The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.
This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...
- 3.45 Windsor
- 3.50 Gowran Park
- 4.10 Musselburgh
- 8.00 Kempton
- 8.30 Kempton
The highest rated of the UK races above also has an interesting pace profile, so that's where I'm headed. The race itself is the 4.10 Musselburgh, a 9-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ fillies flat handicap over a right-handed 7f on good/good to soft ground. The card looks like this...
...whilst the average pace profile of the runners based on their last four outings suggests that Glorious Angel and Mubhijah from stalls 2 and 4 might well set the tempo of the contest...
The latter of that pair is the only LTO winner in the field, having finally got her nose in front after three successive runner-up finishes. She'd actually made the frame in seven of eight races before that resounding six length victory at Carlisle a month ago, making her the form horse in the pack. Elsewhere, only Glorious Angel and Rock Melody are winless in seven or more, whilst Sibyl Charm is a five-race maiden.
That said, it won't be as easy for Mubhijah here, as she's up two classes here, whilst Shades of Summer, Mersea and Lady Mojito all step up one level. Conversely, the top two in the weights, Kitai and Glorious Angel both drop down a class and bottom weight Biplane is down two classes after running in a Listed event at Redcar nine days ago. That gap from her last race is the same as Mersea's nine-day break and they're the two turned back out quickest.
Most of the field have, in fairness, raced in the last month or so, but Lady Mojito has been off for two months and Sibyl Charm hasn't raced for almost fifteen weeks, during which she has moved from Joseph Patrick O'Brien's yard and now makes a debut for Iain Jardine, whilst Rock Melody wears cheekpieces for the first time.
Sibyl Charm is, of course, still a maiden so obviously has no wins at neither trip nor track and Kitai, Mubhijah and Mersea have also yet to win over this distance, whilst Rock Melody is the sole previous Musselburgh winner, having raced here five times already, all over 5f, finishing 43112.
Whilst this is a 3yo+ race, only three of the field (Shades of Summer, Rock Melody & Biplane) are actually older than three and as a result are 2lbs worse off at the weights, due to the 3yo weight for age allowance afforded to the other half dozen.
Instant Expert says that none of these are perfect standout candidates, but that Kitai might well enjoy the expected conditions...
...although she is 5lbs higher than her last win. Glorious Angel seems to have struggled to win on similar going with a similar story for Rock Melody on both Class and trip, whilst the place data for the field looks like this...
...where I still have concerns about both Glorious Angel and Rock Melody over today's trip. The former is expected to be one of the pacemakers according tot he average pace profile I posted earlier and she's drawn low here in stall 2, but I don't expect her draw to give her any advantage or disadvantage, based on how over 100 past similar contests have gone...
...which leads us back to where we started and the daily feature, the Pace tab. I showed you that the average pace profile over four races for this field looked like this...
...and that prediction is based on the following...
...and those individual races suggest that both Lady Mojito and Sibyl Charm might actually race a little further back than their average indicated, giving the top two on the chart an almost free run early on, so let's check how those 100+ races (that we used for the draw stats) above have gone re: pace...
...and that's pretty clear, isn't it?
Summary
Glorious Angel and Mubhijah from stalls 2 and 4 look like being handed a soft early opportunity to dictate events from the front and the latter is definitely the form horse irrespective of a two-step up in class and Mubhijah would be my one to beat here. I'm not surprised that she's the early 5/2 favourite. That price isn't particularly generous, but it's probably about right, all things considered.
Glorious Angel should be able to hang on for a place, but at 11/2 isn't the kind of price I place E/W bets at, but I expect her to be in the mix. Elsewhere I like the look of Kitai and Mersea and with them being priced up at 4/1 and 9/1 with Hills, the latter would be the one I'd consider for a small E/W punt.
Other Recent Posts by This Author:
- Tix Picks, Saturday 04/01/25
- Tix Picks, Friday 03/01/25
- Tix Picks, Thursday 02/01/25
- Tix Picks, Tuesday 31/12/24
- Tix Picks, Monday 30/12/24
