Racing Insights, Friday 28/01/22

Do you like to back horses with a proven record at the track they're next running on? If so, then the Horses For Courses (H4C) report is just the ticket!

It shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track and is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion. As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

And what's more, it's FREE to ALL readers EVERY Friday!

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

Here's what my settings for the H4C have generated for Friday...

In addition to this report, we also offer the following as our FREE 'races of the day'...

  • 1.15 Doncaster
  • 4.10 Huntingdon
  • 5.15 Wolverhampton
  • 6.30 Dundalk
  • 7.15 Wolverhampton

Golden Force is clearly an interesting runner with a form line at Wolverhampton reading 13132, but all his form is over 8.5f rather than Friday's 7f and he's scheduled to bump into my winner from last Saturday, Tadleel, so I'll serve that and take a look at the first of the 'free' races, which is the highest rated of the five.

The 1.10 Doncaster is a 7-runner, Class 2, 5yo+ Handicap Chase taking on 12 fences over a left-handed 2m½f on Good (softer in places) ground, where one of these will take home the sum of £20,812...

None of the seven come here in top form, but all bar The Big Bite and Gold des Bois have won at least one of their last five outings and the latter has rattled the crossbar in four of his last five, whilst the former looks the weakest here based purely on results. He is however the only one of the seven to have won here previously (over 2m4½f), but all seven have won at similar trips to today. The top two in the weights, Funambule Sivola and Before Midnight step down from Class 1 (Gr3 and Gr2 respectively) action LTO, whilst Fransham's last run was at Class 3. The Big Bite and King D'Argent have been rested for seven and eight weeks respectively, but the other five have been seen in the past month. We've a clutch of in-form riders, whilst the trainers of Funambule Sivola and King D'Argent have been amongst the winners of late.

Funambule Sivola tops the weights off a mark of 152 and comes here after a 26 length defeat at Cheltenham in a Grade 3 chase on New Year's Day. His four runs prior to that defeat, however, saw him land back to back Class 2 handicaps and then back to back Class 1 (Gr1 then Gr2) runner-up positions, so it's highly possible that the poor effort at HQ was a one-off. The drop back in trip should help and trainer, jockey and trainer/jockey are in sparkling form...

Before Midnight was well beaten/outclassed when last home (20 lengths) of four at Kempton last time out. Mind you, that was the Grade 2 Desert Orchid Chase and was also his only defeat in five starts during 2021, after he won a Class 4 bumper and then 3 Class 2 handicaps. A return to that kind of form puts him right in the mix under a jockey in good nick and a yard with a good record over fences...

The Big Bite is 6 from 17 overall, which is decent, but he did win four of his first five starts and is just two from twelve in the last three years. Since taking a 198-day break after a 6th of 9 in a Grade 2 at Cheltenham last April, he has failed to complete either of his starts this season and with his yard having just 1 winner from 46 over the last seven months, you'd want to look elsewhere today.

King D'Argent represents Team Skelton who are, as they always seem to be, in good health and amongst the winners, but this is unlikely to be their latest success. A decent enough chaser, who finished 1F11 from December to March last season taking his mark from 114 to 144, is now in the handicapper's grip and was beaten by some 64 lengths at this class/trip at Newbury LTO. He has been eased 4lbs for his trouble, but I doubt that makes him competitive here.

Fransham had 5 wins and 3 places from 18 runs in a decent enough hurdles career and won at the second attempt over fences last November, but he unseated at Wetherby just after Christmas and was only third of four in a lower grade at the same track a fortnight ago, so he may well have stalled for now.

Moonlighter was a heavy ground winner at Sandown just under a year ago, but was subsequently pulled up in a pair of Class 1 outings either side of a 230-day absence. Since the latter of those Class1 runs, he has been 5th of 8 (14L) and 3rd of 7 (11L) in the last seven weeks, finding little late on in either despite a falling handicap mark. Another 3lb drop puts him 6lbs below his last win, so he's well weighted here, if struggling for form.

Gold Des Bois has won just twice in twenty starts and 1 from 7 over fences despite scoring on his chase debut at Ballinrobe last May. he did. however, finish as a runner-up four times on the bounce at Tramore (hurdles), Kelso, Carlisle and Musselburgh for which his mark rose from 119 to 130 without winning. he then unseated 2 out under pressure last time out and he's probably quite a bit too high in the weights, probably better off at Class 3.

Of the seven above, the ones currently making most appeal are the top two on the card dropping down from Class 1, Funambule Sivola and Before Midnight and their apparent superiority would appear to be reaffirmed via Instant Expert...

...where the only potential fly in the ointment that might stop them filling the frame is the fact that Funambule is carrying 11lbs more than his last win. That said, I think that if these two approach the race correctly, they should be head and shoulders above the other five. The approach suggested, here, is...

and with our field having recent pace scores of...

...it's not hard to envisage that my preferred duo being up with the pace.

Summary

Short and sweet today and it pretty much writes itself. Two horses (Funambule Sivola and Before Midnight) have stood out out all the way through the process and I think they finish in that order too. Whether you think they're good value at 7/4 and 11/4 is up to you, but the latter is certainly competitively priced. Of the others, only Fransham was of much E/W interest, but he would need to drift from his current 15/2 for me to even consider him and then his pace profile would probably still deter me.

Racing Insights, Thursday 27/01/22

The Instant Expert tab on our racecards offers the fastest route to check and compare an entire field's past form under given race conditions  (going, class, course, distance, field size etc etc) and is a quick way-in to see which horses might be best suited. It is by far, the most popular tab on our racecards and we're happy to make it freely available to ALL readers for ALL races every Thursday, including, of course, the daily 'free' races, which are set to be...

  • 12.50 Southwell
  • 2.05 Gowran Park
  • 3.35 Gowran Park
  • 5.00 Newcastle

...and the last of those four, the 5.00 Newcastle, appeals to me most. It's an 8-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ A/W (Tapeta) handicap over a straight mile...

Grangeclare View and Dubai Lady bring the best form to the table with a win and a runner-up finish in their last two outings, but all eight runners have won at least once in their most recent six outings. Cote D'Azur and War Defender both won six races ago, but they're in the worst form of this group right now.

Course specialist Broctune Red steps up a level, as does Dubai Lady and this sole female in the pack is also on handicap debut here. It's a second handicap run for Lightening Company, though and he drops down a grade. He's also the only one yet to win over today's trips, whilst Ulshaw Bridge, Dubai Lady, Plastic Paddy and Broctune Red have all achieved the feat here on this track.

None of these have been away from the track for too long or are turned back out too quickly, with Cote D'Azur's 58 days the longest lay-off and Broctune Red's fortnight the shortest rest period. From a trainer perspective, the eyecatcher is George Boughey (Dubai Lady) : his horses are running really well right now, he has a good record at this venue and also trained the winner of this race last year.

Under similar previous races to this one, courtesy of 'feature of the day' Instant Expert...

...Ulshaw Bridge has struggled. 1 from 8 on the A/W and 1 from 7 at Class 4 is poor. Grangeclare View has yet to win after 6 efforts on the A/W and Cote D'Azur's numbers are shocking. The ones I'd be most interested in if this was my only tool would be Dubai Lady, Plastic Paddy and Broctune Red. I know that War Defender's numbers aren't bad, but those two wins were in November 2020 and were preceded by ten straight defeats from debut and have been followed by five more losses.

As you'd expect over a straight mile on an artificial surface, there's no massive draw bias at play here...

...and I'd probably say the lower success rates from stalls 5 and 7 are just coincidental. Stall 6 does well enough nd 30 runners drawn higher than 7 have a win/place strike rate comparable to those drawn lowest. Pace and/or race tactics, however , are a different kettle of fish and those electing to set the fractions only win around 80% as often as you'd expect, with prominence being the best racing position : stalk the leader(s) and pounce late. Hold-up horses have also fared admirably here, almost achieving par scores, but as you can see, sitting handy is the ideal approach...

And based on recent performances...

...the three of note from Instant Expert (Dubai Lady, Plastic Paddy and Broctune Red) all look set to be waited with for a late run. Ulshaw Bridge is likely to set the pace here, but I'd expect all the action to unfold late on in this one.

Summary

Dubai Lady is the form horse, her yard are in good nick and have a good record here. They also won this race last year and their filly won here over course and distance on debut just after Christmas. She's got an ideal pace profile and I'd expect trainer/jockey to have the tactics spot on. An opening handicap mark of 75 doesn't seem overly punitive and for me, she'd be the one to beat here.

The other pair from Instant Expert & the pace tab, Plastic Paddy and Broctune Red are very closely matched in my book.

Plastic Paddy was a course and distance winner here in back-to-back visits in September/October of last year, but has since laboured after being raised 6/7 lbs. However, today's jockey 7lb claimer Frederick Larson has been on board for his last two outings, effectively reducing his mark to the same as his last win and together they have made the frame on both occasions.

Plastic Paddy has actually finished 1162 in four starts on this track, but if you think that's good, Broctune Red has 5 wins and 4 further places from 14 course and distance efforts, including a run reading 2111 from around this time last year and off bottom weight here, a pound lower than his last win, can be expected to give another good account of himself.

Dubai Lady is the 9/4 favourite right now and that's possibly a little tight, but she does look like the one to beat. Plastic Paddy is a 4/1 shot, which is probably about right whilst I was hoping for a little more than 15/2 about Broctune Red. I do like his chances of a place, but I'm not a fan of dipping below 8's for E/W betting.

Racing Insights, Wednesday 26/01/22

The Trainer Statistics (TS) report is Wednesday's free Gold feature and it is, in fact, four reports in one. The report(s) contain(s) information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row of the TS report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

In addition to this excellent report, we also offer the following 'free' races of the day...

  • 1.30 Lingfield
  • 2.20 Wincanton
  • 4.00 Lingfield
  • 4.10 Catterick

My settings for the TS report...

have only generated the one possible from the course 1 year handicap report...

...and that same horse is my sole offering for course five year too.

Of the four free races, the chase at Wincanton is the best on paper (Class 3), but only four are set to run and the bookies say only two shorties have a chance, so we'll bypass that and take the last on the list, the 4.00 Lingfield which is a 7-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 6f on Standard Polytrack...

Top weight Bowling Russian looks the worst on form here, but he does drop in class to run here. Swiss Pride was unplaced in this grade last time out and the rest of the field are all stepping up from Class 5. Of those five class risers, Alablaq & Mobarhin both won last time out. Impeach won two starts ago and although bottom weight Deputise comes here on the back of successive runner-up finishes, he's one of four without a win in their last five outings.

All seven have won over today's trip and all bar El Hombre & Deputise have done it here at Lingfield. Bowling Russian hasn't raced for 21 weeks, but apart from Alablaq's 18-day rest, the rest have all raced in the last fortnight. The assessor suggests a tight race with the first six on the card only rated 6lbs apart.

Bowling Russian is in poor form (7769980), will probably need the run and I'm discounting him now.

I'm going to move quickly towards the draw stats, as the draw may well play an important role in a left handed 6f.

The general inference is that a higher draw is best and this is illustrated by a simple draw sector graph below...

...but stall-by-stall analysis says it's not quite that clear-cut. The linear chart above suggest high draws will win 1.5 times more often than low draws, but as shown below, stall 1 does as well as many others...

This doesn't mean that the draw has no effect of course, but that it's not as profound as we might have expected. I suspect we'll learn more from the tactics employed in such races and we have the pace stats to help us here...

...where leaders win most often and mid-division runners also do very well. Those racing prominently chasing the leaders win almost as often (IV 0.9) as you'd expect, but the takeaway here is that you don't want to be at the back of the field from either a win or place perspective. And when we align pace and draw, we get the following...

So, we're looking for leaders drawn either side of (but not in) the middle of the stalls and if we do get a mid-draw, the advice is to bide your time in mid-division. We have the draw given to us already on the card and as we log the running style of every horse in every race, here are how this field has approached their last four runs...

Impeach will lead from low, Swiss Pride seems to be the mid-division mid-draw horse and if we transfer that data to the heat map...

...you still wouldn't rule any out. This suggests a tight race (as the assessor thinks) and it may well come purely down to form and race suitability. Several of these are course and distance winners, so let's now turn to Instant Expert to see their overall records under expected conditions...

Over the last two years, Bowling Russian has the best figures, but hasn't actually won a race in 14 months, so the above needs to be taken in context. El Hombre, Impeach and Deputise look really poorly placed based on the above, especially on the going. El Hombre is particularly weak at going/class/distance, Impeach on going and Deputise on going/distance and I'm ruling those three out here.

Summary

So, without looking at the horses in depth, I'm down to just three runners. It's a 7-runner race, so I need to discard one more for the places. Alablaq & Mobarhin both won last time out, but step up in class, whilst Swiss Pride did run at this grade but was 8th of 9 over 7f on this very track. He also started 2021 with finishes of 312112 over course and distance, taking his mark from 68 to 79 and although winless in his last eight races, is still on a higher mark than his last win. That's a big negative for me, an out of form horse still needing a career best effort to win. And I think that's Swiss Pride out of the equation.

The fairly lightly raced 4 yr old Alablaq has been consistently there or thereabouts, bar one poor run at Wolverhampton last December in a sequence reading 22424731, finally getting off the mark here over course and distance 18 days ago. He's only up 2lbs for that win and should be on the premises once more. Mobarhin similarly got off the mark over course and distance here last time out, also on his eighth start, but his formline of 85566251 isn't anywhere near as impressive as that of Alablaq, but he certainly ran well her a fortnight ago to hold Deputise off by a comfortable half length.

I'd probably put the two LTO wins as being pretty equal in terms of performance and the fact that Mobarhin is up 3lbs rather than 2 might just be the difference between the two and as such, I'm leaning toward the 3/1 Alablaq to beat the 5/2 fav Mobarhin here.

 

Racing Insights, Tuesday 25/01/22

Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature is The Shortlist, a simple and usually brief report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day. It covers win or place stats, and can be viewed for both today’s and tomorrow’s racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation is, and has always been, that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form - and its odds - imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

And here's how Tuesday's Shortlist looks...

...with quite a few interesting runners. In addition to this report, we've our usual selection of 'free' races...

  • 1.10 Down Royal
  • 2.40 Down Royal
  • 3.00 Lingfield
  • 4.20 Leicester

One of the more interesting Shortlist horses runs in the last of the free races, so I'm going to take a quick look at Tuesday's 4.20 Leicester with half an eye on the chances of Mr Grey Sky in this 9-runner, soft (heavy in places) ground, Class 4, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a right handed 1m7½f...

In fairness, none of these are in any great form, but Made For You has at least won twice with one runner-up finish in his last five outings and only stablemate Tinnahalla has a win visible in the formline of the other eight runners. Lignou drops in class after a string of poor results, whilst old-timer (14 now and well past his best before date IMO) Applesandpierres is stepped up in class after finally completing a race last time out.

To be honest, I've interest in either class mover, Apples finished 00PUP prior to being beaten by 32 lengths LTO and now steps up in class? No thanks! As for Lignou : last of 8, 7th of 9 and 8th of 10 at an average margin of defeat of over 20 lengths, he'll need more than another drop in class. I've seen enough of these two already, I won't be backing either.

Shortlist horse, Mr Grey Sky is making a second appearance in a handicap, as is First Angel, but the latter certainly fared of the two on debut. Krypton Gold makes a handicap debut after just three previous NH efforts, where he ran well on debut eight weeks ago, but has been beaten by 24L and 18L in two runs since. He hasn't shown enough for me so far to be considered a winner here, even if his yard are going well right now.

Quiana also makes a second start in a handicap, but it has been 334 days since he last ran and he was only 6th of 7 on handicap debut. His yard are also in good form, but I suspect this one will need the run.

Stablemates Tinnahalla and Made For You along with Shortlist horse Mr Grey Sky hail from yards with a good record at this venue and the latter's jockey has performed well here too.

I didn't intend to eliminate so many runners from my considerations so early in the piece, but the more I looked at them, the less I liked some of the runners and I'm already at the point, where I won't be backing Lignou, Applesandpierres, Quiana and Krypton Gold for the reasons above, even if their Instant Expert stats below make me look foolish...

Of the discards, Applesandpierres is the one most likely to cause me embarrassment until you consider that our figures don't include French races and his last five runs in France saw him 14th of 16 on soft, 15th of 16 on soft, PU on heavy, UR on soft and then PU on soft, so his numbers really aren't as good as they first seem. Mr Grey Sky shows well, as you expect via The Shortlist as do the two Olly Murphy horses at the top of the card.

One of those Olly Murphy horses, Tinnahalla, looks like the one who'll be setting the pace here with old-timer Applesandpierres the probable back marker, based on their last four races...

and if I had to choose one of those before I'd seen the pace stats for this type of race, I think I'd want to be on a front runner, because I definitely don't want to be on Apples! Thankfully, thr pace stats for past similar races point to the pacesetters being the ones to follow...

and when we look at the average pace score of our runners...

...I think that I want to be with the first four on that chart. We need to apply a little logic/common sense here, though. Made For You and First Angel are third ranked, but if they race in that order, they'll not be Mid-Div/Prominent, they'll be prominent, just as Tinnahalla will be the leader, so in effect the top four need moving half a square or so to the right, like this...

...and think is how I think they'll break out and these are the four I'm most keen on here.

Summary

I've taken our nine-runner field down to four, keeping both Olly Murphy runners in the fold...

Tinnahalla looks like the pacemaker and finished 2141 in his first four races of 2021, including a heavy ground win. He was beaten into second place by his re-opposing stablemate here over course and distance last time out, going down by just half a length after being headed on the run-in. That was just over eight weeks ago now and he's since had a wind op and is 4lbs better off with Made For You, who has raced again since that C&D win, going down as a runner-up by a length and three quarters over an extra three furlongs.

The 4lbs pull should be enough for Tinnahalla to reverse the placings, but I think it'll be a couple of runs before he feels the benefit of the surgery and that Made For You is just in great form right now. I think it'll be tight again, but I've got Made For You beating Tinnahalla again here. They're my 1-2 today and they're both available at 6/1,

The bookies also see this as a close race, as my 1-2 are are behind Happy And Fine (5/1), Krypton Gold (5/1) and Quiana (11/2) in a congested market where just three points (5/1 to 8/1) separates the first seven in the market. Happy And Fine will, of course, be up with the pace and I've got him very closely matched with First Angel to make the frame, but I believe the latter is in slightly better form, his yard are in better form and his 8/1 price tag offers me (a) a bit more value and (b) an E/W opportunity, so I'm hoping that First Angel chases the Murphy horses home.

Racing Insights, Monday 24/01/22

The PACE tab on the racecards allows you to gain a quick insight into how the tactics of a race might unfold and we make this full available to ALL readers for ALL races EVERY Sunday & Monday, including of course, Monday's full free racecards, as follows...

  • 2.00 Southwell
  • 3.00 Southwell
  • 7.30 Wolverhampton

And the first of that trio, the 2.00 Southwell, is the best on paper, so let's consider this 6-runner, Class 2, A/W handicap over a straight five furlongs. The top prize is £10,800 and it will end up going home with one of these...

Mondammej had a very busy but quite successful 2021, winning 5 and placing in 5 more of 18 starts, including four wins from his last six, all at this Class 2 level. he has raced just once so far in 2022, going down by just a length and a quarter at Newcastle three weeks ago. He's also a 5-time winner over this minimum trip.

Fernando Rah won here over course and distance in December (two starts ago) before going down by a length and a quarter at Kempton over 6f last time out. His record over 5f is better than that over 6f, so a drop back to this distance should help today off a mark that is unchanged, but still 8lbs higher than his win here just over six weeks ago. Notable that his trainer & jockey have worked well over the past year...

Caroline Dale was third behind Mondammej, beaten by a neck twice when she was last seen back in October. She's had a wind op since then and now reopposes on 7lbs better terms. That would normally be more than enough to overturn the defeat, but she might well need the run and Mondammej has certainly kicked on since. That said, we do have another successful Trainer/Jockey combo here...

Mulzim has made the frame in half of his 18 A/W starts, winning seven of them, an excellent return, but he hasn't won any of his last six and has been last of 14, last of 6 and 11th of 12 in his last three. He has six wins and a place from 11 here over course and distance, but all on the old Fibresand surface (his jockey also has a good record here) and a combination of form, tapeta and a step up in class raise doubts here.

Copinet also steps up in class for her course/class debut, but she is 21134614 on the A/W with a win and two places from three on Tapeta elsewhere. All her racing has been at Class 3 or lower so far without a win above C4 and after going down by three lengths at Chelmsford just over a week ago, improvement is needed here, although yet again we've a good T/J combo...

No Speed Limit makes a UK and Taepta debut after 36 races in Ireland, where he won just twice. That's hardly reassuring, but he has finished 221322232 in nine Dundalk Polytrack starts over the last three months, so he's certainly consistent. Sadly for him, he's running from 6lbs out of the handicap and will probably find this a struggle. That said, do keep an eye out for him re-appearing at Class 3 off a mid-70's mark and he might well look a different horse.

At this point, I'd say that I'd leaning towards Mondammej and Fernando Rah and away from Mulzim and No Speed Limit...

...although Mulzim's recent decline in results/form hasn't been bad enough to ruin his 12-month percentages on Instant Expert...

...and technically off 4lbs lower than his last win, he should be dangerous. We should remember, though, that those numbers are tempered by him only beating one rival in his last three outings. My meaning towards Mondammej and Fernando Rah is reaffirmed by the above, but i'm very aware that weight rises of 5lbs and 8lbs respectively may come in to play. That said, only Mulzim is well treated on past form.

Southwell switched to Tapeta in December 2021 and we've had just twenty races (17 x hcps, but none at Class 2) over today's trip on the new surface with today's runner Fernando Rah wining the first of them, so the draw and pace stats will have to be taken on trust as the bigger picture forms over time. What we do know from looking at data from the tapeta at Newcastle & Wolverhampton over this 5f trip is that leaders fare best and the further back a horse races, the worse the chances of success become and based on their last couple of runs...

...my favoured two are likely to be up with the pace tucked in behind Caroline Dale and the two I'm not keen on will have some work to do, but not quite as much as Copinet. As for the draw, I'm not convinced there's a massive advantage to be had anywhere over a straight five furlongs with a small field, other than the horse in stall 1 (Mondammej) will have the rail to guide and keep him straight. That said, the main pace appears to be with the filly drawn widest of the six.

Summary

I liked Mondammej and Fernando Rah from the moment I wrote the brief reusmés and nothing has really suggested they won't be the first two home, assuming Caroline Dale doesn't get off to a flyer and nick the race from the front. She's definitely the main danger to my pair in my opinion and the bookies have agreed by having her as 7/2 third fav.

They've also gone with my preferred pair, but they've got them less closely matched than I have. I don't have much between them to be honest, yet the early market has Fernando Rah as 15/8 fav ahead of Mondammej at 11/4. I'd have probably gone 9/4 the pair and on that basis, I'd prefer Mondammej to prevail here.

 

 

Racing Insights, Saturday 22/01/22

The Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report is Saturday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it brings together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report, which has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers prefer to use certain jockeys when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable combinations. Clicking on any row of the report will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing, whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column.

[Please refer to the User Guide for further information]

As well as a daily free GOLD feature, we also give FREE access to a selection of races each day where all GOLD functionality has been unlocked. That means you'll be able to use the Full Form Filters, Instant Expert, Pace (and, for flat races, Draw) features for the following...

  • 12.35 Ascot
  • 1.10 Ascot
  • 1.20 Lingfield
  • 3.40 Lingfield
  • 4.25 Taunton
  • 7.00 Wolverhampton

My settings...

...for the TJC report have actually generated a few possibles to consider...

...and with both Alba Rose and Viola facing each other in one of our 'free races', it makes sense to take a look at the 3.40 Lingfield, the 14-runner, Class 2, Coral Winter Oaks Fillies Handicap. It's for fillies and mares aged 4 or over and it will be run over a left handed 1m2f on standard polytrack for a first prize of some £51,540.

Now, 14 runners isn't my idea of fun, so I'll be looking to quickly whittle the field down (using the Geegeez tools) to a more manageable size in a bid to find an E/W bet or two with most bookies paying four places (five at Skybet), so we'll start with the card...

My initial thoughts (rightly or wrongly) are to discard the top two on the Geegeez Speed ratings, as i don't feel that a Class 5 run was the right preparation for this contest. Miss Marble doesn't look particularly well treated off a mark of 91 for a handicap debut and stepping up 2.5 furlongs from her last run and quarter of a mile further than she's gone before. Enfranchise also steps up three classes and a quarter mile after only finishing 3rd of 6 here over a mile last time out. Arenas del Tiempo will probably need the run after four months off track, but watch for her being turned back out fairly quickly next time for an in-form yard, whilst I'm cutting top-weight Virgin Snow on form.

That gives me ten to look at on Instant Expert which will hopefully suggest who's cut out for the task ahead and who isn't...

On the basis of the above, I do want to be with Viola, Serenading, Umm Hurair, Lower Street and Precisely. Newgirlintown's 1 from 9 record in A/W handicaps makes her a no for me whilst the jury will remain out for the other four runners not mentioned.

We've fourteen runners strung across the track here and the draw might well have some bearing on proceedings and the stats suggest...

...that you'd rather be drawn in the lower half than the upper, although those widest of all have fared well enough, whilst the pace stats suggest that only hold-up horses fare worse than expected...

And when we combine the two sets of data...

...we're advised that a high drawn leader or a mid-drawn mid-div runner would be best suited. There isn't actually a great deal of pace in the race...

...bar the already discarded Arenas del Tiempo, who'll probably take it on from stall six before tiring and getting caught. Of the remainder, I think Alba Rose, Lower Street and Unique Cut are drawn too high, as I want to be in the first 7 or 8 stalls here, but I'll make an exception for Umm Hurair, based on both actual results and her Instant Expert numbers, so I've now whittled my fierld down to...

Timeless Soul, Pretty Sweet, Viola, Precisely, Serenading and Umm Hurair.

Summary

I quickly went from 14 to 6 and now I need to see if any are worth backing.

Timeless Soul was fourth behind Viola last out on A/W debut, beaten by 2.5 lengths and not quite seeing 1m3f out. She's now 5lbs better off with Viola, but even the drop back in trip isn't going to help in my opinion and I fancy Viola to be ahead of her again here. Pretty Sweet has yet to finish out of the frame in her 9-race career winning twice and seeing 1m4f out more than once. She ran on well to won by 2.5 lengths last time out and looks well set to be involved again here despite a 5lb rise.

Viola, of course, beat Timeless Soul (and a couple of others in this field) last time out taking her record to 3 wins and 2 places from six runs since coming back from a 201-day break last May. Her win last time out off a mark of 90 was her best win to date, but it could be that her third place in a Listed event here in October was her current high. 1m2f might be a little on the sharp side for her, but her results here at Lingfield read 2113 and I expect a good run. Precisely has shown her best form at Bath, if truth be told, although she has won over 1m1½f at Wolverhampton. Last seen finishing third of five at that track just after Christmas when a length and three lengths respectively behind the re-opposing Serenading and Umm Hurair. Much better off at the weights and she could be closer.

Serenading is now vulnerable to Precisely now that she's 2lbs worse off for a one length margin, but her extra experience might well be enough to keep her nose in front. She has a good record (4 wins, 2 places from 7) with today's jockey and with two wins and a place from her last four, she's in good nick. Last, but not least, we have Umm Hurair, the form horse, I suppose. She beat both Serenading and Precisely LTO and although a whopping 10lb rise makes life tougher, she actually won quite easily that day, completing a 23-day hat-trick. The added weight is an issue, of course, as is the small matter of a polytrack debut, but she's possibly the one to beat.

I think Umm Hurair is probably the best here, but I expect it to be tight, now she's up 10lbs and on polytrack debut and the one to cause her most grief might be course specialist Viola. Of these two, Umm Hurair is a bit short for me at 11/4 and although the most likely to win, I'd just want a bit more juice in the price, all things considered. The same, I suppose, applies to Viola at 7/1. She's probably about right at those odds, but I fancied her as an E/W option, but 7's is a stretch for me with regards to E/W betting.

Serenading could very well make the frame and I'm interested in a small play at 12's, whilst I'm also going to take Pretty Sweet at 9/1 E/W.

Good luck and enjoy your weekend! 

 

 

 

Racing Insights, Friday 21/01/22

Friday's free feature is the marvellous Horses for Courses (H4C) report, which shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track. It is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at the user’s discretion. As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

We also have a selection of free racecards each day and for Friday, they are...

  • 1.50 Ludlow
  • 2.15 Southwell
  • 3.15 Market Rasen
  • 5.15 Dundalk
  • 5.45 Dundalk

My settings for the H4C report have generated just one runner of interest...

...and he's likely to be second favourite in a 4-runner, Class 3, 7f A/W handicap. His record here at Newcastle reads 11132 with him seeming to prefer the slower nature of this track. He has won 3 times and placed in a further 3 of 9 runs over 7f on the A/W so far and although yet to land a Class 3, he is a former Class 2 winner and his record over course and distance reads 1112.

He comes here in good nick, having been a narrowly-defeated runner-up in each of his last two starts, yet gets to race off the same mark here. He's top rated by both the assessor and the Geegeez SR figures and will be looking to improve on an already impressive record held by his yard in this type of race, namely Richard Fahey + Newcastle A/W handicaps + Class 3/4 + 5/7f = 20 from 65 (30.77% SR, A/E 2.00) for a Betfair SP profit of 90.77pts at an ROI of 139.65%. These include 8 winners from 18 in fields of 6 runners or less.

There's not much to work with on draw stats in such a small field and I'd be inclined to think there's not a massive bias in a small-field straight seven furlongs, but it seems that those away from the rail fare better, which will suit Tadleel in four of four.

...with those drawn four or higher winning nine times. Tadleel likes to race prominently here at Newcastle and has done so in his two recent narrow defeats and the stats suggest that this also in a positive move for him...

So, with both draw and pace stats in his favour (albeit off a small sample size) and his excellent record here at Newcastle, especially over this trip, there's a compelling case to be made for backing Tadleel if the price is right.

Summary

Tadleel is currently the 11/4 second favourite behind the even money Diavolo, who makes a tapeta debut here and seems a tad short considering not all runners take to the surface. I was expecting 2/1 or 9/4 about Tadleel, so 11/4 is a good price and I'll gladly take that.

Very short and sweet today, but this is how quick you should be able to make a decision on each race.

Good Luck,
Chris

Racing Insights, Thursday 20/01/22

The Instant Expert tab on the race cards has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size. It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 2.30 Ludlow
  • 4.30 Newcastle
  • 5.30 Newcastle

And it's the latter of those that I'll be tackling, partly because it has 8 runners (the other have fewer) for E/W purposes and also because there's some good data in the Instant Expert. So, it's the 5.30 Newcastle, an 8-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a straight 5f on the tapeta and it's worth £4,995 to one of these...

Look Out Louis brings the best set of recent results to the table, but all bar Outrage and Ornate have won at least once in the last five starts and not only does Louis bring the best form here, he also drops two classes today. Night On Earth and Ballyare also both drop in class (-1).

All bar Look Out Louis and Melodic Charm have won at this trip before, whilst the latter is the only one of the eight yet to score here at Newcastle. In fairness to the 5yr old mare, she's never tried track nor trip! She's one of four (her plus Outrage, Ornate and Ballyare) to have raced in the last three weeks, whilst Miss Nay Never and Look Out Louis haven't raced since last September.

Melodic Charm has at least raced/won on tapeta, albeit at Wolverhampton where all her best form has been, landing 2 wins and 2 third place finishes from four efforts, mainly over 6f. She drops to 5f for the first time and is on her lowest mark, but she'll need to improve from her last outing. That said, James Tate's 5f runners have 4 wins and 2 places from 9 here over the last two years.

Night On Earth landed back to back Class 3, 5f sprints on the tapeta (Wolves, then here over C&D) in November taking his mark from 80 to 89 and he struggled under that weight at Southwell last time out after stumbling at the start. He is, however, down in class, down 4lbs (now just 2lbs higher than his last win) and has a 7lb claimer on board, so don't be surprised if he goes well here.

Miss Nay Never is 21114 on the A/W, finishing 4th of 10 at Chelmsford 112 days ago on her last run. She ran better than the result suggests, beaten by little more than half a length. She's 2111 over 5f on tapeta including 211 over course and distance. She might need the run and a mark of 85 isn't lenient, but she's interesting.

Outrage is the veteran of the field at 10 yrs of age and comes here on a 12-race losing streak after winning 2 from 3 in Jan/Feb '20 and is now 2lbs lower than his last win. He has 4 wins and 4 places from 12 races over C&D, but I don't see him troubling the judges here, he's on the wane now.

Look Out Louis won here over 6f at the start of December 2020 and has made the frame in each of his seven starts since, winning twice more. He wasn't at his best in a Class 2 good to soft ground handicap over 5f when last seen, finishing as a 3.5-length runner-up, but now drops two classes, has a 3lb claimer on his back effectively putting him back to his last wining mark and he's one that always runs his race. Very likeable, but hasn't raced for a while.

Ornate won a Class 2, 5f handicap at Lingfield off a mark of 97 at the start of last March, but is winless in thirteen races that has brought his mark down by some 18lbs, which makes him dangerous. Closer inspection of his thirteen defeats show 3 Class 1 races, 6 at Class 2 and 3 at Class 3 before finally dropping down to this level last time out, resulting in a runner-up finish by half a length at Wolverhampton. a similar run puts him right in the mix.

Ballyare has two wins and two places from his last six outings, including a course and distance win here in October. He won over 6f at Wolverhampton two starts ago, but laboured when upped in class and weight over the same track/trip last time out. He's back down in class and trip and has been eased a pound by the assessor and all three minor tweaks might just get him back going again.

Buniann was 8th of 11 over C&D, 4.5 lengths behind Ballyare when last seen three months ago and going off the same career-high mark here suggests improvement will be needed. That said, he has 5 wins and 4 places from 11 efforts over course and distance and could get closer to the action if avoiding traffic this time around.

So, plenty, if not all with chances (beginning to rue the race choice here! 😉 ) and quite a few with good relevant form as shown on 'feature of the day', Instant Expert...

In fact, they've pretty much all got decent all-weather/class/course/distance records with the only 'reds' appearing when there's a really small sample size. Miss Nay Never is the standout with a line of green and Ornate's 18lbs below his last win is really eyecatching.

If I was a subscriber and I'd just read the resumés and looked at Instant Expert, I'd probably not have any real opinion on the race and I think I'd need more help. It's not an NH race, so we do have stalls and it's a 5f sprint, so pace will be all-important too, arguably more so than the draw on a 'straight five', but we don't ignore the draw stats, just in case anything is highlighted.

So, we'll start with the draw stats, which are more interesting than I thought they'd be...

...showing that those drawn lowest of all have fared quite badly, which won't be good news for Look Out Louis or Outrage, whilst the pace stats pretty unsurprisingly...

...say that it's best to lead over 5f, but that's probably a given. That said, hold-up horses have done pretty well from wide draws, as they've had a clear run to the line as the others gravitate towards the rail possibly getting in each others way. This high draw/hold-up success is best demonstrated when  we combine the pace/draw stats into our unique heatmap, as follows...

and as we know that this field has raced like this in their recent outings...

...we can sort them into draw order and give ourselves an overview of how the race might pan out...

Look Out Louis has led in three of his last four, so he might step further forward. Outrage and Melodic Charm look worst off here, so I'd probably discount them at this point, but there are still half a dozen with real chances.

Summary

This is a race where I'd probably advise you to walk away. It might only be a Class 4 affair, but these are all pretty evenly matched, al proven at Class/Course/Distance etc. If this was a tipping service and I had to make a selection, I'd probably look at Ornate or Night On Earth to win it with any of the other four to make the frame, but the only one that's priced long enough to tempt me into a small E/W bet would be Buniann at 11/1, but it's not a race I'd want to invest heavily into and that attitude really is OK, never bet for the sake of it.

 

Racing Insights Wednesday 19/01/22

Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature is the Trainer Stats (TS) report, which is actually four reports in one, containing information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five-year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

In addition to the above 4-in-1 report, we also have the daily selection of 'free' races and they are set to be...

  • 2.00 Plumpton
  • 2.25 Newbury
  • 2.35 Plumpton
  • 3.00 Newbury

I only really use the TS report for handicaps and my fairly stringent settings have only generated one possible runner for tomorrow...

Dynamite Kentucky looks like he'll go off quite short, so I'm going to look at the last of our four free races, the 3.00 Newbury, which is an 11-runner, Class 3, 5yo+ handicap chase (for the Harwell Trophy) over 2m7½f. The going is said to be Good to Soft and they'll go left handed over 18 fences in a bid to land the £5,882 first prize...

Storm Control likes to set the pace and won back to back stayers' chases at Cheltenham in Nov/Dec of 2020, but has been pulled in three of five since, including both runs this season. Wouldn't be one to trust on form but he is down two classes here.

Landofsmiles went 11121 over fences in a three month spell from March to June last year, but has struggled off higher marks as a result and was beaten by some 50 lengths here LTO. Now down to his last winning mark, but seems out of touch.

Django Django won here over three miles two years ago and disappointed ever since, failing to complete three of his last five and losing the other two by 39L and 33L. Not for me, thanks.

Keep Wondering is two from four over fences and was game when winning at Haydock (C3, 2m6f) on heavy ground last time out, coming late from off the pace to win by half a length. A 3lb rise makes this more difficult but not impossible.

Hawthorn Cottage went 131 over fences last year before disappointing down in trip to a possibly inadequate 2m4f. She was also well beaten (16L) last time out here over three miles, but she was in Listed company that day and could well be seen in a better light down two classes.

The Devils Drop was a more than useful hurdler (3w, 2pl from 9) landing a hat-trick in the summer of 2018, but hasn't anywhere near as successful over fences and lacks consistency. Was a really good runner-up at Wincanton in early December two starts ago, but was pulled up in both races either side of that. Just two places (no wins) from seven over fences so far, he's not my idea of a winner here.

Young Wolf last won a race 16 months ago and has suffered ten defeats since, going down by 65L and 60L in his last two. His mark has plummeted in that time from 142 to today's 120, but I doubt that'll be enough to arrest a poor run of form.

Mellow Ben is on a long (15 races) losing streak over fences, but has made the frame in two of his last three, including finishing third of sixteen in a Listed contest on his last effort, suggesting a possible return to form.

Cuban Pete won on his 2020 seasonal reappearance despite a 227 day absence and he backed that run up with another win four weeks later, but in four races since he has finished second to last twice and failed to complete twice and his jumping has been sketchy.

Wayfinder has only raced 9 times to date and has a win and a place from four over fences, having been a runner-up on chase debut in Oct'20, then winning at Chepstow the same month. He was hampered and brought down on his return from a 409 day absence last month and ran well here for much of 3m2f last time out before fading. Down 3f and 2lbs will help.

Tango Boy won his only bumper and made the frame in half of his six hurdles races with out winning, but has yet to translate that form into this sphere finishing 6th of 10 (36L) and last of 4 (33L) so far. Eased 3lbs but up in class, he's probably not winning here either, but he is an unknown quantity.

Six of these have won over a similar trip and one has won here, but overall their relevant form looks like this...

Landofsmiles' 2020/21 form is the standout there, but we have to remember what poor form he's currently in. Aside from him, Keep Wondering and Hawthorn Cottage are probably the best, although Storm Control is interesting down in class and weight. I mentioned earlier that he likes to race from the front and that's probably a good idea here...

and should also benefit the likes of Hawthorn Cottage.

...whilst the decent return from hold-up horses (IV 1.15) is encouraging for the likes of  Keep Wondering and Mellow Ben.

Summary

There's quite a few here that I've not liked from the initial resumé and I've been mainly interested in Keep Wondering, Hawthorn Cottage, Mellow Ben and Wayfinder.

Keep Wondering & Hawthorn Cottage then ticked boxes on Instant Expert and pace, Mellow Ben hasn't won for ages, but looks like coming into form and ran really well in a higher grade LTO, whilst Wayfinder ran well for most of his last run, but doesn't score well since.

I think it has to be between Keep Wondering and Hawthorn Cottage and there's probably not much between them. They both rated the same by the assessor, but the latter is dropping two classes and at 8/1 with 888Sport is far more attractively priced than Keep Wondering at 2/1.

I have Hawthorn Cottage as a 6/1 chance personally, so I'll take 888's price and take a small 8/1 E/W bet. I can't back Keep Wondering at 2's and Wayfinder looks short at 4's to 6's. I did fancy a small E/W tickle on mellow ben at 12's or bigger, but 8/1 just doesn't float my boat, so I'll have to play a waiting game there.

 

 

Racing Insights, Tuesday 18/01/22

Tuesday's FREE Geegeez GOLD feature is The Shortlist : a simple (and usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day. It covers win or place stats, and can be viewed for both today’s and tomorrow’s racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. The Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form (and its odds) might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

The Shortlist for this Tuesday looks like this...

...short and hopefully sweet, but if you need/want more free stuff, how about these 'races of the day'...

  • 2.40 Exeter
  • 2.55 Newcastle
  • 4.20 Southwell

Carausius is very likely to close to even money and whilst I'm not always comfortable backing such shorties, that doesn't mean that (a) nobody likes backing at those odds and (b) there can't still be some value in the price. And as I'm not particularly keen on the 'free' races, I am going to look at Carausius to see if I think he's worth backing (or even laying) and if so, whether there's an opportunity to land another forecast.

The race is the 6.20 Southwell, a 6-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left handed 1m4f on standard to slow Tapeta and here's Carausius' racecard entry...

As you can see, he's backed by some good stats with 20%+ wins, A/E scores of 1.40 and upwards and IVs of greater than 1.70. In addition to those numbers, the card tells us that he's coming here on  a hat-trick and that he's a former course and distance winner who last raced 33 days ago. His trainer is shown as being in good recent form (14) and that his jockey has a good record at the venue (C1 C5), but let's do some work of our own and take a closer look.

Carausius has failed to make the frame in any of his four starts on turf, but his A/W form reads 41311, including...

  • 1311 here at Southwell
  • 411 on std to slow
  • 411 under today's jockey
  • 311 in handicaps
  • 111 here at Southwell over this trip
  • 131 as a fav
  • 2 from 2 over course and distance on the new Tapeta surface
  • 1 from 1 at Class 4

He comes here off the back of a second successive course, surface and distance win (he also won over C&D on the fibresand last year), defying a 5lb and 1 class rise in a comfortable enough win by almost three lengths. He looked like he'd more to give if needed and I'm convinced that another 6lbs is quite enough to anchor him. He's going to be a short price, but hopefully not as short as the 4/7 he was sent off at LTO.

Now we know from The Shortlist that he's likely to show up well on Instant Expert and although this isn't one of your 'free' races, I'll show the whole graphic so you can get a feel of how much better his numbers are than those of his rivals...

Similarly with the pace tab, here's the full overview...

I'd want to focus on Carausius' last two runs, because they were both over course and distance and a hold-up approach was successful. We don't have enough data from Southwell's new surface just yet, but if our runner is 2 from 2 over C&D from a hold-up position, then I'm going make an educated guess that this might be the right tactic, which would also seem to suit Soaring Star, who himself goes off the same mark as when beaten by just a neck here over course and distance last week despite being denied a clear run late on.

Summary

Quite brief and to the point today and my aim was to see if Carausius was a likely winner or not, whether an even money price tag was fair and also who could beat him or follow him home for the forecast, so here goes...

I do think he's the most likely here, but a 6lb rise obviously makes life tougher. He's currently priced at 11/10, which seems fair as he may well end up at evens or even odds on. 11/10 might not seem a value price, but if he's a even money chance in your estimations, then you've got 10% extra at 11/10. Best of the rest? Probably Soaring Star, who ran really well here last week and could well consider himself unlucky not to have won and I think he'll give the fav a run for his money. A reverse forecast could be the play here.

PS You may have noticed I didn't mention the draw. As with the pace, we don't have enough data for the new surface, but the two wins here over C&D for Carausius came from stall 2 of 6 and 9 of 12, so you could win from anywhere. Over a trip of a mile and a half, the draw tends to become less important than pace.

 

Racing Insights, Monday 17/01/22

The pace tab on the Geegeez racecards can give you a really prediction of how the race might pan out from a tactical perspective. PACE is not simply a case of which horse is the fastest, it's all about race management. Think Tortoise & Hare, Hare would have an average pace score of 4 (led) with the slow-moving Tortoise scoring 1 (held-up), but 4 doesn't always beat 1 : it all depends on the race conditions.

The PACE tab is free to access for ALL readers, irrespective of subscription status, each Sunday and Monday for EVERY race, including our daily free cards, which are set to be...

  • 2.00 Chepstow
  • 3.20 Fakenham
  • 3.35 Punchestown
  • 7.00 Wolverhampton

Monday racing is invariably poor fayre and today is no exception, we've either small fields or poor races and faced with that choice I'd generally plump for the former. The first of the free races is the highest class of the four, so we're off to Wales for the 2.00 Chepstow, a trappy/competitive looking Class 3, 5yo+ handicap chase. The trip is a left-handed 2m3½f, taking in 16 fences on soft ground, but the £8,169 first prize will only be contested by four runners, where I'll be hoping to get the 1-2 from this quartet...

Eden du Houx carries top weight here, but only a pound more than the next two on the card. He was a winner at this grade/going over two miles at Ffos Las on his last run ten weeks ago, which was a decent effort coming some 236 days after his previous run, a tough race at the Cheltenham Festival. He also won on his only previous visit to this track, but that was over hurdles almost two years ago. he ahs three wins and two places from six on soft ground and has made the frame at both starts over today's trip. His regular rider is in situ, he's a former Listed class bumper winner, has fared better going left handed and has some decent stats to back up claims here...

Farne was a hurdles winner here over course and distance clear by an ever-increasing five lengths when the line came two starts ago back in March of last year. She was then put back in the shed for 263 days before reappearing at Warwick almost six weeks ago for her chase debut. After a shaky start where she was hampered at the first, she grew into the race and was eventually third of eight, a decent result on debut after such a long break, but even more so when you consider that it was a Listed race and she's now down two classes, whilst the winner that day has since been a runner-up in a Grade 2! She has never won on soft ground, but has placed in three of five efforts, she's two from two at the trip and having had that chasing bow and dropping in class, she should have a real chance here.

Frenchy Du Large has won two of his eleven starts to date, making the frame in another four. He was a useful Class 4 hurdler with his best effort being his last one almost 11 months ago, winning by 2.25 lengths over 2m5½f on heavy ground at Ludlow. He unseated at the second fence (made mistake at the first) on his chase debut some 257 days later, but got off the mark over fences next/last time out, winning pretty comfortably over 2m4f at Uttoxeter last month. He's up 1 class and 9lbs for that win, which makes life more difficult here, but when you've won two of your last three, you'd fancy your chances, especially for a yard that is 7 from 20 (35% SR, A/E 1.59) in Class 2 to 4, soft ground handicap chases here at Chepstow over the last five years.

Firak completes the line-up and receives 5/6 lbs from the other three. He was placed in four of his five hurdle runs before struggling on chase debut at the end of October 2020, when only 6th of 7, beaten by 24 lengths over 2m5f at Stratford. He then switched back hurdles and won a heavy-ground maiden here over course and distance almost a year ago, but has only raced once since. That last run was a month ago (so 11 months rest) at Haydock, but he could only finish 7th of 22 (bt by 22L) over two miles on soft ground. He'll have the benefit of having had a run, he's been eased 3lbs by the assessor and the step back in trip should also work in his favour. Add in the fact that #TeamSkelton have a really good record over fences on soft or worst ground (26/107 = 24.3%) in recent years and he could go well.

At this point, I'd say Firak looks the most vulnerable, but any of the four could have serious claims to wining this. I've mentioned a few stats about the quartet's past run, but Instant Expert can show you all this for all four horses at once to help you decide who you think will handle conditions best and it help to select/eliminate a runner or two...

Eden du Houx has struggled at Class 3, winning 1 of 6 and failing to place in any of the other five and although placed at this trip, has fared better over shorter. He's also 5lbs higher for that LTO win. Farne has actually made the frame in three of those five soft ground defeats and has a relatively recent course and distance success, albeit over hurdles. Frenchy du Large doesn't look as good here as he might actually be in reality, but he's in form for a good yard, although a 9lb rise could hurt. Firak again looks weakest, albeit off a small sample size and again, like Farne has won a hurdles race over course and distance.

Today's free feature is, of course, the PACE tab and this show how the horses have raced in their last four outings, as follows...

Now, at the moment, that's not massively helpful, as there appears to be no pace in the race, but we'll start with Farne, who is a confirmed hold-up horse or at least has been in each of her last six outings and as she's been in good form, I think it's safe to say she'll be in the rear here. A quick look back over Frenchy du Large's career says he's a prominent runner, whilst Firak's average pace score over his eight races is a solid 2 with six of eight runs ranked at 1 or 2. Lastly Eden du Houx whos average pace score over seven chase runs is around the 2.5 mark, but four of those seven were scored at an average of 3.33, so he may be the one to take the race on.

Based purely on the horses' last four outings of any kind, here's what the pace profile/race positioning looks like...

and here's how my estimated pace scores might pan out...

...and if (and I know it's an if) Eden du Houx does take it on and tackle the race from the front, that would probably be his best tactic, based on these previous races here at Chepstow...

Summary

Frenchy du Large is probably the best horse in the race, but I'm not convinced conditions will be to his liking and up in class and 9lbs in weight, a price around the 6/4 mark looks a bit skinny. Firak has proven to be the weakest throughout the analysis but for his trainer/jockey's past soft ground success. Eden du Houx and Farne seem pretty closely matched, but if the former takes it on, I think he could win this.

Backing Eden du Houx at 5/2 isn't making any of us rich, of course, but a (reverse) forecast with the fav might be the call.

 

Racing Insights, Saturday 15/01/22

We unlock a different Geegeez GOLD feature for all readers every day and for Saturdays, it's the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which is pretty self explanatory and brings together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Quite simply, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’. This report quickly identifies the most profitable combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing. And clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

As well as a free daily feature, we also give FREE access to a selection of races each day where all GOLD functionality has been unlocked. That means you'll be able to use the Full Form Filters, Instant Expert, Pace and, for flat races, Draw features for the following...

  • 12.27 Wetherby
  • 1.32 Kempton
  • 3.00 Warwick
  • 5.15 Chelmsford
  • 6.15 Chelmsford

My settings for the TJC report...

...haven't generated many possible bets, so I'm going back to the free races, of which the middle one is the highest rated. There are fifteen scheduled to run in the 3.00 Warwick, which is a few too many for my comfort zone, but we should stretch ourselves occasionally, plus we might find a nicely-priced E/W prospect. It's a Grade 3, 5yo+ handicap chase worth a decent £56,950 and to win, they'll need to tackle 22 fences over a testing left-handed 3m5f on soft ground, which might not suit many!

What I want to do here is quickly eliminate a good chunk of the field, hopefully leaving me with an E/W bet (or two) with most firms paying five places and the first one I'm discarding is Grace a Vous Enki. His form since coming over to the UK hasn't been good, he's up from Class 4 and a Grade 3 isn't the place for a handicap debutant, as far as I'm concerned. Captain Tommy, No Rematch and The Hollow Ginge look the weakest from a recent form perspective, so I'm discounting them too, as I head straight to Instant Expert...

...where Head To The Stars and Eclair Surf both look like they'll struggle on soft ground, Padleyourowncanoe has a poor record at Class 1, but most of those to have tried track or trip seem to have handed them well enough. But I have trying to show you that you can get through a big field quickly, so the three I've just mentioned are gone, as we consider the pace aspect of the race. Our pace analyser doesn't actually have a great deal of data to work with/from for this race...

...but I don't think I want to be backing a hold-up horse here. I'm not deterred about a mid-division runner though, as the sample size isn't big enough to be conclusive. So, based on how they've run of late...

Jerrysback is a confirmed hold-up horse, so that's likely to be an issue, as it might well be for Corach Rambler. I did actually like the latter to get involved here, but coming from the back over 3m5f on soft ground in such a high quality race might be tough when up in class and weight and if I'm being true to the process, then Achille will probably have to go too, which again is a shame.

This leaves me with (in card order) Notachance, Minella Encore, Chirico Vallis, Gericault Roque and Game Line from which I'll make a selection (or two). I'm well aware that such a quick superficial runthrough might have already discarded the winner, but I hope to still a profitable angle.

Summary

I've left myself with five (same number as places paid by the bookies) to consider, I could (but probably won't) say back all five or equally likely say back none, so let's have a quick look.

Notachance has made the frame in half of his ten starts over fences, winning three times including winning this race off the same mark last year. He loves soft ground, gets the trip readily and should have a great chance of making the frame. 10/1 is a little longer than I expected, so I'll have a small E/W bet here.

Minella Encore won by 24 lengths and 18 lengths either side of being pulled up on unsuitably good ground at Cheltenham in November. Has finished 114232 in six soft ground runs, but isn't getting any younger/fitter at 10 yrs old and is up in class here and seems to be carrying too much weight off 137. Could still run to a place, but I'd want a bit more than 14/1.

Chirico Vallis is in a similar boat at the age of ten and his chasing record suggests he either wins (3 of 10), fails to finish (2 x F and 2 x PU) or doesn't make the frame. I don't see him winning here, so something needs to change to make him get placed and I'm not entirely sure that stepping up in class with a 5lb rise for an all-out holding on win over 4.5 furlongs shorter is going to help him, so he's a no from me and it's probably why you can get 25/1 about him.

Gericault Roque is probably the one to beat here, as he's always there or thereabouts and any horse who has beaten him so far has had to make the frame to do so. For me, he definitely makes the frame, but at 9/2, he's no E/W bet for me and although I think he's one of the more likely winners, they're not attractive odds. They're fair odds, nothing more and I certainly wouldn't talk you out of backing him, but I won't be.

Game Line is a strange one, he has the profile for a sfot ground stayer, he's experienced, he's getting weight all round despite winning three of seven last year, yet he's the 40/1 outsider. And that's because he's a Class 3 horse at best, trying Class 1 racing for the first time, he's got a new (short on winners) jockey on board and his best form usually comes a little later in the season. Yet I'm still weirdly drawn to him, he could well make the frame, you know and from a prominent racing position could be handily placed to outrun his odds, so I think I will have a (very) small dabble at 40's.

Good Luck however you play it.

Chris

 

Racing Insights, Friday 14/01/22

Friday's free Geegeez GOLD feature is the wonderful Horses for Courses (H4C) report, which does pretty much what you'd expect and shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track. It is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at the user’s discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

In addition to the H4C report, we also have our usual selection of free races and they're going to be...

  • 1.00 Huntingdon
  • 2.20 Sedgefield
  • 3.45 Dundalk
  • 3.50 Sedgefield
  • 6.15 Dundalk

And here's how my H4C report looks...

...and with Road Warrior running in a 'free race', it makes sense to cover the 2.20 Sedgefield today, which is a soft (firmer in places) ground, 7-runner, Class 3, 5yo+ handicap chase, where they'll go left handed for 2m3½f over 16 fences in a bid to land the £9,803 first prize...

Galileo Silver was a decent enough hurdler/bumper (placed in 5 of 7 inc 2 wins), but has come into his own over fences of late and now comes here on a hat-trick after wins by 11 lengths and 16 lengths in his last two races. Up a class and another 9lbs (up 14lbs from 2LR) makes this tougher but not impossible. He's 3 from over 2m4f and 1 from 1 here, so he's on familiar territory and his yard does well both with chasers but also with LTO winners...

The King Of May hasn't won a race since his brief 2019/20 season where he was 2 from 3 including a soft ground win here over 2m½f at this grade. His last three runs have seen him 4th of 6, last of 6 and 4th of 6 again beaten by 13, 20 and 22 lengths with a breathing op seeming to have no effect. He looks set to struggle again, even if his trainer & jockey have a good record here...

Dr Sanderson won four of his first five career starts back in 2018/19, but seemed to lose his way under high handicap marks in the 130's. That mark eventually fell to 112 last November and he duly cashed in with a win over 2m½f at Ayr and followed that up by scoring again over 2m3f off 117. He's up in class here and raised another 5lbs and bearing in mind his LTO win was only by half a length all out, he might not quite get there this time, although the runner-up front LTO won next time out off 4lbs higher.

Ashutor won back to back, soft ground, Class 3 chases at Stratford & Fontwell off marks of 125 & 132 inside 9 days last August but has failed to even make the frame in any of seven starts since, although in fairness five were at Class 2 and one was a grade 3. He's down in class (-1) and weight (-5), but he's in such poor form right now that he's best left alone.

Road Warrior is, of course, our H4C horse, his jockey is in good form as is his yard who have a good record here helped partly by the horse's 3 wins and 3 places from 8 visits. He landed a hat-trick of wins in Feb/Mar/April last year but struggled in two Wetherby runs in October. Two good December runs back here followed and he won over course and distance last time out. He's up in both class and weight, as you'd expect, but he's in great nick and likes the soft ground and should be there or thereabouts once more.

Commis D'Office got off the mark at the tenth time of asking when winning by a length over 2m½f at Southwell last march before bedding down for nine months. His reappearance didn't go so well, up 1 class and 4lbs, he was last home of six, nineteen lengths adrift at Doncaster and whilst he'd be entitled to come on for the run, his first nine races don't suggest he wins here stepping up in trip.

Hideo has only raced once in the UK and did very little bar get round at Wetherby just after Christmas. He was at the back throughout and came home last of four beaten by 43 lengths. But he's not totally new, he was a six-race maiden in France prior to his £10,000 sale and that form wouldn't be good enough here for me, especially as his yard are 1/27 in handicap chases here over the last two years!

Based on the above brief overviews, I like Galileo Silver, Dr Sanderson and Road Warrior (in card order), but I don't like the other four. Maybe Instant Expert will persuade me?

Well, Galileo would like it quicker if truth be told, although he has won on heavy, he's inexperienced at this level, but gets the trip, That 9lb rise is troublesome. The King looks better than I expected and will get the conditions well enough and is well below his last winning mark but has never raced this far. Dr Sanderson's record at this grade is lamentable at 1 win and 1 other place from 11 and a 5lb rise probably rules him out.

Ashutor is the one catching the eye based on going/class form, but it has to be repeated that those wins were largely almost a year ago and he's bang out of form right now. That said, he clearly has ability and is well weighted of 122 here. We know Road Warrior will love it here again, yes he's up 4lbs from his highest winning mark, but his form is good although he's yet to prove himself at this level. Commis D'Office isn't suited by class or the going and Hideo just doesn't seem good enough.

Chasers don't use stalls, of course, so no draw to think about but what about tactics here? Well, the pace analyser for past similar races says...

...that those setting the pace do best from both a win and place perspective by some considerable distance...

 and if we look at how this field has raced in the past...

...it's very hard to get away from the H4C horse!

Summary

Road Warrior is the H4C horse here and he's going to need a career-best effort to win here and hold off likely favourite and hat-trick seeker, Galileo Silver. Aside from the 4lb rise, Road Warrior has ticked boxes all along and a quick look at the market says he's 5/1 with Bet365. I thought he'd be closer to 10/3, so I'll take a piece of that. Galileo Silver will be prominent too, but he's even more of a weight hike to bear and runner-up is where I have him.

If you need a third horse, I think I will stick with Dr Sanderson as he fared well through the analysis and should be up in the leading quartet. Commis D'Office is the dark horse, though. He could take it on and his yard are flying right now, but I'm just not sure enough to put him forward.

Racing Insights, Thursday 13/01/22

Thursday's feature of the day is full access for all readers to the Instant Expert tab on the racecards. This is by far the most popular tab on the geegeez racecards.

The reason? It has the ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view. The report covers the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size. It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

And every Thursday we make this open to all readers for all races, including our free ones, which will be...

  • 12.40 Catterick
  • 1.10 Catterick
  • 3.20 Newcastle
  • 6.30 Chelmsford

And I think I'll swerve the NH contests and focus on the last of those four races, the 6.30 Chelmsford. It's interesting on paper because you don't often see three LTO winners in a 7-runner Class 6 contest. Add in the fact that the handicapper rates them all within 6lbs of each other and we might have ourselves a trappy little bargain basement tear-up. So, yes, 7 go in this Class 6, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 1m2f on standard polytrack, the prize is just over £3,000 which might just cover the horsebox diesel prices at today's prices and here's the card...

My initial thoughts here were that the three heading the Geegeez Speed ratings were the three to focus on, but not necessarily in that order.

Copake, Captain St Lucifer and Bella Colorosa are our three LTO winners, but James Park Woods was a runner-up a fortnight ago, so they've the best of recent form. Channel Packet has won over an extended 1m2f at Nottingham and has scored twice here over a mile, whilst Captain St Lucifer's sole career win was here over course and distance five weeks ago. That five week break is the longest any of these have been off the track and Bella Colorosa actually ran (and won) last Wednesday over 1m3f at Kempton.

James Park Woods is 1 from 30 across all codes, last won 19 races and almost 28 months ago and has made the frame just once in seven A/W starts, when a runner-up at Wolverhampton last time out. He goes off the same mark here, but whether he can back it up is debatable.

Channel Packet was 4th of 9, beaten by 5 lengths at Wolverhampton last time out and is eased a pound in the weights here. Winless since scoring here over a mile just over 11 months ago, the best of those ten defeats since have been here at Chelmsford where he has 2 wins and 7 places from 16.

Diamonds At Dusk has made the frame just once in nine starts so far and probably will extend that to ten here. She had looked like the penny was dropping late last year with some handy efforts both here and at Kempton but she was a disappointing seven length fourth of ten at Wolverhampton LTO and will need a considerable upshift here even off 2lbs lower.

Copake won/placed for the first time LTO as he got up by a neck at Wolverhampton in his tenth start a month ago after seeing his mark plummet from 69 to 52 in the space of six defeats. He's only a pound higher here which should, I suppose, give him a chance, but he's hardly reliable.

Dubai Emperor has raced three times on turf and three times on the A/W but has yet to make the frame. He did, however, get to within just over a quarter of a length of the winner LTO, when 5th of 12 in a race where the first eight home were within half a length of each other. He was running on well there despite coming off a six month layoff and off the same mark here might welcome the 120 yards or so.

Captain St Lucifer was only beaten by a head and a nose over this trip at Beverley back in September when a surprise 25/1 placer off a lowly mark of 48, before running even better next/last time out to win here by three quarters of a length over course and distance off 1lb higher. He's only up 2lbs for that win and with his yard going pretty well right now, he's a contender here.

Bella Colorosa failed to make the frame in seven starts for trainer Mark Pattinson, but defied a 163 day absence to score over 1m3f at Kempton last Wednesday on her debut for new handler Richard Kingscote. She won quite readily there on her first effort beyond a mile and she looks well treated under a 5lb penalty here, providing a second run in just over a week isn't too much. That said, she is a 6/4 fav in Wednesday's 7.00 race over1m4f at Kempton, so she might not come here after all.

Channel Packet has made the frame in 14 of his 40 starts (35% SR), winning 5 times (12.5%) along the way. These aren't exactly exceptional figures, but the rest of the field combined have just 18 places from 78 (23.%) including a mere 4 wins (5.1%) and this means that the win side of Instant Expert probably won't tell us much at all...

...so we'll consider the place percentages...

...which tell us a little bit more, but only really rule out Diamonds at Dusk who I already thought was the weakest in the field. The most experienced of them, Channel Packet is drawn 6th of 7 here and whilst that's not a bad to run to a place from, as Instant Expert suggests he might...

...it's not great on the win stats where low seems best : good news for the Captain! However, it's not all about the draw over such a long trip here at Chelmsford, it's generally more about pace, positioning and race tactics and as you're probably sick of myself, Matt, Sam et al telling you, upfront is the place to be here at Chelmo...

But we have no out and out leader in our pack, based on their last four outings...

...but Diamonds will race prominently, as should James Park Woods, but Channel Packet actually set the pace at Wolverhampton last time out and similar tactics back on his favoured track with his preferred jockey, he might well be the one to take it on.

Summary

I don't like Diamonds at Dusk, even though she might take it on and I think Bella Colorosa will miss this race in favour of a run at Kempton, where her hold-up won't be as much of a hindrance, so I'm left with five. I like Captain St Lucifer, as he's in good form, he won over C&D LTO and his yard are doing well and all things considered, he's the one to beat for me. 4/1 is neither generous nor punitive, so I'll have a nibble at that.

I also liked the way Dubai Emperor ran last time out, but he might need to show his hand a little earlier than usual and he's 8/1 with 888Sport, so could be a nice E/W bet, as could Channel Packet, who's more than capable here and with Hills going 17/2 and 3 places, I might throw a couple of shillings that way.

Racing Insights, Wednesday 12/01/22

The Trainer Statistics (TS) report does exactly what it says on the tin, but is in fact, four reports in one, contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

This report is free to all GOLD subscribers every day of the week, but we make it open to everyone every Wednesday alongside a selection of full free racecards which, for Wednesday, will cover...

  • 2.20 Leicester
  • 4.00 Kempton
  • 6.30 Kempton

A combination of not much handicap racing and these fairly stringent report settings...

...means I have no qualifiers to display on my own Trainer Statistics (TS) report, so I'll revert to the free list for today's piece. The last of the trio is the best standard (on paper, anyway) and as such, we'll tackle the 6.30 Kempton, a 6-runner (was 7!), Class 3, 4yo+ Fillies Handicap over a right handed 7f on Standard To Slow polytrack and here are the runners contesting the £10,308 pot...

Cry Havoc ran well enough two starts ago when nearer (2L) than 4th of 7 would suggest at Lingfield at this grade at the start of December, but she ran poorly at Newcastle last time out. That said, she has 3 wins and 2 places from 9 on poly and has won here in the past. She's up in class here, but interestingly off 2lbs lower and 3lbs below her Class 2 win seven starts ago. Could definitely be in the shake-up.

Epsom Faithfull also struggled last time out, beaten by 11 lengths here over course and distance at a lower grade, trailing home some 11 lengths adrift. She hasn't been seen for 12 weeks and runs off the same mark here but up in class. On a more positive note, her 5lb claimer is riding well at present and has clocked up some wins for this yard...

Famille Rose won here over course and distance at Class 5 on her A/W debut back in early November 2020, but didn't race again for 13 months until reappearing here five weeks ago to finish 3rd or 9 over a mile, again at Class 5. Her mark is unaltered from that run and she's entitled to improve for having had the pipe-opener, but she is up two classes here and although her yard have fared well here of late, especially with today's jockey, she's not a shoo-in.

Separate has been 7th of 9 and then last of 7 in her two most recent outings (her only A/W runs) and has a career record of just 2 wins from 24 and has lost her last 17 races since winning in September 2019, failing to make the frame in the last 15. Not for me here.

Piselli Molli (soft/mushy peas in Italian?) has made the frame just once in five A/W starts and that was back in September 2020. She tackles Class 3 racving for the first time today, despite a fairly resounding (10L) defeat as 7th of 12 at Southwell last time out. She did end the last Flat season 1341 and she is efectively some 8lbs better off than LTO, but she's still not one I'd trust.

Sealed Offer is another bang out of form, winless since landing a Class 5 novice race at Lingfield in mid-December 2020. In the last 13 months since that win, she is 0/9 in handicaps, placing just the once, although she was also 3rd of 6 over course and distance off 5lbs higher back in September but hasn't kicked on since and now steps up two classes.

This doesn't look as good a race as I thought it would be when I started and although Famille Rose is by means a cert, you can now see why she'll be a short-priced fav here. Of the rest, top-weight Cry Havoc is interesting plus possibly Epsom Faithfull and this is backed up by the A/W stats contained within Instant Expert...

Epsom Faithfull's weight is the obvious one to note here and if she's race ready after 12 weeks off, she could well be nicely weighted here. Famille Rose ticks most boxes, but off a small number of runs, but both of them are making a Class 3 debut, where Cry Havoc does at least have some (albeit losing) experience.

We've a right handed turn here and the draw stats suggest that the fav Famille Rose (now effectively in #5) will have the best draw

...with widest of all, Sealed offer done no favours at all. Of my trio, Cry Havoc would be favoured over Epsom Faithfull from those numbers. I'd now normally look at the pace and how it interacts with the draw etc, but here we have a problem. The likely pacemaker is now a non-runner and recent outings suggest that none of the six will be keen to take it on...

...and I'm expecting a fairly slow falsely run contest here and that's only going to play into the hands of the better horses here. Some of these do have a couple of prominent runs, but there's no out and out leader and if they go no pace, the faster finishers like Cry Havoc and Famille Rose will love it.

Summary

This has to be Famille Rose's race to win/lose, but I'm not getting involved at odds as low as 1/2. Cry Havoc is also wildly priced in my opinion right out at 15/2 and she's every chance of outrunning those odds, so I'll take a small E/W punt there.

 

 

 

Your first 30 days for just £1