Racing Insights, Friday 15/12/2023

Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My fairly restrictive chosen settings for the H4C report...

...have sadly yielded no qualifiers, but your own chosen parameters might give more joy. Thankfully, this free report is, of course, backed up by our daily list of 'free' races...

• 12.40 Cheltenham
• 1.05 Doncaster
• 1.50 Cheltenham
• 2.15 Doncaster
• 8.30 Southwell

...from which I think I'll have a bash at the 1.50 Cheltenham, a 13-runner, Class 3, Mares' Handicap Chase over a left-handed 2m4½f on soft ground...

Only Mad About Sally managed to win last time out, but all bar the top four in the weights, La Malmason, Happy D'Ex, Royale Margeaux & Walk In Clover have won at least one of their last five and all thirteen have won at least one of their last seven. La Malmason, Walk In Clover, Eureka Creek, Game On For Glory, I Am Gonna Be and Pougne Aminta did all at least have top three finishes in their latest runs.

We have two runners (Royale Margeaux & Walk In Clover) dropping a class here with the former running for the first time since wind surgery. Moving the other direction and stepping up in class are Mad About Sally, I Am Gonna Be, Malaita, Brianna Rose, Game On for Glory and Pougne Aminta with the last two named now making just a second handicap outing, as do La Malmason and Happy D'Ex.

Happy D'Ex has been off the track the longest at 187 days, during which time she has moved yards from Gordon Elliot to be with new handler Sheila Lewis, whose last 29 runners have all been beaten with only two even making the frame. The rest of this field have all raced in the last seven weeks.

Walk In Clover is the only course and distance winner in the race, having landed a Grade 2 contest here in April off a mark just 4lbs lower than today, whilst Malaita won a 2m4½f hurdle here on the same day. In fact, only Royale Margeaux, Game On For Glory, Mad About Sally and Brianna rose have yet to score over a similar trip to this one, whilst Instant Expert tells us...

...that this is a fairly inexperienced bunch of chasers, but that Lilith has strung together some decent efforts over fences to date...

She tends to want to be at the head of affairs and has gone well enough to be able to hang on for a place in 9 of 15 starts over fences (inc 3 wins, the latest of which was off today's mark), but she might not have it all her own way as the pace profiles from the field's last four outings...

...suggest that Malaita and Pougne Aminta might want to keep her company upfront and our Pace Analyser says that this would be the ideal approach here...

Summary

There's not much evidence of it above, but I think the main players here are going to be Grade 2 course and distance winner Walk In Clover, LTO winner Mad About Sally, course winner Malaita and the Irish challenger La Malmason who was third last time out to a subsequent Grade 1 runner-up. These look to be the best horses in the race and this is sadly reflected in the 6.30pm market where they are best-priced at 4/1, 7/1, 11/2 and 3/1.

I expect this to be a fairly tight contest, but if pushed for a winner here, I'd take the 4/1 about Walk In Clover with Mad About Sally a real E/W contender.

From the evidence we did have above, Lilith was the standout for me and I think she's better than her current 20/1 price ticket. She's thoroughly consistent and I'm happy to put her last effort down to needing a run and at 20's she could well be a nice E/W play, especially as most firms are paying four places and Sky go to five!

Other Recent Posts by This Author:

• Racing Insights, Saturday 07/09/24
• Racing Insights, Friday 06/09/24
• Racing Insights, Thursday 05/09/24
• Racing Insights, Wednesday 04/09/24
• Racing Insights, Tuesday 03/09/24