Thursday's Result :
4.00 Nottingham : Excel Again @ 9/2 BOG non-runner Reason: Going.
Friday's pick goes in the...
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Inaam @ 9/2 BOG
Some of you might wonder why I've chosen this horse when he's up against the one I selected for Thursday, who didn't run electing to come here instead. The main reason is that I feel Inaam is better suited by today's conditions, having already won 5 of 19 on the All-Weather, including...
- 5/15 in fields of 8-11 runners
- 4/11 on Tapeta
- 3/7 here at Newcastle
- 3/7 on a straight track
- 2/5 this year
- 2/3 under jockey Paul Hanagan
- 1 win and 1 place from 2 runs at 1 mile
- 1/1 over course and distance.
On top of his own obvious suitability, the Hanagan / Fahey / Newcastle Tapeta angle is 6/26 (23.1% SR) for 8.17pts (+31.4% ROI) already, from which...
- handicappers are 5/20 (25%) for 8.39pts (+42%)
- males are 4/16 (25%) for 12pts (+75%)
- at Class 4 : 2/11 (18.2%) for 5.82pts (+52.9%)
- 4 yr olds are 3/10 (30%) for 9.42pts (+94.2%)
- at odds of 9/2 and shorter : 5/9 (55.6%) for 12.77pts (+141.9%)
- and over this 1m course and distance : 3/6 (50%) for 14.4pts (+240.1%)
It's quite possible I'll end the month with egg on my face, but I think that Inaam stands a better chance of winning and at the prices available offers more value than Excel Again...
...and that's why it's...a 1pt win bet on Inaam @ 9/2 BOG which was offered by Coral, Ladbrokes & 3 smaller firms at 5.55pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...
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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!