Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.
As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.
HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.
My chosen settings for the report...
...have sadly yielded just one qualifier for Friday...
...but I can, of course, always fall back upon our daily list of 'free' races...
- 3.20 Thirsk
- 4.08 Fontwell
- 4.45 Ffos Las
- 5.00 Down Royal
- 6.43 Salisbury
- 7.43 Salisbury
...and I think it makes sense to look at Ready Freddie Go from the H4C report, who runs in the first of our free races, the 3.20 Thirsk. It's a 12-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ flat handicap over a straight 6f on good ground...
Only Tinto comes here off the back of a win, but Bay Breeze won his penultimate race, Fast And Loose was third LTO and Rock Opera's last three results read 122, but he is now returning from a 14-month break, so could very well need the run!
Brazen Bolt won six races ago and feature horse Ready Freddie Go has a win and a place from his last three, but seven of this field are without a win in their recent form lines.
I said Rock Opera might need a run on his second handicap outing after a 14-month absence and that might also apply to Ingra Tor and Pendleton after breaks of 144 and 349 days respectively, during which time the latter has moved yards and now makes a debut for Julie Camacho.
Only Ready Freddie Go, Tinto and Fast And Loose ran at Class 3 last time out, as the bottom three on the card (Rock Opera, Khabib & last year's winner of this race, Runninwild) all step up from Class 4 with the remaining six runners all dropping down from Class 2.
By winning this race last year, Runninwild is one of three (along with Tinto & Bay Breeze) former course and distance winners. As you'd expect from his place on the H4C report, Ready Freddie Go is a past Thirsk winner, having landed 4 of his 5 races over 5f, but he's one of just three (along with Rock Opera & Khabib) yet to win at 6f, as shown on Instant Expert...
And whilst the above doesn't necessarily guide me to a winner or even an E/W bet, it does mark the card for me regarding the likes of Pendleton (going/class/distance), Gulliver (going/class/distance), Fast And Loose (going/class/distance) and Khabib (going/course/distance) to the extent that I won't be backing any of them to buck the trend and win here and for simplicity's sake, I've removed them before looking at place stats...
...where aside from Ingra Tor's relatively poor record over 6f , there's little to cause me any discomfort. Interestingly, only last year's winner Runninwild runs off a mark lower than his last win, but that's probably because he's 0 from 6 since that win here a year ago. That said, his place data is very strong. He's drawn in stall 3 today and won from stall 4 last year, but our draw analyser suggests that those drawn highest have the best chances here...
...which allied to the PRB3 figures...
...might leave me with egg on my face if Gulliver and Fast And Loose go well from stalls 9 & 10! If we then consider how those races above were actually won, you'll probably not be too surprised to hear that leaders go well over a straight 6f on good ground, whilst hold-up horses have fared the worst as is generally the case in such contests...
...which sadly for me, again suggests that Fast And Loose possibly shouldn't have been discarded...
...whilst in draw order, we have...
...pointing to Fast And Loose being best placed on both draw and pace with feature horse Ready Freddie Go also looking useful.
Summary
The Pace/Draw data suggests that Fast And Loose is a major player, but he has only won once in fourteen attempts and represents poor value to me at 5/1. I've no doubt that he'll be in the mix with such a good pace/draw profile and the fact that he has made the frame in 9 of those 14 starts, but he'd be a placer again here for me and 5/1 is no E/W price for my liking.
He was beaten by Tinto last time out and despite being 4lbs worse off here, I think Tinto will beat him again and 9/2 is probably fair if unexciting. What I do like is the early 17/2 being offered about Brazen Bolt. He's better than recent results might suggest, he's down in class, had good place data on Instant Expert and his yard have a good record at this track. His trainer/jockey are in good collective form and have done well here at Thirsk together and 17/2 is a decent E/W price.
As for H4C report horse, Ready Freddie Go, I'm sure he'll give his best shot on his favoured track and could well get close to the frame at 9/1, but I'd much prefer him over 5f rather than today's trip.
Other Recent Posts by This Author:
- Tix Picks, Saturday 04/01/25
- Tix Picks, Friday 03/01/25
- Tix Picks, Thursday 02/01/25
- Tix Picks, Tuesday 31/12/24
- Tix Picks, Monday 30/12/24
