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All-Weather Analysis: Lingfield Racecourse

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It’s time for the fourth course in this all-weather series, this time focusing on Lingfield Park. I have used data from 1st January 2017 to 31st August 2022 which gives us a decent chunk of races to get stuck into. As with the previous pieces my data collection has been solely from the Geegeez Query Tool and therefore all profits / losses have been calculated to Industry Starting Price. We know that we can improve upon those baseline figures with exchange prices or Best Odds Guaranteed and, where appropriate, I will share any useful Betfair SP data.

Running Style at Lingfield

I have written before about Lingfield in regards to running style, so I will be sharing the new data from the past 11 months as well as looking at the long term figures. I have also touched upon the draw at Lingfield in two general AW articles around 2½ years ago, but this article will give a more detailed analysis. For both sections on running style and the draw my focus will be handicaps of eight or more runners only. This is in line with previous research in those areas.

Lingfield 5f Run Style Bias

Let’s start with the minimum trip of 5f. Here are the run style splits in 8+ runner handicaps covering the time since my last article (that is, from 1st Oct ’21 to 31st Aug ’22):

 

 

In this recent time frame there have been only 22 qualifying races so this is a limited sample. The front running stats (L) are not as strong as were the long term figures: from 1st Jan 2017 to 30th Sept 2021 front runners were successful around 24% of the time. However, with a small sample size it is easy to see this type of variance. If we compare the each way stats for front runners over the two time frames we see near identical percentages:

 

 

I am confident the run style picture in 5f handicaps at Lingfield is the same as ever in that the data points to the 5f trip at Lingfield giving front runners the edge; prominent racers are next best, while horses that take a mid pack or further back position early, are at a disadvantage. If you had your crystal ball working in tip top order and had predicted all the front runners going back to 2017, you would have made a profit of £121.88 to £1 level stakes. This equates to a remarkable return of 77p in the £. If on the other hand you had backed all mid div and hold up horses you would have lost £285.42. For every £1 bet on these runners you would have lost 48p. Ouch.

 

Lingfield 6f Run Style Bias

When writing about this course and distance previously, I noted the following ’dip’ in front running performance in 8+ runner handicaps:

 

*up to 30th Sept 2021 only

 

Prior to 2017, the front runners' win percentage had been consistently over 20% (2014 – 28%; 2015 – 22%; 2016 – 23%). That seems to be quite a staggering change from the start of 2018. So how do the last 11 months stack up for front runners in 6f handicaps (8+ runners)?

 

 

These data are much more in tune with the pre-2018 findings, certainly in terms of win percentage. But where does that leave us? To be honest, I’m not sure. Essentially we need to take a longer term view so let me share all run style data stretching from 1/1/17 to 31/8/22:

 

 

Looking over this longer time frame, there does seem to be a run style bias in play here, specifically that front runners and prominent racers have a combined edge over horses that race mid pack, who in turn have the advantage over held up horses. However, the old front running bias that was potent a few years back seems to have dissipated.

 

Lingfield 7f Run Style Bias

Looking firstly at 7f handicap run style data going back to 2017 (8+ runners), the graph below shows win and win & placed (each way) strike rate:

 

 

The win and each way lines correlate neatly adding confidence to a perception of bias towards the front rank of runners early. Front runners edge it over prominent runners in a pattern we are generally used to seeing at shortish trips. If we look at the more recent data from only the past 11 months we get this:

 

 

The sample size is 42 races and, although the front running win stats are below the long-term norm, the each way figures suggest that nothing has really changed.

In essence, this is a track and trip where the closer to the pace a runner is, the better. Hold up horses really do struggle, and in bigger fields they struggle even more so. In 7f handicaps with 12 or more runners (going back to 2017), hold up horses have a win rate of under 3% and and a win & placed (EW) rate of under 15%.

Once we hit races of 1 mile the bias levels out and, from 1m2f upwards, front runners as well as hold up horses are at a disadvantage compared with prominent and midfield racers.

 

Draw at Lingfield

If we look at the racecourse map for Lingfield, with its sweeping downhill home bend and relatively short straight, one may expect lower draws (those drawn on the inside) to hold an edge over the shorter distances:

 

 

Let's see if that is the case.

 

Lingfield 5f Draw Bias

A look at the minimum trip first. It should be noted that field sizes for this distance have a maximum of just 10 runners. Here are the draw splits going back to 2017 for 8+ runner handicaps (124 races):

 

 

Essentially, this is very even and, clearly, lower draws have not had more success from a winning perspective. Bizarrely horses from the highest third of the draw have come out on top here. Looking again at the course map, perhaps those drawn highest are able to run at a tangent to the crown of the bend. If we look at the win and placed stats (EW) we do get a slightly different picture:

 

 

This maybe is a better indicator that in fact a lower draw is preferable, and these stats also correlate with the percentage of rivals beaten (PRB) data. These figures are as follows:

 

 

Taking these three ‘measures’ into account I would say that the draw here is not crucial to the outcome of the race. However, if pushed I would prefer a lower draw given the option.

 

Lingfield 6f Draw Bias

Over this extra furlong the maximum field size increases to 12 and this trip sees horses encounter two left turns. There have been 180 races since 2017 so a strong sample size, relatively at least. Here are the draw splits in terms of win percentage:

 

 

Very level figures once again. So let’s examine the win and placed (EW) data to see if that sheds any more light on proceedings:

 

 

Lower draws are now edging ahead as we saw with the 5f stats. How about the PRB figures?

 

 

A similar pattern to 5f it seems. Nothing mind blowing, but essentially a lower draw is almost certainly a small advantage.

If we combine draw and run style we get the following 6f handicap heat map when looking at PRB figures:

 

 

This shows the difficulty hold up horses have from any draw and also, for horses that race mid-division, a wide draw is a definite negative. This is a key take away in terms of both run style and draw over this trip.

 

Lingfield 7f+ Draw Bias

As we have seen at the shorter distances, draw bias is not going to be a defining feature like it can be at somewhere like Chester, or even some of the other all-weather course/distance combinations. Once we get to 7f and beyond the draw becomes even less of a factor. Hence it’s time to move on and check out some other areas.

For the remainder of this article I will be looking at data for all races (from 1st Jan 2017), not just 8+ runner handicaps.

 

Trainers at Lingfield

Top Lingfield Trainers

With data going back nearly six seasons we have a good amount of info into which to drill down on the performance of trainers at Lingfield. Below are those handlers who secured a win strike rate of 15% or more from a minimum of 100 runs (all race types included):

 

 

Just one trainer has recorded an SP profit: step forward, Roger Varian. Varian has had one winner at 33/1, however, so taking that away he has essentially broken even to SP. To BSP his overall record is +£65.31, while even without the outsider winner this drops to +£15.26. All in all, his record is very solid. Let’s look at some positive angles (none of which include this 33/1 winner which would skew the stats somewhat):

  1. Results when Andrea Atzeni has been Varian’s jockey have been excellent. 12 wins and 5 placed from just 26 runners in total for a profit of £27.70 (ROI +106.5%)
  2. With very short priced runners (evens or less), Varian is 14 wins from 16 (SR 87.5%) for a profit of £6.46 (ROI +40.4%)
  3. His 3yo fillies have secured 11 wins from 39 (SR 28.2%) for a profit of £21.73 (ROI +55.7%)
  4. His 2yo runners have won around 27% of the time returning 15p in the £
  5. He has 9 wins from 16 runners (SR 56.3%) when his runners are top rated by Peter May’s Speed Ratings. These runners have returned just over 38p in the £

Onto A/E indices now – looking for trainers who have exceeded the magic figure of 1.00 which suggests their horses as a whole have been value to follow:

 

 

Four of these trainers appeared in the original table, nine others have joined them. As a general rule, I would suggest these 13 trainers are worth close scrutiny when they send runners to the track.

 

Caution Advised Lingfield Trainers

A look now at the trainers who have struggled at Lingfield in terms of win percentage:

 

 

These trainers are probably worth swerving at Lingfield unless you have a compelling reason to think otherwise. Indeed, looking at all 14 together, their combined record with favourites at Lingfield is a middling 20 wins from 104 (SR 19.23%) for a hefty loss of £41.17 (ROI +39.6%).

 

Lingfield Gender Bias

I have noted a gender bias at each of the all-weather courses I have studied to date. Here are Lingfield’s figures:

 

 

These figures are very similar to those we have seen before. However, a pattern we saw at Chelmsford and Kempton where the gender bias levelled out as horses reached the age of five is not repeated here. What I did notice, however, was that there seems to be a market bias in play at Lingfield. The graph below uses A/E indices to help show this.

 

 

As you can see, female runners from the top three in the betting are very competitive with their male counterparts (F 0.91; M 0.89). However, males start to outperform their female counterparts when we get to 4th to 6th in the betting market (F 0.74; M 0.86), and this continues to 7th or bigger in the market (F 0.61; M 0.71).

It made sense for me to back check Chelmsford and Kempton to see if there were similar findings for this angle, and this is what I discovered.

Kempton’s were:

 

 

And Chelmsford’s stats were:

 

 

Essentially both courses followed a similar pattern to Lingfield. Looking at all three in a chart may make the pattern easier to view so below I've created an A/E ratio of female performance against male performance (dividing the female A/E figure by the male A/E figure in each segment).

 

 

There is roughly parity when looking at the top 3 in the market; then a strong edge for males as we move away from the sharp end of the betting lists. This is something to check out with other courses in future articles.

 

Lingfield Market Factors

Keeping with the market it is time for a look at the win strike rates for different market ranks, starting with favourites and moving down to position 7th or more:

 

 

This pattern is what we would expect. Favourites have lost around 8p in the £ to SP (a 4p loss to BSP), second favourites have lost 10p in the £ (just 1.3p loss to BSP). As a side note, favourites have actually broken even in non-handicap races which is interesting (+4.6% if using BSP).

A look at market rank A/E indices next:

 

 

Lingfield is not a course for outsiders it seems. Horses 7th or bigger in the betting would have lost you 45p for every £ bet to SP; and around 21p at BSP.

Therefore I would personally focus on the front end of the market, more especially the top four in the betting.

Before moving away from the market I thought it would be interesting to see which jockeys have ridden the course well when riding a horse near the top end of the betting. Hence if focusing solely on the top four in the betting, here are the jockeys with an A/E index of 0.95 or more (100 runs minimum to qualify):

 

 

Five jockeys were in profit to SP - Messrs. Keenan, Fanning, Levey, Probert and Marquand -  which is impressive considering only three of the winners from all jockeys combined were a bigger price than 10/1. All five are jockeys I would be happy to see on board one of my horses at the track.

Darragh Keenan’s figures are particularly impressive and, of the 29 trainers he has ridden for under these circumstances, he has won for 16 different ones. Of the 13 trainers he has yet to win for, he has ridden just once for eight of them and no more than three times for any of them. Of all the other jockeys in the table, only Ryan Moore has managed to win for more than half the trainers he has ridden for (24 from 44).

Keenan had just one qualifying ride at the track in 2017 and only four in 2018 (2 wins); since then here are his win / win & placed (EW) percentages:

 

 

These are very decent looking figures and his A/E indices for each year are equally impressive:

 

 

To have achieved an Actual vs Expected figure in excess of 1.20 for each of the past four years is a record not to be sniffed at. I feel Keenan is definitely a jockey to keep on the right side of at Lingfield, especially when riding a horse near the head of the market.

 

Sire Performance at Lingfield

In this section we'll examine some sire data. Here are the top 15 sires in terms of strike rate since 2017. (To qualify - 150 runs or more or more; and must have had runners somewhere in the UK during 2022):

 

 

Some of the usual suspects as one would expect. Dansili, Sharmardal and Dubawi all appeared near the top of the Kempton strike rates as well. Frankel did not make the cut due to having only 108 runners in total but with a strike rate of over 19% he, too, should be mentioned.

In terms of damsires I am going to share just the top four performers in terms of strike rate (you’ll see why):

 

 

Dansili, Sharmardal and Dubawi are right to the fore once again – as punters, we should keep an eye out at Lingfield when a horse or its dam is sired by one of that top trio.

 

Lingfield Horses for Courses

My final port of call is, as always in this series, to look at some horses that have excelled at the course since 2017. To qualify for the list a horse must have won at least four races at the track with a strike rate of 25% or more. Also, each must have raced somewhere in the UK in 2022. Here are the horses that qualify, listed alphabetically. I have included a PRB column too (Percentage of rivals beaten):

 

 

18 horses make the list so keep an eye out for any of these horses over the coming months - perhaps add them to your Query Tool Angles (Horse Name = [these 18], Course = Lingfield, Race Code = Flat AW). They clearly like the track and if some other factors are in their favour they should be regarded as potentially good betting propositions.

 

Lingfield All-Weather Conclusions

There is plenty to take from this article as we have covered several different areas. The main takeaways for me are:

  1. There is a run style bias at distances ranging from 5f to 7f. Over 5f, front runners have a fair edge; at 6f and 7f, front runners and prominent racers combined have a decent advantage
  2. There is little in the draw at any distance. Low may have a tiny edge at 5f and 6f
  3. Roger Varian is a trainer to keep an eye on
  4. Jockey Darragh Keenan has an excellent record when riding a horse from the top four in the betting; also look out for Fanning, Levey, Probert and Marquand under these conditions
  5. Male horses have the edge over female ones; it seems this is much stronger as we get beyond the first three in the market
  6. Market wise, favourites and second favourites are worth a second look; generally speaking, this is a course to stick to the front end of the betting lists
  7. Look out for Dansili, Sharmardal and Dubawi both in terms of being a sire or a damsire

So there we are. There will be plenty of meetings at Lingfield over the coming months and I hope this piece has given you some useful pointers.

- DR

Monday Musings: Charlie the Champ

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After the past two weeks of sales and racing at Newmarket, no wonder Charlie Appleby looked frazzled just after 4.15 p.m. on Saturday as he sat down for a welcome cup of tea, directly opposite my vantage point in a box in the grandstand at Ascot, writes Charlie Appleby.

I said, “You are champion trainer again!”, and the look of brief bewilderment on his face showed that until that point the significance of the outcome of the Qipco Champion Stakes clearly hadn’t properly sunk in.

“Really?”, he asked. I outlined how the £248,000 his Modern Games had earned for second in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes had significantly stretched his lead over close second but overwhelming title favourite, William Haggas. Bayside Boy, a 33-1 shot trained by Roger Varian had got the better of the Godolphin horse while Haggas watched on helpless as he did not have a representative in Europe’s mile championship.

That meant it was all down to the horse of a generation – or so we thought he was.

We had all dutifully turned up at Ascot expecting a coronation. The Queen Consort was there, but it was Baaeed who was supposed to be crowned King of the Turf after what was to be his 11th win from 11 career starts.

So little were his eight rivals considered as serious opposition that he was sent off the 4-1 on favourite. To appreciate the depth of that market confidence, he was entering Frankel territory. His admirers had already attached to him near-Frankel mystique, or even hysteria.

Frankel had been only a marginally shorter price when completing the last of his 14 unbeaten career wins in the same race ten years earlier. He was 11-2 on against five rivals, best of whom were the veteran French gelding Cirrus Des Aigles and his contemporary and old rival, Nathaniel. He beat them readily enough, but it was a performance far less in keeping with his nine prior, mostly spectacular, Group 1 victories.

The question had to be would Baaeed stroll through this final task before following his predecessor to stud? The previous weeks had shown Frankel as the most potent living stallion, comfortably heading for a sire championship with the victory of his daughter Alpinista in the Arc a performance fresh in the memory.

He had also completely dominated the recent Tattersall’s October Yearling Book 1 auction with a string of big-money sales up to the top price of 2.8 million guineas. Nobody in their right mind would believe they could send a mare to him next breeding season for the 2022 fee of £200,000. He’ll be in the Galileo league, probably at least double that figure, neatly spanning the generations from his recently deceased sire and having grown to full maturity and power in the breeding shed.

Her Majesty did the honours in the QE II, presenting Richard Ryan, racing manager of Teme Valley Racing, the prize for Bayside Boy’s unexpected win. Teme Valley were also in action in the Caulfield Cup in Sydney earlier in the day where their Numerian was a close fifth beaten barely a length.

A one-time Joseph O’Brien-trained gelding, Numerian was bred by Joseph’s mother, Anne-Marie O’Brien, and he will no doubt have more paydays in Australia. Last October, State Of Play, trained by Joseph, won the Cox Plate at Moonee Valley in the Teme Valley silks.

Ian Williams, who has had a fruitful connection with Richard Ryan, expressed surprise that his friend had not been able to be in both places at once. “He’ll work it out for next year, no doubt”, said Williams.

The QE II was a tasty if unpredictable aperitif to the main course. Ranged against the Haggas star was the 2021 Derby winner, Adayar, at 6-1, who was fifth in last year’s Champion after a fourth in the Arc, and now back with a bang fresh after that long absence with a smooth win in conditions class at Doncaster. Appleby vowed after that he wanted to take on Baaeed at Ascot. Then there was Sir Michael Stoute’s Bay Bridge, a 10-1 shot and Group-race winner earlier in the year at Sandown but held in his forays into top class since.

Add the Irish pair, Stone Age from Aidan O’Brien and 2021 Classic winner Mac Swiney from the Jim Bolger yard and you have a far from negligible task for the favourite. Baaeed’s form leading up to Ascot had been blemish-free, but whereas Frankel had spaced his 14 races over three racing seasons, the later-developing Baaeed raced only from May last year.

Haggas himself had two back-ups, My Prospero, who despite three wins in four this year and a close third, a neck behind Appleby’s ill-fated Coroebus in the St James’s Palace Stakes at Ascot, was a 22/1 shot. His third runner, Dubai Honour, had less obvious claims, starting 33-1.

If before racing the fear was that the ground would be a potential worry for many horses on the day, the times were very much in line with Chris Stickels’ good to soft, soft in places, assessment. Any attempt to assign Baaeed’s rather stale fourth place behind Bay Bridge, Adayar and stablemate My Prospero to the going therefore makes less sense than simply the cumulative effects of a long, tough season racing at the top level.

The money, expected to be sufficiently in Haggas’ favour via his three contenders, panned out thus. Bay Bridge got £737k for winning, Adayar £279k for second. All three Haggas runners picked up a cheque, but My Prospero’s £139k, Baaeed’s £69k and Dubai Honour’s £17,000 for sixth left them 53 grand short in that single race alone.

Baaed will now retire to stud at a time when Shadwell Farm is starting to resume activity in a buying mode at the sales after the initial selling-off of many hundreds of racing and breeding stock following Hamdan Al-Maktoum’s death. His daughter, Sheikha Hissa, has been a noted presence over here recently and it would have been a fitting send-off for her much-admired father if Baaeed had emulated the feat of Frankel and remained unbeaten.

Racing at the top level is very attritional. The old champ Stradivarius has gone off to stud and his Goodwood Cup conqueror Kyprios bypassed the Champion Long Distance Cup but Trueshan duly turned up and completed a unique hat-trick in the race for Alan King, the Trueshan Owners Group and Hollie Doyle.

The team had been almost inconsolable after the star gelding, in Alan King’s opinion still remembering his ordeal by fast ground and Kyprios at Goodwood, swerved away his chance late on in the Doncaster Cup, going under by a neck to Coltrane. That day, with the trains back to London all screwed by first world problems, I gave a lift to their best-known member, Andrew Gemmell, and his mate Tony Hunt, and all the way back to town Andrew was as despondent as I’ve known him.

The mood was rather different in the winner’s enclosure after Hollie conjured a thrilling rally from her tough, determined ally to avenge that defeat after Coltrane had looked likely to maintain the edge. This time the verdict was a head in the other direction. Two very brave stayers, but Alan King has done wonders to bring his horse back after that chastening experience on the Sussex Downs.

Anyway, to return to the point of the matter. At close of play on Saturday, Appleby had earnings of £5,959,450, a lead of £364,000 give or take a few quid, over Haggas’ £5,595,524. While the title runs to December 31, incongruously with the Jockeys’ title race already done on Saturday, nothing can change its destination.

One major UK flat race remains, next weekend’s Vertem Futurity at Doncaster. Charlie doesn’t think he’ll run anything there, while William doesn’t have an entry, so the £118k will likely go to Coolmore and Ballydoyle who always target the race with a 2,000 Guineas contender. They have plenty of possibles, but their stranglehold could change if Chaldean takes them on. The Dewhurst hero would be the one to beat if Andrew Balding goes for a race in which he has done very well.

In 2021 William Buick battled to the last day of the season before finding Oisin Murphy holding too many aces. This year, with his rival out of the way, it was a cakewalk. Oisin’s return in 2023 will be eagerly awaited. A revived Murphy, three times champion already, would make it a thrilling competition, but if that does not materialise, the prospect is that ever-improving Buick could be in for a long period of supremacy given the power of the Appleby team.

The quality of the trainers at the top of the racing industry in the UK is outstanding. Add Roger Varian to the first two this year and you have three upwardly-mobile Newmarket-based handlers who I’m sure could have succeeded in any other field, as of course could their Berkshire counterpart, Balding. The fact that they have such powerful teams suggests the quartet will be at the forefront of their profession for years to come.

- TS

All-Weather Analysis: Kempton Racecourse

/in /by

After looking at Chelmsford and Dundalk, it’s time to go to Kempton Park, to the west of London. I will be using all-weather data from 1st January 2017 to 31st August 2022 when analysing the Surrey track, giving us the opportunity to examine over 2500 races. I have used the Geegeez Query Tool for all the data collection, and hence all profits / losses have been calculated to Industry Starting Price. However, as I have mentioned numerous times before we will be able to improve upon these figures by using either BOG, early prices or the exchanges.

I have written about Kempton before in regards to running style and also I have shared draw data too. I will look again at both of these here, but there are plenty of other areas that I will be covering in this piece as well. However, let's start with running style.

Running Style at Kempton

When looking at run style, my focus is handicaps, and specifically handicaps with fields of eight or more runners. In an article published on Kempton early this year I looked at run style data up to 30th September 2021. Hence I will be sharing the latest data from the intervening eleven months.

There has only been one qualifying race over 5f so nothing new to share there. Front runners traditionally have a big edge over this minimum distance and, on the rare occasions 5f handicaps are run, this is worth knowing. Time therefore to move to 6f handicaps.

Kempton 6f Run Style Bias

Here are the run style splits in 8+ runner handicaps (1st Oct ’21 to 31st Aug ’22):

 

The sample size of 41 races is reasonable and these recent figures correlate well with the long term data, as this graphical comparison below confirms:

 

This gives us confidence that in 6f handicaps at Kempton front runners do have a good edge; prominent racers in turn have a small edge over horses that race further back early. For any remaining sceptics, let us look at the win and placed percentages across both time frames:

 

The front running stats for both time frames have virtually identical win & placed percentages standing at 47.83% and 47.9% respectively. Likewise, the other three groups have virtually identical percentage figures. This data implies therefore that we can expect roughly half of all front runners over six furlongs will hit the frame.

 

Kempton 7f Run Style Bias

Long-term past results had seen front runners enjoying an edge at this trip also, with a win strike rate of 16.8% from 1/1/17 to 30/9/21. The more recent data (47 races since then) has actually seen this figure drop markedly to 12.1%. Is this is a shift in bias to a more even playing field in terms of run style over 7f at Kempton? I personally don’t think so. A couple of near misses in modest samples can easily see this type of percentage drop.

Also, there are two more numbers to share that suggest the front running bias is essentially the same as it has always been. Firstly, the win & placed percentages for both time frames are very similar at 38.8% and 37.9%. And secondly, I looked at the PRB figures (Percentage of Rivals beaten) – these again were virtually the same over the two time frames:

 

PRB figures are generally a good indicator to see if certain biases exist. Figures on or above 0.55 tend to suggest there is a bias in play.

Traditionally, once we get past 7f, the run style bias at Kempton starts to even out, although even at a mile a front runner is a better betting proposition than a hold up horse.

 

The Draw at Kempton

Onto to draw now. For this area, I will again be sticking to 8+ runner handicaps, I have split all initial data into three equal thirds in order to compare the win percentages within each group. I will dig deeper from there where appropriate. The racecourse map below shows the course is right-handed and that there is an inner and an outer course. Only 5f and 1m2f races are raced on the inner course; all other distances are raced on the outer one.

 

 

Kempton 5f Draw Bias

It was noted earlier in the article that there has been just one 5f handicap with 8+ runners in the past year. There seems to be a general policy at the track to move away from 5f races with the tight inner loop making it very difficult for later running types. I will share the third of the draw splits going back to 1/1/17:

 

 

There is a small edge to lower drawn horses according to these figures. Another measure of draw bias is to look at the percentage of rivals beaten (PRB). These figures are as follows:

 

 

These figures suggest the bias may be stronger than first thought. However, with so few races these days we will need to be patient to try and utilise any bias, if indeed we can at all. [Editor's note: this is a 5f handicap carded next Tuesday, 18th October]

 

Kempton 6f Draw Bias

Six furlong handicaps are abundant at Kempton. We can expect around fifty 8+ runner handicaps a year so we have plenty of data to play with. Detailed draw bias stats at this course and distance appeared in an article I wrote earlier this year, where in it I placed Kempton over 6f as being the 6th strongest draw bias in the UK/Ireland. What I did not do in that piece though was look at the actual draw splits by thirds so here they are now:

 

 

Low draws are definitely best here and higher drawn runners struggle. The PRB figures correlate strongly as we can see:

 

 

These 6f races are ones I often get involved in as we have potential draw and a run style biases to utilise.

Before moving on I thought it prudent to look at the 2022 data to check the low draw bias is still in play. It certainly seems that way with the PRB figure for the bottom 'third' at 0.58 with 12 of the 22 races (54.5%) going to that section. A final stat to share is that, in 2022, horses drawn 9 or higher are 0 from 44 with just 5 placed runs.

 

Kempton 7f Draw Bias

The 7f distance also appeared in the same top 10 biases article, in 8th place. However, in 2022 the bias has appeared less potent for whatever reason. In the 33 qualifying races so far in 2022, only ten have been won by the bottom third of the draw, with 12 wins for middle and 11 for high, en extremely even split. The PRB figures are also more even at 0.51 (low), 0.52 (middle) and 0.47 (high). The long term PRB figure for lowest drawn horses is 0.55 so the question is, has there been a slight change going on? I am guessing probably not: race samples of 33 are relatively modest when digging into the draw. It will be interesting to see how things pan out over 7f in the run up to Christmas, but I would suggest a little caution for the time being, just in case a change is afoot.

 

Kempton 1 Mile Draw Bias

Here are the draw splits for mile trip (2017-2022):

 

 

Higher drawn horses look to be at a very slight disadvantage. The PRB figures suggest this disadvantage is definitely there, and maybe stronger than the win% draw splits imply:

 

 

All in all, this is not a Kempton distance where the draw plays a big part for me personally when analysing a race. However, there is a red flag over any horse I’m keen on when it is drawn in double figures.

Kempton Draw Conclusions

As far as draw conclusions go, the 6f trip is one to get stuck into draw-wise with low draws best; hopefully the 7f one will revert to ‘type’ also this winter. Keep an eye out for any of those rare 5f handicaps where low draws should be advantageous, and over a mile be a little wary of very high drawn horses.

For the remainder of the article I will be using ALL race data, not just 8+ runner handicaps. Time now to look at trainers.

 

Trainers at Kempton

With data going back to 2017 we have an excellent bucket into which to drill down on the performance of trainers at Kempton. This first table shows the trainers who have secured a win strike rate of 15% or more from a minimum of 100 runs (ALL race types included):

 

 

Charlie Appleby tops the list but, despite his outstanding win rate - better than one in three - he has still made a loss to SP of over 18 pence in the £. Ouch.

Three yards are in profit and I want to look at the record of one of those, namely that of the Charltons'. Their record at Kempton is excellent; only one big priced winner (33/1) and looking at their bigger priced runners as a whole, those priced 16/1 or bigger have secured that solitary win from 92 attempts. This equates to a loss of £58.00 (ROI -63%). At the pointy end, Charlton runners priced 14/1 or shorter have provided 57 winners from 212 bets (SR 26.9%) for a healthy profit of £90.19 (ROI +42.5%).

The stable has been relatively consistent over the years, too, as these next two graphs show. Firstly a look at winning data:

 

 

Other than the blip in 2018, the remaining years have been very solid in terms of win strike rate. The A/E indices for each year correlate well too:

 

 

Five of the six years are above the magic 1.00 Actual vs Expected (A/E), suggesting Charlton runners have been good value in every year bar 2018.

Here are some additional Kempton facts for Harry and Roger Charlton:

  1. The handicap win strike rate is over 24%; their non handicap figure stands at just under 15%.
  2. His male runners have comfortably outperformed females with a win rate of 22.2% compared with 14.3%. Males have secured returns of 21p in the £, while fillies/mares have lost just under 6p in the £.
  3. Charlton favourites have won 51% of races (25 wins from 49) for a profit of £14.06 (ROI +28.7%). Second favourites have also been profitable to the tune of 14p in the £.
  4. From a run style perspective 31% of front runners have won, 29% of prominent runners have won, but there has been just 7.6% success for hold up horses. (Mid div horses won 15.6%).

 

All Charlton stable runners deserve close attention, especially those who race in handicaps. Look out for male runners, too, and steer clear of any big prices: they do occasionally win but have been expensive to follow overall. One final Charlton fact to share is that 24 different jockeys have had at least two rides for the stable at Kempton and 19 of them have registered at least one win.

Before moving on let us focus on horses from the top three in the betting and the trainers who have had the best A/E indices with those fancied runners (50 runs or more to qualify):

 

 

It's good to see Mick Appleby, John Butler, Simon Dow and William Knight in there amongst some bigger names; and it is worth noting that eight of the ten trainers from the group above made a profit to SP.

This type of article can only scratch the surface when it comes to trainer angles so for readers interested in digging further into Kempton trainer performance, the Geegeez Query Tool that I have used here is simple to use and very powerful. Not only that, you can test numerous angles very quickly. It is accessible from the menu link under the 'tools' menu item at the top of this - and almost every - page.

 

Kempton Gender bias

Research I undertook for the Chelmsford and Dundalk articles pointed towards a slight bias toward male runners over females. We know this bias tends to be slightly stronger on the all-weather, but it does exist on the turf, too. Here are the splits for Kempton:

 

 

Again, there is a definite edge here to male horses, similar to what we have seen at previous all-weather tracks.

Let's look at whether the age of horse has any relevance when it comes to the gender of the horse:

 

 

What is interesting is that we have a virtually identical age bias pattern to the one we saw at Chelmsford. There, males outperformed females at 2, 3 and 4 years old, but as the horses got older it seemed to level out. It happens, or at least has happened, at Kempton too.

The A/E indices react in the same way as the graph below shows:

 

 

Just because two courses portray a similar looking age/gender bias we cannot be sure this is a pattern that will repeated at other all weather courses. Indeed Dundalk’s stats did not really correlate with these two UK tracks. However, maybe the exact nature of the individual surface is the important factor here. Unfortunately, as with some research findings, I currently cannot give you an answer that I’m fully satisfied with. I will be keeping an eye on the results over the next few months to see whether same pattern continues or dissipates.

 

Market factors at Kempton

It's time for a look at the win strike rates for different positions in the betting, starting with favourites and moving down to position 8th or lower in the market:

 

 

The chart shows the kind of sliding scale we'd expect to see, and the win percentage for favourites is around the average for all UK courses. Favourites have lost roughly 8p in the £ to SP which equates to a loss of 3p in the £ to BSP; second favourites have lost around 10p in the £ to SP which reduces to a 2p in the £ loss to BSP. The top two in the betting therefore have a pretty decent record at Kempton and this is reflected in the A/E indices:

 

 

Favourites have the highest A/E index at 0.94; second favourites the joint second best at 0.90.

All favourites that were also top rated on the Peter May speed ratings (published in the 'SR' column on geegeez racecards) actually made a profit to SP, recording 256 wins from 654 runners (SR 39.1%) for a profit of £1.85 (ROI +0.28%). OK, essentially this is a breakeven situation but, even so, that is still very impressive from a ratings set. One definitely needs to note horses top rated by the SR figures when they happen to be favourite at Kempton.

 

Sire performance at Kempton

Here are the top 20 sires in terms of strike rate at Kempton since 2017 (150 runs or more to qualify; and must have had runners in 2022):

 

 

Dubawi led the Chelmsford stats in terms of sire strike rates, and has repeated the feat here; but, despite winning over 20% of races, losses have been steep at 44p in the £.

Two sires that I am immediately drawn to in the table above are Lethal Force and Dutch Art. Both sires had good A/E indices at Chelmsford and they have repeated the dose here with Lethal Force at 1.20 and Dutch Art at 1.02. Not only that, both have edged into SP profit. There are nine other sires in the table that have A/E indices of 1.00 or more and these sires are also worth keeping an eye on.

I did look briefly at damsire data and noted that Singspiel currently has the best win strike rate at 15.5% and with an A/E index of 1.13. Only three other damsires have A/E indices of 1.00 or above: Royal Applause (1.04), Red Ransom (1.00) and Selkirk (1.00).

 

Kempton 'Horses for courses'

My final port of call was to look at some horses that have excelled at Kempton since 2017. To qualify for the list they must have won at least four races at the track with an overall course strike rate of 25% or more. Further, they must have raced somewhere in the UK in 2022. Here are the horses that qualified. I have included a PRB column too (Percentage of rivals beaten):

 

 

Eight-time course winner Soar Above is an interesting horse because he clearly loves Kempton, but away from the Sunbury track his record is poor. Kempton is a right-handed track and we can see how successful he has been there – he has also been placed five times along with those eight wins. Away from Kempton, he has raced only on left-handed or straight tracks and, combining these results, he's had just one win and two placed efforts from 18 starts. This includes 0 from 7 on other all-weather tracks (all left-handed). Perhaps Soar Above is an example of a horse that simply prefers running right-handed. Some horses definitely are more suited to turning one way than the other, though I have generally seen it more in National Hunt racing: probably the most famous example was Desert Orchid, who also had a preference for right-handed turns.

So there we have it. Kempton is a course with betting possibilities across the board:

- Favourites have quite a solid record, especially when top rated by Peter May’s SR figures.

- There are also a few stables to potentially keep on the right side of, perhaps notably the Charlton yard.

- Male horses should generally take preference over female ones as is the norm on the sand.

- There are some distances with an edge to lower draws (6f especially).

- There are some distances where front runners have a good edge (5f-7f).

- The 6f trip is the main one to concentrate on from a draw and run style perspective.

 

Let me finish then by sharing a PRB heat map overlaying draw thirds and run styles for 8+ runner 6f handicaps at Kempton since 2017:

 

 

 

This neatly demonstrates the strength of both biases. A low drawn horse has a definite edge unless it is held up; front runners enjoy huge success regardless of draw position. These heat maps can be found in the Draw Analyser and for each individual race in the daily racecards. It is a really useful tool to get a feel for any such biases. (Be careful, though, when looking at the Draw Analyser with all-weather courses – you need to change the going setting to incorporate not just ‘standard’ but cover all required going options).

- DR

 

Monday Musings: Almost, but not quite, done

/in /by

By this time next week it will all just about be done, writes Tony Stafford. The 2022 flat limps on for another three weeks after Saturday’s Champions Day at Ascot, but William Buick will have collected his first Champion Jockey trophy and Baaeed will probably have brought his career-ending tally to 11 from 11 – three behind Frankel – and be ready for a glittering career as a stallion.

If we thought the deaths in recent times of Prince Khalid Abdullah, Frankel’s owner-breeder, or Hamdan Al-Maktoum, who never lived to see his best-ever horse race, would mean a curtailment of two of the three giant Arab racing and breeding teams, evidence last week in Newmarket, both on the track and at the yearling sales, would have confounded that view.

Much was made of the first sales purchase by Hamdan’s daughter, Sheikha Hissa, of an expensive yearling; and then on Saturday, Chaldean, bought as a yearling by Prince Khalid’s successors for 550,000gns from Whitsbury Manor, won the Dewhurst Stakes. That made it four wins in five career starts and enough to stake his claim as champion juvenile of the year.

As Ryan Moore prepared to ride Coolmore’s Aesop’s Fables in that race he made little secret of the fact he expected the other Juddmonte contender, the home-bred Nostrum, trained by Sir Michael Stoute, to prevail.

Ryan would have been surprised had he been in the stands rather than on the back of the Aidan O’Brien runner on his way to the start to see the lack of confidence in Nostrum in the face of sustained support for Chaldean. The Andrew Balding horse was ridden by 51-year-old Frankie Dettori, able to take advantage of the Group 1 meeting exemption from on-going riding bans.

The Italian had been on board when Chaldean won the Group 2 Champagne at Doncaster in emphatic fashion last time out and he must have been worrying that he might not be fit to take the ride when he made an unscheduled flying dismount three furlongs from home in the opening Zetland Stakes: his Gosden-trained ride, Liftoff, clipped heels and fell. Rarely has there been a more appropriately named casualty.

Frankie said as he was still hot after his exertions in the big race he felt all right, but that those half-century old bones might be suffering a bit the following morning. Reprieved as he was, once he drove Chaldean to the front after a furlong, he was never going to let go, quickly seeing off Nostrum and Richard Kingscote before the last furlong. Here, Royal Scotsman proved a more resolute challenger, and the winning margin over the Jim Crowley-partnered and Paul and Oliver Cole trainee was just a head.

While the three days of Tattersalls Book 1 were never dull, it was still very much a private party between Godolphin and Coolmore, only relaxed to let in the next level of buyers when they condescended to leave the stage to the rest.

Suffice to say that the near 400 yearlings that found new owners over the piece, did so at an average of almost 300,000gns with plenty exceeding a million quid and one at £2.8 million. The total aggregate was £125 million. Tatts can count themselves satisfied at their commission on that first part; look forward to a less dramatic but also far from negligible Book 2, today to Wednesday, leaving Books 3 and 4 to mere mortals in the second half of the week.

Of course, then we have the December Sale, featuring top-class racing and breeding fillies and mares at the end of next month and into the first days of December. One of the busier young men at the sale last week was Ollie Sangster, son of Ben and Lucy and grandson of the late Robert.

He was seeking out potential owners and yearlings to join in his new venture training from one of the smaller yards at the spectacular Manton Estate, previously owned by his grandfather and, on his death, his sons. Now the property of Martyn Meade, who trains there in conjunction with his son Freddie at one end of the farm, while Brian Meehan continues having been on site for two decades, Ollie will have use of those wonderful downland gallops. As the backdrop to his entire life so far, no wonder he is excited at the prospect.

Ollie has done all sorts of jobs in the racing and breeding business considering his relative youth, but the last three years have brought plenty of excitement as he owns a minor share in the top-class filly Saffron Beach.

He shares the Jane Chapple-Hyam-trained four-year-old with his mother and James Wigan. It’s a real family affair as Jane is his step-aunt. Congratulating him on managing to get a piece of such a smart filly, he said, “I was in her from the start.”

The records show Saffron Beach changed hands as a foal for 55,000gns and since then she has won six of her 13 starts, two at Group 1 level and total earnings of £805,000. A daughter of the exciting young sire New Bay, she has been a late addition to the December sale and I reckon she is guaranteed to be one of the most desired lots on offer, almost certainly well into seven figures.

Ollie’s father Ben has, over the past few years, re-centred his Swettenham Stud breeding interests close to Manton House which remains his family home. He hopes that if Ollie’s training project takes off, he might have to find a new base for the mares and young stock.

A final note on the Newmarket Future Champions meeting which, apart from high-class two-year-old races, also included a cash-depleted Cesarewitch. Club Godolphin stepped in as sponsors otherwise what would it have been worth? As it was, £103,000 to the winner for such a major race was a disgrace, considering that was only one-third the amount the winner received four years previously.

There was yet another Irish winner, but this time not for Willie Mullins who had switched his better stayers to the Irish Cesarewitch the weekend before. Handicap ace and recently banned and reinstated Charles Byrnes was successful with the 147-rated hurdler Run For Oscar, who strolled home under David Egan more than three lengths to the good from the Hughie Morrison pair of Vino Victrix and star hurdler Not So Sleepy, who was adding a third place to two fourths in 2019 and 2020.

They provided a joint 72 grand to the Morrison owners. Second and third in 2018 would have brought 138k, almost twice as much. Only 21 horses, rather than a ballot-requiring 32, bothered to turn up, while the reinvigorated Irish Cesarewitch, worth seven times as much as last year, carried a similar payout to the winner as ours had been in 2018. Willie Mullins didn’t win it, that race going to Aidan and the three-year-old Waterville, who got up late to beat the Mullins pair Echoes in Rain and Lot Of Joy.

With the wonderful Kyprios apparently done for now, and Stradivarius finished – don’t worry Bjorn Neilsen isn’t looking for food banks yet, he sold a Frankel yearling last week for 2 million gns – Trueshan is left as the top candidate for the British Champions Long Distance Cup. At least, that was, until Aidan decided against running pre-race favourite Waterville at Newmarket and now has Ascot in mind for the improving young stayer.

While the jockeys’ title race finishes at Ascot, the trainers’ championship continues to the end of the year. But, the Vertem Futurity the following weekend at Doncaster apart, all the action for the big stables will be overseas.

Charlie Appleby’s remarkable winning spree in recent weeks has got him back a few quid in front of William Haggas. We can expect Baaeed to pick up the £737k for the Champion Stakes but if last year’s Derby winner can follow him home and Modern Games can pick up the £623k in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes – Inspriral will be tough of course – it might not be quite all over. It probably is though, in all consciousness!

- TS

Roving Reports: Slings and Arrows

/in /by

We are coming to the end of the Flat season and, for many of the on-course workmen, that means the work, whilst not exactly drying up, certainly shrinks in size, writes David Massey. At the risk of getting into politics, a tough winter lies ahead for plenty of them and, with meetings already being lost to hard ground, the sooner the rain comes, the better.

I'm one of the luckier ones in so much as I've got the writing if meetings are abandoned, but all the same, a change in the weather is much needed if we are to get back to anything like a normal fixture schedule. Replacing a lost Ludlow with Chelmsford one night might keep the shops happy, but it's hardly a like for like.

Anyway, I digress. I was due to work at Warwick for their season opener a couple of weeks ago, on this occasion writing up some paddock notes; but the funeral of the Queen saw racing cancelled on the day. That gave me time to study Tuesday's Warwick card in some detail, and I duly turned up at the meeting with great confidence that I had it all worked out.

The afternoon went like this: the stone cold place lay I had in the first almost won, the paddock standout in the second couldn't jump for toffee, the back-to-lay in the third fell at the second. The paddock pick in the fourth went lame and pulled up. No bet in the next two races and the high point of the day was my each-way third in the bumper. We held a two minute silence at Southwell the next day, not for those we have lost, but for the amount of money I managed to do in in one afternoon.

It really is amazing how many times I approach a meeting thinking I've all the winners, only to watch the money drain away as I go on the Chevy. The more I try the worse it gets. You have to be true to yourself and not change tack, because you might miss a good-priced winner you fancy if you start (literally) changing horses in midstream, so you stick to the plan. On this occasion, it did not work, and the drive home consisted of trying to justify my selections to myself whilst listening to PM on Radio 4.

Anyway, on to Southwell the next night, and a shift for S&D. I always enjoy an evening at Southwell, even if, as it did here, it rains, as everyone knows everyone else and you're guaranteed a few laughs. We normally take the mickey out of Stan, a fellow worker for Barry Johnson and an ardent Man U supporter, as he's convinced they'll win the league this year (actually, he's convinced every year). I write this just as his team had their backsides handed to them by their City rivals at the weekend; I am very much looking forward to seeing Stanley later this evening.

My next stop is Haydock on the Friday. After the Warwick disaster, and confidence at a low ebb, I have few expectations the afternoon will be any good. Again, I'm writing up paddock notes. Haydock has a wonderful paddock, one of the best in my opinion, with plenty of viewing spots under the trees, and as it is of such a size you can really compare horses with one another.

The first favourite, Rogue Spirit, sweats up very badly and starts misbehaving. It gets a black mark from me and I decide to lay it. Rogue Spirit then proceeds to go down to the start like a dream and come back even better, winning an easy two lengths. Here we go again... Or do we?

I have the next down to two on paddock looks and of the two, I just prefer Helm Rock. A quick look at his form says he will enjoy the softer underfoot conditions and I invest each-way. The relief when he wins at 8-1 cannot be understated. In the next, Double Cherry gets a near-perfect score on fitness and coat from me. He looks outstanding. I've already backed Speycaster but I'm happy to have another good each-way bet on Double Cherry. After getting hampered a furlong out I'm cursing my luck as it looks like he's got the wrong end of the photo, but the slow-mo tells me otherwise. My luck is changing, and it's about time!

There's no bet in the next but I really like the Clive Cox newcomer on looks in the maiden, and go in again at 4-1. When he wins, I'm getting myself right back in it, and then, oh the pain, as my decent each-way bet on Red Derek is done in the final few strides by Pentland Hills. Never mind, this has been a good day, and the Warwick disaster is but a distant memory. Remember, kids - when you're backing winner after winner, you're never as good as you think you are, but when you're backing loser after loser, you're never as bad as you think you are either.

A day's work on the pitch at Chester for their final day of the season follows. It's absolutely mobbed, good money all day, but we (and indeed, quite a few of the books) take a cash hit when the owner backs his Emiyn down the line. Suffice to say when it wins at 16-1, he needs a bag to carry all the readies around in. Fair play to him.

One thing I really wish Chester would sort out is their phone signal, and Wi-Fi. For a track that prides itself on customer experience, it really is very poor. I get a better signal at Fakenham, and, like Yarmouth, that's three and a half hours from anywhere.

Last Thursday, following a 3-hour drive down the M6 (I'd been in Blackpool on the Wednesday night, Morrissey in concert at the Opera House, superb gig) I once again found myself at Warwick. From five paddock picks, four of them won. I suppose that's hardly surprising, given six of the seven favourites won but all the same, it's nice to know your eyesight isn't yet requiring of another trip to Specsavers.

The next couple of weeks are going to be quiet on the work front, as the good lady turns 50 next week and we're off to Cornwall for some fun and frolics with a few friends. We will be taking Champions Day in on the way back though, so I'll let you know how that goes. You might be there, of course, so please say hello if you see us. What then? Ah, Cheltenham, my old friend, it's so good to see you again...

- DM

Monday Musings: Sir Mark’s Arc

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It was good enough to chat to Sir Mark Prescott and Kirsten Rausing in the sunshine of York before and after Alpinista’s fifth consecutive Group 1 success back in the summer, when she beat the gallant Oaks winner, Tuesday, in the Yorkshire Oaks, writes Tony Stafford. Yesterday I contentedly sat at home watching her battling performance in holding off a series of strong challengers up the last 200 metres to collect the £2.4 million first prize in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe.

The press and media were queueing up again, on an awful Parisian autumn afternoon to catch the now emotional Sir Mark – yes, he does sometimes let that relaxed urbane countenance slip! This tender side, in full view if not quite revealing actual tears, followed the victory of the same grey five-year-old mare, as she equalled a record that had stood from 11 years before the popular Baronet was born.

It was in 1937 that Corrida had been the last of her age and sex to win a race that then was only 17 years into its history.  Now the Arc is rightly acknowledged as Europe’s championship race. Sir Mark, a trainer for 52 years, plotted Alpinista’s path to greatness with the same patience that for half a century he has set up maiden three-year-olds to win strings of races as they improve and learn on the job, starting low and frequently ending high.

In her case, Alpinista didn’t start low at all, winning on her first juvenile start at Epsom’s August meeting. That alone should have told us she was different. Quickly up to stakes company, although finishing only sixth in a Goodwood Group 3 and then filling fourth in a Listed race at Longchamp, her first of many overseas sorties, on her final juvenile start.

Sir Mark gave her a reappearance on July 20, 2020, no doubt because Covid had not only interrupted the early part of that season for everyone on the racecourse but inevitably delayed all the time-honoured training regime he had made second nature over the decades.

But having finished fourth in that Listed race, this time at Vichy, she made up for lost time with a victory at the same level at Salisbury before outperforming her 33-1 odds when second to the Oaks winner, Love, in the Yorkshire Oaks.

From then, there has only been one more defeat, next time in the Group 3 Princess Royal Stakes behind Antonia De Vega at Newmarket, her final three-year-old start.

Thereafter, Sir Mark has produced a two-season, eight-race unbeaten sequence that could have been modelled on some of his more celebrated handicap coups, except that the last six of the eight have been at Group 1 level.

Last year involved a late summer/autumn German Group 1 hat-trick starting with a defeat of future 2021 Arc winner Torquator Tasso in Hoppegarten, a race of which Prescott modestly said her rival was “unlucky in running”. There was no hard luck story yesterday, though, as Torquator Tasso was brought with a perfect run down the outside by Frankie Dettori, but Luke Morris and his grey co-conspiratress were never contemplating defeat.

Afterwards, Prescott said that Morris had been with him for 12 years, a span that probably leaves him at least as long to go to match George Duffield. There can be few occupations anywhere in this uncertain world with the career security of Heath House’s stable jockey. Or indeed as the quiet assistant trainer William Butler might ruefully opine, “Nor assistant to Sir Mark!”

That self-effacing gentleman at least is not threatened in his post, but it reminds me of an exchange at the Daily Telegraph when a colleague, anxious to know what would happen when his department boss – he was the deputy - was leaving in the coming weeks. The Sports Editor, said, “Don’t worry old boy, your present position is assured!”

It embarrasses me (a little) to say he took the hint and quickly left and, a few short months later, I was appointed Racing Editor since which time it’s all gone downhill!

Alpinista was one of six UK-trained winners on the two-day Longchamp card with three on the opening day, added to by another three yesterday. That tally does not include Aidan O’Brien’s Kyprios, who, I must say, put up the best performance I have ever seen from a flat-race stayer.

In the two-and-half mile Prix Du Cadran, the previous winner of the Gold Cup at Ascot, Goodwood Cup and Irish St Leger, a Galileo colt, cantered along for the first two miles of the journey, as first Quickthorn (briefly, but alas with little conviction) and then Lismore set the pace.

By the turn in, the Coolmore runner had taken the lead totally untroubled and started to draw away inexorably. There was still more than a furlong to go when he began to find it all so boring and showed a liking for the fans on the stands rail, so in the manner of the 2014 2000 Guineas winner, Night of Thunder, he thought he would come and say “Bonjour” to the Turfistes that side.

It’s easy to overstate the amount of ground conceded by such a manoeuvre, but it caused Ryan Moore a degree of discomfort for a while. Not to worry, he still had a full 20 lengths to spare passing the post, and probably three or more gears that Ryan hadn’t troubled to utilise.

Having seen off now retired Stradivarius and Trueshan at Goodwood, Aidan and the boys will be aiming at shorter rather than keep to the stayers but, still only four, it will be tempting to call in at Royal Ascot for the next few Gold Cups. Yeats was great; Stradivarius was very good for a long time, but this is a late-in-career phenomenon to add to the Galileo legend.

Having watched Luxembourg struggle in the soft ground yesterday, I wonder if Aidan is already thinking “next year’s Arc” for a Classic winner, albeit the Irish St Leger. He is improving so quickly the problem will be just which demanding prizes they challenge for.

*

It was good to have ITV cover the races up until the Arc and Sky Sports Racing the subsequent events, but when comparing what came up on those screens, with results as published in the Racing Post, there was generally a pattern to discern. Not in every case, but mostly, the punters watching on the box will have expected being paid out on those prices and will probably have been disappointed at what the bookies returned them.

The most blatant example on a day when Andre Fabre, three months my senior whereas Sir Mark is two years less a day younger than me, almost single-handedly kept the home fires burning with two Group 1 victories. His Jean-Luc Lagardere winner Belbek was 16-1 or thereabouts in both versions. Contrastingly, after his Place Du Carroussel finished strongly to deny Nashwa and Hollie Doyle in the Prix de l’Opera, Sky Sports Racing flashed up 66/1, but if you found her, the Post says she was a 41-1 chance.

Hollie got her revenge a little later when Richard Fahey’s The Platinum Queen became the first two-year-old filly to win the Prix de l’Abbaye de Longchamp since the celebrated sprinter Sigy in 1978 after a fine performance by horse and rider. Her 9-4 on the box, was as low as 7-5 with the firms. Alpinista was only a shade shorter in the Post whereas Kinross and Frankie won the Foret at only 11/8. Don’t say the bookies never show mercy – they returned 17-10.

On Saturday, there was nothing to choose between 7-10 (Post) and 4-7 (SSR)about Kyprios while Anmaat’s 23-10 was better than the 15-8 from the broadcaster. There was a big disparity though in the 13-5 about William Haggas’ Sea La Rosa and the telly’s 7-2 in the Royallieu. Then again, with so many well-backed UK-trained winners, they must have been onto something of a hiding.

Now all the big players will come back to the UK, making the annual trek to the sales at Tattersalls in Newmarket to start inspecting the choice Book 1 offerings that will be going through the ring and will be their prime targets as they seek to re-stock.

I doubt Tatts will be worrying about their gas and electricity bills with 5%, the guineas rather than pounds, if you are too young to know, commission on every sale and the prospect of many millions of pounds, euro, dollars, yen and whatever else you care to mention, sure to change hands. It’s worth a watch, Tuesday to Thursday, to see exciting bidding, big-name owners and trainers and, like me, you can keep yourself warm at someone else’s expense.  Or else you can watch it at home online, but then you’ll be footing the bill!

- TS

2022 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe Preview, Tips

/in , /by

The first Sunday in October is the traditional date for Europe's middle distance Championship race, the Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe. Run at Longchamp over a mile and a half (2400 metres if you prefer) the race invariably cements the reputation of a champion elect or elevates the status of a hitherto underrated contender.

Consider last year, when Torquator Tasso was considered a shock winner by most measures, including the betting - he returned 72/1 on the French tote - but he had already been first or second in five Group 1 races! That quintet included a G1 score in the Grosser Preis von Baden on his prior start. Since his Arc glory day, TT has run second in both the G1 King George at Ascot and the Grosser Preis von Baden, missing by just a head in the latter.

In 2020, Sottsass, a dual Group 1 winner including when claiming the 2019 French Derby, prevailed on his second Arc attempt; he'd been third the year before having prepped with a win in the G2 Prix Niel: that brace of 2019 contests were his only other races at twelve furlongs.

And so it goes, back through Waldgeist, a triple G1 winner; the brilliant queen, Enable, twice; double G1 winner Found (who was also second in top grade a remarkable nine times before, and once after, her Arc win); Derby, Eclipse and Irish Champion victor, Golden Horn; and twice prior to that the magnificent mare, Treve. There are simply no poor winners of the race, though some are bigger prices hiding in plain sight.

Sottsass was 7/1, Waldgeist 13/1, Treve 11/1 in her second Arc, and before her, Solemia was 33/1, and Danedream 20/1. In other words, it's a race that can be played at a price if that's your thing. And fillies have a great record in the Arc, too: between 2011 and 2018, seven of the eight Arcs were won by fillies and, in the three renewals since, fillies have run second in two of them.

Part of this performance by females can be attributed to weight concessions: three-year-old fillies receive four pounds from three-year-old colts and seven pounds from older fillies and mares; and they receive ten pounds from older colts.

With Baaeed now a confirmed non-runner, the market has begun to settle and a deep list of possibles, even without the top rated horse in Europe, is assembling. We'll get to the form in a minute, but first a brief squint at recent history...

Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe Draw Bias

What about the draw in the Arc, of which much is usually made? Below are the stall positions of the first six home since 2008. Note that in 2016 and 2017, the race was staged at Chantilly while Longchamp was being renovated.

 

Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe draw bias? First six home stall numbers

Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe draw bias? First six home stall numbers

 

Eleven horses have made the frame from the inside three stalls in the twelve Longchamp renewals sampled above. That excludes the Chantilly 'combination Ted Rogers' (remember Dusty Bin?!) in 2017. But a horse from the outside three stalls has won three times, too, again excluding Chantilly. So is too much emphasis put on the stalls lottery?

Perhaps not, at least not in terms of Arc winners. As the little table below illustrates, those housed in the lower half of the stalls have won nine of the past dozen Longchamp Arcs: 75% of them. But the minor podium spots have been equally divided on both steps; and with many/most bookies paying four places at least in the days leading up to Arc Sunday, a high draw has been no impediment to finishing on the ticket.

 

Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe draw: first four home, high or low?

 

Summing the top four positions into high/low gives a 25-23 verdict in favour of low, though of course the most material difference is in the win row.

I hope it goes without saying that this is a tiny, just about meaningless, sample size so caution is advised for all that trigonometry dictates a horse drawn low will travel less distance and should, with a clear run, therefore have a small edge, all other things being equal (which they never are!)

 

Arc Winning Nation

Looking at those same 14 renewals of the Arc from a nationality perspective, a few slightly surprising points emerge. The scorecard is as follows:

France 6
UK 4 (3 for John Gosden)
Ireland 2 (1 for Aidan O'Brien)
Germany 2

It was a bit of a shock, to me at least, that Ireland's haul in recent times has been so 'normal' given the volume of high class middle distance horses from that nation. And, particularly, that within those figures, Aidan O'Brien's record is just, well, good rather than excellent. Here is APOB's tale of the tape, and I've included 2007 because it's kind of relevant as you'll see:

2021: Snowfall 19/5 6th
2020: No runner
2019: Japan 9/1 4th, Magical 19/1 5th
2018: Capri 25/1 5th, Kew Gardens 8/1 7th, Nelson 100/1 8th, Magical 40/1 10th, Hunting Horn 40/1 16th
2017: Order of St George 8/1 4th, Idaho 25/1 8th, Winter 9/1 9th, Seventh Heaven 50/1 14th, Capri 20/1 17th
2016: FOUND 6/1 1st, Highland Reel 20/1 2nd, Order of St George 14/1 3rd
2015: Found 18/1 9th, Tapestry 33/1 16th
2014: Ruler of the World 12/1 9th, Tapestry 14/1 13th, Chicquita 40/1 15th
2013: Ruler of the World 7/1 7th, Leading Light 10/1 12th
2012: Camelot 2/1 7th, St Nicholas Abbey 14/1, Ernest Hemingway 150/1 16th, Robin Hood 500/1 18th
2011: So You Think 9/2 4th, St Nicholas Abbey 33/1 5th, Treasure Beach 28/1 14th
2010: Fame And Glory 9/2 5th, Cape Blanco 11/1 13th, Midas Touch 40/1 17th
2009: Fame And Glory 6/1 6th, Grand Ducal 300/1 17th, Cornish 500/1 18th
2008: Soldier of Fortune 9/2 3rd, Duke of Marmalade 4/1 7th, Red Rock Canyon 250/1 16th
2007: DYLAN THOMAS 11/2 1st, Soldier of Fortune 10/3 5th, Yellowstone 150/1 11th, Song of Hiawatha 150/1 12th

In fact, Aidan has won the Arc only twice, in 2007 and in 2016 when he had an incredible clean sweep of the medal placings. Aside from that, he has just one further top three finish since 2007, which was Soldier Of Fortune's third place in 2008. When you look at the quality he has aimed, and the prices at which some were sent off, that's not the strongest pointer to Luxembourg's chance. Nor, naturally, will it prevent Luxembourg from winning if he's good enough: it didn't stop Found or Dylan Thomas after all. But at the prices...

Meanwhile, Germany has 20/1 and 72/1 winners for its brace in the sample period. That, according to my fag packet calculations, from just eleven runners. Of the nine non-winners, It's Gino dead heated for third at 150/1, and all bar two finished in the top nine.

The full German-trained form string since 2007 (oldest to current) reads: 6th / 3rd 11th / 13th / 9th 12th / 1st / 8th / 6th 7th / 1st

That's pretty impressive.

The last non-Gosden trained British winner of the Arc was Workforce, brilliantly conditioned in 2010 by Sir Michael Stoute. Without going into the specifics of it, the likes of Hurricane Lane, Adayar, Stradivarius, Enable (twice), and Ghaiyyath have all been beaten for Team GB in just the last three years alone. A few have rattled the woodwork in the wider sample period - Sea Of Class narrowly failed to beat Enable, and Youmzain was famously second twice - but the overall record does not inspire confidence in the challenge of les rosbifs.

The home team saddles far more runners than any of the raiding squads and it is therefore little surprise that they have the most wins in recent years. There was Solemia at 33/1 (tipped on these pages, astonishingly) but, she aside, the longest priced French scorer since the superdam Urban Sea prevailed at 37/1 in 1993 was 13/1 Waldgeist three years ago. That's probably not out of kilter with what the maths would expect but it does serve as a note of caution for us reckless moulin-tilters!

Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe Winning Age and Gender

Five-year-olds occasionally win the Arc. Waldgeist did in 2019, so too Marienbard in 2002, Tony Bin in 1988 and Star Appeal in 1975; but you'll already have the impression that it's not a regular occurrence. That outlying quartet aside, every winner back to the five-year-old Le Paillon in 1947 was aged three or four. Runners older than five rock up in dribs and drabs most years, and this year may include the good (but not great) Aussie mare, Verry Elleegant, and Broome as well as a couple of Japanese entries. That latter trio if lining up would surely serve pacemaker duties only.

Between 1994 and 2011, three-year-olds won all bar three Arcs; since 2012, they've won only three. Further, two of the three-year-olds to win - Treve and Enable - doubled up at four. Why such a poor record for the three's? Well, given nothing has materially changed about the race conditions, it can only be down to the quality of the Classic cohorts and the rub of the green.

On gender, fillies and mares receive a healthy allowance from the colts. The biggest weight disparity is between a three-year-old filly and older colts, the younger ladies getting ten pounds from the more mature gents. In theory, this is simply to level the playing field, and it is a smarter cruncher than this scribbler who can posit against that theory. But since the German-trained three-year-old filly Danedream bashed up the trendsters, we've witnessed Solemia, then Treve twice, Found, and Enable twice bring it home for the fairer sex. Seven in the last eleven years.

But it runs deeper than that. Tarnawa got closest to Torquator Tasso last year, likewise Enable to Waldgeist in 2019, Sea Of Class was closest to Enable a year before that, and the likes of Taghrooda, Shareta, Sarafina, and Snow Fairy have also made the frame; as well, of course, as the brilliant winner in 2008, Zarkava. Fillies and mares continue to outperform their representation and, to some degree, are still under appreciated by the market.

*

Where does that leave us exactly? For many, it will doubtless leave you cold - or at least tepid - because the pen that inscribes the form book is more powerful than the blunt sword of statistical sophistry wielded hitherto. Or, in slightly plainer English, it's been quackery rules so far.

Still, I'm counselled by my rummage against being too hot on Aidan, or on Team GB, or on a Frenchie at a price; and never to dismiss a German runner out of hand. Moreover, I'll only slightly mark up an inside post and believe that a good horse can win from any post position. I will discount all but the most interesting five-year-old, and all older than that; and I will give a bonus point to any filly in the field. Devil take the hindmost.

 

Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe Video Form

Some, perhaps most, will disregard historical profiles in favour of which animals have done what on the track and, in fairness, it seems reasonable to at least consider those exertions*. So what follows is a quick whizz through many of the key races. Keep in mind that runners in some recent trials, especially the French trio of Niel, Foy and Vermeilles, may not have been 100% ready that day. For what they're worth, my quick notes are alongside each recording.

*sarcasm alert

Irish Champion Stakes (1m 2f)

Looked very strong 10f form.

Vadeni - a little inconvenienced against the rail - and Mishriff closing on first run getters Lux and Onesto.
Lux by Camelot out of Danehill Dancer mare: offers hope but no guarantees
Onesto by Frankel out of Sea The Stars mare: plenty of stamina there. Already won the G1 GPdP over 12f, beating Simca Mille

Grand Prix de Paris (1m4f)

Onesto last to first, great turn of pace; but steady enough gallop (Eldar Eldarov outpaced)
Simca Mille - needs supplementing - tried to make all, coming back at Onesto (tenderly handled) at the line.

 

Prix Niel (1m4f)

Race fit Lassaut gave Simca Mille, back from a break, a two length start but couldn't quite bridge it. Winner has bags of 12f form (1121) at the trip.
Japanese Do Deuce might improve for the run but was well beaten

 

Prix Vermeille (1m4f)

La Parisienne locked up on the rail, splits came late, quickened smartly but not quite getting there.

 

Prix Foy (1m4f)

Last to first for the smart gelding (who is therefore disqualified from Arc entry), Iresine. Broome and Verry Elleegant were verry (sic) disappointing.

Grosser Preis von Baden (1m4f)

Small field, tactical, Torquator Tasso prominent, took lead but run down by Mendocino in shadow of posts.

Prix du Jockey Club (1m 2.5f)

Vadeni chased leaders from inside draw, quickened impressively. Al Hakeem, Onesto and Lassaut the rear trio, 10L from the lead, all finished well, no chance. Al Hakeem finished best.

 

Prix de Diane (1m 2.5f)

Nashwa (Prominent throughout, first run in straight) held off La Parisienne (ground saving rail run, got split 1 1/2f out, finished well but slightly too late)

 

Yorkshire Oaks (1m4f)

Alpinista (unbeaten in last 7, all 1m4f, last 5 at G1 level, including vs males) tracked leaders, smooth run to lead 2 out, ran on well. Tuesday held in second.

 

Takarazuka Kinen (1m4f)

Titleholder always front rank behind pacemaker, kicked first, won by daylight. Had previously won over 2m.

 

Arc Market Overview with Form Comments

Arc Betting: latest odds on the Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe

To the right is a snapshot of some of the major betting lists courtesy of our mutual friends at oddschecker.

Luxembourg is the tenuous favourite, available at 9/2 in a place, and they then bet 7/1 the field. Clearly, the implication is this is still a very tough wagering puzzle!

Horses I'm for and against - and those I've backed (braced for impending arrest by the aftertime police), and why, are thus:

Luxembourg has bounced back from early season setback, comes here relatively fresh and has a chance of staying on pedigree. Would back him at a bigger price (had a small saver at 6's)

Alpinista has rock solid credentials in terms of trip, grade and consistency. Mare has beaten many of these, including Torquator Tasso prior to his 2021 Arc score and an obvious contender despite being a five-year-old. (Had tiny e/w saver at 15/2)

Torquator Tasso won last year on heavy but has strong form on sounder surfaces. Second the last twice in G1 company, running to similar level as prior to last year's Arc

Titleholder is the first Japanese runner in the list. Has won from 1m3f up to two miles. I cannot peg this form but winning - twice - at or around two miles suggests he might be too slow for this. [And I might be completely wrong about that]

Adayar won the Derby and King George last year before a good fourth in the Arc. Sole run in 2022 was an ungraded conditions event last week so has a bit to prove in spite of the ease with which he did it there (as the 2/7 favourite). Very well backed today - see line of blue in image

Onesto is a three-year-old colt with strong form. Winner of the 1m4f Grand Prix de Paris and second in the Irish Champion, he may not want it soft. Has a fine turn of gear, but will be "ridden for luck" from the back most likely

Vadeni is an uncertain runner and not a guaranteed stayer (by Churchill, though out of a Monsun mare) who has yet to race beyond ten and a half furlongs; took a while to get going in Irish Champion then tightened on the rail before finishing best. Prix du Jockey Club and Eclipse winner, good chance if he runs and stays

Westover has too much to prove after his King George blowout. Won a typically weak Irish Derby and was third in a pretty weak Derby. Not for me

La Parisienne is unlucky not to have won the French Oaks (Prix de Diane) and Prix Vermeille, both Group 1's, Gerald Mosse giving her a soupçon too much to do on each occasion. Looks like she stays and is a 3yo filly getting all the allowances. Backed her e/w at 33/1. 20/1 still reasonable, I think

Do Deuce represents the land of the rising sun and can be expected to step forward from his Prix Niel effort. Probably didn't enjoy the slow ground there and, if it comes up good, he'll be more interesting than the Niel trial suggests

Al Hakeem is another I took a small piece of at 33's, win only. Sole '22 defeat was when given (way) too much to do in the Prix du Jockey Club, where he recorded the best closing sectionals. Has won again since and is trained by 2020 winning trainer Jean-Claude Rouget (Sottsass)

Lassaut is also trained by Rouget and ran the classic French prep when accelerating from far back to not quite get up in the Prix Niel (sent off favourite). This is his trip and he's a dark horse for all that he has plenty to find on the book at this stage. Had small e/w at 33/1, currently readily available at 40's!

Simca Mille needs supplementing and there must be a good chance of that as he's won four from five this year, including the Niel. Was second to Onesto (tried to make all) in the Grand Prix de Paris, so his face fits for all that he may be swamped in the final furlong. Backed tiny e/w at 40's

Mendocino brings the Grosser Preis von Baden form to the table, seeing off Torquator Tasso there (ridden by TT's Arc-winning jockey, Rene Piechulek). Looks an Autumn horse and, as a German-bred and -trained four-year-old, likely to finish in the first half of the field

*I also had a cheeky go at 33/1 Baaeed prior to the Juddmonte. It looked interesting for a while... sigh

As you can see I've chanced a couple of quid in a few directions, and cannot yet discount a further wager, perhaps on Vadeni or Do Deuce when ground and entries are better known.

*

There remain a lot of horses with strong credentials and, whilst I respect Luxembourg and particularly Alpinista, there is value against the head of the market. I'm not hugely sold on any of TT, Titleholder or Adayar - which is not to say they won't fill out the first three places, natch - and I'm completely against Westover.

Vadeni would be very interesting on top of the ground if he's allowed to run; and Do Deuce also very likely has more merit than his prep blowout. But I think 20/1 La Parisienne and 33/1 Al Hakeem are two that could shorten (or shorten further in the case of the filly) and as such might be a sliver of value.

Good luck, it promises to be a fascinating Arc even in the absence of Baaeed.

Matt

Monday Musings: If you build it…

/in /by

Autumn was already setting in on the second Sunday of October last year when the Curragh staged the Paddy Power Irish Cesarewitch, a long-established two-mile handicap, writes Tony Stafford. The race was billed as a Premier Handicap, and it attracted the customary full field of 30, with reserves on the day not getting a run.

The race was won by Line Out, a 79-rated home-bred nine-year-old of the Lillingston Family’s. The victory would have been greeted with many a fond memory of the late Alan, the family fountainhead, whose son Luke and daughter Georgina (formerly Bell) are still very much to be seen around the racecourses and major sales in Ireland and the UK.

Worth £47,200, or its Euro equivalent to the winner last year, it was staged as usual the day after its big Newmarket brother. That race has had multiple name changes over the years, a process that has accelerated more in recent times, just as the prize money on offer has also fluctuated. On that point UK trainers might be entitled to say “alarmingly”, but none of them in any case has found it easy to deprive the Willie Mullins jumpers of their annual winner’s prize when he lines up his squadron of class jumpers every October.

Nicky Henderson managed it last year when the one-time Hughie Morrison grey eight-year-old gelding Buzz with Oisin Murphy (remember him?) galloped past Mullins’ mare Burning Victory, the rest toiling. Mullins had won the three previous editions while Roger Charlton and Morrison had scooped the prize in the two years before that.

I digress. With 30 in last year’s Curragh field, in a race oft considered an afterthought for unsuccessful cross-Irish Sea challengers, or a second division for those that didn’t get in the HQ contest, the truth was probably somewhere in between. True, the relative prize was a clue, but so were the ratings.

Only two of 30 to take part in the Irish Cesarewitch last year were rated 100 or higher. In the Newmarket line-up of 32 the previous day, nine were rated 100 or above.

I promised a look at the recent administrative history of the race, so here goes. In 2017, the last year of a long period of various bookmaking alliances with the race, Betfred carried the banner, and the race was worth £155k to the winning horse. He was Withhold, trained by Roger Charlton for Tony Bloom, chairman of Brighton FC.

The following year, amid the heady atmosphere of the BHA promise of vastly increased support for top staying handicaps, a £1 million Ebor was mooted, though never actually realised. In that context we still had the Dubai £500,000 Cesarewitch in 2018 and the almost unimaginable £307,250 to the Mullins winner Low Sun, was gratefully received by all concerned.

In 2019, though not quite in the half-million bracket, the Emirates Cesarewitch still carried a £217,000 prize for another Willie Mullins hurdler of repute, the classy Stratum landing another nice touch in the race for Bloom, this time at 25-1.

Then came Covid and two major drops in funding as Together For Racing International lent their apparently worthy, if a shade unwieldy, title to the name of the second half of the Autumn Double, as those old-timers still regard it. I’ll tell you in a minute why I should still have been in there with a chance bar Saturday’s bad luck!

But back to money. In the circumstances, to pull up a first prize of £124k to reward the 2020 heroine, Mullins’ Great White Shark, was to be applauded following Covid’s savage interference with the first half of that racing season. To manage only four grand more for last year was less meritorious.

When what remains of only 53 entries in the race on Saturday week turns up on Newmarket Heath, there could be a rare instance of the great race not filling. Newmarket takes a maximum field of 32 – but if they did away with stalls for that one race the track could accommodate the entire 53 comfortably. It was a shock, though, that the Club Godolphin Cesarewitch, by which name it now exists, is worth only £103,000 to this year’s winner, barely a third of what was available just four years ago. It does not seem anywhere near good enough.

Hopefully the much publicised, and subsequently de-anonymised in terms of participants, two days of urgent talks between key industry people in London last week trying to solve racing’s ills will eventually bring some optimism to the sport. I can’t wait for developments. Maybe Matt Chapman can organise a Masked Delegate competition for next weekend’s televising.

Now though I return to the Irish Cesarewitch, because a seismic shift has occurred where that two-mile Premier handicap of 30 runners on the Curragh is concerned. In 2022 it is all of those things, but rather than wait until after its Newmarket senior member has been contested, the now Friends Of The Curragh Irish Cesarewitch took place yesterday with a new €500,000 total fund and with €324,000 to the winner – making it seven times more valuable than in 2021.

Last year, Mullins and Joseph O’Brien each managed to dredge up five candidates from their middle-ranking handicappers for the race and Aidan also sent a couple of his own. Yesterday’s race, however, was a beast of a totally different colour. To understand the transformation in quality, where there were two last year rated 100 or more, yesterday there were 16.

Having experienced the uncertainty many times that goes with waiting to find out if your horse gets in a race, I can imagine the conflicting emotions in the Racing Office at Ballydoyle as the declarations cut-off time approached. In the event, Aidan’s gamble to wait for the race with his three-year-old colt Waterville paid the ultimate dividend.

Waterville had won only once in five starts but, significantly, that was on the one occasion he tried two miles, in a handicap off 84 at Limerick in June. He had only one more run, finishing second in a 1m5f conditions race the following month. Since then, the gamble – of Truss/Kwarteng proportions – was whether the new mark of 99 was enough. When those declarations landed, he was last of 30 to get in the race. You guessed, yesterday he overcame his inexperience, as the 5-1 favourite under Wayne Lordan, to pick up the first prize in a tight finish.

Interestingly, for once the two Cesarewitch races are spaced conveniently. Aidan also entered Waterville, a son of Camelot out of a mare by stamina influence Hernando, in the newly-styled Club Godolphin Cesarewitch. I expect he will now send the now market leader to try to defy his penalty.

The identity of the trainers of the first 15 horses home yesterday was a lexicon of that country’s star handlers, apart from Jim Bolger, who has hardly bothered training stayers for many years.

In finishing order, it was Aidan O’Brien, Willie Mullins x 2, Joseph O’Brien, Dermot Weld, Joseph O’B again, Jessica Harrington, Joseph with the next four, then the sole interloper although a man from a great Irish racing family in the person of Richard Hughes, before a final one more each for Aidan and Joseph and then Ger Lyons. That merely covers the first half. The profile of many of the beaten horses fits them for either Newmarket or the Champion Stayers race at Ascot the following weekend.

I hinted at a frustrating Cambridgeshire. In all the years I tipped for the paper it was one of my most successful races and I loved to stand at the top of the old grandstand and peer down with the binoculars as they approached the last six furlongs while swelling from blobs to finite form.

Watching Dual Identity there yesterday, for much of that now screen-aided nine furlongs, was simply a blueprint for an imminent Cambridgeshire win, so easily was he going. In the Kennett Valley Thoroughbreds colours carried with distinction by Dual Identity’s older teammate Sir Busker in the William Knight stable, it seemed just a case of queueing up to collect as he bossed the much smaller far-side group.

Andrea Atzeni pulled him out quite a long way from home, and with no feasible competition nearby, had no option but to kick him on inside the last two furlongs as he sensed the stands group had the advantage.

While Dual Identity, after striking the front moved inexorably further and further clear of his toiling main rival, the solid block of stands runners was gradually generating the power of the pack. Just as victory looked assured, in the last 50 yards the last few strides brought first one, 25-1 shot Majestic, then on the line a second, Bell Rock, both with 5lb claimers, to head Dual Identity, even though he gave no sign of faltering.

The fascinating point, as ever, will be in the handicapping of the race. Will the BHA handicappers treat it as a single entity, raising the winner a little more than the second and third (by a nose)? Or, rather, will he regard this as two races and have sliding-scale assessments of merit according to relative position on the course?

If the normal standards are to be followed, Dual Identity could represent a handicap certainty next time out. Then again, I thought he was before Saturday having watched the film of Sandown. I told Ed Chamberlin after the race I thought Dual Identity was one of the unluckiest losers of a big handicap I can remember. Of course, that was to forget all those races when half the field on certain days at Ascot, Goodwood, Newmarket, Newbury or indeed Ayr and Doncaster need not have bothered turning up so unequal were ground conditions on either side of those courses!

I’ll be off on Saturday to Ascot to test whether Dusky Lord should have been better rewarded in terms of numbers by the various bodies assessing his brilliant win at Ayr two weeks prior. Roger Varian has him lined up for the Group 3 John Guest Racing Bengough Stakes over six furlongs. If he wins that, Jonathan and the rest of the Dusky Lord partnership will be in clover!

- TS

New: Fast Finisher indicators

/in , /by

They're pretty subtle; you'd be forgiven for missing them. Unless you had seen our twitter feed...

 

https://twitter.com/geegeez_uk/status/1571149782768582659

 

That little 'go faster' stripe icon - which might have a colour change in coming days to make it 'pop' a touch more - indicates that a horse has finished quickly in one of its recent races. That, in turn, means it might be worth a second glance today. Specifically, it's highlighting a horse that appears on the Fast Finishers report for any of its most recent three runs. And, to be absolutely clear how horses appear on that report, the Fast Finishers (FF) report displays a list of those horses who finished more than 2.5% quicker than the race finishing time in the closing (C) section.

 

You do NOT need to know this - you only need to know that if they have the indicator they are capable of rattling home late under the right circumstances!

 

IMPORTANT NOTE: you need to opt in to viewing sectional data, which you can do in the 'Racecard Options' section of your My Geegeez page 👇

 

 

Without turning this into a sectional timing sermon, horses that close well have often performed better than their finishing position suggests, and can be value bets in upcoming races, assuming a similar race setup. Let's consider the case of Ayr Gold Cup winner and recent 'fast finisher', Summerghand. This is his form string (ignore the top line, which is the Ayr Gold Cup win).

 

Clicking the 'Show Sectionals' radio button top left presents a different perspective, with a number of things to pick out:

 

In the above visual, I've 'hovered' over the running line (the bit with 14 14 14 12 4) to reveal the race detail - jockey, position/field size, distance beaten, winner, odds, weight, headgear and, importantly, the in-running comment. "did well in the circumstances, 1st of 4 in group".

To the right of the running line is a little orange 'go faster stripe'. This means that not only was Summerghand a fast finisher, he was the fastest finisher in the race. As can be seen clearly from the first of the two form images above, he righted the injustice of Ripon's fast finish with a big field handicap win at York next time out. After that he was never nearer in a small field Listed race at Newmarket that wouldn't have played to his ability to finish in a truly run race, before doing just that to get the lot in the AGC.

It is important to note with all sectional data that, as is perfectly highlighted above, there are gaps in our knowledge. The gaps are due to the continued lack of availability of Course Track (Racing TV tracks) data. This is a source of ongoing deep frustration but it doesn't stop the subset we publish - for those tracks covered by Total Performance Data - shining a light on runners with the ability to 'do business' at the end of a race.

As we move to a time of year when all-weather racing will take place most days, TPD's sectional coverage at Lingfield, Newcastle, Southwell and Wolverhampton will provide us with many opportunities to back fast finishers when it looks like they'll get a similar race pace to aim at. For more on sectional timing, check out these posts.

Enjoy!

Matt

All-Weather Analysis: Dundalk Racecourse, Part 2

/in /by

This series on all-weather tracks continues with the second of two articles looking at the Irish course of Dundalk. The first looked at run style and the draw, and can be viewed here; this piece delves into a variety of other areas in relation to the sole Irish all-weather loop.

The track was resurfaced in April 2020 and reopened in July 2020, so for this article the focus will be on the races run after the renovation work, from 12th July 2020 to 31st August 2022. I will occasionally compare the new data with some past data to try and gauge whether there are any significant differences compared to the results from the old surface. That past data will be covering a similar period in terms of elapsed time and volume of races – 1st January 2018 to March 31st 2020.

I have used the Geegeez Query Tool for all the data collection, and hence all profits / losses have been calculated to Industry Starting Price. However, as I have noted many times before, we will be able to improve upon these figures by using either early prices and best odds guaranteed (BOG) or the exchanges.

Dundalk Trainers

The first port of call in this part two is to analyse the most recent trainer performance (12/7/20 to 31/8/22). One shy of thirty trainers have saddled 75 or more runners in races at Dundalk over the past two and a little bit years and so I have included them all.

 

Dundalk Trainers: Record of those saddling 75+ runners since the new track was laid (up to 31st August 2022)

Dundalk Trainers: Record of those saddling 75+ runners since the new track was laid (up to 31st August 2022)

 

It is perhaps no surprise to see just six trainers in profit; in terms of A/E index, seven trainers are above the magic 1.00 figure. It may be helpful to compare this most recent data with that from the pre-renovation sample period to see if any major changes have occurred. Below are all the trainers that had at least 75 runners in both time frames and I have compared their win strike rate percentages. The green column are the most recent:

 

Trainer comparison of Dundalk form before and after the course renovation

Trainer comparison of Dundalk form before and after the course renovation

 

In terms of these win percentages the figures for each trainer generally correlate; it seems that Johnny Murtagh and Richard O’Brien have seen the biggest downturn in results. However, in reality, the sample size is still quite small in trainer terms, so we should be careful not to read too much into it, well not just yet anyway.

One trainer who did make the list due to not quite having enough runners is the Ballydoyle maestro, Aidan O’Brien. However his recent figures since the resurfacing work are worth sharing: 17 wins from 59 runners (SR 28.8%) for a profit of £32.86 (ROI +55.7%). His A/E index stands at a solid 1.06, too. He had a similar overall strike rate prior to this at 27.1% (1/1/18 to 31/3/20), although he made a small loss during that period.

Going back to the original table, Ger Lyons is the only trainer to secure a strike rate in excess of 20%, and he has a couple of worthwhile stats to mention:

  1. In handicap races, Lyons' record reads 13 from 62 (SR 21%) showing a profit of £24.30 (ROI +39.2%).
  1. Horses that wear NO headgear (blinkers, tongue tie, cheek pieces etc) have provided 24 wins from 97 runners (SR 24.7%) for a profit of £16.65 (ROI +17.2%).

Before moving away from Lyons it is worth sharing his run style data in terms of win %:

 

Ger Lyons runners by run style: Dundalk Racecourse 12th July 2020 to 31st August 2022

Ger Lyons runners by run style: Dundalk Racecourse 12th July 2020 to 31st August 2022

 

As can be seen, Lyons horses taking the lead early have fared exceptionally well, securing 11 wins from the 23 runners that adopted that position. It is also worth noting that a further eight of these were placed, meaning 19 of 23 either won or were placed. The racing performance of Lyons' prominent racers has also been excellent, scoring once in every four runs on average. His record with hold up horses / mid pack runners is less good, however, both registering at under 10%.

Another trainer worth noting is Michael Halford. He has shown a small blind profit overall and his best time of the year seems to be October to December where he has secured a strike rate of 18% (23 wins from 128 runners) and returned a profit of £54.72 (ROI 42.7%). Halford's handicap runners have provided his most profitable results with a return of 33p in the £ across all such runners. It does look best to avoid his older runners, though: those aged six-plus have triumphed just once in 32 attempts.

 

Dundalk Racecourse Jockeys

It's time now to look at the record of jockeys riding Dundalk over the past two years or so. The minimum number of rides to qualify is again 75, and here are the top ten in terms of win strike rate:

 

Dundalk Jockeys: Record of those riding 75+ times since the track was renovated (up to 31st August 2022)

Dundalk Jockeys: Record of those riding 75+ times since the track was renovated (up to 31st August 2022)

 

The percentages even for the most successful course jockeys are relatively modest, but Dundalk often has big fields which is naturally going to affect the figures. Indeed the non-handicap average field size is 11.4 runners per race and the handicap average field size is 12.6. Over 53% of all races in this period saw a maximum field size of 14 runners.

Let's again compare this most recent data with that from 1/1/18 to 31/3/20 to see if there are any marked differences in jockey success. Here I am listing all jockeys that had 75 or more rides in both the time frames (most recent data again is in green):

 

Jockey comparison of Dundalk form before and after the course renovation

Jockey comparison of Dundalk form before and after the course renovation

 

With modest sample sizes you would expect the odd significant fluctuation due to luck or statistical variance, but in general nothing stands out too much. Conor Hoban is a jockey who seems to have enjoyed the new surface with a fairly decent uptick in his win strike rate. He is the only jockey in fact to have had A/E indices of over 1.00 during both timeframes. The stats suggest to me that he rides this course as well as anyone. Hoban has a very good record with horses nearer the top end of the market: since the re-opening, Hoban's record on horses priced 8/1 or shorter is 11 wins from 37 (SR 29.7%) for a profit of £20.41 (ROI +55.2%). For the record, in the similar timeframe prior to the renovation his mounts made a profit in this same odds group. I do feel Hoban is a jockey that would be a good one to have on side at Dundalk.

 

Gender bias at Dundalk?

I have noted before that there has always been a small but significant gender bias when it comes to flat racing, with male horses outperforming female ones. On the all-weather this bias tends to be a bit stronger and the recent Dundalk stats (12/7/20 to 31/8/22) are an example of this:

 

Performance by sex of horse at Dundalk, 12th July 2020 to 31st August 2022

Performance by sex of horse at Dundalk, 12th July 2020 to 31st August 2022

 

As can be seen, males have a better strike rate by around 2.5%; better returns (6½p in the £) and higher Actual/Expected and Impact Value indices. They may look relatively modest differences but should still be factored into your betting in my view.

The figures for male and female runners from before the resurfacing (1/1/18 to 31/3/20) are very similar:

 

Performance by sex of horse at Dundalk, 1st January 2018 to 31st March 2020

Performance by sex of horse at Dundalk, 1st January 2018 to 31st March 2020

 

We can see similar differences in strike rates and returns; likewise, the figures for A/E indices and IVs are virtually the same.

When I looked at Chelmsford data previously, there seemed to be a strengthening in the gender bias in the 2yo to 4yo age groups and a levelling off in horses aged 5 and above. This pattern is not really repeated here although 4yo females have really struggled winning just 5.4% of the time (A/E 0.65; IV 0.71).

 

Dundalk Racecourse: Market factors

With Dundalk generally enjoying big fields the overall market data was interesting to dig into. I mentioned earlier that 53% of all races have a maximum field size of 14; furthermore, over 80% of all races have been contested by 12 or more runners.

Firstly let's take a look at the win strike rates for different ranks in the betting; starting with favourites and moving down to betting position of 9th or more:

 

Dundalk performance by market rank, 12/7/20 to 31/8/22

Dundalk performance by market rank, 12/7/20 to 31/8/22

 

In general we see a sliding scale although the sixth and fifth in the market are out of synch: this is almost certainly one of those rare statistical anomalies. The win percentage for favourites is relatively low with the average field size the driving factor behind that.

A look at the A/E indices now:

 

Actual vs Expected by market rank: Dundalk racecourse 12th July 2020 to 31st August 2022

Actual vs Expected by market rank: Dundalk racecourse 12th July 2020 to 31st August 2022

 

The sixth market rank figure of 1.00 is a statistical anomaly as mentioned above. Ignoring that, the most interesting number for me is the 0.82 one for those 9th or lower in the betting lists. This group of runners (roughly 3000 of them) have actually broken even to Betfair SP. It is also worth noting that second favourites have broken even to Betfair SP.

A quick look now at combining trainers with market rank – I have looked at trainer performance with horses from the top three in the betting (minimum 50 qualifiers). Here are my findings:

 

Trainer performance when saddling one of the top three in the betting, 12th July 2020 to 31st August 2022

Trainer performance when saddling one of the top three in the betting, 12th July 2020 to 31st August 2022

 

To offer some context, all trainers have combined to produce a win strike rate of 20.2%, an ROI of -14% and an A/E index of 0.86. In that light, Jessica Harrington and James McAuley have performed significantly below the norm which is worth noting, while Eddie Lynam and Ado McGuinness are the top performers.

Finally in this section on the betting market I want to look at handicap races with 12 or more runners, and consider the market splits. There have been 371 such races which gives us a large swathe of market data to examine. I have split the market into three as I do with draw data to investigate the percentage of winners within each ‘third’ of the market. Hence in a 12 runner race the market position splits would be as follows:

Low 1/3 – top 4 in the betting

Mid 1/3 – 5th to 8th in the betting

High 1/3 – 9th to 12th in the betting

 

I have made some statistical adjustments to render these figures as accurate as I can, but there are occasions when ‘joint’ market positions exist; and, further, 13 and 14 runner races do not quite divide perfectly by three. However, I am confident these percentage splits are as near to ‘spot on’ as is possible:

 

 

Approximately two-thirds of 12+ runner handicaps are won by the most fancied third of the runners. As punters we are always looking for value, but we must operate within the generally extremely efficient confines of the market.

 

Sires at Dundalk 

Let us know turn our attention to the performance of winners at Dundalk based on their sire. Below is a table of all sires to have had at least 100 runners at the track in the sample period (ordered by strike rate):

 

Sire performance at Dundalk, 1/7/20 to 31/8/22 [100+ runners to qualify]

Sire performance at Dundalk, 1/7/20 to 31/8/22 [100+ runners to qualify]

I think we need to wait another year, perhaps two, before we make any sweeping conclusions about the performance of individual sires on this new surface. Horses that race regularly here will skew the sire stats a little especially when the sample size is around the 100 to 130 mark. Once we get more sires with 200+ runs it will be a good time to re-examine the data in more detail. For example, the Canford Cliffs figures look vastly inflated to me when I compare his progeny record at Dundalk with long term performance across similar surfaces in the UK and Ireland. Likewise, Holy Roman Emperor is not a sire that tends to produce a win strike rate of just 1.67% - what we know of his record more generally is that he is nearer the 10% mark.

As a researcher and indeed a punter one needs to be aware that statistical analysis can have some limitations. In racing, sample size is often one such limitation, and appreciating where and when this is a potential limitation will help us in our quest to make a long term profit from horse racing. Gathering stats is one thing; understanding their relevance/importance is even more key.

 

Horses for courses at Dundalk

In closing, I'd like to look at some horses that have excelled at Dundalk since the resurfacing work. To qualify for the list they must have won at least four races and possess a strike rate of 25% or more at the track. Further, they must have raced at least once in Ireland or the UK in 2022. These are the horses to qualify. I have included a PRB column too (Percentage of rivals beaten):

 

Course specialists at Dundalk racecourse, 1st July 2020 to 31st August 2022

Course specialists at Dundalk racecourse, 1st July 2020 to 31st August 2022

 

Most of these runners deserve close scrutiny whenever they run at Dundalk, if past performance counts for anything. The five runners with PRB figures of 0.80 or higher are particularly noteworthy.

Whatharm has had a relatively poor time of it on the turf this year so his handicap mark has dropped. It will be interesting to see if a return to Dundalk will spark a return to form.

Dundalk is a track that will have plenty of racing this Autumn and Winter. From now until 16th December they will be racing every Friday, and for eight consecutive weeks from the start of November up to Christmas they will be racing on Wednesdays, too. Hopefully this article and its predecessor, part one, will help us all to be (more) profitable at Dundalk and potentially give us some pennies to spend over the festive period: it's not that far away now!

- DR

Roving Reports: Yarmouth Tales

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It is a little known fact that, wherever you are in the British Isles, you are exactly three and a half hours away from Great Yarmouth, writes David Massey. It matters not whether you live in St Neots, Norwich or, in my case, Nottingham, it will take you 210 minutes to arrive on Yarmouth's golden seafront. Fact.

Yarmouth's Eastern Festival, which takes place mid-September each year, is something of a bookmakers' jolly. There's something for everyone - low grade handicaps, maidens where you'll find a good chunk of 3yo handicap winners for next year and, occasionally, you might well see a Group horse in the making: we may have seen one of those this year. More on that later.

I always travel on the Monday before racing on the Tuesday. This is inevitably a good decision as it means I can meander down early afternoon, miss the worst of the traffic, and relax Monday evening. I set off at half one and arrived at my B&B (Sandcastles, I use them every year, highly recommended) at exactly five. See, told you.

As you might remember from last time, I've agreed to work the Tuesday this time as Rob, aka S&D Bookmakers, is short of a worker on the day. Rob, who has a bungalow in the area, is also travelling down on the Monday and we're meeting for a carvery at half six. What neither of us realised is there's a pub quiz on. It's been ages since I took part in one, but I do like a quiz. (I was virtually a pub quiz semi-professional in my late teens and early twenties, either compiling or taking part three or four times a week. I have an excellent story about how that all started, but that's for another day.)

We stay for the quiz, and despite the massive disadvantage we have of just being a two against teams of five, we aren't here to win, just have a bit of fun. After a moderate opening round on questions about our recently passed-on monarch, round 2 is about Marvel Films.

I look at Rob hopefully here, as he's a massive sci-fi nut and I know he likes the Marvel stuff. Expecting a full house, I take a back seat and let Rob drive.

It is at this point I discover another disadvantage; Rob has a memory like a sieve. Every question goes like this.

"I must have seen this film [that the question relates to] ten times."

"Great, what's the answer then?"

"I've no idea."

We score one out of ten. We will eventually finish joint-ninth out of twelve teams on the evening, a round on sport helping us haul ourselves off the bottom. Still, it was fun...

Day one at Yarmouth. Towcester used to be the place where east met west, north met south, but since its sad demise (I still hope against hope it will return one day) Yarmouth has taken on that mantle. There are plenty of familiar East Midlands faces around, and a good mix of books from various compass points. Rob has stuck me on the grass, right at the back; a good pick, as there are plenty sat down around me.

It would be fair to say Yarmouth's crowd is not a young one. Many are there for an end-of-season holiday themselves and given the place is still somewhat camped in the 1980s, the crowd follows suit. We're not going to take any big bets, and there's no danger of us running out of pound coins either. Indeed, one woman has two £2.50 ew bets every race, and pays with five £2 coins each time. She explains she saves them up all year and then uses them as her betting kitty over the three days. Those are the sort of punters you are dealing with here.

There are a couple of well-known bigger punters around the ring, in fairness, but they have their favourites to bet with and I don't expect to see them come my way.

The maiden on the card produces some lively betting. Plenty want to be with the favourite, Proverb, but the paddock judges are telling me that Zoology is the nicest horse in the parade ring. However, he's doing a lot wrong too, shouting and is very green, so he may be one for another day.

They're wrong. Zoology goes down to post well, and isn't the slightest bit green in the race, leading early and powering away from what looked a decent field to win a ready four lengths. It's easy to get carried away with these first-time performances but it's clear from post-race interviews connections feel they have something very special.

Dance Havana at 40-1 is a good result, although that is the third winner on the card for one old dear who is having a quid each-way each race. Her husband, also having similar bets with less success, is not happy. "I'm giving you my money and you're just giving it back to her!" he exclaims. She backs winner Cumulonimbus in the next, too.

From nowhere, one of the big punters rocks up, and asks what I'll take on the next favourite. I'm happy to lay him a monkey - as we've got four pitches on the track, there's every chance he will try and get more on with another one - but it duly wins, and it makes a dent in the float. Still a winning day, though.

Wednesday, and I'm free, to do what I want, any old time. I was keen on Hot Chesnut running a big race in the first but the drying ground has put me off somewhat. However, after seeing how fit she is pre-race, I can't resist, and go in anyway. Others think the same, as she's going off a lot shorter than was predicted. With good reason too, it turns out, as she flies home and is only narrowly beaten. I've won enough for an ice-cream, with a Flake.

Next up, I see one of the biggest 2yos I've ever seen in my life in the shape of Blindedbythelights, trained by Sir Mark Prescott. It is unsurprising he doesn't have the pace for 7f on debut but the way the penny drops late on suggests 10f nurseries at the back end of the season might be the plan. Don't say I didn't tell you!

The listed John Musker is the highlight of the three days, often attracting good horses. I remember Sir Andrew Lloyd-Webber turning up by helicopter to watch So Mi Dar win back in 2016. I don't think he had an ice-cream, though. His loss. This year, Shaara wins for the Gosdens again - she's not in front before the line, and she's not in front after it, but she has her head down at the right time which is good news for me, as I had a few quid on.

Sadly, the rest of the card falls away, with few runners for the final three races (one is a match) but no matter because it's now time for the greyhounds.

Another highlight of this holiday is a trip to the dogs to watch the East Anglian Derby on the Wednesday night, but recent events mean that we are watching the semi-finals tonight instead. There are six other opens on the card, too, so it's a quality night regardless. We've booked a party of twelve in the restaurant earlier in the year (seats soon sell out) and the food we are served is excellent, it must be said. After the meal, we all go down to watch the semi-finals and are delighted when the six, Carole's Legacy, wins the second of them, as we are all on to a man and woman. The oi oiiii's go up late, as she's not in front until the final few strides, but she's paid for the night. Rob, generous as ever, picks up the drinks tab for the evening before we all go our separate ways.

I've time to kill Thursday morning so go for a stroll down the seafront after breakfast. It is noticeable the arcades and seafront shops open later than has been the norm when I've been here before. Saving on the leccy, maybe? That theory is backed up by the fact a few of the arcades don't have their frontage lighting on when they do get going for the day. Seems the cost of living crisis is biting everywhere, even when you've got the odds stacked very much in your favour.

Alongside the racing, the crown green Festival Of Bowls tournaments have been on all week, and after picking a 'paper and a coffee up, I plonk myself down on a seat to watch for a while. It's a very relaxing backdrop, but it isn't helping me find any winners today. I've already made the decision I'll only stop for the first four races, as I want to take the maidens in, and I'd like to get home for a reasonable hour.

The biggest crowd of the week turn up for Ladies Day. Remarkably, I'm in need of the sun cream, as the rays are strong when big yellow does appear. Bigger crowds do not always mean better, though, and the books are complaining business is not strong. To be fair, some would still find complaint if they were taking ten grand a race, but it is clear from the lack of queues that there's some merit in what they say.

The few bets I have on the day go west in the main and, when the 80-1 shot Premiere Beauty wins, you know it's time to go home. Martyn Of Leicester has won a chunk on the race and is giving it plenty as I walk out the track - I suspect the next three winning jollies might have quietened him somewhat - and set off back for Nottingham. I have the best result of the week on the way back, filling the car for £1.51 a litre near Sleaford. This must be what winning the lottery feels like. Home for half seven, it's been a great week.

Jumps season is just around the corner now, boys and girls...

- DM

Monday Musings: A Dusky Beauty

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Some weeks, I worry right until the moment when I finally open the keyboard, wondering what to put into these rambling epistles, writes Tony Stafford. Often, it’s a lottery, with random episodes of equal, often minimal, importance to weigh. Other times, like this weekend, I’m spoilt for choice.

Monday Musings is not an organ of record, unlike my long-term employer, the Daily Telegraph, its great rival the Times, or another of my early parking places, the Press Association. Even before then, on a local paper it was instilled in me to chisel out the “who, what, when, where, why, how and to whom” coda for story compiling half a dozen years before the start of my DT days half a century ago.

Among the formula’s most exacting adherents of PA vintage was David Thomas, son of the Sporting Life’s celebrated Chief Racing Reporter, Len, who had been for decades and still was a doyen of the 'paper. If his issue was a doyen of anything, it was repetition, as upon confronting a winning trainer after a race, he would ask, bright bowtie to the fore, “how many do you have in this year?”, “where does the owner come from?” and, more acceptably, “where will he go next?”

In fairness, the domicile of the owner was important, too, as local papers needed those lines from the exciting world of horse racing and sport to flesh out their parochial coverage of robberies, brawls outside public houses and the misdemeanours of local politicians. How I loved Police Calls at Leyton nick in metropolitan Essex in my first newspaper job on the Walthamstow Guardian! Up to a point! I presented “Tommy” with a 1972 copy of Horses In Training one day and dared him to ask another trainer his worn-out trilogy. He defied me, but not until the next day!

There are more than enough “proper” stories elsewhere in this comprehensive, authoritative electronic publication to keep everyone on point, and to allow me an old man’s self-indulgence. In reverse order, in best Miss World mode – if we’re still locked in the 1970’s – the heroes are Hughie Morrison, Charlie Appleby and Roger Varian.

Hughie has been around the longest of the three and equally I’ve known him the longest too. A shade chippier than the others, he finds plenty not to admire about the administration of the sport, and trains at his own pace. He takes any injury the horses sustain as if it were to himself and opportunities for his horses are minutely sought out. On Saturday, his scouring of the Pattern programmes led to two of his progressive fillies collecting Group 3 races, at home at Newbury and in France at Chantilly. The latter foray Hughie declared necessary as he reckoned there was such limited domestic opportunity for the cross-Channel traveller. “Just one other suitable race before Christmas,” he said.

She was Mrs Fitzherbert, a Kingman filly owned by Sonya and Anthony Rogers. Her emphatic success at Chantilly earned €40k for the win and a decent multiple of that in inherent paddock value for her legendary owner-breeders.

The Arbibs, father and son, were the happy beneficiaries of the earlier winner, Stay Alert, as her jockey David Egan needed to, for she was apparently securely trapped on the rail inside the last furlong. But after belatedly worming a small gap, his mount got him out of trouble with instant acceleration to be ahead and back hard held before the line.

Before this challenge against the boys, which brought not just a similar prize but also the promise of much more to come, Stay Alert had been in line for the big fillies’ race on Champions Day next month, and the way she accelerated will make her a threat to even the top fillies at Ascot. “Had she not,” Hughie reminded me beforehand, “given Nashwa a real battle at Newbury earlier in the summer?”

Egan, with confidence emanating from last weekend’s St Leger win on Eldar Eldarov, rather than shrink after the sacking following Mishriff’s too-late finish into second behind Vadeni in the Eclipse, was riding the second of four consecutive winners on the day, more of which later.

I wouldn’t say replacing him has been a conspicuous success – the Eclipse was by far Mishriff’s best run of an unproductive year! The many millions he won for owner and trainer back in Saudi Arabia early last year obviously counted for nought in the face of that one slight misjudgement on a track where any jockey – the best down -  can get into trouble even in a three-horse race.

Egan had his day in the sun while William Buick was off travelling to North America for Charlie Appleby and Godolphin. The champion-elect had two mounts at Woodbine in Canada, while as Buick can only sit on one horse and be in one place at a time, former Godolphin habitué, a certain L Dettori, had the gig at Belmont at the Big A – presumably Aqueduct was needed to fulfil some of its near-neighbour’s dates. [It was/is, as Belmont is under reconstruction - Ed.]

The three horses, Nations Pride at the Big A, and the juvenile Mysterious Night and French 2,000 Guineas winner Modern Games in Toronto, all bolted up. They showed, as if we didn’t know already, that North American turf horses are a pretty crummy bunch, relatively speaking at least. Each of the trio won by at least five lengths – cumulatively just over 17 – and picked up a combined $1,450,000 - £920,000 according to the Racing Post. However, with the pound at a long-time low against the dollar, it currently converts at a shade more than £1,250,000, and so made it a very worthwhile trip indeed for all concerned.

Buick will not have been even a trice concerned at Egan’s clean-up job, which also encompassed an impressive Mill Reef Stakes victory for Sakheer, who looked one of the fastest juveniles so far seen out. By common consent that put a classy gloss on an astounding day for his trainer Roger Varian.

With a second St Leger in the bag, Varian has been flying up the trainer charts in recent weeks, but even he would not have anticipated a seven-timer on a single day. The wins came nicely spread around the nation with three each at Newbury and at Ayr’s Western meeting and one at Newmarket. Had Cobalt Blue not been caught on the run-in at Wolverhampton it would have been an eight-timer!

I know I’m putting it at the bottom, but my race of the day, and one of amiable Roger’s septet, was Dusky Lord. This was his eighth run of the season and second win. I’d travelled a total of 1,800 miles to see each of the previous seven, in representing Jonathan Barnett, the football agent, one of those in the Partnership in whose colours he runs.

Six days earlier he had raced from the worst stall of all in the Portland at Doncaster, frustratingly as it was a target I’d suggested for him all year, and he was never able to overcome the disadvantage. David Egan, who won on him at Newmarket in the spring and finished a close second on the four-year-old at Glorious Goodwood, was adamant. “He ran well.”

Armed with that intelligence, Varian declared him for Ayr, happy he had not had too hard a race thanks to Egan’s sensible ride. While he missed by only a few horses and a couple of pounds to make the Big Show, he slid in almost at the top of the Silver Cup, albeit with a massive weight – 9st 11lb.

So, in front of the TV, I was happy to see Jack Mitchell, who had won on Dusky Lord at Newcastle last year, get him away well in the middle group. From then on it was 70 seconds of regret that I’d not taken another road trip – this time 975 miles, there and back.

From here let me leave you in the hands of Timeform. They reported: "Dusky Lord turned out again quickly, having been drawn out of things in the Portland, proved a revelation back in headgear <cheek-pieces>, showing much improved form, rare to see a handicap of this nature won with such complete authority; midfield, tanked along, quickened to lead over 2f out, drew clear, impressive; it’s hard to see even a big rise in the weights being enough to stop him being of interest again."

The Silver Cup has been an adjunct of the Gold Cup for at least a decade. I checked the last eight and each time the Gold Cup, as one would expect, has been run in the quicker time, always between 0.2 sec and 0.8 sec faster. Saturday’s big race went to now 15-time winner Summerghand, trained by David O’Meara. His time was 0.93 sec slower than Dusky Lord’s.

The Racing Post, to my mind, often does a fair bit of massaging of their speed figures. Summerghand’s figure was 72, compared with Dusky Lord’s 95, which represents a second and a half or seven and a half lengths' difference. Yet to arrive at such a low mark on what is clearly Summerghand’s best run of the year, they felt obliged to give him his smallest time performance of the season after 79, 75, 88, 76 and 85.

They clearly felt they had to minimise the figure for Dusky Lord as it would have been in the stratosphere. After the way he won, without being slightly challenged by his 24 rivals, the margin of the win and the fast time, Timeform have raised his mark from the high 90’s to 109. Phil Bull, Timeform’s founder whose whole ethos was based on the accurate interpretation of times, will be turning in his grave!

I think the partners have a Group horse of the future. What a day for Roger Varian, David Egan, Charlie Appleby, William Buick and Hughie Morrison! Not too shabby for Dusky Lord and his owners either!

- TS

2022 Ayr Gold/ Silver/ Bronze Cup Draw & Pace

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As they say, prediction is difficult, especially about the future; and what better frame upon which to overlay such haphazard clairvoyance than three 25-runner straight track sprint handicaps? Today and tomorrow, Ayr continues to host its Western meeting which, among many enticing puzzles, features the Ayr Gold Cup and its *two* consolation races, the Silver and Bronze Cups.

Each features a straight line three-quarter mile charge that begins in a chute, runs slightly downhill for the first third before plateauing and then rising a touch until a furlong or so from home where it flattens out. It can be difficult for horses to make ground between three and one furlongs out, and those with a position in the first half of the field are often favoured especially on good or quicker going.

The turf this year looks like being good, good to soft in places and, with the weather drying out, that may also prove an inconvenience to late runners. Or it may not: prediction, after all, is difficult.

The purpose of this piece is not to tip the winners - I know my limits! - but, rather, to try to shortlist the fields based on what we know of the recent past and on this weekend's distribution of speedy early horses.

Ayr Historical Draw / Run Style Heat Map

History is our best friend when it comes to guessing about tomorrow, or this afternoon, or whenever after now, and the following image illustrates the history of 16+ runner six furlong handicaps at Ayr on going between good and good to soft:

Ayr 6f Draw / Run Style heat map (pace bias)

It shows a fairly even distribution with the possible exception of horses drawn high that are waited with: this group has struggled a smidge. Front runners and prominent racers have exceeded the 50% percentage of rivals beaten metric average across the track, though by fine margins in the main.

2022 Ayr Bronze Cup Pace Map

Here's how the pace map looks for the Bronze Cup. There's a fairly even distribution of early toe, with Never Dark - who ran well yesterday - low, Monsieur Kodi middle, and Fast And Loose highest of all.

My opening gambit is that the winner may be drawn either in stalls 1 to 6, or in 18 to 25; which is to say I'm lukewarm on the prospects of those drawn middle - especially if, as often happens, the field splits into two and travels close to either rail.

2022 Ayr Silver Cup Pace Map

Pundits often scratch their heads when trying to explain how a draw bias reverses from one race to the next. The reason for this reversal is almost always because there wasn't a draw bias in the first place; rather, there was a proliferation of pace on one side of the track which allowed some horses in that group to get a quicker lead than their counterparts elsewhere on the piste.

A group of fast horses can appear anywhere across a level playing field and be the differentiator, a fact seemingly too tricky for some broadcasters to conjure with. (In fairness, they probably don't have great data viz like us 🙂 )

To the Silver Cup and, bar Emperor Spirit in stall one, the pace looks to be in the bigger numbers here, and I'd be betting the winner to emerge from the highest third or so of the stalls.

2022 Ayr Gold Cup Pace Map

The main event itself, the 2022 Ayr Gold Cup, is more difficult to predict pace wise. As is shown in the visual below, Bergerac (stall 8) and Mr Wagyu (15) are the clear pace horses. But both have options. Will Bergerac tack across towards the far rail (from where stall one emerges)? Will Mr Wagyu turn right from the gate and race up the stands rail? Or will one or both stay centre?

I don't know, and the answer to which stall the winner starts from may depend heavily on this factor. Or it may not: prediction, after all, is... never mind.

From a punting perspective, I'm guessing the two quick early horses jump and run; that is, they go straight rather than deviating towards a rail, towing the group between them - in stalls 9 to 14 - into the race. With so few horses in the pace map's 'prominent' column, they each have a chance to get a relatively uncontested lead, with sufficient distance across the track between them to not take each other on; in that scenario, they are credible all-the-way victors.

2022 Ayr Cups Summary

On paper, or a computer screen, the Gold Cup looks tougher to fathom from a draw/pace perspective than the consolation races. Not that the Silver and Bronze Cups are straightforward to decipher. So, just for fun, I'll say that the Bronze Cup winner will be drawn low, the Silver Cup winner high, and the Gold Cup winner middle. Imagine the pundit confusion should that entirely credible scenario come to pass!

Matt

All-Weather Analysis: Dundalk Racecourse, Part 1

/in /by

My series on all weather tracks continues with the first of a two-parter looking at the Irish racecourse at Dundalk, writes Dave Renham. This is my first detailed piece of research on Dundalk and I am hoping to find some credible angles which will help us all when having a bet there. The track is 1m2f in circumference and left handed and as you can see in the picture below the 5f distance starts from a chute which joins the round course at the penultimate bend.

 

 

Dundalk was resurfaced in April 2020 and reopened in July of that year. So, for this article, the focus will be on races run from 12th July 2020 (the first fixture after the renovations) to 31st August 2022. I will at times be comparing the new data with past data to try and gauge whether there are any significant differences compared to the results from the old surface.

I have used the Geegeez toolkit - Query Tool, Pace and Draw Analysers - for all the data collection: these can be accessed from the home page from the Tools dropdown menu.

Running Style at Dundalk

For regular readers of my Geegeez articles, they will know that I believe the run style of horses at certain distances is important and is still an underused approach when taking into account all punters as a whole. For the new readers, I will briefly discuss what is meant by run style before doing some digging. In essence, run style is the position a horse takes up very early on in the race. These are split into the following four categories:

Led (4) – front runners; horse or horses that take an early lead; Prominent (3) – horses that track the pace close behind the leader(s); Mid Division (2) – horses that race mid pack; Held Up (1) – horses that race at, or near the back of the field early.

The number in brackets is the run style score that is assigned to each section. These numbers can be a useful tool for crunchers like myself as they can be used to create different numerical representations.

When analysing Dundalk run style, and indeed later when analysing the draw, I will be looking at individual distances – mainly the shorter ones with the main focus being 8+ runner handicaps. The shorter distances are more prone to ‘bias’ both in terms of run style and draw.

Dundalk Racecourse 5f Run Style Bias

Let's look at the shortest trip first. Below are the run style (pace) figures taken from the Query Tool  for the period since the resurfacing (12/7/20 to 31/8/22):

 

 

Early leaders / front runners have had a strong advantage it seems, albeit from a relatively modest sample. This is a pattern that we have seen over the minimum trip of 5f at several courses, both on the all weather and on turf, especially on turning tracks; so, despite the sample size, the chances are that this front running bias is likely to continue. The A/E (Actual vs Expected) indices and Impact Values (IV) also correlate strongly which gives more confidence to the findings*. Combining win and placed percentages (each way) also seems to confirm the bias:

*For more on A/E and IV, as well as PRB, see this post

 

 

Hold up horses have a dreadful record in handicaps over five furlongs at Dundalk: a front runner is roughly four times more likely to make the frame than any individual hold up horse.

I looked back at the 5f data before the resurfacing of the track, going back as far as I could to 2009, and the front running bias existed then, too. The win percentage of 16.1% and the win / placed percentage of 40.3% are slightly below the more recent figures posted by front runners, but they were still much stronger than any other run style category during that time frame.

My conclusion is that the surface change has not made it more difficult to win from the front in 5f handicaps, indeed it has perhaps made it easier. The next year or two will help to confirm or deny this early view.

Before moving onto to 6f handicaps, I decided to dig a bit deeper into the more recent 5f stats and I looked at the performance of front running handicappers in terms of percentage of rivals beaten (PRB). This is a measure to help with determining the strength of a bias, and it helps by awarding every runner in every qualifying race with a 'score' based on the number of rivals they beat. The winner will have a score of 1.00 (100% of rivals beaten) and the last placed horse will have a score of 0.00 (0% of rivals beaten). The fifth horse home in a nine-horse race, for instance, will have beaten four rivals (6th, 7th, 8th and 9th) and lost to four rivals (the first four home) for a PRB of 0.50 (50% of rivals beaten).

A score of 0.55 or higher is considered a good advantage, while 0.45 or lower can be viewed as a negative.

Getting back to Dundalk five furlong handicaps, I found that front runners over this trip had a PRB of 0.64. This is further proof of the advantage front runners have. I did the same calculations for hold up horses, too, and their PRB stood at a lowly 0.40.

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SIDEBAR: How I calculated PRB for this article

PRB figures can be found on Geegeez in different areas. For example if you click on the record of a horse you will see something like the following:

 

 

Here we have not just the win, placed, profit, prize money data, but also the PRB figures. In this case the turf PRB (0.62), all-weather PRB (0.52) and the overall PRB (0.57). You can get this PRB info also when clicking on the records of trainers, jockeys and sires.

PRB figures are also shared in the Draw Analyser:

 

 

In this example (taken from Chester) we see the PRB figures back up the win% data showing a strong low draw bias and, particularly, a negative bias for high-drawn horses.

The PRB figures shared earlier for front runners and hold up horses in 5f handicaps at Dundalk were not taken directly from a page on the site; rather, I manually calculated them. It was not difficult to do and I’ll now offer a quick explanation of how I calculated that front running figure of 0.64 (in case you want to examine this type of idea yourself).

Firstly, in the Query Tool I looked for all horses that had gained a 4 pace rating in 5f 8+ handicaps:

 

 

This generated the following results:

 

 

These are the figures seen at the start of this article is the very first table. From here I clicked on the qualifier tab, thus:

 

 

With 20 qualifiers per page, there were 3 pages of qualifiers in total. I copied each page of data and pasted into Microsoft Excel. I then created two new columns using a simple formula – ‘Rivals beaten’ and ‘Rivals Not Beaten’:

 

 

 

I then totalled up the Rivals Beaten column (286) and the Rivals Not Beaten column (161). To calculate the PRB figure you add together the two totals (447) and divide the Rivals Beaten number into this total (286 divided by 447). This gives us the 0.64 figure shown earlier.

I personally will do these run style PRB calculations for other courses now unless the data set is too big. Copying and pasting a few pages of qualifiers is relatively quick; however, doing it, say, for 100 pages is probably going above and beyond!

SIDEBAR ENDS

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I have also looked at the 5f non-handicaps stats – data is limited as there have only been 17 qualifying races (with 8+ runners). However, the win / win & placed (each way) stats suggest a strong front running edge here too:

 

 

All the stats I have shared do seem to point to a strong front running bias over 5f at Dundalk regardless of race type.

Below is a PRB heat map overlaying draw thirds and run styles for 8+ runner handicaps at Dundalk since 2020:

 

Dundalk 5f: Percentage of rivals beaten (PRB) draw / pace (run style) heat map

 

It is clear that low and led/prominent, or indeed almost any led/prominent position is hugely more beneficial than being waited with further back.

 

Dundalk Racecourse 6f Run Style Bias

Up a furlong now to six furlongs, and a look at the handicap run style stats over this distance since the resurfacing work; again 8+ runner races only to qualify:

 

 

At first glance these stats suggest that front runners have a slightly stronger edge over this extra furlong. The IV for front runners of 2.7 is high; as is the 1.79 A/E index.

Here are the win and placed percentages (each way):

 

 

There is a strong correlation here when comparing the each way stats with the win only stats – they paint the same picture.

Looking at the data from before the resurface (all the way back to 2009), front runners won just over 16% of races so the bias was evident but maybe not quite as strong. Hold up horses had a win percentage of 5% which is a bit below the more recent figure.

A look now at the PRB figures for front runners versus hold up horses since July 2020. Front runners have a huge PRB of 0.68, while hold up horses are down with a PRB of 0.43. These are similar to the 5f figures as one would probably expect. (These were calculated using Excel as outlined above).

It makes sense to share the non-handicap stats as I did over 5f. Here is a graphic of the win / win and placed (each way) run style percentages for non-handicap races over 6f:

 

 

In terms of win percentages, prominent racers have nudged ahead of front runners, but when we look at the win & placed (each way) figures, front runners lead once more. The strongest aspect of these data, it seems, is the quite dreadful win record for horses that race off the pace either in mid-division or held up: both run style win percentages loiter below 3%. This from 34 races giving us a small but probably satisfactory sample size. 

All the 6f handicap statistics point to the fact that front runners have a very strong edge. This advantage looks even more potent than over 5f. If this is the case, then perhaps it is down to the fact that over 6f the full turn comes into play; over 5f, because of the chute, there is effectively only a half turn (see first image at the top of this post). This is just conjecture, but it feels like a plausible suggestion. In non-handicaps, prominent racers and front runners combine to have a monster edge over those midfield and hold up horses in the first quarter mile or so.

When reviewing the draw / run style heat map we again see the difficulty slow starters face in getting competitive:

Dundalk 6f: Percentage of rivals beaten (PRB) draw / pace (run style) heat map

 

Dundalk Racecourse 7f Run Style Bias

Let's move on to 7f now (12/7/20 to 31/8/22):

 

 

Front runners are not the most successful group over this range; over seven furlongs, the accolade goes to prominent racers. There is still a run style bias in play here with runners close up or on the pace early having an edge over those further back. What is noticeable at most tracks is that the front-running win percentage tends to drop as the distance increases past the shortest races distances of five and six furlongs. This is mainly because the horses behind the early leader have more time to make their challenge and can eventually get to the front themselves.

Looking at the long term data going back to 2009 up to the time the course was resurfaced, front runners won 11.8% so they were slightly more successful during that period. However, a change of one percentage point is not statistically significant. It looks like the 7f run style picture has not really changed much since the renovation work.

7f non-handicaps have a similar spread of results since the resurfacing occurred – front runners have an edge with a 13% success rate; prominent racers 11%; midfield 9% and hold up horses were worse off again at just 4% (though there is some selection bias in the latter cohort due to horses of very limited ability, or those not yet ready or able to show their full ability, sometimes running in non-handicaps).

This time, the PRB heat map overlaying draw and run style is less conclusive, but it does suggest middle to high and not held up could be beneficial.

 

Dundalk 7f: Percentage of rivals beaten (PRB) draw / pace (run style) heat map

 

Dundalk Racecourse 1m Run Style Bias

The stats are similar over a mile with regards front runners – those most forwardly placed have won 11% of races in the past two years. Their A/E index stands at 1.13 and Win Impact Value at 1.48 suggesting a small edge still. Having said that, it is not a course/distance combination where I would looking to use run style bias as a key part in my selection process.

 

*

 

In conclusion, looking at run style as a whole across the shorter distances, front runners have a clear advantage over sprint trips (5f-6f) in handicaps. In non-handicaps this is true over 5f and to a lesser extent over 6f. Having said that, hold up horses and horses that race mid-division early really struggle over five and six furlongs regardless of race type. Over 7f (both handicaps and non-handicaps), horses that front run or race prominently have had the edge over horses that race mid-pack or at the back early. Once we get to 1 mile and further it becomes a relatively even playing field.

 

Draw Bias at Dundalk Racecourse

With the draw I like to compare recent time frames of a similar length. This is because draw patterns can (and do!) change at any time. Also, at Dundalk they have adjusted the rails on the home turn, putting in a false rail which potentially has ramifications for the draw. This change occurred more than five years ago so it makes sense not to include races before the false rail was introduced. Hence I will be looking at 8+ runner handicap draw data from July 12th 2020 to August 31st 2022, which is clearly the key data, but then comparing it with the prior two years before the resurfacing and after the false rail addition (going back to the start of 2018). Still with me? Good!

When I look at the draw my first port of call is to split the starting stall numbers into three roughly equal thirds and compare win percentages; percentages of around 33% across the board give us a completely level playing field in terms of the draw, deviations from that may imply an advantage or disadvantage.

 

Dundalk Racecourse 5f Draw Bias

Since the resurfacing in 2020 here are the draw splits over 5f (8+ runner handicaps):

 

 

There looks to be a clear edge to lower drawn horses here with those drawn very high struggling commensurately. Let us look now at the data in terms of percentage of rivals beaten (PRB).

 

 

This backs up the win% breakdown showing good correlation, though perhaps not as striking as in pure win percentage terms. Another snippet worth sharing is that horses drawn five or lower have won 69% of the races from just 44.5% of the total runners.

Time to compare the win percentages from this post-renovation period with data from the two years or so prior, specifically 1st January 2018 to 31st March 2020:

 

 

The results are very similar and the sample sizes are virtually identical. It could be that the new surface has slightly strengthened the low draw bias; it will be interesting to monitor the results of the next 12 months to see if this is the case.

As far as the draw is concerned I rarely look at non-handicap data unless I have a huge sample size. Here we have less than 20 races and so it is probably not a worthwhile proposition to dig into the numbers.

 

Dundalk Racecourse 6f Draw Bias

Below are the  6f  draw data by thirds:

 

 

There have been nearly 60 races so we have a decent sample size with which to work; low draws seem to have a strong edge, but my initial enthusiasm is tempered by the PRB figures:

 

 

This is a good example of why digging deeper into data is important and why we need to be cautious of small samples, even when they're relatively large in the context of horseracing analysis. The figures here suggest a slight lower to middle bias exists but nothing more. We need to be wary of that 50.8 win% for the bottom third of the draw, which is almost certainly inflated. The each way figures for each third are also virtually identical, which lends more credence to the PRB figures.

Looking at the data from 1st Jan 2018 to 31st March 2020, I would suggest a strong low draw bias was in existence as the win percentages and the PRB data correlate strongly this time. Win percentages first:

 

 

These are the equivalent PRB figures:

 

 

0.59 is a huge PRB figure for the lowest section of the draw. Hence my reading of the draw at Dundalk over 6f is that the new surface has some an effect in nullifying a previous low draw bias. Given the choice I’d still prefer to be drawn low, but it is marginal. Essentially I would not see the draw as a major factor over 6f at Dundalk.

 

Dundalk Racecourse 7f Draw Bias

Below are the 7f data and the draw splits since the course was resurfaced are as follows:

 

 

It's relatively even this time, although middle draws have won a shade more often than the other two sections. The PRB figures are as follows:

 

 

These figures correlate with the win stats suggesting if there is any edge, it lies with the middle draws. Previous to this (1/1/18 to 31/3/20), the PRB split had been similar with 0.54 for middle draws once again, but the 0.47 and 0.50 were reversed with low draws at 0.50 and high at 0.47. It seems therefore that a middle draw looks to have a small advantage over 7f but it does not look strong enough to easily exploit.

Other Dundalk Draw Observations / Conclusions

I have looked at draw data for a mile and beyond but the thirds are very even and essentially it looks like only the 5f distance is of real interest here in terms of a usable draw bias. At the minimum range, a low draw does seem to have a tangible edge and is something we should factor into our selection process.

If you, like me, are interested in exotic ‘draw based’ bets, note that a profit could been secured in 8+ runner 5f handicaps (12/7/20 to 31/8/22) combining the five lowest drawn horses in full cover tricasts: this would have provided four winning payouts and returned a profit of 52p in the £. It should be noted that a five-horse combination tricast/trifecta bet involves 60 bets so it can become a costly wager during a long losing run. Of course the beauty of tricasts is that payouts can be massive, which is why punters like me are lured into them!

*

That concludes part one of this Dundalk analysis and it’s time to research part two. My study to date suggests that, in terms of run style and draw, we have the following biases to work with this winter:

Handicap biases

5f – front running bias; low draw bias

6f – front running bias

 

Non-handicap biases

5f – front running bias;

6f – front runners/prominent racer bias

 

Dundalk, as a track, does not offer as wide a range of biases as, say, Chester, but over five and six furlongs the run style edge in particular should give us a leg up over the uninformed.

PART TWO OF THIS ARTICLE CAN BE FOUND HERE >

- DR

Monday Musings: Doncaster Pays its Respects

/in /by

They stood in the owners’ lunchroom at Doncaster yesterday on Mike Cattermole’s cue and perfectly observed the requested two minutes’ silence, writes Tony Stafford. Then, on the big screen behind the excellent cold and hot buffet, was the unforgettable image of Her Late Majesty’s greatest moment as a racehorse owner – never mind winning the Gold Cup with Estimate – the grainy St Leger victory of her home-bred filly Dunfermline in 1977, her Silver Jubilee.

Alone now of the principals of that moment, the indefatigable Willie Carson is still very much with us. With that distinctive head looking down style, along with the rhythmic punching action, he kept Dunfermline in touch with the super horse that was the previously unbeaten and never again vanquished dual Arc winner, Alleged, and Lester Piggott.

Unbelievably, the filly can be seen closing the gap that Lester began to extend once taking the lead at the four-furlong pole. In the last furlong, the filly joined her rival and inexorably gained the advantage. You can see Lester pointedly easing Alleged in the last few strides – no sign of a rat-tat-tat response once he knew the Vincent O’Brien colt was beaten.

Seven years earlier, the same peerless pair, O’Brien and Piggott, had arrived at Doncaster with a similarly unbeaten American-bred colt in the shape of Nijinsky. In his case he did indeed win the St Leger but his exertions in becoming the first (and last) Triple Crown winner since Bahram in 1935 prefaced defeats in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe and Champion Stakes.

Alleged, a late developer whose fragile forelegs had persuaded connections to race him in Europe despite his dirt pedigree, did not contest either of the earlier UK Classics. Piggott’s restraint on Town Moor left him fresh enough to win his first Arc three weeks later when Dunfermline did well to finish fourth. He followed up impressively in Europe’s Championship race twelve months later before retiring to stud in Kentucky.

In another uncanny moment, as the Dunfermline race was being shown, and the Royal hearse was making its six-hour roadside-packed way from Balmoral to Edinburgh, trainer Ben Hanbury happened to sit down at the next table to myself. We showed our respective respects without talking and I’m not sure quite how I recognised the former Newmarket trainer, soberly dressed, without the colourful trousers he always wore at Keeneland where Midway Lady was bought.

She won five of her six races and was unbeaten at three in 1986 when she won both the 1,000 Guineas and Oaks. Injury prevented any further active involvement but she bred an Oaks winner in Eswarah, trained by Michael Jarvis, in 2005. You guessed it, Midway Lady was a daughter – the best daughter – of Alleged.

Earlier, on my way to the track, I listened to a Radio 5 Live broadcast where I’m sure I heard that Dunfermline, situated between Perth and Edinburgh, was to be one of the towns where the car could be seen.

I bumped into fellow Arsenal fan and Derby-winning jockey Willie Ryan (Benny The Dip, 1997) in the seats outside the Press Room as they milled around before the start of the big race. He had driven Frankie Dettori to the races, laughing as he related the former champion had cried off riding Emily Dickinson for the Coolmore team to partner another filly, Ralph Beckett’s Haskoy, for whom a £50,000 supplementary entry fee was paid.

“I’ve backed Emily”, said Willie. “Frankie keeps switching off winners”, he laughed. Ryan agreed that to consider the St Leger in any ground as a mile and three-quarters race was mistaken. “It’s a long 14 furlongs anyway, but here with that five-furlong run-in it’s really a two-mile grind”, he said.

Ryan works for Charlie Appleby in his day job – “From the floor, not on top anymore”, but went on to say that the trip on that track would be the worry for New London, the favourite for the race. His stamina appeared to run out in much the way of Alleged all those 45 years ago as he finished third behind the Roger Varian-trained Eldar Eldarov.

Frankie got one thing right, Haskoy going past the post three places ahead of Emily Dickinson in second, but what he didn’t do correctly was to satisfy the stewards that there was nothing wrong with his riding. They found he had caused interference to fourth home Giavellotto, trained by Marco Botti and ridden by Neil Callan.

They demoted Haskoy to fourth, promoting Giavellotto to third and also giving New London a knock-on promotion to second. It’s quite a big deal in prizemoney terms, second and third both doubling up their original earnings while Haskoy, far from gaining a profit on the deal after the £50k supplementary fee, is now in deficit. No wonder Beckett, “under the interference rules”, is planning an appeal.

If the last few days have been a changing of the guard in terms of the Monarch, it was very much a similar situation in the race itself. The previous five winners had all either been sons or grandsons of Galileo. Yesterday he didn’t have a representative and the only second generation runners were sixth-placed 150-1 shot El Habeeb, by Al Rifai, and last home Lizzie Jean (100-1), by Nathaniel. He died last summer, so a maximum of two more crops of three-year-olds can represent him as Classic contenders.

The winner, third-placed over the line New London and fifth home Emily Dickinson were all by Dubawi, Galileo’s sparring partner for the past decade. Now, with a freer field for a few years at least, he can enjoy a King Charles III-like interregnum at the top of the stallion charts until the next King of the Sires comes along.

For Varian it was a second St Leger triumph, following Kingston Hill eight years ago, but a first for David Egan, the highly personable and talented son of weighing room legend and shrewd bloodstock dealer, John.

I had the good fortune to be representing Jonathan Barnett, one of the owners in Varian’s sprinter Dusky Lord, along with part-owner Jennie Allen at her home course. We stood in the paddock together with trainer and rider before the race. Dusky Lord had a near impossible draw but ran well. I was delighted for both trainer and rider, for whom Eldar Eldarov looks a stayer to follow.

Over in Ireland Kyprios kept up the pressure in the staying ranks, the four-year-old seeing off fellow older gentleman Hamish in the Irish St Leger. By then his Goodwood Cup victim Trueshan had failed to deliver odds of 9-2 laid on in the Doncaster Cup, his erratic steering in the last 100 yards viewed low down from right on the winning line as Hollie tried to straighten him for a final flourish. Coltrane, expertly ridden by one of this site’s ambassadors, David Probert, was a deserved beneficiary of what Alan King clearly believes is the memory of Trueshan’s hard race at Goodwood behind Kyprios and Stradivarius on faster than ideal ground.

It was gloom all round for the Trueshan team of owners. Their best-known member, Andrew Gemmell, had taken the 10.30 train from King’s Cross, travel time 90 minutes and arrived via a taxi five minutes before Trueshan’s race – scheduled off time 2.45.

All through what remained of the afternoon, Tony Hunt, Andrew’s “eyes” for the day monitored the denuded Sunday service which promised delays and cancellations, so I thought it appropriate on such a day to offer a lift to Central London.

We had a lovely three hours listening to the Test match, reminiscing about the Queen – yes, I did meet her and shared a few words when she visited the Daily Telegraph and talked about reading the racing page every day! – and learning the latest about Andrew’s great staying hurdler, Paisley Park. What a day!

- TS

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