Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.
HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.
My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...
...and they have generated the following for me to consider...
...in addition to our selection of daily 'free' races...
- 12.35 Lingfield
- 1.45 Lingfield
- 1.57 Wetherby
- 2.32 Wetherby
- 2.40 Kempton
The sharper-eyed amongst will have noticed that one runner from my TJC Report goes in one of our free races, which means I should take a look at that race. I wouldn't normally go anywhere near this kind of race normally (too many runners!), but shall we see if we can quickly identify a possible E/W bet or two in the Lanzarote? That's the 2.40 Kempton on your cards and it's a 20-runner, Class 2, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over 2m5f on soft ground. Our selection from the TJC Report won the race last year for the same trainer/jockey combo and here's how they line up...
FORM : Scarface comes here on a hat-trick but Red Risk, Quinta do Mar, Fifty Ball, Green Glory, Outlaw Peter, Mark of Gold & Rathmacknee all won last time out and the last three on that have won two of their last three, whilst Whizz Kid and Hermes Boy are both winless in five.
CLASS : Ten of these (Pentland Hills, last year's winner Cobblers Dream, Quinta Do Mar, West Balboa, Fifty Ball, Outlaw Peter, Up for Parol, Dubrovnik Harry, Rathmacknee & Hermes Boy) all move up one class and Mark of Gold steps up two levels, but top weight Camprond and Stag Horn both drop down from Class 1 (Gr2 and Gr1 respectively), leaving just seven who ran at this grade LTO.
ANYTHING NEW/DIFFERENT : No new headgear or any wind ops, but Pentland Hills, West Balboa & Green Glory make just their second handicap starts, whilst class dropper Stag Horn & Outlaw Peter are both on handicap debut.
COURSE/DISTANCE FORM : Last year's winner (obviously!) Cobblers Dream has won over course and distance, as has Outlaw Peter, but we've no other Kempton winners. However Red Risk, Stag Horn, Harbour Lake, Shantou Express, West Balboa, Fifty Ball, Rathmacknee and Scarface have all scored over similar trip to this 2m5f one.
LAST RACE : At 276, 281 and 293 days respectively, Up For Parol, Stag Horn and Fifty Ball all return from at least nine months 'rest'. Outlaw Peter was last seen ten weeks ago, but the remainder have all raced in the last two months with Hermes Boy out as recently as a fortnight ago as a Uttoxeter runner-up on New Year's Eve.
AGE : Petit Tonnerre is the 'baby' of the pack, taking on 5 x 6yos, 9 x 7yos and 5 x 8yos in a race that 6yos have fared best in over the last 25 years.
In addition to the course/distance winners above, eleven of these have won on soft ground already and five have won at this grade, as documented here by Instant Expert...
...where Stag Horn looks pretty well suited by conditions. Pentland Hills, Up for Parol and Hermes Boy don't have great soft ground form and Red Risk has a poor record at Class 2 with Whizz Kid also 0/4 at this level. Quinta Do Mar doesn't look like he'll be suited by the race either, but most of these to have tackled the trip have done well enough.
The report about last year's race said of the winners, Cobblers Dream..."prominent, led before 2 out, ridden after 2 out, not fluent last, stayed on strongly run-in ..." as he won by 5.5 lengths and although the sample size is fairly small, I'd suggest that such an approach is going to pan out better than being held up...
...which based on their most recent outings...
...probably doesn't bode well for all those from Mark of Gold downwards, excepting perhaps Cobblers Dream and Harbour Lake.
Summary
It's a pretty open-looking race to be fair, but the standouts are Scarface, Outlaw Peter, Mark of Gold & Rathmacknee on form. Cobblers Dream and Outlaw Peter have won over course and distance and Stag Horn caught the eye on Instant Expert. I also want to be in the upper half of the pace chart and based on everything above, the ones that interest me most are Scarface, Outlaw Peter, Rathmacknee, Cobblers Dream and Stag Horn.
I think all five have a decent chance of making the frame, whilst Outlaw Peter might not be a bad win shout at 7/1 and with most bookies paying six places (Sky pay seven!), you could make a pretty good E/W case for Scarface, Rathmacknee, Cobblers Dream and Stag Horn at odds of 20/1, 18/1, 18/1 and 14/1 respectively.
Good Luck and have a great weekend.
