Tag Archive for: Southwell racecourse

Racing Insights, Thursday 15/02/24

/in /by

Did you know that the Instant Expert tab is by far the most popular tab on the geegeez racecards?

That's because it has the ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view. The report covers the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size. It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

This GOLD feature is so important that we make freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday alongside our usual selection of FREE races which, for this Thursday are...

  • 2.20 Clonmel
  • 2.55 Clonmel
  • 3.47 Southwell
  • 4.00 Newcastle
  • 4.05 Clonmel

...from which I think I'll take a look at the 3.47 Southwell, 10-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 6f on standard tapeta...

Bottom weight Hiatus was a winner last time out and Northern Spirit made the frame for the ninth time in his last eleven starts (inc 3 wins). Sluzewiec has yet to win any of five UK outings, but did win six starts ago in France, whilst Gulliver, Grenham Bay and Seven Brothers have failed to win any of their last 8, 12 and 11 races respectively.

Seven Brothers' bid to break his cold spell might not be helped by not having had a run for almost eight months, whilst Northern Spirit also returns from 20 weeks off the track. The rest of the field have all raced in the last month with She's Centimental turned back out just five days after her last run.

Evocative Spark and Sluzewiec are the only two in this field yet to win over this trip, whilst previous Southwell winners Gulliver, Billyjoh, She's Centimental and Hiatus are all course and distance winners and these are highlighted on Instant Expert...

...where Evocative Spark's numbers over the last couple of years haven't been great under today's conditions in general. Gulliver, Grenham Bay and Hiatus haven't won many on standard going and the latter two have struggled in this grade, as has She's Centimental, but she interests me with her four wins over today's trip. Sadly she has only made the frame once in her seven defeats at this trip and it is Northern Spirit who catches the eye on the place data...

...although he is shown as being some 11lbs higher than his last A/W win, but he is only 8lbs higher than his last turf win and has finished third in each of his last two outings, both off today's mark. He's drawn pretty much slap bang in the middle of the stalls in box 5 for a contest where it has been more favourable to be drawn in stall 7 or lower over the last couple of years...

Those same races have also suited horses keen to get on with things...

...making this draw/pace heat map less than surprising...

...where runners drawn mid to high with a hold up running style have really struggled. We know how this field have approached their last four outings...

...which sadly shows a distinct lack of early pace, suggesting that we might well get a falsely run race.

Summary

Sadly, I haven't picked a great race to analyse, which is the risk I take by doing the piece on a 'live' basis. My thoughts here are that Northern Spirit should be the best runner in the race, but has tended to find one or two a bit too good for him, especially off his current career high mark. He hasn't raced for over 20 weeks and all things considered, 7/2 is a little on the short side. Billyjoh is even shorter as the 13/8 favourite and that looks a bit tight based on his last run, so he's not for me.

That then does leave us with eight runners priced at 8/1 or bigger and there could well be some E/W action and whilst I'm probably going to sit this one out, the ones that I'd be interested would probably be She's Centimental and LTO course and distance winner Hiatus, who both opened up at 8/1 with bet365.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 23/01/24

/in /by

The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information] and here is Tuesday's Shortlist...

...where the first two would be of most obvious interest initially. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover the following...

  • 2.55 Down Royal
  • 4.20 Newbury
  • 6.00 Southwell
  • 8.00 Southwell

And I suppose it makes most sense to focus on the last of those four races, where Crimson Angel and The Bell Conductor from The Shortlist will take on six others in the 8.00 Southwell, a Class 4, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a straight 5f on standard tapeta...

None of these won last time out, but both Evocative Spark and Reigning Profit finished third. Mondammej and Love Your Work are the only ones without a win in their last seven outings, arriving here on losing runs of 29 & 16 races respectively!

Love Your Work's chances of breaking that cold spell are lessened by a step up in class, just as Reigning Profit does, but The Bell Conductor and Lihou drop a class whilst Revenite drops down two levels, but hasn't raced for seven months so will probably need the run.

That lay-off aside, the field have all been seen in action in the last six weeks with Mondammej's latest defeat coming just a week ago. yet despite his long losing run, he has previously won over this trip, unlike Revenite, Evocative Spark and Love Your Work. The latter has, however, won on this track over both 7f and a mile whilst our other three previous Southwell winners (The Bell Conductor, the fast-finishing Lihou and Crimson Angel) have all scored over course and distance...

As you'd expect, our two runners from The Shortlist, The Bell Conductor and Crimson Angel, feature prominently on Instant Expert...

...where the vulnerable runner looks like being Reigning Profit with a 2 from 14 A/W record at both standard going and 5f. Love Your Work is 0 from 13 at this grade and that's another concern for those hoping he'll break that long losing run. And with just one placed finish from those 13 Class 4 A/W defeats...

...Love Your Work joins Reigning Profit and Revenite in my discard pile, despite his apparent decent record (7 wins, 7 places from 24) here at Southwell. That record, however, is all at 7f and a mile and with him being a career 2 from 24 shorter than a mile, it's a no from me.

There's no real advantage to be gained from the draw here, not that you'd expect there to be over a straight 5f sprint, although the draw thirds suggest low-drawn runners haven't fared as well as par score...

Yet, if we consider actual stall-by-stall data...

...there really is very little in it and I'd be very surprised if the draw cost any runner this or any other Southwell 5f contest. Pace/tactics , however, are a totally different kettle of fish with a distinct advantage offered to those quickest away...

...which means that the following graphic should contain few shocks...

Yet strangely, there's a distinct lack of early pace shown by this field in their last few outings...

...with only The Bell Conductor and Reigning Profit likely to burst out.

Summary

Pace supposedly wins the race here at Southwell over 5f, but neither The Bell Conductor nor Reigning Profit scream "back me!" The former has struggled for form of late, whilst the latter made little appeal from Instant Expert. The Bell Conductor is 3 from 5 over course and distance but was well beaten here last time out and even at 14/1 E/W, I'm struggling to convince myself to 'stick a couple of quid on' and I don't fancy Reigning Profit, especially as a 3/1 fav!

Mondammej is next in the market at 7/2, but he's unreliable from a win perspective having lost 29 on the bounce since November 2021. The rst of the field have a very similar pace profile to each other and if I was to pick one from those likely to be slower away, it would be Crimson Angel from The Shortlist. She's still relatively unexposed, she's 1 from 1 here, 2 from 5 over the trip and 2 from 3 under today's jockey. She's not a shoo-in by any means, but at Hills' 15/2 offered at 4pm, Crimson Angel is my idea of an E/W bet.

 

Racing Insights, Thursday 18/01/24

/in /by

Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 12.50 Wincanton
  • 1.20 Chelmsford
  • 1.35 Newcastle
  • 2.50 Fairyhouse

No jumps racing on Thursday and the sole remaining free race is a poor-looking Class 6 affair. In fact the whole Chelmsford card consists of 2 x Class 5 and 4 x Class 6. There's an evening meeting at Southwell, though, and this has 2 x Class 5 and 5 x Class 6 plus the race I'm going to look at : the 6.30 Southwell, an 11-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 1m3f on standard tapeta...

The consistent (six top 3 finishes on the bounce) Qaasid was a runner-up last time out and bottom-weight Tiger Beetle was third on his last run, but we've no LTO winners and three of these (Barenboim, Howth & Furzig) have lost at least seven consecutive outings.

Top-weight Valsad makes his yard debut for Jamie Osborne and drops down a class to run here, as do Barenboim, Queen of Ipanema (1st time in cheekpieces), Cavern Club and Furzig. The fast-finishing bottom-weight Tiger Beetle steps up in class, though, as does Tenerife Sunshine, whilst Haveyoumissedme is noted as another fast finisher.

Valsad and Cavern Club have both been rested for just over three months and it's well over six months since Qaasid was turned out. The remainder have, however, all raced in the last month or so. If we go back to Qaasid, we see that he's our sole course and distance winner, but Valsad has also won at this track, landing a £52k, Class 2, 1m4f handicap three starts ago, He has also won over a similar trip to this one elsewhere, as have Barenboim, Cavern Club and Tenerife Sunshine.

Past relevant form is highlighted via Instant Expert, of course...

...and as seems to be the case right now, it's a pretty mixed bag. Queen of Ipanema has a great A/W strike rate, of course, but Qaasid and Sonnerie Power have both won just 1 in 7 on standard going. Barenboim has struggled to win at Class 3, whilst this trip hasn't managed to get Tiger Beetle or Howth to win any of 22 combined starts, whilst Qaasid is just 2 from 13.

We do know, however, that Qaasid is a bit better than the above stats might suggest, as he's a consistent/regular placer as shown by the place stats, where he suddenly looks like a force to be reckoned with...

...although his consistency is pushing him up the weights and he's now 8lbs higher than his last win and Cavern Club also finds himself in a similar predicament at 9lbs above his last win.

The tapeta track is relatively new here at Southwell and over similar distances with a similar field size, there doesn't to be much (if any) advantage to be gained from the draw...

...as leaders tend to win more often, but make the frame less often, whilst from a pace perspective it has paid to avoid front-runners...

...which might not be good news for Valsad if he forced to take up the running in the absence of a true front-runner...

...whilst the pace/draw heat map suggests high-drawn hold-up horses have done well, but not as well as the low-drawm prominent horse...

...and if we translate this data to our racecard...

...Queen of Ipanema is probably our high-drawn hold-up type and Qaasid our low-drawn prominent runner.

Summary

Queen of Ipanema has a great A/W strike rate and scoresd well on Instant Expert and on pace/draw and at 8/1 with Hills (5.45pm Wednesday), I think she's a good E/W prospect, especially with four places being available.

Qaasid is a regular placer who scored well on the place side of Instant Expert. He also fills the pace/draw role as low-drawn prominent and whilst he's not a regular winner, he's a reliable sort to make the frame and had he been a little longer than 13/2, I've have been tempted into another E/W bet.

As for a winner, you could make a case for a handful of these and none really stand out for me, so I'll leave that well alone, but leave you with the thought that the 9/1 Caver Club might be one for the frame too.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 09/01/24

/in /by

The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

Here are my qualifiers on Tuesday's Shortlist...

...where Autumn Return is of obvious immediate interest. I suspect he'll be a fairly warm favourite in a 6-runner contest, so I'm grateful that as ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...

  • 12.55 Exeter
  • 1.55 Exeter
  • 2.10 Market Rasen

The abandonment of Exeter has left us a bit thin on the ground and the free race at Market Rasen is only a 5-runner Class 3 affair, so we'll head to the relative safety of the A/W for the day's highest-rated race, the 7.00 Southwell, a 13-runner, Class 2, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 7f on standard tapeta...

Doctor Khan Junior is our sole LTO winner and he has won four of his last six. Intervention was a runner-up on his last outing after four consecutive victories, whilst Greatgadian, Zip, Chuzzlewit, Follow Your Heart, Gulliver and Starshiba have all won at least one of their last seven.

Stone Soldier, the fast-finishing Gulliver and Stashiba are all up one class here, whilst the in-form duo of Intervention & Doctor Khan Junior both step up two levels for a race that sees the out of sorts Trumble make a second debut for David Loughnane, after two runs away in Ireland for Claire O'Connell.

Only Excel Power and Greatgadian have yet to win over 7f, whilst Lord of the Lodge, Stone Soldier, Intervention and Zip have all scored over course and distance. Gulliver's 7f wins have been at Lingfield (A/W) and at York on the Flat, but he's 2 from 2 here over 6f and this is shown on the stats created by our Instant Expert...

...that also highlights his lack of wins at this grade and trip on the A/W. Misty Grey makes a course debut here under what looks like favourable conditions if he gets this track first time up. In fact, most of these have decent enough records under the current conditions, although Zip has struggled to win at Class 2.

The draw stats from previous 7f races on the tapeta here have favoured those drawn lower than halfway...

...which isn't the best duo for our in-form duo of Intervention & Doctor Khan Junior, who both have to race from the widest stalls as well as step up two classes. Gulliver and Misty grey seem to have the best of the draw from stalls 1 and 2, but they look set to approach this contest in very different ways. If we look back over this field's last three runs, we see that Gulliver is a confirmed hold-up horses and that Misty Grey had led once and raced prominently once in his last three...

...and that Lord of the Lodge, Excel Power and Intervention look like the main pace-setters here. If we refer back to those 50+ races we used to assume that a low draw was better than a high one, we can see that those horses willing to get on with it early have enjoyed the greatest success...

The three main pace-setters are actually drawn in stalls 8, 11 and 13 and it's unusual to have many leaders from wide draws here. Those attempting it have done well, though, as shown by our pace/draw heat map...

...which does seem to suggest that the draw might not necessarily mean that Intervention can't go well here.

Summary

Doctor Khan Junior is in great form and can overcome a high draw if getting a tow into the race by Intervention just on his inside and I fancy both of these to continue their fine form and make the frame (4 places here), whilst at the other end of the scales, Misty Grey looks to also have a great chance. I'd take all three to make the frame here and if pushed for a fourth runner to join them, Id' probably be looking at the likes of Lord of the Lodge to try and hang in at the front for as long as he can.

Of the four I like Intervention the most and 15/2 looks an interesting price, whilst a longer priced horse who might outrun his odds could be the 16/1 Gulliver.

Racing Insights, Saturday 06/01/24

/in /by

Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have actually generated no qualifiers for me to consider, so it's a good job that I've got our batch of daily free racecards to fall back on...

  • 11.55 Newcastle
  • 1.57 Cork
  • 2.25 Sandown
  • 2.32 Cork
  • 3.42 Cork
  • 7.00 Southwell

Take away the three Irish races (not my thing) and the abandonment of Sandown, I'm left with a Class 5 Mares' Bumper for Conditional/Amateur Jockeys and a Class 5 fillies' A/W handicap. The latter looks the lesser of two evils, so let's head back to Southwell, where Nolton Cross won for us today and have a look at the 7.00 race, an 8-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ fillies' A/W handicap over a left-handed 7f on standard tapeta...

Our sole LTO winner is Storymaker, who comes here seeking a hat-trick after she beat the re-opposing Sixties Chic by 2.5 lengths with the latter finishing third. Sixties Chic is, however, effectively 3lbs better off today. Platinum Jubilee was a runner most recently, but she's a four-race maiden, whilst Smiling Sunflower is the only without a win the last six races, having been beaten eight times on the bounce.

We have a couple of class droppers here, as joint top weight Just Janet is down one level and the other joint top-weight Finery is down three classes. Abbey's Dream wears first-time blinkers, whilst Platinum Jubilee's first run with a tongue tie coincides with her second handicap run. The card also denotes Liberty Mountain, Storymaker and Sixties Chic as fast finishers.

All bar the 7yr old Finery and the 5 yr old Smiling Sunflower are aged 4 and all bar Platinum Jubilee and Sixties Chic have already won over today's trip with the joint top weights, Just Janet & Finery have scored over course and distance...

Sixties Chic and Finery catch the eye at class/going, but the latter has only won 1 of 7 at this trip with a mile seeming to be her preferred distance. Abbey's Dream is 1 from 10 on a standard surface and Smiling Sunflower looks generally weak, so they're not making much appeal, although Abbey's Dream does have a decent set of placed finishes...

From that second graphic, I'd probably now ignore the bottom three to focus on the five drawn in stalls 3 and 5 to 8, so I'm hoping that of there's a draw bias here, it suits those drawn highest!

And that does seem to be the case...

...although from a place perspective ,the PRB3 figures favour the lower drawn runners...

That said, over 7f, race tactics aka pace are often the deciding factor, but the pace stats from those races above is almost as inconclusive as the draw data...

..and I think it's going to be like Friday's race here, where class ends up being the key and the best horses just come to the fore.

If we briefly consider how pace and draw work together, we see this...

...and our field have raced like this recently...

...which we can then overlay onto the pace/draw heatmap as follows...

Summary

I suspect Finery and Abbey's Dream will set the early tempo here, but that will just give the fast finishers Liberty Mountain, Storymaker and Sixties Chic a target to aim at. The first of that trio is bang out of form, but the other two ran really well against each other a fortnight ago and I now think they'll both overhaul the leaders to finish first and second.

Sixties Icon is now 3lbs better off with Storymaker, so I think she might well reverse the placings and win here, but there won't be much in it, as testified by them being installed as joint 7/2 favourites.

Finery is currently 7/1 and could well hold/hang on for a place but the lightly raced Platinum Jubilee rates a big threat.

 

Racing Insight, Friday 05/01/24

/in /by

Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the report...

...have yielded three qualifiers...

...and I can always fall back upon our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 12.02 Southwell
  • 1.12 Southwell
  • 1.55 Musselburgh
  • 3.55 Ludlow

...and the highest-rated of those six races above is the 1.12 Southwell, an 11-runner, Class 3, 4yo+, A/W handicap over a left-handed 1m4f on standard tapeta...

Only Haku won last time out, although Heathen was a runner-up having won two starts ago, as did Chase The Dollar. Nolton Cross & Rhythmic Intent are other LTO runners-up and Ensured finished third on his last run, albeit some 937 days ago in mid-June 2021! Nolton Cross, Rhythmic Intent, Buxted Too and Achnamara all coming here on losing runs of seven or more races (9, 14, 8 & 10 to be exact!). Haku's LTO win was by a head over the re-opposing Nolton Cross and the runner-up is now 1lb better off.

We know Ensured has been off track for nearly 31 months, but the remainder have all raced fairly recently. Valsad has had 80 days rest and Night Bear returns from a 53-day break, but the others have all raced in the last four weeks.

Rhythmic Intent is noted as a fast finisher and he, Ensured (now making a second handicap appearance) and Achnamara are the only runners not moving class today, as Midnight Lion last raced in a Listed hurdle and both Heathen & Valsad (yard debut for Jamie Osborne today) are dropping down from Class 2.

We then have five runners; Nolton Cross, Haku (in first-time cheekpieces), Buxted Too, Chase The Dollar and Night Bear all stepping up a level from Class 4.

As for previous successes, Ensured, Midnight Lion and Chase The Dollar have yet to win over this trip, but the latter has won here over 1m6f, whilst the other four previous course winners; Valsad, Nolton Cross, Heathen and Night Bear have all won over course and distance, as seen below in Instant Expert...

...where despite being winless in nine starts, Nolton Cross is the immediate eyecatcher and he comes here off the back of a narrow defeat. Most of the top six in the weights are proven at this going, course and trip and I suspect the winner and placers are amongst that half dozen. Five of the six are drawn in stalls 1-7 with only Nolton Cross detached from the group out in 11 of 11, but that shouldn't be an issue as there's no real discernible draw bias here...

...not that I expect one over a mile and a half. There are plenty of reasons not to win but the draw over such a trip shouldn't be one of them and nor should race tactics, according to our pace analyser...

Yes, front runners have been a bit of a target, but they're probably only one winner shy of parity with the other three running styles. On our course profile, jockey David Probert says that this is a fair track, suggesting that the better horses win more often irrespective of pace and/or draw.

Summary

If pace and draw aren't as important here as they normally are, then it's a case of finding those in form and best suited to the task. Instant Expert has led me to believe the top six in the weights is where I should focus, but Buxted Too hasn't run well for 18 months now and Valsad looks too high in the weights at just one pound lower than his last two results of 7th of 12 and last of seven. I'll discount this pair now, leaving me with just four to consider ie Nolton Cross, Rhythmic Intent, Haku and Heathen.

Of this four, there's probably not much between them. Haku narrowly beat Nolton Cross last time out, but I fancy those placings to be reversed with the latter now better off at the weights. Heathen has been running really well of late, so I suppose it's Rhythmic Intent who misses out. He did run well but that's the nearest he has got to winning in the last 27 months and whilst he could go well here again, he's the odd one out for me.

Of my final trio, there's not a great deal to choose between them, but if pushed the 11/2 offered about Nolton Cross at 5.20pm makes most sense.

 

Racing Insights, Thursday 21/12/2023

/in /by

Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 1.25 Exeter
  • 2.55 Exeter
  • 3.08 Southwell
  • 3.15 Ffos Las

I'm not particularly keen on any of those, so I'll focus on the day's highest rated race, the 4.10 Southwell, a 7-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ A/W handicap over a straight 5f on standard tapeta...

Clarendon House and Clearpoint both won last time out and the latter has won two of his last three and now makes a Southwell debut. Exalted Angel and Alligator Alley were both placed third on their last outings, but the former hasn't won any of his last 22 races! Elsewhere Fine Wine and May Sonic are winless in eight and nine races respectively.

Exalted Angel will hope that a drop in class (3rd of 10 in a Listed race LTO) is halepful towards snapping his cold spell, but Clearpoint and Bedford Flyer both step up in class, despite the latter coming home 7th of 9 last time out. He does now wear a visor for the first time, though.

Fine Wine is coming back from a three-month break here, but the remainder have all been out in the last four to six weeks. Clarendon House and Clearpoint both race at Southwell for the first time, but both have already won at least once over this trip, whilst all five of their rivals are former course and distance winners, as shown below in our feature of the day, Instant Expert...

...where Alligator Alley is the immediate eyecatcher. Fine Wine has a good set of numbers, but defeat in a couple of valuable Class 2 races prevents him having a line of green. Clarendon House and Clearpoint are both relatively inexperienced on the A/W, whilst Exalted Angel & May Sonic look a little out of their depth here, a though backed up by the place stats...

...which suggest we should focus on Clarendon House, Fine Wine, Alligator Alley and possibly Clearpoint. This quartet are drawn in stalls 1 to 4 over a straight 5 furlongs, so you wouldn't expect them to have an advantage from being drawn low to middle, other than Alligator Alley possibly having the rail to keep him straight, but let's check the stats from previous past races...

These do suggest there's little in the draw from a win perspective, but there does seem to be a small advantage being drawn low with regards to making the frame, as shown below in the stall-by-stall analysis...

...but I suspect that, as with most straight 5f sprints, pace will win the race and here at Southwell, those races above have mainly been won by those setting the pace, with those chasing often running on for a place...

...and this might be where the previously heralded Alligator Alley might run into trouble...

He'll have the rail, but there's a risk he gets cuts across by those making a quicker start.

Summary

I do like Alligator Alley here, but I'm concerned that his path might be blocked if he doesn't ping the gates and his past form suggests that he won't do that here. He still looks good for a top three finish (a handful of bookies are paying five places), but at a best price of 11/4, I can't be going E/W with him. Clearpoint is also 11/4 and he's 3 from 4 on the A/W including 2 from 2 on tapeta. He made all and ran on well tin by almost two lengths over this trip at Wolverhampton last time out and that performance looks like being the one to beat here, so it would be Clearpoint for me.

All of which leaves me with Fine Wine and Clarendon House and both of these are more than capable of making the frame. The latter could well go on to win and is reasonably well priced at 4/1. As for Fine Wine, he's far from my idea of a winner and would need some luck to make the frame based on the qualities of the other trio I've mentioned, but if one of them falters, 8/1 E/W (3 places) with bet365 might be useful.

Please Note : No column tomorrow (Thursday for Friday's racing), as I'm out on a Christmas jolly, but I'll be back with you on Friday for my last pre-Christmas post.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 12/12/2023

/in /by

The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information] and here is Tuesday's Shortlist...

...with a whole swathe of qualifiers. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...

  • 1.00 Punchestown
  • 2.52 Ffos Las
  • 3.10 Fontwell
  • 3.45 Wincanton
  • 7.00 Southwell

Two of our 'free' races feature runners from The Shortlist and the highest rated of the two is the 7.00 Southwell featuring Roarin' Success and Wild Side from above. They'll take on another half a dozen rivals in a Class 3, 3yo+ fillies A/W handicap over a left-handed mile on standard tapeta...

Our two featured runners actually raced against each other last time out at Kempton four weeks ago and here's how that one panned out...

...and with both running off the same marks here, I'd expect them to be closely matched again in a race that looks really competitive. As you can see, neither of them actually won that day, although Roarin' Success made the frame, but Achillea did win last time out and Enola Grey was a runner-up, although she now hasn't won in eleven outings, whilst Lady Mojito has lost eight on the bounce; she'll be visored for the first time here in a bid to improve her form.

None of this field actually raced at Class 3 last time out, as Wild Side, Roarin' Success, Achillea and Finery step up from Class 4 and the bottom three on the card (Hey Lyla, Lady Mojito & Enola Grey) all raced at Class 5. Yorkshire Lady's Class 2 run a month ago makes her the only class dropper here.

All bar Finery (101 days off) have had at least one outing in the last five weeks and Lady Mojito is the only runner here yet to win at this trip, whilst Finery is our sole course and distance winner.

With regards to Lady Mojito, she's bang out of form, hasn't won at the trip and is up two classes and that's enough for me to dismiss her chances here, even before we look at Instant Expert...

Now, I'm a big fan of Instant Expert, but sometimes it doesn't offer as much help as I'd like and today it just reiterates how competitive this contest could. There's no standout candidate purely on those numbers above, nor do any put themselves up for the chop. Finery seems far more experienced and has a good set of numbers to her name.

She's also our sole course and distance winner, having scored here eleven months ago from the widest draw of seven runners and she now finds herself in stall 7 of 8, which hasn't always suited runners here. In similar past contests, a draw in the middle of the stalls has been more conducive to winning here, whilst those drawn lowest make the frame most often...

...whilst our pace data from those races above says that runners racing prominently or leading are more likely to be taking some prize money home...

...and if we combined pace and draw...

...a relatively clear picture begins to form. If we then overlay this field's draw and their pace stats from their last four outings, we get an idea of how the race might pan out...

Summary

Instant Expert didn't exactly help too much today, but the pace/draw heat map suggests we should look at those drawn highest here, even if that hasn't always been successful at Southwell. Both our Shortlist runners, Wild Side & Roarin' Success are involved and although the latter looks slightly worse off than the former, she did come out best last time and off the same marks, I suspect that Roarin' Success might just hold Wild Side off, although it'll be tight again.

I actually think these will be the first two home with Finery getting towed along by them. She loves it here at Southwell and has a good record at the trip and with Hills opening up at 9/1 about her, she might be a nice E/W option. As for the two main protagonists, Roarin' Success & Wild Side, they're 3/1 and 4/1 , first and third favourites respectively.

 

 

Racing Insights, Tuesday 28/11/23

/in /by

Tuesday's free offering from the GOLD service is the The Shortlist feature, a simple – and usually brief – report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day. It covers win or place stats, and can be viewed for both today’s and tomorrow’s racing.

GREENis good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBERis quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
REDis not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation is – and has always been – that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form - and its odds - imply. As ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information!

And this how The Shortlist looks for this Tuesday...

And we do still also have our daily list of 'free' racecards, which are as follows...

  • 12.15 Sedgefield
  • 2.20 Sedgefield
  • 2.30 Tramore

Truth be told, the racing on offer in the UK for Tuesday looks dreadful at best, with the highest rated races being half a dozen Class 4 affairs including a pair of Novice races and a mares' maiden! Of the other three, two have just seven runners and as I do like to look for E/W value, I want more than seven runners, so we've landed on the 2.10 Southwell, an 8-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ handicap hurdle for conditional jockeys, where the trip is a left-handed 3m½f on heavy ground...

We've no LTO winners in the field, but the fast-finishing Steal My Sunshine has won two of his last three and only Mountain Leopard is winless in his last five, although Stratton Oakmount's run of form reading 1P12 came in Irish PTP contests. That said, it proves he stays and jumps and can carry 12 stones!

Ithaka's second run in a tongue-tie sees him drop down from Class 3 (16th of 18), whilst Glance from Clover (8th of 10) and Lelantos (7th of 12) both step up a class despite faring badly last time out and the former won't be helped by not having raced for 204 days.

Mind you, he's not the only one coming off a break, as Mountain Leopard and Our Bill's Aunt return from layoffs of 197 and 227 days respectively, with the other five runners all having had a run in the last month.

Lelantos is the sole runner to have either won here at Southwell or over a similar trip to this one and he has, in fact, won over course and distance, albeit just over two years ago off a mark 6lbs lower than today. That aside, Instant Expert suggests that none of the field have gone particularly well under today's expected conditions...

...where Lelantos probably shades it, although it's a fairly low bar and I think we're going to need to see the place data...

...where this quintet make most appeal on stats alone...

Three miles-plus on heavy ground might take some getting here at Southwell and from a small number of similar past races, we've found that leaders in 7-1o-runner contests of soft to heavy ground have often struggled to hang on to the lead...

...which, based on their most recent efforts, probably doesn't bode too well for the likes of Pure Theatre, Our Bill's Aunt and Mountain Leopard from the five I highlighted in Instant Expert...

...with those from course and distance winner Lelantos downwards looking better positioned here.

Summary

From the five runners I highlighted earlier, Stratton Oakmont and Lelantos make most appeal and I think both have a great chance of a top three finish. But, if I think Stratton Oakmont is going to be in the mix, I then need to consider Steal My Sunshine, who has a similar pace profile to Stratton and finished one place (4L) behind him last time out. Steal My Sunshine is 2lbs better off here and that should reduce the gap, making this pair more evenly matched.

It's not totally unfeasible that they're the first two home here and I think Stratton Oakmont should still just about hold Steal My Sunshine with Lelantos looking useful for a place. Elsewhere, I suspect Mountain Leopard being the biggest challenge to this trio.

No prices available at 3.15pm on Monday, but I'd be hoping for 11/2 or bigger about Stratton Oakmont and I doubt any of the other three will be long enough for me to go E/W, but you might.

 

Racing Insights, Monday 15/05/23

/in /by

The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.

This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...

  • 5.15 Wolverhampton
  • 5.25 Killarney
  • 5.40 Musselburgh
  • 6.55 Killarney
  • 8.35 Windsor
  • 8.45 Southwell

The last of these looks like the being the best on paper, at least, so let's take a look at the 8.45 Southwell, a 9-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a left-handed two miles (2m½f after rail movements) on good to soft ground that will be softer in places with more showers expected...

Of the nine runners, only handicap debutant Toronet was a winner last time out, but that was in a poor climing race in France back in February and he now also makes a UK debut here. Of his rivals, only Tarahumara, Restandbethankful and With A Start failed to make the frame on their last run and the best looking formline belongs to Sea The Clouds (1122).

He now runs in a handicap for just the second time, as does Tarahumara, who has also had wind surgery since his last run. The bottom two on the card are the only class movers today, as the 12 yr old veteran McGowans Pass drops down a level and the sole mare, bottom weight Karannelle steps up a grade after back to back narrow defeats as a runner-up last year at Newton Abbot.

The last of those Newton Abbot runs was some 258 days ago and none of her rivals have been away from the track longer. Most of the field have raced in the last month, aside from Toronet (76d), Tarahumara (93d) and Sea The Clouds (175d).

None of this group have won here at Southwell before, mind you just three of them have raced here before (once each), but all bar French import Toronet have won at a similar trip.

Toronet hasn't raced in the UK before, so he obviously has no previous Class 4 win, but all of his rivals bar McGowans Pass have won at this grade, whilst just three of the field have won on good to soft or soft ground, according to Instant Expert...

You'd have to think that the Ground conditions would be against Elham Valley, Restandbethankful and McGowans Pass with a combined 1 win from 24 and both Elham Valley and McGowans Pass have toiled at Class 4. In fact, the latter just doesn't seem well suited to the task in hand at all and age isn't on his side. We do have a fair smattering of green above, but not enough to hang a bet from. I'm hoping the place stats can guide me a little closer...

Well, there's certainly more green, isn't there? And if we eliminate all the red blocks...

...it would seem that Sea The Clouds, Tarahumara and Too Friendly should be the ones, who'd relish conditions the most.

Today's feature is, of course, the PACE tab but before we look at how this field normally approach their races, let's have a quick look at how this kind of race has panned out historically here at Southwell...

...which says that leader win far more than their fair share of races and even to just make the frame, you don't want to be too lose to the back of the field, which doesn't look like good news for Too Friendly or Karannell based on this from their last four outings...

Expect McGowans Pass to set the pace, as he virtually always does and whilst he's a regular top 3 finisher, having done so in 10 of his last 14, he hasn't actually managed to hang on for a win in any of those races! What's likely here is that he gives Sea The Clouds a tow into the race and makes a target of himself in the closing stages.

Summary

Alphabetically, I think Elham Valley, Sea The Clouds, Tarahumara and Too Friendly are the best horses in the race and that Sea The Clouds, Tarahumara and Too Friendly seem the best suited by conditions. Sea The Clouds also has the best pace profile of this shortlisted group and Too friendly looks like having too much to do from the back and if we look at the field's last few results, Sea The Clouds is the 'form' horse.

With that in mind, it would have to be Sea The Clouds for me here and 5/1 is decent enough. I'd expect the others named above to be there or thereabouts, whilst McGowans Pass might run well enough to hold on for a place, depending on what happens behind him.

 

Racing Insights, Thursday 06/04/23

/in /by

Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 1.20 Bellewstown
  • 2.25 Hereford
  • 2.30 Bellewstown
  • 4.45 Hereford
  • 7.15 Clonmel

Unfortunately for me, that list is 60% Irish, leaving me with just the two Hereford races to consider and neither of those float my boat, as one's a maiden hurdle and the other a novice handicap, so I'll pass on both of those and I'll be back tomorrow!

Only joking, of course. As a man far more talented than I, once said "The Show Must Go On!" and with that in mind, I'm going to find another race to look at. I am, of course, self-impeded by my reluctance to play the Irish game and I don't really do the Flat in April, whilst the 'best' UK races on Thursday are at Class 4. So, a non-Flat, non-novice/maiden, non-Irish, Class 4 race is where we'll head and that takes us to the 6.30 Southwell, a 12-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed mile on standard tapeta...

None of these won last time out, but Athmad was second attempting to complete a hat-trick, whilst Dubai Jeanius was also a runner-up after winning all five starts this year. Francesi and Kaaranah have been runing consistently well without quite winning.

Intervention is noted as a fast finisher here and Kingmania makes a debut for James Ferguson after leaving Chris Wall's yard. She now wears a hood for the first time, as does Kaaranah, who like Candy Warhol and Vaccine, is stepping up a class here, whilst My Silent Song is down two classes.

Our sole class dropper might, however, need the run after a break of 169 days, but he's not the only one who might be a bit race-rusty as Francesi, The Mouse King, Kingmania and Kaaranah have all been tucked away for five months or more, whereas the remaining seven have all raced in the last 7 to 37 days.

Chief's Will and Athmad are previous course and distance winners, whilst Dubai Jeanius is 4 from 4 over 1m3f/1m4f here. Intervention has won here over 6f and 7f with The Mouse King a Southwell winner at 7f on his only previous visit four starts ago (August '22). Elsewhere Francesi, Plastic Paddy, My Silent Song and Kaaranah have all won at a similar trip to this one.

Feature of the day, Instant Expert, can verify those course/distance stats and also tell us that seven of this field share twenty-three previous A/W wins on standard going, but only two of them have won at Class 4. We also see that all seven A/W winners are running off higher marks than their last win, carrying 3lbs to 8lbs more here...

The in-form pair of  Dubai Jeanius and Athmad are the two that initially catch my eye from a positive point of view, whilst my concerns are starting to build about Plastic Paddy (class) and Intervention (going/class), whilst Chief's Will hasn't set the world alight at going/distance either. It's going to be hard for me to suggest any of that trio might win this from those stats, but the place stats might suggest they could make the frame?

Again Dubai Jeanius looks strong, but Athmad's numbers haven't really improved much, suggesting he's a win or bust type, perhaps. Plastic Paddy's line looks better, but still worse than most, whilst Candy Warhol looks like he'd be better off elsewhere, although his Flat record is just as uninspiring.

The draw here at Southwell on the Tapeta suggests that those drawn highest might have a bit of extra work to do to get round and win...

...which would put Kingmania, Candy Warhol and My Silent Song in a bit of trouble, but much would depend on how they approached the race from widest out. If they run like they have in their last few outings, I'd expect Candy Warhol to set off pretty quickly with Kingmania likely to settle in at the back of the pack with the in-form Dubai Jeanius...

Chief's Will looks like being our pacesetter with a clump of five or six tracking him and if we go back to those 40-odd races above that we drew the draw data from, we're informed that anything bar a hold-up position is OK here...

...which isn't the best news for Plastic Paddy, Athmad, Dubai Jeanius or Kingmania, which presents me with a dilemma.

Summary

I think Dubai Jeanius is the best horse in the race, but having to pass most of the field later in the contest has proven difficult here at Southwell and that throws a spanner in the works for me. He's 11/2 joint second fav and that's not long enough for an E/W bet and I'm unsure he can get round the field, so I'll have to look elsewhere.

Next on my list is Athmad, who'd be a good pick for a place normally, but he's drawn high enough (almost too high in #9) and is another hold-up type and like the runner above, 5/1 isn't E/W territory for me.

Francesi, however, was in solid form prior to a five month break, is drawn low and will race prominently. His place stats at going/class/distance put him right in the mix and at 6/1, he's probably the one I'd back to win and if I wanted a pair of small speculative E/W punts, then I'd be looking at the likes of Chief's Will & Intervention at 11's and 14's respectively, especially if you can get four places, as they're still going to have to compete with Dubai Jeanius and Athmad for the places.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 28/02/23

/in /by

The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information] and here is Tuesday's Shortlist...

...where the 2.15 Catterick race might worth a second look.

As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...

  • 3.15 Catterick
  • 3.45 Catterick
  • 7.00 Southwell

As it happens, that 2.15 race only has three runners, so I'll leave that alone to focus upon the 7.00 Southwell, an 8-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed mile on standard tapeta...

Top weight Alexander James is winless in eight starts but drops two classes to run here and has already scored over course and distance, albeit on his debut almost four years ago on the old polytrack surface. Yard also runs Plastic Paddy here.

Tropez Power won over C&D three starts ago and has made the frame in each of his last two, catching the eye as a fast finisher just failing by three quarters of a length LTO.

Plastic Paddy is the only LTO winner on the field and is raised 4lbs for that win over this trip on Newcastle's Tapeta. He's a five time winner over this trip and should go well again.

Chief's Will has also won over C&D, getting home by a head two starts ago. He was raised 2lbs for that run, but still came within three quarters of a length of catching Plastic Paddy LTO. Has unfortunately been raised 2lbs in defeat, which makes life tougher here.

Soames Forsyte was a runner-up at Southwell LTO, when a head behind Chief's Will here over C&D and he's now 2lbs better off with the winner as he makes a yard debut for his third handler inside a year. He's up in class today and wears a hood for the first time, as he hopes to finally get off the mark at the seventh time of asking.

Candy Warhol makes a handicap debut here just four days after finishing fourth of eight at Wolverhampton, having weakened late on after being headed after 7f. He makes a course debut here and isn't leniently treated off 74.

Mykonos St John is Candy Warhol's stablemate and he also ran just four days ago when last home of nine in a sixteenth successive defeat since winning here over 7f just over a year ago. He's now 4lbs lower than that win, but recent form is appalling (14/15, 7/9, 6/7, 14/14, 9/9) and provides no inspiration.

Bottom weight Local Bay, however, has been going really well, winning here at Southwell in back to back Class 6, 7f handicaps earlier this month, before stepping up a class to run 2nd of 11 (beaten by a head) at Wolverhampton four days ago. He's up in class again, but has been eased a pound by the assessor and whilst this is the toughest race to date, he really is in good nick and has won over this trip on Newcastle's tapeta.

So, we've five course winners and six distance winners, but Instant Expert can tell us more about going, class and weight...

Tropez Power is the clear eye-catcher here with a full line of green with Local Bay looking decent too and I've no real issues with any of them on the going, the two reds are from just two outings each. The field doesn't initially looked to have done too well at Class 4 on the A/W, but Tropez Power is 2 from 5, which is good and aside from Plastic Paddy, who I'll come to shortly, the other six runners have only had ten Class 4 runs, so it's probably too early to say they're all not good enough!

As for Plastic Paddy, yes he's only 1 from 9 at this grade, but his win was last time out and he has made the frame in three of the nine. He also has the worst record here at Southwell but that just strikes me as quirky with him having three wins three further places from eleven tapeta runs including his 0/4 here. It's surely only a matter of time before the penny drops. Trip-wise, Chief's Will is the odd one out with just one win from seven, but that win was here over C&D two starts ago and he was only narrowly defeated LTO.

The tapeta surface here at Southwell is still relatively new, so we don't have hundreds of races worth of data to fall back upon, but what 2022 and 2023 have shown us in terms of draw and pace is...

...that although it's looks like a high draw is most advantageous, you'd probably want to be in the 3 to 7 middle section, but the bias isn't massive at all. You can understand stalls 1 and 2 being slightly worse off with a tight left hand bend, but the emphasis here is on pace/race tactics...

...where it pays to get out quickly and stay out. Leaders win almost as often as mid-division runners and hold-up horses combined, whilst prominent runners make the frame most often. It might be a simple inference, but perhaps it's a case of leaders winning and those chasing staying close to them and filling the places? As for the pace/draw combinations, mid-drawn leaders who can almost cut across the bend fare considerably better than the others...

We can then refer back to our race draw and the fields most recent outings via our pace tab...

As the pace of the race seems to carry more weight than the draw, I'm going to make this a five-horse race, omitting Tropez Power, Soames Forsyte and Mykonos St John. I do like Tropez Power , as he is a decent sort and will win races, but he's up in weight after a defeat and is likely to be one of the back makers, so I've reluctantly ruled him out. Of the remaining five, Alexander James is winless in sixteen and Candy Warhol looks up against it off an opening mark of 74 after four modest outings.

Summary

The three I like best of the field here are Plastic Paddy, Chief's Will and Local Bay. The first two on that list were only separated by 0.75 lengths recently and with Chief's Will better off at the weights now, slightly better drawn and more likely to lead, there's every chance of him reversing those placings. Local Bay is in great form too and should get a good tow into the race from Chief's Will on his immediate inside and we good have a cracking, tight contest.

Any of the three could well win and if pushed, I'd possibly side with Local Bay at 4/1. Plastic Paddy is 7/2 but Chief's Will might have been underestimated by a 6/1 ticket. Sadly that's not long enough for me as an E/W bet and I can't seem to shake off the thought of Tropez Power defying the pace/draw to get up late on.

Racing Insights, Thursday 26/01/23

/in /by

Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 1.00 Southwell
  • 1.35 Southwell
  • 2.15 Gowran Park
  • 4.10 Wincanton

..from which I'm going to look at the 1.35 Southwell, a 7-runner, Class 3, 3yo A/W handicap over a left handed mile on standard tapeta...

...which is likely, to all intents and purposes, to develop into a 4-horse race between the top four on the card.

They're the 'form' horses here with Brave Emperor winning his last three, Gincident his last two and Dagmar Run/Mohatu following up wins with runner-up finishes. That said, Naomi's Charm won two starts ago and Look back Smiling has made the frame in each of his last two, making Shot of Love the weakest on form.

All seven are up at least one class from LTO with Gincident, Shot Of Love and Look Back Smiling up two levels, whilst Shot of Love joins the top three on the card in having just a second handicap run. Mohatu and Gincident have both won over a mile, but Naomi's Charm is a course and distance winner.

Brave Emperor completed his hat-trick almost 11 weeks now, but the rest of the field have been away for less than three weeks.

The above says 1 course winner (C&D), 3 distance winners and Instant Expert says (overall) four winners on standard going and one at Class 3...

...and despite the lack of data, Brave Emperor would be the standout here with Naomi's Charm let down by her 1/4 on standard going. Mind you, she's 0/3 on std-slow! As on previous occasions that I've covered Southwell for this piece, we have to have the new track caveat ie we don't have masses of pace/draw data for the new surface, but we'll do our best with what we do have, starting with the draw...

There's not a lot in it from such a small sample size, but if pushed I'd probably want to be in stalls 3-6 to give me the best chance of making the frame, which only really benefits Dagmar Run from our 'favoured four', whilst the pace stats from those races, as is often the case here, tend to favour those racing furthest forward...

and when we look at how this field has raced recently...

...I'd guess that Naomi's Charm and Brave Emperor will set the pace with Mohatu having to pass runners to get involved.

Summary

There's not much to talk about from the above, sadly, but I think the best horses get their own way in these small fields and that it really becomes a test of who is best on the day. I stick with the assertion that the top four on the card get home first and based on the evidence (or lack of!) above, then the 3/1 2nd fav Brave Emperor would be the one to beat.  Mohatu looks plenty short at 7/4 if he runs from a hold-up position, but should have enough to make the frame.

If either of two fail to fire, then I've a slight preference for Dagmar Run at 5's over Gincident at 7/2 with the latter up two classes. Could be a decent little race, this one.

Roving Reports: The Rover Returns to Rolleston

/in /by

When Matt was kind enough to ask me to write these articles last year, we couldn't think of a name we could file them all under. Until Matt came up with "Roving Reports", that is, which seemed to fit the bill nicely. I rove around, I report on what I've seen and done. Easy.

I've decided that works fine in the summer, but the cold snap means this is most definitely an un-roving report, coming mainly as it does from my runs to Southwell and back this January. That's not my fault, of course. Plan A was to go to Lingfield for the Winter Million last weekend and take in Ascot on the Saturday for the Clarence House. That went west pretty quickly, and so Plan B was to go to Revesby Point-to-Point, near Boston in Lincolnshire, on the Saturday, drive to Hunstanton after and do Fakenham on the Sunday.

That plan looked quite a rosy one. There were no problems at Revesby, I was informed, and videos coming from the track of the clerk's stick going easily in to the turf and of the race cards being printed off all looked most promising.

Indeed, so confident was I of it going ahead that, when offered 4-5 about the fixture being on by David Johnson at Southwell one day last week I immediately shoved two £20 notes in his hand. By Friday morning he knew he'd done his money; by Friday afternoon he had my forty quid safely in his pocket after an inspection at the track revealed a small shaded area where the frost hadn't come out, and it was off. Another twenty minutes after that Fakenham's Sunday card bit the dust. £40 worse off and now with nowhere to go. The good lady suggested Saturday might be a good time to go buy a new sofa, which we badly need. We did, and I'm now considerably worse off than the forty notes I lost to Dave, although I can at least look forward to sitting down and not getting a broken spring up my backside.

So it's been Southwell that's kept the show on the road for me this month and, as ever, I've worked all the fixtures for Rob and the S&D firm. The attendance at these fixtures has been like chalk and cheese. The afternoon fixtures haven't been so bad, and there are enough punters around, albeit usually to small to medium money, to make it worthwhile. The night fixtures are a different animal, though. Last Wednesday (the 18th) was about as bad as it got. An initial small crowd dwindled as the evening went on, and I didn't strike a single bet for the last two races. In total I took 28 bets on my joint for the whole evening. 27 of those bets were small bets, and one was a bet of £1000 each way on one that was unplaced, giving me an average bet size for the night of £86. This, as I've said before, is the problem as a bookmaker at these meetings, there's not enough money to work around a big bet when you take one, so you just lay a bit off and get the prayer mat out. On this occasion, they were answered, but we aren't always so lucky.

However, the night before, the Tuesday, was incredible. Again a smallish crowd but the money was flying around thanks to about half a dozen punters who turned up out of the blue and just fancied having a go. They all wanted The Tron each-way in the second, and did no damage as it came second, but the fourth race was one of the liveliest heats I've seen in a while. First the money came for the winner, Nolton Cross, with a £100 and then a £200 bet in early, then they couldn't get enough of Blow Your Horn, with a £1000, a £400 and three £200 bets all taken. Rob can't keep pace. "Stop laying it!!" he yells across the ring at me. I remind him after I'm just the slave pitch and not the one controlling the price of it...

Anyway, it never looks like winning and despite laying the winner twice, we get out of jail on the race. Not often you lay £300 worth of bets on an 11-2 winner and call it a good result, but there we go. A trip to the paddock for the novice, up next, reveals the 4-11 jolly isn't anything to be frightened of, and that gets a good striping which is just as well, as we get that beat too. The punters have one last crack at getting it back on the short-priced Walking On Clouds in the next and when that's sunk, so are they. It's been a good night for the books, less so if you're on the other side of the fence.

Sensibly, we only bet the last ten minutes for the night meetings at Southwell. By that I mean if the race is off at 7pm, say, we won't go up with prices until 6.50pm. There's simply not enough people around to justify standing about for half an hour between each race, and this enables us to have a cup of tea, a loo break, and a chat about the next and what we fancy. This can result in some dangerous talk - see earlier about me losing £40 to Dave in an idle moment - but mostly it's all good-natured banter about how well/badly the evening is going. It's also about what flavour the tea-bar soup is, with tomato-and-something usually favourite, although curried parsnip is a shorter price with each passing fixture. I think we've had it five times in January already, and there's still a week to go.

Tonight, as I write this (Tuesday) we've another evening meeting. Sellers at 40 regarding how many bets I take could well be in clover come half eight.

Look, Cheltenham are, and I quote, "fairly hopeful" of racing on Saturday. So I'll see you all there, yes? If it's off, we might be looking for some chairs to go with the sofa...

- David Massey

Racing Insights, Tuesday 24/01/23

/in /by

Tuesday's free offering from the GOLD service is the The Shortlist feature, a simple – and usually brief – report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day. It covers win or place stats, and can be viewed for both today’s and tomorrow’s racing.

GREENis good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBERis quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
REDis not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation is – and has always been – that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form - and its odds - imply. As ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information!

Sadly due to postponement of so much racing, there are no qualifiers this Tuesday. We do still, however, have our daily list of 'free' racecards, but that has also been badly affected...

  • 12.40 Down Royal
  • 1.00 Exeter
  • 1.25 Leicester
  • 6.00 Southwell

...leaving us with a 20-runner maiden hurdle and an A/W maiden! Neither appeal to me to be honest and with just one mainland UK meeting set to go ahead, I'll swerve the maiden and take a look what should be the best on the card, the 7.00 Southwell. It's a competitive-looking, 7-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a straight 5f on standard tapeta...

My initial thoughts were that it's a 3-horse race between (in card order) Vespasian, Hiya Maite and Kim Wexler, but let's see what we can find.

Vespasian won five starts ago and has made the frame in his last two starts without winning, but Hiya Maite, Kim Wexler and Murbih all have a win and a runner-up finish from their last two with Kim Wexler our only LTO winner. All of that trio step up in class today with the latter pair (Kim Wexler and Murbih) up two classes and Hiya Maite up one.

The top three on the card are winless in 11, 10 and 7 races respectively, but Tolstoy drops in class here and has been noted as a fast finisher. All bar Strong Johnson have raced in the last four weeks, but he has been off for just over 15 weeks, during which he has moved yards and had a wind operation. Aside from the bottom three on the card who are all course and distance winners, he's the only other to have won at this 5f trip and none of the top four on the card have won at Southwell.

Strong Johnson is also the only one yet to win on the A/W, he's one of four previous Class 3 winners and one of two never to have raced here at Southwell before, according to Instant Expert...

...whilst those numbers filtered into A/W runs only look like this...

Murbih is the interesting one to emerge from Instant Expert and he's in decent form as noted at the top of the piece. He has made the frame in half of his 10 A/W starts, winning twice overall and finishing 30312 in five visits here. he receives weight all round and is currently making more appeal to me than Vespasian.

Southwell's tapeta is still fairly 'new' and as such we don't have as much pace/draw data as we do for other tracks, but what little we do have on the draw surprised me a little initially...

Stall by stall analysis doesn't reflect such a great high to low bias, though...

And that's reassuring to me, as I believe there shouldn't really be much in the draw over a straight 5f and that it's the way you approach the race that is key. Most (not all) 5f sprints favour those setting the pace and in that small sample above it has certainly been the case...

...and the resultant pace/draw heat map suggests that mid to highly-drawn leaders have the best chance...

*the high draw mid-div 100% record is from 1 horse

So, let's check the field's most recent outing to try to work out who might set the pace...

...and it certainly looks like they'll be hard at it from the start.

Kim Wexler & Strong Johnson are in stalls 3 & 4 with Murbih in 5 and Vespasian widest in 7. Vespasian probably edges it here, but other aspects of the toolkit analysis suggest Murbih would be a better bet of the two.

Summary

I started out with Vespasian, Hiya Maite and Kim Wexler uppermost in my mind, but I've arrived at a point here I think Murbih would be a better option than Vespasian. This means That I'm going to rule both out, because I don't think Murbih beats Kim Wexler. They were first and second home here over course and distance with Kim Wexler prevailing by a length and a half off equal weights. Murbih has been raised a pound for that run and KW is up 5lbs but now has an in-form 5lb claimer in the saddle, so I think the race's only mare still holds Murbih.

So that's Kim Wexler in my top 2 along with Hiya Maite, who is also in good form, only up one class as opposed to KW's two, he scored well on Instant Expert and is drawn high. The only possible issues are that he's 7lbs higher than his win two starts ago and that he might struggle for position with at least three or four getting first run on him.

Should be an interesting tussle, but I think 5/1 about Kim Wexler is a tidy price. Murbih is 15/2 with bet365 and they're paying three places, so he could be worth considering from an E/W perspective.