Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.
HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!
[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]
In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...
- 1.05 Musselburgh
- 2.15 Musselburgh
- 3.10 Dundalk
- 4.25 Chepstow
- 6.30 Kempton
My own personal settings for the TS report...
...have generated the following pair of runners for me to consider...
30-day form...
Course 1-year form...
The TS report races and the free list both include a Class 2 contest, which is as good as it gets in the UK this Wednesday and we're going to focus on the race featuring James Fanshawe's 6 yr old gelding Fresh, as his race is easily the most valuable of the day at over £41k to the winner. The race, of course, is the 7.00 Kempton, a 12-runner, Class 2, 3yo+, A/W handicap over a right-handed 6f on standard to slow polytrack...
Clearpoint was the only one of these to win last time out, but he's up two classes here. And although beaten on their latest outings, Prop Forward, Fivethousandtoone, Aramis Grey and Baldomero all had top-three finishes, but the latter is now up a class, as are the fast-finishing May Sonic, yard debutant Danger Alert, Justcallmepete, Watchya and Admiral D.
Fresh, May Sonic, Watchya, Baldomero and Admiral D are all without a win in at least seven races, having actually lost 9, 7, 7, 19 & 16 respectively on the bounce! Dubai Station is another making a yard debut here and featured horse Fresh will wear cheekpieces for the first time.
Four of this field raced just a week ago here over this course and distance at a class lower than this and here's how they finished in 3rd, 5th, 6th and 7th in a 9-runner field won by another James Fanshawe horse...
Four others have raced in the last 23-39 days, but the final four may well need the run, as Dubai Station & Danger Alert return from 4 month breaks; Prop Forward has been off for six months and it's nine months since Fivethousandtoone was last seen
Baldomero is the only runner in the field yet to score over 6f, but he has at least won here at Kempton, albeit 20 races ago when landing a Class 2, 1m2f handicap just over 20 months ago. Six others have also been successful at this track with Prop Forward, Fresh, May Sonic, Danger Alert, Aramis Grey and Clearpoint all former course and distance winners and those wins are included in the following data from Instant Expert...
...where I have immediate concerns about Baldomero (going/class), Aramis Grey (class) and Fresh (trip). Fresh is also showing at 18lbs higher than his last A/W win, which would be a major issue, but that is tempered somewhat by the fact that his last win was off 91 on the Flat at Ascot, he's still 6lbs above that, of course and not in the best of form, but 6lbs is far better than 18lbs.
Despite his poor return at Class 2 on the A/W, Aramis Grey looks like being one of the best suited here behind May Sonic and the obvious pick, Prop Forward. His 1 from 8 at this grade might well contain a number of near misses, so let's check the place stats...
...which say he has made the frame in six of his seven Class 2 defeats and he's a real contender now. Prop Forward's 100% record across the line is impressive and both Fivethousandtoone and Baldomero have great numbers, but May Sonic now looks like a win or bust merchant.
Our Draw Analyser suggests a distinctive advantage to being placed in the lowest third of the draw for both win and place perspectives...
...which will be welcomed by connections of Justcallmepete, Dubai Station, May Sonic and Admiral D, but as we all know by now, getting a 'plum' draw is only half of the battle in these sprint contests and we really shouldn't underplay the pace/tactics side of the equation. Using those same 220+ races as above, our Pace Analyser says that as with many sprints, pace wins the race with leaders winning/placing far more often (percentage-wise) than the rest of the field...
In fact, the 290 leaders make up just 11.54% of the total runners, but account for 27.68% of the winners and 20.24% of the placer, but the interesting thing is that almost 46% of leaders who make the frame then go on to win. If we then look at how this field have raced in their three most recent outings, then it looks like another tick in the box for Instant Expert stand-out Prop Forward...
...and if we arrange the field into draw order and impose them onto the pace/draw heatmap...
...I'd suggest that Prop Forward beats Justcallmepete, Dubai Station, May Sonic and Admiral D to the bend and will get to cut across the apex and lead the way home with the rail at this disposal.
Summary
After looking at Instant Expert and the pace/draw combinations, it's difficult to envisage Prop Forward not being the one to beat. His A/W record reads 1131 with the last two being over this class, course and distance and whilst he's not been seen for six months, it's worth noting those last two A/W runs (over class, C&D) saw him third of eleven after 213 days off and he then won a 12-runner affair 251 days later on his next appearance, so this lay-off doesn't worry me.
We're not getting rich or upsetting the applecart by backing a 10/3 (Hills at 4.50pm) favourite, but Prop Forward looks the most likely to succeed in my eyes.
I like the look of Aramis Grey, but he's going to have to fly late on to get involved from the back, so if I was to look for a longer-priced E/W punt, then I think that the fast finishing May Sonic might be the one at 12/1 (Bet365, 4 places), whilst you could also make cases for both Baldomero (11/1 PP, 4 places) and Watchya (20/1 PP, 4 places) if they get away smartly from wider draws, as they should be able to cut across the runners in stalls 5 to 8 to give chase to Prop Forward.
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