Racing Insights, Thursday 01/06/23
Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.
It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.
IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.
We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...
- 4.55 Fairyhouse
- 5.05 Roscommon
- 5.40 Market Rasen
- 5.50 Carlisle
- 6.00 Fairyhouse
- 6.50 Carlisle
If truth be told, I don't particularly like any of the 'free' races, so I'm going off piste by looking at the highest rated flat race of the day, the 4.20 Ripon, an 8-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ flat handicap over a right-handed 1m2f on good ground that will be quicker in places...
Both Pisanello and Cockalorum won last time out and all bar Society Red and Baryshnikov have won at least one of their last six outings, although the latter ran really well to fin.sh third recently in a race we covered in this column. In his favour here, is that he's down in class, as is top weight Imperial Sands, but Cockalorum, Nigwa, Tarbaan and Society Red all step up in grade.
Cockalorum has been off the track the longest, but 42 days is hardly an eternity and shouldn't affect his running here. All bar Imperial Sands, Pisanello and Tarbaan have already scored over course and distance, but the latter has at least won at today's trip, whilst Instant Expert says that all bar Imperial Sands have won on good ground and that only half of the field have scored at Class 3...
...and the inference from above is that we should be focusing our efforts on this group...
...although Cockalorum's 0 from 9 at this grade is a concern, as is Pisanello's 0 from 4 at the trip. That concern re: Pisanello isn't really alleviated by place form either...
...but I won't rule him nor Cockalorum out at this stage. My five runners are spread across the stalls from box 1 to 7 for a track/trip that hasn't really suited those drawn highest...
...whilst the winners of those races above have tended to be those up with the pace...
So, the draw hasn't been too kind to Cockalorum/Nigwa there, but what about the pace? Are any of our five willing to set the fractions here? Well, we can only guess / make a reasoned assumption and to do this, we can look at the field's most recent four races...
...and that's better news for Cockalorum, but not great for Baryshnikov or Pisanello.
Summary
I shortlisted five and none really tick all the boxes for me here. In draw order...
Pisanello is up in class and weight and might get outpaced early on.
Baryshnikov might leave himself too much to do as he did earlier this week, but he did run well when he got going and is now down in class.
Tarbaan is neither here nor there on the above, but looks less exposed under these conditions, will like the ground and the trip and gets weight from most of his rivals. Mid draw & mid-pace, probably more a placer than a winner.
Cockalorum has a poor record at Class 3 and doesn't have the best draw and although he won last time out, is now up in class and weight
Nigwa is second on the shortlist's pace chart, but all three discarded horses will probably be ahead of him in the early stages, he has the worst of the draw of my shortlisted five and if he runs like he did last time, will have to pass most of the field to win.
Honestly, any of the five could win this. Its not a great race, but it's an evenly-matched open contest that even the three discards could run well in.
Do I want to back any of these to win? No, but if I wanted to put a couple of quid down for an interest, I think I'd back Tarbaan at 11/1 E/W and if pushed I'd say Baryshnikov or Pisanello, but without any real conviction.
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