Posts

Stat of the Day, 18th December 2018

Monday's Pick was...

5.45 Wolverhampton : Burtonwood @ 11/4 BOG 7th at 5/1 (Pulled hard tracking leader, effort over 1f out, faded final furlong but beaten by less than 1.75 lengths)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

2.00 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Tan @ 4/1 BOG

...in a 14-runner, Class 5, A/W Handicap  for 3yo+ over 5f on Fibresand worth £3752 to the winner...

Why?

This 4 yr old gelding ran well enough five days ago to finish as runner-up in a Class 4 contest at Chelmsford and has to be of interest off the same mark (74), but dropping in class in a bid to land a fourth win of the year.

He has already won one of his two attempts over course and distance and has 3 wins and 4 places from just 9 runs with today's jockey Ali Rawlinson on board. Ali, himself, is riding really well right now and over the last month has ridden 6 winners and 5 placers from 26 outings with a win strike rate of 23.1% generating level stakes profits of 10.05pts at an ROI of 38.7%.

Our trainer today is the relatively locally-based (an hour's drive away) Mick Appleby, who has excelled in this type of contest in recent years. Numerically speaking we're looking at 51 winners from 235 (21.7% SR) in Class 5 A/W handicaps here since the start of 2018. These runners do attract money from punters, hence a very modest profit of just 4.95pts at an ROI of 2.1% from those runners.

However, that's (a) backing all of them blindly, so is a good starting point and (b) we'd always expect to get more via BOG or an early non-guaranteed price. If, though, you didn't want to back them blindly and you did, of course, want to improve the SR and ROI (who wouldn't?), you could consider some of the following angles at play today...

  • for prizes of less than £4k : 49/224 (21.9%) for 10pts (+4.5%)
  • 3 to 8 yr olds : 48/206 (23.3%) for 15.8pts (+7.7%)
  • males : 36/156 (23.1%) for 11.9pts (+7.6%)
  • OR 65-74 : 35/150 (23.3%) for 23.7pts (+15.8%)
  • 3-20 days since last run : 33/135 (24.4%) for 25.1pts (+18.6%)
  • top 3 finish LTO : 27/106 (25.5%) for 13.8pts (+13%)
  • 2/1 to 6/1 : 32/98 (32.7%) for 65.3pts (+66.6%) this is a good place to look first!
  • ridden by Ali Rawlinson : 13/54 (24.1%) for 1.13pts (+2.1%)
  • and over this 5f C&D : 8/17 (47.1%) for 19.7pts (+115.9%)

...and a composite for about a dozen bets per year?

Mick Appleby + Southwell male Class 5 A/W handicappers at 3 -8 yrs old+ OR 65-74 + sub-£4k prize + less than a month's rest = 22/70 (31.4% SR) for 44pts (+62.9% ROI)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Tan @ 4/1 BOG, as offered by SkyBet, Bet365, 10Bet, SportPesa & SportNation at 5.25pm on Monday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.00 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 11th December 2018

Monday's Pick was...

2.30 Lingfield : Jennys Surprise @ 11/4 BOG WON at 5/2 (Led, not fluent 3 out, soon headed, rallied after last, stayed on under pressure to lead again last strides to win by 0.75 lengths) - keep an eye on this old girl : she's even better over further in the mud!

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

12.50 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Kommander Kirkup @ 4/1 BOG  

...in a 10-runner, Class 5, Claiming Stakes  for 3yo+ over 6f on Fibresand worth £3752 to the winner... 

Why?

This 7 yr old gelding was a course and distance winner last time out, 11 days ago and now has 4 wins and 5 places from 13 runs on this track, including...

  • 4/10 (40%) over course and distance
  • 4/8 (50%) competing for less than £8,000
  • 3/6 (50%) in fields of 8-10 runners
  • 3/3 (100%) in November/December

His trainer, Michael Herrington's LTO winners are 9/43 (20.9% SR) for 9.21pts (+21.4% ROI) profit since 2013 when sent off at odds ranging from 6/4 to 7/1 and these include...

  • on the A/W : 7/31 (22.6%) for 12.88pts (+41.6%)
  • Class 5/6 : 8/28 (28.6%) for 14.72pts (+52.6%)
  • 2016-18 : 6/28 (21.4%) for 8.21pts (+29.3%)
  • 5/6 furlongs : 5/27 (18.5%) for 5.81pts (+21.5%)
  • 11-20 days since last run : 6/19 (31.6%) for 14.57pts (+76.7%)
  • and in December : 3/4 (75%) for 2.24pts (+306%)

...whilst since 2011, Michael's runners in claimers sent off at 6/4 to 5/1 are 5/18 (27.8% SR) for 6.09pts (+33.8% ROI), from which...

  • on the A/W = 4/15 (26.7%) for 4.56pts (+30.4%)
  • 11-30 days since last run = 5/14 (35.7%) for 10.09pts (+72.1%)
  • carrying 8-13 to 9-07 = 5/11 (45.5%) for 13.09pts (+119%)
  • rated (OR) 66-79 = 5/11 (45.5%) for 13.09pts (+119%)
  • previous C&D runners = 4/11 (36.4%) for 8.57pts (+77.9%)
  • and over 6f = 3/10 (30%) for 5.9pts (+59%)

And although, they're fairly relatively small sample sizes, I do think there's a distinct MO at play, especially as those rated 66-79 carrying 8-13 to 9-07, 11-30 days after their last run are 5 from 7 (71.4% SR) for 17.09pts (+244.1% ROI), which can be further analysed as follows...

  • A/W : 4 from 6
  • prev C&D runners : 4/5
  • A/W & prev C&D runners : 4/5
  • over 6f : 3/5
  • over 6f on A/W : 3/5
  • prev C&D runners over 6f : 3/4
  • prev C&D runners over 6f on A/W : 3 from 4, all since October 2015...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Kommander Kirkup @ 4/1 BOG, as offered by half a dozen firms at 5.40pm on Monday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 12.50 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 15th November 2018

Wednesday's Pick was...

2.45 Ayr : Sophie Olivia @ 7/2 BOG PU at 4/1 (Always behind, weakened 5 out, pulled up next) 

Thursday's pick runs in the...

12.40 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Fieldsman @ 7/2 BOG  

...in a 10-runner, Class 6 A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m on Fibresand worth £3105 to the winner...

Why?

This 6 yr old gelding was third here over course and distance just three days ago, but whilst he runs off the same mark today, he does take a drop in class, which could help. His mark is a workable 65, when you consider he has won off 79, 85 & 87 on turf in the past.

He's trainer David Griffiths' only runner of the day and David's horses have gone well here recently, winning 12 of 60 (20% SR) for 17.64pts (+29.4% ROI) in handicaps on this track since the start of 2017, including...

  • males at 10/53 (18.9%) for 19.53pts (+36.9%)
  • at Class 6 : 6/23 (26.1%) for 5.09pts (+22.1%)
  • at odds of Evens to 11/2 : 10/21 (47.6%) for 24.1pts (+114.8%)
  • finished 2nd/3rd LTO : 3/10 (30%) for 3.18pts (+31.8%)
  • and ridden by Tom Marquand : 2/6 (33.3%) for 10.26pts (+171%)

...whilst Class 6 males at evens to 11/2 are 5/8 (62.5% SR) for 17pts (+212.5% ROI)...

Fieldsman also pops us as a qualifier on two micros of mine, which I'll share now, but not dig down into (time is short this morning, I'm at the dentists shortly!), but both are very workable starting points for research...

1) Since 2013 in A/W handicaps over 7f/1m, USA-bred males aged 4 to 11 are 48 from 247 (19.4% SR) for 412.3pts (+166.9% ROI)

2) Whilst since the start of 2014 in Class 5/6 handicaps over 5f to 1m4f here, males aged 2 to 8 who were the clear top weight in their race won 96 of 375 (25.6% SR) for 180.2pts (+48.1% ROI)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Fieldsman @ 7/2 BOG, a price offered by pretty much everyone at 5.50pm on Wednesday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 12.40 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 25th October 2018

Wednesday's Pick was...

8.30 Chelmsford : Molten Lava @ 5/2 BOG 5th at 7/2 (Led early, tracked leaders, ridden over 2f out, kept on same pace final furlong) 

Thursday's pick runs in the...

4.00 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Mauricio @ 11/4 BOG  

...in a 10-runner, Class 4, Conditional Jockeys Handicap Hurdle for 3yo+ over 1mf on Good ground worth £4094 to the winner... 

Why?

I'm going to keep this relatively simple today with the focus falling mainly on trainer and jockey...

Trainer Dr Richard Newland's hurdlers racing over trips shorter than 2½ miles are 107/454 (23.6% SR) for 80.2pts (+17.7% ROI) with those running in conditional jockey races winning 12 of 34 (35.3%) for 25.3pts (+74.4%).

Here at Southwell this year, Richard's hurdlers have finished 31111 with the 80% strike rate generating 1.93pts profit at an ROI of 38.5%.

Since the start of September this year, his hurdlers have won 7 of 18 (38.9% SR) for 4.24pts (+23.6% ROI)

And as it is a conditional jockey's race, we should look at our rider today, who is Charlie Hammond. Charlie has 7 wins from 22 (31.8% SR) for 8.66pts (+39.4% ROI) profit when riding in a conditional jockeys' hurdle contest on a horse trained by Dr Newland since the start of 2016 and these include of relevance today...

  • at Class 4/5 : 7/17 (41.2%) for 13.66pts (+80.4%)
  • over trips shorter than 2½ miles : 6/13 (46.2%) for 15.51pts (+119.3%)
  • at odds of 4/1 or shorter : 6/11 (54.5%) for 7.45pts (+67.7%)

...AND...at Class 4/5 over trips shorter than 2½ miles at odds of 4/1 or shorter : 5/8 (62.5% SR) for 8.31pts (+103.8% ROI) with the three losers finishing 223...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Mauricio @ 11/4 BOG, as offered by half a dozen firms  at 6.30pm on Wednesday evening, whilst Bet365 were best priced at 3/1 BOG. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.00 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 5th September 2018

Tuesday's Pick was...

5.05 Stratford : Scotsbrook Night @ 10/3 BOG fell at 9/4 (Led, driven and clear when fell at last)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

2.20 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Mr Mafia @ 7/2 BOG  

In a 12-runner, Class 4, 3m Handicap Chase for 4yo+ on Good ground, worth £4614 to the winner...

Why?

This 9 yr old has been on cracking form this year over hurdles finishing 11113 and now reverts back tot he bigger obstacles off a mark 10lbs lower than his hurdling rating. Of those five hurdle races this year, today's jockey Harry Stock has been in the saddle for all five starts and these also include of note today...

  • 2 wins & 1 place at 2m7.5f and beyond, so stamina should be fine
  • a win and a place from 2 Class 3 outings, suggesting that he's plenty good enough for a Class 4 contest,
  • where he is 2 from 2 this year

He is trained by Martin Keighley, who from a small number of runners has historically done well at this venue, winning 16 of 103 (15.5% SR) since the start of 2008, generating profits of 104pts (+101% ROI) along the way and these include of relevance today...

  • within 60 days of their last run : 14/74 (18.9%) for 106.2pts (+143.5%)
  • at Class 4 : 12/61 (19.7%) for 20pts (+32.8%)
  • 2016-18 : 8/28 (28.6%) for 26.65pts (+95.2%)
  • at odds of 6/1 and shorter : 9/26 (34.6%) for 14.8pts (+57.1%)
  • after a top 3 finish LTO : 9/25 (36%) for 38.4pts (+153.8%)
  • and 9 yr olds are 5/10 (50%) for 28.6pts (+286%)

...AND...from the above : 2016-18 + Class 4 + within 60 days of last run + odds of 5/2 to 6/1 = 6/8 (75% SR) for 28.95pts (+361.9% ROI), with 9 yr olds winning 3 from 3 (100%) for 12.82pts (+427.2%), including a win by Mr Mafia here back in June!

...which all points to... a 1pt win bet on Mr Mafia @ 7/2 BOG, a price offered by Betfair & Paddy Power as of 5.40pm on Monday evening. There's plenty of 3/1 BOG elsewhere too. To see what your preferred bookie will give you...

...click here for the betting on the 2.20 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 6th March 2018

Monday's Result :

3.45 Lingfield : Remiluc @ 3/1 BOG 2nd at 3/1 Keen tracked leaders, ridden 2 out, chased winner approaching last, kept on one pace and beaten by four lengths.

Next up is Tuesday's...

2.20 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Something Lucky @ 2/1 BOG

A Class 5, 5f handicap on fibresand worth £3,752 to the winner...

Why?

Eight runs this year already for this 6 yr old gelding, but never out of the first three home. He won three of the eight and four of the five defeats were by half a length or less, so he's bang in form and today's jockey Ali Rawlinson was in the saddle for all three wins.

This horse now has 2 wins and 3 places from 5 runs on this track, all over today's minimum 5f trip and he's won twice and placed once from three with Ali Rawlinson over course and distance.

He's trained locally (less than 30 miles South of here) by Mick Appleby who has an excellent record at this venue particularly in Class 2 to 5 handicaps with horses priced at 6/1 and shorter. Such runners are more prevalent than you'd imagine and are 74 from 238 (31.1% SR) for 69pts (+29% ROI) profit since the start of 2013, including...

  • 3-7 yr olds : 70/218 (32.1%) for 62.86pts (+28.8%)
  • males : 55/179 (30.7%) for 56.09pts (+31.3%)
  • 6-25 days since last run : 48/156 (30.8%) for 51.11pts (+32.8%)
  • top 3 finish LTO : 44/137 (32.1%) for 46.84pts (+34.2%)
  • at Class 5 : 43/133 (32.3%) for 48.62pts (+36.6%)
  • ridden by Ali Rawlinson : 22/68 (32.4%) for 20.52pts (+30.2%)
  • and over this 5f track and trip : 10/29 (34.5%) for 9.64pts (+33.3%)

AND...3-7 yr old males running at Class 5, 6-25 days since a top 3 finish LTO are 15/35 (42.9% SR) for 30.5pts (+87.1% ROI), from which...

  • Ali Rawlinson is 4/10 (40%) for 4.48pts (+44.8%)
  • over 5f : 2/4 (50%) for 6.46pts (+161.4%)
  • and with Ali over 5f = 1/1, when today's horse, Something Lucky, won here at an SP of 11/4 almost six weeks ago!

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Something Lucky @ 2/1 BOG which was available from Betfair, Paddy Power & Sunbets at 4.40pm on Monday. Bet365 were, however, offering 5/2 BOG and to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.20 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 13th February 2018

Monday's Result :

4.05 Catterick : Straidnahanna @ 5/2 BOG WON at 9/4 Prominent, led 3rd, pressed from 15th until went 2nd lengths ahead last, stayed on to win by 3.25 lengths...

We now go again with Tuesday's...

2.20 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Star Ascending @ 9/4 BOG

A Class 6, 1m4f apprentice handicap on fibresand worth £3,493 to the winner...

Why?

A 6 yr old gelding in top form after finishing 12211 in his last five outings : all here at Southwell and culminating in a course and distance success a week ago.

His trainer, Jennie Candlish will be hoping for yet another LTO winner to "double up" to continue her fine record of 23 winners from 91 (25.3% SR) for 36.98pts (+40.6% ROI) with such horses since the start of 2015, including handicappers at 21/80 (26.3%) for 39.32pts (+49.1%) and Class 6 'cappers at 5 from 13 (38.5%) for 13.46pts (+103.5%)

Furthermore, since the start of 2016, Jennie's A/W runners are 13/68 (19.1% SR) for 11.38pts (+16.7% ROI), including of relevance today...

  • handicappers : 12/59 (20.3%) for 14.73pts (+25%)
  • Class 6 : 8/41 (19.5%) for 11.85pts (+28.9%)
  • Class 6 handicappers : 8/37 (21.6%) for 15.85pts (+42.8%)
  • at Southwell : 4/16 (25%) for 7.04pts (+44%)
  • and Class 6 handicappers at Southwell : 4/15 (26.7%) for 8.04pts (+53.6%)

On top of the above, we have Jennie's record with horses sent back out after less than 10 days rest to consider, as these are 14/25 956% SR) for 68.04pts (+272.16% ROI) since the start of 2016, with LTO winners winning again on 6 of 8 (75% SR) occasions, generating profits of 8.37pts at an ROI of 104.7%.

And finally for now, since the start of 2013, Jennie's runners who were LTO winners 1-25 days earlier at the same class and trip next time out are 7/17 (41.2% SR) for 12.83pts (+75.5% ROI), with those now running at the same class, course and distance winning 3 of 7 (42.9%) for 4.27pts (+60.9%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Star Ascending @ 9/4 BOG which was available with Hills at 10.10pm on Monday with the non-BOG until morning pairing of Betfred & Totesport offering the same.. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.20 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 6th February 2018

Monday's Result :

6.45 Wolverhampton : Temasek Star @ 3/1 BOG still to run Result/report to follow later...

We continue with Tuesday's...

3.05 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Foolaad @ 11/4 BOG

A Class 3, 5f handicap on Fibresand worth £7,763 to the winner...

Why?

This 7 yr old gelding has raced seven times in the last twelve months, winning five times and making the frame in the two defeats. During this time, has has won all four starts on the all-weather, including two here at Southwell, both over today's course and distance.

He's trained by Roy Bowring, whose all-weather record since 2013 stands at 40 winners from 359 (13.7% SR) for profits of 51.9pts (+14.4% ROI) from blindly following him. Amongst those 359 runners...

  • males are 38/255 (14.9%) for 55.2pts (+21.7%)
  • here at Southwell : 32/225 (14.2%) for 38pts (+16.9%)
  • over 5f : 6/41 (14.6%) for 49.6pts (+121%)
  • LTO Winners are 11/37 (29.7%) for 21.3pts (+57.5%)
  • and in February : 6/21 (28.6%) for 30.2pts (+144%)

...all of which apply to this horse who is...

  • 5 from 9 in fields of 8-11 runners
  • 3 from 5 when priced shorter than 9/2
  • 3 from 4 over this 5f trip
  • 2 from 3 over course and distance
  • 1 from under today's jockey Robert Winston

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Foolaad @ 11/4 BOG which was available from Bet365, Betway, Coral & Ladbrokes at 5.10pm on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.05 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 30th January 2018

Monday's Result :

2.40 Hereford : All Is Good @ 7/2 BOG (=2.8/1 after a 20p R4) WON at 15/8 Led, headed after 1st, led before 3rd, clear after 2 out until last, stayed on to win by 1.5 lengths...

Next up is Tuesday's...

2.15 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Kommander Kirkup @ 9/2 BOG

A Class 5, 4yo+ Handicap over 6f on Fibresand worth £3,752 to the winner...

Why?

Once again (like Monday), it's a day of few opportunities from either a statistical or a quality perspective, but I think I've found us another to explain value proposition (as after R4, we still made almost 150% of SP yesterday), so I'm just going to give you a snippet from horse, trainer and jockey in support of my selection.

The horse...

...has run here four times to date (his last four runs in fact), all over today's course and distance, winning twice and two runner-up finishes, including last time out when beaten by just a neck at a higher grade than today, so not only is he well suited by track and trip, he's back at a more realistic level of race.

The trainer...

...Michael Herrington (more famous at home, perhaps?) has 4 winners from 16 on the A/W track here at Southwell over the last 14 months and this 25% strike rate has generated level stakes profits of 35.5pts at a terrific ROI of 22.1%, albeit from a small dataset.

and the Jockey...

...who is probably more familiar to you, is Andrew Mullen. Andrew seems to like/do well in this type of race, as since 2010, his record in 6f races on the fibresand piloting horses priced at 7/4 to 10/1 currently shows 14 winners from 58 (24.1% SR) for 27.6pts (+47.6% ROI), including...

  • in handicaps : 11/41 (26.8%) for 20.8pts (+50.7%)
  • at Class 5 : 4/16 (25%) for 20.4pts (+127.4%)
  • for Michael Herrington : 1/2 (50%) for 3.65pts (+182.5%) both on Kommander Kirkup.

...and that gives us...a 1pt win bet on Kommander Kirkup @ 9/2 BOG which was available from SkyBet & Bet365 at 5.30pm on Monday. Betfred & Totesport were matching those odds, but don't/won't offer BOG until raceday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.15 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 18th January 2018

Wednesday's Result :

1.00 Market Rasen : One of Us @ 7/2 BOG non-runner Withdrawn shortly before the race, due to unfavourable going....

Next up is Thursday's...

4.05 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Ocho Rios @ 7/2 BOG

A Class 6, 4yo+ A/W Handicap over 1m3f on Fibresand worth £3,105 to the winner...

Why?

This 5 yr old gelding was a winner last time out over course and distance 27 days ago. Not only was that his A/W debut (and ridden by today's jockey, Fran Berry, for the first time), he completely blew the start giving his rivals plenty of lengths, yet still came from last to first to win. A better start now today should more than compensate for a 6lb rise in weight.

Trainer Neil Mulholland's handicappers with a prior course and distance win who also won last time out are 1034 (29.4% SR) for 4.073pts (+13.9% ROI) over the last five years, including...

  • males : 10/29 (34.5%) for 9.73pts (+33.5%)
  • C&D winners LTO : 7/25 (28%) for 5.65pts (+22.6%)
  • at 11/8 to 5/1 : 9/22 (40.9%) for 15.08pts (+68.6%)
  • 5 yr olds : 3/9 (33.3%) for 2.73pts (+30.3%)
  • over 1m3f : 1/2 (50%) for 0.35pts (+17.5%)

PLUS...since the start of 2016 here on the A/W at Southwell, males aged 5 to 8 yrs old who had the top OR in their race have won 19 of 58 (32.8% SR) for 149.6pts (+257.9% ROI) at Classes 4 to 6 over trips of 1m2f to 1m6f, from which...

  • handicappers : 15/48 (31.25%) for 149.2pts (+310.9%)
  • those placed 1st or 2nd LTO : 7/15 (46.7%) for 57.91pts (+386.1%)
  • over 1m3f : 4/15 (26.7%) for 6.69pts (+44.6%)
  • in January : 5/12 (41.7%) for 32.1pts (+267.4%)
  • and LTO winners are 4/9 (44.4%) for 3.23pts (+35.9%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Ocho Rios @ 7/2 BOG which was available from Bet365, BetVictor & SkyBet at 7.20pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.05 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 9th January 2018

Monday's Result :

2.30 Hereford : Steel Native @ 4/1 BOG non-runner meeting abandoned (frozen)....

Next up is Tuesday's...

1.45 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

London @ 7/1 BOG

A Class 3, 4yo+ Handicap over 1m on Fibresand worth £7,561 to the winner...

Why?

Well, on first inspection, I marked this down as a fairly open but mediocre contest that shouldn't take much winning and at 7/1, London looked a good couple of points too long (in my opinion, of course!)

He ran very well in a higher grade (C2) two starts ago when going down by a couple of lengths at Chelmsford and despite not faring as well in that grade last time out, having to race wide at Lingfield makes nobody's day any better!

Down in class, he has a decent draw and looks likely to be setting the pace on a track that rewards front runners (the pace tab on your Geegeez racecard will confirm this) and with Nicola Currie taking 5lbs off, he should be competitive at the very worst.

Speaking of that jockey claim, trainer Phil McEntee's A/W handicappers ridden by 5lb claimers are 11/58 (19% SR) for 95.77pts (+165.1% ROI) over the last three years, including of relevance today...

  • males are 10/49 (20.4%) for 88.4pts (+180.3%)
  • over trips of 6f to 1m : 11/41 (26.8%) for 112.77pts (+275%)
  • 4-15 days since last run : 7/27 (25.9%) for 89.93pts (+333.1%)
  • 5 yr olds are 6/17 (35.3%) for 89.9pts (+529%)

London has only raced once here before in his 22 career starts, but I'd imagine that as time goes by, he should get used to the surface with him being a son of Galileo, whose offspring are 20/146 (13.7% SR) for 29.1pts (+19.9% ROI) over a mile on the A/W since 2012, whilst since 2010 those running over this track & trip are 4/11 (36.4%) for 3.1pts (+28.2%), including 2 winners from 3 (66.6%) for 2.69pts (+89.5%) last year.

...pointing to...... a 1pt win bet on London @ 7/1 BOG which was available from Bet365, Betfair, BetVictor and SkyBet at 6.15pm on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 1.45 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 19th December 2017

Monday's Result :

4.40 Wolverhampton : Carp Kid @ 5/1 BOG WON at 5/2 Steadied and switched left start, soon close up, switched right entering final 2f, ridden to lead approaching final furlong, edged left and ridden out inside final furlong

Next up is Tuesday's...

1.00 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Mach One @ 5/2 BOG

A Class 5, 3yo+ Handicap over 1m on Fibresand worth £2,911 to the winner...

...and an in-form (2121 in last 4 outings) 3 yr old gelding who was a winner here over course and distance last time out eight days ago taking his A/W record to 2 wins and 3 places from just 6 efforts, including...

  • 2w, 3pl from 5 on standard, the same going left handed and the same in cheekpieces
  • 2w, 2pl from 5 over 1m, 2 from 3 under today's jockey and a win & a place from 2 runs here
  • a win and a place from 2 efforts over course and distance.

Since last week's C&D success, his stablemates have also been going well winning 3 from 9 over the last seven days for trainer Archie Watson, who is profitable to back blindly on the A/W!

Backing all of Archie's A/W runners to date would have seen you collect 37 times from the bookies off just 162 bets (22.8% SR) making profits of 26.5pts +16.3% ROI) along the way and of those 162 runners...

  • those priced at 8/1 and shorter are 36/126 (28.6%) for 50.8pts (+40.3%)
  • at Class 5 : 19/67 (28.4%) for 27.6pts (+41.2%)
  • those running just 4-15 days after their last run are 17/58 (29.3%) for 43.4pts (+74.8%)
  • in December/January : 11/40 (27.5%) for 17.7pts (+44.2%)
  • and here at Southwell : 3/7 (42.9%) for 3.5pts (+50%)

Furthermore (and more generally), on the A/W here at Southwell over the last three years, it has paid to simply back the horses with the top Official Rating in each race. It sounds far too simplistic, but blindly punting them has seen 183 winners from 964 (19% SR) for 89.7pts (+9.3% ROI) !

9.3% doesn't sound much, but trust me, from blind filter-free backing, it's excellent. If you did want to filter them, a logical progression would be...

  • males @ 150/758 (19.8%) for 156.7pts (+20.7%)
  • handicappers @ 117/700 (16.7%) for 48pts (+6.9%)
  • and at Class 5 : 77/394 (19.5%) for 116.7pts (+29.6%)

AND...top rated (OR) males in Class 5 handicaps are 32/179 (17.9% SR) for 97pts (+54.2% ROI).

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Mach One @ 5/2 BOG which was widely available at 5.30pm on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 1.00 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 5th December 2017

Monday's Result :

1.40 Plumpton : Jester Jet @ 3/1 BOG WON at 11/2 Tracked leaders, smooth headway to lead before 2 out, clear between last 2, kept on well, comfortably by 3.75 lengths.

Next up is Tuesday's...

12.50 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Get Rhythm @ 3/1 BOG

A Class 3, 4yo+ Novices Limited Handicap Chase over 1m 7.5f on Good ground worth £10,635 to the winner...

...featuring a 7 yr old gelding who has finished 2112 in his last four starts, culminating in an excusable defeat three weeks ago. I say excusable because, it was his chasing debut, the ground was unsuitably soft for him and he probably needed the run after almost 21 weeks off the track.

All that considered, a 2 length defeat over 2 miles when only headed in the final half furlong wasn't a bad effort, but he looks better suited today as he should come on for having had a run, he should benefit from the experience of tackling the bigger obstacles, we've got good ground today and he drops back half a furlong.

He 's trained by Tom George who has a 20% strike rate over the last fortnight (5/25) with 3 of his last 8 chasers winning, so the yard seems in good health and over the last six years here at Southwell, his string are 25/81 (30.9% SR) for 33.3pts (+41.1% ROI), including of relevance today...

  • at odds of 12/1 and shorter : 25/71 (35.2%) for 43.3pts (+61%)
  • males are 19/64 (29.7%) for 26.7pts (+41.7%)
  • from September to March : 20/55 (36.4%) for 44.2pts (+80.4%)
  • on debut today or finished 2nd, 3rd or 4th LTO : 16/39 (41%) for 51.5pts (+132.1%)
  • over 1m7.5f/2m : 13/39 (33.3%) for 22.4pts (+57.5%)
  • 21-60 days since horse's last run : 12/37 (32.4%) for 15.4pts (+41.5%)
  • ridden by Adrian Heskin : 6/17 (35.3%) for 5.6pts (+33%)
  • 7 yr olds are 3/12 (25%) for 7.1pts (+59.2%)
  • and LTO runners-up are 5/10 (50%) for 15.61pts (+156.1%)

As I alluded above, Adrian Heskin takes the ride today and he has become Tom's go-to jockey of late and overall together they are 68/331 (20.5% SR) for 76.6pts (+23.1% ROI) with Class 3/4 handicap chases providing 27 winners from 103 (26.2% SR) for 32.1pts profit at an ROI of 31.1%.

...pointing towards... a 1pt win bet on Get Rhythm @ 3/1 BOG which was widely available at 5.45pm on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 12.50 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 1st December 2017

Thursday's Result :

1.20 Taunton : Silent Steps @ 5/2 BOG 2nd at 9/4 Led to 3rd, remained with leader, led before 2 out, soon pushed along and outpaced, kept on and held towards finish, beaten by just three quarters of a length.

So no winning end to November, but a small profit was made over the month and we now kick off December with Friday's...

2.10 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Tellovoi @ 11/4 BOG

A Class 6, A/W Handicap over 1m on Polytrack worth £2588 to the winner.

A 9 yr old gelding, 2lbs the right side of the weights who came very close Newcastle a week ago despite missing the break, which is far from ideal over 7f! That said he finished the strongest, managing to get within a length of a winner who he was conceding weight to. An extra furlong that day would have seen him win and he gets that extension here today.

He's already got 2 wins and 3 places from 9 starts here and his overall A/W record includes...

  • 4 wins and a place from 9 runs in December/January
  • 2 wins and 2 places from 9 runs over 1m
  • 3 wins and a place from 7 priced at 4/1 and shorter
  • 3 wins and 2 places from 5 when sent off as favourite
  • 2 wins and 4 places from 7 at Class 6
  • 2 wins from 3 in fields of 8-10 runners
  • 1 win and 1 place from 3 over course and distance
  • and 1 win and 1 place from 3 within a week of his last run.

In addition to the above, it's certainly worth noting that in A/W handicaps here at Southwell since the start of 2014, 6-10 yr old males who had the highest Official Rating in the race have won 61 of 300 (20.3% SR) for 165.3pts (+55.1% ROI) after running in a handicap last time out.

Of these 300 "top weights"...

  • Class 4 to 6 runners are 56/270 (20.7%) for 173.1pts (+64.1%)
  • in fields of 5 to 11 runners : 55/239 (23%) for 155.5pts (+65.1%)
  • at Class 6 : 28/133 (21.1%) for 45.2pts (+34%)
  • running within 6-10 days of last run : 23/62 (37.1%) for 59.6pts (+96.1%)
  • LTO runners-up are 8/33 (24.2%) for 54.4pts (+164.8%)
  • and those beaten by 0.25 to 1 length LTO are 4/16 (25%) for 28.5pts (+177.9%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Tellovoi @ 11/4 BOG which was widely available at 5.45pm on Thursday, but there was some 10/3 BOG (Sky) and some 3/1 non-BOG until Morning (Betfred/Totesport) around for those able to take advantage.

I'm on with Sky, but in the interests of fairness and transparency I'll be recording an 11/4 BOG bet for the records. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.10 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 28th November 2017

Monday's Result :

2.30 Kempton : Play The Ace @ 10/3 BOG WON at 6/1 Mid-division, headway to chase leaders 6th, hampered 3 out, led before next, soon challenged, hard ridden, ran on well to win by a length.

Next up is Tuesday's...

1.10 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Kaaber @ 7/2 BOG

A Class 6, 3yo+ A/W Handicap over 6f on Fibresand worth £2588 to the winner.

And an in-form 6 yr old gelding who has won two of four starts since a switch to Michael Blake's yard. Only one of those runs was on the A/W, mind, but it did result in a course and distance win under today's jockey Mitch Godwin last time out, 37 days ago. Mitch is now 3 from 8 on the back of this one and with past form in mind, I already liked Kaaber here.

I then went through my usual stat checklists and the horse just kept popping up all over the place, so I'm going to give you just five different strands to back this one up and I'll keep them as brief as I can!

First up : Michael Blake's LTO winners are 13/37 (35.1% SR) for 66.6pts (+180.1% ROI) since the start of 2015 with handicappers winning 10 of 29 (34.5%) for 68.3pts (+235.7%).

Then we have Mitch Godwin riding three winners from six rides (50% SR) for Michael Blake here at Southwell, all in handicaps and producing profits of 23.84pts at an ROI of 397.3%.

Kaaber has the (USA) suffix to his name and USA-bred males aged 4-9 yrs old are 207/1146 (18.1% SR) for 559.9pts (+48.9% ROI) in A/W handicaps at 1m6f and shorter here at Southwell since 2008, from which...

  • those with fewer than three previous runs on this track are 111/479 (23.2%) for 504pts (+105.2%)
  • in 2017 : 13/53 (24.5%) for 230.1pts (+434.2%)
  • and in 2017, those with fewer than three previous runs on this track are 7/25 (28%) for 226.1pts (+904.4%)

Kaaber is Michael's only runner at this track today and since 2015, his solo entrants are 31/189 (16.4% SR) for 85.6pts (+45.3% ROI), from which handicappers are 26/156 (16.7%) for 100.7pts (+64.6%), whilst here at Southwell it's 5/13 (38.5%) for 32.32pts (+248.6%) all in handicaps.

And I'll complete the circle by briefly discussing the sire, Daaher, whose offspring are 11/78 (14.1% SR) for 45.2pts (+58% ROI), including...

  • at Class 6 : 5/29 (17.2%) for 40.7pts (+140.3%)
  • 5/6 yr olds are 4/20 (20%) for 46.9pts (+234.5%)
  • and over 6 furlongs = 4/18 (22.2%) for 48.9pts (+271.6%)

...AND 5/6 yr olds racing over 6f at Class 6 are 4/7 (57.1% SR) for 59.9pts (+855.6% ROI), a stat slightly skewed by the fact that all 7 runs were by Kaaber! And of those 7 runs, Mitch Godwin has 3 winners from 4 (75% SR) for 53.97pts (+1352% ROI), taking us back to where we started!

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Kaaber @ 7/2 BOG which was generally available at 6.40pm on Monday and to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 1.10 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!