Racing Insights, Monday 29/04/24

The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.

This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...

• 5.00 Ayr
• 6.20 Naas
• 7.39 Windsor
• 7.50 Naas
• 9.00 Wolverhampton

If truth be told, none of the three UK races above appeal to me for one reason or another (never bet in a race that doesn't interest you!), so I'm going to look at the highest-rated/most valuable UK race of the day, the 6.39 Windsor, a 9-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ Flat handicap over 1m2f around the figure of eight on soft ground...

Early indications/thoughts are that this might well be a three-horse race between (in card order) top-weight Asgard's Captain, fast-finisher Fast Steps and sole LTO winner Mythical Guest, but let's have a closer look to see what we can find.

Mythical Guest was indeed the only one these nine runners to win last time out, but Fast Steps and First Officer were both runners-up and Asgard's Captain has won three of his last four before going down by four lengths at Lingfield on Good Friday. On the other hand, Enthrallment, Fast Steps and Grey Fox are on losing runs, having been beaten in their last 12, 7 and 8 races respectively.

Fast Steps' and Grey Fox's hopes of breaking their losing runs won't be helped by a step up in class here and LTO winner Mythical Guest is also up from Class 5, but Asgard's Captain, The Whipmaster and First officer all step down a level. Only four of the field have raced in the past month, as Enthrallment, Silver Gunn, First Officer, The Whipmaster and Grey Fox return from respective breaks of 101, 144, 178, 178 and 228 days.

Enthrallment has moved yards during his layoff and is the only one of the nine without a win at a similar trip to this one and of the five to have raced here at Windsor before, only Mythical Guest has failed to win, as The Whipmaster scored here over 1m3½f last June and Silver Gunn, Fast Steps & Grey Fox are all former course and distance winners. This info is shown on Instant Expert, along with details of three former soft ground winners...

...there's no real standout candidate there, but Silver Gunn's numbers are pretty decent. I should refer to Asgard's Captain now being some 34lbs higher than his last win, too. He is indeed running off 89 which is 34lbs higher than the 49 he was rated when winning at Musselburgh in August 2023. Since then, he had a twenty-week break before racing solely on the A/W this year finishing 1521118 winning off marks of 63, 68, 73 and 79, so he's 'only' 4lbs higher than his last actual win and could be weighted nicely if bringing his A/W game to the Turf.

Our draw analyser suggests that those drawn lowest here might be at a disadvantage from a win perspective...

...but have as good a chance of any of making the frame and if we look at how those 40-odd races were won, we find that those prepared to set the pace have been the most successful...

...and if recent races are anything to go by...

...Asgard's Captain could very well be afforded an easy early lead.

Summary

The draw/pace stats suggest a high draw coupled with a willingness to lead could be the perfect storm here with 6 high drawn leaders from 14 making the frame with 4 (28.57%) going on to win...

Asgard's Captain is drawn highest of all and tops the pace chart, he has won 6 of his last 10, 5 of his last 8 and 3 of his last 4 and was a winner on his last outing in this grade, so it's Asgard's Captain at 7/2 (Sunday 5pm) for me here.

Other Recent Posts by This Author:

• Tix Picks, Saturday 04/01/25
• Tix Picks, Friday 03/01/25
• Tix Picks, Thursday 02/01/25
• Tix Picks, Tuesday 31/12/24
• Tix Picks, Monday 30/12/24