NEWMARKET (JULY COURSE) – JUNE 29
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2017: £235.80 (6 favourites: 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced)
Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:
Race 1: 63.6% units went through – 5/1 – 2/1* - 9/1
Race 2: 46.5% of the remaining units when through – 13/8* & 11/2
Race 3: 51.7% of the remaining units went through – 13/2 – 7/2 – 10/1 (9/4)
Race 4: 23.0% of the remaining units went through – 9/2 & 7/1 (11/8)
Race 5: 44.0% of the remaining units went through – 6/4* (Win only)
Race 6: 19.9% of the units secured the dividend – 4/1 & 10/3 (15/8)
Friday's Placepot permutation at Newmarket:
Leg 1 (5.35): 1 (Marilyn), 2 (Pour La Victoire) & 7 (Garth Rocket)
Leg 2 (6.10): 4 (Lover’s Knot) & 7 (Rollicking)
Leg 3 (6.45): 6 (Nicklaus), 2 (Rogue) & 4 (Kakhoor)
Leg 4 (7.20): 4 (Midnight Blue), 2 (Pippin) & 3 (Poetic Steps)
Leg 5 (7.55): 4 (Gorgeous Noora) & 1 (Tirania)
Leg 6 (8.30): 7 (Know Your Limit), 9 (Breath Caught) & 2 (Capton)
Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes
5.35: The twelve winners of the opening race have scored at 10/1-9/1-9/1-8/1-8/1-8/1-7/1-6/1-11/2-5/1-5/1-7/2-9/4** to date, whilst 20 of the 38 horses (53%) to have claimed Placepot positions have started at 7/1 or more. The stats suggest that you should treat this opening race with caution and perhaps only become financially involved via our favourite wager, leaving others to invest from a win perspective. The last ten winners (and twelve of the thirteen in total) have carried a minimum burden of 8-10 whereby my trio against the other five contenders consists of POUR LA VICTOIRE, MARILYN and GARTH ROCKET. Out of interest, four-year-olds have won five of the last nine renewals with MARILYN fancied to carry on the good work on behalf of the vintage. Whatever happens in the race, the trade press quote of the recent course winner POUR LA VICTOIRE was well wide of the mark at 9/2. 5/2 could be nearer the mark if current overnight support is sustained.
Favourite factor: Eight of the fourteen market leaders have secured Placepot positions to date. Successful favourites from a win perspective had been conspicuous only by their absence until four years ago, when the 9/4 joint favourites filled the 'short field' frame. That said, three subsequent results have reverted to type. New readers might like to know that the term 'short field' relates to races for 5/6/7 runners in which only the first two horses home qualify for each way/toteplacepot positions, especially if a non-runner rears its ugly head to deny us a ‘dead eight’ event.
Record of the course winner in the opening race:
1/1—Pour La Victoire (good to firm)
6.10: There is plenty of (realistic) money in the positive queue for Richard Hannon’s Holy Roman Emperor filly ROLLICKING at the time of writing, despite the fact that LOVER’S KNOT comes to the gig with a good reputation from the guys and gals down on Charlie Appleby’s estate. The latter named Invincible Spirit filly is a half-sister to Key Victory who won on his only start as a juvenile, whilst Rollocking kept on well for pressure behind New Winds recently. It’s difficult to envisage both of these horses finishing out of the frame in this grade/company.
Favourite factor: Two of the three market leaders have claimed Placepot positions by winning the two renewals to date.
6.45: All ten winners during the last decade have carried a minimum burden of 9-3 which eliminates just the one runner in the list unfortunately. I find it more than a little surprising that the analysis written by the trade press reporter mentions four horses in the race without including NICKLAUS who is the first name on my Placepot team sheet this evening. William Haggas continues to send out his horses to great effect in all grades of races and this is another inmate which has been supported on the exchanges overnight, which comes as no surprise to yours truly at all. Connections might have most to fear from ROGUE and FAKHOOR at the business end of proceedings.
Favourite factor: Seven of the last twelve favourites have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include four (7/2-9/4-11/4**-5/2) winners.
7.20: Mt Augustus looks weighted out of the equation from my viewpoint in this win only contest, though the other three runners all have claims on the best of their form, thoughts which suggest that the 4/7 quote about MIDNIGHT BLUE in the trade press looks too skinny. Indeed, Sir Mark Prescott’s projected favourite is not far off the even money mark at the time of writing which if anything, is a little generous! Whichever way the (betting) wind blows, MIDNIGHT BLUE will be joined by PIPPIN and POETIC STEPS in my Placepot mix.
Favourite factor: The seven favourites to date have secured three Placepot positions to date, statistics which include two (11/8 & 3/1) winners.
7.55: TIRANIA is another Haggas representative on the card which is attracting support, with connections probably having most to fear from Luca Cumani’s Raven’s Pass filly GORGEOUS NOORA who was beaten less that two lengths on her seasonal bow. Looking at the form figures in the race, Magical Dreams can be expected to attract tens of thousands of units but that could be a good reason to swerve James Fanshawe’s raider on this occasion.
Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Newmarket programme.
Record of the course winner in the fifth event:
2/9—Syrian Pearl (good to firm & good to soft)
8.30: Four-year-olds have won five of the last eight renewals and in a fascinating last leg of our favourite wager and KNOW YOUR LIMIT is a sporting selection to extent the vintage trend. Four of the last six runners sent out by trainer Ed Walker have secured Placepot positions, stats which include two (13/2 & 9/2) winners for good measure. My trio against the remaining six contenders is complete by BEREATH CAUGHT and CAPTON.
Favourite factor: All nine winners of the Placepot finale have scored at a top price of 9/1, with two (9/4 & 5/4) favourites having prevailed down the years.
Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:
1/3—Brorocco (good to firm)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.