Racing Insights

Racing Insights, Monday 15/01/24

Monday’s free feature of the day is the pace tab for all races. This is available to all free registered users of Geegeez and gives huge insight into which runners might be most or least disadvantaged by their early positions in each race.

The free races of the day on Monday are...

  • 12.50 Lingfield
  • 12.55 Punchestown
  • 1.50 Lingfield
  • 4.30 Wolverhampton

It's not a great day of racing in the UK, with twenty-eight of the thirty races rated as Class 5 or 6 alongside a pair of Class 4's at Hereford. Of the three free UK racecards, the latter seems to have the greatest spread of pace profiles (more on this shortly), so we're off to the 4.30 Wolverhampton, an 8-runner, Class 6, 4yo+ Classified Stakes over a left-handed 7f on standard tapeta...

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None of these managed to win last time out, in fact none of them have won any of their last seven outings. Hawajes, Billy Mcgarry and Vivency have all lost nine in a row, but the other five are on longer losing runs that than, although Big Narstie was a runner-up (beaten by a neck) last week and Rebel Redemption was a runner-up beaten by 0.75 lengths on Boxing Day with Say Grace in third a further half length back.

The field all carry 9-9 here, which means that Big Narstie and Vivency (both rated 50) are best off at the weights, but the lowest-rated horses, Fragrance and Say Grace are only assessed as vbeing 6lbs worse.

All six raced at Class 6 last time out and all bar Fragrance (off 122 days ) and Vivency (199 days) have raced in the last four weeks. Merry Secret and Vivency have both already won over today's trip elsewhere and Rebel Redemption is a two-time victor over 6f on this track, but only the 5yr old mare Say Grace has won over course and distance, when landing a Class 6 seller 48 weeks ago.

As you'd expect, there's not much to see on the win side of Instant Expert...

...but Big Narstie probably shades it, whilst Say Grace looks the pick on the place stats...

In similar races here at Wolverhampton over the last five years, horses drawn in stalls 3 to 6 seem to have fared best from a draw perspective, whilst those racing prominently have fared best from the pace side of the equation.

And this is backed up by the pace/draw heat map for those races...

...which shows the importance of pace. We know that Say Grace, Billy Mcgarry, Big Narstie and Hawajes will occupy stalls 3 to 6, but who will race prominently? Well,that's where the featyre of the day, the Pace tab comes into its own, as we can show you at a glance how any field has approached its last four races and for this race, it looks like this...

...where Rebel Redemption looks like the front-runner with Say Grace and Billy Mcgarry the prominent chasers, although Big Narstie also has two prominent runs from his last three, incluing LTO which was the best run by any of these runners for a very long time!

We can put those runners into draw order as follows...

...which puts Hawajes as the weakest of the four occupying the best draw.

Summary

Big Narstie comes here off the best recent run of the field, he's likely to race prominently again and has a decent draw. He is however, an 11/10 shot at 7.30pm on Sunday evening and for a horse with little experience of Wolverhampton and on a long losing run, too short for my liking. You'd need deep pockets and plenty of resilience to make decent money from such a bet.

Don't get me wrong, he's probably the one to beat, but I'm more keen on taking the 17/2 about Say Grace on an E/W basis, I just feel that's better value for me, whilst the 10/1 offered by Bet365 about Billy Mcgarry might prove to be generous.

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