Stat of the Day, 31st August 2020

Saturday's pick was...

4.40 Redcar : Sambucca Spirit @ 11/4 BOG 2nd at 5/1 (Pressed leader, ridden to lead 2f out, headed entering final furlong, kept on but no chance with winner) 

Monday's pick runs in the...

12.00 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Cape Greco @ 8/1 BOG

Your first 30 days for just £1

...in a 12-runner, Class 6, A/w Handicap for 3yo+ over 6f on Fibresand worth £2,782 to the winner...

Why?...

More on this shortly, of course...

In a poor-looking race, I've hopefully grabbed us some value with a 5 yr old gelding whose form line looks the most promising of the 12 runners here today. Half of them have never won, only two including our pick have won within their last five starts and with three wins and four other top 3 finishes from his last ten starts (all on A/W), our selection clearly brings the best recent form to the table.

Those 10 runs include three wins on standard going, three wins going left handed, a win and a runner-up from two here at Southwell including a win on his only effort at course and distance. That C&D win was just three starts ago and he's only 2lbs higher here today.

The C5 icon on the racecard and the highlighting of my own Sthl AW angle suggest Gay Kelleway has done well at this track of late, so let's take a quick look at the evidence. Initially we can see that simply backing all Gay's runners here since the start of 2018 has been a profitable venture at...

...with a near 23% strike rate, an ROI at Betfair SP of over 45% and an A/E just shy of 1.25 all ticking lots of boxes for me. The average win odds suggests she's not relying on favourites or shorties to bring home the bacon, which also works for us today.

Now, based on the horse's record above and these trainer stats, I'd be happy to hang my bet upon those numbers, especially at the odds we've secured, but SotD wouldn't be SotD if I didn't at least attempt a deeper dig at the stats, would it?

So, here goes, of that 14/61 record here on the A/W at Southwell, Gay Kelleway is...

  • 14 from 54 (25.9%) for 34.79pts (+64.4%) with male runners
  • 13/48 (27.1%) for 11.57pts (+24.9%) at Class 5/6
  • 13/43 (30.2%) for 43.12pts (+100.3%) at 1-30 dslr
  • 13/42 (31%) for 17.97pts (+42.8%) at odds of 8/1 and shorter
  • 12/50 (24%) for 33.92pts (+67.8%) in handicaps
  • and 7/25 (28%) for 40.27pts (+161.1%) in fields of 8-12 runners...

...whilst Class 5/6 males sent off at 8/1 and shorter in handicaps within thirty days of their last run are 11 from 20 (55% SR) for 35.1pts (+175.5% ROI), from which they are 5/7 (71.4%) for 27.25pts (+389.3%) in fields of 8-12 runners...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Cape Greco @ 8/1 BOG as was available at 8.05am Monday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 12.00 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

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