Racing Insights, Thursday 04/05/23 geegeez.co.uk

Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

4.30 Redcar
4.40 Ayr
5.45 Chelmsford
5.55 Tipperary
7.55 Tipperary

...which are fairly uninspiring featuring two Irish races and UK flat handicaps at Class 6 and Class 5 plus a UK Class 5 Novice A/W contest. That said, every race has a winner to be found and the best of the bunch looks like being the 4.40 Ayr, an 8-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ flat handicap over a left handed 7f on good to firm ground...

No LTO winners on display, but Classy Al was a runner-up and won two starts ago, Novak has been secind in each of his last two and Judgment Call, Lilikoi and Drakeholes do at least have a win on their five-race form line, whilst Rogue Force and Merricourt are each unplaced in their last seven outings.

Merricourt is also up in class here, which willmake life even harder, but both Classy Al and bottom weight Global Humor do at least have the respite of a drop in class. Classy Al is noted as a fast finisher and he's the only one without a run in the last seven weeks or so, as he returns from a seven month break.

Rogue Force will be hoping that a change of scenery inspires him into some form on his debut for Mike Smith and like all of his rivals, he has actually already won over a similar trip to this one. Half of the field (Judgment Call, Classy Al, Merricourt & Global Humor) are also course and distance winners.

Instant Expert doesn't add much meat to those bones above, but does point out that Merricourt, Novak and to some extent, Classy Al have toiled at Class 5, whilst Judgment Call has a poor win record here at Ayr. Elsewhere this trip hasn't tended to suit Novak, Merricourt or Global Humor, which is a shame for the latter, as he has reasonable stats across the board despite being an unreliable type...

Interestingly Global Humor is some 10lbs below his last win. Mind you, he has lost 19 in a row since scoring in September 2021, so he might not break that sequence here. As there's not much green above, let's have a look at who might be contenders for the frame via the place stats...

Again, Global Humor scores well, but his run of form is a real concern and it's Lilikoi who catches the eye here. He'll relish the quick ground and both class and trip are ideal for him. He's drawn low here in stall 2, with only the returning Classy Al inside him and the draw stats from past contests here say that whilst a high draw is preferable, your stall allocation shouldn't be the reason for a defeat...

And those two drawn lowest will probably just sit in and wait for a late run, if their last few outings are anything to go by...

...whilst it's highly likely that Novak will make a run for the line from the word go. A further look back at those races above for the draw stats says that leaders make the frame more often than any other running style but are prone to getting caught leading to a dismal win record...

Summary

It's not the best races I've ever looked at, it's not even the best race I've looked at this week and I've no real standout pick as my winner and as such won't be backing any to win.

I might however have a small E/W play on Lilikoi, if I can get a decent price about, but as of 2.50pm on Wednesday (early dart today, I've to get to a function!) there were no odds available; I'll update later tonight.

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