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Nine Runners To Consider In Saturday’s Big Sprints At Ayr

18 September 2020/in Big Race Previews, Horse Racing Blog/by samdarby

The two big handicaps on Saturday both take place at Ayr over 6f within 70 minutes of each other. With a total of 50 horses set to go to post across both the Ayr Gold Cup and Ayr Silver Cup picking winners, or even places, is not going to be easy.

I’ll be providing a shortlist of horses that have strong or hot form and are worth consideration for both races. In races like this there are always plenty of runners that have been laid out for the race so recent form isn’t necessarily the be all and end all but hopefully we’ll see some of these run well.

Ayr 6f Draw and Pace

A lot is always made of the draw in these cavalry charges but can we rule any runners out, or give extra consideration to others, based solely on the draw?

Looking at 16+ runner handicaps run at Ayr since 2009 on ground ranging from soft all the way up to good to firm, low draws have comfortably held the edge across all metrics.

The data offers some conflicting figures about whether middle is preferred to high or vice versa. It seems if you are drawn high, a particular area of the high draws and a certain run style is of great advantage.

High drawn front runners do particularly well. In fact in terms of PRB (percentage of rivals beaten) the most efficient and effective combination is high draw and speed. Prominent racers seem to have the same chance wherever they are drawn and then the more a horse is held up, the more it is an advantage to be drawn low.

It’s worth noting that all horses drawn in the top third of the draw contribute to the high drawn data. However if we look at individual draw data we see some quite revealing stats.

The above shows that as far as PRB is concerned, the two highest stalls are way out ahead, albeit with limited data, whilst the remaining high stalls are all amongst the worst for PRB. So it seems a very high draw is fine, or even advantageous, whereas a middle to high draw can be a big disadvantage.

Looking at these races run on just good to soft ground gives us less data but hopefully a further insight into how the bias will be this weekend.

No wins for the middle stalls looks a bit misleading here as the place percentages and PRB both confirm a middle draw can be slightly preferable to a low draw.

The PRB heat map on good to soft ground once again shows that if you are drawn high you almost certainly need to be on the pace. If you are drawn low then it is potentially more of an advantage to be held up. The runners will probably split into two groups and the far side group will almost certainly be bigger so it stands to reason that those held up from a low draw get a decent pace to aim at and are therefore slightly advantaged.

If I had the pick of the draw and didn’t have an out and out front runner I’d probably choose a draw somewhere between 7 and 14. Horses can run well from low, middle and high stalls here though and a ‘better’ draw should only be seen as an advantage of perhaps a few lbs rather than a guarantee of victory.

Ayr Silver Cup – 2.30pm

King’s Lynn

It’s easy to see why he’s been installed as the 4/1 favourite here. He won a Doncaster sales race last year as a 2yo beating Repartee and Toro Strike (both since rated in triple figures).

Of more relevance is his form this season. He’s had just the one start, a month ago, in a novice event. He was defeated by 2.5 lengths when sent off odds on which on the face of it is disappointing. However the winner of the race has since won at listed level and is now rated 111 so for King’s Lynn to get within 2.5 lengths, in receipt of 2lb but conceding race fitness reads well for a horse now running in a handicap off 94. Full Authority was 4.5 lengths behind King’s Lynn in that race, also giving the Andrew Balding runner 2lbs, and he has gone close in two handicaps since off 87 which again suggests King’s Lynn’s effort was worthy of a mark north of 94.

His draw in stall 6 looks near perfect and even if just reproducing his last run he should go close. Add in some improvement for that first run of the season and the fact he’s still had just three starts and he’s tempting, even at prohibitive odds.

Rathbone

At around 12/1 he looks a solid each way bet based on his form at this distance this season. In June he finished 3^rd to Glen Shiel and Tabdeed at Newcastle and both those runners have gone on to win Group 3 races recently. Back in 4^th was Treacherous who won his next two starts in handicap company. Remarkably he gets to run off the same mark of 90 here despite also finishing runner up at Ascot last time out, beaten just a head.

He’s drawn in stall 22 and is often held up so that does look a big negative based on past draw data. Maybe the Bronze Cup will show this to not be the negative the data suggests.

Aplomb

This runner tends to be overbet but an inconsistent, disappointing season means he is finally becoming a working man’s price (as big as 18/1 at the time of writing). For his entire career he has looked in need of 6f and cut in the ground. Last year when he got those conditions his form was 21120, the last run was a very rare poor run at the end of a long season. He’d probably had enough at that point.

This season started off promisingly. He was a running on 5^th over an inadequate 5f on fast ground on seasonal debut (1^st, 3^rd, 4^th, 6^th and 7^th all at least runner up since). He’s now 3lb lower. Off the back of that run he was sent off near favourite for the Silver Wokingham but he found drying ground against him and ran a respectable 7^th. All runs since have come at less than 6f.

The bad news is he is 5lbs wrong here compared to his current, falling mark. He is still well handicapped on old form though and under optimum conditions from stall 10 he could outrun his odds.

Magical Spirit

It’s surprising to see this horse available at 28/1 for this. He does have a bit of an in and out profile but he has run well in both turf starts this season and seemed to benefit from a wind op last time out when a running on 4^th at Haydock in deep ground. The 3^rd that day, Danzeno, went close to winning the Portland Handicap on his next start and Magical Spirit was only half a length behind Danzeno on this occasion. He’s won at 6f before and the return to this trip should suit.

Show Me Show Me

The biggest question mark for this one, and probably the only reason he’s available at 33/1, is the trip. He should be well handicapped here based on his Royal Ascot 8^th in which the 1^st, 2^nd and 7^th have all won since and many others have run well in defeat. He’s now 7lbs lower despite running okay and being better than the bare form on his last two starts.

This is a step back up to 6f, which he hasn’t convinced at yet in three starts. However two of those came as a 2yo and the one run at this distance as a 3yo came in a Group 3 for which he was sent off 28/1 and at that time Richard Fahey’s runners were mostly needing, or improving for their first runs of the season. He has often been outpaced at the half way point over 5f so there is hope he can stay this fair and from stall 4 he should run well if staying.

Ayr Gold Cup – 3.40pm

Staxton

Last two wins have come at Ripon, where he tends to do well, and both races have worked out nicely. The first of those victories saw him beat a dual subsequent winner whilst the 4^th has finished runner up on both starts since and the 5^th has won since. Five winners have emerged from his latest win including the 3^rd and the 4^th. He’s another 6lbs higher and hasn’t performed brilliantly here for the past two years but he’s better handicapped than the last two attempts and he does hold Mr Lupton (favourite at the time of writing) on the bare form of their recent meeting too and has a decent draw in the middle.

Mr Lupton

He was 3^rd to Staxton on his penultimate start in that aforementioned warm race and went two places better to win a big field Curragh sprint next time out. Mr Lupton is 1lb better off with Staxton for a 0.75 length loss and now has the 5lb claim of Billy Garritty so has claims of reversing placings over this different course. Stall 11 looks pretty much perfect for him.

Barbill

A winner on his seasonal debut in a race that couldn’t be much hotter. The 2^nd was runner up in the Stewards’ Cup on his next run at the distance, the 3^rd and 4^th have both won twice since and the 5^th has also won since.

He’s now 10lbs higher, which makes life a lot more difficult but the 3^rd is now rated a stone higher and the 4^th won easily last week off a 6lb higher mark so it’s not beyond him, especially as he was a running on 6^th in the Portland Handicap a week ago after being badly hampered at the start of the race.

From stall 12 he appears to have an excellent chance here.

Bungee Jump

This runner has almost certainly lost his form based on his last two runs but it’s interesting that this front runner is drawn in the second highest stall here – an angle that has done well in the past. On his seasonal debut he beat subsequent winners into 2^nd and 3^rd and he held his form well for his next two starts. He’s gone up 8lbs in the ratings this season but if he returns to form and if front running on the near side rail is an advantage (neither are guaranteed) he’d surely have as much chance as anything so 50/1 perhaps underestimates him, for all he is a very risky proposition.

Final Thoughts

Two very difficult races but if given two selections in each race I'd go for King's Lynn and Magical Spirit in the Silver Cup and then Barbill and Mr Lupton in the Gold Cup. The best bet between the two races is potentially Barbill each way at 25/1 (price correct as of Friday afternoon) given pretty much everything appears to be in his favour here.

Saturday TV Trends Sat TV Trends: 19th Sept 2020

18 September 2020/in Racing Pointers, Trends/by Andy Newton

It’s Ayr Gold Cup day at the Scottish venue this Saturday, while the ITV cameras are also heading to Newbury for their Dubai Duty Free Day – We’ve 8 LIVE races in total and we’ve got it all covered with all the key trends for each race, plus our verdict.

AYR Horse Racing Trends (ITV4/RacingTV)

1.55 – Jordan Electrics Doonside Cup Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 (3yo+) 1m2f ITV

9/9 – Didn’t win last time out
8/9 – Yet to race at Ayr
8/9 – Won over 1m2f or more
8/9 – Winners from stalls 8 or lower
8/9 – Rated between 101 and 111
8/9 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
7/9 – Aged 4 or older
7/9 – Won 3 or more times before
6/9 – Irish bred
6/9 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
3/9 – Trained by Andrew Balding
3/9 – Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor
2/9 – Ridden by Danny Tudhope
2/9 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 9/2

2.30 – QTS Ayr Silver Cup (Handicap) Cl2 6f ITV4

17/17 – Carried 8-11 or more
15/17 – Aged 5 or younger
15/17 – Previous winners over 6f
14/17 – Winning distance 1 length or less
13/17 – Had raced at Ayr before (5 won)
13/17 – Had 5 or more runs that season
13/17 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
13/17 – Carried 9-0 or more
11/17 - Had either 2 or 3 career wins to their name
10/17 – Finished 5^th or better last time out
10/17 – Unplaced favourites
8/17 – The first 4 home all returned a double-figure price
4/17 – Won last time out
3/17 – Trained by Richard Fahey
3/17 – Drawn in stalls 8 to 20 (inc) i.e horses drawn either high or low have done best
3/17 – Winning Favourites
0/17 – Filly or mare winners
Golden Apollo (12/1) won the race in 2019
Snazzy Jazzy (11/1) won the race in 2018
Tatlisu won the race in 2015
Huntsmans Close won the race in 2014

3.05 – Scotty Brand Firth Of Clyde Stakes (Group 3) (for The Ayrshire Agricultural Challenge Cup) Cl1 6f ITV4

15/17 – Finished 4^th or better last time out
15/17 – Had never raced at Ayr before
14/17 – Previous winners over 6f
13/17 – Had won once or two times before
13/17 – Winning distance 1 length or further
13/17 – Had 3 or more runs that season
12/17 – Drawn in stall 10 or lower
12/17 – Won by a Jan, Feb or March foal
10/17 – Placed favourites
8/17 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
7/17 – Won last time out
3/17 – Ran at Doncaster last time out
3/17 – Trained by Bryan Smart
3/17 – Winning favourites

3.40 – QTS Ayr Gold Cup (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 6f ITV4

19/19 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
18/19 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
16/19 – Had 3 or more wins to their name
14/19 – Had won over 6f before
14/19 – Failed to win their last race
13/19 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
12/19 – Rated 90-101
12/19 – Carried 9-1 or more
12/19 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
12/19 – Came from a double-figure stall
11/19 – Had 7 or more runs that season
11/19 – Unplaced favourites
10/19 – Winning distance 1 length or less
9/19 – Had raced at Ayr before
9/19 – Ran at either Doncaster (3), Goodwood (3) or Haydock (3) last time out
4/19 – Trained by Kevin Ryan
2/19 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
2/19 – Winning favourites (3 winning favs since 1980)
0/19 – Filly or mare winners
10 of the last 11 winners came from stalls 8 or higher (4 of the last 15 winners came from stall 8)
Since 1980 just five winners aged 6 or older
The last horse to win back-to-back races was Heronsiea in 1930/31
The average winning SP in the last 18 years is 15/1
Note: The 2018 renewal was a dead-heat

NEWBURY Horse Racing Trends (ITV4/RacingTV)

1.40 - Dubai International Airport World Trophy (Group 3) Cl1 5f34y ITV4

17/18 – Raced four or more times that season
16/18 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
15/18 – Priced 9/1 or shorter
15/18 – Winners from stall 5 or higher
15/18 – Won a Listed or Group race before
14/18 – Won over 5f previously
13/18 - Aged 5 or younger
13/18 – Won 4 or more times
12/18 – Placed in the top 3 in their last race
8/18 – Previous Group race winners
6/18 – Ran at the Curragh last time out (inc 3 of last 7 winners)
6/18 – Won their last race
6/18 – Favourites
5/18 – Mare winners
Maid In India (12/1) won the race in 2019
Mr Lupton (11/4 fav) won the race in 2018

2.15 – Dubai Duty Free Handicap Cl2 (3yo+ 0-105) 1m2f ITV

10/10 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
9/10 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
9/10 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
9/10 – Won over 1m2f or further before
9/10 – Carried 9-2 or less in weight
8/10 – Won 3 or 4 times
8/10 – Placed in the top 5 last time out
7/10 – Drawn 8 or lower
6/10 – Rated between 92 and 96 (inc)
4/10 – Winning favourites
4/10 – Winners from stalls 1 (2) or 13 (2)
4/10 – Had run at Newbury before
4/10 – Won last time out
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 9/1

2.50 –Dubai Duty Free Legacy Cup Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 1m3f5y ITV4

18/18 – Won over 1m2f (or further) previously
17/18 – Priced 9/1 or less
14/18 – Aged 5 or younger
14/18 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
14/18 – Had won at Listed or better class previously
13/18 – Had 4 or more career wins
11/18 – Favourites placed
11/18 – Raced at Newbury before
9/18 – Had won a Group race before
8/18 – Raced 5 or more times that season
7/18 – Won their last race
4/18 – Favourites that won
4/18 – Trained by David Simcock (including 4 of last 5 runnings)
3/18 – Raced at York last time
2/18 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/18 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
Desert Encounter (9/4) won the race in 2019 and 2017

3.25 – Dubai Duty Free Mill Reef Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 6f8y ITV4

14/18 – Won from draw 5 or lower
14/18 – Raced 3 or more times
15/18 – Priced 5/1 or shorter
13/18 – Won over 6f previously
13/18 – Favourites placed
12/18 – Foaled in March or later
10/18 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
9/18 – Favourites (or joint) to win
8/18 – Won exactly two races before
7/18 – Won by an April foal
5/18 – Raced at Doncaster last time out
5/18 – Won their previous race
4/18 – Ran in the Gimcrack last time out (York)
2/18 – Trained by Richard Hannon
2/18 – Trained by Karl Burke
2/18 – Trained by Richard Fahey
0/18 – Filly winners

Do The Bookies Have The Wrong 3yo Favourites In The Doncaster Opener?

11 September 2020/in Big Race Previews, Horse Racing Blog, Racing Pointers/by samdarby

The Portland Handicap was the obvious race to cover for Saturday but it would be very much a case of throwing a few darts at that race and you could feasibly back a horse that is beaten half a length and it could still be unplaced so instead I’m going to cover the 1.15 at Doncaster which gets underway before the ITV cameras begin rolling at Doncaster.

This is a mile handicap for 3yos and above and with twelve runners set to go to post it will hopefully be a lot easier to find the winner than the Portland Handicap later on in the card. Once again I’ll be mostly concentrating on ‘hot form’, a deeper dive into the strength of each horse’s form to date.

The Runners

King Ottaker

Mostly contested group races so far and only wins to date have been on soft ground. Arguably his best run to date was in the Hampton Court Stakes at Royal Ascot last year and he hasn’t run particularly well in all three runs this season, all of which were over 10f on softer ground. It would be a surprise if he was competitive here off 102 back at a mile on drying ground.

Teston

Started the season off with a surprise 6 length win over course and distance at 20/1 and has raced twice in France since. That win was admittedly impressive but he beat very little that day with thirty-six runs from those in behind since and just six places (no wins). He’s gone up 11lbs for that victory and he probably left his chance of further handicap sucess this season behind with that victory and the inevitable hike in the weights that followed it.

Another Touch

Put together a hat trick of wins on the all weather over the winter but has since found a triple figure rating beyond him. He’s now dropped to a mark of 98, his highest winning rating on turf, but he needs to return to form having been beaten 10 lengths at York last time out off a 5lb higher mark when sent off 100/1. That race was a hot contest to be fair with the 2^nd filling the same spot in a Group 2 next time, the 3^rd winning a Group 3 on his next start and the 6^th winning a handicap easily on his next run. The 8^th also franked the form with a 2^nd next time but Another Touch was 6 lengths behind even that runner so can’t be considered similarly well handicapped.

Firmanent

Was a half a length behind Another Touch last time out at his beloved York, the first below par run he’s ever put in at that venue. His very best form seems to have come at York but he was 2^nd at Meydan earlier this year over this distance off a 1lb higher mark so isn’t hopelessly handicapped at other courses.

He’s also 1lb lower than his 4^th at Newcastle in June in a race that has worked out supremely well.

The winner of that race, Sir Busker, has since gone up 19lbs in the ratings, the runner up, Dark Vision, has risen 12lbs. Meanwhile the 3^rd, Fifth Position, won his next start and is now 5lbs higher. Firmanent was just 0.75 lengths behind Fifth Position so is on a workable mark having dropped 1lb since then.

His last run is a worry as it was a rare blip but it’s worth noting that was Sean Kirrane’s first ride on the horse and he was ridden more prominently than usual which might help explain things. If none the worse for that effort he could run well here.

Magical Morning

Beaten over 8 lengths on his penultimate start and over 16 lengths on his latest run but represents Gosden/Dettori so sure to have some supporters. He won a novice stakes impressively on seasonal debut but a 4 length beating of Mayfair Pompette (struggling in handicaps off 74) in receipt of 6lbs isn’t worthy of a handicap rating of 97 here. He followed that up with another novice win here, over course and distance. On that occasion he was a length ahead of Dreamloper, giving her 12lbs, and she’s since won off 85 which helps explain Magical Morning’s lofty rating.

His first poor run came on rain softened ground at Newmarket in a listed race which gives him an excuse for that and his next flop came on his first try over 10f at Goodwood. He did run like a non stayer that day but didn’t run like a horse ready to strike when back in trip.

This handicap mark isn’t beyond him based on his sole run at this venue and perhaps the return here could revive his fortunes and the drop back in trip should definitely suit but he still needs to prove his well being.

Misty Grey

One of two runners for Mark Johnston. He made a belated seasonal debut just a week ago at Kempton, keeping on well in what is likely to turn out to be a strong race. He met some trouble early in the straight and shaped as though he’d definitely improve for the run. He was ridden closer to the pace last year so the fact that he was held up in last at Kempton suggests that run was definitely designed to bring him on.

As is often the case with one from this stable, he had a busy juvenile campaign with nine runs and he was highly tried (less than 5 lengths behind Golden Horde in the Richmond Stakes at Goodwood).

He’s run at Doncaster before, finishing a nose behind Lazuli in a 3 runner conditions race. That runner has scored easily at listed level this season whilst Brad The Brief, 1.75 lengths back in 3^rd, has also won a listed race this season. He looks well enough handicapped to win a race this season and is likely to be seen to better effect ridden closer to the pace this time.

Aweedram

Returned in good form this season after losing his way last year. His 2^nd to Alternative Fact at Haydock in July off a 5lb lower mark has been well enough advertised since with every runner from the first 6 who has run since at least placing subsequently.

He’s not the most straight forward though, has shown his best form on softer ground and is having his first run for Kevin Frost having left Alan King since his last run. He’ll be of more interest later in the season back on softer ground.

Matthew Flinders

The most lightly raced contender in this field, he was a fairly warm order dropping back to a mile last time out at Sandown and ran well enough in 3rd, beaten less than a length. He raced a bit wider than ideal on that occasion but didn’t seem to have any obvious excuses. Grove Ferry, 5^th that day, has since finished 3^rd but did look as though he’d improve for the run at Sandown and a similar comment applies to Raaeq (a head in front of Matthew Flinders last time) who won comfortably on Friday with the better ground suiting when successful.

He’s up 2lbs and entitled to be competitive once again with the form of his last race beginning to work out well but both of the runners who have boosted the form were entitled to improve a fair bit on their next starts. He is clearly not badly handicapped but I do have a feeling he is only fairly handicapped. It's not a shock that he's the early favourite but he doesn't look a value play.

Overwrite

He’s been fairly consistent all season, running as though this mile trip is his optimum when not quite getting home in four attempts over further. His mile form stands up pretty well, he lost a class 2 handicap to Tempus in the stewards’ room in August and Tempus has come out and won again since. His limitations were slightly exposed on his next start in a big field of unexposed 3yos at York when 6^th, 4.25 lengths behind La Trinidad who reopposes here.

He’d be perfectly entitled to finish around 3^rd or 4^th here but no reason why he should reverse the form with La Trinidad and vulnerable for win purposes once again racing 7lbs higher than his last win.

Diocles Of Rome

Bit of an eyecatcher here over a furlong shorter last time out on seasonal debut in a decent race, being outpaced when a slow early gallop lifted before staying on really well late on. The winner, just 0.75 lengths in front of him that day, finished a close 2^nd next time off a 2lb higher mark.

Ghlayoon, 2^nd in that race, was a better than the bare result 3^rd on Friday and Breanski (6^th) finished 3^rd here this week when probably inconvenienced by a drop back in trip on that occasion. So whilst this race hasn’t thrown up subsequent winners yet, those that have run have each emerged as pretty much the best horse in their respective races.

This is his first run over a mile in over 2 years and it’s impossible to say if all his improvement since has come because he dropped back in trip or because he was gelded ahead of that drop back in trip. On the face of it he shaped as if needing further last time but the early gallop was steady that day and given he can be keen in his races he’d be a safer bet in a well run 7f.

Other than his recent close 5^th here he previously won by 2 lengths at Doncaster so clearly goes well at the track.

Sandret

After winning on his sole appearance at this track, over 2f further, he’s largely struggled.. He’s been tried over 12f this season (failed to stay) and now has his first run over a mile in 13 months.

The winner of his last race, when he was beaten over 5 lengths into 5^th, has remarkably since won a Group 1 (Audarya). It would be best not to take that literally and instead look what the rest of the field have done since. The 3^rd, What’s The Story, ran okay back at his favoured York whilst the 4^th, Dark Jedi, has finished runner up in two good races since. Sandret was 2.5 lengths behind Dark Jedi though and arguably the best gauge of his handicap mark is Cockalorum who was a short head behind him and has run twice since. Cockalorum finished 4^th on both subsequent starts running pretty well in a big York handicap before not being quite in the same form next time out.

Sandret’s last run was a fairly good one, certainly better than it looked, and a 2lb drop gives him half a chance of being competitive at a price (around 16/1 at the time of writing). His last run at a mile was off a 5lb lower mark and he was beaten on the nod by a nose by Romola who has since rated a stone higher so he’s certainly not a no hoper, but he’ll need a strong pace to aim at.

La Trinidad

An improved performer at 3 having shown very little last year as a juvenile. He won comfortably over 8.5f on his seasonal debut and the horse to get closest to him on that day and have run since was Phoenix Approach who won two runs later. He followed that win up with an easy 5 length win here at Doncaster (7f), a victory that saw him rise 12lbs in the handicap. The 3^rd from that race has won twice since but there have been a fair few poor efforts too.

He remained at 7f at York on his next two starts, presumably finding good to soft ground too testing on the first of those when fairly well beaten before getting within 2 lengths of Brunch back on faster ground.

Brunch, Black Caspian and La Trinidad all met again next time out at York over a mile, finishing in the exact same placings as they did over 7f previously. Jumaira Bay ran to form next time winning a maiden (2^nd in that maiden came out and won by 8 lengths) so the form of these runners stacks up. Even the 7^th , 8^th,and 9th have both come out and placed.

You could argue that the form of La Trinidad took a few knocks on Thursday. Jumaira Bay and Black Caspian both ran relatively poorly but Jumaira Bay was sporting first time headgear that looked likely to not suit and all of Black Caspian’s best form has been at York. Also Eastern World, who was 2.5 lengths behind La Trinidad over a mile at York, ran poorly but he too had first time headgear on and was dropping back a furlong so it’s understandable he didn’t run to form. It’s fair to say this isn’t ideal for La Trinidad but with the valid excuses it’s not a major concern either.

La Trinidad was the one to take out of the mile handicap won by Brunch at York. He was held up in last and denied a run from 2.5f out to 1.5f out but he flew once in the clear and is probably unlucky not to be unbeaten over further than 7f this season. He’s up 4lbs for that effort and it would be no surprise to see similar hold up tactics employed again, but probably with more success over this straight mile in a smaller field.

Draw and Pace

With only 12 runners here the draw isn’t going to completely make or break any of them.

All metrics point towards a middle draw being advantaged but a low draw not being far off. High drawn runners have performed really poorly on good ground over a mile in this sort of field size. Jockeys seem to have preferred to go near side in a lot of races this week when possible but you get similar data regarding high being a disadvantage on both good to firm ground and good to soft ground so I’m inclined to think a middle draw is definitely going to be ideal.

A few runners in this race are going to want a decent pace to aim at so let’s check out a pace map.

There is every chance Teston and Overwrite take each other on up front. There is also a good chance that Misty Grey is ridden much closer to the pace this time, he led on three of his final five runs last season, but you’d assume Mark Johnston wouldn’t want both his runners cutting each other’s throats. Magical Morning’s best form has also come when on or near the pace so expect to see him close up.

With most of the pace drawn central they’ll almost certainly elect to come up the centre of the track.

Verdict

You could make some sort of case for many. Magical Morning has too many question marks and I expected much bigger than 7/2 on him so he looks no value at all. I respect Matthew Flinders but also suspect he isn’t as well handicapped as many think he is so I’m going to put a line through him too. If Matthew Flinders is successful be sure to put First Winter and Zegalo into your tracker as both were close up in his last race.

There are some trip question marks over Diocles Of Rome and Sandret. Don’t be surprised if the latter massively outruns his odds but in a race with some solid contenders both are too risky. Diocles will remain of interest over 7f.

Overwrite is very much exposed and very vulnerable for win purposes. His stable mate Misty Grey was ridden to pick up the pieces last time and whilst he’s of some interest, this may be too strong a race for him. Look out for that runner in a slightly less competitive contest or if his Kempton run begins to work out.

That leaves La Trinidad and Firmanent as most interesting. Firmanent needs to bounce back from a rare poor run but reverting to hold up tactics here should help. The very early 25/1 offered on him looked far too big and even the 20/1 available at the time of writing looks a mistake.

Firmanent finishes 2^nd twice as often as he wins though and he’s never won a handicap away from York so whilst he is likely to run well in defeat, it is La Trinadad who is drawn in the centre stall who gets the vote. He hasn’t run a bad race on ground that is good or better this season, those runs have all worked out pretty well and he should probably be undefeated at this distance this season. He has a course win to his name and should definitely rate higher this season. At an early 11/2 he looks a very fair each way bet in this contest.

Speed May Be Favoured In Tough Doncaster Handicap

10 September 2020/in Big Race Previews, Racing Pointers/by samdarby

The 2.10 at Doncaster on Friday is an interesting race not just because there are some lightly raced, progressive types on show. This race will be a rare run over 6.5f so let’s first see whether some of the more recent winners of this race were more 6f types or more comfortable over 7f.

2019 – Enjazaat – Thirteen of his fourteen races were over 6f, this 6.5f distance was the furthest distance he went.
2018 – Von Blucher – Won handicaps over a mile, 7f and this 6.5f trip but was never successful in nine races over shorter (needed every inch of this trip to get up).
2017 – Amazour – Other than a win at this trip, he also won three times at 6f and three times at 7f so seemed equally effective at both trips.
2016 – Normandy Barriere – Had placed form at 7f but this 6.5f trip was the furthest he won over and five of his six wins came at 6f.
2015 – Hoof It – Poor in all five runs at 7f or further and other than winning at this trip, all ten of his other wins came at 6f or shorter.
2014 – Badr Al Badoor – Unsuccessful in five runs over 7f (did place though) and her three other wins came at 6f.
2013 – Sir Reginald – Unsuccessful in seventeen runs over further than 6.5f and his two other wins came at 6f (also had a much better place ratio at 6f compared to 7f).
2012 – Cape Classic – Had some decent placed form at 7f but failed to win at that distance in ten attempts whereas he had a 50% strike rate at shorter than 7f.
2011 – Sirius Prospect – Won over as far as a mile but also had five wins over this distance of 6.5f or shorter.
2010 – Irish Heartbeat – Won twice over a mile (no wins over 7f) but had also won over 5f the previous season.

The above seems to show that this race rides more like a 6f race than a 7f race with speed over shorter a valuable asset for potential winners.

The Runners

Shabaaby

He’s found himself in no man’s land with his rating, not well enough handicapped for the big handicaps and not good enough to win at listed or Group 3 level. He was well beaten in a Newbury handicap two starts ago where only one winner has emerged from seventeen runs, and that was on a different surface. So off just a 3lb lower mark he’d have to massively up his game to be involved here.

Chiefofchiefs

A surprise winner of the Silver Wokingham this season at Ascot on his first start at 6f. He ran at Ascot again over 7f on his most recent start but even if you go all the way back to 16^th place in that race, only one winner has emerged from twenty-five runs and that came at a different distance. He’s always struggled off this sort of mark and is likely to find many of these too quick.

Byline

Not the most consistent profile but he has some decent form to his name. When winning his maiden he gave 5lbs and a 3.5 length beating to Dark Regard, now rated 88, so a mark of 95 may not be beyond him. On his most recent win, off an 8lb lower mark, he beat a subsequent winner (Musicality who reopposes here) by 2.75 lengths so he has some good recent form in the book too.

His latest flop came on his first go on soft ground, the race in which Musicality came out and won. He has won on good to soft before but it’s possible the very soft ground was against him that day.

On his seasonal debut he was 3^rd in a race that has worked out pretty well.

The winner of that race has since won at listed level, the runner up was 2^nd again next time and the 4^th has run well in defeat since.

Musicality

His form ties in quite closely with Byline. That rival gave Musicality 1lb and a 2.75 length beating on good to firm ground before Musicality beat Byline by 7 lengths in receipt of 8lbs on soft ground when Byline didn’t seem to run to form.

Musicality has a much more consistent profile than Byline and more scope for improvement having never been out the first two in just four starts. He has now won on both soft ground and good to firm so looks likely to give his running once again.

Now getting 1lb once again from Byline, he’s no guarantee to beat that runner if Byline can bounce back but that’s obviously no certainty, even on better ground here.

Tranchee

Finding the right distance for this runner has proved a challenge in the past as he’s been tried over as far as 10f but for current connections he has raced solely at 7f. He’s yet to finish out of the first two for David Loughnane when completing, winning his debut for the trainer before unseating the jockey when exiting the stalls on his following start. He’s finished runner up on two runs since.

His last run came just a week ago so no runners have been able to show the strength of that form since but his previous race has been working out okay.

Tranchee himself gave the form a boost with his follow up 2^nd whilst the 3^rd finished in the same position again next time in a similar race and the 7^th, Cold Stare, won next time out.

He’s yet to run at shorter than 7f but he’s got plenty of speed and has looked worth a try over a stiff 6f so this could end up being ideal. It’s worth noting that his best form seems to have come on soft ground or artificial surfaces but he’s had few goes on faster ground and is bred to improve for it compared to soft. The sire’s offspring have a 10% strike rate on soft (-22.15 LSP) compared to 17.87% on good to firm (0.69 LSP).

Manigordo

This 3yo has largely been campaigned over 7f, trying shorter just once when competing over this course and distance at this meeting last year in the big field sales race. He looked as if he’d prefer a bit further that day so it is no surprise he’s been kept to further since.

He has been well enough beaten on his last two starts at handicap level, the latest coming in an okay race with plenty of places since but no winners from seven runs. He only beat one runner that day though and almost certainly needs to drop more than 4lbs from that.

Ghalyoon

Possibly a huge handicap blot here. On his first start of 2019 he was 2^nd to Group 1 winner Nazreef (rated 116), beaten just 1.25 lengths. Lyndon B, who would rate as high as 97 later that season was 6 lengths further back in 3^rd.

If there were any worries that run was a fluke he backed that effort up when winning next time. It was only novice company but in hindsight another extremely strong race.

He beat Posted by 0.5 lengths and that runner has since been competitive in Group races, now rating as high as 105.

For Ghalyoon to still be rated in the high 80s looked an absolute gift going into his handicap debut, here at Doncaster a few weeks ago, despite coming back from a 399 day layoff. Ghlayoon found the line coming too quickly though, staying on late with purpose and only going down by 0.25 lengths to Magical Wish, who finished a close 2^nd on his next start despite probably finding the ground slightly against him next time out.

Ghalyoon has generously only be raised 1lb for that effort and still looks very well handicapped but he doesn’t look a speedy type and looks best served by a strong gallop over 7f.

Danzan

Yet to win a handicap and unsuccessful in his last sixteen runs but he has been runner up in his last three handicap efforts. He’s only been raised 3lbs for those performances meaning he’s still 19lbs below his peak rating so the handicap mark shouldn’t be a huge issue.

The races in which he has finished 2^nd look solid but unremarkable so he’d be a contender here if putting his best foot forward but it’s worth noting there was plenty of cut in the ground on all recent starts and this drying ground is likely to be against him.

Edgewood

Successful twice in three runs this season after a frustrating 2019 campaign. The 2^nd and 3^rd from his latest win have finished 2^nd and 1^st respectively in their next starts and considering he won that race by over 2 lengths a 7lb rise looks pretty fair. He looks a relatively strong stayer at 6f so the extra half furlong should be no issue.

Drying ground is a valid concern though as he’s failed to win in four runs on good or faster ground and he’ll be worth following when the mud is flying again.

Broken Spear

Without a win in his last thirteen handicap starts and has only dropped 9lbs in that time. He has placed on his last two starts but those have come in weaker looking races than this. There have been nine subsequent runs from the competition in his last two starts and none of those have placed.

Sunset Breeze

He's been a ‘typical Sir Mark Prescott improver’ this season despite racing at a much shorter distance to many of his stable mates. He completed a handicap hat trick earlier in the season in races that haven’t really worked out brilliantly.

He found a rise to class 2 too much for him at Newmarket in July, finishing 6^th of 17 in a race where none of the first eight finishers have won since. It looked as though he might find a mark of 87 too high going forward but he seemed to improve for 7f last time out, going down by just a neck. He runs off the same mark here and is due to go up 5lbs in the future so it can’t be argued that he’s not well handicapped.

Pace and Draw

There aren’t a huge amount of races run over this distance at Doncaster so looking at data for this particular distance isn’t going to reveal any huge course biases. On good ground, a central stall has been advantageous over both 6f and 7f with high draws generally slightly better than low so we are likely to see the same trend over this trip.

An aggregate of the last two runs suggest possible lone speed here (from Byline) but it’s worth noting that Sunset Breeze contested the pace last time out. Tranchee is also likely to be very close to the lead early on.

Verdict

With a middle draw and a half decent pace to aim at Ghalyoon would have been a confident selection to win this if the race was being run over 7f. This race has tended to go to speedier types in the past though and as he heads the market it just seems a little too much risk at the price. It would be no surprise if he is a staying on 3rd or 4th here.

It is possible that Ghalyoon is ridden more handily this time around to negate the drop back in trip and he does look really well handicapped so it’s with a heavy heart he is passed over and I wouldn’t put anyone off at least a saver on this runner.

Musicality is clearly progressive and wouldn't be a surprise winner but he’s no sure thing to beat Byline, who is more than twice the price of Musicality, so the value seeker in me tends to prefer Byline of that pair. He’s no guarantee to give his running though unfortunately so isn’t selected for a bet.

Sunset Breeze is another with a decent chance but he’s yet to race on turf faster than good to soft and this is a quick enough turn around for him.

This certainly won’t be my most confident bet of the week but Tranchee is the one that interests me most at the price. He’s unproven over this trip, and on this ground to a certain extent, but he’s bred to enjoy a sounder surface and shapes as though a drop back in trip will suit. His form is solid enough, he’s been progressive for current connections and taking a lead off a decent pace over this trip might just see him at his absolute best. He's not yet the 6f type that normally does well in this race but he could yet develop into a good sprinter.

Big Priced Runner In A League Of His Own?

9 September 2020/in Racing Pointers/by samdarby

Many are going to file Thursday’s 3.45 at Doncaster, a 7f handicap for 3yos, under the ‘too difficult’ category. By looking at the strength of the form of each runner, as opposed to just the bare results, we can hopefully make a bit more sense of the somewhat limited form on offer here.

This should help us differentiate between those who are overrated, and therefore underpriced, and those who are underrated, and therefore overpriced.

The Runners

Milltown Star

Had ten runs as a 2yo, culminating in a French listed win, but only one start so far as a 3yo. That latest effort came off this mark just over a week ago in very testing ground at Goodwood over this trip. No runner has since come out of that race so we don’t know the strength of the form but it’s worth noting that his best form has come with plenty of cut in the ground and he was beaten twice in nursery races last year off 87.

Persuasion

Difficult to weigh up his form. Beat some promising types on his debut and was sent off favourite for a Group 3 on his next start but he found that too much too early. He performed better next time, again at Group 3 level, but was a well beaten 7 length 2^nd to Wichita. He’s best judged on what he beat that day and it looks as though he earned his mark of 99 without it being generous. On his only run this season he was sent off 250/1 for the 2000 Guineas and beaten 21 lengths. He drops back in trip here which may suit but it’s 96 days since we last saw him and plenty has to be taken on trust.

Happy Bere

Relatively exposed now and ran okay in defeat in three runs in Doha earlier this year. Hasn’t run since February and for a new trainer, after a break, off a mark of 95 he has plenty of questions to answer.

Lexington Dash

Won a small field handicap easily in June off 5lb lower and has struggled since. The 2^nd in that race hasn’t run since but the 3^rd has been beaten similar distances in two starts since whilst the 4^th won next time but that was up in trip, on very different ground, so mixed messages.

Two of his three defeats since have come on soft ground and it’s possible that hasn’t suited. He ran much better on soft over 6f than 7f but his 4^th at Newmarket may have come in a hot looking 17 runner handicap but it’s worth noting the twenty-four subsequent runs from runners in that race have yielded just two wins.

Sandwiched between those soft ground efforts was a 5 length beating in the Stewards’ Cup. He didn’t look to be crying out for another furlong that day, which would help explain the heavy beating he took over this trip next time on softer ground. If he wins off this mark it’s probably more likely to come at 6f than 7f.

Eastern World

Still quite lightly raced and a very consistent runner to date. He won a Newmarket maiden over a mile beating Lawahed (now rated 85) by 2 lengths and Jalwan (now rated 76) by almost 7 lengths so on that run alone you wouldn’t say Eastern World is badly handicapped off 94.

He proved a mark of 90 was workable next time out over the same course and distance when 2^nd in a pretty strong handicap at the July Meeting.

The 4^th and 7^th both won comfortably next time out and there have been some 2^nd places too for other runners. Finest Sound let the form down a little but clearly didn’t run to form as Eastern World ran in the same York race and performed much more creditably.

In that competitive York race Eastern World looked the winner 1f from home despite a poor draw and on that evidence this drop back in trip may well suit. His chance probably depends on the effect of the first time cheekpieces. Using the ‘Profiler’ on the Geegeez racecard page we can see that cheekpieces are one of only three types of headgear on the offspring of Dubawi that are a profitable angle if backed blind which gives you hope they’ll sharpen him up.

Mister Snowdon

Unraced as a 2yo but has seen a racecourse five times in 2020 and he’s contested several races which give us a good idea of where he’s at. His last two runs have come in handicap company, the first over 6f at Yarmouth and the most recent at 7f at Goodwood. That Yarmouth run hasn’t worked out with the winner, 3^rd, 4^th, 5^th, 6^th and 7^th all failing to place since. His Goodwood run has worked out a little better with several runners placing on their next starts but that race has failed to produce a winner in seven races since so Mister Snowdon doesn’t look handicapped to win on either of those runs, for all he seems better at 7f than 6f.

Haqeeqy

One run as a 2yo and seemed to improve at 3 winning back to back races comfortably in novice company. He failed to beat a rival home on his handicap debut when contesting the Newmarket handicap in which Eastern World was runner up. Given the manner in which he was beaten it seems that there was more than just the handicap mark to blame but he didn’t beat much in his two novice wins and he’s a risky proposition for now.

Cold Front

Runner up on his first three starts, he finally got his head in front at the 4^th attempt with a comfortable 4 length victory over Raeed (rated 80). That effort was enough to see him go off favourite (rated 91) in the competitive 1m handicap at York in which Eastern World finished 5th. He was well beaten though, by over 10 lengths, and connections now reach for the tongue strap on this drop back in trip. The drop in trip should suit but he’s not thrown in on what he’s achieved so far and has to bounce back after that below par effort so there’s enough risk at the price.

Jumaira Bay

With four handicap runs this season this early favourite for the race is one of the easier runners to weigh up. On his seasonal bow, over a mile, he was runner up behind Nugget (won since) and a few lengths ahead of Carlos Felix (won since). He then dropped back to 7f which seemed to bring about more improvement

He was a big eyecatcher in this race, having to wait for a run and finishing best of all into 3^rd. With the 2^nd and 4^th winning next time and the 6^th winning both starts since this looked really hot form so it was no surprise that Jumaira Bay went very close next time, going down by a short head at York. That was disappointing at the time but the horse that beat him, Brunch, won again next time in the same handicap Eastern World finished 5^th in and Cold Front ran poorly in. The 3^rd and 4^th behind Jumaira Bay in this race filled the same positions behind Brunch once again on his next start.

Jumaira Bay was raised 5lbs by the handicapper for that run and ran in a maiden next time. Sent off at odds of 1/2, he could maybe have been expected to win by more than ¾ of a length but the runner up that day shed his maiden tag next time by 8 lengths and he was already 80 rated so in hindsight Jumaira Bay ran to form.

This runner looks to have really solid credentials here with all his runs this season coming in strong races for the grade. It’s worth noting that like Eastern World, he’ll be sporting first time cheekpieces.

Siyouni is the sire of Jumaira Bay and backing his offspring in cheekpieces results in a bigger loss than any other kind of headgear. It’s also worth noting that Roger Varian has a strike rate of 18.92% in handicaps with all runners since 2009 and just 8.64% during the same period with cheekpieces on and none of his handicap winners in cheekpieces seem to have come in double figure fields.

It sounds strange to question a trainer who has won this race in three of the last four years but in what would have ordinarily been one of the most solid bets of the day there look to be some serious warning signs.

Broughton’s Gold

Highly progressive runner with four wins from his last five starts. He beat three subsequent winners on his penultimate start at Windsor and is 8lbs higher today and then he proved himself on faster ground and at this trip of 7f last time with a win off a 4lb higher mark than he carried at Windsor. He was all out to beat Dancing In The Woods that day and that runner let the form down with a poor 7^th at Ascot on his next start so it’s probably fair to say Broughton Gold’s best form so far is on softer ground at 6f. That’s not to say he won’t rate higher yet over 7f and he’s certainly one of the leading contenders.

Ziggle Pops

Back to the mark he won off on seasonal debut at Lingfield in a race where the top 10 finishers have failed to win since from a combined thirty-one runs. He found life tough in better races since and there is little to suggest he’s going to strike here without finding major improvement from somewhere.

National League

Pretty consistent last year when winning twice from five starts, not beating much but running creditably behind Mums Tipple in the Yearling Stakes at York. This year he’s looked better than the bare results in all three races and it’s fair to say the bare result still isn’t too bad.

On his seasonal debut he looked in desperate need of further than 6f around Lingfield and he was only beaten 3 lengths by subsequent listed runner up Jovial. The 3^rd and 4^th, 1.75 lengths and 1/5 lengths ahead of him respectively have won three times between them since and the 5^th and 7^th have also won since.

Stepped up to 7f next time for the first time, he was a creditable 5^th in a race where the 2^nd, 3^rd and 6^th have all won since. He met trouble in running that day and would have gone closer with a clear run. Then at York next time out, in the race where Jumaira Bay finished 2^nd, National League seemed to be going as well as that rival a few furlongs from home but instead of following him through the jockey went for a different gap that never appeared. As a result he was never put in the race and effectively had a racecourse gallop. He most likely would have been in, or very close to, the places that day and let’s remind ourselves how that race has worked out.

Only one handicap winner there but Jumaira Bay ran to his rating next time out, La Trinidad and Black Caspian where not far behind Brunch again next time out and both Amaysmont and Abstemious both ran well without the run of the race on their next starts back at York. Whilst Jumaira Bay is now 5lbs higher, National League has dropped 1lb for the first time this season. Based on how much closer National League should have got in to Jumaira Bay in that race, with the swing in the weights it’s fair to say that there isn’t as much between these two runners as the odds suggest (4/1 and 28/1 respectively at the time of writing).

Black Caspian

This runner has run really well three times at York this season and was just under 3 lengths behind Jumaira Bay at York before running well again over a mile at the Ebor meeting, ahead of Eastern World that day. He’s got strong form in the book and on those runs looks overpriced at 14/1. However he’s shaping like a bit of a York specialist with the rest of his form not quite matching his York form. It’s only s small sample size (one handicap run away from York) but his run style is suited to York so whilst he’s well capable of placing, he’s slightly riskier than it may look on first inspection.

Pace and Draw

Doncaster is generally quite a fair course but is there a draw bias in these conditions?

It seems from the above data that although all runners have a chance, all metrics point to middle being the most favoured place to be with high slightly more preference for high than low.

Pace wise there is generally no course bias over this trip and any pace bias is likely to be dictated by how the races are run.

At the very least we should get a solid pace in this race with Black Caspian almost certain to be at the head of affairs with Eastern World almost certainly tracking him. Don’t be surprised if Persuasion also provides a bit of pace for the low drawn runners, he made the running last time out but that was the first time he’s been ridden so aggressively.

Verdict

Very competitive and with many in with some sort of chance it’s best to seek the value here. On all known form Jumaira Bay should go very close but there are some negative stats concerning the headgear so at the price he is passed over. If the headgear does have a positive effect than it’s probably another win for Roger Varian.

At a much bigger price I’d rather back National League each way at 28/1 with bookies paying 4 places. He’s run several good races in a row, better than the bare result on each occasion and good ground at a track like Doncaster should suit him nicely. He’s probably perfectly drawn in stall 7 and has pace drawn near him to aim at. Richard Fahey won this in 2016 and 2018 so it’s unlikely he just sends any old runner to this race.

Spirit Has The Hot Form At Doncaster

8 September 2020/in Racing Pointers/by samdarby

It’s great to see some bigger fields at Doncaster this week after declining field sizes at this meeting in recent years. For those who like a ‘difficult’ handicap to solve there won’t be many tougher races than Wednesday’s 3.45pm, which will be live on ITV3.

The main angle I like to use when looking at a race (other than evaluating the ‘shape’ of a race which is a must for everyone) is the strength of the form of each runner. The Hot Form Report is a great way of finding runners with strong form and we can also use the Future Form button on each race result page to find out how races have worked out since they were run.

The Runners

Sky Defender

Sky Defender has an extremely consistent profile having finished outside the first 4 in just one of seven starts since the resumption of racing. That’s despite racing in some of the most competitive handicaps this season. The bad news is he’s been beaten off this mark in 4 consecutive handicaps and in his last 6 starts he’s only finished ahead of one subsequent winner from the top 10 finishers in his races which is quite a damning stat. His overall profile suggests he’s more than capable of placing but there isn’t much to suggest he’s well enough handicapped to win again.

Pivoine

Pivoine hasn’t shown much form this season, beating just four runners from a possible twenty-nine. He has an obvious chance based on much of last season’s form, including a win in the John Smith’s Handicap off a 4lb higher mark but his form this season is a big concern and he hasn’t won away from York in his last eighteen runs. Faster ground would probably suit better too.

Dubai Horizon

He’s largely been campaigned over further this year and has shown very little in two runs in the UK over 14f after being in decent form in Meydan. He won in similar conditions over this distance at Sandown 2 years ago off this mark and made an okay reappearance in the Cambridgeshire after a 373 day break a year ago. Last year’s Cambridgeshire was an extremely hot renewal, of the first seventeen runners home, ten have won since and two haven’t raced since. He definitely has a chance based on much of his form but current well being has to be taken on trust.

Fox Power

He has some decent form in the book and largely ran well in defeat on the all weather over the winter. He often got the run of the race in those contests though and his turf form is yet to quite match his efforts on artificial surfaces. He made a slightly underwhelming return in the Hunt Cup and this step up in trip doesn’t look an obvious move so it’s fair to say he’s one of the less likely winners.

Caradoc

He’s clearly talented but he’s been expensive to follow this season. He’s been favourite or close to favouritism on his last eight runs and has been defeated in the last four of those. The closest he has got to winning this season was in the Investec Handicap at Epsom and although he didn’t get the run of the race he was still beaten over 4 lengths. Only one of the top 10 finishers in that race has come out and won and he seemed to benefit massively from a wind op. He’s clearly well thought of but that is leading him to being massively overbet and whilst he might well win, he’s once again a shorter price than the formbook entitles him to be.

Derevo

This runner has a similar profile to Caradoc. He had a good strike rate last season and hasn’t yet won this season whilst probably being better than the bare results in his races. He made a perfectly satisfactory seasonal debut in a race where every other runner in the first 6 has at least placed since. He followed that up with another good effort at Goodwood when slightly better than the bare result but no subsequent winners finished in the top 10 in that contest. He was well held last time out when the ground probably went against him at York. Just like Caradoc his profile is determining his price rather than his form and he’s another that might be an underpriced winner of this race but is probably best left alone.

Rise Hall

Still relatively lightly raced and he was progressive last season, running well in several decent handicaps. He’s been well below par on his last three runs, including both runs this season. That’s left him well handicapped on last season’s form but it’s a leap to back him to return to form.

Aasheq

Underwhelming form in two runs this season after 394 days on the sidelines. He’d be of extreme interest on much of his 2019 form, particularly his Epsom effort behind Mountain Angel.

Aasheq Form

The 1^st and 4^th both won their next starts and the 2^nd won within two runs but Aasheq hasn’t quite been able to re produce that form since. It’s perhaps worth noting that his best form has been when ridden handy and he’s largely been held up since that run. Keep this horse in mind for an in running back if he gets a prominent position.

Hypothetical

The big unknown in this race and one of three 3yos. He won easily at Chelmsford on debut last year as a 2yo but has been regressive since. He was 4^th in a Group 3 on his seasonal debut which doesn’t sound a bad run but he was sent off 15/8f for that race. The smart Pyledriver was 2^nd that day but the 3^rd has been beaten in handicaps off 98 twice since suggesting that Hypothetical’s mark of 97 is no gift. He was way below form on his turf debut on soft at Royal Ascot and even if translating his all weather form to turf on slightly faster ground here he’ll still have to improve. That’s possible from a thrice raced John Gosden runner but the combination of Gosden/Dettori ensures he’s shorter than he should be.

Data Protection

Been in good form since his wind op after being beaten by Sky Defender. He’s 8lbs higher now though and all six subsequent runners in the two races he has won have been unplaced since. It’s worth noting that he has faced Sky Defender since the gelding operation and in receipt of 19lbs he beat that runner by a neck. Data Protection is now 4lbs worse off so has his work cut out to beat Sky Defender again.

Starcat

A creditable 7^th in the 2000 Guineas behind Kameko, beaten 12 lengths in June. Well beaten on handicap debut (soft) in the hot Britannia Handicap and put in a much more measurable run at Glorious Goodwood when a staying on 5^th over this sort of trip behind Junkanoo. He was only beaten 2.5 lengths and to the naked eye he looks a real contender here. However looking at the Future Form of that Goodwood race shows that the race has worked out terribly.

He’s entitled to improve with the extra experience and in this bigger field but he certainly needs to.

Groveman

Habitual front runner, campaigned over further for the past two years. He’s at his best when able to dominate small fields (three wins have come in fields of 5, 6 and 8) and this step back in distance doesn’t look an obvious move off a near career high mark.

Mayfair Sprit

Boasts an impressive 50% strike rate on turf compared to just 14% on the all weather. He was a big drifter last time out (went from 5/2 to 13/2) but ran just okay in third on very fast ground on his first try at 12f against two rivals who got the run of the race. He’s perhaps better judged on his previous effort when victorious at Windsor over 11.5f. That race was particularly hot form with the 3^rd, 4^th and 6^th all winning since.

He’s twice a winner on good to soft ground but that Windsor run came on good to firm so he’s versatile with regards to underfoot conditions and given that he’s generally held up and proven over slightly further he’d be ideally served by a good gallop here.

Strait Of Hormuz

The final 3yo in the field and one who has been in good, consistent form this season. He won on his reappearance over a mile at Haydock in what was certainly a hot race with each of the four horses that followed him home all winning since.

He shaped as though he’d get further that day which is no surprise given he is by Derby winner Sir Percy. He again shaped as though wanting further than a mile on his next start at Ascot when not seen to best effect off a slow gallop and he duly showed improved form next time out at Chester over this trip. He shaped well in 2^nd, fairly well placed off another slow gallop but it’s a concern that the nearest seven runners to him that have run since from that race have all failed to place. He’s an interesting runner and gets the handy weight for age allowance from his elders but he arguably achieved less last time out than it initially seemed. However his previous strong run at Haydock shouldn’t be forgotten, for all he is now on a 7lb higher mark.

Pace and Draw

Doncaster is generally considered one of the fairer tracks and that is certainly backed up by the draw data over this trip on good ground:

There is almost nothing in the win, place and PRB data so no concerns over the draw for any runner here.

So how about the pace of the race?

First of all, Doncaster as a course is very fair and one that tends to suit hold up horses over this trip on this ground. The place data is more useful than the win data here and runners from mid division have the best place strike rate, but there is very little between prominent, mid division and held up. The main takeaway is you don’t really want to be forcing the pace.

On fair tracks the pace of the individual race is likely to have the biggest say on the outcome and whilst the pace map is pointing towards lone pace from Groveman, it would be no surprise to see Sky Defender or Fox Power dispute that lead. Either way it certainly seems as though those nearer the rear won’t be disadvantaged.

Verdict

No real course bias to rule many out, although you probably won’t want to be on the pace.

In terms of form there are many in with chances in this race, at least half the field, but many of those are too short on what they have achieved so far and/or have been running in races that have worked out poorly. This does look a hot race so any runner that has recently beaten other well handicapped horses should be favoured.

There is every chance Strait Of Hormuz improves for this trip at a more conventional track than Chester and it’s not his fault those behind him let the form down last time, although it’s a worry that horses that got very close to him didn’t run well on their next starts. He gets weight from his elders here and looks by far the best of the 3yos.

There has to be a feeling that Mayfair Spirit has been very much underestimated here though. If he came here off the back of his Windsor win he’d be half the current odds of 12/1 and he still very much ran as if in form last time out.

And if in running backing is your game check out what position Aasheq takes up early on. If he's racing prominently it might be a sign that a big run is on the cards at a price.

Grounds For Concern For Leading Superior Mile Runner

4 September 2020/in Big Race Previews, Geegeez Gold, Horse Racing Blog, Racing Pointers/by samdarby

There are plenty of big handicaps on Saturday and we also have Group 1 action so it should be a great day for betting whatever your race type preference. This week I’m going to look at another one mile Group race, having previewed the Celebration Mile last week at Goodwood. This week it's the Group 3 Superior Mile (1.45pm) at Haydock.

I’ll be using Instant Expert once again for this race but it’s worth noting that there are some more lightly raced types in this race compared to last week which means there will be a few more unknowns.

The Going

The ground is going to be a hugely important factor here with underfoot conditions currently described as soft, heavy in places on Friday afternoon. It’s due to be a dry weekend so we’ll probably be look at soft ground all over.

To get as much data into Instant Expert as possible I’m going to include data from ground described anywhere between good to soft and heavy.

A few things initially stand out here. First of all Dark Vision has failed to place in all four starts on softish ground. He’d have half a chance on his best form but it looks as though a line can be put through this runner when there is cut in the ground.

Khaloosy and Kinross both have both encountered softer ground once and they both won those races.

Stormy Antarctic and Qaysar have both had plenty of experience in these kinds of conditions and both have strong records. Stormy Atlantic has placed in six of his eight runs on ground ranging from good to soft to heavy whilst Qaysar is three from five as far as placing is concerned. The pair both have three wins when the mud is flying.

The well fancied My Oberon and Top Rank are yet to run on softer than good whilst outsider Graignes is also an unknown as far as the ground is concerned.

For those that are yet to run on softer ground we can get an insight into their suitability for testing conditions by using Instant Expert to look at sire data.

Stormy Atlantic (Stormy Antarctic), Kingman (Kinross) and Dubawi (Khaloosy & My Oberon) all score well here and those sire stats aren’t contradicted by what we have seen from these offspring so far which is great. Comparatively the offspring of Dark Angel perform fairly poorly so Top Rank is far from guaranteed to enjoy these conditions.

Class

My Oberon has run once and placed once in class 1 races. Stormy Antarctic is by far the most experienced of these at this level with fourteen runs and six places. Dark Vision has two places from six attempts in class 1 races so he’s had plenty of tries at this sort of level without much success. Another strike against that runner.

Qaysar and Top Rank both step up in class whilst Khaloosy has failed to place in his only run in a class 1 with Kinross failing to place in two attempts in class 1 races.

Course

Not much course form on offer here but a big tick for Qaysar who has placed in two runs from three here. Both of those places were actually victories.

Distance

Top Rank has been most consistent at a mile to date, placing in all five starts, which we know were all at a lower level than this. At the other end of the scale Kinross and Qaysar have not been as consistent at this trip.

Field Size

Top Rank and Khaloosy have both placed in their sole start in fields of this sort of size. We have much more data for Stormy Antarctic, Qaysar and Dark Vision who are clearly comfortable in these mid sized fields.

A Look At The Form

We have plenty of question marks still as we only have limited data for the more lightly raced contenders.

Doubts Over Top Rank and Kinross Justified?

Top Rank and Kinross are two runners who are on the brink of having a line put through them based on the results from Instant Expert. Top Rank was beaten by a length in a handicap off a mark of 103 last time out. He’s now rated 106 which leaves him with 8lbs to find on the top rated runner here. He is lightly raced so may still improve but he’ll need to do so on ground he’s unproven on so comes with plenty of risk attached for a 6/1 chance.

Kinross has form on this sort of ground but it’s difficult to weight up as it was a wide margin maiden win. He did beat the now 97 rated Raaeb by 8 lengths (in receipt of 6lbs) so it was a smart effort on that occasion. His two runs this season have come in Group 1 company and he hasn’t been totally disgraced, especially as those runs came on faster ground. He’ll need to improve for the return to this ground though and he’s as yet unproven in ground quite this soft so backers are taking plenty of chances.

The Shortlist

There is little form that suggests Graignes is going to win this and the ground looks against Dark Vision so we are currently left with:

Khaloosy
My Oberon
Stormy Antarctic
Qaysar

First let’s look at the more exposed pair of Stormy Antarctic and Qaysar. Stormy Antarctic has had an official rating between 111 and 114 for the past 4 years which means we should know exactly how good he is. Instant Expert has shown that he is a horse with an okay record in better class races that relishes cut in the ground. On heavy ground he has form figures of 112, on soft ground he has form of 114 and that defeat came at the hands of Roaring Lion in a Group 1. Even on good to soft ground at a mile his form figures are 10222 with that blowout coming in the 2000 Guineas.

He clearly loves this ground but how good is he? He’s the horse to beat according to official ratings, although there are several possible improvers in this line up. He’s won two of his three starts at Group 3 level over a mile. His defeat came earlier this year at the hands of Century Dream. He carried a Group 2 penalty that day (which he doesn’t have to shoulder here) and that was his first start in almost 12 months so 4^th was a decent enough effort. At Group 2 level at this trip he has finished 2^nd and 3^rd and the ground wasn’t quite as soft as he’d like on either occasion. He’s clearly good enough to win this sort of race and will be getting close to ideal conditions here.

Unlike Stormy Antarctic, Qaysar is completely unproven at this level. He’s improved each season though and is rated just 3lbs shy of Stormy Antarctic courtesy of winning a handicap over course and distance on testing ground by 4.25 length off a mark of 105. He’s failed to reproduce that form in two runs since but one of those runs was in a small field conditions race on fast ground and the other was in a York handicap off a mark of 111 and he was well enough beaten on his previous York run off a much lower mark. He’s probably not going to prove much better than his current rating but his best career run came here under similar conditions and a reproduction of that might see him reach the places.

Khaloosy and Oberon actually met last time in a Group 3 at Goodwood and My Oberon was 2.5 lengths in front of Khaloosy. My Oberon was also badly hampered by the winner so was value for further. Whilst My Oberon looked at home on the ground that day Khaloosy looked all at sea with the combination of fast ground and unconventional track clearly against him. Khaloosy is much better judged on his previous effort at Royal Ascot where he won the Britannia Handicap easily. That race has worked out well and beating Finest Sound (now rated 94) giving him 7lbs and a comfortable looking 4.5 length beating means he probably ran to a rating even higher than his current mark of 111 that day.

My Oberon has no soft ground form and although he’s bred to handle it, he’s previously been described by his trainer as ‘a fast ground horse’ so there have to be some reservations. Those same reservations don’t hang over Khaloosy whose sole run in testing conditions was by far his best.

Pace

We all know how important pace can be, especially in these smaller field races that can be run at a crawl on occasions. Here is the pace map for this race based on their last four runs:

As you can see, there doesn’t appear to be much pace in this contest so those that are able to sit handily could be advantaged as could be those who have proven themselves to be a bit ‘speedier’. Stormy Antarctic stays further than this so he’d ideally want a strong test and many of Qaysar’s best efforts have come when held up, although he is tactically versatile. My Oberon has a nice race style for this sort of set up but the question mark over the ground remains. Khaloosy was held up at Ascot but those were the right tactics to employ on the day and he’s been ridden much more prominently in his other runs.

Verdict

Assuming Khaloosy isn’t just much better at Ascot, he deserves another chance here and after just 4 career starts he should be able to improve past the extremely solid yard stick that is Stormy Antarctic. Meanwhile Qaysar isn’t a terrible bet for a place and could fill 3^rd spot behind the other pair if things go to plan.

Saturday TV Trends Sat TV Trends: 5th Sept 2020

4 September 2020/in Racing Pointers, Trends/by Andy Newton

This Saturday the ITV cameras head to Haydock, Kempton and Ascot to take in races across the three venues. The Group One Sprint Cup is the clear highlight of the weekend from Haydock - Did you know that 15 of the last 18 Sprint Cup winners were aged 5 or younger, while 13 of the last 18 came from stalls 6 or higher?

Use these key trends and stats to whittle down the runners and find the best profiles of past winners.

Saturday 5th September 2020

HAYDOCK Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV)

1.45 – Betfair Superior Mile (Group 3) Cl1 1m ITV

14/16 – Won over 1m or further before
14/16 – Won 3 or more times before
13/16 – Winning distance 1 length or more
13/16 – Had won a Listed or better race before
12/16 – Returned 11/2 or shorter in the betting
12/16 – Had 3 or more runs that season
9/16 – Placed favourites
9/16 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
7/16 – Ran at either York or Ascot last time out
6/16 – Winning favourites
4/16 – Won last time out
4/16 – Had won at Haydock before
3/16 – Trained by Roger Charlton
3/16 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/16 – Trained by Brian Ellison
6 of the last 11 winners came from stalls 1 or 4
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 11/2

2.15 – Best Odds On The Betfair Exchange Handicap Cl2 1m6f ITV

10/11 – Came from stalls 3-10 (inc)
10/11 – Had run in the last 4 weeks
9/11 – Had won over at least 1m4f before
9/11 – Carried 9-1 or less in weight
8/11 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
8/11 – Rated between 81-89 (inc)
6/11 – Came from stalls 6-10 (inc)
6/11 – Irish Bred
6/11 – Placed favourites
5/11 – Won last time out
5/11 – Ran at either York (2) or Newbury (2) last time out
4/11 – Winning favourites
2/11 – Trained by Andrew Balding
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 8/1

2.50 – Betfair Exchange Old Borough Cup Handicap Cl2 1m6f ITV

16/17 – Had won over at least 1m4f before
16/17 – Had won at least twice before
15/17 – Had run 4 or more times that season
15/17 – Aged 3, 4 or 5 years-old
14/17 – Finished 4th or better last time out
13/17 – Rated 90 to 101
12/17 – Drawn in stall 7 or higher
10/17 – Winning distance ¾ lengths or less
9/17 – Had run over 1m6f before
8/17 – Carried 9-0 or more
8/17 – Ran at Haydock before
6/17 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
6/17 – Ran at York last time out
4/17 – Trained by Mark Johnston
2/17 – Ridden by Joe Fanning
2/17 – Trained by Iain Jardine (2 of last 5 winners)
2/17 – Trained by Ian Williams (last 2 winners)
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 9/1
Reshoun (6/1) won this race in 2018

3.25 – Betfair Sprint Cup (British Champions Series) (Group 1) Cl1 6f ITV

16/18 – Unplaced horses from stall 1
15/18 - Aged 5 or younger
15/18 – Rated 111 or higher
15/18 – Had won over 6f before
14/18 – Had 4 or more career wins to their name
14/18 – Didn’t win their previous race
14/18 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
13/18 – Winning distance 1 length or less
13/18 – Drawn in stall 5 or higher
12/18 –Had 4 or more runs that season
12/18 – Had won a Group race before
9/18 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
9/18 – Ran at Deauville (4) or York (5) last time out
9/18 – Had run at Haydock before (3 had won)
7/18 – Drawn in a double-figure stall
7/18 – Had won a Group 1 before
6/18 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 18 years is 9/1
Hello Youmzain (9/2 cfav) won this race in 2019
The Tin Man (7/1) won this race in 2018

4.00 - Betfair Each Way Edge Be Friendly Handicap Cl2 (3yo+ 0-105) 5f ITV

14/17 – Previous winners over 5f
13/17 – Had won 4 or more times before
12/17 – Rated 90+
12/17 – Aged 3, 4 or 5 years-old
11/17 – Had run at Haydock before (2 won)
11/17 – Unplaced last time out
11/17 – Drawn in stall 7 or lower
10/17 – Had 8 or more previous runs that season
10/17 – Winning distance - 1 length or less
8/17 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
8/17 – Placed favourites
8/17 – Carried 8-11 or less
3/17 – Won last time out
3/17 – Winning favourites
2/17 – Trained by Tim Easterby

Ascot Horse Racing Trends (ATR/ITV)

3.05 - Lavazza Stakes (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 1m4f ITV

Only 10 previous runnings
8/10 – Rated between 84-95
8/10 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
7/10 – Had won just once before
5/10 – Horses placed from stall 10
5/10 – Returned a double-figure price
5/10 – Carried 9-0 or more
5/10 – Had run at Ascot before (3 won)
4/10 – Horses placed from stall 8
4/10 – Won last time out
3/10 – Ran at Ascot last time out
3/10 – Winning favourites (1 co, 1 joint)
2/10 – Won by trainer Saeed Bin Suroor
2/10 – Trained by Roger Varian
Note: the 2015 running was a dead-heat

3.40 – Tweenhills Follow The Foals Handicap Cl2 (3yo+ 0-105) 6f ITV

Only 5 previous runnings
5/5 – Aged 3 (2) or 5 (3) years-old
5/5 – Won over 6f before
5/5 – Rated between 80-91 (inc)
4/5 – Won 2+ times before
4/5 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
4/5 – Drawn in stall 9 or higher
4/5 – Carried 9-1 or less in weight
4/5 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
3/5 – Unplaced favourites
2/5 – Winning favourites
2/5 – Won last time out
2/5 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
2/5 – Trained by Ed Walker (last 2)

4.15 – Porsche Handicap Cl2 (3yo+) 7f ITV

Only 9 previous runnings
9/9 – Had won over 7f before
9/9 – Had raced in the last 6 weeks
9/9 – Winning distance 1 ¼ lengths or less
8/9 – Carried 9-1 or less in weight
8/9 – Didn’t win last time out
8/9 – Had run at the course before
7/9 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
6/9 – Irish bred
6/9 – Unplaced last time out
4/9 – Rated between 95-97
4/9 – Won by a claiming jockey (4 of the last 6)
4/9 – Had between 4-7 wins already
3/9 – Aged 5 years-old
2/9 – Winners from stall 12
0/9 – Winning favourites
Salute The Soldier (10/1) won the race in 2019
Ripp Orf (7/1) won the race in 2018 and was second in 2019

Kempton Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV)

2.00 – Unibet 3 Uniboosts A Day Sirenia Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 (2yo) 6f ITV

10/10 – Winners between stalls 2-10 (inc)
10/10 – Won 1 or 2 times before
10/10 – Ran in the last 3 weeks
10/10 – Had 4+ runs before
10/10 – Had won over 5f or 6f before
8/10 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
8/10 – Foaled March or earlier
8/10 – Finished 5^th or better last time out
7/10 – Favourites that finished in the top 3
6/10 – Ran at York last time out
3/10 – Winning favourites
3/10 – Won last time out
2/10 – Won by the Richard Hannon yard

2.35 – Unibet September Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 1m4f ITV

13/14 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
11/14 – Had won a Listed or Group race before
10/14 – Placed favourites
10/14 – Didn’t win last time out
10/14 – Had won between 4-7 times before
10/14 – Had won over 1m4f before
10/14 – Winning distance – 1 ¼l or more
9/14 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
8/14 – Horses from stall 2 that finished in the top 3
8/14 – Had run at Kempton before
5/14 – Ran at York (3) or Windsor (2) last time out
5/14 – Aged 4 years-old
5/14 – Winning favourites
4/14 – Godolphin-owned runners
3/14 – Winners from stall 2
3/14 – Trained by John Gosden (3 of the last 5)
3/14 – Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor
2/14 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
1/14 – Winners from stall 1
Enable (8/15) won the race in 2018

Dream Conditions For Century In Celebration Mile

28 August 2020/in Big Race Previews, Geegeez Gold, Horse Racing Blog/by samdarby

Soft ground seems to have scared many runners away this weekend leaving us with a day of largely smaller field races. The highest class race of the day is the Group 2 Celebration Mile at Goodwood and that’s going to be the focus of this article. One of the most popular features of Geegeez Gold is the ‘Instant Expert’ and I’m going to use the Instant Expert to gain a quick overview of the seven runners set to take part in this race.

Place Data

First let’s take a look at it from a place perspective:

Ground

I’ve set the going parameter to anything from good to soft down to heavy. We are probably going to be looking at soft, borderline heavy ground for this race but this should allow us to get more data. We can dig deeper into what specific going each horse has handled or not handled later.

It seems that Century Dream and Sir Busker stand out as two runners that not only handle cut in the ground, but relish it. Century Dream has had the most runs on testing ground and has impressively placed in seven of his ten runs. Sir Busker is next best with four placings from six runs on ground that is good to soft or softer.

There is limited evidence about Urban Icon’s ability to handle cut in the ground as he’s had just two runs in these conditions, placing in one of those.

Interestingly enough Regal Reality and Benbatl, the two early favourites have failed to place in over 50% of their races in this sort of going. Between them they’ve managed just three placings in nine starts. The only runners in this field to have never placed on softer ground are Duke Of Hazzard and Positive who seem to have been kept away from softer ground as often as possible and with good reason.

Class

Century Dream again comes out on top having placed in five out of eight runs in class 1 races. Duke Of Hazzard and Positive, who scored poorly on this ground, actually score very well here. That’s not a big help though if they don’t go on the ground.

Urban Icon, Regal Reality and Benbatl have poorer records in class 1 races but it’s worth remembering this will include anything from listed contests to Group 1 races and there can be more merit in finishing 4^th in a Group 1 than 1^st in a listed race. We’ll dig deeper into the race class later.

Sir Busker is the only one of these to be running in a class 1 race for the first time.

Course

At a course as unique as Goodwood course form is always a positive. There is one clear winner here and that is Duke Of Hazzard who has never been out of the frame in four starts. Sir Busker has placed in two of his three runs. It’s fair to say that no runner is this field has run poorly at this venue.

Distance

You’d expect most runners in a Group 2 to have a solid record over the race distance but it’s worth noting that the favourite here, Benbatl, has managed just one placing in five runs at a mile. This stat really stands out and along with the ground stats for Benbatl suggests he has a poor profile for this race.

Like Benbatl, Regal Reality is another who scored badly on this ground and also has a poor record over this distance whilst Urban Icon is another with a sub 50% placing ratio at a mile.

Century Dream continues to score well with the best ratio here having placed in 67% of his runs over a mile.

Field Size

Often an underrated criteria, many horses are better suited to bigger fields and others to smaller fields. Yet again Century Dream is looking good having placed in all his runs in field sizes of 7 or less.

The stand out here is Regal Reality’s record in small fields. He’s managed to place in just two of his eight runs in field sizes this small.

Placings Summary

Without having to dig deep into the form Instant Expert has shown us that Century Dream is the really solid horse in this race. Sir Busker also scores well in most categories but is unproven (having been untried) in this sort of company. Duke Of Hazzard looks pretty good but there are serious ground concerns.

At the other end of the scale, Benbatl and Regal Reality, look two of the riskier propositions despite their positions in the market.

Win Data

This is what Instant Expert looks like for win purposes. We are getting less data here but the data we do get should be more telling.

Once again Century Dream is coming out very well on all criteria except course as he is yet to run at Goodwood. Sir Busker is another who looks solid and a good proposition over a mile on testing ground at Goodwood. He’s yet to prove himself in this company and perhaps the biggest question mark for this horse is his ability to run well in smaller fields.

Duke Of Hazzard is interesting based on his course record of three wins from four starts. He also has a decent enough strike rate at this distance and in small fields. He’s had only one run on softer ground and finished unplaced so that’s the big unknown.

Early favourite Benbatl only really seems to have small field ability in his favour for win purposes whilst Regal Reality is unbeaten at Goodwood but other than that most of the elements that make up this race seem against him.

Positive scores poorly for wins in any of these circumstances except field size, and even a sole victory from three starts in small fields isn’t that great on the face of things. Meanwhile there is little evidence that Urban Icon will be at home in this race.

Digging Deeper

So far we have a very positive profile for Century Dream, a generally positive one for Sir Busker and a big ground question mark over Duke Of Hazzard. It also seems Benbatl and Regal Reality might be worth taking on.

Let’s first look at Duke Of Hazzard’s ground preference as he may be easy to rule out on that basis. Instant Expert is only able to look at runs from the UK and Ireland and a deeper look at Duke Of Hazzard’s form tells us he’s actually run three times on ground softer than good. Two of those runs were perhaps slightly below par but in Group 1 company so finishing unplaced wasn’t a disgrace. He also finished 2^nd in a listed race at Deauville on good to soft. It doesn’t look as though he’s hopeless on softer ground and he clearly goes very well at Goodwood but there has to be a suspicion he is at his best on fast ground and it will probably take a near career best to win this.

Are Benbatl and Regal Reality really no hopers in this race despite their odds? Benbatl is the highest rated runner in this field and has largely been contesting Group 1 races over the past few years so having more unplaced efforts isn’t the end of the world. Looking at the ground though, he has been beaten favourite on softer than good on three of his four starts in those conditions (and was well beaten over too far a trip on his other attempt). The worse the ground gets, the worse he performs it seems.

Benbatl also had some worrying stats in races over a mile. Two of his five runs at a mile came on heavy ground. Those runs are relevant here as the going may not be far off heavy but they aren’t poof that he isn’t effective at a mile. He’s won over this trip at Group 2 level in the past so he’s clearly capable of winning this sort of race at this distance but it backs up the suspicion that the ground will be too soft for him.

Regal Reality was an impressive winner last time out over this trip at Group 3 level (good to firm). That was in an 8 runner field which perhaps allays fears he doesn’t act in smaller fields (he does have a poor record when there are 7 or fewer runners). All his wins outside of maiden company have been on good to firm ground though and whilst he’s placed on softer ground it’s worth noting that his only defeat from four runs at Group 3 level came on soft ground. The ground is the main reason to oppose Regal Reality but the fact he’s not won above Group 3 level in eight attempts is also a concern for his backers.

That leaves us with Century Dream and Sir Busker. Century Dream looks extremely solid based on Instant Expert so let’s see if he has any limitations. He’s never run at Goodwood but there is nothing in his profile that suggests he won’t handle the course. Possibly the best evidence we can get is to look at the Instant Expert for this race but from the sires’ perspectives.

Cape Cross’ offspring have run nine times at Goodwood in the past two years producing two winners. That might not seem a massive win ratio but it’s only bettered by Sire Prancelot (sire of Sir Busker) here and even then that’s by just 1%.

Let’s now look at Century Dreams’ defeats in Group company over a mile with cut in the ground. His two career unplaced efforts in these conditions came in an Ascot handicap on good to soft ground where perhaps it wasn’t quite soft enough for him and again at Ascot in a Group 1. In fact this horse has won just once from seven starts at Ascot (33% strike rate elsewhere) so it might not be his ideal course, for all he is Group 1 placed there on soft ground. Away from Ascot his only defeat over mile on softish ground was a 2^nd in a listed race at Newmarket.

It would be hard to argue that Century Dream isn’t good enough to win this Group 2. His only run so far at this level was a 4^th in the Summer Mile at Ascot on unsuitable good to firm ground. He has won both his starts at Group 3 level comfortably and has previously got within ¾ of a length of Roaring Lion in the QEII stakes at Ascot (possibly not his favourite track).

Can Sir Busker defeat him? He’s been a rapid improver this season, going up 19lbs in just 5 runs and he’s still relatively unexposed at this distance. He was slightly unlucky not to win a competitive handicap last time out off 107 so could easily yet rate higher than his current mark of 111 which leaves him just 4lbs to find on Century Dream. Sir Busker was 2^nd here as a 2yo, won a low grade handicap here as a 3yo and his only unplaced effort at this course was in the Golden Mile two starts ago when getting no run on the rail whatsoever.

The main concern with Sir Busker would be his ability to handle small fields. He’s a real hold up performer who needs a decent pace to aim at so it stands to reason he’d generally be better in bigger fields. He has won in 8 and 9 runner fields, albeit off much lower marks in handicaps, but was outpaced in several smaller field races last year (often at shorter trips than this).

The key here to Sir Busker is going to be the early pace.

Benbatl is likely to lead with Century Dream well placed just off him. It doesn’t look like there will be a strong pace which could inconvenience Sir Busker. If Benbatl ends up being withdrawn because of the ground then there is likely to be an even slower gallop and that pushes things more in the favour of Century Dream and less in the favour of Sir Busker.

They say ‘class horses go on any ground’ but the evidence in this race is that several of these are going to find conditions (not just the ground) against them. Century Dream seems to have everything going for him and Sir Busker is not far behind.

I wouldn’t put anyone off either of these runners who are available at 11/2 and 9/1 respectively at the time of writing. Unfortunately with just 7 runners each way betting is far less attractive. However it could be worth maximising the value from this race by backing both Century Dream and Sir Busker in a reverse forecast.

Sat TV Trends: 29th Aug 2020

28 August 2020/in Racing Pointers, Trends/by Andy Newton

More LIVE horse racing action this weekend as the ITV4 cameras head to Goodwood, Newmarket and Windsor – we’ve got it all covered with the key trends and stats to help you whittle down the runners and find the best profiles of past winners.

Goodwood Horse Racing Trends

1.50 - Ladbrokes Prestige Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies) Cl1 (2yo) 7f ITV

10/10 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
10/10 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
10/10 – Yet to win a Group or Listed race
10/10 – Foaled in Jan, Feb or March
10/10 – Had won over 6f or 7f before
10/10 – Won 1 or 2 times before
8/10 – Placed favourites
8/10 – Ran at Newmarket, Goodwood or Ascot last time out
7/10 – Won last time out
7/10 – Had won over 7f before
6/10 – Winning favourites
4/10 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
2/10 – Trained by Mick Channon
2/10 – Ridden by Harry Bentley
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 3/1

2.25 - Brian Chattaway Celebrating 50 Years At Ladbrokes Handicap Cl2 (3yo+) 7f ITV

9/10 – Aged between 4-6 years-old
9/10 – Won over 7f before
9/10 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
9/10 – Won between 3-5 times before
8/10 – Carried 9-0 or more in weight
8/10 – Drawn between stalls 5-9 (inc)
8/10 – Didn’t win last time out
7/10 – Placed favourites
7/10 – Had run at Goodwood or Ascot last time out
7/10 – Had run at Goodwood before
7/10 – Returned 13/2 or shorter in the betting
6/10 – Winning favourites
5/10 – Irish bred
4/10 – Ran at Goodwood last time out
2/10 – Ridden by Adam Kirby
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 7/1

3:00 - Ladbrokes March Stakes (Group 3) (In Memory Of John Dunlop) Cl1 (3yo) 1m6f ITV

10/10 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
9/10 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
9/10 – Placed favourites
9/10 – Yet to win a Group or Listed race
8/10 – Won over at least 1m4f in the past
7/10 – Drawn in stalls 4 or lower
7/10 – Had run at the track before
6/10 – Won by a 3 year-old (last 6 runnings)
5/10 – Ran at Goodwood last time out
4/10 – Winning favourites
4/10 – Won last time out
2/10 – Trained by William Haggas
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 10/3

3:35 - Ladbrokes Celebration Mile Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 (3yo+) 1m ITV

10/10 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
10/10 – Drawn in stalls 7 or lower
9/10 – Had won a Listed or Group race before
9/10 – Returned 9/2 or shorter in the betting
9/10 – Had won over 1m before
8/10 – Won between 3- 6 times before
7/10 – Drawn in stalls 1, 2 or 3
7/10 – Had won a Group race before
6/10 – Had run at the track before
5/10 – Won by a 3 year-old
4/10 – Winning favourites
4/10 – Ran at Goodwood last time out
3/10 – Ran at Salisbury last time out
3/10 – Ridden by Oisin Murphy
3/10 – Won last time out
2/10 – Trained by David Simcock
Duke Of Hazzard (3/1) won this in 2019

Newmarket Horse Racing Trends

2:05 - Hopeful Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 (3yo+) 6f ITV

10/10 – Has won over 6f in the past
10/10 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
9/10 – Didn’t win last time out
8/10 – Aged between 4-6 years-old
8/10 – Returned 15/2 or shorter in the betting
7/10 – Drawn in stall 5 or lower
6/10 – Won between 2-4 times before
6/10 – Placed last time out
6/10 – Ran at the track before
5/10 – Stall 1 horse placed (top 3)
3/10 – Winning favourite
2/10 – Trained by Dean Ivory
Raucous (10/1) won this race in 2019
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 13/2

Windsor Horse Racing Trends

2:40 - August Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 (3yo+) 1m3½f ITV

10/10 – Aged between 3-6 years old
10/10 – Drawn between stalls 2-6 (inc)
10/10 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
9/10 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
9/10 – Placed favourites
8/10 – Had won over 1m2f+ before
8/10 – Irish bred
6/10 – Won between 2-4 times
6/10 – Drawn in stall 4
3/10 – Won last time out
3/10 – Ran at Goodwood last time out
2/10 – Trained by David Simcock
2/10 – Trained by Roger Varian
2/10 – Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor
2/10 – Ridden by Jamie Spencer
1/10 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 5/1
Desert Encounter won this in 2018

3:15 - Sky Sports Racing Winter Hill Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 (3yo+) 1m2f ITV

9/10 – Won over 1m2f+ before
8/10 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
7/10 – Winners from stalls 1 (4) or 4 (3)
7/10 – Had won 4+ times before
7/10 – Placed in the top three last time out
5/10 – Won last time out
3/10 – Ran at Goodwood last time out
2/10 – Trained by Michael Bell
2/10 – Ridden by Jamie Spencer
Desert Encounter won this race in 2019
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 9/2

Saturday TV Trends: Sandown 22nd Aug 2020

21 August 2020/in Racing Pointers, Trends/by Andy Newton

This Saturday (22^nd August 2020) the ITV cameras are not only at York to cover their final day of their Ebor Festival, but they are also at Sandown Park to show FOUR LIVE races.

We’ve got all the LIVE Sandown races covered with key trends and stats.

Sandown Horse Racing Trends

2.05 - Betway Handicap Cl3 (3yo 0-90) 1m2f ITV

Only 3 previous runnings
3/3 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
3/3 – Carried between 9-1 and 9-5 (inc) in weight
3/3 – Winners from stalls 3, 4 or 5
0/3 – Winning favourite
Trainers Roger Charlton, Clive Cox and Sylvester Kirk have won this race
Trainer David Menuisier has a 39% record with his 3 year-olds at the track
Trainer Sir Mark Prescott has a 27% record with his 3 year-olds at the track
Trainer John Gosden has a 22% record with his 3 year-olds at the track

2.40 - Heed Your Hunch At Betway Handicap Cl3 (4yo+ 0-90) 1m ITV

No previous runnings
Trainer Saeed Bin Suroor has a 40% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer David Menuisier has a 31% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track

3.15 - Play 4 To Win At Betway Handicap Cl3 (3yo 0-90) 1m ITV

Only 3 previous runnings
3/3 – Winners between stalls 5-7 (inc)
3/3 – Carried between 9-6 and 9-9 (inc) in weight
2/3 – Drawn in stall 5
1/3 – Winning favourites
Trainers George Scott, Martin Smith and Simon Crisford have won this race before
Trainer Roger Charlton has a 23% record with his 3 year-olds at the track
Trainer Roger Varian has a 23% record with his 3 year-olds at the track has
Trainer Charlie Appleby has a 23% record with his 3 year-olds at the track
Trainer John Gosden has a 22% record with his 3 year-olds at the track

3.55 - Betway British Stallion Studs EBF Maiden Fillies' Stakes (Plus 10/GBB Race) Cl5 (2yo) 7f

No previous runnings
Trainer John Gallagher has a 27% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track

Trainer No Brainers: The Very Best At York And The Ebor Festival

18 August 2020/in Big Race Previews, Horse Racing Blog, Racing Pointers/by samdarby

The racing at York is going to be extremely competitive this week, especially if you are a fan of handicap betting like myself. Rather than trying to pinpoint the single winner of a race (which is going to be very difficult in most cases) it may be more helpful to attempt to narrow the fields down to shortlists of runners that should go well.

After showcasing Roger Charlton’s record in class 2 Newbury handicaps on Saturday I’m going to once again concentrate largely on course records and meeting records here...

First let's see the 20 trainers with the best win percentage (left) and P&L (right) at York since 2009:

We can get more specific again by looking at trainer records in just August since 2009 to see their records at this meeting:

To summarise the above information, the following trainers are of particular interest at York in general:

Charlie Fellowes
William Haggas
Dean Ivory
David Griffiths
Ron Harris
Hugo Palmer
Michael Dods
Mick Hammond
Hughie Morrison
Paul Midgely

And the trainers to pay particular attention to in handicaps at the Ebor Festival are:

Tim Easterby*
Michael Dods*
John Best
Brian Ellison
Nigel Tinkler
Hughie Morrison
Hugo Palmer*
Eve Johnson Houghton
Tony Martin*

Those marked with an * have 3 or more wins to their name so could be more reliable.

So now let’s look at the handicaps over the first two days of the Ebor Festival and see where these trainers have entries:

Wednesday

1.45pm - 5.5f

Michael Dods - Jawwaal
William Haggas - Aplomb
Tim Easterby - Hyperfocus & Copper Knight

Jawwaal is unbeaten this season and his success at Doncaster on seasonal debut has been well advertised since. He was well drawn when winning at Ascot and has been hit with an 8lb rise in the weights.

Aplomb may find this 5.5f trip perfect having shown decent form over 5f and 6f this season but he’d want some rain to be seen at his absolute best.

The problem with both those runners is the pace bias at York which tends to favour those up with the pace, especially at shorter distances. Tim Easterby’s pair are both likely to be near the pace. Hyperfocus ran only on Sunday and is well handicapped but he’s another who would want a fair bit of rain. If that rain doesn’t arrive Copper Knight could be the most interesting of the quartet. He hasn’t been at his absolute best this season but he hasn’t been running badly either and he’s won four of his eleven starts here, including one off this mark.

3.45pm - 2m

John Best - Eddystone Rock

He has run poorly in both starts this season but is now 1lb lower than when winning this last year. He’s two from three here and the only defeat was a sixth placed finish in the John Smiths Cup in 2017. This looks a hot renewal of this race but if the return to the Knavesmire sparks a return to form he’s capable of going well at a nice price.

4.20pm - 5f

William Haggas - Dancin Inthestreet & Pink Sands
Nigel Tinkler - Princess Power

Dancin Inthestreet is undoubtedly a well handicapped horse on several bits of form this season but her run style is definitely going to mean she’ll have to be very handicapped to win this.

Pink Sands is likely to be much closer to the pace and has never run a bad race. She’ll probably appreciate the return to a more speed favouring track and after just four starts, we have almost certainly not seen the best of her.

Princess Power ran below par on Tuesday at Beverley and may end up a non runner here. She often runs well in defeat but probably wouldn’t be favoured by this speed test.

4.50pm - 6f

Nigel Tinkler - Cobweb Corner
Eve Johnson Houghton - Soldier Lions & The Princes Poet

Cobweb Corner ran well in a similar type of contest last time out and should be near the speed but this is almost certainly tougher than his last race so he’ll have to improve.

Soldier Lions has been 2nd on both starts this season but the form of his last race has had a few knocks. The Princes Poet also seems to have a lot to find but there are so many unknowns in a race of this nature that it wouldn’t be a shock if something suddenly improves.

Thursday

2.45pm - 1m

William Haggas - Montatham

This looks a really hot contest but Montatham is still improving and hopefully there will be enough juice in the ground for him to run after he was withdrawn from the Golden Mile at Goodwood due to fast ground.

Low draws are favoured over this distance so stall 2 is a positive and after this last win at Sandown the 2nd, 3rd, 5th and 7th have all come out and won since.

4.20pm - 7f

William Haggas - Mayaas

Improved on his 2nd start at Ascot, looking very much as if a step up in trip to this 7f would suit. He beat Minzaal that day who has come out and won impressively at Salisbury (well fancied for Friday’s Group 2 Gimcrack Stakes).

4.50pm - 7f

William Haggas - Lawahed
Tim Easterby - Excellent Times
Charlie Fellowes - Lady Of Aran

Lawahed is likely to be a warm favourite here on what could be a good day for William Haggas. She’s well bred and group 1 entered and clearly expected to be better than a rating of 85. That rating is more than deserved from her 3 starts so far but she won’t get an easy lead like last time.

Excellent Times won this at 66/1 last year which will have strongly contributed to Tim Easterby’s P&L in handicaps at this fixture. Has largely struggled since but has run well in three out of five course starts.

Lady Or Aran doesn’t always find as much as looks likely and is probably more consistent on the all weather. She doesn’t look brilliantly handicapped.

Friday

1.45pm - 1m4f

Tim Easterby - Dark Jedi

4.15pm - 1m2.5f

William Haggas - First Kingdom

4.50pm - 1m

William Haggas - Grand Rock & Cold Front & Johan
Michael Dods - Brunch

Saturday

2.25pm - 1m6f

William Haggas - Favorite Moon & A Star Above
Hughie Morrison - Kipps
Hugo Palmer - Eastern Sheriff
Tim Easterby - Fishable

3.40pm - 1m6f

William Haggas - Pablo Escobar & Monica Sheriff
Charlie Fellowes - Jeremiah
Tim Easterby - Glencadam Glory

4.40pm - 1m2.5f

William Haggas - Sinjaari
Tim Easterby - Aasheq
Mick Hammond - Irv

5.10 - 5f

Tim Easterby - Sunday Sovereign

It is by no means a sure thing that the selected trainers are the most likely winners of the races above but they have been amongst those with the best previous records at the course and at this meeting so it will be interesting to see how they get on.

It's a shame that more of the highlighted trainers haven't had runners here this year but we'll hopefully see them with entries at the remaining York fixtures this season.

Sat TV Trends: 15th Aug 2020

14 August 2020/in Racing Pointers, Trends/by Andy Newton

We’ve got all the trends & stats you need ahead of the LIVE ITV action from Newbury and Newmarket this Saturday.

Use these trends to whittle down the runners and find the best profile of past winners.

NEWMARKET Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

2.05 Betway Heed Your Hunch At Betway Handicap (Class 4) (3yo+ 0-85) 1m4f ITV4

10/10 – Returned 11/2 or shorter in the betting
10/10 – Had won over 1m2f or further before
9/10 – Carried 9-1 or more in weight
9/10 – Had run in the last 6 weeks
9/10 – Didn’t’ win last time out
8/10 – Drawn in stalls 3 (6) or 5 (2)
8/10 – Placed 5^th or better last time out
8/10 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
7/10 – Rated between 80 and 85
7/10 – Won just once before
6/10 – Ran at Newmarket (July) before
5/10 – Winning favourites

2.40 Betway Handicap Cl3 (3yo 0-90) 7f ITV

7/7 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
7/7 – Won between 1-3 times
7/7 – Carried between 9-1 and 9-7 in weight
5/7 – Had won over 7f before
5/7 – Placed favourites
5/7 – Rated between 79-81
6/7 – Finished in the top two last time out
5/7 – Won last time out
2/7 – Winning favourites
2/7 – Trained by David Barron

3.15 – Betway Grey Horse Handicap (for Grey Horses Only) Cl4 6f ITV

16/17 – Failed to win last time out
15/17 – Had won over 6f before
15/17 – Had 4 or more runs already that season
14/17 – Aged 5 or older
13/17 – Winning distance of 1 length or less
13/17 – Aged 5, 6 or 7 years-old
12/17 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
12/17 – Had 3 or more career wins
11/17 – Carried 9-1 or less
9/17 – Unplaced favourites
3/17 – Trained by Tony Newcombe
1/17 – Winning favourites
My Amigo (5/1) won the race in 2018
Case Key (8/1) won the race in 2017 and 2019

NEWBURY Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

1.50 – Denford Stakes (Registered as The Washington Singer Stakes) (Listed Race) Cl1 7f ITV

16/18 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
16/18 – Finished in the first three last time out
15/18 – Had won a race before
14/18 – Had won over 6 or 7f before
13/18 – Won by a Feb (7) or March (5) foal
12/18 – Winning distance 1 ¼ lengths or more
12/18 – Placed favourites
11/18 – Won last time out
10/18 – Horses from stall 3 placed
10/18 – Winning favourites (2 joint)
7/18 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
4/18 – Ran at Goodwood (2) or Sandown (2) last time out
4/18 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
4/18 – Won on their racecourse debut
4/18 – Trained by Mark Johnston
3/18 – Trained by John Gosden
2/18 – Ridden by Ryan Moore

2.25 - Unibet You're On Handicap Cl3 (3yo+ 0-105) 1m ITV

No previous runnings
Trainer William Haggas has a 39% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Jockey Jim Crowley has a 21% record riding 4+ year-olds at the track

3.00 – Irish Thoroughbred Marketing Geoffrey Freer Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 1m5f61y ITV

18/18 – Had won at least twice in their career
16/18 – Had won over 1m4f or further before
14/18 – Aged 3-5 years-old
13/18 – Finished 1^st or 2^nd last time out
13/18 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
12/18 – Drawn in stall 3 or higher
12/18 – Officially rated 110 or higher
12/18 – Winning distance of 1 ¼ lengths or more
11/18 – Ran at Goodwood (4) or Newmarket (6) last time out
10/18 – Winning favourites
8/18 – Had already won a Group race
7/18 – Had won at Newbury before
Technician (10/1) won the race in 2019

3.35 – Unibet Hungerford Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 7f ITV

16/18 – Didn’t win last time out
16/18 – Had won a Listed (6) or Group (9) race before
15/18 – Had won over this 7f trip before
15/18 – Officially rated 108 or more
15/18 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
14/18 – Had won 3 or more times already in their career
14/18 – Had 3 or more previous runs already that season
9/18 – Had run at Newbury before (4 won)
8/18 – Ran at Goodwood last time out
The last 11 winners were all draw 6 or lower
Just one winner from stall 1 in the last 11 runnings
Glorious Journey (10/3) won the race in 2019
Sir Dancealot won the race in 2018
Breton Rock won the race in 2014 and was third in 2015

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Trainer Stats Point To Tempus In Mile Handicap

14 August 2020/in Big Race Previews, Horse Racing Blog, Racing Pointers/by samdarby

The mile handicap at Newbury staged at 2.25pm on Saturday looks a relatively solvable puzzle with 10 runners set to go to post and plenty of reliable form on offer.

There are some top trainers represented here so let’s see how they have performed in Newbury handicaps over the past 5 years:

Trainer record in Newbury handicaps for trainers represented in this race

As you can see, William Haggas and Roger Charlton not only stand out from a win percentage perspective (30.91% and 26.67% respectively) but they are also the top trainers with representatives in this race when it comes to P&L (48.63 and 22.38 respectively). They are the only two of these trainers to have been profitable to follow blindly in handicaps.

Looking at class 2 handicaps specifically now:

Trainer record at Newbury in class 2 handicaps

Roger Charlton now jumps ahead of William Haggas with a 38.46% strike rate which is almost 3 times as strong as that of Haggas. Charlton is the only one of these trainers producing a profit in class 2 handicaps at Newbury and a very healthy profit at that (31 win profit).

The data is a bit more limited here but it certainly seems Roger Charlton is sending his better handicappers to Newbury whereas Haggas is mopping up some of the lower grade handicaps.

Let’s take a look at the runners from the Haggas and Charlton yards in this race. William Haggas runs Jahbath whilst Roger Charlton saddles Tempus.

Jahbath is 4 from 5 on the all weather and 0 from 2 on turf but that doesn’t tell the whole story. His turf runs have bookended his career to date with his debut effort coming at Salisbury in a race where he only narrowly lost out to Clara Peeters who would go on to rate in the high 80s. He was conceding experience and 6lbs on that day so it was clearly a strong effort.

His most recent turf run came after a 476 day break and although beaten more than 5 lengths, he was a creditable enough 4^th on soft ground at Haydock over this one mile trip. How much he’ll improve with that run under his belt on slightly better ground is difficult to gauge.

Tempus hasn’t run for 302 days which is an unknown so it’s worth comparing Roger Charlton’s record with fresh horses in handicaps with his overall handicap record.

Roger Charlton's record in handicaps since 2009 with runners returning from a 60+ day break

Roger Charlton's record in handicaps since 2009 with all runners

Since 2009 Roger Charlton has had 294 handicap runners returning from a 60+ day break and they have produced a 16.67% win rate and a 50.18 win P&L. Comparing that to all his handicap runners in this time, the strike rate is slightly improved at 17.95% but the P&L is –48.43. The market is clearly underestimating Roger Charlton horses after a break. It’s worth noting of course that a 302 day break is pretty extreme and the horse has obviously had some issues keeping him off the track.

Tempus has only had one run in handicap company and that was a slightly disappointing 4^th, beaten 1.5 lengths at Wolverhampton over their extended mile. He had previously beaten Lyndon B, subsequently rated 97, giving that horse 6lbs. Given Tempus only has a mark of 91 it’s probably a fair assumption that the most recent run wasn’t his best form and whatever issue caused him to miss 10 months of racing probably affected him during that race.

Roger Charlton’s record in Newbury handicaps, and Newbury class 2 handicaps in particular, are quite enlightening. The fact that the market seems to be offering value on his runners after a break adds confidence to the feeling that Tempus might be underestimated here. His most recent turf effort, in testing conditions, suggests he is well handicapped and he could take all the beating in this race on Saturday afternoon, which is live on ITV Racing.

Sat TV Trends: 8th Aug 2020

7 August 2020/in Racing Pointers, Trends/by Andy Newton

More LIVE ITV action this Saturday as the cameras head to Ascot, Haydock and Newmarket to take in seven races across the three venues.

We’ve four competitive handicaps at Ascot, while at Haydock the Group Three Lancaster Stakes is their feature. Then we’ve also one LIVE race at Newmarket’s July course – the Group Three Sweet Solera Stakes.

As always, we’ve got all the LIVE races covered with key trends and stats – use these to narrow down the runners and find the best profiles of past winners.

Ascot Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ ITV4)

1:50 - ITV Home Of Terrestial Racing Handicap Cl2 (3yo+ 0-105) 6f ITV4

No previous runnings
Trainer David Simcock is only 3 from 59 (5%) with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Richard Hannon is only 3 from 85 (4%) with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Hugo Palmer is 0 from 17 (0%) with this 4+ year-olds at the track

2:25 - Dubai Duty Free Millennium Millionaire Handicap Cl2 (4yo+ 0-100) 2m ITV4

No previous runnings
Trainer Roger Varian has a 15% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Ed Walker is only 1 from 30 (3%) with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Saeed Bin Suroor is only 1 from 35 (3%) with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer David O’Meara is only 5 from 127 (4%) with his 4+ year-olds at the track

3:00 - Thames Hospice Handicap Cl2 (4yo+ 0-105) 1m4f ITV4

Trainer Roger Varian has a 15% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Tom Dascombe is 0 from 15 with his 4+ year-olds at the track

3:35 - Virginia Water Handicap Cl2 (4yo+ 0-105) 1m4f ITV4

Trainer Roger Varian has a 15% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer David Simcock is only 3 from 59 (5%) with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Mick Channon is only 1 from 40 (3%) with his 4+ year-olds at the track

Haydock Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ ITV4)

2:05 - BetVictor British EBF Dick Hern Stakes (Listed Race) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 (3yo+) 1m ITV4

9/9 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
9/9 – Won between 1-3 times
8/9 – Didn’t win last time out
6/9 – Rated between 94-100
6/9 – Drawn between stalls 5-8
6/9 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
5/9 – Returned between 10/1 and 14/1
5/9 – Ran at Ascot or Newmarket last time out
3/9 – Trained by William Haggas
2/9 – Ridden by Andrea Atzeni
2/9 – Winning favourites
Miss O’Connor (11/10 fav) won the race in 2019

2:40 - BetVictor Rose Of Lancaster Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 (3yo+) 1m2f ITV4

17/17 – Aged 5 or younger
15/17 – Officially rated 105 or higher
13/17 – Yet to run at Haydock
14/17 – Favourites placed
14/17 – Aged either 3 or 5 years-old
14/17 – Winning distance – 1 ¼ or more
13/17 – Won a Listed or better class race before
13/17 – Won over 1m2f or further
13/17 – Raced 3 or more previous runs that season
11/17 – Officially rated between 105 and 110
12/17 – Won 3 or more times during their career
11/17 – Raced at either Newbury, York or Sandown last time out
10/17 – Priced 7/1 or shorter in the betting
9/17 – Finished unplaced in their last race
5/17 – Favourites that won
3/17 – Won by the Mark Johnston yard
2/17 – Won by Sir Michael Stoute yard
Addeybb (11/10 fav) won the race in 2019

Newmarket (July) Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ ITV4)

3:20 - Betway Sweet Solera Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies) Cl1 (2yo) 7f ITV4

16/17 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
15/17 – Priced 11/2 or shorter in the betting market
15/17 – Won by a Jan, Feb or March foal
14/17 – Placed in the top 3 in their last race
14/17 – Winners from the top 3 in the betting market
14/17 – Won just once previously
12/17 – Had won over only 6f previously
10/17 – Favourites placed
10/17 – Raced at Newmarket (July) previously
9/17 – Won their last race
9/17 – Raced at Newmarket (6) or Sandown (3) last time out
8/17 – Yet to win over 7f
8/17 – Favourites that won
7/17 – Had just one previous run
5/17 – Won by Godolphin
3/17 – Trained by the Hills stable
West End Girl (11/2) won the race in 2019
3 winners from stall 1 in the last 14 runnings
4 of the last 13 horses from stall 7 finished 1^st (2) or 2^nd (2)

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Ayr 6f Draw and Pace

Ayr Silver Cup – 2.30pm

King’s Lynn

Rathbone

Aplomb

Magical Spirit

Show Me Show Me

Ayr Gold Cup – 3.40pm

Staxton

Mr Lupton

Barbill

Bungee Jump

Final Thoughts

AYR Horse Racing Trends (ITV4/RacingTV)

1.55 – Jordan Electrics Doonside Cup Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 (3yo+) 1m2f ITV

3.05 – Scotty Brand Firth Of Clyde Stakes (Group 3) (for The Ayrshire Agricultural Challenge Cup) Cl1 6f ITV4

3.40 – QTS Ayr Gold Cup (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 6f ITV4

NEWBURY Horse Racing Trends (ITV4/RacingTV)

1.40 - Dubai International Airport World Trophy (Group 3) Cl1 5f34y ITV4

2.15 – Dubai Duty Free Handicap Cl2 (3yo+ 0-105) 1m2f ITV

2.50 –Dubai Duty Free Legacy Cup Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 1m3f5y ITV4

3.25 – Dubai Duty Free Mill Reef Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 6f8y ITV4

The Runners

King Ottaker

Teston

Another Touch

Firmanent

Magical Morning

Misty Grey

Aweedram

Matthew Flinders

Overwrite

Diocles Of Rome

Sandret

La Trinidad

Draw and Pace

Verdict

The Runners

Shabaaby

Chiefofchiefs

Byline

Musicality

Tranchee

Manigordo

Ghalyoon

Danzan

Edgewood

Broken Spear

Sunset Breeze

Pace and Draw

Verdict

The Runners

Milltown Star

Persuasion

Happy Bere

Lexington Dash

Eastern World

Mister Snowdon

Haqeeqy

Cold Front

Jumaira Bay

Broughton’s Gold

Ziggle Pops

National League

Black Caspian

Pace and Draw

Verdict

The Runners

Sky Defender

Pivoine

Dubai Horizon

Fox Power

Caradoc

Derevo

Rise Hall

Aasheq

Hypothetical

Data Protection

Starcat