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Stat of the Day, 3rd October 2018

Tuesday's Pick was...

2.00 Sedgefield : Compatriot @ 11/4 BOG 4th at 9/4 (Mid-division, slow and lost place 4th, soon niggled along, closed after omitted 3 out, one pace and beaten 2 out, left 4th last) 

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

8.30 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Another Angel @ 7/2 or 10/3 BOG  

In a 14-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 5f on Tapeta, worth £3105 to the winner... 

Why?

A 4 yr old gelding who won over course and distance in a similar Class 6 contest here just five days ago making all : a tactic that works well here at Newcastle over 5f, so I'm hoping the same approach is taken again this evening.

Trainer Antony Brittain's runners turned back out within a week of their last run are 10 from 43 (23.3% SR) for 34.6pts (+80.5% ROI) since the start of last year, from which...

  • handicappers are 10/41 (24.4%) for 36.6pts (+89.3%)
  • males are 10/32 (31.25%) for 45.6pts (+142.5%)
  • over trips of 5 to 7 f : 7/28 (25%) for 22.1pts (+79%)
  • at Class 6 : 9/25 (36%) for 40.8pts (+163.4%)
  • on the A/W : 7/21 (33.3%) for 36.4pts (+173.5%)
  • over 5f : 3/13 (23.1%) for 5.16pts (+39.7%)
  • here at Newcastle : 3/6 (50%) for 13.7pts (+227.9%)
  • and LTO winners are 2/4 (50%) for 6pts (+150%)

AND...from the above...male Class 6 A/W handicappers are 7 from 13 (53.9% SR) for 44.4pts (+341.7%) and these include...

  • at 5f to a mile : 6/10 (60%) for 29.9pts (+299%)
  • at Newcastle : 3/5 (60%) for 14.7pts (+294%)
  • over 5f : 2/4 (50%) for 2.4pts (+60%)
  • and LTO winners are 2/2 (100%) for 8pts (+400%)

...whilst more generally since 2013 in Class 5/6 A/W handicaps, horses who were winners at the same class, course and distance by up to 15 lengths at odds of 6/4 to 16/1 within the previous 10 days = 89 from 250 (35.6% SR) for 47pts (+18.8% ROI) : an angle you might want to store.

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Another Angel @ 7/2 or 10/3 BOG  , a price offered by Bet365  & Sky Bet at 5.00pm & 5.30pm on Tuesday evening (I'll be declaring to 10/3, although 7/2 was available at 8.30am on race day). To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 8.30 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 21st September 2018

Thursday's Pick was...

3.15 Pontefract : Mulligatawny @ 5/1 BOG 2nd at 11/2 (Led, strongly challenged over 1f out, headed inside final furlong, kept on under pressure but beaten by stablemate by 0.5 length) basically right trainer, wrong horse : nice 40/1 exacta for someone!

Friday's pick runs in the...

8.50 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Windforpower @ 9/2 BOG  

In a 14-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 5f on Tapeta, worth £3105 to the winner...

Why?

In line with the rest of the week so far, I'm playing it simple again today. Here we've got a likeable 8 yr old gelding that I fancied to do well in this race even before I dug the numbers out. I knew he had a good record over this track/trip and was possibly a little unlucky to be beaten by a neck last time out. These factors allied to what seemed a generous opening show from the bookies made the final decision quite easy.

So, back to 18 days ago, when he was headed late on over this course and distance at 11/1, conceding a stone to the 3/1 favourite who just pipped him, so no disgrace there and there's the possibility that a third run inside 8 days was just too much in the end and he should be fresher today.

But what stats do I have to back up a fancy?

Well, with a career of 135 races behind him so far, he's hardly unexposed, but he does well in certain conditions, especially those prevalent today. Of those 135 prior engagement, his record on the All-Weather is excellent with 10 wins from 47 (21.3% SR) for a modest 2.14pts (+4.55% ROI) profit, as he does tend to get backed and here is how he scored those 10 A/W wins, based on today's conditions, of course...

  • 10 came from 33 races (30.3%) over the 5f trip for profits of 16.14pts (+48.9%)
  • 9 from 22 (40.9%) when sent off at 6/1 or shorter for 16.93pts (+77%)
  • 8 from 17 (47.1%) when 2nd or 3rd LTO for 17.36pts (+102.1%)
  • 7 from 34 (20.6%) in handicaps for 8.68pts (+25.5%)
  • 7 from 29 (24.1%) at Class 6 for 6.44pts (+22.2%)
  • 5 from 27 (18.5%) on a straight track for 3.53pts (+13.1%)
  • 5 from 26 (19.2%) here on the Tapeta at Newcastle for 4.53pts (+17.4%)
  • 5 from 23 (21.7%) over today's course and distance for 7.53pts (+32.7%)
  • 5 from 20 (25%) when running off a mark (OR) of 50-60 for 10.53pts (+52.7%)
  • 5 from 19 (26.3%) at the age of 7/8 for 11.53pts (+60.7%)
  • 5 from 9 (55.6%) when a runner-up LTO for 12.23pts (+135.8%)
  • 4 from 14 (28.6%) wearing a visor for 11.42pts (+81.6%)
  • 4 from 12 (33.3%) coming off a break of 16-45 days for 6.21pts (+51.8%)
  • 4 from 5 (80%) when only beaten by 0.25 to 1 length LTO for 15.78pts (+315.5%)

...OR...you could just back him on the A/W over the minimum 5f at SPs of 6/1 or shorter after a top 3 finish LTO : this would have given you 9 winners from 10 (90% SR : the loser was third, beaten by just half a length!) for a profit of some 28.93pts at an ROI of 289.3%!

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Windforpower @ 9/2 BOG, a price offered by Bet365 at 5.10pm on Thursday evening, the first firm to break cover, whilst I'll be using SkyBet's 4/1 BOG should it be a winner. To see what your preferred bookie will give you later...

...click here for the betting on the 8.50 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Friday 29th June

NEWMARKET (JULY COURSE) – JUNE 29

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £235.80 (6 favourites: 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 63.6% units went through – 5/1 – 2/1* - 9/1

Race 2: 46.5% of the remaining units when through – 13/8* & 11/2

Race 3: 51.7% of the remaining units went through – 13/2 – 7/2 – 10/1 (9/4)

Race 4: 23.0% of the remaining units went through – 9/2 & 7/1 (11/8)

Race 5: 44.0% of the remaining units went through – 6/4* (Win only)

Race 6: 19.9% of the units secured the dividend – 4/1 & 10/3 (15/8)

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Newmarket: 

Leg 1 (5.35): 1 (Marilyn), 2 (Pour La Victoire) & 7 (Garth Rocket)

Leg 2 (6.10): 4 (Lover’s Knot) & 7 (Rollicking)

Leg 3 (6.45): 6 (Nicklaus), 2 (Rogue) & 4 (Kakhoor)

Leg 4 (7.20): 4 (Midnight Blue), 2 (Pippin) & 3 (Poetic Steps)

Leg 5 (7.55): 4 (Gorgeous Noora) & 1 (Tirania)

Leg 6 (8.30): 7 (Know Your Limit), 9 (Breath Caught) & 2 (Capton)

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Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

5.35: The twelve winners of the opening race have scored at 10/1-9/1-9/1-8/1-8/1-8/1-7/1-6/1-11/2-5/1-5/1-7/2-9/4** to date, whilst 20 of the 38 horses (53%) to have claimed Placepot positions have started at 7/1 or more.  The stats suggest that you should treat this opening race with caution and perhaps only become financially involved via our favourite wager, leaving others to invest from a win perspective.  The last ten winners (and twelve of the thirteen in total) have carried a minimum burden of 8-10 whereby my trio against the other five contenders consists of POUR LA VICTOIRE, MARILYN and GARTH ROCKET.  Out of interest, four-year-olds have won five of the last nine renewals with MARILYN fancied to carry on the good work on behalf of the vintage.  Whatever happens in the race, the trade press quote of the recent course winner POUR LA VICTOIRE was well wide of the mark at 9/2.  5/2 could be nearer the mark if current overnight support is sustained.

Favourite factor: Eight of the fourteen market leaders have secured Placepot positions to date.  Successful favourites from a win perspective had been conspicuous only by their absence until four years ago, when the 9/4 joint favourites filled the 'short field' frame.  That said, three subsequent results have reverted to type. New readers might like to know that the term 'short field' relates to races for 5/6/7 runners in which only the first two horses home qualify for each way/toteplacepot positions, especially if a non-runner rears its ugly head to deny us a ‘dead eight’ event.

Record of the course winner in the opening race:

1/1—Pour La Victoire (good to firm)

 

6.10: There is plenty of (realistic) money in the positive queue for Richard Hannon’s Holy Roman Emperor filly ROLLICKING at the time of writing, despite the fact that LOVER’S KNOT comes to the gig with a good reputation from the guys and gals down on Charlie Appleby’s estate.  The latter named Invincible Spirit filly is a half-sister to Key Victory who won on his only start as a juvenile, whilst Rollocking kept on well for pressure behind New Winds recently.  It’s difficult to envisage both of these horses finishing out of the frame in this grade/company.

Favourite factor: Two of the three market leaders have claimed Placepot positions by winning the two renewals to date.

 

6.45: All ten winners during the last decade have carried a minimum burden of 9-3 which eliminates just the one runner in the list unfortunately. I find it more than a little surprising that the analysis written by the trade press reporter mentions four horses in the race without including NICKLAUS who is the first name on my Placepot team sheet this evening.  William Haggas continues to send out his horses to great effect in all grades of races and this is another inmate which has been supported on the exchanges overnight, which comes as no surprise to yours truly at all.  Connections might have most to fear from ROGUE and FAKHOOR at the business end of proceedings.

Favourite factor: Seven of the last twelve favourites have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include four (7/2-9/4-11/4**-5/2) winners.

 

7.20: Mt Augustus looks weighted out of the equation from my viewpoint in this win only contest, though the other three runners all have claims on the best of their form, thoughts which suggest that the 4/7 quote about MIDNIGHT BLUE in the trade press looks too skinny.  Indeed, Sir Mark Prescott’s projected favourite is not far off the even money mark at the time of writing which if anything, is a little generous!  Whichever way the (betting) wind blows, MIDNIGHT BLUE will be joined by PIPPIN and POETIC STEPS in my Placepot mix.

Favourite factor: The seven favourites to date have secured three Placepot positions to date, statistics which include two (11/8 & 3/1) winners.

 

7.55: TIRANIA is another Haggas representative on the card which is attracting support, with connections probably having most to fear from Luca Cumani’s Raven’s Pass filly GORGEOUS NOORA who was beaten less that two lengths on her seasonal bow.  Looking at the form figures in the race, Magical Dreams can be expected to attract tens of thousands of units but that could be a good reason to swerve James Fanshawe’s raider on this occasion.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Newmarket programme.

Record of the course winner in the fifth event:

2/9—Syrian Pearl (good to firm & good to soft)

 

8.30: Four-year-olds have won five of the last eight renewals and in a fascinating last leg of our favourite wager and KNOW YOUR LIMIT is a sporting selection to extent the vintage trend.  Four of the last six runners sent out by trainer Ed Walker have secured Placepot positions, stats which include two (13/2 & 9/2) winners for good measure.  My trio against the remaining six contenders is complete by BEREATH CAUGHT and CAPTON.

Favourite factor:  All nine winners of the Placepot finale have scored at a top price of 9/1, with two (9/4 & 5/4) favourites having prevailed down the years.

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

1/3—Brorocco (good to firm)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Thursday 28th June

LEICESTER – JUNE 28 

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £443.20 (6 favourites: 2 winners & 4 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 26.9% units went through – 3/1 & 16/1 (5/2)

Race 2: 30.5% of the remaining units when through – 2/1 (Win only – 6/4)

Race 3: 40.6% of the remaining units went through – 7/1 – 7/1 – 7/1 (9/2)

Race 4: 18.0% of the remaining units went through – 10/1 & 4/1 (13/8)

Race 5: 68.8% of the remaining units went through – 13/8* & 9/1

Race 6: 40.1% of the units secured the dividend – 9/4* - 20/1 -12/1

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at Leicester: 

Leg 1 (5.40): 6 (Lexington Place), 5 (Captain Lars) & 2 (Bosham)

Leg 2 (6.10): 2 (Motafaawit) & 3 (Nayef Road)

Leg 3 (6.40): 2 (Poetic Force) & 4 (Boycie)

Leg 4 (7.15): 3 (Trogon), 4 (Bowler Hat) & 1 (Mrs Benson)

Leg 5 (7.50): 5 (Claudine) & 4 (Culdrose)

Leg 6 (8.20): 9 (Edge Of The World), 6 (Daffy Jane) & 5 (Mutabaahy)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

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5.40: Fort those of you that like to look at the corresponding results for last year’s meeting, this card was contested on the Tuesday (27th) of this week twelve months ago. Readers who like to play in running could be interested in this opening race on the card, principally because of the declaration of eleven time winner LEXINGTON PLACE.  Ruth Carr’s eight-year-old course winner is a slow starter in general terms but if breaking on level terms (thereabouts) in this grade/company, win number twelve could well be on the cards.  Have your finger primed on the relevant button because players in running are quick thinkers who jump on an ‘edge’ when it becomes available.  Aside from that scenario, CAPTAIN LARS and BOSHAM will rightly have more than their fair share of supporters.  Last year’s winner Vimy Ridge has already been withdrawn, robbing each way and Placepot players of a third place scenario.

Favourite factor: Only one of the six market leaders has claimed a Placepot position thus far when doing so by winning its relevant event as one of the 11/4 joint favourites four years ago.

Record of the two course winners in the opening event:

1/2—Lexington Place (good to firm)

1/4—David’s Beauty (soft)

 

6.10: Just the four runners go to post for this Novice event which was contested by the same number of entries twelve months ago. MOTAFAAWIT was withdrawn on account of the fast ground at Salisbury yesterday whereby we could land up with just three contenders this evening.  Upwards and onward in positive mode however by suggesting that trainer Richard Hannon might chance his luck here with just three rivals to beat, the pick of which is undoubtedly Mark Johnston’s Nayef Galileo colt NAYEF ROAD, albeit a distance of ground will eventually bring out the best in the late (May) foal.

Favourite factor: Las year’s inaugural 6/4 favourite finished last of the four runners.

 

6.40: We still await the first successful market leader following five renewals, with three winners being returned at 10/1 alongside a pair of 5/1 chances.  Course winners Arrowzone if one of two seven-year-olds in the field, though four-year-olds lead the five-year-old 3-2 in the contest to date.  Those stats bring in the likes of POETIC FORCE and BOYCIE from my viewpoint and this pair are taken against their seven rivals this evening.  The reserve nomination is awarded to Arctic Sea.

Favourite factor: Two of the five market leaders have secured Placepot positions without winning their respective events to date.

Record of the course winner in the third race:

1/1—Arrowzone (soft)

 

7.15: In contrast to the previous event on the card, this race has been great for favourite backers (see relevant stats below), with market leaders coming to the gig on a four-time on this occasion.  Mick Channon has won with his last two runners in the race (stats which include the only 14/1 rogue gold medallist to date), whereby TROGON is the first name on the team sheet, despite the fact that Mick’s gelding remains a maiden after a dozen assignments. BOWLER HAT and MRS BENSON are added into the Placepot equation.

Favourite factor: Five of the nine renewals have been won by market leaders, whilst eight gold medallists were sent off at a top price of 5/2 during the study period.

 

7.50: I opened with these words twelve months ago; “Three-year-olds invariably get the better of their elders in these mixed vintage handicaps, with vintage representatives on offer at 1/2 before the form book is consulted on this occasion.  At first glance, the 5/1 odds marked up in the trade press against the name of Hope Against Hope looks skinny to say the least with 16/1 available in a few places at the time of writing but that said, Mark Johnston’s 50/1 Nursery winner has been trimmed into 12/1 by plenty of firms as I write this column.  It remains to be seen how well the Dark Angel representative runs at the first time of asking this season, though any further support in the lead up to flag fall could be worth heeding”.  Hope Against Hope won by a hard held three lengths when returned at 7/1.  It would be great to call that type of result again a year down the line, though 5/1 is the most you might get about my pair against the field in this potential ‘dead eight’ event, namely CLAUDINE and CULDROSE.  The problem I have at the time of writing, is that I’m finding difficult the spilt the pair in terms of preference.

Favourite factor: Four of the six favourites have claimed Placepot positions thus far via just the four renewals.

Record of the course winner in the fifth contest on the card:

1/5—Zaria (heavy)

 

8.20: Two withdrawals are already in the offing but hopefully there are enough participants to create (at the very least) a ‘dead eight’ finale.  The only course winner EDGE OF THE WORLD is joined in the Placepot mix by DAFFY JANE and MUTABAAHY, though I wouldn’t have a ‘win bet’ with your money.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 5/2 favourite favourite finished nearer last than first when missing out on a Placepot position.

Record of course winner in the Placepot finale:

1/1—Edge Of The World (good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Tuesday 5th June

FONTWELL – JUNE 5

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £22.60 (6 favourites – 4 winners – 1 placed – 1 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 53.6% units went through – 7/2 & 11/4*

Race 2: 73.4% of the remaining units when through – 2/9* (Win only)

Race 3: 94.5% of the remaining units went through – 8/13* & 15/8

Race 4: 51.1% of the remaining units went through – 15/8* & 5/1

Race 5: 27.2% of the remaining units went through – 20/1 & 9/2 (2/1)

Race 6: 62.2% of the units secured the dividend – 4/7* (Win only)

 

Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Fontwell: 

Leg 1 (2.15): 3 (Westerbee) & 2 (Carraigin Aonair)

Leg 2 (2.45): 3 (Diakali) & 1 (Our Three Sons)

Leg 3 (3.15): 2 (Peculiar Places), 1 (Double Treasure) & 3 (Pontresina)

Leg 4 (3.45): 4 (Innocent Girl) & 7 (Brown Bear)

Leg 5 (4.15): 3 (Bagging Turf), 9 (Roparta Avenue) & 1 (Mogestic)

Leg 6 (4.45): 6 (Mason Dixon), 1 (Chantra Rose) & 7 (Findusatgorcombe)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.15: It is not usual to find (respectfully) the name of Seamus Mullins featured in the top ten NH trainers list in terms of the number of winners this season (eight in total), but that is a fact as we contemplate a disappointing day of sport this morning.  Only the race planners will know why we have three NH cards on offer today and none on the flat (turf racing).  Just two horses have been declared in the first race at Bangor and I wonder how many would be entered in a flat (turf) race at Sandown on semi frozen ground in January?  It beggars belief with the bowl out as they say oop north!  Back to Seamus at Fontwell by suggesting this his entry WESTERBEE can go close in a race which should not prove difficult to win.  The ‘dark horse’ in the race is CARRAIGIN AONAIR from the shrewd Olly Murphy yard which knows how to place its horses to winning effect – and then some!

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Favourite factor: The opening race is a new contest on the Fontwell card.

 

2.45: This is not a bad turnout at all, though whether a winner will emerge as Black Corton did last year before setting out a grand sequence of efforts we will have to wait and see.  If that scenario evolves, it would likely stem from a success for DIAKALI who represents ‘local’ trainer Gary Moore.  Richard Johnson takes the ride which is only the fifth time that the champion jockey has ridden for Gary (without a winner) during the last five years.  That said, the partnership has teamed up to winning effect nine times down the years and the booking takes the eye today.  OUR THREE SONS has less to prove and appears to be the main threat.

Favourite factor: Five of the six market leaders have claimed Placepot positions having won their respective events.

 

3.15: Jamie Snowden saddles Our Three Sons in the previous race on the card and the trainer has definite claims here as well, having declared DOUBLE TREASURE to contest a race over timber for the first time in the thick end of two years.  Jamie’s seven-year-old inmate was running of an official mark of 108 in those days which gives him something to find here against the likes of PONTRESINA and (to a fashion) Present Destiny.  That said, Gavin Sheehan’s mount has subsequently improved a great deal though with PECULIAR PLACES having attracted overnight support, we can take nothing for granted in an interesting heat.

Favourite factor: All three (8/13, 4/6 & 15/8) favourites have prevailed thus far.

 

3.45: Seven-year-olds have won three of the last six renewals and lone vintage representative BROWN BEAR brings plenty of fast ground form into the race, whereby Nick Gifford’s local raider looks sure to be there or thereabouts turning for home on the final circuit at this unique venue.  The figure of eight course (steeplechases) is the only track like it in the country, since Windsor ceased its interest in NH racing – wait for it – twenty years ago!  I have a wonderful ‘obituary’ article about the day that Windsor closed its doors on the jump racing scene if you would like to contact me via a direct message on my Twitter page – it is well worth a read. Back to this event by suggesting that INNOCENT GIRL is the threat to the seven-year-old record in the contest.

Favourite factor: Six of the last eight favourites have obliged, though the other two (even money & 2/1) market leaders finished out of the frame during the period.

Record of the two course winners in the fourth contest on the card:

1/1—Innocent Girl (good)

3/9—Brown Bear (2 x good & good to firm)

 

4.15: Seamus Mullins was mentioned positively in despatches earlier and the trainer has another chance on the card with MOGESTIC, though Gary Moore has a potential ‘springer’ in the contest having declared BAGGING TURF with claims on the best of his form from yesteryear.  ROPARTA AVENUE has his ground (his only two victories have been recorded on good going) and can rarely be left out of the equation in this grade/company.

Favourite factor: Three of the five favourites (via four renewals) have secured Placepot positions though that said, three of the four gold medallists were returned at odds of 20/1, 12/1 & 8/1 alongside a successful 5/2 market leader.

Record of the course winner in the field:

1/6—Roparta Avenue (good)

 

4.45: MASON DIXON looks a typical ‘rerouted’ Tim Vaughan raider ready to pounce to winning effect, especially with Richard Johnson having been booked to ride.  There are worse outsiders on the card than FINDUSATGORCOMBE on this ground, whilst CHANTARA ROSE is a definite player with Peter Bowen having saddled four of this last five runners to winning effect.  Peter’s nine-year-old-mate is his only runner until Friday (earliest) this week.

Favourite factor: Six of the eight winners have been sent off at a top price of 7/2, statistics which include four successful market leaders.

Record of the three course winners in the Placepot finale:

2/4—Champagne George (good to soft & soft)

2/7—Lee Side Lady (soft & heavy)

1/1—Findusatgorcombe (good to firm)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Stat of the Day, 5th June 2018

Monday's Runner was...

4.20 Newton Abbot : Global Thrill @ 4/1 BOG non-runner (Self Cert : Coughing)

We continue with Tuesday's...

8.45 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Blazed @ 10/3 or 3/1 BOG 

A 14-runner, Class 5, A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 5f on Tapeta worth £4140 to the winner... 

Why?

This 4 yr old gelding was a winner over this 5f on the tapeta at Wolverhampton in November for former trainer Roger Charlton and has since made the frame over 6f in tougher sprints than this at Kempton and Ascot.

This is just his second start for Ed Vaughan after finishing third at Ascot 24 days ago (Class 4, 6f) despite virtually falling out of the stalls and not quite seeing out the full six.

He drops back in both class and trip to a Class 5 / 5f contest which should suit him better, as should his previous win over this trip on a similar surface at Wolverhampton.

Stat-wise, it's a fairly simplistic approach today, based around backing Ed Vaughan's A/W handicappers who are 31/188 (16.5% SR) for 77.8pts (+41.4% ROI) since the start of 2013 and these runners include the following of relevance today...

  • 20/109 (18.4%) for 63.7pts (+58.4%) from male runners
  • 22/82 (26.8%) for 15.1pts (18.4%) from those sent off at odds of 5/1 and shorter
  • 16/81 (19.8%) for 80.9pts (+99.9%) 21-45 days after their last run
  • 4/22 (18.2%) for 21pts (+95.5%) on tapeta
  • 4/14 (28.6%) for 9.04pts (+64.6%) in June/July
  • and 3/11 (27.3%) for 6.6pts (+60%) ridden by Harry Bentley...

...with males priced at 5/1 and shorter, 21 to 45 days after their last run winning 8 of 27 (29.6% SR) for 15.5pts (+57.3% ROI) profit and this simplified approach...

...gives us...a 1pt win bet on Blazed @ 10/3 or 3/1 BOG  which was available from Bet365 & Betfair/Unibet respectively (I'll use the shorter for my results, of course) at 7.40pm on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 8.45 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Friday 4th May

MUSSELBURGH – MAY 4

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £17.50 (6 favourites: No winners - 5 placed - 1 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 72.7% units went through – 7/2 – 9/4* - 13/2

Race 2: 95.3% of the remaining units when through – 2/1 & 4/6*

Race 3: 80.0% of the remaining units went through – 13/2 – 6/5* - 11/2

Race 4: 60.0% of the remaining units went through – 11/4 & 2/1*

Race 5: 15.3% of the remaining units went through – 6/1 & 14/1 (4/5)

Race 6: 81.8% of the units secured the dividend – 6/1 – 6/4* - 11/2

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Musselburgh: 

Leg 1 (2.10): 1 (Ahlan Bil Emarati), 5 (Josiebond) & 2 (Deep Intrigue)

Leg 2 (2.40): 2 (Rapid Applause), 7 (Lydiate Lady) & 3 (Longroom)

Leg 3 (3.10): 8 (Zoravan), 5 (Crazy Tornado) & 10 (Royal Connoisseur)

Leg 4 (3.40): 1 (Mosalim) & 2 (Tribal Warrior)

Leg 5 (4.10): 5 (Elite Icon), 1 (Four Kingdoms) & 8 (Ravenswood)

Leg 6 (4.40): 1 (Trading Point) & 10 (Al Ozzdi)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.10: AHLAN BIL EMARATI represents Kevin Ryan who has saddled six of his last nine runners to winning effect, whereby it is an unexpected fact to reveal in the dead of night that Kevin’s April foal is on the slide in the market.  The reverse is true (to a fashion) regarding JOSIEBOND with quite a bit of money lined up in the (realistic) positive queue for the Rebecca Bastiman raider at the time of writing.  DEEP INTRIGUE completes my trio against the remaining four contenders to start off the meeting.

Favourite factor: The opening event on the Musselburgh card is a new event.

 

Your first 30 days for just £1

2.40:  With eight of the ten course winners on the Placepot card assembled in this one event, you will pardon me for suggesting that this is a nightmare event in the making.  All three winners have been drawn on the low side, a stat which goes against Royal Brave who scored from trap four twelve months ago but has ‘13’ to overcome this time around.  Others are preferred accordingly, namely RAPID APPLAUSE (2), LYDIATE LADY (1) and LONGROOM (8).

Favourite factor: Two of the five market leaders (via just three renewals) have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include one (6/4) winner.

Record of the eight course winners in the field:

3/10—Royal Brave (3 x good to firm)

3/5—Longroom (2 x good to firm & good)

1/4—Landing Night (good to firm)

1/8—Peal Acclaim (good to firm)

1/1—Suwaan (good to firm)

1/6—Lexington Place (good)

1/2—Pea Shooter (good)

1/1—Lady Cristal (good to firm)

 

3.10: Horses carrying 9-2 or less have secured 15 of the last 26 available Placepot positions, stats which include seven of the eleven winners. ZORAVAN and CRAZY TORNADO are two of the three Keith Dalgleish raiders in the contest and though a stable companion is the shortest priced representative, this pair offer better value from my viewpoint.  ROYAL CONNOISSEUR completes my trio in another trappy contest on the card.

Favourite factor: Seven of the eleven favourites have secured Placepot positions to date, with four market leaders having won their respective events at odds of 4/1-3/1-5/2-11/8.

 

3.40: Four of the seven horses saddled by William Haggas won yesterday, completing an 83/1 four-timer for the yard.  William has declared MOSALIM here with obvious claims, with connections having most to fear from TRIBAL WARRIOR, likely as not.  Money for the James Tate’s New Approach colt would add interest to proceedings, given that the vast majority of his winners are well backed.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 6/5 favourite claimed a Placepot position by finishing second, flanked by horses which were sent off at 13/2 & 11/2.

 

4.10: The ground might go against Richard Fahey’s dual course winner Royal Cosmic and given the odds on offer, the likes of ELITE ICON, FOUR KINGDOMS and RAVENSWOOD make more appeal.  There is some dross to wade through (like yesterday) again and once more, the race planners have seemingly lost the plot.  Given the depth of meetings on 2000 Guineas day tomorrow, why couldn’t Goodwood have shifted their meeting forward by 24 hours?   I appreciate that no racecourse wants to ‘demote’ a Saturday meeting but let’s be fair, the ‘Glorious’ week attracts more racegoers than 50% of the venues across the land manage during an entire year, whereby there is no excuse for the lack of sensible planning.

Favourite factor: The fifth race on the Musselburgh programme is another new contest.

Record of the two course winners in the penultimate leg of our favourite wager:

2/2—Royal Cosmic (good to soft & soft)

1/8—Falcon’s Fire (good)

 

4.40: TRADING POINT looks just about bombproof from a Placepot perspective despite a ‘stopping’ weight.  Whether the concession of the thick end of two stones to AL OZZDI can be undertaken to winning effect is another matter entirely.

Favourite factor: Yet another new race to assess.

 

Record of the three course winners in the 7th (non Placepot) race at 5.15:

1/3—Haymarket (good to firm)

1/8—Adventureman (good)

1/5—Ghostly Arc (good to firm)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

 

Stat of the Day, 4th May 2018

Thursday's Runner was...

4.00 Lingfield : Insurgence @ 3/1 BOG 2nd at 2/1 (Held up towards rear, ridden 2f out, headway over 1f out, ran on, led towards finish, headed close home by a flying finisher)

Next up is Friday's...

7.30 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Robero @ 13/2 BOG

A 10-runner, Class 3,  7f A/W Handicap (3yo+) on tapeta worth £9704 to the winner...

Why?

It wouldn't be unreasonable to suggest that this 6 yr old gelding might have needed the run when last seen being well beaten at Haydock six days ago. The mitigating circumstances were a 168 day absence, unsuitably soft ground and racing at a higher class than today. He's now back down at Class 3 and back on the All-Weather for the first time in ten months racing on a track where he's 1 from 2, having previously won over course and distance.

Since the start of 2013, his trainer Mick Easterby is 30 from 159 (18.9% SR) for 92.5pts (+58.2% ROI) with his handicappers turned back out just 4 to 7 days after their last run, from which...

  • males are 28/135 (20.7%) for 100.8pts (+74.7%)
  • at odds of 9/4 to 12/1 : 27/105 (25.7%) for 89.5pts (+85.3%)
  • over trips shorter than a mile : 16/98 (16.3%) for 74.5pts (+76%)
  • those unplaced LTO : 17/92 (18.5%) for 93.4pts (+101.5%)
  • on the A/W : 12/44 (27.3%) for 25.2pts (+57.3%)
  • 6 yr olds are 8/31 (25.8%) for 12.3pts (+39.6%)
  • those ridden by a 5lb claimer : 4/19 (21.1%) for 19.1pts (+100.8%)
  • at Class 3 : 4/18 (22.2%) for 20.6pts (+114.7%)
  • and on tapeta : 4/18 (22.2%) for 11pts (+61.3%)

In addition to the above, Mr Easterby's runners are 19 from 112 (17% SR) for 56.1pts (+50.1% ROI) profit in handicaps on the A/W here at Newcastle, with those failing to make the frame last time out stepping up to win 12 of 76 (15.8%) for 64.9pts (+85.4%), whilst today's jockey Harrison Shaw has ridden 24 of those handicappers, winning 5 times (20.8% SR) for profits of 29.7pts at an attractive ROI of some 123.6%...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Robero @ 13/2 BOG which was available from Betbright & Hills at 5.30pm on Thursday.To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 7.30 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Tuesday 1st May

NOTTINGHAM – MAY 1 

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £39.90 (6 favourites: 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 60.7% units went through – 7/2 – 20/1 – 5/2*

Race 2: 32.5% of the remaining units when through – 7/2 – 4/1 – 25/1 (3/1)

Race 3: 68.3% of the remaining units went through – 11/4* - 8/1 – 6/1

Race 4: 38.8% of the remaining units went through – 4/1 & 3/1 (5/4)

Race 5: 59.6% of the remaining units went through – 6/1 – 3/1* - 7/2

Race 6: 58.6% of the units secured the dividend – 2/1* & 7/1

 

Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Nottingham: 

Leg 1 (2.00): 3 (Red Handed), 5 (Spell) & 2 (Delft Dancer)

Leg 2 (2.30): 1 (Mushtaq) & 5 (Giovanni)

Leg 3 (3.00): 3 (Cosmopoltan Queen) & 6 (Lady Alavesa)

Leg 4 (3.35): 2 (Seduce Me), 7 (Flying Pandora) & 4 (Mama Africa)

Leg 5 (4.05): 7 (Double Reflection), 1 (Amazing Michelle) & 5 (Ann Without An E)

Leg 6 (4.35): 1 (Slunovrat) & 3 (Thistimenextyear)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

Your first 30 days for just £1

 

2.00: Mick Channon can do little wrong at present having saddled five of his last eight runners to winning effect and having trained last year’s favourite for the contest with a horse which was making its third appearance (see details below), Mick goes to war with his Sixties Icon newcomer RED HANDED this time around.  Richard Hannon has won with two of his eight juvenile runners this season, though his entry SPELL is still in a race at Ascot on Wednesday as I pen this column.  Of the experienced runners in the field, DELFT DANCER is preferred to Chitra.

Favourite factor: Last year’s (Mick Channon trained) favourite snared a Placepot position via a bronze medal effort.  Mick’s raider (Aquadabra) went on the win one of its eleven subsequent races at the time of writing.

 

2.30: Although MUSHTAQ is odds on right across the board with the layers in the dead of night, 11/8+ is freely available on the exchanges which dilutes enthusiasm to a fashion. Richard Hannon’s Zoffany gelding scored impressively over six furlongs on (all weather) seasonal debut at just the second time of asking and the breeding suggests that this hike up to a mile should pose few (if any) problems.  There is no move for Eledeed at the time of writing, whereby I feel duty bound to offer up GIOVANNI as the main threat to the selection whose trainer is currently enjoying a 29% strike rate via his last seven winners.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Nottingham card.

 

3.00: There are two runners that fit the ‘bet to nothing’ profile here from an each way angle, namely COSMOPOLITAN QUEEN and LADY ALAVESA. The pair is listed in order of preference, despite the fact that Gay Kelleway’s latter named raider has already had a (decent) run this season under her belt.  COSMOPOLITAN QUEEN has more potential from my viewpoint and it will interesting to see if David Elsworth has his Dubawi filly 95% fit, which might be all that is required to land the prize in this grade/company.  The reserve nomination is awarded to Last Enchantment, though Eve Johnson Houghton’s raider fails to offer value for money at around the 9/4 mark this morning according to the gospel of yours truly.

Favourite factor: This is another new event on the programme.

 

3.35: Karl Burke’s runners have been a little in and out thus far since the turf season opened (in spluttered fashion) but that said, four of his last five runners have reached the frame (exact science) at 14/1, 12/1, 8/1 & 22/5 which suggests that SEDUCE ME can give investors a decent run for their collective monies, especially as Karl’s Dutch Art filly has attracted support overnight.  Connections might have most to fear from the likes of FLYING PANDORA and MAMA AFRICA at the business end of proceedings.

Favourite factor: Yet another new race to assess on the card.

 

4.05: The general and exchange markets are giving no clues away in this trappy looking contest at the time of writing and my only advice is to possibly keep DOUBLE REFLECTION, AMAZING MICHELLE and ANN WITHOUT AN E on the right side of the mix as you plan today’s wagers, especially from a Placepot perspective.  The latter named pair could outrun their double figure prices (both hail from in form yards with half decent soft ground form in the past), whilst DOUBLE REFLECTION is another Karl Burke runner on the card to consider, especially if Seduce Me has run well in the previous race.  Course winner APACHE BLAZE is another to consider whilst waiting for the kettle to boil this morning.

Favourite factor: All three favourites have finished in the frame (including a 4/9 chance) without winning their respective events.

Record of course winners in the fifth event:

1/1—Apache Blaze (good to soft)

 

4.35: Nine of the fourteen horses to have secured toteplacepot positions carried a minimum burden of nine stones, as did all five (16/1-3/1-11/4-2/1-5/4) winners of the contest thus far.  This hardly represents an extended trend I know though with little else to work with, my short listed duo against the other three runners hail from the top of the handicap, namely SLUNOVRAT and THISTIMENEXTYEAR.

Favourite factor:  Three of the five favourites claimed toteplacepot positions thus far, stats which include three winners at 3/1, 2/1 and 5/4.

Record of course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/4—Slunovrat (good)

 

Record of course winners in the seventh (non Placepot) race on the card at 5.05:

1/1—Samovar (good to soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Thursday 19th April

NEWMARKET – APRIL 19 

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £33.80 (8 favourites – 4 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 59.4% units went through – 11/4* - 13/2 – 8/1

Race 2: 39.9% of the remaining units when through – 5/1 & 11/4** (11/4**)

Race 3: 77.4% of the remaining units went through – Evens* & 9/1

Race 4: 34.9% of the remaining units went through – 8/1 & 11/4 (9/4)

Race 5: 56.7% of the remaining units went through – 11/4** - 9/2 – 11/4**

Race 6: 59.4% of the units secured the dividend – 11/4* - 12/1 – 25/1

 

Thurday's Placepot permutation at Newmarket: 

Leg 1 (1.50): 7 (Captain Jameson), 5 (Consequences) & 6 (Dragons Tail)

Leg 2 (2.25): 8 (Karaginsky), 10 (Military Band) & 13 (Monoxide)

Leg 3 (3.00): 4 (Le Brivido) & 9 (Spirit Of Valour)

Leg 4 (3.35): 3 (Masar) & 4 (Roaring Lion)

Leg 5 (4.10): 13 (Sheika Reika), 4 (Improve) & 10 (Playfull Spirit)

Leg 6 (4.45): 2 (Nordic Lights), 3 (Argentello) & 5 (Bedouin’s Story)

Your first 30 days for just £1

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

1.50: I offered a big shout for last year’s 11/4 winner and am quietly confident that CAPTAIN JAMESON can reward each way investors this time around.  Trainer John Quinn did us a 12/1 favour at the corresponding fixture last year and though softer ground would have offered an added bonus, Jason Hart’s mount is expected to give us a good run for our collective monies, albeit stakes are lowered (to a fashion) because of his ‘recent’ gelding operation.  Not all the boys react as positively as some having had the ‘snip’!  Course and distance winner CONSEQUENCES is named as the main threat alongside DRAGONS TAIL who represents Tom Dascombe’s in-form yard.  For the record, eight winners during the last decade carried a maximum burden of 8-13 and both CAPTAIN JAMESON and DRAGONS TAIL qualify via the recent weight trend.

Favourite factor: Eight of the twelve favourites have secured Placepot positions during the eleven years, statistics which include six winners.

Record of the course winner in the opening race:

1/1—Consequences (good to firm)

 

2.25: Godolphin has secured three of the last four renewals (and four of the last seven) of the ‘Wood Ditton’ and the two horses sporting the famous blue colours are both expected to go close here, namely KARAGINSKY and MILITARY BAND.  The pair is listed in marginal order of preference with both Charlie Appleby and Saeed Bin Suroor having their horses in fine form at this moment in time.  That said, Charlie seemingly always has his runners in grand fettle – period!  Money for MONOXIDE would add interest to proceedings, especially as no trainer has saddled more winners that Martyn Meade on this final day of the Craven meeting during the last five years.  Martyn’s Epsom Derby entry might be put through his paces with more urgency than some I’ll wager, offering potential each way investors an interest at around the 16/1 mark this morning.

Favourite factor: 14 of the 24 favourites have secured Placepot positions (seven winners) during the 20 year study period.

 

3.00: Four-year-olds have won nine renewals during the last twenty years, whilst claiming 23 of the 58 available Placepot positions during the study period. The pair which dominated last year’s Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot could fill the forecast positions again here I guess, with LE BRIVIDO and SPIRIT OF VALOUR being the horses in question.  Aidan O’Brien saddled a welcome winner at Dundalk last night following nineteen consecutive losers, though I am not speaking ‘after the event’ you understand as I warned readers of Aidan’s form before racing commenced on Tuesday.  It’s not that Aidan’s runners are running deplorably you understand, they are simply not picking up to go on and win their races having been given every chance by their respective pilots.  For that reason, I’m adding SPIRIT OF VALOUR in the Placepot mix, albeit I expect Aidan’s War front colt to be held by the French representative again.  MAGICAL MEMORY won this race back in 2016 and it might be a tad too soon to write of his chance of winning another Group race just yet, whilst the second time of asking this season might not be a bad time to catch the six-year-old, especially with the Charlie Hills runners going well just now.  DREAM OF DREAMS would have entered the equation had the ground been as soft as it was earlier in the week.

Favourite factor: Four market leaders have prevailed (within the last thirteen years), whilst eleven of the twenty favourites have reached the frame during the (longer) study period.

Record of the course winners in the third race on the card:

2/2—Brando (good to firm & good to soft)

1/3—Magical Memory (good to soft)

 

3.35: Few trainers ‘tilt at windmills’ better than Peter Chapple-Hyam and when I offer that remark, I’m talking about 50/1 chances as well as what some media types class as outsider simply because a horse wins in double figures!  That said, even Peter might be overstepping the mark with his course and distance winner Just Brilliant here, though I can rarely (if ever) totally write of his runners at outrageous prices.  This does look to be a tough ask however, with ROARING LION and (particularly) MASAR having been declared to run.  The problem we ‘Potters’ have when looking at trial races like this is just how much is a horse going to be ‘pushed’ out if its winning chance has gone?  I’m aware that this is a comment which could be made for any fancied horse though in the case of potential ‘champions’ in the making, the scenario is extended without a shadow of a doubt.  That said, MASAR is likely to be ridden all the way to the jamstick given that connections have little to lose by taking on the hot favourite ROARING LION.  In case you thought that John Gosden’s market leader was ‘home and hosed’ before going into the stalls, I feel obligated to suggest that this is his first outing on what might turn out to be good ground by the time that flag fall arrives this afternoon.  All three victories have been recorded on ‘good to soft’, whilst his all-weather victory was on the slow side of standard at Kempton.  Food for thought?

Favourite factor: 12 of the 20 market leaders have snared Placepot positions during the study period, statistics which include eight winners.

Record of the course winners in the Craven Stakes:

1/1—Just Brilliant (good)

1/1—Roaring Lion (good to soft)

 

4.10: The dogs are barking harmoniously regarding the chance of SHEIKHA REIKA who represents Roger Varian who won with one of his four runners on the heath yesterday afternoon.  Money for the William Haggas newcomer IMPROVE would add much required interest to proceedings, whilst my trio against the remaining eleven contenders is completed by PLAYFULL SPIRIT.

Favourite factor: Eleven favourites during the last twelve years have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include four successful market leaders from a win perspective.

 

4.45: I guess it’s easy to suggest (this side of midnight) that the lads and lasses in the trade press office have a got a price seriously wrong in terms of the betting guide, though the 12/1 quoted for Saaed Bin Suroor’s BEDOUIN’S STORY was right out of the top draw of JK Rowling’s fictional bedtime reading material.  We might be lucky to secure half of those odds I’ll wager, albeit NORDIC LIGHTS and ARGENTELLO might still take the beating from a win perspective.

Favourite factor: The Placepot finale is a new ‘novice’ event with which to close out our favourite wager.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

Stat of the Day, 19th April 2018

Wednesday's Runner was...

9.15 Kempton : Ubla @ 10/3 BOG non-runner (Result / report to follow later)

We now continue with Thursday's...

9.15 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Lord Murphy @ 4/1 BOG

A 14-runner, Class 6,  7f A/W Classified Stakes (3yo+) on tapeta worth £3105 to the winner...

Why?

A fairly simple approach today, but one I still expect to bear fruit!

A 5 yr old gelding who was a winner on tapeta in this grade over this trip last time out 10 days ago and is by Holy Roman Emperor, whose 3-5 yr olds are 7/35 (20% SR) for 56.86pts (+162.5% ROI) in Class 6, 7f contests on tapeta since the start of 2015.

There you go, I told you it was a simple approach today.

I'm only joking, of course! There is a bit more!

He's trained by Daniel Mark Loughnane, who since 2009 is 16/38 (42.1% SR) for 48.56pts (+127.8% ROI) profit with horses running at the same class and trip as an LTO win in the previous 6 to 20 days. And from those 38 quickly turned back out runners...

  • those running on the A/W are 14/30 (46.7%) for 46.6pts (+155.3%)
  • at Class 6 : 14/28 (50%) for 44.77pts (+159.9%)
  • on Tapeta : 5/15 (33.3%) for 22.54pts (+150.3%)
  • 5 yr olds are 4/9 (44.4%) for 9.7pts (+107.7%)
  • and at a 7f trip : 2/4 (50%) for 21.54pts (+538.5%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Lord Murphy @ 4/1 BOG which was available from Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.25pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 9.15 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 14th April

AINTREE – APRIL 14

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £145.20 (6 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions offered in brackets:

Race 1: 54.7% units went through – 11/1- 5/1- 16/1 – 4/1*

Race 2: 56.6% of the remaining units when through – 3/1* - 14/1 – 7/2

Race 3: 22.1% of the remaining units went through – 4/1 & 6/1 (6/5)

Race 4: 41.6% of the remaining units went through – 10/1 – 16/1 – 5/1 – 9/2*

Race 5: 69.7% of the remaining units went through – 9/4* - 5/1 – 9/1

Race 6: 25.3% of the units secured the dividend – 14/1 – 16/1 – 25/1 – 8/1*

*It’s worth noting that despite three of the top ten horses in the betting (including the favourite) finished in the frame in a 40 strong field, only a quarter of the live Placepot units going into the Grand National survived.

*I secured a healthy return of £116.64 on Friday (80p of the £145.80 dividend) - offering confidence as we go into one of the biggest days on the racing calendar.

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Aintree: 

Leg 1 (1.45): 3 (Dream Berry), 1 (Louis’ Vac Pounch) & 10 (Red Indian)

Leg 2 (2.25): 2 (On The Blind Side), 9 (Kildisart) & 6 (Chosen Path)

Leg 3 (3.00): 4 (Petit Mouchoir) & 2 (Diego Du Charmil)

Leg 4 (3.40): 7 (Thomas Patrick), 15 (Bells Of Ailsworth) & 4 (Rocklander)

Leg 5 (4.20): 6 (Sam Spinner) & 11 (Wholestone)

Leg 6 (5.15): 18 (Seeyouatmidnight), 37 (Milansbar), 13 (Tiger Roll) & 2 (Blaklion)

Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes

 

1.45: Six-year-olds have won five of the last eleven renewals, whilst six of the last seven eight gold medallists have been burdened with a minimum weight of eleven stones. Jonjo O'Neill has saddled three winners during the last twelve years and putting the stats and facts together produces a short list of DREAM BERRY, LOUIS’ PAC and RED INDIAN.  Jonjo O’Neill (DREAM BERRY) deserves a change of luck, the trainer having fancied Minella Rocco strongly before the rains came.  Jonjo took the horse out of the big race yesterday and few people would deny the trainer a winner on the big day.

Favourite factor: Eight of the fifteen favourites during the last twelve years have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include three successful market leaders and one co favourite.

Record of the three course winners in the opening event:

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1/2—Louis’ Vac Pouch (soft)

1/1—Knight Of Noir (good)

1/3—Sykes (good)

 

2.25: Five-year-olds have won six of the last eight renewals, though only two big outsiders have been declared, one of which is a doubtful starter, with Bedrock having run on Friday.  That leaves 25/1 chance CHOSEN PATH as the each way call, though course winner ON THE BLIND SIDE might take the beating.  Another each way option is KILDISART who represents Ben Pauling, looking a tad overpriced at the time of writing at around the 16/1 mark from my viewpoint.

Favourite factor: Eight clear market leaders and one joint favourite have prevailed during the last nineteen years, whilst fourteen of the nineteen jollies have secured Placepot positions. Going back further in time, 17/40 renewals to date have been won by favourites (42.5% strike rate).

Record of the course winner in the second race:

1/1—On The Blind Side (good)

 

3.00: Six-year-old's have secured six of the last seven renewals in which they were represented, the relevant raiders in 2015 only being conspicuous by their absence. Upwards and onward in positive mode by confirming that two vintage representative take their chance, namely DIEGO DU CHARMIL and SHANTOU ROCK, the pair being listed in marginal order of preference.  That said, PETIT MOUCHOIR should take plenty of beating, though connections would have been disappointed in the running of Balko Des Flos on Friday.  Connections would not want much more rain for the favourite I’ll wager.

Favourite factor: Six clear favourites and one joint market leader have won since 1999, whilst 13 of the 19 jollies have claimed Placepot positions. The biggest priced winner during the previous 13 years was returned at 6/1 before the 28/1 gold medallist prevailed in 2013.

 

3.40: 15 of the last 16 winners carried weights of 11-3 or less, whilst eight-year-old's have won seven of the last seventeen contests.   All three eight-year-olds fit the weight trend but trainers have failed to do their homework given just a trio of declarations. BELLS OF AILSWORTH is the pick from my viewpoint, with the Tim Vaughan raider have secured a medal of each colour from just four starts on soft ground.  More logical winners include a worthy favourite in THOMAS PATRICK from the red hot Tom Lacey yard and (arguably) ROCKLANDER.

Favourite factor: 11 of the 22 favourites have finished in the frame during the last 18 years, statistics which include four winners.

Record of the course winners in the fourth event on the card:

1/2—On Tour (soft)

 

4.20: The potential market leaders both cope with this type of ground whereby I will take the quick (hopefully) safe route towards the main event/finale by naming SAM SPINNER and WHOLESTONE against their nine rivals, especially given the favourable trend for fancied horses for several years now.  The ground is the worry for The Worlds End, whilst the jury must surely still be out regarding the participation of L’Ami Serge who won here on Thursday.

Favourite factor: 13 favourites have won during the last 23 years (56.5% strike rate, whilst market leaders have secured Placepot position in each of the last twelve years.

Record of the two course winners in the fifth race:

1/2—L’Ami Serge (soft)

1/1—The Worlds End (good)

 

5.15: Let’s get some of the Grand National facts and figures out of the way to start with.  Nine and ten-year-olds have shared 14 of the last 22 renewals, though it's worth noting that eleven-year-olds come to the party having won four of the last seven contests.  Nine-year-olds have won ten of the last 35 contests (28.6% strike rate). Only five favourites have won via the last 34 renewals. Irish trainers have won six of the last 19 contests.  Only three grey horses have won the big race, the 2012 winner being the first for fifty one years.  26 female jockeys have participated in the big race with the 2012 third placed effort of Katie Walsh aboard Seabass the pick of the pilots to date:  The record of horses ridden by female jockeys:  one placed--nine unplaced--sixteen failed to complete the course though to be entirely fair, eleven of those runners started at odds ranging between 100/1 and 500/1.  In contrast to previous results down the years, five of the last nine winners have carried a minimum burden of eleven stones.  This was my selection last year; As a winner of seven of his last nineteen races, One For Arthur (winner at 14/1) gets in off a low weight of 10-10 which defies belief in all honesty. Whatever the weather does between now and flag fall will not affect the selection, given that One For Arthur has won all on types of ground during an impressive career. The Grand National is famous for turning relatively ‘unknown’ jockeys into household names and Derek Fox can be the latest of them.  The following runners should give us a good run for our collective monies this time around.  For a horse carrying 10-11, SEEYOUATMIDNIGHT has plenty of class and his each way chance is there for all to see on the best of his form.  Going back to the ‘Dipper’ steeplechase on New Year’s Day in 2016, BLAKLION was beaten fair and square by my main selection when conceding three pounds at Newcastle.  BLAKLION is asked to give an additional nine pounds on this occasion and using that horse as a decent benchmark following last year’s fine effort, SEEYOUATMIDNIGHT has to be the call. This race has catapulted so many jockeys into the big time down the years and it could be the turn of Bryony Frost this time around aboard MILANSBAR, who can take advantage of conditions with moisture in the ground to run well at around the 25/1 mark. It’s worth noting that Milansbar has finished in the first three in 12/18 assignments on soft/heavy ground, statistics which include five victories.  TIGER ROLL was a fine winner at the Cheltenham Festival last month over the specialist cross country fences, whereby this circuit could (again) bring out the best of the Gordon Elliot raider who looks set to reach the frame if enjoying a trouble free passage.  The worry is that the soft/heavy ground might wear the little warrior down at the business end of proceedings.  The Nigel Twiston-Davies raider BLAKLION ran well for us to finish fourth last year when listed as my third choice in the race.  The experience of jumping these fences over this distance of ground is counteracted by the fact that the horse is asked to carry an additional eight pounds twelve months on.  I fully expect Blaklion to reward each way investors, probably finding one or two too good for him from a win perspective.  The reserve option on the eve of the big race is VIEUX LION ROUGE who has won five of his six races on heavy ground.  On the flip side of the coin, this is his third start in the race having failed to finish in the frame to date, albeit those renewals were contested on faster ground.

Favourite factor: Two joint market leaders and one clear favourite have won the Grand National during the last thirteen years which is a great record in such a competitive event, bucking previous market leader trends. 11 of the 24 favourites during the last 15 years have secured Placepot positions.

Record of the three course winners in the Grand National:

1/4—Blaklion (heavy)

1/4—Vieux Lion Touge (good to soft)

1/4—Gas Line Boy (heavy)

 

Record of the course winner in the 7th (non Placepot) race at 6.15:

1/1—Chesterfield (good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Friday 30th March

LINGFIELD – MARCH 30

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £250.40 (7 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 3 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

 

Race 1: 33.4% units went through – 33/1, 10/3* & 12/1

Race 2: 26.6% of the remaining units when through – 7/1, 7/1 & 16/1 (4/1)

Race 3: 92.1% of the remaining units went through – 6/1, Evens* & 11/2

Race 4: 35.0% of the remaining units went through – 4/1**, 8/1 & 14/1 (4/1**)

Race 5: 17.0% of the remaining units went through – 8/1, 14/1 & 12/1 (6/5)

Race 6: 59.6% of the units secured the dividend – 11/8*, 16/1 & 15/2

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Lingfield: 

Leg 1 (1.30): 14 (Silent Echo), 10 (Take The Helm), 11 (Swift Approval) & 4 (Squats)

Leg 2 (2.00): 5 (Red Verdon) & 2 (Funny Kid)

Leg 3 (2.30): 3 (Diagnostic) & 13 (Zest)

Leg 4 (3.05): 8 (Kachy), 4 (Gifted Master) & 3 (Double Up)

Leg 5 (3.40): 3 (Corinthia Knight), 4 (Count Otto) & 5 (Desert Doctor)

Leg 6 (4.10): 10 (Second Thought) & 5 (Goring)

Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes

 

1.30: Hopefully you are playing up yesterday ‘winnings’ given that four units of my 10p Placepot permutation obliged which gave us a potential return of £505.48 via the full £1,263.70 dividend at Wetherby.  Upwards and onward in positive mode accordingly by suggesting that SILENT ECHO could give us a good start to the meeting given his 50% strike rate at the course to date.  Confidence is a massive part of producing a profit for investors and after nominating a 25/1 winner yesterday via my permutation, I have no hesitation in offering three outsiders in this opening event to carry our Placepot cash, namely TAKE THE HELM, SWIFT APPROVAL and SQUATS.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 10/3 favourite had to give best to a 33/1 chance close home when securing a Placepot position.

Details of the seven course winners in the opening event:

2/2—Wahash

2/4—Early Morning

1/3—Reckless Endeavour

1/3—Eljaddaaf

2/4—Take The Helm

1/2—Swift Approval

1/2—Silent Echo

 

2.00: RED VERDON will surely take some kicking out of the frame though as regular readers are aware, staying races on the level do not bring out the best in yours truly.  Racehorses are fundamentally born for speed whereby when pace drops away, so do predictable results from my viewpoint.  I will add the French raider FUNNY KID into the mix accordingly.

Favourite factor: The three previous favourites had secured two gold medals and one of the silver variety when claiming Placepot positions, before last year’s 4/1 market leader finished out with the washing.

Details of the two course winners in the second race:

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1/1—Red Verdon

3/7--Watersmeet

 

2.30: Four-year-olds have won three of the four contests to date whilst claiming seven of the twelve available Placepot positions from around 60% of the total number of runners who have contested the event thus far.  The pick of the four vintage representatives on this occasion appears to be DIAGNOSTIC over Soul Silver from my viewpoint.  That said, Roger Charlton’s five-year-old raider ZEST boasts a fine track record here at Lingfield, though an additional furlong would have helped his cause.  I guess this race will be run at a furious pace however, whereby he will be closing in on the pace setters as jockeys raise their whips at the business end of proceedings.

Favourite factor: Three of the five favourites have claimed Placepot positions without winning their respective events via four renewals.

Details of the seven course winners in the third contest on the card:

1/15—Bint Dandy

3/6—Carolinae

3/8—Make Music

1/2—Pattie

1/2—Rose Berry

1/6—Summer Icon

2/3--Zest

 

3.05: DOUBLE UP looks a shade too big at 22/1 in a place this morning, especially with stable companion Atletico having been taken out overnight.  That said, KACHY and GIFTED MASTER are more obvious winners from a win perspective.  The first named Tom Dascombe raider is unbeaten (4/4) when contesting races away from straight courses, whereby he is marginally preferred to Hugo Palmer’s five-year-old raider.

Favourite factor: Three of the five marker leaders have claimed Placepot positions to date via four renewals, stats which include two (65/ & 4/1**) winners.

Details of the six course winners in the field:

1/3—Double Up

1/1—Gifted Master

4/9—Gracious John

1/3—Gulliver

2/2—Kachy

2/4—Kimberlla

 

3.40: COUNT OTTO contests a much warmer race here than has been the case of late, though his unbeaten course record (2/2) holds him in good stead from an each way perspective at around the 14/1 mark.  DESERT DOCTOR is another with win and place claims at a half decent price, though CORINITHIA KNIGHT has an impressive official mark of 105 which is far and away the best indicator of the potential winner of the race.

Favourite factor: The inaugural 11/8 favourite duly obliged twelve months ago.

Details of the four course winners in the penultimate Placepot race on the Good Friday programme:

1/1—Corinthian Knight

2/2—Count Otto

1/1—Desert Doctor

1/1—Rock On Baileys

 

4.10:  This is the race which helped to produce a half decent Placepot dividend twelve months ago when the 6/5 favourite finished out of the money with horses filling the frame at 8/1, 14/1 & 12/1.  As you can detect above, only 17% of the units which were live going into what was the fifth race on the card last year survived to go through to the Placepot finale.  This time around however, SECOND THOUGHT could score on the this high profile card for the second successive year, with connections probably having most to fear from GORING who represents Eve Johnson Houghton who recorded fabulous figures last term and a victory here would give the popular trainer a wonderful boost going into the turf season.

Favourite factor: The four market leaders to date have secured two of the ‘lesser medals’ thus far as we still await the first successful favourite.

Details of the seven course winners in the Placepot finale:

2/2—Arcanada

2/3—Captain Joy

4/11—Chevalier

4/5—Goring

1/6—Mr Scaramanda

2/2—Second Thought

1/3—Spare Parts

 

Details of the six course winners in the non Placepot event at 4.40:

1/3—Abe Lincoln

4/12—Battalion

2/5—Master The World

1/5—Pactolus

6/11—Petite Jack

1/4--Utmost

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Wednesday 28th March

WINCANTON – MARCH 28

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £13,527.30 (7 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 4 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions offered in brackets:

 

Race 1: 69.8% units went through – 10/1, 4/1 & 11/4*

Race 2: 35.6% of the remaining units when through – 5/2** & 33/1 (5/2**)

Race 3: 78.6% of the remaining units went through – 6/1 & 8/15*

Race 4: 1.5% of the remaining units went through – 9/1 (Win only – 4/5* unplaced)

Race 5: 28.0% of the remaining units went through – 5/1 & 6/1 (10/3*)

Race 6: 4.5% of the units secured the dividend – 16/1 & 33/1 (4/6*)

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Wincanton: 

Leg 1 (2.00): 1 (Captain Cattistock) & 3 (Darcy Ward)

Leg 2 (2.30): 2 (Innisfree Lad), 5 (Lex Talionis) & 8 (Daytime Ahead)

Leg 3 (3.05): 6 (Hope’s Wishes), 3 (Rouergate) & 5 (She’s Gina)

Leg 4 (3.40): 6 (City Supreme) & 4 (Somchine)

Leg 5 (4.15): 4 (Sonoftheking), 1 (Achille) & 2 (Blackmill)

Leg 6 (4.45): 1 (Unioniste) & 2 (Carraig Mor)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

*Apologies for the late arrival of the scheduled 7.00 service on Platform 1 this morning - several family members misbehaving on the line just outside Bristol...

 

2.00: This is how I started last year’s corresponding analysis’; “The following statement could hardly be classed as ‘rocket science’ but fellow ‘Potters’ will hopefully appreciate what is meant when stating that the Wincanton dividend could just as easily pay five pounds today as £5k.  The ‘make up’ of the races suggest that a small dividend is the call though such is the fragility of the form of the horses on offer at the track today that literally anything could happen”.  If you look above, you will determine that there was a huge dividend declared but the amazing point to consider for all people considering playing the Placepot on a regular basis, is that at the halfway stage, the Placepot was only paying £3.73 before developing into £13,537.30 three races later!  The other point to consider today is the ground as rain is still raining here in Bristol which is not too far north of Wincanton.  The wet stuff is on the radar to hit Wincanton from the time of writing until lunchtime.  CAPTAIN CATTISTOCK will have few (if any) problems with the conditions whereby his is the first name on the team sheet ahead of DARCY WARD who won on his last start on soft going.  It’s worth noting that Nick Schofield rode Run To Milan the last day he won but the popular pilot partners Darcy Ward on this occasion.

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Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 4/5 favourite was beaten in a win only contest behind the 9/1 winner of what was the fourth race on the card twelve months ago.

Record of the course winner in the opening event:

2/2—Captain Cattistock (soft & heavy)

 

2.30: INNISFREE LAD is the call on this ground, especially as the drop back in trip will mean that he will be staying on strongly when others of cried enough, the pick of which are nominated as LEX TALIONIS and another ‘mud merchant’ in DAYTIME AHEAD.

Favourite factor:  Favourites have won three of the last seven renewals though that said, the other four gold medallists during the period were returned at priced ranging between 11/2 and 10/1.

Record of the course winners in the second race:

1/2—Stonemadforspeed (good)

2/4—Daytime Ahead (soft & heavy)

 

3.05: Heavy ground course winner HOPE’S WISHES has to be the each way call with the weather misbehaving (as usual) at the time of writing.  The fact that Venetia Williams ran 100/1 chance ROUERGATE at Cheltenham the other week is an indication that she should go well in this grade/company, whilst SHE’S GINA completes my trio against the other five contenders in what will hopefully remain a ‘dead eight’ contest.

Favourite factor: Last year’s 8/15 favourite was beaten but ran well enough to secure a Placepot position.

Record of the course winner in the field:

1/1—Hope’s Wishes (heavy)

 

3.40: CITY SUPREME and SOMECHINE appeal as the value for money calls in this short field event with both horses able to act under the prevailing conditions.  CITY SUPREME has been off for a while and patience could be rewarded connections now, whilst SOMCHINE is something of a course specialist having recorded two of his six victories here at Wincanton.  It’s also worth noting that the Seamus Mullins representative has finished ‘in the three’ in 60% of his assignments to date.  New readers might want to know that the term ‘short field’ relates to 5/6/7 runners races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way and Placepot perspectives.

Favourite factor: One of the two 5/2 joint favourites claimed a Placepot position by winning this event last year.

Record of the course winner in the fourth contest on the card:

2/6—Somchine (soft & heavy)

 

4.15: You might have to hurry to obtain the respective prices of 10/1 and 25/1 about SONOFTHEKING and ACHILLE this morning, as I anticipate both horses being backed down to around the 7/1 and 16/1 marks by the time that the shops open for business later this morning.  This pair offer value for money from my viewpoint, whilst adding BLACKMILL into the Placepot equation.  Colin Tizzard confuses things towards the top of the market by running two horses, though The Cider Maker or Cucklington fail to appeal at the prices on offer at the time of writing.

Favourite factor: Last year’s 10/3 favourite was unplaced in another short field contest on the card.

Record of the course winners in the field:

1/2—Sonoftheking (soft)

1/2—Invicta Lake (good)

2/7—Cucklington (2 x soft)

4/11—Goring One (2 x soft – good – good to firm)

1/9—General Girling (heavy)

 

4.45: Although Distracted is a heavy ground course winner, the ten-year-old should be comfortable brushed aside in the company of UNIONISTE and CARRAIG MOR, though choosing between this pair is a tough call.  The two horses are listed in order of preference only because of the heavy ground success by the first named Paul Nicholls raider, whilst pilot David Maxwell will be riding with plenty of confidence given that his last two mounts won.

Favourite factor: Last year’s 4/6 market leader finished behind horses which filled the frame at 16/1 & 33/1 which put the icing on the Placepot cake and no mistake!

Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/1—Unioniste (heavy)

1/1—Distracted (heavy)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Placepot Pointers – Tuesday 27th March

HEREFORD – MARCH 27

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £753.80 (6 favourites – No winners – 1 placed – 5 unplaced)

 

Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Hereford: 

Leg 1 (2.15): 7 (Salix) & 1 (Aardwolf)

Leg 2 (2.45): 1 (Rolling Dylan), 3 (Three Ways), 2 (Geordie Des Champs) & 5 (Jeu Du Mots)

Leg 3 (3.15): 1 (Jurby) & 2 (Westend Story)

Leg 4 (3.45): 4 (Easter In Paris), 1 (Hepburn) & 2 (Lady Robyn)

Leg 5 (4.15): 4 (Act Now) & 5 (Bridane Rebel)

Leg 6 (4.45): 3 (Jimmy Bell), 2 (Westerberry) & 5 (Pink Tara)

Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.15: The first factor to mention is the overnight rain down here in the west-country which should eradicate the word “good” from the description of the ground yesterday/evening.  Two winners of last year’s corresponding card return to defend their respective titles, though that’s just about all I care to remember from twelve months ago when just one favourite finished in the frame (exact science).  SALIX arguably has more potential than AARDWOLF having had just the one run over timber to date, and that in a warm juvenile event at Kempton on the second day of the Christmas meeting at the Sunbury circuit. Only sent off that day as a 2/1 chance on debut, Ben Pauling’s raider is expected to prove that the initial effort was wide of the mark in terms of his potential. It’s interesting to note that there has been a little money for ROMANOR overnight which would create interest if the support is maintained later this morning.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 9/4 market leader could only beat one horse home twelve months ago in a short field contest, with horses returned at 7/1 and 10/3 filling the frame.  New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses qualify from each way & Placepot perspectives.

 

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2.45: Last year’s winner was returned at 33/1 and I would not put anyone off including JEU DU MOTS in their Placepot permutation this afternoon in a race which should not prove difficult to win.  Lizzy Kelly’s mount receives plenty of weight from the three rivals here, an ‘edge’ which is compounded by the pilot’s useful three pound claim.  Yes, ROLLING DYLAN, THREE WAYS and GEORDIE DES CHAMPS (listed in order of preference) should have enough in hand of the outsider of the party, but not enough to exclude the Nick Williams raider in this grade/company in a ‘win only’ event which could be run at a false pace.

Favourite factor: Last year’s 6/5 favourites was beaten 35 lengths when finishing third of just four finishers.

 

3.15: The last 26 horses saddled by Philip Hobbs have been beaten, the kind of ‘form’ that I have been talking about for some time now which gives yours truly no sense of pleasure at all.  Philip is one of the good guys in the sport and this type of representation is almost unheard of back at the ranch since Philip started training 30 years ago.  It will be Philip’s worst month of March in seventeen years if he does not saddle another winner before Easter Monday, though that is (seemingly) not putting people off backing his runner WESTEND STORY in this event.  According to the gospel of yours truly, the potential joker in the pack is JURBY as far as Philip and his team is concerned.

Favourite factor: The 13/8 market leader was no match for the pair of 5/2 second favourites that filled the forecast positions in another short field event on the card twelve months ago.

 

3.45: EASTER IN PARIS returns to defend his crown and though there are more rivals in opposition on this occasion, Paddy Brennan’s mount is expected to be there or thereabouts at the business end of proceedings.  Certainly her Placepot chance is there for all to see, though the declarations of HEPBURN and LADY ROBYN (to a fashion) suggest that any win stakes should be kept on the low side.

Favourite factor: Last year’s 5/2 market leader was the only horse which failed to complete the course on a wretched afternoon for favourite backers twelve

months ago.

Record of the course winner in the fourth race:

1/1—Easter In Paris (good to soft)

 

4.15: Anthony Honeyball was unable to maintain the momentum of a wonderful run of results in mid-season which the likes of Henderson, Nicholls and other leading trainers would have been proud of at any time of the year.  Anthony’s number of runners have tailed off accordingly, though ACT NOW has been offered the green light in an attempt to follow up his victory in this contest twelve months ago.  RUBY YEATS will come back and win another race sooner rather than later I’ll wager, though perhaps the biggest threat to the selection this time around is BRIDANE REBEL who hails from another trainer who is enjoying a wonderful season; namely Jennie Candlish.

Favourite factor: Last year’s 10/11 runner up was the only favourite to finish in the Placepot frame, though that fact was of no interest to favourite investors on the day.

Record of the course winner in the fifth contest on the card:

1/1—Act Now (good to soft)

 

4.45: Ladbrokes were out on a limb earlier this morning with WESTERBERRY at 25/1 but I see that the ‘magic sign’ has cut the outsider, whilst others have also trimmed PINK TARA in the field.  I believe that both horses could give each way followers a run for their respective monies, though from a win perspective, I prefer the chance of JIMMY BELL.

Favourite factor: The final 3/1 favourite on last year’s card offered a lame attempt to get punters out of jail by finishing last of the seven contenders that completed the course.

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

1/5—Way Of The World (heavy)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.