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Racing Insights, 20th October 2020

Very happy with the way Monday's race panned out. I initially eliminated four of the seven runners and my final three were the first three home. Had I been a bit braver, I'd be celebrating a 3/1 winner, but I'd wanted a bit more juice in the price.

So, with a moral victory of sorts behind us, let's move on to Tuesday, where the free feature is The Shortlist and the free racecards cover the following contests...

  • 12.25 Yarmouth
  • 12.55 Yarmouth
  • 2.15 Exeter
  • 2.40 Tipperary
  • 3.40 Fairyhouse
  • 4.20 Yarmouth

Of the six races above, only the Exeter one was of initial interest, but there's likely to be an odds-on favourite in there and the going is likely to see a few pull out, so I've decided to leave it alone and look at The Shortlist report to see if any of the runners featured might be worth sticking a quid (or more) on.

So, without further unnecessary ado...

A trio to consider with plenty of green to look at, so let's go in time order and start with Intrinsic Bond...

He has been in good form for some time now with 3 wins and 2 places from 7 runs over the last year (more on that shortly) and hails from a yard with three winners from seven (42.9%) so far this month and a decent record here at Newcastle including 7 winners from 33 (21.2%) this year, of which those racing over this course and distance are 3 from 7 (42.9%)

Next up, Instant Expert...

This is what gets him on the shortlist and over the last year, he has 3 wins and 2 places from 7 starts, including 3 wins and a place from 6 on a straight run, 3 wins and a place from 5 where the market deemed he had a chance, 3 wins and a place under Jason Hart, two wins and a place from four over 6f, two wins from three at Class 4, but just one placed effort in this grade and he won on his only previous visit to this track (over course and distance).

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He's drawn right out in 14 of 14, but that's not always a negative, as (a) there are no bends to contend with 9b) our pace/draw heat map suggests he could actually be in a decent spot out wide...

Overall, I'd expect him to be well suited to the task, but he's up 3lbs for a nice win on soft ground at Redcar last time out and also steps up in class. He handles the surface well enough and gets on great with today's jockey and his yard is in decent general form and also more long-term at this venue. Definite chance here.

And now to Skyace...

Trainer John Joseph Hanlon's runner here makes a second attempt at landing a handicap but the stats aren't good on that front, as the yard's stats with 2nd timers stands at just one win from the last 23 efforts, although that win was just 2 qualifiers ago. The hanlon runners are 4 from 15 (26.7%) here at Tipperary since the start of 2019, which is promising, but at 1/5 over hurdles, 0/5 in handicaps and 0/2 in handicap hurdles, the optimism does diminish.

But how might this one fare under today's conditions...

Well, he has two wins and a place from five efforts over hurdles, but after winning his first two, has struggled under weights of 11 stone-plus, toiling to a combined deficit of some 114 lengths in the three defeats since, but he's not on the shortlist for no reason, as his three placed finishes came in less valuable races like this one, he has won in a hood and did win here over course and distance.

In such races here at Tipperary, it has paid to remain in touch, but not race too prominently as shown below...

...but I feel a change of tactics would be needed here, as he has tended to race a bit more keenly of late and that's not going to be beneficial here.

Overall, he's out of sorts and represents a yard with a poor record with 2nd time handicappers and a poor record at this venue in this kind of race. He clearly has ability, but carries too much weight again here for my liking and I'm calling him as one to avoid.

Last up for today is Molly Shaw, who goes in one of our free races of the day, a 16-runner, Class 6, 6f  soft-ground "sprint", so you can see why I wasn't keen on a full race analysis of this one, but let's see if Molly Shaw might be in with a shout...

As the snippets show, the yard has done well here at Yarmouth over the past year, whilst Jack Mitchell has enjoyed plenty of success riding the Wall runners. Incidentally, on the trainer/jockey/course angle, the last five runners have finished 11152 including a win for today's runner back in August.

For her part, Molly is 113 in handicaps, all over a straight 6f strip including 2 from 2 at Class 6, 2 from 2 under Jack Mitchell and despite no run on soft ground, she did win her only attempt on good to soft ground.

Pace/draw-wise, it looks like wide-drawn prominent runners hold the key to success in this type of contest...

...and whilst Young John looks set to get out and make the pace, he's probably 20/1 for a reason and if our girl follows him, she could be expertly placed to pick up the pieces as the leader weakens late on, as reports from 5 of his last 6 outings suggest he will.

Summary

I've little/no interest in the Tipperary runner, there's not much in what I've seen that would make me believe he'll suddenly start winning again, but our other two runners have serious chances, but you'd want a price on them.

Both run in very competitive big-field contests and Intrinsic Bond is up in weight and class and is unproven at that level, whilst Molly Shaw has no form on soft ground at all. That doesn't mean she won't handle it, of course, but it's a big unknown. I expect both to give good accounts of themselves.

Both should be there or thereabouts and if she handles the ground Molly Shaw could be a nice pick at odds of 7/1 or hopefully better. Ideally I'd want at least 8's if not double digits, so you could then take a 4-place E/W run at her.

As for Intrinsic Bond, I do like him, but I'm not sure he's quite good enough at this level and he's already as low as 10/3 which is too short for my liking.

Racing Insights, 16th October 2020

On Fridays, the Horses for Courses report is free to all users, so let's take a look and see if there's anything of interest, shall we?

Obviously you can set your own parameters and the lower the required Win Strike Rate, then the more qualifiers you'll have, but I want to look at these with a record of 1 in 3 or better who have made the frame in at least half of their course appearances to see if they're likely to improve upon the figures shown.

I've merely arranged them in time order with no other reasoning and let's consider each in turn starting with Fact Flow...

On the plus side, this 11 yr old gelding has two wins and a place from six handicap chase efforts on this track, he has won twice in eight starts under today's jockey Robert Dunne and is two from seven in the lower prize funded Class 4 contests.

He is now running off a mark some 10lbs lower than his last win and despite this being a 17-runner contest, he did win a 16-runner affair here over 2m6.5f in 2018 and was placed third in his only previous effort over course and distance.

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However, he has no win in ten since scoring here over 2m4f back in November 2018 on good to soft ground and is 004 on soft. He has never won beyond 2m6.5f, has never won after more than four weeks rest and comes here having been soundly beaten by a combined 92 lengths in his last three contests.

Next up, we have Everyhouronthehour...

We've the bonus of an in-form (14) jockey with a good course record (C5) aboard this 4 yr old gelding who has finished 521419 in six starts here at Dundalk.

He recently won over a mile on turf at Gowran Park and ran a very good race as runner-up off today's mark at the Curragh, also over a mile when last seen almost three weeks ago.

In addition to that, he has finished 14191 when sent off shorter than 5/1, so the market seems to be a good judge of his chances, he has a win and a further place from three runs wearing a tongue tie and was a winner on the only previous occasion that Colin Keane was in the saddle (at Gowran two starts ago).

The downside is that he hasn't even made the frame when dropped into a 7f contest, finishing 059 with the last two of those coming here at Dundalk, but he does like to press on, so that might help here. He was a creditable second off today's mark of 62 last time out, but that's 5lbs higher than his previous highest winning mark.

And finally, we turn to Castle Quarter at Newcastle...

This 4yr old gelding is 13137 here at Newcastle, all over 7f and tries a mile here for the first time. He was only beaten by three lengths last time out when seventh here and has now been eased a couple of pounds in the weights.

He has won at this grade and is one from two under today's jockey David Nolan whose C1 icon signifies a good record on this track over the last year. It's interesting to see a return to cheekpieces after wearing blinkers for his last five runs, but he has run well with the 'pieces in place previously, finishing 183.

There is however a doubt that he doesn't "get" further than seven furlongs, having to failed to win any of his four attempts, but he does like this track and this might represent his best chance to win at a longer trip so far.

Summary

I personally feel that today has been a very worthwhile exercise in reinforcing the Geegeez message that you have to use stats as a starting point, but look beyond them before making a final decision.

On face value, the Horses for Courses report suggests we've three "live" chances for Friday, but my personal opinion is that you should leave all three alone : I'm certainly doing just that.

Fact Flow isn't getting any younger (I feel and share his pain) and probably won't have many more bites at the cherry, but if connections feel he's one more win in him, then the recent wind op will need to be a miracle worker. He's bang out of form and 33/1 for a reason. I'd expect him to finish nearer the back than the front.

Everyhouronthehour on the other hand is more than capable of winning, so why won't I back him? Well, taking 11/4 about him in a 14-horse contest doesn't float my boat from a value perspective, especially when ou consider he hasn't won at this shorter trip and is at a career-high mark. I think I'll pass, meaning he's likely to win!

And Castle Quarter is unproven beyond 7f and has only one win in ten at this grade. If there was such a thing or horse, he's a Class 5.5 runner or plain Class 6.  This is too much for him off this mark.

Racing Insights, 2nd October 2020

Yesterday's piece focused around a couple of prominent/front runners who featured well on the Instant Expert report and had a good pace/draw combination. As it was He's A Laddie made a right hash of the bend on his return from a long lay-off ruining both his own and the favourite's race in the process.

Drakefell, on the other hand, made a much better fist of it and although ultimately outclassed, certainly ran his own race and wasn't beaten by far. He was unable to get the lead I thought he'd need and as such was overhauled sooner than I'd have liked. That said at 12/1, he gave punters a good run for their money, missing the frame by less than a length and finishing less than 3 lengths behind the winner.

And that's the story from Thursday, now we move onto...

Friday 2nd October

Feature of the Day is the Horses for Courses report, which is free to all registered subscribers. Register here if you need to.

Friday's free Races of the Day are

2.35 Gowran Park
4.20 Gowran Park
4.55 Gowran Park
5.10 Dundalk
8.00 Newcastle
8.30 Newcastle

I've got to be honest here, I'm not a massive fan of 17-runner Irish hurdle contests (Matt says I'm a coward!) and the Dundalk meeting held little appeal to me either, so I'm heading for more familiar territory and a Friday night in Newcastle. Sadly, not down the Bigg Market or Riverside on the lash, but the five furlong strip of tapeta at Gosforth Park and the last race on the card, the 8.30 Newcastle.

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This race features three runners on the Horses for Courses report, so let's take a look at those three and see if one of them has any chance of adding to their already decent course records.

So let's show you the H4C report that highlights three runners of interest...

Report parameters are a personal choice of course, but for H4C I like runners with 10+ runs, a strike rate of 20% or higher and a place strike rate of around 50% if not better with a little leeway allowed on the place side of things to account for odd numbers of races if nothing else!

I think the above Newcastle stats are self-explanatory, but they don't factor in the trip, class or mark.

Another Angel has 7 wins, 5 places 17 over the 5f course and distance including 3 wins and 2 places at Class 5 and has finished 313 over C&D off marks higher than the 75 he'll run off here.

Young Tiger has 3 wins and 4 places from 13 over C&D, but all his wins have been at Class 6 and he'd actually need a career best to win here as, his highest winning mark anywhere is 3lbs lower than today's OR.

And finally, Be Proud, who I'd expect to go off as favourite, his C&D record is 2 wins, 2 places from 8 with both wins coming at Class 6 and his own highest winning mark is 62, but he races off 69 here.

So, for this part, I'd say Another Angel has the advantage. Let's look at the racecard itself...

...where despite being ridden by a jockey short of winners recently, Young Tiger edges it thanks to his yards record of 13 winners from 64 (20.3% SR) in A/W handicaps here at Newcastle and these include 3 from 14 (21.4%) over 5f and 4 from 22 (18.2%) at Class 5.

Next, we can look at the pace/draw heatmap...

...but I'd say that it was relatively inconclusive. Neither Young Tiger nor Be Proud are well drawn for their running style, whilst Another Angel is in a strange situation. If he was to press a little harder, he's very well drawn, but if he dwells at the start, he's probably toast. There are, however, a couple of confirmed front runners in the middle of the pack who might just drag Another Angel along for the ride.

Summary

Do I think either of my three featured runners will win?

Gut instinct tells me that Be Proud will go off as a favourite at 4/1 or shorter and could very well win, but I don't think there's any value in him at that price, especially with the improvement he'd need to show.

Another Angel has beaten both of them in the past but looks out of form and a bit too high in the weights for me. He could very well spring back into action and grab a place at 16's or bigger, but if I had to have a bet here : Young Tiger would be the one. His yard have done well here in the past and he rarely has a bad outing.

Five wins and seven further top 3 finishes from 15 runs over the last year or so show he's a consistent sort worth a second look. That's where I'd stop and I'd keep my money in my pocket, but if you did want a small punt for interest, then maybe see if you can get double digits each way about him.

The stats may not have led us to a concrete bet here, but that's a good thing, folks. It's very easy to get sucked in by a stat or two : the key thing is to recognise that not all stats are key or relevant.

Stat of the Day, 11th July 2020

Friday's pick was...

6.05 Bath : Pink Flamingo @ 3/1 BOG 5th at 7/2 (Held up towards rear, pushed along over 1f out, stayed on final furlong, nearest finish)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

4.50 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Canagat @ 5/2 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 4, A/W handicap for 3yo over 1m on Tapeta worth £4,690 to the winner... 

Why?...

According to the racecard, this 3 yr old colt takes a drop in class from his last run 17 days ago and is of immediate interest, because...

He's drawn is stall 4 today and a quick glance at the pace/draw heat map shows...

I don't think any of the above needs explaining (but please do ask if something is unclear, I don't bite), whilst the horse himself has already proved to like an artificial surface...

He has finished 311 on the A/W so far, including one here at Newcastle (also Class 4 with Hollie Doyle on board, but over 7f two starts ago).

And the only thing I'm going to add to all of the evidence above is that of the Trainer/Jockey record of 6 wins from 13 here at Newcastle over the last year, seven of those races were handicaps over trips of 6 to 10 furlongs and the results are astonishing at 1111211 including Canagat winning here on the 2nd June, the same day as Glen Shiel was the only loser in that sequence, although he has won here at Newcastle since (Class 2 under Hollie Doyle!)...

...all of which steered me towards...a 1pt win bet on Canagat @ 5/2 BOG as was widely available at 8.20am Saturday (although a couple of firms were at 11/4), but as always please check your BOG statusTo see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 4.50 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 27th June 2020

Friday's pick was...

12.15 Doncaster : National Anthem @ 7/2 BOG (3/1 after a 20p Rule 4 deduction) WON at 10/3 (Awkwardly away, soon prominent towards far side, led over 1f out, ridden and ran on well to win by a length) - Nice to get back amongst the winners again.

Saturday's pick runs in the...

3.00 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Nkosikazi @ 5/1 BOG

...in a 6-runner, Fillies And Mares Group 3 contest for 3yo+ over 1m2f on Tapeta worth £20,983 to the winner... 

Why?...

They say a picture paints a thousand words, so today's piece is going to rely heavily on visuals, starting with...

...the unique Geegeez racecard...

...which has a red number 2, which when clicked opens...

...then the pace/draw heat map for 5-6 runners contests over C&D...

...and the GGZ Speed Rating of 85...

She won nicely at Redcar nine days ago off the back of a 231 day absence. I actually backed her that day too, so I'm very aware that more is needed from her today, but she should hopefully come on for having had the run and she did look like she had plenty more to give if needed.

The step up in class allied to this being her debut on Tapeta (14 Flat runs and 2 on Poly @ Lingfield, including a third place in a Listed event under Tom Marquand when beaten by less than a length) are the reasons why she's as big as 5/1 in a 6-runner field, but surely there's some value there.

I do think I've already got enough evidence to suggest she's worth putting my cash down on her, but let's also briefly consider trainer William Haggas who has a great record when introducing previously raced horses to a new A/W surface for the first time ie...

...impressive stuff indeed, and here are 10 (relevant today) ways Mr Haggas got those 60 winners...

  • 56 from 142 (39.4%) for 72.3pts (+50.9%) over trips of 7f to 1m5f
  • 46 from 119 (38.7%) for 62.93pts (+52.9%) ran on the Flat LTO
  • 34 from 91 (37.4%) for 27.65pts (+30.4%) in non-handicaps
  • 31 from 79 (39.2%) for 86.54pts (+109.54%) at odds ranging from 5/2 to 9/1
  • 24 from 61 (39.3%) for 13.31pts (+21.8%) on Tapeta
  • 11 from 28 (39.3%) for 7.2pts (+25.7%) here at Newcastle
  • 7 from 12 (58.3%) for 15.19pts (+126.6%) in races worth £17k to £30k
  • 6 from 19 (31.6%) for 8.84pts (+46.5%) with Tom Marquand in the saddle
  • 5 from 11 (45.5%) for 8.73pts (+79.3%) at Class 1
  • and 4 from 11 (36.4%) for 0.79pts (+7.18%) from those stepping up by two classes or more

As ever, we can put some of the above together to form a composite micro-angle (long-term readers love a good composite), but we run the risk of diluting the dataset by adding more filters. However, (returning back to the visuals), you could try...

...from which...

...and they include...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Nkosikazi @ 5/1 BOG as was widely available at 8.10am Saturday, but as always please check your BOG statusTo see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 3.00 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 6th June 2020

Friday's pick was...

2.05 Lingfield : Corvair @ 7/2 BOG 8th at 10/3 (Chased leaders, ridden 2f out, faded inside final 100 yards)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

4.30 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Astrozone @ 9/1 or 17/2 BOG

...in a 12-runner, Class 5, A/W handicap for 3yo over 5f on Tapeta worth £3,493 to the winner...

Why?...

Saturday is generally a pretty tough day for us guys who stick our necks out each morning and publicly suggest a horse is worth a second look. Today is probably tougher still with the obvious lack of recent form/data to go on.

With that in mind, I've opted to seek one with a chance at a decent price, which won't upset me if it doesn't win. I'll keep the stats fairly simple and I'll also graphically (not up to Matt's standard, mind) demonstrate why I think we could have a chance.

Astrozone is a 3 yr old filly who has made the frame in each of her last six runs, all at this class (5) and trip (5f) and has proved versatile regarding going/surface. She was a winner two starts ago (runner-up LTO) off a mark of 66 and is eased a pound today back to an OR of 65.

She is trained by Bryan Smart whose modest figures since the start of 2017 of...

...are dramatically improved to...

...when looking at his sub-12/1 handicappers here at Newcastle with an Impact Value of 2.12. These 54 runners, when assessed against today's conditions are...

  • 11 from 48 (22.9%) for 36.4pts (+75.9%) at Classes 4 to 6
  • 6 from 24 (25%) for 11.92pts (+49.7%) after finishing 2nd to 4th LTO
  • 5 from 20 (25%) for 25.6pts (+127.7%) off a mark of 56-65
  • and 3 from 7 (42.9%) for 24.31pts (+347.3%) after a 3 to 6 month layoff

She's drawn in stall 9 which seems to be smack bang in the middle of the where the pace is expected to be

in a contest where being drawn high also seems favourable as shown in the pace/draw heat map

There's enough there in the data/graphics to suggest we should at least get a good run for our money at a nice price...

...hence me going for...a 1pt win bet on Astrozone @ 9/1 or 17/2 BOG as was offered by Bet365 and 888Sport/Hills respectively at 8.15am Saturday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.30 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 4th June 2020

Wednesday's pick was...

1.20 Yarmouth : Dubious Affair @ 9/2 BOG WON at 7/1 (Close up, ridden 2f out, headway entering final furlong, soon led, ran on to win by a length and a half) A lovely drift and a timely reminder that the market isn't always right.

Thursday's pick runs in the...

5.05 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Buniann @ 5/1 BOG

...in a 12-runner, Class 5, A/W handicap for 4yo+ over 5f on Tapeta worth £3,493 to the winner...

Why?...

Well, I'm going to look at the relevant details regarding the horse, trainer and jockey in more detail to back up why I'd expect a decent run for my money today (yes, I also put my own real money on these, sharing the ups and downs with you!). So without further ado...

The horse...is a 4 yr old gelding who has won two of his last five outings and finished as a runner-up in one of the three defeats. He won here at Newcastle over course and distance last time out at the very end of February and now had 2 wins and a runner-up finish from four runs here on this track, all over this 5f trip and two win from three at this grade.

So, that's (relatively) recent form, course form, distance form, C&D form and class form all ticked, let's move on to...

The trainer, Paul Midgely who has an excellent record in getting LTO winners to win again and since the start of 2011, it has been profitable to back those runners blindly every year bar 2013. Backing all those runners over the last 9 years would have seen you collect winnings on 41 of your 285 bets (14.4% SR), banking a not insignificant £1763 profit to a level £10 stake, or a 62.1% return on your investments.

I never advocate backing so many horses blindly and prefer to impose logical filters to reduce the number of bets and therefore outlayed risk and also to hopefully improve the strike rate and/or ROI numbers. So, from the 285 Midgely LTO winners...

  • handicappers are 36/256 (14.1%) for 168.5pts (+66.1%)
  • males are 36/233 (15.5%) for 171.7pts (+74%)
  • during June-September, it's 35/198 (17.7%) for 144.5pts (+73.4%)
  • over the minimum 5f trip : 23/157 (14.7%) for 80.6pts (+51.7%)
  • since the start of 2016 (so we're not leaning on very old data!) : 20/97 (20.6%) for 98pts (+101%)
  • and 4/5 yr olds are 20/94 (21.3%) for 118.6pts (+126.2%)

Personally, I like to combine the more prolific subsets of data to make myself an angle that I can come back to later and if I was doing that from the above options, I'd want to make a mental note to seek out Paul Midgely's male LTO winners running in handicaps during June, July & August. This would give me 23 winners from 116 (19.8% SR) and 139.9pts (+121.6% ROI) profit.

This angle produces 79.4% of the original profit from just 40.7% of the original number of bets and as it retains 56.1% of the original winners, it's a far more efficient approach. I appreciate that this might still be too many bets to consider, so we can drill down further into those 116 bets to discover...

  • 12 from 49 (24.5%) for 41.3pts (+84.3%) since the start of 2017
  • 11/56 (19.6%) for 52.8pts (+96.1%) over 5 furlongs
  • 10/43 (23.3%) for 57.8pts (+134.5%) for 4/5 yr olds
  • 7/27 (25.9%) for 38.6pts (+143%) over 5f since the start of 2017
  • 5/17 (29.4%) for 29.2pts (+171.8%) for 4/5 yr olds since the start of 2017
  • 4/18 (22.2%) for 12.2pts (+67.8%) for 4/5 yr olds over 5f
  • and 3/8 (37.5%) for 16.6pts (+207.4%) for 4/5 yr olds over 5f since the start of 2017

I think you get the picture there, so let's cap today's piece off with a quick look at...

Today's jockey, Kevin Stott, because he rides the Tapeta here at Newcastle better than many other jockeys, having a record of 31 winners from 200 (15.5% SR) rides here, generating level stakes profits of 47.1pts at an ROI of 23.5% along the way. Useful numbers indeed, including of particular interest today...

  • 30/179 (16.8%) for 65.4pts (+36.5%) at Class 4 or lower
  • 25/147 (17%) for 4.07pts (+2.8%) in handicaps
  • 25/80 (31.25%) for 33.3pts (+41.7%) on horses sent off at odds ranging from 5/4 to 13/2
  • and 5/31 (16.1%) for 4.14pts (+13.4%) over this 5f course and distance

If, like the trainer details above, you wanted a composite angle here, you could back Kevin Stott when sent off at 5/4 to 13/2 in Class 4 or lower Newcastle handicaps. This produces 21 winners from 60 (35% SR) for 37.8pts (+63% ROI) and includes 7/16 (43.75%) for 21.2pts (+132.3%) at Class 5 and 2/7 (28.6%) for 3.65pts (+52.1%) over this C&D...

...all of which pointed me towards...a 1pt win bet on Buniann @ 5/1 BOG as was offered by BetVictor & Hills at 8.05am Thursday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 5.05 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Monday Musings: We’re On!

So finally, after 76 days, 330 lost meetings and something of a cliff-hanger, the wait is officially over, writes Tony Stafford. Oliver Dowden, Minister for Digital, Culture, Media and Sport, was in the saddle to announce the go-ahead at Saturday’s coronavirus briefing in Downing Street. Thus, unlike his government’s much-maligned advisor Dominic Cummings, Newmarket trainers and horses will legally have carte blanche to take the long road north to Newcastle.

With ten races both on Monday and Tuesday at Gosforth Park, all limited to maximum fields of 12, it might have been expected that there would be an imbalance of runners from HQ. In the event, while there are Newmarket-trained representatives in most (eight) races on Monday and all ten on Tuesday, the total is a fairly modest 22 on the opening day and only 15 on the second, which must have been a relief for many trainers and owners in the north.

Kempton on Tuesday predictably has a southern bias, but it will not be until today Monday’s 72-hour declarations for the first of four days at Newmarket that the skilful hand of the BHA will be properly shown. The first four of seven races are all restricted to two-year-olds and, with the same limitation of 12 runners per race as elsewhere, three of the four can be divided. That means we will have seven races for juveniles, helping to make a start to redressing a few of the forfeited opportunities in the void of April and May.

Smaller fields and racing behind closed doors will enable the continued practising of social distancing rules. With the last week also (thanks principally to a big drop on the Tuesday after the latest Bank Holiday) contributing another approximate 20 per cent fall in the number of UK deaths (on my figures a 21.4% decline and 1696 deaths), the government felt able to counter some northern politicians who wanted a further delay. Even more compelling is the continued reduction in the weekly numbers in hospital suffering from the disease, down 15% on the week.

Dowden clearly believes that horse racing will be an important potential agent for renewed public confidence after the shock and denial of entertainment of the past 11 weeks. Even better news for the man in the street, not that he’s been anywhere in sight of late, is the prospect of re-opened betting shops on Royal Ascot eve, Monday June 15. Just as it was deemed possible to regulate customer-flow in supermarkets at the height of public hysteria and fear about Covid-19 - which would have been fine apart from many customers’ refusal to comply with the two-metre apart arrows - then it should be easy enough to allow the smaller volume of people wishing to enter betting shops to do so in an orderly and safe fashion.

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With top professional football also resuming that week, couch potatoes will be in their element. However it’s the four days of Newmarket that excite me with last year’s Derby winner, Anthony Van Dyck, heading a possible team of three from Ballydoyle in the Hurworth Bloodstock Coronation Cup, transferred from Epsom. Broome and Sir Dragonet can bolster the Aidan O’Brien team and the Irish maestro is reportedly taking a short lease on a property in the town to accommodate his staff in what will be something of a satellite operation with 14-day isolation rules in place while the horses can fly back and forth as needed.

Two other highly-interesting names are included in the 11-horse entry, with Stradivarius, champion stayer for the past two years, dropping back to a mile and a half, and Godolphin’s Ghaiyyath, who would have been one of the obvious favourites had the Dubai World Cup meeting gone ahead as planned, representing Charlie Appleby. Ghaiyyath has the advantage of a run this year, winning a Meydan Group 3 by eight lengths in late February.

At five, so a year younger than Stradivarius, he is lightly-raced with six wins in nine starts, but critics will point to his flop when only tenth of 12 in last autumn’s Arc behind Waldgeist and Enable. So far he has yet to click on the biggest days but his official mark of 126 clearly indicates what a classy performer he is.

Later today, the acceptors will be known for the 2000 Guineas but also today the French maintain their edge of getting going first of the three major European racing powers with both Guineas mile Classics, transferred to Deauville from Longchamp. That latter track was summarily, but probably only temporarily, closed after an initial flurry three weeks ago.

Many of the big trainers are based near or in Chantilly, which was previously also in the same proscribed Red Zone as Paris proper, but they will have been relieved that Chantilly has now been given the all-clear so meetings there and at nearby Compiegne can resume from this week. One obvious exception is Jean-Claude Rouget who trains in the west, so within easy reach of Deauville. Rouget and Andre Fabre both have fancied runners in each race, but I expect Ecrivain, second while not getting a clear run in the trial (Fontainebleau) three weeks again, to beat both in the “2000” for the Carlos Laffon-Parias stable.

As with the Coronation Cup, Appleby and O’Brien will be going head to head on Saturday in the 2000 Guineas, but five-day confirmations will not be known until after these words are published on Monday morning. Pinatubo has been favourite, and a short-priced one throughout the winter and the subsequent period of no racing, and remains odds-on to confirm his superiority over Coolmore’s Arizona, whom he beat by two lengths in the Dewhurst Stakes last October.

While confidence abounds in the favourite, word from Ireland suggests that O’Brien, already winner of the Newmarket colts’ Classic ten times, could not be happier with Arizona’s progress, so an each-way bet at the prevailing 6-1 could be a value bet-to-nothing, possibly with a small saver to be second to the favourite as insurance.

Ryan Moore has had his moments of misfortune as well as success in the 2000 Guineas in the past decade, winning on Churchill and Gleneagles, but having to watch from Churchill Downs two years ago while Donnacha O’Brien collected on Saxon Warrior before his own unfortunate ride on Mendelssohn in the Kentucky Derby. Last May he looked across from the middle of track on the non-staying favourite Ten Sovereigns as stable-mate Magna Grecia, again with the younger O’Brien son riding, swept to victory up the stands rail.

Ryan’s international pursuit of big prizes has often extended across to Japan and as recently as last November he teamed up with the two-year-old Contrail to win a Group 3 race in Tokyo. The colt won two more important races without Ryan, the Group 1 Hopeful last backend and the Japanese 2000 Guineas (Satsuki Sho) this spring. Both races were over ten furlongs and Yuichi Fukanaga had the mount each time. Contrail won the Guineas by half a length when the runner-up was Salios.

I’m sure that without those quarantine rules, Ryan would have been seeking out connections to try to get back on Contrail in yesterday’s Japanese Derby (Tokyo Yushun) for which he was the 2-5 favourite in a field of 16 over the mile and a half trip. Salios again proved to be his main challenger but this time the victory margin was three lengths as the winner, a son of star stallion Deep Impact, took home the first prize of more than £1.5 million.

No doubt Moore will be fully aware of the missed jockey’s share, but will hope he can pick up some compensation nearer home. Already O’Brien has intimated that the jockey will not be going across to The Curragh for the following weekend’s Guineas double. As to Contrail he seems to be following hard on the example of the brilliant filly Almond Eye as another potential Japanese star set to take on the world’s best in the coming months.

- TS

Stat of the Day, 1st June 2020

Tuesday March 24th's pick was...

5.00 Clonmel : Frontal Assault @ 11/4 BOG 5th at 9/4 (Tracked leaders, pushed along briefly 7f out, improved to dispute lead 3f out, ridden entering straight, headed 2f out, dropped to moderate 5th 1f out, no impression) Thankfully, I don't need to rely on Irish racing any longer : definitely a failed experiment.

Monday's pick runs in the...

4.30 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Who?

Be Proud @ 4/1 BOG

...in a 12-runner, Class 5 A/W handicap for 4yo+ over 5f on Standard to Slow Tapeta worth £3,493 to the winner...

Why?...

Here we have a 4 yr old gelding whose modest career record to date of just 2 wins and 7 places from 24 starts might not make him an obvious candidate, but I'm happy to discard his failure to win any of his 13 attempts on turf to focus on an All-Weather record at 2 wins and 3 places from 11 starts that is further inmproved to 2 wins, 3 further places from 8 here at Newcastle.

A 62.5% overall place strike rate including a 25% win record on one track is certainly of more appeal and all 8 runs were in handicaps for trainer Jim Goldie and they also include of relevance today...

  • 2 wins and 2 further places from 6 over course and distance
  • 2 wins and another place from 5 when sent off as favourite, as seems likely today
  • 2 wins from 3 starts in 12-runner contests
  • and one win from two when ridden by today's jockey, Daniel Tudhope...

...who himself had a brilliant time of it here last year winning 19 of 78 (24.4% SR) races, generating level stakes profits of 23.9pts at Betfair SP, the equivalent of a 30.7% return on stakes invested, from which he was...

  • 13 from 56 (23.2%) for 20.2pts (+36%) in handicaps
  • 3 from 10 (30%) for 2.22pts (+22.2%) over this 5f course and distance
  • and 3 from 6 (50%) for 23.3pts (+388.6%) for trainer Jim Goldie.

That performance for today's trainer was no short term flash in the pan either as today the Goldie/Tudhope combo has 7 winners from 16 her at Newcastle since the start of 2017 with the resultant 43.75% strike rate generating 28.5pts profit at an ROI of 177.9% and this includes..

  • 6/15 (40%) for 16.1pts (+107.1%) in handicaps
  • and 3/6 (50%) for 4.2pts (+70%) over this 5f course and distance (all in handicaps)...

...all of which points to...a 1pt win bet on Be Proud @ 4/1 BOG as was quite widely available at 8.00am Monday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.30 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 1st June 2020

Tuesday March 24th's pick was...

5.00 Clonmel : Frontal Assault @ 11/4 BOG 5th at 9/4 (Tracked leaders, pushed along briefly 7f out, improved to dispute lead 3f out, ridden entering straight, headed 2f out, dropped to moderate 5th 1f out, no impression) Thankfully, I don't need to rely on Irish racing any longer : definitely a failed experiment.

Monday's pick runs in the...

4.30 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Be Proud @ 4/1 BOG

...in a 12-runner, Class 5 A/W handicap for 4yo+ over 5f on Standard to Slow Tapeta worth £3,493 to the winner...

Why?...

Here we have a 4 yr old gelding whose modest career record to date of just 2 wins and 7 places from 24 starts might not make him an obvious candidate, but I'm happy to discard his failure to win any of his 13 attempts on turf to focus on an All-Weather record at 2 wins and 3 places from 11 starts that is further inmproved to 2 wins, 3 further places from 8 here at Newcastle.

A 62.5% overall place strike rate including a 25% win record on one track is certainly of more appeal and all 8 runs were in handicaps for trainer Jim Goldie and they also include of relevance today...

  • 2 wins and 2 further places from 6 over course and distance
  • 2 wins and another place from 5 when sent off as favourite, as seems likely today
  • 2 wins from 3 starts in 12-runner contests
  • and one win from two when ridden by today's jockey, Daniel Tudhope...

...who himself had a brilliant time of it here last year winning 19 of 78 (24.4% SR) races, generating level stakes profits of 23.9pts at Betfair SP, the equivalent of a 30.7% return on stakes invested, from which he was...

  • 13 from 56 (23.2%) for 20.2pts (+36%) in handicaps
  • 3 from 10 (30%) for 2.22pts (+22.2%) over this 5f course and distance
  • and 3 from 6 (50%) for 23.3pts (+388.6%) for trainer Jim Goldie.

That performance for today's trainer was no short term flash in the pan either as today the Goldie/Tudhope combo has 7 winners from 16 her at Newcastle since the start of 2017 with the resultant 43.75% strike rate generating 28.5pts profit at an ROI of 177.9% and this includes..

  • 6/15 (40%) for 16.1pts (+107.1%) in handicaps
  • and 3/6 (50%) for 4.2pts (+70%) over this 5f course and distance (all in handicaps)...

...all of which points to...a 1pt win bet on Be Proud @ 4/1 BOG as was quite widely available at 8.00am Monday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.30 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Newcastle Punting Pointers: The Angles of the North?

In my last article I accidentally stumbled into unpicking all-weather course form and the relative importance of it at each track in the UK, writes Jon Shenton.  It wasn’t my intention to evaluate anything in that area; however, when exploring a vast ocean of data sometimes you end up going where the wind takes you as thoughts develop around the words and numbers on paper.

If you didn’t read that article (link here), a tentative conclusion was that a previous course win was more indicative of a likely follow up victory at Newcastle than any other all-weather surface.

Until that moment I had very limited interest in the tapeta at Gosforth Park as a vehicle for punting. Aside from the odd evening “leisure” bet, almost universally doomed to failure, I’ve hitherto watched perplexed from afar.

To my untrained eye the victors seemed to be pattern-less in terms of my usual all weather starting points of pace and draw, the immaturity of the surface also meaning data regarding trainer, sire and anything else you can think of is less reliable from which to build even vague conclusions.

So, when the intel from that last article showed Newcastle in a favourable light it got me thinking: it was time to have a proper delve into the delights of the northeast venue.

There is a uniqueness regarding Newcastle compared with its AW cousins. Namely, that it has a straight mile. Apart from Newcastle’s five to eight-furlong and Southwell’s five furlong straight track all other races on AW in Britain and Ireland are contested around a bend.   This could be of potential interest for a number of reasons. As I’ve already alluded to, the usual staples of pace and draw could be less important without a turn than we see at other AW venues?

 

Why could pace and draw be less relevant at the Newcastle straight track?

To start with, on a straight track all of the horses compete over exactly the same distance.  This is not the case when racing around a bend where inside draws have a shorter distance to run.

Imagine an Olympic 200m final around a tight bend where all athletes start at the same point.  Not even a peak Usain Bolt content on fried chicken could overcome a lane 8 / car park draw unless he was running against people like me.

As well as the emphasis of draw on a turning track the AW tracks typically are tight in nature, with shortish home straights. This often leads to greater extremes of front runner bias. Thus finding a competitive front running animal with an inside draw on the AW is usually a compelling wagering proposition.

All of this points to Newcastle being a fairer test over the straight track than the other artificial surfaces racing around a turn. Fairer for the runners and riders, but trickier for punters?

Could it be that factors such as course form, pedigree or trainer angles play a more significant part in determining the outcome of a race? That’s all supposition at the moment, but let’s dive into it.

A continuation of the course form theme seems like as good a place to start as anywhere.

 

Course Form at Newcastle

A quick refresher, the graph below is from the previous article, it shows the adjusted strike rates at UK all-weather courses split by horses’ number of previous wins at the same track.  The adjusted view was to reflect/standardise the effect of different field sizes. In other words, a race at Newcastle should be harder to win as the average number of runners is 10.9 whilst at Chelmsford it’s a more meagre 9.05.

 

 

The green line to a clear degree illustrates that Newcastle previous winners have a higher probability of a future win than course winners at other AW tracks.

By adopting the same method but splitting the Newcastle races by straight/round track performance we hopefully will find something of interest. Firstly, we need to take field sizes into account.  Straight track races are popular with an average of 11.28 entrants per event, 1.11 more than the round track average field size of 10.17.

 

NEWCASTLE Avg Field Multiplier
5-8F STRAIGHT 11.28 1.16
8.5F+ ROUND 10.17 1.05
OVERALL 10.90 1.12

 

Using the same format, the graph below shows the profile of previous course winners’ strike rates by distance of race.

 

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I think this is quite insightful.  There appears to be an indication that previous course form is more valuable in predicting a winner over the straight track of 5 to 8 furlongs, than it is over the longer trip.

Now the volume of runners is quite small, particularly on the round course where two or more previous course wins are concerned but there is definitely enough to upgrade a previous course win on the straight track in comparison.

 

Pace on the straight track

Lesson number 1 in Geegeez.co.uk land is that pace is a game changer in punting life.  It’s certainly been a key component in my improvement in race reading and is just about the first thing I look at when trying to evaluate any equine contest.

We’ve already generated the supposition that front running pace bias may not be as important at Newcastle as it is on the other UK all-weather tracks due to the fairer nature of the straight; but do the numbers back that up?

 

Well, yes. The above chart is eye-opening. It illustrates the Actual/Expected performance by pace score for each of the all-weather tracks in the UK. The data covers all 3YO+ and 4YO+ handicaps and all races up to 8f in distance.

You can see the old adage of “pace wins the race” is pronounced across all of the tracks apart from Newcastle.

The blob annotated with “a” above shows the fate of hold up horses on the straight track at Newcastle. There is clear daylight between their performances when compared with late runners at every other track. In fact, horses that are held up actually fare well even in comparison to their front running rivals at the track. Certainly, trailblazers are not the be all and end all that they can be on some tracks, as the blob “b” illustrates.  Both front runners and hold up horses have an identical A/E performance of 0.99.

Lumping in all races from the minimum trip to the mile is potentially dangerous and clearly analysis by specific trip length may lead to slightly different and more solid conclusions.  However, in terms of proving a point that race profiles are different on the straight Newcastle track to the typical AW ones I think this does enough. The bottom line is don’t be put off by a horse stalking from the back of the pack at Gosforth Park.

 

Draw

Hopefully it’s reasonably understandable but evaluating full draw implications of a straight vs. round track is a tough ask for an article of this length given the variables in distance, race type, number of runners and the like.

That said, by way of a quick guide, below is a broad-brush summary of Newcastle draw performance.  It only considers handicap races of 10-12 runners.  It’s also important to note I’m using actual draw position (i.e. accounting for non-runners), not racecard draw number.

 

 

What does the above tell us? In truth, not a great deal! Maybe, just maybe, there is a hint of bias towards the wings of the track, especially for races over 5, 6 and 8 furlongs. Sometimes this makes sense as races develop against a rail and perhaps that is what is at play here.  But… for no obvious reason the 7f distance contradicts other distance data by suggesting there is a hint of middle track bias. In conclusion, it’s all pretty marginal and if you find the right horse, with the right profile, the draw at this course appears to be less relevant than most in terms of stall position.

 

Sires

It’s quite early to draw meaningful conclusions on stallions to follow at Newcastle but the below table shows some potentially emerging talent.

It’s derived from geegeez.co.uk’s Query Tool and illustrates all runners at 20/1 or less; and to qualify for the table an A/E of 1.25 is required, as well as a 10% ROI.

 

The volumes are generally too thin to draw firm conclusions and build bankable, watertight angles, especially as some of the performance will be driven by individual animals repeatedly winning. Even so, it’s a good list to keep in mind to help generate a shortlist when evaluating a race, particularly when form, or course form, is at a premium.

There is merit in just pulling out a couple to discuss briefly. The most successful couple of sires on the Newcastle all weather, in terms of winner numbers, are the renowned Sea The Stars and the progressive Lope De Vega.

 

Sea The Stars

Firstly, Sea The Stars… His progeny’s 15 wins are comprised of 13 individual horses.   John Gosden’s Champion Stayer, Stradivarius, is the most illustrious, having recorded his first success (on his third run) at Newcastle, over the straight mile. That is the very same course and distance that stablemate Enable made her debut on, incidentally. Clearly, Johnny G likes to blood a top class type on the tapeta here.

In fact, it’s not uncommon for horses of real quality to get an early spin on the Gosforth Park sands. The apparent level playing field of the track is a feature which attracts some of the elite stables to test their youngsters at a formative stage of their careers.

Reverting to Sea The Stars, below shows his progeny runs by race code.

 

Not bad all round but there is a clear distinction between AW and Turf data. If we zoom in a little further and evaluate the performance by the UK’s different AW venues, we get the following.

 

Here we see that Newcastle is driving the superb AW performance. Yes, Southwell, Chelmsford and Lingfield all show promise and we should take note of the offspring of Sea The Stars when they run at those venues. But Newcastle is where it’s at.

 

Lope De Vega

Lope De Vega was campaigned exclusively in France under the tutelage of Andre Fabre and doesn’t on the face of it have a particularly strong all-weather pedigree. However, much like Sea The Stars, his progeny has performed generally better on the artificial surfaces, in win strike rate and profit/loss terms at least.

Newcastle performance is strong (see the table below), but so too are Chelmsford and Wolverhampton. The surface at the midlands track is also Tapeta so that makes some sort of sense (albeit that it was polytrack until 2014). If you delve into sire records, quite frequently a good Newcastle record can be indicative of a better than average Wolves one and vice versa. The Chelmsford one is harder to explain, though it may be simply that Lope De Vega is a top class sire all round.

 

 

If we take that trio of courses and check P&L performance over different trips, we can see below that Lope De Vega offspring are less productive over 5 and 6 furlongs than other distances.

 

 

So, I think we have a potentially nice micro here: Lope De Vega progeny, 20/1 or shorter, 7-14f at Chelmsford, Wolves or Newcastle. 27.6% strike rate, 52% ROI to level stakes with strong A/E and IV numbers. The table below shows the precise numbers.

All Lope De Vega at 20/1 or less, 7-14f at Chelmsford/Wolves/Newcastle:

 

Trainers

A final word on the trainers who have taken to Newcastle’s newish surface, the above table shows those yards who have had 25+ runs, an A/E of 1.00 or above and an ROI of 10%+.

 

Before I talk about the table a couple of mentions for trainers not on the list. As stated earlier a number of elite trainers use Newcastle as a proving ground for their potential stable stars. John Gosden has had 75 runners (at 20/1 or less) including Enable, Without Parole and Stradivarius. Sadly though, and for obvious reasons, these are all quite well found in the market. Hugo Palmer is another who is inclined to send runners north as part of their education and development, but without profitable import for punters.

To those actually in the table, where there is a mix of northern track specialists and selective southern raiders. Sir Mark Prescott and William Haggas both clearly send animals up to the north-east that have a fair chance, and it is somewhat surprising to see these practitioners showing a level stakes profit. Moreover, as their strike rates at 31% and 38%, and related Impact Value numbers of 3.02 and 3.53, demonstrate, they’ll keep you in the game more readily than most.

The more local names of Menzies, Tate, Whitaker, Bethell and so on are all worth tagging too, although with only a handful of winners I wouldn’t necessarily generate micro angles to follow until there is a greater body of evidence.

Good luck, thanks for reading, and a happy new year to you all.

 - Jon Shenton