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All-Weather Analysis: Chelmsford Racecourse

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As we move into September, the weather is starting to change, and my mind is drawn to the autumn and winter racing programme, writes Dave Renham. I will be looking at National Hunt racing in the near future but, before that, what follows is the first article in a new series focusing on the all-weather tracks. In it, I will dig into numerous key stats at the six UK all-weather tracks, as well as looking in detail for the first time at Dundalk in Ireland.

I will be using all-weather racing data from 1st January 2017 to 31st August 2022 when analysing the UK tracks, giving us the opportunity to examine a plethora of stats and angles. I have used the Geegeez Query Tool for all the data collection, and hence all profits / losses have been calculated to Industry Starting Price. However, as I have mentioned before we will be able to improve upon these figures by using either BOG, early prices or the exchanges.

I have shared stats about Chelmsford racecourse before in regards to running style, and also I have looked briefly at the draw, too. I will update both of these here, and there is a number of other areas I am going to look into as well. Let's start with running style.

Running Style (Pace) Bias at Chelmsford

When looking at run style, I have always focused on handicaps, and handicaps with fields of eight or more runners. In an article published in autumn last year (2021), the data strongly pointed to a front-running bias in races staged between 5f and 7f; the strongest bias was at the minimum trip, then seven furlongs, and then six furlongs. I have decided to share only the new data since I collated that article, which gives eleven months of results to analyse. Below are the win strike rates for front runners over these three trips in 8+ runner handicaps (1st Oct ’21 to 31st Aug ’22):

 

  

The figures correlate well with the longer term data, so in these types of races whoever leads early does have a clear edge. The A/E indices show a similar picture:

 

 

The 7f figure is slightly above the long term average figure, but that can happen with smaller samples.

What is clear is that there is a sliding scale in these races when it comes to run style – front runners have the advantage; prominent racers are next best and those mid division or held up are definitely at a disadvantage.

Before moving on, here is the long-term run style picture in terms of win strike rate across all distances at Chelmsford going back to the start of 2017 (8+ runner handicaps):

 

 

There's a strong correlation between race distance and front end advantage: generally, the shorter the distance the stronger the front-running bias; once we get to a mile and 1m2f the bias is minimal. At 1m 5f or further, front-runners are at a disadvantage.

 

Draw Bias at Chelmsford

Onto to the Chelmsford draw now, and for this area I will again be ignoring smaller fields and sticking to 8+ runner handicaps.

The racecourse map below shows the course is left handed and the lowest draws are positioned closest to the inside. Hence, over the shorter distances one would expect an advantage of some sort for lower drawn runners.

 

 

Chelmsford City Racecourse 5 furlong Draw Bias

When I look at the draw, my first port of call is to split the field into three thirds and compare the win percentages. Here are the relevant five furlong draw data for this distance going back to 2017:

 

 

An edge to lower drawn horses would have been expected (see above) although, considering the course configuration, it is a relatively modest one. These are the types of percentages one would have expected given that lower draws are closest to the inside rail and, therefore, have the least distance to travel around the turn. Another measure of draw bias is to look at the percentage of rivals beaten (PRB) from each stall position. These figures correlate with the win percentages as you will see below:

 

 

Those drawn 1 or 2 have a clear edge over the rest of the stall positions. Between those two berths, they have accounted for 40 winners from 128 races (31.3% of all races). Further, their PRB figures are a very high 56% (horses drawn 1) and 58% (drawn 2). Finally on these two draws, they have combined to make a small profit to SP of £23.09 which equates to nearly 10p profit for every £1 bet.

 

Chelmsford City Racecourse 6 furlong Draw Bias

Moving up a furlong to six furlongs, the win percentages across the three thirds are very even (low 36.1%; middle 30.7%; high 33.2%). However, the PRB figures suggest the lowest third does retain some sort of an edge:

 

 

Likewise combining win and placed results suggest this small edge does exist:

 

 

All in all, given the choice, I’d rather be drawn very low than middle to high over 6f.

 

Chelmsford City Racecourse 7 furlong Draw Bias

The low third come out slightly better at this distance, too, with the PRB for the low third (inside draws) standing at 0.53 (53% of rivals beaten) versus the high third’s figure of 0.46 (46%). Anything above 0.55 is a material positive bias while anything below 0.45 is a negative bias.

 

Chelmsford City Racecourse 1 Mile Draw Bias

In my recent series of articles on draw bias, this mile trip was highlighted as having a relatively strong bias. Here are the draw splits in terms of win percentages:

 

 

Perhaps it's because mile races start in a chute and they race almost directly into a dogleg bend that figures are similar to the 5f statistics at this range, as are the PRB figures:

 

 

It seems therefore that over 5f and 1m - the two distances where the field races very quickly into a bend - we have a playable draw bias, albeit perhaps not of Chester proportions. Essentially over these two trips (and to a lesser extent over 6f and 7f), we would prefer a lower draw than a middle or high one. And especially if combined with a forward going run style.

For the remainder of this article I will be using all race data, not just 8+ runner handicaps.

 

Top Trainers at Chelmsford Racecourse

I have delved into trainer stats quite a lot recently and the advantage of all-weather tracks, from a punting perspective, is that each year there is a huge number of meetings. This gives a bigger data set and, when it comes to trainer stats, I think that is very important. There are 93 trainers who saddled 70 or more runners during the study period and here are the top 15 in terms of win strike rate. As I mentioned, this incorporates ALL races, both handicaps and non handicaps:

 

 

John Gosden at Chelmsford Racecourse

Five of the 15 trainers in the table have been profitable to SP. Seven have A/E indices in excess of 1.00, indicating that their runners have offer bettors some value. It is worth looking at a couple of these handlers in more detail, starting with the Gosden stable. Here are John's (and, more recently, with his son Thady) most noteworthy stats:

  1. Older horses (aged 4+) have provided ten winners from 22 (SR 45.5%) for a small profit of £5.17 (and a large ROI +23.5%).
  2. Horses priced 5/1 or shorter have produced a win% strike rate of 33.7% thanks to 67 winners from 199 runners. Backing all such runners would have yielded a small profit of £13.26 (ROI +6.7%). Compare this to horses 11/2 or bigger in price, where only two of the 79 runners won, producing disastrous losses of nearly 80 pence in the £.
  3. Frankie Dettori on Gosden runners at Chelmsford has won on 13 of his 26 mounts. How often they'll combine this winter remains to be seen, however.
  4. Gosden’s front runners have won 36.5% of their races, while those held up have won just 15.6%.

 

Richard Hughes at Chelmsford Racecourse

Richard Hughes has a very solid looking record with a one-in-five win ratio and an A/E index of 1.22. In fact, Hughes has been extremely consistent and this can be illustrated by comparing his A/E indices each year (see graph below):

 

 

All six years have been above the magic 1.00 figure. He looks a trainer to potentially follow at the course. Here are some of Hughes's strongest snippets:

  1. His record in handicaps is very good – 39 winners from 169 (SR 23.1%) for a very healthy profit of £73.29 (ROI +43.4%).
  2. Hughes is happy to put a claiming jockey on board his runners and they have performed marginally better than professional jockeys, with 19 wins from 84 (SR 22.6%) producing returns of 36p in the £.
  3. His biggest priced winner was 22/1 and he has had an even spread of winners across the price ranges. Horses priced 5/1 or shorter have been a good group for him, as with the Gosden stable; 36 wins from 117 runners (SR 30.8%) for a profit of £21.36 (ROI +18.3%).

 

Trainers to Beware at Chelmsford Racecourse

Before moving on, here are the trainers with the poorest win strike rates ( all below 7%). It is always worth being aware of trainers that struggle under certain circumstances:

 

 

It is interesting to see Richard Fahey in this list. Fahey is not usually a trainer seen this low down the pecking order, and it is not a short trip from North Yorkshire to the Essex showgrounds. Worryingly, he has had 56 runners that started in the top four of the betting and only six of them won. These runners would have produced losses of over 56 pence in the £.

Other notable names in the list are George Boughey and Robert Eddery, both of whose A/E figures are very weak.

 

Gender bias at Chelmsford Racecourse?

There has always been a slight gender bias when it comes to flat racing with male horses out-performing females. This bias has traditionally been slightly more pronounced in all-weather racing as compared to the turf. For whatever reason, it may not be as strong now as 15 to 20 years ago, but it does still exist, including at Chelmsford, as the table below indicates.

 

 

The differences may look relatively modest, but they are significant enough that we, as punters, should be aware of them. A lower strike rate would be forgiven in exchange for a higher ROI but, as can be seen, all data are less appealing than the male cohort. Additionally, when we break this data down further by age group we get the following:

 

 

Colts and geldings clearly outperform fillies at 2, 3 and 4 years old but, as the horses get older, it seems to level out.

The A/E indices back this up with excellent correlation with the strike rates:

 

 

It will be fascinating to see if any of the other courses display a similar pattern when it comes to age and gender.

 

Market factors at Chelmsford Racecourse

As we know the betting market is extremely efficient and favourites, for example, have a similar strike rate across all courses. Having said that, there are some differences that will become apparent over this series of individual racetrack articles. Let’s examine Chelmsford in more detail from a market perspective.

Firstly let me take a look at the win strike rates for different positions in the betting; starting with favourites and moving down to position 8th or lower:

 

 

A sliding scale, as one would expect, but the win percentage for favourites is slightly higher than the average for all flat courses (34.21% compared with an overall average of just under 33%). This graph also shows how rare it is for outsiders to be successful: those outside of the top five in the market have collectively won less than once every nine races; or, put another way, the top five in the betting win eight out of every nine races at Chelmsford on average.

A look at the A/E indices now:

 

 

The value clearly lies with the top two in the betting at Chelmsford, or has done so during the period of study at least. Favourites lost just 4p in the £ to SP and actually made a small profit to Betfair SP.

Two-year-old favourites have the best strike rate of all age groups at just under 41% and they have made a small profit of 4p in the £ to SP, though this may simply be coincidence. That said, if you singled out 2yo favourites that were also top rated on the Peter May speed ratings (published here on geegeez and available to research in Query Tool) you would have had 102 qualifiers, of which 48 won (SR 47.1%) for a healthy profit of £24.33 (ROI +23.9%). For the record, all 300 2yos that topped the speed ratings (regardless of market rank) also made a small blind profit which is impressive.

Before leaving the market / price data section, it should be noted that huge prices have a dismal record at the course. There have been 1969 horses priced 50/1 or bigger and just eight have won. Losses of £1445 would have occurred if backing them, which equates to over 73p in every 3 bet.

 

Who Are The Best Sires at Chelmsford City Racecourse?

A look at performance by sire at Chelmsford now. Here are the top ten sires in terms of strike rate since 2017 (150 runs or more to qualify):

 

 

The top two in the list, Dubawi and Lope De Vega, edged into profit but both have had a big-priced winner which has skewed their stats (Dubawi at 40/1 and Lope De Vega at 33/1). Three of the ten have A/E indices above 1.00, with four more just below that figure. These seven sires - Lope De Vega, Oasis Dream, Dark Angel, Lethal Force, Mastercraftsman, Dutch Art and Showcasing – are worth scrutinising when researching a race at Chelmsford. One other sire, not listed in the table above, has an A/E index of over 1.00 and that is Swiss Spirit. His figure of 1.02 is clearly decent (overall win strike rate stands at 10.7%) and he's another worth looking out for.

A sire that did not make the list due to insufficient progeny runs is Frankel. His record, though, is also worth sharing as he has hit a strike rate of 21.3% thanks to 27 winners from 127 runners.

I also looked briefly at the damsire data and remarkably, and perhaps significantly, Dubawi had the highest strike rate there, too (at 15.9%). Only two damsires have A/E indices of over 1.00 and they are Rock of Gibraltar (1.28) and Danehill (1.11).

 

Chelmsford Racecourse Horses for courses

Let me finish by looking at some horses that have excelled at Chelmsford since 2017. To qualify for the list they must have won at least four races at the track with a strike rate of 25% or more. Also they must have raced somewhere in the UK in 2022. Here are the horses that qualify. I have included a PRB column, too (Percentage of rivals beaten):

 

 

Krazy Paving, who heads the list, has also been placed a further three times at the track. Furthermore, he has the highest PRB figure, an impressive 0.81. Any horse in that list appearing at Chelmsford in the next few months is definitely worth at least a cursory glance, especially those with the highest PRB figures.

We all know racing is not a simple game – there is no easy shortcut to making long term profits. But I hope the statistics shared in this piece of research will be an aid to you when tackling races at Chelmsford in the near future. Please share any big successes with us in the future – my cut is only 25%! 😉

- DR

Monday Musings: The Brigadier and The Major

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What is or was your favourite flat racehorse? Once that is revealed the inevitable question, certainly to my own favourite, is why, or more likely, who was he?

I have been unequivocal about mine for more than 60 years. I had already played my first game at Lord’s for London Federation of Boys Clubs when Hethersett, owned by Major Lionel B Holliday, prepared by his private trainer, Major Dick Hern, was one of seven horses to fall in the 1962 Derby won by Vincent O’Brien’s Larkspur.

Hethersett, winner of the three-runner Brighton Derby Trial – oh for that race to be brought back! – beating the smart pair River Chanter and Heron (he of the Sandown race of renown) in a canter so that on just his fourth career start he was 9/2 favourite in the 28-horse line-up.

After the fall at Epsom he came back with a poor run on firm ground in the Gordon Stakes but then three months on from achieving one ambition, I was to taste my first example of a “touch”, three winners in a “Trixie” all in a day on holiday in Bournemouth with my parents and an aunt and uncle. They had grown-up things to do. I played pitch and putt alone at Tuckton Bridge at nearby Christchurch then got to a betting shop in Bournemouth that didn’t mind under-age customers, in time for racing.

I forget how much I collected after the wins of Hethersett (Great Voltigeur); Sostenuto, owned by Phil Bull, in the Ebor; and, Persian Wonder (later a multiple champion stallion in South Africa) in the Falmouth Handicap, but it brought a “put it away!” from my mum when I surreptitiously showed the wad to her from the table behind as we sat down for supper in a café that night.  After York I thought Hethersett was my sure thing then for the St Leger and he duly obliged at a nice price, too.

The Major Holliday thing was reinforced when a schoolfriend, Sim Galpert, proved to have an even deeper obsession with the Huddersfield industrialist, whose family firm eventually became ICI and lately Zeneca. One of the business’s biggest claims to fame was that they manufactured 11 million tons of TNT and never had a single loss of life in their factories.

Sim would bang on about the Holliday breeding – all the foals had the same initial as the stallions, Hethersett from Hugh Lupus and a later champion, Vaguely Noble, was by Vienna. Although we lost touch when we both left Central Foundation Grammar School in 1965, I’m sure the white, maroon hoop, armlets and cap stayed with him as they did with me.

Casualties were far more common in the irascible Major’s racing operation. Trainers came and went and at the end of 1962 Dick Hern abandoned ship and moved to West Ilsley, previously the base for Jack Colling who was retiring. I remember with all the venom of youth, regarding Dick Hern as a traitor, an opinion reinforced when Darling Boy, one of the horses he’d taken over, beat Hethersett on the St Leger winner’s four-year-old debut in the Jockey Club Stakes at Newmarket.

He never won in three starts under the name of S J Meaney, the head lad in Hern’s time, Holliday himself effectively the trainer then, and retired to stud for a brief but successful career. He sired Arthur Budgett’s Derby winner, Blakeney, before dying soon after from a brain haemorrhage, caused in Hern’s opinion by the effects of that fall in the Classic.

While Sim and I have never spoken in almost 60 years, two other long-standing friends and fellow racing obsessives have stayed in contact. One of them, Peter Ashmore, called to see if I was going to be at Tattersalls sales last Wednesday, and when I said I would he brought me a book of which he was gushing in his praise.

It is called Brigadier Gerard and Me by Laurie Williamson, published by Brigustbooks and is sub-titled, A Personal Journey Through Horse Racing. Chunky, large and with print comfortably sized for senior readers, it has a cover price of £14.99 and extends to 524 pages. Peter said once he started reading the book he couldn’t put it down. I opened it on Friday morning and finished it at Sunday lunchtime.

Laurie was Brigadier Gerard’s groom throughout his entire time in the Hern stable, getting him at the start of his two-year-old year by a fluke – effectively none of the senior lads there cared for his owners, John and Jean Hislop.

This is where my other pal, of even longer duration than Peter, comes in. He is George Learoyd Hill, like me from the London Borough of Hackney, but with a far more interesting life than mine to tell. That said, he says the same about mine.

George’s racing interest was even more immediate than mine and he still had three of his teenage years in hand when he started work at Turf Newspapers in Curzon Street, W1. There, various members of the Jockey Club would pop in and out, taking George under their wing. Old Etonians almost to a man, their number regularly included John Hislop, whom George often spoke to.

Later we were colleagues for seven years at the Daily Telegraph, before George moved on but we’ve stayed firmly in touch. A man with thousands of racing books in his possession, I’m sure this one will be winging its way to him before Peter gets it back.

Like George, Peter and me, Laurie Williamson had a father who initiated and then shared the interest in racing. When the young man had the good fortune to land on Brigadier Gerard it was the incentive for him to stay with the horse for the whole of his career which coincided with the conclusion of his five-year apprenticeship.

Unlike the three of us, Laurie had the wherewithal to keep a detailed diary, so that many of the incidents that would have been confined to the dustbin of a fading memory have been retained in full focus.

John, and especially Jean Hislop, the breeders and owners of Brigadier Gerard, come out as off-hand or even rude and when confronted by the young man who cared day and night for their champion, they never had the slightest interest in giving his opinion house room.

Laurie, after the entirety of the horse’s career, reflected that he had only attempted to speak to John Hislop three times, twice being completely ignored. The one time he did get a reply was before the 2,000 Guineas where although third favourite, the Brigadier beat Mill Reef and My Swallow, the two other champions of that incredible 1971 Classic crop. Laurie asked Hislop what chance he thought Brigadier Gerard had of beating Mill Reef and was told, “if he doesn’t beat him today, he never will!”

On the other hand, Lord Rotherwick, owner of Duration, the other horse Laurie cared for throughout the same period, was very popular with the lads, always talking to them enthusiastically when his horses ran. He was the exception rather than the rule in those days of Military-type discipline and deference in racing stables.

Through the book it became clear that the relationship between Major Hern and the Hislops was not harmonious. Over time their insistence on planning his races themselves rather than taking full notice of Hern’s undoubted skill and knowledge, possibly, in Williamson’s opinion at any rate, was a contributory factor in his sole career defeat in the 1972 Benson and Hedges (now Juddmonte) Cup, his 16th race of 18.

A winner from five furlongs to a mile and a half, Brigadier Gerard has only recently, 50 years on, been given the full credit in ratings terms by Timeform, one of several well-thought-out themes in a book which tries with some success to argue his charge as superior to contemporary Mill Reef, predecessors Ribot and Sea Bird II, Nijinsky, his senior by one year and the sole Triple Crown winner since Bahram in 1935 and more recent superstars Dancing Brave, Sea The Stars and Frankel.

He has an analytical and form-based method, one formulated with those many hours’ studying with his father the implications of the Brigadier’s training and racing. The one regret for me is that he didn’t ask someone like me, a racing person with journalistic, editing experience to run an eye over the finished copy.

Having grown up for all those Fleet Street days, including editing stories from Peter Scott and John Oaksey, two of the most oft-quoted writers in Laurie’s formidable offering, with the Daily Telegraph style book, I can be very pedantic – when I remember, even that was a while ago!  Laurie’s book suffers from a comical treatment of possessives to the extent it can halt the flow of consciousness. Happily, though, it never stops the marvelling at this work of a lifetime. Also, the detailed index has all the names, but as Eric Morecambe might have said: “Not necessarily in the right order”! Or matching the pages where they are alleged to be found either in some cases! That index needs another look, too.

I won’t go any further to spoil what I promise is a great read. I knew what was coming for almost of all of it, names, race distances and the like from half a century ago. But then it was still early in my time in racing journalism, and long-term memory beats short-term by a distance, almost in Brigadier Gerard fashion! Younger readers will also find it enthralling.

In conclusion, Laurie confesses he was ready for some time to leave what was basically a five-year term of virtual slavery. It was only the good fortune of having a great horse – in his and probably my opinion, the greatest of them all - to live with, and a boss he respected, to a degree, that kept him there. The dream of getting rides soon evaporated for most of the 18 apprentices promised as such that tended to be there at any time. Despite that, he says it was a period in his life he would never have changed as it brought him in contact with Jill, his wife and mother and grandmother to their children.

When Brigadier Gerard retired back where it all started at Egerton Stud in Newmarket for his career as a stallion, Laurie travelled with the horse in the box from West Ilsley and said his farewells. Later, John Hislop, having heard that Williamson was quitting the yard and going out of racing, issued a decree banning Laurie from ever visiting the horse in his new home. He never again saw the horse that had been the entire raison d’etre of his life for three whole seasons. Nice man, that John Hislop!

Dick Hern was a man of the old school, and his two principal friends among the racing press, Peter Scott, Hotspur of the Telegraph, and Michael Seely of the Times, were allowed where all others were not.

I recall rather fortunately getting to him first after Henbit won the Derby in 1980. I asked him what he thought about Henbit and the race. Deadpan, with no hint of excitement, just a little supressed pride, he said: “He’s a nice horse. I always liked him. That was a good race.” Get the book and see what life was like for boys in stables half a century ago. Laurie survived it and should be proud of the volume he produced. If you’re reading this, Laurie, and you have a re-print in the pipeline, let me correct those irritating literals and that baffling index!

- TS

Roving Reports: Ebor Action!

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York is the last major Flat festival that I'll work this year (I don't do Doncaster) and it's one that I look forward to more than most, writes David Massey. Yes, it's four days away from home, which is never ideal, but it's always a great atmosphere, and although it is hard work on the Saturday, it never really feels like it.

I'm picked up at half past nine on the Wednesday and it does not take us long to encounter our first issue. The A1 Northbound, a difficult road to navigate at the best of times, is blocked and that means taking the long way round up the M1. This, my friends, is why you set off stupidly early for the races when you're working, as you have to allow an hour for eventualities such as these. The last thing you want to do for a big meeting is miss the pick for your pitch, which for York is 90 minutes before the first each day.

There's a load of gear to hump on once we get there, but once the joint is in situ, we won't have to move it again until Saturday night, another blessing. Not only is the joint heavy but the wheels are broken, and moving the thing is akin to trying to get a wonky supermarket trolley full of concrete blocks heading in the right direction.

I've also got written work to do for the week and head to the Press Room once I'm in. It's hot, and my hat, which looks not unlike that of a cricket umpire's, is attracting some sharp comments from a certain bookmaker's PR man. That's sarcasm, better.

Anyway, suncreamed up and ready to go, the first race is almost a make-or-break one for me for the week, personally. I've had way too much on Makanah each-way here and whilst I'm tempted to lay a little off, I decide to let the majority of it run, and it's more a sigh of relief than satisfaction when he finishes fifth. Thank the Lord for extra places, that's what I say.

A round of applause to whoever does the walk-in music at York, here. Normally, you get some generic nonsense as the winner comes back in - We Are The Champions, Simply The Best, you know the sort - but as Bergerac comes back in, we get the accordion-tinged theme to the 80s detective show that he's named after. This is very pleasing to my ears, and once again, York leads the way whilst others flail in their wake. Keep it up!

Neither Chaldean winning the Acomb nor Deauville Legend the Voltigeur are any good to us, but now it's the Juddmonte and Baaeed time. Will the heavy hitters come out to play? Not with us, as it turns out, but they are around and next door take a £5k bet at 2-5. There's barely a moments worry for the punter as Baaeed saunters clear, quashing any stamina doubts in the process, for a very easy win. He's some horse, and who is to say he won't get the Arc trip? I look forward to Derek Thompson referring to Jim Crowley as "Baaeed's jockey" for the next decade.

Results get no better as the well-backed Alfred Boucher wins the next, before Designer at 14-1 provides some respite. Not for long though, as the 7-2 jolly Streets Of Gold wins the last, and the punters are on top after day one.

We're in the usual digs at Sherburn for the week, and tonight is curry night. Great idea at the time, but not when you wake with heartburn at three in the morning and you've left the Gaviscon at home.

Thursday. I don't fancy much on the card, so when my friend James does his Placepot for the day I ask if I can throw a score in, just for something to watch. He's more than happy to let me, and we've 108 pound lines running for us.

When the 25 poke Swingalong wins the first, followed home by 20-1 rag Queen Me and 11-1 Matilda I assume that's my £20 up in smoke. But no! James, in his wisdom, has put Queen Me in, and with 95% of the Placepots dead and buried after that result, the day has suddenly become a bit more interesting.

It is very noticeable that the crowd is a small one today, much smaller than would usually be the case. It can't be the weather, which is again glorious, so we can only assume the train strike, on today, is having a major impact. So poor is the business that the results hardly matter, which is just as well, with the next three favourites all going in. Excitingly, we are still in the placepot after four legs though, and a four-figure payout looks likely if we can hit it.

When Time Lock goes clear with winner Haskoy in the next then I know we're going into the last leg with two chances. Sadly for us, one of the chances, XJ Rascal, is a non-runner, and that puts us on One Nation instead. Neither myself nor James likes One Nation. I do the sensible thing and lay One Nation for a place, as if it does go belly-up I'll at least have a consolation prize.

It's a good job I did, as neither One Nation nor Scholarship, our other selection, make any impression and the rollercoaster ride comes to an abrupt halt. The placepot pays over £2,700. I can hear the voice of my good lady in my head - "it's why I hate Placepots, there's always one leg lets you down, isn't there?" - but I've had my twenty quid's worth of fun out of the afternoon. Always tomorrow.

Friday comes and on the way to the Press Room I catch sight of Rob Speechley, another of the books, on the Champagne Lawn. Rob has a pitch at York but only uses it for the Ebor meeting, treating the week as something of a leisure week for himself and partner Vanessa. I'm invited for a glass of champagne ("£45 quid for a bottle of Moët? You're almost stealing it" - Rob) and feel it would be rude to turn him down. So rather than doing any work, I've rather been waylaid by Rob and as he refills my glass, I'm wondering whether the firm would really miss me this afternoon if I just stayed here and punted the day away? That question is answered very quickly as the boss walks past, sees the glass in my hand, mutters "press room my ar*e, get yourself on that joint" and walks off laughing.

Whereas Thursday's crowd was disappointing, Friday's exceeds our expectations. It's as if those that couldn't come yesterday have made up for it by coming today instead. I'm next to Paul Johnson today (although once he knew he'd be next to me, he wanted to move pretty quickly, it must be said. Maybe it's my deodorant?) so there should be a few laughs along the way, and on the other side I've got Phil and his wife Cheryl from the West Mids. They're lovely people too, and whilst I chat greyhounds with Phil (he stands at Monmore), Cheryl seems more interested in the "power salad" I've purloined from the press room. She's clearly after snaffling it. I tell her she can have one tomorrow, which seems to pacify her.

So we've got a crowd, can we get a result or two? Farhan is a good start, although Dark Jedi hitting the frame - one of those York horses they all latch on to every time it runs here; see also Copper Knight, Our Little Pony, Escobar, Dakota Gold - hardly helps matters.

Then the almost inevitable announcement that Trueshan is out of the Lonsdale Cup. We'd been betting for about five minutes before the announcement was made, so it wasn't a disaster in that sense as most people had still to bet, but the race has a different shape to it now. Next door, Paul had just taken a lump on it as well, which he has to give back. Someone's quick off the mark and has an £1100-£800 Coltrane with me, but that stays in the bag as Quickthorn takes off and doesn't see another rival.

Noble Style is no good in the next and suffice to say the good people of Yorkshire back their own Highfield Princess in the Nunthorpe. The payout queue is a long one. We have to wait until the last and Point Lynas before we get a result, although the resultant 20-minute hiatus for the stewards enquiry after does not improve anyone's mood.

Ebor day comes around. I'm back on the Champagne Lawn early doors, although this time the boss is with me. Not before he's had to hire a tie, though. You don't get on the Champagne Lawn without a tie, but York are on hand to lend you one for a tenner deposit, which seems fair enough. Rob and I chat about our upcoming visit to Yarmouth's Eastern Festival, for which I'll be working for him on the first day, as his right-hand man is having his 40th birthday and has been barred from going anywhere near a racecourse by his missus. I suspect she has something planned, something that probably does not involve a day at Yarmouth Races.

The champagne puts me in a good mood for the afternoon and after making Cheryl's day by delivering her her salad (some women are easily pleased, it occurs to me) we get betting. It's a great crowd, here to enjoy themselves and the racing, and Alflaila gets plenty of them off to a good start. They play it up on Soulcombe and my float is much depleted. Then, disaster strikes...

Remember how, in the last article, a fellow bookmaker couldn't get his board to work just as the Stewards Cup betting got underway? Well, we've now got that, only worse. We realise, too late, that the bets are not coming through from our second pitch into the master book. This means the payout on the last could be even worse, as we can't see their book. The computers are not talking to one another, we can't change prices, and the whole thing is a catastrophe. However, we aren't the only ones. Other books are now having a similar problem, and I field a phone call from a book on the rails, asking me if I'm also having communication issues. It doesn't take a genius to work out that the wifi is suddenly struggling, and the signal is awful. This spells bad news for any books with multiple pitches on the track. People are rushing around trying to work out what their liabilities are, and whether they need to bet anything back. I'm basically on my own here, as Colin is trying to fix everything on the other joint, and whilst I'm not exactly panicking, I'm flat out trying to get everyone on.

The cavalry arrives in the shape of Kev Myles, himself a bookmaker but only at York on a day out. He comes to punch the bets in for me, and I'm so appreciative of the help.

The bets finally come through from race 2 about 45 minutes after it has finished. Luck is on our side, as their book has won £200. We say a silent prayer, thankful of the disaster that's been averted, and crack on with the Ebor.

When Frankie Dettori wins a big race you know full well there's going to be a long payout queue and Trawlerman is no exception, particularly as the Frankie fans were playing it up after Kinross's City Of York win half an hour earlier. It's still a reasonable result for us though, with best-backed Gaassee well beaten, later found to be lame.

It is noticeable how much trade drops off after the Ebor. This tends to happen most years, but it's very noticeable this time around. Again, there are train strikes on the day, which don't seem to have affected the size of the crowd but maybe some have to go early, as the rattlers are stopping running around 6pm. Miss your train and it could prove expensive, and many are deciding to be cautious about travel home.

Which is just as well, as neither Summerghand, who finally gets his head in front this year, nor Phantom Flight, sent off jolly for the lucky last, are any good to us and as at Goodwood, a winning favourite for the last means a happy crowd as they traipse out the exits. The York bagpiper is giving it his all, and "When The Saints Go Marching In" is going down a storm with the well-refreshed audience.

Where next? Well, Yarmouth, of course, and three of my favourite racing days of the year. See you on the coast...

- DM

Fancy owning a racehorse and a share of £100,000?

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That's a tempting carrot being dangled as part of geegeez' latest racehorse syndicate.

Shares are available now in this handsome three-year-old gelding purchased at the Goffs Spring Store Sale in May.

A strapping son of Black Sam Bellamy, he is eligible for the £100,000 Goffs Sales Bumper in March and his trainer was keen to make the entry.

If this sounds interesting, here's what you need to know:

 

The Horse

This as yet unnamed 2019 gelding is by the same sire as the likes of The Giant Bolster, Sam Spinner, Sam Brown, Sams Profile, and Tidal Flow.

The dam, his mother, is a mare called Behra who was smart herself: Listed placed over a trip on the flat as well as winning a 17-runner Newbury maiden, and beautifully Aga Khan-bred.

 

Behra herself has produced six winners so far, including Grade 2 winner Baradari and the winning machine Barizan, who was second in the both the Triumph Hurdle and the G1 juvenile hurdle at Aintree before winning the Punchestown Grade 1 juvenile.

Our gelding's full pedigree is available at this link

Since the sale he's been ridden up the gallops, and had a jump over a barrel showing a really good attitude and aptitude for the job. He's a lovely, big and strong athletic type. Of course, he's done nothing serious yet but it's very much a case of so far, so good. He's had a short break and is now ready to come back in and continue his development. The plan for him is in the section below.

One of the first things we'll need to do is give him a name - syndicate members will be invited to make suggestions after which we'll vote to decide what this fellow will be called!

 

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The Trainer

He was sourced, and will be trained, by Anthony Honeyball, who is based on the Dorset/Somerset border. Anthony has been a progressive trainer over the past decade or so and has his biggest and best team this season, improvements in terms of both the quality and quantity of horses in the yard.

Anthony has been responsible for the careers of the likes of Sam Brown (same sire) and Regal Encore, both firm yard favourites, and has been a regular in the winners' circle at the Aintree and Punchestown Festivals in the past few seasons.

Importantly, he's an expert with young store horses like this one, and has a better than one-in-four win rate in bumpers during the past five years (36 from 132, 27%, at time of writing).

Anthony has trained lots of winners for geegeez.co.uk syndicates including the Listed-winning bumper mare, Coquelicot, and we very much believe this chap will join that club.

 

The Plan

The plan for this season is geared towards the spring, and specifically the Goffs £100,000 race. In order to try our luck there, we'll probably need to have a prior race a month or so beforehand though it's not inconceivable we could go straight to Newbury. He will be coming back in from the field in the next week or so where, as you can see below, he's been having a good time bulking up on the grass cover, and he'll start his work routine immediately thereafter.

 

Beginning with steady canters on the round gallop, he'll move through the gears both there and on Anthony's searching - and picturesque -  Seaborough gallop (see below) until he's ready for a run. It is quite possible he will also have an 'away day' on a racecourse somewhere prior to his debut.

 

We expect he'll be ready to race in February or early March but, of course, it's very hard to be precise about such things. He won't be rushed as his future will be as a chaser, graduating through hurdle races en route. It's an exciting path with plenty to look forward to in the spring and maybe, just maybe, he might trouble the judge in that valuable sales race.

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The Details

He's being syndicated into twelfth shares at £3,050 covering all fees until the end of March 2023, including grass, training, transport, vet, agent and sales fees incurred to date. A two-part payment plan is available if that helps.

Training dues of £190/month start on 1st April 2023, so there's every chance he'll have run before the first monthly contribution is required. Who knows, he may even have picked up a very healthy prize cheque by then!

All VAT is reclaimed and returned to the syndicate account, and members receive a full pro rata percentage of prize money as well as, in the case of a sale, any sales proceeds.

As an owner, you'll be entitled to all of the privileges associated with that status: access to the owners' and trainers' facility at racecourses when our lad runs, as well as the parade ring and, hopefully, winner's enclosure. Additionally, you'll be able to visit the yard and see him work either as part of an arranged group event or by appointment on your own/with a friend or partner. And you'll receive regular updates via WhatsApp and email with videos and bulletins on his progress throughout.

Importantly, you'll be able to follow the career of a racehorse up close and personal as he progresses through the National Hunt disciplines.

To register your interest, click here.

Trainers with older runners (4 and up)

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In this sixth and final piece in the trainer performance by age jigsaw, I will be looking at the how trainers have fared with their with older runners, specifically those aged four and upwards. As with the previous articles in the series I have used UK flat racing data from 1st January 2016 to 31st December 2021 giving us six full seasons to examine. The results include turf and all weather racing.

I have used the Geegeez Query Tool once more for all  data analysis, and all profits / losses have been calculated to Industry Starting Price, although as we know these figures will be improved using either BOG, early prices or the exchanges.

Let us start by specifically looking at trainer performance with four-year-olds only.

General trainer performance with 4yo runners 

Many top trainers lose their stable stars at the end of their 3yo campaign, usually to stud or to race overseas, but a few top quality animals continue domestically into their fourth year.  Here are the top 20 trainers in terms of strike rate with their 4yo runners (minimum 150 runs). The data include both handicap and non-handicaps. It should be noted that the vast majority of races that 4yos compete in are handicaps:

 

 

There is a smattering of profitable trainers here; six to be exact. This includes the Gosden stable, and they have also secured the highest win strike rate. Nine of the 20 have achieved an A/E index of 1.00 or more suggesting that their runners have been good value as a whole. While on the subject of A/E indices, here are the remaining trainers who have achieved an A/E index of over 1.00.

 

 

That's another 15 trainers, making 24 in total. The chart includes several names we have not seen too often before and I would put many of these in the underrated trainer category.

Before digging into some of the individual trainers in more detail I want to look at a different measure of 4yo performance. To wit, I am going to focus on the top ten trainers in the table and look at the percentage of their runners that won at least one race as a 4yo. The reason for doing this is that some trainer figures can be skewed a little if they have winners of multiple races in their yard. To calculate this we take the number of a trainer’s 4yos that won at least once as a 4yo and divide it by all the horses that ran as a 4yo; that gives a decimal and then we multiply it by 100 to give the percentage. Here are the findings:

 

 

Four trainers have secured percentages in excess of 50% with Chris Dwyer hitting a very impressive 75%. It should be noted Dwyer has only had 24 individual 4yo runners in total but for 18 of them to win at least once is very impressive. Of the six that didn’t manage a win as a 4yo, five made the frame at least once. William Haggas is close to the 60% mark which, considering he has saddled 126 four-year-olds in the study period, is impressive. At the other end of the scale, Charlie Appleby’s and Team Crisford’s figures are lower than expected.

Now, of course, these figures could also be skewed if several 4yos in a stable have run just once or twice in the season. However, looking at the overall data, most trainers have similar spreads when it comes to number of runs for their horses.

 

Individual Trainer Performance with Four-Year-Olds

Moving back to individual trainers and their overall performance, let me drill down first into the performance of John and Thady Gosden. Here are some key stats:

  1. If you had backed all Gosden 4yo runners at Betfair SP the profit would stand at £73.24 equating to returns of 18p in the £.
  2. Their female 4yo runners have performed exceptionally well with 36 wins from 126 runs (SR 28.6%) for a profit of £54.97 (ROI +43.6%).
  3. In Group 1 races, the Gosdens have saddled 12 winners from 48 for an excellent 1 in 4 strike rate; in Group 2 contests this improves to 15 wins from 43 (SR 34.9%) showing a profit of £32.66 (ROI 76.0%).
  4. The best performances have been at distances of 1m2f or more where they have secured a 26% strike rate and returns of 9p in the £.

 

The Gosden stable has shown good consistency with their 4yos and this is illustrated when looking at their performance at different courses. Their win SR% are shown below (minimum 15 runs):

 

 

All tracks bar Newmarket have figures of 20% or higher. Chelmsford is a clear leader thanks to 7 wins from 16.

A look at William Haggas now and his strongest stats:

  1. Amazingly, his male and female runners have hit exactly the same win strike rate% of 21.4%.
  2. 4yos that have started favourite for Haggas have delivered with 65 wins from 174 runners (SR 37.4%) for a profit of £21.77 (ROI +12.5%). His second favourites have also proved profitable returning just under 15p in the £ from a 23.5% strike rate.
  3. Haggas is not one for sending 4yo runners to the front that often but when he does they have won 34% of their races (17 wins from 50).
  4. He has struggled a little at the very elite level with 0 winners from 19 in Group 1 races, although five did place. He has a better record when the level drops to Class 3 races or below; here he has secured 56 wins from 176 (SR 31.8%) for a healthy profit of £37.41 (ROI +21.3%).

 

Onto a few of the other trainers now and their strongest stats:

  1. Grant Tuer is an impressive 24 from 44 (SR 54.5%) with favourites. Backing all of them would have seen a profit of £26.97 (ROI 61.2%).
  2. Sir Michael Stoute has an excellent record on the all weather – 26 wins from 70 runners (SR 37.1%) producing returns of 24p in the £.
  3. Saeed bin Suroor has made a small 5p in the £ profit with horses priced 8/1 or shorter. Longer priced runners (above 8/1) have lost over 64p in the £ due to just 2 winners from 88.
  4. Chris Dwyer has saddled 12 winners from 46 runners when using 3lb claiming jockeys. They have produced a profit of £43.88 (ROI 95.4%). Also it should be noted that seven different 3lb claimers have secured at least one win. Hence these figures are not skewed by one jockey.
  5. William Knight has a decent record on the all weather hitting a win rate of slightly better than 1 win in 5. He is 8 from 18 at Wolves and 5 from 11 at Newcastle.

 

Individual Trainer Performance with Five-Year-Olds and upwards

Moving up in age now let's look at all runners aged five and older. Only trainers with 200+ runs have been considered. Here are the top 20 in terms of win strike rate:

 

 

As we get into the realms of more exposed and generally less elite horses, we see quite a few new trainers on the list when compared to previous tables in this series of articles. Making a profit however, is hard to come by as one would expect. Just two trainers were in profit at SP across the six year period, and both were barely in profit at that. It is, however, good to see ten trainers with A/E indices of 1.00 or more, implying they might offer value.

Roger Varian leads the table but he has made significant losses of around 32p in the £.

John Quinn has the best record as far as returns are concerned and these are some of his stronger stats:

  1. Quinn has made all his profits in turf races (returns of 16p in £). In all weather races he has had losses of 30p in the £.
  2. Shorter distances of 7f or less have produced the best overall performances with 48 wins from 256 runners (SR 18.8%) for a profit of £71.62 (ROI +28.0%).
  3. He has a 23% strike rate in non-handicaps; 11% in handicaps.
  4. Jockey Jason Hart has ridden over half of Quinn’s older runners securing a return of 16p in the £ over 260 rides.

 

It needs to be appreciated that horses aged five and older, especially handicappers, are typically not going to be the most consistent animals. Although if we look at Quinn’s yearly win strike rates they are all similar except for 2021, where his runners probably over-performed compared with previous seasons:

 

 

I thought it may be interesting to compare trainer performance when we split the older runners into two age bands – 4yos & 5yos, and 6yos and older - comparing Win% (SR%), A/E indices and Impact Values. To qualify a trainer needed at least 100 runners in each age band.

The right hand columns compare the 4 & 5yo Win% data with the 6yo+ Win% data by creating a ratio of one to the other. The greater the number above 1.00, the more 4 & 5yos are favoured; the smaller the number below 1.00, the more 6yos and older are favoured. Any A/E value of 1.00 or more has been highlighted in blue. I have also highlighted any win ratio of 1.4 and above or 0.7 and below. These ratios help to highlight where there is a significant difference in the Win SR%:

 

It is worth noting that both Derek Shaw and Rebecca Menzies have achieved A/E indices of 1.00 or more in both age bands. That is high achieving in this context. William Knight was close also with figures of 1.1 and 0.99. Meanwhile, Jane Chapple-Hyam’s strike rate for four- and five-year-olds is double that of her six-year-old and up group. She is the only trainer to attain a win ratio% of over 2.

And that brings the final curtain down on this trainer series. Hopefully you have found some nuggets within the six ‘episodes’ that will aid your betting and produce some additional profits. For me, it’s time to start some new research on a different aspect of racing. Until then, you'll find links to the other five articles below; and may I wish you the very best of luck with your punting.

- DR

Monday Musings: On Buick’s Title Charge

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The last time I saw Tony Hind, the super jockey agent who shares his time between being a Tottenham Hotspur fanatic and grooming jockeys into becoming champions, three weeks ago at Newmarket, he wasn’t taking anything for granted, writes Tony Stafford. “No, we’ll be going full on until it’s mathematically impossible for William to be beaten.”

Three weeks later, maybe even Bony Tony will believe the race is won. Buick, after a remarkable eight wins from 12 rides on Saturday and yesterday at Goodwood, has a lead of 42 over nearest rival Hollie Doyle – 118 to 73 and with a prizemoney haul of almost double at £3,966,000 to £2,065,000.

Ben Curtis with 70 is the leader in the north. Doyle’s husband, Tom Marquand, is next, his 68 wins bringing in £2,465,000, a fair distribution of earnings between the couple. “I’ll let you be the principal bread-winner,” says Hollie, “as long as I ride more winners and get the bulk of the press and media coverage.” Something like that anyway – they seem to be in a blissfully happy state all the time, however, so I doubt those issues concern them.

It might surprise many that fifth place in the table belongs to another Northern-based jockey but one without a vestige of a northern accent, unlike his pal, Keith Walton, who is Leeds through and through. A former pro boxer who now trains a stable of fighters, Keith also finds time to run his own electrical business while being a regular on northern racecourses and boxing coach to several jockeys. Mulrennan is on 67 wins, but those and the other 316 mounts he has benefited with his undoubted skills have generated only £708,000, a measure if ever it were needed that shames the prizes generally on offer at most minor meetings away from the big tracks.

It's just as well that Paul’s wife Adele has so quickly become a valued member of the ITV Racing team’s coverage, having been head-hunted after her excellent work as a racecourse rep for the BHA in the north. Like the Marquands – or is it the Doyles? – two incomes will be handy as the price of energy spirals out of control from October and beyond.

Hind’s concern about the mathematical possibilities may have smacked of belt, braces and even bicycle clips, but were understandable. I contend though that the actual moment when William Buick won the 2022 Jockeys’ Championship, a contest which runs for less than half the calendar year – in 2022, April 30 to October 15 – arrived on February 22, a full two months before hostilities were to resume after Buick’s near miss as Oisin Murphy only narrowly saw off his rival in a last-day thriller on Champions Day at Ascot last October.

Oisin Murphy, do you remember him? Three times in a row he was the champion who had managed to stave off the implications of the tortured existence that only was to become fully evident after that exhaustive enquiry by his bosses last winter.

In the way of such matters, until last night I had never closely read the line-by-line conclusion of the case presented by the BHA which itemised the various breaches of the jockeys’ code and the misdemeanours which the BHA chose to layer on to the hapless miscreant.

In brief, Oisin was given a year’s ban until February 2023 for having been found to have, in order, breached Covid Rules, misled the BHA, indulged in prejudicial conduct, and incurred two alcohol breaches. The charge of “prejudicial conduct” covered the conclusion that he had acted in a manner that was prejudicial to the proper integrity, conduct and good reputation of the sport.

Note the order of the charges. Two breaches of the Covid rules, pretty much in line with what was considered one of the most heinous forms of law-breaking in the UK at the time, understandably took the headlines.

Murphy, as champion jockey, enjoyed considerable earning possibilities away from the UK, notably in Japan where he was a regular and most welcome visitor, enjoying rides on fancied horses in many of the well-endowed races there. At the 2021 Breeders’ Cup he was clearly very happy when the Japanese horse Loves Only You won the Filly and Mare Turf race, as he could be seen smiling away in the background when she returned to the winner’s circle.

That was the case, too, when he rode the 50/1 Japanese-trained winner of the Distaff race that same day in California, Marche Lorraine’s success bringing a £759k prize to connections. Oisin will have collected - if in line with UK percentages- maybe £50k from that.

The Covid breach involved a holiday in Greece, at the time in the Red Zone, while instead he said he was holidaying in Lake Como, a less offensive part of the world in those dark days. That was the “misleading the BHA” part of his ‘crimes’. Three months after his ban, Murphy might have smiled inwardly upon learning of the £50 fixed penalties meted out to Boris and Carrie Johnson and Rishi Sunak when they were found guilty of being present at Downing Street parties which also breached those same Covid Rules.

True in the end, that sequence where in all 100 fines were meted out to various drinks party goers, resulted in the Prime Minister’s eventual fall. Oisin was probably fined effectively at least one thousand times as much in terms of potential earnings over the year as the PM’s rebuke. By putting all his bad eggs in one basket the BHA has probably given him his best chance of retrieving his reputation and self-esteem.

During his sabbatical, he did go on at least one of the racing-themed mercy horsebox convoys to Ukraine, organised by Charlie Mann earlier in the year, but he has pretty much kept a low profile. Everyone who admired his riding will hope he has been able finally to end the alcohol dependence that was an all-embracing companion.

The riders of yesteryear had many formidable drinkers in their ranks – ask Henrietta Knight about the early version of Terry Biddlecombe before he became a reformed man as her husband in his later years. In the post-war days the top jockeys would be regulars in the night clubs in the West End of London, feted by owners, gamblers and bookmakers before going to the saunas at the public baths early in the morning to dry out.

They would still report for action at the track the next afternoon, showing little sign of their lifestyle, easier in those days as there was no fear of being tested.

Hopefully Murphy will be starting with a clean slate, but he may find he is returning to a sport where, largely through outside influences, it has become more difficult for him to attain a similar level. Much debate lately has been about the paucity of horses of a sufficient ability level to match the number of races framed in the higher echelons.

Small fields have been a constant for the last few weeks but that has been as much a function of the impossibly dry weather of the summer. What has been clear is that some of the top stables seem to be able to provide runners in pretty much all the valuable races around the country, leading to the domination by those jockeys connected to them.

William Buick’s rise, apart from his talent, has needed him to be associated with a top team and it has taken 16 years to graduate to the number one spot. By the time he rode his first ten winners in 2006, Kieren Fallon and Frankie Dettori had already finished their years as champion. In that year, Ryan Moore collected his first title, after which Seb Sanders and Jamie Spencer, a previous winner, shared one. Paul Hanagan, Richard Hughes, Silvestre De Sousa, Jim Crowley and Murphy all had their turns in the intervening period.

Buick achieved it with the constant support of his father Walter, a Scots-born jockey based originally in Newmarket who migrated to Scandinavia where he was a multiple champion jockey and later a trainer in Germany. William was born in Norway but frequently came over to England for the summer holidays and I remember his father bringing him and sometimes his brothers to the press room at Newbury in his early teens. When he took his first rides, aged 16, he weighed five stone wet through.

Those early trips involved spending time at Kingsclere riding out on the gallops, developed by Mill Reef’s trainer Ian Balding and further improved by Andrew, Ian’s son, to whom the young Buick was apprenticed. Over the years he has expanded his client base to the extent that only one of the Goodwood winners was trained by his principal employer, Charlie Appleby. Three were for his original boss Balding, with one each for Eve Johnson Houghton, Roger Varian, Simon and Ed Crisford and George Boughey, powerful allies all.

His annual haul of 140 wins – so 22 gained before the Saturday of the Guineas meeting, the official start of the championship – is a fair tally considering he spent most of the winter and early spring in Dubai, and has been shared between 33 different trainers. The best of all worlds.

With the power of Godolphin and the skill and support of Charlie Appleby to fall back on, Buick looks set for a good spell at the top with this most emphatic of titles behind him. Maybe Oisin Murphy will have something to say about that? Maybe Hollie can continue her progress and possibly have a major thrust for a first female title? The future though seems all about William Buick. Then again, after our experiences in the UK in particular and the greater world in general in 2022, what can we ever take for granted?

- TS

Trainers with Three-Year-Old Runners, Part 2

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This is the fifth article in a series where I have been digging into the performance of trainers' runners of specific ages over the past few seasons, writes Dave Renham. I have used UK race data from 1st January 2016 to 31st December 2021 giving us six full seasons to examine.

My focus in this second part of the series is on three-year-old (3yo) runners and, following on from my previous piece, I have used the Geegeez Query Tool for all of the number crunching. All profits / losses have been calculated at Industry Starting Price. I appreciate most punters do not use SP these days as many (quite rightly) take advantage of early prices, Best Odds Guaranteed and / or the exchanges.

I looked in depth at non-handicap data last time; this time the focus is three-year-old runners in handicap races. Note, these could be three-year-old only or three-year-old and up handicaps.

All 3yo runners in handicaps

To start with let us overview all 3yo runners in handicaps before breaking the data down.

Here are the top 20 trainers in terms of strike rate with their 3yos in handicaps (minimum 150 runs):

 

Many of the usual suspects appear in the list but there are a few names - such as Chris Wall, Ron Harris and Heather Main - we have not seen prominently before. Eight of the 20 are in profit, which is surprising, but it will be interesting to see which of the profitable trainers have skewed figures due to one or two big-priced winners. In order to see whether this has been the case, the below table shows these eight trainers when their runners returned 8/1 or shorter. This takes any outliers out of the equation. Here are the figures:

 

Four of the eight have remained profitable, while three of the others were profitable to Betfair SP, with only Clive Cox remaining in the negative. Here are some individual highlights:

  1. Owen Burrows has a good record with his 3yo handicappers who are in the top three of the betting – 39 wins from 124 runs (SR 31.5%) for a profit of £39.73 (ROI +32.0%).
  2. Sir Mark Prescott has a decent record when using claiming jockeys. 13 wins from 43 (SR 30.2%) for a small profit of £9.94 (ROI +23.1%). His 3yo handicappers that wear cheekpieces have a surprisingly good record, too. 46 wins from 154 runners which equates to a win strike rate of just under 30%. They have returned an impressive 25p in the £.
  3. Marcus Tregoning has performed considerably better with male 3yo handicappers as compared to female ones. His male runners have won over 21% of their races; his female runners have won less than 10%. The each way figures are equally skewed (42% versus 27%). Tregoning has also done well with favourites, scoring 21 times from 51 (SR 41.2%) for a profit of £18.54 (ROI 36.4%).
  4. It looks best to ignore Charlie Fellowes if he is using a claiming jockey as only 2 of 37 such runners have won. On a more positive note, in the better handicap races of class 2 to 4 he has hit a 20.8% win strike rate for a profit of £137.48 (ROI +94.5%).
  5. Ron Harris and front runners have been a potent combination thanks to 27 wins from 81 runners. Compare his win strike rates for the different run style groups below:

 

 

A 3yo front-running handicapper for Harris is a horse we ought to be on!

In terms of A/E indices there are 19 trainers who have managed a figure of 1.00 or more (150 runs or more). They are shown in the graph below:

 

A/E, actual versus expected, is a measure of the value proposition of a 'thing', with a figure greater than 1 considered a plus. You can read more about it (and all the geegeez metrics) here.

These trainers have offered good value over the past six seasons with their 3yo handicappers. 11 of the 19 have secured profits to Industry SP; 14 were profitable to BSP. Ron Harris has the highest A/E value, at 1.31, followed by Roger Teal (1.26) and George Margarson (1.25). It's always good to see some new trainers, especially less familiar ones, on this list. Teal has a notably good record with favourites (8 wins from 19) for a 56p in the £ return, while Margarson, when teaming up with jockey Jane Elliott, has secured 14 wins from 62 for an outstanding return of 144p in the £.

 

Handicap races broken down by distance

Now let's break down trainer 3yo handicap runner performance by distance. I am going to look at sprint distances first.

3yos in handicaps over 5 to 6 furlongs

In the table below I have restricted it to trainers who have had a minimum of 75 runs or more, with the top ten in terms of strike rate shown:

 

 

Ed Walker tops the table so let's start with him in terms of some additional sprint handicap stats to share:

  1. All bar one of Ed Walker’s winners have returned single figure prices. His record therefore with horses priced 9/1 or shorter has been impressive – 38 wins from 146 (SR 26.0%) for a profit of £52.93 (ROI +36.3%).
  2. Ron Harris has secured a 22.5% win strike rate over 5f, but this drops markedly to 13.3% over 6f. Nevertheless, he has been profitable to follow over both sprint trips.
  3. Amy Murphy has an outstanding record with her fillies (female runners). She has had 12 wins from 48 runners (SR 25.0%) for a profit of £56.37 (ROI +117.4%).
  4. Andrew Balding’s runners have done well when they have been fancied. Combining his favourites and second favourites has produced 21 winners from 65 runners (SR 32.3%) for a healthy profit of £29.86 (ROI +45.9%).

3yos in handicaps over 7f to 1 mile

Onto 7f to 1 mile races next – here is a bar chart showing the trainers with the highest win strike rates:

 

 

At these Classic type distances, we're back to some of the biggest hitting trainers here and there are some strong individual stats to mention:

  1. The Gosden team have visited Yarmouth a dozen times with their 7f-1m 3yo handicappers and a remarkable eight have won.
  2. All 28 of Charlie Appleby’s winners were priced 8/1 or shorter. He is 0 from 18 (2 placed) from runners bigger than 8/1. Also his higher weighted runners (9st 1lb or more) have done well, with 27 wins from 84 (SR 32.1%) and a profit of £17.49 (ROI +20.8%).
  3. William Haggas has made steady returns of 9p in the £ with horses first or second in the betting.
  4. Andrew Balding has done well with his shorter priced runners. Those priced 3/1 or shorter have seen 41 wins from 108 (SR 38.0%) for a profit of £13.35 (ROI +12.4%).
  5. Clive Cox has an excellent record with favourites – 30 wins from 74 (SR 40.5%) for a profit of £20.61 (ROI +27.9%).

 

3yos in handicaps of 1m 1f to 1m 2f

Let’s check out the stats for 9 and 10 furlong handicap races now. A look at the top ten trainers in terms of win strike rate:

 

 

There are some impressive strike rates for handicap races with all ten trainers in the table hitting at over 18%. Four of the ten are in profit including the big guns of Stoute, Charlton and bin Suroor, while six have A/E indices of 1.00 or more.

It is worth noting that the Charlton stable has been profitable in five of the six seasons which shows excellent consistency. They have also managed a yearly strike rate of 19% on five occasions. Despite Saeed bin Suroor’s positive record, the last two seasons have been poor for him with just a single win from 20 starters in this distance range.

There are three trainers (Johnston, Hannon and Fahey) that have had over 400 qualifiers but their strike rates were not good enough to make the top 10. For the record here are those volume trainers' figures:

 

 

All three are well off overall profitability. However, Richard Fahey has done well with fancied runners over these trips. His first and second favourites have produced 27 winners from 82 (SR 32.9%) for a profit of £28.17 (ROI +34.3%).

3yos in handicaps of 1m 3f to 1m 4f

The final distance group to check out is 1m 3f to 1m 4f, as races of 1m 5f or more offers only a modest dataset with which to work. The top ten are shown below along with their strike rates:

 

 

A bigger proportion of these trainers are in profit with seven managing positive figures and it's good to see Marco Botti, William Knight and Alan King getting into the top 10 to freshen things up a little. A look at their A/E indices and Impact Values now:

 

 

Seven of the ten have A/E indices over 1.00 which is excellent, and with reasonable correlation, too.

 

Distance comparison – individual trainers

I thought it would be useful to end this article by comparing individual trainer strike rates across the four distance groups. To qualify for a figure, each trainer needs to have had at least 60 3yo handicap runners in the relevant distance group. Trainers that have had enough runners in at least three of the four distance ranges are shown. Hence any gaps simply mean that trainer did not have 60 or more runners in the distance group. The table is also colour coded with strike rates of 20% or more in red (hot); strike rates of under 10% in blue (cold) :

 

 

William Haggas is the only trainer to have secured a strike rate of over 20% in all four distance groups. Sir Mark Prescott has achieved that in three of the groups.

It is interesting to compare trainers in this way with some very consistent figures across the board (for example, Charlie Hills and Michael Bell); others vary quite a bit – William Knight, Alan King and Marco Botti being three who have both red and blue figures.

Few handicap races are easy puzzles to solve, and many 3yo runners are still developing and looking for their optimum distance. I hope the trainer statistics in this article help to point you in the right direction.

The final piece in this series will look at trainer performance with older runners. Until then...

- DR

Monday Musings: A York Debrief

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They came in their droves to York on Wednesday just to see the best horse in the world, writes Tony Stafford. They saw him and he delivered by six-and-a-half lengths from the horse who had won the richest horse race in the world – if not this year, last.

A lot had been invested in the event. Not just the £1 million prize fund of which £567k went to the winner, Baaeed if you weren’t sure. A decent chunk went to the second, Mishriff, to bring his money-haul to £11,677,544, four times as much as Baaeed’s. Third home Sir Busker also picked up a six-figure prize for Kennett Valley and William Knight.

It was the razzmatazz of the whole week, seemingly trying so hard to lighten the general mood of gloom surrounding the sport and country. It appeared to try to ape the Melbourne Cup with the jockey introductions and the like before Saturday’s Skybet Ebor, the half-million total fund of which makes it the richest handicap in Europe.

That of itself is not much of a distinction, as no other major racing administration has anywhere near the preponderance of handicaps, save Ireland of course.

Everyone got very excited when the William Haggas-trained four-year-old made it ten out of ten, approaching the flawless record of Frankel, who retired to stud after 14 unblemished runs. Although Frankel was also a four-year-old when he left Sir Henry Cecil’s care for Banstead Manor stud, he had won six races before June of his three-year-old season including the 2,000 Guineas. His shadow Baaeed had not even made his racecourse debut before June as a three-year-old.

Six races were crammed within 101 days in 2021 between June and October. Then Haggas gave him seven months to mature before another quartet, all at Group 1 level, in 95 days from May to August. The last three have been a mirror image of Frankel’s: Royal Ascot’s Queen Anne, Goodwood’s Sussex Stakes, and a first try beyond a mile in the 10½ furlong Juddmonte.

The incentive for the York feature for the Khaled Abdullah homebred was obvious as the late Saudi prince had sponsored the race for many years. This time, once the path had been set for Baaeed, the only argument going around was whether Haggas might try to persuade Sheikha Hissa, daughter of the late Sheikh Hamdan Al Maktoum, to have a think about the Arc rather than end his career Frankel-like in the Champion Stakes later in October.

I had a lovely couple of days in York, securing a bed within walking distance of the track – although I did go by car – with Jim and Mary Cannon in their four-story abode in a quiet square near the Mount school, Alma Mater of Dame Judy Dench, so they told me.

Jim, a native of Carlisle, is a one-time Labour councillor in East London who moved with Mary to York nine or ten years ago and has had shares in loads of Wilf Storey horses for all that time and a little before. It’s like home from home and I can do my work, rifle the fridge and wait for him to rustle up something tasty for dinner.

That happened the first night, but on Wednesday I was in Delrio’s – known by all the racing crowd as “The Italian” and the only thing that beats it for its conviviality is the length of time it takes to turn orders into drink and especially food.

I had my back to the table immediately behind me, which among its ten squeezed-in bodies were several of the TV broadcasters. I’m pretty sure I did identify which of them pronounced: “It’s my mission to get him <Baaeed, no doubt> to the Arc”!

The way Baaeed finished off after coming from some way back offers every hope that he would stay the extra two furlongs, but would it make any difference to his appeal as a stallion? For all Sheikha Hissa and her family’s sporting and sensible policy of continuing her father’s work in a more streamlined manner, the fear that he might be beaten over a mile-and-a-half in the mud against the French (or Germans, or indeed Sir Mark Prescott’s Alpinista) should be incentive enough for the team to stay with the Champion Stakes.

Alpinista was the star of Thursday when she saw off a revived Tuesday – a little short of peak I was led to understand beforehand – in the Yorkshire Oaks. I always enjoy a chat with Sir Mark and, after he conducted interviews with every television station from the UK, Ireland and Dubai I finally got a word. His impeccable navy-blue pinstripe suit was set off with an immaculate tie, and it was only after studying him as I waited that I realised he had tucked in the tail part of it.

I said, “As you know I’m a year all but a day older than you, and I’m not too old to learn from you.” When I explained it was the tie issue that I noticed, he said he always does that. Then, after speaking to Richard Frisby, advisor to Kirsten Rausing, Alpinista’s owner-breeder, on the topic, he put me straight. “You learn that at prep school,” he revealed. I must have missed that!

Nobody missed the fact that Alpinista has won five Group 1 races including one defeat of Torquator Tasso, last year’s Arc winner. “We were lucky to beat him as he didn’t get a run,” said Sir Mark modestly.

So many amazing things happened at York. Like the 14-length win of Hughie Morrison’s ever-improving stayer, Quickthorn. Morrison and owner Lady Blyth had the option of a second shot at the Ebor, which he lost narrowly last year to Sonnyboyliston, who went on to win the Irish St Leger for Johnny Murtagh.

Instead, they took the bold step of taking on Stradivarius and Trueshan in the Lonsdale Stakes over two miles on the Friday. It was always possible that Trueshan may continue the Alan King policy of missing races when the ground was unsuitably fast and that was his eventual decision.

By that time, Stradivarius was already out with a bruised foot, so it was left according to the market as a match between Quickthorn, winner of the Group 3 Henry II Stakes at Sandown in May and a Group 2 in France last month, and Andrew Balding’s Coltrane.

Coltrane, winner of the Ascot Stakes under a big weight and then easily in a Listed over two miles at Sandown, proved best of the rest in the “finest stayers’ race ever run” when fourth in the Goodwood Cup behind Kyprios, Stradivarius and Trueshan at the Glorious meeting.

In the event, it was no contest. Tom Marquand took Quickthorn to the front, steadily building on an initial lead with consistent 12-second and change furlongs, and by the turn into the straight he was miles clear. Afterwards, Hughie told me, “I hadn’t realised how much he eased him.” The track record would have been his as well as a 20-length win at least.

I think the absent big two would have been fully stretched to have any more luck at staying with him than those that remained. He may well go the Irish St Leger route as that Group 1 win would look very nice on his CV, though that would very likely mean a shot at Kyprios.

Morrison is out of love with the Melbourne Cup nowadays after the controversy over conflicting veterinary conclusions by his own advisors and the local Flemington panel which ruled his Marmelo out of running in the 2019 edition on soundness grounds after he had finished runner-up to Charlie Appleby’s Cross Counter the year before.

One trainer perfectly happy at continuing his love affair with that race is Ian Williams and he almost carried off an Australian-style coup at York this week. It is commonplace for Australian trainers to run their horses in the days coming up to the big race, sometimes even three days before and over vastly shorter than the two miles of the Cup.

On Wednesday, Williams won the £51k to the winner two-mile handicap with Alfred Boucher by three lengths. That gave Alfred a 4lb penalty, enough to slot him in at the foot of the Ebor field. After much debate, he decided to run the six-year-old again, reasoning he would never be able to run for three hundred grand any time soon.

Backed down to 8-1 and benefiting from a fine ride by P J McDonald he was beaten just a short-head, as Williams asserted, “victim of a Frankie Dettori masterpiece.” He added, “Dettori went off fast and wide of the field, crossed him over to the front and then steadied the pace. He rode the socks off the rest of them, no criticism to P J.”

How Williams must have wished Dettori’s brief exile from the Gosdens over the Stradivarius Royal Ascot issue had been more permanent. He chose his best ride on their Trawlerman to deny what would have been one of the headlines of the week.

Talking of the Melbourne Cup, last year’s winner of that race, the seven-year-old mare Verry Elleegant, has pitched up in France in the care of Francis-Henri Graffard, presumably with the Arc as her main objective.

Frankie was recruited for yesterday’s run in Deauville and I wonder whether her Aussie owners were enamoured by this ride, sitting well out the back, asking for an effort turning for home, and then only plodding on at one pace. She finished last of seven and will need to have a form transformation if she is to add to her massive home reputation over in Europe. Connections were putting on a brave face and suggested a more suitable rehearsal will be the Prix Vermaille in three weeks' time.

- TS

Roving Reports: Goodwood

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So I left you in the Premier Inn at Guildford, just off the A3, having a shower after finishing off at Sandown earlier that night, writes David Massey. I'm cursing the fact we are so far from the track but the room, replete with walk-in shower and a proper desk to work at, is pacifying me somewhat. I sleep like a log, knowing the next three days are going to be busy.

For all it's an hour drive to Goodwood it's a pleasant one, taking in a few picturesque village greens as we wind our way to the track. Working in the Lennox Enclosure as we are for the week, the trick is to park on the side of the road by the four furlong pole, which not only ensures a quick getaway post-racing, but an easy enough spot to wheel the gear back every night.

The Enclosure itself has changed since we were last here. The covered bar, right at the far end by the 2f pole, is no longer a covered bar but an open one. Wait a minute! Where's Squinty McGinty and his band? A regular feature of that bar, Squinty and co would bang out all your old singalong favourites before finishing every night with the same exacta - The Fields Of Athenry underneath, and Delilah on top to round things off. Ah, there he is. They've moved Squinty up a bit, he's now got his own patch in the middle ground. No Squinty, no Goodwood, although as we pass by, I hear the familiar refrains of Sweet Caroline, which he's added to his repertoire since the last time we were here. No-one can accuse Squinty of not giving his audience what they want, that's for sure.

So where to bet, then? It's a strange enclosure to bet in, with the bookmakers in one very long line, and the picnic car park thrown in. My good mate Tony, from his excellent pitch, takes the picnic car park and will tick along nicely in there for the week, but we have a decision to make.

The aforementioned covered bar used to be a great area to bet in front of. Not only because of the band, but the clue is in the name - covered. If it rained, punters would pile in by the dozen, nipping out only to have a bet, and the eight or so books that stood in front of the bar would cop the lot. Is the new open-air bar going to be as popular? We decide not, and bet near the furlong pole, right up the other end of the ring.

It's the Magnolia Cup today, and I've done my homework on the race. Basically, there are three with some sort of chance, as long as their riders are competent, and the rest, to varying extents, are going to struggle. For this race only, I'm in charge of the book, so it's all on my shoulders whether we win or not. One bloke clearly hasn't done his homework and has £50 on one that turns out to be a 41-rated 1m6f horse. This, remember, is over 5 and a half furlongs. Still, it's good for the book...

The race is run and I've got it right. Dark Shot wins and we've won well. I've personally won well too. I'll let you into a little secret here - these charity races, if you're not too greedy, often pay some wacky dividends on the Tote. I made Dark Shot a 7-4 chance to win this, but he's paid 13-2 on the Tote and 5-2 a place! Don't tell everyone though, okay....?

We're betting next to Robert Perry and his wife Jane, for the whole week as it turns out. They're lovely people and a good laugh. As I've said before, if you've good neighbours, it does make the week go a lot smoother. Jane provides the sweets for the first two days and I return the favour on the Saturday with two large bags of Haribo. But back to the Thursday...

There's a loud group of lads behind us that isn't helping my mood, but we get betting on the first. The Thursday is always a quiet day, so we aren't expecting fireworks, and that's just as well because we don't get any. Business is very quiet and the highlight of the afternoon is me turning around to see one of the loud lads throwing his guts up on the grass. Half an hour later, five security men will escort him off the track, shouting as he's carried away.

Three favourites on the bounce in Royal Scotsman, New London and Nashwa ensure it won't be a winning day and just as we get level, the well-backed joint favourite Sparkling Beauty takes the last. Thank goodness for the Magnolia Cup!

Friday sees a game of Musical Bookies as everyone moves position to try and find that elusive spot where you can take plenty of money and bet well. Bookmakers, should they find such a unicorn spot, play their cards very close to their chest when questioned. "How was it yesterday?" is a familiar refrain this morning, and the answer you'll usually get it "it was okay, nothing better than that." No-one's going to tell you if they hit the jackpot for fear of someone elbowing them out of their position. Those that bet in front of the open bar said business was moderate, but then, as was pointed out to me by the ever-shrewd Daren Wentworth, "you don't see any of them moving today, do you?"

Business is immediately better, with the long-distance handicap going to the almost unbacked Master Milliner. Yesterday was all two-fifty each-ways, today it's tenners and twenties with the odd £100 bet thrown in. A German guy, who I will come to know as Roland, starts betting with us, and I get chatting to him. He tells me he loves British racing and comes for all the festivals: Ascot, Goodwood, Cheltenham. He loves his football too, supporting Borussia Dortmund II, who he informs me play in Germany's third division. As a Derby supporter, I can only sympathise with him.

It's a good job Roland has a sense of humour as I massively put my foot in it. We are talking about how the price of racing admission has increased over the past few years and I remark how things seem to be going back to the old days "what with strikes, increasing prices, wars across Europe..." and before I realise what I've said Roland laughs and says "yes, but this time, we didn't start them!" I want the ground to open up, I'm so embarrassed. Thankfully Roland isn't and is roaring with laughter. Mainly at my red face, I think. It doesn't put him off us, thankfully, he bets with us for the next two days and as with all loyal customers, I make sure he's well looked after.

The biggest problem we are having, as we bet, is the phone signal. A lot of the bets we are taking today are card bets, but the signal and wifi is so awful at this end of the track that transactions, which normally take about 20 seconds, can take a minute or more and even then, some are failing to go through. We change to a different signal but it's no better. Do we junk the cards and just take cash, or push on? We persevere with it and thankfully things do get better, but for a big track such as this, you'd think a better signal might be a given.

The results are blindingly good. Orbaan wining the Golden Mile is almost a skinner. Khaadem and Rumstar are equally good and only a £200 bet on Caius Chorister in the last takes the shine off things.

Squinty throws a curveball by ending, not with Delilah, but Sweet Caroline, and the 1.01 money buyers have even done it in leaving the track. It's not been a good day for favourite backers, that's for sure.

Saturday and the sun is out. So are the punters, and business ramps up another notch. Although I would say, the money is smaller. This is a bit more of a family day, and there are queues to get on. I have my only cash bet of the week on The Foxes each-way in the first, as the 15-2 next door looks too big, and am delighted when it pounces on the odds-on Classic late. That pays for the Haribo.

I nearly cop the lot when Dark Shot is only narrowly beaten in the Consolation Stewards, and the lady who asked me for a tip beforehand ("you bookies always know what's going to win, don't you?" - I informed her that if I did, I wouldn't be standing here getting me arms burnt trying to earn a few quid, I'd be out there backing it) is delighted when she picks up just over £60 having backed it each-way after my advice. Unlike previous similar encounters, there is no marriage proposal at this point, but I do get a kiss. I love my job at times.

Trawlerman ought to be called Trollerman, as I've fancied it strongly the last two runs and given up on it today. The public haven't though, and a £100ew bet on him is a bit of a kicking. Sea La Rosa isn't much better in the Lillie Langtry, a huge roar going up around me as she hits the front in the latter stages, and the payout queue is a long one.

Two doors down from us, the bookmaker's light board has packed up, and that means that Jane next door, and myself, are suddenly a lot busier as we pick their business up. There's never a good time for the equipment to fail, but right before the Stewards Cup, the best betting race all week, is a proper kick in the teeth. It doesn't work properly again all afternoon and that's basically game over for them.

Commanche Falls is popular enough with the small money brigade, plenty of fivers and tenners, but it is a winning race. I feel for one bloke though - he had five £5 ew bets on the race and backed the first four out of them. I ask if he had the forecast or the tricast as an aside, and sadly he didn't. Good darts, sir, but that's an opportunity missed.

I'm A Gambler is a bad result. You may ask why an 18 chance would be no good, but the reasoning is simple - it was Number 1 on the racecard and therefore at the top of the light board. Punters just making a lucky pick often look towards the top of the board rather than the bottom. That's human nature, isn't it? You work from top to bottom. So those at the top take much more money than those at the bottom with the pinstickers.

We can't get them off Ajero in the last, and punters go home on a winning favourite. Which is how it should be. Squinty gives Delilah one last outing, and we pack the gear away. The early finish means I'll be back in Nottingham for nine. Now that, my friends, is the best result of the day. On to the Ebor...

- DM

Trainers with Three-Year-Old Runners, Part 1

/in /by

This is the fourth article in a series where I have been examining the performance of trainers with certain age groups of horses over the past few seasons, writes Dave Renham. Data for these articles have been collated from 1st January 2016 to 31st December 2021 giving six full seasons to examine (UK racing only).

For this piece my focus will be three year old (3yo) runners and I have used the Geegeez Query Tool as the sole tool to gather the data. All profits / losses have been calculated to Industry Starting Price. Of course, as punters we should be able to significantly improve upon these figures by using early prices, Best Odds Guaranteed and / or the exchanges.

3yos have a special place in UK flat racing as this is the age in which they contest the ‘Classics’: the 1000 & 2000 Guineas, the Oaks, the Derby and the St Leger. Hence, one of the primary focuses for several trainers is their 3 year old battalion. As a result, one might expect trainers to use similar methods, strategies and plans each season with their 3yos. Thus, as punters, we may - I hope! - be able to exploit some patterns.

All 3yo runners

First, let me look at all 3yo runners before breaking the data down. Three-year-olds may race in 3yo only races and also in 3yo+ races where they will typically take on older, more experienced runners. Both race types are included in the data below.

Here are the top 20 trainers in terms of strike rate with their 3yos (minimum 150 runs):

 

 

It is worth noting that 16 of these twenty trainers were in the top 20 strike rates for their full 2yo race records during this six -year period (see article 1). Moreover, if I had ordered the table by Impact Value, 19 of the twenty would have remained in the list; only David Simcock would not have made it. Just two of the twenty have made a blind profit to SP but, considering how many runners they have had, this should come as no surprise. If we consider Betfair SP, then nine of the twenty would have been profitable to follow.

Charlie Appleby tops the table in terms of strike rate, just as he did with his 2yos. The Godolphin operation, for whom he works, continues to be such a powerful entity, churning out quality runners year in year out. Let's dig down into his 3yo data set:

 

 

Every year has seen a win strike rate of better than 20%, with the last four seasons all above 25%. There's good consistency there, and when we look at his yearly A/E indices we see a similar pattern:

 

 

Figures of 1.00 or more indicate good value selections and in three of the six years Appleby has managed that.

We saw in the first two-year-old article that, in terms of the sex of Appleby’s 2yo runners, he has been more successful with male runners than female runners. This has been replicated with his 3yos as the table below shows:

 

 

It should be said that the master of Moulton Paddocks has run many more male 3yos than female ones but, even so, the figures show that his male runners are the ones on which to concentrate: a return of 9p in the £ to SP is excellent.

It is also worth looking at the records of the three jockeys who primarily ride for Appleby:

 

 

William Buick is the main jockey used and his record is outstanding with a win strike rate edging towards 30%, and decent returns of 18p in the £ to boot. Buick has been amazing from the front on Appleby 3yos: when he has gone into an early lead he has won an incredible 36 races from just 73 rides, just shy of a 50% strike rate!

Adam Kirby’s record is also impressive; indeed last season (2021) he had 19 rides of which 10 won (SR 52.6%). James Doyle’s figures are a little below the other two, but are still extremely solid.

Sir Mark Prescott comes into his own with his 3yo runners. His overall strike rate with the Classic generation is more than three times higher than with his 2yos, the younger age group having a win SR% of a measly 7.3%. Similar to Charlie Appleby, there is a big difference between his male and female runners. In fact, it is even more stark as the table below shows:

 

 

A strike rate differential of over 10% between the two is enormous: in relative terms Sir Mark's colts and geldings perform 55% better than his fillies.

Prescott’s 3yos also have a good record when they front run, recording a 37% strike rate overall. It is interesting to note that this Win SR% increases to over 42% with 3yo front runners racing over distances of a mile and half or more. Here, he has secured 32 wins from 75 starters. We know from previous articles that win percentages for front runners are higher at shorter distances so these figures for horses racing at long distances are quite remarkable.

Anyone who knows about Sir Mark Prescott will not be surprised by the following comparison between his handicappers and non-handicappers:

 

Prescott’s three-year-old handicap runners win more than twice as often as his non handicappers - 27% vs 13% - and there is a similar pattern when you compare the each way strike rates. His handicappers have essentially broken even at starting price and would have returned just under 10 pence in the £ if using BSP.

Another stat which I am very impressed with is that 57% of all Prescott’s 3yo horses that have raced in handicaps won at least one race. Further, 13 horses managed to win four or more times! Prescott is the undisputed master at getting multiple wins out of his 3yos.

Before moving on here are some other 3yo stats for individual trainers which caught my eye:

  1. William Haggas has an excellent record at the distance of 1 mile 4 furlongs. He has saddled 226 runners over this distance of which 82 have won (SR 36.3%). Backing all runners would have secured a tidy £55.41 profit (ROI +24.5%). His A/E index in this context stands at a hugely eye-catching 1.26.
  2. Owen Burrows has a good record with 3yos in handicaps with horses near the top of the weights. Those carrying 9st 4lb or more have produced 28 winners from 103 runners (SR 27.2%) for a profit of £37.15 (ROI +36.1%).
  3. Clive Cox and William Haggas are the only two trainers from the top 20 who have secured a profit with their runners sent off as favourite.
  4. Saeed bin Suroor is not one to back at bigger prices. His runners priced 12/1 or bigger have produced just one score from 105 runners.
  5. The Gosden stable has secured a 20% win strike rate in Group 1 races, which is excellent considering this is the top level of racing. If you restrict Gosden runners to those that started 8/1 or shorter, the record improves to 14 wins from 44 (SR 31.8%) for a profit of £9.71 (ROI +22.1%).

 

Non-handicaps versus handicaps

Up to this point I have not split the data between non-handicaps and handicaps. In my next article, I will look at some of the 3yo handicap data, so for the rest of this piece I will concentrate on non-handicap races only.

Non-handicaps races broken down by distance

As we saw back during the first article in the series, 2yos have a ceiling in terms of the maximum distance over which they can race in the UK. However, with an extra year on their backs, 3yos are able to run further than 2yos, although - in overall terms - they rarely run further than a mile and a half. In fact, a mere 2% or so of all 3yos race in non-handicaps of 1m5f or more. Around 85% of all 3yo non-handicap runners race at 1m2f or less, with the highest proportion of these over 7 furlongs and 1 mile.

It's time to break trainer 3yo non-handicap performance down by distance. I am going to look at sprint distances first.

3yos in non handicaps over 5 to 6 furlongs

In the table below I have restricted it to trainers who have had a minimum of 60 runs or more, which actually only gives me 26 trainers in total. Hence with this number of trainers it makes sense to give the data for all of them:

 

 

It is interesting that Irish maestro Aidan O’Brien lurks at the bottom of the list with a win SR% of below 5%. Additionally, there are a few different trainers from those who normally appear in our 'top xx' lists which is good to see. Specifically, none of the following trainers had enough runners to qualify: Charlie Appleby, Saeed bin Suroor, Sir Michael Stoute, and/or the Gosden and Charlton stables. These trainers tend to target bigger prizes with their 3yos which are generally contested over longer distances.

When we look at the A/E indices, 12 of the 26 trainer have hit 1.00 or bigger – these trainers have essentially been good value to follow over this six year period with their non handicap sprinters.

Roger Varian tops the table in terms of strike rate, recording an impressive 35.79%, and he has made a decent profit with them, too. Varian is six from ten at Salisbury and six from 11 when sending these runners to Doncaster. He has also secured a win strike rate of better than 25% in five of the six seasons. In terms of starting prices, Roger has had only one double digit winner (12/1) while 28 of his 34 winners have been priced 5/2 or shorter.

David Simcock is second on the list in terms of win% and, when his horses start favourite, they have performed extremely well – 12 wins from 20 starters (SR 60%) for a profit of £10.63 (ROI +53.2%).

Before moving on, there are some interesting Running Style snippets to share with you. As regular Geegeez readers will know, I am a big fan of front runners, especially over the shorter distances, and certain trainers have excelled with such runners in 3yo non-handicaps over 5 and 6 furlongs. This is especially true when we compare performance to their record with hold up horses in the same cohort of races. The graph below shows a group of trainers and compares the two strike rates – the blue bar is SR% for front runners (early leaders); the orange bar is the SR% for hold up horses.

 

 

There are some massive differences here; yes, the sample sizes are modest but the figures are striking nonetheless. Clearly if one of these trainers saddles a 3yo in a 5-6f non handicap, you would prefer it to go straight to the front. If it does, its chances of winning seem to be massively increased.

3yos in non-handicaps over 7f to 1 mile

Let's now move on to 7f and 1 mile contests; this is the biggest data set we have in terms of the distance splits. This time, I have used 75 runs as a minimum to qualify and these are the top 15 trainers by strike rate first:

 

 

Some of the bigger stables now begin to show their hand although, as can be seen, it has been hard to make a profit to Industry SP. Just the two trainers (Saeed bin Suroor and Archie Watson) have exceeded 1.00 with their A/E indices. As a consequence, there are not that many positive trainer stats to dig up with this top performing group's miler(ish) 3yo non-handicappers, but here are a few that I thought were notable:

  1. The Gosden stable has secured a 46.5% win strike with front runners in 7f-1m non handicaps – 53 winners from 114 runners; they have also managed a 1 in 3 win rate in all-weather races producing a small profit of £2.75.
  2. When William Haggas has booked the services of jockey Jim Crowley, they have combined to win 19 out of 36 races (SR 52.8%) for a profit of £14.35 (ROI +39.9%).
  3. Saeed bin Suroor has a good record with favourites in these races; 41 wins from 74 (SR 55.4%) for a small profit of £5.70 (ROI +7.7%).
  4. Charlie Appleby has saddled just one winner sent off bigger than 7/1 from 35 runners. As ever it seems best to stick to his more fancied runners.

 

3yos in non-handicaps of 1m1f to 1m2f

Let’s check out the stats for nine- and ten-furlong three-year-old non-handicap races now. First a look at the top ten trainers in terms of win strike rate:

 

 

Charlie Appleby edges over the 30% wins to runs mark which is mightily impressive. His runners have made a good profit to Industry SP,  returning nearly 14 pence in the £. He is the only one of the top 10 in profit, though the Gosden, Johnston and Varian stables would have sneaked into the black using Betfair SP.

A look at their A/E indices and Impact Values now:

 

 

The Impact Values correlate well with strike rates as you would expect; in terms of A/E indices, only Hugo Palmer has a poor figure at 0.79; Charlie Appleby hits the magic 1.00 mark, while Messrs. Gosden, Haggas, Varian, and Balding are all above average (over 0.90).

 

3yos in non-handicaps of 1m3f to 1m4f

The final distance group to check out is 1m3f to 1m4f, because - as previously mentioned - races of 1m 5f or more offers very little data with which to work. At this distance group (around a mile and a half), the data set is relatively modest so in the table below I am sharing all trainers that have saddled at least 70 3yos in these non-handicap events. They are ordered once again by win strike rate:

 

 

The records of the Haggas, Appleby and Gosden stable are particularly impressive at first glance. For the record, Hugo Palmer’s bottom line is skewed somewhat because he saddled a 66/1 winner (Morning Beauty at Haydock in 2018). He has also had big winners at 20/1 and 25/1.

Charlie Appleby has made huge profits and, with no winners returned greater than 16/1, his record is not badly skewed like Palmer's. Meanwhile, the longest priced winner for William Haggas was just 7/1; he is 0 from 22 with runner 15/2 or bigger. With horses 7/1 or shorter his returns stand at 34p in the £ which is highly impressive. The Gosden stable has struck with close to 55% of their favourites in 3yo non-handicaps over 1m3f-1m4f and produced a very small profit; furthermore, their record on the all-weather again sees Team Gosden hit an impressive win strike rate, at 38.3%.

Final Words

There is quite a bit of detail in this article to sink your teeth into. More than that, I hope it has given readers the incentive to personally dig deeper into different trainer records in 3yo non-handicaps. By using the Geegeez Query Tool you can extend this research to look at more specific ideas within the initial parameters that I have looked at. Once you've added the basic rules to the QT filters, see image below, it will take you literally seconds to check your ideas.

 

 

Please post any useful findings in the comments below. For me, it is time to research the follow up to this piece.

- DR

Monday Musings: A flip flopping title race?

/in /by

Last week I said something ill-advised, writes Tony Stafford. What’s strange about that you ask? I put it down to my infrequent acquisition of the tangible paper version of the Racing Post. When it was my first act every morning, even before the long-discarded and much-lamented bacon sandwich, I quickly turned to the stats and particularly the trainers’ tables.

Having chanced upon one at Goodwood, I noticed how far Charlie Appleby had stretched clear in his attempt to back up last year’s first title. No sooner had my comments hit the web site last Monday, I chanced a look at the online paper and noticed the lead had shrunk, hardly surprising in retrospect given the flurry of winners that flow every week it seems from Somerville Lodge.

Partly to purge my guilt at such sloppy work, I vowed to get the latest possible state of play and was somewhat surprised to discover that three trainers are within £1,000,000 of the Godolphin maestro as we went into the three days that lead into the four-day York August meeting.

Monday morning will reveal how many horses will be taking on the William Haggas 2-5 shot, and the world’s highest rated racehorse, Baaeed, going for his tenth unbeaten career run in the Juddmonte International on Wednesday.

Eight were in at the latest acceptance and these include two other Haggas nominees, Alenquer and Dubai Honour. All bar one of the remaining quintet is trained from stables in the top five. This year, with barely half the prizemoney haul of Appleby, Aidan O’Brien is still in fifth, but his pair are both 33/1 chances, along with recent York Group 2 winner Sir Busker, poised to pick up another chunk of change for trainer William Knight who would not mind a withdrawal or two this morning.

As Monday morning is upon us, Charlie is on £4,055,331; Haggas £3,643,155; John and Thady Gosden – John won the three previous titles with only moral rather than official help from his son – has £3,166,384 and Andrew Balding £3,006,850.

The first observation is that Haggas need only win with Baaeed not only to claw back the deficit in one go – the Juddmonte carries a first prize of £567,000, the most valuable of the 28 races of the week – but move some way clear.

That eventuality is not lost on Appleby who has Irish 2.000 Guineas winner and Newmarket 2,000 runner-up Native Trail in the race. He is third favourite behind the Gosdens’ Mishriff, who will be aiming to restore his reputation after his weaker than expected finish when third to Pyledriver and Torquator Tasso in the King George three weekends ago.

That race was even more notable for the abject flops of the two star three-year-olds in the field: Irish Derby winner Westover and Oaks runner-up Emily Upjohn. Yesterday at Deauville, Coroebus, denied a run at the last minute behind Baaeed in the Sussex Stakes at Goodwood – stablemate Modern Games stepped in to land the £215k consolation spot that day – was a weakening fifth as the Gosdens’ filly Inspiral bounced back under Frankie Dettori to win the Prix Jacques le Marois for her breeders, Cheveley Park Stud.

If Appleby cannot win the Juddmonte he will be deadly serious about trying to get a similar figure for second thus limiting the shortfall to £350k or thereabouts. Should Mishriff have a similar bounce back as his younger female stable-companion contrived yesterday, he might still be in with a shout.

York’s importance in the context of the trainers’ title race is stark. None of the four days offers less than £1.4million in total purses. Overall, it’s slightly north of £6 million.  All four of the leading trainers have multiple entries over the first three days; Appleby with 15, Haggas 17, the Gosdens 12 and Balding 13.

The final figure for Saturday will not be known until lunchtime today but Haggas has three of the first half-dozen in the betting of the Ebor, making my weak joke last week of “what’s he got in the race?” little help to anyone. I bet if he could arrange it he would love to win it with Hamish for his dad, Brian.

Now a six-year-old, Hamish must have had a litany of injuries to restrict his career after four seasons – all he did as a two-year-old was to undergo a gelding operation – to 11 runs. He would have delighted the Yorkshiremen, father and son, when he won the Melrose as a three-year-old and it is with some surprise that he heads the weights for this ultra-competitive race over course and distance on Saturday.

Many though will prefer the chance of Haggas’ ante-post favourite Gaassee, backed down to an almost suicidal price of 6/4 for the Old Newton Cup at Haydock last time. He was a creditable third after getting the kind of interference that favours the bookmakers when they seem most certain to be victims of a massive punt.

A son of Sea The Stars running in the Ahmed al Maktoum yellow and black, he had won four in a row after a debut third leading up to Haydock. Over an extra two furlongs here he could be even more devastating.

Win or lose, the spice in the trainers’ title race – which should boil down to a private battle – will liven up York and it is hoped that Maureen Haggas is on the mend after a fall from her horse in Newmarket. It happened when the animal became unsettled in face of a dog on the training grounds at an unpermitted time of day.

It seems Maureen broke two vertebrae in her neck. If she is out of action for long that will be as big a handicap that her husband could countenance, such is the influence of Lester Piggott’s elder daughter within the family stable.

Having been at Ascot for a non-runner on Shergar Cup day, and the resulting loss of my phone in the car park, I’m fully fitted up with a new device and number. I’m also going to York on Wednesday. I had hoped the same horse, Dusky Lord, would be getting in the sprint handicap which opens Wednesday’s card but 37 were entered and I made a miscalculation as to where he might end up in the long list.

I guessed 27 or 28 but happily it was 24 and we need two to come out. Another near miss would be very frustrating as he’s only an 8-1 or 10-1 shot in the market after his great run over five furlongs when second at Goodwood. Fingers crossed.

One race I always enjoy on York’s opening day is the Acomb, a seven-furlong juvenile contest that is nowadays a Group 3. All 27 runners have run either once or twice, many having won, and the qualification is that they cannot have won before July 7.

Five of the last six winners have been trained in Yorkshire, Kevin Ryan, Tim Easterby, Richard Fahey and Mark Johnston the last twice, doing the honours. Charlie Hills was the one “foreigner” in that period, with subsequent Irish 2,000 Guineas winner Phoenix of Spain four years ago. He is now a stallion at the Irish National Stud.

Last year’s winner Royal Patronage runs in the Highclere colours and, after beating Coroebus in the Royal Lodge at Newmarket last autumn, he was second to Desert Crown in the Dante before finishing miles behind that colt in the Derby. He is now with Graham Motion and recently made his US debut at Saratoga.

The 2020 winner Gear Up followed the Acomb by winning the 10-furlong late-season Group 1 in Saint-Cloud but did nothing as a three-year-old. Switched to Joseph O’Brien, he has now won twice, last time in a Group 3. He has the Melbourne Cup as his objective.

It hasn’t always been thus for Acomb winners. In Hong Kong they love to buy English-trained horses for loads of money and then change their names, so much so that trying to trace them through the Racing Post library can be troublesome.

I spent quite a time tracking down the 2019 winner Valdermoro, who won the race on his third start having already been successful the previous time. The Post record shows the race to have been won by a beast called Perpetuum. He does surface with Valdermoro’s pedigree in Hong Kong 16 months later having been gelded and presumably bought for a small (or maybe a not so small) fortune.

His new owner Mr Kameny Wong Kam Man had the doubtful pleasure of witnessing his pride and joy running four times, the first three at Sha Tin, the last at Happy Valley, adorned each time with a tongue tie, for the Tony Cruz stable.

He finished 13th of 14, 14th of 14, 9th of 9 and 12th of 12, after which he never appeared again. Win the Acomb, it can lead to feast or famine! I hope Kameny has had a bit more luck in his horse recruitment since then. Maybe he should stick to the old adage in future: “Change the name, change the luck!”

- TS

Monday Musings: Of Shergar, Disappearance and Team Games

/in /by

They say you learn from your mistakes, writes Tony Stafford. If that is so, how come I managed to lose a mobile phone ten yards from the place in Ascot’s number two car park on Saturday, going home after a low-key Shergar Cup, where I mislaid the last one, never to re-surface?

The process was identical. Speak to a friend between the track and the car park; close the phone, open the car and rest the device on top while the luggage (straw hat and Racing Post) is placed inside. Drive off.

Last time I got to Legoland before I realised my missing means of communication. This time I was past Slough and closing on the roundabout leading to Pinewood Studios before I twigged. All the James Bond films were part-produced there. Wonder what he would have done?

Back to Ascot, scrabble about in vain on the grass-denuded ground – I’ve never seen that car park so sparsely-occupied or less strictly monitored - and leave details at the track’s Reception with two very helpful ladies.

Sunday was devoted to buying a sim card, some call minutes and trying to figure out vital numbers. In my prime I knew every number – as I did every horse in training, honest! My knowledge of the latter is much diminished, maybe partly as there are so many more races and meetings nowadays. As remembering phone numbers is no longer needed with lists to speed dial from, hardly half a dozen of the 150 or so that resided in Saturday’s lost soul are securely known. Honestly!

August was always reckoned to be the silly season in the newspaper business. There was even an Ian Balding horse called Silly Season in the mid- and late-1960’s who won plenty of races and was a great favourite with racegoers, including me.

August 2022 will take some beating for silliness. We’ve had no rain, heatwaves, inflation, war, strikes, disgraced politicians and the prospect of massive mortgage rate hikes and crashing property values. It’s mad and almost unrecognisable from even a year ago when we were still entrenched and totally pre-occupied with Covid.

It’s still there, but like Ukraine we’ve become all Covid-ed and Ukraine-d out with everything else we have to contend with.

What’s all that got to do with racing you ask? Well that also seems to get sillier by the week. The Shergar Cup was a great innovation two decades ago, but this latest episode suggested to me that it has played itself out. Frankie Dettori still turned up, but the team idea, once earth-breaking, now seems contrived.

Prize money was lavish, of course, but that doesn’t guarantee much of a response, so much so that having been scheduled for 12 runners each race, Ascot and the BHA decided to cut it to ten, with the fear of some teams having less than equal opportunities.

One race did indeed have only eight acceptors – and one of those came out on the day too – but the horse I was there to see on behalf of its owners, was number 11 and of course, he stayed in his box. Nothing came out of his race, but he had to travel from HQ in case one did. Hopefully he’ll make the cut at York.

Two other relatively new additions to the Racing Calendar are in the process of their second year of activity. Last Thursday, the first of six late afternoon/early evening fixtures comprising the Racing League was staged at Doncaster. Seven races, each worth a total value of £50k, all handicaps and mostly 0-90, but occasionally 0-85, attracted decent fields.

Teams of trainers and jockeys representing six regions in the UK, as well as one under the Ireland banner, take part. All six races are staged on Arena racecourses, with Lingfield this week and Newcastle (two), Windsor and Southwell to follow, concluding under lights at Newcastle on September 15. All are shown on Sky Sports Racing.

Meanwhile the second big idea, the Sunday Series, will come to its conclusion, with its sixth edition also, at Sandown on August 21st.  Once again this caters for an almost identical portion of the horse population, in this case mainly 0-85, but with the odd 0-90 and at Sandown a 0-95. There is a single maiden race on the Sandown schedule of seven races, but with a much-reduced prize. Yesterday’s fifth chapter was at Haydock, all six staged at non-Arena tracks and shown on Racing UK.

Where there is a reported £2 million to share out with the Racing League, that drops to more like £1.4 million for the Sunday Series, with its usual first prize being £15k rising to £18k at Sandown. While any stable can have Sunday Series runners, trainers and the horses they regard as suitable for the races have had to be registered for the Racing League.

It seems silly – that word again – that the East of England team in the Racing League extends to as far as 32 yards mostly in Newmarket with many of the very top involved. As each team can have only two representatives in each race, ridden by their nominated riders, even those Newmarket or rather the East, handlers might find it tough to get a runner.

They are at the foot of the table after the first day when London and the South are leading. Time was when Andrew Reid, in Mill Hill, was the only trainer with a London post code. He’s no longer in operation sadly.

The awful thing, for all the energy of the people that run the events, is that my reaction as a reformed punter is “so what?”  Racegoers can hardly be expected to adhere to any team for all Matt Chapman’s conviction. They want to back winners!

Owners lucky enough to get a horse in one of the three out-of-the-norm events can be rewarded by much better money than for normal races in those handicap categories. But it is far from easy for ordinary horses to get a run and even when they do, even tougher to win one.

To cater for the Racing League, races have had to be taken away from existing programming, thus limiting opportunities for stables that have not been registered. I have been told that notification of when that registration could and should be made had not been easy to find on the BHA site, or timely so for that matter.

The Shergar Cup started at around the time that Peter Savill was the boss of the BHB, the regulator's previous guise. Now Savill has intervened in the debate on whether the number of races and fixtures should be reduced. A figure of 300 - William Haggas among other top trainers likes that number – seems the starting point, but at a time when the BHA seems less able to control either fixtures or the individual races in them, with the tracks calling the tune, it will be an uphill battle.

Racecourses, in these times of falling attendances, are aggressively opposed to any reduction as their media rights return is based on the number of races staged. Arena is one grouping apparently implacable in resisting any cutbacks, but the trainers want fewer races, with the available money to be shared out to bolster the races and cards that remain.

One Racing League trainer, Joseph Tuite, listed in the Wales and the West team, will not be participating.  The Lambourn handler had a complement of 25 in the 2022 edition of Horses in Training but when last week he announced he would be closing his stable, he was down to a bare nine or ten.

His plight reinforced my conclusion that the biggest stables simply get bigger and more powerful. The handicap system plays to their advantage as they monopolise the 0-90 categories. Their best horses can be left to the Stakes races. Those lower down the scale get workable marks after their qualifying runs and can exploit the system to the detriment of the smaller stables – and that’s the 50-80 strong yards, not just those like Tuite’s.

With three wins in the Shergar Cup on Saturday, one 0-90 Classified and two handicaps, William Haggas is the ideal trainer to illustrate the point. So skilful has he been in playing the system, he is the acknowledged master of producing winners of valuable handicaps, often running up multiple sequences.

With 12 wins from his 46 runners over the past fortnight, he had an astonishing 27 (around 60%) of them starting favourite. He is most unlikely to catch Charlie Appleby as he goes unchallenged at the top of the trainers’ table. But, with his yard so stocked with lightly-raced, progressive handicappers, he has clearly supplanted the Gosden yard as the most feared challenger for the biggest handicap prizes in the programme. For a start, what’s he got in the Ebor?

- TS

Roving Reports: An Unexpected Shower

/in /by

So when I left you last, York was to be my next port of call, with a weekend on the Knavesmire on the cards, writes David Massey. I was hoping to be working in the ring, but circumstances once again meant I was on the rails for both days. 

Friday night was another of the music nights, with a second chance for me to see Madness after Haydock the week before. The evening can be summed up easily enough, with business no more than steady but results in our favour. It was a different crowd than Haydock's night, who were there for a laugh, although the stewards clearly holding no truck with anyone wearing the regulatory fez in the County enclosure hardly helped the atmosphere on our side. 

Saturday was also a music event, with The Sugababes after racing. As you'd expect, a mixed crowd, with some there for the racing but most for the music. Now, some novice crowds are easily trained, and by that I mean within a race or two you've got them asking for selections by numbers, not names, and they've twigged an each-way bet costs twice what they ask for, but sadly not this lot. As a collective, they aren't getting what I'm asking of them. By race five I've long given up and have accepted defeat. The only reason I have caved in is, quite simply, I'm not that busy. This is a Saturday afternoon at York, and yet there are long periods of not taking a bet. I look over at Gordon on the Keith Johnson pitch. Gordon, who has been doing the job longer than anyone cares to remember, is shaking his head in disbelief. If you can't be busy on a Saturday afternoon at York, then we are going to have to accept that things are never going to be what they were pre-Covid. The new normal, indeed. 

I stay over in Wakefield after racing, with Pontefract on the Sunday. I will not name the place I stayed in overnight, suffice to say if you've ever seen an episode of 24 Hours In Police Custody, my room wasn't far removed from those that they lock the wrong 'uns up in whilst they collect the evidence. There appeared to be plenty of evidence in my room, to be fair, with some dubious-looking stains on the ceiling, and a beetle or two in what was left of the carpet. I couldn't wait to get out the next morning. It's fair to say I'll not be staying there again. 

The places I stay as I travel around vary. Most of the time it's a Premier Inn, and they're absolutely fine in the main but if I'm booking myself into an Airbnb, then the quality varies. The worst two I've ever stayed in have both been in Brighton, with one a couple of steps up from a Stalag (a tin of evaporated milk for your tea/coffee, not ideal/Ideal) and in the other I slept on a futon seemingly made of concrete. I've also stayed in one in Hampshire that was essentially a pink boudoir, complete with frills, that looked nothing like it did in the photos. One of the best was near Wetherby, where the lady in charge threw in a cooked breakfast the next morning for nothing. I ought to have stayed there rather than Wakefield, thinking about it. 

It's been so long since I've seen any meaningful rain that it came as a shock at Pontefract the next day. It was supposedly showers from 4pm according to the forecasters but they couldn't have been more wrong. It started raining steadily from 1pm, a bit on and off at first, but it got heavier as the afternoon went on. Pontefract gave out a load of plastic ponchos to the crowd to keep them dry, a good initiative. The letters on the back of the ponchos were suppose to spell out PONTEFRACT if you lined them up in the right order, but it seems they ran out of ponchos after the first T. As such, lots of OOOO's, POTS, STOP, and TONS walking around but as you'd rightly expect at Ponte Carlo, no fops. 

The rain gets heavier still just as we are packing the gear away. You remember me telling you last time that now is a great time to work for one of the books, as they are short of workers? Well, this is the bit I didn't tell you in the brochure. By the time it's all away I'm absolutely soaked through and, worse, the quick route to the car has been cut off by the crowd, who have stayed to watch the Tina Turner tribute act. It's less Steamy Windows and more Windscreen Wipers now but fair play, plenty have stuck around for a singsong. I'm grateful to get home by half seven that night and the shower is most welcome. 

The final week of July sees me take in Yarmouth, where Bob Cooper will tell me to "get lost" after his Quadpot bites the dust (that after his Placepot had bitten the dust the race before). Bob is an absolute joy to be around, there's nobody drier or funnier when he's on a roll, and I love bumping into him on my travels. I stay in nearby Acle that night and when I wake Tuesday morning, there are five police motorcycles and one police car outside the hotel. I think to myself, "well, you've had a good run, they were always going to catch up with you one day" before, in fact, they troop off into Starbucks to grab a morning coffee. The Gunfight at the OK Corral is not going to happen. Not today, anyway. 

And finally, before Goodwood, it's Sandown and Nile Rogers. Business is good, the crowd are happy and having a bet, and it's a very enjoyable night. Sadly, though, the last is a bit of a farce, with a withdrawal that barely anyone hears, and a stewards enquiry called as the winner and second come together near the line. No problem so far, but then the enquiry drags on a bit and Nile and Chic can wait no longer. They get the Good Times going whilst there are still queues waiting to get paid out, only now nobody can hear a thing, and we've no idea what's happened as far as the enquiry has gone, or indeed what the Rule 4 is on the withdrawal. Blank faces all round and we have to take to social media to find out the relevant information. 

I say again to the courses - USE THE BIG SCREENS! Is it that difficult to get across the relevant information everyone needs? Thankfully we have an understanding crowd, but it is still almost half an hour after the last before everyone has been paid out, and I apologise for the wait. I'm almost apologising for the track, which I shouldn't have to do. It's not my fault nobody could hear any announcements, yet I somehow feel some responsibility for the delays. 

An hour after the last, the gear is in the car, and we are off to Guildford, which will be our Goodwood base for the rest of the week. And yes, before you say anything, that does mean two hours of driving to the course and back every day. Another thing I forgot to mention in the brochure. Never mind, the Premier Inn has a walk-in shower. Oh, the luxury...

- DM

Monday Musings: The New King of the Stayers

/in /by

Listening to one racing show last week I was surprised to learn that the broadcaster talking about the Goodwood Cup had not known the race distance had once been two miles and five furlongs rather than the two miles of nowadays, writes Tony Stafford. Why would he, he probably hadn’t been born when the last marathon was staged in 1990?

Funnily enough, as they went over the winning line on Tuesday, the thought crossed my mind that if the longer distance – midway between the two and a half of the Gold Cup and the just short of two miles and threequarters of the Queen Alexandra – was still in operation, the verdict would not have been any different.

We were used in the days of Ardross and Le Moss between 1979 and 1982, when both won the Gold Cup at Ascot twice and then three Goodwood Cups between them, to small fields being the order of the day.

They used to doddle around and then the favourite would generally put in a burst two furlongs out and take the race. So far removed were they from the run-of-the-mill staying handicap performers of their time that few were ever persuaded to take them on.

Not today though. Just as at Royal Ascot and the Gold Cup, first prize here was £283k, with places starting at £107k, through £53k, £26k, £13k and £6,000 for sixth, the lavishly endowed Glorious Goodwood meeting, backed by Qatar, the money was identical all the way down. Nowadays, there’s nothing lost in brave defeats with that sort of remuneration to go with them. There are plenty of poorer prizes around.

The Gold Cup had revealed a new star, although the betting before Ascot’s showpiece left us in no doubt that Kyprios was “expected”.

Slinking away after his fourth in the Lingfield Derby Trial in May last year, Kyprios looked anything but a potential champion stayer. But the Aidan O’Brien recuperation centre has no peer and, when he came back 11 months later to win a Navan Listed race at 5/1 over 14 furlongs, the son of guess who was on his way. You guessed, Galileo, of course.

Bookmakers were alerted now, so when he went on to a four-horse Group 3 at Leopardstown three weeks later, he was a 1/10 chance and won by 14 lengths. In the Gold Cup, he won narrowly from last year’s Derby runner-up, Mojo Star, in a race where Stradivarius took most of the headlines. His defeat was not the main issue, but it was more significant for the sacking, temporarily for the Gosden stable, and permanently by owner Bjorn Neilsen, of the champ’s long-time partner Frankie Dettori.

Mojo Star wasn’t there on Tuesday, but Stradivarius was, with a new partner in Andrea Atzeni, and also Trueshan, enabled to take his chance to repeat last year’s defeat of Stradivarius in the race by the bountiful employment of the Goodwood watering system.

On a day when there were plenty of owners and trainers grumbling at the significantly altered ground, it brought to the race the treasure of Trueshan who had been pulled out late both for the Gold Cup and Queen Alexandra after a couple of anxious and eventually frustrated weather watches by trainer Alan King and his owners.

He did get his June date though, up at Newcastle the following week when, from a mark of 120, he carried 10st8lb to an unthinkable win in the Northumberland Plate, causing the handicapper to put him up to 124.  So what a race we had in prospect and that’s without considering the other sextet who wanted to push on into the elite grouping.

Most obvious of these was Coltrane. Andrew Balding’s progressive stayer was second in the Chester Cup, won the Ascot Stakes and then a Sandown Listed (by ten lengths). Add the Group 1 winning Irish mare Princess Zoe, and Melbourne Cup bound Enemy and you have the deepest of deep races.

Sometimes an appetising prospect can fall flat, but not this time. In the home straight, with outsider Thunderous leading narrowly from Kyprios, the other three top contenders were winding up for the finale. As Thunderous dropped away leaving Kyprios in front, Trueshan loomed up on the outside, causing commentator Simon Holt to anticipate him and Hollie Doyle going straight past and win the Cup for the second time.

Then, on the inside, having extricated his mount from a brief mini-pocket, Atzeni challenged with the indomitable Stradivarius and his run proved longer lasting than Trueshan’s. But having faced both challenges, Ryan Moore, riding as well as ever this summer, asked his mount for a response and readily saw them off.

Riding rhythmically with his stick in his left hand, Moore called in Kyprios’ hidden resources and the answer was instantaneous. Kyprios was going away at the finish and although the winning margin was only a neck it was clear-cut. It was generally accepted that the early pace had been steady, but they came home to such good effect that the time was comfortably below standard.

Afterwards Moore suggested that, if there had been a stronger pace, Kyprios would have won more easily. Only four, he has years ahead of him and he could possibly run up a sequence in the Gold Cup and Goodwood Cup to match Stradivarius and Yeats, his own much-admired forerunner at Ballydoyle. Had it been at 2m5f, all three would have still been at the forefront and you have to conclude that the result would have been no different but maybe more emphatic in favour of the younger horse.

The best news was that Stradivarius, tipped for retirement leading up to Goodwood, may now go on to the Group 2 Lonsdale Stakes at York. Worth half as much as the Goodwood Cup, victory there would still be a worthwhile day out as the prospective stallion continues his farewell tour.

*

I had a nice chat with Charlie Appleby on Tuesday when he was still disappointed that his 2,000 Guineas and St James’s Palace Stakes winner Coroebus was unable to take up his attempt at ending Baaeed’s flawless record in the Sussex Stakes. With eight from eight in just over a year and a passable imitation of Frankel in terms of his career stopping off points, William Haggas’s four-year-old was the inevitable focus of attention, but Appleby did well to dig out another Classic winner of 2022 to tackle him.

Modern Games won the Poule d’Essai des Poulains (French,2.000 Guineas) on his comeback this year, and although twice a beaten favourite in Group 1’s in France since - when third to Vadeni in the French Derby and then a close fifth to Tenebrism at Deauville - he is a solid top-level performer.

Appleby’s sharp footwork brought a £215k second place in a race worth precisely double the Goodwood Cup. He edged out last year’s Sussex Stakes heroine, Alcohol Free, who most recently had won the July Cup at Newmarket. Baaeed, held up, breezed past them both with economy and disdain. The margin in distance was one and a half lengths; in class, considerably more.

I loved Haggas’s assessment of the performance:

“It was like riding the Tour De France on a motorbike.”

True words, and some of his fellow trainers, who day to day struggle to match his skilfully-placed and “thrown-in” handicappers, often have a similar sinking feeling.

- TS

Trainers in Two-Year-Old Races, Part 3

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This is the third in a series of articles where I have delved into the performance of trainers over the past few years, writes Dave Renham. I have been looking at UK races over the past six full seasons (1st January 2016 to 31st December 2021) and my focus, as in the first two episodes is two-year-old (2yo) races; all profits / losses have been calculated to Industry Starting Price using £1 level stakes. These figures could be improved by taking early prices with Best Odds Guaranteed and / or using the exchanges. In fact I have referenced Betfair SP profits where appropriate in what follows. For this piece, in addition to the Geegeez Query Tool, I will be using a couple of external databases to provide additional colour.

Parts 1 and 2 can be read here and here.

Horse career starts

My first port of call in this part three is quite an important one. 2yos are the youngest racehorses and hence are very inexperienced when it comes to racing. This can be seen when we compare the overall strike rate of 2yos on debut against subsequent runs: 

 

 

As can be seen, debutants prevail around 8% of the time, but this improves by roughly 1.5 times as we move to second and subsequent runs. That gives us a baseline to use, as it were, when we are examining individual trainers.

 

Trainers with 2yos making their debut

It's now time to drill down into individual trainer records with 2yo debutants. I have focused on those trainer who have saddled at least 75 debutants over the past six seasons. They are ordered by strike rate (Win%):

 

 

These are the top 20 in terms of win strike rate. All of them are in advance of the average 8% figure for all 2yo debutants shown above. A few are in profit, but in general these trainers have had one or more big priced winners that have skewed the figures. 

Charlie Appleby, who figured prominently in the first article of the series, has an outstanding strike rate with such runners, hitting his mark nearly 28% of the time which is quite amazing. Having said that his runners have still shown a loss to Industry SP. However, he did manage a small £7.99 profit (ROI +2.4%) to BSP.

What becomes more impressive when you dig deeper into Appleby’s figures is that over a third of his 2yos made their debut at Newmarket. Thus his runners are contesting some of the very best 2yo races. In fact, from limited data, he has been impressive at both the top courses of Ascot (6 wins from 15) and Goodwood (4 wins from 7) also. Finally when it comes to Appleby his record in sprints (5-6f) is particularly good with 32 wins from 78 (SR 41.0%) for a profit to SP of £26.21 (ROI +33.6%). Of course, he does also train some of the most regally bred and expensive juveniles.

Going back to his Newmarket 2yo debut stats, it is worth comparing his record there with other trainers. Below is a graph showing the strike rates of trainers who have had at least 30 2yo debutant runs at Newmarket.

 

 

As we see only Ralph Beckett is near the same ballpark as Appleby, and we have several excellent trainers with a strike rate of under 10%. In fact six of them are under 6%, with Michael Bell on zero. Clearly, Moulton Paddocks have their horses ready to roll from day one.

 

Trainers with 2yos on their second career start

Onto second runs now and, again, I am using a minimum of 75 runs and looking at the top 20 in terms of strike rate (Win%).

 

 

As one might expect, these trainers have secured significantly higher strike rates compared to the top 20 trainer debutant figures. A handful are in profit once more, and four of them have produced impressive A/E indices of 1.00 or above (Balding 1.02, Dods 1.21, Charlton 1.00, Dalgleish 1,13).

Charlie Appleby, who was the only trainer with a strike rate over 20% for his first starters, now stands at over 35%, with a further eight trainers having secured a 20% or better figure here.

At this juncture it makes sense to look at the one of the key comparisons; namely individual trainer strike rates with their second starters and comparing them with their debutant strike rate. All trainers who have had at least 75 runners in each group are shown. I have ordered them by 1st-2nd Ratio, a calculation where I have divided the 2nd start Win% by the debut [1st] Win%.

 

 

There is a good number of trainers whose 2yos really improve from first to second start. I mentioned near the beginning of the article that the benchmark ratio figure for the Win% improvement is around 1.5x, and 30 of the 48 trainers in the table have matched or exceeded that mark. However, care is needed when it comes to trainers whose debutants have a very low strike rate, especially those near the top of the table. Their 1st to 2nd Start Win% Ratios are skewed slightly as a result of their poor debut stats.

A comparison of the A/E indices now using the same idea of dividing the 2nd start figure by the debut one. A look at the highest ratios first:

 

 

Most of those that were in the top section of the Strike Rate Win% Ratios reappear here. However, the more interesting comparison comes when we analyse those with the lowest ratios:

 

 

The 14 lowest trainer A/E figures are shown, but Charlie Appleby and (Charlie and) Mark Johnston, who you'd be forgiven for thinking would be in that group (due to their low position in the Strike Rate Win% Ratio table), are not. In fact the Johnston A/E ratio is 1.00 and Appleby is 1.01. This implies their debutants and second starters offer similar value.

 

Trainers with 2yos on their third career start

I am not going to go into too much detail here, but I do want to share a top five of the strongest snippets that I have found:

  1. Sir Michael Stoute had 65 2yos making their third career start and a highly impressive 22 have won. This equates to a strike rate close to 34%. Returns of 10p in the £ to Industry SP have been achieved. This figure is doubled if using BSP. A staggering statistic is that 16 of his 21 runners that started as clear favourite have won.
  1. Saeed bin Suroor’s runners have won just shy of 30% of races on their third start. This improves to 40% (12 wins from 30) when looking at class 5 events.
  1. Andrew Balding has a 23.7% strike rate with third career starters (2yos), but beware runners on the all-weather in November and December – just 1 of 21 have won for him under those conditions.
  1. A few trainers have a big drop off from 2nd to 3rd starters. Clive Cox’s strike rate drops from 17% to 10.9%; Michael Dods drops from 17.4% to 8.6%, and David Simcock drops from 18.1% to 4.7%. 32% of Simcock’s runners placed which suggests that he has been unlucky and that this drop off may not be as bad it looks.
  1. Marco Botti has seen a big strike rate improvement with his third career starters. They have won 17.5% of their races compared with 9.1% for his second starters. Sir Mark Prescott sees a similar improvement from a lower starting base (10.7% versus 5.1%).

 

Knowing about all the facts and figures I have shared so far should help you make a more informed choices when analysing certain horses in 2yo races. As I have said many times before, I am a huge fan of having as much data as possible at our disposal.

 

2yo Trainer Odds Analysis

I want to move on and look next at some 2yo trainer market data. This can easily be sourced from the Geegeez Query Tool. I have split the market data in three price brackets – shorter priced runners (4/1 or less); mid-priced runners (9/2 to 9/1); and higher priced runners (10/1 or bigger). I want to look at value and to do this I am going to compare the three Actual vs Expected (A/E) indices of each trainer. [For a refresher on A/E and all of the metrics used on geegeez, check out this post]

The table below is not an exhaustive list but it includes many of the trainers who have appeared in this piece so far. To help with analysing the figures I have coloured any A/E index 1.00 or higher in GREEN, as this represents good value. Any A/E index 0.75 or lower I have coloured in RED as this represents poor value.

 

 

There is so much to consider when betting and ‘value’ is the most important thing. Of course, it is not always easy to know if you have a value price about a runner, and these A/E indices I am sharing with are based on past data. Thus, we cannot say for example that any Marcus Tregoning runner that starts 4/1 or shorter is good value, but we do know that in the past these runners have proved to be. His 1.39 A/E index shows this.

These odds-based trainer A/E indices are worthy of note. For instance, Charlie Appleby, who we have seen to positive effect in this article (and many times previously), can be seen to have an A/E index of just 0.3 for 2yos priced 10/1 or higher. I, for one, would not be interested in any Appleby runner priced in double figures based on that past data.

The Charlton stable, meanwhile, have excellent figures for juveniles sent off 4/1 and shorter (1.16) as well as from 9/2 to 9/1 (1.12): profits of 12p and 19p in the £ respectively. Their record with double figure runners is less good (0.75), and with those longer-priced two-year-old runners they have made losses of just over 27p in the £.

 

2yo Gender of horse analysis

The final piece of research for this article is connected with gender or sex of the horse, again sourced from Geegeez’s Query Tool.

There are more 2yo male runners than female ones; male runs have made up 56% of all runners in past six seasons, females 44%. Also males generally outperform females from a strike rate (Win%) perspective – 12.1% for males versus 9.5% for females. Males also have the edge when comparing A/E indices, with 0.88 (M) playing 0.84 (F), and IVs standing at 1.09 (M) v 0.89 (F). Of course it should be noted that not all 2yo races are mixed sex races – around 64% are races open to both sexes while male only and female only contests make up the other 36%.

I thought it would be interesting to see whether any trainer had a gender bias in their 2yo cohort; especially trainers who have fared better with 2yo fillies as opposed to colts/geldings. Below shows the top ten trainers in terms of producing better results with females as opposed to males. In other words those with the highest Win% Ratio of females to males. To qualify each trainer needed to have had at least 60 runners of each and attained a Win% (SR) with female runners of at least 8%.

 

 

The two stables that catch my eye are those of the Charltons and Roger Varian. Not surprisingly, perhaps, both trainers made a blind level stakes profit to SP on their female runners between 2016 and 2021.

There are another eight trainers who have turned the male/female edge round the other way. They are shown below:

 

 

Teams Crisford, O’Brien (Aidan), Balding and Dascombe all provided positive returns with their female runners to Industry SP. As stated in prior articles, care must be taken with Tom Dascombe since he has moved yards and is no longer retained trainer at Manor House Stables.

In terms of a potential male bias, only four trainers seem to have a strong one; these are Mick Appleby (12.1% v 4.4%), Hughie Morrison (10.9% v 3.7%), David Barron (12.8% v 3.5%) and Alan King (9.4% v 1.4%).

And finally...

This is the last 2yo piece in a series in which I have looked at several different areas hoping to guide you, the reader, to an edge over the crowd. In my next article I’ll begin examining some trainer data related to three-year-old performance, and I am expecting that to stretch to at least two further instalments. I’m heading to the Geegeez Query Tool to start my research right now; maybe I'll see you there?

Until next time...

- DR

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