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HorseRaceBase Review

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HorseRaceBase Review

HorseRaceBase.com Geegeez trial

For those of us who love tinkering with systems, there a few great sites out in interwebland, and HorseRaceBase.com might just be the best!

I've been using HorseRaceBase for about three months now. It should have been as many years, as that's when I first learnt about it from my friend, David Peat (of HorseProfiles.com fame). He was always raving about this great site where you could analyse anything and produce daily reports that took the grunt out of finding your system qualifiers.

As with many things in my life, I cotton on in my own good time, usually two or three years later! That's certainly the case with HorseRaceBase. Now I thought I'd show you rather than tell you how I use HorseRaceBase, and how you might like to as well.

There are a lot more features than those I highlight below, and the best way to learn about them is to play with them yourself. To that end, I've managed to secure Geegeez readers an exclusive SEVEN DAY trial, which is 133% longer than other visitors to HorseRaceBase get.

During that time you'll be free to use all of the functionality at HorseRaceBase without constraint, and see if it does anything that will be useful to you. If it does, then sign up there for a minimum donation of €7.50 (about £6.43 at this morning's conversion rate).

For the record, there's nothing in this for me except starting the new year with a dollop of goodwill, and sharing what I believe to be an excellent resource. It's like Adrian Massey on steroids!

Here's my short video on how I use HorseRaceBase, which I hope will give you some ideas (feel free to steal my trainer form settings!)

And here's the link where you can get the extended seven day trial for no cost, with no obligation. You don't even need to enter any payment details.

>>>GIVE ME A GRATIS TRIAL OF THE MAGNIFICENT HorseRaceBase PLEASE!<<<

If for any reason the link above doesn't work, type the following into your browser's address bar:

http://www.horseracebase.com/geegeez.php

How To Win The Placepot

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How to Bet (and Win) The Placepot

placepot

Winning The Placepot

Winning the placepot bet is a great feeling. Not only does the average placepot dividend amount to over £500, and frequently go into the thousands, but the feeling it produces when you 'have' it is incredible.

And in that feeling when you 'have' it is one of the biggest drawbacks of betting this kind of wager. I'll explain what I mean in a moment, but for now, let's quickly recap what the placepot is and how it works.

What is a Placepot?

A placepot is a pool bet operated by the tote, where the player is required to select a placed horse in six consecutive races (usually the first six on the card at any given meeting).

Place positions vary depending on number of runners and type of races, but typically we're trying to get a horse to finish first, second or third in each of the six races.

As I say, this is a pool bet, which means all of the money wagered is placed into a central betting pool, from which a deduction is made (28%) to cover admin but mostly to put money back into the sport.

The remaining 72% of money in the pool is divided equally between the number of winning players. So, for instance, suppose the pool of money was £100,000, and there were 72 winning tickets.

The dividend (always declared to a £1 unit stake, though players can play multiples of as little as 5p) would be calculated as follows:

£100,000 - 28% /72 (because of the 28% deduction and the fact that we have 72 winners in this example).

In other words, £100,000 - £28,000 / 72 = £72,000 / 72 = £1,000

So the dividend in this case is £1,000. Make sense so far? Good!

Now of course you might only 'have' 20p of it, or you might have £12 of it, depending on how you staked your bet.

Alternatively, you might very well have none of it, depending on how you picked horses in your bet! 😉

So that's what a placepot is: a six leg place wager where you get back a return based on how many of your fellow placepot wagerers also correctly selected six placed horses.

How to pick your horses in a placepot

This is one of two places I think a lot of people make mistakes when betting the placepot. Sometimes people - and I've been guilty of this many times myself - try to be too 'cute' in their selections.

They might put in the long odds on favourite, and also a 16/1 who they quite like, just in case.

There's nothing wrong with that per se, but... it is clear that there is far more likelihood of the 2/5 favourite placing than the 16/1 chance. So it must be equally clear that both horses ought to be 'weighted' differently in the bet. That people don't do this is almost certainly THE most common mistake in placepot (and jackpot and scoop6 and exacta and tricast) betting. More on that in a moment.

So, back to how to pick horses for a placepot. Obviously, we're picking horses that we need to place. This may mean that we actually select horses differently from the one we might pick to win the race.

Many horses have form figures like '4011816'. In other words, they either win or run nowhere if things don't go their way. If I was playing a jackpot (I never do, though I love the US Pick 3, a more achievable mini-jackpot), I'd definitely have this horse in the mix.

But in a placepot, I'd think twice, because he's as likely to finish nowhere as he is to place, and there may be more reliable place wagers.

A good example of this is in the 1.15 race at Cheltenham today (12th November 2010), where Theatrical Moment has form figures of 44116P-

He has two wins to his name, but they were sandwiched in between a number of unplaced performances. (Clearly, there is a lot more to the selection process than that, but these horses take an inappropriate amount of the pool money quite frequently).

The other problem with contrarian views - or trying to beat the odds on favourite out of the frame - is that generally you'll be wrong. But you don't want to miss out on the relatively rare occasions that you're right! So, what to do?

Well, Steven Crist in his excellent book 'Exotic Betting', has a solution to this problem. [Exotic bets are what these type of wagers are referred to in the US, and they take FAR more of the money bet than straight win, and place bets.]

Crist suggests you break the horses down in each race, according to how likely you think they are to get the required placing. He talks of dividing them into four categories:

A - horses you feel have a very high chance of being placed
B - horses you feel have a reasonable chance of being placed, and who represent value (i.e. who might be 'dark' horses)
C - horses who might just enjoy a revival today based on some element (course, distance, going, jockey, etc) coming in its favour, and who represent value (i.e. who might be 'dark' horses)
X - horses who either have no chance, or are terrible value to place at their expected odds, or on whom you have no strong opinion

As you can see, these gradings take into account two elements: your ability to read a race (reflected in terms of what you like) and the market's relative ability to read a race (reflected in terms of where you see value horses, or under-priced horses)

By breaking each race down like this, you might end up with a chart as per the below. (This example assumes six nine-horse races).

------ A                     B                            C                             X

1   3,4                                                  1,8                    2,5,6,7,9

2   1                        4,6                                               2,3,5,7,8,9

3  2,3                     9                            5,7                    1,4,6,8

4  1,3,6,7                                              2                      4,5,8,9

5   8,9                                                                          1,2,3,4,5,6,7

6   6                      4,7                                                   1,2,3,5,8,9

How to bet your horses in a placepot

The good news is we've managed to discard many of the runners in most of the races. The bad news is that if we tried to perm all the runners in our A, B and C lists, we'd still end up with 4 x 3 x 5 x 5 x 2 x 3 = 1800 lines.

Even if we did just 10p per line, that comes to £180 and, more worryingly still, we'd need some luck to get big priced horses hit all place positions in one, and possibly two races at least in order to get back more than the £180 we'd invested.

But, by weighting our opinions according to our perception of the likelihood of those horses making the frame, we can bet the horses in a commensurately weighted fashion.

In other words, if we can't get at least four of our A horses in the frame, we don't really deserve to win the bet, because we don't have a strong enough and / or smart enough opinion of the sextet of contests that form the placepot that day. Besides, getting four out of six on the placepot is easy, right?! 😉

So, if we accept that we should have at least four of our A-team selections come in, then we can write out multiple tickets where we'll collect if any of the following scenarios occur:

- A in all six races
- A in five races, and a B or C in the other
- A in four races, and B in the other two

This gives us lines that look like this, from our example above:

AAAAAA             2x1x2x4x2x1 = 32 bets
ABAAAA             2x2x2x4x2x1 = 64 bets
AABAAA            2x1x1x4x2x1 = 16 bets
AAAAAB            2x1x2x4x2x2 = 64 bets
CAAAAA            2x1x2x4x2x1 = 32 bets
AACAAA            2x1x2x4x2x1 = 32 bets
AAACAA            2x1x2x1x2x1 = 8 bets
ABBAAA            2x2x1x4x2x1 = 32 bets
ABAAAB            2x2x2x4x2x2 = 128 bets
AABAAB           2x1x1x4x2x2 = 32 bets

So we now have ten different placepot perms we're going to strike, and we could stake them differently as well. In this case, for simplicity, we won't bother to do that.

The total number of lines comes down to just 440, or less than a quarter of the initial number of plays for 'full coverage'.

We have lots of chances to win and, because it's a placepot bet where we can get more than one horse placed, we still have lots of chances to double - or even triple - up.

So, our previous 1800 x 10p bet, which would cost us £180, can now be re-struck at a cost of just £44 (440 x 10p), or we could 'go large' and play 40p lines for £176 - still four quid cheaper than the initial permutation.

In order to exemplify this further, I am (stupidly) going to attempt this on today's Cheltenham placepot... Drum roll...

------A ------------------------  B--------------------  C----------------------  X

1- 4,6,9-------------------  3,10--------------------------------------  1,2,5,7,8,11,12

2- 2------------------------  1,4 -----------------------------------------  3,5,6,7,8

3-  1-----------------------  4,7 -------------------  2,6-----------------  3,5,8,9,11,12

4- 1,5------------------------------------------------------------------  2,3,4,6,7,8,9,10

5-  11,12,17,21----------  9,18------------------------------------------  THE REST

6-  7,8--------------------  3,6-----------------------------------------  1,2,4,5,9,10

Again, we have to get four A's at least for a score. Just eight tickets this time, as follows:

AAAAAA  3 x 1 x 1 x 2 x 4 x 2 = 48 bets
AABAAA  3 x 1 x 2 x 2 x 4 x 2 = 96 bets
AAAAAB  3 x 1 x 1 x 2 x 4 x 2 = 48 bets
CAAAAA  2 x 1 x 1 x 2 x 4 x 2 = 32 bets
ACAAAA  3 x 2 x 1 x 2 x 4 x 2 = 96 bets
AACAAA  3 x 1 x 2 x 2 x 4 x 2 = 96 bets
AAAACA  3 x 1 x 1 x 2 x 2 x 2 = 24 bets
AABAAB  3 x 1 x 2 x 2 x 4 x 2 = 96 bets

The total is simply perming all A, B and C selections would be a whopping 5 x 3 x 5 x 2 x 6 x 4 = 3,600 lines. Even for ten pence a line, that's a scarcely affordable £360 which is a lot of money to recoup even if you 'have' the placepot at the end of the day.

Granted it is still not the most affordable of placepot bets even with the 'four A's' rule in play. But at least we've managed to massage that figure down to a more palatable (and affordable) 536 lines which, at the aforementioned 10p a turn, is £53.60. That's just under 15% of our full coverage, and we have very good chances of getting through at least the second and last races.

Initially, I played one each in the B and C slots in the cross country race, but it's VERY hard to envisage both Garde Champetre and Sizing Australia being out of the first three. So I've used that as the banker play in the ticket.

I have placed these bets this afternoon, so we'll see how it goes!

Cheltenham Placepot

The eight tickets for my Cheltenham Placepot

And that, dear reader, is how to play the placepot. 🙂

Matt

p.s. if you have any clever ways of whittling the number of perms down, do please leave a comment...

What Exactly Are The Secrets of Successful Gamblers?

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It’s a dream for millions of punters up and down the country: to become part of the one percent or thereabouts of betting people who can call themselves successful gamblers. Those whose profession is betting horses, football, tennis, whatever…

But what separates these pro’s from the rest? What special talents do they have which mere mortal bettors don’t?

Well, the answer, in short, comes down to two things: mindset and method. When people start betting, or – more accurately – gambling, they generally have neither of these attributes.

I very well remember when I started betting on the football, over twenty years ago now. I used to pick up the fixed odds coupon, and look for seven or eight home wins. SEVEN or EIGHT! When I look back, I realize how preposterous that was (you’re not putting seven teams in your weekend acc’ers, are you?!!).

The basic premise is that there are three outcomes for every game – home win, away win, or draw – and a reasonable rule of thumb is that for every additional short-priced team you put in, you double the chance of failure.

So, if you have three teams, your chance of success is roughly one in eight, or around 7/1.

If you have five teams, 30/1; seven teams equates to approximately 120/1. And this is if you’re betting teams at odds of around 4/6!

The mindset of the successful gambler is all about discipline and expectation management and damage limitation. Every event you bet on gives you another opportunity to lose money. So, it follows that the less matches you put in your accumulator bet, the higher the chance that you a) get your stake money back, and b) get a return on your investment.

It is simply the flawed maths of a novice to believe that you can catch a windfall by betting twelve teams in a bet. Sorry if this comes as a shock to you (I know it won’t to many, and I hope it’s a wakeup call to a few), but mindset is massive.

Discipline, expectation management, damage limitation. For professional punters, that is something of a mantra which they chant subconsciously, and which underscores the majority of their successful wagering.

Of course, they have one other thing in their gambling arsenal, which sets them apart from almost all of their peers, and that is an effective method. Or several effective methods. If you have the mindset but you don’t have the method, you will just go skint in a very orderly and measured way! Death by a thousand self-inflicted cuts.

Some of the methods I personally use are systems-based, and some are simply rules of thumb that I employ when sizing up a card. Most of this is so ingrained that it is in my subconscious and, as such, it’s hard to explain.

But, as an example, when I look at a race card, depending on the track, I’ll put more emphasis on things such as course form (e.g. at Southwell, Fakenham, and Cartmel). Often my start point is looking at the strength of the race favourite: do I think it’s a weak or a strong jolly? Should I be with it or against it? Normally I’m looking for reasons to be against it.

Things I’d look for are whether the trainer or jockey’s horses are typically overbet; if the horse has yet to win in the class of race (especially if it’s tried and failed previously); what the stable form is like currently.

Much of this is instinctive to me, refined gradually – and usually through the experience of numerous losing wagers – over time. But it is not just losing wagers that have informed my betting. You see, I am a voracious reader on betting and the science (that’s a rather grandiose term for what is at best pseudo-science) behind it.

This generally boils down to so much contrarian thinking. In other words, how do I get ‘value’ (ah yes, that elusive concept) by opposing the vox populi view. It is OK to be correct just 10% of the time, so long as a) you have a deep betting bank, and b) you are rewarded at odds of 11/1 or more!

If you want to be a better bettor, then you should read on the subject. Read my blog, for sure. And I hope you find some value here. Read the likes of Potts and Mordin. Read some of the US authors, like Beyer and Davidowitz. And you might also read a part-work that was sent to me recently called, Secrets of Successful Gambling. I’m going to call it SSG for short, and for obvious digit-drain-related reasons.

SSG is one of those ‘does what it says on the tin’ sort of things. Somewhat unusually for our little online microcosm, SSG is a printed newsletter. It comes through your letterbox, with a stamp on it. And it’s not a bill, and it’s not junk mail. How novel! 😉

It is a monthly series, which is – as I said – sent to your home for you to chew on (or just read if you prefer) at your leisure. And, best of all, you get to try it out for… no charge. Marvelous! Ok, before I send you to the ‘grab the freebie’ page, let me just run through some small print so you know exactly where you are.

I think if you’re new to betting (or relatively new), you’ll definitely get value from issue one. If you’re longer in the punting tooth, you might enjoy the first issue and you should check out issue two as well.

There is plenty of meat in each issue, and lots of new angles to take at face value or work into your own betting patterns (the real value in almost any system or methodology is finding a way to weave it into the fabric of your existing betting knowledge, experience and practices).

And it's written in a clear and digestible format, with loads of little take-aways to apply to your betting straightaway.

The first issue will be sent to you free and, only if you decide to stay on board, you will be sent further issues at a cost of £29.75 per month. And don’t worry about any catches because there are none.

If you sign up, you’ll do it either through PayPal or direct debit. In both cases, you control the mandate and decide when to cancel. No problem. If you forget to cancel, or you simply don’t like the content of an issue, send it back and Mike (top man, by the way, whose company publish this letter) will see to it that you get a full refund. No if’s or but’s.

It’s a straight up service that aims to teach the twin towers of any successful gambler: mindset and method. And you can try it for free, here: www.ssg2.co.uk/p10

Geegeez Reader Wins £30,906… for a £3 Bet!

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Well what a weekend that was, dear reader, for some people more than others. One lucky Geegeez reader posted a comment Saturday night to say that he'd had the best betting day of his life. He collected £30,906 for just a £3 bet!

Of course, I couldn't let that pass without asking him if he'd share how he did it, and Peter was gracious enough to say yes.

First, here's the comment from the blog:

Hi Matt, you wished me a good weekend in your e-mail and I’ve just had the best days racing of my life on Saturday at Cheltenham. I did a £3 treble on baccalaureate 100-1 , hey big spender 5-1 and taranis 16-1 which gave me £30,906. It’s a day which will live long in my memory. Isn’t it wonderful when everything goes right for once.
Best wishes Pete.

A £3 treble with a 100-1 shot, a 5-1 and a 16-1, all of whom cruised to the front when winning their races, must have been sweeter than sweet. I mean, when did you ever see a 100-1 shot amble to the front? At Cheltenham! (I know, Norton's Coin...)

When I asked where the inspiration for this turbo-charged treble came from, Peter replied:

Hi Matt,

As to my picking method, I've noticed for some time that novice hurdles tend to throw up unexpected results, and pistolet noir was carrying a penalty which put me off of him. I had noticed that baccalaureate had run well on the flat in France and I had backed it twice before, so I wasn't going to miss it out of my bets. The price of 100-1 was crazy on it's flat form.

I picked hey big spender, ( very apt name don't you think) by reasoning that with soft ground at Cheltenham it was better if a horse had run over furthur than the race trip of 2m 5f, and he had run over 3m 1f last time out.

Taranis was the easiest horse to pick because it's a bad race for favourites and Taranis had won first time out for 4 seasons in a row.

I doubt that my picking will hit the mark as well again for a long time but I will never forget Taranis cruising home over the final fence.

Best wishes from Pete

Be lucky.

PS. I'm getting a copy of my bet framed so I can hang it on my wall.

********

Wow! You've got to salute a man who says that the 16/1 shot was the easiest horse to pick! Seriously, I'm sure all Geegeez readers will join me in a hearty congratulations for what was a truly epic wager. (And if you fancy emailing me a picture of the betting slip, that'd be great! 😉 )

********

Catching our breath and moving on, what did the weekend's racing action tell us (aside from who the champion tipster is)?

Well, the action at Cheltenham was entitled 'Festival Trials Day', so we were looking for a few clues for the March puntathon. And we got them too.

Firstly, I was also pleased when Baccalaureate lowered the colours of the supposed Nicholls first string for the Triumph Hurdle. Why? Because on the blog here on Friday I'd advised, erm, Advisor for the race at 16-1. He's now down to 14's generally and as low as 12's in places. And, importantly, he'll probably be the choice of Ruby Walsh.

There appeared to be no fluke about the win of Baccalaureate, though the ground may have favoured him over Pistolet Noir, and it's unlikely to be as soft in March.

Hey Big Spender dotted up in the handicap chase and definitely appreciated the cut. Again, he may be less effective when the hooves hit the harder stuff in six weeks time. But for now, he's definitely one to keep on the right side of. Keep in mind that he's a novice and is entered in the RSA Chase. However, a more likely target would be one of the staying handicap chases (for novices or not). The Big Spender has wins at Cheltenham and Newbury to his name, so he clearly has a touch of class about him, and his trainer - Colin Tizzard - is nobody's mug.

The Sawyer broke a couple of key trends to win for the second year in a row in the Betfair Handicap Chase. He loves Cheltenham and will have peeved the handicapper somewhat by doubling up after last weekend's betting coup. Expect things to get tougher for this chap now. In behind, Mister McGoldrick ran another supremely gallant race from the front. He won at a fat price at the Festival last year and, though he's now a 13 year old with 83 runs under his belt (!), he still looks to love the game and may reward a place bet at a decent price.

In the big race, the Argento Chase (formerly the Cotswold Chase), Paul Nicholls vindicated his decision not to bring Denman here, as his second string in the race, Taranis, blew away the cobwebs of a two year absence with a very classy victory and, in doing so, made one reader extremely happy. (I can only imagine how you must have been feeling Peter, when Taranis cruised alongside Carruthers, your horse hard held, Mattie Bachelor's shoved along...!)

It can sometimes be the case that horses returning for their second start after a long lay-off fail to reproduce the level of form of their first run but, if Taranis could repeat that performance, he might just give his two eminent stable seniors a race. A lot of if's in the above, which is why he's still 33/1 with William Hill. But, in the betting without the first two market (a great market that gives you down to fifth place, if both Denman and Kauto do what they can do), he's an 8/1 shot, which might be tempting.

Personally, I'm sticking with Albertas Run in the 'without the first two' market, at around 25/1 (quarter the odds a place).

Carruthers ran a bold race and had all the rest bar the resurgent veteran Joe Lively beaten off, but it might be that this wasn't the strongest Festival trial.

In the staying novices' hurdle on the other hand, Restless Harry quickened away from them in the style of a very nice horse. It's obviously not going to be easy to dominate a field in the Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle at the Festival, but he'll give them all something to aim at if they're good enough.

By winning this contest in the style of a very able runner, he paid a handsome compliment to his Newbury vanquisher, Reve de Sivola, and I immediately snapped up the 11's available on Betfair about de Sivola winning the Baring Bingham / Neptune at the Festival. Immediately, that is, prior to him drifting back out to his current 14 on that exchange!

The Cleeve Hurdle was still to come, and this looked a good opportunity for a number of animals to book a return ticket to Cleeve Hill for the World Hurdle. As it turned out, it was a Festival favourite, Tidal Bay, who turned back his own recent tide of under-performing to win handsomely from the improving Time For Rupert and the tough, but maybe now a little limited, Katchit.

Any doubts about whether Tidal Bay would run in the Ryanair or Queen Mother Champion Chase were dispelled, as it now looks long odds on that he'll be taking on Big Buck's et al for the Stayers' crown. Considering Big Buck's himself and Inglis Drever mopped up this event en route to their World Hurdle crowns, and knowing TB's affection for Cheltenham (never out of the first four in eight starts, including four wins and two seconds), he's a definite contender in a race that lacks depth.

In the last race Aather should have won, and may well do next time, if produced later and by a more aggressive pilot.

********

Over the pond, there were a couple of Grade 2's at Punchestown, and THE trial for the Cross-country race at the Festival. The last mentioned, the PP Hogan Memorial, produced a real shock as Enda Bolger failed to win! In fact, the best of Bolger's quintet of runners could manage only sixth of the seven to complete (another seven failed to pass the post).

Take nothing away from the winner, Another Jewel, who is an up and coming sort but this looked a moderate renewal, and whether it can retain its stranglehold on providing the Cross Country winner at the Festival must be in more doubt than is usually the case.

Next up for Punchy punters was the Tied Cottage Chase, a Grade 2, featuring a match between Big Zeb and up-and-coming Golden Silver. I'd backed Zeb, fully expecting him to boss these slightly below top grade sorts, and - for once - I was proved spot on.

I've always felt that the Zeb is a bit of a choker in top class. His jumping seems to go to pot in the best races and, as here, he is much more fluent against anything below Grade 1 company. Funnily enough, he strikes me as the sort who might make a very dark horse for a race like the Champion Hurdle, but I'll probably never see that.

Golden Silver stuck to his task well, having been properly outpaced by the winner heading down the back straight and turning in. Whilst he wasn't getting any closer at the finish, he probably recorded a slight reduction on his previous level of form.

The big race from my perspective was the Grade 2 Moscow Flyer Novice Hurdle, which featured a rematch between Hollo Ladies, Saludos and Luska Lad, the 1-2-4 from the Grade 1 Future Champions Novice Hurdle over the Christmas holiday. As it transpired, they finished 1-2-4 again, only in the reverse order from that previous affair.

My money was on Saludos, not for yesterday's race but for the Supreme Novices Hurdle, the opener at the Cheltenham Festival in March. He again tried to run them off their feet, and he again found one too good. Despite jockey Robbie Power's protestations that he's "much happier going left-handed", I can't see me getting paid out on this ante-post voucher.

Oh well, I've still got Loosen My Load for that race!

The winner, Luska Lad, had looked relatively exposed, but is clearly better going right handed (funny how these horses improve or regress depending on which way round the clock face they race!), and the trainer doesn't think he'll run at Cheltenham, preferring - probably sensibly - to wait for the Punchestown Festival and a Grade 1 over course and distance.

********

So, for all those contending the weekend action, there was very little to really rattle the ante-post market cages. Perhaps the most notable exception would be Tidal Bay, who ran a stormer and - as I've said - I do believe that the places at least are there for the taking in the World Hurdle.

The Champion Chase looks like the race to play outsiders in, as the top three in the market are Master Minded (fractured rib when last seen); Twist Magic (can't jump, won't jump at Cheltenham); and, Big Zeb (capable but expected to fold like an origami black belt when put under pressure).

Given that sixth favourite Petit Robin's trainer (Nicky Henderson) has said the horse might well not run at the Festival, and that joint fourth favourite, Kalahari King, has yet to run this season (he's entered in the Blue Square Handicap Chase on Saturday), I make Forpadydeplasterer an each way banker. But then you knew that already, because I told you right here on the 21st December (http://www.geegeez.co.uk/3250/2010-queen-mother-champion-chase-preview-each-way-banker/ in case you missed it before).

********

The ante-post portfolio is actually looking pretty good at this stage (obviously, many armies have looked mightily impressive before the battle's begun!), and blog recommendations from here and horse-racing.ie are as follows (with prices from the time of writing):

Champion Hurdle

Most Likely Winner: Celestial Halo (8/1, general)

Best Each Way (nap): Punjabi (14/1, William Hill)

Best Long Shot (e/w): Go Native (33/1, general)

Gold Cup

Selection: Denman (9/4)

Best Each Way: Albertas Run (50/1)

Champion Chase

Most Likely Winner: Master Minded (7/4, no bet)

Best Each Way (nap): Forpadydeplasterer (10/1, most firms)

Best Long Shot (e/w): Petit Robin (33/1, Stan James, Ladbrokes)

World Hurdle

Selection: Big Buck’s (4/6)

Best Each Way: Karabak (10/1)

Best Outsider: Katchit (25/1)

Supreme Novices' Hurdle

Most Likely Winner: Dunguib (6/4, no bet)

Best Each Way (nap): Loosen My Load (25/1, vcbet, Stan James, Coral, William Hill)

Best Long Shot (e/w): Saludos (33/1, Boylesports)

Triumph Hurdle

Selection: Advisor (16/1, general)

Alternative: Mille Chief (15/2, sportingbet.com)

Speculative each way: Olofi (33/1, general)

As you can tell, I'm already frothing at the mouth about the Festival, and I'll be taking a look at a few more races over the next few weeks.

That's it for today though. I hope your weekend betting was, if not as amazing as Peter's 10,301/1 treble, still pretty darned good.

Best,

Matt

Betting System Scams: Avoiding Shark Infested Waters

/in /by

It seems, dear reader, that the previous rate of newly released wonder systems has upped in its tempo considerably in the last month or so. Maybe it's the start of a new year; maybe the growing number of 'silver bullet seekers'; maybe just an inflation of the scumbag peddlers. For whatever reason, there's never been more of a threat to us system buyers than now.

So, what should we do? Stop buying systems for fear of being ripped off? Just roll over and admit we have to run the gauntlet every time we click 'buy now'? Refund on nine out of ten systems we buy?

No. None of the above. We simply have to be diligent and sensible, and follow the advice below...

1. Before you buy a system, look for a review of it. Type 'xxxxx system review' into Google. And look for the sites where some / most systems get average or bad reviews. If a site gives everything a favourable comment, you know they're not for real.

2. Look for systems or services that offer a free trial. If there's a free trial, you have no risk. Note, it's acceptable for a system seller to ask for your details up front AS LONG AS no money is taken until the specified date. Use (relatively) trusted suppliers like PayPal and Moneybookers for this.

3. If your system or service offers a money-back guarantee, try to establish whether that will be honoured. If you bought any product through Clickbank, you can get a refund by sending your payment id to re*****@*******nk.com (A word of caution: if you habitually buy and then refund, you will get closed down by Clickbank, so do due diligence in advance and use this as a last resort).

4. Avoid systems that make ridiculous claims. Come on, be sensible! 😉 You and I both know that it IS possible to make a few quid and enjoy your punting more than losing a few quid. And... you and I both know that no fifty quid ebook (and, frankly, no two grand mega-service) is going to book you a one way ticket to Barbados. If it looks too good to be true...

5. Review the lists you've signed up to. You're most likely reading this because you've signed up to my list. Great! If you receive emails from people who you don't trust or in whose information you're not interested, click the 'unsubscribe' link at the bottom of the email. Seriously! Don't be lazy. They send you a note probably twice a week - just open it, click the link, and you'll get no more 5h1t from them! Simples.

6. When you find people whose information you trust, whitelist them. That is, make sure their emails go to your inbox and not your 'spammy junk blahblah' folder.

7. Er, that's it...

The above is of course absolute basic common sense. The trouble I have, and maybe you do too, is that because I receive so much carp on a daily basis, I find it difficult to make the time (like, thirty seconds!) to delete the extraneous hyperbole. Like the guy who's too busy working to make any money, I'm too busy deleting emails to unsubscribe.

Am I making any sense?!

So, here's my #1 tip for you. Go through all the emails you receive and unsubscribe yourself from any you don't trust (including me for that matter!)

You'll still get occasional unsolicited emails, and you'll still 'accidentally' sign up for new guff, but maintain a monthly regimen of spending five minutes (might be ten or even fifteen minutes the first time you do it, if you're on as many lists as me) unsubscribing from the rubbish.

It IS terrible that there are so many sharks looking to make a monkey out of us. But... we have to take some responsibility for ourselves. If they're emailing us, in the main, it's because WE signed up to them. So we need to un-sign up.

In the coming weeks, I'll compile a list of 'suspect characters'. This will be based on my personal opinion, and will not be a 'proven guilty' sentence for that person.

Have a great weekend, and I'll be back early next week with some important news on building your own systems. Now there's a way to guarantee you never get ripped off again!

Matt

Terms / Cookies / Privacy

/by

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More Betting Thoughts: What Trends To Look For In A Horse Racing System…

/in , /by

The cold continues, dear reader, ensuring my nose and throat are as full as my inbox currently. And it's directly to the inbox that we'll go, as promised yesterday, to answer publicly another reader's question.

Steve, from Tasmania no less (you devil!), wrote in to ask about systems research, specifically in relation to trainer patterns. His email is below, and my answer then follows:

From: Steve W
Sent: 18 December 2008 23:27
To: in**@**********co.uk
Subject: Geegeez Question

Hello there Matt,

Firstly - I hope you're feeling a bit better?? Nothing worse than being crook!

My name's Steve, and I'm in Tasmania - Australia.

I've been looking up your stuff and read some of your articles - excellent stuff!

To be brief:- I was hopeless in my 20's on the punt. I read some good stuff (good books), but had neither the capital nor the discipline to bet sensibly. I had a good long break from punting that did me the world of good.

Now, a bit older (33) and wiser(!) I'd like to make a fresh start. One of the things that always intrigued me was trainer stats. I have a couple questions, if you don't mind. I'm hoping you might swing me in the right direction with a bit of advice and guidance?

(a) Have you found any books particularly helpful? Been a long time since I've bought any.

(b) I intend to purchase a database of some sort for Austalian racing, so I should be able to have a look at some systems. I'm looking forward to that. Any advice there (other than, keep the rules logical?) I note with interest that you don't mind being track specific in your mechanical systems that you have posted in some of your old newsletters? Have you ever gone back to see how they've held up? Can a portfolio of systems approach win overall?

(c) Trainer stats! Where do I start?? lol Here is where I'm really hoping you might help me on my path. Obviously there's a lot of things one can look for. Are you able to guide me in what you've found to hold up over time? When I've had a cursory look, I've noted that stats between different trainers in broad categories just don't seem to hold up year to year (e.g. one year J Smith made a profit with first uppers, the next year you would have lost following them). In fact, so far, (albeit from a cursory look), the stat that seems to hold up strongly is that some trainers are very much overbet on there short priced horses. So - either lay them, or, the overbetting of them creates value in the race.

In the DRF form guide (for the USA) I noticed that they track the trainer patterns (switches) - things like blinkers on, big class changes etc. Is that the sort of thing you are looking for??

One thing I've noticed here in Australia, is that a trainer who has a really good strike rate at that particular track, do seem to win a good few races!!

So - I'm looking for advice really!

What type of stats to track

How to use those to bet! (i.e. does one still handicap the horse etc)

Finally - I'm interested in your answer if I were to ask you: "why do you fundamentally believe that your trainer stats method will continue to be an underbet (therefore profitable) method into the future?

If you've read this far - many thanks for your time! It's a big ask of a stranger, but I'm really hoping you might help me out here!

Blessings & merry christmas to you,

Steve

--------------

Hi Steve

Many thanks for your long email, and sorry for the delay in coming back to you. I’ve been under something of a deluge just recently! Still feeling rough, I’m sorry to report on the sickness front, which of course doesn’t help anything.

Regarding your questions

(a) I’m not sure if you’re referring to Australian racing (about which I have no knowledge!), or UK racing. If the latter, there are some excellent statistical compilations, such as Raceform’s ‘Trainer Jump Statistics 2007-8’ (ISBN 978-1-905153-78-7), in which you may find some lucrative lesser known trainers with profitable sub-trends.

There is also a flat racing version of this book, called ‘Trainers Flat Statistics’, ISBN (978-1905153749).

Both of these are available from Amazon, and all good sports book resellers.

I do of course produce my own jumps statistical guide, called ‘TrainerTrackStats’, which you can get from www.trainertrackstats.com. I’ve produced this in conjunction with Gavin Priestley this season, and it continues to show a profit as it has done in every previous season we’ve produced it.

(b) and (c) Regarding what sorts of parameters to look for when researching a system, if the system is based on trainer patterns, then it logically follows that you should consider possible differences in the way trainers train. Taking that a step further, I mean that here in the UK, some trainers are more effective with horses run over shorter trips or on sharper, i.e. less stamina sapping courses. Some perform best when there is a real slog.

For instance, Nigel Twiston-Davies has the following record over the last four seasons (14/1 odds or shorter):

2m races 68 wins from 332 runs (20.48% strike rate) Loss of 34.62 points

2m1f – 3m 145 wins from 781 runs (18.57% strike rate) Loss of 40.22 points

Over 3m 48 wins from 236 runs (20.34% strike rate) Profit of 56.58 points

Although the strike rate remains consistent, the profit emerges only in races with more of an emphasis on endurance. (Incidentally, this implies that his horses are overbet at shorter distances, and underbet at longer distances.

Taking another example, let’s look at Alan King’s record over the same period:

2m races 128 wins from 571 runs (22.42% strike rate) Loss of 62.31 points

2m1f – 3m 184 wins from 870 runs (21.15% strike rate) Profit of 47.27 points

Over 3m 30 wins from 146 runs (20.55% strike rate) Profit of 22.31 points

Although on the face of it, it appears that we should back King’s runners at anything beyond the minimum trip, slightly deeper research reveals that for trips beyond 3m, you would have lost in three of the four seasons in questions, and a couple of big priced winners in 2006/7 season have skewed the stats somewhat.

Trainers may also train horses for chases rather than fences, or vice versa (or even for bumper / flat races).
Consider the following over the last four seasons:

Alan Swinbank (3 and 4 year old horses)

Hurdles 3 wins from 17 runs 17.65% strike rate

Bumpers 27 wins from 75 runs 36% strike rate

Nicky Henderson (all horses)

Chases 73 wins from 358 runs 20.38% strike rate

Hurdles 159 wins from 659 runs 24.13% strike rate

Bumpers 51 wins from 159 runs 32.08% strike rate

Some trainers focus more on precocious early types (both the above are examples of this), whereas others tend to allow their horses more time to mature.

Some trainers focus on setting horses up for nice priced handicap wins, so the race type is another area to look at.

Some trainers see their horses perform on certain ground conditions (often, though not always, allied to whether they train horses for stamina or speed).

And all trainers go through good and bad runs – in some cases, this is ‘deliberate’ in so much as they train their horses en masse for certain key targets, such as the Cheltenham or Aintree festivals.

Although in the above examples I’ve tried to find positive indicators, do bear in mind that with all of these, you may well uncover strong negative patterns that can be used to handicap a race without a certain runner (or, of course, to lay the negative trend horses).

Finally Steve, in answer to your question about why I think TTS will continue to be underbet and therefore profitable to follow, this is simple. We don’t make fortunes and most of my customers are small players whose total cumulative investment measures more as a ripple than a splash in the great liquidity ocean that is Betfair (where virtually all TTS players wager).

In other words, TTS is not mainstream. Even though a few hundred people now use it, that’s as nothing to the tens of thousands who play on Betfair. And, moreover, when the average TTS punter stake is factored in against the average Betfair unit stake, again TTS is not hitting the pools hard. Of course, this may not last forever. But for now, I’m comfortable and confident that things will continue ‘as is’.

Hope this helps, and if you do find anything interesting in your Oz research, perhaps I can help you market your system (if that’s a route you’d like to take).

Best Regards,
Matt

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I will try to feature some of the more interesting letters on here going forwards, as this seems to be a popular feature in newspapers and magazines (I assume for their reader interest rather than just as filler - I hope you don't consider the above to be the latter!).

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Onto Project Betfair, and after a no bets day yesterday, today's runners are:

Hereford
2.10 Six Day War

Ok, so that should have been today's runner is... but no matter.

********

Finally, although its only Monday, I heard a great joke yesterday from my old friends Ronnie and Ronnie (Barker and Corbett, lest you're not following), in the 'And here is the news' section of their timeless, peerless Christmas Special of many moons ago:

A woman from Worcester was seen covering her horse with lettuce and tomato yesterday. When asked what she was doing, she replied that she wanted to ride side salad... Boom, boom!

It may just be me, but I thought that was brilliant.

Until tomorrow,
Matt

These Three D’s WILL Make You A Better Bettor!

/in /by

Sometimes, dear reader, it is healthy to pause and reflect on recent happenings, and to take stock of the current status quo. For all that was as it was may not now be as it is... Forgive the riddle, and let me explain.

Having put up a couple of confident draw bias-based selections this week, and seen the converse effect occur I am reminded that, although the past is far and away the best means of gauging the future, it is quantum distances away from being a bulletproof barometer.

The fact that Warwick 6f sprints have almost unfailingly been won by low drawn horses, until two days ago; and, that Newcastle mud sprints nearly always fall to low drawn runners, until yesterday; leaves me pondering...

What do these events actually mean? I mean, in material terms, as opposed to me (and probably some of you - sorry) dropping a few quid on the races in question. Do these events mark a transition? Have the previously reliable track preferences become more akin to a lottery?

The short answer is: no, probably... In reality, there are often temporary changes in the favoured part of tracks, and the reasons for these may well be unpublicised.

For instance, the movement of the running rail can not only affect the race distance, but also the fact that a fresh strip of ground is made available can influence the pilots to go in search of it.

Or what about the unseasonal amount of rain we've had this summer? On the surface, both literally and metaphorically, that just means that the ground is heavy. But what exactly do those preposterously antiquated going descriptions impart to the punter, in terms of meaningful information?

Let me exemplify: at the Cheltenham Festival in 2000, the official going was described as Good. There had been no rain for weeks in the run up to mid-March, and the chalk hills of which Cleeve Hill (the home of Cheltenham racecourse) is one have a famously porous ability to absorb water in the soil. Indeed, the water table there pretty much guarantees to deal with excess precipitation with the minimum of fuss.

'Genuine' (and I use the term lightly) good ground for jumping horses means they make a fair print in the turf, and it is a good test for a horse tape to line.

But on that first day, 14th March 2000, on good ground, no fewer than FOUR of the six races were won in course record time. HOW is it possible to run faster than any other race on the track ever in middling ground?

The answer of course is that the real going was at best Good to Firm, and more likely Firm to Tarmac.

It is entirely in the domain of the clerk of the course to determine the going description. Some of them use a penetrometer, little more than an electronic broom handle, which at least adds a degree of plausibility to the description.

My point is that the evidence of the clock and your eyes should be used over any 'official' statement from the track. Those that spotted this outright lie early on, and backed light framed horses with fast ground form, cashed in at Chelters in the millennium. In fact, generally, that's a pretty good route to the payout window at the big Festival, as it definitely favours agile nags.

Back to my core point: transient influences that upset the established equilibrium. Other issues that can lead to apparent taciturn results include the jockeys' cartel. Jockeys, bless them, are very talented horsemen in the main (or should that be in the mane?). They are not normally paid for their judgment of pace or of where the best ground is, but rather for being able to ride a race to the finishing line.

So it is that a few influential figures can decide where the horses will travel on a course. I suspect this is what happened at Warwick on Tuesday, when they all tacked across to the stands rail for some reason, presumably in search of better ground.

Another imponderable from Warwick was that there was a fierce tailwind. I have no idea 'how' it affected the outcome, but I'm sure it had a bearing.

Does that mean the draw bias is dead at Warwick? No, without doubt. Does it mean caution should be exercised the next time they race there? Yes, without doubt!

The same applies at Newcastle. Or anywhere else when tradition has been usurped by a temporary impostor. Sometimes, the impostor takes residence and becomes the new law. Usually, it doesn't. Either way, it pays to be aware of what's happening and flexible enough to respond before the masses.

One swallow doesn't make a summer, nor does one adverse call destroy a trend. At this time of year, it's prudent to start focusing on the jumps anyway, as most horses have been on the go for a long time and are ready for a rest.

Which brings me - finally - to the three D's that will make you a better bettor. The 'savoir faire' amongst you will have worked this out by now.

The three D's are: discipline, Discipline, and DISCIPLINE.

So here are three things I urge you to consider, which may not win you any more, but will certainly stop you losing some:

- Choose one day in the week and don't bet that day (for me its Mondays)

- Don't have more than two bets a week on a horse priced at 20/1 or more, unless there is a very good reason for doing so (the true chance of a horse priced 20/1 or more winning the race is more like double that price)

- Don't do a multiple bet with more than three selections in it (i.e. yes to a trixie, or even a patent at a push, no no no to a yankee, heinz or lucky 31/63/94235!)

And here's my rationale for the above:

If you can't take a day off, you should take a year off, because you're addicted. That is clearly not good, and it means you will lose money. Possibly a lot. Stop, have a rest, think about something else for a day.

If you back long priced horses habitually, you are dreaming of the big payday. You are not prepared to chip away with small victories constituting fractional progress to a major triumph (i.e. getting level or even in front against the bookies / betfair).

You will know from my tipping that I like to tilt at windmills from time to time, but I only throw in a speculative longshot when there is evidence to support the prospect of a good run. And, even there, almost always I'll have nominated a shorter priced, 'more likely' winner.

And on the third point, it is a long time since I have done any kind of multiple bet. I used to be addicted to them. They are the most colourful betting slips in the shop, and the bookies love Love LOVE (the three L's!) them. Do you know why?

Consider this: you've just placed your 50p lucky 31 (oh, the irony of the name). The bet consists of five selections across 5 singles, 10 doubles, 10 trebles, 5 fourfolds and an accumulator. Total cost to you is £15.50.

Your first horse, a live 4/1 shot finishes an unlucky head second.

Even though only one of your five horses has run, your bet has just lost 1 single, 4 doubles, 6 trebles, 4 fourfolds and the accumulator.

In other words, SIXTEEN of your 31 bets have lost after your first losing selection. If the second (or third) also loses, you are down to a patent (i.e. seven bets in 3 singles, 3 doubles and 1 treble).

These bets are terrible value: that's why good old Fred at Betfred is able to offer (apparently) huge bonuses. He's no mug - in fact, he's the most aggressive bookie on the high street these days, and is to be applauded for that.

But he's certainly not a charity case either. If you must bet these things, either learn not to, or do it with Fred.

These are some of my universal negatives (i.e. things I try to never do), and if you are serious about trying to come out in front, then you need to either copy these or find your own rules.

Break them if you want, but know that you will be further from winning status as a result.

I couldn't find anything to back today, and so I have no advice on today's racing. What's the use of me putting up a selection or two, if I don't really fancy them? Maybe tomorrow we'll find something to play...

Until next time,
Matt

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