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Pool betting is a particular love of mine, for two main reasons: fun, and value. Whilst these are not mutually exclusive, they are not necessarily mutually inclusive, either; which is to say, sometimes I bet for the hell of it - a placepot for a bit of interest, let's say - and sometimes I bet because there is tremendous value to be had (as well as the fun) with a chunky rollover pool.
Anyone who believes in holding multiple accounts in order to secure value - which will be most reading this - should have a tote option in the portfolio, in my view.
Here are a few things that appeal to me about the 'nanny'.
Free bets when you join up
As soon as you register and bet £5, you'll get two£10 free bets. One of these free bet tokens is for use in the placepot pools, and the other can be used in the single race pools (e.g. win, place, exacta, trifecta). So that's deposit and bet £5, and get £20 of free bet vouchers to play with.
No Limits Pool Betting & No Account Closures
As a pool operator, Tote pay out from the funds that are bet in, and so will not close your account because you are successful punter. As it is pool betting, they also won’t limit your stake just because you might actually be a winner!
Juicy rollovers
It is quite a regular occurrence for the jackpot pool to roll over: after all, it's often a tricky bet to land given that you have to find six consecutive winners. Often, but not always. Here's an example of a rollover last week:
The cumulative starting price odds on those six winners amounted to 1,509/1, with none of them returning bigger than the first leg's 10/3. The tote return for that bet was £4,202.90!
There are jackpot rollovers every week and, sometimes, these bets are extremely winnable.
If you place a win bet with Tote, and your selection comes first, you'll get the prevailing tote win dividend paid to you. However, if the industry starting price is higher, you also get reimbursed the difference. So you'll never endure that enormous irritation when you see what you believe to be a great price on the tote board only to cringe at the returned dividend which is below SP. Of course, if the tote return is bigger than SP, you're getting the tote return!
Tote+
One of the best things about tote these days is their tote+ concession. This is available on most tote markets (and is denoted on the tote website by a 'tote+' icon).
The concession pays an additional 10% on winnings in these markets when bets are struck either on the tote website or via their app.
So, in the two examples above, the dividends were topped up to £4,623.19 (vs 1509/1 SP) and £6,790.08 (vs 2,439/1 SP). Nice!
Using a random example of the race that has just finished at time of writing, the 8/13 fav beat 3/1 clear second favourite. Here, the straight forecast (SP derived bet involving choosing the first two home in the correct order) paid £2.76, whereas the exacta paid £3.40 which was boosted to £3.74. In old money, that's getting 11/4 about a 7/4 shot!
Guaranteed pool sizes
Tote guarantees the jackpot pool to a minimum of £10,000 for a £1 winning unit.
Why is this good? Because sometimes it's free money. In this case, the tote are making up the difference between the amount bet and minimum pool size guarantee. What that means is that there are less people to compete with for more cash, assuming you think the cumulative odds will pay less than 9,999/1 and you believe the pool will be won by one unit or less.
Look at this example from a few days ago:
This time the cumulative winning odds were 2,439/1 and the biggest-priced winner was 9/2.
There were 3,705 units (and so £3,705) in the pool, which was guaranteed to pay winners a share of £10,000.
The dividend returned £6,172.80 for a £1 stake. Value. Fun. And more value. (Except I left Felix out, sigh).
These are bets I play all the time: the jackpot at least once a week on average, and the placepot almost every day somewhere (though, as I said, not always 'seriously').
Loyalty bonuses
There is currently a promotion running called 'Stayers Club' whereby six bets placed of at least £2, £5 or £10 will qualify for a free bet to the same value the following Monday. Players need to opt in for this from the 'Promotions' page.
Free placepots / first leg insurance
Hardly a life changer, but a nice little extra, are the occasional £1 placepot free bets I've found in my account. Use it/them to try and string six placed horses together, and if you manage that, you'll have a bit to make a wider perm, or to withdraw and have a pint. Either way, you'll get a bit of fun for nada. I like those odds.
Also, on selected days/meetings, there is a first leg insurance in play whereby tickets going down on leg one will be refunded as credit (up to the value of £10). That's a nice way to take a banker in the opener and get the chance to try again another day if it fails to make the frame. All of those little concessions add to the bottom line, both financially and entertainment-wise. Even though many of us bet to win, that latter point should never be under-played; after all, if it's only for the money, we might as well go get a(nother) job, right?
Betting Tournaments
I've played in a few of these and they're great fun. You need to opt in, like most enhanced components on the site (terms and conditions, etc), and when you do - and place three bets with a combined total stake of at least £10 - you'll be eligible for the betting tournament. There's one on King George day (23rd July 2022) and others on each of Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday 26th to 28th July when both Goodwood and Galway will be racing.
The prizes are very healthy. For example, on King George day, the top three are as follows:
1st - £1,000
2nd - £500
3rd - £250
And the top ten players qualify for the final on British Champions Day (October 15th), which is a winner takes all prize of £50,000!
Performance is calculated by profit minus stakes, so the player with the most clear profit wins.
To keep it interesting for a larger number of players, there is a 'Beat Benson' bonus fund. Benson is Jamie Benson, tote writer, and he has a £300 tank to splurge each tournament day. For every player in the tournament, tote add £10 to the Beat Benson pot; the pot is shared between all players who make more profit than he does.
For example, let's say there are 1000 players: that's 1000 x £10 = £10,000 in the Beat Benson chest. And let's say you won £35 on a tricky day's betting, and Jamie Benson makes a loss. Let's finally say that there were 100 players who managed to secure a profit in the competition: those 100 (which includes you) all beat Benson and equally share the £10,000. So, £10,000 / 100 = £100.
£100 would be credited to all of those players in the tournament who beat Benson's losing score. Make sense?
I managed to get credited about £275 on one of the days at Royal Ascot: basically, you want Jamie to do well but every so slightly less well than you have fared! That makes for you being a winner, and fewer people sharing with you. Greedy, moi? 🤣
World Pool Days
These tend to coincide with betting tournament days, or vice versa, and they bring massive liquidity from around the globe into the British tote. One of the features of a global audience betting on British racing is that they - like us when we're wagering overseas - tend to focus on the names they know. So winners ridden by Frankie or Ryan are not generally the way to go, but those value five pound claimers are likely to pay notably over the odds as result of large chunks of cash dodging the international no-names. Obviously that's a broad brush statement, but the gist is that you and I know the form book here better than millions of the overseas cash, which gives us an edge.
It is also fair to say that the deep pools attract their share of whales - sophisticated heavy hitters - but there's more than enough to go round on days when the cumulative handle (total wagered) gets up around the £35 million mark thanks to players in Hong Kong, America and around the globe.
**
I absolutely love the tote, mainly because they give me plenty of chances to win more money by not being especially clever much of the time. And I feel this is one of the best value betting opportunities available right now, and really a lot of fun, too. Fun, and value/profit. That's the geegeez way. And, it appears, the tote way.
If you don't yet have an account, you can open one here. After you've staked your first £5 you'll receive £20 in free bets. Click the image below to bag your bonuses. Good luck!
One of the biggest weeks of Summer festival racing is upcoming, with both Galway and Goodwood hosting multi-day garden parties featuring Pimm's and ponies next week. The action on the track will be as heady as many of the next morning hangovers off it, and in such busy circumstances it can pay to revise ahead of time.
With that in mind, I've recorded a video looking at a few draw/run style angles for the two meetings. The idea, if not too pedagogic, is to share both a fish supper and an angling lesson. More specifically, here's what I'm looking out for next week, and here's how/why you might use a similar approach at other courses and distances.
In the video, I've referenced some other content on geegeez, as follows:
00:00 Intro
01:10 Establishing weather conditions
05:45 Galway course configuration
08:20 Draw and Run Style analysis setup
09:35 **Why use Percentage of Rivals Beaten?**
13:25 Galway 7f Draw / Run Style analysis
17:55 Galway 1m+ Draw / Run Style analysis
21:40 Goodwood 7f Draw / Run Style analysis, part 1
22:40 Goodwood course configuration
24:30 Goodwood 7f Draw / Run Style analysis, part 2
27:55 Goodwood 1m Draw / Run Style analysis
29:58 Outro
Matt
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/OneCoolPoet_Galway2019_hattrick.jpg316830Matt Bisognohttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngMatt Bisogno2022-07-21 09:32:152022-07-21 09:32:17Gold Nuggets: Flat Fez Draw & Pace Research
So, since Royal Ascot you might think things would go a little quieter, but you'd be wrong, very wrong, writes David Massey. Since then, I've visited Cartmel on our holidays the week after Ascot (highly recommended, if only to visit the Sticky Toffee Pudding shop - try the ginger one, superb, and only a thousand calories per spoonful), and have worked at Southwell, Stratford, Newbury, Haydock, York and Uttoxeter.
If ever you've thought about becoming a workman for one of the books, there's never been a better time to give it a try. Covid saw a lot of them, starved of work on the tracks for so long, take other, full time, jobs in driving and retail industries. When it was time to come back to the tracks, they simply said no, with more secure jobs on offer. No-one could blame them for taking such a stance but ever since plenty of the books have struggled to fill those positions and as such, particularly in the summer, they are simply unable to staff all their joints. Bookmakers with good pitches at big tracks are having to let them go to waste on a Saturday. Seriously, if you want racecourse work, it’s out there.
Haydock last Saturday was a prime example. A sell out crowd for Madness, we expected a full line of bookmakers in the Silver Ring, but only eight turned up. We couldn't get them on quick enough and even more so when my keyboard packed up on race three. Instead of two of us taking bets, we were down to just one, and that means you take twice as long to clear a queue that never went down. Technology is wonderful when it works, a pain in the backside when it lets you down at the most inconvenient of moments. [Hear hear! Ed.]
The fez (not to be confused with The Fez, jumps fans) was the headgear of choice for the crowd on Saturday (the Madness merchandise stall was knocking them out at seven quid a pop) although fair play to the one guy who went for the pith helmet (from the Night Boat To Cairo video) which looked pretty heavy. On a warm night, we salute you, sir.
As expected, it was all small money. One lad, in a "Billionaire's Boys Club" T-shirt, asks me for 50p e/w the favourite in the first. I'm guessing he's not a member. Or maybe he is, perhaps that's the key to riches.
"Mr Musk, how come you have so much money?"
"I keep stakes on those 0-65's at Haydock to an absolute minimum. The draw can be a complete guess-up."
With the last race at nine, it was midnight before I was back home, and thanks to Stratford bringing their meeting forward to a midday start, it meant rising at 7.30 Sunday morning to be there for 10am for Ladies Day. Oh, the glamour of it all. Fair play to Stratford, though; I was sceptical about the 12 start, thinking it would make little difference as far as the heat went, but it was the right decision, with the afternoon noticeably hotter than it was at lunchtime.
I like Stratford. It's a great little track that always gets a crowd and they all have a bet. It's all small money on Sunday, although someone came in with an even £300 on Pop The Champagne, which duly obliged. Pop The Champagne is owned by my friend Jill, who has had some success with High Wells recently, too. I say 'friend', she's actually my stalker, by her own admission! But it's always a pleasure to see her.
Haydock isn't the only late finish I've had recently. Newbury's evening meeting on the 7th saw me working on the rails, with business just fair. The most unusual thing about Newbury is the placement of the hand driers in the men's toilets, which are not actually in the toilets but the entrance, often resulting in people being unable to move if someone's using the drier, and blocking anyone going in or out. You wonder who thought that was a good idea.
Anyway, another post-midnight finish on the day and, worse still, quite possibly a speeding ticket. I'm generally good with speed limits (an unblemished license for seven years now) but with roadworks on the M1 I missed the 50 limit and the camera flashed. However, over a week has passed, and no ticket as yet. I'm now 10-11 each of two to get one, having been fours on last week, with just another 72 hrs to go. If I get one, I'll have worked for little that night.
From Newbury it was up to York the next day, where, rather than working in the ring as is usually the case, I was on the rails for John Smith’s day. It was busy from the word go, with plenty of decent bets coming in, although as was pointed out to me by my work colleague Martin, we were working next to two very attractive young ladies.
“How the hell are us ugly sods supposed to take a bet against them?” he groaned. Well, we just had to be as efficient as we could, clear the queue and then start pulling them in off the backs of the other queues, that’s how. To me, the Saturday was good business but it needed to be after a disaster of a Friday (four winning favourites, three second favourites) but one or two of the big books were saying business was about 30% down on pre-Covid levels. For some of them, the Saturday was something of an acid test to see whether business really has dropped off or if it could return, and the signs, according to plenty, were not good.
It does look as if this level of business is now the new normal, and some of the books are now having to cut their cloth accordingly. That, coupled with the lack of staff, means there’s plenty of pitches for sale right now, if you fancy a go yourself...
It's York again this weekend for me, which is always a laugh, especially if I'm on the back line next to the Paul Johnson crew. David, often seen on Racing Post Greyhound TV trying to put up a winner at his beloved Doncaster these days, has an opinion on most things, and most of them are wrong. He could start a fight with himself half the time, but he's a good friend and we'll spend the two days winding each other up. I'll tell you how that goes next time.
- DM
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/bettingring_goodwood.jpg319830David Masseyhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngDavid Massey2022-07-20 05:39:242022-07-20 07:11:09Roving Reports: No Rest for the Wicked
This is the first in a new series of articles where I will examine the performance of certain trainers over the past few seasons, writes Dave Renham. I will be using data from 1st January 2016 to 31st December 2021 giving us six full seasons to examine (UK racing only). For this piece my focus will be two-year-old races and I have used the Geegeez Query Tool as the sole source to gather the initial data. All profits / losses have been calculated to Industry Starting Price. Therefore one would expect that we could significantly improve upon the figures by using early prices, Best Odds Guaranteed and / or the exchanges.
Many punters latch on to specific trainers or groups of trainers as trainer patterns are quite a popular strategy for trying to beat the bookies. And there's logic in this: like all of us, trainers are creatures of habit, and follow a similar path year in year out. They generally stick to the same training methods, have favoured jockeys that they use where possible, know which races to target, and so on. This offers at least a reasonable chance that future results will correlate with prior ones. Let’s dig into the stats.
Trainer Performance in all 2yo races
First, let's look at all 2yo races. Below is a table for the top 20 trainers in terms of win strike rate (minimum 150 runs across the six seasons):
These are ordered by strike rate and it is no surprise to see that a good proportion of the top trainers in the country are present. Only five of them have made a blind profit to SP, which is to be expected. For the record, yards of the Crisfords, Beckett, Palmer and the Charltons also nudged into profit if using Betfair SP.
Charlie Appleby’s record stands head and shoulders above the rest in terms of strike rate, his 30% strike rate with 2yos over six years being remarkable.
If we order by the A/E index, a measure of the perceived sustainability of profitability, then we get the following top 20:
Six of the trainers in the top 20 two-year-old strike rate table appear here as well. However, we have a much more mixed bag of strike rates as A/E indices focus on ‘value’. Any A/E index higher than 1.00 indicates the trainer gets more winners than expected which is why 10 of the 20 trainers in the list have been profitable to SP. 17 of the 20 would have been profitable using BSP.
Charlie Appleby's 2yo record
Time to drill down into a couple of individual trainers starting with that man Charlie Appleby. Firstly let us compare his strike rate performance by season:
These figures are relatively consistent considering the type of races we are dealing with. Appleby made a profit at SP in 2017 and 2020 – the years with the highest strike rates. Also in those two years the A/E index went over 1.00 both times.
In terms of the sex of Appleby's 2yo runners, he has been more successful with males as the table below shows:
A higher strike rate by about 18% relatively and 5% in absolute terms, and much better returns - losing just 2.5 pence in the £ - on male runners is noteworthy. The A/E index and the IV figures also give male runners the edge. Why this is I am not sure; what is interesting though is that I had a quick look at Appleby's three-year-old data and males out-perform females there in virtually identical fashion. I am always hoping for these supporting elements when performing this type of research.
Appleby’s runners tend to start on the short side, in other words near the head of the betting market. This pie chart illustrates this neatly:
Nearly half of his 2yos - 396 runners out of 813 (49%) - have started favourite. Just 96 runners (12%) started 4th or bigger in the betting. The breakdown of top three in the betting versus 4th or bigger is also worth sharing with you:
It looks prudent to avoid any Appleby 2yo that starts 4th or bigger in the betting, with significant losses of nearly 60p in the £ having been incurred. Conversely, the Godolphin trainer has gone close to breaking even at Industry SP with horses that started in the top 3 of the betting lists.
The Shadwell Stud sire Dubawi is a popular one when it comes to Appleby 2yos. This stallion has been responsible for 121 of the 2yos in Moulton Paddocks stable over the past six seasons. These 121 horses have run 254 times for Appleby in 2yo races, registering an impressive 89 victories, a 35% strike rate. Backing all Appleby Dubawi 2yo runners would have seen a break even situation at Industry SP. For the record, when we look at these 121 individual horses, 70 of them managed to win at least one race (58% winners to runners).
Aidan O'Brien's 2yo record
Let’s dig down a bit into the Aidan O'Brien stable next. Remember, we are looking only at UK form and, clearly, O'Brien sends over from Ireland many of his better 2yos, the majority of which race at either Newmarket or Ascot. Indeed, Newmarket runners account for more than half of his 2yo runners on these shores. What caught my eye the most was his record when contesting the top two tiers of race, namely Group 1 or Group 2 prizes. His record in both read as follows:
These are eye-catching strike rates considering the competitiveness of such races, and there is a commensurately excellent return on investment in both.
I also looked at O'Brien's performance in terms of market rank. His favourites have done extremely well, but what was interesting is that when comparing 2nd, 3rd favs etc, there is not that much in the figures:
By way of comparison, the second favourite strike rate for ALL trainers is close to 21%. O'Brien's is down at 15.15%, whereas I would have expected it to be nearer 25%.
Before moving on, I would be wary of backing any O'Brien 2yo that had any type of headgear (blinkers, tongue tie, etc). 39 of his runners raced in headgear in the six years of study but only five won. Backing all of them would have yielded a loss of just over 38 pence in the £.
Non-handicaps versus handicaps
So far I have not split the data into non-handicap and handicaps. This is mainly due to the fact that non-handicaps account for roughly 80% of all 2yo races. Also, for many of the top performing 2yo trainers, this 80% figure tends to be higher. For example, 93% of Charlie Appleby 2yos have run in non-handicaps; and others at 90% or more include Roger Varian (93%), Sir Michael Stoute (95%) and John Gosden (94%). Hence for the remainder of this article I will be narrowing my focus only slightly to focus on the large non-handicap subset.
[The second article in this series will look at some of the 2yo handicap data]
Non-handicap performance by race distance
Juveniles have a ceiling in terms of how far they can race in Britain, the reason being that they are young horses in their first season of racing. They generally have not built up the necessary stamina to tackle longer distances. Here is a graph showing the breakdown of 2yo non-handicap races in terms of distance – it looks at the percentage of races run at each distance:
This shows us that 83% of all 2yo non-handicaps are contested over seven furlongs or shorter. A mile and a quarter, ten furlongs, is generally the longest distance 2yos have to race, but there has been a race at Kempton in December of the past two years over 1m3f. One of the pair was won by a 100/1 shot and the first four home in the other were priced at 22/1, 50/1, 9/1 and 50/1!
It should also be noted that for the first two full months of the two-year-old season (April and May) races are primarily over the sprint trips of 5f and 6f. Indeed there have been just five 7f races run in May over the past six seasons. Races of a mile-plus don’t properly kick in until August.
It's time to break trainer juvenile non-handicap performance down by distance now. I am going to split the distances into three: 5 to 6f (including 6.5f); 7f to 1m; and 1m 1f or more.
2yo non-handicaps over 5-6 furlongs
So, sprint distances first. In the chart below the top 15 trainers are shown, in terms of strike rate. The data is restricted to trainers who have had a minimum of 70 runners in the sample period:
Charlie Appleby tops the list once again and his runners actually made a tiny profit at Industry SP (ROI 1.25%). Others trainers to make a blind profit were Owen Burrows, Clive Cox, Andrew Balding, Martyn Meade and Ralph Beckett. Let's now look at the A/E indices for these 15 trainers, which will help to show the trainers who have proved the best value:
Six trainers have exceeded the 1.00 value benchmark, while three trainers have low figures - Saeed bin Suroor (0.79), Roger Varian (0.81) and Hugo Palmer (0.8). In ROI terms, bin Suroor runners lost 36 pence in the £, Varian’s lost 26p in the £, and Palmer’s runners lost 29p for every £ staked.
When examining most racing statistics we need an overall view – strike rate, ROI%, A/E indices and Impact Values need to be used in conjunction with each other.
2yo non-handicaps over 7f to 1 mile
In general, these longer distances are contested by better 2yos so it will be interesting to see how individual trainers fare. Again I have used 70 runs as a minimum threshold to qualify. Let’s look at the top 15 trainers by strike rate first:
In terms of profitability, only the Charlton stable have made a blind profit and barely at that. Perhaps this shows the overall competitiveness of 7f-1m races. Moreover, just two have hit over 1.00 in terms of the A/E index (the Charltons and David Simcock).
Sticking with the Beckhampton Stables yard of Harry and Roger Charlton for a moment there are three further statistics I want to share. Firstly, when saddling the favourite in these races they have won an impressive 22 races from 40 (SR 55%) for a profit of £12.37 to £1 level stakes (ROI +30.9%); secondly, when his runners start second favourite they have also made a profit thanks to 10 wins from 28 (SR 35.7%) for a profit of £7.50 (ROI +26.8%); and thirdly, 2yos that race at Newbury in 7f-1m non handicaps have done well winning 12 races from 45 (SR 26.7%) for a profit of £35.41 (ROI +78.7%).
Of course, it is extremely useful knowing which trainers have the best records, but it is also worth looking at those trainers with the poorest records. Here are the trainers with the lowest strike rates in 7f-1m 2yo non-handicaps:
Although a couple of these trainers have made a profit, this is down to a random big priced winner or two; in general, the figures for these trainers are very poor. Hence I personally would avoid them in such contests.
2yo non-handicaps of 1m 1f or longer
With these races making up less than 4% of 2yo non-handicap races in the UK, it means we have limited data to work with. Indeed, only seven trainers have had 40 or more runners at these longer distances in the past six seasons. For the record here are their stats:
That man Charlie Appleby is impressive once more, while the Gosden and Johnston stables have had the greatest number of runners but neither has been profitable to follow.
Individual trainers: comparison by distance
I thought it would be interesting to end this article by comparing the data for all trainers who have had at least 50 two-year-old runners in both 5f to 6f non-handicaps and 7f to one mile non-handicaps. It should be noted at this point that 7f-1m races have a slightly bigger average field size: 9.3 runners on average compared with 9.0 for 5-6f races. Hence this will have a small effect on trainer strike rate comparisons. For that reason, I will not only compare strike rates, but A/E indices and Impact Values too.
The right hand three columns compare the short trip data with the longer trip data by creating a ratio of one to the other. The greater the number above 1.00, the more sprints are favoured; the smaller the number below 1.00, the more longer races are favoured. For example, Andrew Balding won 1.35 times as often with his five- to six-furlong juvenile non-handicappers as he did with his seven furlong to mile ones; while David Simcock won 0.87 times as frequently (i.e. his 7f-1m non-handicap runners won at a higher strike rate than his 5f-6f equivalents).
Taking these distance data into account may assist when analysing 2yo non-handicaps races in the future.
There are some trainers who clearly perform better in 2yo non-handicap sprints as compared to 7f-1m races. A handful stand out to me when it comes to having a real edge in sprints compared to longer races – they are Jane Chapple-Hyam, Paul & Oliver Cole, Marcus Tregoning, Owen Burrows, Clive Cox, Ismail Mohammed, Stuart Williams, Jedd O’Keefe and David O’Meara. In terms of an advantage in the longer races there is not too much to go at: perhaps Sir Michael Stoute would be one to note but it is a marginal preference rather than a very strong one.
I hope this article will prove useful when evaluating 2yo races in more detail. My next piece will share more facts and figures relating to trainers and two-year-olds. Until then...
- DR
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/charlieappleby2-1.jpg320830Dave Renhamhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngDave Renham2022-07-19 09:19:142022-11-10 11:59:25Trainers in Two-Year-Old Races, Part 1
All is not well in the United Kingdom, writes Tony Stafford. No, not the fact that racing in the Midlands and South today and tomorrow has been called off because of the expectation of heatwave conditions. Everything seems to be grinding to a halt, apart from Covid which is enjoying an unexpected out-of-season revival.
We used to talk about “First World problems” when the wealthy had some of their expected enjoyment interrupted. Now we’re more like a Third World country, maybe not quite at the stage where, according to one much-used definition, “A country which struggles to meet basic human needs”, but one where daily frustrations are occurring more frequently wherever you look.
Covid of course has much to answer for, not least in the breakdown of international air travel. Contagion decimated (yes, I know it means reduced to a tenth! – so used advisedly) passenger travel and even as demand and eligibility to fly have begun to return to normal, staffing still has not.
On two days last week, Heathrow and Stansted, two of the three biggest airports in the UK, had problems for two of our leading stables. Much was made of Emily Upjohn’s being stranded at Stansted prior to her planned departure for Dublin and the Irish Oaks on Saturday. She might not have beaten Jessica Harrington’s Magical Lagoon, following on from her Ribblesdale Stakes victory, but she would have started favourite.
Incidentally, the Ribblesdale was also mentioned for the Gosden filly as a likely consolation after her narrow defeat by Tuesday in the Oaks at Epsom. For a few strides on Saturday, another Ballydoyle distaff dredged up from the never-ending (until two years’ time anyway) supply of Galileo fillies, in the shape of Toy, loomed; but Magical Lagoon, also a daughter of the great sire, saw off her late challenge in determined style.
The other sufferer was a human one. Hughie Morrison had enjoyed a nice trip to Paris for the Bastille Day card at Longchamp on Thursday and, after a leisurely evening celebrating Quickthorn’s smooth victory in the £62k to the winner Group 2 Prix Maurice De Nieuil, he set off for Heathrow on Friday.
I needed to call him that morning and received a text instead saying, “Plane unable to land at Heathrow as it is too busy so have just landed back in Paris.” I haven’t had need to call Hughie since but trust he has managed to get back to base somehow in the interim.
Quickthorn, who was runner-up in last year’s Ebor to subsequent Irish St Leger winner Sonnyboyliston, is one of 84 horses nominated to next month’s renewal and contenders will be flexing their muscles aiming at the £300,000 first prize. Yes, don’t worry Gary Coffey, I am aware both Desert Crown and Quickthorn are by Nathaniel, and Westover by his Galileo contemporary, Frankel.
Meanwhile Emily Upjohn, denied a shot at the £240k available for Saturday’s Irish Classic, could be nominated this morning for a race worth three times as much as early as this weekend. According to the bookmakers, the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes has three potential leading contenders, the respective Derby and Irish Derby winners, Desert Crown and Westover, and Emily Upjohn.
No doubt Chris Stickels will be throwing the water on in a valiant attempt to provide a tolerable surface for all who show up. Fast ground versus a £700k prize: a truly First World problem!
The obvious drawback to an Emily Upjohn challenge is Mishriff, also trained by the Gosdens. His fast finish at Sandown after David Egan found trouble in running in that small field was highly creditable. By the way, that was by no means the only time young Master Egan got there too late in recent rides.
The main race every year on the evening Bastille Day card is the Grand Prix de Paris, effectively the French counterpart to the Derby since the shortening of the distance of the Prix du Jockey Club to 10.5 furlongs (2100 metres).
While the Jockey Club winner, Vadeni, went on to win the Eclipse Stakes from the aforementioned never nearer Mishriff at Sandown earlier this month, five-length runner-up El Bodegon was one of three international challengers for the six-horse Grand Prix prize.
James Ferguson’s runner was preferred in the market by Roger Varian’s unbeaten young stayer Eldar Eldarov, who had won the Queen’s Vase at Royal Ascot. Ferguson’s colt, a Group 1 winner as a juvenile in France, won their domestic argument but the Jockey Club form was turned over. Onesto, trained by Frank Chappet, had been fifth at Chantilly but came through to win here from another French colt, Simca Mille, the neck runner-up, with the Newmarket pair well behind in third and fourth.
Some of the weekend’s most exciting sport came at Newbury when the Weatherbys Super Sprint was, as ever, a highlight. It provided an all-the-way win for Eddie’s Boy, a throwback flying juvenile winner for Archie Watson who appeared to have gone away from his initial style of training, but with Hollie Doyle’s assistance reverted to type. Eddie’s Boy went off like the proverbial substance off a shovel and never looked likely to be troubled by any of the other 19 speedsters in the field.
The win came 90 minutes after a similarly facile victory by Little Big Bear in the Anglesey Stakes at The Curragh. The 2-5 shot, one of a bumper weekend of O’Brien/Moore juvenile winners, had previously won the Windsor Castle Stakes when Eddie’s Boy was third.
The Ascot second, George Scott’s Rocket Rodney, had gone on to win the Listed Dragon Stakes at Sandown and on Friday, Chateau, fourth at Ascot for Andrew Balding, won Newbury’s Listed Rose Bowl Stakes with a strong finish. Some race the Windsor Castle, normally the weakest of the Ascot juvenile contests, is turning out to have been.
The most compelling performance of the lot though was undoubtedly the first appearance in the UK of the now William Haggas-trained German import, Grocer Jack, who was bought for 700,000gns at last year’s Tattersalls Autumn Horses In Training sale having only recently clocked up his second career victory on his 14th start.
Admittedly, he had compiled a good record in Group 3 company in France last summer, winning once, and the year before was third over the line to In Swoop and the following year’s Arc winner, Torquator Tasso, in the German Derby before being disqualified when a banned substance was found in his post-race sample.
After the purchase, the now Saudi-owned five-year-old raced once in his owner’s country, finishing fifth in a Group 3 on the under-card of the Saudi Cup, in which Mishriff finished last having won the race 12 months previously.
Then Grocer Jack had a run-out in early June in France, finishing fourth, so hardly a performance that prepared us for what was to come at Newbury. Sent off by Tom Marquand in front in the Listed bet365 Stakes, the Grocer appeared to be taking matters into his own hands by racing very freely. The conventional thought was to expect Grocer Jack to come back to his field. He didn’t, and instead stretched the lead out to nine lengths by the finish, a margin that could probably have been more likely extended to 15 had Marquand wished.
The only reason I sat up and took notice of the horse is the memory of a song, called An Excerpt From a Teenage Opera from 1967 by an artist called Keith West – I know it’s a while ago. The subject of the song is Grocer Jack and it relates how he disappeared from the corner shop he ran for many years
Near the end, there’s the line, repeated more than once which says “Grocer Jack, Grocer Jack, he won’t come back!” He didn’t!
- TS
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/Tuesday_beats_EmilyUpjohn_Oaks_Epsom2022.jpg319830Tony Staffordhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngTony Stafford2022-07-18 08:33:022022-07-18 14:19:55Monday Musings: First World Problems
In this article I am once again revisiting one of my favourite areas – the run style of horses, writes Dave Renham. As with the last article I am focusing on the run style profile of specific horses, using data from 2021 initially and then looking at 2022 results up to the time of writing. Initially, though, we will look at a bigger data set in order to set the scene.
For new readers let me explain run style. Essentially, run style is the position a horse takes up very early on in the race, normally within the first furlong or so. Run styles on this website are split into four categories, as follows:
Led (4) – front runners; a horse that takes an early lead (occasionally more than one horse disputes the lead, in which case we can have more than one ‘front runner’); Prominent (3) – horses that race directly behind the early leader(s); Mid Division (2) – horses that race mid pack or 'in touch' with the leaders; Held Up (1) – horses that race at, or near the back of the field early.
The number in brackets is the run style score that is assigned to each category. These numbers are extremely useful and I will again be using them later to create what I call ‘horse run style averages’.
Each race within the Geegeez racecards has a PACE ‘tab’ from where we can view some past run style data for the race in question. The word ‘pace’ is often used as an alternative to run style as the ‘early pace’ shown by each horse determines the position they take up soon after the start of the race. A maximum of the last four runs is shown as we can see below in this race taken from Epsom in July:
The latest run (LR) shows the run style in the most recent race, 2LR in the second most recent race, and so on. The last four runs are totalled for members (Total), and an average figure (Ave) is calculated also. In this race the most likely early leaders according to totals/averages were Toussarok and Pablo Del Pueblo. As it turned out, the opening furlong saw Pablo Del Pueblo lead with Toussarok racing in second place. Concierge, who had by far the lowest run style/pace total, conformed to past run style data also by racing at the back early.
And so it is that these pace/run style figures are useful in trying to determine beforehand how a race is likely to be run early on. They are of course not fool proof, but then, what is? Horses are animals, after all – they cannot tell us how they are going to run - and trainers and jockeys will potentially have an influence also (they, like us, are animals, too!)
If you have read any of my previous run style articles, you will know that early leaders generally have a solid edge in races; and particularly in races over shorter distances. For that reason, I am always looking to find means of improving my ability to predict a race's front runner / early leader.
It's time to give you some stats: as you probably know, we tend to call five- and six-furlong races ‘sprints’ due to the fact they are the shortest two distances in flat racing. Looking at all 5f and 6f races in the UK from 2017 to 2020 gives us the following run style strike rates:
These raw strike rates show a significant run style bias. One in every five wins was for the race early leader, while hold up horses only won around 1 in 16 of such sprint races. In essence, leaders in 5f or 6f races are over three times more likely to win than any individual horse up horse.
If we examine the A/E and IV values too we can see that these correlate strongly with the overall strike rates above:
The bias to front runners occurs in both handicap and non-handicaps over these sprints trips; and, while the win SR% is higher in non-handicaps, this is mainly due to the average field size being smaller. A/E and IV values are strong regardless of race type for these front runners.
So there is the background to the article and hopefully the graph above backs up what I mentioned earlier in terms of always looking for ways to improve our chances of predicting the front runner, more especially in sprint races.
Now to the meat and bones of my latest research where the focus is, not surprisingly, going to be UK races over 5 and 6 furlongs. There are also strong links to my previous article in terms of comparing two recent time frames, as you will see.
My initial dataset looked at all such races in 2021. To begin with I focused on all horses aged three or older that had raced at least four times in sprints. I used 3yos and older horses because I wanted to look at more experienced runners who, I contend, would be more likely to have developed a run style preference.
Horse run style averages
My first port of call was to produce run style averages for each horse, in exactly the same way that I have created run style averages in the past. To achieve this, I added up the Geegeez pace / run style points for each horse over the 2021 season and divided it by the number of races. The higher the average the more prominent the horse tends to race. The averages ranged from 4.00 (horses that led in every race they contested in 2021) to 1.00 (horses that were held up in every race they contested in 2021). Remember, I was exclusively using races over 5 and 6 furlongs to create my averages, so some of these horses may have run over further at some point in the season; those longer races have been ignored in order to allow for a 'pure' sprint dataset.
Once these figures were recorded, I then looked at the 2022 run style data (up to July 8th 2022) so as to create equivalent run style averages for 2022. From there, I wanted to compare the two averages – my hope being that the 2021 run style averages correlated with their 2022 counterparts.
To qualify, each horse needed to have run at least four times in each season. Of course, many of the horses would have run considerably more times, especially in the full 2021 season. In theory, the more the horses run, the more ‘accurate’ their run style average should be in terms of predicting future run style.
488 horses had enough runs in both seasons so it was a decent number of horses to examine. In order to compare the two averages I decided to create six run style/pace average ranges. I used the following groupings - 3.50 to 4.00, 3.00 to 3.49, 2.50 to 2.99, 2.00 to 2.49, 1.50 to 1.99 and 1.00 to 1.49 - then I assigned a letter to each creating six run style ‘categories’ as follows:
Doing it in this way made sense as I felt it was an easier way to compare the data and hopefully easier for you to understand my finding. To begin with I looked at category ‘A’ horses in 2021, those with run style average 3.50 or above, and compared them with their run style category in 2022. There were 30 category ‘A’ horses from 2021 and these are the categories in which they resided as of 8th July 2022:
As we can see 13 of the 30 horses have repeated their extreme front running style of racing in 2022. Eight others are still at the upper end of the run style bracket (category B) with figures of 3.00 to 3.49. Meanwhile, just one of the 30 has averaged under 2.00 this year (categories E / F) meaning just one horse has totally reversed his/her run style from the previous year.
For all that it would have been great to have seen all 30 horses in category ‘A’ for 2022, these remain very pleasing figures.
At the other end of the scale I wanted to look at the performance of genuine hold up horses from 2021 – those in category ‘F’ (average 1.00 to 1.49) to see how their 2022 run style splits compared:
The results are positive once more, with 19 of the 45 horses again landing in the lowest run style category (F). A further 18 are in category ‘E’, the second lowest grouping. These findings so far are the type of figures I was hoping for, but I had expected them also based on previous research in similar areas.
From here I wanted to look at ALL 2021 run style categories, not just ‘A’ and ‘F’, and make a comparison with 2022. For this I wanted to see what percentage of horses from each 2021 category landed either in the same category or the ‘next door’ category in 2022. To help make sense of what I mean by that sentence (as it is a bit ‘wordy’), my findings are in the following table:
This table shows very clearly that the run style of a high percentage of sprinters does not alter that much. It is fascinating to note that horses which primarily race nearer the back than the front (categories E and F – average 1.00 to 1.99) have very high consistency percentages (87.64 and 82.22 respectively).
It is also worth sharing that almost two-thirds (313 of the 488 horses, 64.1%) have 2021 and 2022 run style averages within 0.50, or half a run style grade, of each other; that's another indication of how useful and accurate run style averages can be.
I want to leave you with the horses whose run style averages from 2021 to 2022 (to date) have a difference of just 0.30 or less. We should be fairly confident that this group of horses have a definite run style preference:
Horse
5-6f 2021
2021 RSA
5-6f 2022
2022 RSA
Diff
Alcazan
4
3.25
4
3.25
0
Bungledupinblue
13
2
4
2
0
Chipstead
6
2.5
4
2.5
0
Equitation
8
2.25
4
2.25
0
Glorious Charmer
10
2
13
2
0
Grandads Best Girl
5
2.4
5
2.4
0
Hope Springs
6
1.5
6
1.5
0
King Of Stars
10
3.8
5
3.8
0
Nellie French
6
1.17
6
1.17
0
Newyorkstateofmind
15
3
6
3
0
Recall The Show
9
2.89
9
2.89
0
Rhubarb
10
2.6
10
2.6
0
Steelriver
9
1
11
1
0
Strike Red
10
1.4
5
1.4
0
Red Walls
18
2.94
14
2.93
0.02
Stone Circle
7
2.14
6
2.17
0.02
Zargun
13
2.69
6
2.67
0.03
Orchid Rose
9
1.78
4
1.75
0.03
Ustath
15
3.53
6
3.5
0.03
Shallow Hal
9
2.33
10
2.3
0.03
Amazing Amaya
8
1.13
11
1.09
0.03
Wentworth Falls
11
1.64
5
1.6
0.04
Enduring
14
3.64
5
3.6
0.04
Endowed
11
1.55
6
1.5
0.05
Qaaraat
37
3.11
13
3.15
0.05
Dapper Man
17
3.35
5
3.4
0.05
Second Collection
14
1.21
6
1.17
0.05
Helvetian
6
2.33
7
2.29
0.05
Mashaan
4
2.75
5
2.8
0.05
Ascot Jungle
9
2.56
4
2.5
0.06
Some Nightmare
9
2.44
4
2.5
0.06
Be Proud
18
1.56
10
1.5
0.06
Buniann
14
1.5
9
1.44
0.06
First Verse
9
1.56
4
1.5
0.06
Jawwaal
9
1.56
4
1.5
0.06
James Watt
14
2.14
5
2.2
0.06
Our Man In Havana
13
2.31
4
2.25
0.06
One Hart
6
2.67
5
2.6
0.07
Ginato
10
1.6
9
1.67
0.07
Tathmeen
17
1.53
13
1.46
0.07
Aberama Gold
11
3.18
8
3.25
0.07
Come On Girl
10
1.5
7
1.43
0.07
Dream Composer
7
1.43
8
1.5
0.07
Al Simmo
7
3.57
4
3.5
0.07
Cuppacoco
7
3.43
4
3.5
0.07
Koropick
14
2.36
7
2.29
0.07
Lord Of The Glen
14
2.07
5
2
0.07
Spring Bloom
7
3.57
4
3.5
0.07
Gullane One
11
3.73
5
3.8
0.07
Gustav Graves
5
2
13
1.92
0.08
Soul Seeker
17
2.59
6
2.67
0.08
Jack Ryan
8
1.25
9
1.33
0.08
Rainbow Mirage
9
1.33
4
1.25
0.08
Thaki
12
1.75
6
1.83
0.08
Gherkin
12
2.58
4
2.5
0.08
Havagomecca
9
2.33
4
2.25
0.08
Lethal Blast
12
3.92
5
4
0.08
The Tron
8
2.25
6
2.17
0.08
Mrs Bagerran
7
3.29
5
3.2
0.09
Muatadel
11
2.09
4
2
0.09
Mutabaahy
22
1.91
9
2
0.09
Twice Adaay
11
1.91
6
2
0.09
Million Reasons
7
1.57
9
1.67
0.1
Under Curfew
10
2.7
5
2.8
0.1
Della Mare
5
3.4
4
3.5
0.1
Elland Road Boy
5
2.4
4
2.5
0.1
Elzaal
10
2.4
8
2.5
0.1
La Roca Del Fuego
10
3.5
5
3.6
0.1
Many A Star
5
2.4
6
2.5
0.1
Peachey Carnehan
10
1.9
6
2
0.1
Shamshon
20
2
10
2.1
0.1
Venturous
13
1.23
6
1.33
0.1
Rathbone
11
2.18
7
2.29
0.1
Swell Song
7
3.14
4
3.25
0.11
Dark Side Prince
11
3.09
5
3.2
0.11
Swiss Pride
9
2.22
9
2.11
0.11
Tenaya Canyon
9
1.89
5
2
0.11
Youllovemewheniwin
9
2.22
6
2.33
0.11
Absolute Dream
8
2.13
4
2
0.13
Aish
8
3.13
7
3
0.13
Amnaa
8
2.63
4
2.75
0.13
Chairmanoftheboard
8
1.63
4
1.75
0.13
Makanah
8
1.63
4
1.75
0.13
Point Of Woods
8
1.38
4
1.5
0.13
Prospect
4
2.75
8
2.88
0.13
Singe Anglais
8
1.13
6
1
0.13
Sound Of Iona
16
1.88
6
2
0.13
Triggered
9
1.56
7
1.43
0.13
The Gloaming
14
1.93
10
1.8
0.13
Jordan Electrics
11
2.73
7
2.86
0.13
Boogie Time
9
3.67
5
3.8
0.13
Edessann
10
1.2
6
1.33
0.13
Kapono
9
1.33
5
1.2
0.13
Look Out Louis
6
3.33
5
3.2
0.13
Mansfield
18
2.67
10
2.8
0.13
The Thin Blue Line
10
2.3
12
2.17
0.13
Wade's Magic
15
2.47
5
2.6
0.13
Count D'orsay
15
1.53
5
1.4
0.13
Bergerac
7
3.14
7
3
0.14
Copper Knight
14
3.14
6
3
0.14
Ey Up It's Maggie
10
3
7
2.86
0.14
Lothian
7
2.86
7
2.71
0.14
Miss Nay Never
4
3
7
2.86
0.14
Whittle Le Woods
5
3
7
2.86
0.14
Twilight Heir
4
2.75
5
2.6
0.15
Freedom Flyer
11
2.18
6
2.33
0.15
Silent Flame
9
2.56
5
2.4
0.16
We're Reunited
14
3.36
5
3.2
0.16
Miss Bella Brand
11
1.91
4
1.75
0.16
Lethal Angel
11
2.36
5
2.2
0.16
Mid Winster
11
3.36
5
3.2
0.16
Blazing Hot
10
2.5
9
2.67
0.17
Bossipop
18
3.17
6
3
0.17
Company Minx
12
2.67
4
2.5
0.17
Penombre
5
2
6
2.17
0.17
Burrows Seeside
6
1.5
6
1.33
0.17
Glamorous Force
18
1.83
8
2
0.17
Moveonup
9
2.44
13
2.62
0.17
Igotatext
5
2.4
7
2.57
0.17
Internationaldream
7
2.57
4
2.75
0.18
Scale Force
14
2.43
12
2.25
0.18
Ventura Express
11
2.18
4
2
0.18
Dark Shot
23
2.78
10
2.6
0.18
High Security
13
2.38
7
2.57
0.19
Sparkling Diamond
6
1.33
7
1.14
0.19
John Kirkup
8
2.38
7
2.57
0.2
Redrosezorro
5
2.6
5
2.8
0.2
Diamond Cottage
7
2
5
1.8
0.2
Lost My Sock
15
1.87
6
1.67
0.2
Seneca Chief
10
1.8
5
1.6
0.2
Abate
12
3
5
2.8
0.2
Airshow
10
3.7
12
3.5
0.2
Apollo One
5
3.2
5
3
0.2
Dave Dexter
4
3
5
2.8
0.2
Khulu
4
2
5
2.2
0.2
Rhythm
5
2.8
5
3
0.2
Rolfe Rembrandt
4
2
5
2.2
0.2
Silver Diva
10
2.2
8
2
0.2
Storm Over
10
2.7
4
2.5
0.2
Ubahha
8
1.75
11
1.55
0.2
Phoenix Star
17
1.76
9
1.56
0.21
Eeh Bah Gum
10
3.1
9
2.89
0.21
Good Listener
4
1.5
7
1.29
0.21
Nacho
14
1.79
8
2
0.21
Expert Opinion
18
2.5
7
2.29
0.21
Tanasoq
16
1.44
9
1.22
0.22
Lihou
19
2.84
8
2.63
0.22
Hurricane Alert
18
2.28
8
2.5
0.22
Rory
10
1.6
8
1.38
0.23
Storm Melody
21
2.48
8
2.25
0.23
Nomadic Empire
11
2.27
4
2.5
0.23
Mokaman
6
3
13
2.77
0.23
Pivoting
7
2.57
6
2.33
0.24
Yukon Mission
11
2.91
6
2.67
0.24
Global Warning
9
1.56
5
1.8
0.24
Abduction
4
1.5
4
1.75
0.25
Atyaaf
12
3.25
4
3
0.25
Ballintoy Harbour
8
3
4
2.75
0.25
Blissful Song
10
2
4
2.25
0.25
Chocco Star
6
1
4
1.25
0.25
Cottam Lane
8
3
4
2.75
0.25
Dakota Gold
6
3.5
4
3.25
0.25
Due A Win
7
2
4
2.25
0.25
Iesha
12
2.75
10
2.5
0.25
Isle Of Lismore
8
2
4
1.75
0.25
Lady Nectar
6
1.5
4
1.25
0.25
Mohareb
4
2.25
7
2
0.25
Papas Girl
8
1.38
8
1.13
0.25
Prince Of Abington
8
1.75
5
2
0.25
So Grateful
8
3.5
4
3.25
0.25
Surewecan
6
1.5
4
1.25
0.25
Pettochside
11
2.45
5
2.2
0.25
Hey Ho Let's Go
9
2.67
13
2.92
0.26
Count Otto
5
2.6
7
2.86
0.26
Sir Gregory
6
2.17
11
1.91
0.26
Primo's Comet
11
1.45
7
1.71
0.26
Fine Wine
6
3.17
14
3.43
0.26
Mondammej
17
1.24
8
1.5
0.26
Brandy Station
15
3.07
6
3.33
0.27
Cool Spirit
13
3
15
2.73
0.27
Griggy
5
2.6
6
2.33
0.27
Show Me A Sunset
15
2.27
5
2
0.27
Toussarok
5
3.6
6
3.33
0.27
Rebel Redemption
17
3.35
8
3.63
0.27
Temple Bruer
11
1.73
4
2
0.27
Stallone
8
1.88
5
1.6
0.28
Mister Bluebird
9
2.78
4
2.5
0.28
Gowanlad
9
2.11
6
1.83
0.28
Good Earth
17
1.47
12
1.75
0.28
Portelet Bay
12
2.58
10
2.3
0.28
Refuge
12
2.92
5
3.2
0.28
Excessable
13
2
7
2.29
0.29
May Remain
7
1.71
6
2
0.29
Thegreyvtrain
24
3.58
8
3.88
0.29
Ghathanfar
13
2.54
12
2.83
0.29
Liberty Bay
10
3.3
6
3
0.3
Stroxx
5
2.6
10
2.9
0.3
Classy Al
4
1.5
5
1.8
0.3
Polam Lane
6
1.5
5
1.8
0.3
Strong Power
11
2
10
1.7
0.3
There are 201 horses in this list and I am confident they will show a similar running style for the rest of this season. When one of more of these horses contest a five- or six-furlong sprint, the easier it should be to predict how the early run style/pace is going to look. Whilst I have only applied these run style comparisons to 5-6f races, the concept could be easily expanded to horses that race primarily in other distance groups, too.
Good luck.
- DR
00Dave Renhamhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngDave Renham2022-07-11 14:08:572022-07-11 14:26:48Past Run Style as a Profitable Indicator, Part 2
For a few years now I’ve had a constant companion on my bedside table, writes Tony Stafford. Horse Trader, published in the early 1990’s and written by Patrick Robinson with Nick Robinson, tells the story of Robert Sangster’s unlikely path to the pinnacle of international racing and breeding.
I’ve read it cover to cover at least six times and when I tell you it must be the best part of 250,000 words (at least three times as long as my sporadic offerings over the years) that’s plenty of reading material.
Nick Robinson, like the young Sangster, prospective heir to serious money, back in the late 1960’s had knowledge of racing through family connections. Over time in a Liverpool coffee house then favoured by the sons of leaders of Northern industry, he imbued his friend, the heir to the Vernon’s Football Pools fortune, with a similar love of the sport.
Without Nick Robinson there would have been no Sadler’s Wells, no Golden Fleece, no Galileo. None of the many champions of the past 40 years to have emanated from Ballydoyle and its adjunct Coolmore stud in its two distinct phases. The first, which goes to the end of the book in 1992, is basically pre-Arab domination.
Then there is the second period where the skill and enterprise from Vincent O’Brien’s successor, the not related Aidan, linked always by the constant of John Magnier, Vincent’s son-in-law. Magnier of course was the man who recruited the young O’Brien to succeed Vincent as well as embracing Michael Tabor and later Derrick Smith to the party in place of such as Sangster and Danny Schwartz as well as others who dipped in and out, like Stavros Niarchos.
At one time the owner himself of more than 1,000 horses worldwide and at the time of the book’s conclusion, owner of shares in all the best Coolmore stallions, Sangster’s destiny seemed secure. His six children, sons Ben, Guy and Adam and daughter Kate from his first marriage, and Sam and yet to be born Max from his third, could anticipate a never-ending stream of wonderful thoroughbreds in the family ownership.
But, as Sam said when I suggested it to him one day last year: “As if!” Recently though, the wider family fortunes on the racecourse have shone, particularly with Saffron Beach, the four-year-old filly trained by their Australian-born step-sister Jane Chapple-Hyam, daughter of Sangster’s middle wife, Susan mark 1. Winner of the Group 2 Duke Of Cambridge Stakes at the Royal meeting last month, Saffron Beach is owned by Ben’s wife Lucy, James Wigan, and Ben and Lucy’s son, Olly.
The success of the Sangster, O’Brien, Magnier formula only came to its conclusion as the competition from the Arabs strangled the team’s buying power in Kentucky. For more than a decade their team of unrivalled experts had monopolised the best-bred and best-conformed individuals almost to the extent of “what we want we get!”
In some of the latter years, that buying power had greatly eroded and people like Schwartz, who was accustomed to put up his few million dollars every July (as it then was) and sit back and wait for the Classic and Group/Grade 1 wins to roll in and the stallions to roll off the production line, could no longer rely on that certitude.
Classic Thoroughbreds was the would-be replacement scheme whereby Vincent thought the Irish racing fan would take the opportunity to buy into his proven “buy and win the biggest races” formula. It needed, though, many thousands of small shareholders rather than a few major players taking serious financial positions to work.
It did initially succeed, to the extent that Royal Academy, the yearling O’Brien coveted above all those of the 1988 Kentucky yearling crop, won the July Cup and then later memorably the Breeders’ Cup Mile. Ridden by Lester Piggott on that never-to-be-forgotten day at Belmont Park in October 1990, only weeks after Piggott’s release from his prison term, he came past the whole field to win under his 54-year-old jockey. But it was unsustainable.
Meanwhile, Sangster had bought Manton, the historic Wiltshire training estate, spending lavishly under Michael Dickinson’s brief stewardship. The first year’s meagre return of four wins inevitably ended the Dickinson era and as MW went on to win major races in the US, Sangster battled on. Barry Hills had a successful stint there but when Barry moved on to open a public stable in Lambourn, his assistant Peter Chapple-Hyam took over, making an instant impact.
Dr Devious had been a hard-working two-year-old, winning even before Royal Ascot, where he finished runner-up to Dilum, before his Superlative and Dewhurst Stakes successes. Sold to Jenny Craig and husband Sidney, he was bought principally to run in the Kentucky Derby and after a prep race second in Newmarket he shipped to Kentucky but he could finish only seventh to Lil E.Tee.
In such circumstances he was in some ways a surprise Derby winner, returning after such a short time, his toughness enabling him to beat St Jovite by two lengths. St Jovite got full revenge in the Irish Derby, but the Doctor gained a second narrow win over his rival in the Irish Champion Stakes for Jim Bolger and owner Virginia Kraft Payson that September.
Earlier that year, 1992, Rodrigo De Triano had given Lester his final English Classic win in the 2000 Guineas, adding to it at The Curragh with the Irish equivalent a fortnight later. He did take his chance in the Derby under Piggott and actually started the 13-2 favourite, but could finish only ninth of 18. Returned to shorter trips, further success came in the Juddmonte at York and in the Champion Stakes. He was sold as a stallion to Japan.
Chapple-Hyam was still at the helm when Commander Collins won the 1999 Superlative Stakes and Racing Post Trophy in front of young Sam Sangster, but then the rift came. John Gosden took over as the Millennium turned with Jimmy Fortune as his stable jockey. After Robert’s death in 2004 his older boys kept the show going with Brian Meehan as their trainer.
Success was never far away and Meehan, previously assistant to Richard Hannon, always had a sure hand with young horses and also developed many high-class fillies. Over the years he has won big races all around the world - one of his Breeders’ Cup successes came with a first-crop son of Galileo, the three-year-old Red Rocks who won the Turf race in 2006.
In later years the Sangsters sold Manton, although Ben still lives in Manton House and has also moved the mares and young stock of the family’s Swettenham Stud to land close to the house. Martyn Meade, now training in conjunction with son Freddie in another part of the 2,000-acre estate, is its owner.
When I started this piece, I used Horse Trader simply because of an encounter at Newmarket on Saturday afternoon after Isaac Shelby, trained by Brian Meehan, won the Group 2 Superlative Stakes. The colt is owned by Manton Thoroughbreds, a syndicate set up by Sam Sangster, who buys all the stock, usually as yearlings.
Earlier in the meeting, before Isaac Shelby ran a brave race to remain unbeaten after a drawn-out battle with 5-4 favourite Victory Dance, another Sangster yearling buy, Show Respect, was an excellent second in the Group 2 July Stakes. He is also trained by Meehan.
I’ve had the privilege of visiting Manton many times, and as I go through Marlborough and along the half-mile-plus long drive down to the Meehan stable area, the excitement never fails. It was there that I saw the gallop when Derby favourite Crown Prince flopped many lengths behind Delegator. I backed the latter at 33’s that morning, forgetting to add the words “each-way”. Sea The Stars had the temerity to beat him!
Sam and Brian, along with Brian’s wife Jax, were suitably thrilled on Saturday when all the chat, much of it fuelled by an on-the-ball Matt Chapman, was about the last winners of the Superlative Stakes to win in those colours – Sam has secured the use of his dad’s green, blue and white for Manton Thoroughbreds – to much approval on Saturday.
Everyone remembered Derby winner Dr Devious – sold by Robert to Jenny Craig, the California diet magnate, before his Classic win – but Sam also recalled Commander Collins. “I came that day with dad and I think I was ten or maybe eleven.”
Incidentally, Commander Collins was named after one of Robert’s great friends, Old Etonian trainer AK “Tony” Collins, who found fame or rather infamy for his role in the Gay Future affair, when some of the horses linked in multiple bets rather mysteriously did not manage to leave their stables on that Bank Holiday. The one that did, Gay Future, won and with bookmakers prevented from laying off commitments when the phones went down, it caused a furore in those innocent days. You couldn’t cause a whole telephone exchange to be out of commission nowadays – or could you?
Well A K spent Friday afternoon in the owners’ restaurant at Newmarket in the company of another grand old stager, former trainer Bill Watts. From a famous Newmarket training family, Bill left to go north to Richmond, Yorkshire, from where he sent Teleprompter and Tony Ives to Chicago to win the Arlington Million in 1985. Watts has moved back to Newmarket since retiring from training.
I managed a quiet word with Sam when the excitement died down a little later and said: “I always told you that you were the most like your father,” a suggestion that always brings its share of embarrassment for him. But he did say: “You know Horse Trader? Dad is wearing a tie on the front, and I’ve had it in my possession for years, but am wearing it today for the first time,” pointing to the rather old-fashioned neckpiece.
Trying to find potential Classic and Group-race winners in face of such incredible competition is getting ever harder and to secure the Night Of Thunder colt Isaac Shelby, Sam had to stretch to 92,000gns, one of his more expensive buys. The Godolphin-owned runner-up, by Dubawi, and trained by Charlie Appleby cost £700k. In this market, that colt will be regarded by connections as being right on track and showing terrific potential, so Isaac looks very well bought.
For me, the best part of the Sangster/Meehan operation is their mutual trust and loyalty. Brian has had some quieter years from the heyday when he had more than 100 horses in his team but, like most longer-established trainers, he finds it harder to get new owners and therefore new blood.
Sam, still in his early 30’s, does though have access to younger businesspeople who find enjoyment in the syndicated horses he unearths and buys. Meehan, as with Isaac Shelby, does the rest. If that ends up with a Group 1 success, which looks eminently possible about this still unfurnished and to the shrewd John Egan’s eyes, “still up-behind” colt, that could easily be the eventual outcome.
My name is David Massey and, after meeting Matt at Ascot recently, I'm delighted to be bringing you the odd tale from my travels around the country. As many of you know, as well as doing some writing with my old sparring partner Mr Delargy, I also enjoy my time working for a few of the books on-course in the summer. It's essentially the nearest thing I get to exercise these days, and if you think that's stretching a point, I invite you to try and hump a load of bookmaking kit from Car Park 6 to the Queen Anne Enclosure at Royal Ascot as the mercury hits 25 at nine in the morning. It works a couple of bacon sandwiches off, I'm pretty sure.
Thank the Lord I was working in the shade of the stands all week, though, as those in the Windsor Enclosure cooked like lobsters for the latter part of the meeting. I do not work well in sunshine, as a recent dose of sunstroke at Epsom on Oaks Day will testify (threw up on return to the hotel at 6pm, passed out on the bed, woke four hours later to a text asking if I wanted anything bringing back from Nando's - I can tell you now that eating peri-peri chicken at that point made as much appeal as getting out of the car park at Worcester) and so to be front row in the Queen Anne Enclosure for the week was a real joy.
I'm not really here to tell you about all the bets we take week to week, more the stories and the people I meet along the way. That said, I will point out the more interesting/strange bets we’ve taken, and that starts right here, right now, with the Queen Anne.
There weren't any money-buyers around willing to take the 1-6 Baaeed but there were plenty of ladies wanting a fiver each-way on him. Now, as a frontman, it is not my job to advise, merely to smile, be polite and take the money, so I do not put anyone off their bets. We take six such wagers, all of whom are delighted to collect their one pound and four pence profit afterwards.
Business is steady rather than spectacular. We've one bloke betting rags, he picks up a decent chunk from his £20 each-way on Acklam Express at 150-1 in the Kings Stand, and immediately has fifty each-way of it back on Lusail in the St James's Palace, falling just a head away from the jackpot. Suffice to say, he's having a good day.
I'm working for the S&D firm all week, with Rob the boss and Jason running the book. Rob is on the rail with his partner Vanessa, and business there is about a third of what we are doing. Not even Rob's top hat and tails can pull the crowds in. The rest of Tuesday passes by without a whimper, business overall about half of what it ought to be.
We're staying in Windsor all week, with Rob renting a house for us, but we've come across the first problem. Jason and I are sharing a room for the first two days (Jason is then off to Newmarket to run the book there) but the room is snug, to say the least, and there's no way we can fit the second bed in without falling over each other. It's decided the best thing to do is for Jason to book himself in at Heathrow Premier Inn whilst he's down here, and I get the room to myself. That sounds terrific, but as Jason points out, he now gets a ready-made cooked breakfast every morning, whereas I've got cereal to look forward to. I'm not sure who's getting the best end of this deal, to be honest.
What I can tell you is the new black shoes I’ve bought for the week have made my heel bleed, so they get sacked off, and I return to my battered, but comfy, brown ones for the rest of the meeting. I really ought to have bedded them in. Let this be a lesson, kids.
Wednesday sees us betting in the same position as Tuesday, which I'm also grateful for, and it's a noticeably younger crowd. That means asking for quite a few IDs (they all have them, I'm delighted to say) and it also means a few lads, with a fair bit of ale down them in hot weather, milling around in front of us. They've all got massive cigars. Some of them are even lit. They move off and stand in front of the joint next to us, good news for us but bad news for Richard, running the Liles Bet pitch. We have a chat and decide it's going to kick off at some point, and I reckon it'll be after race five. It turns out I'm better at predicting fight times than I am at what's going to win on the day, as the oh-so-predictable scrap takes place after the Hunt Cup. The one security lady in the ring watches on, wisely not getting involved.
Business is again well down, about 40% on pre-Covid levels. We've two ladies betting with us that are very pleasant but haven't a clue what to back. Liam (my co-worker) and I give the best advice we can, and we somehow manage to fathom a winner or two for them. One of them has some fancy cocktail to drink, which has the colour and consistency of cough medicine. I ask her how much it set her back, only to find the answer is "nothing" as she's got hospitality this afternoon and work are paying! I ask if she could possibly bring Liam and me a cold drink down, as it's really warm. When she comes back with two pints for us five minutes later, they are greeted with a cheer as if the Queen herself has had a winner.
Thursday sees us betting next to Rob Waterhouse, the, ahem, colourful Aussie bookmaker. They're all in top hats, I'm in a pink shirt. Couldn't look more different if we tried. Ironically, the friendliest punter we have all day is an Aussie, who we know as Peter, as he's a friend of Liam and myself now. I ask him why he's not betting with his fellow countryman, and the reply I get is not suitable for a family column. If I left the expletives out, he said nothing at all. In fact, he makes his opinions loudly known, and I suspect that may well be for the benefit of next door as much as us.
Pete's an absolute gem, full of stories from around the world, where he's been racing, who he's met, the whole time littering his stories with ribald jokes, and he has us in stitches. This is what I love about this job: meeting new people, making new friends. You don't do that sitting in an office. He's here with an Aussie racing tour, and although he'll miss Friday, he tells us he will be back Saturday - in the Royal Enclosure. We look forward to his return in top hat and tails. More so than he does, actually.
There's two women betting with us, sisters from Hertfordshire, they tell us. One likes me (“aren’t you polite?”) so much after a few cocktails (and winners) that I get a marriage proposal. This is both lovely and unexpected, but I tell her I have to work tomorrow.
As it is with Baaeed, so it is with the long odds-on Reach For The Moon, as the ladies all come with their fiver each-ways for Frankie. I sometimes think Frankie could ride something called Neddy, fresh off the lunchtime shift from Blackpool beach at Ascot, and we’d still take money for him. This time, the ladies knew, as Frankie can only finish second, and the each-way backers have the last laugh.
We eat in a pub in nearby Datchet that night, but it's clear all is not well with Rob, who is complaining he's feeling poorly. He pushes his pie around with a fork for five minutes before announcing he's not hungry. This is almost unprecedented. Rob likes his food like, well, I like my food, so to see him leave a near-full plate is a rare sight. We quickly work out from his symptoms that he's also now got sunstroke. Back to the digs, get some water down him, and he's asleep within five minutes. Next morning he's up at half five, counting the money. He's clearly feeling better.
Friday. The temperature is rising, and so is business. It's clear within ten minutes of setting up that it's going to be a lot busier. Rob is now in charge of the book, with Jason off to Newmarket. The only consistent thing about Rob is his inconsistency. As Jason says before he leaves for Newmarket, "we're either going to break level on the week, or win thirty grand." I think that sums Rob up beautifully.
It is typical that, on what turns out to be our busiest day, the results go completely against us. The punters are smashing us to bits. After Inspiral wins the Coronation, I run out of money, and have to go and get another float. Surely we can get a result in the Sandringham? We cannot, and Heredia is another disaster. One guy, who started the day having £40 on the first winner, has kept playing it up and is drawing £700 here. £500 goes straight back on Changingoftheguard. Grand Alliance has him beat all ways up before he decides to go for a wander late on. It's a bloodbath. They're carrying some of the bookmakers out on stretchers. The first four bets for the last come in, and all four are on Latin Lover. I tell Liam to shorten the price. It makes no difference. I cannot get them off it, no matter how much we take and keep shortening it. The payout queue is long, very long. Not as long as it is at Waterhouse's though. "Is this the queue for the boat rides?" shouts one wag as he walks past.
We eat at the house that night, having ordered Dominos. Rob wolfs his down, clearly back on form, retires to the sofa, and starts watching poker videos (he plays, and very well, I’m told) on his phone. Vanessa looks at me. “Ten minutes” she says, and she’s wrong by around two minutes, as it takes just eight of them for Rob to fall asleep.
Finally, we reach Saturday. As things stand. we've got the expenses for the week and have today to make a profit. We're all absolutely knackered by this point, this week really does take it out of you, and you have to have one last push to get you over the line. Thankfully, it's a bit cooler today - indeed, there's a shower or two around in the morning, which is very welcome - and believe me, that really does help you when you're on your last legs.
After meeting an old friend in Lisa, who I used to work with back in Skegness during my Our Price days (yes, that far back) we get betting around 1pm. Again, this feels busier. It's been a week of two halves, the latter much more like pre-Covid times than the former.
"How are you pair of bloody degenerates doing?" Pete's back, in his best, and he tells us he's in a box with Gai Waterhouse, Rob’s wife. He's got the photos to prove it, too. "She's a lot nicer than he is." He has a bet, a fiver each-way Rohaan in the Wokingham. Not only a lovely bloke, but a decent bloke, is Peter. He picks up and says his final goodbyes. A genuinely sad moment, we've enjoyed his company.
And then, after a week of warm, sunny weather, comes the rain. It's absolutely ferocious. None of us were prepared for this, and none of us have a coat. Heather, Liam's girlfriend, is working with us and she has just her summer dress on. Liam, the git, refuses to give his jacket up for her and it's left to me to do the chivalrous thing. At least I have a long-sleeved shirt on, but it's not helping. The wind has whipped up and it's like working at Newmarket on Cesarewitch day. I'm absolutely soaked by the time the Ascot Ces, the Queen Alexandra, comes around. Someone has £200 ew Reshoun at 20s with me and with half a furlong to go, I'm thinking I might need to go and fetch some money. But no, here's Buick and Stratum to save the day.
The only good thing is, the rain abates just in time to pack up. We all get paid for the week - the Saturday results have been good, and I rather liked Naval Crown anyway, so Rob kept that for himself - and there are top-ups for all. We say our goodbyes, knowing that we'll all meet again at Southwell on Monday.
- DM
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/bettingring_goodwood.jpg319830David Masseyhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngDavid Massey2022-07-07 07:39:092022-07-07 07:47:46Roving Reports: Royal Ascot
In this article, I continue to look into run style and its impact on the outcome of horse races, writes Dave Renham. This piece focuses on the run style profile of individual horses and initially examines data from 2021, before comparing with results from the first part of the 2022 flat season, up to June 24th.
Before divulging my findings, for new readers I will briefly discuss what is meant by run style. Essentially, run style is the position a horse takes up very early on in the race. These are split into four categories as follows:
Led (4) – front runners; horses or horses that take an early lead; Prominent (3) – horses that track the pace close behind the leader(s); Mid Division (2) – horses that race mid pack; Held Up (1) – horses that race at, or near the back of the field early.
The number in brackets is the run style score that is assigned to each section. These numbers can be a useful tool for number crunchers like myself and they will be used at certain points in this article.
If we look at any Geegeez racecard and click on the pace ‘tab’ we get some past run style data for the race in question. Here is an example from April of this year – a 5f handicap at Windsor:
As can be seen, the run style figures from each horse's previous four races are shown (LR, 2LR, 3LR, 4LR). These figures are quite tight / close and hence it is difficult to be confident about predicting the order in which the field is likely to order itself early in the race.
The most important run style prediction is always which horse is most likely to front run and that is tricky here too. La Roca Del Fuego topped the list, just, on 14 points, so was marginally the most likely front runner, and as it turned out did lead from start to finish.
However, pre-race, one could not have been confident that La Roca Del Fuego was going to lead. In an ideal world when trying to predict the front runner, we would prefer a horse to be well ahead numerically of the rest of its field. For example, Horse A has 16 points (the maximum possible for a four-race sample), and Horses B, C, D, etc all have scores in single figures. Even then we cannot guarantee Horse A will lead but all things being considered, the chances are very likely he/she will.
Some less regular readers at this point may be asking themselves why trying to predict the front runner is a useful thing to try to do. The answer is simple: front runners are the best value at most distances on the flat; and many distances over the sticks, too. For example, in 5f handicaps in the UK from 1st Jan 2018 to 31st Dec 2020, if you had predicted who would front run pre-race and place a £1 bet on every single horse you would have won nearly 20% of all your bets for an impressive profit of £619.46 (ROI +32.7%).
Now to the article proper as it were:
My focus today is on UK handicaps of 5 furlongs to 1 mile; I am using these races as there is a strong front running bias in general at shorter distances. The bias is strongest over 5f (see example above), but it is still potent up to a mile on most courses. My initial dataset looked at all such races in 2021.
To start with I focused on all horses that had raced at least 4 times in 5f - 1 mile handicaps in 2021. From there I wanted to check a few different things.
Horse run style averages (UK turf flat handicaps, 5f-1m, 2021)
First stop was producing run style averages for each horse: this was performed in exactly the same way that I have created trainer, jockey and course run style averages in the past. I simply added up the Geegeez pace / run style points for a particular horse over the 2021 season and divided it by the number of races. The higher the average the more prominent the horse tends to race. The averages ranged from 4.00 (horses that led in every race they contested in 2021) to 1.00 (horses that were held up in every race they contested in 2021). Just 12 horses had run style averages of 4.00, which will come as no surprise as I was looking at ALL their runs in these handicaps over the year.
There was a horse that raced 37 times in 2021 – yes, 37! The horse in question was Qaaraat. Qaaraat had a run style average for the year of 3.11 thanks to leading 11 times, racing prominently 21 times, mid-division three times, and being held up just twice.
Here is a selection of horses with their run style averages for 2021. I have chosen those with some of the highest run style averages, and those with some of the lowest – the number of races they contested in also shown:
Horse
2021 races
2021 run style average
Horse
2021 races
2021 run style average
How Bizarre
5
4.00
Diffident Spirit
4
1.25
Isla Kai
4
4.00
Elmejor
4
1.25
Master Matt
4
4.00
Hope Springs
4
1.25
Pinnata
6
4.00
James Park Woods
4
1.25
Tomouh
5
4.00
London Palladium
8
1.25
Ventura Rascal
7
4.00
Maysong
8
1.25
Lethal Blast
12
3.92
Munificent
4
1.25
Motawaazy
11
3.91
Natchez Trace
4
1.25
Asad
8
3.88
Nick Vedder
12
1.25
Rains Of Castamere
7
3.86
Otto Oyl
4
1.25
Grandfather Tom
6
3.83
Pentimento
4
1.25
La Roca Del Fuego
6
3.83
Rectory Road
12
1.25
Show Yourself
6
3.83
Rooful
4
1.25
Destroyer
5
3.80
Mondammej
17
1.24
Eye Of The Water
5
3.80
Eyes
13
1.23
King Of Stars
10
3.80
Treacherous
13
1.23
Mejthaam
5
3.80
Imperium Blue
9
1.22
Siam Fox
5
3.80
Mutanaaseq
14
1.21
Toussarok
14
3.79
Second Collection
14
1.21
Araifjan
13
3.77
Aiguillette
5
1.20
Twilight Madness
4
3.75
Amazing Amaya
5
1.20
Kraka
15
3.73
Cairn Gorm
5
1.20
Gullane One
11
3.73
Celsius
5
1.20
Ornate
11
3.73
Edessann
10
1.20
Howzak
7
3.71
Engles Rock
5
1.20
Just Glamorous
7
3.71
Our Little Pony
5
1.20
Zulu Girl
7
3.71
Power On
10
1.20
Airshow
10
3.70
Snazzy Jazzy
5
1.20
Fangorn
10
3.70
Urban Highway
5
1.20
Thaayer
10
3.70
Jewel Maker
11
1.18
Harrogate
16
3.69
Lady Alavesa
11
1.18
Al Simmo
6
3.67
Air To Air
6
1.17
Alcazan
9
3.67
Billian
6
1.17
Autumn Flight
12
3.67
Fantasy Believer
6
1.17
Boogie Time
9
3.67
La Rav
6
1.17
Enduring
15
3.67
Power Player
6
1.17
Global Esteem
11
3.64
True Mason
12
1.17
Gometra Ginty
11
3.64
Duke Of Firenze
19
1.16
Antagonize
8
3.63
The Cola Kid
13
1.15
Bankawi
8
3.63
Fauvette
7
1.14
Blackcurrent
8
3.63
Magnetised
7
1.14
Charming Kid
8
3.63
Papas Girl
7
1.14
Just Frank
8
3.63
Surprise Picture
7
1.14
Air Raid
5
3.60
Alba Del Sole
8
1.13
Alba De Tormes
5
3.60
Clashaniska
8
1.13
Animal Instinct
5
3.60
Desert Land
16
1.13
Forest Falcon
5
3.60
Otago
8
1.13
Hieronymus
5
3.60
Canoodled
9
1.11
Langholm
10
3.60
Bronze River
10
1.10
Wings Of A Dove
5
3.60
Libby Ami
11
1.09
Bowman
12
3.58
Venturous
11
1.09
Thegreyvtrain
24
3.58
De Vegas Kid
12
1.08
Gobi Sunset
7
3.57
Golden Apollo
12
1.08
Healing Power
7
3.57
Van Dijk
14
1.07
Spring Bloom
7
3.57
Alicestar
6
1.00
Bezzas Lad
9
3.56
Biplane
4
1.00
Mountain Brave
9
3.56
Catch My Breath
14
1.00
Militia
11
3.55
Chocco Star
6
1.00
Goddess Of Fire
13
3.54
Divine Messenger
6
1.00
Late Arrival
15
3.53
Dundory
4
1.00
Ustath
17
3.53
Eligible
6
1.00
Bert Kibbler
6
3.50
Fastnet Crown
6
1.00
Big Bard
4
3.50
Inaam
7
1.00
Captain Corcoran
10
3.50
Marselan
7
1.00
Della Mare
4
3.50
Mayson Mount
5
1.00
Firepower
6
3.50
Nellie French
4
1.00
Louie de Palma
6
3.50
Raatea
7
1.00
Marnie James
8
3.50
Sanaadh
13
1.00
Modular Magic
6
3.50
Sin E Shekells
5
1.00
Punchbowl Flyer
8
3.50
Steelriver
5
1.00
Rhubarb Bikini
6
3.50
Stone Of Destiny
6
1.00
Secret Handsheikh
10
3.50
Sunset
5
1.00
Sir Titan
6
3.50
Tangled
9
1.00
Wrenthorpe
6
3.50
Wicklow Warrior
4
1.00
To be honest, I wasn’t sure how relevant looking at run style averages from a longer period of time (rather than the four most recent races) would be; but I use longer term data for trainers and jockeys so felt there was some logic to justify analysing it.
Now I had the run style averages for 2021 for each horse, I grouped them as follows:
1.49 or below
1.50 to 1.99
2.00 to 2.29
2.30 to 2.59
2.60 to 2.99
3.00 to 3.49
3.50 to 4.00
From there I looked at the performance of each of the groups in terms of 2021 results. Here is what I found – I looked at strike rates first:
As the graph neatly shows, horses with higher run style averages based on the 2021 season were more successful in terms of strike rate. Horses that had an average of at least 3.5 for 2021 scored nearly 20% of the time. If we now do a comparison of return on investment (ROI%) we can see a clear correlation:
I used a line graph here as it is slightly easier to see than if using a bar chart. There was a huge return on investment for horses with an average of 3.5 or more – more than 40p in the £.
Horse Led Percentages (UK turf flat handicaps, 5f-1m, 2021)
I did the same type of analysis but using 'led percentages' rather than run style averages. In order words, I worked out in what percentage of races each horse led early during 2021. For instance, if a horse ran ten times and it led early in four of these, its figure would be 40%. As with run style averages, I grouped the led percentages to ensure acceptably sized datasets:
The chart shows a very similar pattern to what we saw with run style averages: this time, horses that led the most in percentage terms were the most successful.
Here are the figures in terms of return on investment:
Again, there is excellent correlation with both graphs; in fact all four graphs correlate strongly. Horses that led in 50% or more of their races in 2021 were extremely profitable – a return of £1.28 for every £1 bet. It should also be noted that these returns are based on starting prices, so with early prices, BOG or Betfair SP one would expect to improve markedly on this baseline figure.
Let's stop using history to predict the past...
Now statisticians will tell you, quite rightly, that using past data from one particular year in this way is going to produce slightly skewed results. This is because we are looking retrospectively at horse performances; we know horses that lead early win more and so looking at horses that led the most often in 2021 should produce the kind of positive results we have seen.
However, there are two points I’d like to make. Firstly, these data prove the point once more about how important early speed is, and secondly it shows that creating horse run style averages seems to be a worthwhile project. Indeed, the run style averages actually outperformed the led percentages, at least at the business end of their respective spectrums (the highest run style averages versus the highest led %’s).
At this point in my research I decided to use the 2021 run style averages I had created and apply them to races in 2022 – up to June 24th. Of course, these run style averages are based on the previous year with no new runs in 2022 taken into account. However, I was hoping to demonstrate that the higher run style averages would still outperform the lower ones. This is what I found.
The strike rates are much more even as you might expect, but still there is a positive edge when we get to a run style average of 3 or more. Conversely, the two lowest strike rates also occur for the two lowest run style groups. The best part, naturally, is seeing the profit/loss figures – profits for those averaging 3 to 3.49 and 3.5 to 4; and the commensurate losses for horses averaging 2.59 or lower are quite steep when viewed as a group.
As we have done to this point, let us again overlay the 2021 led percentages on the 2022 results hoping for a similarly upbeat picture:
It is gratifying to see similar results here. Specifically, horses that led 20% or more in 2021 have outperformed lower 'led percentage' groups both in strike rate terms and in returns on investment. Meanwhile, a 2021 'led percentage' of 33.3% to 49% produced a small profit from 2022 runs, with considerably bigger profits generated by the 50% or more group.
Closing thoughts
The main takeaway from this research into 5f to 1mile handicaps is that horses which led more often (in percentage terms) over a recent period of time are more likely to be profitable to follow than horses which have led less frequently. The same can be said for horses with higher run style averages.
The million dollar question, however, is how many races should we use? The four currently published in the 'pace' tab on the Geegeez racecard is a great starting point. We know from earlier research that horses which led at least once very recently are more likely to lead early than horses that have not. Likewise a last-four-race run style average is useful too (also shown in the 'pace' tab under the column ‘Ave’). The higher the average, again, the more likely it is that a horse will lead.
In answer to the question, my best guess is that anything between four and a dozen races would be optimal. In this piece, for example, some horses had run style averages based on their last four runs, and some had an average based on a lot more than four runs. One could argue this is not perfect and I'd have some sympathy with that argument; but, for me, the time it takes for data collection is important.
Using this more flexible approach (a minimum of four runs) meant it took me less time to create all the data I needed to start writing the article. I shared nearly 150 individual horse run style averages earlier; in total I had to calculate nearly 6000. If I had tried to create ‘last eight runs averages’ for example for all horses I probably would still be trying to do that at Christmas, and probably Christmas 2025! Research is just that, research. It will never be perfect, but for me it is a fun way to learn more about racing and to help me share ideas with the wider geegeez.co.uk audience.
Thanks, as always, for reading.
- DR
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/Catterick_Sprint.jpg319830Dave Renhamhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngDave Renham2022-07-04 15:45:002022-07-04 15:45:02Past Run Style as a Profitable Indicator
The first weekend in July was always considered the pivotal moment in the flat-race season, writes Tony Stafford. It was the time when the best of the present Classic crop could meet their elders in the time-honoured Coral-Eclipse Stakes. That is certainly one sponsorship name that always deserves linking with its race.
Receiving a 10lb weight-for-age concession from the older generation over ten furlongs, I believe the stars of the three-year-old crop ought to beat more mature rivals, as second-favourite Vadeni duly did. But I reckon that, for all the talent the Prix du Jockey Club winner exhibits, the select six-horse Eclipse on Saturday was not won by the best horse on the day, more of which later.
They say patience is a virtue. Every year the remarkable Sir Mark Prescott lines up his team in the spring and we in the game await the flurry of winners from June onwards. It didn’t happen this year and at start of play yesterday morning, Sir Mark had sent out only six winners from the 19 horses to run from his Heath House yard at the bottom of the Bury Side gallops in Newmarket.
That means another 44 of the 63 horses listed in the 2022 edition of my favourite publication, Horses In Training, have yet to see a racecourse unless Sir Mark has twisted some arms to enable his star mare to have a jog up the Rowley Mile or July Course.
The six to have appeared had collected £54k in win and place earnings, £24,000 of which was courtesy of the five-year-old Revolver’s second place in a valuable handicap at the Guineas meeting. Off the track from September 2020, Revolver has yet to appear again. He won his first six races of that season, all handicaps, starting from a mark of 57.
By the time he finally ran in his first race outside handicaps he had gone up by a full three stone and was not disgraced when fourth in the Doncaster Cup, his final outing before Newmarket this spring.
Yesterday, Sir Mark took what must be his favourite active racehorse across to Saint-Cloud for her seasonal reappearance and the grey Frankel five-year-old, Alpinista, was untroubled to pick up the Group 1 Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud.
The £192k prize will have cheered the trainer as well as owner-breeder Kirsten Rausing, stable jockey Luke Morris, and the uncomplaining Heath House team who will belatedly see a welcome injection into the stable pool.
Alpinista was emulating the example of Revolver by winning six races in a row, in her case all from the start of last season. First it was a fillies’ Listed race at Goodwood; then she moved on to Haydock in the corresponding weekend to this a year ago and gained a first Group 2 victory in the Lancashire Oaks.
The following month Sir Mark embarked on a tour of Germany’s top racecourses and most important races available to older horses with her. First, at Hoppegarten in Berlin, she beat the subsequent Arc winner, Torquator Tasso, in easy fashion.
Next it was Cologne and finally Munich, the last three all at the top level, as was yesterday. Now they are getting closer to home, but it seems after her comfortable victory in Paris yesterday, she will be returning to that city for two Longchamp dates in the autumn, with the Prix Vermeille and then the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe firmly on her agenda.
If she does get safely through the Vermeille leg of her itinerary, she will be going into Europe’s premier race with a fully-tested resume. She has won eight of her 13 career races, seven of them in stakes, and it will be interesting to see how she figures in any re-match with Torquator Tasso if he reappears in the race in which he shocked the racing world nine months ago.
His form had been largely discounted before his success, the one grudging element being German horses’ punching-above-their-weight record in big races in France.
Despite form such as that with Alpinista – multiple group winner Walton Street was third - many felt it a fluke. That opinion was reinforced when he reappeared in late May and ran very moderately. However, on Saturday in Hamburg, Torquator Tasso ran away from his rivals, and his jockey Rene Piechulek was already pulling him up long before they reached the post.
That was also the situation before the corresponding race there in 2021 when, after a modest warm-up, he comfortably collected that Group 2 contest. His only subsequent loss that year was in Alpinista’s race at Hoppegarten.
I would love to see Alpinista win the Arc for Sir Mark. It has a ring to it and it would be a richly-deserved achievement for Kirsten Rausing whose home-bred horses do so well in major races. I know Richard Frisby, her advisor, will take a great amount of pleasure from Alpinista’s continued excellence.
I mentioned the Coral-Eclipse at the top of the article, and it wasn’t until I weighed what I said that I had to wonder whether John and Thady might have gone into one again, this time with Mishriff’s rider David Egan.
It was an excellent training performance from the boys (old and new) to have Mishriff right after the disappointment of his second shot at the Saudi Cup, won so lucratively the previous year. He finished a tailed-off last that day and it was quite an anti-climax as a repeat victory would have catapulted Prince Abdul Rahman Abdullah Faisal’s world traveller past Winx, Arrogate and Gun Runner to the top of the world racehorse earnings chart.
Not seen out since, and turning up at Sandown as a 7-1 shot encountering two 2022 Classic winners in Vadeni and Native Trail, the latter who followed his 2,000 Guineas second to Coroebus with victory in the Irish “2,000”.
After Alenquer made the running from, to my mind, the surprise favourite Bay Bridge, the race became one of those Sandown scrums. Horses and their riders seem to find trouble there even in small fields as they cluster near the far rail in the straight.
As in the Gold Cup at Ascot, the trick was to be out in the clear. As Alenquer faded, Bay Bridge got enveloped in the traffic. Native Trail came on a furlong out and as he went for home it looked as though the Gosden second string, Lord North (33/1), could pinch it on the rail. But then, as David Egan searched in vain for room through the middle of the pack, Christophe Soumillon sailed past on the wide outside aboard Vadeni.
Extricating his mount too late, Egan took Mishriff into an impressive and fast closing second, beaten a neck, passing Native Trail by a head close home with Lord North only half a length back in fourth.
When Vadeni won at Chantilly I reflected on what a massive result that Classic win had been for his sire, Churchill, coming as it did from his first crop. The Coolmore team had always been hoping that the dual Guineas winner would become one of the most important successors to his own sire, the recently deceased Galileo.
Such was the importance of Vadeni’s win to Ireland’s premier stud farm that Aidan O’Brien and the Coolmore partners chose not to challenge for the Eclipse last weekend. That cannot have happened very often over the past 20 years – please excuse me for not checking! [2012, Nathaniel’s year, the only time since at least 2004 – Ed.]
There are sales going on at Newmarket this week, just as they were in Deauville over the past few days. One trainer came back with an Aga Khan maiden three-year-old for €95,000, saying it was almost impossible to buy there.
I love the July sale, which is a great counter-point to the wonderful three days of the July meeting on Thursday, Friday and Saturday. Of course, many old-stagers still feel the last day is an unnecessary and unfair extra competition to Ascot and York and, to a lesser extent, Chester.
I will be interested to see what Year Of The Dragon makes on Friday. Slightly unlucky when a close third at Kempton last week, his Timeform p (for Polytrack) 93 rating should compute to a nice price. For purely biased reasons I hope he makes plenty for his owner.
His trainer William Knight had reason to smile at Sandown when Checkandchallenge redeemed his reputation after his luckless 2,000 Guineas run with a fast-finishing second off 108 in a hot mile handicap. Native Trail had got in his way in the Classic and it would not be a shock if his trainer takes “Check” straight back into Group 1 level for his next start.
- TS
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/alpinista.png320830Tony Staffordhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngTony Stafford2022-07-04 07:18:022022-07-04 07:18:02Monday Musings: Sir Mark Dreaming of the Arc
For this final article in my trainers' run style series I am going to share with you some extremely detailed analysis from 2yo races during the 2021 season, writes Dave Renham. It may be only one season, but it covers more than 1100 races and over 10,000 runs, so there is plenty of data to dig into.
Before delving into the stats, for new readers let me quickly explain what is meant by run style. Essentially, run style is the position a horse takes up early on in the race, normally within the first furlong or two, which often defines its running preference. geegeez.co.uk has created two excellent resources to look more closely at run style. These are the Pace Analyser and the Query Tool which can both be found in the in the Tools menu. Running style and the word 'pace' are often linked because the early pace shown by horses in a race determines their early position. Therefore some punters and indeed pundits see run style and pace as interchangeable.
The stats I am using for this piece are based on the site’s pace / run style data. This data on Geegeez are split into four sections –
Led (4) – front runners; horses or horses that take an early lead;
Prominent (3) – horses that race close behind the leader(s);
Mid Division (2) – horses that race mid pack;
Held Up (1) – horses that race at, or near the back of the field early.
The number in brackets is the run style score that is assigned to each section.
OK, onto the flesh and bones of the research. To start let us look at 2yo debutants – juveniles having their first ever racecourse run.
Two-Year-Old Run Style: Debut runs
Here is the breakdown for 2yo debutants in terms of percentage distribution across all four run styles:
As the chart shows, nearly half of all two-year-olds making their debut are held up, either by accident or design, with less than 6% taking an early lead. This is perhaps what one might expect as on debut horses are inexperienced and 'green', and it may take time for the 'penny to drop' on that first racecourse outing. Further, many debutants will be racing against horses with previous race experience which will have an effect.
Two-Year-Old Run Style: Second career start
Juveniles on their second career starts produce a completely difference picture compared to the debut stats:
The chart highlights the vast difference in running style when we compare second career start stats to debuts. Over 16% of all runners now got to the front early and more than half, 53.5%, led or raced prominently. Compare that to 2yo debut figures noted earlier – just 5.6% for horses that lead on 2yo debut and only 29.6% for combined lead / race prominently horses.
The third start figures correlate closely with the second start ones as can be seen below.
When looking at data from fourth career run onwards, the run style splits don’t really change much, with the groups as follows: led 16.5% of the time; 33.7% for prominent racers, 20.3% for mid pack runners and 29.5% for hold ups.
What we need to take from this data is that juvenile run style shape remains similar from second career start onwards; however debut data is completely different; that's something we must take into account when trying to predict how a 2yo race will pan out in terms of run style (assuming the race includes one or more debutants).
Two-Year-Old Run Style: Debut run style – does it influence follow up run?
Let us now consider whether the run style shown by a 2yo on debut influences their second run in any way. Looking at juveniles that led on debut in 2021 (eg. gained a 4 on the Geegeez pace tab) gives the following:
If a horse has the speed to lead on debut, which we know is relatively rare from previous data, their chance of leading next time is high at 36%; in fact exactly 75% of horses that led on debut, led or raced prominently on their second career start. Those are much higher figures for front runners than the average we saw earlier – on average remember horses led on their second ever run 16.3% of the time, and led or raced prominently around half the time; here the led figure is more than double that, and the prominent figure 1.5x. Keep that in mind when assessing debut leaders.
So what happens on the second run if a horse has either raced prominently, midfield or been held up on debut? I have combined the stats on one graph for ease of comparison. The key parts of the graph are at either end – showing what percentage of horses led on their second start (on the left), and the percentage of horses that were held up on their second start (on the right).
The debut run style has a clear bearing on second start run style. As we can see, 2yos that were held up on debut led just 11.6% (about once every nine starts) in their second race, whereas 32.4% were held up once again.
The chances of leading on second start reduces from 36.4% where the horse led on debut, to 22.1% where it raced prominently on debut, to 15% when it raced mid-division on debut, down to that held up debut figure of 11.6%.
Two-Year-Old Run Style: Led on both of their last two runs
I next wanted to explore the run style figures for 2yo runners that had led on both of their previous two starts. This included all occasions when this occurred so it includes horses that led on debut and their second start; likewise it includes horses that may have led on, for instance, their fourth and fifth starts as a 2yo in 2021. Here are the findings:
Almost nearly 42% of 2yos have gone on to lead when they had led in both of their prior two races; and more than 80% led or raced prominently – given what we know from earlier articles about the value of a front rank position, that's powerful insight.
This ‘led’ figure increases to an impressive 56% when we focus on 2yos that had previously run at least five times (and led in last two starts prior).
Two-Year-Old Run Style: Held up on both of their last two runs
We have looked at the run style data for horses that led twice in a row; now a look at 2yos that were held up in both of their last two starts.
Predictably enough, perhaps, there is a complete reversal of what we saw with those juveniles which had led on both of their last two starts. Horses that were held up in consecutive runs saw just 45 of the 591 runners lead next time (7.6%) while 261 horses (44.2%) were held up once again.
I think all the data we have looked at so far shows that past run style data for 2yos is an important indicator of what a horse's future run style will/could be. Ultimately, the run style stats gathered already for this article validates why Geegeez shares past run style/pace data on their racecards.
Two-Year-Old Run Style: Individual trainer performance
I want to expand this research by looking at some 2021 run style data for individual trainers in 2yo races.
In some cases the sample sizes are relatively modest, but there are arguably still enough data for each trainer to build up a potential profile to how they handle their 2yos from a run style perspective in their early races.
There are three tables I wish to share. The first shows the 2021 data for two-year-old debut runs, focusing on run style breakdown by percentage:
Two-Year-Old Run Style: Debut run (2021), trainer run style breakdown
[minimum 30 runs on debut]
As might be expected given the debut stats we looked at earlier, the ‘led’ column has very low percentages generally. It is only really Mark (and Charlie) Johnston and Archie Watson who seem to drill their debutants to go to the front on a regular basis (Johnston had 25 of his 98 debutants go to an early lead, Watson 7 of 30).
Five trainers, on the other hand, have percentages under 3% namely Hills, Gosden, Fahey, Varian and Easterby. Of course, a number of those trainers are playing a longer game of nurture and education with what might be valuable three-year-old prospects down the line; nevertheless, it is highly instructive for us as punters to be aware of - and able to put a number on - the differences.
Two-Year-Old Run Style: 2nd career run (2021), trainer run style breakdown
This next table shows the run style percentages by trainer of two-year-olds on their second starts:
Horses learn a lot from that first racecourse run, and that is reflected a big change here for most of the trainers. However, a few trainers still seem to be averse to allowing their runners too much front end speed latitude. The Charlton stable is one, not surprisingly (see article 3 of the series for further details), but Roger Varian and Richard Fahey also rarely send a two-year-old to the front on their second start.
Two-Year-Old Run Style: 3rd career run (2021), trainer run style breakdown
Earlier in the article we saw that second and third career starts had a very similar statistical breakdown in terms of run style breakdown; let’s now examine if that has been the case for individual trainers:
The Johnston stable on both second and third career starts sent over half of their runners into an early lead (50.6% on second run, 59.2% on third) during the 2021 season.
At the other end of the scale, the Charlton yard have seen nearly 60% of their runners race mid-division or at the back of the field early in their third starts. Patience is a virtue for this team.
In general, when it comes to a two-year-old's third career start, this cohort of trainers is more likely to send their charges to the front early. Richard Fahey, however, is still not that keen (from a decent sample size of 53 runners). Michael Bell and Richard Hughes have low percentages also but in truth they have relatively small sample sizes of 18 and 24 respectively; that said, they are also both fine exponents of handicap first-timers, and it may be that it doesn't suit the plan for these runners to be too handy early doors on their final mark-qualifying run!
Those three tables should be excellent starting points for anyone interested in trying to predict trainer run style in a 2yo race (assuming it is the horses’ first, second or third career start). However, for those of you who would like to compare the chances of an individual trainer’s horse leading in any one of their first three starts as a 2yo, I have combined the led percentages in two graphs thus:
The remaining trainer figures are shown below (it would have been far too crowded to put all the trainers on just one graph).
And that concludes this fifth and final part of the trainer run styles series. What I hope the series has demonstrated is that different trainers really do have different approaches when it comes to the likely run style of their horses. This article in particular has also shown that past pace data when taken ‘generally’ is a decent indicator of future run style. And you can get this all on the Geegeez racecards - if you're not a subscriber already, here's a link to get a £1 trial month >
To close, here are five more stats that I uncovered from the 2yo data taken from the 2021 season:
2yos that led LTO (any career start) led again next time 33.2% of the time;
2yos that were held up LTO (any career start) were held up again in their next race 36.9% of the time;
Horses that were held up on their first three career starts led on their 4th start just twice from 61 qualifiers (34 were held up again which equates to nearly 56% of runners);
Horses that were held up on three consecutive starts (at any time as a 2yo) saw just 6 of 149 lead next time (4%);
Trainers Hugo Palmer, Simon Crisford and Sir Mark Prescott did not have enough individual data to appear earlier, however they sent out 80 2yo debutants between them in 2021, none of which took the early lead!
Good luck, and thanks for reading.
- DR
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/archiehugo-e1590238797721.jpg320830Dave Renhamhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngDave Renham2022-06-27 08:52:262022-06-27 08:52:26Trainers and Run Style: Part 5
The only people with a worse record than racecourse tipsters must be the weather forecasters who, in the early summer of 2022, have repeatedly predicted copious amounts of rainfall, only most often to have to admit they were wrong, writes Tony Stafford.
The latest example to affect me, or rather not, was Friday’s warning of serious flooding in East London and most of Essex and no doubt elsewhere. We barely saw a drop. Neither did they the previous week at Royal Ascot. Had the predicted precipitation happened, Frankie Dettori might still have been in a job.
It all revolved around Trueshan, three times the victor in tussles with Stradivarius, twice in the Long Distance Cup (Group 2) at Ascot in October 2020 and 2021 and also in the Group 1 Prix Du Cadran at Longchamp a couple of weeks before their second Ascot encounter.
Twice in the week before last Alan King and the owners of Trueshan agonised long and late about whether to allow the six-year-old to take his place in the field, in the Gold Cup on the Thursday and then in the Queen Alexandra Stakes, the meeting finale a couple of days later.
Probably an hour and a half before the Saturday race first Andrew Gemmell, one of the ownership group in Trueshan, walked past my table in the owners’ restaurant – I hasten to add I was a guest, not an owner! – and upon my question: “Does he run?” replied, “I don’t know.”
Maybe half a minute later, King came along the same pathway between the tables and gave a resigned shake of the head, not emphatic, but close enough. No Queen Alex or Gold Cup, so they would have to wait for the Northumberland Plate, a race in which he’d finished sixth 12 months earlier running off 118.
Since Newcastle he had been unbeaten in four races, the Goodwood Cup preceding the two Stradivarius defeats and a Listed prep when accounting for Hughie Morrison’s subsequent Henry II Stakes winner, Quickthorn, comfortably over an inadequate 1m6f at Nottingham in April.
In some ways it was difficult to suggest he should be running off just a 2lb higher mark on Saturday, but he was actually having to carry a full 9lb more as Alan King chose to take 5lb off his back last year, employing talented claimer Rhys Clutterbuck.
This time he allowed Hollie Doyle to retain her partnership with the gelding and as this year’s race was effectively 2lb inferior in quality, he carried the almost unfathomable weight of 10st 8lb. That he should come through and win merely made a certainty in retrospect that he would have beaten Kyprios, 2021 Derby and St Leger runner-up Mojo Star, and his “bunny”, Stradivarius.
But of course in the interim, by the time Trueshan did get his day in the Gosforth Park sun, Dettori had already been dumped by John and Thady Gosden as they and owner Bjorn Neilsen refused to compromise their dissatisfaction for his Gold Cup ride. It seemed they preferred to judge him on a single ride against the 15 wins in 24 previous associations between the eight-year-old entire horse and 51-year-old rider.
The various statements from Gosden senior showed only irritation at Dettori’s perceived allowing his mount to drift back in the field at a crucial stage. I and many people close to where I watched the race were admiring of Ryan Moore’s tactical nous in preventing Dettori’s getting out as he attempted to switch off the inside.
One man’s meat is another man’s poison. If Trueshan had been able to run, Stradivarius would probably have played one of his bum notes. Winning the Plate off 10st 8lb, conceding 28lb to the regally-bred five-times-winning stayer Spirit Mixer and 18 others should ensure a few pounds more to his mark tomorrow morning.
Over the years the Gosden axe has fallen on a number of jockeys. There is no doubt – and Frankie’s reception after his win from his sole ride at Newmarket on Saturday when he was eviscerated from two Gosden horses demonstrated as much – where the public sentiments lie. Could you imagine Big John, or even Thady, jumping off a horse in a winner’s enclosure? Silly observation? Never have I said anything sillier!
Trueshan’s performance was exceptional and confirmed once again that Alan King is a masterful trainer, equally adept at the top table on the flat as over the jumps where his talent was honed at the side of the much-missed David Nicholson. I only have to mention the Duke’s name to feel again the pain of his weighty right boot crashing against my shin bone when we met on the soccer field a lifetime ago.
Newcastle provided a tasty aperitif to an equally remarkable result in the Irish Derby, won by an eye-opening seven lengths by the Ralph Beckett-trained and Juddmonte-owned Frankel colt, Westover.
Third to the unbeaten Desert Crown in the Derby at Epsom when denied a run at a crucial stage in the last two furlongs, he had been only mildly supported as a 25-1 shot with his rating of 109. That was raised by 7lb before Saturday, and it will be intriguing where Dominic Gardner-Hill rates him in relation to Sir Michael Stoute’s colt tomorrow.
I would imagine Beckett, who until last autumn had dealt exclusively with fillies for his Group 1 successes, would love to take on Desert Crown again. On Saturday Westover had Piz Badile, a disappointment at Epsom, well beaten in second while it may not be a reliable line to point to Oaks winner Tuesday, who finished in a well-beaten fourth.
Joint-favourite with the winner, it was her turn to have a less than perfect run round under Ryan Moore. I doubt that Aidan O’Brien or the Coolmore owners will be looking to sever their association with their retained jockey who has been riding at the top of his game this year.
Last October, Beckett sent his two-year-old Angel Bleu on two trips to France and he came back with Group 1 wins in the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere on Arc Day at Longchamp and the Criterium International at Saint-Cloud. He has yet to match that form in two runs since, including behind Coroebus at Royal Ascot.
Scope, a Teofilo three-year-old, collected the Prix Royal-Oak (Group 1) at Longchamp late that month in the style of a potential top stayer. There was nothing in his promising second over a short for him mile-and-a-half in a Newbury Group 3 last month to suggest he might not be up there challenging Trueshan, Kyprios, and Mojo Star, not to mention Stradivarius, for the remainder of an interesting season for the stayers.
The first of the one mile Classics were run less than two months ago but already we are getting word of possible Ballydoyle colts and fillies with aspirations of winning next year’s Guineas races.
Auguste Rodin, beaten on debut at the beginning of June, but a son of Deep Impact out of the multiple Group 1 winner Rhododendron (by Galileo) was expected to put that right in yesterday’s opener at the Curragh before missing the race owing to the rain-softened ground.
There was no hesitation on the part of Aidan O’Brien, though, in the following fillies’ Group 2 over six furlongs. Here, Statuette, a daughter of US Triple Crown winner Justify, a Coolmore America stallion, out of Immortal Verse, was “expected” and duly delivered.
The word beforehand was that she was superior to Royal Ascot winner Meditate, so impressive when making all in the Albany Stakes. Maybe she is, maybe she isn’t, but it’s a nice talking point as the season progresses.
Even more interesting was Ryan Moore’s observation after the runaway victory of 20-1 shot Aikhal in the ten-furlong Group 3 on Saturday. Aikhal, rated 109, was previously seen when last of 11 in the St James’s Palace Stakes, but the son of Galileo had placed juvenile form behind such as Angel Bleu and Coroebus.
“I think we ran the wrong one in the Derby,” was Ryan’s alleged whispered aside. It is not beyond the realms of possibility that this Galileo colt might be another dramatic improver to bolster the stable’s big-race armoury in the coming months.
There have been many 'horses to follow' lists manifesting from Royal Ascot 2022, aggregated via a typically eclectic array of approaches to the handicapping puzzle. Given the level of quality on display last week, it is more than reasonable to expect a glut of subsequent scorers emerging from those 28 races. Winners, alas, do not necessarily equate to profit, so our job - and the task attempted hereafter herein - is to try to find a few that might reward at a price in their upcoming starts.
With that in mind, those in DARK BLUEBOLD CAPITALS constitute potential value plays in the not too distant - perhaps their next two or three starts. Naturally, that will depend on the race conditions and opposition so discretion aforethought.
I'm using a combination of sectional timing data (mainly) and negative draw bias (occasionally) to curate my 'to follow' list...
Tuesday
Maljoom / Berkshire Shadow / Bayside Boy
The St James's Palace Stakes was a race that played out late, all of the first eight runners home finishing fast. While Coroebus clung to the verdict, few judges would consider him a certainty to replicate that next time against supporting members of this cast. The most notable was Maljoom who, once granted running room, was tearing up the unassailable deficit; in another two strides, the German 2000 Guineas winner would have added Ascot gold. He's clearly of interest next time though his odds are expected to be suffocated by the memory of this luckless effort.
A couple who might sail under the radar in spite of being only a length and a bit behind the podium finishers are BERKSHIRE SHADOW and Bayside Boy. The former gained a sectional upgrade close to Maljoom's in spite of Maljoom's electric last eighth of a mile: our mile upgrades are based on the final two furlongs. The latter got no run in the straight until the birds had flown and, once a seam appeared, he rattled through it covering the final furlong in 11.82 seconds (vs Maljoom's 11.47).
Okita Soushi / Raymond Tusk
Eighteen runners over 14 furlongs was the tale of the Copper Horse Stakes, a handicap, tape. The race itself was marked by various troubled trip stories including, to a small degree, the winner, Get Shirty, whose passage was blocked before he saw daylight. Likewise Cleveland, in second, did not enjoy a hassle-free transit; but the one who was most interfered with was surely third-placed OKITA SOUSHI, who was eleven lengths behind the leader with half a mile to go. He made up a remarkable seven lengths in the next quarter mile and was still closing in the final quarter but wound up two lengths shy of Shirty. The Irish 'capper has him up two to 106 but that may not stop this progressive chap - he still only has four runs in the book.
His 14 point upgrade was the joint biggest in the race, shared with the very likeable Raymond Tusk. Martin Harley had this one chilly out back - a length behind even Okita Soushi - and, while Okita was making up seven in the penultimate quarter, Raymond closed eight lengths of his margin before flattening out a touch in the last two furlongs. It was a big effort from a horse who handles these massive field charges better than most: he could pop up at a handsome dividend before long.
Wednesday
Dubai Love
Not much to report in terms of this post's sponsored angles for Wednesday, but Dubai Love probably ran better than the record shows when 7th of 20 in the Kensington Palace Stakes handicap. That round track monster field mile race invited some horses to make a much broader arc through the bend than others, and Saeed bin Suroor's mare began from the proverbial car park in 23 (20 once the non-runners were removed), the widest stall of all. All things considered, she fared well: covering a lot more ground early and fading a touch late. She's probably handicapped to win, helped by a drop of 2lb for this good effort.
The King George V Stakes, a 3yo mile and a half handicap, was one of those with the historic - and quirky - high draw bias. As it turned out, the first two home, and six of the first seven, all exited single figure stalls. Obviously, horses can win from any gate, but such a low stall peppering of the target has been rare in big Ascot fields over twelve furlongs, as the following image (data since 2009) succinctly articulates.
The winner, Secret State, had a prominent sit throughout and got the all-important split when he needed it. Even so, he was on fumes at the last to repel Deauville Legend, whose failure to secure an opportune opening confined him to gallant defeat. The Legend's misfortune will have been lost on few - the official rater included, he's up 6lb - meaning his next day price will comfortably, perhaps overly, accommodate that fact.
In fourth was Savvy Knight, who found four lengths in the final three furlongs but needed to find five and a half. He had a charmed inside run but just couldn't reel in the leaders. A 2lb rise is probably fair but doesn't especially help his next day prospects. FLYING DOLPHIN also got two more but he still looks in front of his perch. Here, he was caught in early scrimmaging, the upshot of which was a position a dozen lengths off the leader at the halfway point. His 36.1 seconds final three furlongs was the second fastest in the race, after BALHAMBAR, a 40/1 chance for the Derby dream team of Sir Stoute and the Kingscote. He had a luckless transit and was never in contention, but his upgrade figure is the biggest in the field; down one to 84 helps for this four-time racer presumably not named after a drinking establishment near Clapham.
Kyprios / Mojo Star / Stradivarius
I wanted to mention the Gold Cup, not because I feel there are any dark horses in its midst but because the sectional 'by furlong' chart is quite interesting. Kyprios, the winner, benefited most from track position - being nearest to the lollipop when the sprint began. The race sectionals above the chart show how fast the leaders ran in the final three-quarters of a mile and, especially, in the final three furlongs. What they don't show are the preposterously fast final furlong fractions which, despite this being the second longest race of the week, included two of the quickest ten at the meeting (see this excellent debrief by Simon Rowlands for the full rundown).
At the three furlong marker, Kyprios (white sleeves, red cap) was 3½ lengths behind the leader and with a wide but clear path to the finish. Meanwhile, Mojo Star (purple and white quartered cap) was a length further back and with similar clear but outside sailing lane. Poor old Frankie, aboard Stradivarius (black jacket, yellow cap), was behind the eight ball - or the ten horse, Princess Zoe, more correctly - and, by the time he'd indicated (mirror, signal, manoeuvre) and turned left into the nine - yes, nine - path, the game was up.
Dettori must still be trying to scrub off the tyre treads from having been relentlessly and mercilessly hurled under the bus by his 'pal', John Gosden, whose usual grace was missing, presumed dead, by the time of the third airing of the "it's all Frankie's fault" soliloquy.
The reality is that, yes, Ryan Moore, aboard the winner, did him up like the proverbial smoked and salted fish when the Italian needed a run: nothing untoward, just top notch race riding, the kind of thing the King of Ascot will have meted out a hundred times down the years. It wasn't a vintage ride astride the Strad, for sure, but how often do you see a nine horse race over two and a half miles fan out nine wide with 300 yards to go? This wasn't bad luck, it was filthy rotten 'orrible luck.
Helicoptering up from the specifics in closing, Kyprios will probably improve again, as will Mojo Star, both stepping up from 1m6f to this marathon. They are the future of the Cup squad.
Saga
It never rains but it pours and Saga, ridden by Frankie, passed all bar the winner, Thesis, in the next race, the Britannia Stakes handicap. The running lines in the bottom left of each position row - bold figure for race position, superscript for distance behind the leader (or in front, if race leader) - for the first three home are instructive:
The fact that Jimi Hendrix led the 30-runner field into the final furlong, and was able to battle on for third, reveals plenty about the even-ish tempo of the race, at least to around the furlong pole. While Jimi was an Ezy Rider for Rob Hornby, Messrs. Moore and Dettori were again taking the scenic route to protagonism: with half of the mile race elapsed, Moore and Thesis were 4½ lengths adrift of Jimi H, while Frankie's journey was more odyssey than Saga as he meandered his way to the half-time oranges in last - of 30! - place. He was still tail end Carlo with two furlongs to go, albeit 'only' 2¾ lengths off trailblazing Hendrix.
Saga's official margin of defeat was a head. The times in the right hand colour lozenges show that Saga covered the final quarter mile in 23.51 seconds, almost three-tenths quicker than Thesis, and just about a full second faster than Jimi Hendrix. Thank God it wasn't Jamie Spencer is all I can say. The first two home are evidently talented, especially the runner-up; there was no argument on that score from the handicapper who has elevated Thesis to 99 (+9) and Saga to 105 (+8).
Cresta
I have to admit to not being much of a fan of the Hampton Court Stakes. Its interim distance is less of a problem than its typically middling alumni: these are horses who'd probably not win the three-year-old handicaps and would definitely not shake up the pecking order in the proper Group races. This year the ground was similarly fast all week. Against that relatively fixed slide rule, Claymore won the Group 3 Hampton Court in 2:07:45. Two days later, Missed The Cut lugged a pound more to a clear-cut Golden Gates handicap verdict in 2:06:00.
Of course, the races were run in different fashions: the G3 was steady with a rapid final stanza while the handicap was 3.5 seconds quicker in the opening three furlongs and 2.4 seconds slower in the closing three furlongs. That conservation of energy until the grandstands engaged full voice enabled Claymore to repel, oh no, Frankie once more, this time aboard HM The Queen's Reach For The Moon, the red hot 2/5 favourite.
Further back, and with no chance given the race tempo, was Cresta whose final two furlongs were blitzed in 23.43 seconds: not so much too little too late as a lot waaaaay too late. But I'm not sure I like the form here at all.
Friday
One of the performances of the week was that produced by Candleford, absent 219 days theretofore, in utterly walloping 17 rivals in the mile and a half Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes. This time the quirky draw bias was in full effect, the facile winner exiting trap 18 and taking the tourists' route in the straight. He even had time to sign a couple of autographs on the run to the line... no, sorry, it wasn't quite that easy. But nearly...
The first six home were drawn 18-10-16-4-15-17 and the horse drawn 4 that finished in position four, was Brilliant Light. Another bin Suroor inmate - the Godolphin Reserves handler had a crackerjack week with plenty of shots on target and one twenty yard screamer (20/1 winner) - Brilliant Light endured the in-running comment "bit short of room" twice in the Racing Post man's (or woman's) post-race observations. Riding for luck often doesn't find luck, and here was a case in point. Unchanged by the official scorer on 96, he might be back on top before long.
If Thursday was Purgatory for Lanfranco, Friday brought a heavenly slice of redemption in the Coronation Stakes aboard the clearly tip-top talent, Inspiral. Unbeaten in four as a two-year-old including when authoritatively claiming the Group 1 Fillies' Mile, she was even more imperious here in a rout of what had looked pre-race to be a very credible collective of sophomores. Trainer John Gosden had decided to skip both the 1000 Guineas and the Irish equivalent in order to give Inspiral the time she needed to come to hand; on this evidence she could have taken in both, at 75% and 85% readiness, and copped the lot.
Although she has yet to face Homeless Songs, herself a daylight winner of the Irish 1000 Guineas, Inspiral appears to have the world at her feet. While the three-year-old miler colts are still arguing about who's best boy, there is only that one pretender to Inspiral's filly crown. A match with the Irish Guineas winner, or perhaps even with Baaeed in receipt of age and sex allowances, as well as any number of Coroebus's posse, would be very tasty indeed!
Saturday
And so to Saturday and a one of the strangest results I've ever seen. The Chesham Stakes, a seven furlong juvenile race, featured a strong-looking line up headed by the Ballydoyle blueblood, Alfred Munnings. As they passed the post, heads were scratched, chins were stroked, teeth were gnashed and placepot tickets were binned: HOLLOWAY BOY, 40/1 and making his career bow, won convincingly from 80/1 Pearling Path with 33/1 Lakota Sioux - swishing her tail like a windmill throughout - back in third. There was not much obvious fluke about it either.
Karl Burke is having a fantastic season and must be one of the best trainers of two-year-olds in the land; it wasn't a complete shock to him that Holloway Boy, who had shown a reasonable amount at home, won. It was a complete shock to most of the rest of us.
But, again, look at that top right orange rectangle: HB, under Danny Tudhope - most people's man of the match (perhaps bar Ryan Moore) last week, was much the fastest at the finish and was going away after the line. I'd expect the phone will have been warm enough in the few days since because this lad - by Ulysses out of a Pivotal mare - has a pretty sexy pedigree to go with his eye-opening debut. He already stays a mile on this evidence and is bred for at least ten and to be a three-year-old. Holloway Boy got a six point sectional upgrade for this effort and it will be fascinating to see where next for Burke's exciting rookie. In spite of this impressive score, there is a chance he's over-priced next time due to his Chesham starting price; that might make it worth buying a ticket to see if he can back up the Ascot stunner.
The Jersey Stakes was next and, over the same course and distance of the Chesham, the three-year-olds took to the stage. Or at least to stage left. The first six home, of 15, were drawn 14-12-2-13-11-15 and all raced near side - the left as you look from the starting stalls to the finish. But five of those six, from their double digit draws, had only to roll forwards while trap 2, DUBAI POET, made a mid-race move from the right flank (centre of the track) towards the left. The first half dozen were better than two lengths clear of the best of the other nine.
Dubai Poet was beaten a length and a neck but must have forfeited three to four lengths in traversing the field: up five to 109 is unhelpful but fully deserved.
A little later on the final day, Clock Watcher pin up boy, Rohaan, was back to defend his Wokingham Stakes crown. He'd been somewhat out of form this season, having scored at huge prices on multiple occasions last term after this column had advertised his ability 17 months ago. Naturally, being the exquisite judge I am, I'd removed David Evans' pride and joy on the very morning of the Wokingham, determining that I'd had my fun with him. That was as maybe, but Rohaan sure had not finished having fun with me!
With Ryan Moore in the cockpit, Rohaan was slowly away, as is his wont, before zigzagging through from the back in a 23.61 seconds last quarter mile. This cute little chart shows that Rohaan (grey line) still had three lengths to find entering the final eighth. Find it he did, at the main expense of Popmaster (turquoise line), who led at the furlong but was three-parts behind where it mattered.
That was orange blob and four point upgrade territory for the winner, on top of a very good speed figure: Rohaan is back!
Later on, in the Golden Gates handicap, Andrew Balding's GROUNDBREAKER had a terrible run from a terrible draw and still managed to finish fourth. The first seven home were berthed in 13-19-15-3-16-12-14. It's a stretch to suggest he'd have beaten Missed The Cut with a better rub of the green, but he'd probably have finished second; the lad in that spot got three more from the handicapper while Groundbreaker stays on his mark of 90.
And still there was time for one more takeaway in the concluding Queen Alexandra Stakes, over two miles and six furlongs. Stratum, a win or bust player if ever there was, has form in the past two seasons of 15174131601 taking in flat races, hurdles and chases during the sequence. What a guy! Like his owner, Brighton & Hove Albion and Starlizard head honcho Tony Bloom, he has his own rulebook and oftentimes his rivals are unwittingly competing on his terms. This was such an occasion.
Bimbling along towards the back of the pack until the three-furlong peg, Stratum was then invited to engage his longest stride. He responded with relish, gusto and zeal, not to mention fervour, moving from a six-length tenth of 12 to a one length first and earning a tenuous upgrade of seven in the process. I say 'tenuous' because the sample size of 2m6f flat races at Ascot is three, and that is not enough on which to build even the most flimsy of time-based cases.
What is clear is that that upgrade was earned off the back of a predictably steady-early-quicker-late pace setup, which meant most of Stratum's rivals also attained a bolt-on bonus from our sectional algo. The only horse to match Stratum with a seven, and probably the most interesting one to take from this cohort, was Timour. This four-year-old's international superstar connections - French maestro, Andre Fabre, and Kiwi red baron, James McDonald - were thwarted by an unusual misjudgement from the latter: he was simply too far out of his ground.
The ultra-marathon here was a huge increase in trip for the French raider, a son of Gleneagles, and it could not be said he failed to stay. He may now be tried in France's Cup races, the Prix du Cadran and Prix Royal-Oak, though whether he's quite up to that level remains to be seen.
This is the fourth article in a series in which I have been looking at run style bias, writes Dave Renham. This piece follows on from the previous one with focus once again on two-year-old races. As with the rest of the series, the data for this article cover the last eight full seasons from 2014 to 2021 (UK racing only). Every 2yo race during this time frame has been collated.
For those of you who have read my previous articles, you may want to skip the next few lines as I will be explaining run style for any first time reader. Run style is concerned with the position a horse takes up early on in the race. 'Early' in a race normally means within the first furlong, sometimes the first quarter mile or so.
We split these early positions into four groups:
Led (4) – horse that gets to the front early (known as front runners). Usually you get one early leader, but occasionally you get more than one horse disputing the lead;
Prominent (3) – horses that race close to the front; right behind the leader(s);
Mid Division (2) – horses that settle mid pack in the early stages;
Held Up (1) – horses who begin their race at, or near the back of, the field.
The number in brackets is the run style score that is assigned to each section. These numerical scores help with certain types of analysis.
Each Geegeez racecard has full run style history on the Full Form tab, and the last four run style figures for each horse on the Pace tab. Pace and run style are often used to mean the same thing. This gives us useful past data with more experienced runners. Obviously some 2yo horses will have less data as they may not have run four times. This hopefully is where the trainer run style insights shared in this article will prove their worth.
I have used the Geegeez Query Tool once again to get the data and then used the power of excel to analyse it in more detail.
In my previous article the primary focus was seeing how often 2yo runners of individual trainers took the early lead (in % terms). This time I am looking, to begin with at least, at the success rate of trainers when their 2yo runners take an early lead.
Benchmarks: Overall 2yo strike rates by run style
To begin with I want to look at the average win percentage strike rates for all trainers / runners in terms of run style. In other words what percentage of front runners / early leaders win on average, what percentage of prominent runners win etc. Here is the breakdown:
These raw strike rate percentages show a striking run style bias. A huge 23%, almost a quarter, of 2yos win when they take the lead early; and early leaders are over four times more likely to win than any individual hold up horse, who barely win at more than one in 20. The average UK two-year-old field size across the period was a touch greater than nine runners per race, which equates to an average winning strike rate of about 11%.
If we examine the A/E and IV values too we can see that these correlate strongly with the overall strike rates above:
The message is clear, and one that we have seen consistently during this series of articles – early leaders comfortably outperform prominent runners, who in turn outperform midfield runners, who outperform hold up horses.
Run Style Performance by Race Distance in Two-Year-Old Races
Front runners
Generally we have seen in the past that the shorter the distance the better the performance of front runners. This is the case here, too, but the difference between sprints (5-6f) and races over 7f-1m is smaller than I had expected. As we get to 1m1f+ the overall success rate does drop off a bit, but it is still high compared to the average win chance of each runner.
Strike rates, returns on investment, A/E values and Impact Values all show a correlation as the distance increases. There are far fewer longer distance races and it seems that front runners do not offer a profitable avenue once you get past a mile.
Hold Up Horses
As we now know, 2yo runners that are held up have poor strike rates, but their chance of success improves a little when we get to 1m1f+:
As a collective, though, hold up 2yos are ones we should avoid like the plague regardless of race distance.
Best Front Runner Trainers in Two-Year-Old Races
Let us now look at the trainers who had the highest strike rates with their 2yo front runners during this eight-year time frame (minimum 40 runs / top 25 trainers):
This table illustrates why I am doing so much research into run style. The Win PL figures once again show how profitable front runners are, and that trying to find the optimum way of predicting them is something all punters should aspire to.
Saeed Bin Suroor tops the list with a very impressive strike rate from his front runners, and that improves furthre to 53.2% (33 wins from 62) with horses priced 3/1 or shorter. bin Suroor's front runners at Newmarket have won eight from 14 with another four runners placed: that's limited data but was interesting to me, nevertheless.
The other main Godolphin trainer, Charlie Appleby, has also seen great success with fancied runners – his front running favourites have won 78 from 141 (SR 55.3%). He’s been less successful with 2yo front runners priced 13/2 or bigger with just 1 win from 30 runners.
And the Gosden stable coupled with a certain Frankie Dettori on board is a potent 2yo front running combo with 20 winners from 36 (SR 55.6%).
Best Hold Up Trainers in Two-Year-Old Races
Overall, as one would expect, the best hold up records are poor in relation to the front running stats. However, here are the trainers with the best 2yo strike rates for hold up horses (minimum 80 runs / top 15 trainers):
Only three of these 15 trainers made a profit with their hold up horses, and generally the returns are very poor and the strike rates modest at best. Compare that with all barthree of the top 25 front-runner trainers making a profit!
It is worth noting that many of these trainers are associated with horses expected to show more at three years of age and, as such, are more likely to be quality animals racing over the longer two-year-old distances and on a learning curve - and therefore not rushed from the starting stalls.
Best Front Runner Trainers with favourites in Two-Year-Old Races
It was noted in the third article in this series that favourites were more likely to lead than any other market position in 2yo races. Nearly 27% of all 2yo favourites led early in the study period. Hence the performance of favourites when they led early is worth noting, especially when linked to individual trainers. Below is the list of the top trainers in terms of win strike rate with front running 2yo favourites (minimum 25 runs / top 20 trainers):
There are some very high strike rates as you might expect, but it is pleasing to note that all bar one trainer would have proved profitable at starting price with such runners.
So if you can find a 2yo favourite from one of these trainers that you think may lead early, then you potentially have a great bet. Of course the horse is not guaranteed to lead – always the tricky part, that!
However, at least we know that, as favourite, the chance of this happening is around the 27% mark without using any other factors to help with our decision.
In fact, my previous article did highlight two of the trainers above in terms of the chance of their favourites leading. To remind you, favourites from the Johnston stable led 53.1% of the time, while favourites from Archie Watson’s stable led 46.9% of the time.
It makes sense to offer a much longer list of trainers in terms of the percentage chance of their favourites leading. So, painstakingly hand cranked (but worth the effort, I feel), here they are:
For me, the more statistics I am aware of, the better. And there are huge differences in the frequency of front-running favourites by trainer, as can be seen.
Being aware of how successful a trainer is likely to be with a front running two-year-old is one thing, but if the horse's chance of actually leading is low then this obviously reduces the chance of a successful front running bet! Roger Varian, Richard Fahey, Ed Dunlop, Ed Walker, Aidan O’Brien, the Charltons, David Simcock, Stuart Williams and the Meades are trainers that rarely send favourites out to the front, so this may be noteworthy when any of these saddles a 2yo market leader.
Front Runners by Race Class in 2yo races
To finish with I want to look at 2yo front running data in connection with class of race. Firstly an overview of front running strike rates in two-year-old races by race class:
The figures are fairly uniform with the exception of the highest level, Class 1 races, where it has been harder for front runners to win. This makes sense in that the quality of opposition is as good as it gets, and the edge front runners typically enjoy at lower class levels is likely to be eroded by the ability to accelerate of their top tier rivals.
A quick look at the Impact Values now as this helps even out any anomalies connected with potential differences in number of runners per class group:
Class 1 races again come out as the least successful for front runners, which is not surprising based on the previous chart. The drop in Class 3 Impact Value is also which is worth noting, such races often having a smaller average field size (slightly fewer than eight runners per race, compared with an average of between 8.7 (Class 4) and nearly 10 (Class 1 and Class 6) for other race classes). The other class groups have very similar figures.
I have shared a huge amount of data in the first four articles in this series, all of which is important to help us have a greater appreciation of the importance of run style, and a stronger motivation for trying to predict run style. Each set of data has its own merit, but combining them all is where the edge over other less informed punters is likely to occur.
In the final part of this series looking at trainers and run style, I will be doing some laser-focused research on the entirety of the 2021 season.
Until then, happy punting.
- DR
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/SaeedbinSuroor_RealWorld_FrankieDettori.jpg319830Dave Renhamhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngDave Renham2022-06-21 08:57:402022-06-21 09:26:09Trainers and Run Style: Part 4
We’ve just been through five days of the most wonderful racing – and, until Saturday, flawless weather – at Royal Ascot, but for many the experience was incomplete, writes Tony Stafford. For my part, I don’t think I managed to make a single phone call on my mobile on any of the four days I attended.
Others fared better but the internet, and especially punters attempting to put on bets via their devices, proved a generally difficult and frustrating process.
One friend not in attendance said: “It’s just the same at West Ham. As soon as you get to half-time 60,000 people take out their phones and it’s just impossible.”
But going to a Premier League football match is nothing like spending six hours watching the racing and fashion and arranging to meet up with friends. You might be able to suggest a point to gather, but when as on Saturday there is a crowd of more than 69,000 that’s not so easy. Surely it’s not beyond the wit, or the finances, of Ascot to improve communications.
I described my feelings as the week progressed – not improved on Saturday when my glasses disappeared while eating lunch – as being in solitary confinement. Not that I ever have been!
The racing started with a bang with world best Baaeed in the Queen Anne, quickly followed by a performance full of promise from Bradsell and Hollie Doyle for Archie Watson in the Coventry, and it went on from there.
Quite by chance I had the ear of Chris Waller for a little while before racing started on Tuesday and, as well as appreciating his confidence in the chance of Nature Strip in the Group One King’s Stand Stakes, which he won as a champion should, I also got some interesting stuff on the post-racing life of his great mare Winx.
Owners of many outstanding racemares have found that life in the breeding shed has not been as straight-forward as they might have hoped. Winx has had her setbacks, losing one foal, following which she had a tough time according to Waller.
If I understood him correctly, he believes extreme activity on the racecourse often inhibits the development of the reproductive systems making such mares immature in that regard. Winx deserves to get a foal or two to pass on her magical ability.
Then there was the narrow success of Coroebus in the St James’s Palace Stakes, William Buick bringing him with one of many well-timed challenges during the week.
Buick competed toe to toe throughout with Ryan Moore just as Godolphin did with Coolmore and while it was honours even in terms of good rides and victories for the two major powers, Ryan had the edge numerically. His riding this season is as good as it ever was.
Over recent seasons we had become accustomed to Ryan vainly trying to make up ground in the latter stages of Royal Ascot races after Frankie Dettori had made the first move. This year he seemed much more intent on riding closer to the front.
Once the field gets round the home turn at Ascot there is not much more than two furlongs for a rider to develop a winning run and, with crowding often to be expected, jockeying for position is more important there than on many tracks.
I did think Ryan’s riding of Kyprios in the Gold Cup was a masterpiece. It’s one thing making sure you keep your main rival boxed in when you can. At least twice as Dettori searched for a gap to start his move on Stradivarius, Moore, level and on his outside, kept the door shut.
But when Frankie’s race as far as winning was run, Moore still had saved enough on Kyprios for the Coolmore/O’Brien horse to deal with the dangerous challenge of Mojo Star around the outside. Last year’s Derby and St Leger runner-up, resuming for the Richard Hannon team after a long break, loomed up in the Amo Racing colours, looking sure to prevail.
Sadly for Amo boss Kia Joorabchian – in the paddock on Saturday with a football-oriented entourage that included Rio Ferdinand – none of his 16 runners at the meeting could win. This fastest-growing team in racing will win some big ones, that’s inevitable. How long, though, the emotional Kia can balance expectation with the inevitable disappointments that racing at this sort of level brings, is the interesting question.
Amo Racing’s support was a major factor in George Boughey’s rapid advance in the first couple of years of his career so it came as quite a shock for me to discover that of the 82 horses to have run from his Hamilton Road stable in Newmarket this year, only three have been in Amo Racing ownership.
Already successful at Classic level with Cachet in the 1,000 Guineas this year, Boughey now has two Royal Ascot wins to his name. Inver Park won Thursday’s concluding handicap, but a much more impressive winner showed the trainer’s sure touch on Saturday.
The Golden Gates Handicap, a three-year-old contest over ten furlongs, is a recent addition as Ascot went to a full five days of seven-race cards. Boughey’s Missed The Cut could not have been a more convincing winner.
I have mentioned before how significant it was for the UK racing and breeding industry that so many potentially high-class horses from the Shadwell stable were made available because of the economies needed after the death of Sheikh Hamdan Al Maktoun.
Missed The Cut, a son of the top US sire Quality Road, never raced as a juvenile and went to the February sale at Newmarket where he was snapped up by former jockey, Ed Babington. A successful businessman in garden furniture, he is also developing his racing interests, having involvement in the Roger Varian stable as well as with Boughey.
Missed The Cut cost 40k, which might not have looked a bargain when he first set foot on the track running fourth at the Craven meeting. But easy wins by eleven and then five lengths in two novice contests brought an opening mark of 95. He was heavily backed, as many of Boughey’s horses are – down to 5-2 on Saturday - and defeat never looked a possibility.
He stormed to the front two furlongs out and stretched the margin to almost five lengths, He’s already at least Listed class as we’ll see tomorrow when the new ratings appear. I reckon he’s a Group horse and maybe a top-level one.
Dettori did get some joy from the returning win of one-time 1,000 Guineas favourite Inspiral in the Coronation Stakes, but most people found his public “calling out” over the Stradivarius ride by joint-trainer John Gosden left a sour taste. You would think the number of winners the prince of racing has ridden for the stable, many at the top level, would have deserved a little more understanding in the face of one less than perfect ride on a horse for whom he has so much affection.
Nobody will ever worry in the fulness of time that Stradivarius, already a three-time Gold Cup winner, did not make it four. It was a shame for owner Bjorn Neilsen and no doubt Gosden senior would have liked another Gold Cup to his name, but that’s racing and for once Ryan rode the socks off Frankie.
Gosden was much more positive about the winning ride on Nashwa – like Inspiral a daughter of Frankel – in yesterday’s Prix De Diane at Chantilly. The Oaks third took the quick turn-around well when winning nicely under Hollie Doyle, who thus became the first female jockey to win a major European Classic.
I must say I have been dismayed all year once it became known of the departure of Tony Nerses from his role as the long-time manager of Nashwa’s owner. Initially for Saleh Al Homaizi, then for the partnership between Saleh and Imad Al Sagar, to Imad’s outright ownership when Al Homaizi bowed out a few years ago
I always believed Tony had a big input in the suggestion that Hollie might become the retained jockey for the team. Now we learn it was Mr Gosden’s idea all along. Just as it was when William Buick first went to the US, no doubt!
- TS
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/Kyprios_MojoStar_Stradivarius_GoldCup_Ascot2022.jpg319830Tony Staffordhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngTony Stafford2022-06-20 07:12:412022-06-20 07:12:41Monday Musings: A Right Royal Week
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