result :

4.30 Lingfield : Make Music @ 13/2 BOG (5.2/1 after R4) WON at 11/4 Made most, ridden over 1f out, headed, rallied and ran on to win gamely by a neck.

Thursday's pick goes in the...

7.45 Newcastle...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

War Department10/3 BOG

Why?

A 4 yr old gelding who was a winner here over course and distance by a length and a quarter having been eased down by today's jockey with seemingly more to give.

Trainer Keith Dalgleish's A/W handicappers priced at 12/1 and shorter are 77/469 (17.7% SR) for 48.3pts (+10.8% ROI) since 2011, of which...

  • males are 65/356 (18.3%) for 35.5pts (+10%)
  • those racing over 7f ar 20/97 (20.6%) for 52.3pts (+53.9%$)
  • and males over 7f = 19/86 (22.1%) for 5.3pts (+64.4%)

And in addition to the above, Keith's very good at getting LTO winners to win again with those priced shorter than 12/1 winning 39 of 150 (26% SR) follow-up races for profits of 46.1pts (+30.75% ROI) since the start of 2015, with those racing over the same course and distance as LTO winning 10 of 23 (43.5%) for 26pts (+113.2%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on War Department 10/3 BOG which was available with Hills and Skybet at 5.50pm on Wednesday with plenty of acceptable 3/1 BOG on offer elsewhere. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 7.45 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all returns quoted are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

Stat of the Day, 2nd March 2017

Wednesday's Result :

2.30 Musselburgh : Dear Sire @ 11/2 BOG WON at 4/1 Tracked leaders, went 2nd 4 out, led approaching next, mistake 2 out, 2 lengths clear when blundered and good recovery by rider last, rider continued without irons flat, ridden out, kept on well to win by 5 lengths

Thursday's pick goes in the...

5.25 Newcastle...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Dark Side Dream 4/1 BOG

Why?

A very consistent 5yr old gelding who is trained by Chris Dwyer, a trainer with a good record in A/W handicaps in recent years, winning 77 of 454 (17% SR) for 202.5pts (+44.6% ROI) since the start of 2013, including...

  • those returning from a break of 4 to 30 days = 71/354 (20.1%) for 239pts (+67.5%)
  • over 5f to 1m : 64/353 (18.1%) for 236.8pts (+67.1%)
  • those finishing 2nd/3rd LTO are 28/115 (24.4%) for 112.4pts (+97.8%)
  • on tapeta : 14/93 (15.1%) for 35.8pts (+38.5%)
  • and those ridden by Silvestre de Sousa are 24/83 (28.9%) for 66.2pts (+79.8%)

And from the above, we can ascertain that those racing over 5f to 1m, 4 to 30 days after their last run are 59/279 (21.2% SR) for 261.1pts (+93.6% ROI), of which those who finished 2nd or 3rd LTO are 24/82 (29.3%) for 124.1pts (+151.3%)

...providing a...a 1pt win bet on Dark Side Dream 4/1 BOG which was widely available at 6.05pm on Wednesday and to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 5.25 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all returns quoted are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

Stat of the Day, 7th February 2017

Monday's Result :

2.20 Wolverhampton : Nimr @ 2/1 BOG WON at 3/1 Tracked leaders, went 2nd over 1f out, soon ridden, led inside final furlong, held on well to win by a half length.

Tuesday's pick goes in the...

3.40 Newcastle

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Eastern Dragon @ 9/4 BOG

Why?

A 7 yr old gelding with two wins from his last four starts, who also won last time out 17 days ago at the same course, distance, class and jockey booking as he has today and he'll be looking to build upon a decent A/W record that includes...

  • 3 wins from 9 over a mile, 2 from 4 over course and distance
  • 2/4 in cheekpieces, 2/3 at odds below 3/1 and 1/1 from that LTO run under jockey Callum Rodriguez.

Trained by Iain Jardine, whose handicappers are 65/453 (14.4% SR) for 253.9pts (+56.1% ROI) since the start of 2015, with the following of relevance/interest today...

  • males are 42/303 (13.9%) for 264pts (+87.1%)
  • those last seen 6-25 days ago are 49/290 (16.9%) for 205.7pts (+70.9%)
  • on the A/W : 16/123 (13%) for 57.4pts (+46.7%)
  • at Class 4 : 17/118 (14.4%) for 45.1pts (+38.2%)
  • and LTO winners are 20/63 (31.8%) for 40.1pts (+63.6%)

...giving...a 1pt win bet on Eastern Dragon @ 9/4 BOG which was available in half a dozen places at 5.25pm on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.40 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

Stat of the Day, 1st February 2017

Tuesday's Result :

2.45 Wolverhampton : Oor Jock @ 4/1 BOG 2nd at 2/1 Held up towards rear, headway over 1f out, chased winner inside final furlong, kept on but held by 3 lengths.

Wednesday's pick goes in the...

7.00 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Palenville @ 3/1 BOG

Why?

This 4 yr old filly has been knocking on the door of late, finishing 2323 in her last four outings and has already won over this trip at a higher grade than today.

She was considered good enough as a 2yr old to contest the Group 3 Albany Stakes at Ascot in June 2015, before taking a lengthy layoff and a subsequent switch of yards to current handler Simon Crisford, who should be one of your go-to trainers on the All-Weather.

Fairly new to the training game. backing all of his A/W runners to date gives you 38 winners from 128 (20.9% SR) for level stakes profits of some 33.1pts at an ROI of 24.7% and these are excellent numbers from just blindly following a trainer. In fact, I could well draw stumps and call it a night having already justified the selection.

However, this is SotD and we always look for a more refined angle to our main stat, let's look at Simon's 128 A/W runners, shall we? And if we do, we quickly establish that...

  • handicappers are 16/65 (24.6%) for 32.pts (+50.6%)
  • those placed 3rd to 6th LTO are 15/43 (34.9%) for 51.4pts (+119.5%)
  • on Tapeta : 12/40 (30%) for 13.3pts (+33.2%)
  • over trips of 6f and shorter : 11/30 (36.7%) for 29.4pts (+98%)
  • and at today's 6f trip : 8/25 (32%) for 25.2pts (+100.8%)
  • whilst 4 yr olds are 5/22 (22.7%) for 11.6pts (+52.6%)

All of the above apply today and give more levels of reasoning to the pick...

...leaving us with...a 1pt win bet on Palenville @ 3/1 BOG which was available with Bet365 and BetVictor at 9.00pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 7.00 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

Stat of the Day, 27th January 2017

Thursday's Result :

3.20 Southwell : Western Presence @ 11/4 BOG last of 7 at 3/1 Broke well, led early, chased leaders, ridden over 1f out, weakened badly inside final furlong

Thursday's pick goes in the...

6.45 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Rich Again @ 9/2 BOG

Why?

This 8 yr old gelding is in great from, winning 3 of his last 7, 2 of his last 4 and was a course and distance winner here 15 days ago on his latest outing. All told he has 10 wins from 32 starts on the A/W, including...

  • 6/17 at Class 4, 4/13 in blinkers, 3/8 over 5 furlongs
  • 2/7 under today's jockey, 3/5 in January, 2/4 here at Newcastle
  • 2/4 carrying 9st 7lbs, 2/3 over course and distance and 2/3 off a break of just 8-15 days.

He's also top of the Geegeez Speed Ratings, of which top rated runners over the 5f trip have a 22% strike rate over the last five years.

And he's trained by James Bethell, whose runners are 27/178 (15.2% SR) for 35.4pts (+19.9% ROI) in A/W handicaps since 2010, with the following of note here...

  • 6-45 dslr = 26/134 (19.4%) for 77.9pts (+58.2%)
  • on Tapeta : 14/51 (27.5%) for 26.9pts (+52.8%)
  • here at Newcastle : 6/19 (31.6%) for 15.3pts (+80.6%)
  • and over 5f : 3/10 (30%) for 13.18pts (+131.8%)

...giving us a 1pt win bet on Rich Again @ 9/2 BOG which was widely available at 5.45pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 6.45 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

Stat of the Day, 21st January 2017

Friday's Result :

12.50 Musselburgh: Danceintothelight @ 6/1 BOG WON at 13/2 Made all, soon clear, ridden before 2 out, kept on well to win by 4.5 lengths.

Saturday's pick goes in the...

7.45 Newcastle

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Swansway @ 7/2 BOG

Why?

This 4 yr old gelding was a winner over course and distance last time out, three weeks ago under today's jockey Nathan Evans and he's been very consistent of late on the A/W, making the frame in each of his last four runs.

He's up 4lbs for that win, but he was slow away last time, yet stayed on well to win by a length and a half, so with a better start this time, should be able to handle the extra weight.

He's trained by Mick Easterby whose LTO winners are 43/214 (20.1% SR) for 39.7pts (+18.6% ROI) over the last four years, with the following of particular relevance today...

  • in handicaps : 43/209 (20.6%) for 44.7pts (+21.4%)
  • males are 39/186 (21%) for 47.3pts (+25.4%)
  • those priced at 9/4 to 8/1 are 34/125 (27.2%) for 65.7pts (+52.5%)
  • over the last two years : 24/119 (20.2%) for 37.5pts (+31.5%)
  • those who won by just 1 to 3 lengths LTO are 21/91 (23.1%) for 56.5pts (+62%)
  • ridden by Nathan Evans : 9/51 (17.7%) for 11.1pts (+21.8%)
  • and at Class 6 : 7/29 (24.1%) for 19.4pts (+66.9%)

AND...if you just backed the male handicappers priced at 9/4 to 8/1 over the last 4 yrs, you'd have had 30 winners from 102 (29.4% SR) and profits of 68.2pts at an ROI of 66.9%

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Swansway @ 7/2 BOG which was offered by Bet365, BetVictor and Hills at 9.45pm on Friday and to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 7.45 Newcastle 

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

Stat of the Day, 4th January 2017

Tuesday's Result :

1.30 Musselburgh : Proud Gamble @ 11/4 BOG 3rd at 7/1 Tracked leaders, ridden before 4 out, kept on but beaten by 4.5 lengths.

Wednesday's pick goes in the...

2.35 Newcastle

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Bollihope @ 11/4 BOG

Why?

Jockey Connor Beasley is 34 from 203 (16.75% SR) for 34.7pts (+17.1% ROI) when riding for trainer Richard Guest, which is a decent starting point to build a bet, as of those 203 rides, the partnership are...

  • 14/71 (19.7%) for 23.2pts (+32.7%) on the All-Weather
  • 8/30 (26.7%) for 20.6pts (+68.8%) here at Newcastle
  • 5/29 (17.2%) for 2.2pts (+7.5%) on Tapeta
  • 7/25 (28%) for 11.3pts (+45.2%) over this 1m2f trip
  • 5/24 (20.8%) for 7.2pts (+29.9%) on the Tapeta here at Newcastle
  • and 2/3 (66.6%) for 7.57pts (+252.3%) over this tapeta course and distance

And if that wasn't enough to whet the appetite, they come together with just one horse today : Bollihope, who is more than proven at the task he faces here.

To date, he has 3 wins from 9 (33.3% SR) for profits of 23.56pts (+261.8% ROI) on the All-Weather, including...

  • 3 from 6 (50%) for 26.56pts (+442.7%) going left handed
  • 3 from 5 (60%) for 27.56pts (+551.3%) on tapeta
  • 3 from 5 (60%) for 27.56pts (+551.3%) over 1m 2f
  • 3 from 3 (100%) for 29.56pts (+985.5%) here at Newcastle
  • 3 from 3 (100%) for 29.56pts (+985.5%) over course and distance
  • 2 from 4 (50%) for 6.57pts (+164.2%) under Connor Beasley
  • 2 from 3 (66.6%) for 7.57pts (+252.3%) at Class 5
  • and 2 from 2 (100%) for 8.57pts (+428.5%) under Connor Beasley over course and distance.

..giving us...a 1pt win bet on Bollihope @ 11/4 BOG which was available from Betfair Sports and a half dozen others (so we should all get the same price!) at 5.40pm on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.35 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard