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Roving Reports: An Unexpected Shower

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So when I left you last, York was to be my next port of call, with a weekend on the Knavesmire on the cards, writes David Massey. I was hoping to be working in the ring, but circumstances once again meant I was on the rails for both days. 

Friday night was another of the music nights, with a second chance for me to see Madness after Haydock the week before. The evening can be summed up easily enough, with business no more than steady but results in our favour. It was a different crowd than Haydock's night, who were there for a laugh, although the stewards clearly holding no truck with anyone wearing the regulatory fez in the County enclosure hardly helped the atmosphere on our side. 

Saturday was also a music event, with The Sugababes after racing. As you'd expect, a mixed crowd, with some there for the racing but most for the music. Now, some novice crowds are easily trained, and by that I mean within a race or two you've got them asking for selections by numbers, not names, and they've twigged an each-way bet costs twice what they ask for, but sadly not this lot. As a collective, they aren't getting what I'm asking of them. By race five I've long given up and have accepted defeat. The only reason I have caved in is, quite simply, I'm not that busy. This is a Saturday afternoon at York, and yet there are long periods of not taking a bet. I look over at Gordon on the Keith Johnson pitch. Gordon, who has been doing the job longer than anyone cares to remember, is shaking his head in disbelief. If you can't be busy on a Saturday afternoon at York, then we are going to have to accept that things are never going to be what they were pre-Covid. The new normal, indeed. 

I stay over in Wakefield after racing, with Pontefract on the Sunday. I will not name the place I stayed in overnight, suffice to say if you've ever seen an episode of 24 Hours In Police Custody, my room wasn't far removed from those that they lock the wrong 'uns up in whilst they collect the evidence. There appeared to be plenty of evidence in my room, to be fair, with some dubious-looking stains on the ceiling, and a beetle or two in what was left of the carpet. I couldn't wait to get out the next morning. It's fair to say I'll not be staying there again. 

The places I stay as I travel around vary. Most of the time it's a Premier Inn, and they're absolutely fine in the main but if I'm booking myself into an Airbnb, then the quality varies. The worst two I've ever stayed in have both been in Brighton, with one a couple of steps up from a Stalag (a tin of evaporated milk for your tea/coffee, not ideal/Ideal) and in the other I slept on a futon seemingly made of concrete. I've also stayed in one in Hampshire that was essentially a pink boudoir, complete with frills, that looked nothing like it did in the photos. One of the best was near Wetherby, where the lady in charge threw in a cooked breakfast the next morning for nothing. I ought to have stayed there rather than Wakefield, thinking about it. 

It's been so long since I've seen any meaningful rain that it came as a shock at Pontefract the next day. It was supposedly showers from 4pm according to the forecasters but they couldn't have been more wrong. It started raining steadily from 1pm, a bit on and off at first, but it got heavier as the afternoon went on. Pontefract gave out a load of plastic ponchos to the crowd to keep them dry, a good initiative. The letters on the back of the ponchos were suppose to spell out PONTEFRACT if you lined them up in the right order, but it seems they ran out of ponchos after the first T. As such, lots of OOOO's, POTS, STOP, and TONS walking around but as you'd rightly expect at Ponte Carlo, no fops. 

The rain gets heavier still just as we are packing the gear away. You remember me telling you last time that now is a great time to work for one of the books, as they are short of workers? Well, this is the bit I didn't tell you in the brochure. By the time it's all away I'm absolutely soaked through and, worse, the quick route to the car has been cut off by the crowd, who have stayed to watch the Tina Turner tribute act. It's less Steamy Windows and more Windscreen Wipers now but fair play, plenty have stuck around for a singsong. I'm grateful to get home by half seven that night and the shower is most welcome. 

The final week of July sees me take in Yarmouth, where Bob Cooper will tell me to "get lost" after his Quadpot bites the dust (that after his Placepot had bitten the dust the race before). Bob is an absolute joy to be around, there's nobody drier or funnier when he's on a roll, and I love bumping into him on my travels. I stay in nearby Acle that night and when I wake Tuesday morning, there are five police motorcycles and one police car outside the hotel. I think to myself, "well, you've had a good run, they were always going to catch up with you one day" before, in fact, they troop off into Starbucks to grab a morning coffee. The Gunfight at the OK Corral is not going to happen. Not today, anyway. 

And finally, before Goodwood, it's Sandown and Nile Rogers. Business is good, the crowd are happy and having a bet, and it's a very enjoyable night. Sadly, though, the last is a bit of a farce, with a withdrawal that barely anyone hears, and a stewards enquiry called as the winner and second come together near the line. No problem so far, but then the enquiry drags on a bit and Nile and Chic can wait no longer. They get the Good Times going whilst there are still queues waiting to get paid out, only now nobody can hear a thing, and we've no idea what's happened as far as the enquiry has gone, or indeed what the Rule 4 is on the withdrawal. Blank faces all round and we have to take to social media to find out the relevant information. 

I say again to the courses - USE THE BIG SCREENS! Is it that difficult to get across the relevant information everyone needs? Thankfully we have an understanding crowd, but it is still almost half an hour after the last before everyone has been paid out, and I apologise for the wait. I'm almost apologising for the track, which I shouldn't have to do. It's not my fault nobody could hear any announcements, yet I somehow feel some responsibility for the delays. 

An hour after the last, the gear is in the car, and we are off to Guildford, which will be our Goodwood base for the rest of the week. And yes, before you say anything, that does mean two hours of driving to the course and back every day. Another thing I forgot to mention in the brochure. Never mind, the Premier Inn has a walk-in shower. Oh, the luxury...

- DM

Monday Musings: The New King of the Stayers

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Listening to one racing show last week I was surprised to learn that the broadcaster talking about the Goodwood Cup had not known the race distance had once been two miles and five furlongs rather than the two miles of nowadays, writes Tony Stafford. Why would he, he probably hadn’t been born when the last marathon was staged in 1990?

Funnily enough, as they went over the winning line on Tuesday, the thought crossed my mind that if the longer distance – midway between the two and a half of the Gold Cup and the just short of two miles and threequarters of the Queen Alexandra – was still in operation, the verdict would not have been any different.

We were used in the days of Ardross and Le Moss between 1979 and 1982, when both won the Gold Cup at Ascot twice and then three Goodwood Cups between them, to small fields being the order of the day.

They used to doddle around and then the favourite would generally put in a burst two furlongs out and take the race. So far removed were they from the run-of-the-mill staying handicap performers of their time that few were ever persuaded to take them on.

Not today though. Just as at Royal Ascot and the Gold Cup, first prize here was £283k, with places starting at £107k, through £53k, £26k, £13k and £6,000 for sixth, the lavishly endowed Glorious Goodwood meeting, backed by Qatar, the money was identical all the way down. Nowadays, there’s nothing lost in brave defeats with that sort of remuneration to go with them. There are plenty of poorer prizes around.

The Gold Cup had revealed a new star, although the betting before Ascot’s showpiece left us in no doubt that Kyprios was “expected”.

Slinking away after his fourth in the Lingfield Derby Trial in May last year, Kyprios looked anything but a potential champion stayer. But the Aidan O’Brien recuperation centre has no peer and, when he came back 11 months later to win a Navan Listed race at 5/1 over 14 furlongs, the son of guess who was on his way. You guessed, Galileo, of course.

Bookmakers were alerted now, so when he went on to a four-horse Group 3 at Leopardstown three weeks later, he was a 1/10 chance and won by 14 lengths. In the Gold Cup, he won narrowly from last year’s Derby runner-up, Mojo Star, in a race where Stradivarius took most of the headlines. His defeat was not the main issue, but it was more significant for the sacking, temporarily for the Gosden stable, and permanently by owner Bjorn Neilsen, of the champ’s long-time partner Frankie Dettori.

Mojo Star wasn’t there on Tuesday, but Stradivarius was, with a new partner in Andrea Atzeni, and also Trueshan, enabled to take his chance to repeat last year’s defeat of Stradivarius in the race by the bountiful employment of the Goodwood watering system.

On a day when there were plenty of owners and trainers grumbling at the significantly altered ground, it brought to the race the treasure of Trueshan who had been pulled out late both for the Gold Cup and Queen Alexandra after a couple of anxious and eventually frustrated weather watches by trainer Alan King and his owners.

He did get his June date though, up at Newcastle the following week when, from a mark of 120, he carried 10st8lb to an unthinkable win in the Northumberland Plate, causing the handicapper to put him up to 124.  So what a race we had in prospect and that’s without considering the other sextet who wanted to push on into the elite grouping.

Most obvious of these was Coltrane. Andrew Balding’s progressive stayer was second in the Chester Cup, won the Ascot Stakes and then a Sandown Listed (by ten lengths). Add the Group 1 winning Irish mare Princess Zoe, and Melbourne Cup bound Enemy and you have the deepest of deep races.

Sometimes an appetising prospect can fall flat, but not this time. In the home straight, with outsider Thunderous leading narrowly from Kyprios, the other three top contenders were winding up for the finale. As Thunderous dropped away leaving Kyprios in front, Trueshan loomed up on the outside, causing commentator Simon Holt to anticipate him and Hollie Doyle going straight past and win the Cup for the second time.

Then, on the inside, having extricated his mount from a brief mini-pocket, Atzeni challenged with the indomitable Stradivarius and his run proved longer lasting than Trueshan’s. But having faced both challenges, Ryan Moore, riding as well as ever this summer, asked his mount for a response and readily saw them off.

Riding rhythmically with his stick in his left hand, Moore called in Kyprios’ hidden resources and the answer was instantaneous. Kyprios was going away at the finish and although the winning margin was only a neck it was clear-cut. It was generally accepted that the early pace had been steady, but they came home to such good effect that the time was comfortably below standard.

Afterwards Moore suggested that, if there had been a stronger pace, Kyprios would have won more easily. Only four, he has years ahead of him and he could possibly run up a sequence in the Gold Cup and Goodwood Cup to match Stradivarius and Yeats, his own much-admired forerunner at Ballydoyle. Had it been at 2m5f, all three would have still been at the forefront and you have to conclude that the result would have been no different but maybe more emphatic in favour of the younger horse.

The best news was that Stradivarius, tipped for retirement leading up to Goodwood, may now go on to the Group 2 Lonsdale Stakes at York. Worth half as much as the Goodwood Cup, victory there would still be a worthwhile day out as the prospective stallion continues his farewell tour.

*

I had a nice chat with Charlie Appleby on Tuesday when he was still disappointed that his 2,000 Guineas and St James’s Palace Stakes winner Coroebus was unable to take up his attempt at ending Baaeed’s flawless record in the Sussex Stakes. With eight from eight in just over a year and a passable imitation of Frankel in terms of his career stopping off points, William Haggas’s four-year-old was the inevitable focus of attention, but Appleby did well to dig out another Classic winner of 2022 to tackle him.

Modern Games won the Poule d’Essai des Poulains (French,2.000 Guineas) on his comeback this year, and although twice a beaten favourite in Group 1’s in France since - when third to Vadeni in the French Derby and then a close fifth to Tenebrism at Deauville - he is a solid top-level performer.

Appleby’s sharp footwork brought a £215k second place in a race worth precisely double the Goodwood Cup. He edged out last year’s Sussex Stakes heroine, Alcohol Free, who most recently had won the July Cup at Newmarket. Baaeed, held up, breezed past them both with economy and disdain. The margin in distance was one and a half lengths; in class, considerably more.

I loved Haggas’s assessment of the performance:

“It was like riding the Tour De France on a motorbike.”

True words, and some of his fellow trainers, who day to day struggle to match his skilfully-placed and “thrown-in” handicappers, often have a similar sinking feeling.

- TS

Trainers in Two-Year-Old Races, Part 3

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This is the third in a series of articles where I have delved into the performance of trainers over the past few years, writes Dave Renham. I have been looking at UK races over the past six full seasons (1st January 2016 to 31st December 2021) and my focus, as in the first two episodes is two-year-old (2yo) races; all profits / losses have been calculated to Industry Starting Price using £1 level stakes. These figures could be improved by taking early prices with Best Odds Guaranteed and / or using the exchanges. In fact I have referenced Betfair SP profits where appropriate in what follows. For this piece, in addition to the Geegeez Query Tool, I will be using a couple of external databases to provide additional colour.

Parts 1 and 2 can be read here and here.

Horse career starts

My first port of call in this part three is quite an important one. 2yos are the youngest racehorses and hence are very inexperienced when it comes to racing. This can be seen when we compare the overall strike rate of 2yos on debut against subsequent runs: 

 

 

As can be seen, debutants prevail around 8% of the time, but this improves by roughly 1.5 times as we move to second and subsequent runs. That gives us a baseline to use, as it were, when we are examining individual trainers.

 

Trainers with 2yos making their debut

It's now time to drill down into individual trainer records with 2yo debutants. I have focused on those trainer who have saddled at least 75 debutants over the past six seasons. They are ordered by strike rate (Win%):

 

 

These are the top 20 in terms of win strike rate. All of them are in advance of the average 8% figure for all 2yo debutants shown above. A few are in profit, but in general these trainers have had one or more big priced winners that have skewed the figures. 

Charlie Appleby, who figured prominently in the first article of the series, has an outstanding strike rate with such runners, hitting his mark nearly 28% of the time which is quite amazing. Having said that his runners have still shown a loss to Industry SP. However, he did manage a small £7.99 profit (ROI +2.4%) to BSP.

What becomes more impressive when you dig deeper into Appleby’s figures is that over a third of his 2yos made their debut at Newmarket. Thus his runners are contesting some of the very best 2yo races. In fact, from limited data, he has been impressive at both the top courses of Ascot (6 wins from 15) and Goodwood (4 wins from 7) also. Finally when it comes to Appleby his record in sprints (5-6f) is particularly good with 32 wins from 78 (SR 41.0%) for a profit to SP of £26.21 (ROI +33.6%). Of course, he does also train some of the most regally bred and expensive juveniles.

Going back to his Newmarket 2yo debut stats, it is worth comparing his record there with other trainers. Below is a graph showing the strike rates of trainers who have had at least 30 2yo debutant runs at Newmarket.

 

 

As we see only Ralph Beckett is near the same ballpark as Appleby, and we have several excellent trainers with a strike rate of under 10%. In fact six of them are under 6%, with Michael Bell on zero. Clearly, Moulton Paddocks have their horses ready to roll from day one.

 

Trainers with 2yos on their second career start

Onto second runs now and, again, I am using a minimum of 75 runs and looking at the top 20 in terms of strike rate (Win%).

 

 

As one might expect, these trainers have secured significantly higher strike rates compared to the top 20 trainer debutant figures. A handful are in profit once more, and four of them have produced impressive A/E indices of 1.00 or above (Balding 1.02, Dods 1.21, Charlton 1.00, Dalgleish 1,13).

Charlie Appleby, who was the only trainer with a strike rate over 20% for his first starters, now stands at over 35%, with a further eight trainers having secured a 20% or better figure here.

At this juncture it makes sense to look at the one of the key comparisons; namely individual trainer strike rates with their second starters and comparing them with their debutant strike rate. All trainers who have had at least 75 runners in each group are shown. I have ordered them by 1st-2nd Ratio, a calculation where I have divided the 2nd start Win% by the debut [1st] Win%.

 

 

There is a good number of trainers whose 2yos really improve from first to second start. I mentioned near the beginning of the article that the benchmark ratio figure for the Win% improvement is around 1.5x, and 30 of the 48 trainers in the table have matched or exceeded that mark. However, care is needed when it comes to trainers whose debutants have a very low strike rate, especially those near the top of the table. Their 1st to 2nd Start Win% Ratios are skewed slightly as a result of their poor debut stats.

A comparison of the A/E indices now using the same idea of dividing the 2nd start figure by the debut one. A look at the highest ratios first:

 

 

Most of those that were in the top section of the Strike Rate Win% Ratios reappear here. However, the more interesting comparison comes when we analyse those with the lowest ratios:

 

 

The 14 lowest trainer A/E figures are shown, but Charlie Appleby and (Charlie and) Mark Johnston, who you'd be forgiven for thinking would be in that group (due to their low position in the Strike Rate Win% Ratio table), are not. In fact the Johnston A/E ratio is 1.00 and Appleby is 1.01. This implies their debutants and second starters offer similar value.

 

Trainers with 2yos on their third career start

I am not going to go into too much detail here, but I do want to share a top five of the strongest snippets that I have found:

  1. Sir Michael Stoute had 65 2yos making their third career start and a highly impressive 22 have won. This equates to a strike rate close to 34%. Returns of 10p in the £ to Industry SP have been achieved. This figure is doubled if using BSP. A staggering statistic is that 16 of his 21 runners that started as clear favourite have won.
  1. Saeed bin Suroor’s runners have won just shy of 30% of races on their third start. This improves to 40% (12 wins from 30) when looking at class 5 events.
  1. Andrew Balding has a 23.7% strike rate with third career starters (2yos), but beware runners on the all-weather in November and December – just 1 of 21 have won for him under those conditions.
  1. A few trainers have a big drop off from 2nd to 3rd starters. Clive Cox’s strike rate drops from 17% to 10.9%; Michael Dods drops from 17.4% to 8.6%, and David Simcock drops from 18.1% to 4.7%. 32% of Simcock’s runners placed which suggests that he has been unlucky and that this drop off may not be as bad it looks.
  1. Marco Botti has seen a big strike rate improvement with his third career starters. They have won 17.5% of their races compared with 9.1% for his second starters. Sir Mark Prescott sees a similar improvement from a lower starting base (10.7% versus 5.1%).

 

Knowing about all the facts and figures I have shared so far should help you make a more informed choices when analysing certain horses in 2yo races. As I have said many times before, I am a huge fan of having as much data as possible at our disposal.

 

2yo Trainer Odds Analysis

I want to move on and look next at some 2yo trainer market data. This can easily be sourced from the Geegeez Query Tool. I have split the market data in three price brackets – shorter priced runners (4/1 or less); mid-priced runners (9/2 to 9/1); and higher priced runners (10/1 or bigger). I want to look at value and to do this I am going to compare the three Actual vs Expected (A/E) indices of each trainer. [For a refresher on A/E and all of the metrics used on geegeez, check out this post]

The table below is not an exhaustive list but it includes many of the trainers who have appeared in this piece so far. To help with analysing the figures I have coloured any A/E index 1.00 or higher in GREEN, as this represents good value. Any A/E index 0.75 or lower I have coloured in RED as this represents poor value.

 

 

There is so much to consider when betting and ‘value’ is the most important thing. Of course, it is not always easy to know if you have a value price about a runner, and these A/E indices I am sharing with are based on past data. Thus, we cannot say for example that any Marcus Tregoning runner that starts 4/1 or shorter is good value, but we do know that in the past these runners have proved to be. His 1.39 A/E index shows this.

These odds-based trainer A/E indices are worthy of note. For instance, Charlie Appleby, who we have seen to positive effect in this article (and many times previously), can be seen to have an A/E index of just 0.3 for 2yos priced 10/1 or higher. I, for one, would not be interested in any Appleby runner priced in double figures based on that past data.

The Charlton stable, meanwhile, have excellent figures for juveniles sent off 4/1 and shorter (1.16) as well as from 9/2 to 9/1 (1.12): profits of 12p and 19p in the £ respectively. Their record with double figure runners is less good (0.75), and with those longer-priced two-year-old runners they have made losses of just over 27p in the £.

 

2yo Gender of horse analysis

The final piece of research for this article is connected with gender or sex of the horse, again sourced from Geegeez’s Query Tool.

There are more 2yo male runners than female ones; male runs have made up 56% of all runners in past six seasons, females 44%. Also males generally outperform females from a strike rate (Win%) perspective – 12.1% for males versus 9.5% for females. Males also have the edge when comparing A/E indices, with 0.88 (M) playing 0.84 (F), and IVs standing at 1.09 (M) v 0.89 (F). Of course it should be noted that not all 2yo races are mixed sex races – around 64% are races open to both sexes while male only and female only contests make up the other 36%.

I thought it would be interesting to see whether any trainer had a gender bias in their 2yo cohort; especially trainers who have fared better with 2yo fillies as opposed to colts/geldings. Below shows the top ten trainers in terms of producing better results with females as opposed to males. In other words those with the highest Win% Ratio of females to males. To qualify each trainer needed to have had at least 60 runners of each and attained a Win% (SR) with female runners of at least 8%.

 

 

The two stables that catch my eye are those of the Charltons and Roger Varian. Not surprisingly, perhaps, both trainers made a blind level stakes profit to SP on their female runners between 2016 and 2021.

There are another eight trainers who have turned the male/female edge round the other way. They are shown below:

 

 

Teams Crisford, O’Brien (Aidan), Balding and Dascombe all provided positive returns with their female runners to Industry SP. As stated in prior articles, care must be taken with Tom Dascombe since he has moved yards and is no longer retained trainer at Manor House Stables.

In terms of a potential male bias, only four trainers seem to have a strong one; these are Mick Appleby (12.1% v 4.4%), Hughie Morrison (10.9% v 3.7%), David Barron (12.8% v 3.5%) and Alan King (9.4% v 1.4%).

And finally...

This is the last 2yo piece in a series in which I have looked at several different areas hoping to guide you, the reader, to an edge over the crowd. In my next article I’ll begin examining some trainer data related to three-year-old performance, and I am expecting that to stretch to at least two further instalments. I’m heading to the Geegeez Query Tool to start my research right now; maybe I'll see you there?

Until next time...

- DR

Trainers in Two-Year-Old Races, Part 2

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This is the second in a new series of articles where I will examine the performance of trainers over the past few seasons, writes Dave Renham. Throughout the series, I will be using data from 1st January 2016 to 31st December 2021 giving us six full seasons to examine (UK racing only). All profits / losses have been calculated to Industry Starting Price using £1 level stakes. Therefore these figures could be readily improved by using early prices, Best Odds Guaranteed and / or the exchanges.

In the first article of the series I looked at trainers in two-year-old (2yo) races, drilling down into non-handicaps and looking at how the distance of the race affected the results of individual trainers. In this piece I am going to examine course stats and annual breakdowns across all 2yo races, and then I will look specifically at 2yo handicaps. Once again I have used the Geegeez Query Tool as the sole tool for my data crunching.

Course statistics (All 2yo races)

First, then, let's delve into some 2yo trainer course stats. Below is a table of trainers who have achieved a strike rate of 20% or more and produced a profit to Industry SP. To qualify they needed to have at least 35 runners in the six-year period:

 

 

There is a good mix of trainers here; in fact we have 19 different handlers in total. Two appear three times each, the Johnstons and Karl Burke. There were a few other trainer course stats that were close to making it on the main list but just missed out. This was due to either not having quite enough runners, or the strike rate was just below the 20% benchmark I had set. However, I felt these were still worth sharing in a secondary table:

 

 

As can be seen, Archie Watson has made a decent profit at Lingfield on the turf course as well as on the all-weather strip. The Johnston stable appears for a fourth time so let's drill down into the course data in more detail for those most frequently listed trainers:

 

Charlie & Mark Johnston 2yo Course Stats

What follows are some extra nuggets regarding three of the four 'hot Johnston' courses that have been highlighted already:

  1. At Chelmsford, their favourites have done particularly well with 21 wins from 38 (SR 55.3%) for a profit of £12.50. This equates to returns of just under 33p in the £; A/E index also a strong 1.29; IV is 4.03;
  1. 2yos (any odds) that took the early lead at Chelmsford have won 32% of their races (23 wins from 73);
  1. At Bath over 1 mile or further the stable has 7 wins from 20 (SR 35%); over 5 & 6f it is a relatively poor 2 from 19 (SR 10.5%);
  1. Over 1m1f at Epsom the Johnstons (either in tandem or just Mark) have only saddled nine runners but six have won;
  1. Also at Epsom Francis Norton and Silvestre de Sousa both have five wins a piece from just ten and nine Johnston rides respectively.

 

The Johnston stable race all over the country so I thought it worthwhile looking at their 2yo A/E indices and Impact Values at each course (minimum 30 runs). The graph is split into two separate ones so they don’t get too cluttered:

 

 

 

One of the best things about using graphs like this is that you can judge how well the A/E indices and Impact Values correlate. In this case there is a very strong correlation. Also we can see that the courses that were highlighted earlier (Bath, Chelmsford, Epsom and Yarmouth) are four of the eight courses where the A/E index has exceeded 1.00, the others being Ascot, Newbury, Nottingham and Redcar.

The lower parts of the graph for both A/E indices and IVs show that the Johnston record is less good at Carlisle, Chester, Newcastle, Sandown and Thirsk.

These graphs are relatively easy to produce if you have Microsoft Excel as the data generated from the Query Tool can be copied straight into an excel spreadsheet. Hence you could do this with other trainers and their course stats if you had the inclination. In fact you can compare lots of different data from the Query Tool in this way, which is one of the many reasons why I personally use Geegeez so much.

 

Karl Burke 2yo Course Stats

We noted earlier that Karl Burke had good enough two-year-old course stats to make the ‘cut’ at three different tracks, so let us look at his ‘all courses’ data; again I am using graphical form but this time sharing Win Strike Rate percentages and Return on Investment. These can be charted in exactly the same way as per the video above but selecting the 'Win %' and 'ROI' columns. Firstly Win SR%s (again using 30 runs minimum to qualify):

 

 

There are some considerable course fluctuations, which is the case with the majority of trainers. We know already about Burke's excellent record at Carlisle, Nottingham and Pontefract, but on the flip side he seems to have struggled at Haydock, Newmarket and Redcar in particular. Let’s see how the ROI% graph correlates:

 

 

In general the correlation is sound, but the odd big-priced winner does tend to skew the ROI% when compared with the Win SR%. Doncaster has the highest ROI% by far but this is in part due to a 50/1 winner; the Newcastle returns have also been boosted somewhat, this time by a 66/1 winner.

What the Johnston and Burke course data tell us is that performance can vary considerably depending on the course.

 

Trainer Annual Breakdowns of Win Strike in 2yo races

In the first article in the series I compared Charlie Appleby’s annual 2yo runner breakdown in terms of strike rate. Here I am going to extend this to a further 14 trainers. To qualify, these trainers must have had at least 900 2yo runners in the past six seasons with at least 100 runs per season. This gives us a really solid data set to look at.

I will display the data in two ways; firstly in tabular form to display exact strike rates, and secondly in graphic form.

A look at the table first with the numerical strike rates displayed:

 

 

In general these figures look relatively consistent. It is usually easier to discern that by looking at the stats graphically, which I have presented below. Here I have published three trainers on four of the graphs and then two on the final graph.

 

 

Each trainer has a relatively level line although Andrew Balding had quite contrasting fortunes in 2016 compared to 2017 (19.72% dropping to 7.94%). Since then he has been much more consistent. We have to remember that each season the trainers get a different crop of 2yos and quality can fluctuate. So, while trainers are likely to have similar ‘types’ that cost similar money, 2yo crops can vary in class and ability.

 

 

The Johnston stable have had a couple of lean years by their own high standard in the past two seasons. That said, I’ve just checked this season’s figures to date (up to 18th July) and their strike rate for 2022 year is currently just under 23%. There seems to have been a small dip in Mick Channon’s results in the past three seasons and the A/E and IV figures back this up. He's currently hitting around the 10% mark in 2022.

 

 

Once again the figures for this trio are quite similar year on year. Roger Varian's and Ralph Beckett’s performance is similar but it is worth knowing that Beckett tends to offer punters more value.

It is also worth noting that Richard Fahey is having an outlier of a year to date in 2022. His strike rate, at the time of writing, is up nudging 18% and he has been profitable to the tune of 52p in the £. It will be interesting to see if he maintains this uptick for the rest of this season; statistically, it seems unlikely.

 

 

Tim Easterby has plenty of 2yo runners but success has proved hard to come by as can be seen by the green line in the chart above. William Haggas, meanwhile, generally hits close to the 20% mark; 2017 was above average for him whereas 2020 was below par. Tom Dascombe has been a solid performer who could be relied upon to hit around one win in seven on average, but his training career has essentially been reset by the loss of the Manor House Stables retainer - now with Hugo Palmer - and a relocation to Lambourn. He needs to be on the watch list only for the time being.

 

 

Richard Hannon and Karl Burke have figures that correlate closely with each other. They are both currently striking at around 14% for the first half of the 2022 season which is the type of performance level one might expect given the graph.

 

2yo handicaps (nurseries)

2yo handicaps, known as nurseries, begin annually in July and run until the end of the year when, of course, two-year-olds - like all horses - age by a year. Nurseries account for around 20% of all 2yo races in the UK. On average there are approximately 240 such races each year.

Let us first look at all trainers who have had at least 100 runners in nurseries in the past six seasons. I have ordered them by strike rate:

 

 

Ralph Beckett tops the list with an excellent overall record. He is close to scoring once in every four nursery races which is top drawer. Messrs. Dascombe, Ryan, Cox, Hills, Dunlop and Tinkler are the only other trainers to be profitable out of the 30 in the list.

 

Ralph Beckett in 2yo Handicaps

It is worth digging a bit deeper into the Beckett 2yo handicap stats. Here are my key findings:

  1. In five of the six seasons Beckett has achieved a strike rate in excess of 20%, thus showing excellent consistency overall;
  1. He has a much better record with male horses compared to female ones. Male 2yos have secured a strike rate of 29.5% which is roughly double that of his female nursery runners (SR 15.3%);
  1. All Beckett's winners have returned 9/1 or less. Hence we have no big prices skewing these stats. Runners 10/1 or bigger have provided 0 winners from 29 with only two managing to place. Clearly it is best to focus on his more fancied runners;
  1. Keep an eye on the official rating of his 2yos. Those rated 75 or higher have won 26 races from 73 runners (SR 35.2%) for a healthy profit of £43.37 (ROI +59.4%). Those rated 74 or lower have won 9 races from 74 (SR 12.2%) for a loss of £22.67 (ROI -30.6%);
  1. Three courses where he has done particularly well in nurseries are Kempton (7 wins from 23), Newmarket (6 wins from 21), and Lingfield (6 wins from 13).

 

2yo Handicaps by Race Distance

Lastly, I will break trainer 2yo nursery handicap performance down by distance. I am going to split the distances into two – 5 to 6f (including 6.5f), and 7f to 1m.

The data for 1m 1f or more is too limited to give us anything concrete as only two trainers have had more than 25 runners in the time frame we are looking at. Having said that, it is worth mentioning that Richard Hughes has saddled 12 runners over 1m 1f+ and six have won!

 

2yo nursery handicaps over 5-6 furlongs

Sprint trips first, those being nurseries over five to six furlongs. In the chart below the top ten trainers in terms of strike rate are shown. I have restricted it to trainers who have had a minimum of 50 runs or more:

 

 

Archie Watson is the only trainer to get above the 20% mark although Tom Dascombe, Clive Cox, William Haggas and Kevin Ryan are not far away. Seven of the ten were in profit which is more than I would have thought – Haggas, Karl Burke and Mick Appleby showed losses.

Onto A/E indices now for these ten trainers which helps to show which trainers have proved the best value:

 

 

The trainers with the three lowest A/E indices are the three mentioned above that had incurred overall losses. We can see good A/E indices as a group here, however, with eight of the ten hitting over 1.00. Nigel Tinkler's and Rod Millman's figures are particularly impressive – they have proved exceptional value over the past six years in these races.

 

2yo nursery handicaps - 7 furlongs to 1 mile

Again a look at the top ten trainers in terms of strike rate; again 50 runs is the minimum to qualify:

 

 

We can now see more specifically where Beckett excels from a distance perspective. He has made a blind profit of £26.00 (ROI +26.8%) in nurseries over seven furlongs to a mile. Five of the other nine trainers in this cohort have proved profitable also – these being Charlie Hills, Ed Dunlop, Marco Botti, Team Johnston and Keith Dalgleish (who, incidentally, learned his trade as a jockey at Mark Johnston's yard). To be fair, Haggas and Hugo Palmer have lost under 2 pence in the £ which probably still equates to a profit at exchange or early best odds guaranteed prices.

The A/E indices are shown below:

 

 

Beckett (1.48) and Hills (1.37) stand out, while Dunlop, Botti, Dascombe and Dalgleish also are above the magic 1.00.

 

Distance comparison in nursery handicaps – individual trainers

I thought it would be useful to end this piece in a similar way to the first article by comparing the data for all trainers who have had at least 50 2yo runners in both 5-6f nursery handicaps and 7f-1m nursery handicaps. This time I am focusing just on the strike rates. I have included once again a Win% Ratio which can be seen in the right hand column. This is derived by comparing the short trip Win% with the longer trip Win% by creating a ratio of one to the other. The greater the number above 1.00, the more sprints are favoured; the smaller the number below 1.00, the more 7f-1m races are favoured.

 

 

Just 21 trainers have had enough runners to qualify for this table but it does give us the odd juicy titbit. Karl Burke, for example, has done significantly better in sprints (Win% Ratio of 2.34); likewise David Evans, Rod Millman, Archie Watson and Clive Cox seem to perform better with horses in the shorter distance nurseries. John Quinn and Tim Easterby also fall into that category but both their percentages are very low which makes it hard to profit from this knowledge. A couple of trainers have the Win% Ratio strongly favouring the longer trips, namely Charlie Hills (0.64) and Keith Dalgleish (0.67).

There are plenty of stats, graphs and tables to digest in this article and I hope they will point you in the right direction if betting in these types of races.

Until next time...

- DR

Monday Musings: A Red Letter Weekend for Lambourn

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One training centre above all others was at the forefront of the action this weekend just past as four (or technically five) of its incumbents joined in the bonanza with wins of varying importance, writes Tony Stafford.

It was a rarity for me not to have been at the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot but instead I went to Newmarket. I’m glad I did for it was the day reserved as a memorial to the late football man and Newmarket races adherent Glenn Roeder, who always used to love a chat whenever we bumped into each other on one HQ course or the other.

What was marvellous was to find the superbly produced brochure for a two-day silent auction. Late last night when I looked at the site, 90 of the 95 listed items had bids totalling, addition permitting, more than £125,000, with some time to go, all destined to the benefit of the Brain Tumour Association. It was a brain tumour that Glenn fought with such courage for the last decade of his life but to which he finally succumbed aged 65 in February last year.

Midway through the programme, I had a chat with one Lambourn trainer battling valiantly to revive his career after his sacking late last year from Michael Owen’s Manor House Stables in Cheshire after many years’ success.

The trainer of course is Tom Dascombe, who started the New Year effectively with no horses and no stables. Now he has 21 in three rows at Uplands Stables in Lambourn, famously, in the second half of the last century, the base of the great Fred Winter.

Much later Charlie Brooks held the licence, then its former owner Charlie Egerton (who still owns the house and garden, but not the yard according to Tom), and latterly Warren Greatrex – now up the road at Rhonehurst, the fiefdom for 30 years of Oliver Sherwood.

If the village just from that snapshot seems like a rather incestuous enclave, that’s pretty much the case. The place does spread out though with such as Charlie and dad Barry Hills and Nicky Henderson out one way, and Clive Cox and his even more famous landlord, John Francome, radiating in another direction from the village hub.

As we started to talk, a racegoer came along and congratulated Tom on his first winner since his removal from his comfort zone where his tally in reverse order for the ten previous seasons from last year had been 60, 41, 67, 77, 59, 75, 45, 62, 56 and 79.

The winner, the 48th runner of the year from 17 horses to have gone to the track, was Felix Natalis in a handicap at Newbury. There must have been much reassurance that Felix had been ridden by his old partner, Richard Kingscote.

I asked Dascombe about how it all started for him with horses and he said that his family had been from Bristol and when he was young they used to go to Weston-Super-Mare: “If you led the donkeys on the beach they would let you have a free ride. It all came from that”, he said.

I mentioned what I had recalled in this column when Kingscote rode the Derby winner, Desert Crown, and how, years previously, I had met his grandmother who was working as a cashier at a Tesco store in East London; she had proudly told me about him when I presented a Racing Post to her early one morning. “My grandson’s in racing. He’s a jockey called Richard Kingscote.”

I asked Richard about her a few days after the Derby and, after establishing which grandmother it was, he confirmed she is still with us but did not go to the Derby. Kingscote, contrary to my amateur sleuthing, did not come from the East End like that relative, but rather from close to where Dascombe grew up.

Tom came into the lunchroom on Saturday frustrated after his solid handicapper Miramichi, who won four in a row last summer, was obliterated by first-time handicapper Francesco Clemente. An unbeaten Dubawi colt, he was running for only the third time for the Gosdens and owner-breeder Peter Brant’s White Birch Farm.

The margin was nine lengths and Dascombe said: “I’ve got a nice horse here, but the way the programme is framed he will have to be so lucky to find a race he can win off with his mark. There’s always a three-year-old like today’s winner, which is probably a future Group 1 horse, able to get an easy race as they get their careers started. No wonder owners are persuaded to sell horses when they get to a certain level. It can only get worse in the future,” he said.

Happily for Dascombe, things got better yesterday when Misty Grey, a five-year-old gelding and the top weight for Chelmsford’s feature, defied 9st 13lb, again with Kingscote in the saddle, winning by half-a-length and collecting a £25k first prize. Where there’s life there’s hope, Tom!

Two of the five trainers I mentioned at the start were at that time within minutes of the biggest triumph of their lives. Willie Muir, who nowadays trains in conjunction with Chris Grassick, sent his hard-knocking five-year-old Pyledriver to the King George.

In a market dominated by the Irish Derby winner Westover, trained by Ralph Beckett, and the Gosden pair of Emily Upjohn – considered by many an unlucky second to Tuesday in the Oaks – and Mishriff, similarly portrayed after his fast but futile finish second to French colt Vadeni in the Coral-Eclipse, Pyledriver was largely unconsidered in the betting.

Similarly under-estimated was last year’s Arc winner, Torquator Tasso, and in the event, while this year’s Classic form was left in tatters, these two veterans of many battles had the final furlong to themselves as the other quartet trailed home well beaten.

Westover’s fifth-placed finish, 18 lengths behind the winner, could have been explained by his making the running, a new departure, and at an exaggerated tempo, too. As likely, the race may have come too soon after his Irish Derby exploits: however easy a Classic win appears, any horse has to run hard to win one. Emily Upjohn was simply too free in the first half of the race; she would not be the first filly to shine brightly for a while but fail to sustain it. It appears talk of a second Enable was premature. [It generally will be. Ed.]

Muir’s renaissance has been allied to his unearthing of Pyledriver, winner of the Coronation Cup last year and second in it last month. Altogether the winner of seven races, he has earned more than £1.8 million and his toughness should ensure a lot more.

Whether an Arc can be one race for him, that is the target, but I believe Torquator Tasso, last year’s winner of France’s great race, might have the greater scope for improvement in the second half of the season. This was only his third race of 2022 and the ground was faster than ideal.

The next Lambourn resident to share in the weekend wins was Owen Burrows. Last summer at Brighton, on one of my first post-Covid racetrack visits, I sat talking to Owen who was telling how all the trainers with horses of the recently-deceased Hamdan Al Maktoum were fearing the future. “There’s going to be a big meeting in Dubai and we’ll learn more soon,” he said.

The massive reductions that eventually resulted might have shaken up racing a good deal, but the positive effect was that it enabled other owners and trainers to buy otherwise unavailable bloodstock at auctions. Burrows’ own numerical string at his new base at Farncombe Down Stables in Lambourn has been significantly reduced.

What has not changed is his ability to win races. Already in 2022 he has ten wins to his credit – his annual scores were usually in the mid-20’s – but from only 34 runs. Remarkably these have yielded just short of £500,000 in prizes, a tally only bettered in a whole season once – last year.

His weekend winner was Alflaila, a three-year-old Dark Angel colt in the Shadwell Estate Company colours, who collected £28k for his win in the Skybet-sponsored Pomfret Stakes, the main event on the final day of the Go Racing in Yorkshire Festival at Pontefract.

The other in-form Lambourn trainer has been Archie Watson with three wins over the weekend, two ridden by Hollie Doyle who has been in terrific form lately. One race Archie didn’t win though was Ascot’s lady riders’ handicap on Friday when Micky Hammond’s Carnival Zain and Becky Smith raced away from Alazwar and Brodie Hampson, Archie’s partner.

Hammond was also on the mark at Pontefract yesterday when his progressive ex-French Piecederesistance won nicely. In the calendar year 2022, Hammond is already on 49 wins, including 16 on the level, which is only three short of his highest-ever figure in more than 30 years as a trainer.

Another to be setting records is William Knight. It had been twenty races since his six-year-old Sir Busker had last won, at Royal Ascot in the Royal Hunt Cup Consolation race straight after the Covid break. He had been placed many times since but gained a first Group 2 win in the Skybet York Stakes on Saturday. The seventy-odd grand prize has pushed Knight beyond the best season’s prizemoney of his career.

- TS

2022/23 Football Season Preview

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It's not yet the end of July and yet here we are again, about to embark upon another ten months of kicking and screaming courtesy of the only round ball game that really counts (with obvs apols to fans of other, less count-y, round ball games).

I loves me footy and, though this is a racing page every other day in the year, this day it pulls on its studded boots and increasingly tight (must have shrunk in the wash, can't be any other reason...) shorts to deliver a half-cooked notion or three on the upcoming season. As is now the formula, before looking forward we must cast an eye astern and see what emerged from the wake of last season's footer foray.

Last Season: Meh...

For the first time in published history - fully six seasons, so not that much really - I changed it up. Stepping away from the tried and trusted perm trixie of seven bets, I (we, if you followed me in) went down the yankee path. That meant four picks in different markets, any double securing a payout, as opposed to four picks across three markets theretofore. These were those:

- Premier League Relegation: Crystal Palace at 7/4 (12th, started well, never in danger)

- Championship Top Six finish: Bournemouth at 11/8 (2nd, never in doubt)

- League One Promotion: Ipswich at 5/2 (11th, never nearer)

- League Two Promotion: Exeter City at 10/3 (2nd, pretty much always thereabouts)

This was over early. Ipswich did what I needed Palace to do, and Palace what I needed from Ipswich. Vieira conjured a better than fine effort from a newish squad, while Paul Cook paid the price for not being able to make a congruent picture from all the jigsaw pieces he'd aggregated during the summer; he was seeking new opportunities by early December - and so, alas, were we.

The Cherries / Grecians double returned 10.26 of 11 points staked which, on a bet largely over by the end of August, felt like a massive win in a way!

Last year's post is here, if you want to review.

 

2022/23 Picks

I quite liked the broader spread of the yankee bet last season and will stick with that, for all that what follows is far more risky and, as a consequence, more likely to return a big fat bagel. Win or lose, I'm happy to take the chance. A yankee (11 bets, doubles, trebles and a fourfold) it is, then, across the four divisions. Same stakes as last year - which are/were slightly smaller than the perm trixie - because, naturally, an extra leg involves a higher degree of risk (and potential reward). And these longer prices involve a further layer of greater risk.

Anyway, that's the preamble done and dusted, so these are the picks...

Premier League Dual Forecast

I've got the Premier League relegation market consistently wrong for years now and, in the end, I have to concede that it's trickier than I usually have it. This season, I expect Cherries will struggle badly, especially if they don't get on and do some transfer business. Sigh. But they're too short, so instead I'm taking an acceptably short price about the Man City / Liverpool dual forecast. Either order, first and second.

Yes, I know it's pretty uninspired; and I accept the wheels will fall off at some point; and yes, I'm aware that teams around them, notably Spurs, have bolstered well. But they were a full six wins above Chelsea last term, and seven above Tottingham. The gap may be eroded, I don't see it being wholly bridged. 8/11 amounts to something of a banker in the context of what follows and, as you'll see, we may need that to secure at least the prospect of a double and a bit of the dough back next May.

Championship Promotion

The hardest division in the land, and Burnley could get relegated if things go poorly. But, despite being unfashionable and despite biffing one of the top English managers late last campaign, they have a bit of a chance. Squad depth, parachute payments and the sort of gritty playing style that can keep them in the hunt are attributes well suited to Championship football. While the loss of Ben Mee, Nick Pope and James Tarkowski - as well as exciting prospect Nathan Collins - makes them notably weaker defensively, they've netted £25m from the ins and outs, and moved bundles off the wage bill including many of the squad veterans.

In come Josh Cullen, a strong central midfielder from Anderlecht (via West Ham and Charlton); highly touted Man City youth 'keeper, Arijanet Muric (nope, me neither); a couple of promising centre halves in Conrad 'CJ' Egan-Riley (another City youth project) and Luke McNally; and a couple of loan signings from the top end of the Prem. They probably need more legs up top - just Vydra, Ashley Barnes and Jay Rodriguez currently - but a team with the likes of Lowton, Taylor, Westwood, Cork, and Cornet and McNeil if they can retain them - has a very strong looking spine.

Norwich and Watford were four wins behind Burnley in the Premier League last season and don't look any stronger. That said, if Sarr and Dennis can a) stay fit and b) remain at the club, the Hornets could have plenty of goals in their ranks.

Loads of 'usual suspects' in this ultra-trappy section, including West Brom, who were utterly dreadful in the second half of last season; Middlesbrough, expected to be weakened by departures; and an aging but robust looking Sheffield United. And Huddersfield are probably over-priced at 14/1 for promotion. But I'm backing Burnley's bouncebackability in a brown or bust scenario.

League One Promotion

A long time admirer of Sunderland's ability to make the market and clunk, I was disappointed (in that regard, at least) to see them go up via the playoffs in May. My pick last year was Ipswich, and they have the feel of 'the new Sunderland' for all that they're likely to be better equipped than twelve months ago as a result of far less player turnover. They're at the head of the market and a likely 'runner', as are Sheffield Wednesday, who look worthy favourites but unexciting at 6/4 for the promotion gig.

Instead, I've plumped for Bolton who are as big as 9/2 in a place and 4/1 generally. A steady enough beginning to the 2021/22 campaign meant a struggle to get competitive in their first spin back at League One after a short stint in the professional basement. They've been a box office club to follow in recent times, from their inability to fulfil fixtures pre-pandemic to a glut of high-scoring tallies in the first half of 2022, mainly courtesy of left winger Afolayan and striker Bakayoko, they've rarely been out of the news. More soap opera will surely follow this season and, win or lose, it'll be a fun ride cheering the Trotters in their quest for Championship football.

League Two Promotion

League Two is an unpredictable division again this term and, in a break from the approach thus far - where I've wanted to be with a team who showed plenty in part two of the last season - here I'm rolling with one that had an awesome middle but didn't quite finish the job. Taking out the first 15 matches of last term, Mansfield would have won the division; but of course one cannot do that, the winner having accrued the most points across 46 games, not 31. Still, that's testament to the direction of travel at the Nottinghamshire club, and if they can add a few more goals to a resolute rearguard they will make the top seven - for a playoff spot - and potentially an automatic promotion placing in the top three. They were weak in the latter part of the 21/22 campaign so probably need a deeper squad before the window closes at the end of August.

The betting is roughly 7/1 the field but a tell tale sign is that a couple of the co-favourites are former Conference sides Salford and Stockport, the latter recently promoted; so, while those teams have achieved the double jump in recent times (Doncaster and Crawley as two examples), I can't think of one in the last ten years or so. Leyton Orient might go well again and, at 9/2 in a place (4/1 general) they'd be playable; but I'm hoping the Stags can add some firepower to challenge for top honours.

 

The 2022/23 Wager

I'm sticking with the yankee, and it's been a bit of a mess trying to get on with the top priced doubles and trebles; in fact, I made a rick when taking two points under top price by mistake with one segment of the bet. A slightly poorer value, but far more straightforward, alternative is to strike any copycat plays with Hills, who are top price overall. My breakdown - it almost caused me one trying to get them placed - is in the images below.

As I hope I've mentioned throughout, it's an ambitious play, a fact underscored by a possible return of just shy of £10,000 for an all correct set of tickets!

But for a season's worth of entertainment for £2.75 if you want a 25p slice of the action, or whatever stake suits your budget and your gullibility/conviction* (*delete as applicable) in my selections. At the 50p end of the spectrum, you'd still be cheering an unlikely - but possible - £100 payoff, and we ought to get at least some sort of run for our shekels.

Where we follow the racing action day to day - each contest distinct from pretty much all others, a snapshot opportunity for profit and loss - our team(s) do battle through forty-odd related skirmishes and need to keep it together better than the rest in that light. It's a different kind of bet - capital tied up, joy/despair locked in - for the long haul. And I can't wait to see how it plays out.

Here's hoping...

Matt

Tote Review

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Tote Review

Pool betting is a particular love of mine, for two main reasons: fun, and value. Whilst these are not mutually exclusive, they are not necessarily mutually inclusive, either; which is to say, sometimes I bet for the hell of it - a placepot for a bit of interest, let's say - and sometimes I bet because there is tremendous value to be had (as well as the fun) with a chunky rollover pool.

Anyone who believes in holding multiple accounts in order to secure value - which will be most reading this - should have a tote option in the portfolio, in my view.

Here are a few things that appeal to me about the 'nanny'.

Free bets when you join up

As soon as you register and bet £5, you'll get two £10 free bets. One of these free bet tokens is for use in the placepot pools, and the other can be used in the single race pools (e.g. win, place, exacta, trifecta). So that's deposit and bet £5, and get £20 of free bet vouchers to play with.

 

 

No Limits Pool Betting & No Account Closures

As a pool operator, Tote pay out from the funds that are bet in, and so will not close your account because you are successful punter. As it is pool betting, they also won’t limit your stake just because you might actually be a winner!

 

Juicy rollovers

It is quite a regular occurrence for the jackpot pool to roll over: after all, it's often a tricky bet to land given that you have to find six consecutive winners. Often, but not always. Here's an example of a rollover last week:

 

The cumulative starting price odds on those six winners amounted to 1,509/1, with none of them returning bigger than the first leg's 10/3. The tote return for that bet was £4,202.90!

There are jackpot rollovers every week and, sometimes, these bets are extremely winnable.

Open your Tote account here

 

Price match guarantee

If you place a win bet with Tote, and your selection comes first, you'll get the prevailing tote win dividend paid to you. However, if the industry starting price is higher, you also get reimbursed the difference. So you'll never endure that enormous irritation when you see what you believe to be a great price on the tote board only to cringe at the returned dividend which is below SP. Of course, if the tote return is bigger than SP, you're getting the tote return!

 

Tote+

One of the best things about tote these days is their tote+ concession. This is available on most tote markets (and is denoted on the tote website by a 'tote+' icon).

The concession pays an additional 10% on winnings in these markets when bets are struck either on the tote website or via their app.

So, in the two examples above, the dividends were topped up to £4,623.19 (vs 1509/1 SP) and £6,790.08 (vs 2,439/1 SP). Nice!

Using a random example of the race that has just finished at time of writing, the 8/13 fav beat 3/1 clear second favourite. Here, the straight forecast (SP derived bet involving choosing the first two home in the correct order) paid £2.76, whereas the exacta paid £3.40 which was boosted to £3.74. In old money, that's getting 11/4 about a 7/4 shot!

 

Guaranteed pool sizes

Tote guarantees the jackpot pool to a minimum of £10,000 for a £1 winning unit.

Why is this good? Because sometimes it's free money. In this case, the tote are making up the difference between the amount bet and minimum pool size guarantee. What that means is that there are less people to compete with for more cash, assuming you think the cumulative odds will pay less than 9,999/1 and you believe the pool will be won by one unit or less.

Look at this example from a few days ago:

This time the cumulative winning odds were 2,439/1 and the biggest-priced winner was 9/2.

There were 3,705 units (and so £3,705) in the pool, which was guaranteed to pay winners a share of £10,000.

The dividend returned £6,172.80 for a £1 stake. Value. Fun. And more value. (Except I left Felix out, sigh).

These are bets I play all the time: the jackpot at least once a week on average, and the placepot almost every day somewhere (though, as I said, not always 'seriously').

 

Loyalty bonuses

There is currently a promotion running called 'Stayers Club' whereby six bets placed of at least £2, £5 or £10 will qualify for a free bet to the same value the following Monday. Players need to opt in for this from the 'Promotions' page.

 

Free placepots / first leg insurance

Hardly a life changer, but a nice little extra, are the occasional £1 placepot free bets I've found in my account. Use it/them to try and string six placed horses together, and if you manage that, you'll have a bit to make a wider perm, or to withdraw and have a pint. Either way, you'll get a bit of fun for nada. I like those odds.

Also, on selected days/meetings, there is a first leg insurance in play whereby tickets going down on leg one will be refunded as credit (up to the value of £10). That's a nice way to take a banker in the opener and get the chance to try again another day if it fails to make the frame. All of those little concessions add to the bottom line, both financially and entertainment-wise. Even though many of us bet to win, that latter point should never be under-played; after all, if it's only for the money, we might as well go get a(nother) job, right?

 

Betting Tournaments

I've played in a few of these and they're great fun. You need to opt in, like most enhanced components on the site (terms and conditions, etc), and when you do - and place three bets with a combined total stake of at least £10 - you'll be eligible for the betting tournament. There's one on King George day (23rd July 2022) and others on each of Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday 26th to 28th July when both Goodwood and Galway will be racing.

The prizes are very healthy. For example, on King George day, the top three are as follows:

1st - £1,000
2nd - £500
3rd - £250

And the top ten players qualify for the final on British Champions Day (October 15th), which is a winner takes all prize of £50,000!

Performance is calculated by profit minus stakes, so the player with the most clear profit wins.

To keep it interesting for a larger number of players, there is a 'Beat Benson' bonus fund. Benson is Jamie Benson, tote writer, and he has a £300 tank to splurge each tournament day. For every player in the tournament, tote add £10 to the Beat Benson pot; the pot is shared between all players who make more profit than he does.

For example, let's say there are 1000 players: that's 1000 x £10 = £10,000 in the Beat Benson chest. And let's say you won £35 on a tricky day's betting, and Jamie Benson makes a loss. Let's finally say that there were 100 players who managed to secure a profit in the competition: those 100 (which includes you) all beat Benson and equally share the £10,000. So, £10,000 / 100 = £100.

£100 would be credited to all of those players in the tournament who beat Benson's losing score. Make sense?

I managed to get credited about £275 on one of the days at Royal Ascot: basically, you want Jamie to do well but every so slightly less well than you have fared! That makes for you being a winner, and fewer people sharing with you. Greedy, moi? 🤣

World Pool Days

These tend to coincide with betting tournament days, or vice versa, and they bring massive liquidity from around the globe into the British tote. One of the features of a global audience betting on British racing is that they - like us when we're wagering overseas - tend to focus on the names they know. So winners ridden by Frankie or Ryan are not generally the way to go, but those value five pound claimers are likely to pay notably over the odds as result of large chunks of cash dodging the international no-names. Obviously that's a broad brush statement, but the gist is that you and I know the form book here better than millions of the overseas cash, which gives us an edge.

It is also fair to say that the deep pools attract their share of whales - sophisticated heavy hitters - but there's more than enough to go round on days when the cumulative handle (total wagered) gets up around the £35 million mark thanks to players in Hong Kong, America and around the globe.

**

I absolutely love the tote, mainly because they give me plenty of chances to win more money by not being especially clever much of the time. And I feel this is one of the best value betting opportunities available right now, and really a lot of fun, too. Fun, and value/profit. That's the geegeez way. And, it appears, the tote way.

If you don't yet have an account, you can open one here. After you've staked your first £5 you'll receive £20 in free bets. Click the image below to bag your bonuses. Good luck!

Matt

 

Gold Nuggets: Flat Fez Draw & Pace Research

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One of the biggest weeks of Summer festival racing is upcoming, with both Galway and Goodwood hosting multi-day garden parties featuring Pimm's and ponies next week. The action on the track will be as heady as many of the next morning hangovers off it, and in such busy circumstances it can pay to revise ahead of time.

With that in mind, I've recorded a video looking at a few draw/run style angles for the two meetings. The idea, if not too pedagogic, is to share both a fish supper and an angling lesson. More specifically, here's what I'm looking out for next week, and here's how/why you might use a similar approach at other courses and distances.

In the video, I've referenced some other content on geegeez, as follows:

Draw Analyser

Draw Biases at Galway and Goodwood blog post (updated prior to 2021 renewals)

Goodwood Course Guide

Galway Course Guide

Chapter list:

00:00 Intro
01:10 Establishing weather conditions
05:45 Galway course configuration
08:20 Draw and Run Style analysis setup
09:35 **Why use Percentage of Rivals Beaten?**
13:25 Galway 7f Draw / Run Style analysis
17:55 Galway 1m+ Draw / Run Style analysis
21:40 Goodwood 7f Draw / Run Style analysis, part 1
22:40 Goodwood course configuration
24:30 Goodwood 7f Draw / Run Style analysis, part 2
27:55 Goodwood 1m Draw / Run Style analysis
29:58 Outro

Matt

Roving Reports: No Rest for the Wicked

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So, since Royal Ascot you might think things would go a little quieter, but you'd be wrong, very wrong, writes David Massey. Since then, I've visited Cartmel on our holidays the week after Ascot (highly recommended, if only to visit the Sticky Toffee Pudding shop - try the ginger one, superb, and only a thousand calories per spoonful), and have worked at Southwell, Stratford, Newbury, Haydock, York and Uttoxeter. 

If ever you've thought about becoming a workman for one of the books, there's never been a better time to give it a try. Covid saw a lot of them, starved of work on the tracks for so long, take other, full time, jobs in driving and retail industries. When it was time to come back to the tracks, they simply said no, with more secure jobs on offer. No-one could blame them for taking such a stance but ever since plenty of the books have struggled to fill those positions and as such, particularly in the summer, they are simply unable to staff all their joints. Bookmakers with good pitches at big tracks are having to let them go to waste on a Saturday. Seriously, if you want racecourse work, it’s out there. 

Haydock last Saturday was a prime example. A sell out crowd for Madness, we expected a full line of bookmakers in the Silver Ring, but only eight turned up. We couldn't get them on quick enough and even more so when my keyboard packed up on race three. Instead of two of us taking bets, we were down to just one, and that means you take twice as long to clear a queue that never went down. Technology is wonderful when it works, a pain in the backside when it lets you down at the most inconvenient of moments. [Hear hear! Ed.]

The fez (not to be confused with The Fez, jumps fans) was the headgear of choice for the crowd on Saturday (the Madness merchandise stall was knocking them out at seven quid a pop) although fair play to the one guy who went for the pith helmet (from the Night Boat To Cairo video) which looked pretty heavy. On a warm night, we salute you, sir. 

As expected, it was all small money. One lad, in a "Billionaire's Boys Club" T-shirt, asks me for 50p e/w the favourite in the first. I'm guessing he's not a member. Or maybe he is, perhaps that's the key to riches. 

"Mr Musk, how come you have so much money?" 

"I keep stakes on those 0-65's at Haydock to an absolute minimum. The draw can be a complete guess-up." 

With the last race at nine, it was midnight before I was back home, and thanks to Stratford bringing their meeting forward to a midday start, it meant rising at 7.30 Sunday morning to be there for 10am for Ladies Day. Oh, the glamour of it all. Fair play to Stratford, though; I was sceptical about the 12 start, thinking it would make little difference as far as the heat went, but it was the right decision, with the afternoon noticeably hotter than it was at lunchtime. 

I like Stratford. It's a great little track that always gets a crowd and they all have a bet. It's all small money on Sunday, although someone came in with an even £300 on Pop The Champagne, which duly obliged. Pop The Champagne is owned by my friend Jill, who has had some success with High Wells recently, too. I say 'friend', she's actually my stalker, by her own admission! But it's always a pleasure to see her. 

Haydock isn't the only late finish I've had recently. Newbury's evening meeting on the 7th saw me working on the rails, with business just fair. The most unusual thing about Newbury is the placement of the hand driers in the men's toilets, which are not actually in the toilets but the entrance, often resulting in people being unable to move if someone's using the drier, and blocking anyone going in or out. You wonder who thought that was a good idea. 

Anyway, another post-midnight finish on the day and, worse still, quite possibly a speeding ticket. I'm generally good with speed limits (an unblemished license for seven years now) but with roadworks on the M1 I missed the 50 limit and the camera flashed. However, over a week has passed, and no ticket as yet. I'm now 10-11 each of two to get one, having been fours on last week, with just another 72 hrs to go. If I get one, I'll have worked for little that night. 

From Newbury it was up to York the next day, where, rather than working in the ring as is usually the case, I was on the rails for John Smith’s day. It was busy from the word go, with plenty of decent bets coming in, although as was pointed out to me by my work colleague Martin, we were working next to two very attractive young ladies.

“How the hell are us ugly sods supposed to take a bet against them?” he groaned. Well, we just had to be as efficient as we could, clear the queue and then start pulling them in off the backs of the other queues, that’s how. To me, the Saturday was good business but it needed to be after a disaster of a Friday (four winning favourites, three second favourites) but one or two of the big books were saying business was about 30% down on pre-Covid levels. For some of them, the Saturday was something of an acid test to see whether business really has dropped off or if it could return, and the signs, according to plenty, were not good. 

It does look as if this level of business is now the new normal, and some of the books are now having to cut their cloth accordingly. That, coupled with the lack of staff, means there’s plenty of pitches for sale right now, if you fancy a go yourself...

It's York again this weekend for me, which is always a laugh, especially if I'm on the back line next to the Paul Johnson crew. David, often seen on Racing Post Greyhound TV trying to put up a winner at his beloved Doncaster these days, has an opinion on most things, and most of them are wrong. He could start a fight with himself half the time, but he's a good friend and we'll spend the two days winding each other up. I'll tell you how that goes next time.

 - DM

Trainers in Two-Year-Old Races, Part 1

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This is the first in a new series of articles where I will examine the performance of certain trainers over the past few seasons, writes Dave Renham. I will be using data from 1st January 2016 to 31st December 2021 giving us six full seasons to examine (UK racing only). For this piece my focus will be two-year-old races and I have used the Geegeez Query Tool as the sole source to gather the initial data. All profits / losses have been calculated to Industry Starting Price. Therefore one would expect that we could significantly improve upon the figures by using early prices, Best Odds Guaranteed and / or the exchanges.

Many punters latch on to specific trainers or groups of trainers as trainer patterns are quite a popular strategy for trying to beat the bookies. And there's logic in this: like all of us, trainers are creatures of habit, and follow a similar path year in year out. They generally stick to the same training methods, have favoured jockeys that they use where possible, know which races to target, and so on. This offers at least a reasonable chance that future results will correlate with prior ones. Let’s dig into the stats.

Trainer Performance in all 2yo races

First, let's look at all 2yo races. Below is a table for the top 20 trainers in terms of win strike rate (minimum 150 runs across the six seasons):

 

These are ordered by strike rate and it is no surprise to see that a good proportion of the top trainers in the country are present. Only five of them have made a blind profit to SP, which is to be expected. For the record, yards of the Crisfords, Beckett, Palmer and the Charltons also nudged into profit if using Betfair SP.

Charlie Appleby’s record stands head and shoulders above the rest in terms of strike rate, his 30% strike rate with 2yos over six years being remarkable.

If we order by the A/E index, a measure of the perceived sustainability of profitability, then we get the following top 20:

 

Six of the trainers in the top 20 two-year-old strike rate table appear here as well. However, we have a much more mixed bag of strike rates as A/E indices focus on ‘value’. Any A/E index higher than 1.00 indicates the trainer gets more winners than expected which is why 10 of the 20 trainers in the list have been profitable to SP. 17 of the 20 would have been profitable using BSP.

 

Charlie Appleby's 2yo record

Time to drill down into a couple of individual trainers starting with that man Charlie Appleby. Firstly let us compare his strike rate performance by season:

 

These figures are relatively consistent considering the type of races we are dealing with. Appleby made a profit at SP in 2017 and 2020 – the years with the highest strike rates. Also in those two years the A/E index went over 1.00 both times.

In terms of the sex of Appleby's 2yo runners, he has been more successful with males as the table below shows:

 

A higher strike rate by about 18% relatively and 5% in absolute terms, and much better returns - losing just 2.5 pence in the £ - on male runners is noteworthy. The A/E index and the IV figures also give male runners the edge. Why this is I am not sure; what is interesting though is that I had a quick look at Appleby's three-year-old data and males out-perform females there in virtually identical fashion. I am always hoping for these supporting elements when performing this type of research.

Appleby’s runners tend to start on the short side, in other words near the head of the betting market. This pie chart illustrates this neatly:

 

Nearly half of his 2yos - 396 runners out of 813 (49%) - have started favourite. Just 96 runners (12%) started 4th or bigger in the betting. The breakdown of top three in the betting versus 4th or bigger is also worth sharing with you:

 

 

It looks prudent to avoid any Appleby 2yo that starts 4th or bigger in the betting, with significant losses of nearly 60p in the £ having been incurred. Conversely, the Godolphin trainer has gone close to breaking even at Industry SP with horses that started in the top 3 of the betting lists.

The Shadwell Stud sire Dubawi is a popular one when it comes to Appleby 2yos. This stallion has been responsible for 121 of the 2yos in Moulton Paddocks stable over the past six seasons. These 121 horses have run 254 times for Appleby in 2yo races, registering an impressive 89 victories, a 35% strike rate. Backing all Appleby Dubawi 2yo runners would have seen a break even situation at Industry SP. For the record, when we look at these 121 individual horses, 70 of them managed to win at least one race (58% winners to runners).

 

Aidan O'Brien's 2yo record

Let’s dig down a bit into the Aidan O'Brien stable next. Remember, we are looking only at UK form and, clearly, O'Brien sends over from Ireland many of his better 2yos, the majority of which race at either Newmarket or Ascot. Indeed, Newmarket runners account for more than half of his 2yo runners on these shores. What caught my eye the most was his record when contesting the top two tiers of race, namely Group 1 or Group 2 prizes. His record in both read as follows:

 

 

These are eye-catching strike rates considering the competitiveness of such races, and there is a commensurately excellent return on investment in both.

I also looked at O'Brien's performance in terms of market rank. His favourites have done extremely well, but what was interesting is that when comparing 2nd, 3rd favs etc, there is not that much in the figures:

 

By way of comparison, the second favourite strike rate for ALL trainers is close to 21%. O'Brien's is down at 15.15%, whereas I would have expected it to be nearer 25%.

Before moving on, I would be wary of backing any O'Brien 2yo that had any type of headgear (blinkers, tongue tie, etc). 39 of his runners raced in headgear in the six years of study but only five won. Backing all of them would have yielded a loss of just over 38 pence in the £.

 

Non-handicaps versus handicaps

So far I have not split the data into non-handicap and handicaps. This is mainly due to the fact that non-handicaps account for roughly 80% of all 2yo races. Also, for many of the top performing 2yo trainers, this 80% figure tends to be higher. For example, 93% of Charlie Appleby 2yos have run in non-handicaps; and others at 90% or more include Roger Varian (93%), Sir Michael Stoute (95%) and John Gosden (94%). Hence for the remainder of this article I will be narrowing my focus only slightly to focus on the large non-handicap subset.

[The second article in this series will look at some of the 2yo handicap data]

 

Non-handicap performance by race distance

Juveniles have a ceiling in terms of how far they can race in Britain, the reason being that they are young horses in their first season of racing. They generally have not built up the necessary stamina to tackle longer distances. Here is a graph showing the breakdown of 2yo non-handicap races in terms of distance – it looks at the percentage of races run at each distance:

 

This shows us that 83% of all 2yo non-handicaps are contested over seven furlongs or shorter. A mile and a quarter, ten furlongs, is generally the longest distance 2yos have to race, but there has been a race at Kempton in December of the past two years over 1m3f. One of the pair was won by a 100/1 shot and the first four home in the other were priced at 22/1, 50/1, 9/1 and 50/1!

It should also be noted that for the first two full months of the two-year-old season (April and May) races are primarily over the sprint trips of 5f and 6f. Indeed there have been just five 7f races run in May over the past six seasons. Races of a mile-plus don’t properly kick in until August.

It's time to break trainer juvenile non-handicap performance down by distance now. I am going to split the distances into three: 5 to 6f (including 6.5f); 7f to 1m; and 1m 1f or more.

 

2yo non-handicaps over 5-6 furlongs

So, sprint distances first. In the chart below the top 15 trainers are shown, in terms of strike rate. The data is restricted to trainers who have had a minimum of 70 runners in the sample period:

 

 

Charlie Appleby tops the list once again and his runners actually made a tiny profit at Industry SP (ROI 1.25%). Others trainers to make a blind profit were Owen Burrows, Clive Cox, Andrew Balding, Martyn Meade and Ralph Beckett. Let's now look at the A/E indices for these 15 trainers, which will help to show the trainers who have proved the best value:

 

 

Six trainers have exceeded the 1.00 value benchmark, while three trainers have low figures - Saeed bin Suroor (0.79), Roger Varian (0.81) and Hugo Palmer (0.8). In ROI terms, bin Suroor runners lost 36 pence in the £, Varian’s lost 26p in the £, and Palmer’s runners lost 29p for every £ staked.

When examining most racing statistics we need an overall view – strike rate, ROI%, A/E indices and Impact Values need to be used in conjunction with each other.

 

2yo non-handicaps over 7f to 1 mile

In general, these longer distances are contested by better 2yos so it will be interesting to see how individual trainers fare. Again I have used 70 runs as a minimum threshold to qualify. Let’s look at the top 15 trainers by strike rate first:

 

 

In terms of profitability, only the Charlton stable have made a blind profit and barely at that. Perhaps this shows the overall competitiveness of 7f-1m races. Moreover, just two have hit over 1.00 in terms of the A/E index (the Charltons and David Simcock).

Sticking with the Beckhampton Stables yard of Harry and Roger Charlton for a moment there are three further statistics I want to share. Firstly, when saddling the favourite in these races they have won an impressive 22 races from 40 (SR 55%) for a profit of £12.37 to £1 level stakes (ROI +30.9%); secondly, when his runners start second favourite they have also made a profit thanks to 10 wins from 28 (SR 35.7%) for a profit of £7.50 (ROI +26.8%); and thirdly, 2yos that race at Newbury in 7f-1m non handicaps have done well winning 12 races from 45 (SR 26.7%) for a profit of £35.41 (ROI +78.7%).

Of course, it is extremely useful knowing which trainers have the best records, but it is also worth looking at those trainers with the poorest records. Here are the trainers with the lowest strike rates in 7f-1m 2yo non-handicaps:

 

 

Although a couple of these trainers have made a profit, this is down to a random big priced winner or two; in general, the figures for these trainers are very poor. Hence I personally would avoid them in such contests.

 

2yo non-handicaps of 1m 1f or longer

With these races making up less than 4% of 2yo non-handicap races in the UK, it means we have limited data to work with. Indeed, only seven trainers have had 40 or more runners at these longer distances in the past six seasons. For the record here are their stats:

 

 

That man Charlie Appleby is impressive once more, while the Gosden and Johnston stables have had the greatest number of runners but neither has been profitable to follow.

 

Individual trainers: comparison by distance

I thought it would be interesting to end this article by comparing the data for all trainers who have had at least 50 two-year-old runners in both 5f to 6f non-handicaps and 7f to one mile non-handicaps. It should be noted at this point that 7f-1m races have a slightly bigger average field size: 9.3 runners on average compared with 9.0 for 5-6f races. Hence this will have a small effect on trainer strike rate comparisons. For that reason, I will not only compare strike rates, but A/E indices and Impact Values too.

The right hand three columns compare the short trip data with the longer trip data by creating a ratio of one to the other. The greater the number above 1.00, the more sprints are favoured; the smaller the number below 1.00, the more longer races are favoured. For example, Andrew Balding won 1.35 times as often with his five- to six-furlong juvenile non-handicappers as he did with his seven furlong to mile ones; while David Simcock won 0.87 times as frequently (i.e. his 7f-1m non-handicap runners won at a higher strike rate than his 5f-6f equivalents).

 

 

Taking these distance data into account may assist when analysing 2yo non-handicaps races in the future.

There are some trainers who clearly perform better in 2yo non-handicap sprints as compared to 7f-1m races. A handful stand out to me when it comes to having a real edge in sprints compared to longer races – they are Jane Chapple-Hyam, Paul & Oliver Cole, Marcus Tregoning, Owen Burrows, Clive Cox, Ismail Mohammed, Stuart Williams, Jedd O’Keefe and David O’Meara. In terms of an advantage in the longer races there is not too much to go at: perhaps Sir Michael Stoute would be one to note but it is a marginal preference rather than a very strong one.

I hope this article will prove useful when evaluating 2yo races in more detail. My next piece will share more facts and figures relating to trainers and two-year-olds. Until then...

- DR

Monday Musings: First World Problems

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All is not well in the United Kingdom, writes Tony Stafford. No, not the fact that racing in the Midlands and South today and tomorrow has been called off because of the expectation of heatwave conditions. Everything seems to be grinding to a halt, apart from Covid which is enjoying an unexpected out-of-season revival.

We used to talk about “First World problems” when the wealthy had some of their expected enjoyment interrupted. Now we’re more like a Third World country, maybe not quite at the stage where, according to one much-used definition, “A country which struggles to meet basic human needs”, but one where daily frustrations are occurring more frequently wherever you look.

Covid of course has much to answer for, not least in the breakdown of international air travel. Contagion decimated (yes, I know it means reduced to a tenth! – so used advisedly) passenger travel and even as demand and eligibility to fly have begun to return to normal, staffing still has not.

On two days last week, Heathrow and Stansted, two of the three biggest airports in the UK, had problems for two of our leading stables. Much was made of Emily Upjohn’s being stranded at Stansted prior to her planned departure for Dublin and the Irish Oaks on Saturday. She might not have beaten Jessica Harrington’s Magical Lagoon, following on from her Ribblesdale Stakes victory, but she would have started favourite.

Incidentally, the Ribblesdale was also mentioned for the Gosden filly as a likely consolation after her narrow defeat by Tuesday in the Oaks at Epsom.  For a few strides on Saturday, another Ballydoyle distaff dredged up from the never-ending (until two years’ time anyway) supply of Galileo fillies, in the shape of Toy, loomed; but Magical Lagoon, also a daughter of the great sire, saw off her late challenge in determined style.

The other sufferer was a human one. Hughie Morrison had enjoyed a nice trip to Paris for the Bastille Day card at Longchamp on Thursday and, after a leisurely evening celebrating Quickthorn’s smooth victory in the £62k to the winner Group 2 Prix Maurice De Nieuil, he set off for Heathrow on Friday.

I needed to call him that morning and received a text instead saying, “Plane unable to land at Heathrow as it is too busy so have just landed back in Paris.” I haven’t had need to call Hughie since but trust he has managed to get back to base somehow in the interim.

Quickthorn, who was runner-up in last year’s Ebor to subsequent Irish St Leger winner Sonnyboyliston, is one of 84 horses nominated to next month’s renewal and contenders will be flexing their muscles aiming at the £300,000 first prize. Yes, don’t worry Gary Coffey, I am aware both Desert Crown and Quickthorn are by Nathaniel, and Westover by his Galileo contemporary, Frankel.

Meanwhile Emily Upjohn, denied a shot at the £240k available for Saturday’s Irish Classic, could be nominated this morning for a race worth three times as much as early as this weekend. According to the bookmakers, the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes has three potential leading contenders, the respective Derby and Irish Derby winners, Desert Crown and Westover, and Emily Upjohn.

The guaranteed starter is Westover and it is a great shame that Sir Michael Stoute has confirmed Desert Crown will miss the race with a “foot niggle”.

No doubt Chris Stickels will be throwing the water on in a valiant attempt to provide a tolerable surface for all who show up. Fast ground versus a £700k prize: a truly First World problem!

The obvious drawback to an Emily Upjohn challenge is Mishriff, also trained by the Gosdens. His fast finish at Sandown after David Egan found trouble in running in that small field was highly creditable. By the way, that was by no means the only time young Master Egan got there too late in recent rides.

The main race every year on the evening Bastille Day card is the Grand Prix de Paris, effectively the French counterpart to the Derby since the shortening of the distance of the Prix du Jockey Club to 10.5 furlongs (2100 metres).

While the Jockey Club winner, Vadeni, went on to win the Eclipse Stakes from the aforementioned never nearer Mishriff at Sandown earlier this month, five-length runner-up El Bodegon was one of three international challengers for the six-horse Grand Prix prize.

James Ferguson’s runner was preferred in the market by Roger Varian’s unbeaten young stayer Eldar Eldarov, who had won the Queen’s Vase at Royal Ascot. Ferguson’s colt, a Group 1 winner as a juvenile in France, won their domestic argument but the Jockey Club form was turned over. Onesto, trained by Frank Chappet, had been fifth at Chantilly but came through to win here from another French colt, Simca Mille, the neck runner-up, with the Newmarket pair well behind in third and fourth.

Some of the weekend’s most exciting sport came at Newbury when the Weatherbys Super Sprint was, as ever, a highlight. It provided an all-the-way win for Eddie’s Boy, a throwback flying juvenile winner for Archie Watson who appeared to have gone away from his initial style of training, but with Hollie Doyle’s assistance reverted to type. Eddie’s Boy went off like the proverbial substance off a shovel and never looked likely to be troubled by any of the other 19 speedsters in the field.

The win came 90 minutes after a similarly facile victory by Little Big Bear in the Anglesey Stakes at The Curragh. The 2-5 shot, one of a bumper weekend of O’Brien/Moore juvenile winners, had previously won the Windsor Castle Stakes when Eddie’s Boy was third.

The Ascot second, George Scott’s Rocket Rodney, had gone on to win the Listed Dragon Stakes at Sandown and on Friday, Chateau, fourth at Ascot for Andrew Balding, won Newbury’s Listed Rose Bowl Stakes with a strong finish. Some race the Windsor Castle, normally the weakest of the Ascot juvenile contests, is turning out to have been.

The most compelling performance of the lot though was undoubtedly the first appearance in the UK of the now William Haggas-trained German import, Grocer Jack, who was bought for 700,000gns at last year’s Tattersalls Autumn Horses In Training sale having only recently clocked up his second career victory on his 14th start.

Admittedly, he had compiled a good record in Group 3 company in France last summer, winning once, and the year before was third over the line to In Swoop and the following year’s Arc winner, Torquator Tasso, in the German Derby before being disqualified when a banned substance was found in his post-race sample.

After the purchase, the now Saudi-owned five-year-old raced once in his owner’s country, finishing fifth in a Group 3 on the under-card of the Saudi Cup, in which Mishriff finished last having won the race 12 months previously.

Then Grocer Jack had a run-out in early June in France, finishing fourth, so hardly a performance that prepared us for what was to come at Newbury. Sent off by Tom Marquand in front in the Listed bet365 Stakes, the Grocer appeared to be taking matters into his own hands by racing very freely. The conventional thought was to expect Grocer Jack to come back to his field. He didn’t, and instead stretched the lead out to nine lengths by the finish, a margin that could probably have been more likely extended to 15 had Marquand wished.

The only reason I sat up and took notice of the horse is the memory of a song, called An Excerpt From a Teenage Opera from 1967 by an artist called Keith West – I know it’s a while ago. The subject of the song is Grocer Jack and it relates how he disappeared from the corner shop he ran for many years

Near the end, there’s the line, repeated more than once which says “Grocer Jack, Grocer Jack, he won’t come back!” He didn’t!

- TS

Past Run Style as a Profitable Indicator, Part 2

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In this article I am once again revisiting one of my favourite areas – the run style of horses, writes Dave Renham. As with the last article I am focusing on the run style profile of specific horses, using data from 2021 initially and then looking at 2022 results up to the time of writing. Initially, though, we will look at a bigger data set in order to set the scene.

For new readers let me explain run style. Essentially, run style is the position a horse takes up very early on in the race, normally within the first furlong or so. Run styles on this website are split into four categories, as follows:

Led (4) – front runners; a horse that takes an early lead (occasionally more than one horse disputes the lead, in which case we can have more than one ‘front runner’); Prominent (3) – horses that race directly behind the early leader(s); Mid Division (2) – horses that race mid pack or 'in touch' with the leaders; Held Up (1) – horses that race at, or near the back of the field early.

The number in brackets is the run style score that is assigned to each category. These numbers are extremely useful and I will again be using them later to create what I call ‘horse run style averages’.

Each race within the Geegeez racecards has a PACE ‘tab’ from where we can view some past run style data for the race in question. The word ‘pace’ is often used as an alternative to run style as the ‘early pace’ shown by each horse determines the position they take up soon after the start of the race. A maximum of the last four runs is shown as we can see below in this race taken from Epsom in July:

 

 

The latest run (LR) shows the run style in the most recent race, 2LR in the second most recent race, and so on. The last four runs are totalled for members (Total), and an average figure (Ave) is calculated also. In this race the most likely early leaders according to totals/averages were Toussarok and Pablo Del Pueblo. As it turned out, the opening furlong saw Pablo Del Pueblo lead with Toussarok racing in second place. Concierge, who had by far the lowest run style/pace total, conformed to past run style data also by racing at the back early.

And so it is that these pace/run style figures are useful in trying to determine beforehand how a race is likely to be run early on. They are of course not fool proof, but then, what is? Horses are animals, after all – they cannot tell us how they are going to run - and trainers and jockeys will potentially have an influence also (they, like us, are animals, too!)

If you have read any of my previous run style articles, you will know that early leaders generally have a solid edge in races; and particularly in races over shorter distances. For that reason, I am always looking to find means of improving my ability to predict a race's front runner / early leader.

It's time to give you some stats: as you probably know, we tend to call five- and six-furlong races ‘sprints’ due to the fact they are the shortest two distances in flat racing. Looking at all 5f and 6f races in the UK from 2017 to 2020 gives us the following run style strike rates:

 

 

These raw strike rates show a significant run style bias. One in every five wins was for the race early leader, while hold up horses only won around 1 in 16 of such sprint races. In essence, leaders in 5f or 6f races are over three times more likely to win than any individual horse up horse.

If we examine the A/E and IV values too we can see that these correlate strongly with the overall strike rates above:

 

 

The bias to front runners occurs in both handicap and non-handicaps over these sprints trips; and, while the win SR% is higher in non-handicaps, this is mainly due to the average field size being smaller. A/E and IV values are strong regardless of race type for these front runners.

So there is the background to the article and hopefully the graph above backs up what I mentioned earlier in terms of always looking for ways to improve our chances of predicting the front runner, more especially in sprint races.

Now to the meat and bones of my latest research where the focus is, not surprisingly, going to be UK races over 5 and 6 furlongs. There are also strong links to my previous article in terms of comparing two recent time frames, as you will see.

My initial dataset looked at all such races in 2021. To begin with I focused on all horses aged three or older that had raced at least four times in sprints. I used 3yos and older horses because I wanted to look at more experienced runners who, I contend, would be more likely to have developed a run style preference.

 

Horse run style averages

My first port of call was to produce run style averages for each horse, in exactly the same way that I have created run style averages in the past. To achieve this, I added up the Geegeez pace / run style points for each horse over the 2021 season and divided it by the number of races. The higher the average the more prominent the horse tends to race. The averages ranged from 4.00 (horses that led in every race they contested in 2021) to 1.00 (horses that were held up in every race they contested in 2021). Remember, I was exclusively using races over 5 and 6 furlongs to create my averages, so some of these horses may have run over further at some point in the season; those longer races have been ignored in order to allow for a 'pure' sprint dataset.

Once these figures were recorded, I then looked at the 2022 run style data (up to July 8th 2022) so as to create equivalent run style averages for 2022. From there, I wanted to compare the two averages – my hope being that the 2021 run style averages correlated with their 2022 counterparts.

To qualify, each horse needed to have run at least four times in each season. Of course, many of the horses would have run considerably more times, especially in the full 2021 season. In theory, the more the horses run, the more ‘accurate’ their run style average should be in terms of predicting future run style.

488 horses had enough runs in both seasons so it was a decent number of horses to examine. In order to compare the two averages I decided to create six run style/pace average ranges. I used the following groupings - 3.50 to 4.00, 3.00 to 3.49, 2.50 to 2.99, 2.00 to 2.49, 1.50 to 1.99 and 1.00 to 1.49 - then I assigned a letter to each creating six run style ‘categories’ as follows:

 

 

Doing it in this way made sense as I felt it was an easier way to compare the data and hopefully easier for you to understand my finding. To begin with I looked at category ‘A’ horses in 2021, those with run style average 3.50 or above, and compared them with their run style category in 2022.  There were 30 category ‘A’ horses from 2021 and these are the categories in which they resided as of 8th July 2022:

 

 

As we can see 13 of the 30 horses have repeated their extreme front running style of racing in 2022. Eight others are still at the upper end of the run style bracket (category B) with figures of 3.00 to 3.49. Meanwhile, just one of the 30 has averaged under 2.00 this year (categories E / F) meaning just one horse has totally reversed his/her run style from the previous year.

For all that it would have been great to have seen all 30 horses in category ‘A’ for 2022, these remain very pleasing figures.

At the other end of the scale I wanted to look at the performance of genuine hold up horses from 2021 – those in category ‘F’ (average 1.00 to 1.49) to see how their 2022 run style splits compared:

 

 

The results are positive once more, with 19 of the 45 horses again landing in the lowest run style category (F). A further 18 are in category ‘E’, the second lowest grouping. These findings so far are the type of figures I was hoping for, but I had expected them also based on previous research in similar areas.

From here I wanted to look at ALL 2021 run style categories, not just ‘A’ and ‘F’, and make a comparison with 2022. For this I wanted to see what percentage of horses from each 2021 category landed either in the same category or the ‘next door’ category in 2022. To help make sense of what I mean by that sentence (as it is a bit ‘wordy’), my findings are in the following table:

 

 

This table shows very clearly that the run style of a high percentage of sprinters does not alter that much. It is fascinating to note that horses which primarily race nearer the back than the front (categories E and F – average 1.00 to 1.99) have very high consistency percentages (87.64 and 82.22 respectively).

It is also worth sharing that almost two-thirds (313 of the 488 horses, 64.1%) have 2021 and 2022 run style averages within 0.50, or half a run style grade, of each other; that's another indication of how useful and accurate run style averages can be.

I want to leave you with the horses whose run style averages from 2021 to 2022 (to date) have a difference of just 0.30 or less. We should be fairly confident that this group of horses have a definite run style preference:

 

Horse5-6f 20212021 RSA5-6f 20222022 RSADiff
Alcazan43.2543.250
Bungledupinblue132420
Chipstead62.542.50
Equitation82.2542.250
Glorious Charmer1021320
Grandads Best Girl52.452.40
Hope Springs61.561.50
King Of Stars103.853.80
Nellie French61.1761.170
Newyorkstateofmind153630
Recall The Show92.8992.890
Rhubarb102.6102.60
Steelriver911110
Strike Red101.451.40
Red Walls182.94142.930.02
Stone Circle72.1462.170.02
Zargun132.6962.670.03
Orchid Rose91.7841.750.03
Ustath153.5363.50.03
Shallow Hal92.33102.30.03
Amazing Amaya81.13111.090.03
Wentworth Falls111.6451.60.04
Enduring143.6453.60.04
Endowed111.5561.50.05
Qaaraat373.11133.150.05
Dapper Man173.3553.40.05
Second Collection141.2161.170.05
Helvetian62.3372.290.05
Mashaan42.7552.80.05
Ascot Jungle92.5642.50.06
Some Nightmare92.4442.50.06
Be Proud181.56101.50.06
Buniann141.591.440.06
First Verse91.5641.50.06
Jawwaal91.5641.50.06
James Watt142.1452.20.06
Our Man In Havana132.3142.250.06
One Hart62.6752.60.07
Ginato101.691.670.07
Tathmeen171.53131.460.07
Aberama Gold113.1883.250.07
Come On Girl101.571.430.07
Dream Composer71.4381.50.07
Al Simmo73.5743.50.07
Cuppacoco73.4343.50.07
Koropick142.3672.290.07
Lord Of The Glen142.07520.07
Spring Bloom73.5743.50.07
Gullane One113.7353.80.07
Gustav Graves52131.920.08
Soul Seeker172.5962.670.08
Jack Ryan81.2591.330.08
Rainbow Mirage91.3341.250.08
Thaki121.7561.830.08
Gherkin122.5842.50.08
Havagomecca92.3342.250.08
Lethal Blast123.92540.08
The Tron82.2562.170.08
Mrs Bagerran73.2953.20.09
Muatadel112.09420.09
Mutabaahy221.91920.09
Twice Adaay111.91620.09
Million Reasons71.5791.670.1
Under Curfew102.752.80.1
Della Mare53.443.50.1
Elland Road Boy52.442.50.1
Elzaal102.482.50.1
La Roca Del Fuego103.553.60.1
Many A Star52.462.50.1
Peachey Carnehan101.9620.1
Shamshon202102.10.1
Venturous131.2361.330.1
Rathbone112.1872.290.1
Swell Song73.1443.250.11
Dark Side Prince113.0953.20.11
Swiss Pride92.2292.110.11
Tenaya Canyon91.89520.11
Youllovemewheniwin92.2262.330.11
Absolute Dream82.13420.13
Aish83.13730.13
Amnaa82.6342.750.13
Chairmanoftheboard81.6341.750.13
Makanah81.6341.750.13
Point Of Woods81.3841.50.13
Prospect42.7582.880.13
Singe Anglais81.13610.13
Sound Of Iona161.88620.13
Triggered91.5671.430.13
The Gloaming141.93101.80.13
Jordan Electrics112.7372.860.13
Boogie Time93.6753.80.13
Edessann101.261.330.13
Kapono91.3351.20.13
Look Out Louis63.3353.20.13
Mansfield182.67102.80.13
The Thin Blue Line102.3122.170.13
Wade's Magic152.4752.60.13
Count D'orsay151.5351.40.13
Bergerac73.14730.14
Copper Knight143.14630.14
Ey Up It's Maggie10372.860.14
Lothian72.8672.710.14
Miss Nay Never4372.860.14
Whittle Le Woods5372.860.14
Twilight Heir42.7552.60.15
Freedom Flyer112.1862.330.15
Silent Flame92.5652.40.16
We're Reunited143.3653.20.16
Miss Bella Brand111.9141.750.16
Lethal Angel112.3652.20.16
Mid Winster113.3653.20.16
Blazing Hot102.592.670.17
Bossipop183.17630.17
Company Minx122.6742.50.17
Penombre5262.170.17
Burrows Seeside61.561.330.17
Glamorous Force181.83820.17
Moveonup92.44132.620.17
Igotatext52.472.570.17
Internationaldream72.5742.750.18
Scale Force142.43122.250.18
Ventura Express112.18420.18
Dark Shot232.78102.60.18
High Security132.3872.570.19
Sparkling Diamond61.3371.140.19
John Kirkup82.3872.570.2
Redrosezorro52.652.80.2
Diamond Cottage7251.80.2
Lost My Sock151.8761.670.2
Seneca Chief101.851.60.2
Abate12352.80.2
Airshow103.7123.50.2
Apollo One53.2530.2
Dave Dexter4352.80.2
Khulu4252.20.2
Rhythm52.8530.2
Rolfe Rembrandt4252.20.2
Silver Diva102.2820.2
Storm Over102.742.50.2
Ubahha81.75111.550.2
Phoenix Star171.7691.560.21
Eeh Bah Gum103.192.890.21
Good Listener41.571.290.21
Nacho141.79820.21
Expert Opinion182.572.290.21
Tanasoq161.4491.220.22
Lihou192.8482.630.22
Hurricane Alert182.2882.50.22
Rory101.681.380.23
Storm Melody212.4882.250.23
Nomadic Empire112.2742.50.23
Mokaman63132.770.23
Pivoting72.5762.330.24
Yukon Mission112.9162.670.24
Global Warning91.5651.80.24
Abduction41.541.750.25
Atyaaf123.25430.25
Ballintoy Harbour8342.750.25
Blissful Song10242.250.25
Chocco Star6141.250.25
Cottam Lane8342.750.25
Dakota Gold63.543.250.25
Due A Win7242.250.25
Iesha122.75102.50.25
Isle Of Lismore8241.750.25
Lady Nectar61.541.250.25
Mohareb42.25720.25
Papas Girl81.3881.130.25
Prince Of Abington81.75520.25
So Grateful83.543.250.25
Surewecan61.541.250.25
Pettochside112.4552.20.25
Hey Ho Let's Go92.67132.920.26
Count Otto52.672.860.26
Sir Gregory62.17111.910.26
Primo's Comet111.4571.710.26
Fine Wine63.17143.430.26
Mondammej171.2481.50.26
Brandy Station153.0763.330.27
Cool Spirit133152.730.27
Griggy52.662.330.27
Show Me A Sunset152.27520.27
Toussarok53.663.330.27
Rebel Redemption173.3583.630.27
Temple Bruer111.73420.27
Stallone81.8851.60.28
Mister Bluebird92.7842.50.28
Gowanlad92.1161.830.28
Good Earth171.47121.750.28
Portelet Bay122.58102.30.28
Refuge122.9253.20.28
Excessable13272.290.29
May Remain71.71620.29
Thegreyvtrain243.5883.880.29
Ghathanfar132.54122.830.29
Liberty Bay103.3630.3
Stroxx52.6102.90.3
Classy Al41.551.80.3
Polam Lane61.551.80.3
Strong Power112101.70.3

 

There are 201 horses in this list and I am confident they will show a similar running style for the rest of this season. When one of more of these horses contest a five- or six-furlong sprint, the easier it should be to predict how the early run style/pace is going to look. Whilst I have only applied these run style comparisons to 5-6f races, the concept could be easily expanded to horses that race primarily in other distance groups, too.

Good luck.

- DR

Monday Musings: Horse Traders

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For a few years now I’ve had a constant companion on my bedside table, writes Tony Stafford. Horse Trader, published in the early 1990’s and written by Patrick Robinson with Nick Robinson, tells the story of Robert Sangster’s unlikely path to the pinnacle of international racing and breeding.

I’ve read it cover to cover at least six times and when I tell you it must be the best part of 250,000 words (at least three times as long as my sporadic offerings over the years) that’s plenty of reading material.

Nick Robinson, like the young Sangster, prospective heir to serious money, back in the late 1960’s had knowledge of racing through family connections. Over time in a Liverpool coffee house then favoured by the sons of leaders of Northern industry, he imbued his friend, the heir to the Vernon’s Football Pools fortune, with a similar love of the sport.

Without Nick Robinson there would have been no Sadler’s Wells, no Golden Fleece, no Galileo. None of the many champions of the past 40 years to have emanated from Ballydoyle and its adjunct Coolmore stud in its two distinct phases. The first, which goes to the end of the book in 1992, is basically pre-Arab domination.

Then there is the second period where the skill and enterprise from Vincent O’Brien’s successor, the not related Aidan, linked always by the constant of John Magnier, Vincent’s son-in-law. Magnier of course was the man who recruited the young O’Brien to succeed Vincent as well as embracing Michael Tabor and later Derrick Smith to the party in place of such as Sangster and Danny Schwartz as well as others who dipped in and out, like Stavros Niarchos.

At one time the owner himself of more than 1,000 horses worldwide and at the time of the book’s conclusion, owner of shares in all the best Coolmore stallions, Sangster’s destiny seemed secure. His six children, sons Ben, Guy and Adam and daughter Kate from his first marriage, and Sam and yet to be born Max from his third, could anticipate a never-ending stream of wonderful thoroughbreds in the family ownership.

But, as Sam said when I suggested it to him one day last year: “As if!”  Recently though, the wider family fortunes on the racecourse have shone, particularly with Saffron Beach, the four-year-old filly trained by their Australian-born step-sister Jane Chapple-Hyam, daughter of Sangster’s middle wife, Susan mark 1. Winner of the Group 2 Duke Of Cambridge Stakes at the Royal meeting last month, Saffron Beach is owned by Ben’s wife Lucy, James Wigan, and Ben and Lucy’s son, Olly.

The success of the Sangster, O’Brien, Magnier formula only came to its conclusion as the competition from the Arabs strangled the team’s buying power in Kentucky. For more than a decade their team of unrivalled experts had monopolised the best-bred and best-conformed individuals almost to the extent of “what we want we get!”

In some of the latter years, that buying power had greatly eroded and people like Schwartz, who was accustomed to put up his few million dollars every July (as it then was) and sit back and wait for the Classic and Group/Grade 1 wins to roll in and the stallions to roll off the production line, could no longer rely on that certitude.

Classic Thoroughbreds was the would-be replacement scheme whereby Vincent thought the Irish racing fan would take the opportunity to buy into his proven “buy and win the biggest races” formula. It needed, though, many thousands of small shareholders rather than a few major players taking serious financial positions to work.

It did initially succeed, to the extent that Royal Academy, the yearling O’Brien coveted above all those of the 1988 Kentucky yearling crop, won the July Cup and then later memorably the Breeders’ Cup Mile. Ridden by Lester Piggott on that never-to-be-forgotten day at Belmont Park in October 1990, only weeks after Piggott’s release from his prison term, he came past the whole field to win under his 54-year-old jockey. But it was unsustainable.

Meanwhile, Sangster had bought Manton, the historic Wiltshire training estate, spending lavishly under Michael Dickinson’s brief stewardship. The first year’s meagre return of four wins inevitably ended the Dickinson era and as MW went on to win major races in the US, Sangster battled on.  Barry Hills had a successful stint there but when Barry moved on to open a public stable in Lambourn, his assistant Peter Chapple-Hyam took over, making an instant impact.

Dr Devious had been a hard-working two-year-old, winning even before Royal Ascot, where he finished runner-up to Dilum, before his Superlative and Dewhurst Stakes successes. Sold to Jenny Craig and husband Sidney, he was bought principally to run in the Kentucky Derby and after a prep race second in Newmarket he shipped to Kentucky but he could finish only seventh to Lil E.Tee.

In such circumstances he was in some ways a surprise Derby winner, returning after such a short time, his toughness enabling him to beat St Jovite by two lengths. St Jovite got full revenge in the Irish Derby, but the Doctor gained a second narrow win over his rival in the Irish Champion Stakes for Jim Bolger and owner Virginia Kraft Payson that September.

Earlier that year, 1992, Rodrigo De Triano had given Lester his final English Classic win in the 2000 Guineas, adding to it at The Curragh with the Irish equivalent a fortnight later. He did take his chance in the Derby under Piggott and actually started the 13-2 favourite, but could finish only ninth of 18. Returned to shorter trips, further success came in the Juddmonte at York and in the Champion Stakes. He was sold as a stallion to Japan.

Chapple-Hyam was still at the helm when Commander Collins won the 1999 Superlative Stakes and Racing Post Trophy in front of young Sam Sangster, but then the rift came. John Gosden took over as the Millennium turned with Jimmy Fortune as his stable jockey. After Robert’s death in 2004 his older boys kept the show going with Brian Meehan as their trainer.

Success was never far away and Meehan, previously assistant to Richard Hannon, always had a sure hand with young horses and also developed many high-class fillies. Over the years he has won big races all around the world - one of his Breeders’ Cup successes came with a first-crop son of Galileo, the three-year-old Red Rocks who won the Turf race in 2006.

In later years the Sangsters sold Manton, although Ben still lives in Manton House and has also moved the mares and young stock of the family’s Swettenham Stud to land close to the house. Martyn Meade, now training in conjunction with son Freddie in another part of the 2,000-acre estate, is its owner.

When I started this piece, I used Horse Trader simply because of an encounter at Newmarket on Saturday afternoon after Isaac Shelby, trained by Brian Meehan, won the Group 2 Superlative Stakes. The colt is owned by Manton Thoroughbreds, a syndicate set up by Sam Sangster, who buys all the stock, usually as yearlings.

Earlier in the meeting, before Isaac Shelby ran a brave race to remain unbeaten after a drawn-out battle with 5-4 favourite Victory Dance, another Sangster yearling buy, Show Respect, was an excellent second in the Group 2 July Stakes. He is also trained by Meehan.

I’ve had the privilege of visiting Manton many times, and as I go through Marlborough and along the half-mile-plus long drive down to the Meehan stable area, the excitement never fails. It was there that I saw the gallop when Derby favourite Crown Prince flopped many lengths behind Delegator. I backed the latter at 33’s that morning, forgetting to add the words “each-way”. Sea The Stars had the temerity to beat him!

Sam and Brian, along with Brian’s wife Jax, were suitably thrilled on Saturday when all the chat, much of it fuelled by an on-the-ball Matt Chapman, was about the last winners of the Superlative Stakes to win in those colours – Sam has secured the use of his dad’s green, blue and white for Manton Thoroughbreds – to much approval on Saturday.

Everyone remembered Derby winner Dr Devious – sold by Robert to Jenny Craig, the California diet magnate, before his Classic win – but Sam also recalled Commander Collins. “I came that day with dad and I think I was ten or maybe eleven.”

Incidentally, Commander Collins was named after one of Robert’s great friends, Old Etonian trainer AK “Tony” Collins, who found fame or rather infamy for his role in the Gay Future affair, when some of the horses linked in multiple bets rather mysteriously did not manage to leave their stables on that Bank Holiday. The one that did, Gay Future, won and with bookmakers prevented from laying off commitments when the phones went down, it caused a furore in those innocent days. You couldn’t cause a whole telephone exchange to be out of commission nowadays – or could you?

Well A K spent Friday afternoon in the owners’ restaurant at Newmarket in the company of another grand old stager, former trainer Bill Watts. From a famous Newmarket training family, Bill left to go north to Richmond, Yorkshire, from where he sent Teleprompter and Tony Ives to Chicago to win the Arlington Million in 1985. Watts has moved back to Newmarket since retiring from training.

I managed a quiet word with Sam when the excitement died down a little later and said: “I always told you that you were the most like your father,” a suggestion that always brings its share of embarrassment for him. But he did say: “You know Horse Trader? Dad is wearing a tie on the front, and I’ve had it in my possession for years, but am wearing it today for the first time,” pointing to the rather old-fashioned neckpiece.

Trying to find potential Classic and Group-race winners in face of such incredible competition is getting ever harder and to secure the Night Of Thunder colt Isaac Shelby, Sam had to stretch to 92,000gns, one of his more expensive buys. The Godolphin-owned runner-up, by Dubawi, and trained by Charlie Appleby cost £700k. In this market, that colt will be regarded by connections as being right on track and showing terrific potential, so Isaac looks very well bought.

For me, the best part of the Sangster/Meehan operation is their mutual trust and loyalty. Brian has had some quieter years from the heyday when he had more than 100 horses in his team but, like most longer-established trainers, he finds it harder to get new owners and therefore new blood.

Sam, still in his early 30’s, does though have access to younger businesspeople who find enjoyment in the syndicated horses he unearths and buys. Meehan, as with Isaac Shelby, does the rest. If that ends up with a Group 1 success, which looks eminently possible about this still unfurnished and to the shrewd John Egan’s eyes, “still up-behind” colt, that could easily be the eventual outcome.

- TS

Roving Reports: Royal Ascot

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David Massey, roving reporter

David Massey, roving reporter

Hello Geegeez readers!

My name is David Massey and, after meeting Matt at Ascot recently, I'm delighted to be bringing you the odd tale from my travels around the country. As many of you know, as well as doing some writing with my old sparring partner Mr Delargy, I also enjoy my time working for a few of the books on-course in the summer. It's essentially the nearest thing I get to exercise these days, and if you think that's stretching a point, I invite you to try and hump a load of bookmaking kit from Car Park 6 to the Queen Anne Enclosure at Royal Ascot as the mercury hits 25 at nine in the morning. It works a couple of bacon sandwiches off, I'm pretty sure.

Thank the Lord I was working in the shade of the stands all week, though, as those in the Windsor Enclosure cooked like lobsters for the latter part of the meeting. I do not work well in sunshine, as a recent dose of sunstroke at Epsom on Oaks Day will testify (threw up on return to the hotel at 6pm, passed out on the bed, woke four hours later to a text asking if I wanted anything bringing back from Nando's - I can tell you now that eating peri-peri chicken at that point made as much appeal as getting out of the car park at Worcester) and so to be front row in the Queen Anne Enclosure for the week was a real joy.

I'm not really here to tell you about all the bets we take week to week, more the stories and the people I meet along the way. That said, I will point out the more interesting/strange bets we’ve taken, and that starts right here, right now, with the Queen Anne.

There weren't any money-buyers around willing to take the 1-6 Baaeed but there were plenty of ladies wanting a fiver each-way on him. Now, as a frontman, it is not my job to advise, merely to smile, be polite and take the money, so I do not put anyone off their bets. We take six such wagers, all of whom are delighted to collect their one pound and four pence profit afterwards.

Business is steady rather than spectacular. We've one bloke betting rags, he picks up a decent chunk from his £20 each-way on Acklam Express at 150-1 in the Kings Stand, and immediately has fifty each-way of it back on Lusail in the St James's Palace, falling just a head away from the jackpot. Suffice to say, he's having a good day.

I'm working for the S&D firm all week, with Rob the boss and Jason running the book. Rob is on the rail with his partner Vanessa, and business there is about a third of what we are doing. Not even Rob's top hat and tails can pull the crowds in. The rest of Tuesday passes by without a whimper, business overall about half of what it ought to be.

We're staying in Windsor all week, with Rob renting a house for us, but we've come across the first problem. Jason and I are sharing a room for the first two days (Jason is then off to Newmarket to run the book there) but the room is snug, to say the least, and there's no way we can fit the second bed in without falling over each other. It's decided the best thing to do is for Jason to book himself in at Heathrow Premier Inn whilst he's down here, and I get the room to myself. That sounds terrific, but as Jason points out, he now gets a ready-made cooked breakfast every morning, whereas I've got cereal to look forward to. I'm not sure who's getting the best end of this deal, to be honest.

What I can tell you is the new black shoes I’ve bought for the week have made my heel bleed, so they get sacked off, and I return to my battered, but comfy, brown ones for the rest of the meeting. I really ought to have bedded them in. Let this be a lesson, kids.

Wednesday sees us betting in the same position as Tuesday, which I'm also grateful for, and it's a noticeably younger crowd. That means asking for quite a few IDs (they all have them, I'm delighted to say) and it also means a few lads, with a fair bit of ale down them in hot weather, milling around in front of us. They've all got massive cigars. Some of them are even lit. They move off and stand in front of the joint next to us, good news for us but bad news for Richard, running the Liles Bet pitch. We have a chat and decide it's going to kick off at some point, and I reckon it'll be after race five. It turns out I'm better at predicting fight times than I am at what's going to win on the day, as the oh-so-predictable scrap takes place after the Hunt Cup. The one security lady in the ring watches on, wisely not getting involved.

Business is again well down, about 40% on pre-Covid levels. We've two ladies betting with us that are very pleasant but haven't a clue what to back. Liam (my co-worker) and I give the best advice we can, and we somehow manage to fathom a winner or two for them. One of them has some fancy cocktail to drink, which has the colour and consistency of cough medicine. I ask her how much it set her back, only to find the answer is "nothing" as she's got hospitality this afternoon and work are paying! I ask if she could possibly bring Liam and me a cold drink down, as it's really warm. When she comes back with two pints for us five minutes later, they are greeted with a cheer as if the Queen herself has had a winner.

Thursday sees us betting next to Rob Waterhouse, the, ahem, colourful Aussie bookmaker. They're all in top hats, I'm in a pink shirt. Couldn't look more different if we tried. Ironically, the friendliest punter we have all day is an Aussie, who we know as Peter, as he's a friend of Liam and myself now. I ask him why he's not betting with his fellow countryman, and the reply I get is not suitable for a family column. If I left the expletives out, he said nothing at all. In fact, he makes his opinions loudly known, and I suspect that may well be for the benefit of next door as much as us.

Pete's an absolute gem, full of stories from around the world, where he's been racing, who he's met, the whole time littering his stories with ribald jokes, and he has us in stitches. This is what I love about this job: meeting new people, making new friends. You don't do that sitting in an office. He's here with an Aussie racing tour, and although he'll miss Friday, he tells us he will be back Saturday - in the Royal Enclosure. We look forward to his return in top hat and tails. More so than he does, actually.

There's two women betting with us, sisters from Hertfordshire, they tell us. One likes me (“aren’t you polite?”) so much after a few cocktails (and winners) that I get a marriage proposal. This is both lovely and unexpected, but I tell her I have to work tomorrow.

As it is with Baaeed, so it is with the long odds-on Reach For The Moon, as the ladies all come with their fiver each-ways for Frankie. I sometimes think Frankie could ride something called Neddy, fresh off the lunchtime shift from Blackpool beach at Ascot, and we’d still take money for him. This time, the ladies knew, as Frankie can only finish second, and the each-way backers have the last laugh.

We eat in a pub in nearby Datchet that night, but it's clear all is not well with Rob, who is complaining he's feeling poorly. He pushes his pie around with a fork for five minutes before announcing he's not hungry. This is almost unprecedented. Rob likes his food like, well, I like my food, so to see him leave a near-full plate is a rare sight. We quickly work out from his symptoms that he's also now got sunstroke. Back to the digs, get some water down him, and he's asleep within five minutes. Next morning he's up at half five, counting the money. He's clearly feeling better.

Friday. The temperature is rising, and so is business. It's clear within ten minutes of setting up that it's going to be a lot busier. Rob is now in charge of the book, with Jason off to Newmarket. The only consistent thing about Rob is his inconsistency. As Jason says before he leaves for Newmarket, "we're either going to break level on the week, or win thirty grand." I think that sums Rob up beautifully.

It is typical that, on what turns out to be our busiest day, the results go completely against us. The punters are smashing us to bits. After Inspiral wins the Coronation, I run out of money, and have to go and get another float. Surely we can get a result in the Sandringham? We cannot, and Heredia is another disaster. One guy, who started the day having £40 on the first winner, has kept playing it up and is drawing £700 here. £500 goes straight back on Changingoftheguard. Grand Alliance has him beat all ways up before he decides to go for a wander late on. It's a bloodbath. They're carrying some of the bookmakers out on stretchers. The first four bets for the last come in, and all four are on Latin Lover. I tell Liam to shorten the price. It makes no difference. I cannot get them off it, no matter how much we take and keep shortening it. The payout queue is long, very long. Not as long as it is at Waterhouse's though. "Is this the queue for the boat rides?" shouts one wag as he walks past.

We eat at the house that night, having ordered Dominos. Rob wolfs his down, clearly back on form, retires to the sofa, and starts watching poker videos (he plays, and very well, I’m told) on his phone. Vanessa looks at me. “Ten minutes” she says, and she’s wrong by around two minutes, as it takes just eight of them for Rob to fall asleep.

Finally, we reach Saturday. As things stand. we've got the expenses for the week and have today to make a profit. We're all absolutely knackered by this point, this week really does take it out of you, and you have to have one last push to get you over the line. Thankfully, it's a bit cooler today - indeed, there's a shower or two around in the morning, which is very welcome - and believe me, that really does help you when you're on your last legs.

After meeting an old friend in Lisa, who I used to work with back in Skegness during my Our Price days (yes, that far back) we get betting around 1pm. Again, this feels busier. It's been a week of two halves, the latter much more like pre-Covid times than the former.

"How are you pair of bloody degenerates doing?" Pete's back, in his best, and he tells us he's in a box with Gai Waterhouse, Rob’s wife. He's got the photos to prove it, too. "She's a lot nicer than he is." He has a bet, a fiver each-way Rohaan in the Wokingham. Not only a lovely bloke, but a decent bloke, is Peter. He picks up and says his final goodbyes. A genuinely sad moment, we've enjoyed his company.

And then, after a week of warm, sunny weather, comes the rain. It's absolutely ferocious. None of us were prepared for this, and none of us have a coat. Heather, Liam's girlfriend, is working with us and she has just her summer dress on. Liam, the git, refuses to give his jacket up for her and it's left to me to do the chivalrous thing. At least I have a long-sleeved shirt on, but it's not helping. The wind has whipped up and it's like working at Newmarket on Cesarewitch day. I'm absolutely soaked by the time the Ascot Ces, the Queen Alexandra, comes around. Someone has £200 ew Reshoun at 20s with me and with half a furlong to go, I'm thinking I might need to go and fetch some money. But no, here's Buick and Stratum to save the day.

The only good thing is, the rain abates just in time to pack up. We all get paid for the week - the Saturday results have been good, and I rather liked Naval Crown anyway, so Rob kept that for himself - and there are top-ups for all. We say our goodbyes, knowing that we'll all meet again at Southwell on Monday.

- DM

Past Run Style as a Profitable Indicator

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In this article, I continue to look into run style and its impact on the outcome of horse races, writes Dave Renham. This piece focuses on the run style profile of individual horses and initially examines data from 2021, before comparing with results from the first part of the 2022 flat season, up to June 24th.

Before divulging my findings, for new readers I will briefly discuss what is meant by run style. Essentially, run style is the position a horse takes up very early on in the race. These are split into four categories as follows:

Led (4) – front runners; horses or horses that take an early lead; Prominent (3) – horses that track the pace close behind the leader(s); Mid Division (2) – horses that race mid pack; Held Up (1) – horses that race at, or near the back of the field early.

The number in brackets is the run style score that is assigned to each section. These numbers can be a useful tool for number crunchers like myself and they will be used at certain points in this article.

If we look at any Geegeez racecard and click on the pace ‘tab’ we get some past run style data for the race in question. Here is an example from April of this year – a 5f handicap at Windsor:

 

 

As can be seen, the run style figures from each horse's previous four races are shown (LR, 2LR, 3LR, 4LR). These figures are quite tight / close and hence it is difficult to be confident about predicting the order in which the field is likely to order itself early in the race.

The most important run style prediction is always which horse is most likely to front run and that is tricky here too. La Roca Del Fuego topped the list, just, on 14 points, so was marginally the most likely front runner, and as it turned out did lead from start to finish.

 

 

However, pre-race, one could not have been confident that La Roca Del Fuego was going to lead. In an ideal world when trying to predict the front runner, we would prefer a horse to be well ahead numerically of the rest of its field. For example, Horse A has 16 points (the maximum possible for a four-race sample), and Horses B, C, D, etc all have scores in single figures. Even then we cannot guarantee Horse A will lead but all things being considered, the chances are very likely he/she will.

Some less regular readers at this point may be asking themselves why trying to predict the front runner is a useful thing to try to do. The answer is simple: front runners are the best value at most distances on the flat; and many distances over the sticks, too. For example, in 5f handicaps in the UK from 1st Jan 2018 to 31st Dec 2020, if you had predicted who would front run pre-race and place a £1 bet on every single horse you would have won nearly 20% of all your bets for an impressive profit of £619.46 (ROI +32.7%).

 

Now to the article proper as it were:

My focus today is on UK handicaps of 5 furlongs to 1 mile; I am using these races as there is a strong front running bias in general at shorter distances. The bias is strongest over 5f (see example above), but it is still potent up to a mile on most courses. My initial dataset looked at all such races in 2021.

To start with I focused on all horses that had raced at least 4 times in 5f - 1 mile handicaps in 2021. From there I wanted to check a few different things.

 

Horse run style averages (UK turf flat handicaps, 5f-1m, 2021)

First stop was producing run style averages for each horse: this was performed in exactly the same way that I have created trainer, jockey and course run style averages in the past. I simply added up the Geegeez pace / run style points for a particular horse over the 2021 season and divided it by the number of races. The higher the average the more prominent the horse tends to race. The averages ranged from 4.00 (horses that led in every race they contested in 2021) to 1.00 (horses that were held up in every race they contested in 2021). Just 12 horses had run style averages of 4.00, which will come as no surprise as I was looking at ALL their runs in these handicaps over the year.

There was a horse that raced 37 times in 2021 – yes, 37! The horse in question was Qaaraat. Qaaraat had a run style average for the year of 3.11 thanks to leading 11 times, racing prominently 21 times, mid-division three times, and being held up just twice.

Here is a selection of horses with their run style averages for 2021. I have chosen those with some of the highest run style averages, and those with some of the lowest – the number of races they contested in also shown:

 

Horse 2021 races 2021 run style average Horse 2021 races 2021 run style average
How Bizarre 5 4.00 Diffident Spirit 4 1.25
Isla Kai 4 4.00 Elmejor 4 1.25
Master Matt 4 4.00 Hope Springs 4 1.25
Pinnata 6 4.00 James Park Woods 4 1.25
Tomouh 5 4.00 London Palladium 8 1.25
Ventura Rascal 7 4.00 Maysong 8 1.25
Lethal Blast 12 3.92 Munificent 4 1.25
Motawaazy 11 3.91 Natchez Trace 4 1.25
Asad 8 3.88 Nick Vedder 12 1.25
Rains Of Castamere 7 3.86 Otto Oyl 4 1.25
Grandfather Tom 6 3.83 Pentimento 4 1.25
La Roca Del Fuego 6 3.83 Rectory Road 12 1.25
Show Yourself 6 3.83 Rooful 4 1.25
Destroyer 5 3.80 Mondammej 17 1.24
Eye Of The Water 5 3.80 Eyes 13 1.23
King Of Stars 10 3.80 Treacherous 13 1.23
Mejthaam 5 3.80 Imperium Blue 9 1.22
Siam Fox 5 3.80 Mutanaaseq 14 1.21
Toussarok 14 3.79 Second Collection 14 1.21
Araifjan 13 3.77 Aiguillette 5 1.20
Twilight Madness 4 3.75 Amazing Amaya 5 1.20
Kraka 15 3.73 Cairn Gorm 5 1.20
Gullane One 11 3.73 Celsius 5 1.20
Ornate 11 3.73 Edessann 10 1.20
Howzak 7 3.71 Engles Rock 5 1.20
Just Glamorous 7 3.71 Our Little Pony 5 1.20
Zulu Girl 7 3.71 Power On 10 1.20
Airshow 10 3.70 Snazzy Jazzy 5 1.20
Fangorn 10 3.70 Urban Highway 5 1.20
Thaayer 10 3.70 Jewel Maker 11 1.18
Harrogate 16 3.69 Lady Alavesa 11 1.18
Al Simmo 6 3.67 Air To Air 6 1.17
Alcazan 9 3.67 Billian 6 1.17
Autumn Flight 12 3.67 Fantasy Believer 6 1.17
Boogie Time 9 3.67 La Rav 6 1.17
Enduring 15 3.67 Power Player 6 1.17
Global Esteem 11 3.64 True Mason 12 1.17
Gometra Ginty 11 3.64 Duke Of Firenze 19 1.16
Antagonize 8 3.63 The Cola Kid 13 1.15
Bankawi 8 3.63 Fauvette 7 1.14
Blackcurrent 8 3.63 Magnetised 7 1.14
Charming Kid 8 3.63 Papas Girl 7 1.14
Just Frank 8 3.63 Surprise Picture 7 1.14
Air Raid 5 3.60 Alba Del Sole 8 1.13
Alba De Tormes 5 3.60 Clashaniska 8 1.13
Animal Instinct 5 3.60 Desert Land 16 1.13
Forest Falcon 5 3.60 Otago 8 1.13
Hieronymus 5 3.60 Canoodled 9 1.11
Langholm 10 3.60 Bronze River 10 1.10
Wings Of A Dove 5 3.60 Libby Ami 11 1.09
Bowman 12 3.58 Venturous 11 1.09
Thegreyvtrain 24 3.58 De Vegas Kid 12 1.08
Gobi Sunset 7 3.57 Golden Apollo 12 1.08
Healing Power 7 3.57 Van Dijk 14 1.07
Spring Bloom 7 3.57 Alicestar 6 1.00
Bezzas Lad 9 3.56 Biplane 4 1.00
Mountain Brave 9 3.56 Catch My Breath 14 1.00
Militia 11 3.55 Chocco Star 6 1.00
Goddess Of Fire 13 3.54 Divine Messenger 6 1.00
Late Arrival 15 3.53 Dundory 4 1.00
Ustath 17 3.53 Eligible 6 1.00
Bert Kibbler 6 3.50 Fastnet Crown 6 1.00
Big Bard 4 3.50 Inaam 7 1.00
Captain Corcoran 10 3.50 Marselan 7 1.00
Della Mare 4 3.50 Mayson Mount 5 1.00
Firepower 6 3.50 Nellie French 4 1.00
Louie de Palma 6 3.50 Raatea 7 1.00
Marnie James 8 3.50 Sanaadh 13 1.00
Modular Magic 6 3.50 Sin E Shekells 5 1.00
Punchbowl Flyer 8 3.50 Steelriver 5 1.00
Rhubarb Bikini 6 3.50 Stone Of Destiny 6 1.00
Secret Handsheikh 10 3.50 Sunset 5 1.00
Sir Titan 6 3.50 Tangled 9 1.00
Wrenthorpe 6 3.50 Wicklow Warrior 4 1.00

 

To be honest, I wasn’t sure how relevant looking at run style averages from a longer period of time (rather than the four most recent races) would be; but I use longer term data for trainers and jockeys so felt there was some logic to justify analysing it.

Now I had the run style averages for 2021 for each horse, I grouped them as follows:

1.49 or below
1.50 to 1.99
2.00 to 2.29
2.30 to 2.59
2.60 to 2.99
3.00 to 3.49
3.50 to 4.00

 

From there I looked at the performance of each of the groups in terms of 2021 results. Here is what I found – I looked at strike rates first:

 

 

As the graph neatly shows, horses with higher run style averages based on the 2021 season were more successful in terms of strike rate. Horses that had an average of at least 3.5 for 2021 scored nearly 20% of the time. If we now do a comparison of return on investment (ROI%) we can see a clear correlation:

 

 

I used a line graph here as it is slightly easier to see than if using a bar chart. There was a huge return on investment for horses with an average of 3.5 or more – more than 40p in the £.

 

Horse Led Percentages (UK turf flat handicaps, 5f-1m, 2021)

I did the same type of analysis but using 'led percentages' rather than run style averages. In order words, I worked out in what percentage of races each horse led early during 2021. For instance, if a horse ran ten times and it led early in four of these, its figure would be 40%. As with run style averages, I grouped the led percentages to ensure acceptably sized datasets:

 

 

The chart shows a very similar pattern to what we saw with run style averages: this time, horses that led the most in percentage terms were the most successful.

Here are the figures in terms of return on investment:

 

 

Again, there is excellent correlation with both graphs; in fact all four graphs correlate strongly. Horses that led in 50% or more of their races in 2021 were extremely profitable – a return of £1.28 for every £1 bet. It should also be noted that these returns are based on starting prices, so with early prices, BOG or Betfair SP one would expect to improve markedly on this baseline figure.

 

Let's stop using history to predict the past...

Now statisticians will tell you, quite rightly, that using past data from one particular year in this way is going to produce slightly skewed results. This is because we are looking retrospectively at horse performances; we know horses that lead early win more and so looking at horses that led the most often in 2021 should produce the kind of positive results we have seen.

However, there are two points I’d like to make. Firstly, these data prove the point once more about how important early speed is, and secondly it shows that creating horse run style averages seems to be a worthwhile project. Indeed, the run style averages actually outperformed the led percentages, at least at the business end of their respective spectrums (the highest run style averages versus the highest led %’s).

At this point in my research I decided to use the 2021 run style averages I had created and apply them to races in 2022 – up to June 24th. Of course, these run style averages are based on the previous year with no new runs in 2022 taken into account. However, I was hoping to demonstrate that the higher run style averages would still outperform the lower ones. This is what I found.

 

 

The strike rates are much more even as you might expect, but still there is a positive edge when we get to a run style average of 3 or more. Conversely, the two lowest strike rates also occur for the two lowest run style groups. The best part, naturally, is seeing the profit/loss figures – profits for those averaging 3 to 3.49 and 3.5 to 4; and the commensurate losses for horses averaging 2.59 or lower are quite steep when viewed as a group.

As we have done to this point, let us again overlay the 2021 led percentages on the 2022 results hoping for a similarly upbeat picture:

 

 

It is gratifying to see similar results here. Specifically, horses that led 20% or more in 2021 have outperformed lower 'led percentage' groups both in strike rate terms and in returns on investment. Meanwhile, a 2021 'led percentage' of 33.3% to 49% produced a small profit from 2022 runs, with considerably bigger profits generated by the 50% or more group.

 

Closing thoughts

The main takeaway from this research into 5f to 1mile handicaps is that horses which led more often (in percentage terms) over a recent period of time are more likely to be profitable to follow than horses which have led less frequently. The same can be said for horses with higher run style averages.

The million dollar question, however, is how many races should we use? The four currently published in the 'pace' tab on the Geegeez racecard is a great starting point. We know from earlier research that horses which led at least once very recently are more likely to lead early than horses that have not. Likewise a last-four-race run style average is useful too (also shown in the 'pace' tab under the column ‘Ave’). The higher the average, again, the more likely it is that a horse will lead.

In answer to the question, my best guess is that anything between four and a dozen races would be optimal. In this piece, for example, some horses had run style averages based on their last four runs, and some had an average based on a lot more than four runs. One could argue this is not perfect and I'd have some sympathy with that argument; but, for me, the time it takes for data collection is important.

Using this more flexible approach (a minimum of four runs) meant it took me less time to create all the data I needed to start writing the article. I shared nearly 150 individual horse run style averages earlier; in total I had to calculate nearly 6000. If I had tried to create ‘last eight runs averages’ for example for all horses I probably would still be trying to do that at Christmas, and probably Christmas 2025! Research is just that, research. It will never be perfect, but for me it is a fun way to learn more about racing and to help me share ideas with the wider geegeez.co.uk audience.

Thanks, as always, for reading.

- DR

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