Racing Insights

Racing Insights, Wednesday 15/11/23

Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

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  • 1.30 Bangor
  • 5.30 Kempton
  • 5.50 Newcastle
  • 7.30 Kempton
  • 8.00 Kempton

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have generated the following quartet of runners for me to consider...

30-day form...

course 1-year form...

And from all the races above, I'm going to look at the 7.30 Kempton, as it's on the free list and has a runner from the daily free feature in the shape of James Fanshawe's Royal Scandal. The race itself is a 14-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ A/W handicap over a right-handed 1m4f on standard to slow polytrack...

Cardano is the only LTO winner in this field, but Capital Theory, Enthrallment and Haku all had top three finishes. Most of the field have won at least one of their last seven outings, but Graphite, Enthrallment and Kenzai Warrior have lost their last 9, 8 and 15 races respectively.

The latter's cause won't be helped by stepping up a class here, as do Enthrallment and Haku with Cardano and Buxted Too both up two grades, whilst Savvy Knight, Batemans Bay, Capital Theory and Geremia all drop down a level with Batemans Bay running in a handicap for just the second time, as does Adrian; Kenzai Warrior wears cheekpieces for the second time.

Adrian, Cardano, Graphite, Dark Moon Rising and Geremia have all won over this trip elsewhere, whilst the latter has scored here over two miles. Kenzai Warrior has also won here and that was over a mile, whilst Savvy Knight, Buxted Too, Royal Scandal and Haku are all former course and distance winners, as highlighted by Instant Expert...

...where featured runner Royal Scandal is the immediate eyecatcher, albeit of a small sample size. Buxted Too and Haku have good records at this type of trip, but Savvy Knight and Capital Theory share just 1 win from 14 attempts, however the latter has made the frame in 5 of his 7 defeats...

...and he (Capital Theory) looks to be a strong contender for the frame on the above evidence, as do Geremia and Haku. This trio will set off from opposite ends of the stalls, though with Capital Theory drawn in 1 and the other pair out in 9 & 11 but our Draw Analyser says that the draw shouldn't be the reason for a horse losing this race...

...with any advantage gained only being slight. This is pretty logical, I'd have thought with a mile and a half to run, the draw really shouldn't be an issue. The key here at Kempton over this type of trip is not to leave yourself too much to do, as the Pace Analyser says that hold-up horses fare worse than any others...



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...which, based on the field's last three outings doesn't represent great news for the likes of Graphite, Dark Moon Rising, Batemans Bay and Geremia...

...but it looks like Capital Theory and Adrian will be amongst the early pacemakers.

Royal Scandal, Capital Theory, Geremia and Haku were the ones that stood out for me from Instant Expert, but only Capital Theory and Haku look like having decent enough pace profiles to do well here from that quartet. I'd add Adrian, Savvy Knight and Enthrallment into the mix on pace too, to give me a shortlist of five to consider here.

Summary

I've left myself with five to look at and two of them : Capital Theory (5/1), Royal Scandal (6/1) and Savvy Knight (13/2) are in the trio at the top end of the market, along with our featured runner. Of the three, I like Capital Theory the best, but I think 5/1 is too short here and the other pair aren't long enough for my liingto back E/W.

So, that brings me to Enthrallment, Haku and Adrian and of this trio, it's Enthrallment who interests me most as an E/W option at 17/2 with Hills who pay four places. He was a runner-up last time out beaten by less than a length but well clear of the pack and a similar run puts him in the frame again.

Adrian is a rank outsider with plenty to prove, but Haku could go well here. A former course and distance winner who looks in decent nick and was third over C&D off a pound higher last time out. He's currently available at 10/1 with Hills (4 places) and could also be a reasonable E/W bet.

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