Racing Insights, Friday 23/08/24

Friday's free feature, the Horses for Courses (H4C) report does exactly what it says on the tin ie it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track and is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting and as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but as ever please refer to our User Guide for further information!

My own settings (you get to choose your own parameters) for the H4C report...

...are quite restrictive and have produced no qualifiers...

Thankfully, our daily feature is always supplemented by a number of 'free' racecards...

• 2.10 Newmarket
• 2.25 York
• 3.45 Ffos Las
• 4.30 Newmarket
• 5.50 Goodwood
• 7.12 Killarney

...the highest rated of which is the 2.25 York, a 9-runner, Group 2 contest for horses aged 3 or over. The going is expected to be good firm and the trip is a left-handed 2m 78yds after a 22 yard rail adjustment...

Al Nayyir hasn't raced in the UK for almost four years since his debut at Kempton, but has won two of his last eight in France. Alsakib won last time out and has won three of his last seven. Gregory made the frame last time out for a fifth defeat on the bounce since completing a hat-trick in the Queen's Vase at Ascot in June '23. Point Lonsdale was third in the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud last time out and won the Ormonde Stakes at Chester in May on his last UK outing.

Quickthorn won the Gr1 Goodwood Cup last August, but has failed to impress in his three runs since finishing 6th of 7 in this race last year, then last of 5 and 4th of 8 in two lower class races. Tashkan won a Class 2 handicap at Chester last September and came within a length of landing the Cesarewitch a fortnight later, but has been disappointing this term, going down by 32L and 10l in his two starts.

Vauban won a 16-runner Class 2 handicap at Ascot in June '23 and then a Group 3 contest at Naas seven weeks later and has made the frame in a couple of group 2 races this season already. Night Sparkle won a trio of handicaps back to back last summer and has been a runner-up in three of his four starts this year. Align The Stars comes here off the back of three handicap successes, but will step up in both class and trip today.

Al Nayyir has been gelded since his last run and also makes a yard debut for Tom Clover, meaning this will be his fourth yard debut in ten races! The 5yo mare Night Sparkle receives a 3lbs weight allowance here and Align The Stars receives a more than useful 12lbs as the race's only 3 yr old.

Alsakib was a Group 3 winner here at York on his last outing and of his rivals, only Quickthorn has won over this trip, scoring over course and distance under today's jockey Tom Marquand in this very race in 2022, as seen on Instant Expert...

...where Alsakib is probably the standout overall, but Point Lonsdale does have those three Class 1 wins to his name. Tashkan, Vauban, and Night Sparkle have struggled to win top-flight races, whilst the first two of that trio look the weakest on that graphic, but Vauban does have this knack of making the frame, which means I'm not ruling him out of my thoughts just yet...

Over a race of this distance, I wouldn't expect the draw to be a massively deciding factor, but runners in stall 1 have a ridiculously high win ration in comparison to the rest of the stalls...

...landing almost a quarter of those races above. The pace stats for those races above aren't entirely conclusive either, but horses running in mid-division have fared the best, whilst those setting the pace have had a target on their backs...

If we look at how this field have approached their most recent outings, it's difficult to assume who might be setting the tempo today, as all bar Vauban and Alsakib have an average pace score of 3.00 (prominent) or higher!

Summary

I think that seven of the nine might get involved in a bit of a bunfight for the lead at some point and this might lead to some wilting under the pressure, opening the door for a late run from Vauban and/or Alsakib, both of whom are more than capable of making the frame.

As for those seeking to set the pace, Night Sparkle and Align the Stars both scored well on Instant Expert, but in races like this, the cream usually rises to the top and I think that Point Lonsdale is the best horse in the race, even if the stats above don't back me up and for me, he's definitely in my top three today.

I'd then take two of Vauban, Alsakib, Night Sparkle and Align The Stars and it's the latter I'm ruling out first. Yes, he's in great form, but steps up in trip and this is a far tougher proposition than a Class 2 handicap. He's only 3 yrs old and bigger/better days are on his horizon, but probably not today.

Night Sparkle looks like the perennial bridesmaid and might struggle back amongst male company, so I'm dropping her here too, leaving me with Point Lonsdale as my best in race and Vauban/Alsakib as my possible placers, so let's check the market at 4.50pm Thursday...

Point Lonsdale isn't a surprising favourite here and he's pretty much about the price I expected (I'd jotted 2/1 to 5/2 on my pad). Vauban looks terribly short for a horse that rarely wins under these conditions, but Alsakib is very interesting from an E/W perspective at 10/1.

Other Recent Posts by This Author:

• Tix Picks, Thursday 03/10/24
• Tix Picks, Wednesday 02/10/24
• Tix Picks, Tuesday 01/10/24
• Tix Picks, Monday 30/09/24
• Tix Picks, Saturday 28/09/24