Where to start about Cheltenham? Ever since the race following the Gold Cup on Friday afternoon, I resolved to write about a 66/1 winner that if we bothered (or had the time) to look closely at all the form, we could have been laughing all the way, if not to the bank, certainly to make a dent in our gas and electricity balances, writes Tony Stafford.
Earlier in the day a friend asked me to offer a shortie and a an each-way alternative for the last six races – Lossiemouth had already dotted in when he called. I won’t go into my unambitious, yet unsuccessful, calls, but I did have an opinion on the St James Place Festival Challenge Cup Hunter Chase.
I had a memory of the name Vaucelet, stablemate and chosen entry of three fancies for David Christie, whose Winged Leader was runner-up last year to the famed Irish standing dish Billaway, giving his Northern Ireland-based handler a change of luck. The old-timer Billaway was again in the field and was destined to fall before the action heated up.
Vaucelet had come over to the UK twice for races at the big May hunter chase showcase at Stratford. In 2021 he won the novice championship as a 6yo and a 4/1 shot, while a month after a Punchestown near-miss, behind Billaway, Vaucelet collected the Championship Hunter Chase, sponsored by Pertemps in the 63rd running for the Horse and Hound Cup.
He preceded the first UK win with hunter/point form figures that season of 21111 and since it, he’s gone 113112111. No wonder, you (as I did) might say, he was the 9/4 favourite in the 23 runner field.
Yet hiding in that line up, freely available at 66/1, was a horse that had started 11/4 off levels with Vaucelet in that Stratford novice championship.
This horse, namely Premier Magic, made the running that day and had just been headed before stumbling after jumping the last. He rallied on the flat but could do no better than a close third. He was pulled up in last year’s Cheltenham race but had the excuse of being badly crowded coming down the hill.
When he came back for that second shot against Billaway and Vaucelet, he had since been confined to point-to-points by his Welsh-based trainer and rider, Bradley Gibbs.
If Vaucelet had busily been picking up the pots on offer in the pointing field across the water, our unsung hero had been similarly campaigned. From March 2020 to Stratford in May 2021, his form figures were 21111. Since the defeat there, it was 11111 before Friday. His last win came by 14 lengths in the open at Garthorpe in February when an 8/11 favourite.
Yet he started 66/1 at Cheltenham last week! He was lucky to be clear of the late scrimmaging caused by loose horses, but he battled on genuinely, hardly a surprise with all those wins on his record. Meanwhile Vaucelet was struggling home in seventh.
Take a bow, Bradley Gibbs and Premier Magic. Some of those point-to-point experts will have been either rubbing their hands or cursing their lack of faith having backed or missed such a potential goldmine horse. I must give Jonathan Neesom a call to ask him if he had a few quid on.
Bradley Gibbs trains the horse for his partner’s father and was publicly grateful for the support given to him in developing their yard in Wales. None of the big names at the other end of the ownership rainbow would have been more deserving of satisfaction at their work of the past three years with this son of Court Cave.
As well as a Welsh winner, there was also a better-known Scottish-trained winner as Corach Rambler repeated last year’s victory in the Ultima Handicap Chase off a 6lb higher mark. This was only his 3rd run since and when Tom Scudamore came to the preview night in London he predicted this success, also that he would follow up in the Grand National.
Tom’s father, Peter Scudamore, is partner and assistant trainer to Lucinda Russell, so an element of insider information was involved there. On that preview event, at one point I was asked my bet of the week and repeated what I’d mentioned in my column here, Langer Dan on Thursday; but, by race day, I’d forgotten all about it.
So, what else from the week? I could go through the 18-10 Ireland domination over the home team, or talk about Constitution Hill, Honeysuckle and plenty more, but I imagine you’ve seen and read plenty about all of that. I’ll look for something different.
When the rain came, my thoughts were that on soft ground the potential for, if not catastrophe, then certainly mishaps, would be greatly increased. There were upwards of 400 runners over the four days and the quality of the preparation of these horses was such that only 12 were documented as having fallen. To those, you could add five unseated, with the odd horse brought down.
More predictable was the 80 pulled up, around 20 per cent of the total. Most unlikely was the Ultima which, as I’ve mentioned, was won by Corach Rambler. He headed home the Martin Brassil-trained Fastorslow, Jonjo O’Neill’s Monbeg Genius and another Irishman in The Goffer, the front four in the betting.
Notably unflattering outcomes for the home team were the opening Supreme Novice Hurdle on day one when the first eight home were trained in Ireland, unusually with Barry Connell the winning trainer (and owner) rather than Willie Mullins. The half-mile longer Ballymore on the second day provided a 1-2-3 for Mullins and he gained revenge on Connell, who predicted his Good Land would win. Eventually, with his horse fourth some way behind the Mullins trio, the status quo restored.
There was never a doubt that the Mullins fillies would dominate the Triumph Hurdle on Friday. Perhaps the most remarkable fact of this race was that all five of the expensively acquired arrivals from France in the spring last year stood their ground, never mind the soft ground.
Lossiemouth pulled almost from the off, but this time getting a clear wide course under Paul Townend, she had far too much class for stablemate Gala Marceau, who had beaten her when she got a nightmare run at the Dublin Racing Festival, and Zenta, a close third. Susanna Ricci, Honeysuckle’s owner Kenny Alexander, and J P McManus are the proud owners of the flying fillies. It was miles back to the first gelding, also Mullins-trained.
The trio of UK runners were 11th, 13th and pulled up.
But there was isolated and not so isolated fighting back where Paul Nicholls and former pupil dan Skelton were concerned. Nicholls won two of the Grade 1 races (Stage Star in the Turners’ and Stay Away Fay in the Albert Bartlett), backing up Champion Hurdle win number nine for Nicky Henderson with Constitution Hill. He was also an excellent second with Bravemansgame behind flying Gold Cup winner Galopin Des Champs from the Mullins team.
Once again Skelton pulled a couple of handicap rabbits out of the hat. It took Langer Dan three Festivals to win his race in the Coral Cup, but less expected was Bridget Andrews’ (Mrs Harry Skelton to her tradesmen) win on Faivoir, denying four Irish rivals pursuing her up the hill. She’s done it before – with Mohaayed, also in the County Hurdle, also at 33/1, and also trained by Dan Skelton – and is always a name to look out for in these highly competitive races with hosts of dangerous invaders to worry about.
In fact, the Skeltons do it so often, it’s almost as if it’s planned! Some operation that, and they know what’s needed to beat the Irish in any race at the Festival. We can’t wait for the next one.
- TS
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/PremierMagic_CheltenhamFestival2023.png319830Tony Staffordhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngTony Stafford2023-03-20 07:15:052023-03-20 07:15:06Monday Musings: Big Priced Winners Hiding in Plain Sight
Last weekend we had the two days of the Dublin Racing Festival, writes Tony Stafford. In the proceeding Monday’s piece I referred to Willie Mullins’ win haul, speculating without adding that a million Euro plus would have been won. Overall, there was €2 million on offer.
UK trainers and their owners have become so defeatist about the annual annihilation at Cheltenham every March that the thought of challenging them on their home turf at Leopardstown five weeks before C-Day is anathema at best, the road to suicide at worst.
So, even with the riches on offer there, only two UK horses were dispatched across the water, one on each of the days. Nigel Twiston-Davies offered up Weveallbeencaught for the opening 2m6f Grade 1 novice hurdle.
A winner at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day, he started the 7-2 second favourite, just half a point longer than the Barry Connell-trained Good Land, but after making the running under son Sam, he stopped quickly and finished last of eight. In the subsequent veterinary inspection, he was found to have a skinned knee but otherwise no physical abnormalities.
Day two last Sunday also brought a single runner, the Alan King-trained and double-greens owned Sceau Royal, a 9-1 shot behind 4-1 on favourite Blue Lord in the same ownership. As expected, he couldn’t match the market leader, finishing almost four lengths in arrears, but the other Willie Mullins horse, Gentleman De Mee, did to the tune of seven lengths. Sceau Royal earned connections a handsome consolation €13,500 for his third place in a field of five to bring career earnings to a few quid short of £700k.
Over recent seasons, Paul Nicholls has been loath to travel across to Ireland, scene of so many major triumphs in the past, and he also seems very cautious about sending his best horses to Cheltenham in March. Instead, he favours saving some of the best for Aintree the following month where the invaders do not quite match the ferocity and numerically overwhelming strength of Cheltenham.
But, while an advocate of Aintree generally, his defeatism where the Irish hold sway is also shown with only one entry among 85 in the Grand National, run this year on April 15th. His lone candidate, Threeunderthrufive, was last seen finishing a well-beaten sixth in Warwick’s Classic Chase. More of the Grand National later.
The domestic trials days for Cheltenham in March are mainly at the same track at the end of January – a fixture which almost surreally survived the prevailing frost – and Saturday’s well-endowed card at Newbury.
Nicholls had his team primed for the latter, with nine runners on the seven-race Betfair Hurdle card. His sole entry in that tough handicap hurdle (which he had won with Zarkandar and Pic D’Orhy previously) was Rubard. He was a well-fancied 8-1 shot but, in finishing only tenth, was just one of a series of severe disappointments for the Ditcheat handler.
The Betfair Hurdle was won with determination by Aucunrisque, reverting to hurdling after some good runs in novice chases. He held off the plotted-up favourite Filey Bay, trained by Emmet Mullins and running in the McManus colours, by a hard-fought length. The Gary Moore pair Teddy Blue and Yorksea were a long way back close together in third and fourth but will have big race wins to come I’m sure.
Aucunrisque, well handled by Nick Scholfield, is trained by Chris Gordon, who was once a bit of a comic turn around the Southern jumps tracks and a magnet for the Sky Racing TV cameras and interviewers both before and after his runners performed. He is now anything but – a serious and highly successful trainer who knows how to win big races.
That was the only race in which Nicholls did not send out the favourite and he must have had an early hint that maybe things might not go to plan when McFabulous, 4-6 for the three-runner limited handicap chase which opened proceedings, was never travelling under Harry Cobden and was pulled up a long way from home as Coeur Serein won, Jonjo O’Neill junior for his father taking gleeful advantage. Unfortunately, McFabulous was found afterwards to have an irregular heartbeat.
Next up was Barbados Buck’s in the much-loved Andy Stewart colours, going off 7-2 best in a handicap hurdle. He ran well enough for second and that was the finishing position, too, for Hitman in the Denman Chase, but the Philip Hobbs 16-1 chance Zanza galloped all over him to the tune of seven lengths. This would hardly have encouraged hopes for the Ryanair.
If Hitman’s run was disappointing, Greenatean’s in the four-runner Game Spirit Chase must have been simply demoralising in the Nicholls yard. Rated 15lb superior to Venetia Williams’ Funambole Sivola (off levels), he couldn’t go with him on the run-in and even lost second place to the Tizzards’ Elixir Du Luxe, rated 25lb inferior and only getting 6lb here. The Queen Mother Champion Chase seems to be receding into the distance.
There was another second place from 7-4 favourite Holetown Boy, annihilated in the novice hurdle by a smart Gary Moore debutant, Love Is Golden, recruited from the Johnston stable. Big things can be expected from him.
They can also be anticipated by the winning trainer of the final race, Aslukgoes, who retained an unbeaten record when battling home under Jack Quinlan in the valuable Listed bumper. Nicholls ran two here, 9-4 jolly Meatloaf, who was fifth, and Fire Flyer, 4-1 in seventh. The total prizemoney on offer for the fixture was paltry – in relation to the Irish trials meeting’s riches – at £365k. Nicholls’ owners collected less than ten per cent of that, just over 30 grand.
The Bumper winner was just the second success of the fledgling training career of Ben Brookhouse, whose father Roger owns and bred the horse. I met Ben first when he was assistant to Ian Williams, but last summer he and his father’s horses moved into the yard Wiilie Musson owns in Newmarket. He has followed, among others since Willie retired, James Ferguson, now a Group 1 winning trainer.
Aslukgoes won twice for Williams in summer bumpers, but the style of this success suggests he can be a force for the Brookhouse duo going forward in good company over jumps, maybe stopping off for the Festival Bumper and the Mullins hoards first.
I gave a passing reference to it earlier and on the evidence of this year’s entry for the Grand National, most English, Welsh and Scottish-based trainers can do little more than that these days either.
No race has had a bigger turn-around in the relative fortunes of home and Irish trainers than this greatest of all steeplechases and the unbroken sequence of winning raiders through the past five years looks almost guaranteed to be extended.
Of 85 entries, only 31 are trained in the UK and no domestic trainer has more than two horses in the field, those twin-prongers being Dan Skelton, previous winner Venetia Williams, Joe Tizzard, Henry Daly and Sam Thomas.
Lucinda Russell was the last UK winner with One For Arthur in 2017, following Mouse Morris a year earlier, but the decade before that was bereft of Irish success. Following Gordon Elliott’s explosion onto the scene with the 2007 winner Silver Birch, I seem to recall before he’d even had an Irish winner in his name, David Pipe, Venetia Williams, Jonjo O’Neill, Donald McCain, Paul Nicholls, Sue Smith, Dr Richard Newland and Oliver Sherwood won in succession.
Now the pendulum has swung so violently to the West that in the 2022 race won so impressively by UK-owned but Irish-trained Noble Yeats, he led home six more Irish and only two home runners in the first nine. Santini, fourth for Polly Gundry then, is not entered this time, but Fiddlerontheroof, fifth, is involved again and has not been seen since disappointing in the Coral, late Ladbrokes, even later Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury last November.
Three-time winner Gordon Elliott, two with Tiger Roll, alone has 21 entries, Willie Mullins eight and the rest of the Irish the remaining 25.
But to my mind, as I’ve said before, eight-year-old Noble Yeats is the one to beat once more. His stamina is outstanding and while we must wait for him to run at Cheltenham in the Gold Cup first, the 10/1 available now looks a gift. Help yourselves!
- TS
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/Nicholls-2.jpg320719Tony Staffordhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngTony Stafford2023-02-13 05:33:222023-02-13 05:33:24Monday Musings: Nicholls Clunk and National Disaster?
In this, and subsequent articles I am picking up the baton from Matt and Jon who have both previously written excellent pieces digging into the profiles of certain trainers, writes Dave Renham. As we are heading into the winter months it makes sense to throw the spotlight on some National Hunt trainers for this latest series. The first trainer I am going to look at is one of Britain's winter luminaries, Paul Nicholls.
I will be analysing nearly ten years of UK racing data from 1st January 2013 to 31st October 2022, the majority of which can be sourced by members using the Geegeez Query Tool. All profits / losses have been calculated to Industry Starting Price. Of course, we should be able to significantly improve upon the baseline figures of SP using the exchanges or BOG (Best Odds Guaranteed), and I will share Betfair SP data when appropriate.
Paul Nicholls Brief Biography
Born in Gloucestershire on April 17th 1962, Paul Frank Nicholls was educated at Marlwood School. He didn’t carry on into further education because, upon leaving school aged 16, he started working in a point-to-point yard. By the age of 20 he was race riding for Josh Gifford out of Findon, West Sussex, and then, in 1985, he moved to David Barons. His biggest successes as a jockey were back to back wins in the Hennessy Gold Cup (1986 & ’87) and, in his seven year career, he rode a relatively modest 133 winners. However, it is as a trainer that he has really excelled. Nicholls first took out his licence in 1991 but his training career took off in 1999 when he bagged three wins at the Cheltenham Festival, including the Gold Cup with See More Business. He was crowned Champion trainer for the first time in 2005-06 and, since then, has repeated this feat an amazing dozen further times.
Paul Nicholls Overall Performance Record
Below is Paul Nicholls' win record by calendar year:
Every year during the decade or so in review, his win strike rate has exceeded 20% which is impressive. Also, both his win and each way figures are consistent; both can be seen on the graph below:
Nicholls' overall win strike rate across the 10-year period stands at 23%; the each way SR at 43.2%. Breaking down into five-year groups really demonstrates his consistency:
Not surprisingly, though, given the Ditcheat handler's high profile, profits are hard to come by; and if you had backed all 5693 runners you would have lost roughly 12p in the £ to Industry SP. However, this improves to just under a 3p loss in the £ using BSP - not the worst way to lose a few quid with a high strike rate!
At this juncture it is worth mentioning Nicholls does send the occasional runner over to Ireland, but these are extremely rare. Indeed, just 29 runners have crossed the Irish Sea since 2013 with five winning and a further eight getting placed. Backing all his Irish runners would have seen a steep loss of 40p in the £.
It's time to dig a bit deeper.
Paul Nicholls Performance by Race Distance
When Matt dug into the Nicky Henderson numbers we saw a definite preference for shorter distances. What about his great rival Nicholls?
The distance distinction is not as pronounced as with the Henderson data but Team Nicholls do also seem to perform slightly worse in staying races, both from a win and returns perspective. The each way figures correlate, too, with 3 mile+ runners placing just over 36% of the time compared to the other two distance groups which stand at 46.3% (2m1f or less) and 44.8% (2m2f to 2m6f).
Paul Nicholls Performance in 3 mile+ Races
I want to dig into these 3 mile+ races in more detail as I think it is equally important to share negative angles as positive ones; avoiding poor value bets will clearly help our bottom line in the long run.
When we split these longer races into handicap and non-handicap races we get some very interesting results:
One might expect some difference in the win strike rates in favour of non-handicaps, due to quality biases and field size, but it is the returns that stand out. In non-handicap staying races, blanket support would have nudged into BSP profit; whereas in handicap races, losses of 31.58% (SP) are steep and, even using BSP, this only improved to a loss of 23.5% (23.5p in the £).
Here are the splits for 3m+ handicap chases and handicap hurdles:
Here we see similar win percentages, Impact Values and Actual vs Expected (A/E) indices; handicap chases have lost a little less money, but I would suggest these races are generally worth avoiding, unless you have a good additional reason to get involved.
Paul Nicholls Performance in Handicaps at 2m6f or less
Having seen some relatively poor stats for staying handicaps, let me share some more positive data.
As can be seen, Nicholls has recorded much higher strike rates, A/E and IV indices and, in the case of handicap hurdles, the smallest of profits even at starting price. At BSP, however, those profits would be just above the £200 mark to £1 level stakes – this equates to excellent returns of 22p in the £.
Despite this positive performance in handicap hurdle races of 2m6f or less, it is interesting to see the varying win strike rates at different courses. Below are all courses where Nicholls has had at least 40 runners:
There is quite a range here: one might expect lower strike rates at Ascot and Cheltenham due to the competitive nature of the races and, generally, races at these courses have bigger fields. Despite the low win rate, however, Nicholls has made an SP profit at Cheltenham in this context.
I want to share Nicholls' Taunton data specifically, as it is impressive: 18 wins from 71 runners, with a further 22 placed. Taunton SP profits stand at £27.47 (ROI +38.7%). BSP profits would have been increased considerably to +£47.29 (ROI +49.3%).
Paul Nicholls Performance in Non-handicap races
We have already seen that Nicholls has performed well in non-handicap races of 3 miles or further. Here are his overall non-handicap stats across different race types (all distances):
There are not many hunter chase runners per year (average around 13), but that cohort has made a small profit. However, the profit is hugely skewed due to two big-priced Cheltenham winners at 16/1 and 25/1.
His non-handicap chase figures (excluding hunter chases) also look very solid. Below I have broken down this record by age of horse – and it reveals a clear pattern:
There is a definite drop off in success rate in non-handicap chases as the horses hit the age of 8. Horses aged 7 or younger actually made a 3% profit to BSP; those 8 or older would have lost nearly 19% to BSP.
Sticking with these non-handicap chases (excluding hunter chases) and splitting the performance by starting price gives us the following breakdown:
Clearly horses priced between evens and 9/2 have offered punters good value in the past. The figures in the table above are to Industry SP; using Betfair SP one would have roughly doubled those profits. We can see very good A/E indices, too. In contrast, once starting prices get to 5/1 or bigger, there have been quite significant losses.
Paul Nicholls Performance by Starting Price
We have seen some SP data already, but let us now look at all races as a whole:
The win strike rates go down uniformly as the price bands increase – nothing unusual there. Industry SP losses have been smallest with the shorter priced runners, but the Betfair SP returns on investment are probably more useful to see.
Using Betfair SP sees a much more even return on investment across the price bands (ranging from a high of +1.6% to a low of -7.6%). In contrast to the Industry SP figures, it actually looks more advantageous to focus on runners priced 5/1 or bigger.
Paul Nicholls Performance by Course
I shared a small amount of course data earlier, but I want to dig a little deeper. I am going to look at all courses where Nicholls has had at least 100 runners and break the data down into different subsets. Firstly I am going to look at win strike rate and A/E indices across all races, hurdle races, and chases (again excluding hunter chases). With a ‘par’ A/E index for all trainers at around 0.87, I have highlighted A/E indices of 0.95 or higher (in green) – these are essentially positive. A/E indices of 0.79 or lower (in red) are negative:
There is a good sprinkling of positive A/E indices with not many negative ones; strong overall stats emerge for Fontwell, Newbury and Taunton.
Meanwhile, Haydock fascinates me; here, Nicholls' chase figures are exceptional, showing a 31p in the £ profit to SP, but his hurdle figures at the same course are dire, with a very low strike rate and losses in excess of a bruising 62p in the £. There are some things you just cannot explain!
Now a look at the same courses comparing handicap with non-handicap results using the same colour coding as before:
This time there is a more even split of positive and negative A/E indices. Fontwell and Newbury once again stand out, while Haydock again has hugely conflicting figures – excellent non-handicap results, dreadful handicap ones.
I have dug still deeper at different courses to share with you five positive looking PFN track stats:
At Fontwell in non-handicap chases (excluding hunter chases) the stable has secured 22 wins from 36 (SR 61.1%) for a profit of £9.73 (ROI +27.0%). Using BSP would increase profits marginally to £11.64 (ROI +32.3%);
At Haydock in non-handicap chases (excluding hunter chases) horses that started first or second favourite have bagged 10 wins from 16 (SR 62.5%) for a profit of £14.06 (ROI +87.9%). A slight increase again if using BSP with profits up slightly to £15.44 (ROI +96.5%);
In non-handicap novice hurdles at Wincanton, Nicholls has seen 67 of his 133 runners win securing a strike rate of 50.4%. Backing all runners would have yielded an SP profit of £30.09 (ROI +22.6%); BSP profits stand at £38.38 (ROI +28.9%);
At Taunton if you backed all his runners in hurdle races at 2m1f or less you would have been rewarded with 38 wins from 107 (SR 35.5%) for an SP profit of £19.51 (ROI +18.2%); BSP profits would have been double, at £38.78 (ROI +36.2%);
In handicap hurdle races at Musselburgh, Nicholls has sent only 22 runners on the long trek to such events but nine have won with a further five placing. Returns of over 90p in the £ were achieved to SP; to BSP this increases to 108p in the £. When Harry Cobden has ridden, he has managed five wins and two places from just eight runs.
Paul Nicholls Performance by Horse Run Style
As regular readers of mine will know, running style data is something I believe can often be an important piece of the betting puzzle. To begin with let us see the proportion of runners that fit a specific running style. Geegeez breaks running styles into four:
Led – front runners; horse or horses that take an early lead;
Prominent – horses that track the pace close behind the leader(s);
Mid Division – horses that race mid pack;
Held Up – horses that race at, or near the back of the field early.
Here are the splits for Nicholls:
We can see the marked preference for a prominent running style, tracking the early pace. That approach has accounted for over 40% of all runners from the stable. The other three run styles are each around the 20% mark.
From here, let us review the win success rate of each running style:
This is a very familiar pattern, with horses that go to the front and lead early (L) winning a far bigger proportion of races compared to other run styles. Front runners from the Nicholls stable are edging towards winning 40% of the time. Prominent racers also do well, hitting around one win in every four races; but horses that raced mid-pack or to the rear have relatively poor records.
I want to look at favourites now to see their success rate in terms of run style:
We see exactly the same pattern here with early leading favourites having an excellent record. By contrast, if you had backed every Nicholls favourite that ended up racing early in mid-division or at the back, you would have lost a whopping 33p in the £ to SP.
We have seen already that 19.61% of runners from the stable lead when we look at all races as a whole; but this figure differs markedly depending on the race type as the table below shows:
It seems therefore that non-handicap chases are the race types where we are most likely to see a Nicholls horse front run: out of trouble. However, it should be noted that the figures are skewed somewhat as non-handicaps (both hurdle and chase) tend to have slightly smaller average field sizes when compared to handicaps. To mitigate for that, I have chosen an arbitrary field size band so that we can more easily compare ‘led’ percentages across race types. I've selected races of 6 to 8 runners only to see what happens:
So in races of 6 to 8 runners we can see that non-handicaps are still much more likely to see a Nicholls runner at the front of the pack early compared to handicaps. The gap has narrowed but it is still significant. Perhaps the most interesting finding here is that front runners in National Hunt Flat races have increased considerably in these relatively small fields. There were 81 qualifying NH Flat races and Nicholls runners led early in 30 of them. Of these, a good proportion (43.3%) went onto to win.
This is a good time to mention that statistics can be really useful and informative but, naturally, it is important to see the bigger picture as possible. Sometimes stats in isolation can be a little misleading and we need context as much as possible.
Paul Nicholls Performance by Jockey
Onto some jockey analysis now. The table below shows all jockeys to have ridden at least 50 times for Nicholls since 2013, with the proviso that they have had at least one ride for the stable in 2022. I have ordered them by number of rides starting with the most:
Stable jockey Harry Cobden has a very good record on favourites scoring nearly 46% of the time for a break even scenario to SP (profit of 4p in the £ to BSP). However, the stand out here is Bryony Frost – a strike rate of around one win in every four and a profit to boot. If betting every runner of hers at BSP the profits would have risen to £113.87 (ROI +26.8%).
She has done especially well in non-handicap chases thanks to 28 wins from 65 runners (SR 43.1%) for an SP profit of £55.11 (ROI +84.8%). At BSP these returns increase by a few pence to 92p in the £.
Here are three more Frost / Nicholls stats to be aware of:
Their combined record at Ascot, Cheltenham and Kempton is impressive considering the competitive nature of the races at these tracks:
When Frost has taken an early lead, she has won on over of 40% those runners. On hold up horses, though, she has won less than 10% of the time (SR 9.3%);
Frost has an excellent record on horses she has ridden before. 68 winners from 245 rides (SR 27.8%) for a profit to SP of £87.53 (ROI +35.7%); profit to BSP of £127.01 (ROI +51.8%).
Frost is back in the saddle after a lengthy spell on the side lines so hopefully she will continue her success for Nicholls during the remainder of this season and beyond.
Paul Nicholls – Extra stats and nuggets
With the main body of the article complete let me just share with you some extra stats or nuggets that may be of interest:
Nicholls' longest losing run over the ten seasons stands at 29. He has had 29 losers in a row on five separate occasions
He has saddled back to back winners (e.g. one horse winning and then his next runner winning also) on 340 separate occasions
There are punters around who occasionally back their favourite trainer or favourite jockey and put their selections in doubles, trebles etc. Hence I thought I would look at what would have happened if you had backed all Paul Nicholls runners in trebles on the days when he had exactly three runners. He has had exactly three runners running on the same day 212 times; the treble would have been landed seven times. However, due to the fact that most prices were quite short, if you had placed a £1 win treble on all 212 days you would have lost £96.59 (ROI -45.6%). Even worse would have occurred on days where he had exactly four runners – if you had backed all four runners in a win fourfold accumulator on each of those days, you would have landed a winning bet just once, losing a whopping £136.09 (ROI -76.9%). I am not saying punters cannot be successful with these types of bets, but the odds are generally stacked against us
Just over 400 horses have run at least five times for Nicholls – of these horses 85% of them have won at least one race
In handicaps the time to catch Nicholls runners is when they have had five or fewer previous runs in a handicap. This cohort has combined to win 291 of their 1624 races. Backing them at BSP would have secured a healthy profit of £243.35 (ROI +15.0%)
Paul Nicholls – Main Takeaways
Below is a summary of the key findings from my research above. It's a handy 'cut out and keep cheat sheet' for those who like such things.
Every year Nicholls has secured an overall win strike rate of over 20%
Distance wise, Nicholls has a relatively poor record in handicap races of 3 miles or more
Handicap hurdle races at 2m 6f or less have seen impressive returns to BSP of 22p in the £
In non-handicap chases (excluding hunter chases), horses aged 7 or younger have produced a small 3p in the £ profit to BSP
Several course stats have been highlighted; three of the strongest being in handicap hurdles at Musselburgh, non-handicap chases at Fontwell, and non-handicap novice hurdles at Wincanton
Over 40% of PFN runners take a prominent position early, of which just over 25% go onto win. His best run style performance comes with front runners / early leaders: they have won 38.5% of their races
Bryony Frost has a good overall record and she has excelled in non-handicap chases
Look for horses in handicaps who have previously had five or fewer handicap runs
Paul Nicholls is an incredibly successful trainer and this article has unlocked a few angles that have proved to be positive in the past. Hopefully they will continue that way for at least some time in the future, too! Also there some negatives that we need to be aware of.
I hope you have enjoyed this piece and I’ll be back next week with a drill down into the stats of another National Hunt trainer, Mr Daniel Skelton.
- DR
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/Frodon_BadgerBeer.jpg319830Dave Renhamhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngDave Renham2022-11-22 09:30:272022-12-07 09:52:17Trainer Profiles: Paul Nicholls
“It’s a long way to Tipperary”, the first world war British army recruits used to sing as they trudged along the blasted fields of France, writes Tony Stafford. More than a century later, Ryan Moore fitted in an afternoon there sandwiched in between two successful days in Surrey, with a winner apiece at Epsom and Sandown Park.
Tipperary also provided a victory for Aidan O’Brien on Thursday but when the private jet touched down for its second Irish hop for Navan on Saturday, the serious business began. It is, after all, Guineas week – yes April 30th rather than the first Saturday in May - and the barely started flat-race season will be two-fifths of the way through the 2022 Classic races by May Day.
If we needed a sign that O’Brien senior, like his main adversary for the first Classic, Charlie Appleby, has his team in form, then Navan would tell us. Before the meeting Ryan told a mutual friend that all the maidens would run well.
In the event Ryan got on three of O’Brien’s five winners, Aidan matching stay-at-home Paul Nicholls’ tally on the final day of yet another victorious jumps championship at Sandown. Understandably, Nicholls preferred saving his best horses for the two four-runner and one five-runner highly-priced (if not as highly-prized as the swollen jumps pattern would wish) contests largely free from Irish interference. *Note: If you would like a detailed, reasoned evocation of the negative effect on the sport of the ever-growing jumps pattern, read editor Matt Bisogno’s highly informed piece on the subject.
Where the Irish did challenge, in the £90k to the winner Bet365 Gold Cup (nee Whitbread), they mopped up the prize, via 16/1 shot Hewick, trained by Shark Hanlon. Why he, of the flaming ginger hair, should be called “Shark” remains a mystery to me.
Indeed why he alone should have that designation when so many of his compatriots make an equally skilled job of matching and bettering his exploits by turning equine base metal into gold is probably a case for the Monopolies Commission, assuming of course that his nickname was acquired from his training days. But then it sometimes feels like there are other aspects of Irish stables’ domination of the major British jumps prizes every season that need referring to that body. All else seems to be failing as this year’s early false dawn at Cheltenham soon reverted to the usual bloodbath for the home team.
As a domestic aperitif to their top teams’ coming over at the weekend to Newmarket, there is the small matter of Punchestown, five days starting tomorrow and concluding on the day the 2,000 Guineas welcomes Luxembourg from the Coolmore boys to challenge the two prime Godolphin candidates, red-hot favourite Native Trail and market second-best, Coroebus.
Coroebus’ style had many admirers on the day he and Native Trail both won their 2021 finales, the favourite in the Dewhurst and the back-up in a lesser race.
But Native Trail is the only unbeaten colt of the pair, a distinction shared by Luxembourg and just two others from the 24 that stood their ground before the field is whittled down once more at noon today. I dealt with the case of William Knight’s Checkandchallenge, winner of a deep race at Newcastle last weekend. Coincidentally the other unbeaten colt is also trained in Newmarket, in his case by David Simcock. He is Light Infantry, twice a winner last year, and like Checkandchallenge, a son of the deceased Fast Company.
At the time he was in training as a juvenile with Brian Meehan, Fast Company showed many of the attributes of a potential Classic winner, but after an excellent half-length second in the 2007 Dewhurst behind the following year’s Derby winner, New Approach, he never raced again.
I was a regular on Thursday work mornings at Manton in those days and it was a great disappointment to Brian when Fast Company was sold to Godolphin and sent to be trained by Saeed bin Suroor. If either of these relative longshots wins on Saturday it will be a long-awaited accolade for a horse that had been under-valued for all his stud career despite being in the care of Darley throughout.
In the manner of such things, now Fast Company’s son Checkandchallenge has inevitably been attracting interest from people who could more easily shrug off the disappointment of a below-expectation run in the race – be that fourth or eighth as anything better would be a triumph - than Mr Hetherton whose colours he has carried hitherto.
I recall a last-minute pre-Derby sale by Karl Burke around a decade ago that probably made all the difference financially to his training career which at the time looked to be stalling or probably worse. I hope this very smart, sweet-travelling colt does his owner (whoever he may be on the day) and his talented trainer proud.
I make no apology for interjecting here on the Nicholls plans for Punchestown this year which are miserly in the extreme. Nicholls has never been as enthusiastic a Punchestown challenger as Nicky Henderson – I travelled to see Punjabi at the meeting four years in a row for two wins, a nose second and a pulled up (wind).
At time of writing on Sunday afternoon, Clan Des Obeaux, the impressive Aintree winner, is ranged alongside Allaho, Minella Indo, Galvin and Al Boum Photo in Wednesday’s Punchestown Gold Cup. He is a 3-1 shot, a short-enough price for all the domination of Aintree if that quartet turns up.
The only other possible for the UK jumps champ is Monmiral, slated to take on the two wonderful mares Honeysuckle and Epatante, the latter another Aintree winner, in her case over further. With around €160K to the winner in each of a dozen Grade 1 races over the five days, you would think sending a horse with place chances might be worth the risk even for cautious Paul.
Yet tomorrow’s card, worth in all €735k, hasn’t attracted a single English, Welsh or Scottish challenger. It will be great to watch on Racing TV all week but with the wistful thought that surely things should be different.
Back in the Guineas, Camelot, by Montjeu rather than the more influential Galileo (both sons of Sadler’s Wells) but hardly his inferior in terms of producing Derby winners, is Luxembourg’s sire.
When asked about his abilities, Aidan O’Brien said he has superior speed to Camelot, a horse that just saw off French Fifteen in an epic battle for the 2,000 Guineas ten years ago. He followed up in the Derby and the much-sought third leg of the Triple Crown was denied O’Brien and son Joseph when Camelot lost the St Leger by three-quarters of a length to Encke, a horse trained by the subsequently disgraced Mahmood Al Zarooni for Godolphin.
That was Camelot’s first defeat after five successive wins and prevented the first English Triple Crown since Nijinsky graced the 1970 season for an earlier O’Brien – the revered Vincent.
It's always great when the champion two-year-old gravitates to winning the 2,000 Guineas and after his bloodless Craven Stakes return that is entirely possible. Charlie has the horse with the form, but Luxembourg has the Coolmore badge all over him, not just on the sire’s side, but the dam is by Danehill Dancer, a sprinter that ran in Michael Tabor’s colours but far exceeded his decent racing ability when sent to stud.
The mare Attire provides another major link to the glorious past of Ballydoyle. Ben Sangster, her owner-breeder, is of course a son of the late Robert Sangster whose inheritance from his Vernons Pools-owning father funded the domination of the international bloodstock market in the 1980’s and 90’s. Along with Vincent’s supreme training skills and the business acumen and animal husbandry of Vincent’s son-in-law, John Magnier, they were an unbeatable partnership for more than two decades.
I’m with Luxembourg to prove on Saturday that blood is thicker than form lines and take him and Ryan, not to mention Aidan and the Coolmore team, to beat Native Trail with the underdog Checkandchallenge coming from the pack late on to clinch third. Easy, really, this flat racing.
I have loved the 2021-22 jumps season as my little daily job editing fromthestables.com which involves sharing the thoughts of around 15 trainers, ended with a nice win in the William Hill Radio Naps table. The 2022 summer table started yesterday and we were off to a flier when Rogue Millennium won for Tom Clover at 9/2. Only seven months to go!
- TS
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/luxembourg_VertemFuturity_2021_Doncaster.jpg319830Tony Staffordhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngTony Stafford2022-04-25 07:30:172022-04-25 07:30:17Monday Musings: Of Ryan, and Raiding Parties
When Matt sent a survey out to Geegeez members in January he got some interesting and refreshing responses, writes Dave Renham. In this article I will combine trainer angles with system research, two areas that surveyed members wanted to see more of.
A system based approach using trainer data / patterns is a tried and tested formula which has long been very popular with many punters. Indeed, in the first article of this series I shared a John Gosden system that had been successful on the flat in recent years. In this article my focus is going to be on National Hunt racing where I'll be looking for profitable trainer systems within this sphere.
I am going to look over the long term studying UK racing trainer data from Jan 1st 2009 to Dec 31st 2021. If trainers have proved profitable over such a long time frame then we have a potential system to use. From there, though, we may need to drill down further to try and determine the likelihood of an angle continuing to perform well. Of course we cannot know what the future will bring results wise and, as all of us are aware, past results may not be replicated in the future. So, with those messages in place, let’s start:
Rebecca Curtis – ‘Close’ season system
Rebecca Curtis started training in 2008 and quickly established herself as a trainer to keep a close eye on. In 2012 she had 47 winners from 189 runners which equates to a strike rate of 24.9%. Also in 2012 she had the first of her five Cheltenham Festival winners when Teaforthree won the Diamond Jubilee National Hunt Chase. Everything continued smoothly until 2017 when she split from her bloodstock agent, Gearoid Costelloe. That year she struggled, mainly due to losing roughly 50% of her horses. By 2019 she was back on track hitting a yearly win strike rate of 26.4%, but since Covid in March 2020 the performances from the stable have dipped again.
However, despite the more recent ups and downs, Curtis has continued to produce the goods in the warmer months. Focusing on May to August, the Pembroke-based handler has been consistently impressive all the way back to 2009. So our first trainer system to look at reads:
Trainer Rebecca Curtis
National Hunt UK racing – May 1st to August 31st
These are the annual strike rates for this micro angle:
At first glance the chart line may look a little volatile but the strike rate has exceeded 20% in all bar two years (2009 and 2016). It should also be noted that she had no runners in 2020 (due to the pandemic). Even last year, when she had a very modest overall 12 months, she still managed a strike rate of 29.4% making profits to BSP of £23.05 to £1 level stakes (ROI +135.6%).
From 2009 to 2021 the overall system results were:
A highly impressive bottom line and we know the strike rates have been decent year in, year out – so let’s look at the annual BSP profit figures:
Overall, then, it's nine winning years and only three losing ones, which is pleasing to see – consistency is something that we should all look for in systems.
Breaking the data down like this does highlight that 2016 must have had a huge priced winner or two. In fact it was a just one winner that after Betfair commission would have paid a remarkable 155/1. Thus, the original bottom line of +£220 to £1 level stakes does not look quite as impressive now. It is important to realise that big priced winners can skew results markedly and potentially turn a system on its head. Using Query Tool, the A/E metric will help here, and this - along with other metrics used extensively on geegeez.co.uk - is explained in more detail in this post.
All things being out in the open now, I would still hope this system has potential for the future. Even without that huge priced winner the figures remain solid. My biggest concern in reality is whether Rebecca Curtis will have the ammunition to produce such positive results in the future, but of course nobody can answer this.
That said, if you had focused only on Curtis runners that started clear favourite you would have witnessed 47 winners from 78 runners giving an exceptional strike rate of 60.3%. They have naturally proved extremely profitable securing profits of £35.33 at BSP to £1 level stakes (ROI +45.3%). These market leaders also produced profits in all but one year. Adapting the system to focus just on favourites may be a way to go for some of you. (For the record, Ms Curtis has also saddled six qualifying joint-favourites, two of which won, giving a small profit also).
Before moving on, it is interesting to note that Peter Bowen, a trainer Curtis worked for prior to securing her own license, also has a good long-term record with his runners in the ‘close’ season. His overall performance from 2009 in the months of May to August reads:
Like Curtis, one big-priced winner in 2018 (220/1 after commission) has clearly helped. However, even removing that winner from Bowen's figures, the overall bottom line still looks rosy. I am more circumspect about Bowen, though, because if you take out that big priced winner and look at the more recent years 2014 to 2021, he has only made a small profit. Further, in 2020, he had just one winner from 63 starters! Now, of course, Covid really impacted the 2020 season for many, so that may just be a blip, but it is/was a big blip.
Paul Nicholls – Claiming jockeys in hurdle races
Paul Nicholls has been one of the top National Hunt trainers since the turn of the century but making profits from his runners is easier said than done. Top trainers are by definition unable to fly under the radar and finding value can be tricky. However, one area where Nicholls has performed relatively well is with horses ridden by claiming jockeys. Since 2009, Nicholls has used claiming jockeys on 1513 horses, of which 308 have won (SR 20.4%). Backing all these runners would have shown a loss to BSP but only £15.98 which equates to just a penny in every pound wagered. Compare this to his runners ridden by professional jockeys which would have lost £243.95, equivalent to losing 4p in the £.
Thus, claiming jockeys look a potential route to profits. Here is the system I have come up with:
Trainer Paul Nicholls
Hurdle races
Horse ridden by claiming jockey
Jockey has ridden the horse before
I chose hurdle races simply because there ought to be less chance of an inexperienced jockey falling. In addition I felt that if the jockey had ridden the horse before it would probably be a plus given these riders' general greenness. Again, I have very few rules in the system which hopefully avoids the dreaded back-fitting issue. The overall results from ’09 - ‘21 are in the positive range:
A strike rate of just over one in four and returns of 27p in the £ is a really good outcome. Let’s see how consistent the system would have been by looking at the annual strike rates first:
For this type of system we are more likely to see a volatile strike rate year to year but, as can also be seen, the figures have been stronger in recent years. Six of the past eight seasons have seen a strike rate in excess of 29%.
All well and good, but what of the bottom line? Below, we are looking at BSP profit to £1 level stakes. Looking at ROI% would be far too volatile due to sample size.
There have been nine winning years and four losing ones; but, since 2013, that reads eight winning years and only one losing year. The overall placed percentages are slightly above what I would expect which offers a further layer of confidence.
Sticking my neck out here, I would expect this system to prove profitable over the next five years, assuming nothing changes drastically within the Nicholls set up. The system has been relatively consistent with a decent overall strike rate; the trainer is one of the best in the business and the system has not been skewed due to big priced winners.
Venetia Williams – Chasers coming off a break
Venetia Williams has consistently been more successful with her chasers compared to her hurdlers over the years. Her overall strike rate in chases going back to 2009 stands at just under 16%; in hurdle races this drops to around 12%. In addition to this, for years now I have noticed that Ms Williams' horses seem to be fit regardless of how long they have been off the track. Hence I have devised a system that can take advantage of this. The rules are:
Trainer Venetia Williams
Chases
Horse off track for five months (150 days) or more
I have chosen five months or more because that is roughly the break between the official end of the NH season in late April/early May and when the next season starts to get into full swing around late September/early October. [For the record, if I had chosen six months instead the figures would be very similar]
In terms of days therefore the five months equates to a break of more than 150 days. The overall results from 2009 look strong:
The yearly results are consistent, too – nine winning years, three losing ones and one that broke even. Indeed, two of the three losing years occurred in 2009 and 2011 so, since 2012, there has been just one year producing negative returns.
More positives can be found when we examine the prices of the winners. The pie chart below breaks down the 87 winners into Betfair SP price brackets.
As is shown, the vast majority of winning prices were at the shorter end of the market. 23 winners were 4.00 (3/1) or lower, while 60 were 10.00 (9/1) or lower. Just five winners were bigger than 20.00 BSP (19/1), and the two biggest priced winners were both under 40/1 BSP. This again helps explain why results have been consistent over the years.
Runners off a long layoff is an underused pattern for some punters. However, there are some trainers, like Venetia Williams, who are able to make a break more of a positive than a negative. It is interesting to note that Ms Williams has made profits at all distance ranges as the table below shows:
Strike rates are similar across the board, but the biggest returns by far have been in the longest distance races (3 miles or more), returning nearly 88p profit for every £1 bet. Yes, the strike rate has been marginally higher in that group, but I think this is more an example of punter bias. I think many punters are put off backing horses that are running at long distances after a decent length break. Their thinking, (which is logical), is that they surely won’t be fit enough to be competitive in a really long contest. Hence the prices available become slightly higher than they should be due to that lack of betting interest. Venetia Williams is clearly adept at getting horses fit and that gives us betting opportunities that represent value.
Other potential system ideas to look into further
I have looked above in some detail at three potential systems that I think could and should continue to be profitable for the next few years. To finish, I want to share four more potential systems that you, the reader, might want to use, or indeed to dig around a little deeper:
Anthony Honeyball – Lower Class races
Anthony Honeyball, whose yard is sponsored by geegeez.co.uk, is a trainer that has performed extremely well in lower grade races in recent years. Focusing on class 5 or 6 races only, Honeyball has secured a strike rate of 23.5% (105 wins from 446 qualifiers) showing a profit to £1 level stakes of £148.14 which equates to returns of 33p in the £. There were eight winning years out of 13, while ten of the 13 seasons saw a strike rate of 20% or more.
Henderson has produced decent profits since 2009 with horses making their debut in a hurdle race: 78 winners from 201 runners (SR 38.8%) is remarkable. BSP profits stand at £94.49 to £1 level stakes (ROI +47.0%), and eight of the last ten years have shown a profit.
In particular, keep an eye on the shorter priced runners: horses which were sent off at 3.5 (5/2) or less on Betfair have produced 53 winners from 83 runners (SR 63.9%) for a profit of £30.71 (ROI +37.0%).
David Pipe – winners returning within 10 days
David’s father Martin was one of the first trainers to realise that National Hunt horses could return to the track after a very short break and perform well. David has continued to some extent in his father’s footsteps, certainly in terms of success, although not perhaps in volume of runners. When David Pipe winners return to the track within 10 days, their strike rate has been close to 40% with returns of around 31p in the £. There have been ten winning years from 13, but in recent years qualifiers per season have been in single figures. Hence this system will not make you fortunes, but when a runner crops up it commands close scrutiny.
If you want to increase the number of runners, Pipe’s record with winners returning to the track within 20 days is decent also.
Gordon Elliott – handicap hurdle races
Gordon Elliott is a trainer who has excelled in handicap hurdle races since 2009. He has saddled 93 winners from 459 runners (SR 20.3%) showing a BSP profit of £167.99 (ROI +36.6%). A couple of biggish priced winners have made up roughly half of these profits, but it is interesting to note his record if we ignore any horse priced greater than 20.0 (Betfair price).
Doing so means the figures are not hugely skewed in any way. Focusing on these runners (shorter than 20.0) sees Elliott's record read 89 wins from 374 (SR 23.8%) for a profit of £108.59 (ROI +29.4%). That is comprised of nine winning years out of 13 with three of the losing years producing extremely small losses.
It is worth noting that Elliott's record in Ireland in handicap hurdles is much poorer. As an aside, and maybe a point worth further research, the vast majority of his handicap hurdlers in the UK ran in Ireland last time.
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I hope you have enjoyed this article and fingers crossed the systems shared will continue in the same profitable way. Nothing is guaranteed but I remain hopeful!
Regular readers will know of my interest in the impact of run style and, in this article, six National Hunt trainers come under the spotlight as I look for running style patterns which might lead to profitable angles, writes Dave Renham. The trainers in question are Paul Nicholls, Nicky Henderson, Jonjo O’Neill, Donald McCain, Venetia Williams and Alan King. I have looked at data between January 1st 2015 and December 31st 2021, seven years in total.
Before I start in earnest, however, a quick recap of running styles for all new readers and how Geegeez can help with understanding them.
The first furlong or so of any race sees each horse take up its early position and soon the horses settle into their racing rhythm. Normally these positions do not change too much for the first part of the race. The position each horse takes early can be matched to a running style - www.geegeez.co.uk has a pace section on its racecards that highlights which running style each horse has taken up early in a race. There are four run style groups, as follows:
Led – horses that take the early lead (the front runner). In National Hunt racing you generally get just one front runner, but occasionally there may be two or more horses disputing the early lead;
Prominent – horses that track close behind the leader(s);
Mid Division - horses that take up a more midfield position;
Held Up – horses that are held up near to or at the back of the field.
These running styles are assigned a numerical figure ranging from 4 to 1; Led gets 4, Prominent 3, Mid Division 2 and Held Up 1. Having numbers assigned to runners helps greatly with analysis as you may have seen in previous articles.
Run Style Analysis: All races
To begin with, let's take a look at all National Hunt races combined, breaking down the running styles of all horses for each of our six trainers. Connections, most notably the trainers, can clearly have a significant influence on the running style of their horses: most will give instructions to their jockeys before the race telling them how they would prefer the horses to be ridden.
Below, the table shows which percentage of each trainer's runners displayed one of the four running styles. I have included the figure for ALL trainers (1527 trainers combined!) as the 'control':
As can be seen there is quite a contrast; both Alan King and Jonjo O’Neill are clearly largely averse to sending their runners into an early lead. In contrast Donald Mc Cain, Venetia Williams and, to a lesser extent, Paul Nicholls seem happy to send a decent proportion of their runners to the front early.
In terms of their success with early leaders / front runners – all of them exceed 20% when it comes to strike rate (see graph below). For the record, 20% is the average winning figure for front runners in all National Hunt races.
Henderson and Nicholls have a simply stunning record with front runners – a strike rate for both of pushing 40%. Now I have mentioned before that if as punters we had access to a crystal ball pre-race to see which horse would be taking the early lead, it would be a license to print money. Here are the hypothetical profit/loss figures for the front runners of the six trainers to once again prove that point:
Combining all trainers in the list would have yielded an SP profit of £394.91 to £1 level stakes. Now, as we know, predicting which horse is going to take the early lead is far from an exact science. However, with some detailed analysis of the trainers in the race, as well as the horses concerned there will be opportunities to maximise our chances of nailing down the likely front runner.
Run Style Analysis: Chases
I have noted in previous pieces that front runners in chases make the biggest profits in terms of National Hunt racing, so let us see how our six trainers perform in these races. Here are their win strike rates with front runners in chases. In the table I have included their All races front running SR% to facilitate comparison:
Similar figures for each trainer although Alan King’s figure drop about 5%.
And here are the hypothetical profits from identifying and backing these front runners in chases over the course of the seven years in the sample:
All six trainers would have been in profit to SP – a combined profit of £350.38 to £1 level stakes indicates why chases are so ‘front runner’ friendly.
I have also looked at the percentage of their runners which displayed a front running style in chases – as with the All Race data I shared earlier, two trainers (King and O’Neill) are far less likely to send their charges to the front early:
It still staggers me every time I see trainers that send a low percentage of their runners to the front early. Just one in twelve of Jonjo O’Neill’s runners goes into an early lead in a chase. However, when they do, they win nearly 25% of the time (one race in four). Compare this to his record with hold up horses in chases. Nearly 45% of all Jonjo O’Neill’s runners in chases are held up early – but just 11% go onto win. It’s nuts! [For all that there might be other reasons for holding certain horses up on some occasions - Ed.]
Hold up horses do not perform well in chases either – to illustrate this here are the chase records of the six trainers with their hold up runners:
The summary on hold up horses is low strike rates and huge losses all round. This group will, of course, include a subset of no-hopers though, in relation to such high profile trainers, there will be fewer of these than for most other handlers.
Run Style Analysis: Hurdle races
Generally speaking, hurdle races do not offer as strong a front running edge as chases, but it is still preferable to lead early compared with other running styles.
With that in mind, let us review the hypothetical profits from our trainers' front runners in hurdle races:
Some good strike rates for Nicholls, Henderson and King, but not the wall to wall profits seen in the chases analysis.
It is noticeable that, as a whole, the six trainers send out a smaller proportion of front runners in hurdle races as compared to chases. This will be in part due to typically smaller field sizes in chases then in hurdles, but that doesn't fully account for the differentials. The graph below illustrates:
Alan King has sent just less than 4% of his hurdlers into an early lead despite these runners scoring 35% of the time. As a comparison, his held up runners (which account for 37% of all King's hurdlers) won just 13% of the time.
Run Style Analysis: Full Summary
To conclude, I'd like to share the individual trainer win strike rate data across all four running styles in different race types. I have included National Hunt flat races, too. These races do not give front runners as strong an edge although they still perform better than any of the other three running styles.
The table below gives a very clear picture as to why run style is so important. It shows the significant edge front runners have overall; it also shows that prominent runners perform far better than horses that race mid division or are held up.
- Dave Renham
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/NavajoPass_BuveurdAir_UnibetChampionHurdleTrial_Haydock_2021.jpg319830Dave Renhamhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngDave Renham2022-01-10 12:17:142022-01-10 12:17:14Run style analysis of a selection of National Hunt trainers
The Irish duly won the 2021 Ladbrokes King George VI Chase, but not with either of the pair which shared in the five-strong short list suggested a week ago, writes Tony Stafford. The winner was 28-1 shot Tornado Flyer, ridden by Willie Mullins’ nephew Danny, successful for the third time over fences but after a losing sequence of nine.
Unusually, all five of the pretty obvious principals turned up, in one form or another and we certainly didn’t see the real Minella Indo, already well beaten when pulled up by a frustrated Rachael Blackmore a long way from home. He and Frodon, ridden by Bryony Frost, evidently wanted to put on a show of strength, not necessarily from the saddle, but certainly under them as their mounts shared a fast pace through the first part of the race.
Frodon and Bryony have been habitual and very successful front runners in their ten-win time together, three around Kempton, but this time the two heroines of 2021 (and a good while before) simply cancelled each other’s mounts out, compromising any chance of a finishing effort.
Perhaps it all goes down to the centuries-old presumption that Kempton is a sharp track: not when top-class horses share a fast pace over three miles on anything other than fast ground. We saw the same a race earlier when the nominal stayer Not So Sleepy pulled away his chance in the Christmas Hurdle leaving the more economical Epatante to gain an emphatic success.
Trainer Henry De Bromhead’s position atop the staying chase standings rests now on A Plus Tard’s seeing off three Gordon Elliott and four Willie Mullins opponents in the Savills Chase at Leopardstown tomorrow. The Gold Cup winner is looking rather tarnished at this point and it needs a big statement from A Plus Tard
So, team tactics anyone? It is probably tempting enough, one would think, especially for Elliott who is no longer a trainer for Cheveley Park Stud, owners of A Plus Tard. Mullins, whose Allaho ties in with the form of his two Kempton King George representatives, will need to be more circumspect although his stable’s owners have to get used to coming out on the wrong side in the very frequent event he has multiple contenders.
I expected it to be Asterion Forlonge yesterday, the horse that probably would have won the John Durkan Memorial for Mullins at Punchestown last time but unseated Brian Cooper when about to take the lead three fences from home.
That left Allaho to struggle home and Mullins clearly didn’t want to give him another tough race so soon after he looked pretty spent up the run-in.
Further back that day in fifth after some ordinary jumping was Tornado Flyer, and he had also been behind Allaho when that horse won at the Cheltenham Festival, but Mullins runs more than one if he thinks there is the slightest chance that he could pick up money further down the line in these valuable races.
I’m not convinced that Asterion Forlonge would have finished behind Tornado Flyer, who led him by three lengths going into the final fence with Clan Des Obeaux already beaten off. He appeared to jump the final fence the more spectacularly but this time crumpled on landing and Cooper again bit the dust.
It was left to Paul Nicholls to collect positions two to four with Clan Des Obeaux, a full nine lengths back, the outsider Saint Calvados almost four lengths behind in third and a spent Frodon toiling home another six lengths adrift in fourth.
Whereas Mullins was winning only the second King George of his illustrious career, Nicholls can point to 12 and with three, or rather two and a half realistic chances, he would have gone home less than chuffed even though they collected 95 grand between them as against £143k for the winner.
I must say I feel sorry for trainer Harry Whittington who could hardly have been accused of doing badly with Saint Calvados, winning five of his 14 chases and only narrowly failing to beat Min in a race at the Cheltenham Festival a couple of seasons back.
When it’s your stable star that gets whisked away to a man with a yard full of top-class animals, to the extent that your former horse will be a 25/1 outsider on debut, you can understand if his feelings are a little bitter. It’s a hard enough game and as we know the rich get richer and the rest get what’s left! Saint Calvados did actually look a possible winner inside the last mile but either insufficient stamina or simply limited ability at the top level took over.
The biggest disappointment of the King George for the home team was Chantry House, the 3-1 favourite on the day, who ran a shocker. He tied in with all the best form having beaten Asterion Forlonge back into third in the Marsh Chase at Cheltenham last season. A winner after that at Aintree and with the benefit of a comeback stroll round in a two-horse Sandown freebie should have put him right to run a big race but he was never travelling like a possible winner.
His performance was in stark contrast to the rest of the Henderson team who provided a treble for the trainer on a track which he loves so much he was sent into a state of apoplexy when the course’s management advocated the closure of its wonderful jumping track in favour of residential development.
I am with him on that, Kempton having provided many of my happiest racing experiences. It’s where I met Ray Tooth but also where I had a horse which won a mile and a half three-year-old maiden from 13 quite expensive horses by 20 lengths at 20-1 in heavy ground. Not many stayed that day either!
Epatante was the high point in Nicky’s treble, providing the filling in a sandwich between odds-on first-race winner Broomfield Burg, who must hold Festival novice hurdle aspirations for J P McManus, and Middleham Park’s last-race eye-opener Marie’s Rock who looked a mare with a future when adding a first hurdles success to three in bumpers two winters ago.
Last week I was suggesting that Christmas this year was falling ideally for me to circumnavigate the various requirements of work and family. Well here I am at almost 2.30 a m. on Monday morning absolutely knackered and spent of anything worth talking or writing about. So if you don’t mind, I’m turning in. It’s that or watching the cricket. Happy New Year!
TS
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/TornadyFlyer_KingGeorge.jpg319830Tony Staffordhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngTony Stafford2021-12-27 08:57:222022-01-01 17:21:26Monday Musings: A King George Head Scratcher
Last March, as Rachael Blackmore urged her mount in the Cheltenham Gold Cup to close on stablemate Minella Indo and Jack Kennedy up the hill after the last fence, she would have been excused for saying: “A Plus Tard” or “see you later” in the English version, writes Tony Stafford.
The comment might have been Lostintraslation for some – the much-fancied horse of that name pulled up two from home that day – but after last weekend when both latter horses won major races, the path appears set for a march to greatness for the Henry De Bromhead seven-year-old.
Lostintranslation’s easy win in Ascot’s Chanelle Pharma Chase signalled another pointer to the revival in form of the Tizzard stable – soon by all accounts to have son Joe’s name rather than dad Colin’s above the stable entrance. That effort, though, could not compare with the Irish-trained horse’s performance in running away with the Betfair Chase at Haydock Park.
Most enjoyable for British racegoers as the Irish won this coveted Haydock autumn feature for the first time, was that A Plus Tard carries the colours of Cheveley Park Stud, the principal UK-owned breeder which every year produces top-class animals. With more than 100 mares and in excess of 110 in training every year, Flat racing is the bread and butter. Jumping is the winter release.
Under the careful management of Chris Richardson the stud has fuelled on the enthusiasm for jump racing of Patricia Thompson and her late husband David. The couple won the 1992 Grand National with last-minute buy Party Politics, trained by Nick Gaselee and ridden by Carl Llewellyn, and in recent years built up a select team of high-class jumpers in Ireland.
A class apart though is A Plus Tard and although only a seven-year-old he has just entered his fourth season as a steeplechaser, and still has only 12 races over fences (five wins, five seconds and two thirds) on his record.
Much of the talk before Saturday’s race surrounded the possibility that Bristol De Mai would equal the achievement of Kauto Star who won the Betfair four times in the first decade of the millennium with one unseated preventing an unblemished five-race record.
Bristol De Mai, trained for the last eight seasons by Nigel Twiston-Davies and, like Kauto Star, an early acquisition from France after precocious efforts over hurdles, has won three. Initially he beat in turn Gold Cup winners Cue Card and Native River. He was narrowly beaten in the race in 2019 to Lostintranslation before outstaying multiple Grade 1 winner Clan Des Obeaux last November.
As with those two multiple Betfair victors, A Plus Tard started in France. Whereas Kauto Star had already raced nine times (winning three) before his dramatic step up in form to win a four-year-old Graded hurdle at Auteuil when a 36-1 shot in late May, A Plus Tard never raced at that level. His moment came on his fifth and final start (and second win) when collecting a 40k to the winner 4yo handicap early in April 2018 there.
Like Kauto Star and Bristol De Mai before him A Plus Tard switched quickly to chasing, running as early as November of that year and finishing runner-up in a field of 13 at Gowran Park under Blackmore – the first of the 11 races in which they have combined.
Remarkably, three races on and less than four months after that initial association the now five-year-old ran away with the 20-runner Close Brothers Handicap Chase. The only horse of his age in the race, he did so giving weight and a 16-length thrashing to Grade 1 hurdle winner Tower Bridge with 18 other decent performers trailing far behind.
His next run brought defeat in third over three miles at Punchestown at the end of his busiest season with De Bromhead. He was restricted to only three races the next winter, sandwiching defeats on reappearance and when a close third behind Min in the Ryanair Chase at Cheltenham with a first Grade 1 triumph at Leopardstown over Christmas.
And last season was another cherry-picked campaign of just three races. Again Leopardstown provided the one win, another at Grade 1 level over Christmas but this time without Rachael who partnered instead Minella Indo, who fell before the race warmed up. Darragh O’Keeffe was the lucky man to step into her shoes. Back on A Plus Tard in the Gold Cup as chronicled at the start of the piece, second place to her stable-companion and other regular partner came as their rally up the hill was a little trop tard.
There is an uncanny symmetry about aspects of the early careers of Kauto Star and A Plus Tard. Both started in France and showed precocity. Certainly in the case of Kauto Star, he burned bright for many seasons. De Bromhead’s deliberate planning for his young improving star’s career offers hope that his will also be long-lasting
The Knockeen, County Waterford, trainer has run him sparingly and, with a horse of such talent, there is no need to go searching away beyond the top prizes. I would be surprised if he turned out more than four times, with Punchestown a possible after Cheltenham, especially if he wins the Gold Cup this time. Next will likely be the normal trip to Leopardstown for a Christmas hat-trick attempt.
Minella Indo, who comes from the parallel universe of Irish jumps talent, the point-to-point field, is the De Bromhead version of Paul Nicholls’ Denman. That great chaser was a contemporary of and in terms of merit almost exact counterpart of Kauto Star and he too came from the Irish pointing field.
Kauto Star was by 29 days the senior and in terms of their careers with Nicholls earned almost twice as much as his colleague and rival, collecting £2.2 million from 19 wins in 31 chases. Denman won 14 of 24 for £1.14 million
When Kauto Star won his first Betfair Chase as a six-year-old he was rated 173. Afterwards he even once touched as high as 190 but mostly was rated in his prime in the 180’s.
Although at seven a year older at the time of his first win in the race, A Plus Tard is rated 1lb lower at 172. It is worth reminding ourselves of the ease of his win, and on faster ground than is normal for the Betfair Chase.
Bristol De Mai and Royale Pagaille kept each other company for more than two-thirds of the race on Saturday before Royale Pagaille got the edge in that private battle, with A Plus Tard always tracking them going easily. He was sent to the front three out and, pulling away all the way home, the finishing margin of 22 lengths over Royal Pagaille could have been much greater had Rachael wished.
Remembering just how impressive Royal Pagaille (rated 163) had been in the Peter Marsh Chase over the same course and distance last January, it was salutary to see a similar disrespectful beating being handed out to him. The winner must be raised for the win although Kauto Star’s rating as he won successively his first Betfair, Tingle Creek (two miles) and the first of his five King Georges brought very little reaction from the handicapper.
There was definitely a hint of Kauto Star in the speed with which A Plus Tard disposed of his 2019 Close Brothers rivals at Cheltenham, and again as he cosied up to Royal Pagaille before asserting. This was an exceptional performance but there is still that stable-companion and last season’s Cheltenham defeat to avenge before we declare him the best of the bunch.
Rachael Blackmore also had to make a painful (at least it looked that way beforehand) choice between A Plus Tard and her 2021 Cheltenham Festival winner Bob Olinger when that horse also made his seasonal return at Gowran Park, again with Darragh O’Keeffe as the beneficiary.
Bob, the deeply-impressive unchallenged winner of last season’s Ballymore Novice Hurdle at the Festival, was appearing for the first time since and enjoyed a nice school round to defeat useful yardstick Bacardys (Willie Mullins). This was the champion trainer’s first try at assessing the likely threat to his own best novice chasers later in the season. It might have dented his optimism a bit, but he usually pulls one out of the hat!
One Saturday winner who will offer some hope of a domestic success at the Festival is the Nicky Henderson-trained but Hughie Morrison nurtured and developed grey, Buzz, who followed his Cesarewitch success with another dominant effort in the Coral (to you and me Ascot) Hurdle.
While there is an intermediate distance race for the top-class chasers (the Ryanair) at the Festival, two and a half mile hurdlers are forced to drop back to the minimum for the Champion Hurdle or stretch to three miles and a bit for the Stayers. Otherwise they can wait for Aintree which does cater for them.
I think the level Aintree circuit would be perfect to utilise Buzz’s Flat-race speed and he would be meeting horses partly used up trying either of the possible Cheltenham options. But then, who can resist the lure of Cheltenham? Certainly not, it seems, James Stafford and his Thurloe Thoroughbreds syndicate.
Buzz races for the partners but, with a portion of the proceeds of their victories going to the Royal Marsden, Buzz will always have a feel-good factor going for him.
Never mind additionally that James did casual shifts for me ages ago at The Daily Telegraph and thereafter always greets me on the country’s racecourses as “Uncle Tone”. I can think of worse forms of address – indeed I’ve received a few in my time!
- TS
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/aPlusTard_BetfairChase2021.jpg319830Tony Staffordhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngTony Stafford2021-11-22 09:50:472021-11-22 09:50:47Monday Musings: An APT Comparison?
The jumps season 2020/21 ended with controversy when the heavily-backed favourite Enrilo finished first past the post in the Bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown Park, but was disqualified and placed third after hanging left and hampering the challenging Kitty’s Light up the run-in, writes Tony Stafford.
Meanwhile, as newly-crowned champion Harry Skelton struggled to keep his mount straight, up the inside steamed the Alan King-trained Potterman. His spurt under Tom Cannon got him into a narrow second place just before the line and, following a lengthy stewards’ inquiry, Paul Nicholls and owners Martin Broughton and friends were left with a £52k shortfall as Enrilo was put back to third.
Nobody, least of all Alan King, believes Potterman deserved to pick up the money and it was almost in the Nureyev mould of verdict. Back in 1980 that French-trained son of Northern Dancer interfered with Posse some way from home when a hot favourite for the 2,000 Guineas, beat Known Fact by a neck, but afterwards he was disqualified and placed last by the stewards.
Posse had recovered well enough to finish third and while I’m sure owner Stavros Niarchos would not have been any less unhappy had a similar outcome to Saturday’s left Nureyev in the minor position, it had real reverberations at the time. Nureyev was due to return for the Derby but missed the race, never appeared again and was retired to stud, where he was a great success.
In those far off days I loved an ante-post punt – any punt really! – and had quite a chunk at 20/1 about Nureyev after his six-length debut victory in Paris the previous autumn. My memory in the interim had played its usual tricks, the recollection being that he’d won by far more than the actual margin. For the outrage to last well into this century as it did, he needed to have done so!
If the stewards of the BHA do not overturn the verdict at the appeal Paul Nicholls plans to lodge, it will not take too much gloss off the stellar seasons of either trainer or rider. Nicholls for now ends with 176 wins, five more than his previous best achieved in 2016/7. Skelton finished with 152, ten ahead of last year’s champion, Brian Hughes. A late flurry of winners, 17 in the final fortnight compared to five by his rival, clinched the deal with much more comfort than could ever have been predicted.
What did alter the dynamic was the readiness for Harry to accept more rides for outside stables. Of the 152 wins – not his best, he got to 178 when Richard Johnson had 201, his second double-century, but this was a delayed start due to Covid last summer – 136 were for Dan. Of the 558 mounts during the season, only 68 were for other trainers, yet in that last fortnight, six wins were hewn from 16 outside rides.
When Nick Skelton sent his two sons to learn their trade with Nicholls 15 or so years ago, he will have had lofty ambitions for them. One day, walking past Raymond Tooth’s Mayfair office, Nick bumped into the lawyer who at the time had a powerful team and indeed had already won his Champion Hurdle with Punjabi. “When are you going to send a horse for Dan to train?” asked Nick.
It was probably a couple of years on that Notnowsam, whose trainer Noel Quinlan was about to hand in his notice, arrived in the Skelton yard. A few days later, on May Bank Holiday Monday six years ago, he duly trotted up first time in a novice handicap chase, not a bad effort for a four-year-old.
Sadly Notnowsam proved much better at finishing second than winning after that bright start and when eventually he was sent to the sales, he was bought by Micky Hammond, for whom he was little short of a disaster.
At the time I hadn’t been aware of it, but later I learned that before Dan had arranged to collect Notnowsam he called Noel Quinlan to check that he was happy for the horse to leave and join him. “That’s a gentleman!” said a delighted former trainer, after the Warwick win.
This time of year always coincides with Punchestown and the conclusion of Ireland’s jump season. For four consecutive years I made the journey to Ireland and in 2009 drove via the ferry as Punjabi attempted a third successive win at the fixture.
As a juvenile in 2007 he was third in the Triumph Hurdle behind Katchit but won the Grade 1 juvenile race at Punchestown. The next year, he was again third to Katchit, this time in the Champion Hurdle before winning the Irish Champion at Punchestown.
After his win at Cheltenham in 2009 hopes obviously were high for the three-timer, but he missed the last hurdle when narrowly ahead and, in the testing ground, just failed to hold off the stayer Solwhit who got up on the line.
As I said, I’d driven over this time, and where I had to park the car, the ground was absolutely sodden. A few days later my ankle became very swollen and I ended up spending almost a week in hospital – my first since having my tonsils removed 56 years previously.
The diagnosis was that I’d probably been bitten by insects and the poison had got into my bloodstream so badly that I needed to be on a drip for the first few days of my stay. It was so frustrating because I’d wanted Nicky Henderson to try to win the Chester Cup. Punjabi had won the only two Flat races he ever contested since joining from previous trainer, Geraldine Rees. I’ve no idea if he’d have been good enough to win it but at the time my reasoning had been, we’ve already won twice over there, whereas winning the Chester Cup would always be special for an English owner.
Nicholls and the Skeltons will both be in action at Punchestown this week, but UK-trained raiders will hardly make a ripple, certainly nothing to compare with the steamrollering domination of the Irish at Cheltenham and Aintree.
Kim Bailey runs First Flow and Skelton Nube Negra in the William Hill Champion Chase tomorrow where the Queen Mother Champion Chase winner Put The Kettle On will be missing as she tried unsuccessfully to win at Sandown on Saturday. For once the raider was blown away as Nicholls’ new star, Greaneteen, a valiant Altior, and Sceau Royal all finished ahead of the mare.
In a seven-horse race, this still means the Queen Mother Chase’s beaten favourite, Chacun Pour Soi, will be out to repair his slightly-tarnished reputation on a day that Paul Townend’s title challenge enters a crucial stage.
Passed fit to ride after his recent injury, his absence has allowed Rachael Blackmore to get to within four as she seeks the first championship. Her list of achievements is already overwhelming, but a jockeys’ title would in terms of merit be the pinnacle. Willie Mullins isn’t making it that easy for Townend as his mount is only one of three in the race for the trainer in a field of seven and Blackmore retains the ride on her easy Ryanair Chase winner, Allaho. I reckon that horse’s stamina will have the Cheveley Park colours to the fore at the line.
The first handicap of the day, a 0-145 hurdle is a typical full field of 25 with reserves. Mullins has seven in that, including three that came over for the Festival, running respectively in the 0-155 County Hurdle, the Coral Cup and Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ race. What chance Gentleman De Mee, the beaten favourite who set up the Martin Pipe for stablemate Galopin Des Champs when making the running, will have his day in the sun tomorrow dropping back to two miles?
With 19 runners on the opening day then 42, 23, 22 and 40 entered for the rest of the week it might look a foregone conclusion that Townend will hold on. The snag with Mullins though is that there’s multiple entries in so many of these races and they are all “off for their lives” – “up to a point” as William Boot, the hero of Evelyn Waugh’s hilarious novel “Scoop” might say. And that is as it should be.
Not everyone thought that a certain race at Lingfield the other day was totally kosher. Last Wednesday, seven horses lined up for a mile and a half novice race and Polling Day, trained by John and Thady Gosden and ridden by Frankie Dettori, was the 2-9 favourite following a smooth debut win over the course a month earlier.
Also in the line-up for the Gosdens was 16-1 shot Stowell, a Nat Rothschild-owned son of Zoffany making his debut under Rab Havlin. In an almost comic-cuts exhibition, Havlin managed to get his mount to finish a close second when it looked from the sidelines that he should have won comfortably.
The post-race interview by the local stewards provided lengthy ammunition for the Racing Post comments writer who reported Havlin’s saying that Stowell is a fragile colt with a high knee action. He said John Gosden had instructed him not to use his whip but that he should be ridden to get the best possible position.
I’ve spoken to plenty of trainers and they are all adamant. One said: “If those two horses had been trained by me, I’d have been looking at a lengthy ban!” Have a look yourselves. Seriously, it can seem in racing there’s often one rule for the chosen few and another for everyone else.
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Enrilo_bet365.jpg319830Tony Staffordhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngTony Stafford2021-04-26 08:37:152021-04-26 08:37:15Monday Musings: A Controversial End
The frost relented at three of Paul Nicholls’ most productive racecourses on Saturday morning and the 11-times champion National Hunt trainer took heavy toll with a remarkable seven winners, writes Tony Stafford. Kempton, Chepstow and above all Wincanton are the three.
At the same time he was emphatically (albeit inwardly) announcing that his re-building of stable strength back to that of its heyday when Kauto Star and Denman were in their pomp, has been fully achieved.
I was half aware of somebody being quoted on the television last night – definitely not in my favourite French-language and subtitled detective show Spiral on BBC4. It was: “Men can lie, women can lie, but numbers can’t!” The numbers are there for all to see in the 2020-21 jump trainers’ championship.
The Nicholls decline, if you could call it that, was characterised last season by a first failure in 19 to reach 100 wins, when 96 victories from 445 runs brought total UK prizemoney of £2.34million. Nicky Henderson, his sole realistic challenger over the past decade, won his fifth title and third of the last four with 118 winners and £2.54million in prizemoney.
That said, the normal post-Cheltenham section of the campaign with its handsome prizemoney levels especially at Aintree, Sandown’s finals day, and the Ayr Scottish Grand National meeting distorted the figures. Nicholls’ routine century would have been assured and the relatively close money margin for Henderson could easily have been bridged.
Henderson’s first interruption of a near-Martin Pipe-like monopoly for Nicholls since his first title in 2005-6 came in 2012-13, 27 years after his own first Trainers’ Championship in 1985-6. Henderson, now 70, lacks nothing in energy and horse-power but the die is already cast for 2020-21.
While Nicholls has been serenely proceeding towards title number 12 with already 107 victories and £1.46m in money won, Henderson is languishing on less than half the monetary rewards with £673K and just over half the winners, 57 from 268 runs, both well down on his normal schedule.
Considering the jumps season didn’t begin until July 1, Nicholls’s pace has been remarkable but so too has Dan Skelton’s 74 wins and £823k from 408 runs even allowing for the fact that his customary summer starting splurge has been abandoned – for the better – with some potential stars in the pot.
Lower down, some interesting names follow and Evan Williams, after his emotional capturing of the re-scheduled Coral Welsh Grand National with the heavily-backed and well-named in the circumstances favourite, Secret Reprieve, just edged over the half-million mark from only 30 wins.
Williams was talking up the prospects of Secret Reprieve’s tackling a Grand National at Aintree and he will be hoping on Tuesday morning to see the Ruckers’ seven-year-old getting a few pounds more than his present mark of 142 – he was able to run on Saturday off 8lb lower after his previous win. Secret Reprieve would probably make it into the top 40 with 142 but 145 makes it a certainty - if Covid doesn’t intervene again.
The next three trainers in the list, all within a winner or two of getting over the half-million are Messrs O’Neill, Fergal O’Brien and Twiston-Davies. Fergal’s consistent form has brought him to 70 compared to a previous best of 63 and with expansion firmly in place, a first century is the aim and seemingly a realistic one with three months to go, subject to acts of God, God forbid!
Nicholls’ Saturday seven-timer was also a contributor to another multi-winning performance on the day. Daryl Jacob must have gone to Wincanton confident of winning the opener on Ben Pauling’s highly-regarded Malinello but found Nicholls’ Flash Collonges, one of two Harry Skelton winners for his former boss, much too good.
I’ve no doubt that when that one lost he didn’t expect to win on five of his remaining six mounts.
The Nicholls winner for Jacob was Capeland, a 6-1 shot in the second most valuable race of the day there, the two-and-a-half-mile handicap chase and the jockey also won races for Robert Walford, Alan King, Pauling and Milton Harris.
Within that quintet, he collected the big race, the re-staged Dipper Novices Chase, just a three-runner affair, on Messire Des Obeaux, where Alan King’s gelding shocked odds-on Protektorat in a rare reverse for the Skeltons in recent times. Both Flash Collonges and Messire Des Obeaux are sons of the late-lamented Saddler Maker.
Jacob’s five-timer worked out at a massive 3275-1. Nicholls’ septet, while not quite his best - he’s had an eight-in-a-day before now – amounts to more than treble that at 10,418-1. Of course to get the latter up, you’d need to navigate the 11 losers that besmirched his record. Jacob has surged onto 39 wins for the season but the title-holder Brian Hughes, with 90, looks to have a strong grip on his trophy, currently having 15 and 19 in hand of the two Harrys, Cobden and Skelton.
It’s very unusual in the depths of winter that Ireland suffers more than the UK, but there has been a flurry of abandonments across the Irish Sea with frost as the principal factor. Whatever happened to the milder west winds picking up moisture as they sweep across the Atlantic?
The perennial struggle at the top of the table there between Willie Mullins and Gordon Elliott is as compelling as ever. Usually at this point in the season Elliott has been ahead but this time it’s the other way round.
Mullins has already gone past the century with 104 wins from only 326 runs to earn €2.18m at a spectacular 32% strike rate. An impressive 76 of the 162 individual horses he’s run since racing resumed have won.
Elliott is only around €70k behind Mullins in winnings but it has taken 125 wins from a bumper exactly 800 runs – almost double both Nicholls’ and Skelton’s number and treble Henderson’s – to get that close. Equally he has needed 292 horses, 90 of which have won, to make it that far.
Mullins is having his normal effect on the jockeys’ title race. Since Ruby Walsh’s retirement Paul Townend has been in pole position, but third-placed Henry de Bromhead’s 69 victories have given a big boost to Rachael Blackmore, his stable jockey.
Townend leads on 69, all but five for the Closutton trainer, but is far from secure for another title as Blackmore’s 46 wins for her boss have been supplemented by another 19 from outside rides making the deficit only four.
Talking of jockeys, the 2021 Flat championship will be very interesting given Oisin Murphy starts the year under a three-month ban imposed by the French authorities. He managed to get it reduced from the original six months on appeal and while it doesn’t interfere with the championship which starts in May, or the first phase of turf racing or indeed anything after March 11, it could still have an effect on his confidence.
No need to go into how he got the trace of drugs in his system. In these perilous times I wonder how many people contracting Covid, like my mate Steve Gilbey who said it was the most frightening experience of his life, know where they caught it. He says maybe it was Christmas shopping in Sainsburys.
Steve, a one-time repo man and night club bouncer before his more acceptable roles as a bodyguard and then Ray Tooth’s much-valued right-hand man, has seen and heard of many friends and some family members who haven’t managed to stave off the effects of the virus. I pray – as does Ray – that he’ll get through, just as I do that my son, his wife and their son, whose symptoms are less severe, will all recover soon.
Back to Flat jockeys, though, and as I said it could be a pivotal year. One Whatsapp I received just the other day made very interesting reading. It claimed that Ben Curtis would be joining Mark Johnston as stable jockey. Now confirmed as true, his odds of 10/1 for the title have plummeted to 3/1.
Mark’s most active jockeys, Joe Fanning and Franny Norton, both celebrated their 50th birthdays last year. Norton is the older by eight weeks, his birthday coming on July 27 to Fanning’s on September 24th (the same as my son incidentally!).
Between them they rode 56% of Johnston’s winners and 55% of the stable’s runners. Fanning was the busier – well, he’s younger, it makes sense! – with 50 wins from exactly 400 rides in 2020. Old-man Franny was only 75% as busy but just as tidy with his 45 from 300 rides. No other jockey achieved more than the 15 wins of P J McDonald. Then came William Buick and Silvestre De Sousa with ten each. Curtis had six wins from 35 rides for the stable.
Their longevity says much for their iron constitutions but even more for the amazing loyalty of the trainer. Had he not kept them on, riding many of the yard’s best horses as well as the majority of the lesser performers, they would probably have retired a while ago.
A second compelling item on the same Whatsapp message concerned Paul Mulrennan who it seems might be getting closer to a connection with Karl Burke. Interesting? Not many!
The Grand National fences have their first test of the season on Saturday, when the Becher chase is run over 3 miles 2 furlongs at Aintree. The race starts immediately after Valentines Brook, so is just shy of one and a half circuits of the National Course. Read more
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.png00IanShttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngIanS2013-12-05 06:59:352013-12-04 12:10:24Race Histories 12: The Becher Chase
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