Tag Archive for: Newcastle racecourse

Racing Insights, Friday 20/10/23

Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the report...

...have sadly yielded just one qualifier...

...but I can always fall back upon our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 1.55 Haydock
  • 2.25 Haydock
  • 4.35 Uttoxeter
  • 5.38 Redcar
  • 6.15 Dundalk
  • 7.45 Dundalk

Storm Babet continues to cause major disruption to meetings across Britain, so Fakenham and Uttoxeter's Friday cards must pass 7.30am inspections before being allowed to go ahead with Haydock already postponed. With this in mind, the A/W might be a safer place to focus on and we might as well have a look at Spirit of Ash from the H4C report above. She's one of three females in the 5.00 Newcastle, a 10-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 2m½f on standard tapeta...

Our featured runner Spirit of Ash was a winner here over 1m4½f just a week ago, making her the only LTO winner in this field, but most of her opponents have at least one win in their recent form, although Yasmin from York have lost her last seven and both Spritzin and Easter Island are maidens after eight and five races respectively.

Sophar Sogood is down three classes here after being well beaten at Class 2, but he's still a class higher than when winning two starts ago, whilst top weight Red Force One is down one level. Spirit of Ash goes the other way, moving up one class from her Class 6 win here a week ago, whilst out of form bottom weight Yasmin from York is also up one class, which I can't see being helpful!

Haaland, Spritzin and Artisan Dancer receive an 8lbs weight for age allowance here and the first named of that trio now wears cheekpieces for the first time after finishing third last time out. That was 29 days ago and whilst that's not exactly a distant memory, only Kiss My Face has been out of action longer and he might well need the run after 24 weeks off.

Despite being three from five here at Newcastle, Spirit of Ash hasn't won over course and distance (she hasn't gone beyond 1m5f), but both Bobby Shaftoe and the returning Kiss My Face have scored over track and trip, whilst Red Force One, Sophar Sogood, Artisan Dancer and Yasmin from York have won elsewhere over similar distances to this one.

One last note about Kiss My Face is that he's trained by Brian Ellison and will be ridden by Ben Robinson and this trainer/jockey combo have won this race for the last two years and Instant Expert suggests this runner should enjoy the prevalent conditions here...

Bobby Shaftoe also has a decent set of figures to back up his claims, but aside from Sophar Sogood, the field look pretty shy of Class 5 A/W wins and this is repeated in the place stats...

...where Yasmin of York would normally be of interest were she not in such poor form right now. Kiss My Face is the eyecatcher again here, but I'm just concerned he might need the run.

The draw stats for similar past races...

...are a little skewed by a poor set of results from horses drawn in stall 1...

...but that looks to be an anomaly and I'm fairly sure that the draw won't make or break the chances of a horse that has to run over 3500 yards after the gates open, so I wouldn't necessarily be ruling Bobby Shaftoe out right now, but I'd want him to race as prominently as he could from that lowest draw, if these pace stats are anything to go by...

That, sadly isn't normally the case ands he's generally held up or races in mid-field, as shown by his last four efforts below...

That said, there's very little pace in the race here and I suspect we'll have a falsely run race. Draw and pace will probably end up having very little effect on the outcome and if they go at a dawdle, which they might, then that's tailor made for the more natural hold-up types.

Summary

If we're not placing as much emphasis on draw/pace as we normally do, then it's going to be down to form, suitability, quality and the unquantifiable 'gut feeling' and with that in mind, I think I want to play at the bottom end of the pace chart. A lack of early pace would tend to set it up for a 'finisher'.

Spirit of Ash is the course specialist from the H4C report and I fancy her to go well, but she's never been beyond 1m5f, so may have to settle for a place/top 4 finish with Artisan Dancer the one I like most. He has finished 1116 in his last four and would have been much closer last time out, had he not been blocked off on the rail late on when flying home. He gets the trip, is in good nick, loves the A/W and is 3 from 6 under today's jockey.  He's the current 9/4 fav ahead of Spirit of Ash at 7/2, but neither price is particularly attractive/generous.

Elsewhere, at a bigger price, Bobby Shaftoe looks a reasonable E/W pick at 8/1, whilst Kiss My Face could well outrun his 12/1 ticket if fully tuned up after his lay-off, but you'd be taking his fitness on trust. Mind you, Skybet are paying 4 places, so who knows?

Racing Insights, Tuesday 17/10/23

The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

Here are my qualifiers on Tuesday's Shortlist...

...and as ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...

  • 2.50 Leicester
  • 3.05 Gowran Park
  • 3.35 Hereford
  • 5.35 Huntingdon

...and of the nine races above, the one featuring Valsad is the highest-rated, so we're heading for the 4.55 Newcastle, a 12-runner, Class 2, 3yo+, A/W handicap over a left-handed 1m4½f  on standard tapeta...

Before analysing the race in the way I normally do, I need to mention that the top weight Military March muddies the waters somewhat here. He hasn't raced anywhere in the last 999 days since only finishing eighth of 11 to Lord Glitters in Singspiel Stakes at Meydan, despite being sent off as the 11/8 fav and it's 1228 days since his last UK run which saw him finish fourth in 2020's 2000 Guineas on just his third outing. His second outing was four years and almost a week ago and that was a Group 3 victory.

I'm mentioning all this, because it's quite possible that he won't come out of my analysis too well, but Godolphin don't keep horses in training for no reason, do they? And there's no doubting his past ability, so I'll need to keep this in mind.

What we do know is that both Capital Theory and bottom weight (carrying two stone less than Military March!) Wynter Wildes won last time out and that Haunted Dream, Stowell and Onesmoothoperator are all without a win in their racecard-visible formline, having lost their last 6, 9 and 17 races respectively.

Military March and Blanchard are on handicap debuts here and are both down in class, as their last UK run were at Group 1 and Listed class respectively, but the bottom four on the card are all up in class; Southern Voyage, Capital Theory & Sir Chauvelin are up from Class 3, whilst Wynter Wildes won a Class 4 handicap at Yarmouth last time out. All bar Capital Thory of the four class risers have already won here over course and distance, whilst Blanchland and Onesmoothoperator have both won here, over a mile and 1m2f respectively, but neither have won over a similar trip to this one, nor have Military March, Wooton'Sun or Capital Theory.

Military March has been gelded during his long absence, Wynter Wildes is the sole female in the race, Sir Chauvelin is the oldest at 11 yrs of age and our sole 3 yr old, Blanchard, gets a useful 6lbs weight for age allowance and Instant Expert's overview of past runs under similar conditions looks like this...

Valsad made The Shortlist, of course, but we now see that it was based on just one run/win on the A/W at Southwell a month ago. Haunted Dream, Capital Theory and Sir Chauvelin have multiple A/W wins and the latter definitely likes this trip, whereas Onesmoothoperator's win record looks dreadful, despite the following graphic suggesting that he's usually a very good E/W bet...

...having made the frame in 12 of his 16 A/W starts including seven of eight here at Newcastle and he's possibly the pick on place form alone. He'll run from stall 4, whilst Godolphin's returner, Military March, has got box number 1 but past similar races here at Newcastle appear to have favoured those drawn highest...

...which could be good news for the likes of Southern Voyage, Wynter Wildes, Valsad and Haunted Dream. Those 40-odd races above really haven't been kind to horses that lead with the staling prominent horses picking them off late on..

When we look at how these runners have approached their last few races, we can attempt to predict how they'll tackle this one. Military March, of course, will be tricky to assess on A/W debut after a long absence, but here's how they have raced of late...

We've no out and out front runner here, but Capital Theory won from the front LTO, so might be tempted to take it on here, whilst Military March won the Group 3 Dubai Autumn Stakes from the front four years ago; Wootton'Sun, Omniscient and Blanchland have all also set the pace in one of their last four runs.

Summary

On past achievements, Military March should be absolutely thrown in on handicap debut off a mark of 107. I know it's more gut feeling than fact, but Godolphin don't bring horses back after three years off if they're no good and this makes him the one to beat here, but I'm not backing him at 11/4 or 3/1 taking fitness on trust, so I'll look elsewhere for a bet.

Wynter Wildes won nicely last time out and although up in class, she's carrying two stones less than the above-mentioned fav and at 14/1 could be a nice E/W bet, especially with most firms paying four places. I also like Haunted Dream and Valsad as potential placers, but 13/2 isn't quite long enough for me.

One that could be a bet at 8/1 or bigger is LTO winner Capital Theory, but the main interest in this race has to be how former star Military March fares on comeback, I wish him well.

 

Racing Insights, Thursday 31/08/23

Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 2.35 Navan
  • 3.35 Navan
  • 5.06 Bath
  • 5.30 Stratford
  • 7.45 Newcastle

...and of the three UK races, the one with the most Instant Expert data to work with is also the highest rated of the trio. It's race 26 of the Racing League, aka the 7.45 Newcastle, a 13-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 1m2f on standard tapeta...

New Dayrell won last time out to open his account at the seventh attempt, whilst Painters Palette also won, taking his 2023 record to 3 wins from 7. Storm Catcher has also won 3 of his last 7, as has Bashful, whilst Blue Yonder has won twice. Onesmoothoperator, Carolus Magnus, Wind Your Neck In and Cap Francais have lost their last 15, 10, 8 & 9 races repsectively.

Only Onesmoothoperator, Carolus Magnus and Roaring Gallagher ran at this Class 3 level last time out and the laatter now runs in a handicap for just the second time. Of the ten class movers, only Storm Catcher drops down from Class 2 with the other nine all up a level.

Onesmoothoperator is clearly on the cold list, but like Bashful, he at least won over this course and distance with only Miami Thunder of the others to have won on this track (over a mile two starts ago), but Storm Catcher, New Dayrell and Blue Yonder have won over this trip elsewhere.

The latter of those 1m2f winners, Blue Yonder has been off track the longest, but he really shouldn't have got rusty after just 54 days' rest with his rivals all having raced in the last five weeks.

Instant Expert has all the above course/distance wins logged and instantly highlights the poor record of top-weight Onesmoothoperator...

It's not the most inspiring set of numbers to base a bet (or not) on, but there's some green titbits to work with and some areas of concern like the records of Wind Your Neck In & Cap Francais at this trip, but I've a feeling that we'd be better off focusing on All-Weather place data...

...which somewhat remarkably shows Onesmoothoperator in a whole new light and on the A/W over trips of 1m2f to 1m4.5f, his ten runs have finished 1329222122. The 9th place was the only non-tapeta run and his Newcastle placings from that series are 1322, which is interesting to say the least. A few others are of interest and a this point, the ones I think I'd want to be working with are...

...who are drawn in stalls 2, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 & 10, so I suppose I'm hoping that the extreme low & high stalls are generally unsuccessful over this track/trip, so let's check the data from our draw analyser...

...which does tend to suggest that I'm better off avoiding those drawn in the first four stalls, whilst the PRB3 data also says that those drawn 7 to 10 have gone well in the past...

That said, it's not all about the draw when you're racing over a mile and a quarter, as there should be adequate time to overcome a supposedly-poor draw, if you get the race tactics right and according to our pace analyser, those races above have firmly favoured the prominent runner who stalks the leader(s)...

 

..and I suspect off the basis of the field's last four (and more) outings that it might well be LTO winner and Tapeta-debutant New Dayrell who sets the fractions here...

...and our pace/draw heat map based on the data presented so far looks like this...

Summary

Miami Thunder is the one for me here. He's the best positioned on the pace/draw heat map, he's in good form with a win and a runner-up finish from his last two run, both here at Newcastle. He rarely runs a bad race on the A/W, having finished 232512 in his six efforts and at 13/2, he's almost in E/W territory, but I'll back him to win.

Most of the above tells me to avoid Onesmoothoperator, but as a believer in the old "Horses for Courses" adage, I keep coming back to him, purely on his place form here at Newcastle and on Tapeta in general and I think there's still every chance that he'll outrun his 16/1 to 20/1 price tickets. Most firms are paying four places, but with SkyBet paying five, I'd be taking a small E/W punt here at 16's.

Elsewhere, I'd expect the likes of Storm Catcher to finish somewhere between that pair above and as he's priced at 8/1 generally, he'd also be a good E/W chance with those firms paying four places.

 

Racing Insights, Saturday 01/07/23

Wow! The second half of the year is already upon us and it kicks off on a Saturday, whose free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated just one qualifier, as follows...

Thankfully I do also have our selection of daily 'free' races at my disposal...

  • 12.40 Newmarket
  • 1.57 Chester
  • 2.05 Newcastle
  • 2.50 Curragh
  • 3.50 Newcastle
  • 5.30 Lingfield

The 'free' list is headed by a Listed contest from HQ, but unexposed 2yr old fillies aren't really my thing and the Northumberland Plate has far too many (19) runners for my liking, but not long after the Plate comes a useful looking contest on the 'free' list at the same venue, so let's look at the 3.50 Newcastle today. It's an 8-runner (fingers crossed), Class 3, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 1m2f on standard to slow tapeta...

Bottom weight Shimmering Sands was the only one of these to win last time out, but all his rivals have won at least one of their last seven outings. Qaasid is in good consistent form, finishing in the first three home in 8 of his last 9 nine starts (inc 2 wins) and he's the only previous course and distance winner in the field and also the only one to have raced at Class 3 last time out.

Elsewhere, Mr Curiosity, Thundering, Noble & Persist all drop in from Class 2, whilst the bottom three on the card, Cockalorum, Innse Gall and Shimmering Sands are all up in class. Aside from C&D winner, Qaasid, only Thundering has won here before, landing a 1m4½f handicap a little over a year ago, but he's one of two along with Mr Curiosity yet to win at today's trip.

The afore-mentioned Mr Curiosity might well need the run after 238 days off the track and at 273 days, you could say the same about Persist, whilst both of their rivals have raced in the past 5 to 7 weeks, bar Cockalorum who was in action at Pontefract last Sunday and will be running for the fourth time since the end of May!

Cockalorum has, in fact, competed 48 times already, whilst this will be just a fifth outing for Nobel and only his second in handicap company, but he did win his sole A/W outing. Instant Expert adds to the above data by informing us that a couple of these are running off marks considerably higher than their last win...

I've a feeling that the place stats might help us a little bit more in the way of data...

...but I'm not sure they clarify the picture for me! Good to see so much green, of course and this remains the course if we look at just A/W form...

...with the sole exception of Shimmering Sands, who tackles the A/W for the first time after ten runs on Turf. He's 3 from 3 over 1m2f including that win LTO, but he's up in class and weight and that allied to no A/W experience might just be too many unknowns here. He's drawn pretty centrally, though, in stall 4 of 8 and is likely to have to pass quite a few runners later on if he's wanting to win again, as the field's recent runs suggest he's probably going to be held up in the rear with the returning Persist...

A quick look at past similar races here says that Shimmering Sand's lower half draw is ideal here, but that his hold-up tactics haven't been the best approach here, as those tracking the leader(s) have fared best of all...

...which is probably better for the likes of Qaasid, just inside him in stall 3, whilst our pace/draw heat map looks like this with our runners superimposed on it...

Nobel is likely to set the pace, but Qaasid seems to have the ideal draw/pace profile here. Thundering will go off quickly, but he's in terrible form, whilst the draw might account for Cockalorum.

Summary

The pace/draw heat map says we should focus on Persist, Thundering, Qaasid and Noble. Noble's a little high in the draw and will be the target they aim for, he's also not in the best of form and has only one prior A/W outing, way back in December 2021. Qaasid, however, is in good nick, has the ideal pace/draw balance and is 2 from 3 on standard to slow and he's the one I'd want to be with here. he's a 5/1 shot in my book, so Bet365's price of 11/2 (at 4.40pm) is acceptable to me.

Of the others, Persist should go well and he'd be a real contender for me off his low draw if he'd had a run at some point in the last nine months and odds of 3/1 aren't appealing. The one at a longer price that might go well for E/W purposes could be Innse Galle near the foot of the weights. He has made the frame in 6 of 7 at this trip, placed twice in four Newcastle outings including two from three over course and distance (a 1-length defeat as runner-up in March) and although this is tougher than his usual races, he's not a bad E/W shout at 10/1.

 

Racing Insights, Tuesday 16/05/23

Tuesday's free offering from the GOLD service is the The Shortlist feature, a simple – and usually brief – report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day. It covers win or place stats, and can be viewed for both today’s and tomorrow’s racing.

GREENis good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBERis quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
REDis not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation is – and has always been – that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form - and its odds - imply. As ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information!

And this how The Shortlist looks for this Tuesday...

And we do still also have our daily list of 'free' racecards, which are as follows...

  • 4.25 Chepstow
  • 4.35 Newcastle
  • 6.00 Wetherby
  • 7.15 Sandown
  • 7.35 Killarney
  • 7.55 Sligo

...and although it's not the best race of the day or even the best of the 'free' list, we really should marry the free feature with the free cards and take a quick look at Killane in the 4.35 Newcastle, an 11-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a left-handed 2m1f on good ground...

Magic Mike and featured horse Killane both won last time out and aside from Artic Row's success four races ago, none of the others have won any of five starts with both Ebendi and Bebside Banter failing to complete twice in their last four outings.

The afore mentioned Ebendi makes just a second handicap appearance (fell at 2nd hurdle on hcp debut) and the recently out of sorts (pulled up in two of his last three) Bebside Banter is now fitted with first-time cheeekpieces, meaning that only Minella Youngy, Ebendi and Mactavish run without any headgear/apparatus.

Bebside Banter also drops down from Class 4 here, as do Irish Sovereign and Mactavish, but bottom weight Burnage Boy is up from Class 6 some three months after his last run.

Only Mactavish, who returns from six months off, has been away from the track longer than Burnage Boy, with the rest of the field having raced in April (plus a May outing for Bebside Banter).

As you'd expect from The Shortlist, Killane is a former course and distance winner and none of his rivals have won here before, but Artic Row, Ingleby Mackenzie and Magic Mike have all at least won over a similar trip.

Further conditions-related info courtesy of Instant Expert shows that just five of the field have a good ground NH win, but that half a dozen have won at Class 5. You can adjust the parameters yourself, of course to find the sole Class 4 win, but here are today's relevant win stats...

...where Killane aside, it's a pretty bleak picture. The areas I've most concerns about are Minella Youngy (class/distance), Artic Row (distance), Mactavish (time off/going/distance), Edmond Dantes (distance), Ingleby Mackenzie (class/distance), Magic Mike (going), Burnage Boy (class/distance), phew! Hopefully some of these will have better place records...

Hmmm, not much better to be honest. My next port of call is pace and if the field run like they have been running of late...

...then I'd expect Bebside Banter to be the one setting the tempo of the contest early doors with Mactavish and Minella Youngy the back markers. Featured runner Killane has raced prominently in two if his last four and does tend to run in an advanced position generally, which would seem to suit this race, based on past similar contests...

Summary

I wanted to marry up the free feature with the races of the day and that meant looking at Killane's chances here and the only possible negatives I have about him are that he's up 3lbs from his win a month ago and that we might not get a decent price when the book opens.

That said, he's only one pound higher than a win at Carlisle last year and he's back on good ground after winning on heavy last time out. Price-wise, 5/2 would be tolerable, but if I could get 3/1, I'd be much happier!

Others to note would be Magic Mike and Irish Sovereign with the latter hopefully a double digit-odds E/W option.

Racing Insights, Friday 07/04/23

Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the report...

...have sadly yielded no qualifiers for Friday, but I can always fall back upon our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 1.50 Newcastle
  • 2.40 Lingfield
  • 3.25 Bath

As is generally the case, I shy away from the Flat in early April, so the Bath contest is a no-go for me and whilst the Lingfield race is a decent-looking Class 3 handicap, the first on the list is probably the best of the three and that's the 1.50 Newcastle, a 10-runner, Class 2 Conditions Stakes for 3 yr olds. It's over a straight 6f on standard tapeta and a first prize of over £77k awaits one of these...

The entire field has at least one win inside their last four outings with Danger Alert (2 from 3), Desert Cop, Michaela's Boy (2 from 2), Shaquille (2 from 2 and 3 from 4), Hello Queen (2 from 3 ) and Perdika (4 from 4) all winnig last time out.

Less than half of them raced at Class 2 last time out, as Danger Alert, Michaela's Boy, The X O and perdike all step up two classes, whilst Desert Cop raced at Class 5. Conversely, Shouldvebeenaring was beatenh by just over a length in a Listed contest and drops down here.

Perdika wears a tongue tie for the first time here and Michaela's Boy is the only one yet to win over today's trip, although he has won here at Newcastle over 5f, as has Glorious Angel with Hello Queen being our sole course and distance winner having won LTO five weeks ago.

Conditions Stakes mean they all carry 9st 7lbs except the three fillies, Glorious Angel, Hello Queen and Perdika. And with Perdika having the highest OR (104), she's best off at the weights, effectively 6lbs well in with second best Shouldvebeenaring. Desert Cop looks worst off, rated 25lbs worse than perdika, but carrying 5lbs more : that's a tough ask over 6f.

Shaquille might need a run after a four-month break, but aside from Desert Cop's 51-day absence, the others have all raced at least once in the last five weeks. Shaquille, however, is the only runner in the field with a Class 2 A/W win to his name, whilst Desert Cop is the only one without a standard going win. These details along with the course/distance/weight datea can be seen here in Instant Expert...

...from which, I'd say Shaquille, Hello Queen and Perdika caught my eye first. All three are drawn in stalls 7 to 10 with Shouldvebeenaring, but I'd need to check the draw stats to see if that is likely to have any bearing on the outcome...

The 'bias' doesn't appear to be huge with win% ranging from 8.38 to 11.75, but that's possibly bigger than it might seem with 11.75 equating to 140% of 8.38, so in real terms those drawn high are 40% more likely to win here over 6f assuming, of course, they get their tactics right and as with many straight A/W sprints, it has paid to be at the head of affairs...

...which, combined with the draw stats, makes the heat map fairly unsurprising...

If we then look at how the field have approached their most recent races...

...then I'd expect Michaela's Boy, Desert Cop, Shaquille, Glorious Angel and Perdika to be making the running and if we add those runners to our heat map and arrange the field into draw order, it doesn't look good for Shouldvebeenaring, but most of the field would be happy with their lot...

Summary

I expect Michaela's Boy to blast out and attempt to win from the front, but he's up two classes here and has all his best form over 5f. Desert Cop was weak finishing in two 7f contests before landing a Class 5 maiden over 6f last time out, but this is much tougher and might be too much of a step up too soon. Glorious Angel has the benefit of the 5lb allowance but has toiled in her last three UK and one French outing since winning here by a neck over 5f in January.

I don't really fancy any of those three to win and if I was to pick one of those, it would be Michaela's Boy as an E/W pick at a rather attractive 18/1 with Betfair/Paddy Power (or 14's with Hills paying four places).

As for my winner, I think I've narrowed down to Shaquille and Perdika. Both are in good form, Perdika is best off at the weights, both scored well (green) on Instant Expert with Perdika having the better numbers. Both are drawn high and both will race prominently and I'd expect both to be involved. That said, the 6/1 (Bet6365) Perdika appeals more than the 7/2 (Coral & Ladbrokes) Shaquille, so that's how I'd play it.

Good Luck & Happy Easter!

Please note, I'm away at a wedding on Good Friday, so no Saturday preview and I'm back with you on Monday afternoon/evening for Tuesday's racing.

 

Racing Insights, Friday 24/03/23

Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the H4C report...

...have yielded the following...

...and this free report is, of course, backed up by our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 2.15 Hereford
  • 2.50 Hereford
  • 3.00 Musselburgh
  • 6.30 Dundalk

And I think we really need to look at Elzaam in the 8.15 Newcastle, which is a 14-runner, Class 6, A/W handicap over a straight 5f on standard going tapeta. He has raced at this class, track and trip nine times so far in handicaps and his results read 332211311! From those nine races he is 1311 under today's jockey Graham Lee, 311 in fields of 12+ runners and he's 11311 in his last five career runs, incidentally all here over course and distance.

Here's the card...

As you can see, he's one of just two (in-form Enraged being the other) LTO winners but five of his rivals (Primo's Comet, Enraged, Kraken Power, Nellie French & Another Angel) have also won over course and distance.

Most of his rivals (except Impressor @ 112 dlsr) have raced in the last five weeks and Shabaaby, Primo's Comet & Enraged all drop in class to run here in what will be just Madam Arkati's second run in a handicap.

As you'd expect, Elzaam dominates the Instant Expert section of the card...

...but a few others do at least have some creditable numbers behind them. There is however a large number of red boxes with horses having poor results from a fair large sample size ie Araifjan on the going, One Hart (track), Primo's Comet (going/track/trip), Mews House (going/trip), Marwari (going), Nellie French (track) and Another Angel (class). To be honest, I do see it as a negative if your percentages are still that low after 10 or more attempts. Hopefully the place stats will show some of these in a better light...

A simplistic view here is that Elzaal, Enraged, Kraken Power and Marwari might be the ones to make a shortlist from, although you could still make a case for a few others. That said, Primo's Comet and Impressor do look like they might well struggle.

Elzaal is drawn in stall 11 of 14 on a track/trip where not only have high draws prevailed most often, but stall 11 has been the most successful of all...

And he has been drawn in 10 or higher in three of his four course and distance wins to date. So, Elzaal is in great form, he's the course/distance expert and has got a great draw, so here's the downside? Well, if there is one it's the fact that he's likely to have pass most of his rivals late on if he's to win again, as recent runs suggest he's likely to be held up for a late run...

...and that's not generally the way to win such races here at Newcastle, if we refer back to those races we used for the draw stats...

So, the main possible negative is that he runs from a career-high mark with a possible poor pace profile, but he has won his last two here from the back of the field suggesting he might be the exception to the rule and if we're looking for high drawn leaders, I suppose that's Another Angel in #13, who might well give Elzaal a good two into the race from wide.

Summary

I really can't see Elzaal not making the frame here, especially with most firms paying four places, but at 6/1 he's not E/W material for me. The biggest challenges will probably come from in-form class dropper Enraged (current 5/1 fav) and Kraken Power who can be had at 2.50pm at 17/2 with Hills, which would probably be my E/W play.

Kraken Power was just a nose behind Enraged when they met here last month and with Kraken Power a pund better off here, it's sure to be tight between the pair and then when you add the late run from Elzaal, we could have a cracking finish. Any of the three could get it on the nod, but if I stuck my neck out, it'd be with featured horse Elzaal.

Please note, I'm off to Oslo this (Thursday) evening, returning home on Monday, so the next Racing Insights column will be for Tuesday's racing (28th).

Racing Insights, Wednesday 15/03/23

A nice 11/1 placer and near 12/1 tricast/trifecta from the opening day of the Festival on Tuesday warmed things up for me nicely, but back to business now.

Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 2.10 Cheltenham
  • 6.00 Kempton
  • 6.15 Newcastle
  • 7.15 Newcastle

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have, sadly, generated no runners for me to consider, so I'm going to take a look at the last of the 'free' races, the 7.15 Newcastle, an 8-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a straight 7f on standard going tapeta...

My initial thoughts were that this would be a contest between Justcallmepete, Walking On Clouds and Lord Rapscallion, but let's see what the card and tools us. None of the field won last time out, but Alexander James was a runner-up and Walking On Clouds, Lord Rapscallion & Swiss Ace all finished third, whilst Justcallmepete, Walking On Clouds, Lord Rapscallion and Abnaa have all won at least two of their last five outings.

Justcallmepete, Lord Rapscallion and Abnaa all drop in class to run here with the other five all have raced at this grade LTO. Both Swiss Ace and Abnaa are note as fast finishers and Archduke Ferdinand makes both a handicap and a UK debut after racing to some success in Sweden, although he was disqualified in each of his last two runs for 'medical irregularities'.

He's also likely to need the run after 199 days off track whilst all his rivals have been seen in the last 1 to 3 weeks and he's up against three former course and distance winners in the shape of Swiss Ace, Gobi Sunset and Abnaa. Alexander James and Walking On Clouds have both won here over a mile and 6f respectively whilst Archduke Ferdinand won over 7f on dirt in Sweden and Lord Rapscallion has a couple of Chelmsford 7f successes to his name.

Instant Expert, as ever, has all the relevant form under these conditions...

...where aside from failing to make the frame on his only previous visit to Newcastle, Lord Rapscallion catches the eye and it should be said that his previous run here was at Class 2 over two years ago! Justcallmepete gets the going, but has a poor record at 7f and the same can be said about Walking On Clouds too, but if we look at place form, there's a school of thought that he might be better than those numbers...

Unusually for a straight 7f track, we do have a bit of a draw bias here...

...where it has been advantageous to be drawn in the higher half of the draw, which will be music to the ears of those following Walking On Clouds and if you can get a high draw here, the prescribed tactics are to race prominently tucked in behind the leader(s), according to the heat map...

...and that's because those races above that we used for the draw stats have been won as follows...

Walking On Clouds is unlikely to race prominently though, as his average pace score from his last four outings suggests more of a mid-division position, but at a 15% strike rate the high draw/mid-div combo doesn't do too shabbily. The stats suggest Lord Rapscallion will keep him company, whilst Abnaa sits out back in a race that Gobi Sunset is likely to set the tempo...

...and if we transpose our horses' running styles onto that heatmap...

...you'd probably say Gobi Sunset from a low draw and Swiss Ace/Walking On Clouds from the higher stalls as the ones catching the eye.

Summary

I started off with the thought that this would be a contest between (in racecard order) Justcallmepete, Walking On Clouds & Lord Rapscallion and it was those three plus Abnaa who have been in the best recent form. Lord Rapscallion was the first to emerge from Instant Expert, but when we looked at place form, both Gobi Sunset and Walking On Clouds came to the fore.

The draw seems to favour Walking On Clouds, Swiss Ace and possibly Abnaa, whilst Swiss Ace probably had the best pace profile and it was he, Gobi Sunset and Walking On Clouds I noted from the pace/draw heatmap.

So what does that mean? Well, it means that purely on form/namechecks, I'd be siding with Walking On Clouds with Lord Rapscallion as next best. As for another for the frame/tricast etc, it's any of Justcallmepete, Abnaa, Gobi Sunset and Swiss Ace and I think that Abnaa might just be the one. He's down in class, gets weight all round, he's a fast finisher and won over course and distance three starts ago. As along as he's not too far off the pace, he could fly home and grab a place, making a nice 11/1 E/W bet if you're so inclined.

As for my 1-2, Walking On Clouds is a 9/2 shot, which is fair and Lord Rapscallion is an equally fairly priced 8/1. also good for E/W punters.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 07/03/23

Hi guys, I'm back from Istanbul and ready to go again!

The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information] and here is Tuesday's Shortlist...

...where the top five on the list would be of more immediate interest. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover the following...

  • 3.15 Newcastle
  • 3.25 Lingfield
  • 3.50 Newcastle
  • 4.35 Lingfield

And as one of the top five on The Shortlist is also running in one of our 'free' races, we should see how top-weight Burrows Diamond might get on in the 3.15 Newcastle, a competitive-looking, five-runner, Class 3, 5yo+ handicap chase over a left-handed 2m7½f on good to soft ground that is good in places. The forecast is sunny and dry, so the track might quicken slightly for these...

None of these won LTO, but Glittering Love was a runner-up, beaten by just a head, whilst only featured horse Burrows Diamond and Donna's Double have won any of their last five outings. Glittering Love now steps up in class, however, but Burrows Diamond and The Ferry Master both drop down a level.

The latter now wears a visor for the first time and is the only course and distance winner in the field. Burrows Diamond has won here over 2m4½f and proved her stamina with a 3m½f win at Wetherby, whilst Frenchy du Large has won at neither track nor trip.

Donna's Double has never won beyond 2m4½f (Ayr) but had bumper and hurdles wins here over 2m½f and Glittering Love has won over 3m½f on a couple of occasions, but is yet to win here at Newcastle, as seen below...

Burrows Diamond, as expected, looks the standout on Instant Expert, albeit at 7lbs higher than her last win. Frenchy du Large looks relatively consistent if unspectacular. Donna's Double has little handicap experience, but does have a couple of non-hcp course wins to his name. The Ferry Master ticks a few boxes and has won over course and distance, but is probably better suited to Class 4 racing, whilst Glittering Love's place form is very interesting for a horse that really doesn't win often enough.

BURROWS DIAMOND produced two really good efforts in December at this grade to win at Wetherby (3m½f, soft) and then be a runner-up at Doncaster (3m, good) four weeks later. Not at her best at Uttoxeter next/last time out, but she was up in class that day. Back at Class 3 here and eased a pound, this should be more to her liking.

FRENCHY DU LARGE won a pair of 2m4f chases either side of Christmas 2021, but has raced just four times in the last year, falling twice and then going down by 22 lengths, before finishing third of five last time out and has yet to win in four starts beyond 2m5½f.

DONNA'S DOUBLE won on bumper debut, won on novice hurdle debut and won on handicap chase debut. The latter was in early January and he was raised 4lbs for that win, but could only manage 6th of 8 next/last time out. He has obvious potential but I'd say he'd want a shorter race on softer ground, but remains unexposed.

THE FERRY MASTER is the sole C&D winner, but that was back in November 2020 and he's 0 from 11 since; a run of form that has seen his mark slip from 134 to today's 117 and that speaks volumes. He should be able to win off this mark, but haiving been well beaten in his last five, it'd be a surprise if he did well.

GLITTERING LOVE has a decent record over fences, with 5 wins and 5 further places from 16 efforts and was only beaten by a head at Kelso last time out. He's up in class and weight here and isn't getting any younger at the age of 11, but he could go well here with the drop in trip possibly helping.

Based on their recent outings, I'd expect Frenchy du Large to be setting the pace with feature horse Burrows Diamond happy to sit back and let things unfold for a while...

...but past similar contests have favoured those likeliest to 'get on with things'...

Summary

For me, other than a pace disparity, feature horse Burrows Diamond ticks all the boxes and I think she's the one to beat. With such a small field, there's a real chance of  the race being falsely run, which play into the hands of those who tend to finish well and on that basis, plus the other positives about her, I'd suggest that 10/3 about Burrows Diamond might be a decent price.

As for the others, pace-setter Frenchy du Large might well hold on and looks big at 7/1, so he could be E/W material, but it's equally likely that if Burrows Diamond pulls through the pack later on. that he drags perennial placer Glittering Love along with her for the runner-up spot.

Racing Insights, Monday 20/02/23

The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.

This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...

  • 3.15 Carlisle
  • 4.45 Lingfield
  • 5.00 Newcastle

...from which I'm heading North East for a quick look at the 5.00 Newcastle, a six-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 1m4½f on standard tapeta...

VICTORY MARCH has failed to make the frame in three starts this year after winning each of his last three in 2022 and finishing 1212111 in his last seven of that year. That run of form took his mark from 53 to 80 and he now looks too high in the weights to win. He is, however, down in class and has won two of three previous efforts over course and distance.

BUXTED TOO looks the form horse here, finishing 3111 in four starts this year, winning three times at 1m4f/1m4½f after a third over 1m2f. The mniddle of those three wins was here over course and distance and although he's up 3lbs for hi last win, he is down in class and will probably be the one to beat.

GREEN PLANET is a 13-race maiden across five spheres (1 x NHF, 1 x chs, 6 x hrds, 2 x flat and 3 x A/W) and hasn't raced on the Flat for 21 months nor on the A/W for 23 months, but his A/W form does read 223. That said, he really looks up against it here on his yard debut for Jedd O'Keeffe.

CASA LUNA is also a maiden, but after just three unplaced (4th of 9, 3rd of 7 & 3rd of 6) runs on polytrack. She's also making her yard (and handicap) debut here for Philip Kirby off an opening mark of 71, which seems neither generous or onerous if truth be told. She was well beaten over a mile and also over 1m4f, but was only beaten by just over half a length at Chelmsford over 1m2f on her second outing and that might be her trip. Others make a better case here.

TYPEWRITTEN is the third of the trio making starts for new handlers today and she comes here after a pair of placed (2 x 3rd of 10) finishes in Class 5 A/W handicaps over 1m6f and then 2m½f on tapeta at Southwell and Wolverhampton. This grey mare now drops back in trip, but she has raced ten times (3 wins and 3 places) over 1m4f, so that drop shouldn't be an issue and I'd expect her to go well.

JUBILEE GIRL has just six races under her belt and having finished 544 in three runs on turf last summer to acquire a handicap mark of 65, she took six months off prior to an A/W campaign this winter starting with a pipe opener over 1m2f here at Newcastle on Jan 13th. She then won over 1m3f at Southwell eight days later, before going down to the re-opposing Buxted Too here over C&D 13 days later (17 days ago) She was a runner-up that day, beaten by just a length. Jubilee Girl is now 5lbs better than Buxted Too, so there's every chance she could overturn the deficit, especially if she's handily placed late on as she's marked on the card as a fast finisher.

At this point Buxted Too and Jubilee girl seem the pair to focus on and this is backed by Instant Expert, albeit off small amounts of data...

Now these two couldn't be drawn any further apart here, but regular readers of my 'stuff' know that I don't always place huge importance on the draw when you've got a small field over a trip longer than a mile, but there are exceptions to every rule and the stats suggest that a mid-to-high draw here is better than being drawn low...

...which is advantage Buxted Too over Jubilee Girl and if we run those same races above through our Pace Analyser...

...we find that those who have been waited with are the ones to be on and that unsurprisingly the next graphic, the pace/draw heat map, shows a strong bias to mid-t0-high drawn hold up types...

If we the revert back to our draw and our two initially favoured runners, Jubilee Girl's best chance from Stall 1 would appear to come from a prominent running style, whilst wider out, Buxted Too would be advised to tuck in towards the back.

But how do we know how they'll run? Well, sadly, we don't! But because we log every runner's racing style, we can often build up a fairly clear picture of how they might run. We allocate a score of 1 to a hold-up run, 2 denotes mid-division positioning with 3 for a prominent run. Leaders get 4 (surprise, surprise) and here's how the field have raced in their last four (last three for Casa Luna, of course) outings...

...and this suggests that both Buxted Too and Jubilee Girl like to race in a prominent position and that it's Victory March and/or Typewritten who will be the back marker(s). The latter, typewritten was interesting from my write-ups above, when I said I'd expect her to go well and from an ideal Pace/Draw setup, she should be the main challenge to Buxted Too and Jubilee Girl.

Summary

I've just said that Typewritten should be the main challenge to Buxted Too and Jubilee Girl and that's exactly how I see it, but to get involved she'll need one of that pair to run poorly. She's currently a 6/1 shot, which isn't quite long enough for my liking as an E/W play when there are only two places paid, because I can't see her beating both of the favoured pair. However, if a 25% profit from the race is enough for you, than a 6/1 E/W bet on Typewritten might suit you.

As for the winner, Buxted Too and Jubilee Girl are best priced at 15/8 and 7/2, but I don't think those odds reflect their respective chances and I'd have expected something closer to 9/4 vs 11/4 when you consider than Jubilee Girl is 5lbs better off than a one length defeat and I think that she would be the value play here at 7/2 with Bet365. (forecasts and reverse forecasts, too?)

Racing Insights, Tuesday 14/02/22

It's Valentine's Day on Tuesday and I'm just back off a long/heavy weekend, so I'm not exactly feeling the love. Hopefully the racing will provide a spark for me and The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information] and here is Tuesday's Shortlist...

...where Hoganville & Statu of Liberty are of obvious interest. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...

  • 3.00 Lingfield
  • 3.55 Ayr
  • 7.30 Newcastle

Both of the interesting Shortlist horses run in 'free' races, so let's quickly see if either are worth backing, starting with Hoganville in the 3.55 Ayr, an 11-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a left handed 3m on good to soft ground...

HOGANVILLE arrived from Ireland last summer with a 0 from 9 record for Paul Nolan in Ireland, but he has since finished 1113 in his four starts for George Bewley with his second win coming over course and distance in late October. This run of form took his mark from 96 to 112 and he was beaten by 13 lengths in to third last time out under today's weight; a mark that might ask a little too much of him. He'd had a month's rest, though, so who knows?

Instant Expert suggests that he's one of the few who should relish the conditions...

...and those four at the top may well be where the winner comes from in a race that in the past has rewarded those getting on with it more than those who want to be waited with...

This field's recent races have looked like this...

...and of the four from Instant Expert, I'd have to omit hold-up horse Nicandeasy, leaving me with Apple Away, Hoganville & Leostar to consider in my summary later.

*

Race 2 sees top-weight Statu of Liberty make just a second handicap run in the 7.30 Newcastle, an 8-runner, Class 5, 3yo A/W handicap over a straight 5f on standard to slow polytrack...

STATU OF LIBERTY was a winner here in a 6f maiden three starts ago for Brian Meehan, but finally made her handicap debut at Southwell last time out almost four weeks ago. That was her seventh career run and first for new handler Michael Dods, but could only finish 6th of 7, beaten by almost 4.5 lengths.

She's down in trip and has been eased 3lbs by the assessor, but she'd still have room to improve if she wants to win here. That said, she's the main eye-catcher in another sea of red on Instant Expert...

...where Colors of Freedom also has some good numbers, especially over this trip. Based on recent outings...

I'd imagine the field will have chase to Statu of Liberty down to win, as she appears to be one most likely to set the tempo of the contest in a race that has favoured front runners in the past...

.

So far so good for Statu, then and the draw has her in stall 2 with only Tantalus inside her, but sadly the higher drawn runners have done much better here...

...but pace is more important than draw here over a straight 5f, as shown by the pace/draw heat map...

Summary

In race 1, we got it down to Apple Away, Hoganville & Leostar and they're priced at 5/2, 6/1 and 8/1 , from which only Leostar is worth backing E/W (keep an eye out for firms paying 4 places). All three are capable of making the frame, but if pushed for the winner, I'd fancy Apple Away to 'pip' (sorry!) the other two.

As for the evening contest at Newcastle, Statu of Liberty has plenty going for her, but I do fancy the top two in the market Sugar Hill Babe (5/2) and the 11/4 Colors of Freedom to beat her, but Statu currently trades at 9/1, so is of E/W interest.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 31/01/23

The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information] and here is Tuesday's Shortlist...

...where at least the first five are worth a second look.

As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...

  • 2.35 Newcastle
  • 2.42 Limerick
  • 3.45 Newcastle
  • 4.00 Ffos Las

...and as Shortlist Horse Fortified Bay runs in a 'free' race, I'm going to look at the 2.35 Newcastle, a 7-runner, Class 3, 5yo+ handicap chase over a left-hand 3m (after rail movements) on soft ground...

Fortified Bay won last time out, but all bar Castle Rushen (serial placer) and Wowsham (possibly weakest in the field) have won at least one of their last five and the two who are winless in five both won six races back. The Shortlist horse steps up in class after that win 16 days ago and he's the only course and distance winner in this field. Top-weight Morning Spirit drops in class and he's one of just two others (French Paradoxe being the other) to have already won at a similar trip, but we've no other track winners aside from Fortified Bay.

We've nothing new to report regarding surgeries, equipment, yard changes etc, but Wowsham hasn't raced for almost 20 weeks, but his rivals have all been out in the last 40 days and the class rising 11 yr old Fortified Bay is 3yrs older than most of the field.

MORNING SPIRIT has made the frame (9 times) in almost half of his 19 outings but has fared much better over hurdles, although he did win a Class 3, 3m1f, soft ground chase at Carlisle in November. He struggled off this mark LTO and probably needs to come back down in the weights to win again.

CASTLE RUSHEN never raced at all for 20 months prior to appearing at Wetherby in December and unseating his rider upon his chasing debut, but did finish 2nd of 9 here over 2m4½f next/last time out and that Wetherby race is the only time in his nine races that he hasn't finished in the first three home, winig three times and was placed at Listed & Grade 2 over hurdles.

WOWSHAM showed little in six Flat/AW runs prior to winning one of nine over hurdles. Hasn't raced sine mid-September when last home of five, beaten by 68 lengths at Navan and doesn't inspire confidence on his chase debut.

FRENCH PARADOXE has finished F11F in his last four over fences and was 8 lengths clear when falling at the last at Ffos Las just before Christmas. If he gets round today, he has an excellent chance of a third chase win, but will his jumping hold up?

FORTIFIED BAY was off track for 19 months from early May 2021 and was pulled up on his first two runs back (late Nov at Haydock and Boxing Day at Wetherby), but took advantage of a low mark of 117 to win by 10 lengths at Kelso 16 days ago. This is tougher up in class (+1), trip (+2f) and weight (+8lbs).

OLD PAINLESS is a former PTP who didn't do much in three efforts over hurdles, but won by 14 lengths on chase debut just before Christmas and was a runner-up next/last time out, despit going up in class. trip and weight. Up another 6lbs here, though and asked to go further than any of his other five starts under Rules.

HOUSTON TEXAS won three staying chases at Carlisle in a row last year, but struggled to 6th of 10 next time out and since then, has raced just once over hurdles, where he was only 5th of 8. Gets weight all round, but he looks second best of his yard's two runners here behind Castle Rushen

Instant Expert gives us the lowdown on the field's win & place records under similar conditions...

and past similar contests here at Newcastle have favoured those up with the pace...

...which based on the following...

...would appear to make life tougher for Castle Rushen and Houston Texas.

Summary

It looks like a three-horse race to me, between Castle Rushen, French Paradoxe and Old Painless, but none of them emerge from the analysis scot-free.

On form, French Paradoxe has fallen twice in his last four outings and he scored weakest of the three on Instant Expert, He does, however, have the advantage on pace, where Castle Rushen looks the one with ground to make up. Castle Rushen also doesn't win often enough, but is generally good for a place. As for Old Painless, he's now 13lbs higher than his last win and has never raced this far before and with French Paradoxe also considerably higher in the weights than his last win, this could well open the door for Castle Rushen to grab a first win over fences at the third attempt.

Racing Insights, Friday 20/01/23

Friday's free feature, the Horses for Courses (H4C) report does exactly what it says on the tin ie it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track and is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting and as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but as ever please refer to our User Guide for further information!

My own settings (you get to choose your own parameters) for the H4C report...

...are quite restrictive and as such, have produced two qualifiers...

Our daily feature is always supplemented by a number of 'free' racecards, but this selection has been decimated by the current cold snap, leaving us with...

  • 2.20 Southwell
  • 5.45 Newcastle

The latter of those two looks the better contest on paper, so let's have a quick look at the 5.45 Newcastle, a 9-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a straight 5f...

Bert Kibbler is the only one to have won last time out and he comes here on a hat-trick after back to back wins at Southwell. Bellagio Man has made the frame in each of his last seven, including runner-up finishes in each of his last three outings. Modular Magic was also a runner-up LTO.

The bottom three on the card, Bert Kibbler, Modular Magic and Primo's Comet are all up a class, but top weight Papa Don't Preach drops in from from finishing 3rd of 6 at Class 3.

Maritime Rules is the only one yet to win at either trip or track, whilst Motawaazy and Primo's Comet have acheived both here at Newcastle. Bellagio Man's win over 6f here in November makes him the only other course winner, but he's the only other non-winner at 5f. Mind you he's only had one attempt!

Hat-trick seeking Bert Kibbler is not only up in class, but it's also his first run in just over a year, which might be problematical. Maritime Rules has had a seven-week break, but the remainder have all raced in the last three weeks with Papa Don't Preach, Motawaazy and Modular Magic all sighted inside the last week.

We already know that we've three course winners and seven distance winners, but Instant Expert tells me that we've five winners on Std/Slow and two winners on the A/W at this grade...

Motawaazy and Bert Kibbler catch the eye in a largely uninspiring set of figures. Perhaps place data might clarify a few things...

Well, it certainly helps me to eliminate Papa Don't Preach, Dusky Prince and Primo's Comet from my calculations on the basis that if you're scoring red for places, how likely are you to win? Bellagio Man may be 0/9 at this level, but with 7 placed finishes, he's certainly not discounted, especially with a full line of green. After taking those three runners out, my field looks like this in draw order...

...and as you can see, I've removed the two widest drawn runners, which according to our draw analyser, might not be the wisest decision...

..but it does boost the cause of Bert Kibbler in #7, I suppose and if he runs like he was doing last winter, he's the most likely to try to make all here...

...with Instant Expert place eyecatcher Bellagio Man the one to bring up the rear in the early stages. Let's now assess those races from the draw analyser for pace...

...and they're saying that Bert Kibbler's approach should work here, as the further back you race, the harder it is to win, as it is with most 5f contests.

The pace/draw heat map should therefore highlight a high drawn leader as a runner of serious interest...

...and it would suggest that Bert Kibbler is very well positioned.

Summary

Here I have a problem, the pace/draw heatmap is so stacked in Bert Kibbler's favour that it's hard to ignore, he has 3 wins and 2 places from 5 Tapeta runs over 5f and he does come here on a hat-trick. But there's bad news too, he hasn't raced for just over a year and he's up 8lbs and up in class, so he'd more likely be one for the places if he's not quite race sharp.

The other side of the coin is that I think Modular Magic and Bellagio Man are the best runners in the race (so does the market, sadly), but both are poorly drawn. The former will be closer to the pace than the latter, but the latter's consistency on the A/W is brilliant.

The truth is that I don't know who I think wins this, but if Modular Magic returns to front-running, he could shade it seeing as he lost by a short-head over course and distance a week ago after being unusually held up. He's currently 5/2, Bellagio Man is 9/2 and Bert Kibbler is 6/1. From a value perspective, you'd want the latter to win, but I just can't call it. I think that these are your placers, but none are long enough for me to back E/W, so I'll sit this one out.

Monday Musings: Of Hughie’s Fighting Fifty-Fourth…

They could have done a better job of it. After all, the two ITV racing presenters, Ed Chamberlin and Francesca Cumani, on Saturday sitting in their studio at Newbury and principally watching the Ladbrokes (morally the Hennessy) Trophy Chase did have some high-grade professional help, writes Tony Stafford.

You would have thought Ruby Walsh, normally the best race reader among television pundits who knows exactly where every rider and horse are throughout every race, jumps or flat, and Sir Anthony McCoy would have known better.

Their preamble to the Betfair Fighting Fifth Hurdle at snowy, windy Newcastle was restricted by its proximity to Newbury’s feature, but A P found plenty of time to laud former Champion Hurdler Epatante and, after the thrilling finish, praise Nicky Henderson for getting her back in top shape.

It was a fan club all round rather than an objective appraisal and they got half their wish, Epatante clinging on for a share of the £88k combined first and second prizes. I’ll come to her co-star in a moment, after saying there was plenty of mention in the short time available beforehand for Paul Nicholls’ second favourite Monmiral, evergreen Sceau Royal, and the striking grey, Silver Streak.

One name missing from their deliberations was that of Not So Sleepy, making his return to jumping following an unplaced effort at Aintree after a much better fifth in last year’s Champion Hurdle, two places and just over three lengths behind Epatante but ahead of Silver Streak.

As such, these were the first three home-trained finishers in Honeysuckle’s first Champion Hurdle and, Buzz apart if he takes the shorter route, there isn’t too much around that will obviously subvert their position come March. Neither, on the evidence of yesterday’s outstanding Hatton’s Grace hat-trick by the Champion, will the now 13-race unbeaten record for the mare be challenged seriously any day soon.

Saturday’s partisan attitude would be understandable if Epatante was still being considered as having a chance to avenge her defeat, but it is routine enough for serious Champion Hurdle contenders to begin their season at Newcastle. Nicky Henderson has achieved more mind-boggling feats of a revivalist nature than this. She really must be the apple of A P’s eye. It certainly sounded it.

Now seven years of age, J P McManus’ mare is the veteran of 14 races and nine victories, the first two coming from three runs as a three-year-old in AQPS Flat races in her native France.

Not So Sleepy has also won nine races, four on the Flat and five over hurdles for owner-breeder Lady Blyth and trainer Hughie Morrison. He is rising double digits in age, a factor that never phases Morrison who can always point to the victory of his ten-year-old gelding Alcazar in the 2005 Group 1 Prix Royal-Oak at Longchamp, a race in which the second and third home were respectively six years and seven his junior.

Not So Sleepy has had an unusual as well as a lengthy career for a high-class dual performer. He won first time out in October of 2014 as a juvenile over a mile and half a furlong at Nottingham. First time out at three, he was the narrow winner of Chester’s Dee Stakes, a Listed race but perhaps one long overdue a re-grading.

Successful before Not So Sleepy were Derby winners Oath (1999) and Kris Kin (2003), while since then, future Irish 2,000 Guineas and Breeders’ Cup winner Magical and the multiple Group 1-winning Circus Maximus (2019) have also won the race.

I was with the Oath team at the time and, forgive the after time, managed to get a nice price about Oath’s following up at Epsom from Simon Clare, Corals’ course rep at the time. If you think Not So Sleepy is long-lasting, then the same Mr Clare was presenting the prizes on behalf of Saturday’s sponsors to connections of Cloudy Glen who won the Ladbroke Trophy in the colours of the late Trevor Hemmings. Simon hardly looks a day older and deserves congratulations for the way he has sailed serenely through all the mergers and takeovers that have been so prevalent in the world’s biggest betting organisations.

The Chester 2015 win for Not So Sleepy understandably brought a reaction from the handicapper and he started life in that sphere on 107. Equally unsurprisingly, wins proved elusive and it was not until his 17th career run, on Oaks Day 2017, more than two years later, that he won a ten-furlong handicap off 98 under Adam Kirby.

Another 18 months were destined to pass with continued struggle meaning that not until January 19th 2019, after he had run 32 times, did Morrison experiment with hurdles. Sleepy ran three times, fourth running free at Kempton, then winning unchallenged at Wincanton before proving much too exuberant on a return to the West Country track where he finished a well beaten fifth of eight.

Back on the Flat and still with a mark in the 90’s, that summer he had a programme of six runs culminating with an excellent fourth of 30 to Stratum in the Cesarewitch. Here is where the Morrison imagination stepped in. Clearly believing a hurdles mark of 122 would be manageable given the jumping and the tearaway tendencies could be overcome, Morrison lined up an Ascot handicap that November. He bolted in and, a month later and raised just 5lb, he ran away with the £85k to the winner Ladbroke Hurdle back at Ascot on only his fifth jumping appearance.

Not So Sleepy was as a result one of the favourites for that season’s Betfair Hurdle at Newbury but after a couple of false starts he found himself on the wide outside of the massive field and was hampered at the start, losing all chance. His 15th of 24 was disappointing but not enough to dissuade connections of a Champion Hurdle challenge. This soon fizzled out as Epatante strode home up the hill to a popular success.

Back on the Flat he polished off a little race over a mile and a half in late summer at Pontefract under Graham Lee, the prelude to another fourth place in the Cesarewitch, as Willie Mullins completed a hat-trick in the great Autumn staying race.

That was the ideal preparation for another jumps campaign. Unfortunately in the Fighting Fifth at Newcastle he set off in front but unseated Johnny Burke at the first hurdle. Chastened, Hughie and Lady Blyth sent him to more familiar surroundings of Ascot where he delivered win number two in the Ladbroke.

This time, it was doubly satisfying as Buzz, a horse Hughie had nurtured (I used that word about their relationship last week and I still like the sound of it!) through his early career but had been whisked off by connections to Nicky Henderson for jumping, could get no nearer than second.

Buzz, two years his junior, was well ahead of Not So Sleepy later on when second at Aintree and he has since won the Cesarewitch, denying Mullins a fourth consecutive win in the race by beating Burning Victory and then the Coral Hurdle this month.

Although only fifth in the Champion Hurdle of 2021, Not So Sleepy far exceeded his handicap mark. At the time he was 7lb clear lowest in the entire field on 149, raised briefly to 155 before Aintree but again down to 152 for Saturday.

Again in a big race, he improved on anything he had done before. Epatante had been dropped to 154 after last season’s Champion Hurdle, but she received 7lb from the geldings on Saturday. Sceau Royal, another length and a half back in third and fourth-placed Silver Streak were both on 158 while the disappointing Monmiral is rated 153.

After Sceau Royal the gaps were six and a half and then eight and a half lengths. It seems inevitable that Not So Sleepy should be raised to at least 158, so his highest-ever figure will have been achieved as a rising ten-year-old. Not many trainers could manage that!

As to the way the race evolved, the complete outsider Voix Du Reve, Not So Sleepy and the grey Silver Streak formed the leading trio all the way round with the others grouping behind them.

One acknowledgement of Not So Sleepy’s performance was forthcoming afterwards, one of the experts saying he had been in the lead group but still rallied at the end.

My contention is that had he bothered to jump either of the last two flights properly, he would probably have won outright, and the verve with which he battled back, running in between the other pair up the run-in after the second mistake, spoke volumes.

Tough doesn’t cover it and when you consider how most of the way round with his unusual head motion out to the right between the jumps, you got the feeling he was playing rather than racing in a championship race, that is doubly valid.

I don’t suppose as a ten-year-old he will end the trainer’s Champion Hurdle blank – and something would need to cause Honeysuckle to miss the race on yesterday’s showing. Yet as long ago as 2002, Marble Arch, another of his Ladbroke Hurdle winners the previous December, finished second to Hors La Loi in the Champion Hurdle with a very youthful Ruby Walsh in the saddle.

Hughie is on target for his usual tally of around 50 Flat wins but at a markedly highest-ever strike rate of 18%. It is widely accepted he can train anything - juveniles, champion sprinters, middle-distance stars or top stayers. Indeed if he hadn’t come up against a future Irish St Leger winner, Sonnyboyliston, running off a gift mark in the Ebor, he would have easily beaten his best prizemoney tally too.

And what of Not So Sleepy, a veteran of 54 races, yet sound as a pound and honest – if quirky – as the day is long? He no doubt will continue to thrill and entertain us hopefully for a year or two to come. Maybe after Newcastle A P and Ruby will give him a little more pre-race respect next time he turns up when they are on the telly!

- TS

Monday Musings: Newcastle helping the rich get richer?

For decades they said it. The north needs an all-weather track. Just over six years ago the announcement that Newcastle racecourse would indeed be tearing up its turf and replacing it with an all-weather circuit which would include a straight mile was greeted incredulously, writes Tony Stafford.

At the forefront of the criticism were some of the biggest trainers in the sport. Articles in late August 2014 by Greg Wood in the Independent and Chris Cook in the Guardian quoted, respectively, John Gosden and William Haggas, although others such as Mark Johnston, Sir Michael Stoute and Ralph Beckett were equally critical.

Gosden told Wood: “This is sacrilege. There is a requirement for an all-weather track in the north of England but Newcastle is emphatically not the solution. Racing on a one-mile straight as betting-shop fodder under lights will produce one-dimensional boat races.

“British racing requires upgrading and the destruction of one of the best turf courses in the UK is sacrilege,” Gosden re-emphasised.

Haggas spoke to Cook as the big-players’ campaign to prevent the change gathered momentum. Presumably the fact they were resisted by ARC (Arena Racing Company) was quite a surprise. Several of the same group were equally vocal in their criticisms of recently-departed Nick Rust at the start of the Covid pandemic back in the spring.

Regarding the Gosforth Park transition, Haggas told Cook: “The only way to stop it is not to support it <in other words a boycott>. The north does need a track nearer than Southwell but surely this <Newcastle> isn’t it.” He went on: “Field sizes will suffer as the horse population shrinks and opportunities there increase. Johnston and Fahey won’t want to come down <to the existing all-weather courses in the south>.”

Indeed, Haggas went so far as to say that, if ARC did get their way to have the new all-weather track replacing the turf Flat course, they would almost certainly respond by closing one of their other tracks.

Anyway, history tells us that with a Michael Dickinson-inspired Tapeta surface, the switch did indeed happen, and no other all-weather track has closed.

Then on November 28th 2016, “Mr Sacrilege” chose Newcastle ahead of Kempton, Lingfield, Southwell , Wolverhampton or the recently re-opened Chelmsford for the debut of Enable, the best horse to race in the UK, never mind ratings, since Frankel.

There were seven all-weather fixtures at Newcastle in the final month of 2020. Understandably Mark Johnston was, as ever, represented but in eight novice or condition races in the period Haggas, Gosden, Beckett and Stoute’s staff all loaded up the horseboxes for the 486-mile round trip. It would have been more like 600 miles for the Beckett runner, a December 12th novice winner from a Haggas odds-on shot with Gosden and Johnston runners following him home.

On the first day of December, a ten-furlong two-year-old novice was won by one of two Charlie Appleby Godolphin runners with Gosden, Johnston and Gosden again the next three home. Fifth and sixth were Charlie’s, Fellowes and Appleby. Three days later, David O’Meara struck a rare winning note for the locals in a six-furlong juvenile novice, with a Haggas favourite only fourth.  A three-year-old novice later on that card fell predictably to a Saeed Bin Suroor-trained 5-1 on shot for Godolphin.

There was no Newmarket-trained runner in the novice on December 15th but six days later Sir Michael Stoute stepped in with an odds-on winner, beating a Roger Varian runner with Haggas again well beaten in fifth.

On December 28th the sole Newmarket runner in the novice for three-year-olds and up so emphatically outclassed the ten northern hopefuls that it started at 3-1 on and won comfortably for Charlie Fellowes.

The north might have got its all-weather track but I’m sure the last thing the trainers handling the fortunes of 179 stables of the 595 listed in the 2020 Horses in Training annual as being based north of the Trent, are finding it all that satisfactory.

William Haggas warned that Mark Johnston and Richard Fahey would no longer send their horses south, but from the moment he and John Gosden realised that however good Gosforth Park had been as a Flat turf track, it was at least as good for all-weather, the die was cast.

So much so that when the 2019 Vertem Futurity at waterlogged Doncaster needed a home in November last year, Newcastle stepped in to stage its first Group 1 race. That its winner, Kameko, went on to win the 2,000 Guineas next time out could only encourage the big shots to keep coming.

I could easily have miscounted the number of trainers operating north of the Trent on my one-time slow-motion read through yesterday and the location of some of those towards the west of the country might be questionable. What is fact is that almost 30% of UK trainers are relying on Newcastle for their chance to get some winter prizemoney.

The two major training centres in the north are Middleham, home among many others to Johnston, and Malton, where Fahey trains.  From Middleham to Newcastle involves a one-way trip of 60 miles. It’s around 84 from Malton.

As Gosden said those few years ago, they needed somewhere nearer than Southwell, 106 miles from Middleham. When the Johnston lorries wheel out of Kingsley House or Kingsley Park in the mornings their travelling lads face trips of 231 miles (one-way) to Chelmsford, 254 to Kempton and 274 to Lingfield. It’s a relatively short hop of 160 miles to Wolverhampton.

The West Midlands track has already been busy this year with a fixture in a snow storm on Saturday evening. Today will be the first of four consecutive days and five more before the end of the month will bring its tally up to ten January fixtures.

That will be exceeded by Lingfield with 11, followed by Southwell, eight, and Kempton with six. There are only three planned for Chelmsford, two fewer than Newcastle’s five. The only snag is the programmes at Newcastle are not very northern-trainer-friendly.

Of 35 planned races (usually one or two per meeting can be divided) there is a bias towards high-rated handicaps which does not help many of the smaller trainers based in the region, where most small stables rely on second-hand moderate animals.  Of the 35, only seven cater for horses with an upper limit of 60 – two are 0-50 (including one classified), three of 46-55 and two 46-60. Most of these are at the end of the month.

Contrastingly, there are ten opportunities for horses rated from 61 to 95 and nine more for those from 51-75. Eight conditions or novice races will keep the wagons rolling north from Newmarket and beyond.

Wolverhampton’s next four days feature 31 races, and 14 of them are in the 0-60 brackets with five catering for 0-50 horses. As the BHA no doubt will say, northern stables can easily come down but while the richer owners with their horses in the top Newmarket stables can shrug off expensive travel costs and all-day absence of staff attending those horses, smaller operations are far less able to persuade owners to stump up high expenses for the chance of gaining modest prizemoney.

To put it in perspective, a horse trained near Newcastle, where there is no suitable target, will need to travel to the other tracks and undergo 150 miles to Southwell, 204 to Wolverhampton, 274 to Chelmsford, 298 to Kempton and a bumper 318 miles to Lingfield.

The respective distances from Newmarket are 50 to Chelmsford, 93 to Lingfield, 103 to Southwell, 105 to Kempton and a still-manageable 121 miles to Wolverhampton.

In 2020 John Gosden ran 168 different horses on all-weather tracks winning 62 races from a total 266 runners.  Nine of the wins came at Newcastle, including Palace Pier, winner of a conditions race on his reappearance in June, a race that provided the springboard for two Group 1 victories. He lost his unbeaten record when third in the Ascot quagmire behind The Revenant on Champions Day at Ascot, until which time he was regarded as the best miler in Europe.

So that is the sort of opposition the locals will have to contend with going forward unless something is done. I think it’s time that some of the vulnerable targets that can be so easily picked off are made a little more difficult.

Many years ago, there were a few races restricted to horses trained north of the Trent. Maybe it’s time to re-instate them so that maidens at least can become more competitive. True, that might mean that with fewer 5-1 on shots, the betting-shop cannon-fodder might be improved – imagine what long odds-on shots must do for turnover! – and northern trainers will be less frightened of getting too near horses that are almost sure to go on and be pattern-race performers.

There must be a case anyway that anything that helps restrict the further spread of Covid in these testing times is welcome. Scotland is in total lockdown but horse boxes can roll in with impunity from south of the border.

There is one person, apart from the former most vocal opponents of Newcastle’s remodelled track, who would be mortified if the traffic north stops coming up from Newmarket. Simon Mapletoft, often the course link at Newcastle, is beside himself with excitement when a Gosden, Haggas or indeed any of the other big HQ stables has a runner.

Still, as he commented the other day, Southwell will be switching to Tapeta soon, so he can look forward to getting just as reverent in Nottinghamshire before long as he has been in Northumberland these past few years.