Posts

Stat of the Day, 31st August 2019

Friday's pick was...

5.15 Thirsk : My Ukulele @ 4/1 BOG 6th at 3/1 (Held up, pushed along 3f out, ridden over 1f out, not trouble leaders)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

2.10 Chester :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Oh This Is Us @ 7/2 BOG

...in an 11-runner, Class 2, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 7½f on Good ground worth £28,012 to the winner...

Why?...

Top weight drawn wide (stall 6) over 7.5f at Chester just a week after finishing down the field at Goodwood? Surely not, I hear some cry.

Yes, he was 9th of 12 a week ago, but was unlucky in not getting a run and was still only beaten by two lengths in a bit of a scrambled finish. And if we look at this very race last year, Oh This Is Us was drawn out in stall 9 conceding weight all round, a week after finishing 6th of 8, beaten by 2.5 lengths at Goodwood, yet managed to win quite cosily in the end off a mark 3lbs higher than today.

His career record stands at 11/45 (24.4% SR) for 34.14pts (+75.9% ROI), from which the following are relevant today...

  • 11 wins, 7 places from 39 over 7-8 furlongs
  • 8 wins, 5 places from 20 at odds shorter than 6/1
  • 8 wins, 3 places from 18 in handicaps
  • 7 wins, 6 places from 18 going left handed
  • 7 wins, 4 places from 18 at Class 2
  • 6 wins, 5 places from 23 off a mark of 101-110
  • 5 wins, 3 places from 15 on Good ground
  • 2 wins and a place from three here at Chester
  • 2 wins from within a week of his last run
  • and 1 from 1 over 7.5f (C&D in this race last year)

His trainer Richard Hannon is 7 from 22 (31.8% SR) for 12.91pts (+58.7% ROI) here on the Roodee over the past two seasons, including of note/relevance today...

  • 7/11 (63.6%) for 23.91pts (+217.4%) within a fortnight of their last run
  • 6/16 (37.5%) for 6.51pts (+40.7%) at odds shorter than 6/1
  • 6/14 (42.9%) for 8.51pts (+60.8%) with horses unplaced last time out
  • 5/17 (29.4%) for 13.33pts (+78.4%) on Good ground
  • 3/7 (42.9%) for 14.14pts (+201.9%) at Class 2
  • and 2 from 4 (50%) for 6.18pts (+157%) for prizes worth £20-30k

...from which those sent off shorter than 6/1 within a fortnight of being unplaced LTO are 6 from 8 (75% SR) for 14.51pts (+181.4% ROI), including Oh This Is Us' two wins and a place from three visits here...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Oh This Is Us @ 7/2 BOG as was widely available at 6.20pm on Friday.. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.10 Chester

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 6th July 2019

Friday's pick was...

6.00 Chelmsford : Tarseekh @ 4/1 BOG 2nd at 5/1 (Led and set strong pace, ridden over 1f out, headed and no extra well inside final furlong)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

4.10 Sandown :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Magical Wish @ 3/1 BOG

...in a 10-runner, Class 3, Flat Handicap for 3yo over 7f on Good To Firm worth £9338 to the winner...

Why?...

This 3 yr old colt was a very decent third in a big-field (22 ran!) Class 2 handicap at York last time out, three weeks ago. He came from last t0 just 2 lengths off the winner in the closing stages of that 6f contest and was flying at the finish.

Positives today in comparison to that run, include a drop in class, a step back up to 7f (trip he won at 3 starts ago) and the booking of Ryan Moore in the saddle, who has a good record here at Sandown.

His trainer Richard Hannon also does well here, saddling up of 28 winners from 183 (15.3% SR) for 35.5pts (+20% ROI) profit over the last four seasons and these contain of relevance today...

  • 14/89 (15.7%) for 28.4pts (+31.9%) from 3 yr olds
  • 9/51 (17.7%) for 17.7pts (+34.7%) over this 7f course and distance
  • 8/32 (25%) for 35.5pts (+111%) from those beaten by a neck to 2 lengths LTO
  • 8/52 (15.4%) for 21.9pts (+42.1%) in July
  • 7/24 (29.2%) for 12.5pts (+52.2%) ridden by Ryan Moore
  • 6/34 (17.6%) for 10.55pts (+31%) placed 2nd or 3rd LTO
  • and 5/27 (18.5%) for 13.2pts (+48.7%) at Class 3

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Magical Wish @ 3/1 BOG as offered by more than half a dozen firms at 7.25pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.10 Sandown

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 1st July 2019

Saturday's pick was...

4.20 Chester : Super Kid @ 3/1 BOG non-runner 

Monday's pick runs in the...

7.45 Windsor :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Your first 30 days for just £1

Embour @ 10/3 BOG

...in an 8-runner, Class 2, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 6f on Good To Firm ground worth £12450 to the winner...

Why?...

This 4 yr old gelding arrives here in decent enough form having 2 wins and 2 places from his last 5 starts taking his overall career record to a very respectable 7 places from 13 (53.8% SR), including 5 wins (38.5%), including of relevance today...

  • 4 wins, 2 places from 10 on a straight track
  • 4 wins, 2 places from 9 at odds shorter than 6/1
  • 4 wins, 1 place from 7 in fields of 6-9 runners
  • 4 wins, 1 place from 8 over 6 furlongs
  • 3 wins from 3 under jockey Sean Levey
  • 3 wins from 3 at odds shorter than 9/2
  • 3 wins from 5 in Class 2 races worth less than £20,000
  • 3 wins, 1 place from 7 over a straight 6f
  • and 2 wins, 1 place from 5 on Good to Firm ground

Jockey Sean Levey now attempts to defend his 100% record on this horse and also aims to add to his impressive 70 winners from 480 (14.6% SR) rides for Richard Hannon on the Flat over the last three (inc. this one) seasons which have generated level stakes profits of 155.7pts at betfair SP at an ROI of 32.5% and these include 16 from 97 (16.5%) over 6f and 10/57 (17.5%) here at Windsor...

...whilst trainer Richard Hannon himself has been no slouch around this venue, accruing 23 winners from 156 (14.7% SR) in handicaps on this track over the past five (inc. this one, of course) seasons. Followers of such runners have been able to avail themselves of 56.5pts profit at betfair SP, a figure equivalent to some 36.2% of all stakes invested.

From this 23/156 record of interest/relevance today, we have...

  • 22/138 (15.9%) for 61pts (+44.2%) over 6f to 11.5f
  • 19/120 (15.8%) for 64.4pts (+53.7%) from male runners
  • 15/60 (25%) for 22.8pts (+37.9%) at odds of 9/4 to 6/1
  • 11/57 (19.3%) for 45.5pts (+79.9%) on Good to Firm
  • 11/57 (19.3%) for 16.5pts (+28.9%) with a top 3 finish LTO
  • 9/41 (22%) for 43.1pts (+105%) with Sean Levey in the saddle
  • and 7/41 (17.1%) for 21.6pts (+52.7%) from those turned back out after less than a fortnight's rest

...whilst males at 9/4 to 6/1 over 6 to 8.5 furlongs are 9/29 (31% SR) for 23.1pts (+79.7% ROI) profit, including 7/18 (38.9%) with a top 3 finish LTO, 4/9 (44.4%) under Sean Levey and 3/10 (30%) after less than a fortnight's rest...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Embour @ 10/3 BOG as offered by most firms at 5.15pm on Sunday, although slightly better was available at Bet365. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 7.45 Windsor

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 1st July 2019

Saturday's pick was...

4.20 Chester : Super Kid @ 3/1 BOG non-runner 

Monday's pick runs in the...

7.45 Windsor :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Embour @ 10/3 BOG

...in an 8-runner, Class 2, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 6f on Good To Firm ground worth £12450 to the winner...

Why?...

This 4 yr old gelding arrives here in decent enough form having 2 wins and 2 places from his last 5 starts taking his overall career record to a very respectable 7 places from 13 (53.8% SR), including 5 wins (38.5%), including of relevance today...

  • 4 wins, 2 places from 10 on a straight track
  • 4 wins, 2 places from 9 at odds shorter than 6/1
  • 4 wins, 1 place from 7 in fields of 6-9 runners
  • 4 wins, 1 place from 8 over 6 furlongs
  • 3 wins from 3 under jockey Sean Levey
  • 3 wins from 3 at odds shorter than 9/2
  • 3 wins from 5 in Class 2 races worth less than £20,000
  • 3 wins, 1 place from 7 over a straight 6f
  • and 2 wins, 1 place from 5 on Good to Firm ground

Jockey Sean Levey now attempts to defend his 100% record on this horse and also aims to add to his impressive 70 winners from 480 (14.6% SR) rides for Richard Hannon on the Flat over the last three (inc. this one) seasons which have generated level stakes profits of 155.7pts at betfair SP at an ROI of 32.5% and these include 16 from 97 (16.5%) over 6f and 10/57 (17.5%) here at Windsor...

...whilst trainer Richard Hannon himself has been no slouch around this venue, accruing 23 winners from 156 (14.7% SR) in handicaps on this track over the past five (inc. this one, of course) seasons. Followers of such runners have been able to avail themselves of 56.5pts profit at betfair SP, a figure equivalent to some 36.2% of all stakes invested.

From this 23/156 record of interest/relevance today, we have...

  • 22/138 (15.9%) for 61pts (+44.2%) over 6f to 11.5f
  • 19/120 (15.8%) for 64.4pts (+53.7%) from male runners
  • 15/60 (25%) for 22.8pts (+37.9%) at odds of 9/4 to 6/1
  • 11/57 (19.3%) for 45.5pts (+79.9%) on Good to Firm
  • 11/57 (19.3%) for 16.5pts (+28.9%) with a top 3 finish LTO
  • 9/41 (22%) for 43.1pts (+105%) with Sean Levey in the saddle
  • and 7/41 (17.1%) for 21.6pts (+52.7%) from those turned back out after less than a fortnight's rest

...whilst males at 9/4 to 6/1 over 6 to 8.5 furlongs are 9/29 (31% SR) for 23.1pts (+79.7% ROI) profit, including 7/18 (38.9%) with a top 3 finish LTO, 4/9 (44.4%) under Sean Levey and 3/10 (30%) after less than a fortnight's rest...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Embour @ 10/3 BOG as offered by most firms at 5.15pm on Sunday, although slightly better was available at Bet365. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 7.45 Windsor

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 21st July 2018

Friday's Pick was...

3.05 Newbury : Mistress Quickly @ 7/1 BOG 2nd at 6/1 (Held up in rear, headway on outside chasing leaders and hung left 3f out, kept on inside final furlong, went 2nd final 150 yards, no chance with winner, beaten by 2L)

Saturday's pick goes in the...

5.10 Newmarket :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Rogue 10/3 BOG

In a 7-runner, Class 3, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 7f on Good To Firm ground worth £9704 to the winner...

Why?

This 3 yr old gelding has 3 wins and a place to his name from his last seven starts, including winning over today's 7f trip under today's jockey, the 7lb claimer Thore Hansen, on good to firm ground at Sandown LTO a fortnight ago.

He won by a good 2 lengths after making all, a tactic I feel would prove beneficial again today, based on the pace/draw make-up of this race.

Of his brief career so far, this horse...

  • has 2 wins, 1 place from 6 over the 7f trip
  • 2 wins, 1 place from 4 on good to firm
  • 2 wins from 3 at Class 3
  • 2 wins from 2 within 15 days of his last run
  • 1 from 1 under today's jockey

As a 3yr old in a 3yo+ handicap, he gets a very healthy 8lb weight for age allowance which when combined with his jockey's 7lb claim means he gets weight ranging from 4lbs to 20lbs from each of his rivals today.

He's trained by Richard Hannon, whose record with LTO winners running as the same class & distance within 25 days of that win = 20/61 (32.8% SR) for 29.7pts (+48.7% ROI) from which, those racing on the Flat (turf) have won 17 of 49 (34.7%) for 33.7pts (+68.8%)

And it is these 49 on the Flat which will provide some pointers for us today, as they are...

  • 17/42 (40.5%) for 40.7pts (+96.9%) over 5 to 10 furlongs
  • 14/33 (42.4%) for 43.5pts (+131.7%) at odds of 2/1 to 15/2
  • 11/33 (33.3%) for 24.4pts (+74%) off a mark of 65-90
  • 12/29 (41.4%) for 36pts (+124.1%) 11 to 20 days after their last run
  • 10/27 (37%) for 25.4pts (+94.1%) as 3 yr olds
  • 11/24 (45.8%) for 31.6pts (+131.5%) on good to form ground
  • and 9/16 (56.25%) for 28.7pts (+179.3%) in June/July

...and from the above...2/3 yr olds @ 2/1 to 15/2 off OR of 65-90 over 5f to 10f on good to firm, 6 to 20 days since last run = 8/12 (66.6% SR) for 34.77pts at an ROI of some 289.8%! It's an admittedly small sample size...

...but it does point towards...a 1pt win bet on Rogue 10/3 BOGa price available from Betfair, BetVictor, Unibet & SkyBet at 6.35pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 5.10 Newmarket

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 6th July 2018

Thursday's Pick was...

7.00 Epsom : Baron Bolt @ 11/4 BOG WON at 11/4 (Chased leaders, not clear run 2f out, switched outside and headway under pressure over 1f out, soon ridden, ran on inside final furlong, led near finish to win by half a length)

Friday's pick goes in the...

3.30 Sandown :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Euginio @ 11/4 BOG

In a 6-runner (was originally 8), Listed Race for 3yo+ over 1m2f on Good To Firm ground worth £22684 to the winner...

Why?

Handily drawn in stall 2, this 4yr old colt has progressed nicely this season and come here off the back of an excellent run in the Wolferton at Royal Ascot lees than three weeks ago. Sent off as a virtual no-hoper at 33/1, he not only defied those odds, but also a 14 of 16 draw to get to a point where only a Dettori-driven Monarchs Glen (rated 7lbs higher but only conceding 5) beat him and there was only a length in it at the post.

Not much form to glean from that race yet, in fairness, although the horse coming home last of the 16 (11 lengths behind our boy), Yucatan, did reappear at The Curragh last Sunday to win a Group 3 contest over today's 1m2f trip on similarly Good to Firm ground.

As for Euginio's own form, he has won here before over course and distance on good to firm ground, he has 2 wins and a place from 4 races in fields of 7 or fewer runners and has 2 wins, 1 place from 3 June/July outings, so he probably has optimum conditions here.

No disrespect intended to regular rider Andrea Atzeni, but I'm happy to see Silvestre de Sousa booked for this one today, as SdS is in excellent touch right now. Of his 16 rides so far this month, 13 top-3 finishes (81.25%) have included no less than 7 winners (43.75%), including managing to get a 16/1 outsider into the winners' enclosure after the last at Newbury last night!

Silvestre rides this track well, winning 16 of his 65 rides here since the start of the 2016 season and those punters taking advantage of that 24.6% strike rate will have benefited from profits of 17.4pts or 26.8% of total stakes invested. Amongst those 65 rides...

  • he is 15/49 (30.6%) for 24pts (+49%) over trips of 7 to 14 furlongs
  • he is 14/33 (42.4%) for 27.6pts (+83.6%) on horses sent off at odds of 5/4 to 11/2
  • and when riding horses at those odds over 7-14 furlongs, he has won 14 of 25 (56%) for profits of 35.6pts (+142.4%)

He also gets on well with horses trained by Richard Hannon, winning 13 times from 37 (35.1% SR) since the start of 2106, with the 32.5pts profit equating to an 87.8% return on stakes. Closer inspection of the 13 winners (as I'm not too interested in the 24 losers!), shows that...

  • 12 of them came from 22 (54.6%) horses turned back out within 3 weeks of their last run, generating profits of 46.3pts (+210.6%)
  • 12 came from 23 (52.2%) at odds of 8/1 and shorter for 29.8pts (+129.6%) profit
  • 11 came from 27 (40.7%) in fields of 6-11 runners at a return of 39pts (+144.6%)
  • 11 came from 31 (35.5%) Flat runners giving 26pts (+84%)
  • 9 came from the 14 (64.3%) who finished in the first three home last time out. Backing these gave 33.5pts (+239.4%) profit
  • 7 came from 22 (31.8%) non-handicap contests for 20.5pts (+93.3%)
  • and 4 came from just 8 (50%) runs this year, producing 11.07pts at an ROI of 138.3%

Before I wrap this one up, it's worth noting that...de Sousa + Hannon + 8/1 and shorter + 11 or fewer runners + no more than three weeks rest = 11/13 (84.6% SR) for 38.7pts (+297.4% ROI) profit!

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Euginio @ 11/4 BOGwhich was widely available at 5.10pm on Thursday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.30 Sandown

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 12th June 2018

Monday's Pick was...

4.00 Brighton : Roundabout Magic @ 11/4 BOG 4th at 10/3 (Never really got going/involved, raced wide and was beaten by 2.5 lengths)

We continue with Tuesday's...

7.50 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Fanfair @ 4/1 BOG

An 8-runner, Class 5 fillies handicap for 4yo+over 1m2f on Good to Firm ground worth £3752 to the winner

Why?

Well, we've got a 4yr old filly here who I like for this contest for a number of reasons, so instead of the headline stat that I drill deeply into, I'm going to give you some snippets that would suggest a decent run is on the cards. (I could drill right down into the snippets, but I fear there'd be too much info and you'd get bored!)

So, we'll start with the filly herself, back amongst her own sex after a good effort to finish third in mixed company six days ago. That was under similar conditions at Wetherby when beaten by less than 2 lengths despite a slow start coming off a 239 day absence. All her best work was done at the end of the contest, so it's not unreasonable to suggest she'll come on for the run.

Since the start of last season, she has made the frame in 6 of 8 races, winning twice with 2 wins and 2 places from 6 at this 1m2f trip and her only visit here in the past was a course and distance success.

Ryan Rossa takes the ride today and claims 5lbs, he's in good touch right now, winning 5 of 27 (18.5% SR) and 3 of 14 (21.4%) over the past 14 and 7 days respectively and whilst they're not earth shatteringh figures, they're pretty good for a jockey still claiming 5lbs.

In addition to recent form, Ryan is 12/83 (14.5% SR) for 46.4pts (+55.9% ROI) when riding for Richard Hannon, about whom I've several snippets in further support of my pick, but I'll just give you three for now, namely...

...last 2 years + Richard Hannon + Flat runners + less than 3 weeks rest = 138/826 (16.7% SR) for 225.1pts (+27.3% ROI), including...

  • on good to firm : 46/289 (15.9%) for 147pts (+50.9%)
  • females are 45/266 (16.9%) for 196.2pts (+73.8%)
  • over a 1m2f trip : 22/90 (24.4%) for 82.9pts (+92.1%)
  • females on good to firm are 12/85 (14.1%) for 132.1pts (+155.4%)
  • and females at 1m2f on good to firm are 2/8 925%) for 6.25pts (+78.1%)

...Richard Hannon + Class 5 Flat Handicaps + May to August = 59/346 (17.1% SR) for 120.3pts (+34.8% ROI) with those racing on good to firm ground winning 23 of 136 (16.9%) for 91.5pts (+67.3%)

...Richard Hannon + Lingfield Flat Handicaps = 10/58 (17.2% SR) for 8.88pts (+15.3% ROI), from which...

  • those sent off at odds of 2/1 to 8/1 are 9/39 (23.1%) for 25.8pts (+66.1%)
  • 4 yr olds are 3/8 (37.5%) for 5.02pts (+62.8%)
  • and over this 1m2f course and distance : 3/7 (42.9%) for 15.94pts (+227.7%)

...and that's more than enough to justify...a 1pt win bet on Fanfair @ 4/1 BOG which was available from 10Bet, SportPesa & SkyBet at 5.25pm on Monday with some 9/2 BOG on offer from Bet365. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 7.50 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 12th September 2017

Monday's Result :

2.35 Perth : Johnny Go @ 4/1 BOG RACE VOID, stakes returned : Fell and sadly fatally injured at first fence, causing race to be abandoned...

A sad day at Perth on Monday for all concerned and the thoughts of everyone here at Geegeez are with connections of Johnny Go.

Tuesday's pick goes in the...

4.25 Leicester :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

War Glory @ 7/2 BOG

Why?

This 4yr old gelding has certainly been banging on the door of late, finishing 322 in his last three outings and was only beaten late on by half a length last time out when outpaced to the line at Chester 10 days ago.

That race was at a higher grade and over half a furlong than today, so it is hoped/expected that the drop in both grade and trip will do the trick today, as he certainly wouldn't be winning out of turn!

Another bonus comes in the shape of the booking of the ever-reliable Ryan Moore to take the ride, as he continues to churn out those winners at a rate of 1 in 4, whilst here at Leicester, his strike rate is even better at 26.4% via 47 winners from 148 over the last nine seasons.

Trainer Richard Hannon is 22/154 (14.3% SR) overall here at this track and whilst that's a reasonable strike rate, it's not quite enough to show a profit from blindly backing all his runners, but if we focus on those priced at Evens to 8/1, we have 21 winners from 100 (21% SR) for profits of 9.86pts (+9.86% ROI).

Those 100 runners include...

  • those carrying 9st 3lbs or more : 12/52 (23.1%) for 14.4pts (+27.7%)
  • those last seen 6-20 days ago : 14/46 (30.4%) for 30.5pts (+66.4%)
  • those racing over 7 furlongs are 8/36 (22.2%) for 8.8pts (+24.3%)
  • and those dropping down a grade are 8/28 (28.6%) for 20.2pts (+72%)

And finally...2012-17 / Flat / 7f / 3-4 yr olds / top 3 finishes in each of last three races / 2nd or 3rd LTO in last 25 days = 61/289 (21.1% SR) for 159.4pts (+55.2% ROI), with those racing at Class 3 winning 9 of 28 (32.1%) for 56.8pts (+202.8%)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on War Glory @ 7/2 BOG, which was offered by Bet365, Paddy Power, SkyBet, SunBets & 10Bet at 5.45pm on Monday, so, as ever, the choice is yours! For what it's worth, I'm on with SkyBet, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.25 Leicester

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 31st August 2017

Wednesday's Result :

4.40 Lingfield : Transmitting @ 9/2 BOG - WON at 7/4 : Chased leaders, driven to challenge over 2f out, every chance over 1f out, led inside final furlong, kept on well to win by a length and three quarters...

Thursday's pick goes in the...

3.40 Bath :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Paint @ 3/1 BOG

Why?

A 2yr old filly on handicap/nursery debut for the in-form Richard Hannon yard, who like sending runners here to bath, as they've got a 17.5% strike rate here over the last four seasons (25/143), whilst this year alone they are 9/33 (27.3% SR) for 11.2pts (+33.9% ROI) profit at this venue.

Also, the Hannon 2 yr olds on handicap debut are 23/153 (15% SR) for 28pts (+18.3% ROI) over the last three seasons, including of note today...

  • those with 3 previous runs under their belts : 15/104 (14.4%) for 36.2pts (+34.8%)
  • those without a previous win are 13/97 (13.4%) for 26.2pts (+27%)
  • those finishing 3rd to 6th LTO are 13/63 (20.6%) for 48.2pts (+76.5%)
  • at Class 5 : 8/52 (15.4%) for 31.1pts (+59.7%)
  • and those up in trip by a furlong are 8/49 (16.3%) for 19.5pts (+39.7%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Paint @ 3/1 BOG, which was available from Bet365, Ladbrokes &, Sunbets at 6.05pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.40 Bath

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 30th June 2017

Thursday's Result :

4.00 Nottingham : Excel Again @ 9/2 BOG non-runner Reason: Going.

Friday's pick goes in the...

6.00 Newcastle...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Inaam @ 9/2 BOG

Why?

Some of you might wonder why I've chosen this horse when he's up against the one I selected for Thursday, who didn't run electing to come here instead. The main reason is that I feel Inaam is better suited by today's conditions, having already won 5 of 19 on the All-Weather, including...

  • 5/15 in fields of 8-11 runners
  • 4/11 on Tapeta
  • 3/7 here at Newcastle
  • 3/7 on a straight track
  • 2/5 this year
  • 2/3 under jockey Paul Hanagan
  • 1 win and 1 place from 2 runs at 1 mile
  • 1/1 over course and distance.

On top of his own obvious suitability, the Hanagan / Fahey / Newcastle Tapeta angle is 6/26 (23.1% SR) for 8.17pts (+31.4% ROI) already, from which...

  • handicappers are 5/20 (25%) for 8.39pts (+42%)
  • males are 4/16 (25%) for 12pts (+75%)
  • at Class 4 : 2/11 (18.2%) for 5.82pts (+52.9%)
  • 4 yr olds are 3/10 (30%) for 9.42pts (+94.2%)
  • at odds of 9/2 and shorter : 5/9 (55.6%) for 12.77pts (+141.9%)
  • and over this 1m course and distance : 3/6 (50%) for 14.4pts (+240.1%)

It's quite possible I'll end the month with egg on my face, but I think that Inaam stands a better chance of winning and at the prices available offers more value than Excel Again...

...and that's why it's...a 1pt win bet on Inaam9/2 BOG which was offered by Coral, Ladbrokes & 3 smaller firms at 5.55pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 6.00 Newcastle...

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 21st October 2016

Thursday's Result :

2.45 Carlisle : Little Glenshee @ 4/1 BOG 6th at 8/1 (Tracked leader, led 4th, headed 8th, weakened before 4 out, tailed off)

Friday's pick goes in the...

6.50 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Whip Nae Nae at 4/1 BOG

Why?

Placed in four of his five starts to date, his best effort and the best of the entire field coming last time out just over 4 weeks when beaten by just three quarters of a length in a tough Class 2 handicap, behind a horse rated 91, who was then within 5 lengths off the winner in a Listed contest recently.

Whip Nae Nae, now drops back in to maiden company and comes down three grades to be here, hoping to improve his trainer's already decent record here at Wolverhampton.

In fact, Richard Hannon's runners priced at 10/11 to 11/1 (covering my bases here) here at Wolverhampton are 18 from 76 (23.7% SR) for 19.72pts (+26% ROI), and from these 76 runners, I've got no less than 10 angles for you to consider...

  • on Tapeta = 17/73 (23.3) for 19.6pts (+26.8%)
  • less than 45 days since last run = 15/55 (+27.3%)
  • males = 15/54 (27.8%) for 33.1pts (+61.3%)
  • in non-hcps = 13/9 (33.3%) for 29.5pts (+75.7%)
  • 2 yr olds = 7/39 (18%) for 21.7pts (+55.7%)
  • Class 5 = 9/35 (25.7%) for 13.6pts (38.8%)
  • in maidens = 10/31 (32.3%) for 21.9pts (+70.7%)
  • 2nd or 3rd LTO = 9/22 (40.9%) for 25pts (+113.7%)
  • beaten by 0.2 to 3 lengths LTO = 10/21 (47.6%) for 34.1pts (+162.3%)
  • ridden by Kieran O'Neill = 5/20 (25%) for 1.37pts (+6.85%)

...leaving me with...a 1pt win bet on Whip Nae Nae at 4/1 BOG, a price widely available at 1.15am on Friday morning and to see your preferred bookies' odds, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 6.50 Wolverhampton.

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

Stat of the Day, 21st September 2016

Tuesday's Result :

4.10 Beverley : Ralphy Boy @ 4/1 BOG 2nd at 9/2 (Led, driven over 2f out, soon ridden, headed 1f out, kept on, no impression with winner inside final furlong and beaten by just over 2 lengths.)

Wednesday's pick goes in the...

2.35 Goodwood :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Admiralty Arch at 11/2 BOG

Why?

Tom Marquand rides this 2 yr old colt for Richard Hannon today and the pair are 4 from 11 (36.4% SR) for 33.5pts (+304.5% ROI) together at this venue in 2016, with 7f runners winning three of four on their way to profits of some 32.65pts (+876.2%).

On top of that, the pair are 18/109 (16.5% SR) for 11.86pts (+10.9% ROI) in all non-handicap contests to date, of which...

  • those racing over 5f to 1m are 17/95 (17.9%) for 32.8pts (+34.5%)
  • males are 14/62 (22.6%) for 21.8pts (+35.2%)
  • on good/good to soft ground : 7/42 (16.7%) for 27.93pts (+66.5%)

Admiralty Arch is by Archipenko, whose offspring are 103/667 (15.4% SR) for 378.7pts (+56.8% ROI) profit so far, including...

  • 39/200 (19.5%) for 284.2pts (+142.1%) from 2 yr olds
  • 34/180 (18.9%) for 269.5pts (+149.7%) over 6/7f
  • 5/35 (14.3%) for 46.8pts (+133.6%) at Class 2

AND... 2 yr olds over 7 furlongs are 16/74 (21.6% SR) for 163pts (+220.3% ROI)...

...pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Admiralty Arch at 11/2 BOG, which was available from Hills and Bet365 at 6.40pm on Tuesday and to see your preferred bookies' odds, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.35 Goodwood.

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

Stat of the Day, 10th September 2016

Friday's Result :

2.20 Sandown :Silverrica @ 4/1 BOG 7th at 6/1 (Tracked leaders, ridden and one pace over 1f out, no impression after)

Saturday's pick goes in the...

3.50 Bath :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Whip Nae Nae at 4/1 BOG

Why?

Quite a simplistic approach today, revolving around the strike rates of Richard Hannon's runners here at Bath, who are towards the sharper end of the market and how they perform under today's race conditions

And my starting point is the 27.7% strike rate achieved by the Hannon runners priced at 5/1 and shorter here at Bath, via 13 winners from 47 runners. And those 47 runners have also achieved the following strike rates...

  • 40.7% finished in the top 3 LTO (11 from 27)
  • 36.7% on good to firm / firm ground (11/30)
  • 35.7% in maidens (5/14)
  • 32.3% from male runners (10/31)
  • 32.1% in non-handicaps (9/28)
  • 31% from those running 6-20 days since their last outing (9/29)
  • 30% at Class 4 (3/10)
  • 29.2% from his 2 yr olds (7/24)

AND...the Hannon males running in non-handicaps on good to firm / firm ground 6-30 days since their last run are 6 from 9 (66.7% SR) for 7.42pts (+82.5% ROI) profit.

...which gives us...a 1pt win bet on Whip Nae Nae at 4/1 BOG, from either of Bet365, BetVictor and/or Betbright, who led the way at 8.30pm on Friday, but to see your preferred bookies' odds, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.50 Bath.

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

Stat of the Day, 19th August 2016

Thursday's Result :

5.05 Chepstow : Prendergast Hill @ 6/1 BOG 5th at 11/4 (In touch on outside, ridden and effort over 2f out, soon outpaced, no impression from over 1f out) De Giles & Crowley did have a winner on the Chepstow card, but not this one!

Friday's pick goes in the...

2.20 Sandown :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Fabric at 11/2 BOG

Why?

This 2yr old filly has finished 431 so far, improving all the time and was a winner at Nottingham over this trip on similarly good to firm ground last time out 22 days ago.

An opening handicap mark of 74 doesn't appear to be beyond here, but jockey Hollie Doyle's 7lb claim might just prove to be the difference,

Trainer Richard Hannon is 5/35 (14.3% SR) for 19.76pts (+56.5% ROI) here at Sandown this year, of which...

  • 2 yr olds are 3/15 (20%) for 9.74pts (+64.9%)
  • Class 5 runners are also 3/15 (20%) for 9.74pts (+64.9%)
  • females are 3/9 (33.3%) fir 32.08pts (+356.04%)
  • and those racing over this 5f trip are 2/8 (25%) for 7.38pts (+92.2%)

In addition to this, Richard Hannon's record with Flat handicap debutants aged from 2 to 4 and priced at 11/1 and shorter stands at 36/174 (20.7%) for 51.8pts (+29.8%), including the following of interest/relevance today...

  • 2 yr olds are 20/81 (24.7%) for 29.65pts (+36.6%)
  • those last seen 11 to 25 days ago are 21/70 (30%) for 75.09pts (+107.3%)
  • LTO winners are 14/69 (20.3%) for 25.6pts (+37.1%)
  • females are 8/50 (16%) for 16.55pts (+33.1%)
  • Class 5 runners are 11/46 (23.9%) for 15.3pts (+33.3%)
  • and those racing over 5/5.5 furlongs are 6/20 (30%) for 9.67pts (+48.35%)

...but for now, it's... a 1pt win bet on Fabric at 11/2 BOG, which was offered by both Bet365 and BetVictor at 10.25pm, with plenty of 5/1 BOG available elsewhere, but to see your preferred bookies' odds, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.20 Sandown.

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

Stat of the Day, 14th July 2016

Wednesday's Result :

2.40 Catterick : Wotabreeze @ 9/2 (3.6/1 after 20p R4) BOG WON at 9/4 (Keen, held up, in rear, switched to outer over 2f out, headway to lead entering final furlong, pushed clear, won readily by three lengths easing off.)

Thursday's pick goes in the...

2.40 Chepstow :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Feed The Goater at 9/2 BOG

Why?

He's a lightly raced 3yr old gelding who has been there or thereabouts in all four starts to date, finishing 2124 so far. The ground has been too soft on his last two outings, the latest here over course and distance on soft ground 16 days ago. His best two runs came on better ground and the return to a true surface will help his cause here.

This theory has some legs, as he had Paco Pat over three lengths behind him last time out, but the latter has since (Monday) reappeared to win on quicker ground, but my focus today is on his trainer Richard Hannon and his jockey (the talented) Tom Marquand. So let's cut to the chase and start with...

Trainer Richard Hannon, who from a fairly small number of runners has already been identified as a man to follow here at Chepstow, when the money is down, because his sub-5/1 runners at this venue are 17/42 (40.5% SR) for level stakes profits of 15.5pts at an ROI of 37%, and with this race in focus....

  • males are 16/35 (45.7%) for 17.3pts (+49.3%)
  • class 5 runners are 9/23 (39.1%) for 2.7pts (+11.7%)
  • handicappers are 5/17 (29.4%) for 8.83pts (+52%)
  • on good to firm ground : 6/11 (54.6%) for 11.35pts (+103.2%)
  • over the 1m trip : 4/8 (50%) for 1.89pts (+23.6%)
  • and under Tom Marquand : 1/2 (50%) for 3.68pts (+184%)

I know these aren't the biggest samples you'll see in one of my pieces, but they're certainly relelvant and I'm not the only one who likes the Hannon horses here at Chepstow...

...for I recall reading about them in the latest excellent renewal of TrainerTrackStats, which highlighted those Hannon horses who placed well last time out quite recently and weren't running too far this time.

I won't give away the exact specifics of what the guide says, but a loose interpretation that I applied was to take those with a top 6 finish LTO, 6 to 20 days ago now racing over 5f to 1m here at Chepstow.

Those runners are actually 11 from 22 (50% SR) for 18.04pts (+82% ROI) with those priced below 5/1 winning 10 of 15 (66.7%) for 14.82pts (+98.8%).

And if you want to read exactly what Gavin thinks is the optimum angle for the Hannon runners here at Chepstow, here's how you can find out.

And now the jockey, Tom Marquand, whose own record here at Chepstow is decent with 15 winners from 58 (25.9% SR) for 42.4pts (+73.1% ROI), broken down as follows...

  • handicaps : 12/49 (24.5%) for 32.7pts (+66.7%)
  • 3/4 yr olds are 12/36 (33.3%) for 37.9pts (+105.3%)
  • those racing over a mile and beyond are 12/34 (35.3%) for 51.2pts (+150.7%)
  • Class 5 : 7/25 (28%) for 19.2pts (+76.8%)

...and so, the call is a 1pt win bet on Feed The Goater at 9/2 BOG with either Betfair's Sportsbook or Hills, who were the market leaders at 5.25pm, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering later...

...click here for the betting on the 2.40 Chepstow

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...