Racing Insights, Thursday 19/01/23 geegeez.co.uk

Did you know that the Instant Expert tab is by far the most popular tab on the geegeez racecards?

That's because it has the ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view. The report covers the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size. It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

This GOLD feature is so important that we make freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday alongside our usual selection of FREE races which, thanks to the weather have been reduced to...

1.55 Wolverhampton
7.30 Kempton

...and as a Class 2 Conditions Stakes should be better than a Class 5 fillies' maiden, we're off to the 7.30 Kempton, a 6-runner, Class 2 contest over a right-handed 6f on standard to slow polytrack...

We should start with the elephant in the room, the faact that Annaf is very likely to go off as an odd-on favourite and he and Kiwano both won last time out, but Haziym and Tone The Barone are winless in at least five. Tinker Toy has a win and two runner-up finishes from his last four, whilst Aramis Grey goes one better with two wins and two runner-up spots.

Annaf is noted as a fast finisher and at just 5 days since his last run, he's the one who has had the least rest. Kiwano has also raced this year, but all six have been seen in the last month. Kiwano now steps up in class after his win 12 days ago.

Tinker Toy is the only one yet to win at the trip, whilst both Kiwano and Aramis Grey have both won over course and distance. It's not a handicap, of course, but based on official ratings vs weight, Tinker Toy is best off by a pound with Kiwano worst off.

Feature of the day, Instant Expert, is another positive vote for our fav...

Tone The Barone has proven himself in this grade and Kiwano is 2 from 2 here, whilst Aramis Grey's two wins and two runner-up finishes on this track isn't too shabby. She's 2 from 3 over course and distance whilst Kiwano has over 6f and 7f. The mare is, of course, very good over this trip. What the above doesn't tell you is that she has 6 wins and 7 further places from 17 under today's jockey.

She's drawn in stall 1 here with the fav in stall 4 and our draw analyser suggests the mare has the better of the two draws, but maybe not as good as Tinker Toy in box 2...

That said, it's a 6f sprint around a bend on the A/W and I've a feeling that Aramis Grey won't be the first to the turn based on this field's recent outings...

There's no automatic lead-out horse, but Kiwano is the one I'd expect to set the pace over a track and trip where, in fairness, only mid-division horses have struggled...

...which is probably the first negative for Annaf here.

Summary

Annaf should be winning this and if you've deep pockets, you could make some money but at the stakes I play at, odds of 10/11 don't excite me and to be honest I didn't think it was that clear-cut, 11/8 or 6/4 might be a fairer price. However, that means some of the others might be longer than expected.

If Annaf is set aside as a likely winner, I'll also set aside Tone The Barone and Haziym from my calculations. The former is winless in six and hasn't even looked like making the frame, plus he's on track debut here, whilst the latter was a well-beaten last of seven on his UK debut on Boxing Day.

This leaves me with three for one place and there's not much to separate the three, but 7/2 shot Tinker Toy is probably better over 7f and hasn't yet won on poly track, 4/1 priced Kiwano has a good record here at Kempton but is worst off at the weights by some margin, whilst the 9/1 price about Aramis Grey looks quite big to me. She's proven at the track, trip (track & trip!) and going, gets on great with her jockey and is in decent form (1122) giving her a reasonable shot at making the frame.

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