Posts

Stat of the Day, 26th October 2017

Wednesday's Result :

2.45 Worcester :  Pickamix @ 7/2 BOG 2nd at 3/1 : Chased leaders, every chance after 3 out, not fluent last, no extra closing stages, beaten by 2.5 lengths...

Thursday's selection goes in the...

4.15 Southwell:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Nightfly @ 3/1 BOG

Why?

A Class 4, 3yo+ handicap hurdle contest over 2m4.5f on good ground...

...featuring a 4 yr old mare looking to build upon a solid runner-up run 27 days ago when she was returning from over 28 weeks off the track.

She's trained by Charlie Longsdon, whose sub-12/1 runners are 24/83 (28.9% SR) for 28.1pts (+33.9% ROI) here at Southwell since 2012, including...

  • 5 to 8 yr olds at 22/69 (31.9%) for 32.5pts (+47.2%)
  • Class 4 runners at 16/51 (31.4%) for 19pts (+37.3%)
  • and handicappers at 9/38 (23.7%) for 14pts (+36.8%)

AND...Class 4 handicappers aged 5 to 8 yrs old are 7/26 (26.9% SR) for 19.2pts (+74% ROI).

In addition to the above and if I'm honest, what first caught my eye is that she's a daughter of one of my favourite sires, the now sadly-departed Midnight Legend. Longer-term readers of this column will know of my liking for this one, but I assure you the basis isn't sentimental : it's just profitable!

Blindly backing all Midnight Legend progeny since the start of 2008 gives just over 4400 bets and although they win at a strike rate close to 14.5% and generate an ROI of over 13%, that's just too many bets from one source for most people.

So, as you can imagine, there are an abundance of profitable angles you can derive from such a massive sample size, but one of my favourites is this very simple angle... just back his Class 3/4 female handicap hurdlers!

From an initial set of 4411 runners above, this angle gives us 68 winners from 372 (18.3% SR) for profits of 269pts at an impressive ROI of 72.3% and can be further broken down (with this race in mind) as follows...

  • at trips of 2m3f to 2m6.5f : 43/205 (21%) for 179.9pts (+87.7%)
  • on Good ground : 24/131 (18.3%) for 110.8pts (+84.6%)
  • 6 yr olds are 27/117 (23.1%) for 66.1pts (+56.5%)
  • those last seen 26-45 days earlier are 20/92 (21.7%) for 107.9pts (+117.3%)
  • whilst here at Southwell : 4/14 (28.6%) for 5.36pts (+38.3%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Nightfly @ 3/1 BOG, which was available from Betbright, SkyBet, SportPesa & 10 Bet at 5.45pm on Wednesday, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.15 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 3rd October 2017

Monday's Result :

4.40 Bath : Air of York @ 3/1 BOG WON at 10/3 : In touch, headway on outer over 1f out, ridden to lead towards finish...

Tuesday's selection goes in the...

3.45 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Marienstar @ 11/2 BOG

Why?

A 6yr old mare who was third last out over 2m3f just seven days ago, now steps up in trip by 5 furlongs to become just the 20th runner sent to Southwell by trainer Neil King since the start of 2014, but I'm sure it's not results keeping him away, as the previous ones are 4/19 (21% SR) for 11.88pts (+62.5% ROI) profit, including...

  • handicappers @ 3/13 (23.1%) for 15.49pts (+119.1%)
  • Class 4 @ 3/13 (23.1%) for 8.22pts (+63.2%)
  • hurdlers @ 3/12 (25%) for 13.88pts (+115.6%)
  • hcp hurdlers @ 2/7 (28.6%) for 16.49pts (+235.6%)
  • and 6 yr olds @ 2/7 (28.6%) for 9.22pts (+131.7%)

Now, the large step up in trip might worry some of you, but to put your mind at rest, our excellent daily trainer snippets report informs me (and you, of course!) that over the last two years, Neil King's NH handicappers asked to step up in trip by 20% or more from their last run have won 4 and placed a further 3 times from 17 for win/place strike rates of 23.5% & 41.2% respectively, with a win only bet on each them producing 20.5pts at Industry SP at an ROI of 120.6%.

And finally, we have the issue of her being turned around quickly, but fear not, as...2015-17 / hcp hurdles / aged 5-9 / priced at 13-2 and shorter / ran at least twice in last three months / last ran 1-7 days ago = 200/638 (31.4% SR) for 107.9pts (+16.9% ROI) profit at level stakes. And of those 638...

  • those running on good ground are 93/283 (32.9%) for 76.8pts (+27.2%)
  • females are 51/139 (36.7%) for 79pts (+56.8%)
  • and females running on good ground are 30/61 (49.2%) for 78.1pts (+128%) : 6/10 for 14.72pts this year already!

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Marienstar @ 11/2 BOG, which was offered by Betfair Sports, SkyBet, Sunbets & Paddy Power at 5.40pm on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.45 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 18th April 2017

Monday's Result :

2.20 Huntingdon : Hint of Grey @ 3/1 BOG 2nd at 11/4 Keen tracked leader, led soon after 3rd, clear 4th, reduced lead 3 out, ridden next, headed flat and beaten by 2 lengths.

Tuesday's pick goes in the...

3.55 Southwell...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Custard The Dragon2/1 BOG

Why?

A 4yr old gelding who has been in great form over the last 5 months, finishing 21131421 and his win over this course and distance last time out a fortnight ago took his career record to 5 from 15 on the all-weather (more on that shortly) and although he's up 3lbs for that win, he actually drops in class here today and should have too much for his rivals.

April has tended to be a good month for his trainer John Mackie in recent years with 11 winners from 70 in the last five (including this one) Aprils. That 15.7% strike rate has been good enough to generate level stakes profits of 47.6pts at an ROI of 68%, including...

  • handicaps : 10/63 (15.9%) for 36.2pts (+57.4%)
  • males : 9/50 (18%) for 48.9pts (+97.8%)
  • those who ran in the past 30 days : 9/37 (24.3%) for 69.1pts (+186.8%)
  • on the A/W  : 7/26 (26.9%) for 34pts (+130.9%)
  • and 4 yr olds are 3/18 (16.7%) for 5.7pts (+31.6%)

And before I leave you, let's just quickly have a closer look at Custard The Dragon's record on the A/W. I said he's won 5 of 15 and this is the case, but more interestingly/relevant here are the facts that of those 15 races, he is...

  • 5/12 over this 7f trip
  • 5/11 going left handed
  • 4/11 since going to be trained by John Mackie
  • 4/6 running 8 to 15 days since his last run
  • 4/5 here at Southwell
  • 4/5 over course and distance
  • 3/5 when sent off as favourite
  • 2/4 in cheekpieces
  • and a win and a runner-up finish from his two starts under today's jockey Ben Curtis

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Custard The Dragon2/1 BOG which was fairly widely available at 6.25pm on Monday, but please take the 9/4 BOG from Betfair if you can. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.55 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

Stat of the Day, 29th March 2017

Tuesday's Result :

3.30 Hexham : Modulus @ 5/1 BOG WON at 6/1 Tracked leader, mistake 1st, outpaced before 2 out, headway before last and upsides leader when mistake, rallied run-in to lead last 50 yards to win by half a length

Wednesday's pick goes in the...

2.00 Southwell...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Treaty of Rome5/1 BOG

Why?

OK, here we have a very consistent USA-bred 5 yr old gelding who comes here in good form, despite not winning often enough. He's admittedly only 1 from 7 on the A/W, but has never finished out of the first four home and has been a runner-up three times and has also finished third once.

His only win on the A/W so far came here at Southwell under today's jockey Tony Hamilton and he has been a runner-up on his two previous efforts over course and distance.

And now to the numbers...

Since the start of 2008, USA-bred males are 386/2027 (19% SR) for 623.7pts (+30.8% ROI) here at Southwell, from which...

  • those with 12 or fewer previous runs here are 344/1689 (20.4%) for 608.4pts (+36%)
  • in handicaps : 253/1477 (17.1%) for 563.5pts (+38.2%)
  • at Class 5 : 130/679 (19.2%) for 251.6pts (+37.1%)
  • in Class 5 handicaps : 91/500 (18.2%) for 277.5pts (+55.5%)
  • in Class 5 handicaps with 12 or fewer previous runs here : 77/399 (19.3%) for 218.1pts (+54.7%)
  • and in Class 5 handicaps with 12 or fewer previous runs here 2014-17 : 23/93 (24.7%) for 231pts (+248.4%)

In addition to his country of origin being key to possible success, his actual breeding might point the way as offspring of War Front are 25/104 (24% SR) for 67.1pts (+64.6% ROI) over 6 furlongs, whilst his 5/6 yr olds are 9/33 (27.3% SR) for 52.1pts (+158% ROI) profit...

...pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Treaty of Rome5/1 BOG which was available from Betway, Betbright, Hills, BetVictor & SkyBet at 6.10pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.00 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

Stat of the Day, 21st March 2017

Monday's Result :

5.30 Kempton : Athassel @ 4/1 BOG 3rd at 3/1 Went left start mid-division, headway entering final 2f, soon switched right, effort inside final furlong, not quicken towards finish, beaten by less than a length.

Monday's pick goes in the...

5.35 Southwell...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

State Residence10/3 BOG

Why?

6th on handicap debut LTO 25 days ago, but a little unlucky to be that far back after experiencing traffic problems and is interesting now he has been eased a couple of pounds.

Since the start of 2014, in Class 5/6 handicaps at odd of 5/2 to 15/2, jockey Josh Doyle has 12 winners from 54 rides (22.2% SR) for trainer David O'Meara recording level stakes profits of 21.4pts (+39.6% ROI) and of these 54 rides...

  • 3yr olds are 7/18 (38.9%) for 29.4pts (+163.5%)
  • in apprentice handicaps : 5/17 (29.4%) for 17.2pts (+100.9%)
  • and on 3 yr olds in apprentice handicaps : 2/6 (33.3%) for 8.62pts (+143.6%)

Yet, despite this being only his second crack at a handicap and him being lowered a couple of pounds State Residence still finds himself at the head of the weights/official ratings here, but that's not necessarily a hindrance, as (and this isn't as complicated as in looks in text form!)...

...since 2010 / Southwell All-Weather / 6f to 1m4f / males aged 3 to 6 yrs old / ran 6 to 60 days ago / now top rated in a Class 5/6 race and priced shorter than 7/1 = 184/588 (31.3% SR) for 69pts (+11.7% ROI) profit, from which...

  • those who ran in a hcp LTO : 133/434 (31%) for 66.4pts (+15.3%)
  • those now running in a hcp : 127/423 (30%) for 65.7pts (+15.5%)
  • those who last ran 21 to 60 days back : 75/223 (33.6%) for 52.4pts (+23.5%)
  • and in apprentices' races : 13/33 (39.4%) for 32.2pts (+97.6%)

AND...those running in a handicap 21 to 60 after a handicap run last time out are 44/132 (33.3%) for 52.8pts (+40% ROI) with a 3/10 (30%) record in apprentice handicaps producing 8.4pts (+84%) profit.

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on State Residence 10/3 BOG which was offered by Bet365, Betfred & Totesport at 5.55pm on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 5.35 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

Stat of the Day, 15th March 2017

Tuesday's Result :

8.15 Wolverhampton : Peachey Carnehan @ 7/2 BOG (21/10 after 40p R4!) WON at 2/1 Quickly away, made all, clear 2f out, ridden over 1f out, ran on strongly, unchallenged to win by 3 lengths

Wednesday's pick goes in the...

3.15 Southwell...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Brigadoon9/2 BOG

Why?

A consistent, if not prolific runners with 5 top 3 ( including 1 win) finishes in his last six outings and has finished as runner-up on each of his last three visits here, so we know he "gets" the track and this does look an easier task today.

His yard is in great form, as Mick Appleby has saddled up 13 winners from 59 (22% SR) over the last 30 days, generating level stakes profits of some 23.2pts at an ROI of 39.3% and of those 59 runners...

  • handicappers are 12/47 (25.5%) for 24.45pts (+52%)
  • with 'cappers priced at 6/4 to 10/1 winning 11 of 33 (33.3%) for 36.5pts (+110.6%).

Moreover, Mr Appleby also does rather well at this particular venue, which just happens to be less than 10 miles from his base and has a record of 121 winners from 645 (18.8% SR) on this track since the start of 2012 and although the overall profit of 33.1pts is a modest 5.13% ROI, to be able to back that many horses blindly and make any profit is not only good news, but also a great starting point for finding more profitable angles, such as...

  • handicappers are 107/546 (19.6%) for 33.7pts (+6.2%)
  • those last seen 11-25 days back are 55/269 (20.5%) for 81.5pts (+30.3%)
  • those priced at 9/4 to 6/1 (our general price range for SotD picks) are 60/262 (22.9%) for 41.6pts (+15.9%)
  • and Class 5 runners are 47/215 (21.9%) for 53.5pts (+24.9%)

AND...if you wanted to make a small micro-system from the above, you could back Mick's handicappers at 9/4 to 6/1 after 11-25 days off track. Doing so since 2012 gives 31 winners from 102 (30.4% SR) for 62.5pts (+61.2% ROI), of which Class 5 runners are 13/36 (36.1%) for 36.3pts (+100.8%)...

...providing grounds for...a 1pt win bet on Brigadoon 9/2 BOG which was available with Betbright, Betfred, Betway, Paddy Power Totesport & SkyBet at 6.15pm on Tuesday, but PLEASE take the 5/1 BOG offered by Bet365, if you possibly can! To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.15 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

Stat of the Day, 7th March 2017

Monday's Result :

4.20 Lingfield : Goring One @ 10/3 BOG 2nd at 10/3 In touch, headway chasing leaders before 6th (5 out), 2nd before 3 out, held and one pace from next

Tuesday's pick goes in the...

2.00 Southwell...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Crosse Fire11/4 BOG

Why?

On a day that looks tough for a statistical viewpoint, I'm going to keep it simple, but that doesn't mean that (a) I don't fancy it nor (b) I haven't put the effort in!

Anyway, we've got a 5 yr old gelding with a decent if unspectacular 5 from 29 (17.24% SR) record on the All-Weather, that has generated 5.63pts profit from blind backing for an ROI of 19.4%, but it's a different story under today's conditions, as...

...all five wins have come from his twenty runs here at Southwell and this 25% strike rate has produced 14.63pts profit (+73.2% ROI), making him of serious interest now and of those 20 Southwell runs...

  • 5/16 (31.25%) for 18.6pts (+116.4%) over this 5f course and distance
  • 4/15 (26.7%) for 12.4pts (+82.4%) ridden by Kieran O'Neill
  • 4/11 (36.4%) for 16.4pts (148.7%) ridden by Kieran O'Neill over this 5f course and distance
  • 2/2 (100%) for 9.8pts (+490%) in March
  • and 1/1 when ridden by Kieran O'Neill over this 5f course and distance in March.

On top of this, when Kieran has ridden any Scott Dixon horse on this track, the partnership is worth 12 wins from 87 (13.8% SR) for 31.8pts (+36.5% ROI), which is pretty good for "bet and forget" betting.

Yet, if we disregard their 0/18 record in non-handicaps and we're left with 12 wins from 69 (17.4% SR) for 49.8pts (+72.% ROI) in handicaps, which is excellent and includes a record of 10/47 (21.3%) for 59.4pts (+126.4%) at trips shorter than 7 furlongs and in hcps over this 5f course and distance, they are 6/21 (28.6%) for 37.7pts (+179.6%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Crosse Fire 11/4 BOG which was available with Bet365, Betbright, Betfair Sports and/or Hills at 6.15pm on Monday, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.00 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all returns quoted are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

Stat of the Day, 21stFebruary 2017

Monday's Result :

2.30 Carlisle : Theatre Act @ 5/1 BOG 3rd at 7/2 Led, ridden and headed before last, no extra on run-in.

Tuesday's pick goes in the...

4.40 Southwell

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

My Renaissance 11/4 BOG

Why?

Trainer Sam England is 8/29 (27.6% SR) for 7.34pts (+25.3% ROI) over the last two months and has a perfect two from two record here on the A/W at Southwell, thanks to today's runner My Renaissance, who has quite literally been reborn since a switch to Sam's yard and a drop back to racing over 1m4f/1m4.5f.

Since that move and subsequent drop back in trip from hurdling, this 7 yr old gelding has finished 21211 with those last two runs/wins coming over this course, distance and class under today's jockey taking his A/W record to 3 from 6 over 1m4f and 3/5 for Sam England. He's 2 from 2 this year and in his career he's 2/2 in February outings.

He's by Medicean, whose offspring were 33/163 (20.25% SR) for 76pts (+46.6% ROI) in A/W handicaps during 2016, including the following of note today...

  • over 7f to 1m7.5f : 32/130 (24.6%) for 102.7pts (+79%)
  • males were 32/126 (25.4%) for 106.7pts (+84.7%)
  • at odds of 12/1 and shorter : 31/105 (29.5%) for 85.6pts (+81.5%)
  • at Class 6 : 14/65 (21.5%) for 57pts (+87.7%)
  • and here at Southwell : 3/18 (16.6%) for 21.1pts (+117.3%)

From the above, we can also find that males priced at 12/1 and shorter over trips of 7f to 15.5f were 30/85 (35.3% SR) for 99.3pts (+116.9% ROI), of which Class 6 runners won 11 of 33 (33.3%) for 34.4pts (+104.1%) and here at Southwell they were 2/8 (25%) for 4.72pts (+59%).

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on My Renaissance @ 11/4 BOG which was available with both Betfair Sports and SkyBet at 5.20pm on Monday, with plenty of acceptable 5/2 BOG on offer elsewhere. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.40 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

Stat of the Day, 26th January 2017

Wednesday's Result :

3.40 Catterick : Herons Heir @ 4/1 BOG WON at 13/2 Held up, headway approaching 5th, led and jumped left from 3 out, clear next, ridden out to win by 6 lengths.

Thursday's pick goes in the...

3.20 Southwell

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Western Presence @ 11/4 BOG

Why?

This 3yr old was a course and distance winner under today's jockey when last seen. That was 16 days ago in a higher grade than today, but the caveat is that it was a seller as opposed to today's handicap contest.

Trainer Richard Fahey and jockey Tony Hamilton don't pair up here on the A/W at Southwell as often as I'd like to to see them, which is a pity as they're 17 from 96 (17.7% SR) for 14.6pts (+15.2% ROI), from which...

  • those who last ran 6-20 days ago are 10/52 (19.2%) for 30.7pts (+59%)
  • 3 yr olds are 8/33 (24.2%) for 28.6pts (+86.7%)
  • over 5/6 furlongs : 8/29 (27.6%) for 29.6pts (+102.1%)

AND...3 yr olds running over 5/6f 6-20 dslr are 3/5 (60% SR) for 28pts (+560%)

Then we should look at another angle, perhaps? So if we take the following criteria : Fahey / handicappers / 2013 onwards / odds of 5-4 to 7-1 / previous C&D winners / LTO (anywhere) winners, we get 17 winners from 66 (25.8% SR) for 14.8pts (+22.4% ROI), including...

  • same C&D as LTO : 16/56 (28.6%) for 22.1pts (+39.5%)
  • 1-25 dslr : 17/50 (34%) for 30.8pts (+61.6%)
  • males are 11/44 (25%) for 18pts (+40.9%)
  • Class 5/6 = 7/21 (33.3%) for 9.5pts (+45.3%)
  • ridden by Tony Hamilton = 8/20 (40%) for 15.1pts (+75.5%)
  • at Class 6 : 3/8 (37.5%) for 5pts (+62.5%)

AND...males at the same C&D as LTO, 1-25 dslr are 11/28 (39.3% SR) for 34pts (+121.3% ROI)

...and...a 1pt win bet on Western Presence @ 11/4 BOG which was widely available at 6.20pm on Wednesday (although bet365 were offering 3/1) and to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.20 Southwell 

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

Stat of the Day, 19th January 2017

Wednesday's Result :

2.10 Market Rasen : Squeeze Me @ 7/2 BOG last of 6 at 12/1 Pulled hard soon led, under pressure when headed approaching 2 out, weakened before last

Thursday's pick goes in the...

3.45 Southwell

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Free Bounty @ 5/1 BOG

Why?

Beaten into fourth last time out over 2 miles in a Class 4 contest a fortnight ago and looking like he's struggled to see that trip out a couple of times recently. Back in my mind now, though, as he drops in both class and trip seeking to boost the already impressive record of his trainer, Phil McBride in A/W handicaps.

Since 2008, that record stands at 42 winners from 294 (14.3% SR) for 107.9pts (+36.7% ROI) at Classes 4 to 6, from which...

  • Class 5 = 13/85 (15.3%) for 24.3pts (+28.6%)
  • 4 yr olds are 11/60 (18.3%) for 73.3pts (+122.2%)
  • and here at Southwell : 4/15 (26.7%) for 16.5pts (+110%)

Another angle to look at is the performance of Phil's runners sent back out pretty quickly (but not too quickly!) after a decent finish and since 2010 with runners turned back out 4-15 days after a top 4 run , the yard is 33/132 (25% SR) for 55.6pts (+42.1% ROI), including of relevance today...

  • 26/100 (26%) for 67.6pts (+67.6%) in handicaps
  • 11/40 (27.5%) for 22.8pts (+57%) at Class 5
  • 4/19 (21.1%) for 26.9pts (+141.7%) from his 4 yr olds

Free Bounty also happens to be Phil's only runner at this track today and since 2009, when sending just the one to a track, he has 87 winners from 570 (15.3% SR) and profits of 133.1pts (+23.4%), from which...

  • handicappers are 53/347 (15.3%) for 88.4pts (+25.5%)
  • in Central/East England : 53/296 (17.9%) for 135.6pts (+45.8%)
  • at Class 5 : 33/186 (17.7%) for 39.6pts (+21.3%)
  • 6-15 days since last run : 32/160 (20%) for 84.7pts (+52.9%)
  • at Southwell : 4/19 (21.1%) for 12.5pts (+68.9%)

And finally (!), seeing as this is an amateur rides race, I consider the booking of Serena Brotherton a positive one, as there aren't many amateurs with a record like hers. In fact, there are plenty of pro's who like to have ridden 76 winners from 420 rides (18.1% SR) for profits of 95.1pts (+22.7% ROI) since 2008, and it's important to stress that's in ALL races, backing her blindly!

If we do our usual SotD analysis, we can break those 420 rides down as follows...

  • in handicaps : 75/410 (18.3%) for 101.6pts (+24.8%)
  • in Amateur jockey races : 69/372 (18.6%) for 101.5pts (+27.3%)
  • in Amateur jockeys' handicaps : 68/364 (18.7%) for 106pts (+29.1%)
  • at Class 5 : 27/132 (20.5%) for 73.3pts (+55.5%)
  • and in Class 5 Amateur jockeys' handicaps : 24/116 (20.7%) for 74.1pts (+63.9%), of which she was 5/15 (33/3% SR) for 15.9pts (+106% ROI) in 2016.

...all of which points to...a 1pt win bet on Free Bounty @ 5/1 BOG which was offered by both Bet365 & BetVictor at 5.30pm on Wednesday, with plenty of more than adequate 9/2 BOG elsewhere. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.45 Southwell 

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

Stat of the Day, 10th January 2017

Monday's Result :

5.05 Wolverhampton : Palenville @ 9/4 BOG 3rd at 5/2 Raced prominently just off the leader until the last furlong, when fading tamely to be beaten by almost 4 lengths.

Tuesday's pick goes in the...

1.15 Southwell

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

L'Inganno Felice @ 5/1 BOG

Why?

This 7 yr old gelding was a winner 7 days ago under today's jockey and come s here aiming to add to the successes his yard has had over the last couple of years, as trainer Iain Jardine's runners are 7/546 (14.3% SR) for 260.7pts (+47.7% ROI) since the start of 2015, from which...

  • handicappers are 62/422 (14.7%) for 263.6pts (+62.5%)
  • males are 51/355 (14.4%) for 284pts (+80%)
  • those who last ran 6-25 days ago : 51/316 (16.1%) for 214.5pts (+67.9%)
  • Class 5 : 26/171 (15.2%) for 73.7pts (+43.1%)
  • 1m3f to 2m : 35/149 (23.5%) for 179.8pts (+120.7%)
  • on the A/W : 14/108 (13%) for 56.2pts (+52.1%)
  • LTO winners : 21/65 (32.3%) for 44.5pts (+68.5%)

And if you just backed his non-NH male handicappers running within 25 days of their last outing, you'd have 30 winners from 173 (17.3%) over the two years and profits of 218.3pts at an ROI of 126.2%, including...

  • Class 5 : 12.53 (22.6%) for 94.1pts (+177.5%)
  • over 1m3f to 2m : 13/51 (25.5%) for 118.3pts (+232%)
  • on the A/W : 7/41 (17.1%) for 79.7pts (+194.3%)
  • and LTO winners are 7/26 (26.9%) for 18.3pts (+70.5%)

You could, of course, then continue to combine the above into smaller micros, but I feel it dilutes the sample size down too much to a point where 1 result (good or bad) could badly skew the figures, so I'll leave it there...

...and place...a 1pt win bet on L'Inganno Felice @ 5/1 BOG which was widely available (10 places) at 5.30pm on Monday, so we should all be able to get on at that price. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 1.15 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

Stat of the Day, 29th December 2016

Wednesday's Result :

14:00 Leicester : Foundation Man @ 4/1 BOG 2nd @ 6/1 - Led from 1st, ridden and headed 2 out, kept on and no chance with winner.

Thursday's pick goes in the...

11:45 Southwell

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Fern Owl @ 4/1 BOG

Why?

This four year old colt is up against a short priced favourite here today, but I think he looks value on what he has achieved in the past. He stayed on strongly to win from a mark of 71 (he runs off the same mark today) at Kempton in September, and a similar performance would give him a great chance.

Trainer Hughie Morrison has been among the winners recently, with the following stats applicable.

  • for the last 30 days he is 5/24 (20.83%) for 5.88pts
  • at the course over the last five years he is 20/91 (21.98%) for 18.35pts
  • and with stayers on the flat he is an impressive 40/204 (19.61%) for 30.17pts

Fern Owl seems to flourish with jockey Liam Keniry onboard, and he has the following stats.

  • for the past 14 days he is 3/21 (14.29%) for 5pts
  • at Southwell over the past year he is 3/16 (18.75%) for 0.25pts
  • and when riding Fern Owl he is 2/7 (28.57%) for 12pts

Over this distance Fern Owl is 1/5 (20%) for 6pts.

...which provides...a 1pt win bet on Fern Owl at 4/1 BOG which was available from Bet365, Paddy Power Skybet, Betfred and Betvictor (so we should all be getting the same deal!) at 18:25 on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 11:45 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

Stat of the Day, 13th December 2016

Monday's Result :

3.30 Plumpton : Shimba Hills @ 5/2 BOG WON at 2/1 Held up rear of mid-division, headway 3 out, led before last, driven out to win by 1.75 lengths.

Tuesday's pick goes in the...

12.30 Southwell...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Boots And Spurs @ 5/1 BOG

Why?

This 7 yr old gelding clearly likes it here, winning twice and making the frame on one other occasion from just four runs at this track. He's 3 from 9 at Class 5 and the market is usally a very good indicator of his chances, with him winning 6 of 18 (33.3% SR) for 16.78pts (+93.2% ROI) when priced in the 5/2 to 8/1 bracket.

He's in decent enough form of late, finishing 242 in his last three runs, and was only narrowly beaten last time out. That was here over 7f when he got caught really late in the piece, so the drop back in triop could well help him back to winning ways off the same mark and under the same jockey as last time.

He's trained by Scott Dixon, who has had 30 winners from 212 (14.2% SR) runners in Southwell A/W handicaps since the start of 2014, producing level stakes profits of 120.7pts at an ROI of 56.9%, with his "winter" (ie November-March inclusive) runners performing exceptionally well, winning 28 of 187 (15%) for 98.9pts (+52.9%)

He's also top rated by the assessor, but aided by his jockey's 7lb claim again, but being at top of the racecard isn't always a bad thing and since the start of 2011 in Southwell Class 5 A/W handicaps over 5f to 1m6f, top-rated runners who were 3-10 year old males have won 83 of 358 (23.2% SR) for 45.3pts (+12.7% ROI), of which...

  • those priced at 12/1 and shorter are 82/308 (26.6%) for 66.7pts (+21.7%)
  • 6 to 10 year olds are 32/133 (24.1%) for 84.8pts (+63.7%)
  • and 6 to 10 year olds priced at 12/1 and shorter are 31/109 (28.4%) for 80.2pts (+73.6% ROI) profit...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Boots And Spurs at 5/1 BOG with Bet365 who led the way at 5.15pm on Monday. To see your preferred bookies' odds, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 12.30 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

Stat of the Day, 6th December 2016

Monday's Result :

1.00 Ludlow : Guanciale @ 5/1 BOG non-runner (Meeting abandoned)

Monday's pick goes in the...

2.50 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Royal Holiday @ 11/4 BOG

Why?

Relatively short, sweet and simple today with a horse who is 7/31 (22.6%S R) for 69.1pts (+222.8% ROI) here on the A/W at Southwell, including...

  • 6/28 (21.4%) for 62.7pts 9+223.8%) in handicaps
  • 6/22 (27.3%) for 68.7pts (+312.2%) over this 1m trip
  • 4/19 (21.1%) for 47.1pts (+248%) in cheekpieces
  • 6/16 (37.5%) for 81.5pts (+509.2%) during August-December
  • 2/5 (40%) for 14.72pts (+294.4%) under today's jockey Robert Winston.

In addition to the above suitability for the task in hand...

...in Class 5/6 races over 5 to 11 furlongs on the A/W here at Southwell since the start of 2013, males aged 4 to 10 who were top-rated (OR) and priced at 11/2 and shorter have won 72 of 2342 races (31% SR) for level stakes profits of 47.8pts at an ROI of 20.6%.

...pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Royal Holiday at 11/4 BOG from Paddy Power and at three others, as of 5.40pm on Monday. To see your preferred bookies' odds, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.50 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

Stat of the Day, 29th November 2016

Monday's Result :

3.50 Newcastle : Savannah Beau @ 3/1 BOG 6th at 3/1 (Keen, close up, ridden 2f out, weakened final furlong)

Tuesday's pick goes in the...

1.25 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Toviere @ 4/1 BOG

Why?

Placed twice in three starts over hurdle and was a decent second of ten last time out a month ago, when probably needing a run after 22 weeks off the track.

Trainer Oliver Sherwood usually has his string in fine order when sending them here to Southwell, with 7 winners from 48 (14.6% SR) for 10.97pts (+22.8% ROI) profit since the start of 2012, with the following applicable this afternoon...

  • male runners are 7/37 (18.9%) for 22pts (+59.4%)
  • those ridden by Leighton Aspell are 6/28 (21.4%) for 23.3pts (+83.3%)
  • At Class 4 : 5/26 (19.2%) for 16.6pts (+63.8%)
  • Leighton Aspell on male runners = 6/22 (27.3%) for 29.3pts (+133.3%)
  • Leighton Aspell at Class 4 = 4/17 (23.5%) for 17.94pts (+105.5%)
  • Leighton Aspell on male Class 4 runners = 4/13 (30.8%) for 21.9pts (+168.8%)
  • and on Good to Soft ground : 3/11 (27.3%) for 7.44pts (+67.6%)

...for...a 1pt win bet on Toviere at 4/1 BOG, which was widely available at 6.05pm on Monday. To see your preferred bookies' odds, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 1.25 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard