MUSSELBURGH – MAY 4
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2017: £17.50 (6 favourites: No winners - 5 placed - 1 unplaced)
Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:
Race 1: 72.7% units went through – 7/2 – 9/4* - 13/2
Race 2: 95.3% of the remaining units when through – 2/1 & 4/6*
Race 3: 80.0% of the remaining units went through – 13/2 – 6/5* - 11/2
Race 4: 60.0% of the remaining units went through – 11/4 & 2/1*
Race 5: 15.3% of the remaining units went through – 6/1 & 14/1 (4/5)
Race 6: 81.8% of the units secured the dividend – 6/1 – 6/4* - 11/2
Friday's Placepot permutation at Musselburgh:
Leg 1 (2.10): 1 (Ahlan Bil Emarati), 5 (Josiebond) & 2 (Deep Intrigue)
Leg 2 (2.40): 2 (Rapid Applause), 7 (Lydiate Lady) & 3 (Longroom)
Leg 3 (3.10): 8 (Zoravan), 5 (Crazy Tornado) & 10 (Royal Connoisseur)
Leg 4 (3.40): 1 (Mosalim) & 2 (Tribal Warrior)
Leg 5 (4.10): 5 (Elite Icon), 1 (Four Kingdoms) & 8 (Ravenswood)
Leg 6 (4.40): 1 (Trading Point) & 10 (Al Ozzdi)
Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes
2.10: AHLAN BIL EMARATI represents Kevin Ryan who has saddled six of his last nine runners to winning effect, whereby it is an unexpected fact to reveal in the dead of night that Kevin’s April foal is on the slide in the market. The reverse is true (to a fashion) regarding JOSIEBOND with quite a bit of money lined up in the (realistic) positive queue for the Rebecca Bastiman raider at the time of writing. DEEP INTRIGUE completes my trio against the remaining four contenders to start off the meeting.
Favourite factor: The opening event on the Musselburgh card is a new event.
2.40: With eight of the ten course winners on the Placepot card assembled in this one event, you will pardon me for suggesting that this is a nightmare event in the making. All three winners have been drawn on the low side, a stat which goes against Royal Brave who scored from trap four twelve months ago but has ‘13’ to overcome this time around. Others are preferred accordingly, namely RAPID APPLAUSE (2), LYDIATE LADY (1) and LONGROOM (8).
Favourite factor: Two of the five market leaders (via just three renewals) have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include one (6/4) winner.
Record of the eight course winners in the field:
3/10—Royal Brave (3 x good to firm)
3/5—Longroom (2 x good to firm & good)
1/4—Landing Night (good to firm)
1/8—Peal Acclaim (good to firm)
1/1—Suwaan (good to firm)
1/6—Lexington Place (good)
1/2—Pea Shooter (good)
1/1—Lady Cristal (good to firm)
3.10: Horses carrying 9-2 or less have secured 15 of the last 26 available Placepot positions, stats which include seven of the eleven winners. ZORAVAN and CRAZY TORNADO are two of the three Keith Dalgleish raiders in the contest and though a stable companion is the shortest priced representative, this pair offer better value from my viewpoint. ROYAL CONNOISSEUR completes my trio in another trappy contest on the card.
Favourite factor: Seven of the eleven favourites have secured Placepot positions to date, with four market leaders having won their respective events at odds of 4/1-3/1-5/2-11/8.
3.40: Four of the seven horses saddled by William Haggas won yesterday, completing an 83/1 four-timer for the yard. William has declared MOSALIM here with obvious claims, with connections having most to fear from TRIBAL WARRIOR, likely as not. Money for the James Tate’s New Approach colt would add interest to proceedings, given that the vast majority of his winners are well backed.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 6/5 favourite claimed a Placepot position by finishing second, flanked by horses which were sent off at 13/2 & 11/2.
4.10: The ground might go against Richard Fahey’s dual course winner Royal Cosmic and given the odds on offer, the likes of ELITE ICON, FOUR KINGDOMS and RAVENSWOOD make more appeal. There is some dross to wade through (like yesterday) again and once more, the race planners have seemingly lost the plot. Given the depth of meetings on 2000 Guineas day tomorrow, why couldn’t Goodwood have shifted their meeting forward by 24 hours? I appreciate that no racecourse wants to ‘demote’ a Saturday meeting but let’s be fair, the ‘Glorious’ week attracts more racegoers than 50% of the venues across the land manage during an entire year, whereby there is no excuse for the lack of sensible planning.
Favourite factor: The fifth race on the Musselburgh programme is another new contest.
Record of the two course winners in the penultimate leg of our favourite wager:
2/2—Royal Cosmic (good to soft & soft)
1/8—Falcon’s Fire (good)
4.40: TRADING POINT looks just about bombproof from a Placepot perspective despite a ‘stopping’ weight. Whether the concession of the thick end of two stones to AL OZZDI can be undertaken to winning effect is another matter entirely.
Favourite factor: Yet another new race to assess.
Record of the three course winners in the 7th (non Placepot) race at 5.15:
1/3—Haymarket (good to firm)
1/5—Ghostly Arc (good to firm)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.