2024 Breeders' Cup Mile

Introduction

The Breeders’ Cup Mile is one of the seven original races inaugurated with the Breeders’ Cup at the sadly now defunct Hollywood Park in 1984. A Grade 1 race on the turf, it serves as an international battleground where the world’s best middle-distance runners converge to compete for supremacy. Over the years, the Mile has consistently asserted its position as arguably the most important race globally at the distance, attracting an increasingly diverse pool of talent from North America, Europe, and beyond.

Breeders’ Cup Mile  History

The Breeders’ Cup Mile was established to fill a void in American horse racing for a top-tier middle-distance turf race. The event quickly gained prominence, serving as a critical year-end championship that almost always determines Eclipse Award winners and influences international rankings. With a purse that has steadily risen and now stands at around $2 million, the Mile has become one of the most sought-after titles ‘on the greeen’.

The Mile is open to thoroughbreds aged three years and older, and it is run over a distance of one mile on turf.

A feature of the Breeders’ Cup Mile has been the number of repeat winners. No fewer than five horses have secured multiple Mile titles, but only one – the outstanding mare Goldikova – has won it three times. Indeed, she is one of only two horses to win at the Breeders’ Cup race three times! [The other is Beholder, winner of the Juvenile Fillies, and twice triumphant in the Distaff]

2024 Breeders’ Cup Mile Challenge Series Races

Breeders’ Cup Mile Trends

• 21 of last 22 winners had 4-6 seasonal starts
• 18 of last 22 winners had 2+ mile turf wins (exceptions all Euros)
• Repeat winners common (Miesque, Lure, Da Hoss, Goldikova, Wise Dan)
• 16 of the last 28 were US winners; 7 French-trained (UK/Ire back in biz, after long blank, wins in ’18, ’20, ’21, ’22, ’23)
• 10/12 3yo winners were Euros (4 fillies); 12/15 5yo+ winners were US (exception Goldikova #3, and 2x C Appleby)
• Euro G1 win important (Expert Eye, Order of Australia no G1 win), US any Graded win
• 27 of the last 30 ran 123 last time, or finished within 4L of the winner
• Career record at 1m of BC Mile winners since 2002: Runs 150, 1st 88 (59%), 2nd 35 (23%)
• Thus, the last 22 BC Mile winners had a collective 82% 1-2 record at the distance
• Only 1 front runner has been 1st or 2nd since 2000 (Smooth Like Strait, 2nd in 2021); Lure (1992,1993) only winning front-runner
• Charlie Appleby won in ’21, ’22, ’23 – bidding for four-timer in consecutive years
• Look to the closers?

How The Runners Fit

Breeders’ Cup Mile Pace Map

Goliad is the most obvious pace angle having led in his most recent two starts. Carl Spackler won from the front last time but has been versatile in terms of run style and may elect to drop in from his wide post this time, or perhaps circle more habitually steady starters and stalk the pace. The latter is perhaps more likely. Diego Valazquez could sit handy, so too Ramatuelle from her inside stall and perhaps Porta Fortuna; with the likes of Chili Flag and Notable Speech expected to play their cards later.

Key Trials

Go to breederscup.com for race videos.

2024 Breeders’ Cup Mile Trends Contenders

Chili Flag, Diego Velazquez, Porta Fortuna, Johannes, Carl Spackler

Breeders’ Cup Mile Form Preview

Ramatuelle has drawn the inside stall which, for quite a slight filly, is not ideal. She was a clear winner of the 7f Prix de la Foret (G1) last time, quickening smartly on the soft ground there. Previously, she’d been third over a mile on good to firm at Ascot in the Coronation Stakes, behind Porta Fortuna. She’s never won at a mile – as close as a neck third in the 1000 Guineas – though this easy circuit will give her every chance. I just wonder about her battling qualities if it gets tight on the inside.

In stall 2 is Chad Brown’s vastly experienced five-year-old mare Chili Flag. She was formerly trained in France without turning many heads but since moving to Brown has won five times, including a mile Grade 1 in June of this year. She went from last to first in a short field there, displaying a nice turn of foot (22.18 seconds for the final quarter mile). Since then she put in a dull effort over an extra furlong before a fine second in a mile G1; that day she was ridden in a detached last before passing all bar the winner, the smart Gina Romantica, in the straight. She was given too much to do. This will be her first US start against the boys on her 13th Stateside outing.

Japan is represented in stall 3 by Geoglyph, a five-year-old son of former dirt sprinter Drefong. He’s three from 17 lifetime and hasn’t won since taking the Japanese 2000 Guineas in April 2022, 13 starts back. There are some shrewd judges who think he’s a player but I just can’t see it. Yes, it was a better effort last time when second in the G2 Sapporo Kinen over 10f (perfect trip, outrun by the winner). Since winning his home Guineas he’s only run at a mile twice, finishing 9th of 14 and 6th of 18.

Diego Velazquez exits gate 4 with Ryan Moore steering. He’s won four of his eight career starts, three of them at Leopardstown since a debut Curragh score. The quartet of defeats could be excused as follows: heavy ground in the race formerly known as the Racing Post Trophy, soft in the French 2000 Guineas, heavy over 1m 2 1/2f in the Prix du Jockey Club, and failed to stay in the mile and a half King Edward VII Stakes at Royal Ascot.

Bookending those defeats were a pair of wins at the start and end, most recently in the G2 Solonaway on Irish Champions Weekend. Sent off a shade of odds on that day, he raced handily and was authoritative in victory. Prior to that he won a G3 by a whopping seven lengths, surging clear in the last furlong. He again figures to be close to the pace from a good draw and is a contender.

Seven-year-old Goliad will get a few moments of fame on the front end but, despite winning four of his last six in lower grade, nothing in his 20 race career suggests he’s up to this level.

Charlie Appleby is bidding for a fourth straight Breeders’ Cup Mile win – something not achieved before by any trainer in any Breeders’ Cup race – and he relies on 2000 Guineas and Sussex Stakes winner Notable Speech in that bid. A flop in France last time was explained as due to the very soft ground and, if he repeats the form of either his Guineas or Sussex wins, he’s the one to beat. He has push button acceleration, and the Sussex has been a hallmark of British winners Modern Games (trained by Appleby) and Expert Eye in recent years. The danger with a late running style like his is a troubled trip but William Buick has normally threaded the needle when needed.

To his outside is the top class filly Porta Fortuna, trained by Donnacha O’Brien. He is bidding to emulate his brother Joseph and father Aidan in training a Breeders’ Cup winner and this very classy three-year-old will give him every chance. She was second in the Juvenile Fillies Turf last season, since when she’s been a neck away from a perfect four from four, all Group 1’s. That narrow defeat came in the 1000 Guineas, which she followed up with dominant verdicts in the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot, Falmouth Stakes at Newmarket and Matron Stakes at Leopardstown, all be a length or more. She handles top of the ground, has a terrific gear change and is arguably the best turf mile filly in the world. But here she faces males for only the second time in her career, having been a four length second in August last year on her prior try. I love her!

Cherie DeVaux saddles the four-year-old colt More Than Looks, who’ll jump from trap 8. He’s only had two runs this year, both second places in Grade 1 company, and though he got no closer than sixth in last season’s Breeders’ Cup Mile, he was beaten only two lengths having made up six further lengths in the final quarter mile. Winner Master Of The Seas recorded a 22.12 closing quarter mile sectional, and More Than Looks covered the same distance in 22.11 seconds, fastest of all. Plenty of Mile winners were circling back for a second or third attempt at the race, including bombs like Tourist and Court Vision, and this lad is worth a second glance.

In 9 is local hope Johannes, winner of seven of his eight turf starts including all four this year. His one defeat in the sequence was the only time he raced away from SoCal and it might be that their male turfers are also a notch below those elsewhere in the States, and maybe two notches below some of the global superstars in this field. He won his only spin on the Del Mar lawn (9f) so does have home field advantage.

Win For The Money is in 10, and he won the Woodbine Mile last time. That race was a springboard for both Master Of The Seas and Modern Games to win the BC Mile, but it did look a substandard renewal this year, both Charlie Appleby’s Naval Power and former star Big Rock significantly under-performing. He does have a decent late kick and, assuming it comes down to a sprint finish (as it often does), he would be a runner in the foot race.

Ten Happy Rose won the G1 Victoria Mile against her own sex in Tokyo but was flat in her only start since that May score, racing against males. She’s six now and, while it’s not unheard of for one of her vintage to win the Mile, there are more appealing options. Plenty of more appealing options.

One of them, in spite of the car park draw in 12, is Carl Spackler. Trained by Chad Brown, he’s a four-year-old son of Lope De Vega who has won six of his last seven. The most recent two victories were both in Grade 1 company, beating More Than Looks into second each time. He made all last time and was close to the lead the time before; I expect he’ll try to go forward and sit handy but he’ll need a little luck. He’s six from seven at a mile and looks the clear pick of the American horses on form.

Breeders’ Cup Mile Form Contenders

A fantastic race in prospect, perhaps the race of the meeting. But finding the winner is not easy.

Notable Speech is justifiably favourite and nobody knows better than Charlie Appleby how to get this job done. He looks sure to be on the premises and is a very likely winner, but he’s short enough in a competitive race.

I really respect Ramatuelle’s overall form without seeing it as an obvious fit for a fast ground tight turning mile; especially given her relative size and the inside stall. She’d not be a shock winner – few of these would – but she looks a bit skinny in the market as well as on the track.

Porta Fortuna is a legit star and would be a deserving winner; but she’ll find it tougher against males and is again pretty short market wise.

At the prices, Diego Velazquez is a credible alternative to Notable Speech. He’s three times the odds of the favourite and comes to the race on top form and with conditions expect to suit perfectly.

Breeders’ Cup Mile Results

Key: PP – post position; RS – run style (lengths behind leader: 4 <½L, 3 ½L- 1½L, 2 1¾L – 3½L, 1 > 3½L); Odds – return for a 1 unit stake; SR – Equibase speed figure

Noteworthy Breeders’ Cup Mile Winners

Miesque (1987, 1988)

French mare Miesque became the first horse to win two consecutive editions of the Mile. Her wins in 1987 and 1988 were dominant and set the standard for excellence in the race. Trained by Francois Boutin, she was ridden by Freddie Head, who would go on to train Goldikove to her famous Mile ‘three-peat’.

Lure (1992, 1993)

American-bred Lure equaled Miesque’s feat with back-to-back wins in 1992 and 1993, showcasing his extraordinary speed and agility. Not only was Lure a repeat winner, but he’s the only horse to have won the Mile gate to wire, a feat he all but reprised in his second score, giving best only at the first call by a mere head before moving on to lead for the rest of that double up success.

Goldikova (2008, 2009, 2010)

The brilliant French mare Goldikova stands in a league of her own with three consecutive victories, a feat that remains unmatched in the history of the Mile. She won a mind-boggling fourteen Group or Grade 1’s across five seasons of racing, and placed second or third in another eight, including on her career swansong at Churchill Downs. There, bidding for an unprecedented four-timer in the Mile, she had to settle for third place after a troubled transit.

Wise Dan (2012, 2013)

American gelding Wise Dan not only won the Mile twice but also earned Eclipse Horse of the Year Awards in both years, a testament to his all-around brilliance..