On we go, to the fourth day of Royal Ascot and the final day of our full preview coverage. Win, lose or draw, I hope you've enjoyed the contributions of our assembled panel. Victor Value, aka John Burke, and Gavin Priestley would very much appreciate you checking out their pages (through the banner images in the post) if you'd liked their style/work.

Let's go to Friday's card!

2.30 THE ALBANY STAKES (CLASS 1) (Group 3)

Presented by Victor Value

The Albany Stakes is a Group 3 contest open to two-year-old fillies only. It’s a relatively new race to  Royal Ascot being first run in 2002. Initially Listed status, it became a Group 3 in 2005.

Some useful fillies have won the race before going onto better things including:

Samitar (2011) - Went onto win the following year’s Irish 1,000 Guineas.

Cursory Glance (2014) – Won the Group 1 Moyglare Stakes later that season.

Brave Anna (2016) – Landed the Group 1 Cheveley Park Stakes that year.

Porto Fortuna (2023) – Proved even better as a 3-year-old winning three Group 1’s including the Coronation Stakes here.

 

Trends to Note

Taking a quick look at the ten-year trends, unlike some of the juvenile races at the meeting there hasn’t been a real surprise result. Horses sent off 22/1 & bigger are 0 winners from 86 runners, 3 places.

The ten most recent winners all shared the following trends:

- Won their last start (non-winners last time out are 0 winners from 60 runners, 6 places)
- Returned 17/2 or shorter on their previous start (those sent off 9/1 & bigger are 0 winners from 42 runners, 3 places)

Finally, delving into the draw, winners have come from all over the track in the past ten years. However, if you we look at the last five years in isolation, 10 of the 15 placed horses were drawn in stalls 1 to 8 including four of the five winners.

 

Contenders

Seventeen were declared for this year’s race.  Despite the size of the field, I like just five.

Balantina stepped up markedly on her debut run when making all to win Curragh maiden 26 days ago. Connections won that Curragh race with Porta Fortuna in 2023. I doubt she will prove as good as that multiple Group 1-winning filly, but she has each way claims from stall 4.

Signora was weak in the betting when a 2½ lengths 3rd of 6 to the useful Lady Iman in a Group 3 at Naas on her racecourse debut last month.  Tenderly handled in the closing stages there, she can win races on the evidence of that run. Her dam won the 2017 Queen Mary Stakes and trainer Aidan O’Brien has won this three times since 2016. Strong claims from stall 11.

Green Sense was a winner on her debut at the Curragh in April and improved again when a ¾-length second to Lady Iman in that Naas Group 3.  She’s likely capable of a bit more improvement albeit might not have the upside of the third.

Oisin Murphy rode Balantina and Fitzella last time and has opted for the latter. The daughter of Too Darn Hot built on her racecourse debut promise when winning at Haydock 28 days ago. That performance marked her down as a useful juvenile prospect and she should be in the mix.

Gold Digger was an expensive (260,000gns) purchase at the Craven Breeze Up sales in April. The daughter of Starman overcame a slow start to win at Yarmouth on her debut 37 days ago. Well backed last time, like many of the fillies in the line-up she’s capable of more improvement.

Albany Stakes Verdict

Aidan O’Brien has already landed two of the Royal Ascot juveniles - prior to racing on Thursday - so one must respect the claims of Signora who was thrown in at the deep end on her racecourse debut. Balantina bids to follow in the hoofprints of stablemate Porta Fortuna who won this race two years ago. I think she's a solid each way chance. Fitzella and Gold Digger might prove the best of the British-trained fillies.

Selection: Try Balantina each way at 12/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

 

3.05 THE COMMONWEALTH CUP (CLASS 1) (Group 1)

Presented by Matt Bisogno

A whopping 22 runners for this fantastic addition to the racing calendar generally, and to Royal Ascot more specifically. It's already produced some terrific races - and winners - and this year's renewal looks likely to continue in that vein. However, is it an open and shut case?

The favourite, at shorter than 2/1, is Guineas third and dual juvenile Group 1 winner including at 6f, Shadow Of Light. He shaped like a non-stayer at Newmarket, the mile always being the question mark (along with whether he'd trained on), but ran a cracker before fading in the final half furlong or so. This stiff straight six ought to be ideal, and stall 19 is probably helpful, too. He has a very obvious chance.

Against him are massed ranks, led by the filly Babouche. Classics were never entertained for this Ger Lyons-trained juvenile G1 winner, and she stepped up on a seasonal debut effort when winning the Group 3 Lacken Stakes, comfortably from Whistlejacket, last time out.

Whistlejacket reopposes here, and was also second the day Babouche bagged her Group 1, in the Phoenix Stakes over this trip. He's a very consistent horse, a G1 winner himself in France, and his form ties in closely with both the filly and Shadow Of Light for all that he's been beaten respectful distances by both as his head to head record shows:

 

 

Jonquil's profile is slightly different. Lightly raced, he's run three times at seven furlongs - winning either side of a Listed flop, firstly in a maiden and most recently in the Group 3 Greenham on seasonal debut - before stepping up to a mile last time. That was in the Poulains, the French 2000 Guineas and he was but a head shy of Henri Matisse, so the question is whether he has the speed for this assignment. He will be staying on when others can't but I'm not sure about the trip for all that he's clearly classy and progressive. Connections had Field Of Gold for the St James's Palace or presumably he'd have gone there.

The consistent Ides Of March could easily be on the premises again, but he's got a bit to find with a couple other than Shadow Of Light; ditto Big Mojo, who I half expected to go up in trip this season: this stiffer track will certainly suit - he's a course and distance winner from the trial race earlier this year - and his trainer is a master at getting the best out of sprinters.

The raiding party are headed by French-trained Rayevka and the US sprinter Shisospicy. The former has raced exclusively on the soft side of good and produced a huge career best last time in a Chantilly G3; that form, or a bit more if the faster ground helps, could grab her a podium spot.

Shisospicy has no going concerns, but will be running in a straight line in a race for the first time. She has a stone to find with Shadow Of Light and, though I'm glad she is here to add to the international flavour, I don't fancy her chances especially.

Of the rest, it's always dangerous writing off an Adrian Murray-trained sprinter, and Arizona Blaze was third in the Norfolk last year and ran a slightly unlucky second in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint. He's a well drawn pace angle and can take them along to the quarter pole and beyond - holding on to the finish will be trickier, of course.

Two more worth a mention are last year's Queen Mary winner, Leovanni, and the Nick Luck and Kevin Blake co-owned Lady With The Lamp. The first named is probably better at five furlongs and may not have trained on - bit too early to say - but she obviously fared well here previously; the latter has been unfancied, to some degree at least, on her most recent pair of starts, rallying from far back each time to score. She'll get a similar setup here and may not be a forlorn hope: it's hard to peg the form of deep closers.

It's a cracking race and one that revolves around SHADOW OF LIGHT. I think he probably just wins, tracking Arizona Blaze in the adjacent stall, and finishing strong. He's probably not even a terrible price given there's plenty of dead wood in the context of the grade in this field. A far more speculative each way alternative is Rayevka: she'll need the ground to eke out a bit more but, as a 'now' filly - coming off a big career top - a small win/place play might reward.

Suggestion: Back SHADOW OF LIGHT to win at 2/1 or bigger. Try a tiny e/w on Rayevka at 22/1 with all the extra places.

 

 

3.40 THE DUKE OF EDINBURGH STAKES (CLASS 2) (Handicap) (GBBPLUS RACE)

Presented by Rory Delargy

There’s a growing sense of déjà vu here. Having suggested that high was the place to be in the King George V Handicap on Thursday, I ploughed into stall 17 as a win bet only to watch Sing Us A Song ruin his chance with a dreadful beginning, only made worse by seeing stalls 20 and 21 land the exacta. Arrrgggh!!

Here we are again, then. A big-field handicap where those who can finish off up the centre of the track are at an advantage, and I might just narrow the runners with a view to getting the exacta – or the swinger for the less adventurous (surely the swinger should be for the more adventurous?! No sniggering at the back!)

Long List: Horses who could reasonably be described as hold-up types drawn 12 or higher are as follows:

War Rooms
Siege of Troy
Teumessias Fox
French Duke
Mount Atlas
Stressfree
Flight Leader

Of that group, I have a clear preference for French Duke who I thought was unlucky here last year in the King George V Handicap, while I’d happily throw out Teumessias Fox who has been well beaten twice before at this meeting.

War Rooms represents last year’s winning connections and is worth including as he will be suited by a very strong pace having proven his stamina over further, while Siege of Troy is dropping in class having run in Listed and Group 3 contests. She’s exposed but a tongue tie could help here and I’m loth to throw her out.

Mount Atlas is probably too high in the weights, with a course and distance win coming off 15lb lower. He’ll run his race but might find at least two better at the wire. Stressfree has a win and a second from two runs over the trip this term and definitely merits his place, leaving Flight Leader of those drawn high. He has the draw and the run style, but his form is at shorter and I’m not sure he has the requisite stamina for the job.

 

Wildcards:

I’m never entirely sure about front runners from wide draws, but Almosh’her is unexposed and coming off a career best at the trip. Beaten by only one horse in his career, he’s widest of all in 22 and ticks enough boxes to make himself indispensable. Hand Of God came high, wide and handsome when winning over 1¼m here last year and should progress further. I’m not certain he wants 1½m but he was strong at the finish 12 months ago and merits respect as a previous Royal Ascot winner.

 

Verdict:

Perm the following in the exotic of your choice, depending on how risk-averse you are, included in order of preference:

French Duke
Stressfree
Almosh’her
War Rooms
Hand of God

 

4.20 THE CORONATION STAKES (CLASS 1) (Group 1)

Presented by Matt Bisogno

The traditional clash of the 1000 Guineas fillies from across Europe. With the Newmarket and Curragh winners, Desert Flower and Lake Victoria, both absent, it falls to promoted Pouliches scorer Zarigana to uphold the Classic form.

In that French 1000, she got the nod in a highly contentious stewards' decision from the syndicate-owned Charlie Fellowes-trained Shes Perfect. I've watched that replay from all angles countless times, and it genuinely felt like a stitch up to me for all that we know the French interference rules are far stricter (and, in my view, better) than ours. Anyway, to the form more generally. It's hard to say that that Classic race hasn't worked out because the disqualified winner and third and fifth all went up markedly in trip for the Prix de Diane. They made little impression there, shaping like none of them stayed. Still, Zarigana has won her last three races by a nose, a neck, and minus a nose! She looks one to take on at the prices.

Falakeyah is unbeaten in her two starts to date, both this season, and she's no sort of profile fit for a Coronation Stakes. But her form is a) good and b) very likely less than she's capable of. She laughed at Life Is Beautiful in a Listed race at Newmarket last time - that one was only two lengths behind the second in the Ribblesdale yesterday. While LIB stepped up a quarter mile, Falakeyah steps back the same distance and, on a turning track with a short straight like Ascot, which places more emphasis on speed than stamina unless they go a million, that's a niggle. Owen Burrows is highly selective and rarely places his horses in the wrong slot, but she again looks short given those reservations.

Another lightly raced unbeaten filly with form tie ins to Life Is Beautiful is Kon Tiki, trained by Jane Chapple-Hyam. Three from three so far, most recently in the mile Michael Seeley Memorial at York (Listed), she's got plenty more to offer but is a stone behind the highest rated on her performances thus far.

Ralph Beckett sends Chantilly Lace, lobbed in at the deep end in the manner of a Mexican cliff dive last time when going from Newbury novice to the 1000 Guineas. She ran a belter there to be two and a half lengths fifth, and has every right to make further progress here on just her third lifetime start.

January's juvenile form was strong - twice getting close to 1000 Guineas winner Desert Flower - but she flopped on her seasonal bow and comes here needing to show she's trained on. The fact Ballydoyle have myriad fillies to pick from and Ryan lands on her implies she had; if that's right, and you can forgive her Irish Guineas flop, she's a fair price.

Stablemate Exactly has a higher rating than January, courtesy of her length defeat by Zarigana in the French 1000; it must be noteworthy that Ryan has shunned this one having ridden her in Paris. Exactly's form profile does hint that a softer sward would be preferable.

Ollie Sangster's 2-3 from Newmarket's 1000 Guineas ran 6th and 11th in the Curragh follow up, and perhaps Flight is the one that will prefer these rapid conditions. It was good to firm when she was second at HQ and she ought again to finish in front of Simmering, who will be having her fourth run of the campaign.

At a massive price, Duty First took a step forward from Newmarket (9th, beaten 12 lengths) to the Curragh (4th, beaten less than five lengths) in two Classic outings, and had earlier won the Fred Darling on her first 2025 outing. Archie Watson has an excellent Royal Ascot record so this filly could be a small bit of value at 66/1.

I'm not sure the market has this race right yet, and I was not surprised that the three I think are over-priced (or three of the four excluding the massive outsider) are showing blue on the odds grids. Still, you can have 8/1 about January, 11/1 Chantilly Lace, and 16/1 Flight. 66/1 is the price for Duty First and she's getting a tiny speculative from me also.

Suggestion: Split a point or two on January at 8/1 and Chantilly Lace at 11/1. Split a penny win and place on Duty First at 66/1.

 

5.00 THE SANDRINGHAM STAKES (CLASS 2) (Handicap)

Presented by Dave Renham

A 3yo fillies handicap over the straight mile to finish my week’s work. I’ll start by taking a look at the 15-year trends, which are a bit sparse as far as strong patterns go.

 

Market Rank

Six wins for favourites and three for second favourites so despite having big fields generally (10 of the races with 20+ runners) the market has proved a good guide.

 

Weight Rank

Eight of the last 15 winners have come from the top four in the weights (inc. joint 4^th). This equates to 53% of the winners from just 20% of the total runners. Also, a further 15 were placed.

 

Position LTO

Eight of the last 15 winners won LTO. This equates to 53% of the winners from just 27% of the total runners.

 

Price LTO

14 of the last 15 winners returned an SP of 8/1 or less LTO (from 200 runners). A further 31 were placed. Horses priced 17/2 or bigger LTO have won just once from 128 runners (11 placed).

 

Draw

The number of runners each year has fluctuated massively between 15 and 30 runners so for my draw analysis I am doing what I did yesterday, using the Nick Mordin technique of ‘reversing’ the draw because the very highest draws are berthed next to the stands’ rail.  Hence, I am looking at how far the stall position has been away from the stands’ rail to hopefully give the most accurate draw history.

Looking at the last 15 years of this race, I have collated Percentage of Rivals Beaten figures (PRBs) for different sections of the draw. I have looked at the PRBs for all runners and then focused on those 33/1 or shorter in price, ignoring the complete rags. For the record, non-runners have been taken into account so the draw positions have been adjusted to allow for this. My findings are as follows:

 

Draw position in relation to stands rail	PRB (All)	PRB (33/1 or shorter)
1 to 5  stalls away	0.51	0.56
6 to 10  stalls away	0.52	0.57
11 to 15  stalls away	0.52	0.52
16 to 20  stalls away	0.42	0.42
21 or more stalls away	0.51	0.62

 

These figures give us a real conundrum as there is no clear pattern. It does seem that more fancied horses furthest away from the stands rail (the low draws) have performed the best.

 

Run Style

Now I am looking at the PRBs for each run style group based on the last 15 years. The splits are:

 

Run Style	PRB (All)	PRB (33/1 or shorter)
Led / disputed lead / led group	0.36	0.48
Prominent	0.44	0.46
Mid Division	0.49	0.52
Held up	0.59	0.62

 

A clear edge to hold up horses – a pattern we have seen before this week in the mile handicaps. In terms of wins we have seven wins for hold ups, six for mid pack runners and one apiece for prominent /early leaders.

 

Form Preview

I have four runners in this year's field that I particularly like:

Supermodel – Two wins from three starts including a comfortable success on seasonal reappearance at Nottingham. All three starts the horse has been held up which, as the trends show, has been a strong positive. Trainer William Haggas has not had the greatest record in handicaps at this meeting but in each of the last three years he has saddled one handicap winner, and I think Supermodel could make it four years running. Drawn 3.

Better Clover – She has run twice as Ascot, finishing eighth in the Queen Mary last year and then second beaten a neck a month later in the Group 3 Queen Margaret Stakes. She has run three times this year and shaped with promise in each, finishing fourth, second and third. The last run in France, in Group 2 company, was an eye-catching effort. William Buick was booked early for this one so I am guessing Eve Johnson Houghton  is very hopeful. In terms of run style Betty Clover tends to race mid pack or further back early which is ideal. Drawn 23 and second in the weights is a plus from the 15-year trends.

Silver Ghost – Is two from two this year with wins at Newmarket and Goodwood. She has gone up 8lb for that Goodwood win but that was impressive, especially considering that her draw may have been lower than ideal: she was in stall 6 and horses finishing second to seventh were drawn 12, 9, 16, 10, 13, 15; those finishing eighth to last were drawn 1, 5, 2, 7, 8, 4, 3. Drawn 20 here. In both of her wins this year she has been held up in rear early.

Miss Nightfall – She finished second to Silver Ghost at Goodwood. She was well beaten that day but would have finished closer if granted a clearer run between the one and the two pole. Drawn 28 and looks a lively outsider.

 

Suggestion

Try Supermodel to win at 8/1 & Betty Clover e/w at 12/1 (several bookies going six places again, Sky Bet seven)

 

5.35 THE KING EDWARD VII STAKES (CLASS 1) (Group 2)

Presented by Gavin Priestley

For the purposes of the trends we'll overlook the result from 2020 because, due to Covid, the Derby was actually run after Royal Ascot that year.

So, as is usual for this race we have a field made up of a couple of also rans from Epsom, a few that missed it for one reason or another, a number of lesser lights from the O'Brien stable, a couple of winners stepping up from novice company, and a few trainers tilting at windmills hoping to pick up some black type and place money.

Traditionally sandwiched in the middle of the Epsom and Irish Derby's, the 'Ascot Derby' is a poor shadow of either of those Group 1's and the Epsom winner hasn't shown up here in a very long time. However, the Epsom second did run, and win, in 2023. In fact, 5 of the last 8 winners had their last start at Epsom where they had finished 2nd, 3rd, 5th and 10th (twice).

This year we have just two runners from the Derby taking part, Nightwalker and Green Storm, neither of whom looked like getting competitive at Epsom. The pair had met previously when a distant 3rd and 4th in the Fielden Stakes at Newmarket back in April with Nightwalker doing best there but it was Green Storm who won their private battle at Epsom when finishing 7th. As a 2yo Green Storm had finished within 2 lengths of the likely favourite here, Amiloc, in a Kempton maiden and was 1 1/2 length behind the Derby 3rd Tennessee Stud in a French Group 1 at the back end of last season.

Of the two that ran in the Derby I'd side with Green Storm to do the best and he does look a pretty big price if able to reproduce some of that 2yo form. He hasn't managed it yet but the stable remain convinced he's still got it in him and this is nowhere near as competitive as that headline G1. I'd expect him to seriously outrun his current 40/1 odds and I'll probably have a little side bet on him.

The trends say we need a run as a 2yo, 1-3 seasonal runs, 2-7 career starts and the most recent within the last 12-56 days in a class 1-3 race with a top four finish (unless it was the Epsom Derby). All of the last nine winners were rated 103+ and interestingly, 13 of the last 17 winners had yet to win a Group race. It also hasn't paid to get too fancy in this race recently with all of the last 7 non-Covid renewals having gone to horses at 6/1 or under from the top three in the betting.

Which leads me to the selection. I'm going to make my main bet another horse that looks majorly overpriced. In fact, his odds look so wrong it's making me think I've missed something because in my mind there is no way this horse should be 14/1 on what we've seen from him so far this Season. I'm expecting him to be gambled on and go off at single figure odds.

CONVERGENT has had three races, two novice races at Redcar that have worked out very well with multiple winners coming out of both races, and the Group 3 Chester Vase where he ran 3rd to the Aidan O'Brien trained Lambourn: the same Lambourn that skated home in the Derby where he beat the Chester Vase second Lazy Griff. Not only have the front two from that race confirmed the form in the best possible way, the 15 length 6th from the race has also come out and won a Group 3 since. 14/1 is massive for a horse who ticks the boxes, has the ideal profile for this race and has top form to back it up. Clifford Lee is back onboard, who has a 100% 2-2 record on him, and the trainer has been knocking on the door with a few of his runners this week. Everything is in place for a big run... Non-runner, aaaargh

SELECTION: CONVERGENT 1pt EW 14/1 (Paddypower) Small each way on Green Storm at 40/1

6.10 THE PALACE OF HOLYROODHOUSE STAKES (CLASS 2) (Handicap)

Presented by David Massey

I’ve enjoyed doing these write-ups for Geegeez this week but there’s not been a lot of big-priced ones that I’ve fancied for readers to get stuck into. Well, it might have taken until Friday, but I’ve found three I like and if I can bag the winner from them, I’m hopeful I might get called back to have another go next year… [you're in! - Ed.]

I started by looking at Redorange, trained by Clive Cox, as he’s a gelding I’ve been keen on since I saw him win at Yarmouth last year. He won well that day, and I decided he’d be a horse I’d follow this year. I wasn’t the only one, as he was backed off the boards to win at Chester on his second start of the season, the 9-4 in the morning evaporating to just 11-10 at the off. Chester suited him down to the ground; in greyhound parlance, quickly away, early pace, led late on, always doing enough. 

I wonder whether Ascot will suit him as well, and in any case let’s revisit Redorange’s first run of the year at Sandown where he still ran well but only finished third. In front of him that day in second was Brosay, who finished off well and, whilst not an unlucky loser, jumping the path late on certainly didn’t help his cause. He finished ¾ length in front of Redorange there, yet is 7lb better in here, and is over twice the price. That, to me, makes no sense, and given Ascot should suit, and the fast ground will hold no fears, at 20-1 and bigger he heads up my list. 

The other two both come from the Queen Mary last year, and both look overpriced, given Royal Ascot form - much like Cheltenham Festival form it often translates well from year to year. 

Karl Burke’s Miss Lamai finished fourth to Leovanni last year, and the theory was that she’d be a speedy 2yo and no more. To be fair to her she was highly tried after that, taking in a couple of Grade 3s in France and, whilst not disgraced in either, it did look as if that might be her lot. 

However, on her latest start, in the Westow Stakes at York, she took a good step forward running on in taking style to finish third to the useful Tropical Storm and in front of good sorts like Aesterius and Mr Lightside. It would appear, on that, she’s not done yet, and I can see this test suiting her well. We know she acts on fast ground at Ascot so that’s not a concern, and with the handicapper leaving her alone after York when he could have very easily given her another couple of pounds, 25-1 looks a price I can get involved with. 

And finally… We come to the 2024 Queen Mary third Maw Lam. Now, at first glance she’s a harder one to love, as her form this year hasn’t been as good as it was last year; but I think you can find excuses - not that she needs one for her seasonal reappearance, a fifth in the Fred Darling, a perfectly acceptable effort. At Cork next time, she didn’t get the best of runs as she came from the rear but still finished sixth, and at Haydock last time she ran too free, and was a spent force late. With Jack Nicholls taking a useful 7lb off, she looks on a fair mark and, like Miss Lamai, we know these conditions suit her well. 40/1? Yep, add her to the shortlist…

Three against the field: Brosay 22/1, Miss Lamai 18/1, Maw Lam 40/1