Did you know that the Instant Expert tab is by far the most popular tab on the geegeez racecards?
That's because it has the ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view. The report covers the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size. It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.
IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.
This GOLD feature is so important that we make freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday alongside our usual selection of FREE races which, for this Thursday are...
- 3.30 Cheltenham
- 6.50 Dundalk
- 7.50 Dundalk
- 8.00 Chelmsford
And I think we'll head back to the Festival, where I can't promise another successful tricast/trifecta, but I'll do my best to unravel the 3.30 Cheltenham, an 11-runner, Grade 1, 4yo+ stayers' hurdle over a left-handed three miles on soft ground that will be better in places...
The obvious form horse here is Blazing Khal, who has won his last five and both Home By The Lee & Teahupoo come here seeking hat-tricks. Gold Tweet won the Cleeve hurdle on UK debut last time out and Henri le Farceur now makes his UK debut after landing a French Grade 2 hurdle on his last run. Yet despite eight top three finishes from his last eleven runs, Ashdale Bob hasn't won any of them.
None of these have raced in the last month with Klassical Dream and Henri le Farceur both coming off 100days+ layoffs. It's not a handicap, so they'll all carry 11st10lbs, but based on official ratings, that puts Teahupoo best off, a pound clear of Flooring Porter (seeking to win this for the third year in a row) and Klassical Dream.
Ashdale Bob, Dashel Drasher & Henri le Farceur are yet to win over a similar trip, but DD has at least won at Cheltenham before (2m4½f) and Klassical Dream has won here over 2m½f, but is three from four at 2m7½f/3m elsewhere. Blazing Khal, Flooring Porter, Gold Tweet, Paisley Park and Sire du Berlais have all won over course and distance with Gold Tweet's win in the Cleeve Hurdle ten weeks ago the most recent.
As for class and going, we have Instant Expert on hand...
I'm immediately going to say no to Ashdale Bob on form, going, class and distance, whilst Dashel Drasher is weak on class too, as is Home by the Lee (trip an issue too) and Sire du Berlais has poor soft ground form, hasn't the best Class 1 record and essentially just doesn't win often enough. He owes his yard/owner nothing, but I can't see him figuring here. All of which sounds a bit brutal, but I'm now just considering...
The pace profile for similar past races...
...says that those setting the pace are quite often a target for the others to aim at, as is often the case here at Cheltenham and based on the field's recent runs...
...you'd say Flooring Porter was at the most risk, but the caveat here is that he has made all to win this race in each of the last two years, so I wouldn't be ruling him or any of my five out on pace just yet, meaning we'll need a closer look at them...
BLAZING KHAL took five goes to get off the mark in bumpers, but is foru from four since, winning a couple of grade 2 races here in the process in 2021. Returned from 14 months off to win another gr2 at Navan last month, but this is his his toughest task yet, running at Gr1 for the first time.
FLOORING PORTER knows his way around this track/trip after tapes to post wins in this very race in each of the last two renewals. His preparations haven't gone as well this time around and the standard looks higher here, but he'll be in the mix.
GOLD TWEET ran well in france before coming to the UK for the C&D Cleeve Hurdle almost seven weeks where he relished trip and the soft ground. Still unexposed at the trip and should go well again, even if this is a stronger field.
PAISLEY PARK isn't the horse that won seven on the bounce from Oct '18 to Jan '20, including the 2019 version of this race, but is still a formidable opponent. Has been there or thereabouts again of late, but was almost 10 lengths behind Gold Tweet last time out and with that winner looking capable of more, that possibly rules this runner out.
TEAHUPOO has won a Gr1 and Gr2 in his last two outings, demonstrating his stamina at the trip and on heavy ground and for me, he's probably the one to beat, having beaten Honeysuckle by almsot three lengths in December despite conceding 7lbs.
Summary
You can make a case for all of the five I've still got left in at the moment , but with four places up for grabs, I'm leaving Paisley Park out, as at 11yo, he's just not quite up with the others from which I like Teahupoo the best. Teahupoo is the 10/3 jt fav with Blazing Khal right now with Flooring Porter and Gold Tweet best priced at 11/2 and 11/1 respectively, so I'd be hoping for Teahupoo to win and Gold Tweet would be my E/W option.
Other Recent Posts by This Author:
- Tix Picks, Saturday 04/01/25
- Tix Picks, Friday 03/01/25
- Tix Picks, Thursday 02/01/25
- Tix Picks, Tuesday 31/12/24
- Tix Picks, Monday 30/12/24
