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Placepot Pointers – Friday 4th May

MUSSELBURGH – MAY 4

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £17.50 (6 favourites: No winners - 5 placed - 1 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 72.7% units went through – 7/2 – 9/4* - 13/2

Race 2: 95.3% of the remaining units when through – 2/1 & 4/6*

Race 3: 80.0% of the remaining units went through – 13/2 – 6/5* - 11/2

Race 4: 60.0% of the remaining units went through – 11/4 & 2/1*

Race 5: 15.3% of the remaining units went through – 6/1 & 14/1 (4/5)

Race 6: 81.8% of the units secured the dividend – 6/1 – 6/4* - 11/2

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Musselburgh: 

Leg 1 (2.10): 1 (Ahlan Bil Emarati), 5 (Josiebond) & 2 (Deep Intrigue)

Leg 2 (2.40): 2 (Rapid Applause), 7 (Lydiate Lady) & 3 (Longroom)

Leg 3 (3.10): 8 (Zoravan), 5 (Crazy Tornado) & 10 (Royal Connoisseur)

Leg 4 (3.40): 1 (Mosalim) & 2 (Tribal Warrior)

Leg 5 (4.10): 5 (Elite Icon), 1 (Four Kingdoms) & 8 (Ravenswood)

Leg 6 (4.40): 1 (Trading Point) & 10 (Al Ozzdi)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.10: AHLAN BIL EMARATI represents Kevin Ryan who has saddled six of his last nine runners to winning effect, whereby it is an unexpected fact to reveal in the dead of night that Kevin’s April foal is on the slide in the market.  The reverse is true (to a fashion) regarding JOSIEBOND with quite a bit of money lined up in the (realistic) positive queue for the Rebecca Bastiman raider at the time of writing.  DEEP INTRIGUE completes my trio against the remaining four contenders to start off the meeting.

Favourite factor: The opening event on the Musselburgh card is a new event.

 

2.40:  With eight of the ten course winners on the Placepot card assembled in this one event, you will pardon me for suggesting that this is a nightmare event in the making.  All three winners have been drawn on the low side, a stat which goes against Royal Brave who scored from trap four twelve months ago but has ‘13’ to overcome this time around.  Others are preferred accordingly, namely RAPID APPLAUSE (2), LYDIATE LADY (1) and LONGROOM (8).

Favourite factor: Two of the five market leaders (via just three renewals) have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include one (6/4) winner.

Record of the eight course winners in the field:

3/10—Royal Brave (3 x good to firm)

3/5—Longroom (2 x good to firm & good)

1/4—Landing Night (good to firm)

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1/8—Peal Acclaim (good to firm)

1/1—Suwaan (good to firm)

1/6—Lexington Place (good)

1/2—Pea Shooter (good)

1/1—Lady Cristal (good to firm)

 

3.10: Horses carrying 9-2 or less have secured 15 of the last 26 available Placepot positions, stats which include seven of the eleven winners. ZORAVAN and CRAZY TORNADO are two of the three Keith Dalgleish raiders in the contest and though a stable companion is the shortest priced representative, this pair offer better value from my viewpoint.  ROYAL CONNOISSEUR completes my trio in another trappy contest on the card.

Favourite factor: Seven of the eleven favourites have secured Placepot positions to date, with four market leaders having won their respective events at odds of 4/1-3/1-5/2-11/8.

 

3.40: Four of the seven horses saddled by William Haggas won yesterday, completing an 83/1 four-timer for the yard.  William has declared MOSALIM here with obvious claims, with connections having most to fear from TRIBAL WARRIOR, likely as not.  Money for the James Tate’s New Approach colt would add interest to proceedings, given that the vast majority of his winners are well backed.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 6/5 favourite claimed a Placepot position by finishing second, flanked by horses which were sent off at 13/2 & 11/2.

 

4.10: The ground might go against Richard Fahey’s dual course winner Royal Cosmic and given the odds on offer, the likes of ELITE ICON, FOUR KINGDOMS and RAVENSWOOD make more appeal.  There is some dross to wade through (like yesterday) again and once more, the race planners have seemingly lost the plot.  Given the depth of meetings on 2000 Guineas day tomorrow, why couldn’t Goodwood have shifted their meeting forward by 24 hours?   I appreciate that no racecourse wants to ‘demote’ a Saturday meeting but let’s be fair, the ‘Glorious’ week attracts more racegoers than 50% of the venues across the land manage during an entire year, whereby there is no excuse for the lack of sensible planning.

Favourite factor: The fifth race on the Musselburgh programme is another new contest.

Record of the two course winners in the penultimate leg of our favourite wager:

2/2—Royal Cosmic (good to soft & soft)

1/8—Falcon’s Fire (good)

 

4.40: TRADING POINT looks just about bombproof from a Placepot perspective despite a ‘stopping’ weight.  Whether the concession of the thick end of two stones to AL OZZDI can be undertaken to winning effect is another matter entirely.

Favourite factor: Yet another new race to assess.

 

Record of the three course winners in the 7th (non Placepot) race at 5.15:

1/3—Haymarket (good to firm)

1/8—Adventureman (good)

1/5—Ghostly Arc (good to firm)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

 

Stat of the Day, 4th May 2018

Thursday's Runner was...

4.00 Lingfield : Insurgence @ 3/1 BOG 2nd at 2/1 (Held up towards rear, ridden 2f out, headway over 1f out, ran on, led towards finish, headed close home by a flying finisher)

Next up is Friday's...

7.30 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Robero @ 13/2 BOG

A 10-runner, Class 3,  7f A/W Handicap (3yo+) on tapeta worth £9704 to the winner...

Why?

It wouldn't be unreasonable to suggest that this 6 yr old gelding might have needed the run when last seen being well beaten at Haydock six days ago. The mitigating circumstances were a 168 day absence, unsuitably soft ground and racing at a higher class than today. He's now back down at Class 3 and back on the All-Weather for the first time in ten months racing on a track where he's 1 from 2, having previously won over course and distance.

Since the start of 2013, his trainer Mick Easterby is 30 from 159 (18.9% SR) for 92.5pts (+58.2% ROI) with his handicappers turned back out just 4 to 7 days after their last run, from which...

  • males are 28/135 (20.7%) for 100.8pts (+74.7%)
  • at odds of 9/4 to 12/1 : 27/105 (25.7%) for 89.5pts (+85.3%)
  • over trips shorter than a mile : 16/98 (16.3%) for 74.5pts (+76%)
  • those unplaced LTO : 17/92 (18.5%) for 93.4pts (+101.5%)
  • on the A/W : 12/44 (27.3%) for 25.2pts (+57.3%)
  • 6 yr olds are 8/31 (25.8%) for 12.3pts (+39.6%)
  • those ridden by a 5lb claimer : 4/19 (21.1%) for 19.1pts (+100.8%)
  • at Class 3 : 4/18 (22.2%) for 20.6pts (+114.7%)
  • and on tapeta : 4/18 (22.2%) for 11pts (+61.3%)

In addition to the above, Mr Easterby's runners are 19 from 112 (17% SR) for 56.1pts (+50.1% ROI) profit in handicaps on the A/W here at Newcastle, with those failing to make the frame last time out stepping up to win 12 of 76 (15.8%) for 64.9pts (+85.4%), whilst today's jockey Harrison Shaw has ridden 24 of those handicappers, winning 5 times (20.8% SR) for profits of 29.7pts at an attractive ROI of some 123.6%...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Robero @ 13/2 BOG which was available from Betbright & Hills at 5.30pm on Thursday.To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 7.30 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Tuesday 1st May

NOTTINGHAM – MAY 1 

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £39.90 (6 favourites: 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 60.7% units went through – 7/2 – 20/1 – 5/2*

Race 2: 32.5% of the remaining units when through – 7/2 – 4/1 – 25/1 (3/1)

Race 3: 68.3% of the remaining units went through – 11/4* - 8/1 – 6/1

Race 4: 38.8% of the remaining units went through – 4/1 & 3/1 (5/4)

Race 5: 59.6% of the remaining units went through – 6/1 – 3/1* - 7/2

Race 6: 58.6% of the units secured the dividend – 2/1* & 7/1

 

Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Nottingham: 

Leg 1 (2.00): 3 (Red Handed), 5 (Spell) & 2 (Delft Dancer)

Leg 2 (2.30): 1 (Mushtaq) & 5 (Giovanni)

Leg 3 (3.00): 3 (Cosmopoltan Queen) & 6 (Lady Alavesa)

Leg 4 (3.35): 2 (Seduce Me), 7 (Flying Pandora) & 4 (Mama Africa)

Leg 5 (4.05): 7 (Double Reflection), 1 (Amazing Michelle) & 5 (Ann Without An E)

Leg 6 (4.35): 1 (Slunovrat) & 3 (Thistimenextyear)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.00: Mick Channon can do little wrong at present having saddled five of his last eight runners to winning effect and having trained last year’s favourite for the contest with a horse which was making its third appearance (see details below), Mick goes to war with his Sixties Icon newcomer RED HANDED this time around.  Richard Hannon has won with two of his eight juvenile runners this season, though his entry SPELL is still in a race at Ascot on Wednesday as I pen this column.  Of the experienced runners in the field, DELFT DANCER is preferred to Chitra.

Favourite factor: Last year’s (Mick Channon trained) favourite snared a Placepot position via a bronze medal effort.  Mick’s raider (Aquadabra) went on the win one of its eleven subsequent races at the time of writing.

 

2.30: Although MUSHTAQ is odds on right across the board with the layers in the dead of night, 11/8+ is freely available on the exchanges which dilutes enthusiasm to a fashion. Richard Hannon’s Zoffany gelding scored impressively over six furlongs on (all weather) seasonal debut at just the second time of asking and the breeding suggests that this hike up to a mile should pose few (if any) problems.  There is no move for Eledeed at the time of writing, whereby I feel duty bound to offer up GIOVANNI as the main threat to the selection whose trainer is currently enjoying a 29% strike rate via his last seven winners.

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Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Nottingham card.

 

3.00: There are two runners that fit the ‘bet to nothing’ profile here from an each way angle, namely COSMOPOLITAN QUEEN and LADY ALAVESA. The pair is listed in order of preference, despite the fact that Gay Kelleway’s latter named raider has already had a (decent) run this season under her belt.  COSMOPOLITAN QUEEN has more potential from my viewpoint and it will interesting to see if David Elsworth has his Dubawi filly 95% fit, which might be all that is required to land the prize in this grade/company.  The reserve nomination is awarded to Last Enchantment, though Eve Johnson Houghton’s raider fails to offer value for money at around the 9/4 mark this morning according to the gospel of yours truly.

Favourite factor: This is another new event on the programme.

 

3.35: Karl Burke’s runners have been a little in and out thus far since the turf season opened (in spluttered fashion) but that said, four of his last five runners have reached the frame (exact science) at 14/1, 12/1, 8/1 & 22/5 which suggests that SEDUCE ME can give investors a decent run for their collective monies, especially as Karl’s Dutch Art filly has attracted support overnight.  Connections might have most to fear from the likes of FLYING PANDORA and MAMA AFRICA at the business end of proceedings.

Favourite factor: Yet another new race to assess on the card.

 

4.05: The general and exchange markets are giving no clues away in this trappy looking contest at the time of writing and my only advice is to possibly keep DOUBLE REFLECTION, AMAZING MICHELLE and ANN WITHOUT AN E on the right side of the mix as you plan today’s wagers, especially from a Placepot perspective.  The latter named pair could outrun their double figure prices (both hail from in form yards with half decent soft ground form in the past), whilst DOUBLE REFLECTION is another Karl Burke runner on the card to consider, especially if Seduce Me has run well in the previous race.  Course winner APACHE BLAZE is another to consider whilst waiting for the kettle to boil this morning.

Favourite factor: All three favourites have finished in the frame (including a 4/9 chance) without winning their respective events.

Record of course winners in the fifth event:

1/1—Apache Blaze (good to soft)

 

4.35: Nine of the fourteen horses to have secured toteplacepot positions carried a minimum burden of nine stones, as did all five (16/1-3/1-11/4-2/1-5/4) winners of the contest thus far.  This hardly represents an extended trend I know though with little else to work with, my short listed duo against the other three runners hail from the top of the handicap, namely SLUNOVRAT and THISTIMENEXTYEAR.

Favourite factor:  Three of the five favourites claimed toteplacepot positions thus far, stats which include three winners at 3/1, 2/1 and 5/4.

Record of course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/4—Slunovrat (good)

 

Record of course winners in the seventh (non Placepot) race on the card at 5.05:

1/1—Samovar (good to soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Thursday 19th April

NEWMARKET – APRIL 19 

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £33.80 (8 favourites – 4 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 59.4% units went through – 11/4* - 13/2 – 8/1

Race 2: 39.9% of the remaining units when through – 5/1 & 11/4** (11/4**)

Race 3: 77.4% of the remaining units went through – Evens* & 9/1

Race 4: 34.9% of the remaining units went through – 8/1 & 11/4 (9/4)

Race 5: 56.7% of the remaining units went through – 11/4** - 9/2 – 11/4**

Race 6: 59.4% of the units secured the dividend – 11/4* - 12/1 – 25/1

 

Thurday's Placepot permutation at Newmarket: 

Leg 1 (1.50): 7 (Captain Jameson), 5 (Consequences) & 6 (Dragons Tail)

Leg 2 (2.25): 8 (Karaginsky), 10 (Military Band) & 13 (Monoxide)

Leg 3 (3.00): 4 (Le Brivido) & 9 (Spirit Of Valour)

Leg 4 (3.35): 3 (Masar) & 4 (Roaring Lion)

Leg 5 (4.10): 13 (Sheika Reika), 4 (Improve) & 10 (Playfull Spirit)

Leg 6 (4.45): 2 (Nordic Lights), 3 (Argentello) & 5 (Bedouin’s Story)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

1.50: I offered a big shout for last year’s 11/4 winner and am quietly confident that CAPTAIN JAMESON can reward each way investors this time around.  Trainer John Quinn did us a 12/1 favour at the corresponding fixture last year and though softer ground would have offered an added bonus, Jason Hart’s mount is expected to give us a good run for our collective monies, albeit stakes are lowered (to a fashion) because of his ‘recent’ gelding operation.  Not all the boys react as positively as some having had the ‘snip’!  Course and distance winner CONSEQUENCES is named as the main threat alongside DRAGONS TAIL who represents Tom Dascombe’s in-form yard.  For the record, eight winners during the last decade carried a maximum burden of 8-13 and both CAPTAIN JAMESON and DRAGONS TAIL qualify via the recent weight trend.

Favourite factor: Eight of the twelve favourites have secured Placepot positions during the eleven years, statistics which include six winners.

Record of the course winner in the opening race:

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1/1—Consequences (good to firm)

 

2.25: Godolphin has secured three of the last four renewals (and four of the last seven) of the ‘Wood Ditton’ and the two horses sporting the famous blue colours are both expected to go close here, namely KARAGINSKY and MILITARY BAND.  The pair is listed in marginal order of preference with both Charlie Appleby and Saeed Bin Suroor having their horses in fine form at this moment in time.  That said, Charlie seemingly always has his runners in grand fettle – period!  Money for MONOXIDE would add interest to proceedings, especially as no trainer has saddled more winners that Martyn Meade on this final day of the Craven meeting during the last five years.  Martyn’s Epsom Derby entry might be put through his paces with more urgency than some I’ll wager, offering potential each way investors an interest at around the 16/1 mark this morning.

Favourite factor: 14 of the 24 favourites have secured Placepot positions (seven winners) during the 20 year study period.

 

3.00: Four-year-olds have won nine renewals during the last twenty years, whilst claiming 23 of the 58 available Placepot positions during the study period. The pair which dominated last year’s Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot could fill the forecast positions again here I guess, with LE BRIVIDO and SPIRIT OF VALOUR being the horses in question.  Aidan O’Brien saddled a welcome winner at Dundalk last night following nineteen consecutive losers, though I am not speaking ‘after the event’ you understand as I warned readers of Aidan’s form before racing commenced on Tuesday.  It’s not that Aidan’s runners are running deplorably you understand, they are simply not picking up to go on and win their races having been given every chance by their respective pilots.  For that reason, I’m adding SPIRIT OF VALOUR in the Placepot mix, albeit I expect Aidan’s War front colt to be held by the French representative again.  MAGICAL MEMORY won this race back in 2016 and it might be a tad too soon to write of his chance of winning another Group race just yet, whilst the second time of asking this season might not be a bad time to catch the six-year-old, especially with the Charlie Hills runners going well just now.  DREAM OF DREAMS would have entered the equation had the ground been as soft as it was earlier in the week.

Favourite factor: Four market leaders have prevailed (within the last thirteen years), whilst eleven of the twenty favourites have reached the frame during the (longer) study period.

Record of the course winners in the third race on the card:

2/2—Brando (good to firm & good to soft)

1/3—Magical Memory (good to soft)

 

3.35: Few trainers ‘tilt at windmills’ better than Peter Chapple-Hyam and when I offer that remark, I’m talking about 50/1 chances as well as what some media types class as outsider simply because a horse wins in double figures!  That said, even Peter might be overstepping the mark with his course and distance winner Just Brilliant here, though I can rarely (if ever) totally write of his runners at outrageous prices.  This does look to be a tough ask however, with ROARING LION and (particularly) MASAR having been declared to run.  The problem we ‘Potters’ have when looking at trial races like this is just how much is a horse going to be ‘pushed’ out if its winning chance has gone?  I’m aware that this is a comment which could be made for any fancied horse though in the case of potential ‘champions’ in the making, the scenario is extended without a shadow of a doubt.  That said, MASAR is likely to be ridden all the way to the jamstick given that connections have little to lose by taking on the hot favourite ROARING LION.  In case you thought that John Gosden’s market leader was ‘home and hosed’ before going into the stalls, I feel obligated to suggest that this is his first outing on what might turn out to be good ground by the time that flag fall arrives this afternoon.  All three victories have been recorded on ‘good to soft’, whilst his all-weather victory was on the slow side of standard at Kempton.  Food for thought?

Favourite factor: 12 of the 20 market leaders have snared Placepot positions during the study period, statistics which include eight winners.

Record of the course winners in the Craven Stakes:

1/1—Just Brilliant (good)

1/1—Roaring Lion (good to soft)

 

4.10: The dogs are barking harmoniously regarding the chance of SHEIKHA REIKA who represents Roger Varian who won with one of his four runners on the heath yesterday afternoon.  Money for the William Haggas newcomer IMPROVE would add much required interest to proceedings, whilst my trio against the remaining eleven contenders is completed by PLAYFULL SPIRIT.

Favourite factor: Eleven favourites during the last twelve years have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include four successful market leaders from a win perspective.

 

4.45: I guess it’s easy to suggest (this side of midnight) that the lads and lasses in the trade press office have a got a price seriously wrong in terms of the betting guide, though the 12/1 quoted for Saaed Bin Suroor’s BEDOUIN’S STORY was right out of the top draw of JK Rowling’s fictional bedtime reading material.  We might be lucky to secure half of those odds I’ll wager, albeit NORDIC LIGHTS and ARGENTELLO might still take the beating from a win perspective.

Favourite factor: The Placepot finale is a new ‘novice’ event with which to close out our favourite wager.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

Stat of the Day, 19th April 2018

Wednesday's Runner was...

9.15 Kempton : Ubla @ 10/3 BOG non-runner (Result / report to follow later)

We now continue with Thursday's...

9.15 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Lord Murphy @ 4/1 BOG

A 14-runner, Class 6,  7f A/W Classified Stakes (3yo+) on tapeta worth £3105 to the winner...

Why?

A fairly simple approach today, but one I still expect to bear fruit!

A 5 yr old gelding who was a winner on tapeta in this grade over this trip last time out 10 days ago and is by Holy Roman Emperor, whose 3-5 yr olds are 7/35 (20% SR) for 56.86pts (+162.5% ROI) in Class 6, 7f contests on tapeta since the start of 2015.

There you go, I told you it was a simple approach today.

I'm only joking, of course! There is a bit more!

He's trained by Daniel Mark Loughnane, who since 2009 is 16/38 (42.1% SR) for 48.56pts (+127.8% ROI) profit with horses running at the same class and trip as an LTO win in the previous 6 to 20 days. And from those 38 quickly turned back out runners...

  • those running on the A/W are 14/30 (46.7%) for 46.6pts (+155.3%)
  • at Class 6 : 14/28 (50%) for 44.77pts (+159.9%)
  • on Tapeta : 5/15 (33.3%) for 22.54pts (+150.3%)
  • 5 yr olds are 4/9 (44.4%) for 9.7pts (+107.7%)
  • and at a 7f trip : 2/4 (50%) for 21.54pts (+538.5%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Lord Murphy @ 4/1 BOG which was available from Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.25pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 9.15 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 14th April

AINTREE – APRIL 14

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £145.20 (6 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions offered in brackets:

Race 1: 54.7% units went through – 11/1- 5/1- 16/1 – 4/1*

Race 2: 56.6% of the remaining units when through – 3/1* - 14/1 – 7/2

Race 3: 22.1% of the remaining units went through – 4/1 & 6/1 (6/5)

Race 4: 41.6% of the remaining units went through – 10/1 – 16/1 – 5/1 – 9/2*

Race 5: 69.7% of the remaining units went through – 9/4* - 5/1 – 9/1

Race 6: 25.3% of the units secured the dividend – 14/1 – 16/1 – 25/1 – 8/1*

*It’s worth noting that despite three of the top ten horses in the betting (including the favourite) finished in the frame in a 40 strong field, only a quarter of the live Placepot units going into the Grand National survived.

*I secured a healthy return of £116.64 on Friday (80p of the £145.80 dividend) - offering confidence as we go into one of the biggest days on the racing calendar.

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Aintree: 

Leg 1 (1.45): 3 (Dream Berry), 1 (Louis’ Vac Pounch) & 10 (Red Indian)

Leg 2 (2.25): 2 (On The Blind Side), 9 (Kildisart) & 6 (Chosen Path)

Leg 3 (3.00): 4 (Petit Mouchoir) & 2 (Diego Du Charmil)

Leg 4 (3.40): 7 (Thomas Patrick), 15 (Bells Of Ailsworth) & 4 (Rocklander)

Leg 5 (4.20): 6 (Sam Spinner) & 11 (Wholestone)

Leg 6 (5.15): 18 (Seeyouatmidnight), 37 (Milansbar), 13 (Tiger Roll) & 2 (Blaklion)

Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes

 

1.45: Six-year-olds have won five of the last eleven renewals, whilst six of the last seven eight gold medallists have been burdened with a minimum weight of eleven stones. Jonjo O'Neill has saddled three winners during the last twelve years and putting the stats and facts together produces a short list of DREAM BERRY, LOUIS’ PAC and RED INDIAN.  Jonjo O’Neill (DREAM BERRY) deserves a change of luck, the trainer having fancied Minella Rocco strongly before the rains came.  Jonjo took the horse out of the big race yesterday and few people would deny the trainer a winner on the big day.

Favourite factor: Eight of the fifteen favourites during the last twelve years have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include three successful market leaders and one co favourite.

Record of the three course winners in the opening event:

1/2—Louis’ Vac Pouch (soft)

1/1—Knight Of Noir (good)

1/3—Sykes (good)

 

2.25: Five-year-olds have won six of the last eight renewals, though only two big outsiders have been declared, one of which is a doubtful starter, with Bedrock having run on Friday.  That leaves 25/1 chance CHOSEN PATH as the each way call, though course winner ON THE BLIND SIDE might take the beating.  Another each way option is KILDISART who represents Ben Pauling, looking a tad overpriced at the time of writing at around the 16/1 mark from my viewpoint.

Favourite factor: Eight clear market leaders and one joint favourite have prevailed during the last nineteen years, whilst fourteen of the nineteen jollies have secured Placepot positions. Going back further in time, 17/40 renewals to date have been won by favourites (42.5% strike rate).

Record of the course winner in the second race:

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1/1—On The Blind Side (good)

 

3.00: Six-year-old's have secured six of the last seven renewals in which they were represented, the relevant raiders in 2015 only being conspicuous by their absence. Upwards and onward in positive mode by confirming that two vintage representative take their chance, namely DIEGO DU CHARMIL and SHANTOU ROCK, the pair being listed in marginal order of preference.  That said, PETIT MOUCHOIR should take plenty of beating, though connections would have been disappointed in the running of Balko Des Flos on Friday.  Connections would not want much more rain for the favourite I’ll wager.

Favourite factor: Six clear favourites and one joint market leader have won since 1999, whilst 13 of the 19 jollies have claimed Placepot positions. The biggest priced winner during the previous 13 years was returned at 6/1 before the 28/1 gold medallist prevailed in 2013.

 

3.40: 15 of the last 16 winners carried weights of 11-3 or less, whilst eight-year-old's have won seven of the last seventeen contests.   All three eight-year-olds fit the weight trend but trainers have failed to do their homework given just a trio of declarations. BELLS OF AILSWORTH is the pick from my viewpoint, with the Tim Vaughan raider have secured a medal of each colour from just four starts on soft ground.  More logical winners include a worthy favourite in THOMAS PATRICK from the red hot Tom Lacey yard and (arguably) ROCKLANDER.

Favourite factor: 11 of the 22 favourites have finished in the frame during the last 18 years, statistics which include four winners.

Record of the course winners in the fourth event on the card:

1/2—On Tour (soft)

 

4.20: The potential market leaders both cope with this type of ground whereby I will take the quick (hopefully) safe route towards the main event/finale by naming SAM SPINNER and WHOLESTONE against their nine rivals, especially given the favourable trend for fancied horses for several years now.  The ground is the worry for The Worlds End, whilst the jury must surely still be out regarding the participation of L’Ami Serge who won here on Thursday.

Favourite factor: 13 favourites have won during the last 23 years (56.5% strike rate, whilst market leaders have secured Placepot position in each of the last twelve years.

Record of the two course winners in the fifth race:

1/2—L’Ami Serge (soft)

1/1—The Worlds End (good)

 

5.15: Let’s get some of the Grand National facts and figures out of the way to start with.  Nine and ten-year-olds have shared 14 of the last 22 renewals, though it's worth noting that eleven-year-olds come to the party having won four of the last seven contests.  Nine-year-olds have won ten of the last 35 contests (28.6% strike rate). Only five favourites have won via the last 34 renewals. Irish trainers have won six of the last 19 contests.  Only three grey horses have won the big race, the 2012 winner being the first for fifty one years.  26 female jockeys have participated in the big race with the 2012 third placed effort of Katie Walsh aboard Seabass the pick of the pilots to date:  The record of horses ridden by female jockeys:  one placed--nine unplaced--sixteen failed to complete the course though to be entirely fair, eleven of those runners started at odds ranging between 100/1 and 500/1.  In contrast to previous results down the years, five of the last nine winners have carried a minimum burden of eleven stones.  This was my selection last year; As a winner of seven of his last nineteen races, One For Arthur (winner at 14/1) gets in off a low weight of 10-10 which defies belief in all honesty. Whatever the weather does between now and flag fall will not affect the selection, given that One For Arthur has won all on types of ground during an impressive career. The Grand National is famous for turning relatively ‘unknown’ jockeys into household names and Derek Fox can be the latest of them.  The following runners should give us a good run for our collective monies this time around.  For a horse carrying 10-11, SEEYOUATMIDNIGHT has plenty of class and his each way chance is there for all to see on the best of his form.  Going back to the ‘Dipper’ steeplechase on New Year’s Day in 2016, BLAKLION was beaten fair and square by my main selection when conceding three pounds at Newcastle.  BLAKLION is asked to give an additional nine pounds on this occasion and using that horse as a decent benchmark following last year’s fine effort, SEEYOUATMIDNIGHT has to be the call. This race has catapulted so many jockeys into the big time down the years and it could be the turn of Bryony Frost this time around aboard MILANSBAR, who can take advantage of conditions with moisture in the ground to run well at around the 25/1 mark. It’s worth noting that Milansbar has finished in the first three in 12/18 assignments on soft/heavy ground, statistics which include five victories.  TIGER ROLL was a fine winner at the Cheltenham Festival last month over the specialist cross country fences, whereby this circuit could (again) bring out the best of the Gordon Elliot raider who looks set to reach the frame if enjoying a trouble free passage.  The worry is that the soft/heavy ground might wear the little warrior down at the business end of proceedings.  The Nigel Twiston-Davies raider BLAKLION ran well for us to finish fourth last year when listed as my third choice in the race.  The experience of jumping these fences over this distance of ground is counteracted by the fact that the horse is asked to carry an additional eight pounds twelve months on.  I fully expect Blaklion to reward each way investors, probably finding one or two too good for him from a win perspective.  The reserve option on the eve of the big race is VIEUX LION ROUGE who has won five of his six races on heavy ground.  On the flip side of the coin, this is his third start in the race having failed to finish in the frame to date, albeit those renewals were contested on faster ground.

Favourite factor: Two joint market leaders and one clear favourite have won the Grand National during the last thirteen years which is a great record in such a competitive event, bucking previous market leader trends. 11 of the 24 favourites during the last 15 years have secured Placepot positions.

Record of the three course winners in the Grand National:

1/4—Blaklion (heavy)

1/4—Vieux Lion Touge (good to soft)

1/4—Gas Line Boy (heavy)

 

Record of the course winner in the 7th (non Placepot) race at 6.15:

1/1—Chesterfield (good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Friday 30th March

LINGFIELD – MARCH 30

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £250.40 (7 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 3 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

 

Race 1: 33.4% units went through – 33/1, 10/3* & 12/1

Race 2: 26.6% of the remaining units when through – 7/1, 7/1 & 16/1 (4/1)

Race 3: 92.1% of the remaining units went through – 6/1, Evens* & 11/2

Race 4: 35.0% of the remaining units went through – 4/1**, 8/1 & 14/1 (4/1**)

Race 5: 17.0% of the remaining units went through – 8/1, 14/1 & 12/1 (6/5)

Race 6: 59.6% of the units secured the dividend – 11/8*, 16/1 & 15/2

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Lingfield: 

Leg 1 (1.30): 14 (Silent Echo), 10 (Take The Helm), 11 (Swift Approval) & 4 (Squats)

Leg 2 (2.00): 5 (Red Verdon) & 2 (Funny Kid)

Leg 3 (2.30): 3 (Diagnostic) & 13 (Zest)

Leg 4 (3.05): 8 (Kachy), 4 (Gifted Master) & 3 (Double Up)

Leg 5 (3.40): 3 (Corinthia Knight), 4 (Count Otto) & 5 (Desert Doctor)

Leg 6 (4.10): 10 (Second Thought) & 5 (Goring)

Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes

 

1.30: Hopefully you are playing up yesterday ‘winnings’ given that four units of my 10p Placepot permutation obliged which gave us a potential return of £505.48 via the full £1,263.70 dividend at Wetherby.  Upwards and onward in positive mode accordingly by suggesting that SILENT ECHO could give us a good start to the meeting given his 50% strike rate at the course to date.  Confidence is a massive part of producing a profit for investors and after nominating a 25/1 winner yesterday via my permutation, I have no hesitation in offering three outsiders in this opening event to carry our Placepot cash, namely TAKE THE HELM, SWIFT APPROVAL and SQUATS.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 10/3 favourite had to give best to a 33/1 chance close home when securing a Placepot position.

Details of the seven course winners in the opening event:

2/2—Wahash

2/4—Early Morning

1/3—Reckless Endeavour

1/3—Eljaddaaf

2/4—Take The Helm

1/2—Swift Approval

1/2—Silent Echo

 

2.00: RED VERDON will surely take some kicking out of the frame though as regular readers are aware, staying races on the level do not bring out the best in yours truly.  Racehorses are fundamentally born for speed whereby when pace drops away, so do predictable results from my viewpoint.  I will add the French raider FUNNY KID into the mix accordingly.

Favourite factor: The three previous favourites had secured two gold medals and one of the silver variety when claiming Placepot positions, before last year’s 4/1 market leader finished out with the washing.

Details of the two course winners in the second race:

1/1—Red Verdon

3/7--Watersmeet

 

2.30: Four-year-olds have won three of the four contests to date whilst claiming seven of the twelve available Placepot positions from around 60% of the total number of runners who have contested the event thus far.  The pick of the four vintage representatives on this occasion appears to be DIAGNOSTIC over Soul Silver from my viewpoint.  That said, Roger Charlton’s five-year-old raider ZEST boasts a fine track record here at Lingfield, though an additional furlong would have helped his cause.  I guess this race will be run at a furious pace however, whereby he will be closing in on the pace setters as jockeys raise their whips at the business end of proceedings.

Favourite factor: Three of the five favourites have claimed Placepot positions without winning their respective events via four renewals.

Details of the seven course winners in the third contest on the card:

1/15—Bint Dandy

3/6—Carolinae

3/8—Make Music

1/2—Pattie

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1/2—Rose Berry

1/6—Summer Icon

2/3--Zest

 

3.05: DOUBLE UP looks a shade too big at 22/1 in a place this morning, especially with stable companion Atletico having been taken out overnight.  That said, KACHY and GIFTED MASTER are more obvious winners from a win perspective.  The first named Tom Dascombe raider is unbeaten (4/4) when contesting races away from straight courses, whereby he is marginally preferred to Hugo Palmer’s five-year-old raider.

Favourite factor: Three of the five marker leaders have claimed Placepot positions to date via four renewals, stats which include two (65/ & 4/1**) winners.

Details of the six course winners in the field:

1/3—Double Up

1/1—Gifted Master

4/9—Gracious John

1/3—Gulliver

2/2—Kachy

2/4—Kimberlla

 

3.40: COUNT OTTO contests a much warmer race here than has been the case of late, though his unbeaten course record (2/2) holds him in good stead from an each way perspective at around the 14/1 mark.  DESERT DOCTOR is another with win and place claims at a half decent price, though CORINITHIA KNIGHT has an impressive official mark of 105 which is far and away the best indicator of the potential winner of the race.

Favourite factor: The inaugural 11/8 favourite duly obliged twelve months ago.

Details of the four course winners in the penultimate Placepot race on the Good Friday programme:

1/1—Corinthian Knight

2/2—Count Otto

1/1—Desert Doctor

1/1—Rock On Baileys

 

4.10:  This is the race which helped to produce a half decent Placepot dividend twelve months ago when the 6/5 favourite finished out of the money with horses filling the frame at 8/1, 14/1 & 12/1.  As you can detect above, only 17% of the units which were live going into what was the fifth race on the card last year survived to go through to the Placepot finale.  This time around however, SECOND THOUGHT could score on the this high profile card for the second successive year, with connections probably having most to fear from GORING who represents Eve Johnson Houghton who recorded fabulous figures last term and a victory here would give the popular trainer a wonderful boost going into the turf season.

Favourite factor: The four market leaders to date have secured two of the ‘lesser medals’ thus far as we still await the first successful favourite.

Details of the seven course winners in the Placepot finale:

2/2—Arcanada

2/3—Captain Joy

4/11—Chevalier

4/5—Goring

1/6—Mr Scaramanda

2/2—Second Thought

1/3—Spare Parts

 

Details of the six course winners in the non Placepot event at 4.40:

1/3—Abe Lincoln

4/12—Battalion

2/5—Master The World

1/5—Pactolus

6/11—Petite Jack

1/4--Utmost

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Wednesday 28th March

WINCANTON – MARCH 28

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £13,527.30 (7 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 4 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions offered in brackets:

 

Race 1: 69.8% units went through – 10/1, 4/1 & 11/4*

Race 2: 35.6% of the remaining units when through – 5/2** & 33/1 (5/2**)

Race 3: 78.6% of the remaining units went through – 6/1 & 8/15*

Race 4: 1.5% of the remaining units went through – 9/1 (Win only – 4/5* unplaced)

Race 5: 28.0% of the remaining units went through – 5/1 & 6/1 (10/3*)

Race 6: 4.5% of the units secured the dividend – 16/1 & 33/1 (4/6*)

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Wincanton: 

Leg 1 (2.00): 1 (Captain Cattistock) & 3 (Darcy Ward)

Leg 2 (2.30): 2 (Innisfree Lad), 5 (Lex Talionis) & 8 (Daytime Ahead)

Leg 3 (3.05): 6 (Hope’s Wishes), 3 (Rouergate) & 5 (She’s Gina)

Leg 4 (3.40): 6 (City Supreme) & 4 (Somchine)

Leg 5 (4.15): 4 (Sonoftheking), 1 (Achille) & 2 (Blackmill)

Leg 6 (4.45): 1 (Unioniste) & 2 (Carraig Mor)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

*Apologies for the late arrival of the scheduled 7.00 service on Platform 1 this morning - several family members misbehaving on the line just outside Bristol...

 

2.00: This is how I started last year’s corresponding analysis’; “The following statement could hardly be classed as ‘rocket science’ but fellow ‘Potters’ will hopefully appreciate what is meant when stating that the Wincanton dividend could just as easily pay five pounds today as £5k.  The ‘make up’ of the races suggest that a small dividend is the call though such is the fragility of the form of the horses on offer at the track today that literally anything could happen”.  If you look above, you will determine that there was a huge dividend declared but the amazing point to consider for all people considering playing the Placepot on a regular basis, is that at the halfway stage, the Placepot was only paying £3.73 before developing into £13,537.30 three races later!  The other point to consider today is the ground as rain is still raining here in Bristol which is not too far north of Wincanton.  The wet stuff is on the radar to hit Wincanton from the time of writing until lunchtime.  CAPTAIN CATTISTOCK will have few (if any) problems with the conditions whereby his is the first name on the team sheet ahead of DARCY WARD who won on his last start on soft going.  It’s worth noting that Nick Schofield rode Run To Milan the last day he won but the popular pilot partners Darcy Ward on this occasion.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 4/5 favourite was beaten in a win only contest behind the 9/1 winner of what was the fourth race on the card twelve months ago.

Record of the course winner in the opening event:

2/2—Captain Cattistock (soft & heavy)

 

2.30: INNISFREE LAD is the call on this ground, especially as the drop back in trip will mean that he will be staying on strongly when others of cried enough, the pick of which are nominated as LEX TALIONIS and another ‘mud merchant’ in DAYTIME AHEAD.

Favourite factor:  Favourites have won three of the last seven renewals though that said, the other four gold medallists during the period were returned at priced ranging between 11/2 and 10/1.

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Record of the course winners in the second race:

1/2—Stonemadforspeed (good)

2/4—Daytime Ahead (soft & heavy)

 

3.05: Heavy ground course winner HOPE’S WISHES has to be the each way call with the weather misbehaving (as usual) at the time of writing.  The fact that Venetia Williams ran 100/1 chance ROUERGATE at Cheltenham the other week is an indication that she should go well in this grade/company, whilst SHE’S GINA completes my trio against the other five contenders in what will hopefully remain a ‘dead eight’ contest.

Favourite factor: Last year’s 8/15 favourite was beaten but ran well enough to secure a Placepot position.

Record of the course winner in the field:

1/1—Hope’s Wishes (heavy)

 

3.40: CITY SUPREME and SOMECHINE appeal as the value for money calls in this short field event with both horses able to act under the prevailing conditions.  CITY SUPREME has been off for a while and patience could be rewarded connections now, whilst SOMCHINE is something of a course specialist having recorded two of his six victories here at Wincanton.  It’s also worth noting that the Seamus Mullins representative has finished ‘in the three’ in 60% of his assignments to date.  New readers might want to know that the term ‘short field’ relates to 5/6/7 runners races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way and Placepot perspectives.

Favourite factor: One of the two 5/2 joint favourites claimed a Placepot position by winning this event last year.

Record of the course winner in the fourth contest on the card:

2/6—Somchine (soft & heavy)

 

4.15: You might have to hurry to obtain the respective prices of 10/1 and 25/1 about SONOFTHEKING and ACHILLE this morning, as I anticipate both horses being backed down to around the 7/1 and 16/1 marks by the time that the shops open for business later this morning.  This pair offer value for money from my viewpoint, whilst adding BLACKMILL into the Placepot equation.  Colin Tizzard confuses things towards the top of the market by running two horses, though The Cider Maker or Cucklington fail to appeal at the prices on offer at the time of writing.

Favourite factor: Last year’s 10/3 favourite was unplaced in another short field contest on the card.

Record of the course winners in the field:

1/2—Sonoftheking (soft)

1/2—Invicta Lake (good)

2/7—Cucklington (2 x soft)

4/11—Goring One (2 x soft – good – good to firm)

1/9—General Girling (heavy)

 

4.45: Although Distracted is a heavy ground course winner, the ten-year-old should be comfortable brushed aside in the company of UNIONISTE and CARRAIG MOR, though choosing between this pair is a tough call.  The two horses are listed in order of preference only because of the heavy ground success by the first named Paul Nicholls raider, whilst pilot David Maxwell will be riding with plenty of confidence given that his last two mounts won.

Favourite factor: Last year’s 4/6 market leader finished behind horses which filled the frame at 16/1 & 33/1 which put the icing on the Placepot cake and no mistake!

Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/1—Unioniste (heavy)

1/1—Distracted (heavy)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Placepot Pointers – Tuesday 27th March

HEREFORD – MARCH 27

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £753.80 (6 favourites – No winners – 1 placed – 5 unplaced)

 

Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Hereford: 

Leg 1 (2.15): 7 (Salix) & 1 (Aardwolf)

Leg 2 (2.45): 1 (Rolling Dylan), 3 (Three Ways), 2 (Geordie Des Champs) & 5 (Jeu Du Mots)

Leg 3 (3.15): 1 (Jurby) & 2 (Westend Story)

Leg 4 (3.45): 4 (Easter In Paris), 1 (Hepburn) & 2 (Lady Robyn)

Leg 5 (4.15): 4 (Act Now) & 5 (Bridane Rebel)

Leg 6 (4.45): 3 (Jimmy Bell), 2 (Westerberry) & 5 (Pink Tara)

Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.15: The first factor to mention is the overnight rain down here in the west-country which should eradicate the word “good” from the description of the ground yesterday/evening.  Two winners of last year’s corresponding card return to defend their respective titles, though that’s just about all I care to remember from twelve months ago when just one favourite finished in the frame (exact science).  SALIX arguably has more potential than AARDWOLF having had just the one run over timber to date, and that in a warm juvenile event at Kempton on the second day of the Christmas meeting at the Sunbury circuit. Only sent off that day as a 2/1 chance on debut, Ben Pauling’s raider is expected to prove that the initial effort was wide of the mark in terms of his potential. It’s interesting to note that there has been a little money for ROMANOR overnight which would create interest if the support is maintained later this morning.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 9/4 market leader could only beat one horse home twelve months ago in a short field contest, with horses returned at 7/1 and 10/3 filling the frame.  New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses qualify from each way & Placepot perspectives.

 

2.45: Last year’s winner was returned at 33/1 and I would not put anyone off including JEU DU MOTS in their Placepot permutation this afternoon in a race which should not prove difficult to win.  Lizzy Kelly’s mount receives plenty of weight from the three rivals here, an ‘edge’ which is compounded by the pilot’s useful three pound claim.  Yes, ROLLING DYLAN, THREE WAYS and GEORDIE DES CHAMPS (listed in order of preference) should have enough in hand of the outsider of the party, but not enough to exclude the Nick Williams raider in this grade/company in a ‘win only’ event which could be run at a false pace.

Favourite factor: Last year’s 6/5 favourites was beaten 35 lengths when finishing third of just four finishers.

 

3.15: The last 26 horses saddled by Philip Hobbs have been beaten, the kind of ‘form’ that I have been talking about for some time now which gives yours truly no sense of pleasure at all.  Philip is one of the good guys in the sport and this type of representation is almost unheard of back at the ranch since Philip started training 30 years ago.  It will be Philip’s worst month of March in seventeen years if he does not saddle another winner before Easter Monday, though that is (seemingly) not putting people off backing his runner WESTEND STORY in this event.  According to the gospel of yours truly, the potential joker in the pack is JURBY as far as Philip and his team is concerned.

Favourite factor: The 13/8 market leader was no match for the pair of 5/2 second favourites that filled the forecast positions in another short field event on the card twelve months ago.

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3.45: EASTER IN PARIS returns to defend his crown and though there are more rivals in opposition on this occasion, Paddy Brennan’s mount is expected to be there or thereabouts at the business end of proceedings.  Certainly her Placepot chance is there for all to see, though the declarations of HEPBURN and LADY ROBYN (to a fashion) suggest that any win stakes should be kept on the low side.

Favourite factor: Last year’s 5/2 market leader was the only horse which failed to complete the course on a wretched afternoon for favourite backers twelve

months ago.

Record of the course winner in the fourth race:

1/1—Easter In Paris (good to soft)

 

4.15: Anthony Honeyball was unable to maintain the momentum of a wonderful run of results in mid-season which the likes of Henderson, Nicholls and other leading trainers would have been proud of at any time of the year.  Anthony’s number of runners have tailed off accordingly, though ACT NOW has been offered the green light in an attempt to follow up his victory in this contest twelve months ago.  RUBY YEATS will come back and win another race sooner rather than later I’ll wager, though perhaps the biggest threat to the selection this time around is BRIDANE REBEL who hails from another trainer who is enjoying a wonderful season; namely Jennie Candlish.

Favourite factor: Last year’s 10/11 runner up was the only favourite to finish in the Placepot frame, though that fact was of no interest to favourite investors on the day.

Record of the course winner in the fifth contest on the card:

1/1—Act Now (good to soft)

 

4.45: Ladbrokes were out on a limb earlier this morning with WESTERBERRY at 25/1 but I see that the ‘magic sign’ has cut the outsider, whilst others have also trimmed PINK TARA in the field.  I believe that both horses could give each way followers a run for their respective monies, though from a win perspective, I prefer the chance of JIMMY BELL.

Favourite factor: The final 3/1 favourite on last year’s card offered a lame attempt to get punters out of jail by finishing last of the seven contenders that completed the course.

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

1/5—Way Of The World (heavy)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Tuesday 20th March

WETHERBY – MARCH 20

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £55.00 (6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

 

Race 1: 84.4% units went through – 9/2, 85/40* & 5/2

Race 2: 62.0% of the remaining units when through – 4/9* (Win only)

Race 3: 41.1% of the remaining units went through – 5/1, 4/1* & 25/1

Race 4: 34.1% of the remaining units went through – 13/2, 12/1 & 13/2 (9/2)

Race 5: 38.6% of the remaining units went through – 5/2*, 28/1 & 10/1

Race 6: 46.7% of the units secured the dividend – 11/2, 4/1 & 8/1 (15/8)

 

Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Wetherby: 

Leg 1 (2.00): 2 (Saucysioux) & 1 (Little Bruce)

Leg 2 (2.30): 1 (Progress Drive) & 2 (Sainte Ladylime)

Leg 3 (3.05): 4 (Monfass), 1 (Quest For Life) & 2 (Final Choice)

Leg 4 (3.40): 3 (Eminent Poet), 2 (Issacstown Lad) & 6 (Dedigout)

Leg 5 (4.10): 2 (Newberry New), 8 (All My Own) & 7 (Doktor Glaz)

Leg 6 (4.45): 6 (Lastin Memories) & 4 (Instingtive)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.00: Richard Johnson (see stats at the foot of the column) travels ‘oop north’ for just two rides today, the first of which is SAUCYSIOUX who is turned out again just four days after a silver medal effort at Fakenham on Friday when most eyes were looking in a south westerly direction away from the ‘specialists track’ in Norfolk.  Olly Murphy appears to have found a good opportunity for his eight-year-old Tobougg mare to return to winning ways.  Dual course winner LITTLE BRUCE looks to be the obvious alternative call is you fancy the favourite to get turned over in the first event on the card.

Favourite factor: Three of the four favourites (via three renewals) have secured Placepot positions, stats which include two (11/10** & 7/4) winners.

Record of the course winner in the opening event:

2/5—Little Bruce (2 x good to soft)

 

2.30: I’m not about to blind you with science in this two runner contest as there is precious little to choose between PROGRESS DRIVE and SAINT LADYLIME any which way you look at the race.  As an example, I’ll offer 2018 stats for the two trainers, which confirms the statement.  Nicky Richards (Progress Drive) boasts stats of 9/55 this calendar year (16.3% strike rate) compared to Kim Bailey’s 16.4% ratio via figures of 12/73. Simply include both horses in your permutation and move on.

Favourite factor: Market leaders have won all three contests to date.

 

3.05: All three winners have carried 11-3 or more to date as have four of the nine horses which have finished in the frame (exact science), via 61% of the total number of runners.  MONFASS, QUEST FOR LIFE and FINAL CHOICE are duly elected (accordingly) to serve as Placepot representatives in the Yorkshire constituency today!

Favourite factor: Two of the three market leaders secured Placepot positions, stats which produced one (10/3) winner to date.

 

3.40: 8/1 about EMINENT POET looks too big a price at the time of writing and I expect this Venetia Williams raider to go close to secure the trainer’s sixth winner at the track (during the last five years) which she visits infrequently.  I guess that I should point out that the first of her two runners runs in the previous race on the card, namely Bonne Question.  Others to consider in this event include ISSACSTOWN LAD and DEDIGOUT who will offer better value for money than Warthog according to the gospel of yours truly.  Whilst on the subject of ‘gout’, don’t listen to old wives takes about port causing the problem though if you are a fellow sufferer, for goodness sake do not eat some of the foods which are supposedly good for us, including oily fish and offal (sardines/mackerel/liver etc); Big Mal, News At Seven, Bristol!

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Wetherby card.

Record of the course winner in the fourth race:

1/1—Tomngerry (heavy)

 

4.10: Two non-runners have already reared their ugly heads and another pair confined to barracks would take this event into dangerous win only waters.  In the anticipation of connections looking for relatively easy prize money however, NEWBERRY NEW, ALLMYOWN and DOKTOR GLAZ are offered up to take us into the penultimate leg of our favourite wager.

Favourite factor: Detectives are still searching for the last two favourites that missed out on Placepot positions after the first (9/4) market leader finished in the frame.

Record of the three course winners in the fifth contest on the card:

1/4—Newberry New (soft)

1/2—Top Cat Henry (good to soft)

1/3—Doktor Glaz (good)

 

4.45: There won’t be much of the trade press price of 10/1 about LASTIN MEMORIES on offer by the time that you read this analysis I’ll wager.  The average price at the time of writing is 8/1 with an anticipated SP of 15/2 in the making. Seven-year-olds have won half (3/6) of the renewals to date, whereby INSTINGTIVE could well land his hat trick following decent gold medal efforts at Ayr and Carlisle of late.

Favourite factor: Only two of the six market leaders have claimed Placepot positions in our finale, stats which have produced one (5/2) winner.

Your first 30 days for just £1

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Specific stats for Wetherby today:

Richard Johnson has two booked rides in the first and last events which makes for interesting reading.  Richard rides Saucysioux in the 2.00 and Up To No Good in the closing event at 5.15.

Richard boasts a ratio of 9/19 at the course this season, figures which have produced 23 points of level stake profit.

If we go back five years, the champion jockey offers a 26% strike rate via 19 winners at the popular Yorkshire venue.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Tuesday 13th March

CHELTENHAM – MARCH 13

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £436.70 (7 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 3 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are listed in brackets:

 

Race 1: 39.3% units went through – 25/1, 3/1**, 8/1 (3/1**)

Race 2: 87.1% of the remaining units when through – 1/4*, 12/1 25/1

Race 3: 42.8% of the remaining units went through – 9/1, 5/1*, 15/2, 33/1

Race 4: 30.1% of the remaining units went through – 5/1, 16/1, 6/1 (2/1)

Race 5: 95.2% of the remaining units went through – 7/2, 11/4, 6/4*

Race 6: Just 3.9% of the units secured the dividend – 16/1, 50/1, 33/1 (4/1)

 

Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Cheltenham: 

Leg 1 (1.30): 6 (Kalashnikov) & 4 (Getabird)

Leg 2 (2.10): 5 (Saint Calvados) & 2 (Footpad)

Leg 3 (2.50): 10 (Ramses De Teillee), 17 (Cogry), 4 (Shantou Flyer) & 18 (Eamon An Cnoic)

Leg 4 (3.30): 1 (Buveur D’Air) & 4 (Elgin)

Leg 5 (4.10): 1 (Apples Jade), 6 (La Bague Au Roi) & 8 (Midnight Tour)

Leg 6 (4.50): 5 (Jury Duty), 9 (No Comment), 16 (Ms Parfois) & 4 (Impulsive Star)

Suggested stake: 384 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Tuesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.30: Two things to say before I light the blue touch paper.  Firstly with four different courses to race on, the relevant course winners listed under each race have not been identified as C/D winners at Cheltenham this week because of the different 'routes' relating to so many horses and events, notwithstanding the ground which will probably dictate matters these next four days more than anything else.  Those damned bookmakers to go into the week with an edge, albeit the ground for most of this season has been soft or worse given the weather conditions we have endured.  Upwards and onward by revealing that five and six-year-olds have won 14 of the last 15 renewals of this opening event between them, securing 41/45 each way/toteplacepot positions during the study period.  If you want to venture back further in time, 39/45 winners have represented the two vintages. Melon was not as short as GETABIRD twelve months ago when beaten but it could be argued that KALASHNIKOV is the only serious rival this time around; hence the average 7/4 quote in most ‘books’ in the dead of night.  Despite the presence of plenty of half decent each way types in the field, I will leave you to determine which horse might cause something of a shock in the opening event as I home in on the front two horses in the market.

Favourite factor: Fate of recent favourites: 26 market leaders—5 winners—9 placed—12 unplaced. First three in the betting: 71 runners--12 winners--21 placed--38 unplaced.

Cheltenham record of course winners in the 'Supreme Novices':

2/3—Slate House (good & soft)

1/2—Western Ryder (soft)

 

2.10: FOOTPAD is a worthy favourite for the Arkle as Willie Mullins looks to win the race for the third time in four years.  His fencing has looked well up to the mark thus far, though I doubt he will have been rushed into the obstacles as much as is potentially on the cards today with SAINT CALVADOS in the field.  I have loved watching Harry Whittington’s five-year-old almost hurdling his fences this year, though that tendency is of course, dangerous at the top level when races are run so quickly.  What has impressed me even more in his way of turning up the gas in the second third of his races which definitely tends to get rivals flustered and it will be interesting to see if that happens again today.  Petit Mouchoir has definitely been ‘iffy’ when negotiating the larger obstacles thus far, which is very much one of the reasons I prefer the first named pair in what should be a fabulous spectacle.  Brain Power might have better suited to Aintree, especially with the ground probably being more in his favour at the Liverpool venue.

Favourite factor: Fate of recent favourites: 23 market leaders—7 winners—6 placed—10 unplaced. First three in the betting: 70 runners--14 winners--18 placed--38 unplaced.

 

2.50: Fourteen of the last nineteen winners carried a maximum burden of 10-12 whereby the recent dual winning efforts of Un Temps Pour Tout in the race are all the more impressive.  David Pipe has offered the green light to a pair of heavy ground inmates this time around and it would be a brave person to put lines through the chances of RAMSES DE TEILLEE and EAMON AN CNOIC as David bids for his fourth winner of the race in the last eleven years.  COGRY will probably be in another parish compared to the front runners for most of the race, though few will be finishing stronger I’ll wager.  SHANTOU FLYER completes my ‘short list’ against the field, especially as horses high in the handicap of late have been making their mark as opposed to days of old.

Favourite factor: Fate of recent favourites: 27 market leaders—1 winner—12 placed—14 unplaced. First three in the betting: 71 runners--10 winners--20 places--41 unplaced.

Cheltenham record of course winners in the Handicap Chase:

2/6—Shantou Flyer (good & soft)

1/5—O O Seven (good)

2/6—Vicente (good & good to soft)

2/6—Singlefarmpayment (good & heavy)

1/8—Coo Star Sivola (good to soft)

2/9—Cogry (good & soft)

 

3.30: I suggested that the ground looked like being too lively for BUVEUR D’AIR twelve months ago whereby his chance to defend his crown successfully is there for all to see this time around.  A winner of nine of this ten races over timber to date, Nicky Henderson’s grand servant could go on to emulate Nicky’s hat trick hero in the race, namely See You Then who scored between 1985 & 1987 putting the trainer and jockey Steve Smith Eccles in the shop window.  Money has dried up quite remarkably for Faugheen these last 24 hours, whereby ELGIN could sneak into the frame at a big price, whilst similar comments apply to last year’s runner up My Tent Or Yours.  Willie Mullins saddles some old faces but none of them should be able to budge the champion from his perch under these conditions.

Favourite factor: Fate of recent favourites: 24 market leaders—9 winners—6 placed—9 unplaced. First three in the betting: 69 runners--11 winners--25 placed--33 unplaced.

Cheltenham record of course winners in the 'Champion Hurdle':

1/2—Buveur D’Air (good to soft)

1/2—Elgin (soft)

2/2—Faugheen (good & good to soft)

1/6—My Tent Or Yours (soft)

1/3—Wicklow Brave (soft)

2/2—Yorkhill (2 x good)

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4.10: As a winner of ten of her fourteen races to date, APPLES JADE has a genuine case of boasting that she has done most to project trainer Gordon Elliot to the top of the tree in his chosen profession and there is every reason to suspect that Gordon’s six-year-old mare will improve her ratio this afternoon.  That said, the odds are prohibitive whereby I am offering a massive outsider to consider form a win and place perspective, namely MIDNIGHT TOUR.  Few trainers have had as much each way success with big priced runners in recent years as Alan King and 66/1 (available with plenty of firms this morning) is something of an insult to Davy Russell’s mount in my considered opinion.  LA BAGUE AU ROI more than deserves her chance in the race.

Favourite factor: The ten favourites have snared six golds and one silver/bronze medals to date, impressive stats that would have looked even better but for the fall at the last flight of Annie Power three years ago with the race at her mercy.

Cheltenham record of course winners in the 'Mares Hurdle':

1/2—Apples Jade (good to soft)

1/3—Indian Stream (good)

1/4—Midnight Tour (good)

 

4.50: Seven-year-olds have won seven of the last thirteen contests and there are least three stand out vintage representatives on this occasion, all of which are due to be ridden by household names which is not always the case in this event. The trio is listed in order of preference as JURY DUTY, NO COMMENT and MS PARFOIS, with IMPULSIVE STAR added into Placepot equation. Should Keeper Hill brush up his fencing on the big day, the Warren Greatrex raider would a threat to them all, though we cannot take that scenario for granted by any means.

Favourite factor: Fate of recent favourites: 23 market leaders—5 winners—4 placed—14 unplaced. First three in the betting: 72 runners--8 winners--14 placed--50 unplaced.

Cheltenham record of course winners in the 'NH Chase':

1/3—Clondaw Cian (soft)

1/9—Sizing Tennessee (soft)

1/2—Ms Parfois (soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Cheltenham card on Tuesday – followed by their ratios at the track this season and then their five year figures + profits/losses during that period:

13—Nicky Henderson (9/28) – 38/337 – loss of 142 points

13—Willie Mullins (0/1) – 27/221 – loss of 68

7—Gordon Elliot (1/8) – 13/110 +21

5—Henry De Bromhead (1/5) – 3/61 – loss of 38

5—Colin Tizzard (7/38) – 19/193 – loss of 87

4—Nigel Twiston-Davies (7/41) – 28/245 – loss of 69

3—Tom George (1/19) – 6/103 – loss of 61

3—Warren Greatrex (1/7) – 4/66 – loss of 36

2—Philip Hobbs (1/16) – 34/244 – loss of 19

2—Richard Hobson (0/2) – 0/15

2—Alan King (2/6) – 19/162 – loss of 27

2—Sophie Leech (0/154) – 1/33 – loss of 12

2—Donald McCain (1/4) – 3/39 – level profit/loss during the last five years

2—Neil Mulholland (2/5) – 10/69 – loss of 9

2—Paul Nicholls (4/28) – 42/361 – loss of 6

2—David Pipe (1/12) – 23/205 - +2

2—Sue Smith (First runners at Cheltenham this season) – 0/9

2—Harry Whittington (0/1) – 0/8

2—Evan Williams (0/6) – 7/88 – loss of 4

2—Nick Williams (1/11) – 6/54 +25

2—Venetia Williams (0/5) – 3/119 – loss of 82

+ 22 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

101 declared runners (115 last year)

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Sedgefield: £58.10 – 6 favourites – 3 winners & 3 unplaced

Southwell: £8.00 – 6 favourites – 4 winners & 2 placed

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Stat of the Day, 13th March 2018

Monday's Runner was...

3.20 Plumpton : Ballyheigue Bay @ 4/1 BOG 2nd at 4/1 Jumped right at times, led, ridden and headed approaching last, kept on one pace .

Next up is Tuesday's...

8.45 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Windforpower @ 4/1 BOG

A Class 6, 5f handicap sprint (3yo+) on tapeta worth £3,105 to the winner...

Why?

A 8yr old gelding who is already the veteran of some 124 races. Yes, 124 of them, winning 15 (12.1%) for them, but it's on the artificial surfaces that he prospers, making the frame in 23 of 43 (53.5%) attempts winning 9 (20.9% SR) of them and in respect of today's contest, those 43 A/W runs include...

  • 9 wins, 9 places from 29 at this 5f trip
  • 6 wins, 12 places from 27 at Class 6
  • 4 wins, 7 places from 22 here on the tapeta at Newcastle
  • 8 wins, 7 places from 21 when priced at 6/1 and shorter
  • 4 wins, 7 places from 19 over course and distance
  • 4 wins, 7 places from 18 when rated (OR) 51 to 60
  • 3 wins, 2 places from 10 wearing a visor
  • 2 wins, 3 places from 7 under jockey Ben Curtis
  • and 2 wins, 2 places from 6 in March

All of which suggest he'll be on the premises once more again on Tuesday evening and as you've probably guessed, Ben Curtis will be in the saddle, aiming to improve his record of 11 placers (68.75%) from 16 rides here at Newcastle for trainer Tracy Waggott since the start of 2017.

Of the 16, he has ridden 4 winners (25% SR) for profits of 19.08pts at an ROI of 119.3%, all in handicap contests with all four winners coming from 12 (33.33%) efforts over this 5f course and distance with the 23.08pts profit equating to a 192.4% ROI.

13 of the 16 races were at Class 6 with 3 winners (23.1% SR) returning profits of 16.13pts (+124.1% ROI) and at Class 6 over 5f, the Waggott/Curtis has 3 winners and 4 placers from 9 with a win only profit of 20.13pts (+223.7% ROI)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Windforpower @ 4/1 BOG which was available from 10 Bet and SportPesa at 5.20pm on Monday, but Bet365 were offering a standout 6/1 BOG at that time for those able to get on. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 8.45 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Friday 9th March

SANDOWN – MARCH 9

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £52.30 (6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced)

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Sandown: 

Leg 1 (2.00): 2 (Brianstorm) & 1 (Ar Mest)

Leg 2 (2.30): 8 (Kastani Beach), 2 (No Hiding Place) & 6 (Ratify)

Leg 3 (3.05): 1 (Westend Story) & 3 (Soul Emotion)

Leg 4 (3.40): 11 (Winter Lion), 1 (More Buck’s) & 4 (Baden)

Leg 5 (4.10): 1 (Tara Bridge), 3 (Darebin) & 2 (Big Jim)

Leg 6 (4.45): 3 (Lip Service), 7 (Lex Talionis) & 4 (Jet Set)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.00: Thanks for your patience yesterday and you were rewarded with a slight profit via the Placepot permutation, if you followed my permutation.  Nicky Henderson has saddled five of the last thirteen winners, a stat I have left in for those of you who retain records, with Nicky not being represented for the second successive season.  We are still left with two interesting horses to consider, with BRIANSTORM marginally preferred to AR MEST in what should amount to a ‘match’ a long way from home.

Favourite factor: Five favourites have won via the last thirteen renewals.  The thirteen gold medallists have scored at a top price of 7/1, whilst eleven recent market leaders secured toteplacepot positions.

 

2.30: I have a feeling that somebody in the office at William Hill is going to have their knuckles rapped this morning because win, lose or draw, 8/1 should not have been the price chalked up about KASTANI BEACH given his record in the race. Attracting potential ‘bet to nothing’ each way investments is invariably the wrong fork in the road to take, especially when the horse in question has finished in the frame in each of the last five renewals of a particular contest!  That is the record of KASTANI BEACH in this event and given that he won the race on one occasion (whilst the yard has won with two of their last five runners), you might expect there will be a red face hiding behind a newspaper this morning, whatever transpires.  Dangers include NO HIDING PLACE and RATIFY.  The ground has come right for Briac who might just save the blushes of the said individual though as a former Odds Complier myself I am all too aware that is not the point whatsoever, whereby the dreaded call into the Head Teacher’s study is inevitable!  Unlike in my day of course, corporal punishment is no longer politically (or lawfully) correct!

Favourite factor: Three clear market leaders have scored alongside two joint favourites via 19 renewals.  Fourteen of the twenty one jollies have reached the frame (exact science).

Record of the course winners in the field:

1/3—Briac (heavy)

1/5—Kastani Beach (good to soft)

 

3.05: WESTEND STORY would not have been entertained a week or three ago when Philip Hobbs was still trying to rediscover winning form but with the yard (hopefully) having turned the tide and his liking for soft/heavy ground in place, Philip’s Wetherby winner can take this event en route to better things.  SOUL EMOTION is likely to offer some sort of challenge if completing the course, something that Nicky Henderson’s new import has failed to so on his last two assignments. Perhaps a recent wind operation will bring about better timber topping on this occasion.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Sandown card.

 

3.40: Paul Nicholls has won four of the last eleven renewals of the Grand Military Gold Cup having secured a hat trick between 2005 and 2007 (all favourites), with Paul saddling seven losers in the interim period.  Paul saddled his 'second string' to snare the silver medal three ago at odds of 11/2, his 5/4 favourite having finished well down the field.  Paul has decalred MORE BUCK’S this time around, though it is a little surprising that the Presenting representative is failing to attract any money early doors this morning.  I guess that last year’s winner RATHLIN ROSE is the main reason for horses on the slide, though merits of others such as BADEN and WINTER LION should be considered in a fascinating renewal.

Favourite factor: Favourites have won eight of the last fifteen renewals, though just five of the other thirteen favourites have additionally secured toteplacepot positions during the last nineteen years.

Record of the course winner in the fourth race:

1/2—More Buck’s (good)

3/3—Rathlin Rose (2 x soft & good to soft)

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1/5—Arbeo (heavy)

 

4.10: On all known form, TARA BRIDGE should complete a hat trick here with just two rivals to beat.  Chris Gordon has his team in fine form as is usually the case at this time of the year, though the ground could be quite bad by the time that this event is contested.  For that reason,  the other runners are also included in the Placepot mix in this ‘win only’ contest.

Favourite factor: Only five of the seventeen favourites have claimed Placepot positions to date, statistics which include four winners.

Record of the course winner in the fifth contest on the card:

1/2—Tara Bridge (soft)

1/5—Darebin (soft)

 

4.45: LIP SERVICE, LEX TALIONIS and JET SET will hopefully land the dividend between them if we are live going into the final leg of our favourite wager.  This trio will offer better value for money that Three Star General likely as not.

Favourite factor: The Placepot finale is another new race ion the Sandown programme.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Sandown card on Friday – followed by their ratios at the track this season and then by their five year figures + profits/losses accrued on both fronts:

3 runners—Fergal O’Brien (1/3 +5) – 8/20 +30

3—David Pipe (1/2 +1) – 7/53 – loss of 23 points

2—Ben Pauling (1/6 – loss of 3) – 1/20 – loss of 11

2—Nicky Henderson (6/16 – loss of 3) – 37/135 +13

2—Philip Hobbs (2/8 +3) – 16/78 +8

2—Charlie Mann (0/3) – 2/28 – loss of 2

2—Gary Moore (1/22 – loss of 16) – 22/113 +71

2—Neil Mulholland (0/6) – 5/25 +6

2—Seamus Mullins (1/4 +4) – 3/25 +4

+ 24 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

44 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Ayr: £86.90 – 6 favourites – 4 winners & 2 unplaced

Leicester: £27.20 – 6 favourites – 5 winners & 1 unplaced

Newcastle: £375.50 – 7 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 3 unplaced

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Thursday 8th March

CARLISLE – MARCH 8

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £48.80 (6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at Carlisle: 

Leg 1 (2.20): 6 (Sory), 3 (Frightened Rabbit) & 5 (Once An Angel)

Leg 2 (2.50): 1 (Pinch Of Ginger) & 2 (Asking Questions)

Leg 3 (3.25): 3 (Instingtive), 2 (Shanaway) & 1 (Budarri)

Leg 4 (3.55): 2 (Major Hindrance), 4 (Never Up) & 5 (Grove Silver)

Leg 5 (4.30): 1 (Louse Talk)

Leg 6 (5.00): 1 (Cultram Abbey), 2 (Jimmy The Jetplane) & 4 (Killer Crow)

Suggested stake: 162 bets to 10p stakes

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Wincanton: 34.20 – 6 favourites – 4 winners – 1 placed – 1 unplaced

Newcastle: £27.10 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

Southwell: £44.90 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced

 

Apologies for the late/brief offering due to illness.  Hopefully back with you tomorrow - firing on all cylinders.

Stat of the Day, 8th March 2018

Wednesday's Result :

3.40 Fontwell : Cabernet D'Alene @ 3/1 BOG PU at 4/1 Never travelled and always towards rear, tailed off 3 out, pulled up before last.

Next up is Thursday's...

6.45 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Montague @ 4/1 BOG

A Class 5, 6f handicap (3yo) on tapeta worth £3,752 to the winner...

Why?

This 3 yr old colt has been running well of late, making the frame in each of his last three outings. he won a claimer at Wolverhampton at the end of January in what turned out to be his last run for Jamie Osborne, before finishing as a runner-up in each of his two starts for new handler David O'Meara since.

David's yard has been unusually on the cold list this winter, but with 5 of his 9 runners over the last two weeks making the frame, it does look like a corner is due to be turned and a winner should be on the horizon, hopefully Montague!

It should be noted that our boy is now dropping down a grade after those two Class 4 runner-up finishes and he might well be considered a tad unlucky to have bumped into a fast improving sort completing a 4-timer last out five days ago.

There's nothing of that ilk here today and added confidence comes from the fact that since the start of 2014, David O'Meara's runners turned back out just 4 to 7 days after top 4 finish are 39/186 (21% SR) for 33.74pts (+18.1% ROI) and with today's contest in mind, those include...

  • handicappers at 34/153 (22.2%) for 33.12pts (+21.7%)
  • over trips of 5f to 9f : 33/153 (21.6%) for 37.23pts (+24.3%)
  • at odds of 9/4 to 6/1 : 26/85 (30.6%) for 55pts (+64.7%)
  • those beaten by 1 to 5 lengths LTO are 19/79 (24.1%) for 38.6pts (+48.9%)

AND...horses ticking all four of the above boxes are 11 from 28 (39.3% SR) for 30.6pts (+109.1% ROI) profit...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Montague @ 4/1 BOG which was widely available at 5.10pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 6.45 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!