Racing Insights

Racing Insights, Saturday 22/06/24

Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC report look like this...

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...and they have generated the following UK runners...

30-day form...

and course 1-year form...

...for me to consider in addition to our selection of daily 'free' races...

  • 2.45 Newmarket
  • 3.05 Ascot
  • 4.35 Newmarket
  • 6.25 Ayr
  • 8.oo Lingfield
  • 8.45 Haydock

Again, I'll leave Ascot to the experts on the site, but there is a nice-looking race North of the border on the 'free' list tomorrow evening in the shape of the 6.25 Ayr, a 9-runner, Listed race for fillies and mares aged 3 or over. The trip is a straight 5f on good to firm ground and here’s the card…

Only one of the field, Pepsi Cat, won last time out for a fifth win in her last eight starts, but she’s up from Class 3 here today, so I expect she’ll find this a bit tougher, as will Origintrail who is also up two classes, whilst Conservationist is up one class. Origintrail did make the frame on her last run, but she’s now winless in twelve outings.

Three other runners (Conservationist, Silent Words and So Majestic) have all gone more than four races since their last win and come here on losing streaks of 9, 9 and 10 races respectively, whilst Gaenari is a nine-race maiden and she wears cheekpieces for the first time here; Silent Words will be blinkered for the first time too.

All runners have raced in the last one to five weeks aside from Graceful Thunder who has been off the track for over three months, whilst all bar Azure Blue, Conservationist, Origintrail and Gaenari (obviously) have already won over today’s trip. Only Beautiful Diamond has won here at Ayr, though, landing a similar course and distance Listed race last September.

Relevant form via Instant Expert looks like this…

...where Azure Blue and Beautiful Diamond look best suited for the rask in hand, but we shouldn't ignore Pepsi Cat's half a dozen wins over this trip, especially as she has been in the frame in six of her eight defeats for a very impressive place record over 5f...

Again Azure Blue and Beautiful Diamond stand out with Pepsi Cat a clear third best on the data above. This trio will be berthed fairly closely together in stalls 4, 5 and 7 over a course and distance where the PRB3 scores suggest that stalls 3 to 7 are the best place to be...



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...further increasing the chances of the Instant Expert trio of making the frame.If we then look at what tactics would work best here, then there's no standout running style that has outperformed the others, but leaders have made the frame most often and hold-up horses have really struggled to win, which based on this field's most recent outings...

is clearly better news for Beautiful Diamond than it is for Blue Azure from our Instant Expert trio and better news for Graceful Thunder than it is for Origintrail overall.

Summary

Pepsi Cat is the ‘form’ horse, winning LTO and five of her last eight, whilst only Azure Blue, Beautiful Diamond and Graceful Thunder have won any of their last four races.

Of this quartet, Graceful Thunder was the weaker on Instant Expert and appeared to be the ‘worst’ drawn of the four, so despite being the likely pacemaker, I fear she might just miss out on the places.

Azure Blue’s pace score is a worry here, so that could stop her winning, whilst Pepsi Cat is up two classes here and whilst she’ll undoubtedly give her best again, I think she’ll also come up short and this pair will probably have to scrap it out for minor honours behind Beautiful Diamond who has ticked more boxes than others.

No odds were available at 4pm on Friday, but I'd hope to get an E/W backable price about Pepsi Cat in addition to fair odds about Beautiful Diamond.

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