Tag Archive for: trainer Stats report

Racing Insights, Wednesday 15/11/23

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 1.30 Bangor
  • 5.30 Kempton
  • 5.50 Newcastle
  • 7.30 Kempton
  • 8.00 Kempton

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have generated the following quartet of runners for me to consider...

30-day form...

course 1-year form...

And from all the races above, I'm going to look at the 7.30 Kempton, as it's on the free list and has a runner from the daily free feature in the shape of James Fanshawe's Royal Scandal. The race itself is a 14-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ A/W handicap over a right-handed 1m4f on standard to slow polytrack...

Cardano is the only LTO winner in this field, but Capital Theory, Enthrallment and Haku all had top three finishes. Most of the field have won at least one of their last seven outings, but Graphite, Enthrallment and Kenzai Warrior have lost their last 9, 8 and 15 races respectively.

The latter's cause won't be helped by stepping up a class here, as do Enthrallment and Haku with Cardano and Buxted Too both up two grades, whilst Savvy Knight, Batemans Bay, Capital Theory and Geremia all drop down a level with Batemans Bay running in a handicap for just the second time, as does Adrian; Kenzai Warrior wears cheekpieces for the second time.

Adrian, Cardano, Graphite, Dark Moon Rising and Geremia have all won over this trip elsewhere, whilst the latter has scored here over two miles. Kenzai Warrior has also won here and that was over a mile, whilst Savvy Knight, Buxted Too, Royal Scandal and Haku are all former course and distance winners, as highlighted by Instant Expert...

...where featured runner Royal Scandal is the immediate eyecatcher, albeit of a small sample size. Buxted Too and Haku have good records at this type of trip, but Savvy Knight and Capital Theory share just 1 win from 14 attempts, however the latter has made the frame in 5 of his 7 defeats...

...and he (Capital Theory) looks to be a strong contender for the frame on the above evidence, as do Geremia and Haku. This trio will set off from opposite ends of the stalls, though with Capital Theory drawn in 1 and the other pair out in 9 & 11 but our Draw Analyser says that the draw shouldn't be the reason for a horse losing this race...

...with any advantage gained only being slight. This is pretty logical, I'd have thought with a mile and a half to run, the draw really shouldn't be an issue. The key here at Kempton over this type of trip is not to leave yourself too much to do, as the Pace Analyser says that hold-up horses fare worse than any others...

...which, based on the field's last three outings doesn't represent great news for the likes of Graphite, Dark Moon Rising, Batemans Bay and Geremia...

...but it looks like Capital Theory and Adrian will be amongst the early pacemakers.

Royal Scandal, Capital Theory, Geremia and Haku were the ones that stood out for me from Instant Expert, but only Capital Theory and Haku look like having decent enough pace profiles to do well here from that quartet. I'd add Adrian, Savvy Knight and Enthrallment into the mix on pace too, to give me a shortlist of five to consider here.

Summary

I've left myself with five to look at and two of them : Capital Theory (5/1), Royal Scandal (6/1) and Savvy Knight (13/2) are in the trio at the top end of the market, along with our featured runner. Of the three, I like Capital Theory the best, but I think 5/1 is too short here and the other pair aren't long enough for my liingto back E/W.

So, that brings me to Enthrallment, Haku and Adrian and of this trio, it's Enthrallment who interests me most as an E/W option at 17/2 with Hills who pay four places. He was a runner-up last time out beaten by less than a length but well clear of the pack and a similar run puts him in the frame again.

Adrian is a rank outsider with plenty to prove, but Haku could go well here. A former course and distance winner who looks in decent nick and was third over C&D off a pound higher last time out. He's currently available at 10/1 with Hills (4 places) and could also be a reasonable E/W bet.

Racing Insights, Wednesday 08/11/23

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 1.05 Musselburgh
  • 2.15 Musselburgh
  • 3.10 Dundalk
  • 4.25 Chepstow
  • 6.30 Kempton

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have generated the following pair of runners for me to consider...

30-day form...

Course 1-year form...

The TS report races and the free list both include a Class 2 contest, which is as good as it gets in the UK this Wednesday and we're going to focus on the race featuring James Fanshawe's 6 yr old gelding Fresh, as his race is easily the most valuable of the day at over £41k to the winner. The race, of course, is the 7.00 Kempton, a 12-runner, Class 2, 3yo+, A/W handicap over a right-handed 6f on standard to slow polytrack...

Clearpoint was the only one of these to win last time out, but he's up two classes here. And although beaten on their latest outings, Prop Forward, Fivethousandtoone, Aramis Grey and Baldomero all had top-three finishes, but the latter is now up a class, as are the fast-finishing May Sonic, yard debutant Danger Alert, Justcallmepete, Watchya and Admiral D.

Fresh, May Sonic, Watchya, Baldomero and Admiral D are all without a win in at least seven races, having actually lost 9, 7, 7, 19 & 16 respectively on the bounce! Dubai Station is another making a yard debut here and featured horse Fresh will wear cheekpieces for the first time.

Four of this field raced just a week ago here over this course and distance at a class lower than this and here's how they finished in 3rd, 5th, 6th and 7th in a 9-runner field won by another James Fanshawe horse...

Four others have raced in the last 23-39 days, but the final four may well need the run, as Dubai Station & Danger Alert return from 4 month breaks; Prop Forward has been off for six months and it's nine months since Fivethousandtoone was last seen

Baldomero is the only runner in the field yet to score over 6f, but he has at least won here at Kempton, albeit 20 races ago when landing a Class 2, 1m2f handicap just over 20 months ago. Six others have also been successful at this track with Prop Forward, Fresh, May Sonic, Danger Alert, Aramis Grey and Clearpoint all former course and distance winners and those wins are included in the following data from Instant Expert...

...where I have immediate concerns about Baldomero (going/class), Aramis Grey (class) and Fresh (trip). Fresh is also showing at 18lbs higher than his last A/W win, which would be a major issue, but that is tempered somewhat by the fact that his last win was off 91 on the Flat at Ascot, he's still 6lbs above that, of course and not in the best of form, but 6lbs is far better than 18lbs.

Despite his poor return at Class 2 on the A/W, Aramis Grey looks like being one of the best suited here behind May Sonic and the obvious pick, Prop Forward. His 1 from 8 at this grade might well contain a number of near misses, so let's check the place stats...

...which say he has made the frame in six of his seven Class 2 defeats and he's a real contender now. Prop Forward's 100% record across the line is impressive and both Fivethousandtoone and Baldomero have great numbers, but May Sonic now looks like a win or bust merchant.

Our Draw Analyser suggests a distinctive advantage to being placed in the lowest third of the draw for both win and place perspectives...

...which will be welcomed by connections of Justcallmepete, Dubai Station, May Sonic and Admiral D, but as we all know by now, getting a 'plum' draw is only half of the battle in these sprint contests and we really shouldn't underplay the pace/tactics side of the equation. Using those same 220+ races as above, our Pace Analyser says that as with many sprints, pace wins the race with leaders winning/placing far more often (percentage-wise) than the rest of the field...

In fact, the 290 leaders make up just 11.54% of the total runners, but account for 27.68% of the winners and 20.24% of the placer, but the interesting thing is that almost 46% of leaders who make the frame then go on to win. If we then look at how this field have raced in their three most recent outings, then it looks like another tick in the box for Instant Expert stand-out Prop Forward...

...and if we arrange the field into draw order and impose them onto the pace/draw heatmap...

...I'd suggest that Prop Forward beats Justcallmepete, Dubai Station, May Sonic and Admiral D to the bend and will get to cut across the apex and lead the way home with the rail at this disposal.

Summary

After looking at Instant Expert and the pace/draw combinations, it's difficult to envisage Prop Forward not being the one to beat. His A/W record reads 1131 with the last two being over this class, course and distance and whilst he's not been seen for six months, it's worth noting those last two A/W runs (over class, C&D) saw him third of eleven after 213 days off and he then won a 12-runner affair 251 days later on his next appearance, so this lay-off doesn't worry me.

We're not getting rich or upsetting the applecart by backing a 10/3 (Hills at 4.50pm) favourite, but Prop Forward looks the most likely to succeed in my eyes.

I like the look of Aramis Grey, but he's going to have to fly late on to get involved from the back, so if I was to look for a longer-priced E/W punt, then I think that the fast finishing May Sonic might be the one at 12/1 (Bet365, 4 places), whilst you could also make cases for both Baldomero (11/1 PP, 4 places) and Watchya (20/1 PP, 4 places) if they get away smartly from wider draws, as they should be able to cut across the runners in stalls 5 to 8 to give chase to Prop Forward.

Racing Insights, Wednesday 05/07/23

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Apologies for the later than usual posting of the daily column, but I've been away all day on a training course and didn't get home until after 9pm!

But the show must go on and with that in mind, Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature is the Trainer Statistics (TS) report which is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 4.35 Tipperary
  • 4.42 Musselburgh
  • 7.00 Bath
  • 7.35 Bath
  • 7.45 Tipperary

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have generated quite a few runners to consider...

...and with Ben Pauling's horses not only being in fine form of late, but also having a good course record over the past year, it seems right to look at his two runners above. Mole Court looks the standout runner in a mediocre Class 5 chase and is already priced accordingly (as low as 13/8), so let's focus on stablemate Gentleman Valley who goes an hour in a better looking looking contest. The 4.23 Worcester is a 7-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a left handed 2m7f on good ground, although a 141 yard rail movement takes it beyond 2m7½f (2m7.64f to be more precise!)...

Not only is our featured horse, Gentleman Valley the only LTO winner, he actually comes here on a hat-trick after wins at Warwick and Market Rasen in the last seven weeks or so, but he's now up a class, as are Go Chique, Mr Tambourine Man and bottom weight Court Master.

Go Chique was a runner-up LTO and has won two of her last four and Mr Tambourine Man is two from five, but Irish Prophecy, Polish and Nevilles Cross are winless in seven, ten and seven races respectively, inlcuding several incomplete runs.

Mr Tambourine Man races for the first time since wind surgery and Nevilles Cross wears a first-time visor, whilst the sole mare in the race, Go Chique hasn't raced in over seven months and might well need the run.

None of these have won here at Worcester before and although the card says five of them have won at a similar trip, Instant Expert says only three have won over hurdles at this kind of distance...

...and Gentleman Valley looks the best of a fairly poor set of numbers. Polish's 0 from 6 at the trip raises immediate questions, of course and further analysis shows that he has only made the frame in one of the six races...

In fairness, off a small sample size of races, most of these look like they'd be well suited/placed to make the frame, but you'd still have to say that Gentleman Valley was the one to beat so far on both recent form and overall form as above.

We've no draw to worry about of course, so let's move swiftly on to the pace data for similar past races and our Pace Analyser is fairly clear about what type of horse would go well here...

Prominent horses and leaders make the frame most often and half of those placers then go on to win, so ideally we'll be picking a horse in the upper reaches of the following pace profiles, based on the field's most recent outings...

Feature horse Gentleman Valley sits at mid-point and would be advised to run prominently like he did last out, but there could quite well be some early pace on and that might be too much for Go Chique after a lengthy lay-off.

Summary

Based on the above, it's the featured horse Gentleman Valley for me. He isn't quite as high on the pace chart as I'd like, but did win from a prominent position last time out. He's in great recent form and scored well on Instant Expert and his yard are in good nick and have done well here at Worcester over the last year. Fortunately me going to post around 5 or 6 hours later than usual hasn't affected the price, he opened at 5/2 and that's still available and also the price I think he should be.

As for next best, I'm not sure about the fav Polish at 9/4 from a hold-up position, so maybe Go Chique might hang on for a place.

Racing Insights, Wednesday 14/06/23

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 3.40 Newton Abbot
  • 4.10 Newton Abbot
  • 4.50 Haydock
  • 5.00 Yarmouth
  • 8.30 Limerick

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have highlighted the following...

...and the first of the two jumps contests looks the best on paper of all the featured races, so we're off to Devon for the 3.40 Newton Abbot, a 7-runner, Class 2, 5yo+ handicap chase over a left-handed 2m½f on good ground that will be quicker in places...

Top weight Light n Strike and bottom weight Elios D'or both won last time out, Clear The Runway has won five of his last six, but Geronimo's apparent good run of results all came in 2 and 3-runner races! Kauto The King won this race last year and won again next time out, but hasn't won any of seven since.

Geronimo is up a level here, as is Elios D'or and whilst it looks like Noahthirtytwored is up three classes here, that's from an A/W outing, but he's still up two grades here, as is Kauto the King, whilst Magic Saint really is up three classes.

Last year's winner Kauto The King wears cheekpieces for the first-time and it's a debut in blinkers for Magic Saint today in a field where all seven have already won over a similar trip and Noahthirtytwored joins Kauto The King as a course and distance winner.

Most of these have raced in the last three weeks, but it's five weeks rest for Geronimo which shouldn't be an issue, but Clear The Runway might well need the run on his first outing for almost eight months.

Instant Expert's NH stats say that all bar one have already won a chase on similar going to today and that four of the field are previous Class 2 chase winners...

...and this points towards Light n Strike, Clear The Runway, Geronimo and Kauto The King has being best suited to the task, whilst the place stats bring Elios D'or into the equation...

I wouldn't rule any of them out just on those two graphics, but I want to look at a couple of interesting weight differences. Magic Saint did indeed win a Class 2 handicap chase off 152 at Cheltenham back in November 2020 and was plying his trade at Gr 3 until Jan '22 before he went hunter chasing this year. He did win off 137 in March, so is still technically 10lbs below his last win. As for Noahthirtytwored, he did win relatively recently off 109 and the subsequent 13lb rise seems excessive.

Kauto The King won this last year and the report of the race reads..."raced in 3rd, awkward and pushed along after 9th, went 2nd 4 out, ridden before 2 out, led last, driven out to win by 1.5 lengths"... which is pretty congruent with what our Pace Analysis suggests...

Those racing furthest forward have the best chances of winning/placing and those chances diminish more the further down the field you position yourself, which might not be the best news for the likes of Noahthirtytwored...

...although he did lead last time out.

Summary

If truth be told, there's no real standout performer here and it might well be a process of elimination.

From the racecard, I've doubts about Magic Saint, Noahthirtytwored and Kauto the King stepping up two classes or more after defeats. Clear The Runway might need a run and was well beaten last time out. Geronimo's better runs have come in really small fields and Kauto The King is winless in seven.

Instant Expert wasn't great for Magic Saint, Noahthirtytwored and Elios D'or as potential winners, although the latter has good place numbers. Noahthirtytwored also seemed up against it on weight, but Magic Saint has won off far higher marks than this one.

And when it came to pace, none of them are out and out hold up types, so I wouldn't actually be too concerned about any of them from that perspective.

Now I've written the above, the only one I've no real qualms with looks like top weight and LTO winner Light n Strike, which is probably why he's the 5/2 favourite here. The others with fewer red marks by their names on my jotter are Geronimo and Elios D'Or and one of those pair might well make the frame too. The former will be more attractively priced, of course, but the latter is a regular placer. Elsewhere, Magic Saint would be a huge danger if running to the levels he's capable of, but something just doesn't seem right with him.

Racing Insights, Wednesday 07/06/23

/in /by

Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 2.00 Newbury
  • 2.35 Newbury
  • 4.00 Nottingham
  • 6.30 Curragh
  • 7.10 Ripon
  • 8.00 Curragh

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have highlighted the following...

The best of the free/TS report races seems to be the one featuring William Haggas' Ecucator on the All-Weather and whilst the field is a bit bigger than I'm generally comfortable with, there's always the prospect of a decent E/W bet with most bookies paying 4 places (Sky go 5, of course!) in the 8.25 Kempton, a 14-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a right-handed 1m4f on standard to slow polytrack...

Second Slip is our only LTO winner, but he hasn't raced in over 21months and might be a little rusty here, as might Winterwatch, Enthrallment, Graphite and Moving Lights after respective breaks of 231, 244, 247 and 312 days, as they take on nine others who have all been seen in the last six weeks.

Form-wise, Educator, Tashi, Winterwatch, Enthrallment and Dal Mallart all made the frame on their last outing, whilst of the 14-strong field only Savvy Knight and Tashi are winless in seven (or 11 in Tashi's case!)

Ten of the field ran at this level when last seen with Dal Mallart stepping up from Class 4 and top-weight Stay Well, Moving Light and Celtic Art all coming down from Class 2. Second Slip had wind surgery during his long lay-off and now ears a tongue-tie for the first time and this will be Enthrallment's first run for Kevin de Foy after leaving Ireland and Dermot Weld behind.

Winterwatch has won here over two miles (on his last A/W run) and over this trip at Catterick, whilst Second Slip, Graphite Savvy Knight, Celtic Art and Neandra also have 1m4f successes under their belts, whilst our two other former course winners, Stay Well and Moving Light have both scored here over track & trip.

Instant Expert then adds to those stats by showing that nine have already raced on standard to slow surfaces, producing wins for four of them and we also have six Class 3 winners on Flat/AW...

The top two on the card are the ones initially catching the eye here, but Winterwatch's two going wins is interesting too and I suspect we'll learn more from the place data...

...from which, I think I want to focus on...

I'm aware that such a brutal cut early on might have cost me the winner or a placer, but in these bigger fields, I only really want horses with relevant past form. This six are spread across the track in stalls 2, 3, 4, 8, 10 & 12 on a track/trip with no huge discernible draw bias...

...although some of the lower drawn horses have fared best...

...which would be better news for Stay Well than it would be for say, Winterwatch.  And as regard for pace, there's very little between the six based on their last four outings...

.and with the whole field's pace scores looking like this...

...we're likely to get a falsely-run race over a course and distance where those brave enough to take it on have done well in the past...

Summary

I pick these races 'blind' and do the analysis as I go along, so I never know where we're going to end up and here we've ended up in the state of inconclusive!  The only LTO winner hasn't run for ages and most of these have a fairly recent win. Instant Expert gave me a shortlist of six based on place form and pace/draw didn't really help us at, so in these cases, you either walk away (smart move) or you use that unquantifiable extra factor : 'gut feeling'

My gut feeling tells me that I want to be with Stay Well and Winterwatch depending on price and that Moving Light from the Shortlist might go off and set the pace and hope to hold on for a top four finish. I'll be back later (just after 3pm now)when there are some odds to look at.

Now approaching 4.30pm and we've got odds from Hills, who have installed Stay Well as the 9/2 favourite and whilst I think he could be the one, I'm not really interested at that price. Winterwatch and Moving Light, however, are at 9's and 12's respectively and could be the E/W play(s) here.

Educator from the TS report is 2nd fav, but has never raced on the A/W, so 11/2 is a bit short there for me, but 8/1 is interesting about the LTO winner Second Slip. Yeah, he's been away for a good while, but his A/W form reads 3121 so he could be another candidate for the frame.

This race could get very interesting in the closing stages, but it's not one to hang your hat (or your wallet!) on.

Racing Insights, Wednesday 24/05/23

/in /by

Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 2.10 Warwick
  • 2.20 Ayr
  • 3.40 Yarmouth
  • 4.50 Warwick
  • 7.20 Southwell

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have only generated runners based on short-term trainer form for me to consider...

...and of the five 'free' races and the three TS report races, Glorious Zoff runs in the highest rated, the 3.50 Warwick, a 12-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a left-handed two miles on good ground...

Disappointingly for a twelve-runner Class 3 field, only bottom weight Izayte won last time out, but Sea The Clouds has two wins and two runner-up finishes from his last four outings. Chaos Control won two starts ago, Postmark won three back and Hurricane Ali ago. The other seven runners are winless in five or more runs.

Only four of these raced at this level last time with plenty moving class here. Hurricane Ail & Chaos Control are both down two classes after runs at Class 1 (hcp) and Grade 1 respectively, whilst Glorious Zoff drops down from Class 2. We also have five runners stepping up from Class 4; Mascat, Sea The Clouds, Coolnaugh Haze, Postmark and Izayte.

Glorious Zoff runs for the first time since wind surgery and it's handicap debut day for both Chaos Control and Postmark, whilst it's Sea The Clouds second attempt at landing a handicap. Mascat has been off track the longest at 195 days during which he left Joe Tizzard's yard for new handler Syd Hosie. Two others, For Pleasure (114d) and Sea The Clouds (184d), are also coming off lengthy breaks to challenge those who have already been in action since the start of April.

Glorious Zoff and top weight J'ai Froid are the only two yet to win at a similar trip to this one, but the latter is at least one of just two former Warwick winners, having scored here in a Class 3 handciap hurdle over 3m2f on soft ground back in March 2021. The only track winner is bottom weight Izayte who won here over course and distance three weeks ago off 6lbs and one class lower than today to get off the mark at the eighth time of asking.

Instant Expert adds to those stats by informing us of four previous Class 3 NH winners and also tells us that four of this field have yet to win on good ground...

For Pleasure actually won a Grade 2 Novice Hurdle at Cheltenham in November 2020, before making the frame in a Grade 1 at the 2021 Cheltenham festival, but has been in steady decline since, as shown by the fact that he's now some 21lbs lower than his last winning mark. Most of this field have handled good ground well enough, but Glorious Zoff is 0 from 5, the same as Coolnaugh Haze's record at Class 3. For Pleasure has failed to make the frame in three visits to Warwick and has a really poor record at this trip.

Finest View has some good numbers despite not winning for a year, but there's not much winning form on offer here. Hopefully the place stats will tell us more...

There's definitely a bit more consistency there, but Glorious Zoff is still poor on good ground and For Pleasure doesn't like the trip, but overall the ones who look best from a placing perspective are...

...not withstanding the fact that Mascat hasn't raced for over six months and is still 8lbs higher than his last win seven starts ago. His record over hurdles, however, reads 13812 and according to recent outings, I'd not be surprised if he wasn't setting the tempo of the race from the front here with natural front-runner For Pleasure...

...and leaders have an excellent win record here over this going, course and distance...

...whilst prominent runners also have a great chance of running on for a place, which is good news for Chaos Control, Sea The Clouds and Coolnaugh Haze.

Summary

The four that I'm most interested in here are Mascat, Chaos Control, Sea The Clouds and Coolnaugh Haze. And I think Chaos Control is the most likely to succeed. He wasn't disgraced at all when 6th of 11 in the Grade 1 Anniversary Hurdle at Aintree last month and did win by 22 lengths at Market Rasen two starts ago. He looks like he might well be leniently treated here off an opening mark of 123.

The other trio are all more than capable of making the frame and with most bookies paying four places, they'd certainly be of interest from an E/W perspective. Sadly no odds were available at 4pm, so I had to revisit the piece later to check prices. Chaos Control was never long enough for me to go E/W, but I took 4-place E/W options about Mascat, Sea The Clouds and Coolnaugh Haze.

 

 

Racing Insights, Wednesday 03/05/23

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 1.50 Wolverhampton
  • 3.00 Wolverhampton
  • 3.50 Ascot
  • 5.00 Ascot
  • 6.40 Brighton
  • 7.50 Gowran Park

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have generated just one runner on course 1-year form and another two runners on 30-day form and even one of those is now not running!

Although it's nowhere near the best race of the day, we really should marry up our 'free' races with our feature of the day and see how James Ferguson's sole runner gets on down South. It's a second visit to the Coast on the bounce for us as we now take a look at the 6.40 Brighton, where Menalippe from the TS report will take on eight others over a left-handed seven furlongs on good to firm ground (as I suspected yesterday) in a Class 5, 3yo flat handicap...

The Toff and Quinault both won last time out and are raised 3lbs and 6lbs respectively for those runs. Featured horse Menalippe was third and has won two of her last five. Ghassan is a four-race maiden, as is Enborne, whilst Constitution has yet to win any of seven starts, making the frame just once and has been last home in each of his last three.

We've no handicap debutants or new headgeat etc on display, but four of them (Quinault, Enborne, Phoenix Glow & Estehwadh) all step up a class from the basement, despite the last three not even making the frame. All nine have raced in the last month with Quinault turned back out just six days after scoring at Chelmsford over 6f.

As is often the case at this time of year, Instant Expert has little data about a 3yo flat handicap, but we do see that both King of Ithaca and The Toff have won at this grade already and they've both won over today's trip, as have featured horse Menalippe and bottom weight Estehwadh...

Quite a lot of red there and both Constitution and Estehwadh are already looking like confirmed Class 6 types, whilst Enborne might benefit from a change of trip after four starts all at 7f.  The place stats. however, aren't quite as bleak...

...with a few places at class & trip, but Enborne has been found wanting here again whilst LTO winner The Toff is the eye-catcher. The Toff is drawn 3 of 9 here and whilst his graphic suggests a low draw is favoured...

...it doesn't really tell the whole story as stall-by-stall, you probably don't want stalls 1 or 2...

...but The Toff should be fine in stall3, as that 3 to 8 corridor looks favourite. Enborne suffers another blow here, being widest of all in #9. Those drawn highest have won in the past, though, but the heat map suggests they need to get out quickly and lead...

...but most running style/draw combos look like they'll have a chance here. LTO winner Quinault is drawn dead centre in box 5 and if he's a front runner, then he'll have the ideal pace/draw make-up, so let's check how he has been running...

He doesn't seem to be a front-runner per sé, but that prominent winning run LTO was easily his best performance to date, so he might well be further forward than the pace scores might suggest, but with at least half of the field looking like they might want to get on with it, we could have a quick one on our hands and getting on with it is the ideal way here at Brighton over 7f...

...and I'd suggest is a case of pace>draw here.

Summary

The obvious starting point is the fact we've two LTO winners and not a great deal of form elsewhere, but neither tick all the boxes. Quinault was beaten by seven lengths when last home of seven on his sole Flat appearance and was beaten by 11 lengths and 7.5 lengths on the A/W before getting off the mark at the fourth attempt last week. He's up 6lbs for that run and up in both class and trip.

As for The Toff, he started well last summer, finishing 3rd and 2nd on his first two starts, but was then placed just once in seven, including being last home twice, before arriving at this class/trip at Lingfield in late March, where on a more realistic mark of 67 he was second of nine and then finally got off the mark over the same track/trip three weeks later. He's at the same class/trip as that win a fortnight ago, but is up 3lbs for a three-quarter length success, so there's little room for error.

I suspect these will be the first two home, and then after them, you could suggest three, four or five similar types, but I'd be surprised if Menalippe wasn't on the premises at closing time. I'd be happy to back Menalippe on an E/W basis if I could get 8's or bigger and seeing as I haven't got that much separating Quinault & The Toff, I'd prefer the latter to win, because we'll get more value from the price.

Racing Insights, Wednesday 26/04/23

/in /by

Wednesday's free GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss.

Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way! And as ever, we ask you to please refer to our User Guide for further information.

In addition to the TS report, we also have the following fully functional free racecards...

  • 3.00 Perth
  • 4.05 Perth
  • 4.53 Ludlow
  • 5.20 Punchestown
  • 6.45 Lingfield

My own personal settings for the TS report ...

...have actually generated the following...

...but as Sod's Law often prevails, none of my TS qualifiers are in a 'free' race so I'm going to see if Messrs McCain and Hughes stand any chance of getting Dreams of Home to repeat last year's win in the 2.30 Perth, a competitive-looking, 5-runner, Class 3, 5yo+ handicap chase (12 fences) over a right-handed two miles on good to soft ground...

Sword of Fate was the only one of these to win last time out and he's the only one stepping up in class. Corrigeen Rock drops in class after failing to make the frame for the first time in five starts, whilst Ashington has been placed on each of his last two outings.

All five have won over today's trip and both top and bottom weight have won over course and distance; Dreams of Home landed this race last year off 2lbs higher than today and Sword of Fate (carrying 24lbs less than top-weight) scored over track/trip way back in September 2021!

Dream of Home wears a tongue tie for the first time and probable outsider Casa Tall wears first-time cheekpieces in attempt to regain past form after a poor run of form, failing to make the frame in any of his last nine, failing to complete three of them. All bar Ashington have raced in the last three to five weeks, but he has had three months rest since a hurdles outing at Sedgefield and he hasn't tackled a fence since early December 2022.

DREAMS OF HOME won this race last year off a mark of 131 and then defied a 4lb rise and a 7.5 month break to win again at Kelso in December. hasn't quite been as good since, but now on a career-low mark and could easily bounce back.

CORRIGEEN ROCK finished 1122 over fences this season before a step up to Class 2 proved too much at Ascot earlier this month, as he was beaten by some 19 lengths. He's back down in class here, but only eased by a pound, so he might have to wait to pick up some winning form.

ASHINGTON has raced 42 times so far, but only 4 times over fences, with results reading 51P2 with the last of those races coming twenty weeks ago. He might need reacquainting with these bigger obstacles and I fear that 2m could be too sharp for him.

CASA TALL failed to win any of seven over hurdles, but is three from seventeen over fences, but was three from seven! He last won 18 months ago and with a run since then reading 25FB3664U4, I'd be surprised to see him back in the winner's enclosure here, despite the first-time cheekpieces.

SWORD OF FATE won a Class 5 chase here off a mark of 101 over 2m4½f almost a year ago, but then lost eleven on the bounce before a win last time out at Wetherby after his mark had finally relented to 100. If he runs like he did last time out, then he could well defy a 5lb rise and he did win off 106 over course and distance back in September 2021, but he rarely puts two good runs back to back and the race at Wetherby LTO did pretty much fall apart, so i'm not sure about him going in again here.

Instant Expert suggests that the top two on the card might well be the ones to focus on...

...and Casa Tall's record on good to soft puts a further red mark against his chances. Sword of Fate likes it here at Perth, but has struggled in this grade with his best form coming at Class 4. Top weight and featured runner, Dreams of Home is actually 1 from 2 over two miles, but has only won one of five when asked to go another half furlong, but he is a good 6lbs lower than his last win, whilst Corrigeen Rock is 8lbs higher than a winning run from early December.

Recent pace profiles from this handful of runners suggest that Casa Tall might get cut adrift if he's not careful...

...as there might be a fair bit of early pace on, but that alone wouldn't spell the end of his chances, as there doesn't appear to be too much of a pace bias from similar past races...

...and when there's little pace bias over fences then form and ability come tot he fore and that's what will speel the end of Casa Tall's chances!

Summary

Casa Tall isn't good enough to live with the other four in my opinion, but you could probably make a case for any of the others. That said, Ashington hasn't jumped a fence for a good while and would probably prefer a longer trip, whilst Sword of Fate is up 5lbs and has hardly been reliable at putting two good runs together.

So, almost by default, we're with the two that scored best on Instant Expert and featured horse Dreams of Home seems a more likely winner here based on the weights, but Corrigeen Rock should give him a decent race.

The competitive nature of the contest is shown by Hills (only market open at 3.40pm) early prices...

...but it'd be Dreams of Home to retain the race for me.

Racing Insights, Wednesday 19/04/23

/in /by

Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 1.30 Cheltenham
  • 1.50 Newmarket
  • 2.50 Beverley
  • 7.15 Gowran park

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have generated the following runners for me to consider...

14-day form

30-day form

Course 1-year form

Course 5-year form

and with the in-form Garry Moore, as featured on my 14-day form report from Trainer Stats, having a runner in the first of our 'free' races and that race being a Class 1 affair, it makes sense for me to look at the 1.30 Cheltenham, a 12-runner, 5yo+, Grade 2 handicap chase (16 fences) over a left handed 2m4½f on good ground that will be softer in places...

FORM : Herbiers won last time out, Gemirande is two from four, Heltenhm has won three on the spin and Presentandcounting is three from four and 4 wins (+2 places) from his last six. Cilaos Emery, Captain Tom Cat and Deyrann de Carjac are winless in 7, 7 and 15 races respectively.

CLASS : Only five of these (Caribean Boy, Coole Cody, Gemirande, Presentandcounting & Deyrann de Carjac) ran at Class 1 last time out, as Cilaos Emery, Heltenham, Super Six, Captain Tom Cat & Zhiguli all raced at Class 2 with Herbiers & Unanswered Prayers now both stepping up two classes.

ANYTHING NEW? Cilaos Emery runs in a handicap for only the second time and wears a first-time tongue tie, whilst Caribean Boy runs for the first time since a wind op.

COURSE/DISTANCE FORM : All bar top weight Cilaos Emery have won over a similar trip to this one, whilst Coole Cody and Unanswered Prayers are both former course and distance winners and Captain Tom Cat has won a 2m5½f hurdle here at HQ.

DAYS SINCE RUN : Presentandcounting last raced 194 days ago, whilst Caribean Boy and Deyrann de Carjac return from breaks of 81 and 108 days with the remainder of the field having run in the last 10 weeks. Captain Tom Cat's runner-up finish LTO was just nine days ago!

Elsewhere, Instant Expert tells me that Heltenham, Super Six and Zhiguli have yet to win a good ground chase and that only four of the field have landed a Class 1 pot over fences...

Others to note are Deyrann de Carjac's poor return at Class/Course.Distance and Caribean Boy's low success at Class 1. Plenty of these are racing off marks 10 to 18lbs lower than their last win, but that's a sign of poorly they have been running of late, although Presentandcounting is in great form over hurdles right now, but runs some 13lbs lower than his last chase win, suggesting he could go well if converting that form to the bigger obstacles. Conversely, form horse Heltenham is up 11lbs for his latest win, making him some 27lbs higher than before his three-race winning streak.

Heltenham and Presentandcounting couldn't approach their races any more differently than they do, though. The former is likely to leave a run for the line until fairly into procedings, whilst Presentandcounting loves to race from the front as does another in-form runner, Gemirande...

...and with the likes of Coole Cody, Unanswered Prayers, Cilaos Emery & Captain Tom Cat also showing a fondness for front running, there could be some fireworks early doors in a contest that has favoured those racing further forward than mid-division...

Summary

I think that Heltenham might well be the best horse in the race on a level playing field, but he'll find it tougher here up in class, up 11lbs and racing from the back of the field with a strong pace ahead of him. That doesn't mean he can't win, of course, but at odds of around 3/1, I'd be reluctant to chance my money.

However, two other form horses do like to race prominently and as such Gemirande might be a better value win bet at 6/1 after only missing out by a head in the Greatwood Gold Cup last time out, whilst if Presentandcounting can transfer some of his hurdles form to these larger obstacles, then his 16/1 ticket could be a decent E/W option, especially if you've got accounts with SkyBet and/or Unibet, as they're paying five places!

Racing Insights, Wednesday 29/03/23

/in /by

Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 3.20 Lingfield
  • 4.35 Navan
  • 4.45 Newcastle
  • 8.00 Kempton

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have highlighted the following...

...and with James Fanshawe's sole entry above running in one of our 'free' races, I think I should attempt to assess the chances of Novel Legend in the 8.00 Kempton, a 7-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a right-handed two miles on standard to slow polytrack...

None of these won last time out, but Blazeon Five, First Emperor, Sarsons Risk and Novel Legend were all runners-up with the first three of that quartet winning two of their last five. Hydroplane & Vazir both won three starts ago, but Grandmaster Flash has eleven defeats on the bounce and hasn't made the frame in his last six.

None of this field raced at a lower grade last time out with Blazeon Five, Grandmaster Flash and fast-finisher Novel Legend all running at this Class 4 level. First Emperor was second at Class 3 with Vazir unplaced at that grade, Hydroplane was third at Class2, whilst Sarsons Risk was a faller in a Grade 2 hurdle, having won a Class 4 contest previously.

Hydroplane and Grandmaster Flash have both won over today's trip in the past with Blazeon Five and First Emperor having scored over this track & trip. As for results on standard to slow going and/or at Class 4, Instant Expert helps us to fill the gaps...

...where aside from indifferent results at this grade, Blazeon Five and First Emperor are the ones to catch the eye. The place stats are useful here, as they suggest that Blazeon Five might not actually be a blow out at Class 4, having finished 1222 in his last four efforts at this level...

At this point, I'd be making a mental note that the out of form pair, grandmaster Folash & Vazir should be discounted from my thoughts and I'd have doubts about First Emperor being good enough to run at this grade.

In a smallish field over two miles, the draw really shouldn't be able to make or break a runner's chance, so this aspect of the toolkit is probably not as important as usual, but for clarity/transparency, we should take a look anyway...

I wouldn't read too much into the suggestion there's a low draw bias here, as the figures are very much skewed by a disproportionate number of winners from stall 1 and my thoughts are that the actual tempo of the race would dictate who goes best. For the record, those races above have been won by horses running as follows...

With mid-divisional to prominent runners faring best of all. We can look back at this field's last few runs to see how they might approach this one...

..but with many of them wanting to run in that mid-division zone, it doesn't actually help us solve the riddle.

Summary

When the draw and pace stats can't help us, then I generally fall back upon recent form and Instant Expert's suitability overview and if that's what I do here, the obvious choice to me is Blazeon Five, with three wins and three runner-up finishes from his last six. Four of those have been over course and distance where his form reads 1122 and whilst not wanting to disparage his previous riders, the booking of William Buick looks a positive move.

At 5.30pm Blazeon Five was 11/4 joint fav with featured horse, Novel Legend and I prefer the former to the latter. The latter has every chance of making the frame here if showing no rustiness from a five month break and they'll probably be the first two home. No E/W suggestion here.

Racing Insights, Wednesday 15/03/23

/in /by

A nice 11/1 placer and near 12/1 tricast/trifecta from the opening day of the Festival on Tuesday warmed things up for me nicely, but back to business now.

Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 2.10 Cheltenham
  • 6.00 Kempton
  • 6.15 Newcastle
  • 7.15 Newcastle

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have, sadly, generated no runners for me to consider, so I'm going to take a look at the last of the 'free' races, the 7.15 Newcastle, an 8-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a straight 7f on standard going tapeta...

My initial thoughts were that this would be a contest between Justcallmepete, Walking On Clouds and Lord Rapscallion, but let's see what the card and tools us. None of the field won last time out, but Alexander James was a runner-up and Walking On Clouds, Lord Rapscallion & Swiss Ace all finished third, whilst Justcallmepete, Walking On Clouds, Lord Rapscallion and Abnaa have all won at least two of their last five outings.

Justcallmepete, Lord Rapscallion and Abnaa all drop in class to run here with the other five all have raced at this grade LTO. Both Swiss Ace and Abnaa are note as fast finishers and Archduke Ferdinand makes both a handicap and a UK debut after racing to some success in Sweden, although he was disqualified in each of his last two runs for 'medical irregularities'.

He's also likely to need the run after 199 days off track whilst all his rivals have been seen in the last 1 to 3 weeks and he's up against three former course and distance winners in the shape of Swiss Ace, Gobi Sunset and Abnaa. Alexander James and Walking On Clouds have both won here over a mile and 6f respectively whilst Archduke Ferdinand won over 7f on dirt in Sweden and Lord Rapscallion has a couple of Chelmsford 7f successes to his name.

Instant Expert, as ever, has all the relevant form under these conditions...

...where aside from failing to make the frame on his only previous visit to Newcastle, Lord Rapscallion catches the eye and it should be said that his previous run here was at Class 2 over two years ago! Justcallmepete gets the going, but has a poor record at 7f and the same can be said about Walking On Clouds too, but if we look at place form, there's a school of thought that he might be better than those numbers...

Unusually for a straight 7f track, we do have a bit of a draw bias here...

...where it has been advantageous to be drawn in the higher half of the draw, which will be music to the ears of those following Walking On Clouds and if you can get a high draw here, the prescribed tactics are to race prominently tucked in behind the leader(s), according to the heat map...

...and that's because those races above that we used for the draw stats have been won as follows...

Walking On Clouds is unlikely to race prominently though, as his average pace score from his last four outings suggests more of a mid-division position, but at a 15% strike rate the high draw/mid-div combo doesn't do too shabbily. The stats suggest Lord Rapscallion will keep him company, whilst Abnaa sits out back in a race that Gobi Sunset is likely to set the tempo...

...and if we transpose our horses' running styles onto that heatmap...

...you'd probably say Gobi Sunset from a low draw and Swiss Ace/Walking On Clouds from the higher stalls as the ones catching the eye.

Summary

I started off with the thought that this would be a contest between (in racecard order) Justcallmepete, Walking On Clouds & Lord Rapscallion and it was those three plus Abnaa who have been in the best recent form. Lord Rapscallion was the first to emerge from Instant Expert, but when we looked at place form, both Gobi Sunset and Walking On Clouds came to the fore.

The draw seems to favour Walking On Clouds, Swiss Ace and possibly Abnaa, whilst Swiss Ace probably had the best pace profile and it was he, Gobi Sunset and Walking On Clouds I noted from the pace/draw heatmap.

So what does that mean? Well, it means that purely on form/namechecks, I'd be siding with Walking On Clouds with Lord Rapscallion as next best. As for another for the frame/tricast etc, it's any of Justcallmepete, Abnaa, Gobi Sunset and Swiss Ace and I think that Abnaa might just be the one. He's down in class, gets weight all round, he's a fast finisher and won over course and distance three starts ago. As along as he's not too far off the pace, he could fly home and grab a place, making a nice 11/1 E/W bet if you're so inclined.

As for my 1-2, Walking On Clouds is a 9/2 shot, which is fair and Lord Rapscallion is an equally fairly priced 8/1. also good for E/W punters.