Tag Archive for: Newcastle racecourse

Racing Insights, Good Friday 29/03/24

/in /by

Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the report...

...have yielded four qualifiers for Good Friday...

...for me to consider along with our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 1.40 Chelmsford
  • 1.53 Newcastle
  • 2.40 Lingfield

There's a cracking-looking card  (on paper, anyway) up in the North East and of the three Class 2 contests above, I've decided to look at Sibyl Charm and the 3.00 Newcastle based on field size and race distance. It's a 9-runner, A/W handicap for 4yo+ fillies and mares over a straight 7f on standard tapeta and here's how they'll line up...

Hodd's Girl and Smiling Sunflower look like they might be vulnerable here, but I think the remaining seven all stand a chance of being involved in the shake-up. Top weight Nine Tenths won last time out and has two wins and two runner-up finishes from her last four outings, whilst Cloud Cover has three golds and a silver from five runs and now wears a hood for the first time. Shades of Summer has won her last three, Just Spark is three from four and feature horse Sibyl Charm comes here on a hat-trick and has 3 wins and 4 runner-up places from her last seven. The only runner without a recent win is Aramis Grey, but even she has made the frame in each of her last five efforts.

Nine Tenths is already in good nick, but should benefit from a drop in class today having won a Listed race at Wolverhampton quite cosily three weeks ago, but it might be more of a struggle for Just A Spark and Sibyl Charm who are both up two classes, whilst bottom weight Smiling Sunflower is asked to step up three levels, which could be tough, especially at 5lbs outside the handicap.

Of the nine runners, Just A Spark is the only one yet to win over today's trip, as today will be her first effort. Nine Tenths has already won here at Newcastle, scoring over 6f back in November, whilst Shades of Summer and Sibyl Charm have both won over course and distance, the latter doing so twice from three attempts and her course form is reflected in Instant Expert...

...as is Smiling Sunflower's generally poor A/W record, whilst Aramis Grey looks out of her depth at Class 2 from a win perspective, but she does seem to have the knack of finishing in the frame...

Smiling Sunflower is definitely out of contention for me here from what I've already seen and the takeaways from Instant Expert were Nine Tenths and Shades of Summer, whilst Aramis Grey's 90% place strike rate at this class is impressive after so many runs. She'd be an unlikely winner at this point, but she's firmly in my mind as an E/W possible on the basis of the above data.

Whilst Nine Tenths led the way above, she's just on the cusp of being well drawn as those drawn higher over 7f here at Newcastle have fared better. It's strange to have a pronounced bias over a straight run on an artifiical surface, but surely the stats can't lie...

...and I think the cut-off comes around stall 5 (Nine Tenths is in number 4!)...

...although I suspect that with most straight line sprints that the pace angle will reveal more about a horse's chances and those 150+ races above have really suited horses keen to get on with things. Leaders win more than their fair share of races, but are often susceptible to being picked off late on by the prominent chasers...

...which unfortunately leads me to a bit of a quandary, as over a 4-race period we don't seem to have any genuine front runners...

..but if we stick to the field's two most recent outings (under the logic that if they're all in pretty decent nick they'll run more like their last two than 3 or 4 races ago), a slightly clearer patter emerges...

...where it's not beyond the realms of possibility that Sibyl Charm will end up setting the pace, but will be vulnerable to the likes of Shades of Summer and Nine Tenths and even Cloud Cover.

Also, when there's the distinct possibility of a falsely-run race, the better horses tend to fare best and this again points to Nine Tenths and Shades of Summer, who were the Instant Expert standouts for me.

Summary

No surprises here, but the two I'd take against the field are Nine Tenths and Shades of Summer and as such, it's equally unsurprising that they head the field at 5/2 and 4/1 respectively, but this does open up the prospect of an E/W bet, with the rest of field trading (as of 3pm Thursday) at 7/1 or bigger.

As E/W possibles, I am interested in both Cloud Cover and Aramis Grey and I think I might just have a preference for the latter at 8/1. She doesn't win often enough, but she's really consistent at this level finishing 222123232 in nine Class 2 contests since November 2022.

Happy Easter, everyone! I'm taking a few days off with the family, so I'll be back on Tuesday.

 

Racing Insights, Friday 22/03/24

/in /by

Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the report...

...have yielded just one qualifier for Friday...

...but I can, of course, always fall back upon our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 3.00 Newbury
  • 3.12 Lingfield
  • 3.33 Newbury
  • 7.30 Dundalk

And I think I'll take a look at One More Dream in the 6.45 Newcastle, a 9-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a straight 7f on standard tapeta...

This looks like a pretty open contest with several holding claims. Featured runner One More Dream has two wins and two runner-up finishes from his last four, Lahab has a win and three places from four, Abruzzo Mia and Mumayaz both won last time out, whilst Danielsflyer has won each of his last three. Feel The Need and Streak Lightning are, however, winless in twelve and ten races respectively.

Streak Lightning's hope of breaking that long losing run don't appear to be helped by him stepping up a class here, as are One More Dream, Abruzzo Mia and bottom-weight Rory, whilst Mumayaz is up two grades today. All bar Feel The Need have had a run in the last three weeks, but he now returns from almost six months off, during which time he has switched yards and now makes a debut for Michael Herrington.

All nine runners have already won over this trip with only Lahab, Feel The Need, Mumayaz and Rory yet to score over course and distance. The latter pair, Mumayaz (over 6f) and Rory (over 5f & 6f) have, however, already won on this track and Instant Expert will document the field's form over the last two year's under similar conditions...

Fast0finisher Starshiba has been decent across the board, if unspectacular, whilst One More Dream has a great record at track/trip. Abruzzo Mia's numbers are creditable and Danielsflyer is probably the standout here. Streak Lightning has found it hard to win on going/class and distance and the going certainly hasn't favoured Mumayaz or Rory with the latter also struggling to win over 7f, although they have managed to make the frame in several of their defeats, according to the place data for those very races...

...which suggests that all of these have done well enough to make the frame quite often, whilst Feel The Need runs on the A/W for the first time. His introduction to this sphere of racing will come from a fairly high (7 of 9) draw, but our draw analyser suggests that this might be helpful from both a win and place perspective...

Personally, I remain unconvinced about draw bias on straight tracks, but that above is what the data tells us. I'm more inclined to take notice of any perceived pace bias than the draw stats if truth be told and for those 150+ races above, our Pace Analyser says...

...that leaders win more than their fair share of races here, but that those just following closely behind do have a tendency to pick them off and 'steal' the win. Any further back into mid-field can be a difficult place to win from, as those runners have only won 43.8% of the races despite having 54.9% of the runners and if we look at the field's last few outings...

This could be good news for Lahab, Abruzzo Mia, Starshiba and One More Dream and if we look at the pace/draw heat map...

...Abruzzo Mia would be the one to take from that piece of data.

Summary

An open-looking contest and when I wrote the piece just ater 3pm on Thursday I had no odds to work with, but I was more interested in (alphabetically) Abruzzo Mia (Form/Instant Expert/Pace & Draw), Danielsflyer (on form/IE), Lahab (form/pace), One More Dream (Form/H4C/IE) and Starshiba (IE/pace).

I've only ruled four out at this stage, but will return later with a decision, once I've seen the market and decided which (if any) represent enough value for me to want to suggest putting money down

OK, it's now 6.30pm and here's the market...

..and based on the above, I think I'm just going to play a small E/W bet on Starshiba. If pushed for a winner, my tentative selection would be Abruzzo Mia ahead of One More Dream.

Racing Insights, Friday 08/03/2024

/in /by

Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the report...

...have yielded just one UK qualifier plus one in Ireland...

...but I can always fall back upon our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 7.15 Dundalk
  • 7.45 Dundalk
  • 8.15 Dundalk
  • 8.30 Newcastle

...which doesn't actually give me a great deal of choice, seeing as I don't really 'do' Irish racing. That said, Enola Grey's race above is the joint third-highest rated race in the UK and the day's second most valuable, so let's have a closer look at the 7.30 Newcastle, a 12-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a straight mile on standard tapeta...

Sole LTO winner and bottom weight Danielsflyer comes here on a hat-trick after scoring over course and distance a week ago. Hartswood, Lahab, Hortzadar, Gainsbourg, Trais Fluors, Enola Grey and Star Shield have all won once in their last seven outings, whilst Paris Lights has lost seven in a row and Torchlight, King Sharja and L'Argent have yet to win after four, three and four attempts respectively; L'Argent was also 0 from 4 in France.

The card also indicates that Hartswood, featured horse Enola Grey and Star Shield are fast finishers, but the latter pair of that trio are both up one class here, as are King Sharja and L'Argent, whilst bottom-weight hat-trick seeker Danielsflyer is up two levels, making life tougher.

Better news for Torchlight, who drops two classes for her second handicap outing; Lahab also makes a secind handicap appearance, whilst it's handicap debut day for King Sharja, who runs for Ruth Carr for the very first time after leaving Richard Hannon's yard.

Not only is this his handicap and yard debut, it's also his first run in almost ten months, during which time he was gelded, so he might well need the run. Lahab and Hartswood are coming off short breaks of 52 and 61 days respectively and the rest of the field have all had at least one outing in the last month.

Half of the field (Hartswood, Hortzadar, Trais Fluors, Enola Grey, Star Shield and Danielsflyer) are course and distance winners, whilst Gainsbourg has also won over today's trip, as per Instant Expert...

...but the overall picture isn't great for many of these. Kng Sharja makes an A/W debut and Star Shield's record on the A/W especially at track/trip is particularly poor. Thnakfully the place stats from those races above give me more to work with...

...from which, I'm going to eliminate Hartswood, Hortzadar, King Sharja, Gainsbourg and Star Shield from my enquiries leaving me with runners in stalls 1, 3, 5, 7, 8, 10 and 12 over a course and distance that has tended to suit the higher-drawn (7+) runners most...

...which is another tick for Lahab, Enola Grey, Paris Lights and Torchlight, who will run from widest of all. Mind you, there are no bends to contend with, so she just needs to aim straight! Those 150+ races above don't seem to have much of a pace bias and horses have been able to win with any running style...

Leaders have fared worst of all, but the difference in strike rates isn't huge and I wouldn't rule Lahab out of the running, simply because his recent runs have shown that he likes to set the pace...

Summary

A bit of a strange one today, as very few of these are in good form and the form horse is up two classes. We didn't get anything from the win stats on Instant Expert, but the place stats led me to eliminate Hartswood, Hortzadar, King Sharja, Gainsbourg and Star Shield. We then discovered that those drawn highest seemed to have an advantage which was better news for Lahab, Enola Grey, Paris Lights and Torchlight and the lack of any distinct pace bias leaves all four in my thoughts.

Of the four, it's easy/sensible to discard Star Shield on current form, leaving me with my three vs the field, but I think that without any clear guidance from the toolkit (and this does happen, we're not perfect!), the smart move is to call no bet and walk away, move to your next race and that's what I'll do here. I think that my final three will all go well here, but I really can't call it in what look a super-competitive event, as exemplified by the 6pm market, where the top seven in the odds are separated by just 1.5pts...

Good luck whichever way you play this one, but I'll keep my money in my pocket.

Please Note : No column tomorrow (Friday) for Saturday's racing, as I'm travelling down to Exeter so sort some University stuff out for my daughter, so I'll be back Sunday evening with a race preview for Monday. I hope you all have a great weekend.

Racing insights, Thursday 07/03/2024

/in /by

Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 2.25 Wincanton
  • 3.45 Carlisle
  • 4.55 Carlisle
  • 7.oo Newcastle

...and whilst probably not the best race of the four, the one with most Instant Expert data to work with appears to be the 7.00 Newcastle, which is an 8-runner (hopefully good for E/W bettors), Class 6, 3yo A/W handicap over a straight 7f on standard tapeta...

My immediate thoughts were that this might end up being a two-horse race between our only LTO winner, the filly Sunblock and the consistent (placed in each of his last five) track specialist Likeashadow, who is our sole course and distance winner.

Redondo was a winner two starts ago and East Bank won on debut six races ago, but the field is pretty shy on 'recent' wins otherwise, as is often the case at Class 6. The top three in the weights, Mariamne, East Bank and Likeashadow all drop a class here with the latter now sporting blinkers for the first time. Bottom weight Ocean Bliss makes a debut in a visor and it's just a second handicap start for both Sunblock and Noble Consort.

Both Ocean Bliss and Sunblock were in action last weekend and most of the rivals have also raced in the last 14-44 days, but it's not inconceivable that (the so-far not so) Amazing Winnie might need the run after almost six months off. We know that Likeashadow loves it here (as Instant Expert will show below) and that he's the only course and distance winner in the line-up. Of his rivals, Sunblock's win over 7f at Wolverhampton last weekend is the only other distance win, whilst only one other has won here at Newcastle, as Redondo scored over a mile two starts ago and only failed by a head to 'double up' next/last time out.

We don't get a great detail from the win stats on Instant Expert, but the place stats should be more helpful...

On the win stats, I probably hold more sway with Likeashadow's full line of amber off more runs, than Redondo's line of green that weighs heavily on one win, but both also do very well on the place side of thing with Likeashadow the standout for me again, based on his sheer consistency over a dozen A/W runs, especially in his ten here at Newcastle where his form reads 8113422333 including 81423 over course and distance.

So, as things stand, we've Sunblock on form, Likeashadow on consistency and Likeashadow/Redondo on Instant Expert catching the eye. Now let's see what the draw/pace data might tell us.

The Draw Analyser says...

...showing a somewhat surprising bias for a straight seven furlongs, but the data is what the data is and could be good news for Sunblock & Redondo in stalls 6 & 7; Ocean Bliss is drawn widest of all, whilst the Pace Analyser says that those 130+races above have suited runners keen to get on with things, but that those setting the pace have often had a target on their backs...

...so an average pace score closer to 3.00 rather than 4.00 might be the answer and this is reflected in the dominance of the high-drawn prominent runner on the pace/draw heatmap below...

Sadly we're not going to get the perfect pace/draw setup from this field and I think we might have a falsely run race with only one runner showing much aptitude for early pace...

...although Redondo did lead for 6.5f of a one mile race in Navan three starts ago and a similar run here puts him right in the mix. Amazing Winnie isn't exactly a confirmed front runner anyway and on A/W debut after nearly six months off, I'm not sure she'd hold on to even a place anyway.

Summary

Prior to looking at pace/draw, my favoured trio were Sunblock, Likeashadow and Redondo and the latter pair of those three have got really good draws. We then look at pace and I can see this being a falsely run race, which often plays into the hands of those who are normally held up for a run, as they'll have less ground to make up on the leaders this time and all three of my trio have been held up three or more times in their last four outings.

I've seen nothing to change my mind so I'm sticking with Sunblock, Likeashadow and Redondo as my three from the field. I suspect it'll be tight between the first two with Redondo settling for the places and I'd expect Likeashadow to be more of a value option than Sunblock.

I'm out later this afternoon/evening at a function, so I'm early to press and as of 2.15pm, there were no odds available, but I'm happy with my selections and I'm hoping there's some E/W viability about them, especially Likeashadow.

 

Racing Insights, Thursday 22/02/24

/in /by

Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 3.23 Thurles
  • 3.35 Huntingdon
  • 4.05 Huntingdon
  • 4.53 Thurles

As most of you already know, I'm not a big fan of Irish racing (each to their own and all that) and with the lack of 'free' UK card available to me at the time of posting (the free list will repopulate later, don't worry), I've got carte blanche to pick any race to cover and the day's highest rated race in the UK is the 6.00 Newcastle, where I suspect Cover Up might be a warm favourite to land this 8-runner (poss E/W bets?), Class 3, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a straight 5f on standard tapeta...

Cover Up won last time out and is three from his last five and comes here on a hat-trick, whilst Moon Flight also won last time out and has two wins and two runner-up finishes from his last four. Clearpoint made the frame on his last outing and is three from five and only top-weight Exalted Angel is without a win in seven or more, having lost 25 on the bounce in just over three years.

Exalted Angel is the only one of the eight not moving in class today as Intervention, Clearpoint (on yard debut for Simon Hodgson) and Lord Riddiford (licence rather than trainer change for this one) all drop down from Class 2, whilst hat-trick seeking Cover Up, Jump The Gun and fast-finishing pair Moon Flight & Pockley all step up from Class 4.

All eight have raced in the last 5 (Intervention) to 33 (Clearpoint/Lord Riddiford) days, so no layoffs to over come and Clearpoint, Cover Up (LTO), Moon Flight (also LTO) and Pockley have all won over this course and distance. Jump the Gun has won here over 6f (last November) and both Exalted Angel and Lord Riddiford have 5f Tapeta wins under their belts (Southwell and Wolverhampton respectively), but Intervention has won at neither track nor trip; he does however have 7 wins on tapeta over 6f/7f from 26 attempts at a very healthy 26.92% strike rate...

Clearpoint and Cover Up are the Instant Expert eyecatchers with lines of green, even if they are both 5lbs higher than their last A/W winning marks. Exalted Angel and Lord Riddiford have gone a long time since they last won an A/W contest, hence the latter's 10lb drop in ratings from his last win and whilst Pockley has won four times on this track, he prefers it slower than standard. If we then look at the place form from those races above...

...we could add the names of Intervention and Moon Flight to our list Instant Expert possibles alongside Cover Up and Clearpoint, giving us runners in stalls 1,2, 6 and 7 and somewhat surprisingly for a straight 5f sprint, there is a bit of a draw bias, favouring Intervention and Clearpoint here...

Now the draw stats from those 100+ races might have surprised a few of you, but I'm pretty sure the pace data from those races won't raise many eyebrows...

...which is pretty much as you'd expect, especially from a win perspective, which shows more bias than the place stats do, as leaders win 1.76 times more often than hold-up horses, but actually only place 1.3 times more. And if the isolated stats for the draw and the pace above are combined, the resulting heat map will probably not surprise you either...

...with the red box being the preferred combinations. We know how the field will line up ie

...so if we can place them onto the heat map, we can hopefully make a reasoned assumption to the outcome. Thankfully we also log how each horse has approached past races and their recent efforts look like this...

...with long-time loser Exalted Angel and three of my four from Instant Expert looking like the ones who'll be setting the pace and in terms of that pace/draw heat map...

Summary

Cover Up and Moon Flight both won last time out, but Clearpoint is also in good nick and he scored well on Instant Expert, as did hat-trick seeking Cover Up, of course, whilst Moon Flight and Intervention had good place stats. Of these four, Intervention and Clearpoint seemed to be more favoured by the draw, whilst the pace data was also against Moon Flight.

The pace/draw heat backed that up leaving me with three to choose from (in draw order) Cover Up, Intervention and Clearpoint. It would be easy/lazy to just suggest Cover Up wins again here, based on form, but let's not forget that he's up in class and also up 5lbs for just a half length win.

He probably should win here, but the 5.40pm odds ranging from Evens to 13/8 don't really excite me, but I am interested in the other pair. Clearpoint and Intervention can be backed at 7/1 and 9/1 respectively and whilst they might not beat the fav, I think they're both decent E/W alternatives and you never know... 😉

 

Racing Insights, Tuesday 20/02/24

/in /by

The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information] and here is Tuesday's Shortlist...

...and whilst none are perfect, the 6.30 Newcastle has three representatives above and might be interesting. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...

  • 3.40 Taunton
  • 5.30 Newcastle
  • 7.30 Newcastle

I do normally try to marry up the daily feature with the daily 'free' races and I could do that with Wild Max running in the 3.40 Taunton, which is a decent enough Class 3 contest, but I've got more data available for the 6.30 Newcastle, which is not only another Class 3 handicap, but also features Azure Angel, Solray and The Caltonian from The Shortlist. The race itself in a very competitive-looking, 8-runner, 4yo+ handicap sprint over a straight 6f on standard tapeta...

...with no less than three LTO winners in the shape of Azure Angel and Solray from TS along with Secret Guest.

FORM : Azure Angel is three from four, Secret Guest two from six, The Caltonian three from five and Solway is two from three. Zaman Jemil won seven races ago and Mighty Power won two starts back and was placed on his last run. Top-weight Lethal Nymph and Mondammej are winless in eight and thirty-two races respectively!

CLASS : Only The Caltonian ran at Class 3 last time around with Azure Angel, Secret Guest, Solray and Mighty Power all up from Class 4, whilst Lethal Nymph, Zeman Jemil and Mondammej all drop down from Class 2.

LAST RUN : Solray had had a ten-week rest, but that is eclipsed by the 137-day and 226-day absences of the top two in the market, Lethal Nymph and sole filly Azure Angel, with the other five rivals all having raced in the last 10-20 days

MISCELLANEOUS : This will be yard debut day for both Lethal Nymph and Zeman Jemil, whilst both Mondammej and Solray are denoted as fast finishers.

COURSE/DISTANCE : All bar Lethal Nymph and Azure Angel are former course and distance winners, but the former has won over this trip four times (Ascot x 2, Doncaster & Wolverhampton) whilst the latter has won here over 7f and over this trip at both Chelmsford and Kempton.

INSTANT EXPERT shows all recent relevant form...

I've included Class 4 form with the field being 0 from 8 at Class 3 and Mondammej's overall lack of wins stands out like a sore thumb here. Mighty Power's best for has been at Class 5, so this looks a big ask. Zaman Jemil's numbers are a little skewed by his C&D win here in August 2022 and he's only won one of ten since and if I lean on the place data...

...I'm probably mainly interested in Azure Angel, Secret Guest, The Caltonian and Solray as the half of the field I'd want to be with, so lets see if the pace and firstly the draw stats persuade me otherwise.

The 'chosen' quartet will emerge from stalls 1, 6, 7 and 8, so I'm hoping for little/no draw bias (I'm not really expecting one) or data suggesting higher drawn runners fare best and whilst i'm pleased to see the actual numbers, they are a bit of a surprise for me...

...but good news for Azure Angel, The Caltonian and Secret Guest, but let's not forget that this is a straight six, where pace generally wins the race...

...which based on recent efforts gives Azure Angel the advantage from my quartet, but also reignites the possibility of a decent run from Lethal Nymph...

...although the pace/draw combination would suggest the highest drawn could still prevail...

Summary

The quartet of Azure Angel, Secret Guest, The Caltonian and Solray are definitely the ones I'd want to pick from and it causes a bit of a quandary. There's every chance that Solray deserves to be the 6.30pm favourite at odds of 2/1 to 5/2 especially after his course and distance success ten weeks ago, but he's up in class and up 7lbs and the pace/draw data is against him. He could quite easily win this, but the price represents little/no value to me.

The pace/draw data does favour the filly Azure Angel, though and 3/1 does suit me better than 2/1, of course. The issue here is, of course, the lengthy break but she's 3 from 3 on the A/W and Aidan Keeley's 3lb claim effectively keeps her on the same mark as her LTO win at Chelmsford where she won despite being shoved into the running rail. She was game that day and might have more to come, much will depend on how race ready she is.

Secret Guest and The Caltonian will hopefully get towed into the race by Zeman Jemil and Azure Angel and they look like being fairly well matched in the hunt for third place.

Overall a tight looking contest and I expect there'll be little between Solray and Azure Angel and it might well boil down to whether it's pace/draw stats or a layoff that gets overcome. Little in it, but I've a (very) marginal preference for the filly Azure Angel.

 

Racing Insights, Wednesday 17/01/24

/in /by

Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature is the Trainer Statistics (TS) report which is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 12.50 Newbury
  • 2.10 Southwell
  • 3.05 Newbury
  • 3.20 Southwell

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have generated some runners from in-form yards to consider...

14-day form...

30-day form...

Sadly, the weather is playing havoc with racing again, so I'm going ignore all those races above and focus upon the All-Weather action. Sadly that's just a mix of Class 5/6 racing, but the most valuable of them is the 3.30 Newcastle, an 8-runner, Class 6, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a  straight mile on standard tapeta...

No LTO winners on display, which isn't unusual at Class 6, but Cheese The One was a one-length runner-up here over 7f on her last run just under a fortnight ago. Most of the field are winless in at least seven races, but Intoxicata won seven races ago and has placed in five of her six defeats since then, so she's still going relatively well.
The other 'recent' winner is Child Of Lir, who won five races ago, but at 75 days off is the longest rested of this group. Possible Ambition returns from a break of almost six weeks, but the remainder have all raced in the last fortnight with the bottom three on the card all featuring in the same 7f contest here 13 days ago...

All eight raced at Class 6 last time out and we've no new headgear/equipment or changes of yards to report. Intoxicata, Indrapura Star and Heartlander have yet to win at either track or trip, but Cheese The One won here over 6f back in September 2022, whilst Possible Ambition, Reclaim Victory, Child of Lir and Pop Favorite have all scored over course and distance, as shown in a pretty sorry looking Instant Expert...

...where Child of Lir's sole career win (Class 5, course and distance here last September) provides the only bit of green. Intoxicata has a few Class 6 A/W wins on standard going and is largely untested at track/trip and Pop Favorite has a reasonable record, but I'm hoping to glean a little more from the place stats...

Those who follow this column will know that any red on the place stats for going/class/course/distance are a no-no for me when nit comes to looking for a winner, but I'm happy to ignore Intoxicata's sole track effort and Child of Lir's two Class 6 defeats in the knowledge that he did win over this course and distance at Class 5, but I'll be discounting Possible Ambition, Cheese The One, Indrapura Star and Heartlander from my win considerations. I know the last pair haven't had many chances, but they were both well behind Cheese The One last time out and if I can't back CTO, I can't back the other two!

This leaves me with runners in stalls 1, 2, 4 and 6 over a course and distance that shows little draw bias, which is what I'd expect over a straight mile on an artificial surface...

The Pace Analysis from those races does however give us something to work with, as those racing prominently or setting the pace have done a little better than those positioned further back in the pack...

Sadly, we don't seem to have a front-runner in our field, but Intoxicata, Child of Lir and Cheese The One all raced prominently last time out...

...so it's quite possible they'll set the tempo here.

Summary

Off what limited evidence we have above, the one I like best is Intoxicata in a pretty open-looking contest. She's consistent (2 wins and 6 places from her last 10), she survived the Instant Expert cut and is expected to be up with the pace. I wrote this piece earlier than usual on Tuesday, so I've no prices to work from, but I'd take her at hopefully 10/3 or bigger here.

Cheese The One ran well here last time out and should relish the extra furlong and be involved again, but she's going to be far too short for an E/W play and I could make a case for most of the others to make the frame, but that defeats the object of the column, I suppose.

Racing Insights, Thursday 28/12/23

/in /by

Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 12.40 Leopardstown
  • 1.05 Catterick
  • 1.50 Leopardstown
  • 3.15 Limerick

Now, I don't really go for Irish races and the Catterick race above is a maiden hurdle, again something I'm not keen on, so I'm going to go a little off-piste and head North-East for the 5.30 Newcastle, a 10-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ A/W handicap over a straight 7f on standard tapeta...

The Turpinator and Jahidin both won last time out and have both won two of their last five outings, as has Sir Maxi. Al Farabi has a win and two places from his three career starts and now makes a handicap debut off a mark of 82. Gobi Sunset won three races ago and One More Dream scored four back, but Scottish Summit, Illusionist, Swiss Ace and Alexander James are all winless in six although Illusionist has made the frame in three of those six, including over course and distance here last time out off today's mark.

Sir Maxi is noted as a fast finisher, but he's up a class here today, as are Al Farabi and Jahidin, but top weight and veteran Scottish Summit drops down two levels, but is a pound worse off than his recent three length C&D defeat nineteen days ago. That's about how long most of these have rested since their last run with all bar Al Farabi having raced in the last 12-20 days. Mind you, at 34 days off, Al Farabi shouldn't be rusty!

Illusionist is the only one of this bunch yet to win at either track or trip, Al Farabi hasn't won (or even raced!) here at Newcastle and Alexander James has yet to win over 7f. Of the other seven with wins at both 7f and at Newcastle, only Scottish Summit and One More Dream are without a course and distance, as their wins here were over a mile and 6f respectively. Feature of the day Instant Expert is where we'll see all the relevant stats from previous races...

...where Jahidin is the eye-catcher with the sole line of green. The Turpinator and Sir Maxi also have some good numbers to their credit. Gobi Sunset's record at going, class and distance would make him a highly unlikely winner here and although Illusionist's stats aren't good at all, he is a regular placer. I don't see him as a winner here, but his recent efforts on this track keep him in contention for the minor honours.

He's actually drawn in stall 2 with only Scottish Summit keeping him away from the rail and unusually for a straight run on an artificial surface, we do have a bit of a draw bias and it doesn't help Scottish Summit or Illusionist...

Those races above, as with many straight 7f contests, have often been won by horses showing early speed...

...with prominent runners and leaders winning 52.9% of the races from just 44.8% of the runners. This, based on this field's most recent efforts point to good starts for Al Farabi, Jahidin, Gobi Sunset and The Turpinator...

Summary

Pace often wins the race over a straight 7f and Al Farabi, Jahidin, Gobi Sunset and The Turpinator look like the ones who'll be setting the early tempo. I'm happy to rule Gobi Sunset out of the equation based on form and Instant Expert, where he has been shown to struggle in similar races.

This leaves me with a three-horse shortlist of Al Farabi, Jahidin and The Turpinator and all three could win this. Jahidin was the immediate eye-catcher from Instant Expert, but he's up 2lbs and one class after only winning by a nose last time out.

The Turpinator is only up 3lbs for a three-quarter length success at class, course and distance recently and he was staying on well at the end, so I think he has a marginally better chance than Jahidin.

Al Farabi carries 5lbs more than Jahidin and he was a beaten odds-on favourite last time out a full length behind Guy Fawkes who has since been beaten by over three lengths at odds as short as 1/5. Al Farabi is hardly thrown in at the weights here and although I expect it to be tight between this trio, I think The Turpinator might be the most likely winner.

The early (3.45pm) market was formed by bet365 and they go...

...and with only the bottom four priced beyond 8/1, I'll not be having an E/W play here.

Racing Insights, Friday 17/11/23

/in /by

Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the report...

...have yielded the following qualifiers for Friday...

...plus I can, of course, always fall back upon our daily list of 'free' races if needed...

  • 12.50 Wexford
  • 3.05 Newcastle
  • 3.30 Cheltenham
  • 4.50 Newcastle
  • 5.00 Wolverhampton
  • 7.45 Dundalk

...but I think I'll stick with my H4C report qualifiers and have a look at Pockley and the 3.40 Newcastle, an 11-runner, 3yo+ A/W sprint handicap over a straight 5f on standard tapeta...

Strong Johnson, Dickieburd and featured runner Pockely all come here off the back of a recent (7-10 days) win, whilst Bergerac, Treacherous and Ramon Di Loria were all placed on their last outings.

Bergerac, Venturous, Treacherous and Ramon di Loria are all winless in at least seven races (9, 19, 10 and 13 respectively) to be precise and the latter surely won't be helped by stepping up a class. Bergerac does, at least, drop down a class, as do Brooklyn Nine Nine and Be Proud.

Eight of the field have raced in the last fortnight or so and even Be Proud, Princess Karine (sole filly in the race), Venturous and Brooklyn Nine Nine shouldn't be rusty after short breaks of 20, 48, 59 and 68 days either.

Bergerac is the only runner yet to win at either track or trip with only Brooklyn Nine Nine and Treacherous of his rivals still seeking a first win at 5f. They have both, however, already won here at Newcastle over 6f, as has Dickieburd. Strong Johnson, Venturous (won this race in 2020), Be Proud, Ramon di Loria and featured runner Pockley have all scored over course and distance.

Instant Expert suggests that bottom weight Ramon di Loria might well be the least best suited to the conditions here...

...and his won record at going/course/trip are a concern, as are Treacherous' numbers on standard going and Be Proud's return at Class 4 in terms of wins. From the above, featured horse Pockley (as expected) and top weight Strong Johnson probably make most appeal on those numbers, but let's see if the place stats suggest any have been unlucky...

Well, from a place perspective, bottom weight Ramon di Loria certainly looks a different proposition and in draw order, these are the ones that make most appeal from the place data...

...and our draw analyser says that the first three of those seven might find it hardest to win here based on previous races...

That said, I'm always a little wary of leaning too heavily on past draw data for straight sprint, where there really shouldn't be much in it and it really should be fastest runner wins and this is backed up to some extent by the pace analysis of those 90-odd races above...

If we then look at how this field have approached their most recent outings...

...we see that there aren't many happy to set the pace, but that Strong Johnson and Princess Karine look like being able to overcome a seemingly adverse low draw by getting away sharply.

Summary

I think I want to be focusing on the seven runners highlighted by the place data on Instant Expert and I'm going to stick my neck out and say I'm more interested in pace than I am in the draw here and I'm going to put Strong Johnson and Princess Karine forward as my main fancies for this one. They're both in good form, but Strong Johnson looks in better nick and beat Princess Karine on her last run. Only Bet365 have priced this up as of 3.00pm and they go 6/1 and 7/1 respectively and I'd take them to finish in that order. I might split stakes.

 

Racing Insights, Friday 20/10/23

/in /by

Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the report...

...have sadly yielded just one qualifier...

...but I can always fall back upon our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 1.55 Haydock
  • 2.25 Haydock
  • 4.35 Uttoxeter
  • 5.38 Redcar
  • 6.15 Dundalk
  • 7.45 Dundalk

Storm Babet continues to cause major disruption to meetings across Britain, so Fakenham and Uttoxeter's Friday cards must pass 7.30am inspections before being allowed to go ahead with Haydock already postponed. With this in mind, the A/W might be a safer place to focus on and we might as well have a look at Spirit of Ash from the H4C report above. She's one of three females in the 5.00 Newcastle, a 10-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 2m½f on standard tapeta...

Our featured runner Spirit of Ash was a winner here over 1m4½f just a week ago, making her the only LTO winner in this field, but most of her opponents have at least one win in their recent form, although Yasmin from York have lost her last seven and both Spritzin and Easter Island are maidens after eight and five races respectively.

Sophar Sogood is down three classes here after being well beaten at Class 2, but he's still a class higher than when winning two starts ago, whilst top weight Red Force One is down one level. Spirit of Ash goes the other way, moving up one class from her Class 6 win here a week ago, whilst out of form bottom weight Yasmin from York is also up one class, which I can't see being helpful!

Haaland, Spritzin and Artisan Dancer receive an 8lbs weight for age allowance here and the first named of that trio now wears cheekpieces for the first time after finishing third last time out. That was 29 days ago and whilst that's not exactly a distant memory, only Kiss My Face has been out of action longer and he might well need the run after 24 weeks off.

Despite being three from five here at Newcastle, Spirit of Ash hasn't won over course and distance (she hasn't gone beyond 1m5f), but both Bobby Shaftoe and the returning Kiss My Face have scored over track and trip, whilst Red Force One, Sophar Sogood, Artisan Dancer and Yasmin from York have won elsewhere over similar distances to this one.

One last note about Kiss My Face is that he's trained by Brian Ellison and will be ridden by Ben Robinson and this trainer/jockey combo have won this race for the last two years and Instant Expert suggests this runner should enjoy the prevalent conditions here...

Bobby Shaftoe also has a decent set of figures to back up his claims, but aside from Sophar Sogood, the field look pretty shy of Class 5 A/W wins and this is repeated in the place stats...

...where Yasmin of York would normally be of interest were she not in such poor form right now. Kiss My Face is the eyecatcher again here, but I'm just concerned he might need the run.

The draw stats for similar past races...

...are a little skewed by a poor set of results from horses drawn in stall 1...

...but that looks to be an anomaly and I'm fairly sure that the draw won't make or break the chances of a horse that has to run over 3500 yards after the gates open, so I wouldn't necessarily be ruling Bobby Shaftoe out right now, but I'd want him to race as prominently as he could from that lowest draw, if these pace stats are anything to go by...

That, sadly isn't normally the case ands he's generally held up or races in mid-field, as shown by his last four efforts below...

That said, there's very little pace in the race here and I suspect we'll have a falsely run race. Draw and pace will probably end up having very little effect on the outcome and if they go at a dawdle, which they might, then that's tailor made for the more natural hold-up types.

Summary

If we're not placing as much emphasis on draw/pace as we normally do, then it's going to be down to form, suitability, quality and the unquantifiable 'gut feeling' and with that in mind, I think I want to play at the bottom end of the pace chart. A lack of early pace would tend to set it up for a 'finisher'.

Spirit of Ash is the course specialist from the H4C report and I fancy her to go well, but she's never been beyond 1m5f, so may have to settle for a place/top 4 finish with Artisan Dancer the one I like most. He has finished 1116 in his last four and would have been much closer last time out, had he not been blocked off on the rail late on when flying home. He gets the trip, is in good nick, loves the A/W and is 3 from 6 under today's jockey.  He's the current 9/4 fav ahead of Spirit of Ash at 7/2, but neither price is particularly attractive/generous.

Elsewhere, at a bigger price, Bobby Shaftoe looks a reasonable E/W pick at 8/1, whilst Kiss My Face could well outrun his 12/1 ticket if fully tuned up after his lay-off, but you'd be taking his fitness on trust. Mind you, Skybet are paying 4 places, so who knows?

Racing Insights, Tuesday 17/10/23

/in /by

The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

Here are my qualifiers on Tuesday's Shortlist...

...and as ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...

  • 2.50 Leicester
  • 3.05 Gowran Park
  • 3.35 Hereford
  • 5.35 Huntingdon

...and of the nine races above, the one featuring Valsad is the highest-rated, so we're heading for the 4.55 Newcastle, a 12-runner, Class 2, 3yo+, A/W handicap over a left-handed 1m4½f  on standard tapeta...

Before analysing the race in the way I normally do, I need to mention that the top weight Military March muddies the waters somewhat here. He hasn't raced anywhere in the last 999 days since only finishing eighth of 11 to Lord Glitters in Singspiel Stakes at Meydan, despite being sent off as the 11/8 fav and it's 1228 days since his last UK run which saw him finish fourth in 2020's 2000 Guineas on just his third outing. His second outing was four years and almost a week ago and that was a Group 3 victory.

I'm mentioning all this, because it's quite possible that he won't come out of my analysis too well, but Godolphin don't keep horses in training for no reason, do they? And there's no doubting his past ability, so I'll need to keep this in mind.

What we do know is that both Capital Theory and bottom weight (carrying two stone less than Military March!) Wynter Wildes won last time out and that Haunted Dream, Stowell and Onesmoothoperator are all without a win in their racecard-visible formline, having lost their last 6, 9 and 17 races respectively.

Military March and Blanchard are on handicap debuts here and are both down in class, as their last UK run were at Group 1 and Listed class respectively, but the bottom four on the card are all up in class; Southern Voyage, Capital Theory & Sir Chauvelin are up from Class 3, whilst Wynter Wildes won a Class 4 handicap at Yarmouth last time out. All bar Capital Thory of the four class risers have already won here over course and distance, whilst Blanchland and Onesmoothoperator have both won here, over a mile and 1m2f respectively, but neither have won over a similar trip to this one, nor have Military March, Wooton'Sun or Capital Theory.

Military March has been gelded during his long absence, Wynter Wildes is the sole female in the race, Sir Chauvelin is the oldest at 11 yrs of age and our sole 3 yr old, Blanchard, gets a useful 6lbs weight for age allowance and Instant Expert's overview of past runs under similar conditions looks like this...

Valsad made The Shortlist, of course, but we now see that it was based on just one run/win on the A/W at Southwell a month ago. Haunted Dream, Capital Theory and Sir Chauvelin have multiple A/W wins and the latter definitely likes this trip, whereas Onesmoothoperator's win record looks dreadful, despite the following graphic suggesting that he's usually a very good E/W bet...

...having made the frame in 12 of his 16 A/W starts including seven of eight here at Newcastle and he's possibly the pick on place form alone. He'll run from stall 4, whilst Godolphin's returner, Military March, has got box number 1 but past similar races here at Newcastle appear to have favoured those drawn highest...

...which could be good news for the likes of Southern Voyage, Wynter Wildes, Valsad and Haunted Dream. Those 40-odd races above really haven't been kind to horses that lead with the staling prominent horses picking them off late on..

When we look at how these runners have approached their last few races, we can attempt to predict how they'll tackle this one. Military March, of course, will be tricky to assess on A/W debut after a long absence, but here's how they have raced of late...

We've no out and out front runner here, but Capital Theory won from the front LTO, so might be tempted to take it on here, whilst Military March won the Group 3 Dubai Autumn Stakes from the front four years ago; Wootton'Sun, Omniscient and Blanchland have all also set the pace in one of their last four runs.

Summary

On past achievements, Military March should be absolutely thrown in on handicap debut off a mark of 107. I know it's more gut feeling than fact, but Godolphin don't bring horses back after three years off if they're no good and this makes him the one to beat here, but I'm not backing him at 11/4 or 3/1 taking fitness on trust, so I'll look elsewhere for a bet.

Wynter Wildes won nicely last time out and although up in class, she's carrying two stones less than the above-mentioned fav and at 14/1 could be a nice E/W bet, especially with most firms paying four places. I also like Haunted Dream and Valsad as potential placers, but 13/2 isn't quite long enough for me.

One that could be a bet at 8/1 or bigger is LTO winner Capital Theory, but the main interest in this race has to be how former star Military March fares on comeback, I wish him well.

 

Racing Insights, Thursday 31/08/23

/in /by

Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 2.35 Navan
  • 3.35 Navan
  • 5.06 Bath
  • 5.30 Stratford
  • 7.45 Newcastle

...and of the three UK races, the one with the most Instant Expert data to work with is also the highest rated of the trio. It's race 26 of the Racing League, aka the 7.45 Newcastle, a 13-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 1m2f on standard tapeta...

New Dayrell won last time out to open his account at the seventh attempt, whilst Painters Palette also won, taking his 2023 record to 3 wins from 7. Storm Catcher has also won 3 of his last 7, as has Bashful, whilst Blue Yonder has won twice. Onesmoothoperator, Carolus Magnus, Wind Your Neck In and Cap Francais have lost their last 15, 10, 8 & 9 races repsectively.

Only Onesmoothoperator, Carolus Magnus and Roaring Gallagher ran at this Class 3 level last time out and the laatter now runs in a handicap for just the second time. Of the ten class movers, only Storm Catcher drops down from Class 2 with the other nine all up a level.

Onesmoothoperator is clearly on the cold list, but like Bashful, he at least won over this course and distance with only Miami Thunder of the others to have won on this track (over a mile two starts ago), but Storm Catcher, New Dayrell and Blue Yonder have won over this trip elsewhere.

The latter of those 1m2f winners, Blue Yonder has been off track the longest, but he really shouldn't have got rusty after just 54 days' rest with his rivals all having raced in the last five weeks.

Instant Expert has all the above course/distance wins logged and instantly highlights the poor record of top-weight Onesmoothoperator...

It's not the most inspiring set of numbers to base a bet (or not) on, but there's some green titbits to work with and some areas of concern like the records of Wind Your Neck In & Cap Francais at this trip, but I've a feeling that we'd be better off focusing on All-Weather place data...

...which somewhat remarkably shows Onesmoothoperator in a whole new light and on the A/W over trips of 1m2f to 1m4.5f, his ten runs have finished 1329222122. The 9th place was the only non-tapeta run and his Newcastle placings from that series are 1322, which is interesting to say the least. A few others are of interest and a this point, the ones I think I'd want to be working with are...

...who are drawn in stalls 2, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 & 10, so I suppose I'm hoping that the extreme low & high stalls are generally unsuccessful over this track/trip, so let's check the data from our draw analyser...

...which does tend to suggest that I'm better off avoiding those drawn in the first four stalls, whilst the PRB3 data also says that those drawn 7 to 10 have gone well in the past...

That said, it's not all about the draw when you're racing over a mile and a quarter, as there should be adequate time to overcome a supposedly-poor draw, if you get the race tactics right and according to our pace analyser, those races above have firmly favoured the prominent runner who stalks the leader(s)...

 

..and I suspect off the basis of the field's last four (and more) outings that it might well be LTO winner and Tapeta-debutant New Dayrell who sets the fractions here...

...and our pace/draw heat map based on the data presented so far looks like this...

Summary

Miami Thunder is the one for me here. He's the best positioned on the pace/draw heat map, he's in good form with a win and a runner-up finish from his last two run, both here at Newcastle. He rarely runs a bad race on the A/W, having finished 232512 in his six efforts and at 13/2, he's almost in E/W territory, but I'll back him to win.

Most of the above tells me to avoid Onesmoothoperator, but as a believer in the old "Horses for Courses" adage, I keep coming back to him, purely on his place form here at Newcastle and on Tapeta in general and I think there's still every chance that he'll outrun his 16/1 to 20/1 price tickets. Most firms are paying four places, but with SkyBet paying five, I'd be taking a small E/W punt here at 16's.

Elsewhere, I'd expect the likes of Storm Catcher to finish somewhere between that pair above and as he's priced at 8/1 generally, he'd also be a good E/W chance with those firms paying four places.

 

Racing Insights, Saturday 01/07/23

/in /by

Wow! The second half of the year is already upon us and it kicks off on a Saturday, whose free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated just one qualifier, as follows...

Thankfully I do also have our selection of daily 'free' races at my disposal...

  • 12.40 Newmarket
  • 1.57 Chester
  • 2.05 Newcastle
  • 2.50 Curragh
  • 3.50 Newcastle
  • 5.30 Lingfield

The 'free' list is headed by a Listed contest from HQ, but unexposed 2yr old fillies aren't really my thing and the Northumberland Plate has far too many (19) runners for my liking, but not long after the Plate comes a useful looking contest on the 'free' list at the same venue, so let's look at the 3.50 Newcastle today. It's an 8-runner (fingers crossed), Class 3, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 1m2f on standard to slow tapeta...

Bottom weight Shimmering Sands was the only one of these to win last time out, but all his rivals have won at least one of their last seven outings. Qaasid is in good consistent form, finishing in the first three home in 8 of his last 9 nine starts (inc 2 wins) and he's the only previous course and distance winner in the field and also the only one to have raced at Class 3 last time out.

Elsewhere, Mr Curiosity, Thundering, Noble & Persist all drop in from Class 2, whilst the bottom three on the card, Cockalorum, Innse Gall and Shimmering Sands are all up in class. Aside from C&D winner, Qaasid, only Thundering has won here before, landing a 1m4½f handicap a little over a year ago, but he's one of two along with Mr Curiosity yet to win at today's trip.

The afore-mentioned Mr Curiosity might well need the run after 238 days off the track and at 273 days, you could say the same about Persist, whilst both of their rivals have raced in the past 5 to 7 weeks, bar Cockalorum who was in action at Pontefract last Sunday and will be running for the fourth time since the end of May!

Cockalorum has, in fact, competed 48 times already, whilst this will be just a fifth outing for Nobel and only his second in handicap company, but he did win his sole A/W outing. Instant Expert adds to the above data by informing us that a couple of these are running off marks considerably higher than their last win...

I've a feeling that the place stats might help us a little bit more in the way of data...

...but I'm not sure they clarify the picture for me! Good to see so much green, of course and this remains the course if we look at just A/W form...

...with the sole exception of Shimmering Sands, who tackles the A/W for the first time after ten runs on Turf. He's 3 from 3 over 1m2f including that win LTO, but he's up in class and weight and that allied to no A/W experience might just be too many unknowns here. He's drawn pretty centrally, though, in stall 4 of 8 and is likely to have to pass quite a few runners later on if he's wanting to win again, as the field's recent runs suggest he's probably going to be held up in the rear with the returning Persist...

A quick look at past similar races here says that Shimmering Sand's lower half draw is ideal here, but that his hold-up tactics haven't been the best approach here, as those tracking the leader(s) have fared best of all...

...which is probably better for the likes of Qaasid, just inside him in stall 3, whilst our pace/draw heat map looks like this with our runners superimposed on it...

Nobel is likely to set the pace, but Qaasid seems to have the ideal draw/pace profile here. Thundering will go off quickly, but he's in terrible form, whilst the draw might account for Cockalorum.

Summary

The pace/draw heat map says we should focus on Persist, Thundering, Qaasid and Noble. Noble's a little high in the draw and will be the target they aim for, he's also not in the best of form and has only one prior A/W outing, way back in December 2021. Qaasid, however, is in good nick, has the ideal pace/draw balance and is 2 from 3 on standard to slow and he's the one I'd want to be with here. he's a 5/1 shot in my book, so Bet365's price of 11/2 (at 4.40pm) is acceptable to me.

Of the others, Persist should go well and he'd be a real contender for me off his low draw if he'd had a run at some point in the last nine months and odds of 3/1 aren't appealing. The one at a longer price that might go well for E/W purposes could be Innse Galle near the foot of the weights. He has made the frame in 6 of 7 at this trip, placed twice in four Newcastle outings including two from three over course and distance (a 1-length defeat as runner-up in March) and although this is tougher than his usual races, he's not a bad E/W shout at 10/1.

 

Racing Insights, Tuesday 16/05/23

/in /by

Tuesday's free offering from the GOLD service is the The Shortlist feature, a simple – and usually brief – report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day. It covers win or place stats, and can be viewed for both today’s and tomorrow’s racing.

GREENis good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBERis quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
REDis not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation is – and has always been – that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form - and its odds - imply. As ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information!

And this how The Shortlist looks for this Tuesday...

And we do still also have our daily list of 'free' racecards, which are as follows...

  • 4.25 Chepstow
  • 4.35 Newcastle
  • 6.00 Wetherby
  • 7.15 Sandown
  • 7.35 Killarney
  • 7.55 Sligo

...and although it's not the best race of the day or even the best of the 'free' list, we really should marry the free feature with the free cards and take a quick look at Killane in the 4.35 Newcastle, an 11-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a left-handed 2m1f on good ground...

Magic Mike and featured horse Killane both won last time out and aside from Artic Row's success four races ago, none of the others have won any of five starts with both Ebendi and Bebside Banter failing to complete twice in their last four outings.

The afore mentioned Ebendi makes just a second handicap appearance (fell at 2nd hurdle on hcp debut) and the recently out of sorts (pulled up in two of his last three) Bebside Banter is now fitted with first-time cheeekpieces, meaning that only Minella Youngy, Ebendi and Mactavish run without any headgear/apparatus.

Bebside Banter also drops down from Class 4 here, as do Irish Sovereign and Mactavish, but bottom weight Burnage Boy is up from Class 6 some three months after his last run.

Only Mactavish, who returns from six months off, has been away from the track longer than Burnage Boy, with the rest of the field having raced in April (plus a May outing for Bebside Banter).

As you'd expect from The Shortlist, Killane is a former course and distance winner and none of his rivals have won here before, but Artic Row, Ingleby Mackenzie and Magic Mike have all at least won over a similar trip.

Further conditions-related info courtesy of Instant Expert shows that just five of the field have a good ground NH win, but that half a dozen have won at Class 5. You can adjust the parameters yourself, of course to find the sole Class 4 win, but here are today's relevant win stats...

...where Killane aside, it's a pretty bleak picture. The areas I've most concerns about are Minella Youngy (class/distance), Artic Row (distance), Mactavish (time off/going/distance), Edmond Dantes (distance), Ingleby Mackenzie (class/distance), Magic Mike (going), Burnage Boy (class/distance), phew! Hopefully some of these will have better place records...

Hmmm, not much better to be honest. My next port of call is pace and if the field run like they have been running of late...

...then I'd expect Bebside Banter to be the one setting the tempo of the contest early doors with Mactavish and Minella Youngy the back markers. Featured runner Killane has raced prominently in two if his last four and does tend to run in an advanced position generally, which would seem to suit this race, based on past similar contests...

Summary

I wanted to marry up the free feature with the races of the day and that meant looking at Killane's chances here and the only possible negatives I have about him are that he's up 3lbs from his win a month ago and that we might not get a decent price when the book opens.

That said, he's only one pound higher than a win at Carlisle last year and he's back on good ground after winning on heavy last time out. Price-wise, 5/2 would be tolerable, but if I could get 3/1, I'd be much happier!

Others to note would be Magic Mike and Irish Sovereign with the latter hopefully a double digit-odds E/W option.

Racing Insights, Friday 07/04/23

/in /by

Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the report...

...have sadly yielded no qualifiers for Friday, but I can always fall back upon our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 1.50 Newcastle
  • 2.40 Lingfield
  • 3.25 Bath

As is generally the case, I shy away from the Flat in early April, so the Bath contest is a no-go for me and whilst the Lingfield race is a decent-looking Class 3 handicap, the first on the list is probably the best of the three and that's the 1.50 Newcastle, a 10-runner, Class 2 Conditions Stakes for 3 yr olds. It's over a straight 6f on standard tapeta and a first prize of over £77k awaits one of these...

The entire field has at least one win inside their last four outings with Danger Alert (2 from 3), Desert Cop, Michaela's Boy (2 from 2), Shaquille (2 from 2 and 3 from 4), Hello Queen (2 from 3 ) and Perdika (4 from 4) all winnig last time out.

Less than half of them raced at Class 2 last time out, as Danger Alert, Michaela's Boy, The X O and perdike all step up two classes, whilst Desert Cop raced at Class 5. Conversely, Shouldvebeenaring was beatenh by just over a length in a Listed contest and drops down here.

Perdika wears a tongue tie for the first time here and Michaela's Boy is the only one yet to win over today's trip, although he has won here at Newcastle over 5f, as has Glorious Angel with Hello Queen being our sole course and distance winner having won LTO five weeks ago.

Conditions Stakes mean they all carry 9st 7lbs except the three fillies, Glorious Angel, Hello Queen and Perdika. And with Perdika having the highest OR (104), she's best off at the weights, effectively 6lbs well in with second best Shouldvebeenaring. Desert Cop looks worst off, rated 25lbs worse than perdika, but carrying 5lbs more : that's a tough ask over 6f.

Shaquille might need a run after a four-month break, but aside from Desert Cop's 51-day absence, the others have all raced at least once in the last five weeks. Shaquille, however, is the only runner in the field with a Class 2 A/W win to his name, whilst Desert Cop is the only one without a standard going win. These details along with the course/distance/weight datea can be seen here in Instant Expert...

...from which, I'd say Shaquille, Hello Queen and Perdika caught my eye first. All three are drawn in stalls 7 to 10 with Shouldvebeenaring, but I'd need to check the draw stats to see if that is likely to have any bearing on the outcome...

The 'bias' doesn't appear to be huge with win% ranging from 8.38 to 11.75, but that's possibly bigger than it might seem with 11.75 equating to 140% of 8.38, so in real terms those drawn high are 40% more likely to win here over 6f assuming, of course, they get their tactics right and as with many straight A/W sprints, it has paid to be at the head of affairs...

...which, combined with the draw stats, makes the heat map fairly unsurprising...

If we then look at how the field have approached their most recent races...

...then I'd expect Michaela's Boy, Desert Cop, Shaquille, Glorious Angel and Perdika to be making the running and if we add those runners to our heat map and arrange the field into draw order, it doesn't look good for Shouldvebeenaring, but most of the field would be happy with their lot...

Summary

I expect Michaela's Boy to blast out and attempt to win from the front, but he's up two classes here and has all his best form over 5f. Desert Cop was weak finishing in two 7f contests before landing a Class 5 maiden over 6f last time out, but this is much tougher and might be too much of a step up too soon. Glorious Angel has the benefit of the 5lb allowance but has toiled in her last three UK and one French outing since winning here by a neck over 5f in January.

I don't really fancy any of those three to win and if I was to pick one of those, it would be Michaela's Boy as an E/W pick at a rather attractive 18/1 with Betfair/Paddy Power (or 14's with Hills paying four places).

As for my winner, I think I've narrowed down to Shaquille and Perdika. Both are in good form, Perdika is best off at the weights, both scored well (green) on Instant Expert with Perdika having the better numbers. Both are drawn high and both will race prominently and I'd expect both to be involved. That said, the 6/1 (Bet6365) Perdika appeals more than the 7/2 (Coral & Ladbrokes) Shaquille, so that's how I'd play it.

Good Luck & Happy Easter!

Please note, I'm away at a wedding on Good Friday, so no Saturday preview and I'm back with you on Monday afternoon/evening for Tuesday's racing.