Posts

Stat of the Day, 30th April 2019

Monday's pick was...

7.30 Windsor : Persian Sun @ 5/2 BOG 5th at 11/2 (tracked leader, pushed along to challenge 3f out, ridden into narrow lead over 1f out, headed entering final furlong, weakened final 100 yards)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

7.40 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Blindingly @ 5/1 BOG

...in a 10-runner, Class 4 Flat Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m on standard ground worth £5531 to the winner...

Why?...

There is no shortage of ins to today's stat selection. But the one we'll major on is the trainer/jockey combination. Ben Haslam is one of those trainers who was going nowhere fast for a number of years before, for one reason or another, picking up the thread. These days he's a handler to keep on side, and here's why:

TJ Combo: Haslam's combination with Andrew 'Midge' Mullen has been electric in the past year. Here at Newcastle, they've combined 33 times during those 12 months, and bagged 11 winners (33%, +58.58, A/E 2.02)

1st Handicap Start: When running a horse in a handicap for the first time in the past two years, Haslam is 2/19 (6 places) for +26.00 (A/E 1.28). One of the two winners was here.

Overall Course form: Overall that the track, Haslam has had 15 winners from 84 starters (17.86, +94.08, A/E 1.46)

That's enough to give us...

... a 1pt win bet on Blindingly @ 5/1 BOG which was available with betfair and Paddy at 8.30pm on Monday (9/2 widely available). To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 7.40 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. I'm out of the country for most of April, but SotD will still be here every day, albeit in slightly different circumstances, click here for the end of March update which explains the plan in fuller detail!

Stat of the Day, 1st April 2019

Saturday's pick was...

5.05 Uttoxeter : Zamparelli @ 11/4 BOG 7th at 13/8 (Held up in rear, mistake 9th, some headway on outside before 14th, weakened 4 out)

Monday's pick runs in the...

5.45 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Your first 30 days for just £1

Busy Street 9/2 BOG

...in a 5-runner, Class 2, A/W Handicap  for 4yo+ over 2m½f on Tapeta worth £15562 to the winner... 

Why?...

This 7 yr old gelding has raced 11 times in the past year and hasn't failed to finish in the first four home, winning three times, showing consistently good form. To date he is 1222441321 on the All-Weather and this includes...

  • 1321 at 2 miles and beyond
  • 2321 after a break of less than 25 days
  • a win and a runner-up finish from two Class 2 outings
  • 1 from 1 here at Newcastle (over C&D)
  • 1 from 1 under today's jockey Mark Crehan...

...who is hardly a household name, but has made a good start to life in the saddle and has (so far) been profitable to follow! To date he has 13 wins from 107 rides (12.2% SR), which is a decent start and although the profits of 142pts (+132.7% ROI) are swollen by a big-odds winner, these are still good figures.

I'd never advocate blindly backing a jockey and I'm more interested in his relationship with trainer Mick Appleby, because of Mark's 13/107 record, he's actually 11/43 (25.6% SR) for 56.4pts (+131.3% ROI) for Mick Appleby and those excellent figures include...

  • 11/36 (30.6%) for 63.4pts (+176.1%) on male horses
  • 10/29 (34.5%) for 22.7pts (+78.4%) on those sent off shorter than 8/1
  • 8/24 (33.3%) for 59.4pts (+247.4%) on those returning from a break of 11-31 days
  • 7/21 (33.3%) for 21.4pts (+101.7%) from those with a top 3 finish LTO
  • and 6/35 (17.1%) for 37.7pts (+107.6%) when Mark has claimed a 7lb allowance

...whilst Crehan + Appleby + sub-8/1 males + 11-31 dslr + top 3 LTO = 6/10 (60% SR) for 21.83pts (+218.3% ROI), including 4 from 8 (50%) for 13.61pts (+170.2%) whe Mark claims 7lbs...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Busy Street 9/2 BOG which was available from Betfair & Paddy Power at 7.20pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 5.45 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. I'm out of the country for most of April, but SotD will still be here every day, albeit in slightly different circumstances, click here for the end of March update which explains the plan in fuller detail!

Stat of the Day, 1st April 2019

Saturday's pick was...

5.05 Uttoxeter : Zamparelli @ 11/4 BOG 7th at 13/8 (Held up in rear, mistake 9th, some headway on outside before 14th, weakened 4 out)

Monday's pick runs in the...

5.45 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Busy Street 9/2 BOG

...in a 5-runner, Class 2, A/W Handicap  for 4yo+ over 2m½f on Tapeta worth £15562 to the winner... 

Why?...

This 7 yr old gelding has raced 11 times in the past year and hasn't failed to finish in the first four home, winning three times, showing consistently good form. To date he is 1222441321 on the All-Weather and this includes...

  • 1321 at 2 miles and beyond
  • 2321 after a break of less than 25 days
  • a win and a runner-up finish from two Class 2 outings
  • 1 from 1 here at Newcastle (over C&D)
  • 1 from 1 under today's jockey Mark Crehan...

...who is hardly a household name, but has made a good start to life in the saddle and has (so far) been profitable to follow! To date he has 13 wins from 107 rides (12.2% SR), which is a decent start and although the profits of 142pts (+132.7% ROI) are swollen by a big-odds winner, these are still good figures.

I'd never advocate blindly backing a jockey and I'm more interested in his relationship with trainer Mick Appleby, because of Mark's 13/107 record, he's actually 11/43 (25.6% SR) for 56.4pts (+131.3% ROI) for Mick Appleby and those excellent figures include...

  • 11/36 (30.6%) for 63.4pts (+176.1%) on male horses
  • 10/29 (34.5%) for 22.7pts (+78.4%) on those sent off shorter than 8/1
  • 8/24 (33.3%) for 59.4pts (+247.4%) on those returning from a break of 11-31 days
  • 7/21 (33.3%) for 21.4pts (+101.7%) from those with a top 3 finish LTO
  • and 6/35 (17.1%) for 37.7pts (+107.6%) when Mark has claimed a 7lb allowance

...whilst Crehan + Appleby + sub-8/1 males + 11-31 dslr + top 3 LTO = 6/10 (60% SR) for 21.83pts (+218.3% ROI), including 4 from 8 (50%) for 13.61pts (+170.2%) whe Mark claims 7lbs...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Busy Street 9/2 BOG which was available from Betfair & Paddy Power at 7.20pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 5.45 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. I'm out of the country for most of April, but SotD will still be here every day, albeit in slightly different circumstances, click here for the end of March update which explains the plan in fuller detail!

Stat of the Day, 22nd March 2019

Thursday's pick was...

4.35 Chepstow : Treasure Dillon @ 4/1 BOG WON at 15/8 (Chased leaders, went 2nd 4th, led narrowly before 3 out, clear next, won easily easing down)

Friday's pick runs in the...

6.00 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Porrima 17/2 BOG

...in a 14-runner, Class 5, A/W Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m on Tapeta worth £3752 to the winner... 

Why?

This 4 yr old filly has finished 112 in her three runs since returning from a 20-week break with all three runs coming here at Newcastle under today's jockey Andrew Mullen and she'd quite likely have won all three but for blowing the start last time out.

To date, she has 3 wins and 2 places from 8 runs on the All-Weather, including of relevance today...

  • 2 & 2 from 6 here at Newcastle
  • 2 & 2 from 6 on the straight
  • 3 & 2 from 5 in Jan-March
  • 2 & 1 from 5 in this grade
  • 2 & 2 from 4 under Andrew Mullen
  • 2 & 1 from 4 within 30 days of her last run
  • 2 & 1 from 3 as a 4yr old
  • 2 & 1 from 3 at odds of 4/1 and shorter (which now looks likely!)
  • and 2 & 1 from 3 on std to slow tracks

Her trainer Ben Haslam is 17 from 87 (19.5% SR) for 128.3pts (+147.5% ROI) in A/W hcps on this track since the start of 2017 and these produce a host of profitable angles, including 8 winners from 27 (29.6%) for 23.7pts (+87.9%) at Class 5, but it's the trainer's record with today's jockey that I want to focus on today, as...

...Mullen + Haslam = 8/28 (28.6% SR) for 72.5pts (+259.1% ROI) over the last 12 months, with the following of note here...

  • on the A/W : 7/27 (25.9%) for 52.6pts (+194.8%)
  • on tapeta : 7/26 (26.9%) for 53.6pts (+206.1%)
  • at Newcastle : 7/24 (29.2%) for 55.6pts (+231.6%)
  • in handicaps : 8/23 (34.8%) for 77.5pts (+337.1%)
  • odds below 5/1 : 5/13 (38.5%) for 11.3pts (+86.8%)
  • Class 5 : 3/8 (37.5%) for 5.55pts (+69.3%)
  • and females are 3/7 (42.9%) for 52.2pts (+745.1%)

It's fairly obvious that the top 4 items of that list are where we should focus, because Mullen + Haslam + Newcastle Tapeta hcps = 7/20 (35% SR) for 59.6pts (+298% ROI), from which...

  • sub-5/1 = 5/11 (45.5%) for 13.3pts (+120.8%)
  • females = 3/7 (42.9%) for 52.2pts (+745.1%)
  • Class 5 = 3/5 (60%) for 8.55pts (+171%)
  • Class 5 & sub-5/1 = 3/5 (60%) for 8.55pts (+171%)
  • sub-5/1 females = 1/2 (50%) for 1.85pts (+92.5%)

...and Class 5 females sent off shorter than 5/1 are also 1 from 2 for 1.85pts and just happen to be Porrima's last two outings...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Porrima 17/2 BOG which was available from Bet365, Betfred & Totesport at 5.50pm on Thursday, whilst Skybet were another half point bigger! To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 6.00 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 1st March 2019

Thursday's Pick was...

3.20 Musselburgh : Sky Khan @ 3/1 BOG 3rd at 10/3 (Held up in close 3rd, pushed along after 4 out, ridden before 2 out, kept on to press for 2nd run-in, no chance with winner)

Friday's pick runs in the...

8.00 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Star Cracker 6/1 BOG

...in a 13-runner, Class 7, 4yo+, A/W Handicap over 5f on tapeta, worth £2814 to the winner...

Why?

After February fizzled out somewhat, I'm looking for a good start to March via this 7 yr old gelding, a former C&D winner now running off a mark 2lbs lower than his last win which was incidentally here over C&D back in November. Allied to the easing of his mark is a drop in class and this must surely represent the best recent chance he has had of winning and becoming the latest course winner for trainer Jim Goldie...

...whose runners are 25/199 (12.6% SR) for 99.3pts (+49.9% ROI) on the Tapeta here at Gosforth Park in the last two years, including of note/relevance today...

  • in handicaps : 25/189 (13.2%) for 109.3pts (+57.8%)
  • in races worth less than £8,000 : 24/179 (13.4%) for 114.2pts (+63.8%)
  • 1 to 8 weeks since last run : 25/173 (14.5%) for 125.2pts (+72.4%)
  • males : 18/154 (11.7%) for 84.1pts (+54.6%)
  • at 5/1 or shorter : 18/59 (30.5%) for 17.7pts (+30.1%)
  • over this 5f C&D : 10/51 (19.6%) for 10.7pts (+21%)
  • 7/8 yr olds : 5/42 (11.9%) for 122.5pts (+291.6%)
  • OR 46-49 : 4/25 916%) for 14.83pts (+59.3%)

...and if we focus on the first five subsets above, we get... male handicappers priced at 5/1 and shorter competing for less than £8,000 after a break of 1 to 8 weeks winning 12 of 40 (30% SR) for 9.94pts (+24.9% ROI), including Primos Comet who won here over this 5f C&D last night under today's jockey Ali Rawlinson!

...which gives us... a 1pt win bet on Star Cracker 6/1 BOG which was available from Betfair & Paddy Power respectively at 5.35pm on Thursday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 8.00 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 15th February 2019

Thursday's Pick was...

4.10 Kelso : Mr Mercurial @ 7/2 BOG 2nd at 11/2 (Chased leaders, went 2nd 11th, led 3 out, bumped on landing last, headed flat, no extra)

Friday's pick runs in the...

7.15 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Ginger Jam @ 11/4 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 6, handicap over 6f on Standard to Slow, worth £2264 to the winner... 

Why?

Nigel Tinkler is a trainer who has successfully flown under the radar for most for quite a long time. He has specialisms, however, which he exploits very well.

The first is his ability to win with horses on their first start in a handicap, a feat which he's reprised on five occasions (from 25 such runners) in the last two years, for +22.5 at SP (A/E 2.94).

Two others I want to mention are somewhat conflated, and they are these: second time in a handicap, and with last time out winners. Second time in a handicap, Tinkler has won with four of 23 in the last two years (+7.50, A/E 1.80), and in the same window he's won with 13 of 58 last day winners (22.41% SR, +13.25, A/E 1.27).

Conflation, or making two different things into one, is a dangerous game. However, on this occasion, looking at handicap second-timers which won on their handicap debut leads us to just four qualifiers, of which two won. That pair were worth +17.5 at SP, at an A/E of 4.00. Obviously a tiny sample size, but the key message is that Nigel Tinkler is very well able to secure and subsequently exploit a competitive handicap mark.

That's the trick we hope will pay here..

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Ginger Jam @ 11/4 BOG which was widely available at 6.30pm on Thursday evening. Skybet, however, were 3/1 at that time if you're able to get that. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 7.15 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 5th February 2019

Monday's Pick was...

6.25 Wolverhampton : Mrs Burbidge @ 13/2 E/W BOG yet to run (result & report to follow)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

6.45 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Macs Blessings @ 7/2 BOG

...in a 12-runner, Class 6, 3yo A/W Handicap over 1m on Tapeta worth £3105 to the winner...

Why?

Well, at first glance a career record of 0/7 isn't inspiring, but after a 3 month break, this 3yr old gelding has made the frame in both of his starts, both on Tapeta in the last 15 days. He was second, beaten by half a length over 7f 15 days ago, looking like needing further, but didn't seem to quite get 9.5f LTO 4 days ago when placed third a neck and ahead behind the winner.

Hopefully a drop back in trip to somewhere between the two will prove enough for third time lucky.

He's by Society Rock, whose 2/3 yr olds running at trips of 5 to 8 furlongs in Class 4 to 6 Tapeta A/W handicaps at odds shorter than 10/1 are 6/30 (20% SR) for 5.66pts (+18.9% ROI), including...

  • at 7f/1m : 4/10 (40%) for 16.68pts (+166.8%)
  • within 14 dslr : 4/10 (40%) for 11.31pts (+113.1%)
  • and at 7f/1m within 14dslr : 3/6 (50%) for 12.46pts (+207.6%)

Now, I admit that 30 runners isn't the best or biggest sample size, I've used for SotD, so let's move on and take a look at UK A/W handicaps over 6f to 1m2f since the start of 2013 in general and more specifically, horses beaten by less than 3 lengths LTO in the previous 5 days ie not beaten by far and quickly turned back out. Such horses are 165/745 (22.2% SR) for 188.5pts (+25.3% ROI) and they throw up a myriad of workable profitable angles you could follow, but I'm going to list "just" 10 today...

  • at odds of 10/1 and shorter : 161/663 (24.3%) for 177.4pts (+26.8%)
  • competing for less than £4,000 : 135/595 (22.7%) for 145.6pts (+24.5%)
  • males are 130/560 (23.2%) for 170.3pts (+30.4%)
  • 4/5 dslr : 117/479 (24.4%) for 203.9pts (+42.6%)
  • 7 to 8.5f : 99/406 (24.4%) for 160.6pts (+39.6%)
  • Class 6 : 89/390 (22.8%) for 128.6pts (+33%)
  • 3rd LTO : 44/205 (21.5%) for 76.6pts (+37.4%)
  • 4 dslr : 59/204 (28.9%) for 157.5pts (+77.2%)
  • on Tapeta : 50/200 (25%) for 74.4pts (+37.2%)
  • and those dropping in trip by 0.5 to 1.5 furlongs are 35/136 (25.7%) for 78.6pts (+57.8%)

Over the last 6 years, plenty of horses have ticked lots of the above boxes and gone on to win, in fact Bobby Joe Leg, currently 7/2 in today's 5.15 race ticks 8 of them, but by virtue of ticking all ten...

 ...today's advice is... a 1pt win bet on Macs Blessings @ 7/2 BOG which was widely available at 5.05pm on Monday evening (but 4/1 @ Bet365). To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 6.45 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 31st January 2019

Wednesday's Pick was...

3.35 Newcastle : Generous Jack @ 3/1 BOG N/R (Meeting Abandoned - snow, frost, brexit etc)

Thursday's pick runs in the...

6.25 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Portledge @ 11/4 BOG

...in a 7-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ A/W Handicap over 7f on Tapeta worth £5387 to the winner...

Why?

Well, admittedly, this 5 yr old gelding's 4 from 23 record doesn't exactly scream "back me!", but does suggest some ability, so I took a closer look and discovered that the 4 from 23 includes 4/13 (30.8% SR) for 21.87pts (+168.2% ROI) on the All-Weather and he has won two of his last four (all here at Newcastle) including a course and distance win last time out 19 days ago.

Now, he's of more interest and I then looked at that 4/13 on the A/W and they contain...

  • 4 wins from 10 over the 7f trip
  • 4 from 10 on tapeta
  • 4 from 9 here at Newcastle
  • 4 from 6 over course and distance
  • 3 from 8 in blinkers
  • 2 from 4 at odds of 4/1 and shorter
  • and 2 from 4 in Class 4 contests worth less than £6k to the winner.

Obviously all of the above apply today and he'll now seek to improve on his trainer's already impressive record on this track, as James Bethell's A/W handicappers sent off at odds of 12/1 and shorter are 17 from 65 (26.2% SR) for 58.8pts (+90.5% ROI) on the Newcastle tapeta and these include of relevance today...

  • males : 14/48 (29.2%) for 49.5pts (+103.1%)
  • at Class 4 : 8/27 (29.6%) for 31.9pts (+118%)
  • less than 3 weeks rest : 10/24 (41.7%) for 60.4pts (+251.4%)
  • ridden by PJ McDonald : 7/21 933.3%) for 24.1pts (+114.7%)
  • over this 7f course and distance : 6/13 (46.2%) for 39.1pts (+300.9%)
  • and in January (which we are still, just!) : 4/12 (33.3%) for 8pts (+66.6%)

 ...giving us a 1pt win bet on Portledge @ 11/4 BOG as was available from Hills & Sky at 6.00pm on Wednesday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 6.25 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 29th January 2019

Monday's Pick was...

4.50 Wolverhampton : French Mix @ 11/4 BOG WON at 5/2 (Led 2f, remained prominent, led again over 1f out, ran on well to win by 3.25 lengths)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

3.35 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Mumgos Debut @ 5/1 BOG

...in a 7-runner, Class 4, 5yo+ Handicap Chase over 2m½f on Good To Soft ground worth £4614 to the winner...

Why?

This 11 yr old gelding had a wind op in mid-November last year and returned to the track 27 days ago. He's now 2 from 2 after the op, with wins 27 and 14 days ago, both in C4 hcp chases over today's trip under today's jockey on good to soft and soft ground. That win a fortnight ago was here at Newcastle over course and distance and was actually an SotD pick!

In a way, I'm going back to the same well as many of the stats from a fortnight ago are still valid albeit slightly different, so for those who didn't see it, here's what suggests Mumgos Debut will go well again today.

His record in handicap chases stands at 7 from 30 (23.3% SR) for 12.39pts (+41.3% ROI) profit and here are some of the ways (all relevant today), he got those wins...

  • all 7 came from 25 (28%) runs wearing a tongue tie for 17.39pts (+69.6%)
  • 5/21 (23.8%) for 10.7pts (+50.9%) at Class 4
  • 6/20 (30%) for 19.73pts (+90.1%) off a mark (OR) greater than 95
  • 5/14 (35.7%) for 17.78pts (+127%) after less than 3 weeks rest
  • 4/12 (33.3%) for 4.89pts (+40.8%) under Derek Fox
  • 3/11 (27.3%) for 4.26pts (+38.7%) over this 2m½f trip
  • 2/6 (33.3%) for 0.28pts (+68.4%) here at Newcastle
  • and 3/3 (100%) for 18.08pts (+602.6%) on Good to Soft ground

In addition to these stats, his form in 5 runs here at Newcastle reads 222211 and from the above... at Class 4 off a mark north of 95 wearing a tongue tie with less than 3 weeks rest = 3from 5 (60% SR) for 16.08pts (+321.6% ROI).

Since Easter of last year, his trainer Lucinda Russell has had 7 winners from 18 (38.9% SR) on the NH track here at Newcastle and these have generated 13.25pts profit at an ROI of 73.6%, including the following of note today...

  • in handicaps : 6/16 (37.5%) for 12.6pts (+78.8%)
  • males : 6/15 (40%) for 13.64pts (+90.9%)
  • prizes of £4k-£8k : 5/11 (45.5%) for 14.4pts (+130.9%)
  • shorter than 13/2 SP : 7/12 (58.3%) for 19.25pts (+160.4%)
  • Class 4 : 4/8 (50%) for 13.96pts (+174.5%)
  • Derek Fox : 5/8 (62.5%) for 17.21pts (+215.1%)
  • and over this 2m½f trip : 3/7 (42.9%) for 12.31pts (+175.9%)

...whilst from the above... male handicappers sent off at 6/1 and shorter tilting at a prize of £4k to £8k are 4/7 (57.1% SR) for 15.74pts (+224.9% ROI), from which they are 3/5at Class 4, 3/4 under Derek Fox, 3/4 over this 2m½f trip and 3 from 3 under the jockey/class/distance combo for 16.31pts at an ROI of 543.7%!

And finally (!) for today, it's worth noting that in UK Class 4 handicap chases over 2m/2m½f on good to soft ground since 2014 (definitely a niche angle!), males running at the same class as an LTO hcp chase win in the previous 3 weeks are 10 from 21 (47.6% SR) for 24.15pts (+115% ROI)...

 ..giving us a 1pt win bet on Mumgos Debut @ 5/1 BOG as was available from Betfair, BetVictor & SkyBet at 6.15pm on Monday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.35 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 25th January 2019

Thursday's Pick was...

3.45 Fakenham : Strictlyadancer @ 10/3 BOG N/R (Meeting abandoned - frost)

Friday's pick runs in the...

7.45 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Hanakatoba @ 5/1 BOG : N/R (Withdrawn at 7:56am Fri 25 Jan  Reason: Vets Cert - Temperature)

...in a 9-runner, Class 6, 3yo A/W Handicap Hurdle over 5on Tapeta worth £3105 to the winner...

Why?

As usual, more on this later...

...so for now, it's a 1pt win bet on Hanakatoba @ 5/1 BOG as was available from SkyBet & Bet365 at 6.10pm on Thursday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 7.45 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 22nd January 2019

Monday's Pick was...

2.05 Warwick : Ange Des Malberaux @ 7/1 BOG WON at 7/1 (Held up in rear, headway before 14th, 2nd 2 out, led before last, clear towards finish, won easily by 5 lengths)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

5.15 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Straight Right @ 7/2 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 2, 4yo+ A/W Handicap over 7f on Tapeta worth £15752 to the winner...

Why?

This 5 yr old gelding is pretty lightly raced with just four runs in the last year, but he did win two of them and make the frame in another, including a Class 2 course and distance success here. He's 2 from 4 on standard A/W going, all at Class 2, 2/2 at 7f and 1/1 over C&D.

He's by Siyouni, whose offspring are 23 from 106 (21.7% SR) for 55.4pts (+52.2% ROI) on A/W tracks over the last two years and these include of relevance today...

  • 11/40 (27.5%) for 23.5pts (+58.8%) over 7f
  • 4/13 (30.8%) for 22.1pts (+170.1%) at Class 2
  • and 3/8 (37.5%) for 25.8pts (+322.7%) here at Newcastle

And he's trained by Andrew Balding who is 5 from 12 (41.7% SR) for 9.4pts (+78.3% ROI) over the last 10 days including saddling up 4 winners from 7 runers over 6 to 8 furlongs, whilst more long-term, his sub-5/1 male A/W handicappers are 57 from 167 (34.1% SR) for 41.2pts (+24.7% ROI) since the start of 2014 and with today's race in mind, those 167 runners are...

  • 35/100 (35%) for 31.79pts (+31.79%) after no more than 30 days rest
  • 18/32 (56.3%) for 29.59pts (+92.5%) since the start of 2018
  • 8/21 (38.1%) for 5.52pts (+26.3%) over 7f
  • and 12 from 19 (63.2%) for 19.45pts (+102.4%) from those racing after no more than 30 days rest since the start of 2018

...giving us a 1pt win bet on Straight Right @ 7/2 BOG as was offered by half a dozen firms at 5.10pm on Monday evening, whilst Bet365 were another half point better still. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 5.15 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. A quick headsup about the next couple of picks : I'm away for the weekend from tomorrow afternoon, so Matt's in the hotseat for Saturday's pick and I'll be doing Monday's pick when I get home, but it won't appear until after midnight Sunday at the earliest! Sorry for any inconvenience caused.

Stat of the Day, 15th January 2019

Monday's Pick was...

4.00 Fontwell : Sky Full of Stars @ 9/2 BOG WON at 10/3 (Chased leaders, 2nd before 4 out, led before next, driven out)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

3.20 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Mumgos Debut @ 5/2 BOG

...in a 5-runner, Class 4, 5yo+ Handicap Chase over 2m½f on Good To Soft ground worth £4614 to the winner...

Why?

A little shorter in price than I normally aim at, but only five runners are set to go to post and this one comes here off the back of a win at Ayr on soft ground 13 days ago. Now running at the same class and trip off the same mark (105) and under the same jockey (Derek Fox), I see no reason why he wouldn't be involved in the shake-up once again.

His record in handicap chases stands at 6 from 29 (20.7% SR) for 9.78pts (+33.7% ROI) profit and here are some of the ways (all relevant today), he got those wins...

  • all 6 came from 24 (25%) runs wearing a tongue tie for 14.78pts (+61.6%)
  • 5/19 (26.3%) for 17.11pts (+90.1%) off a mark (OR) greater than 95
  • 4/13 (30.8%) for 15.16pts (+116.6%) after less than 3 weeks rest
  • 4/20 (20%) for 8.08pts (+40.4%) at Class 4
  • 3/5 (60%) for 3.42pts (+68.4%) when sent off as favourite
  • 3/11 (27.3%) for 2.28pts (+20.7%) under Derek Fox
  • 2/2 (100%) for 15.47pts (+773.5%) on Good to Soft ground
  • and 2/10 920%) for 1.64pts (+16.4%) over this 2m½f trip

In addition to these stats, his form in 5 runs here at Newcastle reads 22221 and from the above... at Class 4 off a mark north of 95 wearing a tongue tie with less than 3 weeks rest = 2 from 4 (50% SR) for 13.47pts (+336.% ROI).

Over the last 9 months, his trainer Lucinda Russell has had 6 winners from 16 (37.5% SR) on the NH track here at Newcastle and these have generated 11.64pts profit at an ROI of 72.8%, including the following of note today...

  • in handicaps : 5/14 (35.7%) for 10.99pts (+78.5%)
  • males : 5/13 (38.5%) for 12.03pts (+92.5%)
  • prizes of £4k-£8k : 5/13 (38.5%) for 11.39pts (+87.6%)
  • shorter than 13/2 SP : 6/11 (54.5%) for 16.64pts (+151.3%)
  • Class 4 : 3/7 (42.9%) for 11.35pts (+162.2%)
  • Derek Fox : 4/6 (66.6%) for 15.59pts (+259.9%)
  • and over this 2m½f trip : 2/5 (40%) for 10.7pts (+214%)

...whilst from the above... male handicappers sent off at 6/1 and shorter tilting at a prize of £4k to £8k are 3/6 (50% SR) for 13.13pts (+218.9% ROI), from which they are 2/4 at Class 4, 2/3 under Derek Fox, 2/3 over this 2m½f trip and 2 from 2 under the jockey/class/distance combo!

And finally (!) for today, it's worth noting that in UK Class 4 handicap chases over 2m/2m½f on good to soft ground since 2014 (definitely a niche angle!), males running at the same class as an LTO hcp chase win in the previous 3 weeks are 9 from 19 (47.4% SR) for 22.5pts (+118.6% ROI)...

...giving us a 1pt win bet on Mumgos Debut @ 5/2 BOG as was offered by Betfair and Paddy Power at 5.40pm on Monday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.20 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 12th January 2019

Friday's Pick was...

7.45 Wolverhampton : A Sure Welcome @ 7/2 BOG WON at 7/1 (Chased leader, ridden and ran on to lead well inside final furlong, winning by a nose)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

6.30 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Athollblair Boy @ 3/1 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ A/W Handicap over 6f on tapeta worth £3752 to the winner...

Why?

Firstly, a warning...this 6 yr old is hardly prolific at 4 from 38 and without a win in his last 8 outings, so why would he now make it 5 from 39?

Well, that last win was a Class 4 C&D contest when he won off today's mark of 76 back in March of last year and he showed signs of a return to form in another C4 C&D contest last time out, when 3rd under today's jockey 10 days ago, just 2 necks behind the winner and course specialist Nick Vedder in a tight finish and he now takes a drop in class.

And whilst he is admittedly 4 from 38, that doesn't tell the whole story, as he has 3 wins and 6 places from just 13 runs on the tapeta here at Newcastle, including 2 wins and 3 places from over the 6f course and distance and he's 2 from 2 after less than 2 weeks rest here.

That's possibly not enough data to convince you yet, so like A Sure Welcome yesterday, this one comes from a sire whose progeny excel on this surface. Basically offspring of the sire Frozen Power are 25/127 (19.7% SR) for 71.6pts (+56.3% ROI) over 5 to 8.5 furlongs on tapeta and these include of relevance today...

  • in fields of at least 7 runners : 24/121 (19.8%) for 74.7pts (+61.7%)
  • for prizes below £4k : 22/100 (22%) for 86.4pts (+86.4%)
  • 4-45 days since last run : 21/98 (21.4%) for 75.7pts (+77.3%)
  • in handicaps : 18/95 (19%) for 68.7pts (+72.3%)
  • off a mark of 56-79 : 18/78 (23.1%) for 85.3pts (+109.4%)
  • at evens to 8/1 : 23/69 (33.3%) for 53.5pts (+77.5%)
  • beaten by 0.25 to 4 lengths LTO : 10/37 (27%) for 25.7pts (+69.5%)
  • and 4-10 dslr : 8/22 (36.4%) for 8.24pts (+37.5%)

...from which... in handicap fields of 7 or more runners competing  for less than £4k off a mark of 56 or higher at odds of evens to 8/1 some 4 to 45 days after their last run = 12 from 34 (35.3% SR) for 33pts (+97.1% ROI), including 4 winners from (44.4%) for 8.78pts (+97.5%) with no more than 10 days rest.

Another positive is the fact that over the last two years, trainer Nigel Tinkler's Flat/AW handicappers dropping down a grade are 20 from 84 (23.8% SR) for 48.8pts (+58.1% ROI), including...

  • within 30 days of last run : 19/67 (28.4%) for 62.8pts (+93.7%)
  • sub-12/1 runners are 19/57 (33.3%) for 57.6pts (+101.1%)
  • OR 56-79 : 16/48 (3.3%) for 66.9pts (+139.3%)
  • 6/7 furlongs : 12/38 (31.6%) for 47.3pts (+124.5%)
  • 6 furlongs : 9/29 (31%) for 33.6pts (+115.8%)
  • 2nd to 4th LTO : 10/24 (41.7%) for 33.9pts (+141%)
  • beaten by more than a neck but less than 3L LTO : 6/16 (37.5%) for 16.59pts (+103.6%)
  • on tapeta : 4/13 (30.8%) for 4.92pts (+37.8%)
  • Class 5 : 5/12 (41.7%) for 11.25pts (+93.8%)
  • and here at Newcastle : 3/12 (25%) for 4.02pts (+33.5%)

...and from that little lot...over 5f to 1m off OR of 56-79 @ sub-12/1 odds within 30 days of last run = 12/25 (48% SR) for 48.38pts (+193.5% ROI) and this includes 8 winners from 12 (66.6%) for 24.13pts (+201.1%) from those with a top 4 finish last time out...

...pointing to a 1pt win bet on Athollblair Boy @ 3/1 BOG as was offered by a half dozen or so firms at 6.35pm on Friday evening, although those with an unrestricted SkyBet account could get an extra third of a point if they were lucky/quick. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 6.30 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Newcastle Punting Pointers: The Angles of the North?

In my last article I accidentally stumbled into unpicking all-weather course form and the relative importance of it at each track in the UK, writes Jon Shenton.  It wasn’t my intention to evaluate anything in that area; however, when exploring a vast ocean of data sometimes you end up going where the wind takes you as thoughts develop around the words and numbers on paper.

If you didn’t read that article (link here), a tentative conclusion was that a previous course win was more indicative of a likely follow up victory at Newcastle than any other all-weather surface.

Until that moment I had very limited interest in the tapeta at Gosforth Park as a vehicle for punting. Aside from the odd evening “leisure” bet, almost universally doomed to failure, I’ve hitherto watched perplexed from afar.

To my untrained eye the victors seemed to be pattern-less in terms of my usual all weather starting points of pace and draw, the immaturity of the surface also meaning data regarding trainer, sire and anything else you can think of is less reliable from which to build even vague conclusions.

So, when the intel from that last article showed Newcastle in a favourable light it got me thinking: it was time to have a proper delve into the delights of the northeast venue.

There is a uniqueness regarding Newcastle compared with its AW cousins. Namely, that it has a straight mile. Apart from Newcastle’s five to eight-furlong and Southwell’s five furlong straight track all other races on AW in Britain and Ireland are contested around a bend.   This could be of potential interest for a number of reasons. As I’ve already alluded to, the usual staples of pace and draw could be less important without a turn than we see at other AW venues?

 

Why could pace and draw be less relevant at the Newcastle straight track?

To start with, on a straight track all of the horses compete over exactly the same distance.  This is not the case when racing around a bend where inside draws have a shorter distance to run.

Imagine an Olympic 200m final around a tight bend where all athletes start at the same point.  Not even a peak Usain Bolt content on fried chicken could overcome a lane 8 / car park draw unless he was running against people like me.

As well as the emphasis of draw on a turning track the AW tracks typically are tight in nature, with shortish home straights. This often leads to greater extremes of front runner bias. Thus finding a competitive front running animal with an inside draw on the AW is usually a compelling wagering proposition.

All of this points to Newcastle being a fairer test over the straight track than the other artificial surfaces racing around a turn. Fairer for the runners and riders, but trickier for punters?

Could it be that factors such as course form, pedigree or trainer angles play a more significant part in determining the outcome of a race? That’s all supposition at the moment, but let’s dive into it.

A continuation of the course form theme seems like as good a place to start as anywhere.

 

Course Form at Newcastle

A quick refresher, the graph below is from the previous article, it shows the adjusted strike rates at UK all-weather courses split by horses’ number of previous wins at the same track.  The adjusted view was to reflect/standardise the effect of different field sizes. In other words, a race at Newcastle should be harder to win as the average number of runners is 10.9 whilst at Chelmsford it’s a more meagre 9.05.

 

 

The green line to a clear degree illustrates that Newcastle previous winners have a higher probability of a future win than course winners at other AW tracks.

By adopting the same method but splitting the Newcastle races by straight/round track performance we hopefully will find something of interest. Firstly, we need to take field sizes into account.  Straight track races are popular with an average of 11.28 entrants per event, 1.11 more than the round track average field size of 10.17.

 

NEWCASTLE Avg Field Multiplier
5-8F STRAIGHT 11.28 1.16
8.5F+ ROUND 10.17 1.05
OVERALL 10.90 1.12

 

Using the same format, the graph below shows the profile of previous course winners’ strike rates by distance of race.

 

 

I think this is quite insightful.  There appears to be an indication that previous course form is more valuable in predicting a winner over the straight track of 5 to 8 furlongs, than it is over the longer trip.

Now the volume of runners is quite small, particularly on the round course where two or more previous course wins are concerned but there is definitely enough to upgrade a previous course win on the straight track in comparison.

 

Pace on the straight track

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Lesson number 1 in Geegeez.co.uk land is that pace is a game changer in punting life.  It’s certainly been a key component in my improvement in race reading and is just about the first thing I look at when trying to evaluate any equine contest.

We’ve already generated the supposition that front running pace bias may not be as important at Newcastle as it is on the other UK all-weather tracks due to the fairer nature of the straight; but do the numbers back that up?

 

Well, yes. The above chart is eye-opening. It illustrates the Actual/Expected performance by pace score for each of the all-weather tracks in the UK. The data covers all 3YO+ and 4YO+ handicaps and all races up to 8f in distance.

You can see the old adage of “pace wins the race” is pronounced across all of the tracks apart from Newcastle.

The blob annotated with “a” above shows the fate of hold up horses on the straight track at Newcastle. There is clear daylight between their performances when compared with late runners at every other track. In fact, horses that are held up actually fare well even in comparison to their front running rivals at the track. Certainly, trailblazers are not the be all and end all that they can be on some tracks, as the blob “b” illustrates.  Both front runners and hold up horses have an identical A/E performance of 0.99.

Lumping in all races from the minimum trip to the mile is potentially dangerous and clearly analysis by specific trip length may lead to slightly different and more solid conclusions.  However, in terms of proving a point that race profiles are different on the straight Newcastle track to the typical AW ones I think this does enough. The bottom line is don’t be put off by a horse stalking from the back of the pack at Gosforth Park.

 

Draw

Hopefully it’s reasonably understandable but evaluating full draw implications of a straight vs. round track is a tough ask for an article of this length given the variables in distance, race type, number of runners and the like.

That said, by way of a quick guide, below is a broad-brush summary of Newcastle draw performance.  It only considers handicap races of 10-12 runners.  It’s also important to note I’m using actual draw position (i.e. accounting for non-runners), not racecard draw number.

 

 

What does the above tell us? In truth, not a great deal! Maybe, just maybe, there is a hint of bias towards the wings of the track, especially for races over 5, 6 and 8 furlongs. Sometimes this makes sense as races develop against a rail and perhaps that is what is at play here.  But… for no obvious reason the 7f distance contradicts other distance data by suggesting there is a hint of middle track bias. In conclusion, it’s all pretty marginal and if you find the right horse, with the right profile, the draw at this course appears to be less relevant than most in terms of stall position.

 

Sires

It’s quite early to draw meaningful conclusions on stallions to follow at Newcastle but the below table shows some potentially emerging talent.

It’s derived from geegeez.co.uk’s Query Tool and illustrates all runners at 20/1 or less; and to qualify for the table an A/E of 1.25 is required, as well as a 10% ROI.

 

The volumes are generally too thin to draw firm conclusions and build bankable, watertight angles, especially as some of the performance will be driven by individual animals repeatedly winning. Even so, it’s a good list to keep in mind to help generate a shortlist when evaluating a race, particularly when form, or course form, is at a premium.

There is merit in just pulling out a couple to discuss briefly. The most successful couple of sires on the Newcastle all weather, in terms of winner numbers, are the renowned Sea The Stars and the progressive Lope De Vega.

 

Sea The Stars

Firstly, Sea The Stars… His progeny’s 15 wins are comprised of 13 individual horses.   John Gosden’s Champion Stayer, Stradivarius, is the most illustrious, having recorded his first success (on his third run) at Newcastle, over the straight mile. That is the very same course and distance that stablemate Enable made her debut on, incidentally. Clearly, Johnny G likes to blood a top class type on the tapeta here.

In fact, it’s not uncommon for horses of real quality to get an early spin on the Gosforth Park sands. The apparent level playing field of the track is a feature which attracts some of the elite stables to test their youngsters at a formative stage of their careers.

Reverting to Sea The Stars, below shows his progeny runs by race code.

 

Not bad all round but there is a clear distinction between AW and Turf data. If we zoom in a little further and evaluate the performance by the UK’s different AW venues, we get the following.

 

Here we see that Newcastle is driving the superb AW performance. Yes, Southwell, Chelmsford and Lingfield all show promise and we should take note of the offspring of Sea The Stars when they run at those venues. But Newcastle is where it’s at.

 

Lope De Vega

Lope De Vega was campaigned exclusively in France under the tutelage of Andre Fabre and doesn’t on the face of it have a particularly strong all-weather pedigree. However, much like Sea The Stars, his progeny has performed generally better on the artificial surfaces, in win strike rate and profit/loss terms at least.

Newcastle performance is strong (see the table below), but so too are Chelmsford and Wolverhampton. The surface at the midlands track is also Tapeta so that makes some sort of sense (albeit that it was polytrack until 2014). If you delve into sire records, quite frequently a good Newcastle record can be indicative of a better than average Wolves one and vice versa. The Chelmsford one is harder to explain, though it may be simply that Lope De Vega is a top class sire all round.

 

 

If we take that trio of courses and check P&L performance over different trips, we can see below that Lope De Vega offspring are less productive over 5 and 6 furlongs than other distances.

 

 

So, I think we have a potentially nice micro here: Lope De Vega progeny, 20/1 or shorter, 7-14f at Chelmsford, Wolves or Newcastle. 27.6% strike rate, 52% ROI to level stakes with strong A/E and IV numbers. The table below shows the precise numbers.

All Lope De Vega at 20/1 or less, 7-14f at Chelmsford/Wolves/Newcastle:

 

Trainers

A final word on the trainers who have taken to Newcastle’s newish surface, the above table shows those yards who have had 25+ runs, an A/E of 1.00 or above and an ROI of 10%+.

 

Before I talk about the table a couple of mentions for trainers not on the list. As stated earlier a number of elite trainers use Newcastle as a proving ground for their potential stable stars. John Gosden has had 75 runners (at 20/1 or less) including Enable, Without Parole and Stradivarius. Sadly though, and for obvious reasons, these are all quite well found in the market. Hugo Palmer is another who is inclined to send runners north as part of their education and development, but without profitable import for punters.

To those actually in the table, where there is a mix of northern track specialists and selective southern raiders. Sir Mark Prescott and William Haggas both clearly send animals up to the north-east that have a fair chance, and it is somewhat surprising to see these practitioners showing a level stakes profit. Moreover, as their strike rates at 31% and 38%, and related Impact Value numbers of 3.02 and 3.53, demonstrate, they’ll keep you in the game more readily than most.

The more local names of Menzies, Tate, Whitaker, Bethell and so on are all worth tagging too, although with only a handful of winners I wouldn’t necessarily generate micro angles to follow until there is a greater body of evidence.

Good luck, thanks for reading, and a happy new year to you all.

 - Jon Shenton

Stat of the Day, 2nd January 2019

Tuesday's Pick was...

2.15 Musselburgh : Chica Buena @ 4/1 BOG 2nd at 5/2 (Tracked leaders, challenged inside 3 out, every chance when short of room approaching next, led last, headed flat, kept on)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

6.15 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Chosen World @ 7/2 BOG

...in a 7-runner, Class 5, Handicap over 7f  worth £3752 to the winner...

Why?

Matt stepping in for Chris for one day only, and I'm taking a chance in what is a very competitive race. The horse in question is Chosen World, a winner of his last two over course and distance, so no worries on that score. He's up four for his most recent win but stays in Class 5 and has a progressive look to his profile (just 11 career starts to date). But what about the stats?

His dad, Intikhab, has a fine record with handicap sprinters. Specifically, in the last two years, he's 16/103 (16 further places) for +36.38 (AE 1.41).

With All Weather sprint handicappers, he's 7/38 (+12.38, AE 1.43) and with Newcastle sprint handicappers he's three from nine, three further places (+17.25, AE 2.03)

Of course, that final stat is heavily influenced by Chosen World's two recent CD victories; so let's add some further ballast to the selection's case:

Trainer Julie Camacho and jockey Conor McGovern are both solid exponents of their craft and, when teaming up here in the past year, they've shared success on four occasions (from 15 starts, +12.25, AE 2.19).

Camacho is adept at racking up sequences with horses, as her last time out strike rate attests. She's won 8 from 38 with LTO winners in the last two years (+10.00, AE 1.14) and she also has a positive expectation with sprinters (40/245 in the last 2 years, +2.75, AE 1.17). In all weather sprints, she's 16/101 (+20.25, AE 1.18). And her Newcastle record in the past year is 8/41 (+13/25, AE 1.21).

To the horse. Chosen World is two from four over the course and two from three over course and distance, Newcastle's straight seven furlongs being something of a specialist piste. And he's unbeaten in two since the deployment of cheek pieces; that kit is unsurprisingly retained here.

Despite the tight look to this race, then, the above conspires to give us...

... a 1pt win bet on Chosen World @ 7/2 BOG as was available from Skybet, Unibet & Hills (4/1 with Betbright if you can get it) at 7.10pm on Tuesday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 6.15 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!