Tag Archive for: Paul Nicholls

2025 Fighting Fifth Hurdle Trends

Sponsored by leading bookmaker BetMGM the Grade 1 Fighting Fifth hurdle is staged at Newcastle racecourse.

Having first been run in 1969 the contest is often seen as an early-season trial for the Champion Hurdle, with the Nicky Henderson-trained Punjabi (2008) and Buveur D'Air (2018) the last horses to win both races in the same season.

The 2017 and 2018 Champion Hurdle winner – Buveur d’Air – landed this race in 2017 before going onto Cheltenham glory again in March 2018, while he also took the prize in 2018 and was second in 2019.

In 2022 we saw the exciting Constitution Hill romp to victory by 12 lengths - beating the two-time past winner Epatante, before going onto win the Champion Hurdle later that season.

While last season in 2024 the Nicky Henderson-trained Sir Gino landed the spoils with ease.

Here at GEEGEEZ, we are on hand as we look back at past winners and highlight the key trends to look out for ahead of the 2025 renewal – this year run on Saturday 29th November.

Recent Fighting Fifth Hurdle Winners

2024 - SIR GINO (6/5 jfav)
2023 - NOT SO SLEEPY (9/1)
2022 – CONSTITUTION HILL (1/4 fav)
2021 – EPATANTE (11/8) / NOT SO SLEEPY (18/1), Dead heat
2020 - EPATANTE (8/11 fav)
2019 – CORNERSTONE LAD (16/1)
2018 – BUVEUR D’AIR (11/8)
2017 – BUVEUR D’AIR (1/6 fav)
2016 – IRVING (6/1)
2015 – IDENTITY THIEF (6/1)
2014 – IRVING (6/4 fav)
2013 – MY TENT OR YOURS (8/11 fav)
2012 – COUNTRYWIDE FLAME (11/4)
2011 – OVERTURN (7/4)
2010 – PEDDLERS CROSS (9/4)
2009 – GO NATIVE (25/1)
2008 – PUNJABI (8/11 fav)
2007 – HARCHIBALD (4/1)
2006 – STRAW BEAR (Evs fav)
2005 – ARCALIS (9/4 fav)
2004 – HARCHIBALD (9/4 jfav)
2003 – THE FRENCH FURZE (25/1)
2002 – INTERSKY FALCON (11/10 fav)

Note: The 2023 running was staged at Sandown Park.

Fighting Fifth Hurdle Betting Trends & Stats

24/24 – Won a hurdles race over at least 2m before
21/24 – Won at least a Grade 2 hurdle before
20/24 – Finished in the first two in their latest race
20/24 – Won at least 4 times over hurdles before
19/24 – Placed favourites
19/24 – Officially rated 151 or higher
15/24 – Won their last race
13/24 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
12/24 – Favourites that won (1 joint)
8/24 - Trained by Nicky Henderson (8 of last 17) (9 wins in total)
7/24 – Raced over hurdles at Newcastle before
6/24 – Won by an Irish bred horse
5/24 – Won by a previous winner of the race
4/24 – Won by an Irish based yard
2/24 - Trained by Paul Nicholls (2 of last 11)
The average winning SP in the last 24 runnings is 5/1

Note: The 2008 renewal was staged at Wetherby, and the 2010 race at Newbury

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2025 Charlie Hall Chase Trends

Run at Wetherby racecourse the Bet365 Charlie Hall Chase is a Grade 2 contest run over 3m1f. With 18 fences to be jumped this gives National Hunt fans an early season chance to see some of the top chasers back on the track, and can often provide a good guide to the main jumps festivals later in the season.

We take a look back at recent winners and gives you all the stats that matter ahead of the Charlie Hall Chase race - did you know that 15 of the last 22 winners were aged 8 or older, while it's a race the Nigel Twiston-Davies yard have a great record in - winning it six times, including in two of the last 8 seasons.

The 2025 Charlie Hall Chase will be run on Saturday 1st November 2025.

Recent Charlie Hall Chase Winners

2024 - THE REAL WHACKER (5/1)
2023 - GENTLEMANSGAME (7/2)
2022 – BRAVEMANSGAME (2/1)
2021 - FUSIL RAFFLES (10/3)
2020 - CYRNAME (3/1)
2019 – BALLYOPTIC (11/4)
2018 – DEFINITLY RED (3/1)
2017 - BRISTOL DE MAI (6/1)
2016 – IRISH CAVALIER (16/1)
2015 – CUE CARD (11/4 fav)
2014 – MENORAH (8/1)
2013 – HARRY TOPPER (5/1)
2012 – SILVINIACO CONTI (11/10 fav)
2011 – WEIRD AL (7/1)
2010 – NACARAT (6/1)
2009 – DEEP PURPLE (9/2)
2008 – STATE OF PLAY (5/2 fav)
2007 – OLLIE MAGERN (11/4)
2006 – OUR VIC (6/1)
2005 – OLLIE MAGERN (5/2 fav)
2004 – GREY ABBEY (5/1)
2003 – BALLYBOUGH RASHER (40/1)
2002 – MARLBOROUGH (7/2)

Charlie Hall Chase Betting Trends

21/23 – Rated 151 or higher
20/23 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
17/23 – Were having their first run of the season
17/23 – Had won over at least 3m over fences before
15/23 – Aged 8 or older
14/23 – Had won at least 4 times over fences before
13/23 – Aged 8 or 9 years-old
12/23 – Ran at Ayr (3), Aintree (7) or Cheltenham (2) last time out
12/23 – Placed favourites
9/23  - Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
8/23 – Had run at Wetherby before (4 won)
4/23 – Winning favourites
4/23 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies (6 wins in total)
3/23 - Trained by Paul Nicholls (5 wins in total)
2/23 – Ridden by Harry Cobden (2 of last 5)
2/23 – Trained by Evan Williams
16 of the last 20 winners aged between 7-9
ALL of the last 20 winners aged 9 or younger
Nigel Twiston-Davies has won the race in 1992, 1994, 2005, 2007, 2017 and 2019
The average winning SP in the last 23 runnings is 13/2
The last winner aged 10+ was in 2004 (21 runs ago)

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More on Price Movement in NH Markets, Part 2

Last week I wrote the first of two articles looking at price movements from Opening Show odds to SP in National Hunt racing, writes Dave Renham. This is the follow-up piece expanding on that initial research. As before, the data has been taken from the last five full years, covering 2020 to 2024. I have used William Hill bookmaker prices, and I will use ‘OS’ to denote the Opening Show odds.

To begin, I would like to look at differing race types. Specifically, I want to compare chases with hurdles to see what percentage of these runners shortened in price, lengthened in price (drifted), or stayed the same price, when comparing their OS to their SP.

 

 

As the graph indicates, there was a bigger percentage of drifters in hurdle races compared to chases, and hence fewer hurdlers shortened in price compared to chasers. If we look at non-handicap hurdle races versus handicap hurdle races it can be seen that in non-handicaps 49.4% of all runners drifted, whereas in handicaps the figure stands at 46.2%. Interestingly, this percentage ‘swing’ is reversed when we look at non-handicap chases versus handicap chases. The splits this time see more drifters in handicap chases (44.7%) compared to 41.1% for non-handicap chases. This is a good example of where we can see the importance of digging down into the long grass. We saw this in the first article when noting the differences between certain courses, in the splits for class of Race, and in how the OS odds affect the likely direction of any potential price movement.

I also looked at bumper (NH Flat) races where 47.9% of runners drifted from OS to SP compared with 38% that shortened (just 14.1% remained the same price).

Next, I would like to see there is anything material in terms of day of the week. I am going to concentrate solely on the percentage of drifters on each of the seven days my suspicion being that Saturday will have the lowest percentage, due to having stronger markets. Let’s see:

 

 

Saturday does indeed have the lowest figure which correlates with the race class and course data shared in part one last week. Saturdays tend to have better races when the day is viewed as a whole, and more of the top tier courses are in action on this day of the week, too.

In that prior piece it was noted that Cheltenham was the racecourse that had the smallest percentage of drifters out of all the courses. With the Cheltenham Festival roughly three weeks away, I thought it might be helpful to see what the splits are in terms of runners that shortened in price, lengthened in price or stayed the same price, when comparing their OS to their final Starting Price Odds at the Festival. Here they are:

 

 

This is quite a change from what we have seen so far. Horses remaining the same price from OS to SP have occurred more than either of the other groups. Horses that lengthened in price have a figure 16% lower than when looking at NH races as a whole. I had expected the percentage figure for drifters to be somewhat lower than the norm due to the strength of the Festival markets, but I had not anticipated as much as 16%. I also did not expect the 'stayed same price' group to come out clearly ahead of the others. It has made me think that maybe I write an article where I do a deeper dive into the Cheltenham Festival in terms of price movements, incorporating early morning odds moves too. More of that to come perhaps.

Time to switch attention now to some trainer data. To begin with here are the trainers with the highest percentage of runners that have shortened in price between OS and the ‘off’. To qualify a trainer must have had at least 200 runners during the period of study:

 

 

13 of the 20 trainers have higher percentages for shorteners than for drifters. When I looked at flat trainer data back in the Autumn only two trainers managed that feat. Four of the ‘big guns’ - Nicky Henderson, Paul Nicholls, Willie Mullins and Dan Skelton - are absent from the list, so what about them? Here are their splits coupled with a selection of some other familiar names not seen as yet (again the table is ordered by % of shorteners):

 

 

It is quite interesting to see Skelton, Nicholls and Henderson with the smallest percentages for horses that have shortened in price from OS to SP. It is also interesting when we compare their shorteners with their drifters in terms of value by using the A/E index. The graph below shows the splits:

 

 

For all three there has been far better value in their runners that were backed in between OS and SP compared to those that drifted. Indeed, you would have made a tiny profit to BSP on all Paul Nicholls runners that shortened in price from OS to SP.

In terms of negatives beware Henderson drifters in chases: of the 283 chasers that drifted 43 won (SR 15.2%) but they accrued losses of £58.26 (ROI -20.6%) to BSP. In addition, Henderson non-handicappers (any NH race type) that drifted have also proved to be poor value losing over 18p in the £.

As far as Paul Nicholls is concerned a drifter is a bad sign if ridden by stable jockey Harry Cobden. Although just over 20% of them have still won, backing all 834 qualifiers would have seen a loss to BSP of £184.51 (ROI -22.1%). Conversely, drifters from the Nicholls yard not ridden by Cobden have won more often (21.5%) and proved profitable to BSP to the tune of £108.80 (ROI +19.3%). These runners would secured a blind profit to Industry SP of around 6p in the £ as well. Meanwhile, if a Dan Skelton runner drifts at Cheltenham, beware, as only four of the 87 have won for losses of over 66p in the £.

My final piece of ‘drifting’ data for these three trainers comes in the form of their record in Class 1 races when this occurs. Their results are shown below:

 

 

Henderson’s record is modest but not terrible, but for the other two the figures are very poor. I would not be keen in the near future to back a Skelton or Nicholls drifter in a Class 1 event.

Sticking with these trainers and Class 1 events, let us see their performance when their runners shorten in price before the ‘off’. Unsurprisingly, we see a contrasting picture to the earlier one:

 

 

All three have edged into profit with solid figures across the board. Clearly, for these three trainers in top level races the strength of their runners in the market just prior to the off is very important.

Olly Murphy is another trainer who has a couple of stats worth mentioning. Interestingly, his drifters have won almost as often as those that have shortened in price – 18.2% versus 20.6%. Given those numbers, it won't shock to learn that his drifters made a positive return of 5p in the £ whereas his shorteners lost 20p in the £ (to BSP). Sticking with those runners that have shortened in price, when they started favourite they broke even. When they were not favourite losses have been 27p in the £.

Lastly in this piece, I want to focus on Irish maestro Willie Mullins as there are a few useful titbits when it comes to his stats. There are three powerful stats of which we ought to be aware:

1. Any Mullins drifter at the Cheltenham Festival is not a good sign. 100 horses have drifted from OS to SP at the March showpiece of which only 11 won (SR 11%) for a BSP loss of £43.36 (ROI -43.4%).

2. Don’t be lured in by bigger-priced runners from Mullins ‘being backed’. Horses that shortened in price from an OS of 18/1 or bigger are 0 from 54.

3. When one of Mullins' horses shortens in price from OS to SP take note of the jockey. The table below shows why we want Paul Townend on board:

 

**

This article has highlighted some interesting patterns in terms of how the market moves during that brief period between the opening show and the start of the race. I think some of the trainer data for Messrs Henderson, Nicholls, Skelton, Murphy and Mullins could prove really useful and help to point us in the right direction when contemplating the timing / placing of our bets.

- DR

 

2025 Denman Chase Trends

Staged at Newbury racecourse the Betfair-sponsored Denman Chase is a Grade Two race that is run in February each year.

First run in 2000, the Denman Chase is always a hotly-contested race that is run over a trip of 3 miles, and over the years has provided plenty of clues ahead of the Cheltenham Gold Cup. Four horses have won this race before going onto land the Cheltenham Gold Cup that same season – Kauto Star (2007), Denman (2008), Coneygree (2015) & Native River (2018).

In 2017 – Native River won the Denman Chase before running third in the Gold Cup, but in 2018 he went one better after landing both the Denman Chase and the Cheltenham Gold Cup.

The race was upgraded to Listed status in 2002 and then promoted further in 2003 to a Grade Two – which it remains at today.

The contest was originally sponsored by the Aon Group, but in 2012 leading betting exchange – Betfair – took over the sponsorship mantle, and in the process also renamed the race the ‘Denman Chase’ in honour of the 2008 winner. With William Hill taking over the sponsorship duties in 2025.

Since 2000 leading National Hunt trainer – Paul Nicholls – has won the race 10 times - including again in 2021 when his Secret Investor won for jockey Bryony Frost.

Last year in 2024, the Nicky Henderson-trained Shishkin won the race under jockey Nico De Boinville. That was Henderson's third winner in the race.

Here at GeeGeez, we look back at recent winners of the race and highlight the key stats ahead of the 2025 renewal – this year staged on Saturday 8th February.

Recent Denman Chase Winners

2024 - Shishkin (8/11 fav)
2023 – Zanza (16/1)
2022 – Eldorado Allen (6/1)
2021 - Secret Investor (14/1)
2020 – Native River (2/5 fav)
2019 – Clan Des Obeaux (2/5 fav)
2018 – Native River (8/11)
2017 – Native River (11/10)
2016 - Houblon des Obeaux (3/1)
2015 – Coneygree (15/8 fav)
2014 – Harry Topper (7/2)
2013 – Silviniaco Conti (8/11 fav)
2012 – Long Run (4/7 fav)
2011 – Noland (13/2)
2010 – Tricky Trickster (8/1)
2009 – Madison du Berlais (12/1)
2008 – Denman (1/4 fav)
2007 – Kauto Star (2/9 fav)

Denman Chase Trends

17/21 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
17/21 – Rated 150+
17/21 – Aged 9 or younger
16/21 – Had won at least 4 times over fences (UK) before
16/21 – Placed favourites
16/21 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
15/21 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
13/21 – Aged 8 or younger
12/21 – Had won over fences at Newbury before
11/21 – Winners that went onto race in that season’s Gold Cup (4 winners)
12/21 – Raced at either Cheltenham or Kempton last time out
9/21 – Winning favourites
9/21 – Irish bred
8/21 – Won last time out
8/21 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (10 wins in total)
7/21 – French bred
6/21 – Winning distance – ¾ length or less
5/21 – Returned a double-figure price
4/21 – Winners that went onto win the Gold Cup (Coneygree, Denman, Kauto Star & Native River)
4/21 – Trained by the Tizzard yard
2/21 – Won by the Pipe stable
2/21 – Won by trainer Nicky Henderson
7 of the last 18 winners were aged 7 years-old
Just one winner aged 11+ since 2000
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 9/2

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When NH Trainers run two in the same race

Back in July 2021 I shared some research connected with UK flat trainers when they saddled two runners in the same race (which you can read here), writes Dave Renham. In this article I will do likewise with UK National Hunt trainers. Clearly, there are occasions when trainers saddle three or more runners in a race but, to make the research and writing process easier, for this offering I will once more focus on exactly two runners saddled.

It is likely that in the past some punters have been lured by the prices on two runners from the same stable: if one is 3/1 and the other 14/1 the chances are the focus will be on the more fancied runner of the pair. I, for one, have been guilty of this before.

The data in this analysis has been taken from UK National Hunt races between January 1st 2016 and December 31st 2024. All profit and loss figures have been calculated to Betfair Starting Price less commission. For the shorter priced horse of the pair, I will call this the “first string”, the bigger priced runner will be known as the “second string”.

Overall trainer performance when running two in the same race

Let me first look at trainers who have had two or more runners in the same race on at least 100 occasions (hence at least 200 runners overall). There have been 28 trainers that qualify in the study period using that stipulation:

 

Below are the combined results of all runners for each trainer (i.e. both first and second string horses). The trainers are listed in alphabetical order:

 

 

Not surprisingly, just four of the 28 trainers show a profit when looking at both runners combined. It is unlikely that backing both runners for every trainer in every race is going to make a profit long term as the overall stats clearly show. Indeed, the four in profit owe that accolade to some huge prices going in.

Let us see what happens when we break the data down and compare trainer win strike rates between first and second string runners. The plan is not to compare the raw win percentages with each other, but to add up the winners for each of the two market ranks and work out what percentage of all the winners came from the trainer’s first string (shorter priced runners) and what percentage came from the second string (longer priced runners).

In other words, if we use Donald McCain as an example, he has had 60 winners when running two horses in the same race, of which 45 were his first string runners (75%); 15 winners came from his second string runners (25%).

To show this comparison for each trainer I have split their data into four separate graphs, so as not to overcrowd the pictorial evidence. The orange bar represents first string runners, the blue bar is for second string.

 

 

As the graphs show, the stats vary greatly from trainer to trainer. For example, Nigel Twiston-Davies has two percentages that are close together (57.1% and 42.9%) having done particularly well with second strings, whereas Phil Kirby’s figures are poles apart (95.8% and 4.2%). Overall, when combining all 28 trainers, 75.7% of the winners have come from their first string entries, 24.3% from their second string. These figures are almost a carbon copy of those calculated in the flat trainer article back in 2021.

 

Trainer performance with first string runners

Eight trainers have made a profit with their first string runners and their figures, ordered by BSP profit, are shown in the table below:

 

 

Caution is advised regarding the profit figure for Christian Williams as he had BSP winners equating to 165/1 and 179/1, and yes, they were his first string runners despite the high prices! Chris Gordon in contrast has not had any big-priced winners and overall, his record with first string runners is excellent. If you restrict Gordon’s first string runners to those priced in single figures (at BSP) his record reads a highly impressive 29 wins from 82 (SR 35.4%) for a profit of £33.90 (ROI +41.3%).

Paul Nicholls has had over 400 first choice runners in this double-handed context, and his biggest priced first string winner was BSP 13.0 (12/1). Hence his bottom line has not been skewed by numerous scorers at very big odds. If we look at all his first string runners priced BSP 13.0 or less he has secured a healthy profit of £90.23 (ROI +27.2%) from 332 qualifiers. If we look at the Nicholls profit year on year with this subset of runners we see the following:

 

 

2021 was the year that produced over half of the profit but even taking that out of the equation the performance and consistency has been excellent. Over the nine years of study, seven have shown a profit.

Phil Kirby’s figures are also not badly skewed by horses winning at big prices. Sticking to a price cap of BSP 13.0 or shorter, Kirby has secured 20 winners from 68 qualifiers (SR 29.4%) for a profit of £24.02 (ROI +35.3%).

Nicky Henderson did not secure an overall profit with his first-string runners but the jockey booking seems to have made a difference. When Nico de Boinville has been riding the Henderson first string, the results read 49 wins from 224 (SR 21.9%) for a profit of £21.67 (ROI +9.7%). When any other jockey has been on board the Henderson figures read 46 from 241 (SR 19.1%) for a loss of £74.80 (ROI -31%).

Dan Skelton is a trainer who has performed extremely well over the past few seasons across the entire National Hunt sphere, but when we focus on his first string runners (of two) in chases his stats make very poor reading. From 95 qualifiers only 11 won (SR 11.6%) for hefty losses of £46.44 (ROI -48.9%).

Trainer performance with second string runners

Five trainers have produced a BSP profit with their second-string runners. Clearly big prices have made the difference here with all strike rates under 8%:

 

 

As profits go these should largely be taken with a pinch of salt, but I wanted to share them all the same.

It may be more useful to share a list of trainers with a very poor record with their second string runners, so below are those trainers with the worst returns across the nine year review period:

 

 

Based on these figures it seems sensible to all but rule out second string runners from trainers in the above table.

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One trainer whose data has not been shared as yet is Irish maestro Willie Mullins, simply due to him not quite saddling enough UK NH runners to make the cut. For the record his figures for both first and second strings are good with blind profits to BSP for both. His first string runners have secured returns of 26p in the £, his second string runners 28p in the £.

Harry Fry is another trainer who had less than 200 runners of this type overall, but his first string made a blind profit. Indeed, when focusing on these first string runners using the earlier price stipulation of BSP 13.0 or less, Fry has secured 14 wins from 48 (SR 29.2%) for a profit of £26.31 (ROI +54.8%).

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Trainer statistics are used by many punters when contemplating a bet. These stats come in different forms such as course stats, recent form stats (e.g. last 14 days), favourite stats, horses on debut, etc. The ones I have shared in this article generally fly under the radar but, hopefully, you have found them useful for either pinpointing possible value bets or, just as importantly, helping to avoid poor value ones. Unsurprisingly, given the overall stats uncovered in this article, the evidence points firmly towards focusing most attention on the shorter priced first string runners.

- DR

2024 Challow Hurdle Trends

The Challow Novices’ Hurdle is a Grade One event that is run over a trip of 2m4f at Newbury racecourse.

Sponsored by Coral, the contest has been won by some promising sorts over the years, including Wichita Lineman, Diamond Harry, Reve De Sivola, Fingal Bay, Taquin du Seuil, while in more recent years the 2022 King George Chase winner Bravemansgame (2020) & Stage Star (2021) have won the race.

While in 2022 we saw the exciting Paul Nicholls-trained Hermes Allen romp to victory and Captain Teague take to pot in 2023 - meaning Paul Nicholl has won the last four runnings and six in total. He could have Regent's Stroll flying the Ditcheat flag this year.

We've also seen 9 of the last 14 market leaders win the race while trainers Paul Nicholls, Nick Williams and Jonjo O’Neill have won the race 9 times between them since 2006.

Here at Geegeez, we give you all the key stats ahead of the 2024 renewal - this year run on Saturday 28th December 2024.

Recent Challow Hurdle Winners

2023 - CAPTAIN TEAGUE (2/1 fav)
2022 - HERMES ALLEN (11/10 fav)
2021 – STAGE STAR (5/4 fav)
2020 - BRAVEMANSGAME (5/2 jfav)
2019 – THYME HILL (4/6 fav)
2018 – CHAMP (Evs fav)
2017 – POETIC RHYTHM (15/8 fav)
2016 – MESSIRE DES OBEAUX (11/4)
2015 – BARTERS HILL (4/11 fav)
2014 – PARLOUR GAMES (6/1)
2013 – CAPTAIN CUTTER (8/1)
2012 – TAQUIN DU SEUIL (13/8 fav)
2011 – FINGAL BAY (1/4 fav)
2010 – BACKSPIN (5/1)
2009 – REVE DE SIVOLA (15/8)
2008 – DIAMOND HARRY (4/6 fav)
2007 – SOUFFLUER (7/1)
2006 – WICHITA LINEMAN (11/4)

Key Challow Hurdle Trends

18/18 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
18/18 – Had raced in the last 8 weeks
18/18 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
18/18 – Had won no more than 3 times over hurdles before
16/18 – Had raced in the last 6 weeks
15/18 – Favourites that finished in the top 3
14/18 – Had won over 2m4f or further (hurdles) before
13/18 – Won last time out
13/18 – Won between 2-3 times over hurdles before
11/18 – Had won a Grade 2 Hurdle race before
11/18 – Winning favourites (7 of the last 8)
10/18 – Aged 5 years-old
9/18 – Irish bred
6/18 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (last 4 winners)
3/18 – Trained by Jonjo O’Neill
2/18 – Ridden by Daryl Jacob
The average winning SP in the last 18 runnings is 5/2

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2024 King George VI Chase Trends

Staged each year on at Christmas on Boxing Day at Kempton racecourse, (Tuesday, 26th December) the King George VI Chase is the highlight contest on the festive racing calendar.

With star names like Desert Orchid, One Man and, more recently, Kauto Star, who won the King George Chase a staggering five times, amongst the household names to land this decent pot then the 3m Grade One race never fails to attract the best longer distance chasers in training, while it’s also seen as a good guide to that season’s Cheltenham Gold Cup.

Trainer Paul Nicholls has won the King George VI Chase a remarkable 13 times and is sure to have a few big chances again in 2024. While last year we saw a dramatic end with Hewick coming with a storming late run to get up in the cloding stages for Ireland.

We take a look back at recent winners and highlight the key stats to take into the 2024 renewal – this year run on Boxing Day, Thursday Dec 26th - Can trainer Paul Nicholls win the race for a 14th time?

Past King George VI Chase Winners

2023 - Hewick (12/1)
2022 - Bravemansgame (11/4)
2021 – Tornado Flyer (28/1)
2020 - Frodon (20/1)
2019 - Clan Des Obeaux (11/2)
2018 – Clan Des Obeaux (12/1)
2017 – Might Bite (6/4 fav)
2016 – Thistlecrack (11/10 fav)
2015 – Cue Card (9/2)
2014 - Silviniaco Conti (15/8 fav)
2013 – Silviniaco Conti (7/2)
2012 – Long Run (15/8 fav)
2011 – Kauto Star (3/1)
2010 – Long Run (9/2)
2009 – Kauto Star (8/13 fav)
2008 – Kauto Star (10/11 fav)
2007 – Kauto Star (4/6 fav)
2006 – Kauto Star (8/13 fav)
2005 – Kicking King (11/8 fav)
2004 – Kicking King (3/1 fav)
2003 – Edredon Bleu (25/1)
2002 – Best Mate (11/8 fav)

Note: The 2005 renewal was staged at Sandown Park

King George VI Chase Trends

20/22 – French (14) or Irish bred (6)
18/22 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
18/22 – Had won a Grade One chase before
18/22 – Had won over 3m or further (fences) before
18/22 – Aged 8 or younger
17/22 – Finished in the top three last time out
17/22 – Placed favourites
16/22 – Returned 9/2 or shorter in the betting
16/22 – Officially rated 167 or higher
13/22 – Had won a race over fences at Kempton before
12/22 – Won last time out
11/22 – Winning favourites
11/22 – Aged 6 or 7 years-old
11/22 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (13 times in all)
10/22– Ran in the Betfair Chase (Haydock) last time out
8/22 – Won by a previous winner of the race
4/22 – Won by an Irish-based yard (only 5 in the last 38 runnings)
Paul Nicholls, the Tizzard yard and Nicky Henderson have trained 16 of the last 18 winners between them (11 Nicholls, 2 Tizzard, 3 Henderson)
Trainer Willie Mullins has only won the race twice (2021 Tornado Flyer and 2001 Florida Pearl)
The average winning SP in the last 22 years is 6/1

 

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2024 Tingle Creek Chase Trends

Run over 2m the Betfair-sponsored Tingle Creek Chase will be staged this year at Sandown Park racecourse on 3rd December and is always seen as a good guide to the Queen Mother Champion Chase run at the Cheltenham Festival later in the season – with Master Minded (2008), Moscow Flyer (2004), Sprinter Sacre (2012), Sire de Grugy (2013), Dodging Bullets (2014) and Altior (2018) the last horses to do the Tingle Creek/Champion Chase double in the same season.

Paul Nicholls has won the Tingle Creek a massive 12 times, while in 2023 the Nicky Henderson-trained Jonbon won the prize.

Here at Geegeez, we take a look back at recent winners and gives you the key Tingle Creek trends to look out for ahead of the 2024 renewal - run on Saturday 7th December.

Recent Tingle Creek Winners

2023 - JONBON (30/100 fav)
2022 – EDWARDSTONE (5/1)
2021 – GREANETEEN (12/1)
2020 - POLITOLOGUE (11/8 fav)
2019 – DEFI DU SEUIL (2/1 fav)
2018 – ALTIOR (8/13 fav)
2017 – POLITOLOGUE (7/2)
2016 – UN DE SCEAUX (5/4 fav)
2015 – SIRE DE GRUGY (10/3)
2014 – DODGING BULLETS (9/1)
2013 – SIRE DE GRUGY (7/4 jfav)
2012 – SPRINTER SACRE (4/11 fav)
2011 – SIZING EUROPE (11/8 fav)
2010 – MASTER MINDED (10/11 fav)
2009 – TWIST MAGIC (9/4)
2008 – MASTER MINDED (4/7 fav)
2007 – TWIST MAGIC (5/1)
2006 – KAUTO STAR (4/9 fav)
2005 – KAUTO STAR (5/2 jfav)
2004 – MOSCOW FLYER (2/1)
2003 – MOSCOW FLYER (6/4 fav)
2002 – CENKOS (6/1)

Tingle Creek Chase Trends

21/22 – Aged 9 or younger
20/22 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
19/22 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
19/22 – Had won a Grade One chase before
18/22 – Had won at least 4 times over fences before
17/22 – Aged between 5-8 years-old
16/22 – Placed favourites
16/22 – French bred
16/22 – Officially rated 165 or higher
15/22 – Returned 5/2 or shorter in the betting
14/22 – Winning distance – 3 lengths or more
14/22 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
14/22 – Had won a chase race at Sandown before
14/22 – Winning favourites (2 joint)
13/22 – Won last time out
11/22 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (12 wins in total)
6/22 - Won by a past winner
6/22 – Won the Queen Mother Champion Chase (Altior, Dodging Bullets, Sire de Grugy, Sprinter Sacre – Master Minded & Moscow Flyer) at the Cheltenham Festival later that season
The average winning SP in the last 22 years is 11/4

Note: The 2010 renewal was staged at Cheltenham

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Monday Musings: Superpowers

 

What a lovely Saturday afternoon, writes Tony Stafford. Sky Sports Racing – now on my Now TV sports package, if you please – had all three UK cards. Thus, there was a constant flow of high-class jumping from Newcastle, Doncaster and, above all, Newbury suggesting that all may not be quite so gloomy where our sport is concerned.

Alex Hammond, Mick Fitzgerald and Jamie Lynch provide a refreshing balance of experience, insight and regional accent and they were in their element, especially Mick, as his old boss Nicky Henderson was on one of his very good days. The former stable number one showed he keeps a keen, close acquaintanceship.

Basically, he knows where the Seven Barrows horses go to work at home or, at important times, away and even, no doubt, what they had for breakfast.

The Henderson highlight, of course, was super-sub Sir Gino, nimbly stepping in after his work with Constitution Hill at Newbury suggested he might have made up a chunk of the 23lb that officially separated them in the BHA handicap.

Lameness was the reason for the former (2023) Champion Hurdle winner’s absence from Saturday’s Fighting Fifth Hurdle at Newcastle. It could turn out in time that Henderson might not have needed to search so intently for a reason <lame excuse?> to explain the gallop’s outcome.

Saturday’s field seemed to contain only one horse capable of challenging the previously unbeaten Henderson four-year-old. That was Mullins’ superbly bred Mystical Power, result of a union between perennial (but deceased) champion flat-race stallion Galileo and close-to unbeatable hurdling mare Annie Power, one of the stars of Willie Mullins’ long career.

Mystical Power was never going in a race where a couple of outsiders made the pace. Nico de Boinville moved Sir Gino out to challenge entering the straight and when he asked him to extend, the gelding did so thrillingly, winning by an ever-widening eight lengths from five-time winner (from eight runs) Lump Sum. It was Nicky’s eighth victory in the race.

Sir Gino started out with an unexpected debut win in France and, once “lifted” from under Harold Kirk’s and Mullins’ noses, went unbeaten last season, missing the Triumph Hurdle, but sorting out the Triumph runner-up, Mullins’ Kargese, by almost four lengths at Aintree. Constitution Hill’s performances still stretch far into the distance where even the best of the rest is concerned, but Sir Gino could just be getting a good deal closer, and his stablemate clearly hasn’t been as easy to train of late.

Until I checked on Sunday morning, I had no idea of Willie Mullins’ age or when he started his training career. It was a shock to see he’s 68 years old and took out his first licence 36 years ago!

That still makes him a novice compared with the six-years-older Henderson, who began training ten years earlier. The pair have been at the top in their respective countries for decades and the most pugnacious of opponents at every Cheltenham Festival meeting since Mullins got into his stride.

Paul Nicholls began as a trainer three years after Mullins, but with the credibility from his time as a jockey when he won two consecutive runnings of the then Hennessy Gold Cup on Broadheath and Playschool in 1986/87 for David Barons. How he ever managed 10st 5lb to ride Broadheath I can’t fathom, but then, when Ned Sangster can ride in amateur riders’ races on the flat at under 10 stone, I suppose anything is possible! Don’t turn sideways Ned, I won’t be able to see you!

Nicholls didn’t take long showing he had gone through a thorough apprenticeship. Towards the end of the Martin Pipe superiority after the turn of the century, when Pipe won 15 titles, Nicholls got ever closer, finally ending that one-sided era with a first triumph on a memorable final day at Sandown in April 2006.

Over the next 17 years, he and Henderson dominated, albeit heavily in Nicholls’s favour, 14 to four, with legends like Kauto Star and Denman to fuel the lavish prizemoney that decides the title. Henderson had collected twice in the 1980’s, so he has six.

Then, last April, it became evident that Willie Mullins, not content with 17 consecutive championships at home, was intent on dislodging either Nicholls or Paul’s former assistant Dan Skelton, and he duly achieved it with something to spare.

The statistics around this top three – Henderson, Nicholls and Mullins – are collectively most impressive with only Skelton in the UK likely to beat the trio to the top spot. Skelton’s wonderful training complex near Alcester, was built and designed on father Nick’s business acumen and Olympic Gold medal riding skills over many years.

Both Dan and younger brother Harry, already a champion jump jockey and potentially going close to another title this season, had their initial racing experience in Nicholls yard, as did emerging trainer Harry Derham.

In Ireland, Gordon Elliott has withstood what many thought would be a career-ending faux-pas a few years ago to come back even bigger and stronger.

Elliott’s stats are remarkable. After Saturday’s racing, in the season from May, Gordon had run 232 individual horses in 633 races, winning 86 and accruing €1,822k. Mullins, with 78 fewer horses (154) and from under half the runs, has 65 wins for €1,326k.

Skelton meanwhile in the UK has gone off at a fast pace, returning to getting as many wins as possible at the “phoney” first half of the season (May to October) before the real stuff begins. His stats are not far short of Elliott’s. He has run 196 horses for 484 runs, 96 wins and £1,247k. Nicholls has 47 wins and £845k from 114 horses and 194 runs. Slow-starting Henderson has 29 wins and £496k from 84 horses and 128 runs.

Henderson was at Newbury on Saturday, saddling two winners, both making their seasonal comeback. Nicholls, too, was content to let his Coral (ex-Hennessy) Gold Cup contender Kandoo Kid go to Newbury without a previous run this autumn and his judgment and that of rider Harry Cobden proved correct as he won comfortably from the favourite, Nigel Twiston-Davies’ Broadway Boy. Here the inherent dangers of punditry came to the fore, one of the trio (Mr Lynch I believe) suggesting the Coral Gold Cup rarely goes to a horse first time out. It did this time.

This was a fourth training win in the race to go with those almost four decades ago riding successes. We all remember Denman’s duo – the only thing we might have forgotten was that they were respectively 17 and 15 years ago!

It’s not only Nicholls whose former assistants rise to a high level after taking their leave. Henderson saw Tom Symonds, a former joint assistant with Ben Pauling, enjoying a prestige win with Navajo Indy in the Gerry Feilden Hurdle. The runner-up there, the former Oliver Sherwood-trained mare Queens Gamble, now with Harry Derham along with her former handler, was a good second first time out for a year, and she is the one I would take from the entire Newbury card.

Talking of Pauling, while his Henrys Friend was only fifth in the big race, he would have been much closer I’m sure had he not punctuated his otherwise great jumping round with a shattering mistake halfway down the back straight second time around. He was also making his return to action and should not be missed next time.

The previous afternoon at Newbury, Pauling showed his hand with another young chaser who could be winning the Coral Gold Cup next year. Carrying Harry Redknapp’s colours, The Jukebox Man made an exhilarating first run over fences in the John Francome Novices Chase, sponsored by Corals. Ben brought him along carefully through his bumper and hurdles seasons and he is now ready to reveal his true potential as a chaser.

I mentioned above the numerical strength of Elliott and Mullins in Ireland. Gordon had 17 runners on the Saturday Fairyhouse card but it wasn’t until the day’s final race, the bumper, that he had a winner. Most punters would have been expecting Ma Jacks Hill, a €310k acquisition for Giggingstown House Stud to land 4/5 favouritism, but he was only third to Elliott’s other runner, William Butler, a 25/1 shot. I hope Sir Mark Prescott’s assistant noticed it running and had a fiver on it!

Talking of expensive buys, the Sir Alex Ferguson colours had their first airing on the Nicholls-trained €740k acquisition Coldwell Potter at Carlisle yesterday. He and Harry Cobden treated the crowd to an exhibition from the front and won easily. That Nicholls fellow keeps persuading the boys to fork out the money. He won’t get back on top otherwise.

- TS

 

2024 Ladbrokes Champion Chase Trends

Staged at Down Royal racecourse in Ireland this Saturday’s (2nd November 2024) Ladbrokes Champion Chase (formerly the JNwine.com Chase) always attracts some of the best chasers from both England and Ireland.

Run over 3m the Grade 1 contest has been won by greats such as Kauto Star, Beef Or Salmon, Looks Like Trouble and Florida Pearl in the past.

With top UK trainer Paul Nicholls winning 5 of the last 17 renewals then anything he sends across the Irish Sea should be respected, while the powerful Gordon Elliott camp have also saddled four of the last 9 winners.

Elliott and Nicholls are the joint-winning trainers - both with five successes.

While it's a race the Gigginstown House Stud horses have done very well in recently - they've won the race seven times since 2013.

Here at GEEGEEZ.co.uk we are on hand with all the key stats head of the 2024 renewal – this year run on Saturday 2nd November 2024

Recent Ladbrokes Champion Chase Winners

2023 - GERRI COLOMBE (4/7 fav)
2022 - ENVOI ALLEN (7/2)
2021 - FRODON (3/1)
2020 - THE STORYTELLER (9/2)
2019 – ROAD TO RESPECT (5/2)
2018 – ROAD TO RESPECT (6/4 fav)
2017 – OUTLANDER (16/1)
2016 – VALSEUR LIDO (2/1 fav)
2015 – DON COSSACK (2/11 fav)
2014 ROAD TO RICHES (9/2)
2013 – ROI du MEE (12/1)
2012 – KAUTO STONE (4/1)
2011 – QUITO de la ROQUE (11/4 fav)
2010 – KAUTO STAR (4/7 fav)
2009 – THE LISTENER (7/1)
2008 – KAUTO STAR (2/5 fav)
2007 – TARANIS (10/11 fav)
2006 – BEEF OR SALMON (11/4)
2005 – No Race
2004 – BEEF OR SALMON (Evs)
2003 – GLENELLY GALE (7/1)
2002 – MORE THAN A STROLL (20/1)
2001 – FOXCHAPEL KING (4/1)

Ladbrokes Champion Chase Betting Trends

20/22 – Had won at least a Grade 2 Chase before
18/22 – Had won over at least 3m over fences before
17/22 – Had won at least 5 times over fences before
16/22 – Aged 8 or older
16/22 – Returned 9/2 or shorter in the betting
15/22 – Had won a Grade 1 Chase before
14/22 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
13/22 – Winning distance 2 ½ lengths or more
12/22 – Having their first run of the season
11/22 – Had run at Down Royal before
10/22 – Winning favourites
8/22 – Won by a Gigginstown House Stud-owned horse (7 winners since 2013)
7/22 – Won their last race
6/22– Raced at Aintree last time out
5/22 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
5/22 – Trained by Gordon Elliott (4 of the last 9)
4/22 – Raced at Limerick last time out
Henry De Bromhead has won 2 of the last 7
The last 13 winners aged 9 or younger
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 4/1

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Price Movement in NH Racing Markets

In a recent article I compared the Early Morning Odds of horses (EMO) with their Opening Show odds (OS) and their final Industry Starting Price (SP) for UK Flat racing, writes Dave Renham. In this piece I will revisit the idea but the focus now is on UK National Hunt racing. Data has been taken from 1st January 2021 to 30th September 2024. How similar will the patterns be? Let’s take a look...

Strike rates by market movement profile

To begin with let's make the process easier by using abbreviations for the different price movements. So, for horses that shorten in price I will use the abbreviation ‘S’; for horses that remain the same price I will use ‘R’; for those that drift in price (lengthen) I will use the abbreviation ‘D’.

There are nine possible combinations in terms of price movement within these two timeframes (EMO to OS, and OS to SP). Below is a graph showing the percentage of runners for each price movement combination.

 

 

As you would expect the bar chart is similar to that which we saw when analysing flat data. The D/D group made up roughly a quarter of all runners and is comfortably the most likely pattern to be seen of the nine.

Performance Metrics by market movement profile

Now that we know how likely each combination is to occur we can examine the combinations in more detail by breaking down their performance in terms of strike rate, profitability, ROI% and A/E indices:

 

 

Two of the three combinations where a drift occurred between EMO and SP, D/D and R/D, produced by far the worst figures across all the metrics (SR%, ROI% and A/E indices). In fact, both combos would have lost you significant money if betting to BSP. The D/D group would have lost you 13p in the £, the R/D group lost a whopping 22p in the £. To put this into perspective if you simply backed all NH runners in every race over this time frame you would have lost just under 6p in the £ betting to Betfair SP.

Shorten / Shorten (S/S) Runners

The best figures came from the horses that shortened in price in both time frames – the S/S group. It makes sense to explore the S/S group in more detail given they have produced the best overall performance. I want to start by breaking the S/S results down by National Hunt Race Type. I will look at A/E indices first:

 

 

As can be seen the figures for chases and hurdles are virtually identical, but there is a steep drop off down to the A/E index for NH Flat races (also called bumpers). On to the Return on Investment percentages (ROI%) now to see what they show. The ROI%s are based onto Industry Starting Price returns:

 

 

There is positive correlation between the A/E indices and the ROI% figures at SP, with losses far greater for NH Flat runners who have the S/S profile. This is reflected at Betfair SP, too, with chase and hurdle qualifiers losing 4p in the £, NH Flat qualifiers more than 11p from every pound. Why this is the case is probably because NH Flat races tend to be made up of relatively unexposed horses. Hence, some horses will be supported in the betting based on what they might have shown away from the racetrack. Others will be backed solely due the trainer or the owner rather than the form or inherent ability of the individual horse in question. Hence punters and bookmakers are not always able to base their opinion on cold hard facts in these bumper races.

Sticking with the S/S group let me share how well these runners have performed in terms of Class of Race. Here are the full splits (there were only a handful of Class 6 events, hence they have been lumped together with the Class 5 stats):

 

 

The figures suggest that the S/S group has performed less well at either end of the class spectrum. Qualifiers from both Classes 2 and 3 made blind profits to BSP which is perhaps no surprise given their high A/E indices.

If we focus on the Class 1 races and look at the subset of Grade 1 to Grade 3 races the figures for the S/S group are poor – 66 wins from 511 qualifiers (SR 12.9%) for a loss to SP of £155.56 (ROI –30.4%). The A/E index stands at a lowly 0.75 and even to BSP losses were steep at £137.59 (ROI –26.9%). Horses that are constantly backed through the day, and then again late on, do not look the safest betting propositions in these Graded contests.

My next port of call was to look at the A/E indices of the S/S group of runners in terms of what odds they were priced up first in the morning – their ‘EMO’. Here is a graphical representation of those data:

 

 

Essentially this data is telling us that the for the S/S group the shorter the price the better in terms of ‘value’. The 17.0 to 23.0 and the 26.0+ groups are slightly out of kilter, but overall, it looks like horses priced 4.5 (7/2) or shorter early doors are the ones to focus on. Indeed, backing all horses from this shorter price EMO subset (1.01–4.5) would have lost you only 1p for every £1 staked to BSP.

Price movement by trainer

I want now to examine some trainer data, starting with horses that shortened in price from EMO to OS, i.e. the S/S, S/R and S/D groups. To begin with I would like to share some trainers with percentage of runners split for each of these groups. These are the handlers with the highest percentage of runners that match the S/S profile, listed along with the S/R and S/D percentages also:

 

 

Melanie Rowley tops the list with nearly 49% of her runners that shortened between EMO and OS continuing to shorten from OS to SP. To give some context the average percentage of runners’ figure for ALL trainers for the S/S profile is 35%. However, in Rowley's case, it did not lead to a profitable outcome; in fact, quite the opposite – one would have lost 44p in the £ backing all her S/S runners to SP; and it was still a 40p in the £ loss to BSP.

Profitable S/S trainers

There were, however, six trainers in the list who did make a profit to SP with these well-backed runners. The six were Henry Daly, Ben Pauling, David Pipe, Sandy Thomson, Tim Vaughan and Mark Walford. Below is a table containing all trainers who made blind profits with their S/S group of runners, listed alphabetically:

 

 

If only we could have predicted which of their horses were going to have the S/S pattern, then we could have backed them at their Early Price and made even more impressive profits. Nevertheless, none of the trainers in the above list had winners at huge prices that skewed their bottom lines so they look a group who know when they've got a live one.

A dozen trainers made a blind profit including one of the most powerful stables in the country, that of Paul Nicholls. When the Ditcheat yard's horses have shortened from EMO to OS and again from OS to SP, they have produced an outstanding strike rate of over 35% and returned more 8p in the £ profit. What is interesting is that only 28% of the Nicholls runners that shortened in price between EMO and OS then continued to shorten to SP, whereas 48% of them drifted in that final period. It is also interesting that this subset of runners (the S/D group) also performed well with 123 going on to win from 401 runners (SR 30.7%) for an SP profit of £25.57 (ROI +6.4%). To BSP this improves to +£62.65 (ROI +15.6%).

Overall, you could have made a healthy profit to BSP by simply backing ALL Nicholls runners that had shortened in price from EMO to OS.

D/D Trainers

It is time now to briefly look at some D/D data for trainers. I want to focus on horses that had Early Morning Odds of 10.00 (9/1) or shorter to avoid skewed results due to big–priced winners. Obviously, the strike rates of trainers with horses that drift from EMO to OS and then continue to drift to SP are not going to be that impressive. Below is a table of the top 15 trainers with the D/D profile in terms of strike rate:

 

 

No surprise that only three trainers have made a profit to SP, but that figure rises to nine at BSP. Of the trainers in that table, Paul Nicholls has seen significant losses with his D/D runners. They look worth swerving.

At the other end of the scale here are the trainers with the lowest strike rates from their D/D runners with their EMO 10.00 (9/1) or shorter:

 

 

It would make sense with this group of trainers to, unless you are a layer, ignore their horses if they have drifted from EMO to OS and are starting to drift again from their OS price as we near the ‘off’.

For the record horses priced up early at 10.00 (9/1) or bigger that show the D/D profile have won just 1.6% of their races (228 wins from 14220 qualifiers) for losses to SP of £6949 (ROI –48.5%). Losses are obviously less steep when looking at BSP returns but losses are still over 21% (21p in the £).

Finally, let me share one significant stat from the most influential NH owner, JP McManus. When his runners are popular in the market and show the S/S profile they have secured a 29% strike rate and returns of 6p in the £ to SP. His runners showing the D/D profile, however, perform poorly hitting a strike rate of 8.7% with SP losses of 30p in the £.

Market Movement is an integral part of the betting picture and I hope this article has provided some useful pointers for the National Hunt season which is just about to click into top gear.

- DR

Monday Musings: Pauling’s Triple Salvo

It’s tough to sneak into the leading trainers’ groupings pretty much anywhere in the world, writes Tony Stafford.  In the UK and Ireland, the same few names finish atop both the flat and jumps tables year on year, and on the flat, certainly, it takes an upstart, such as George Boughey, and a massive intake of horses and major owners to break into the top ten.

He had 163 horses listed for last year’s campaign which brought tenth place in the table, but ironically fell 33 wins short of the 136 of the previous year. That earlier explosion was the catalyst for the massive increase in George’s string.

In jumping, the top ten have a familiar look about them both in Ireland and the UK. We know it’s Mullins, Elliott and De Bromhead with few recent encroachers making the list in Ireland, although Emmet Mullins has the look of somebody who can be making his way higher up the standings. Helps when, like Gordon Elliott, you train a Grand National winner early on and Mullins (E) did just that with Noble Yeats two years ago.

In the UK, apart from Olly Murphy and Joe Tizzard, neither of whom started from scratch, there’s nobody else. Ollie had considerable family buying power from the start, and Joe took over lock stock of father Colin’s team. Gold Cup wins and the memory of them have kept Joe in the limelight and dad is still around when needed. Plus ca change, plus la meme chose, as the French say.

Higher up, indeed sandwiching now the hitherto private battle at the top between Paul Nicholls and Nicky Henderson, is Dan Skelton, who also needed the start provided financially by show jumping father Nick, and the schooling for several years as assistant to Nicholls.

When brother Harry gets off a winner, and no doubt probably also one that didn’t run up to expectations, he has no hesitation in declaring potential upcoming races for the horse, whether Dan is there or not. This is a family operation par excellence and nicely bedded in now.

The other perennial challengers for the title cannot be there for ever you would think. Nicholls at 61 has so much drive and ambition that one would hardly think he would be reducing his energies towards training jumpers; indeed he has been recruiting at the top end of the market for the partnership headed by the considerably older (even than me!) Sir Alex Ferguson.

Henderson, despite being 73 is similarly unlikely to be withdrawing from the daily grind as long as he has horses of the calibre of Constitution Hill, Shishkin and Jonbon in his care. However well or otherwise that high-profile trio fares at Cheltenham next month, he has the four-year-old Sir Gino as the horse likely to become his eighth winner of the Triumph Hurdle and, if he wins, all the future that status predicts.

Given the depth of competition, especially after a spell where a decent proportion of the better meetings have succumbed to the weather, it must have been rare indeed for a stable outside the top echelon to land a hat-trick of winners on a single Premier Raceday card.

At Ascot on Saturday, Ben Pauling had five horses entered, two in one race. Neither of those got the call, although first string Bad would have done if not on the wrong end of a heads-up, heads-down winning-line dance.

The other three individual representatives all scored, for a combined treble return of 730/1. If Bad, the naughty boy who had his head up at the wrong time, had instead been on better behaviour, the resulting four-timer would have stretched to 4,020/1. All four horses were ridden by Ben Jones, benefiting from the absence through suspension of first jockey Kielan Woods.

Big Ben, he’s well over 6ft, rather than the jockey, and his owners collectively won £78k for linking a novice hurdle, Pic Roc, 11/2, beating a Nicholls hotpot; the Grade 2 Reynoldstown Chase – fast-track often to Cheltenham glory – Henry’s Friend, completing his own hat-trick, 13/2; and a handicap hurdle with Honor Grey, 14/1, a horse coming back from almost two years off. Bad’s race was very tough, too.

In the middle of the time since departing Nicky Henderson’s yard, where he had been joint assistant along with Tom Symonds, Pauling had a couple of campaigns when his horses were afflicted by viral problems. Last season’s tally of 80 wins, almost double his 2021/22 score, suggested that the worrying period was behind him.

Pauling will need another 24 in the remaining nine weeks of the present term to match that, and a couple of hundred grand in prizes to pass the earnings figure. He would have been much nearer it had jump racing not lost so many fixtures to the weather.

Nevertheless, standing in the table on 11th place and with £728k doesn’t have anything near the impact that his all-televised Saturday Ascot trio (and a near-miss) undoubtedly had. Many more people watch ITV racing on a Saturday than the number that assiduously study the Racing Post stats I would imagine, let alone buy the ‘paper every day.

Pauling has invested shrewdly in his future, moving a few years ago to the Naunton Estate, 20 minutes by car from Cheltenham and close to Nigel Twiston-Davies. The Paulings bought a property which adjoined a golf course, and which is now part of the family business.

It necessitated redirecting a couple of the holes to accommodate one of the gallops, but now it’s as though – apart from the stable area looking so spic-and-span – the yard had been there for decades.

You would think, golf-loving owners with runners at the Festival (or not!) might be checking in next month for nine holes and breakfast before making the last leg to Prestbury Park. Saturday was a landmark day in his development The seven entries in the early-closing races might not have the look of potential winners but you can be sure that when the handicap entries come out, he will be one of the UK trainers aiming to make the sort of impact that Dan Skelton has done in recent seasons.

Another former Nicky Henderson assistant was making a mark last week at Sandown, and as he described it, “it was a wonderful day for me in my own little world”.

The self-effacing trainer responsible for those words was Jamie Snowden and, looking again at the list of trainers, he stands 14th coming up towards £600k.

Why his “own little world”? Jamie had just followed winning the Grand Military Gold Cup at Sandown three weeks earlier with Farceur Du Large, over the same course and with the same ex-Irish horse, in the Royal Artillery Gold Cup.

A former soldier, Jamie had tried in vain to win either race since his retirement as an amateur jockey, having claimed both races  from the saddle four times. He might say it was his own little world, but I used to love going to both days’ racing in the old days, always meeting up with my old pal, the late Broderick (The Cad) Munro-Wilson.

He used to ride his own horses in those races and the other two military events that now are offered to professionals, from the 1970’s, and his style of riding always amused the experts in the stands.

Munro-Wilson always loved Sandown and rode loads of winners there. I think he was a territorial rather than a career military member and made his money in the City. He had one unbreakable theory about Sandown: “You jump the Pond (three out) and however well your horse is going, take a pull! Seeing how he got horses to rally up the hill when seemingly having lost their race, with arms, legs, and anything else he could bring to the party moving at full pace, remains in my memory after all these years. As an aside, Sally Randell, who is Fergal O’Brien’s partner and assistant, was one of the very good riders around Sandown and she didn’t start riding in races until she joined the army.

Farceur Du Large was the object – I assume – of some very thoughtful planning. The upper limit for qualification for the two races – both weight-for-age events – is 130, a mark the nine-year-old had dropped to from a peak of 136. He had been owned by Gigginstown House Stud having run unsuccessfully in the Irish and Midlands Grand Nationals along with the Galway Plate. Off since that race, Jamie had him primed for the Grand Military.

Appreciating the drop in class, steady pace and the effective riding of Major Will Kellard, he romped home for RC Syndicate II before reappearing under a partnership of 12 Regiment Royal Artillery and RC Syndicate.

The Rules in my early days, when literally many hundreds of men resplendent in immaculate uniforms would stroll the lawns and enclosures, were strict. Gradually, to qualify as owners, leases became the way to go and it seemed that even anyone who had ever eaten their breakfast egg with soldiers just about qualified.

Whatever the future of Farceur Du Large, he has allowed Jamie Snowden to tick off a large item on his wish list. A winner with You Wear It Well at Cheltenham last year, he hoped for a pre-Festival warm-up win for her at Haydock on Saturday, but she made one bad jump that stopped her in her tracks. That left Coquelicot to pick up 2nd and 6k, making this column’s editor happy that he had made the dash back from a skiing holiday, arriving just in time.

 - TS

Monday Musings: The Sound of Music?

I realise that most people nowadays might not have more than a passing acquaintance with the 1960’s musical, The Sound of Music – although it’s part of the TV schedules every Christmas – but over this weekend I’ve had two of its best-known songs going constantly through my head, writes Tony Stafford.

Firstly, with the Festival now only four weeks away, there’s the title song which begins, well slightly amended: The hills are alive with the sound of Cheltenham.

And secondly and more appropriately for UK trainers: How do you solve a problem like Willie Mullins? (Maria, of course, speeding up problem!).

As ever, one name sticks out as the home antidote to the Willie Mullins epidemic of winners. That’s Nicky Henderson, now the wrong side of 70 but as he showed at Newbury on Saturday, he can see off the Irish maestro when he has the right horse.

Mullins didn’t bother to tackle Shishkin in the Denman Chase – it was left to a couple of Sir Alex Ferguson partnership horses, trained respectively by Paul Nicholls (Hitman) and Dan Skelton (Protektorat) to follow the Ascot-errant and still unforgiven for it Seven Barrows horse home.

From being an outstanding novice hurdler and then chaser, Shishkin has the Mullins-like career tally of 14 wins from 20 and would have made it 15 if he hadn’t lost his concentration and unseated Nico De Boinville at a messy penultimate-fence incident of which he was blameless, in the King George at Kempton on Boxing Day.

Willie kept his big boys at home, preferring instead to run most at the Dublin Festival last weekend. Gold Cup titleholder and next month’s favourite Galopin Des Champs stands firm at the head of the market at around even-money after his Irish Gold Cup win over Fastorslow, but if not quite breathing down his neck, Shishkin as a 9/1 shot doesn’t seem bad value each-way.

Mullins’ challenge for the Betfair Hurdle was a triple one and, of them, a newcomer from his favourite talent pool, ex-French Ocastle Des Mottes made a bookie-terrifying first run for the stable after a lengthy absence, but the 7/2 shot gave no indication on his French form that he had such a chance, running like it to finish only eighth. The other pair, Onlyamatteroftime, one of the best-backed on the day at 8/1, finished 18th while Alvaniy was pulled up.

Resplendent at the front of the race were the J P McManus colours, often connected to Mullins horses, but equally well-accustomed as representing Henderson. They came to the fore approaching the final flight of the Betfair Hurdle in the shape of Iberico Lord, and caught and outpaced Dan Skelton’s L’Eau Du Sud, a 28/1 shot and another in the Ferguson syndicate. They shelled out €740k for bright prospect Caldwell Potter last week. Sir Alex seemed to think they’d got a bargain - I suppose it might seem so compared with the cost of footballers these days or indeed tickets to last night’s Superbowl! Paul Nicholls will be training him.

This was the fifth win in the race for Henderson and considering he doesn’t blatantly lay out horses to benefit their handicap marks in the way that many trainers are obliged to given the state of UK prize money, he still wins stacks of them. Like Iberico Lord, they continue to improve through experience. lberico Lord has now won four of eight races and is sure to be in the field, and may be favourite, for the County Hurdle at Cheltenham. The runner-up will be at the meeting too, Dan Skelton being a wizard at winning Cheltenham handicaps, often under the noses of legions of Irish horses who clearly have been laid out for them.

I was surprised to see, on my latest excursion into the pages of Horses In Training 2023 – I always pick up the new one at Cheltenham – that while J P has 12 horses listed under the Henderson team, that represents only 8% of the trainer’s total of 142.

The next two Sound of Music songs I think apply to the same Nicky Henderson horse, not seen when expected for a warm-up race as he attempts to defend his Champion Hurdle title. Obviously for owner Michael Buckley, Henderson and De Boinville, you could say Constitution Hill is one of Their (My) Favourite Things and has Climb(ed) Every Mountain. As to Edelweiss, I’ve no idea how it fits in, except it’s a white flower and Buckley’s colours feature a white jacket.

I think my quick look through the races already priced up had nine Mullins horses at the head of their respective markets, although Ballyburn and Fact To File both have a second option. If the seven won – never mind any of the later closing races – that would be enough to take him past the century of winners at the Festival from his mark of 94.

Henderson stands 2nd on 73 and can be very hopeful with Royal Gino in the Triumph Hurdle after his easy demolition of Burdett Road in their trial over course and distance last month. The six Mullins juveniles that ran at Leopardstown last weekend have yet to show anything like that form.

Chances are spread over the four days for him, too, with Constitution Hill the banker. I cannot remember any horse being 4/1 on with a month to go in any Cheltenham race. That said, I believe he’s the best we’ve seen, so why not and the bookies are betting non-runner no bet, with no potential injury safely-value to fall back on. All set for Champion Hurdle number ten for Nicky and eat your heart out, Willie and State Man!

After the big two, Nicholls has had 48 Festival winners, but even though his stable is very solid and his jockey Harry Cobden gets the best out of everything he rides, he’s not the force of the Kauto Star/Denman era. Who could be? The old-time trainers used to spread the winners around a lot more when Cheltenham was three days of six races. Best of those was Fulke Walwyn on 40.

Next from today’s vintage comes Gordon Elliott on 37 and he will still be boiling after losing Caldwell Potter and quite a few more of his stars at the private disposal sale of the 29 horses owned by Andy and Gemma Brown, all sold without reserve at Tattersalls Ireland a week ago.

The Browns, who have a young family, have had some success over recent times but also devastating losses through injury and are taking some time out. Elliott did his best to get back his most treasured prospect, bidding €720,000 for Gigginstown House Stud, but Anthony Bromley stayed the pace to set a record for a jumper in training.

Getting back to the roll of Festival honour, of present-day trainers Jonjo O’Neil has 26, Henry de Bromhead 21 and Philip Hobbs 20. From Martin Pipe down – 34 wins – apart from Jonjo O’Neill on 26, it’s a parade of the great old-timers, showing it was never easy to win at this meeting, even more so with the fewer opportunities in their day.

Fred Winter had 28, Fred Rimell 27, Tom Dreaper, Arkle’s handler, equals Jonjo on 26, Vincent O’Brien 23 along with Bob Turnell and, from an earlier era, Ivor Anthony had 22, which bar the War would have been considerably more.

What is interesting is that Mullins has had 65 in the last ten years, which means only Henderson’s career tally matches that. The wonder is that he hasn’t done the brave thing that his peerless predecessor and compatriot Vincent O’Brien did and switch to the flat, although that could be because Ballydoyle hasn’t been available!

Vincent basically targeted the big races over jumps in the UK between 1948 and 1959, before opting out. He won three successive Champion Hurdles (all with Hatton’s Grace, 1949-51); four Cheltenham Gold Cups, three in a row 1948-50, and again in 1953 with different horses and three in the Grand National,  a hat-trick from 1953-5. In the post-War years, the present-day Supreme Novices Hurdle was run in two divisions as the Gloucestershire Hurdle. Between 1952 and 1959 O’Brien won ten!

If he’d have continued until the 1990’s rather than becoming the best flat-race trainer in the world, he would probably have set a target even Willie Mullins would never have managed to match!

  • TS

Monday Musings: The NH Numbers Game

We’re just about into the final third of the 2023-24 jumps season in the UK and Ireland and the concluding bumper at Fairyhouse on Saturday provided an interesting statistic, writes Tony Stafford. Its winner, the debutant Romeo Coolio, ridden by Mr Harry Swan for the Gordon Elliott team, was the trainer’s 155th victory of the domestic campaign.

This, from the once reviled but now it seems fully rehabilitated and still ebullient handler, was Elliott’s 300th individual runner of the season. It brings his prizemoney tally to €3,274k.

Until the last few days, he had been ahead of his great (and hitherto too-great!) rival Willie Mullins in all categories apart from strike-rate. Willie has had to make do so far with 254 individual horses, but his 168 victories (two at Punchestown yesterday) have careered him past Elliott a shade sooner than usual. By the time we get to May, no doubt, Mullins will I’m sure be back in his usual place at the top of the pile with all those big prizes still to be won. He stands on an interim €3,387K.

Two more were added to the first-time Elliott count at Punchestown yesterday and with lots more buys from the pointing and French fields to come, it might even be feasible to expect an end-of-season accumulation of 400, but let’s play safe and suggests it will be 350, as if that wouldn’t be totally unbelievable.

If Gordon were, say, to be content with just a 20-hour waking day – he should manage four hours’ kip surely! - then he could afford to give each of the three hundred a respectable four minutes of his attention – in between driving to the tracks and speaking to the media, not to mention living of course.

No doubt though, as the season has gone on, there has been a regular in-and-out process so that the horses that favoured summer ground and opposition are sent elsewhere until their optimum part of this year comes around. Or even sold.

Even so, you must reckon on a minimum of 200 boxes either at the main yard, or sprinkled around nearby to accommodate the hordes as they prepare for their races.

Planning programmes, making entries, and generally finding alternative objectives when the weather intervenes as has been the case lately, taxes the ingenuity. In some ways it’s easy. “There are five nice races at Punchestown next week,” he might say, adding “Put those ten in that one, that lot in the next” and so on.

Meanwhile Mr Mullins is doing the same thing at his only marginally less horse-swollen base, and hence the pair go head-to-head in almost every novice, conditions race and Graded event in the calendar. I’ve never forgotten Luca Cumani’s words, however. It might have been at the time he lost the Aga Khan’s horses when, in a pique, HH decided to have nothing trained in the UK. Luca always reckoned it was easier to train a lot of horses than a lesser number. You could find the time of day about them, he argued, as Luca certainly could.

Such is the Mullins/Elliott joint domination that only two other trainers have run more than 100 horses. Third in every category is Henry de Bromhead, who despite his Gold Cup and Champion Hurdle successes has been limited to exactly half as many horses as Elliott – 151. His 62 wins have come from 51 horses, and he’s almost on €1.1million. Almost without exception, UK trainers will be saying, “I should be so limited!”

Gavin Cromwell comes next in the list with 124 horses, €700k coming from 35 individual winners of 47 races. Philip Rothwell (26 from 76) and 34 wins from 353 runners is 5th to show the extent to which the sport across the Irish Sea is dominated by a cartel that has no inclination of going away.

No wonder Elliott bristled at the prospect of any restriction in the number of horses he could run in one race. His 15 of 20 in the Troytown last November might have been only a sample of what is to come given his relentless expansion. The possible limit of four in UK handicaps, especially the Grand National, will be welcome, though not for Elliott – if any of our trainers is equipped to take advantage.

On the flat and over jumps It’s a self-fulfilling numbers game. The two Premier race day cards at Kempton and Warwick on Saturday – to which a decent Wetherby programme was grafted on, drew only the minimal attention of Irish stables.

Mullins with a third and Elliott, a fifth place, had one visitor each, but Joseph O’Brien brought Banbridge to Kempton for the Coral Silviniaco Conti Chase and he beat Pic D’Orhy to remind us that he is indeed still training jumpers. Mullins was 3rd in this with Janidil.

At one time it seemed O’Brien would make a more significant challenge to the big two, but as he has been winning races like the Melbourne Cup (twice) and Group/Grade 1 races in Ireland, the UK, the US and Dubai, the concentration has understandably been more on flat racing.

In the present jumps season, Joseph has run only 36 horses in a total of 80 races and the 14 winners have collected 16 victories. His domestic tally of €311k is respectable in the circumstances. He clearly has quality rather than quantity in mind for the winter game.

One trainer aware of the possibilities offered by the dual Premier fixtures at Kempton and Warwick was Dan Skelton, holidaying in Barbados but still ably backed up by brother Harry, who rode a Warwick double, the former champion jockey and his wife Bridget Andrews among others supervising matters on course.

The numbers game truism holds here, too. Dan Skelton, while not yet in the scale of Ireland’s big two, has still sent 191 different horses to the races this season, easily the most among UK stables. On Saturday 9% of them – viz 16 – were dispatched to the three jumps meetings and they came back to Warwickshire with six winners, one second, four third places, two fourths and a sixth.

Skelton won the Lanzarote at Kempton with 33/1 shot Jay Jay Reilly, making his first run back over hurdles since early 2022. The trainer’s other major victory came with Grey Dawning, the gelding thrillingly going clear of his field in the Grade 2 Hampton Novices Chase at Warwick. Cheltenham beckons for both and many more I would assume from this target stable. His team will be one of the main defences against the onslaught of well-treated Irish “improvers” in many of the handicaps in seven weeks’ time.

It must be a shade frustrating in comparison with what a similar haul would have brought in Ireland or France, that six wins (worth £145k and those other places, yielded 180 grand, given the trumpeting of the new concept). It was still enough to carry him past Nicky Henderson into second slot in the UK trainers’ list.

Skelton’s 70 wins from 457 runners have earned £1,370k so he stands rather more than £200k behind his former mentor and perennial champion, Paul Nicholls. The Ditcheat master, hopefully now back on terra firma after the previous week’s abandon ship call came out in his flooded stable yard, has 72 wins from 306 runs (58 from 151 individual horses) and is just a tick short of £1.6 million.

Henderson has sent out 132 horses – a visitor to Seven Barrows might ask, “Where does he find room for them all?” – and 65 wins from 266 runs and £1,235k in prizes.

An unexpected name in fourth place is Venetia Williams, not that her talent isn’t well chronicled. In a way she defies the numbers element, even if she is comfortably behind the top three at £935k. The million should come. Her achievement is notable as she has sent out only 64 horses, 25 of them winning 38 races. Nicholls, Henderson and Williams are all operating at 24% whereas Skelton is at a relatively modest 15%.

As a one-time associate used to say – and sorry Mr Hatter I’ve used it many times, including here –  “Everything is just different numbers.” It is.

The marvel of the Elliott/Mullins and to an extent Skelton achievement is to have control over such an obviously unwieldy model. How does a trainer do morning or evening stables as in the old days? I’ve been at Hughie Morrison’s yard a few years ago and the lad would present his horse as the trainer came along the line, asking how he was and checking limbs to satisfy himself. (Of course, unlike the old days when it was probably a maximum of two horses per lad, the 2020s model required a fair bit of nimbleness on the part of the grooms as they swopped to organise one of their other three or even four further on!)

You could picture Noel Murless or, from an earlier generational, Fred Darling, satisfying himself not only with the horses’ but also the lads’ appearance as he checked them off one by one. Evening stables at Elliott’s must be fun. By the time he gets round the lot, there wouldn’t be much time for a pint.

  • TS

Monday Musings: Big Priced Winners Hiding in Plain Sight

Where to start about Cheltenham? Ever since the race following the Gold Cup on Friday afternoon, I resolved to write about a 66/1 winner that if we bothered (or had the time) to look closely at all the form, we could have been laughing all the way, if not to the bank, certainly to make a dent in our gas and electricity balances, writes Tony Stafford.

Earlier in the day a friend asked me to offer a shortie and a an each-way alternative for the last six races – Lossiemouth had already dotted in when he called. I won’t go into my unambitious, yet unsuccessful, calls, but I did have an opinion on the St James Place Festival Challenge Cup Hunter Chase.

I had a memory of the name Vaucelet, stablemate and chosen entry of three fancies for David Christie, whose Winged Leader was runner-up last year to the famed Irish standing dish Billaway, giving his Northern Ireland-based handler a change of luck. The old-timer Billaway was again in the field and was destined to fall before the action heated up.

Vaucelet had come over to the UK twice for races at the big May hunter chase showcase at Stratford. In 2021 he won the novice championship as a 6yo and a 4/1 shot, while a month after a Punchestown near-miss, behind Billaway, Vaucelet collected the Championship Hunter Chase, sponsored by Pertemps in the 63rd running for the Horse and Hound Cup.

He preceded the first UK win with hunter/point form figures that season of 21111 and since it, he’s gone 113112111. No wonder, you (as I did) might say, he was the 9/4 favourite in the 23 runner field.

Yet hiding in that line up, freely available at 66/1, was a horse that had started 11/4 off levels with Vaucelet in that Stratford novice championship.

This horse, namely Premier Magic, made the running that day and had just been headed before stumbling after jumping the last. He rallied on the flat but could do no better than a close third. He was pulled up in last year’s Cheltenham race but had the excuse of being badly crowded coming down the hill.

When he came back for that second shot against Billaway and Vaucelet, he had since been confined to point-to-points by his Welsh-based trainer and rider, Bradley Gibbs.

If Vaucelet had busily been picking up the pots on offer in the pointing field across the water, our unsung hero had been similarly campaigned. From March 2020 to Stratford in May 2021, his form figures were 21111. Since the defeat there, it was 11111 before Friday. His last win came by 14 lengths in the open at Garthorpe in February when an 8/11 favourite.

Yet he started 66/1 at Cheltenham last week! He was lucky to be clear of the late scrimmaging caused by loose horses, but he battled on genuinely, hardly a surprise with all those wins on his record. Meanwhile Vaucelet was struggling home in seventh.

Take a bow, Bradley Gibbs and Premier Magic. Some of those point-to-point experts will have been either rubbing their hands or cursing their lack of faith having backed or missed such a potential goldmine horse. I must give Jonathan Neesom a call to ask him if he had a few quid on.

Bradley Gibbs trains the horse for his partner’s father and was publicly grateful for the support given to him in developing their yard in Wales. None of the big names at the other end of the ownership rainbow would have been more deserving of satisfaction at their work of the past three years with this son of Court Cave.

As well as a Welsh winner, there was also a better-known Scottish-trained winner as Corach Rambler repeated last year’s victory in the Ultima Handicap Chase off a 6lb higher mark. This was only his 3rd run since and when Tom Scudamore came to the preview night in London he predicted this success, also that he would follow up in the Grand National.

Tom’s father, Peter Scudamore, is partner and assistant trainer to Lucinda Russell, so an element of insider information was involved there. On that preview event, at one point I was asked my bet of the week and repeated what I’d mentioned in my column here, Langer Dan on Thursday; but, by race day, I’d forgotten all about it.

So, what else from the week? I could go through the 18-10 Ireland domination over the home team, or talk about Constitution Hill, Honeysuckle and plenty more, but I imagine you’ve seen and read plenty about all of that. I’ll look for something different.

When the rain came, my thoughts were that on soft ground the potential for, if not catastrophe, then certainly mishaps, would be greatly increased. There were upwards of 400 runners over the four days and the quality of the preparation of these horses was such that only 12 were documented as having fallen. To those, you could add five unseated, with the odd horse brought down.

More predictable was the 80 pulled up, around 20 per cent of the total. Most unlikely was the Ultima which, as I’ve mentioned, was won by Corach Rambler. He headed home the Martin Brassil-trained Fastorslow, Jonjo O’Neill’s Monbeg Genius and another Irishman in The Goffer, the front four in the betting.

Notably unflattering outcomes for the home team were the opening Supreme Novice Hurdle on day one when the first eight home were trained in Ireland, unusually with Barry Connell the winning trainer (and owner) rather than Willie Mullins. The half-mile longer Ballymore on the second day provided a 1-2-3 for Mullins and he gained revenge on Connell, who predicted his Good Land would win. Eventually, with his horse fourth some way behind the Mullins trio, the status quo restored.

There was never a doubt that the Mullins fillies would dominate the Triumph Hurdle on Friday. Perhaps the most remarkable fact of this race was that all five of the expensively acquired arrivals from France in the spring last year stood their ground, never mind the soft ground.

Lossiemouth pulled almost from the off, but this time getting a clear wide course under Paul Townend, she had far too much class for stablemate Gala Marceau, who had beaten her when she got a nightmare run at the Dublin Racing Festival, and Zenta, a close third. Susanna Ricci, Honeysuckle’s owner Kenny Alexander, and J P McManus are the proud owners of the flying fillies. It was miles back to the first gelding, also Mullins-trained.

The trio of UK runners were 11th, 13th and pulled up.

But there was isolated and not so isolated fighting back where Paul Nicholls and former pupil dan Skelton were concerned. Nicholls won two of the Grade 1 races (Stage Star in the Turners’ and Stay Away Fay in the Albert Bartlett), backing up Champion Hurdle win number nine for Nicky Henderson with Constitution Hill. He was also an excellent second with Bravemansgame behind flying Gold Cup winner Galopin Des Champs from the Mullins team.

Once again Skelton pulled a couple of handicap rabbits out of the hat. It took Langer Dan three Festivals to win his race in the Coral Cup, but less expected was Bridget Andrews’ (Mrs Harry Skelton to her tradesmen) win on Faivoir, denying four Irish rivals pursuing her up the hill. She’s done it before – with Mohaayed, also in the County Hurdle, also at 33/1, and also trained by Dan Skelton – and is always a name to look out for in these highly competitive races with hosts of dangerous invaders to worry about.

In fact, the Skeltons do it so often, it’s almost as if it’s planned! Some operation that, and they know what’s needed to beat the Irish in any race at the Festival. We can’t wait for the next one.

- TS