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Stat of the Day, 15th January 2019

Monday's Pick was...

4.00 Fontwell : Sky Full of Stars @ 9/2 BOG WON at 10/3 (Chased leaders, 2nd before 4 out, led before next, driven out)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

3.20 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Mumgos Debut @ 5/2 BOG

...in a 5-runner, Class 4, 5yo+ Handicap Chase over 2m½f on Good To Soft ground worth £4614 to the winner...

Why?

A little shorter in price than I normally aim at, but only five runners are set to go to post and this one comes here off the back of a win at Ayr on soft ground 13 days ago. Now running at the same class and trip off the same mark (105) and under the same jockey (Derek Fox), I see no reason why he wouldn't be involved in the shake-up once again.

His record in handicap chases stands at 6 from 29 (20.7% SR) for 9.78pts (+33.7% ROI) profit and here are some of the ways (all relevant today), he got those wins...

  • all 6 came from 24 (25%) runs wearing a tongue tie for 14.78pts (+61.6%)
  • 5/19 (26.3%) for 17.11pts (+90.1%) off a mark (OR) greater than 95
  • 4/13 (30.8%) for 15.16pts (+116.6%) after less than 3 weeks rest
  • 4/20 (20%) for 8.08pts (+40.4%) at Class 4
  • 3/5 (60%) for 3.42pts (+68.4%) when sent off as favourite
  • 3/11 (27.3%) for 2.28pts (+20.7%) under Derek Fox
  • 2/2 (100%) for 15.47pts (+773.5%) on Good to Soft ground
  • and 2/10 920%) for 1.64pts (+16.4%) over this 2m½f trip

In addition to these stats, his form in 5 runs here at Newcastle reads 22221 and from the above... at Class 4 off a mark north of 95 wearing a tongue tie with less than 3 weeks rest = 2 from 4 (50% SR) for 13.47pts (+336.% ROI).

Over the last 9 months, his trainer Lucinda Russell has had 6 winners from 16 (37.5% SR) on the NH track here at Newcastle and these have generated 11.64pts profit at an ROI of 72.8%, including the following of note today...

  • in handicaps : 5/14 (35.7%) for 10.99pts (+78.5%)
  • males : 5/13 (38.5%) for 12.03pts (+92.5%)
  • prizes of £4k-£8k : 5/13 (38.5%) for 11.39pts (+87.6%)
  • shorter than 13/2 SP : 6/11 (54.5%) for 16.64pts (+151.3%)
  • Class 4 : 3/7 (42.9%) for 11.35pts (+162.2%)
  • Derek Fox : 4/6 (66.6%) for 15.59pts (+259.9%)
  • and over this 2m½f trip : 2/5 (40%) for 10.7pts (+214%)

...whilst from the above... male handicappers sent off at 6/1 and shorter tilting at a prize of £4k to £8k are 3/6 (50% SR) for 13.13pts (+218.9% ROI), from which they are 2/4 at Class 4, 2/3 under Derek Fox, 2/3 over this 2m½f trip and 2 from 2 under the jockey/class/distance combo!

And finally (!) for today, it's worth noting that in UK Class 4 handicap chases over 2m/2m½f on good to soft ground since 2014 (definitely a niche angle!), males running at the same class as an LTO hcp chase win in the previous 3 weeks are 9 from 19 (47.4% SR) for 22.5pts (+118.6% ROI)...

...giving us a 1pt win bet on Mumgos Debut @ 5/2 BOG as was offered by Betfair and Paddy Power at 5.40pm on Monday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.20 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 12th January 2019

Friday's Pick was...

7.45 Wolverhampton : A Sure Welcome @ 7/2 BOG WON at 7/1 (Chased leader, ridden and ran on to lead well inside final furlong, winning by a nose)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

6.30 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Athollblair Boy @ 3/1 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ A/W Handicap over 6f on tapeta worth £3752 to the winner...

Why?

Firstly, a warning...this 6 yr old is hardly prolific at 4 from 38 and without a win in his last 8 outings, so why would he now make it 5 from 39?

Well, that last win was a Class 4 C&D contest when he won off today's mark of 76 back in March of last year and he showed signs of a return to form in another C4 C&D contest last time out, when 3rd under today's jockey 10 days ago, just 2 necks behind the winner and course specialist Nick Vedder in a tight finish and he now takes a drop in class.

And whilst he is admittedly 4 from 38, that doesn't tell the whole story, as he has 3 wins and 6 places from just 13 runs on the tapeta here at Newcastle, including 2 wins and 3 places from over the 6f course and distance and he's 2 from 2 after less than 2 weeks rest here.

That's possibly not enough data to convince you yet, so like A Sure Welcome yesterday, this one comes from a sire whose progeny excel on this surface. Basically offspring of the sire Frozen Power are 25/127 (19.7% SR) for 71.6pts (+56.3% ROI) over 5 to 8.5 furlongs on tapeta and these include of relevance today...

  • in fields of at least 7 runners : 24/121 (19.8%) for 74.7pts (+61.7%)
  • for prizes below £4k : 22/100 (22%) for 86.4pts (+86.4%)
  • 4-45 days since last run : 21/98 (21.4%) for 75.7pts (+77.3%)
  • in handicaps : 18/95 (19%) for 68.7pts (+72.3%)
  • off a mark of 56-79 : 18/78 (23.1%) for 85.3pts (+109.4%)
  • at evens to 8/1 : 23/69 (33.3%) for 53.5pts (+77.5%)
  • beaten by 0.25 to 4 lengths LTO : 10/37 (27%) for 25.7pts (+69.5%)
  • and 4-10 dslr : 8/22 (36.4%) for 8.24pts (+37.5%)

...from which... in handicap fields of 7 or more runners competing  for less than £4k off a mark of 56 or higher at odds of evens to 8/1 some 4 to 45 days after their last run = 12 from 34 (35.3% SR) for 33pts (+97.1% ROI), including 4 winners from (44.4%) for 8.78pts (+97.5%) with no more than 10 days rest.

Another positive is the fact that over the last two years, trainer Nigel Tinkler's Flat/AW handicappers dropping down a grade are 20 from 84 (23.8% SR) for 48.8pts (+58.1% ROI), including...

  • within 30 days of last run : 19/67 (28.4%) for 62.8pts (+93.7%)
  • sub-12/1 runners are 19/57 (33.3%) for 57.6pts (+101.1%)
  • OR 56-79 : 16/48 (3.3%) for 66.9pts (+139.3%)
  • 6/7 furlongs : 12/38 (31.6%) for 47.3pts (+124.5%)
  • 6 furlongs : 9/29 (31%) for 33.6pts (+115.8%)
  • 2nd to 4th LTO : 10/24 (41.7%) for 33.9pts (+141%)
  • beaten by more than a neck but less than 3L LTO : 6/16 (37.5%) for 16.59pts (+103.6%)
  • on tapeta : 4/13 (30.8%) for 4.92pts (+37.8%)
  • Class 5 : 5/12 (41.7%) for 11.25pts (+93.8%)
  • and here at Newcastle : 3/12 (25%) for 4.02pts (+33.5%)

...and from that little lot...over 5f to 1m off OR of 56-79 @ sub-12/1 odds within 30 days of last run = 12/25 (48% SR) for 48.38pts (+193.5% ROI) and this includes 8 winners from 12 (66.6%) for 24.13pts (+201.1%) from those with a top 4 finish last time out...

...pointing to a 1pt win bet on Athollblair Boy @ 3/1 BOG as was offered by a half dozen or so firms at 6.35pm on Friday evening, although those with an unrestricted SkyBet account could get an extra third of a point if they were lucky/quick. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 6.30 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Newcastle Punting Pointers: The Angles of the North?

In my last article I accidentally stumbled into unpicking all-weather course form and the relative importance of it at each track in the UK, writes Jon Shenton.  It wasn’t my intention to evaluate anything in that area; however, when exploring a vast ocean of data sometimes you end up going where the wind takes you as thoughts develop around the words and numbers on paper.

If you didn’t read that article (link here), a tentative conclusion was that a previous course win was more indicative of a likely follow up victory at Newcastle than any other all-weather surface.

Until that moment I had very limited interest in the tapeta at Gosforth Park as a vehicle for punting. Aside from the odd evening “leisure” bet, almost universally doomed to failure, I’ve hitherto watched perplexed from afar.

To my untrained eye the victors seemed to be pattern-less in terms of my usual all weather starting points of pace and draw, the immaturity of the surface also meaning data regarding trainer, sire and anything else you can think of is less reliable from which to build even vague conclusions.

So, when the intel from that last article showed Newcastle in a favourable light it got me thinking: it was time to have a proper delve into the delights of the northeast venue.

There is a uniqueness regarding Newcastle compared with its AW cousins. Namely, that it has a straight mile. Apart from Newcastle’s five to eight-furlong and Southwell’s five furlong straight track all other races on AW in Britain and Ireland are contested around a bend.   This could be of potential interest for a number of reasons. As I’ve already alluded to, the usual staples of pace and draw could be less important without a turn than we see at other AW venues?

 

Why could pace and draw be less relevant at the Newcastle straight track?

To start with, on a straight track all of the horses compete over exactly the same distance.  This is not the case when racing around a bend where inside draws have a shorter distance to run.

Imagine an Olympic 200m final around a tight bend where all athletes start at the same point.  Not even a peak Usain Bolt content on fried chicken could overcome a lane 8 / car park draw unless he was running against people like me.

As well as the emphasis of draw on a turning track the AW tracks typically are tight in nature, with shortish home straights. This often leads to greater extremes of front runner bias. Thus finding a competitive front running animal with an inside draw on the AW is usually a compelling wagering proposition.

All of this points to Newcastle being a fairer test over the straight track than the other artificial surfaces racing around a turn. Fairer for the runners and riders, but trickier for punters?

Could it be that factors such as course form, pedigree or trainer angles play a more significant part in determining the outcome of a race? That’s all supposition at the moment, but let’s dive into it.

A continuation of the course form theme seems like as good a place to start as anywhere.

 

Course Form at Newcastle

A quick refresher, the graph below is from the previous article, it shows the adjusted strike rates at UK all-weather courses split by horses’ number of previous wins at the same track.  The adjusted view was to reflect/standardise the effect of different field sizes. In other words, a race at Newcastle should be harder to win as the average number of runners is 10.9 whilst at Chelmsford it’s a more meagre 9.05.

 

 

The green line to a clear degree illustrates that Newcastle previous winners have a higher probability of a future win than course winners at other AW tracks.

By adopting the same method but splitting the Newcastle races by straight/round track performance we hopefully will find something of interest. Firstly, we need to take field sizes into account.  Straight track races are popular with an average of 11.28 entrants per event, 1.11 more than the round track average field size of 10.17.

 

NEWCASTLE Avg Field Multiplier
5-8F STRAIGHT 11.28 1.16
8.5F+ ROUND 10.17 1.05
OVERALL 10.90 1.12

 

Using the same format, the graph below shows the profile of previous course winners’ strike rates by distance of race.

 

 

I think this is quite insightful.  There appears to be an indication that previous course form is more valuable in predicting a winner over the straight track of 5 to 8 furlongs, than it is over the longer trip.

Now the volume of runners is quite small, particularly on the round course where two or more previous course wins are concerned but there is definitely enough to upgrade a previous course win on the straight track in comparison.

 

Pace on the straight track

Lesson number 1 in Geegeez.co.uk land is that pace is a game changer in punting life.  It’s certainly been a key component in my improvement in race reading and is just about the first thing I look at when trying to evaluate any equine contest.

We’ve already generated the supposition that front running pace bias may not be as important at Newcastle as it is on the other UK all-weather tracks due to the fairer nature of the straight; but do the numbers back that up?

 

Well, yes. The above chart is eye-opening. It illustrates the Actual/Expected performance by pace score for each of the all-weather tracks in the UK. The data covers all 3YO+ and 4YO+ handicaps and all races up to 8f in distance.

Your first 30 days for just £1

You can see the old adage of “pace wins the race” is pronounced across all of the tracks apart from Newcastle.

The blob annotated with “a” above shows the fate of hold up horses on the straight track at Newcastle. There is clear daylight between their performances when compared with late runners at every other track. In fact, horses that are held up actually fare well even in comparison to their front running rivals at the track. Certainly, trailblazers are not the be all and end all that they can be on some tracks, as the blob “b” illustrates.  Both front runners and hold up horses have an identical A/E performance of 0.99.

Lumping in all races from the minimum trip to the mile is potentially dangerous and clearly analysis by specific trip length may lead to slightly different and more solid conclusions.  However, in terms of proving a point that race profiles are different on the straight Newcastle track to the typical AW ones I think this does enough. The bottom line is don’t be put off by a horse stalking from the back of the pack at Gosforth Park.

 

Draw

Hopefully it’s reasonably understandable but evaluating full draw implications of a straight vs. round track is a tough ask for an article of this length given the variables in distance, race type, number of runners and the like.

That said, by way of a quick guide, below is a broad-brush summary of Newcastle draw performance.  It only considers handicap races of 10-12 runners.  It’s also important to note I’m using actual draw position (i.e. accounting for non-runners), not racecard draw number.

 

 

What does the above tell us? In truth, not a great deal! Maybe, just maybe, there is a hint of bias towards the wings of the track, especially for races over 5, 6 and 8 furlongs. Sometimes this makes sense as races develop against a rail and perhaps that is what is at play here.  But… for no obvious reason the 7f distance contradicts other distance data by suggesting there is a hint of middle track bias. In conclusion, it’s all pretty marginal and if you find the right horse, with the right profile, the draw at this course appears to be less relevant than most in terms of stall position.

 

Sires

It’s quite early to draw meaningful conclusions on stallions to follow at Newcastle but the below table shows some potentially emerging talent.

It’s derived from geegeez.co.uk’s Query Tool and illustrates all runners at 20/1 or less; and to qualify for the table an A/E of 1.25 is required, as well as a 10% ROI.

 

The volumes are generally too thin to draw firm conclusions and build bankable, watertight angles, especially as some of the performance will be driven by individual animals repeatedly winning. Even so, it’s a good list to keep in mind to help generate a shortlist when evaluating a race, particularly when form, or course form, is at a premium.

There is merit in just pulling out a couple to discuss briefly. The most successful couple of sires on the Newcastle all weather, in terms of winner numbers, are the renowned Sea The Stars and the progressive Lope De Vega.

 

Sea The Stars

Firstly, Sea The Stars… His progeny’s 15 wins are comprised of 13 individual horses.   John Gosden’s Champion Stayer, Stradivarius, is the most illustrious, having recorded his first success (on his third run) at Newcastle, over the straight mile. That is the very same course and distance that stablemate Enable made her debut on, incidentally. Clearly, Johnny G likes to blood a top class type on the tapeta here.

In fact, it’s not uncommon for horses of real quality to get an early spin on the Gosforth Park sands. The apparent level playing field of the track is a feature which attracts some of the elite stables to test their youngsters at a formative stage of their careers.

Reverting to Sea The Stars, below shows his progeny runs by race code.

 

Not bad all round but there is a clear distinction between AW and Turf data. If we zoom in a little further and evaluate the performance by the UK’s different AW venues, we get the following.

 

Here we see that Newcastle is driving the superb AW performance. Yes, Southwell, Chelmsford and Lingfield all show promise and we should take note of the offspring of Sea The Stars when they run at those venues. But Newcastle is where it’s at.

 

Lope De Vega

Lope De Vega was campaigned exclusively in France under the tutelage of Andre Fabre and doesn’t on the face of it have a particularly strong all-weather pedigree. However, much like Sea The Stars, his progeny has performed generally better on the artificial surfaces, in win strike rate and profit/loss terms at least.

Newcastle performance is strong (see the table below), but so too are Chelmsford and Wolverhampton. The surface at the midlands track is also Tapeta so that makes some sort of sense (albeit that it was polytrack until 2014). If you delve into sire records, quite frequently a good Newcastle record can be indicative of a better than average Wolves one and vice versa. The Chelmsford one is harder to explain, though it may be simply that Lope De Vega is a top class sire all round.

 

 

If we take that trio of courses and check P&L performance over different trips, we can see below that Lope De Vega offspring are less productive over 5 and 6 furlongs than other distances.

 

 

So, I think we have a potentially nice micro here: Lope De Vega progeny, 20/1 or shorter, 7-14f at Chelmsford, Wolves or Newcastle. 27.6% strike rate, 52% ROI to level stakes with strong A/E and IV numbers. The table below shows the precise numbers.

All Lope De Vega at 20/1 or less, 7-14f at Chelmsford/Wolves/Newcastle:

 

Trainers

A final word on the trainers who have taken to Newcastle’s newish surface, the above table shows those yards who have had 25+ runs, an A/E of 1.00 or above and an ROI of 10%+.

 

Before I talk about the table a couple of mentions for trainers not on the list. As stated earlier a number of elite trainers use Newcastle as a proving ground for their potential stable stars. John Gosden has had 75 runners (at 20/1 or less) including Enable, Without Parole and Stradivarius. Sadly though, and for obvious reasons, these are all quite well found in the market. Hugo Palmer is another who is inclined to send runners north as part of their education and development, but without profitable import for punters.

To those actually in the table, where there is a mix of northern track specialists and selective southern raiders. Sir Mark Prescott and William Haggas both clearly send animals up to the north-east that have a fair chance, and it is somewhat surprising to see these practitioners showing a level stakes profit. Moreover, as their strike rates at 31% and 38%, and related Impact Value numbers of 3.02 and 3.53, demonstrate, they’ll keep you in the game more readily than most.

The more local names of Menzies, Tate, Whitaker, Bethell and so on are all worth tagging too, although with only a handful of winners I wouldn’t necessarily generate micro angles to follow until there is a greater body of evidence.

Good luck, thanks for reading, and a happy new year to you all.

 - Jon Shenton

Stat of the Day, 2nd January 2019

Tuesday's Pick was...

2.15 Musselburgh : Chica Buena @ 4/1 BOG 2nd at 5/2 (Tracked leaders, challenged inside 3 out, every chance when short of room approaching next, led last, headed flat, kept on)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

6.15 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Chosen World @ 7/2 BOG

...in a 7-runner, Class 5, Handicap over 7f  worth £3752 to the winner...

Why?

Matt stepping in for Chris for one day only, and I'm taking a chance in what is a very competitive race. The horse in question is Chosen World, a winner of his last two over course and distance, so no worries on that score. He's up four for his most recent win but stays in Class 5 and has a progressive look to his profile (just 11 career starts to date). But what about the stats?

His dad, Intikhab, has a fine record with handicap sprinters. Specifically, in the last two years, he's 16/103 (16 further places) for +36.38 (AE 1.41).

With All Weather sprint handicappers, he's 7/38 (+12.38, AE 1.43) and with Newcastle sprint handicappers he's three from nine, three further places (+17.25, AE 2.03)

Of course, that final stat is heavily influenced by Chosen World's two recent CD victories; so let's add some further ballast to the selection's case:

Trainer Julie Camacho and jockey Conor McGovern are both solid exponents of their craft and, when teaming up here in the past year, they've shared success on four occasions (from 15 starts, +12.25, AE 2.19).

Camacho is adept at racking up sequences with horses, as her last time out strike rate attests. She's won 8 from 38 with LTO winners in the last two years (+10.00, AE 1.14) and she also has a positive expectation with sprinters (40/245 in the last 2 years, +2.75, AE 1.17). In all weather sprints, she's 16/101 (+20.25, AE 1.18). And her Newcastle record in the past year is 8/41 (+13/25, AE 1.21).

To the horse. Chosen World is two from four over the course and two from three over course and distance, Newcastle's straight seven furlongs being something of a specialist piste. And he's unbeaten in two since the deployment of cheek pieces; that kit is unsurprisingly retained here.

Despite the tight look to this race, then, the above conspires to give us...

... a 1pt win bet on Chosen World @ 7/2 BOG as was available from Skybet, Unibet & Hills (4/1 with Betbright if you can get it) at 7.10pm on Tuesday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 6.15 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 19th December 2018

Tuesday's Pick was...

2.00 Southwell : Tan @ 4/1 BOG 3rd at 13/8 (Pulled hard tracking leader, effort over 1f out, faded final furlong but beaten by less than 1.75 lengths)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

5.05 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Rich Approach @ 7/2 BOG

...in a 10-runner, Class 6, A/W Nursery for 2yo over 6f on Tapeta worth £3105 to the winner...

Why?

This 2 yr old gelding is making just his fifth start, but comes here off the back of an LTO win 21 days ago, when landing a similar C6, 6f Nursery on Tapeta (Wolverhampton), when partnered by today's jockey, Josephine Gordon, for the first time.

Josephine gets more than her fair share of winners here at Newcastle with a ratio better than 1 in 6 at 17.7% thanks to 26 winners from 147 rides, including 4 from 12 (33.3% SR) for 3.69pts (+30.8% ROI) on trainer James Bethell's horses.

The horse/trainer was then of further interest to me, having appeared twice in my daily QT Report, under the loose titles of A/W Sprints and Newcastle A/W HC with James Bethell being a featured trainer on both angles, so let's take a quick look at each in turn, shall we?

Starting with A/W Sprints...

Here we have J. Bethell + UK A/W Hcps + 5-6 f + Sub-9/1 + 2015-18 = 9/25 (36% SR) for 30.53pts (+122.1%) including the following of relevance today...

  • 11-30 dslr : 8/21 (38.1%) for 28.02pts (+133.4%)
  • Tapeta : 9/19 (47.4%) for 36.53pts (+192.3%)
  • Sept-Feb : 8/14 (57.1%) for 36.64pts (+261.7%)
  • 6f : 4/12 (33.3%) for 8.28pts (+69%)
  • Newcastle : 4/10 (40%) for 21.11pts (+211.1%)
  • LTO winners : 3/7 (42.9%) for 5.92pts (+84.5%)
  • Josephine Gordon : 2/3 (66.6%) for 11.54pts (+384.7%)
  • 2yr olds : 1/2 (50%) for 4.51pts (+225.5%)
  • and Class 6 : also 1/2 (50%) for 4.51pts (+225.5%)

Please Note : Don't add an odds filter into your Queries if you want future qualifiers to be flagged up, as SPs are only known after a race and can't be predicted.

And the Newcastle A/W HC angle?

J. Bethell + 12/1 and shorter = 15/60 (25% SR) for 41.8pts (+69.7% ROI) with the following at play today...

  • males : 12/43 (27.9%) for 32.5pts (+75.5%)
  • evening/late afternoon meetings : 9/35 (25.7%) for 28.5pts (+81.4%)
  • ran in last three weeks : 9/25 (36%) for 39.94pts (+159.7%)
  • 5-7 f : 8/23 (34.8%) for 38.23pts (+166.2%)
  • J Gordon : 4/10 (40%) for 5.69pts (+56.9%)
  • and Class 6 : 2/10 (20%) for 8.29pts (+82.9%)

...from which...males racing over 5-7 furlongs in evening/late afternoon meetings with no more than three weeks rest are 4 from 10 (40% SR) for 10.41pts (+104.1% ROI) with Josephine Gordon having a 1 from 1 record having ridden Mudawwan to victory at 12/1 here in late September...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Rich Approach @ 7/2 BOG, as offered by half a dozen or so firms at 5.40pm on Tuesday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 5.05 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 15th December 2018

Friday's Pick was...

2.30 Cheltenham : Rock The Kasbah @ 11/2 BOG 6th at 4/1 (Pressed leader until 10th, mistake 18th, weakened after 3 out)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

4.20 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Another Angel @ 11/4 BOG

...in a 14-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap  for 3yo+ over 5f on Tapeta worth £3493 to the winner...

Why?

Five of the last six runs for this 4 yr old gelding have been here on the 5f tapeta strip at Newcastle and he has finished 11221 in those contests with the latest course and distance success coming 10 days ago under today's jockey Cameron Hardie who has 2 wins and 2 places from 4 rides of the five above, whilst the horse is 3/3 at Class 6 in those same five C&D runs.

As well as being in excellent form, this multiple C&D winner (see your horses for courses report) was flagged up in one of my saved systems, namely...

...2013-18 / Class 4-6 / LTO winners at 6-4 to 16-1 by a head or more / now running at same class as a C&D win in the past 10 days...

Such runners are 190/551 (34.5% SR) and have generated 112.4pts at an ROI of 20.4% backed blindly, from which...

  • Same C&D as LTO : 186/539 (34.5%) for 107.7pts (+20%)
  • in handicaps : 180/525 (34.3%) for 100.9pts (+19.2%)
  • those sent off shorter than 7/1 are 186/498 (37.4%) for 123.6pts (+24.8%)
  • males are 148/427 (34.7%) for 93.5pts (+21.9%)
  • at Class 6 : 97/296 (32.8%) for 34.2pts (+11.6%)
  • on the A/W : 102/292 (34.9%) for 60pts (+20.5%)
  • over the minimum 5f trip : 24/72 (33.3%) for 28.5pts (+39.6%)
  • and here at Newcastle : 8/20 (40%) for 5.9pts (+29.5%)

...and a composite based on the above? 

...in handicaps over same course, distance and class with males shorter than 7/1 at Class 5&6 =  110/291 (37.8% SR) for 73.3pts (+25.2% ROI)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Another Angel @ 11/4 BOG, as offered by Skybet & 10Bet at 5.50pm on Friday evening, although those with the option to do so, could take 10/3 BOG from Bet365. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.20 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 3rd October 2018

Tuesday's Pick was...

2.00 Sedgefield : Compatriot @ 11/4 BOG 4th at 9/4 (Mid-division, slow and lost place 4th, soon niggled along, closed after omitted 3 out, one pace and beaten 2 out, left 4th last) 

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

8.30 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Another Angel @ 7/2 or 10/3 BOG  

In a 14-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 5f on Tapeta, worth £3105 to the winner... 

Why?

A 4 yr old gelding who won over course and distance in a similar Class 6 contest here just five days ago making all : a tactic that works well here at Newcastle over 5f, so I'm hoping the same approach is taken again this evening.

Trainer Antony Brittain's runners turned back out within a week of their last run are 10 from 43 (23.3% SR) for 34.6pts (+80.5% ROI) since the start of last year, from which...

  • handicappers are 10/41 (24.4%) for 36.6pts (+89.3%)
  • males are 10/32 (31.25%) for 45.6pts (+142.5%)
  • over trips of 5 to 7 f : 7/28 (25%) for 22.1pts (+79%)
  • at Class 6 : 9/25 (36%) for 40.8pts (+163.4%)
  • on the A/W : 7/21 (33.3%) for 36.4pts (+173.5%)
  • over 5f : 3/13 (23.1%) for 5.16pts (+39.7%)
  • here at Newcastle : 3/6 (50%) for 13.7pts (+227.9%)
  • and LTO winners are 2/4 (50%) for 6pts (+150%)

AND...from the above...male Class 6 A/W handicappers are 7 from 13 (53.9% SR) for 44.4pts (+341.7%) and these include...

  • at 5f to a mile : 6/10 (60%) for 29.9pts (+299%)
  • at Newcastle : 3/5 (60%) for 14.7pts (+294%)
  • over 5f : 2/4 (50%) for 2.4pts (+60%)
  • and LTO winners are 2/2 (100%) for 8pts (+400%)

...whilst more generally since 2013 in Class 5/6 A/W handicaps, horses who were winners at the same class, course and distance by up to 15 lengths at odds of 6/4 to 16/1 within the previous 10 days = 89 from 250 (35.6% SR) for 47pts (+18.8% ROI) : an angle you might want to store.

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Another Angel @ 7/2 or 10/3 BOG  , a price offered by Bet365  & Sky Bet at 5.00pm & 5.30pm on Tuesday evening (I'll be declaring to 10/3, although 7/2 was available at 8.30am on race day). To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 8.30 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 21st September 2018

Thursday's Pick was...

3.15 Pontefract : Mulligatawny @ 5/1 BOG 2nd at 11/2 (Led, strongly challenged over 1f out, headed inside final furlong, kept on under pressure but beaten by stablemate by 0.5 length) basically right trainer, wrong horse : nice 40/1 exacta for someone!

Friday's pick runs in the...

8.50 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Windforpower @ 9/2 BOG  

In a 14-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 5f on Tapeta, worth £3105 to the winner...

Why?

In line with the rest of the week so far, I'm playing it simple again today. Here we've got a likeable 8 yr old gelding that I fancied to do well in this race even before I dug the numbers out. I knew he had a good record over this track/trip and was possibly a little unlucky to be beaten by a neck last time out. These factors allied to what seemed a generous opening show from the bookies made the final decision quite easy.

So, back to 18 days ago, when he was headed late on over this course and distance at 11/1, conceding a stone to the 3/1 favourite who just pipped him, so no disgrace there and there's the possibility that a third run inside 8 days was just too much in the end and he should be fresher today.

But what stats do I have to back up a fancy?

Well, with a career of 135 races behind him so far, he's hardly unexposed, but he does well in certain conditions, especially those prevalent today. Of those 135 prior engagement, his record on the All-Weather is excellent with 10 wins from 47 (21.3% SR) for a modest 2.14pts (+4.55% ROI) profit, as he does tend to get backed and here is how he scored those 10 A/W wins, based on today's conditions, of course...

  • 10 came from 33 races (30.3%) over the 5f trip for profits of 16.14pts (+48.9%)
  • 9 from 22 (40.9%) when sent off at 6/1 or shorter for 16.93pts (+77%)
  • 8 from 17 (47.1%) when 2nd or 3rd LTO for 17.36pts (+102.1%)
  • 7 from 34 (20.6%) in handicaps for 8.68pts (+25.5%)
  • 7 from 29 (24.1%) at Class 6 for 6.44pts (+22.2%)
  • 5 from 27 (18.5%) on a straight track for 3.53pts (+13.1%)
  • 5 from 26 (19.2%) here on the Tapeta at Newcastle for 4.53pts (+17.4%)
  • 5 from 23 (21.7%) over today's course and distance for 7.53pts (+32.7%)
  • 5 from 20 (25%) when running off a mark (OR) of 50-60 for 10.53pts (+52.7%)
  • 5 from 19 (26.3%) at the age of 7/8 for 11.53pts (+60.7%)
  • 5 from 9 (55.6%) when a runner-up LTO for 12.23pts (+135.8%)
  • 4 from 14 (28.6%) wearing a visor for 11.42pts (+81.6%)
  • 4 from 12 (33.3%) coming off a break of 16-45 days for 6.21pts (+51.8%)
  • 4 from 5 (80%) when only beaten by 0.25 to 1 length LTO for 15.78pts (+315.5%)

...OR...you could just back him on the A/W over the minimum 5f at SPs of 6/1 or shorter after a top 3 finish LTO : this would have given you 9 winners from 10 (90% SR : the loser was third, beaten by just half a length!) for a profit of some 28.93pts at an ROI of 289.3%!

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Windforpower @ 9/2 BOG, a price offered by Bet365 at 5.10pm on Thursday evening, the first firm to break cover, whilst I'll be using SkyBet's 4/1 BOG should it be a winner. To see what your preferred bookie will give you later...

...click here for the betting on the 8.50 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Friday 29th June

NEWMARKET (JULY COURSE) – JUNE 29

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £235.80 (6 favourites: 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 63.6% units went through – 5/1 – 2/1* - 9/1

Race 2: 46.5% of the remaining units when through – 13/8* & 11/2

Race 3: 51.7% of the remaining units went through – 13/2 – 7/2 – 10/1 (9/4)

Race 4: 23.0% of the remaining units went through – 9/2 & 7/1 (11/8)

Race 5: 44.0% of the remaining units went through – 6/4* (Win only)

Race 6: 19.9% of the units secured the dividend – 4/1 & 10/3 (15/8)

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Newmarket: 

Leg 1 (5.35): 1 (Marilyn), 2 (Pour La Victoire) & 7 (Garth Rocket)

Leg 2 (6.10): 4 (Lover’s Knot) & 7 (Rollicking)

Leg 3 (6.45): 6 (Nicklaus), 2 (Rogue) & 4 (Kakhoor)

Leg 4 (7.20): 4 (Midnight Blue), 2 (Pippin) & 3 (Poetic Steps)

Leg 5 (7.55): 4 (Gorgeous Noora) & 1 (Tirania)

Leg 6 (8.30): 7 (Know Your Limit), 9 (Breath Caught) & 2 (Capton)

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Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

5.35: The twelve winners of the opening race have scored at 10/1-9/1-9/1-8/1-8/1-8/1-7/1-6/1-11/2-5/1-5/1-7/2-9/4** to date, whilst 20 of the 38 horses (53%) to have claimed Placepot positions have started at 7/1 or more.  The stats suggest that you should treat this opening race with caution and perhaps only become financially involved via our favourite wager, leaving others to invest from a win perspective.  The last ten winners (and twelve of the thirteen in total) have carried a minimum burden of 8-10 whereby my trio against the other five contenders consists of POUR LA VICTOIRE, MARILYN and GARTH ROCKET.  Out of interest, four-year-olds have won five of the last nine renewals with MARILYN fancied to carry on the good work on behalf of the vintage.  Whatever happens in the race, the trade press quote of the recent course winner POUR LA VICTOIRE was well wide of the mark at 9/2.  5/2 could be nearer the mark if current overnight support is sustained.

Favourite factor: Eight of the fourteen market leaders have secured Placepot positions to date.  Successful favourites from a win perspective had been conspicuous only by their absence until four years ago, when the 9/4 joint favourites filled the 'short field' frame.  That said, three subsequent results have reverted to type. New readers might like to know that the term 'short field' relates to races for 5/6/7 runners in which only the first two horses home qualify for each way/toteplacepot positions, especially if a non-runner rears its ugly head to deny us a ‘dead eight’ event.

Record of the course winner in the opening race:

1/1—Pour La Victoire (good to firm)

 

6.10: There is plenty of (realistic) money in the positive queue for Richard Hannon’s Holy Roman Emperor filly ROLLICKING at the time of writing, despite the fact that LOVER’S KNOT comes to the gig with a good reputation from the guys and gals down on Charlie Appleby’s estate.  The latter named Invincible Spirit filly is a half-sister to Key Victory who won on his only start as a juvenile, whilst Rollocking kept on well for pressure behind New Winds recently.  It’s difficult to envisage both of these horses finishing out of the frame in this grade/company.

Favourite factor: Two of the three market leaders have claimed Placepot positions by winning the two renewals to date.

 

6.45: All ten winners during the last decade have carried a minimum burden of 9-3 which eliminates just the one runner in the list unfortunately. I find it more than a little surprising that the analysis written by the trade press reporter mentions four horses in the race without including NICKLAUS who is the first name on my Placepot team sheet this evening.  William Haggas continues to send out his horses to great effect in all grades of races and this is another inmate which has been supported on the exchanges overnight, which comes as no surprise to yours truly at all.  Connections might have most to fear from ROGUE and FAKHOOR at the business end of proceedings.

Favourite factor: Seven of the last twelve favourites have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include four (7/2-9/4-11/4**-5/2) winners.

 

7.20: Mt Augustus looks weighted out of the equation from my viewpoint in this win only contest, though the other three runners all have claims on the best of their form, thoughts which suggest that the 4/7 quote about MIDNIGHT BLUE in the trade press looks too skinny.  Indeed, Sir Mark Prescott’s projected favourite is not far off the even money mark at the time of writing which if anything, is a little generous!  Whichever way the (betting) wind blows, MIDNIGHT BLUE will be joined by PIPPIN and POETIC STEPS in my Placepot mix.

Favourite factor: The seven favourites to date have secured three Placepot positions to date, statistics which include two (11/8 & 3/1) winners.

 

7.55: TIRANIA is another Haggas representative on the card which is attracting support, with connections probably having most to fear from Luca Cumani’s Raven’s Pass filly GORGEOUS NOORA who was beaten less that two lengths on her seasonal bow.  Looking at the form figures in the race, Magical Dreams can be expected to attract tens of thousands of units but that could be a good reason to swerve James Fanshawe’s raider on this occasion.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Newmarket programme.

Record of the course winner in the fifth event:

2/9—Syrian Pearl (good to firm & good to soft)

 

8.30: Four-year-olds have won five of the last eight renewals and in a fascinating last leg of our favourite wager and KNOW YOUR LIMIT is a sporting selection to extent the vintage trend.  Four of the last six runners sent out by trainer Ed Walker have secured Placepot positions, stats which include two (13/2 & 9/2) winners for good measure.  My trio against the remaining six contenders is complete by BEREATH CAUGHT and CAPTON.

Favourite factor:  All nine winners of the Placepot finale have scored at a top price of 9/1, with two (9/4 & 5/4) favourites having prevailed down the years.

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

1/3—Brorocco (good to firm)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Thursday 28th June

LEICESTER – JUNE 28 

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £443.20 (6 favourites: 2 winners & 4 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 26.9% units went through – 3/1 & 16/1 (5/2)

Race 2: 30.5% of the remaining units when through – 2/1 (Win only – 6/4)

Race 3: 40.6% of the remaining units went through – 7/1 – 7/1 – 7/1 (9/2)

Race 4: 18.0% of the remaining units went through – 10/1 & 4/1 (13/8)

Race 5: 68.8% of the remaining units went through – 13/8* & 9/1

Race 6: 40.1% of the units secured the dividend – 9/4* - 20/1 -12/1

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at Leicester: 

Leg 1 (5.40): 6 (Lexington Place), 5 (Captain Lars) & 2 (Bosham)

Leg 2 (6.10): 2 (Motafaawit) & 3 (Nayef Road)

Leg 3 (6.40): 2 (Poetic Force) & 4 (Boycie)

Leg 4 (7.15): 3 (Trogon), 4 (Bowler Hat) & 1 (Mrs Benson)

Leg 5 (7.50): 5 (Claudine) & 4 (Culdrose)

Leg 6 (8.20): 9 (Edge Of The World), 6 (Daffy Jane) & 5 (Mutabaahy)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

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5.40: Fort those of you that like to look at the corresponding results for last year’s meeting, this card was contested on the Tuesday (27th) of this week twelve months ago. Readers who like to play in running could be interested in this opening race on the card, principally because of the declaration of eleven time winner LEXINGTON PLACE.  Ruth Carr’s eight-year-old course winner is a slow starter in general terms but if breaking on level terms (thereabouts) in this grade/company, win number twelve could well be on the cards.  Have your finger primed on the relevant button because players in running are quick thinkers who jump on an ‘edge’ when it becomes available.  Aside from that scenario, CAPTAIN LARS and BOSHAM will rightly have more than their fair share of supporters.  Last year’s winner Vimy Ridge has already been withdrawn, robbing each way and Placepot players of a third place scenario.

Favourite factor: Only one of the six market leaders has claimed a Placepot position thus far when doing so by winning its relevant event as one of the 11/4 joint favourites four years ago.

Record of the two course winners in the opening event:

1/2—Lexington Place (good to firm)

1/4—David’s Beauty (soft)

 

6.10: Just the four runners go to post for this Novice event which was contested by the same number of entries twelve months ago. MOTAFAAWIT was withdrawn on account of the fast ground at Salisbury yesterday whereby we could land up with just three contenders this evening.  Upwards and onward in positive mode however by suggesting that trainer Richard Hannon might chance his luck here with just three rivals to beat, the pick of which is undoubtedly Mark Johnston’s Nayef Galileo colt NAYEF ROAD, albeit a distance of ground will eventually bring out the best in the late (May) foal.

Favourite factor: Las year’s inaugural 6/4 favourite finished last of the four runners.

 

6.40: We still await the first successful market leader following five renewals, with three winners being returned at 10/1 alongside a pair of 5/1 chances.  Course winners Arrowzone if one of two seven-year-olds in the field, though four-year-olds lead the five-year-old 3-2 in the contest to date.  Those stats bring in the likes of POETIC FORCE and BOYCIE from my viewpoint and this pair are taken against their seven rivals this evening.  The reserve nomination is awarded to Arctic Sea.

Favourite factor: Two of the five market leaders have secured Placepot positions without winning their respective events to date.

Record of the course winner in the third race:

1/1—Arrowzone (soft)

 

7.15: In contrast to the previous event on the card, this race has been great for favourite backers (see relevant stats below), with market leaders coming to the gig on a four-time on this occasion.  Mick Channon has won with his last two runners in the race (stats which include the only 14/1 rogue gold medallist to date), whereby TROGON is the first name on the team sheet, despite the fact that Mick’s gelding remains a maiden after a dozen assignments. BOWLER HAT and MRS BENSON are added into the Placepot equation.

Favourite factor: Five of the nine renewals have been won by market leaders, whilst eight gold medallists were sent off at a top price of 5/2 during the study period.

 

7.50: I opened with these words twelve months ago; “Three-year-olds invariably get the better of their elders in these mixed vintage handicaps, with vintage representatives on offer at 1/2 before the form book is consulted on this occasion.  At first glance, the 5/1 odds marked up in the trade press against the name of Hope Against Hope looks skinny to say the least with 16/1 available in a few places at the time of writing but that said, Mark Johnston’s 50/1 Nursery winner has been trimmed into 12/1 by plenty of firms as I write this column.  It remains to be seen how well the Dark Angel representative runs at the first time of asking this season, though any further support in the lead up to flag fall could be worth heeding”.  Hope Against Hope won by a hard held three lengths when returned at 7/1.  It would be great to call that type of result again a year down the line, though 5/1 is the most you might get about my pair against the field in this potential ‘dead eight’ event, namely CLAUDINE and CULDROSE.  The problem I have at the time of writing, is that I’m finding difficult the spilt the pair in terms of preference.

Favourite factor: Four of the six favourites have claimed Placepot positions thus far via just the four renewals.

Record of the course winner in the fifth contest on the card:

1/5—Zaria (heavy)

 

8.20: Two withdrawals are already in the offing but hopefully there are enough participants to create (at the very least) a ‘dead eight’ finale.  The only course winner EDGE OF THE WORLD is joined in the Placepot mix by DAFFY JANE and MUTABAAHY, though I wouldn’t have a ‘win bet’ with your money.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 5/2 favourite favourite finished nearer last than first when missing out on a Placepot position.

Record of course winner in the Placepot finale:

1/1—Edge Of The World (good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Tuesday 5th June

FONTWELL – JUNE 5

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £22.60 (6 favourites – 4 winners – 1 placed – 1 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 53.6% units went through – 7/2 & 11/4*

Race 2: 73.4% of the remaining units when through – 2/9* (Win only)

Race 3: 94.5% of the remaining units went through – 8/13* & 15/8

Race 4: 51.1% of the remaining units went through – 15/8* & 5/1

Race 5: 27.2% of the remaining units went through – 20/1 & 9/2 (2/1)

Race 6: 62.2% of the units secured the dividend – 4/7* (Win only)

 

Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Fontwell: 

Leg 1 (2.15): 3 (Westerbee) & 2 (Carraigin Aonair)

Leg 2 (2.45): 3 (Diakali) & 1 (Our Three Sons)

Leg 3 (3.15): 2 (Peculiar Places), 1 (Double Treasure) & 3 (Pontresina)

Leg 4 (3.45): 4 (Innocent Girl) & 7 (Brown Bear)

Leg 5 (4.15): 3 (Bagging Turf), 9 (Roparta Avenue) & 1 (Mogestic)

Leg 6 (4.45): 6 (Mason Dixon), 1 (Chantra Rose) & 7 (Findusatgorcombe)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.15: It is not usual to find (respectfully) the name of Seamus Mullins featured in the top ten NH trainers list in terms of the number of winners this season (eight in total), but that is a fact as we contemplate a disappointing day of sport this morning.  Only the race planners will know why we have three NH cards on offer today and none on the flat (turf racing).  Just two horses have been declared in the first race at Bangor and I wonder how many would be entered in a flat (turf) race at Sandown on semi frozen ground in January?  It beggars belief with the bowl out as they say oop north!  Back to Seamus at Fontwell by suggesting this his entry WESTERBEE can go close in a race which should not prove difficult to win.  The ‘dark horse’ in the race is CARRAIGIN AONAIR from the shrewd Olly Murphy yard which knows how to place its horses to winning effect – and then some!

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Favourite factor: The opening race is a new contest on the Fontwell card.

 

2.45: This is not a bad turnout at all, though whether a winner will emerge as Black Corton did last year before setting out a grand sequence of efforts we will have to wait and see.  If that scenario evolves, it would likely stem from a success for DIAKALI who represents ‘local’ trainer Gary Moore.  Richard Johnson takes the ride which is only the fifth time that the champion jockey has ridden for Gary (without a winner) during the last five years.  That said, the partnership has teamed up to winning effect nine times down the years and the booking takes the eye today.  OUR THREE SONS has less to prove and appears to be the main threat.

Favourite factor: Five of the six market leaders have claimed Placepot positions having won their respective events.

 

3.15: Jamie Snowden saddles Our Three Sons in the previous race on the card and the trainer has definite claims here as well, having declared DOUBLE TREASURE to contest a race over timber for the first time in the thick end of two years.  Jamie’s seven-year-old inmate was running of an official mark of 108 in those days which gives him something to find here against the likes of PONTRESINA and (to a fashion) Present Destiny.  That said, Gavin Sheehan’s mount has subsequently improved a great deal though with PECULIAR PLACES having attracted overnight support, we can take nothing for granted in an interesting heat.

Favourite factor: All three (8/13, 4/6 & 15/8) favourites have prevailed thus far.

 

3.45: Seven-year-olds have won three of the last six renewals and lone vintage representative BROWN BEAR brings plenty of fast ground form into the race, whereby Nick Gifford’s local raider looks sure to be there or thereabouts turning for home on the final circuit at this unique venue.  The figure of eight course (steeplechases) is the only track like it in the country, since Windsor ceased its interest in NH racing – wait for it – twenty years ago!  I have a wonderful ‘obituary’ article about the day that Windsor closed its doors on the jump racing scene if you would like to contact me via a direct message on my Twitter page – it is well worth a read. Back to this event by suggesting that INNOCENT GIRL is the threat to the seven-year-old record in the contest.

Favourite factor: Six of the last eight favourites have obliged, though the other two (even money & 2/1) market leaders finished out of the frame during the period.

Record of the two course winners in the fourth contest on the card:

1/1—Innocent Girl (good)

3/9—Brown Bear (2 x good & good to firm)

 

4.15: Seamus Mullins was mentioned positively in despatches earlier and the trainer has another chance on the card with MOGESTIC, though Gary Moore has a potential ‘springer’ in the contest having declared BAGGING TURF with claims on the best of his form from yesteryear.  ROPARTA AVENUE has his ground (his only two victories have been recorded on good going) and can rarely be left out of the equation in this grade/company.

Favourite factor: Three of the five favourites (via four renewals) have secured Placepot positions though that said, three of the four gold medallists were returned at odds of 20/1, 12/1 & 8/1 alongside a successful 5/2 market leader.

Record of the course winner in the field:

1/6—Roparta Avenue (good)

 

4.45: MASON DIXON looks a typical ‘rerouted’ Tim Vaughan raider ready to pounce to winning effect, especially with Richard Johnson having been booked to ride.  There are worse outsiders on the card than FINDUSATGORCOMBE on this ground, whilst CHANTARA ROSE is a definite player with Peter Bowen having saddled four of this last five runners to winning effect.  Peter’s nine-year-old-mate is his only runner until Friday (earliest) this week.

Favourite factor: Six of the eight winners have been sent off at a top price of 7/2, statistics which include four successful market leaders.

Record of the three course winners in the Placepot finale:

2/4—Champagne George (good to soft & soft)

2/7—Lee Side Lady (soft & heavy)

1/1—Findusatgorcombe (good to firm)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Stat of the Day, 5th June 2018

Monday's Runner was...

4.20 Newton Abbot : Global Thrill @ 4/1 BOG non-runner (Self Cert : Coughing)

We continue with Tuesday's...

8.45 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Blazed @ 10/3 or 3/1 BOG 

A 14-runner, Class 5, A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 5f on Tapeta worth £4140 to the winner... 

Why?

This 4 yr old gelding was a winner over this 5f on the tapeta at Wolverhampton in November for former trainer Roger Charlton and has since made the frame over 6f in tougher sprints than this at Kempton and Ascot.

This is just his second start for Ed Vaughan after finishing third at Ascot 24 days ago (Class 4, 6f) despite virtually falling out of the stalls and not quite seeing out the full six.

He drops back in both class and trip to a Class 5 / 5f contest which should suit him better, as should his previous win over this trip on a similar surface at Wolverhampton.

Stat-wise, it's a fairly simplistic approach today, based around backing Ed Vaughan's A/W handicappers who are 31/188 (16.5% SR) for 77.8pts (+41.4% ROI) since the start of 2013 and these runners include the following of relevance today...

  • 20/109 (18.4%) for 63.7pts (+58.4%) from male runners
  • 22/82 (26.8%) for 15.1pts (18.4%) from those sent off at odds of 5/1 and shorter
  • 16/81 (19.8%) for 80.9pts (+99.9%) 21-45 days after their last run
  • 4/22 (18.2%) for 21pts (+95.5%) on tapeta
  • 4/14 (28.6%) for 9.04pts (+64.6%) in June/July
  • and 3/11 (27.3%) for 6.6pts (+60%) ridden by Harry Bentley...

...with males priced at 5/1 and shorter, 21 to 45 days after their last run winning 8 of 27 (29.6% SR) for 15.5pts (+57.3% ROI) profit and this simplified approach...

...gives us...a 1pt win bet on Blazed @ 10/3 or 3/1 BOG  which was available from Bet365 & Betfair/Unibet respectively (I'll use the shorter for my results, of course) at 7.40pm on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 8.45 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Friday 4th May

MUSSELBURGH – MAY 4

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £17.50 (6 favourites: No winners - 5 placed - 1 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 72.7% units went through – 7/2 – 9/4* - 13/2

Race 2: 95.3% of the remaining units when through – 2/1 & 4/6*

Race 3: 80.0% of the remaining units went through – 13/2 – 6/5* - 11/2

Race 4: 60.0% of the remaining units went through – 11/4 & 2/1*

Race 5: 15.3% of the remaining units went through – 6/1 & 14/1 (4/5)

Race 6: 81.8% of the units secured the dividend – 6/1 – 6/4* - 11/2

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Musselburgh: 

Leg 1 (2.10): 1 (Ahlan Bil Emarati), 5 (Josiebond) & 2 (Deep Intrigue)

Leg 2 (2.40): 2 (Rapid Applause), 7 (Lydiate Lady) & 3 (Longroom)

Leg 3 (3.10): 8 (Zoravan), 5 (Crazy Tornado) & 10 (Royal Connoisseur)

Leg 4 (3.40): 1 (Mosalim) & 2 (Tribal Warrior)

Leg 5 (4.10): 5 (Elite Icon), 1 (Four Kingdoms) & 8 (Ravenswood)

Leg 6 (4.40): 1 (Trading Point) & 10 (Al Ozzdi)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.10: AHLAN BIL EMARATI represents Kevin Ryan who has saddled six of his last nine runners to winning effect, whereby it is an unexpected fact to reveal in the dead of night that Kevin’s April foal is on the slide in the market.  The reverse is true (to a fashion) regarding JOSIEBOND with quite a bit of money lined up in the (realistic) positive queue for the Rebecca Bastiman raider at the time of writing.  DEEP INTRIGUE completes my trio against the remaining four contenders to start off the meeting.

Favourite factor: The opening event on the Musselburgh card is a new event.

 

Your first 30 days for just £1

2.40:  With eight of the ten course winners on the Placepot card assembled in this one event, you will pardon me for suggesting that this is a nightmare event in the making.  All three winners have been drawn on the low side, a stat which goes against Royal Brave who scored from trap four twelve months ago but has ‘13’ to overcome this time around.  Others are preferred accordingly, namely RAPID APPLAUSE (2), LYDIATE LADY (1) and LONGROOM (8).

Favourite factor: Two of the five market leaders (via just three renewals) have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include one (6/4) winner.

Record of the eight course winners in the field:

3/10—Royal Brave (3 x good to firm)

3/5—Longroom (2 x good to firm & good)

1/4—Landing Night (good to firm)

1/8—Peal Acclaim (good to firm)

1/1—Suwaan (good to firm)

1/6—Lexington Place (good)

1/2—Pea Shooter (good)

1/1—Lady Cristal (good to firm)

 

3.10: Horses carrying 9-2 or less have secured 15 of the last 26 available Placepot positions, stats which include seven of the eleven winners. ZORAVAN and CRAZY TORNADO are two of the three Keith Dalgleish raiders in the contest and though a stable companion is the shortest priced representative, this pair offer better value from my viewpoint.  ROYAL CONNOISSEUR completes my trio in another trappy contest on the card.

Favourite factor: Seven of the eleven favourites have secured Placepot positions to date, with four market leaders having won their respective events at odds of 4/1-3/1-5/2-11/8.

 

3.40: Four of the seven horses saddled by William Haggas won yesterday, completing an 83/1 four-timer for the yard.  William has declared MOSALIM here with obvious claims, with connections having most to fear from TRIBAL WARRIOR, likely as not.  Money for the James Tate’s New Approach colt would add interest to proceedings, given that the vast majority of his winners are well backed.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 6/5 favourite claimed a Placepot position by finishing second, flanked by horses which were sent off at 13/2 & 11/2.

 

4.10: The ground might go against Richard Fahey’s dual course winner Royal Cosmic and given the odds on offer, the likes of ELITE ICON, FOUR KINGDOMS and RAVENSWOOD make more appeal.  There is some dross to wade through (like yesterday) again and once more, the race planners have seemingly lost the plot.  Given the depth of meetings on 2000 Guineas day tomorrow, why couldn’t Goodwood have shifted their meeting forward by 24 hours?   I appreciate that no racecourse wants to ‘demote’ a Saturday meeting but let’s be fair, the ‘Glorious’ week attracts more racegoers than 50% of the venues across the land manage during an entire year, whereby there is no excuse for the lack of sensible planning.

Favourite factor: The fifth race on the Musselburgh programme is another new contest.

Record of the two course winners in the penultimate leg of our favourite wager:

2/2—Royal Cosmic (good to soft & soft)

1/8—Falcon’s Fire (good)

 

4.40: TRADING POINT looks just about bombproof from a Placepot perspective despite a ‘stopping’ weight.  Whether the concession of the thick end of two stones to AL OZZDI can be undertaken to winning effect is another matter entirely.

Favourite factor: Yet another new race to assess.

 

Record of the three course winners in the 7th (non Placepot) race at 5.15:

1/3—Haymarket (good to firm)

1/8—Adventureman (good)

1/5—Ghostly Arc (good to firm)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

 

Stat of the Day, 4th May 2018

Thursday's Runner was...

4.00 Lingfield : Insurgence @ 3/1 BOG 2nd at 2/1 (Held up towards rear, ridden 2f out, headway over 1f out, ran on, led towards finish, headed close home by a flying finisher)

Next up is Friday's...

7.30 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Robero @ 13/2 BOG

A 10-runner, Class 3,  7f A/W Handicap (3yo+) on tapeta worth £9704 to the winner...

Why?

It wouldn't be unreasonable to suggest that this 6 yr old gelding might have needed the run when last seen being well beaten at Haydock six days ago. The mitigating circumstances were a 168 day absence, unsuitably soft ground and racing at a higher class than today. He's now back down at Class 3 and back on the All-Weather for the first time in ten months racing on a track where he's 1 from 2, having previously won over course and distance.

Since the start of 2013, his trainer Mick Easterby is 30 from 159 (18.9% SR) for 92.5pts (+58.2% ROI) with his handicappers turned back out just 4 to 7 days after their last run, from which...

  • males are 28/135 (20.7%) for 100.8pts (+74.7%)
  • at odds of 9/4 to 12/1 : 27/105 (25.7%) for 89.5pts (+85.3%)
  • over trips shorter than a mile : 16/98 (16.3%) for 74.5pts (+76%)
  • those unplaced LTO : 17/92 (18.5%) for 93.4pts (+101.5%)
  • on the A/W : 12/44 (27.3%) for 25.2pts (+57.3%)
  • 6 yr olds are 8/31 (25.8%) for 12.3pts (+39.6%)
  • those ridden by a 5lb claimer : 4/19 (21.1%) for 19.1pts (+100.8%)
  • at Class 3 : 4/18 (22.2%) for 20.6pts (+114.7%)
  • and on tapeta : 4/18 (22.2%) for 11pts (+61.3%)

In addition to the above, Mr Easterby's runners are 19 from 112 (17% SR) for 56.1pts (+50.1% ROI) profit in handicaps on the A/W here at Newcastle, with those failing to make the frame last time out stepping up to win 12 of 76 (15.8%) for 64.9pts (+85.4%), whilst today's jockey Harrison Shaw has ridden 24 of those handicappers, winning 5 times (20.8% SR) for profits of 29.7pts at an attractive ROI of some 123.6%...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Robero @ 13/2 BOG which was available from Betbright & Hills at 5.30pm on Thursday.To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 7.30 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Tuesday 1st May

NOTTINGHAM – MAY 1 

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £39.90 (6 favourites: 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 60.7% units went through – 7/2 – 20/1 – 5/2*

Race 2: 32.5% of the remaining units when through – 7/2 – 4/1 – 25/1 (3/1)

Race 3: 68.3% of the remaining units went through – 11/4* - 8/1 – 6/1

Race 4: 38.8% of the remaining units went through – 4/1 & 3/1 (5/4)

Race 5: 59.6% of the remaining units went through – 6/1 – 3/1* - 7/2

Race 6: 58.6% of the units secured the dividend – 2/1* & 7/1

 

Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Nottingham: 

Leg 1 (2.00): 3 (Red Handed), 5 (Spell) & 2 (Delft Dancer)

Leg 2 (2.30): 1 (Mushtaq) & 5 (Giovanni)

Leg 3 (3.00): 3 (Cosmopoltan Queen) & 6 (Lady Alavesa)

Leg 4 (3.35): 2 (Seduce Me), 7 (Flying Pandora) & 4 (Mama Africa)

Leg 5 (4.05): 7 (Double Reflection), 1 (Amazing Michelle) & 5 (Ann Without An E)

Leg 6 (4.35): 1 (Slunovrat) & 3 (Thistimenextyear)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

Your first 30 days for just £1

 

2.00: Mick Channon can do little wrong at present having saddled five of his last eight runners to winning effect and having trained last year’s favourite for the contest with a horse which was making its third appearance (see details below), Mick goes to war with his Sixties Icon newcomer RED HANDED this time around.  Richard Hannon has won with two of his eight juvenile runners this season, though his entry SPELL is still in a race at Ascot on Wednesday as I pen this column.  Of the experienced runners in the field, DELFT DANCER is preferred to Chitra.

Favourite factor: Last year’s (Mick Channon trained) favourite snared a Placepot position via a bronze medal effort.  Mick’s raider (Aquadabra) went on the win one of its eleven subsequent races at the time of writing.

 

2.30: Although MUSHTAQ is odds on right across the board with the layers in the dead of night, 11/8+ is freely available on the exchanges which dilutes enthusiasm to a fashion. Richard Hannon’s Zoffany gelding scored impressively over six furlongs on (all weather) seasonal debut at just the second time of asking and the breeding suggests that this hike up to a mile should pose few (if any) problems.  There is no move for Eledeed at the time of writing, whereby I feel duty bound to offer up GIOVANNI as the main threat to the selection whose trainer is currently enjoying a 29% strike rate via his last seven winners.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Nottingham card.

 

3.00: There are two runners that fit the ‘bet to nothing’ profile here from an each way angle, namely COSMOPOLITAN QUEEN and LADY ALAVESA. The pair is listed in order of preference, despite the fact that Gay Kelleway’s latter named raider has already had a (decent) run this season under her belt.  COSMOPOLITAN QUEEN has more potential from my viewpoint and it will interesting to see if David Elsworth has his Dubawi filly 95% fit, which might be all that is required to land the prize in this grade/company.  The reserve nomination is awarded to Last Enchantment, though Eve Johnson Houghton’s raider fails to offer value for money at around the 9/4 mark this morning according to the gospel of yours truly.

Favourite factor: This is another new event on the programme.

 

3.35: Karl Burke’s runners have been a little in and out thus far since the turf season opened (in spluttered fashion) but that said, four of his last five runners have reached the frame (exact science) at 14/1, 12/1, 8/1 & 22/5 which suggests that SEDUCE ME can give investors a decent run for their collective monies, especially as Karl’s Dutch Art filly has attracted support overnight.  Connections might have most to fear from the likes of FLYING PANDORA and MAMA AFRICA at the business end of proceedings.

Favourite factor: Yet another new race to assess on the card.

 

4.05: The general and exchange markets are giving no clues away in this trappy looking contest at the time of writing and my only advice is to possibly keep DOUBLE REFLECTION, AMAZING MICHELLE and ANN WITHOUT AN E on the right side of the mix as you plan today’s wagers, especially from a Placepot perspective.  The latter named pair could outrun their double figure prices (both hail from in form yards with half decent soft ground form in the past), whilst DOUBLE REFLECTION is another Karl Burke runner on the card to consider, especially if Seduce Me has run well in the previous race.  Course winner APACHE BLAZE is another to consider whilst waiting for the kettle to boil this morning.

Favourite factor: All three favourites have finished in the frame (including a 4/9 chance) without winning their respective events.

Record of course winners in the fifth event:

1/1—Apache Blaze (good to soft)

 

4.35: Nine of the fourteen horses to have secured toteplacepot positions carried a minimum burden of nine stones, as did all five (16/1-3/1-11/4-2/1-5/4) winners of the contest thus far.  This hardly represents an extended trend I know though with little else to work with, my short listed duo against the other three runners hail from the top of the handicap, namely SLUNOVRAT and THISTIMENEXTYEAR.

Favourite factor:  Three of the five favourites claimed toteplacepot positions thus far, stats which include three winners at 3/1, 2/1 and 5/4.

Record of course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/4—Slunovrat (good)

 

Record of course winners in the seventh (non Placepot) race on the card at 5.05:

1/1—Samovar (good to soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.