Tag Archive for: Racing Insights

Racing Insights, Wednesday 08/02/23

/in /by

Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 1.15 Fairyhouse
  • 1.45 Fairyhouse
  • 2.30 Ludlow
  • 6.30 Kempton

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have generated the following runners for me to consider...

...and I think I'll see how the in-form yard gets on against the 1-year course specialist in the 7.00 Kempton, where Olympic Quest and Bernadine from my TS report are two of the nine runners tackling a Class 6, 3yo A/W handicap over a right handed mile on standard to slow polytrack...

An unusual race here in that females outnumber the males with runners 1, 5, 7 & 9 being the boys (only #5 Fully Deployed has been gelded) and it's a race lacking in experience. They've only raced 44 times between them so far and of that 44, numbers 1, 6 & 7 (Outrace, Bernadine & Greavsie) account for 24 with the other six runners out just three or four times. The three most experienced runners are the only previous winners too and all have won here at Kempton already.

Outrace & Bernadine both won over course and distance last time out, whilst Greavsie was a three-quarter length runner-up over track & trip. He did, however, win here over 7f two months ago and has won over a mile at Ffos Las back in September. I suspect that this might become a three-horse race, as the rest of the field haven't even made the frame in twenty combined starts. The three 'most likely' contenders all ran at this grade LTO, as did Fully Deployed but the other five all drop in class and it's a handicap debut for Olympic Quest and Paco's Pride, whilst Fully Deployed and Top of the Class tackle a handicap for just the second time.

The latter has been off the track the longest at 127 days, but aside from bottom-weight Double Down's 10-week absence, the rest have all been seen in the last 25 days with both Outrace and Greavsie running here a week ago. It's the second time in a hood for Olympic Quest and a second race since being gelded for Fully Deployed, whilst the bottom two on the card, Martini Lodge & Double Down will be sporting new headgear in the form of cheekpieces and a visor respectively.

We know that we're not going to get much from Instant Expert, but it's useful to see how many times the field has tackled similar conditions...

And at this point, Greavsie would look the weakest of the more experienced trio. Whilst of those with no data, Top of the Class has only raced at 6/7f in Class 3-5 contests and Paco's Pride has three 7f runs at Class 4/5 to her name as does Martini Lodge.

In past similar contests here at Kempton, stalls 4, 6 and 9 have an inexplicably poor record, but I'm not convinced that there's a huge draw bias here...

...which means that the actual pace of the race might be the aspect to focus on. All nine have had at least three runs to date, so we'll hopefully have enough data to see a pattern forming as to their running style(s)...

...where it looks like Outrace will attempt to set the fractions from stall 4, attempting to get across the likes of Fully Deployed and Double Down in boxes 3 & 1 respectively. Conversely Greavsie looks like he will dropped in at the back for a late surge, but the pace stats for those races above suggest he'd be better off stepping up a gear somewhat earlier...

Summary

I'd be surprised if this race didn't go to one of the three more experienced runners Outrace, Bernadine & Greavsie. Of the three Greavsie has looked weakest on form, Instant Expert and pace and I prefer Outrace over Bernadine on the very same grounds. If none of the less exposed runners break into the top three, then I'd expect an Outrace-Bernadine-Greavsie 1-2-3 but sadly the market agrees with Outrace installed as a 3/1 favourite with my other pair at 4's.

 

 

Racing Insights, Tuesday 07/02/23

/in /by

The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information] and here is Tuesday's Shortlist...

...where the 2.45 Market Rasen contest is of obvious interest. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover this trio from the Black Country...

  • 6.00 Wolverhampton
  • 7.00 Wolverhampton
  • 8.30 Wolverhampton

And although the clash of two Shortlist runners at Market Rasen appeals to me, they're both likely to be fairly popular in the market and the middle of our three 'free' A/W races looks an interesting affair where I'd guess the top six or seven in the market will be covered by about 4 or 5 points. That race is, of course, the 7.00 Wolverhampton, an 11-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left handed 7f on standard tapeta...

And as well as expecting a close market, the 2nd to 8th runners in the weights will only have a 3lb spread with two of them coming here off the back of a win last time out : Keyser Soze and Jilly Cooper. Of the rest, only Amber Island, Larado, Master Zoffany and Revolutionise have a win in their visible form line, although Tylos has been a runner-up in each of his last two.

Tylos actually drops down from Class 2 to run here, as do top-weight Moai and Farhh To Shy with Larado dropping in from a Listed race last weekend. As with four class droppers, we also have four stepping up, all from Class 4 and they are LTO winners Keyser Soze and Jilly Cooper along with Revolutionise and Counsel.

Moai runs in a handicap for just the second time (15 lengths, last of 10, a fortnight ago!), whilst Tylos now wears cheekpieces for the first time to hopefully get a bit more of him in a bid to land a second course and distance success. Amber Island, Master Zoffany, Jilly Cooper and Revolutionise have also all won over this 7f  trip here in the past and all bar top-weight Moai and bottom weight Perseverants have scored over this distance somewhere, but the C&D winners are the only previous course winners.

Amber Island returns from the longest break, but shouldn't have got too rusty in a 6-week rest, whilst Larado is pitched back in three days after a Listed race and 8 of the 11 have raced in the last 20 days. We know that most of these have won at today's trip, but not many have scored at Class 3 on the A/W, according to Instant Expert...

...but a few of them have good place numbers at this level...

...somewhat (if not totally) allaying my fears about both Amber Island & Keyser Soze only having 1 from 7 records at Class 3. Elsewhere Amber Island was third over C&D LTO and remains 6lbs higher than her last win, four starts ago, whilst Revolutionise (who looks solidly if unspectacularly consistent on IE) is 5lbs higher than his last win. The ones obviously catching the eye from above are Tylos, Master Zoffany and Jilly Cooper, three of our course and distance winners.

If we look at past 11-runner contests over 7f here at Wolverhampton, our Draw Analyser says...

...stalls 1 to 7 are the best place to run from, whilst the Pace stats from those same races suggest...

...that leader/prominent runners are twice as likely to win those further back in the pack and this is further highlighted by the pace/draw heat map...

Although stalls 1 to 7 were favoured on the draw stats, the heat map above does tend to imply that pace is more important than draw, so let's now look at who might (based on recent evidence) be the ones racing in the upper half of the field...

And whilst not all runners run the same way every time they turn out, I'm fairly confident that Larado will be trying to blast out of stall 6 in a bid to make all, whilst Keyser Soze is generally a slow/poor starter. And for more recent runs, here's how the field's last two races have panned out...

...which does suggest that Jilly Cooper is the one most likely to chase Larado.

Summary

Three of the course and distance winners caught the eye on Instant Expert : Tylos, Master Zoffany and Jilly Cooper. Jilly Cooper comes here in the best form of any of this field, having finished 1252731 over the last four months. That run includes three course and distance efforts with results of 131 and she's just 3lbs higher than the last two of those. All of which makes Jilly Cooper very much the one to beat here for me.

Both Tylos and Master Zoffany hold good chances of making the frame, as indeed do Farhh To Shy and Amber Island, but it would be Jilly Cooper that interests me most here. Only hills are open for this race at the moment and they go 9/2 about the filly, which is actually a good point longer than I expected. E/W punters might want to wait until SkyBet, Paddy Power and/or Unibet open up, as they're all paying on the first four home.

Racing Insights, Monday 06/02/23

/in /by

Monday’s free feature of the day is the pace tab for all races. This is available to all free registered users of Geegeez and gives huge insight into which runners might be most or least disadvantaged by their early positions in each race.

The free races of the day on Monday are...

  • 2.30 Fontwell
  • 3.00 Fontwell
  • 5.30 Wolverhampton

...but none of them really appeal to me, so I decided to have a quick look at the pace graphic for every race on Monday and the one with the biggest spread was this...

...from the 7.30 Wolverhampton, a 7-runner, Class 6, 3yo A/W handicap over a left-handed 1m1½f on standard tapeta. Here's the card...

Top-weight Mint Edition is the form horse here and comes seeking a hat-trick, whilst Gilded Moon is the only other with a recent win and none of Mint Edition's rivals even made the frame LTO.

Those two recent winners above are the only two not moving in class, as four (Sprezzatura, Grand Central, Fox Flame and bottom-weight Ski Jump) all drop from Class 5, whilst Quizlet raced at Class 4 LTO.

Ski Jump makes just a second handicap run and wears first-time cheekpieces whilst both Quizlet and Fox Flame make handicap debuts in a field rated 16lbs different from top to bottom. As for the field's last run, two (Mint Edition & Grand Central) have been quickly sent back out after 3 & 6 days rest respectively, three (Sprezzatura, Gilded Moon & Ski Jump) return from a short break of a fortnight or slightly longer, but both handicap debutants have been off for three months or more and might need a run.

None of these have won at either track nor trip. Mind you, only two of these have won a race before, so we'll probably need to concentrate on the second (places) of these two Instant Expert graphics...

...where it seems that those yet to win, don't even make the frame either!

So let's go back to that pace graphic we started with also add in the recent pace scores...

...and then compare that with past similar races here at Wolverhampton...

...where those racing furthest forward have the best record for win and place. Prominent runners make the frame as often as leaders but are only 73.5% as likely to win and the two I'd take from the pace chart would be Gilded Moon & Grand Central based on their last two outings, yet this pair are drawn apart in stalls 5 & 1 respectively, so who might have the best draw, if there is any advantage to be gained?

Our draw stats from those 120-odd races above say that a mid to high draw works best...

...with stalls 3 to 5 possibly the best place to be...

...which might be good news for Mint Edition, Ski Jump & Gilded Moon, whilst the pace draw heatmap...

...might look a little like this when we superimpose our field's draw and recent pace scores...

...where despite the difference in the draw, our two pace 'standouts' Grand Central & Gilded Moon look best placed on the combo.

Summary

Not a great race if truth be told, but I picked it purely to highlight the differing pace approaches taken in a race. I quickly assessed the field for form, race suitability, pace and draw and these were the ones that interested me most...

Form : Mint Edition & Gilded Moon
Instant Expert : Mint Edition & Gilded Moon
Pace : Gilded Moon & Grand Central
Draw : Mint Edition, Ski Jump & Gilded Moon
Pace/Draw : Grand Central & Gilded Moon

It's a fairly simplistic approach I've taken, of course, but of 11 names above Mint Edition is three of them and Gilded Moon is five, so they're the two I'm interested in now.

For me, Mint Edition should be winning this all day long and actually beat Gilded Moon by 6½ lengths on the latter's last outing 17 days ago. Gilded Moon is now 8lbs better, giving the filly a better chance of getting close, but a runner-up spot is surely the best she can hope for.

At the time I wrote this, only Hills had opened a book and they were putting Mint Edition up as an even money favourite and whilst I'm not into backing shorties, those of you who do might want to consider this one, as there could well still be some value in that price.

The beauty of a short-priced fav is that you can often get a decent E/W bet from it and the 10/1 about Gilded Moon might either be a little generous or a wasted stake. I think she's better than 10/1, whether she succeeds or not.

Racing Insights, Saturday 04/02/23

/in /by

Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...but they have generated no runners for me to look at, so it's a good job we have a list of fully functional 'free' racecards each day, which for Saturday cover...

  • 12.10 Lingfield
  • 1.55 Leopardstown
  • 2.20 Sandown
  • 3.16 Musselburgh
  • 5.30 Kempton

...from which, I'm going to look at the 3.16 Musselburgh, a 10-runner, Class 2, 4yo+ handicap hurdle on good to soft ground. They'll go right handed for just over 1m7½f and here's the card...

Nayati and Lebowski both won last time out and have both won three of their last five runs, as indeed has Parisencore. Inca Prince has a couple of wins in his recent formline, whilst only Band of Outlaws and Kihavah are winless in five (7 & 8 to be precise!)

The afore-mentioned Parisencore last raced in Class 1 handciap and drops down a level to run here, whilst both Lebowski & Grivetana step up a level with out of form Kihavah up two classes from an A/W run, but is only one class higher than his last hurdles effort and after having failed to complete his last two hurdles races (FP) he now wears cheekpieces for the first time.

Despite his current poor form, Kihavahis one of five to have won over course and distance, along with Nayati, Inca Prince, Collingham and Socialist Agenda. The other five runners have all also won over a similar trip elsewhere, but none have scored here at Musselburgh.

Lebowski has been off the track for nine weeks, Parisencore for ten weeks and Inca Prince for nineteen weeks, so they might be a little rusty, but their seven rivals have all raced in the last five weeks with top-weight Camprond out as recently as last Saturday in a poor show at Cheltenham. He's also one of four (along with Band of Outlaws, Grivetana & Socialist Agenda) yet to win a NH race on good to soft ground, whilst Band Of Outlaws & Collingham are the only ones to have tackled Class 2 racing without winning, according to Instant Expert...

...where the ones making most appeal to me are Nayati, Lebowski, Inca Prince and Parisencore. Kivavah has some good numbers but is in wretched form, whilst last year's winner of this race, Socialist Agenda has also struggled of late and was only 6th of 10 here over course and distance on New Year's Day, some 15 and 13 lengths behind the first two home, the re-opposing Donald McCain trained duo Nayati and Collingham. Nayati is 313161 from his last six (so he probably wins his next one after this!) from a hold up position and based on how the field have positioned themselves in recent outings, he might have company at the rear of the field from Kivavah and possibly his stablemate Collingham...

Nayati's win from the back here last time out is more of an exception to the rule, as those setting the pace normally come out on top, but stats like these...

...won't concern the McCain yard, now they know it's difficult but not impossible.

Summary

Nayati ticks all boxes for me here, bar the pace profiling. He's in great form (3 wins and 2 places from 6), he's a course and distance winner only up 3lbs and he has a whole line of green on Instant Expert. The horses that finished third and fifth behind him and Collingham here on New Year's Day have both re-appeared and won, franking the form of that race and I'm happy to overlook his apparent poor pace profile. He has all his recent form from a hold up position and it did him no harm last time around, so he's the one to beat in my eyes.

Nayati is currently as big as 6/1 with both Coral & Ladbrokes and I think that might be generous as I expected him to be maybe a couple of points shorter. Stablemate Collingham is 3lbs better off with Nayati and could also run a big race, although 15/2 would be borderline in my opinion about an E/W bet. Lebowski is sure to be involved and his 4/1 ticket is about what I expected.

The two I though might have an outside squeak of being E/W picks were Parisencore & Inca Prince. They both scored well on Instant Expert and are likely to be setting the pace, so it's not inconceivable that one (or both!) might hang on for a place. Parisencore was going really well until stepped up to Class 1 last time out, so a drop in class and weight might revitalise him and 9/1 isn't a bad price, but the market isn't keen on Inca Prince, who can be had as big as 20/1. He had a good winter last year but his summer/autumn form left a fair bit to be desired and it's a case of which version turns up here. He's had 19 weeks off and I've a feeling that he'll either bounce back of just flop here, no inbetweens : the 20/1 gamble is whether he bounces or not. If it helps, Sky go 4 places 😉

Racing Insights, Friday 03/02/03

/in /by

Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the report...

...have yielded four qualifiers for Friday...

...and I can also fall back upon our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 1.40 Catterick
  • 4.05 Chepstow
  • 4.30 Dundalk
  • 4.40 Chepstow
  • 6.15 Newcastle

...and having made the frame in all seven (six x handicap) career runs at Lingfield, we should see how Starshiba might fare back there for the 2.50 race, a 10-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left handed mile on standard polytrack...

Starshiba has 3 wins and 3 places from his last six outings, but both Brains (on a hat-trick here) and Unforgotten are the ones who won last time out. The latter, however, carries top weight up in class on handicap debut after an absence of 22 months and might well need a run.

Tropez Power, Enough Already, Gavi Gavi and George Morland have also all won relatively recently with just Farasi Lane, Million Thanks and bottom weight Dashing Dick on losing runs of 11, 5 and 10 races respectively with the latter having a 0 from 12 record on the A/W.

Aside from Unforgotten, none of these are moving class and none have been off track for more than four months with all bar Farasi Lane having raced inside the last five weeks, but he has been off for 109 days during which time he has undergone wind surgery.

Enough Already is showing as having a change of yard and he's now back with Lee Carter, less than eleven months after moving out of the yard. Since then he's had a win and two places from five runs for Henry Spiller and then finished 4th of 8 in both starts for Tony Carroll before finding himself back with Mr Carter.

He has won here over 1m2f and over a mile at Brighton & Yarmouth, but has no course and distance win. That, however, has been achieved by our H4C horse, Starshiba (who has finished 113 in three efforts over C&D), Brains, Gavi di Gavi and George Morland, whilst Tropez Power, Farasi Lane and Million Thanks have at least all won over a mile elsewhere. Only top and bottom weights, Unforgotten and Dashing Dick are winless at both course and distance and this will be reflected by Instant Expert...

Unforgotten is making just a fourth start, but has been a course and distance runner-up at a lower class twice already and may need the run after such a long absence. Tropez Power has ran well on the A/W so far, finishing 61313, but only the '6' came on polytrack when well beaten over 7f at Kempton. Farasi Lane is now some 15lbs higher than his last A/W win, but has actually won off 2lbs higher on turf.

Brains looks consistently solid, but his best form has come on the slower surface at Kempton. Starshiba's only blot is his Class 4 record, but he was a runner-up on both occasions, running on over 7f, so a mile might suit better. Enough Already, however, has struggled to win at Class 4 with a 1/8 record and his best form has been on turf. Gavi di Gavi hasn't this track or trip particularly well in the past, even if he did win over course and distance back in March 2021 and he's still 5lbs higher than that run.

George Morland's numbers are interesting, but his 3 from 3 record at Class 5 compared to 1 from 9 at this level suggests this will be too tough for him, whilst Dashing Dick is just 2 from 29 overall and although he has made the frame in half of his dozen A/W outings, he has yet to break his duck and doesn't look like changing that here.

Our Draw Analyser for similar past races here at Lingfield doesn't show a huge bias...

...but does suggest that the stalls 5 to 9 corridor might have a slight advantage, as they'd hit the turn a little wider and be able to 'cut' the corner and almost slingshot out of it, which is good news for featured runner, Starshiba, who will no doubt let the others get on with things and wait his time at the back, if his last few races are anything to go by...

Brains & possibly the returning Unforgotten are the likeliest front-runners, although going off quickly might not help the latter after such a long lay-off, whilst Starshiba might well have some company at the back of the field, which isn't generally the best placed to be here at Lingfield over a mile as the pace stats from those races above would suggest...

Starshiba is clearly the exception to the rule here, with his excellent record from a hold-up position and were it not for that record, you'd be right to doubt his ability to make up the ground.

Summary

Starshiba has made the frame in all seven visits to Lingfield and has finished 113 in three efforts over this course and distance, despite having a pace profile completely at odds with the way things normally go here. He is, however, well drawn and I can see him making the frame again here. Whether he wins or not is debatable, he was beaten by two heads into third on his last visit off 2lbs lower, so the odds are that a place is as good as it'll get, but at 15/2 early doors, could be a viable E/W proposition.

That market has Unforgotten installed as the 9/4 fav, but he really could be something or nothing. There are too many unknowns about him for my liking and if pushed, I'd prefer the likes of the 5/1 Brains to finish ahead of him.

Racing Insights, Thursday 02/02/23

/in /by

Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 2.30 Wincanton
  • 3.00 Wincanton
  • 4.35 Southwell
  • 5.30 Chelmsford

..from which I'm going to look at the 3.00 Wincanton, a 14-runner, Class 3, 5yo+ handicap chase over a right handed 3m1½f on good to soft ground. It's a stayers' chase, which I do like but 14 runners takes me out of my comfort zone, so I want to quickly cross some of them off and I'll do that by going straight to Instant Expert...

...where I immediately don't like the bottom two on the card. Putdecashonthedash is unplaced in nine runs on good to soft and seven Class 3 races plus is only 1 from 7 on this track, whilst Butterwick Brook has won just one of ten at this grade and one of eleven at 3m-3m2f. They're the two that I'd take out first, but as this kind of race isn't my metier, I'm probably looking initially for an E/W bet, so I'm actually going to rule any out who are in the red for place form at going, class, course or distance and that actually leaves me with just nine...

I left Foxboro in, because he's only had the one run at the trip, but on win stats, he now looks the most vulnerable...

...but now to the racecard itself...

...where sole LTO winner Certainly Red comes seeking a hat-trick and a fourth win in five. Potters Legend is the only one without a relatively recent win and at 13, he's the oldest in the race and hasn't won any of his last ten over almost two years. He has made the frame in three of his last five, though, but is up 3lbs here. Tallow for Coal, Nearly Perfect and Moroder were all pulled up last time out, but Moroder had won four straight prior to that run, Tallow For Coal had two wins and a runner-up finish from four, whilst Nearly Perfect was coming back off a 711-day absence and is now back on the same mark as his last win, a course and distance success here on Boxing Day 2020.

He's actually 2 from 2 over course and distance, whilst Certainly Red and Golden Sovereign have also won at this track/trip. None of the others have won here before, but all bar Foxboro have at least won at a similar trip and most of his running has been at 2m4f/2m4½f and I think he's the weakest here now, as we look at pace profiling.

With Foxboro discarded, I'm now looking at 8 runners for four places (5 with Skybet), so I'm still optimistic of finding an E/W bet. The eight remaining runners have raced as follows in their four outings...

...whilst past previous similar races here at this venue have panned out like this...

...which would suggest a pace score in the region of 2.00 to 3.00 for my E/W punt. So, from the eight above, I'm leaving Certainly Red (who I actually think will win, more on that shortly), Nearly Perfect and Champagne Court out of the running, giving me just five to consider.

Summary

When I refer back to Instant Expert (specifically chase form) for my final decision...

...the two that interest me most are Tallow For Coal and Moroder.

Tallow for Coal should enjoy the conditions here, her yard and jockey are in good form, she gets on well with her rider and these stats are of interest...

He didn't go well last time out, but was still pitching in when a mistake 4 out effectively ended his chances, yet prior to that run, he had won two of his previous four outings and has a month to get over his latest exertions.

As for Moroder, he also looks well suited by conditions but needs to bounce back after a poor effort last time out. He won four on the bounce in three months from December 2021, elevating his mark from 113 to a huge 135. He was then off track for nine months returning on New Year's Eve for a first run off that revised mark and it was probably a combination of the weight and the lay-off that saw him toil and get pulled up.

He's down three pounds here and whilst that doesn't get him into the winner's enclosure, I think he has a chance of making the frame. He has stamina to burn, loves the ground and is still relatively unexposed over fences, whilst his yard are 10 from 23 (43.5% SR) with Class 3/4 handicap chasers over 2m7.5f to 3m2.5f on Good/Good To Soft/Soft ground since the start of 2021.

Neither of these are winning but both have chances of a place and at odds of 10/1 and 33/1 respectively, they could be worth backing. As for the winner, that really should be the in-form Certainly Red, who seems to have it all going for him right now. He's a best priced 9/2 with Bet365 which is probably about right, despite it being a pretty big field.

Racing Insights, Wednesday 01/02/23

/in /by

Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 1.35 Exeter
  • 2.17 Dundalk
  • 4.02 Dundalk
  • 4.30 Exeter

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have generated just one runner on 1 year form and another two runners on 30-day form...

...and as the last of those three 'possibles', Oscars Moonshine, runs in the last of our 'free' races, it makes sense to have a quick look at the 4.30 Exeter, a 10-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a right-handed 2m7f on good to soft ground...

Sacre Coeur won last time out, Top of the Bill won two starts ago and Ocasrs Moonshine, Sporting Ace and Longshanks have all also won at least one in five. Sporting Ace looks the most consistent on results, whilst Longshanks has failed to complete his last three runs, Padleyourowncanoe hasn't finished either of his last two and Buckhorn George has been pulled up in three of his last five.

Top of the Bill, Astigar, Oscars Moonshine and Longshanks all drop a class, whilst top-weight Padleyourowncanoe drops two levels for his yard debut after leaving the Skeltons. Top of the Bill wears cheekpieces for the first time whilst Astigar has a second crack at a handicap after a 20 length defeat at Cheltenham.

Oscars Moonshine has won here over course and distance with Padleyourowncanoe (2m1f hurdle), Longshanks (2m3f chase) and Chloe's Court (2m6f hurdle) also previously successful at this track, whilst Top of the Bill has won over three miles at Chepstow.

None of the field are turned out quickly and none are coming off long breaks with all having run in the last 24-82 days. We know that we've four course winners, but Instant Expert also highlights four good to soft NH winners, seven Class 4 winners and five who have scored at 2m6f to 3m...

Padleyourowncanoe has a reasonable set of numbers there, but would prefer it softer and comes here on a run of 12 defeats stretching back almost two years, hence him now being 13lbs lower than his last win.

Top of the Bill has a win and a place from 6 over hurdles after placing in four bumpers. He did win over 3m at Chepstow on good to soft in December and although 5lbs higher than that win, he's a class lower.

Sacre Coeur finally got off the mark over hurdles in the UK last time out, but has won over hurdles and fences in France. He's only up 3lbs for that win, but I am slightly concerned at his failure to get round in four of twelve starts.

Astigar is lightly raced under today's conditions, but has a line of red on Instant Expert after failed to win any of five starts. His best run came when second here a year ago, but that was over a trip some 5.5f shorter than today and he struggled to see 2m5f out last time.

Oscars Moonshine has 3 wins and a place from ten over hurdles, but the three wins came in a 12-day purple patch in October 2020, after having failed to make the frame in his first five career starts. He was off a year after those wins and was a runner-up on his return in October '21. He then didn't race for 11 months and has been beaten by 15L and 17L in two races this season. He gets the trip but isn't in form.

Sporting Ace looks the one to beat for me so far and has run consistently well over the last 13 months, finishing 21 in two bumpers and then 11223 over hurdles. Trip is no issue with a 3m win under his belt and a mark of 115 doesn't look stiff. Down 3f today which will also help.

Longshanks is 1 from 5 over hurdles and 1 from 8 over fences and was pulled up & then unseated his rider in his last two chases, before reverting to hurdles at Wincanton in January. He was in the process of going well before falling two out and this inability to complete allied with a step up in trip gives me grounds for concern.

What About Time won on hurdles debut (2m4f) at Uttoxeter in Mid-November 2020 and then had almost a year off followed by two indifferent runs inside a month. Another 11 month break followed and he returned to finish just 8th of 12 at Ludlow last November, beaten by 22 lengths, but showed some positive signs when an 8.5 length runner-up on Boxing Day at Huntingdon. Has potential but lacks consistency.

Buckhorn George hasn't completed six of his last eight starts including a fall here in November 2021 and five times pulled up, He was second at Fontwell almost a year ago, but that run looks to be the exception to the norm in a run of results reading PFPP2P4P (the 4 was 4th of 5, beaten by 19 lengths)

Chloe's Court won here over 2m6f on soft ground just over two years ago, but has only won a total of 2 races from 25 attempts. Her record at Class 4 is abject and she comes here off the back of a 40+ lengths defeat at Hereford.

So far, the three I'm most interested in are (alphabetically) Sacre Coeur, Sporting Ace and Top of the Bill and if recent outings are anything to go by, Sacre Coeur and Top of the Bill will have to launch their bids for victory from the back of the field, whereas Sporting Ace is expected to be one of the front-runners...

...in a type of race that has served front-runners very well indeed...

Summary

Alphabetically Sacre Coeur, Sporting Ace and Top of the Bill are the three I'd want against the field here and with Sporting Ace being in the best progressive form of the three and also having the most suitable pace profile, he'd be the one to beat in my eyes. He's currently 9/2 with Bet365 with the other pair at 4/1 and 5/1 respectively in a tight market.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 31/01/23

/in /by

The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information] and here is Tuesday's Shortlist...

...where at least the first five are worth a second look.

As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...

  • 2.35 Newcastle
  • 2.42 Limerick
  • 3.45 Newcastle
  • 4.00 Ffos Las

...and as Shortlist Horse Fortified Bay runs in a 'free' race, I'm going to look at the 2.35 Newcastle, a 7-runner, Class 3, 5yo+ handicap chase over a left-hand 3m (after rail movements) on soft ground...

Fortified Bay won last time out, but all bar Castle Rushen (serial placer) and Wowsham (possibly weakest in the field) have won at least one of their last five and the two who are winless in five both won six races back. The Shortlist horse steps up in class after that win 16 days ago and he's the only course and distance winner in this field. Top-weight Morning Spirit drops in class and he's one of just two others (French Paradoxe being the other) to have already won at a similar trip, but we've no other track winners aside from Fortified Bay.

We've nothing new to report regarding surgeries, equipment, yard changes etc, but Wowsham hasn't raced for almost 20 weeks, but his rivals have all been out in the last 40 days and the class rising 11 yr old Fortified Bay is 3yrs older than most of the field.

MORNING SPIRIT has made the frame (9 times) in almost half of his 19 outings but has fared much better over hurdles, although he did win a Class 3, 3m1f, soft ground chase at Carlisle in November. He struggled off this mark LTO and probably needs to come back down in the weights to win again.

CASTLE RUSHEN never raced at all for 20 months prior to appearing at Wetherby in December and unseating his rider upon his chasing debut, but did finish 2nd of 9 here over 2m4½f next/last time out and that Wetherby race is the only time in his nine races that he hasn't finished in the first three home, winig three times and was placed at Listed & Grade 2 over hurdles.

WOWSHAM showed little in six Flat/AW runs prior to winning one of nine over hurdles. Hasn't raced sine mid-September when last home of five, beaten by 68 lengths at Navan and doesn't inspire confidence on his chase debut.

FRENCH PARADOXE has finished F11F in his last four over fences and was 8 lengths clear when falling at the last at Ffos Las just before Christmas. If he gets round today, he has an excellent chance of a third chase win, but will his jumping hold up?

FORTIFIED BAY was off track for 19 months from early May 2021 and was pulled up on his first two runs back (late Nov at Haydock and Boxing Day at Wetherby), but took advantage of a low mark of 117 to win by 10 lengths at Kelso 16 days ago. This is tougher up in class (+1), trip (+2f) and weight (+8lbs).

OLD PAINLESS is a former PTP who didn't do much in three efforts over hurdles, but won by 14 lengths on chase debut just before Christmas and was a runner-up next/last time out, despit going up in class. trip and weight. Up another 6lbs here, though and asked to go further than any of his other five starts under Rules.

HOUSTON TEXAS won three staying chases at Carlisle in a row last year, but struggled to 6th of 10 next time out and since then, has raced just once over hurdles, where he was only 5th of 8. Gets weight all round, but he looks second best of his yard's two runners here behind Castle Rushen

Instant Expert gives us the lowdown on the field's win & place records under similar conditions...

and past similar contests here at Newcastle have favoured those up with the pace...

...which based on the following...

...would appear to make life tougher for Castle Rushen and Houston Texas.

Summary

It looks like a three-horse race to me, between Castle Rushen, French Paradoxe and Old Painless, but none of them emerge from the analysis scot-free.

On form, French Paradoxe has fallen twice in his last four outings and he scored weakest of the three on Instant Expert, He does, however, have the advantage on pace, where Castle Rushen looks the one with ground to make up. Castle Rushen also doesn't win often enough, but is generally good for a place. As for Old Painless, he's now 13lbs higher than his last win and has never raced this far before and with French Paradoxe also considerably higher in the weights than his last win, this could well open the door for Castle Rushen to grab a first win over fences at the third attempt.

Racing Insights, Saturday 28/01/23

/in /by

Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated qualifiers solely on the 1 year form filter for both track and generally, as follows...

...for me to consider in addition to our selection of daily 'free' races...

  • 1.57 Uttoxeter
  • 2.05 Doncaster
  • 2.32 Uttoxeter
  • 3.15 Doncaster
  • 5.30 Kempton
  • 8.00 Kempton

And as it's quite rare for me to get a top level stayers' handicap on the 'free' list, I think I need to look at the second of our Town Moor offerings, the 3.15 Doncaster, a 12-runner, Class 1, 5yo+ handicap chase over a left-handed three miles on good ground...

Quite a few of these come here in decent form; Mister Coffey, Java Point, Shanty Alley and Coopers Cross were all runners-up in their last race, whilst top-weight GA Law was a winner and Tea For Free has won four on the bounce.

Conversely Windsor Avenue has been pulled up in four of five runs since winnig this race last year and at the age of 11 isn't getting any younger/better. He is, however, the only course and distance winner in the field, courtesy of his run 12 months ago and both Undersupervision & Shanty Alley have Doncaster victories to their names via 3m2f chase wins. Elsewhere only GA Law, Elvis Mail, Mister Coffey, Undersupervision and Coopers Cross have yet to win at this trip.

Four of the top six in the weights raced at this grade last time out, but the rest of the field are either up 1 class (Elvis Mail, Java Point, Cooper's Cross, Cap du Nord) or stepping up from Class 3 action (Mister Coffey, Tea for Free, Undersupervision, Shanty Alley).

GA Law has been off the track the longest at eleven weeks, but within a day the rest of the field have had at least four weeks rest, but have raced in the last eight. GA Law comes back 8lbs higher than his LTO win meaning he'll now carry some 25lbs more than bottom-rated Cap du Nord.

We know that some have these have won over track and trip separately or together in Windsor Avenue's case, but Instant Expert tells me that we have six good ground chase winners and four Class 1 chase winners and although he has never tackled track nor trip, GA Law seems the best suited by conditions...

...but at 8lbs higher than LTO and 3½ furlongs further than he's ever raced before, this won't be a walk in the park with four of his rivals all having won at 3m2f. Windsor Avenue won this race last year, but his record at this class/trip are poor, as is Shanty Alley at the trip, whilst Cap du Nord just looks generally weak.

The corresponding place stats are interesting, though...

Windsor Avenue still looks like being outclassed and Cap du Nord looks like he'll struggle, but Shanty Alley would actually appear to get this trip well, he just doesn't win often enough (he has 8 places and 4 incompletes from his last 12!), but if he gets round he could go well, especially if he's allowed to dictate the tempo of the contest, as according to our pace stats over the field's last four outings, he looks like a candidate to lead them around...

...with Cooper's Cross and Undersupervision the ones biding their time at the back, a tactic that might enable them to pick tiring runners off late on and maybe make the frame, but those 'up top' seems to fare best of all...

Summary

On form you've got to be looking at Mister Coffey, Java Point, Shanty Alley, Coopers Cross, GA Law and Tea For Free as the stronger half of the field. Of these six, GA Law caught the eye on Instant Expert with the others scoring well on place form.

Coopers Cross runs the risk of having too much to do late on from a hold-up position and that's a negative for me. GA Law is probably the one to beat here, but I don't think 5/2 or 3/1 offers great value at 8lbs higher and quite a step up in trip. A similar story for Tea For Free regarding the weight going up by 7lbs, but he'll go well again, I'd guess. That said 11/2 isn't enough to tempt me into an E/W bet.

One who might be worth considering as a long shot E/W punt is front-running Shanty Alley. Instant Expert shows he makes the frame regularly and has done so in 8 of his last 12 and 8 of the last 8 he has completed! He's currently as big as 20/1 and some firms will pay five places instead of four, so who knows?

No column on Sunday for Monday's racing, I'm away for the weekend (Mrs Chris' birthday), but I'll be back with a preview for Tuesday, so have a great weekend.

Racing Insights, Friday 27/01/23

/in /by

Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the report...

...have yielded a couple of regular placers on the A/W...

...and this free report is, of course, backed up by our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 2.05 Doncaster
  • 2.20 Lingfield
  • 3.15 Doncaster
  • 6.15 Wolverhampton

From which, I think I'll have a quick look at the two H4C contenders, starting with Man On A Mission, a 4yr old gelding who'll tackle the 3.55 Lingfield, a 9-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left handed five furlongs on standard polytrack...

MoaM comes here in great form, having won three on the bounce, but Pablo del Pueblo also won last time out. Our runner is noted as a fast finisher and unlike the other LTO winner, isn't stepping up in class here. He's had 16 days rest since his last run/win and now seeks to land a hat-trick of course and distance successes inside 25 days. Three others (Lilkian, Mick's Spirit & Hey Ho Let's Go) have also won here over 5f, whilst Pablo del Pueblo has won here twice over 6f and over today's trip at Kempton.

The two LTO winners look like taking differing approaches to this contest, as Pablo tends to get out quickly, whilst MoaM tends to time his run for the line a little later, according the field's last four outings...

...and the pair are drawn quite a way from each other with MoaM in stall 3 of 8 and Pablo out widest. Our Draw Analyser & Pace Analyser will hopefully give us an indication of where the optimum placing might be, starting with the draw...

...where there's not a massive bias, but if you had the choice, you'd want to be at the lower end of the draw (good news for MoaM), whilst the pace stats from all those races look like this...

...and these are pretty much what I'd expect over 5f. This means that MoaM will have his work cut out to win, but he's won his last two with similar tactics from stalls 2 of 7 and also from 7 of 8, which almost makes a mockery of our pace/draw heat map...

Pablo sits in high/led, which should give him a great chance of going well and whilst MoaM shouldn't be suited by a low/held-up positioning, he's a fast finisher and will relish conditions according to Instant Expert...

...where he's the clear standout. Pablo is unproven beyond Class 6 and is up in class here. Mick's Spirit looks weak at going/class/trip and Lilkian is the only other consistent looking runner based on win stats.

*

Our second runner is Algheed who goes in the 6.45 Wolverhampton, an 8-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left handed 7f on standard tapeta. The racecard...

...says that this 5yr old mare is also in prime form, having won three on the bounce including a course and distance win last time out. None of her rivals come here off the back of a win, but she does step up in class. Three others (Jilly Cooper, Visibility & Global Warning) have also won over course and distance. The yard and jockey are in good form and there's a stack of stats to support our runner here...

Algheed has finished 3111 in her last four by racing in an advanced position and the pace rankings from the field's last four outings suggests she'll be able to tuck in behind Free Solo and Visibility here to get that spot she runs so well from...

...whilst the likes of Rishies Baar and Starshiba are going to have pass everyone else if they're going to be successful. Mind you, the latter is 11313 from his last five, so a hold-up position doesn't necessarily rule him out. He'll make that run from stall 7 with only the likely leader Free Solo outside him. Our featured runner Algheed is just inside in stall 6, so there's a possibility that Starshiba might get drawn into the contest a little sooner than usual.

Of those three runners, the pace stats for past 8-runner 7f contests here suggest Algheed is best suited by the draw...

...whilst a prominent/leading position is the best one to assume in those races...

So, we have Algheed as a mid to high drawn prominent runner and our pace/draw heat map suggests that's a great place to be...

We don't really have any runner to fill the mid-draw mid-div role, so Algheed's placement could well be the best of the lot. There are however, two areas of potential concern as she's going to need another career best here up 5lbs from her last run, but most of these are higher than their last win and the other possible issue is her poor 0/4 record in this grade on the A/W, but her 2 wins and 6 places from 9 Wolverhampton runs might just see her home.

Summary

Two H4C runners in top form...

We started with Man on a Mission, who ticks pretty much every box if you can overlook the fact that he might start slowly, but that hasn't stopped him winning three on the bounce since Christmas. He's only up 3lbs for his latest win and he's the to beat here, I'd say. 5/2 is probably a fair reflection of his chances based on what we've shown above and the main danger might well come from the 11/2 shot Lilkian, who was a length behind the selection LTO and is now 4lbs better off.

Our second runner was Algheed and I like her too, but I'm not quite as bullish about her chances. there are a couple of areas of concern, but she does go really well here and her 2/1 ticket is probably about right. The main rivals in the market are the class-dropping Jilly Cooper, who's back at her best trip and Starshiba, who might well have won last time out had he got going a little sooner. With pace either side of him here, he might get very close to Algheed and I suspect these will be the first three home. Should one fail to fire, it might well open the door to the generally unspectacular, but consistent Visibility, a 4-time track winner, about whom 16/1 might be a tidy E/W punt with Bet365.

You're not getting rich off these two, but they have good chances and they could even land a nice near 10/1 double.

Racing Insights, Thursday 26/01/23

/in /by

Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 1.00 Southwell
  • 1.35 Southwell
  • 2.15 Gowran Park
  • 4.10 Wincanton

..from which I'm going to look at the 1.35 Southwell, a 7-runner, Class 3, 3yo A/W handicap over a left handed mile on standard tapeta...

...which is likely, to all intents and purposes, to develop into a 4-horse race between the top four on the card.

They're the 'form' horses here with Brave Emperor winning his last three, Gincident his last two and Dagmar Run/Mohatu following up wins with runner-up finishes. That said, Naomi's Charm won two starts ago and Look back Smiling has made the frame in each of his last two, making Shot of Love the weakest on form.

All seven are up at least one class from LTO with Gincident, Shot Of Love and Look Back Smiling up two levels, whilst Shot of Love joins the top three on the card in having just a second handicap run. Mohatu and Gincident have both won over a mile, but Naomi's Charm is a course and distance winner.

Brave Emperor completed his hat-trick almost 11 weeks now, but the rest of the field have been away for less than three weeks.

The above says 1 course winner (C&D), 3 distance winners and Instant Expert says (overall) four winners on standard going and one at Class 3...

...and despite the lack of data, Brave Emperor would be the standout here with Naomi's Charm let down by her 1/4 on standard going. Mind you, she's 0/3 on std-slow! As on previous occasions that I've covered Southwell for this piece, we have to have the new track caveat ie we don't have masses of pace/draw data for the new surface, but we'll do our best with what we do have, starting with the draw...

There's not a lot in it from such a small sample size, but if pushed I'd probably want to be in stalls 3-6 to give me the best chance of making the frame, which only really benefits Dagmar Run from our 'favoured four', whilst the pace stats from those races, as is often the case here, tend to favour those racing furthest forward...

and when we look at how this field has raced recently...

...I'd guess that Naomi's Charm and Brave Emperor will set the pace with Mohatu having to pass runners to get involved.

Summary

There's not much to talk about from the above, sadly, but I think the best horses get their own way in these small fields and that it really becomes a test of who is best on the day. I stick with the assertion that the top four on the card get home first and based on the evidence (or lack of!) above, then the 3/1 2nd fav Brave Emperor would be the one to beat.  Mohatu looks plenty short at 7/4 if he runs from a hold-up position, but should have enough to make the frame.

If either of two fail to fire, then I've a slight preference for Dagmar Run at 5's over Gincident at 7/2 with the latter up two classes. Could be a decent little race, this one.

Racing Insights, Wednesday 25/01/23

/in /by

Wednesday's free GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss.

Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way! And as ever, we ask you to please refer to our User Guide for further information.

In addition to the TS report, we also have the following fully functional free racecards...

  • 1.23 Fairyhouse
  • 2.35 Warwick
  • 2.45 Catterick
  • 3.00 Newcastle

My own personal settings for the TS report ...

...have actually generated just one UK qualifier as follows...

30 day form...

...and as the in-form Bolsover Bill runs in a 'free' race, it makes sense for me to take a quick look at the 2.45 Catterick, where I suspect he'll be well fancied to land this 10-runner, Class 5, 5yo+ handicap chase over the thick end of 2m3½f on soft ground...

As seen on the TS report graphic above, Bolsover Bill is in great form and seeks a 4-timer here, but Roccowithlove also won last time out , whilst both McGarry and Ribeye have wins in the recent form line. Dogem by Design looks the weakest on form.

Dogem was pulled up after losing touch LTO and has been beaten by 38, 43 and 74 lengths in his other three UK starts and at 3lbs out of the handicap, I'm happy to cross him off my list on his chasing debut.

The majority of this field all raced at this Class 5 level last time, but three of them drop down a grade; the top two in the weights, Crack du Ninian & Where's Hector along with last year's winner of this race, Relkadam.

That win last year of 8lbs higher than today makes Relkadam one of just two previous course and distance winners, along with featured runner, Bolsover Bill. The only other course or distance success from this bunch was Roccowithlove's win here over 3m1½f thirteen days ago for his first chase success.

I've already discounted Dogem By Design and at 63 days, he's been off the track the longest with the others all having raced in the last month; Relkadam and Roccowithlove have been sighted in the last fortnight.

Dogem by Design is on his second handicap and we've some new headgear on show as the top two in the weights, Crack du Ninian & Where's Hector are first-time wearers of a visor and a hood respectively.

As stated above, we've three course winners (2 at C&D) on show here and we've three winners at 2m2f to 2m4f. We also have four NH winners on soft ground and six with at least one previous Class 5 success, according to Instant Expert...

...which as you might have expected at Class 5 is awash with red! Bolsover Bill and Roccowithlove are the two obvious standouts and warning bells have started to ring about En Meme Temps (going/trip), Relkadam (going/trip, although he won this last year) and Ribeye (class), but it's highly possible that some of these might appear in a better light on place form...

Hmmm, yes, a little but Ribeye's time is up for today, I fear. A win and two places from sixteen career starts doesn't fill me with confidence about his chances on chase debut, so he's now a discard too and if we've now just got the top eight, I have some concerns about McGarry on soft ground with showers forecasted.

I know from looking at Bolsover Bill's recent wins that he likes to set the tempo of the race, but here's how his rivals have approached their last four outings too...

...suggesting that top weight Crack du Ninian might well keep him company up top, whilst Where's Hector and Dogem by Design look like they'll be held up, as might last year's winner, Relkadam who actually raced in mid-division for that race. Our Pace Analyser for this race...

...says that hold-up horses are likely to struggle to win/place and that horses on the sharp end of proceedings fare best of all.

Summary

It's hard to ignore the claims of featured horse Bolsover Bill, isn't it? He's in great form, his yard's in good form, he scores well on Instant Expert and on pace. He's also 2 from 2 under today's jockey and if we return briefly to Instant Expert and look just at chase form...

...he has to be the one, doesn't he? I know he's up 10lbs for a pair of convincing victories, but I think there might be well be a fair bit more to come for this 6 yr old. Nobody's getting rich off his 11/4 early price from Bet365, but I actually thought he might be a bit shorter.

That early market has McGarry at the same price, but a lack of chasing experience and his poor soft ground form make that price a bit skinny in my opinion and I think Roccowithlove might pose a threat. he's 11/2, which isn't long enough for an E/W bet in my opinion, whilst it wouldn't be the biggest surprise ever if Relkadam put another big run in and at 8/1 he could be an E/W possible, especially if your bookie pays four places.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 24/01/23

/in /by

Tuesday's free offering from the GOLD service is the The Shortlist feature, a simple – and usually brief – report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day. It covers win or place stats, and can be viewed for both today’s and tomorrow’s racing.

GREENis good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBERis quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
REDis not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation is – and has always been – that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form - and its odds - imply. As ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information!

Sadly due to postponement of so much racing, there are no qualifiers this Tuesday. We do still, however, have our daily list of 'free' racecards, but that has also been badly affected...

  • 12.40 Down Royal
  • 1.00 Exeter
  • 1.25 Leicester
  • 6.00 Southwell

...leaving us with a 20-runner maiden hurdle and an A/W maiden! Neither appeal to me to be honest and with just one mainland UK meeting set to go ahead, I'll swerve the maiden and take a look what should be the best on the card, the 7.00 Southwell. It's a competitive-looking, 7-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a straight 5f on standard tapeta...

My initial thoughts were that it's a 3-horse race between (in card order) Vespasian, Hiya Maite and Kim Wexler, but let's see what we can find.

Vespasian won five starts ago and has made the frame in his last two starts without winning, but Hiya Maite, Kim Wexler and Murbih all have a win and a runner-up finish from their last two with Kim Wexler our only LTO winner. All of that trio step up in class today with the latter pair (Kim Wexler and Murbih) up two classes and Hiya Maite up one.

The top three on the card are winless in 11, 10 and 7 races respectively, but Tolstoy drops in class here and has been noted as a fast finisher. All bar Strong Johnson have raced in the last four weeks, but he has been off for just over 15 weeks, during which he has moved yards and had a wind operation. Aside from the bottom three on the card who are all course and distance winners, he's the only other to have won at this 5f trip and none of the top four on the card have won at Southwell.

Strong Johnson is also the only one yet to win on the A/W, he's one of four previous Class 3 winners and one of two never to have raced here at Southwell before, according to Instant Expert...

...whilst those numbers filtered into A/W runs only look like this...

Murbih is the interesting one to emerge from Instant Expert and he's in decent form as noted at the top of the piece. He has made the frame in half of his 10 A/W starts, winning twice overall and finishing 30312 in five visits here. he receives weight all round and is currently making more appeal to me than Vespasian.

Southwell's tapeta is still fairly 'new' and as such we don't have as much pace/draw data as we do for other tracks, but what little we do have on the draw surprised me a little initially...

Stall by stall analysis doesn't reflect such a great high to low bias, though...

And that's reassuring to me, as I believe there shouldn't really be much in the draw over a straight 5f and that it's the way you approach the race that is key. Most (not all) 5f sprints favour those setting the pace and in that small sample above it has certainly been the case...

...and the resultant pace/draw heat map suggests that mid to highly-drawn leaders have the best chance...

*the high draw mid-div 100% record is from 1 horse

So, let's check the field's most recent outing to try to work out who might set the pace...

...and it certainly looks like they'll be hard at it from the start.

Kim Wexler & Strong Johnson are in stalls 3 & 4 with Murbih in 5 and Vespasian widest in 7. Vespasian probably edges it here, but other aspects of the toolkit analysis suggest Murbih would be a better bet of the two.

Summary

I started out with Vespasian, Hiya Maite and Kim Wexler uppermost in my mind, but I've arrived at a point here I think Murbih would be a better option than Vespasian. This means That I'm going to rule both out, because I don't think Murbih beats Kim Wexler. They were first and second home here over course and distance with Kim Wexler prevailing by a length and a half off equal weights. Murbih has been raised a pound for that run and KW is up 5lbs but now has an in-form 5lb claimer in the saddle, so I think the race's only mare still holds Murbih.

So that's Kim Wexler in my top 2 along with Hiya Maite, who is also in good form, only up one class as opposed to KW's two, he scored well on Instant Expert and is drawn high. The only possible issues are that he's 7lbs higher than his win two starts ago and that he might struggle for position with at least three or four getting first run on him.

Should be an interesting tussle, but I think 5/1 about Kim Wexler is a tidy price. Murbih is 15/2 with bet365 and they're paying three places, so he could be worth considering from an E/W perspective.

Racing Insights, Monday 23/01/23

/in /by

The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.

This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...

  • 2.00 Ffos Las
  • 3.30 Ffos Las
  • 5.10 Southwell
  • 6.30 Wolverhampton

...from which we'll look at the 3.30 Ffos Las, a 12-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a left handed 2m4f on soft (heavy in places) ground...

FORM : No Tackle won last time out, whilst Rocky Man and Equinus were both runners-up. Emmpressive Lady, Jimmy Jimmy and Sabbathcial all failed to complete. In addition to our sole LTO winner, four others (Emmpressive Lady, Rocky Man, New Found Fame and Sabbathical) have all won at least one of their most recent outings. Jimmy Jimmy has failed to finish four of his last five!

CLASS : Pileon, Whitehotchillifili & Gladiateur Allen are all down a class, whilst Equinus and No Tackle are up one grade with Sabbathical stepping up two classes.

WHAT'S NEW/DIFFERENT? : Both of those stepping up one class (Equinus and No Tackle) are on handicap debut, whilst New Found Fame is having a second attempt. Jimmy Jimmy makes both a yard and UK debut after recently leaving Gordon Elliott.

Emmpressive Lady is one of just two (Whitehotchillifili the other) mares in the race and she's running for the first time since a wind op, whilst LTO winner No Tackle wears a tongue tie for the first time.

COURSE/DISTANCE FORM : All bar Master Debonair, Equinus and Blacko hve won at a similar trip to this one, but top weight and class dropper Pileon is the only one to have won here, landing a 2m5f contest in January 2020.

LAST RUN : Emmpressive Lady's wind op took place during her 341 days off track, but all her rivals have been seen in the past two months with Gladiateur Allen turned back out quickest at 16 days.

Instant Expert highlights our sole course winner and the nine to have won at a similar trip noted above, but also shows that all bar one have won on soft/heavy ground, but that only three have won a Class 3 NH contest, yet four (Pileon, Emmpressive Lady, Master Debonair & Gladiateur Allen) have won at Class 2!

There's quite a bit of red on there, but much of it off small numbers of runs in fairness. Whitehotchillifili's 1 from 7 at the trip might need looking at, as might Gladiateur Allen's 1 from 8 and Sabbathical's 1 from 7, but the latter's 2 from 21 on soft/heavy is more of a concern, to be honest followed by his 0 from 8 at this track. Along with Jimmy Jimmy, who can't seem to get round I'd suggest that Sabbathical is amongst the weakest here and I'm discarding the pair.

The top four on the card have multiple wins on this going and Emmpressive Lady's 3 wins and 2 places from 8 is probably the pick of the pack. Overall, if we then switch our focus to place form, Rocky Man would seem best suited all round...

...and based just on the above place form, I'd going to cross Master Debonair & Blacko off for having no green and also Equinus for a lack of relevant experience : he's had three runs, all at 2m at lower grades and has yet to win. He's on handicap debut and might well need the benefit of a debut.

All of which leaves me with seven to consider and this is how they've approached their last four races...

That data suggests that Rocky Man and New Found Fame are likely to be waited with in a race, where the mare Whitehotchillifili is the one most likely to set the pace. Past similar races here haven't been kind to hold-up horses...

This actually poses a problem for me, as I think that Rocky Man might be the 'best' horse in the race, but closer inspection says he was a runner-up here over course and distance last time out , failing to make up enough ground from a hold-up position and losing by two lengths. A repeat of that run doesn't necessarily make him win this one and a 2lb rise in weight after not winning mighty well make him go down again.

Summary

I expected to be making a case for Rocky Man here and he might well go on to win, but I'm concerned about him trying to make up ground in the mud off a higher weight than last time out. That said, if there was a bit of juice in the price, he still might not have been a bad bet, but as a 15/8 or 2/1 fav, he's not for me. I think the two that fascinate me most are the mares, Emmpressive Lady and Whitehotchiilifili, particularly the latter.

The Lady has admittedly been off track for just over 11 months, but has had a wind op in that time. She was also pulled up LTO, but that was a 3m2½f affair on soft ground at Hereford, where she ran out of steam 3 out, just 3 days after winning over 2m7½f at a higher grade. This is much shorter and she'd won her previous two before that race and had actually won four and finished as a runner-up once in the seven races prior to that PU run LTO. She's currently 10/1 with bet365 paying four places and that mightn't be a bad shout.

As for Whitehot, she's a bit shorter at 15/2 but could also make the first four home, based on past place form. She has made the frame in 9 of 21, including 7 of 16 on soft/heavy. She has won a Listed race in the past and was beaten by less than 4 lengths in a Grade 2 race at Ascot a year ago.

Racing Insights, Saturday 21/01/23

/in /by

Another cold day expected on Saturday where the free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following runners for me to consider...

...in addition to our daily list of 'free' racecards, which were set to be...

  • 12.40 Ascot
  • 1.30 Haydock
  • 2.12 Lingfield
  • 3.00 Ascot
  • 4.20 Taunton
  • 6.30 Wolverhampton

Seeing as we've already lost Ascot and Taunton and there are doubts over Haydock and Southwell, I'm going to hang fire and wait until Saturday morning before adding my preview.

As those of us up in the North West expected, we lost Haydock too, leaving me with two 'free' races and two possibles from the TJC Report. The best (on paper, at least) of those four races is the one featuring the Haggas/Marquand combo above, the 2.47 Lingfield, an 8-runner, Class 2, 4yo+ fillies' A/W handicap over a left handed 1m2f on standard polytrack. It's the Winter Oaks and is worth over £50k and we do have a short-priced fav, but let's see how Morgan Fairy might get on against these...

I normally do my piece before the markets have fully formed, but today I can see the full picture and the betting seems to spilt the field into two halves...

...and my own figures also have the same spilt, where I'm expecting Al Agaila, Purple Ribbon, Morgan Fairy and Makinmedoit as the ones to focus on, but I'm going to see if a case can be made for a longer-priced E/W punt.

The Flying Ginger is the only one of the field without a win in her most recent form line and I'm going to dismiss her straight from the start because she's not in great form, her yard isn't firing right now, she's up two classes and runs from 6lbs out of the handicap. That's probably as many negatives as one needs!

As for the others, all have at least one win from five, Makinmedoit and Al Agaila have two and the latter is one of three (with Morgan Fairy & Aiming High) who won last time out. Fetured horse, Morgan Fairy is up one class here whilst At A Pinch and Aiming High are up two and three grades respectively. Top weight, Purple Ribbon, however was a runner-up, beaten by just a neck in a Listed race whern last seen.

The fav, Al Agaila, won on handicap debut last time out, landing the Winter Oaks Trial here over course and distance with the re-opposing Makinmedoit & Tequilamockingbird separated by a short head, some 2.5 lengths behind the winner. All three of those horses have now won over this course and distance.

At A Pinch makes a handicap debut here and she's the only one without a win at track or trip and hasn't raced on the Flat/AW for fifteen months, which will make this tough. After the three C&D winners, only Morgan Fairy has won at this venue, getting home by a neck over a mile on New Year's Eve.

All eight have run in the last eight weeks with just The Flying Ginger and Aiming High with a run in 2023. This pair are the only two yet to win on standard going, half of the field are previous Class 2 winners and we've already talked about course/distance winners. Instant Expert brings all this data together in a simple-to-view graphic...

As per the market and my own figures, Makinmedoit and Al Agaila feature strongly. Purple Ribbon has little experience and is without a Class 2 run, but did come very close to landing a Listed race last time out. Morgan Fairy tackles an A/W 1m2f for the first time here after running mainly over a mile, so may have to dig deep.

Of the lesser favoured half of the field, Tequilamockingbird is the one most likely to "win" that race on these figures. She has 3 wins and 2 places from 7 A/W starts, finishing 113 in her three visits to Lingfield all over course and distance.

She's drawn in stall 6, one place inside Makinmedoit, whilst the other three principals have bagged the inside three berths over a course and distance that would initially appear to favour those drawn lowest...

...but stall-by-stall data suggests that it's not quite that clear-cut...

...and I personally, wouldn't be too concerned which of the eight stalls my runner emerged from to be honest. Ideally, stalls 2 or 3 would be great, but even box 8 has won as often as #3. The Geegeez Pace/Draw heat map would tend to suggest tht this race could be won/lost by where in the field a horse positions itself..

..as aside from low drawn leaders, prominent runners are the most successful irrespective of draw and this is backed up by the pace stats for those 130+ races above...

These say to that a hold-up runner represents your worst chance of getting any money back from an E/W perspective and the win chance is almost as poor as those in mid-division. Mid-div horses do make the frame almost as often as prominent runners, but I think you're going to want a runner in the front half of the pack and based on this field's most recent runs...

...that's yet another tick for Al Agaila, but interestingly both Purple Ribbon and Makinmedoit are hold-up types. The latter, of course was second to the fav here LTO from that hold-up position, so it might not necessarily rule her out, especially as she's now 10lbs better off!

So, from my original four Al Agaila is the low drawn leader we looked for, Morgan Fairy is likely to be prominent, as also possible E/W punt Tequilamockingbird should be.

Summary

I started with four 'most likelys' and I think they're still exactly that, but it's very hard to get away from the 10/11 favourite Al Agaila. My pockets aren't deep enough to have a large enough bet to make it worthwhile, but if I did then she'd be the one here for me. That said, Makinmedoit is now 10lbs better than her runner-up run LTO which should get her much closer to the fav (on paper), although you suspect there's far more to come from the winner.

At 9/1, though, Makinmedoit wouldn't be a bad E/W prospect and at as big as 16's in places, nor would Teqiulamockingbird. I still think Purple Ribbon and Morgan fairy will run well, but they're not my idea of a winner in this race and aren't long enough for me to back E/W.

Whatever happens, it has the makings of a decent contest.