Posts

Stat of the Day, 30th June 2017

Thursday's Result :

4.00 Nottingham : Excel Again @ 9/2 BOG non-runner Reason: Going.

Friday's pick goes in the...

6.00 Newcastle...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Inaam @ 9/2 BOG

Why?

Some of you might wonder why I've chosen this horse when he's up against the one I selected for Thursday, who didn't run electing to come here instead. The main reason is that I feel Inaam is better suited by today's conditions, having already won 5 of 19 on the All-Weather, including...

  • 5/15 in fields of 8-11 runners
  • 4/11 on Tapeta
  • 3/7 here at Newcastle
  • 3/7 on a straight track
  • 2/5 this year
  • 2/3 under jockey Paul Hanagan
  • 1 win and 1 place from 2 runs at 1 mile
  • 1/1 over course and distance.

On top of his own obvious suitability, the Hanagan / Fahey / Newcastle Tapeta angle is 6/26 (23.1% SR) for 8.17pts (+31.4% ROI) already, from which...

  • handicappers are 5/20 (25%) for 8.39pts (+42%)
  • males are 4/16 (25%) for 12pts (+75%)
  • at Class 4 : 2/11 (18.2%) for 5.82pts (+52.9%)
  • 4 yr olds are 3/10 (30%) for 9.42pts (+94.2%)
  • at odds of 9/2 and shorter : 5/9 (55.6%) for 12.77pts (+141.9%)
  • and over this 1m course and distance : 3/6 (50%) for 14.4pts (+240.1%)

It's quite possible I'll end the month with egg on my face, but I think that Inaam stands a better chance of winning and at the prices available offers more value than Excel Again...

...and that's why it's...a 1pt win bet on Inaam9/2 BOG which was offered by Coral, Ladbrokes & 3 smaller firms at 5.55pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 6.00 Newcastle...

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 1st June 2017

Wednesday's Result :

8.10 Ayr : Trinity Star @ 10/3 BOG 5th at 5/4 Dwelt towards rear, switched right 2f out, ridden and headway entering final furlong, no impression towards finish.

Thursday's pick goes in the...

6.50 Newcastle...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Fredricka @ 7/2 BOG

Why?

A very consistent 6 yr old Mare who has finished 232213 in her last four outings on the A/W, having shown improvement under the four runs she had whilst at Jose Santos' yard.

She now makes a debut for trainer Chris Dwyer, whose runners are going really well of late with 4 winners and 2 placers from 9 in the last fortnight and 3 winners / 2 placers from 8 in the last week.

More long-term, the Dwyer A/W handicappers are 82/489 (16.8% SR) for 194.5pts (+39.8% ROI) since 2013, including of note/relevance today...

  • over trips of 5 to 8 furlongs : 69/381 (18.1%) for 235.8pts (+61.9%)
  • females are 31/170 (18.2%) for 63.7pts (+37.5%)
  • on Tapeta : 16/106 (15.1%) for 33.3pts (+31.4%)
  • in female only races : 13/43 (30.2%) for 28.24pts (+65.7%)
  • females over trips of 5 to 8 furlongs on Tapeta : 6/21 (28.6%) for 46.7pts (+222.2%)
  • and females over trips of 5 to 8 furlongs on Tapeta in female only races : 3/5 (60%) for 29.26pts (+585.3%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Fredricka7/2 BOG which was widely available at 6.25pm on Wednesday, but those able to take the 4/1 BOG offered by Ladbrokes would be advised to do so. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 6.50 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

Stat of the Day, 24th March 2017

Thursday's Result :

7.50 Chelmsford : Rosie Crowe @ 5/1 BOG 5th at 5/1 Led, ridden and headed over 1f out, kept on, no extra final 50 yards

Friday's pick goes in the...

7.45 Newcastle...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Scala Regia11/4 BOG

Why?

A 3 yr old filly who won here over course and distance on her last outing 2 weeks ago, when ridden by today's jockey Luke Morris.

She's trained by Sir Mark Prescott, who A/W handicappers are 50 from 177 (28.3% SR) for 117.1pts (+66.1% ROI) profit since the start of 2015 and for blind backing, those are terrific numbers. Based on today's race conditions, these runners have achieved the following...

  • ridden by Luke Morris = 46/147 (31.3%) for 126pts (+85.7%)
  • 6-45 days since last run = 40/136 (29.4%) for 119.6pts (+87.9%)
  • 3 yr olds are 35/112 (31.3%) for 87.6pts (+78.2%)
  • females are 20/71 (28.2%) for 72.9pts (+102.7%)
  • on Tapeta : 22/69 (31.9%) for 81.3pts (+117.9%)
  • at Class 6 : 22/61 (36.1%) for 99.2pts (+162.7%)
  • over 6/7 furlongs : 12/34 (35.3%) for 60.4pts (+177.6%)
  • and here at Newcastle : 8/23 (34.8%) for 22.8pts (+99%)

AND...from the above : Prescott / Morris / Class 6 3yo handicaps / females at 6-45 dslr = 4/7 (57.1% SR) for 32.93pts (+470.4% ROI)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Scala Regia 11/4 BOG which was available from Bet365, Betfair Sports & SkyBet at 5.45pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 7.45 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

Stat of the Day, 22nd March 2017

Tuesday's Result :

5.35 Southwell : State Residence @ 4/1 BOG 10th at 7/2 report to follow later

Wednesday's pick goes in the...

5.00 Newcastle...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Spirit of the Vale7/2 BOG

Why?

A 4yr old filly in great form, with finishes of 141 in her last three starts, with both victories coming from her only two previous cracks at this track and trip, the latest of which was 13 days ago.

She won with a fair bit in hand last time and now aims to take her Newcastle record to 3 from 3 for trainer Oliver Greenall.

Oliver's not the most well-known trainer out there, not does he have the biggest or best string at his disposal, but he has discovered an area he can do well in and that would appear to be with fairly popular A/W runners...

...as his A/W runners priced at 2/1 to 6/1 are 6 from 8 (75% SR) for 25.1pts (+313.4%). Now I know it's a small sample size, but a closer analysis of those 8 races convinced me that this filly was worth a punt, because of how today's race characteristics tie in the 8 previous runners, such as...

  • in hcps : 6/8 (75%) for 25.1pts (+313.4%)
  • here at Newcastle : 6/7 (85.7%) for 26.1pts (+372.5%)
  • at Class 6 : 5/6 (83.3%) for 20.2pts (+336.4%)
  • within 15 days of last run : 5/5 (100%) for 23.68pts (+473.6%)
  • 4 yr olds are 3/4 (75%) for 14.36pts (+359%)
  • and females are 2/2 (100%) for 9.28pts (+464%)

and whilst this is a fairly simplistic approach (for a change!), it's one I feel will bear fruit...

...hence...a 1pt win bet on Spirit of the Vale 7/2 BOG which was pretty widely available at 5.55pm on Tuesday, but DO grab the 4/1 BOG offered by Betfair Sportsbook if you can! To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 5.00 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

Stat of the Day, 9th March 2017

Wednesday's Result :

4.30 Lingfield : Make Music @ 13/2 BOG (5.2/1 after R4) WON at 11/4 Made most, ridden over 1f out, headed, rallied and ran on to win gamely by a neck.

Thursday's pick goes in the...

7.45 Newcastle...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

War Department10/3 BOG

Why?

A 4 yr old gelding who was a winner here over course and distance by a length and a quarter having been eased down by today's jockey with seemingly more to give.

Trainer Keith Dalgleish's A/W handicappers priced at 12/1 and shorter are 77/469 (17.7% SR) for 48.3pts (+10.8% ROI) since 2011, of which...

  • males are 65/356 (18.3%) for 35.5pts (+10%)
  • those racing over 7f ar 20/97 (20.6%) for 52.3pts (+53.9%$)
  • and males over 7f = 19/86 (22.1%) for 5.3pts (+64.4%)

And in addition to the above, Keith's very good at getting LTO winners to win again with those priced shorter than 12/1 winning 39 of 150 (26% SR) follow-up races for profits of 46.1pts (+30.75% ROI) since the start of 2015, with those racing over the same course and distance as LTO winning 10 of 23 (43.5%) for 26pts (+113.2%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on War Department 10/3 BOG which was available with Hills and Skybet at 5.50pm on Wednesday with plenty of acceptable 3/1 BOG on offer elsewhere. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 7.45 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all returns quoted are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

Stat of the Day, 2nd March 2017

Wednesday's Result :

2.30 Musselburgh : Dear Sire @ 11/2 BOG WON at 4/1 Tracked leaders, went 2nd 4 out, led approaching next, mistake 2 out, 2 lengths clear when blundered and good recovery by rider last, rider continued without irons flat, ridden out, kept on well to win by 5 lengths

Thursday's pick goes in the...

5.25 Newcastle...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Dark Side Dream 4/1 BOG

Why?

A very consistent 5yr old gelding who is trained by Chris Dwyer, a trainer with a good record in A/W handicaps in recent years, winning 77 of 454 (17% SR) for 202.5pts (+44.6% ROI) since the start of 2013, including...

  • those returning from a break of 4 to 30 days = 71/354 (20.1%) for 239pts (+67.5%)
  • over 5f to 1m : 64/353 (18.1%) for 236.8pts (+67.1%)
  • those finishing 2nd/3rd LTO are 28/115 (24.4%) for 112.4pts (+97.8%)
  • on tapeta : 14/93 (15.1%) for 35.8pts (+38.5%)
  • and those ridden by Silvestre de Sousa are 24/83 (28.9%) for 66.2pts (+79.8%)

And from the above, we can ascertain that those racing over 5f to 1m, 4 to 30 days after their last run are 59/279 (21.2% SR) for 261.1pts (+93.6% ROI), of which those who finished 2nd or 3rd LTO are 24/82 (29.3%) for 124.1pts (+151.3%)

...providing a...a 1pt win bet on Dark Side Dream 4/1 BOG which was widely available at 6.05pm on Wednesday and to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 5.25 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all returns quoted are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

Stat of the Day, 7th February 2017

Monday's Result :

2.20 Wolverhampton : Nimr @ 2/1 BOG WON at 3/1 Tracked leaders, went 2nd over 1f out, soon ridden, led inside final furlong, held on well to win by a half length.

Tuesday's pick goes in the...

3.40 Newcastle

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Eastern Dragon @ 9/4 BOG

Why?

A 7 yr old gelding with two wins from his last four starts, who also won last time out 17 days ago at the same course, distance, class and jockey booking as he has today and he'll be looking to build upon a decent A/W record that includes...

  • 3 wins from 9 over a mile, 2 from 4 over course and distance
  • 2/4 in cheekpieces, 2/3 at odds below 3/1 and 1/1 from that LTO run under jockey Callum Rodriguez.

Trained by Iain Jardine, whose handicappers are 65/453 (14.4% SR) for 253.9pts (+56.1% ROI) since the start of 2015, with the following of relevance/interest today...

  • males are 42/303 (13.9%) for 264pts (+87.1%)
  • those last seen 6-25 days ago are 49/290 (16.9%) for 205.7pts (+70.9%)
  • on the A/W : 16/123 (13%) for 57.4pts (+46.7%)
  • at Class 4 : 17/118 (14.4%) for 45.1pts (+38.2%)
  • and LTO winners are 20/63 (31.8%) for 40.1pts (+63.6%)

...giving...a 1pt win bet on Eastern Dragon @ 9/4 BOG which was available in half a dozen places at 5.25pm on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.40 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

Stat of the Day, 1st February 2017

Tuesday's Result :

2.45 Wolverhampton : Oor Jock @ 4/1 BOG 2nd at 2/1 Held up towards rear, headway over 1f out, chased winner inside final furlong, kept on but held by 3 lengths.

Wednesday's pick goes in the...

7.00 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Palenville @ 3/1 BOG

Why?

This 4 yr old filly has been knocking on the door of late, finishing 2323 in her last four outings and has already won over this trip at a higher grade than today.

She was considered good enough as a 2yr old to contest the Group 3 Albany Stakes at Ascot in June 2015, before taking a lengthy layoff and a subsequent switch of yards to current handler Simon Crisford, who should be one of your go-to trainers on the All-Weather.

Fairly new to the training game. backing all of his A/W runners to date gives you 38 winners from 128 (20.9% SR) for level stakes profits of some 33.1pts at an ROI of 24.7% and these are excellent numbers from just blindly following a trainer. In fact, I could well draw stumps and call it a night having already justified the selection.

However, this is SotD and we always look for a more refined angle to our main stat, let's look at Simon's 128 A/W runners, shall we? And if we do, we quickly establish that...

  • handicappers are 16/65 (24.6%) for 32.pts (+50.6%)
  • those placed 3rd to 6th LTO are 15/43 (34.9%) for 51.4pts (+119.5%)
  • on Tapeta : 12/40 (30%) for 13.3pts (+33.2%)
  • over trips of 6f and shorter : 11/30 (36.7%) for 29.4pts (+98%)
  • and at today's 6f trip : 8/25 (32%) for 25.2pts (+100.8%)
  • whilst 4 yr olds are 5/22 (22.7%) for 11.6pts (+52.6%)

All of the above apply today and give more levels of reasoning to the pick...

...leaving us with...a 1pt win bet on Palenville @ 3/1 BOG which was available with Bet365 and BetVictor at 9.00pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 7.00 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

Stat of the Day, 27th January 2017

Thursday's Result :

3.20 Southwell : Western Presence @ 11/4 BOG last of 7 at 3/1 Broke well, led early, chased leaders, ridden over 1f out, weakened badly inside final furlong

Thursday's pick goes in the...

6.45 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Rich Again @ 9/2 BOG

Why?

This 8 yr old gelding is in great from, winning 3 of his last 7, 2 of his last 4 and was a course and distance winner here 15 days ago on his latest outing. All told he has 10 wins from 32 starts on the A/W, including...

  • 6/17 at Class 4, 4/13 in blinkers, 3/8 over 5 furlongs
  • 2/7 under today's jockey, 3/5 in January, 2/4 here at Newcastle
  • 2/4 carrying 9st 7lbs, 2/3 over course and distance and 2/3 off a break of just 8-15 days.

He's also top of the Geegeez Speed Ratings, of which top rated runners over the 5f trip have a 22% strike rate over the last five years.

And he's trained by James Bethell, whose runners are 27/178 (15.2% SR) for 35.4pts (+19.9% ROI) in A/W handicaps since 2010, with the following of note here...

  • 6-45 dslr = 26/134 (19.4%) for 77.9pts (+58.2%)
  • on Tapeta : 14/51 (27.5%) for 26.9pts (+52.8%)
  • here at Newcastle : 6/19 (31.6%) for 15.3pts (+80.6%)
  • and over 5f : 3/10 (30%) for 13.18pts (+131.8%)

...giving us a 1pt win bet on Rich Again @ 9/2 BOG which was widely available at 5.45pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 6.45 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

Stat of the Day, 21st January 2017

Friday's Result :

12.50 Musselburgh: Danceintothelight @ 6/1 BOG WON at 13/2 Made all, soon clear, ridden before 2 out, kept on well to win by 4.5 lengths.

Saturday's pick goes in the...

7.45 Newcastle

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Swansway @ 7/2 BOG

Why?

This 4 yr old gelding was a winner over course and distance last time out, three weeks ago under today's jockey Nathan Evans and he's been very consistent of late on the A/W, making the frame in each of his last four runs.

He's up 4lbs for that win, but he was slow away last time, yet stayed on well to win by a length and a half, so with a better start this time, should be able to handle the extra weight.

He's trained by Mick Easterby whose LTO winners are 43/214 (20.1% SR) for 39.7pts (+18.6% ROI) over the last four years, with the following of particular relevance today...

  • in handicaps : 43/209 (20.6%) for 44.7pts (+21.4%)
  • males are 39/186 (21%) for 47.3pts (+25.4%)
  • those priced at 9/4 to 8/1 are 34/125 (27.2%) for 65.7pts (+52.5%)
  • over the last two years : 24/119 (20.2%) for 37.5pts (+31.5%)
  • those who won by just 1 to 3 lengths LTO are 21/91 (23.1%) for 56.5pts (+62%)
  • ridden by Nathan Evans : 9/51 (17.7%) for 11.1pts (+21.8%)
  • and at Class 6 : 7/29 (24.1%) for 19.4pts (+66.9%)

AND...if you just backed the male handicappers priced at 9/4 to 8/1 over the last 4 yrs, you'd have had 30 winners from 102 (29.4% SR) and profits of 68.2pts at an ROI of 66.9%

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Swansway @ 7/2 BOG which was offered by Bet365, BetVictor and Hills at 9.45pm on Friday and to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 7.45 Newcastle 

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

Stat of the Day, 4th January 2017

Tuesday's Result :

1.30 Musselburgh : Proud Gamble @ 11/4 BOG 3rd at 7/1 Tracked leaders, ridden before 4 out, kept on but beaten by 4.5 lengths.

Wednesday's pick goes in the...

2.35 Newcastle

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Bollihope @ 11/4 BOG

Why?

Jockey Connor Beasley is 34 from 203 (16.75% SR) for 34.7pts (+17.1% ROI) when riding for trainer Richard Guest, which is a decent starting point to build a bet, as of those 203 rides, the partnership are...

  • 14/71 (19.7%) for 23.2pts (+32.7%) on the All-Weather
  • 8/30 (26.7%) for 20.6pts (+68.8%) here at Newcastle
  • 5/29 (17.2%) for 2.2pts (+7.5%) on Tapeta
  • 7/25 (28%) for 11.3pts (+45.2%) over this 1m2f trip
  • 5/24 (20.8%) for 7.2pts (+29.9%) on the Tapeta here at Newcastle
  • and 2/3 (66.6%) for 7.57pts (+252.3%) over this tapeta course and distance

And if that wasn't enough to whet the appetite, they come together with just one horse today : Bollihope, who is more than proven at the task he faces here.

To date, he has 3 wins from 9 (33.3% SR) for profits of 23.56pts (+261.8% ROI) on the All-Weather, including...

  • 3 from 6 (50%) for 26.56pts (+442.7%) going left handed
  • 3 from 5 (60%) for 27.56pts (+551.3%) on tapeta
  • 3 from 5 (60%) for 27.56pts (+551.3%) over 1m 2f
  • 3 from 3 (100%) for 29.56pts (+985.5%) here at Newcastle
  • 3 from 3 (100%) for 29.56pts (+985.5%) over course and distance
  • 2 from 4 (50%) for 6.57pts (+164.2%) under Connor Beasley
  • 2 from 3 (66.6%) for 7.57pts (+252.3%) at Class 5
  • and 2 from 2 (100%) for 8.57pts (+428.5%) under Connor Beasley over course and distance.

..giving us...a 1pt win bet on Bollihope @ 11/4 BOG which was available from Betfair Sports and a half dozen others (so we should all get the same price!) at 5.40pm on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.35 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

Stat of the Day, 30th December 2016

Thursday's Result :

11.45 Southwell : Fern Owl @ 4/1 BOG WON @ 2/1 Tracked leaders, led over 2f out, pushed clear over 1f out, very easily, eased closing stages and still won by 8 lengths.

Friday's pick goes in the...

2.50 Newcastle

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Thello @ 5/1 BOG

Why?

Thello has finished 147141 in his last six outings and 118841 in his last six A/W runs and having won over course and distance under today's jockey, last time out a fortnight ago, he's certainly in decent nick.

He has won 5 of his 19 starts so far, which is more than acceptable at this level, where the same horses usually take turns at beating each other, but amongst those 19 runs, I find the following of note today...

  • 4/14 at Class 6
  • 3/10 within 15 days of his last run
  • 4/8 going left handed
  • 3/7 on the A/W
  • 3/6 over 1m2f
  • 2/2 in December
  • 1/1 under Louis Steward
  • and 1/1 over course and distance

He also has the benefit of being trained by Garry Moss, whose handicappers are 24/124 (19.4% SR) for 71.9pts (+58% ROI) over the last two years, including...

  • males : 21/105 (20%) for 79% (+75.3%)
  • over 7f to 1m4.5f : 19/87 (21.8%) for 89.9pts (+103.4%)
  • 11-60 dslr : 21/84 (25%) for 99.3pts (+118.2%)
  • at odds of 11/8 to 9/1  : 20/82 (24.4%) for 31.8pts (+38.9%)
  • at Class 6 : 11/49 (22.5%) for 40.9pts (+83.5%)
  • 4 yr olds are 11/40 (27.5%) for 55.4pts (+138.5%)
  • on Tapeta : 6/31 (19.4%) for 33.5pts (+108.2%)
  • here at Newcastle : 4/20 (20%) for 16.88pts (+84.4%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Thello at 5/1 BOG which was available from Bet365, Betbright, Betway and Betvictor (so we should all be getting the same deal!) at 6.25pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.50 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

Stat of the Day, 28th November 2016

Saturday's Result :

6.15 Wolverhampton : Commanche @ 5/1 BOG 4th at 7/2 (Close up, led over 4f out, ridden over 1f out, headed 1f out, no extra)

Monday's pick goes in the...

3.50 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

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Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Savannah Beau @ 3/1 BOG

Why?

She won here over 6 furlongs last time oput, when seeming to need pretty much every inch of the trip to just get up by a beck late on, which suggests a similar run over this extra yardage should suit her a little better. She's already won three of her four starts here and has won under today's jockey.

She's trained by Iain Jardine, who has been very successful/profitable over the last couple of years and since the start of 2015, 72 of his 493 runners (14.6% SR) have been winners, generating some 264.1pts of level stakes profits at an ROI of 53.6% with the following at play today...

  • handicappers are 58/381 (15.2%) for 290.6pts (+76.3%)
  • Class 5 runners are 24/154 (15.6%) for 82.7pts (+53.7%)
  • Class 5 handicappers are 24/154 (15.6%) for 82.7pts (+53.7%)
  • on the A/W : 10/79 (12.7%) for 69pts (+87.4%)
  • in A/W handicaps : 10/73 (13.7%) for 75pts (+102.8%)
  • LTO winners are 21/62 (33.9%) for 47.5pts (+76.6%)
  • LTO winners in a handicap are 18/55 (32.7%) for 42.3pts (+76.9%)
  • over 7f : 4/26 (15.4%) for 21.7pts (+83.6%)
  • in Class 5 A/W handicaps : 5/23 (21.7%) for 49pts (+212.8%)
  • and LTO winners now running in Class 5 handicaps are 6/19 (31.6%) for 4.92pts (+25.9%)

...leading to...a 1pt win bet on Savannah Beau at 3/1 BOG , which was widely available at 8.50pm on Sunday but I've gone with Bet365, as I tend to. To see your preferred bookies' odds, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.50 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

Stat of the Day, 28th November 2016

Saturday's Result :

6.15 Wolverhampton : Commanche @ 5/1 BOG 4th at 7/2 (Close up, led over 4f out, ridden over 1f out, headed 1f out, no extra)

Monday's pick goes in the...

3.50 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Savannah Beau @ 3/1 BOG

Why?

She won here over 6 furlongs last time oput, when seeming to need pretty much every inch of the trip to just get up by a beck late on, which suggests a similar run over this extra yardage should suit her a little better. She's already won three of her four starts here and has won under today's jockey.

She's trained by Iain Jardine, who has been very successful/profitable over the last couple of years and since the start of 2015, 72 of his 493 runners (14.6% SR) have been winners, generating some 264.1pts of level stakes profits at an ROI of 53.6% with the following at play today...

  • handicappers are 58/381 (15.2%) for 290.6pts (+76.3%)
  • Class 5 runners are 24/154 (15.6%) for 82.7pts (+53.7%)
  • Class 5 handicappers are 24/154 (15.6%) for 82.7pts (+53.7%)
  • on the A/W : 10/79 (12.7%) for 69pts (+87.4%)
  • in A/W handicaps : 10/73 (13.7%) for 75pts (+102.8%)
  • LTO winners are 21/62 (33.9%) for 47.5pts (+76.6%)
  • LTO winners in a handicap are 18/55 (32.7%) for 42.3pts (+76.9%)
  • over 7f : 4/26 (15.4%) for 21.7pts (+83.6%)
  • in Class 5 A/W handicaps : 5/23 (21.7%) for 49pts (+212.8%)
  • and LTO winners now running in Class 5 handicaps are 6/19 (31.6%) for 4.92pts (+25.9%)

...leading to...a 1pt win bet on Savannah Beau at 3/1 BOG , which was widely available at 8.50pm on Sunday but I've gone with Bet365, as I tend to. To see your preferred bookies' odds, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.50 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

Stat of the Day, 7th October 2016

Thursday's Result :

3.40 Hereford : Satanic Beat @ 6/1 BOG 3rd at 5/1 (In touch, headway 3 out to chase leaders, ridden in 3rd before last, kept on same pace)

Friday's pick goes in the...

9.10 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Rich Again at 11/2 BOG

Why?

Trainer James Bethell's horses have won 3 of their 7 races over the last fortnight and are 2 from 4 in the last 7 days. His last five runners here at Newcastle have finished 13101 and he'll be confident of extending his record in A/W handicaps which currently stands at 24 winners from 160 (15% SR) for profits of 38.9pts at an ROI of 24.3% since the start of 2010.

Of those 160 runners...

  • those last seen 6-45 days ago are 24/122 (19.7%) for76.9pts (+63.1%)
  • those priced at 9/4 to 10/1 are 19/96 (19.8%) for 40.1pts (+41.7%)
  • on Tapeta : 10/34 (29.4%) for 24.2pts (+71%)
  • those ridden by PJ McDonald are 4/22 (22.2%) for 11.4pts (+63.2%)
  • 7 yr olds are 6/19 (31.6%) for 22.3pts (+117.2%)
  • and here at Newcastle, they are 3/6 (50% SR) for 13.8pts (+230.4% ROI).

And in Rich Again, he has a runner who should be well suited by the job in hand tonight, as he comes here in good nick (1741 in his last 4 runs), having won in this grade over course and distance last time out, 7 days ago.

He's 9 from 29 (31% SR) on the All Weather to date, including the following of relevance tonight...

  • 5/15 (33.3%) at Class 4
  • 3/10 (30%) wearing blinkers
  • 3/9 (33.3%) this year
  • 2/6 (33.3%) over 5f
  • 2/6 (33.3%) i fields of 12-15 runners
  • 2/5 (40%) under PJ McDonald
  • and 1/1 here at Newcastle, courtesy of that C&D win under today's jockey last time out.

...giving rise to...a 1pt win bet on Rich Again at 11/2 BOG, from Betfair Sports, who led the fledgling market at 5.30pm on Thursday, but to see your preferred bookies' odds, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 9.10 Newcastle.

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...