Tag Archive for: Racing Insights

Racing Insights, Friday 20/01/23

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Friday's free feature, the Horses for Courses (H4C) report does exactly what it says on the tin ie it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track and is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting and as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but as ever please refer to our User Guide for further information!

My own settings (you get to choose your own parameters) for the H4C report...

...are quite restrictive and as such, have produced two qualifiers...

Our daily feature is always supplemented by a number of 'free' racecards, but this selection has been decimated by the current cold snap, leaving us with...

  • 2.20 Southwell
  • 5.45 Newcastle

The latter of those two looks the better contest on paper, so let's have a quick look at the 5.45 Newcastle, a 9-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a straight 5f...

Bert Kibbler is the only one to have won last time out and he comes here on a hat-trick after back to back wins at Southwell. Bellagio Man has made the frame in each of his last seven, including runner-up finishes in each of his last three outings. Modular Magic was also a runner-up LTO.

The bottom three on the card, Bert Kibbler, Modular Magic and Primo's Comet are all up a class, but top weight Papa Don't Preach drops in from from finishing 3rd of 6 at Class 3.

Maritime Rules is the only one yet to win at either trip or track, whilst Motawaazy and Primo's Comet have acheived both here at Newcastle. Bellagio Man's win over 6f here in November makes him the only other course winner, but he's the only other non-winner at 5f. Mind you he's only had one attempt!

Hat-trick seeking Bert Kibbler is not only up in class, but it's also his first run in just over a year, which might be problematical. Maritime Rules has had a seven-week break, but the remainder have all raced in the last three weeks with Papa Don't Preach, Motawaazy and Modular Magic all sighted inside the last week.

We already know that we've three course winners and seven distance winners, but Instant Expert tells me that we've five winners on Std/Slow and two winners on the A/W at this grade...

Motawaazy and Bert Kibbler catch the eye in a largely uninspiring set of figures. Perhaps place data might clarify a few things...

Well, it certainly helps me to eliminate Papa Don't Preach, Dusky Prince and Primo's Comet from my calculations on the basis that if you're scoring red for places, how likely are you to win? Bellagio Man may be 0/9 at this level, but with 7 placed finishes, he's certainly not discounted, especially with a full line of green. After taking those three runners out, my field looks like this in draw order...

...and as you can see, I've removed the two widest drawn runners, which according to our draw analyser, might not be the wisest decision...

..but it does boost the cause of Bert Kibbler in #7, I suppose and if he runs like he was doing last winter, he's the most likely to try to make all here...

...with Instant Expert place eyecatcher Bellagio Man the one to bring up the rear in the early stages. Let's now assess those races from the draw analyser for pace...

...and they're saying that Bert Kibbler's approach should work here, as the further back you race, the harder it is to win, as it is with most 5f contests.

The pace/draw heat map should therefore highlight a high drawn leader as a runner of serious interest...

...and it would suggest that Bert Kibbler is very well positioned.

Summary

Here I have a problem, the pace/draw heatmap is so stacked in Bert Kibbler's favour that it's hard to ignore, he has 3 wins and 2 places from 5 Tapeta runs over 5f and he does come here on a hat-trick. But there's bad news too, he hasn't raced for just over a year and he's up 8lbs and up in class, so he'd more likely be one for the places if he's not quite race sharp.

The other side of the coin is that I think Modular Magic and Bellagio Man are the best runners in the race (so does the market, sadly), but both are poorly drawn. The former will be closer to the pace than the latter, but the latter's consistency on the A/W is brilliant.

The truth is that I don't know who I think wins this, but if Modular Magic returns to front-running, he could shade it seeing as he lost by a short-head over course and distance a week ago after being unusually held up. He's currently 5/2, Bellagio Man is 9/2 and Bert Kibbler is 6/1. From a value perspective, you'd want the latter to win, but I just can't call it. I think that these are your placers, but none are long enough for me to back E/W, so I'll sit this one out.

Racing Insights, Thursday 19/01/23

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Did you know that the Instant Expert tab is by far the most popular tab on the geegeez racecards?

That's because it has the ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view. The report covers the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size. It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

This GOLD feature is so important that we make freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday alongside our usual selection of FREE races which, thanks to the weather have been reduced to...

  • 1.55 Wolverhampton
  • 7.30 Kempton

...and as a Class 2 Conditions Stakes should be better than a Class 5 fillies' maiden, we're off to the 7.30 Kempton, a 6-runner, Class 2 contest over  a right-handed 6f on standard to slow polytrack...

We should start with the elephant in the room, the faact that Annaf is very likely to go off as an odd-on favourite and he and Kiwano both won last time out, but Haziym and Tone The Barone are winless in at least five. Tinker Toy has a win and two runner-up finishes from his last four, whilst Aramis Grey goes one better with two wins and two runner-up spots.

Annaf is noted as a fast finisher and at just 5 days since his last run, he's the one who has had the least rest. Kiwano has also raced this year, but all six have been seen in the last month. Kiwano now steps up in class after his win 12 days ago.

Tinker Toy is the only one yet to win at the trip, whilst both Kiwano and Aramis Grey have both won over course and distance. It's not a handicap, of course, but based on official ratings vs weight, Tinker Toy is best off by a pound with Kiwano worst off.

Feature of the day, Instant Expert, is another positive vote for our fav...

Tone The Barone has proven himself in this grade and Kiwano is 2 from 2 here, whilst Aramis Grey's two wins and two runner-up finishes on this track isn't too shabby. She's 2 from 3 over course and distance whilst Kiwano has over 6f and 7f. The mare is, of course, very good over this trip. What the above doesn't tell you is that she has 6 wins and 7 further places from 17 under today's jockey.

She's drawn in stall 1 here with the fav in stall 4 and our draw analyser suggests the mare has the better of the two draws, but maybe not as good as Tinker Toy in box 2...

That said, it's a 6f sprint around a bend on the A/W and I've a feeling that Aramis Grey won't be the first to the turn based on this field's recent outings...

There's no automatic lead-out horse, but Kiwano is the one I'd expect to set the pace over a track and trip where, in fairness, only mid-division horses have struggled...

...which is probably the first negative for Annaf here.

Summary

Annaf should be winning this and if you've deep pockets, you could make some money but at the stakes I play at, odds of 10/11 don't excite me and to be honest I didn't think it was that clear-cut, 11/8 or 6/4 might be a fairer price. However, that means some of the others might be longer than expected.

If Annaf is set aside as a likely winner, I'll also set aside Tone The Barone and Haziym from my calculations. The former is winless in six and hasn't even looked like making the frame, plus he's on track debut here, whilst the latter was a well-beaten last of seven on his UK debut on Boxing Day.

This leaves me with three for one place and there's not much to separate the three, but 7/2 shot Tinker Toy is probably better over 7f and hasn't yet won on poly track, 4/1 priced Kiwano has a good record here at Kempton but is worst off at the weights by some margin, whilst the 9/1 price about Aramis Grey looks quite big to me. She's proven at the track, trip (track & trip!) and going, gets on great with her jockey and is in decent form (1122) giving her a reasonable shot at making the frame.

Racing Insights, Wednesday 18/01/23

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Our free feature for Wednesday is the Trainer Stats (TS) report which is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way! As ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

We also have our usual smattering of free fully functional racecards, but after Newbury's cancellation they just cover...

  • 3.10 Dundalk
  • 6.45 Southwell

My settings for the TS report...

...have sadly generated no horses to look at, so my dislike of Irish racing leaves me with Hobson's Choice, the 6.45 Southwell, a 7-runner, Class 5, Fillies' A/W handicap over a left handed 7f on standard tapeta...

Finery & Falesia Beach both won LTO and Cailin Saoirse made the frame, beaten by just two necks. She has, however, won two of her last four, butr the rest of the field is winless in five.

Divine Connection and Cailin Saoirse both step up from Class 6, whilst Finery and Theotherside step down from classes 4 and 3 respectively. Falesia Beach wears blinkers for the first time and the entire field has raced in the last six weeks with four of them (Finery, Queen of Burgundy, Divine Connection & Cailin Saoirse) already 'out' this year.

Instant Expert, our collateral form tool, says that all bar Theotherside and Grey Belle have won the A/W previously and of the five past A/W winners, three have won at Class 5, two have won here at Southwell and all five have scored over this trip. Theotherside does have a Class 5 win on turf, but Grey Belle's sole career win from fourteen starts was over a mile on turf...

LTO winner Finery's last seven runs have been on the A/W and she has 3 wins and 2 places from those efforts over the last four months and she's one of just two course and distance winners, the other being Falesia Beach. Finery is up 5lbs for last Tuesday's comfortable C&D success, but she clearly looks the one to beat on both recent form and Instant Expert. Theotherside has struggled here at Southwell, Grey Belle just doesn't win often enough and Divine Connection has too many going/distance failures to her name for my liking.

We have limited draw/pace data for Southwell with the tapeta track being little more than a year old, so we've made some minor tweaks to the filter parameters to get some data to work with as follows...

The basic premise here is that the higher the draw the better for win purposes with mid-draws best for places, but a quick look at stall-by-stall data...

...suggests there's not much in it and the stall 3-6 grouping has fared best. With regards to pace, again we've used the same parameters and again, there's not a great deal in it...

...and the lack of major bias for draw or pace is reflected by how much green there is on the pace/draw heat map...

Our field's last four outings have been run as follows...

...suggesting that Finery and Queen of Burgundy from stalls 2 and 6 might be the ones setting the fractions with Cailin Saoirse the likely back marker and when we put those average pace scores and the draw onto the heat map...

...the four most likely to succeed would appear to be Finery, Falesia Beach, Queen of Burgundy and Divine Connection

Summary

I'm of the opinion that in relatively small fields with little/no bias for draw and/or pace, then the best horses generally win and the two to beat here should be Finery and Falesia Beach and probably in that order.

That then leaves Queen of Burgundy and Divine Connection to fight it out for a place and heat map aside, the latter really doesn't tick any boxes.

Sadly the market has the same 1-2-3 as we've arrived at and they're best priced at 9/4, 7/2 and 4/1 respectively.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 17/01/23

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Fontwell was a washout on Monday, so figures crossed for some action on Tuesday where our free GOLD offering is the Shortlist, a simple – and usually brief – report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day. It covers win or place stats, and can be viewed for both today’s and tomorrow’s racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation is – and has always been – that the Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form - and its odds - imply, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

This usually brief report looks like this for Tuesday with a couple of races of interest...

...and this free list is complemented by the following 'races of the day'...

  • 2.50 Clonmel
  • 3.00 Chepstow
  • 7.00 Southwell
  • 8.30 Southwell

And I suppose with two of the three Shortlist horses running in a 'free' race, I should be focusing on the 3.00 Chepstow, where Emmpressive Lady and Come On Gruff will take on eight others in a Class 3, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over 2m3½f on soft (heavy in places) ground...

None of these managed to win last time out, but Come On Gruff did at least make the frame, beaten by little more than half a length after a three mile slog at Kempton. Conversely Emmpressive Lady was the only one of these to fail get round on their recent outings, although she had entered that race seeking a hat-trick. Come On Gruff won three and five starts back and New Found Fame won four back on debut, but the rest of the field are winless in five.

He now makes just a second handicap appearance, as does top-weight Iamastar who is sporting first-time cheekpieces and a tongue tie after being well beaten on his UK debut two months ago at this grade. Speaking of class, Gladiateur Allen , Kateson & Ballyellis all drop a class, whilst Come On Gruff moves the other way from Class 4.

Most of this field have won over a similar trio with top-weight Iamastar and bottom-weight Blacko the two exceptions, but only Kateson has won here at Chepstow, having prevailed over 2m4f some 50 months ago.

Eight of the field have raced in the last eight weeks, but Emmpressive Lady's last outing was eleven months ago, whilst Ballyellis hasn't been sighted since August 2021. The 10 yr old could be excused for being a bit rusty, but he did win over 2m at Fakenham 22 months ago coming off a break of 14 months, so his layoff might not be the negative you'd expect and with two wins and a place from four on soft ground, he might be a surprise contender here.

The Instant Expert stats for this field show that all bar Iamastar have at least one win on soft/heavy ground, we've got half a dozen previous Class 3 winners and as per above 8 distance winners, but just to have won here at Chepstow...

The stats suggest that Emmpressive Lady & Alnadam are proven in the mud and the former probably makes most appeal of all ten on that graphic which also highlights that the bottom four in the weights all now carry at least 10lbs less than their last win over hurdles, whilst both Come On Gruff and Alnadam are rated at least half a stone higher than their last wins.

Our pace analyser says that leaders make the frame more than any other approach, but they are often beaten by prominent runners sitting in behind them primed for a run...

...as 42% of placed prominent runners go on to win, but only 18.2% of leaders hang on. One in three mid-divisional running placers have gone on to win, which is better than the 29.2% of hold-up horses. As we log each UK run, we can now see how this field have approached their last four races...

And based on the above, I'd expect Kateson & Blacko to set the pace with Ballyellis & Come On Gruff the prominent chasers. Mid-division is where we'll probably see Alnadam, Emmpressive Lady and Gladiateur Allen with New Found Fame & Forecast our hold-up horses. I've purposely left Iamastar out of those assumptions, as I don't know enough about his running style to formualte an assumption.

Summary

After the above, I fully expected Come On Gruff to be the favourite at around 5/2, which he is at 4.30pm with Bet365, meaning that Hills' 10/3 might offer some good value at the sharp end of the market. He's in decent enough form, scores well on Instant Expert and has a good pace profile for this race and I'd expect him to be the one they all need to beat. Our other Shortlist runner, the only mare in the race, Emmpressive Lady, will need to come from a bit further back but I'd expect her to be involved late on and should be good enough for a place, but I'd need more than the current 11/2 to tempt me into an E/W flutter there.

If there was to be an E/W option, then Alnadam at 17/2 might provide it. He hasn't tackled hurdles since winning over this trip at Hereford 22 months ago on soft ground and has spent that time getting beaten over fences, but he now reverts to the smaller hurdles 8lbs higher than that win, but some 2lbs lower than his most recent win (over fences 11 months ago).

Racing Insights, Monday 16/01/22

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The pace tab on our racecards gives valuable insight into not only how every race is likely to be run, but also what the best run styles are in the given conditions and using this feature will keep you one step ahead of the masses. It's such an essential facet of betting that we make this information freely available to all readers for all races every Sunday and Monday, including of course, our free races of the day...

  • 1.10 Hereford
  • 1.20 Punchestown
  • 2.30 Fontwell
  • 3.40 Hereford

And as that list contains an Irish race and two UK novices events, my dislike of both leads me to the 2.30 Fontwell. It might well be low on numbers and there may well be a very short priced fav, but we might get a nice placer for the forecast,  it's not a bad standard of race and it's a stayers' contest on tricky ground (a 5-runner, Class 3, 5yo+ handicap chase over 3m2f on heavy ground) as follows...

Coolvalla is four from five and comes here on the back of three straight wins. Premier D'Troice was placed LTO but Putdecashonthedash and Alminar both failed to complete, whilst Echo Watt is the only one without a win in their last five runs (eleven to be precise!).

Putdecashonthedash and Alminar both raced at this grade three weeks ago, but Coolvalla & Premier D'Troice are up one class with Echo Watt up two levels. All five ran 21 or 26 days ago.

All bar bottom-weight Echo Watt have won at a similar trip to this one, whilst all bar Putdecashonthedash and Alminar have won here at Fontwell with both Premier D'Troice & Coolvalla successful over course and distance, a feat achieved by the latter LTO and three starts back.

Instant Expert highlights these and other stats...

As you can see, all have won on heavy ground, which is a start and the top two on the card seem to make most appeal here. Likely short-priced fav Coolvalla is only 1/4 on heavy, but has also won three of four on soft. Putdecashonthedash and Alminar have both struggled at this grade and are probably Class 4 horses at best.

COOLVALLA won just once from six races over hurdles, but has been a revelation over fences, winning all three efforts culminating in a 19 lengths course and distance rout on Boxing Day. He has been stung with an 11lb rise as shown above, but I doubt that's enough to anchor him.

PREMIER D'TROICE was a runner up here over C&D back in May before scoring over this trip at Uttoxeter six weeks alter. Has struggled in a couple of races off 7/8lbs higher, but was third last time out off a mark of 117 (3 higher than his last win) and now eased another couple of pounds, could go well again.

PUTDECASHONTHEDASH hasn't raced much of late and last won almost a year when landing a Class 4 chase over this trip on good ground at Plumpton. He was then off the track for ten months and was pulled up on his return at Wincanton in early December. His only outing since then was on Boxing Day back at Wincanton where he fell halfway through the race.

ALMINAR was a surprising winner at Ffos Las two months ago when landing a 3m soft ground Class 4 chase despite not having raced for 17 months, but hasn't backed that run up in two starts since. He was 7th of 11, beaten by 31 lengths at Exeter and was subsequently puled up at Wincanton on Boxing Day in the same race that Putdecashonthedash was a faller.

ECHO WATT was a runner-up here in early November, 7 lengths behind Coolvalla, on his return from a nine month break, but unseated his rider next time out in what was the first of three Class 5 2m6½f/2m7½f chases at Lingfield. The middle race saw him second of twelve, beaten by nearly six lengths and most recently he was fourth of ten, more than twenty five lengths adrift. Up two classes and 3½f here on the back of eleven defeats, he'd be an unlikely winner for me even if he is now 27lbs better of with the fav.

Today's feature is, of course, pace and based upon a system of 1 = held-up, 2 = ran in mid-division, 3 = raced prominently and 4 = led or was one of the leaders, this is how the field have raced in their last four respective starts...

Coolvalla's last three are his entire chase career and with a 3 and a 4 in there, I'd expect him to be prominent here, Premier D'Troice is essentially a hold-up horse, Putdecashonthedash will want to set the pace with Echo Watt racing prominently and Alminar little further back but ahead of Premier D'Troice. I know I've made a couple of assumptions/surmisations there, but I'd expect them to head out in this order...
4 : Putdecashonthedash / Coolvalla
3 : Echo Watt
2 : Alminar
1 : Premier D'Troice

A quick look at the Geegeez Pace Analyser for past similar races shows...

...that leaders fare much better than any other running style with hold-up horses having a good place record.

Summary

The pace analyser points to a leader winning the race and with Putdecashonthedash inspiring very little confidence from recent runs, that leaves us with the fav Coolvalla. And if the hold-up horses make the frame in these small fields, then that points towards Premier D'Troice, but does that fit in with the rest of my quick analysis?

Well, yes! They bring the best form to the table, scored best on Instant Expert, they're the two C&D winners and carry the least amounts of doubts of the five at play here.

I don't however, see Premier beating the fav, so in my eyes, it's the 4/6 Coolvalla beating the 7/1 Premier D'Troice. I don't like backing odd-on jollies, but that's up to you. I do like playing the exacta/forecast type of bets and at 7/1 in a five-horse race, Premier D'Troice could be an attractive E/W proposition.

Racing Insights, Saturday 14/01/23

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following for me to consider...

...in addition to our selection of daily 'free' races...

  • 12.35 Lingfield
  • 1.45 Lingfield
  • 1.57 Wetherby
  • 2.32 Wetherby
  • 2.40 Kempton

The sharper-eyed amongst will have noticed that one runner from my TJC Report goes in one of our free races, which means I should take a look at that race. I wouldn't normally go anywhere near this kind of race normally (too many runners!), but shall we see if we can quickly identify a possible E/W bet or two in the Lanzarote? That's the 2.40 Kempton on your cards and it's a 20-runner, Class 2, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over 2m5f on soft ground. Our selection from the TJC Report won the race last year for the same trainer/jockey combo and here's how they line up...

FORM : Scarface comes here on a hat-trick but Red Risk, Quinta do Mar, Fifty Ball, Green Glory, Outlaw Peter, Mark of Gold & Rathmacknee all won last time out and the last three on that have won two of their last three, whilst Whizz Kid and Hermes Boy are both winless in five.

CLASS : Ten of these (Pentland Hills, last year's winner Cobblers Dream, Quinta Do Mar, West Balboa, Fifty Ball, Outlaw Peter, Up for Parol, Dubrovnik Harry, Rathmacknee & Hermes Boy) all move up one class and Mark of Gold steps up two levels, but top weight Camprond and Stag Horn both drop down from Class 1 (Gr2 and Gr1 respectively), leaving just seven who ran at this grade LTO.

ANYTHING NEW/DIFFERENT : No new headgear or any wind ops, but Pentland Hills, West Balboa & Green Glory make just their second handicap starts, whilst class dropper Stag Horn & Outlaw Peter are both on handicap debut.

COURSE/DISTANCE FORM : Last year's winner (obviously!) Cobblers Dream has won over course and distance, as has Outlaw Peter, but we've no other Kempton winners. However Red Risk, Stag Horn, Harbour Lake, Shantou Express, West Balboa, Fifty Ball, Rathmacknee and Scarface have all scored over similar trip to this 2m5f one.

LAST RACE : At 276, 281 and 293 days respectively, Up For Parol, Stag Horn and Fifty Ball all return from at least nine months 'rest'. Outlaw Peter was last seen ten weeks ago, but the remainder have all raced in the last two months with Hermes Boy out as recently as a fortnight ago as a Uttoxeter runner-up on New Year's Eve.

AGE : Petit Tonnerre is the 'baby' of the pack, taking on 5 x 6yos, 9 x 7yos and 5 x 8yos in a race that 6yos have fared best in over the last 25 years.

In addition to the course/distance winners above, eleven of these have won on soft ground already and five have won at this grade, as documented here by Instant Expert...

...where Stag Horn looks pretty well suited by conditions. Pentland Hills, Up for Parol and Hermes Boy don't have great soft ground form and Red Risk has a poor record at Class 2 with Whizz Kid also 0/4 at this level. Quinta Do Mar doesn't look like he'll be suited by the race either, but most of these to have tackled the trip have done well enough.

The report about last year's race said of the winners, Cobblers Dream..."prominent, led before 2 out, ridden after 2 out, not fluent last, stayed on strongly run-in ..." as he won by 5.5 lengths and although the sample size is fairly small, I'd suggest that such an approach is going to pan out better than being held up...

...which based on their most recent outings...

...probably doesn't bode well for all those from Mark of Gold downwards, excepting perhaps Cobblers Dream and Harbour Lake.

Summary

It's a pretty open-looking race to be fair, but the standouts are Scarface, Outlaw Peter, Mark of Gold & Rathmacknee on form. Cobblers Dream and Outlaw Peter have won over course and distance and Stag Horn caught the eye on Instant Expert. I also want to be in the upper half of the pace chart and based on everything above, the ones that interest me most are Scarface, Outlaw Peter, Rathmacknee, Cobblers Dream and Stag Horn.

I think all five have a decent chance of making the frame, whilst Outlaw Peter might not be a bad win shout at 7/1 and with most bookies paying six places (Sky pay seven!), you could make a pretty good E/W case for Scarface, Rathmacknee, Cobblers Dream and Stag Horn at odds of 20/1, 18/1, 18/1 and 14/1 respectively.

Good Luck and have a great weekend.

 

Racing Insights, Friday 13/01/23

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Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the H4C report...

...have yielded the following trio of  qualifiers for Friday...

...and I can still fall back upon our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 2.40 Lingfield
  • 3.00 Huntingdon
  • 3.30 Huntingdon
  • 3.55 Dundalk
  • 4.00 Huntingdon

Three on the bounce from Huntingdon hardly seems random, but that's the luck of the draw and I think I'm going to shun the free races to look at the two H4C report horses in the 3.40 Lingfield, a 7-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ fillies A/W handicap over a left-handed 1m2f on standard polytrack...

No LTO winners here, but Rikona won two starts ago and was a runner-up on her last outing. Sundayinmay was also a recent runner-up, as she has been three times in her last five contests. Elsewhere no real form to consider.

D Day Odette has made the frame just once in her eight winless race career and she now drops in class to run here, but both Sundayinmay and Miss Elsa step up a level. Connections of another 8-race maiden, Thefastnthecurious, will hope that a first-time visor helps their mare make the frame for the first on the A/W after three failures to date.

Yet despite the field's apparent poor form and lack of wins, three of the seven (Rikona, Midgetonamission and Miss Elsa) have all scored over course and distance, whilst Sundayinmay is two from three over a mile and a half on this track. Star from Afarhh, like the two maidens mentioned above, has failed to win at either track or trip.

She (Star) has been off the track the longest of this group, but at 37 days since her last run, the lay-off shouldn't really matter. Only Rikona has raced in 2023, finishing half a length behind the winner over 1m3f at Southwell on New Year's Day. She's one of four 4 yr olds in the race with Miss Elsa the "veteran" at seven!

With this field having a combined win & place percentages of 11.48% and 31.97% respectively (39 places including 14 wins from a combined 122 starts), I'm not to hopeful of gleaning much from Instant Expert, but you never know until you look...

We're obviously only going to get reds from the two maidens at the top of the card and most of these have toiled at Class 5, but Miss Elsa has respectable figures at least, especially just on the All-Weather and at 16lbs lower than her last win, might be well weighted here. The two runners drawn lowest have the best records here at Lingfield. With the lack of much data action above, I think I should see if the overall & A/W place figures can help us...

...where Rikona looks a very strong candidate to make the frame here, as do Sundayinmay and Miss Elsa. Midgetonamission loves it here at Lingfield and gets the trip readily, but all her form is at Class 6. It's interesting (to me, anyway) that the two that look best on that last graphic are drawn at polar opposites in the stalls in berths 1 and 7, so it's time to consult the draw analyser to see which, if any, of them might be best suited. My usual caveat is in place, of course, that over 10f, the draw should have the same effect as over 5f, but let's check that draw analyser...

And aside from what looks an anomalous set of figures for stall 4 (poor Star from Afarhh), my caveat seems to be pretty accurate. Yes high draws do better than low draws, but if you look at the actual data, there's really very little in it...

The Pace Analyser, however, does give us more to work with from those races above...

...showing a pretty clear advantage to biding one's time in mid-division. We log how every horse runs in the UK and we can show you the last four outings for each of these seven runners and it's a score of around 2 we're looking for. Higher is OK, but hold-up horses haven't done well at all..

...and we've got a mixed bag here. Miss Elsa likes to race prominently, but tends not to lead. Rikona's best form has come from a hold-up position. I'd expect Thefastnthecurious to be fairly advanced in the field with Miss Elsa. Sundayinmay and D Day Odette look like our mid-div runners we were looking for and although Star from Afarrh led last time out, I suspect she'll be held up with Midgetonamission.

There's a fair bit of conjecture and interpretation there, admittedly, but I think Sundayinmay just about shades the pace verdict, as she marginally did on draw. We can combine the draw & pace data to form our unique Geegeez heat maps as follow...

...where mid to high drawn mid div runners win most often closely followed by the high drawn leaders, whilst the high drawn mid-div runners & leaders again score well on places. Based on what we've seen above, here's how I think the race might unfold in draw order...

In truth, I think it's going to be a falsely-run race with nobody really wanting to take it on and that would just play into the hands of the 'better' runners here. A few of these might be better off breaking out and having a go at it, most are expected to lose anyway.

Summary

For me the two best runners in the race are Rikona and Sundayinmay, sadly the bookies (as of 4.50pm) agree with me and have them as 11/8 and 5/2 market principals and it's probably an indictment of how poor the race is when the top weight and 8-race maiden (D  Day Odette) is next in line at 4/1. If any were to emerge from the pack to challenge the favourites, then Midgetonamission certainly loves it here and at 18/1 with both Hills & Bet365 paying three places, she might be worth a couple of pennies as an E/W interest.

The 1-2, however, should be Rikona and Sundayinmay and I think I'd like the latter from the H4C report to beat the former.

 

 

Racing Insights, Thursday 12/01/23

/in /by

Thursday's feature of the day is full access for all readers to the Instant Expert tab on the racecards. This is by far the most popular tab in the geegeez racecards. The reason? It has the ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view.

The report covers the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size. It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all. And every Thursday we make this open to all readers for all races, including our free ones, which will be...

  • 12.15 Clonmel
  • 2.50 Catterick
  • 3.35 Newcastle
  • 3.55 Catterick

As ever, I do like to look at the extremes of racing and that leads me to the 2.50 Catterick, a 7-runner, Class 3, 5yo+ handicap chase over 3m6f on heavy ground...

None of these come here off the back of a winning run, but Bushypark and the sole mare in the race, Legend's Ryde, did at least make the frame whilst Burbank, Cyclop & Sam's Adventure all failed to finish. Burbank and legend's Ryde are the only two with a 'recent' win. Burbank and Sam's Adventure both now drop down from Class 2 and the latter now wears a first-time visor, whilst Cyclop's last outing was in a Class 1 handicap.

Bushypark was a runner-up last Saturday after having been pulled up in all four runs in 2022 and he's back out just five days later. That said, all his rivals have raced in the last six weeks. The mare Legend's Ryde is the 'baby' of the field at the age of eight, whilst Cyclops, the sole distance winner is now the ripe old age of 12.

Feature of the day is Instant Expert, so let's look at this field's overall NH form and also just chase stats...

Generally Burbank and Thunderosa haven't gone well in the mud and the latter is probably the weakest runner in the race and hasn't really impressed at in making the frame just once in ten starts over fences. Four of these are Class 3 winners, although it has taken Cyclops thirty races to amass just three wins, but he is also the only distance winner in the field. Only Thunderosa has raced here previously.

Onto chase form...

...which looks a little more promising from a going/class perspective, but no real stand-out candidate. Thunderosa still looks the weakest, as he did when last home of four here on New Year's Day. He was held up in rear that day and never landed a blow in a near-40 length defeat. Those tactics were unusual for a horse who normally races towards the head of affairs as shown on our pace logs...

...and if reverts to his usual tactics, he could well keep Bushypark company in the early stages of a race on a track that hasn't been too kind to hold-up horses in staying chases in the mud...

...but those leading the way have thrived and I suspect this will help Bushypark more than Thunderosa who has yet to prove himself as a stayer.

Summary

The one I initially like here is Legend's Ryde. She ran well at Cheltenham last out and was third of six in a Listed race in November. She likes the mud and gets on really well with jockey Gavin Sheehan and with three wins/two further places from nine over fences, she's a good benchmark for this field.

My doubts about her stem from the fact that she's only gone beyond three miles on four occasions and has never raced further than her 3m2½f win at Fontwell last March. I've had a quick look at the market and I can't back her at 3/1, it's just too short for me with those doubts about the trip.

The other one posing a conundrum is 5/2 favourite Bushypark. He won over hurdles in Feb'21 and then next time out, but over fences nearly ten months later off a mark of 132. He was raised to 137 and toiled, going down by almost 90 lengths at the end of 2021.

He was then pulled up in all four runs last year, but was then a runner-up at Newcastle last week, only headed late on in a 1.5 length defeat. He's unexposed (3 starts inc 1 win) over fences and is 13lbs lower than his last winning mark and if in the same mood as last week, should be the one to beat. 5/2 is a bit skinny, but i think that's down to a lack of real opposition.